Preseason Rankings

[El_Diablo]

The AP poll has not yet been released, but the coaches' poll was released today, with Duke clocking in at #6 in the nation:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

The top five were UNC, UK, OSU, UConn, and Syracuse. Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high. But looking at the teams ranked after us, it is hard to find any (at this point) who clearly deserve to be ranked higher, so I think #6 is about right for us.

[superdave]

The AP poll has not yet been released, but the coaches' poll was released today, with Duke clocking in at #6 in the nation:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

The top five were UNC, UK, OSU, UConn, and Syracuse. Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high. But looking at the teams ranked after us, it is hard to find any (at this point) who clearly deserve to be ranked higher, so I think #6 is about right for us.

How good is Florida likely to be this year? Chad Ford has Brad Beal as #4 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/results/top100/_/year/2012)on the draft board right now. If he plays up to that potential, they have some other nice pieces in Boynton and Murphy and could make some noise.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Only 2 ACC teams in and only 2 others getting votes...bleah.

[Bluedog]

Maui field...

#6 Duke
#9 Memphis
#13 Kansas
#18 Michigan
#20 UCLA

Stacked! Definitely a good early season test in addition to @OSU.

[Kedsy]

Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high.

It only seems high if you look at what we lost, which I don't think is the best way to look at it. Frankly, if you look at it that way, why is Kentucky #2? They lost their entire rotation except for two guys.

If you look at what we have, I agree with you that #6 is about right for us. If I were ranking I'd put us at #5, but it's hard to quibble with one spot in a pre-season poll.

[SCMatt33]

I was surprised to see Kansas so high. With 3 freshman only partially qualifying, they have absolutely no depth. Considering all they lost without replacements, 13 seems high.

[Wander]

I was surprised to see Kansas so high. With 3 freshman only partially qualifying, they have absolutely no depth. Considering all they lost without replacements, 13 seems high.

Agreed. Kansas easily jumped out at me as the most overrated team.

On the other side, I think Baylor is going to be awesome, and would put them around #5. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Memphis win Maui and hang around the top five for most of the year.

[El_Diablo]

It only seems high if you look at what we lost, which I don't think is the best way to look at it. Frankly, if you look at it that way, why is Kentucky #2? They lost their entire rotation except for two guys.

If you look at what we have, I agree with you that #6 is about right for us. If I were ranking I'd put us at #5, but it's hard to quibble with one spot in a pre-season poll.

Yes, clearly the returning players are what matters here. I am not really surprised at where we are ranked...perhaps I should have said it's somewhat amazing that a team--any team--could successfully reload after losing players who had garnered those types of varied individual honors and accomplishments. I mean, taking a step back and thinking about it for a minute, it's amazing that a program can take that kind of hit and have the depth and incoming talent to be poised to challenge for a national title.

The same goes for Kentucky, although necessarily not to the same degree, because they still return three starters from a Final Four team: Jones, Miller, and Lamb are back and were three of their top four players last year.

[Kedsy]

The same goes for Kentucky, although necessarily not to the same degree, because they still return three starters from a Final Four team: Jones, Miller, and Lamb are back and were three of their top four players last year.

Well, since they had three guys go in the NBA draft and Lamb didn't even start, we could quibble about whether they return three of their best four guys. But your basic point still rings true.

[johnb]

The AP poll has not yet been released, but the coaches' poll was released today, with Duke clocking in at #6 in the nation:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

The top five were UNC, UK, OSU, UConn, and Syracuse. Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high. But looking at the teams ranked after us, it is hard to find any (at this point) who clearly deserve to be ranked higher, so I think #6 is about right for us.

Since I now fold Syracuse into the ACC, that gives us 3 of the top 6, which is pretty sweet.

[gumbomoop]

I think Baylor is going to be awesome....

What jumps out at me is how way, way long Baylor is. Their inside [4/5] options include P. Jones III [6'11" and lottery?], A. Jones [6'10" Sr], J'M Morgan [6'11" Sr]. Not to mention 3/4 guys, Q Acy [6'7" Sr, remember him?] and Q Miller [6'9" Fr, remember him?]. Not to mention D Bello [he of the 56" vertical, or something].

I would be delighted to see Baylor in UNC's bracket come Madness.

Wouldn't mind seeing UCLA tangle with the Heels, either. Pretty long, too, the Bruins: revenge-minded Wears [assuming they're actually mean enough], R Nelson [definitely mean enough], J Smith [a load, at times].

I'm inclined to nudge Baylor into pre-top-10, and UCLA much closer to top-10 than its 20 slot. Too bad these teams can't steal one of those Fla guards, of whom there are so many.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Since I now fold Syracuse into the ACC, that gives us 3 of the top 6, which is pretty sweet.
I'm not gonna do that until Boeheim suffers a conference tourney outside of MSG.

[Bob Green]

Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high.


If you look at what we have, I agree with you that #6 is about right for us.

I agree with Kedsy that we should be looking at what we have; however, there are some questions re what we have. Specifically:

1. Who are our big time scorers? Not a single player on the current roster has previously averaged double-digits scoring. Curry did it at Liberty but that doesn't count in my book. Both Curry and Dawkins must be double digit scorers this season.
2. Do we have an ACC quality point guard? With the exception of last year with Kyrie Irving, this has been a year in year out discussion point since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004. Yes, Jon Scheyer was awesome, but there is not a Jon Scheyer on this year's roster. Can Seth Curry make the transition?
3. Can the Plumlee brothers be a consistent force inside? I've stated it before and I'll state it again, we need Miles and Mason to solve the little issues, which are preventing them from being consistent players: dumb fouls, poor free throw shooting and being weak with the ball in the low post. I'm confident Ryan Kelly will be solid, but we need the Brothers Plumlee to be right beside him playing consistent basketball night in and night out.
4. How good are our freshmen? Austin Rivers may be a superstar or he might be average. There are no guarantees. Quinn Cook could solve our point guard concerns, but is he really healthy? And is he ready? Moreover, can he defend? Alex Murphy is a guy I expect to challenge to play a lot of minutes on the wing, once he adapts to the speed of the game. How long will that take? If you subtract the five freshmen, this team has no depth; therefore, more than one freshman will be required to step-up and be a solid contributor.

I'm simultaneously excited and nervous as the season rapidly approaches. There are lots of questions heading into the season and I intend to enjoy watching the team answer those questions.

[uh_no]

I agree with Kedsy that we should be looking at what we have; however, there are some questions re what we have. Specifically:

1. Who are our big time scorers? Not a single player on the current roster has previously averaged double-digits scoring. Curry did it at Liberty but that doesn't count in my book. Both Curry and Dawkins must be double digit scorers this season. I think the lack of this point is almost exclusively due to the fact that we had 3 of the most prolific scoring guards in the country over the past 2 years (s,s and s). I have no doubt that seth would be capable of putting up 16+ a game if he weren't waiting in the shadows. That's just a personal opinion, and one might not agree, but seeing seth curry let loose this year is one of the things I'm most excited about this season.


2. Do we have an ACC quality point guard? With the exception of last year with Kyrie Irving, this has been a year in year out discussion point since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004. Yes, Jon Scheyer was awesome, but there is not a Jon Scheyer on this year's roster. Can Seth Curry make the transition?
just ask the one guy on here, he keeps claiming austin rivers is hands down the best guard in the country!
While his potential is exciting, this is probably also my biggest worry for this year. I am hopeful though, as seth spent all year 2 years ago watching how jon did things, and likely spent a lot of time last year learning from kyrie. I think he will be prepared. he might not have gaudy assist to TO numbers, but he's gonna score, and i think the triple guard threat combined with the apparent emergence of kelly will open up the floor enough that curry will do just fine


3. Can the Plumlee brothers be a consistent force inside? I've stated it before and I'll state it again, we need Miles and Mason to solve the little issues, which are preventing them from being consistent players: dumb fouls, poor free throw shooting and being weak with the ball in the low post. I'm confident Ryan Kelly will be solid, but we need the Brothers Plumlee to be right beside him playing consistent basketball night in and night out. miles' foul totals in the scrimmage were not promising. It will certainly help that this year we seem to have 5 guys (at least) that we can play at those 2 positions....honestly, I'd just be happy if the 2 plumlees hold their own on defense, not hedging on the double team and giving up the easy points. Any offense we get out of them is great. I expect them to be very good rebounders

4. How good are our freshmen? Austin Rivers may be a superstar or he might be average. There are no guarantees. Quinn Cook could solve our point guard concerns, but is he really healthy? And is he ready? Moreover, can he defend? Alex Murphy is a guy I expect to challenge to play a lot of minutes on the wing, once he adapts to the speed of the game. How long will that take? If you subtract the five freshmen, this team has no depth; therefore, more than one freshman will be required to step-up and be a solid contributor.

I'm simultaneously excited and nervous as the season rapidly approaches. There are lots of questions heading into the season and I intend to enjoy watching the team answer those questions.

I think its silly to take away the freshmen, well, austin at least, seeing as there is no chance he doesn't play. so taking him with the upper classmen, we effectively have 4 big guys and 4 guards. This is the same distribution that we had when we won the national title 2 years ago, and seeing as coach generally settles into an 8 man (or so) rotation, i would hardly be worried about our depth

[Bob Green]

I think its silly to take away the freshmen, well, austin at least, seeing as there is no chance he doesn't play. so taking him with the upper classmen, we effectively have 4 big guys and 4 guards. This is the same distribution that we had when we won the national title 2 years ago, and seeing as coach generally settles into an 8 man (or so) rotation, i would hardly be worried about our depth

I have to disagree and question your math. Upper classmen are juniors and seniors, so Austin Rivers plus the upper classmen equals 3 big guys and 3 guards. Six players equals a team with serious depth concerns. I believe sophomore Tyler Thornton will see significant action so that takes the rotation to seven, which is the same as 2007 (wow that's a scary thought).

So I'll reiterate my original point, more than one freshman will need to step-up and be a solid contributor.

[uh_no]

I have to disagree and question your math. Upper classmen are juniors and seniors, so Austin Rivers plus the upper classmen equals 3 big guys and 3 guards. Six players equals a team with serious depth concerns. I believe sophomore Tyler Thornton will see significant action so that takes the rotation to seven, which is the same as 2007 (wow that's a scary thought).

So I'll reiterate my original point, more than one freshman will need to step-up and be a solid contributor.

While we disagree on the technical meaning of upperclassmen, that's not really the point

Perhaps you are ignoring Josh, but with austin and no other freshmen, we have 4 guards and 4 bigs.....same as our typical rotation in 2010. Now I think its silly to think that one can judge the quality of a team based on the number of people which they can use in their rotation, but I staunchly disagree that we need any freshman other than austin to step up to be successful.

I mean its very subjective what one considers as "needs to be successful" so it makes sense that two people can disagree, and since its all speculative, and in the end we will probably see contributions from some of the other freshmen, so it will effectively be irrelevant.

[Kedsy]

So I'll reiterate my original point, more than one freshman will need to step-up and be a solid contributor.

Or more than one sophomore. If Josh and Tyler both step up we'd have an 8-man rotation without any freshmen other than Austin.

Putting that aside, by the end of the season, most Duke teams have only gone seven deep. The difference between 2007 and most Duke teams (including this one) is the 2007 seven man rotation included three frosh and three sophs (and no seniors). A rotation of one senior, four juniors, one sophomore, and one freshman (which is what we'd have in your example) would not resemble 2007 in any meaningful way.

I expect two, maybe three freshmen to be playing rotation minutes by the end of the season (Austin, Alex, maybe Quinn). But if it's just Austin plus Tyler steps up, I believe we'll still be OK. More than OK, I expect a rotation of Austin/Seth/Andre/Miles/Mason/Ryan/Tyler would be a Final Four contender.

[Ultrarunner]

I agree with Kedsy that we should be looking at what we have; however, there are some questions re what we have. Specifically:

1. Who are our big time scorers? Not a single player on the current roster has previously averaged double-digits scoring. Curry did it at Liberty but that doesn't count in my book. Both Curry and Dawkins must be double digit scorers this season.
By distributing the shots that Kyle and Nolan put up last year, Curry at a minimum, and likely Dawkins as well will be double digit scorers. I expect Austin will be too but I worry a bit about his efficiency. Kelly certainly looks to fill that role as well. Either of the Plumlees may surprise with Miles being the most promising. I'm not too worried about our ability to score points though efficiency will suffer early in the season.


2. Do we have an ACC quality point guard? With the exception of last year with Kyrie Irving, this has been a year in year out discussion point since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004. Yes, Jon Scheyer was awesome, but there is not a Jon Scheyer on this year's roster. Can Seth Curry make the transition?
This is the big question for the season. I have very high hopes for Seth but I try to temper that with a realistic look at the position. Point is the most challenging position on the court and especially so at Duke. Seth has a very high basketball IQ; can he convert that and his physical tools to the point and be effective?

A second question about the point guard position is whether the dynamics surrounding Austin breakdown the position from within the team. Austin is used to running the show but in HS, not at an NCAA elite level. Will he fill his role or try to do too much?


3. Can the Plumlee brothers be a consistent force inside? I've stated it before and I'll state it again, we need Miles and Mason to solve the little issues, which are preventing them from being consistent players: dumb fouls, poor free throw shooting and being weak with the ball in the low post. I'm confident Ryan Kelly will be solid, but we need the Brothers Plumlee to be right beside him playing consistent basketball night in and night out.
Miles already is showing signs of having turned the corner. I still remember the 2010 season after Zoubs fouled out in the Baylor game that was just recounted in the Player Profile for Miles and last year I jokingly referred to the “Zoubek Effect” which roughly translates to a maligned player who, statistically (plus/minus), is actually much more valuable than he appears. Defensively, he’s the best big on the team and has learned to play defense without leaving the ground. Miles does not worry me.

Mason, on the other hand, perplexes me (and, I’m sure, the coaching staff.) He has an incredibly high ceiling provided he’s willing to accept that he is a big man, not a guard. He’s already a pretty dominating rebounder but needs to gamble less on defense and develop some semblance of an offensive game that does not include wide open dunks.

Mason, in conjunction with Ryan, provides us with above average passers in the posts positions. That may end up being a very interesting if irregular part of the offensive game this year.


4. How good are our freshmen? Austin Rivers may be a superstar or he might be average. There are no guarantees. Quinn Cook could solve our point guard concerns, but is he really healthy? And is he ready? Moreover, can he defend? Alex Murphy is a guy I expect to challenge to play a lot of minutes on the wing, once he adapts to the speed of the game. How long will that take? If you subtract the five freshmen, this team has no depth; therefore, more than one freshman will be required to step-up and be a solid contributor.
And this is why I so like seniors. :) One or two will surprise, one or two will disappoint and the same person could fulfill both sides probably within minutes at some point this season. By the end of the season, Austin will be a known quantity – I think it will take him half the year to get the feel for the college game and the feel of having a very capable team around him. Does Alex step up? I certainly hope so. Quin too, if healthy, would be a very valuable addition to the rotation.


I'm simultaneously excited and nervous as the season rapidly approaches. There are lots of questions heading into the season and I intend to enjoy watching the team answer those questions.
Ditto, from the hinterlands.
And I’ll add:
5. How well can this team defend? It has the length and quickness at multiple positions to be really good but only if everybody buys into the concept. I think the interior will be solid with the Plumlees and Ryan. I think Seth has already demonstrated his ability at disrupting the other team with fast hands and good anticipation. So, who guards the wings? This isn’t Austin’s strong suit and Andre will be playing undersized on a regular basis though I thought he did well more often than he was credited for during the year.

[Bob Green]

...but I staunchly disagree that we need any freshman other than austin to step up to be successful.

Yeah, we can agree to disagree as time will tell. As far as Josh Hairston goes, I'm not ignoring him, I just can't figure out how he fits into the rotation. I sincerely hope he proves me wrong!

[Bob Green]

Putting that aside, by the end of the season, most Duke teams have only gone seven deep. The difference between 2007 and most Duke teams (including this one) is the 2007 seven man rotation included three frosh and three sophs (and no seniors). A rotation of one senior, four juniors, one sophomore, and one freshman (which is what we'd have in your example) would not resemble 2007 in any meaningful way.

I cannot disagree. Your points are solid. It's just this little itch I can't quite scratch that keeps telling me to maintain an even keel as the season approaches.

[uh_no]

maintain an even keel as the season approaches.

I never understood sailing metaphors metaphors.

[Bob Green]

Miles does not worry me.

I'm a huge Miles Plumlee fan just like I was a huge Brian Zoubek fan, so I hope Miles has as great a senior season as Brian did. Don't we all?

[Edouble]

...perhaps I should have said it's somewhat amazing that a team--any team--could successfully reload after losing players who had garnered those types of varied individual honors and accomplishments. I mean, taking a step back and thinking about it for a minute, it's amazing that a program can take that kind of hit and have the depth and incoming talent to be poised to challenge for a national title.


Eh... maybe in 1996.

Also, we've known all along that we'd lose Kyle and Nolan for this year, so it's not like the staff hasn't planned for it. We don't take years off in pursuing championships.

[magjayran]

I feel #6 is about right for where the team will end up in the final season poll. I wouldn't be shocked if we move down a few after a tough early schedule but then again we have a chance to move up a good bit as well. A solid ranking of #6 and a 2 seed that keeps us close to home in the tournament would put us in a pretty good place to make a run in the tournament. We always have a good shot at winning the ACC tourney of course so there's even an outside chance that we can sneak a #1 seed (especially if we beat UNC in the tournament) but that might be wishful thinking.

Either way this is going to be a fun year. I'm jonesing for some basketball right now.

[devildeac]

I feel #6 is about right for where the team will end up in the final season poll. I wouldn't be shocked if we move down a few after a tough early schedule but then again we have a chance to move up a good bit as well. A solid ranking of #6 and a 2 seed that keeps us close to home in the tournament would put us in a pretty good place to make a run in the tournament. We always have a good shot at winning the ACC tourney of course so there's even an outside chance that we can sneak a #1 seed (especially if we beat UNC in the tournament) but that might be wishful thinking.

Either way this is going to be a fun year. I'm jonesing for some basketball right now.

I'm jonesing for a win over Wake Forest for the first time in many years. Then, I'll be thinking about a win over VT. Then, the 1st scrimmage/exhibition game. ;-))

[davekay1971]

I'm jonesing for a win over Wake Forest for the first time in many years. Then, I'll be thinking about a win over VT. Then, the 1st scrimmage/exhibition game. ;-))

5-3 by sunset October 29. Go Duke!

THEN I can start diverting part (but only part) of my attention to the all important questions that will plague me for the remainder of 2011:
1) Can Austin Rivers be as good as advertised, and, if so, how much of a difference-maker can that be for us?
2) Can the Plumlees and Andre Dawkins find that all important consistency?
3) Will we be able to apply the kind of on-the-ball defensive pressure we want with a starting perimeter of Curry-Dawk-Rivers?
4) Will Ryan Kelly turn into the second coming of Danny Ferry (and if he does, does that mean Coach K surgically implanted a mean streak in him, and, if so, is that a violation of NCAA rules)?

[hooinblueville]

Good morning ladies and gentlemen,

My first post. The number 6 ranking is based more on Mike Krzyzewski than the returning team, that and the hype surrounding Austin. And, I think it's justified. Coach K gets the most out of his lineups. I do expect Duke to drop in the rankings somewhat before January just due to the fact that players who were supporting last year will have to lead this year. Until those players (Curry, Kelly and Miles P.) get used to that situation, Duke may lose a few early (tough schedule, especially in the Maui). Miles won't be a problem but he may be expected to handle 1-on-1 offensive duties which he is capable of but won't set the world on fire.

Where this outsider sees problems is defensively. Duke either plays great D or they don't make a big run in the NCAA's. I really wonder about the lineup. Does Duke go with a "big" team where Ryan Kelly plays the 3 or does Coach K settle with 3 guards, using Mason P. in a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5? If I'm coaching against Duke, I would test a 3 guard lineup but trying to post my tallest guard/wing inside to see if Austin Rivers is ready for the war. He will be in March but that's a long way off. If Ryan Kelly moves to the 3, teams will insert a quick wing or guard and run him around.

How well and when the Duke defense settles in and solves any problems will be the key to whether the team can hold a top 6 ranking or not. If Duke is still 6th or better by March, then the coaching staff will find a way to make a big push. I don't see a title this year but who knows, other teams could have injuries, attitude problems or tough seeding against the right cinderella which could pave the way to a final 4 for Duke.

UVA fan since 1976.

[CDu]

Good morning ladies and gentlemen,

My first post. The number 6 ranking is based more on Mike Krzyzewski than the returning team, that and the hype surrounding Austin. And, I think it's justified. Coach K gets the most out of his lineups. I do expect Duke to drop in the rankings somewhat before January just due to the fact that players who were supporting last year will have to lead this year. Until those players (Curry, Kelly and Miles P.) get used to that situation, Duke may lose a few early (tough schedule, especially in the Maui). Miles won't be a problem but he may be expected to handle 1-on-1 offensive duties which he is capable of but won't set the world on fire.

Welcome. I think the #6 ranking is in part due to Coach K, in part due to Rivers, in part due to the returning talent, and in part due to the lack of any clear cut alternatives. I mean, who would you put comfortably ahead of Duke at #6?


Where this outsider sees problems is defensively. Duke either plays great D or they don't make a big run in the NCAA's. I really wonder about the lineup. Does Duke go with a "big" team where Ryan Kelly plays the 3 or does Coach K settle with 3 guards, using Mason P. in a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5? If I'm coaching against Duke, I would test a 3 guard lineup but trying to post my tallest guard/wing inside to see if Austin Rivers is ready for the war. He will be in March but that's a long way off. If Ryan Kelly moves to the 3, teams will insert a quick wing or guard and run him around.

I don't think we'll see much (if any) lineups involving both Plumlees and Kelly on the floor together. We're too deep at the guard and wing spots and Kelly/Plumlee/Plumlee would likely have us a bit slow at the 4 and very slow at the 3. It'd also congest things on the offensive end. I think we'll see Dawkins a lot at the 3 with Murphy and/or Gbinije filling in the rest of the time there.

Also, I don't think most teams have a guard/wing who is comfortable posting up. UNC does. UVa might with Harrell. But most teams' wings are perimeter-oriented. I'd rather have a team try to post up Rivers than run their preferred offense. And remember - Rivers won't likely be guarding the "3." Dawkins (who has had lots of experience guarding Singler) and Murphy/Gbinije will be.


How well and when the Duke defense settles in and solves any problems will be the key to whether the team can hold a top 6 ranking or not. If Duke is still 6th or better by March, then the coaching staff will find a way to make a big push. I don't see a title this year but who knows, other teams could have injuries, attitude problems or tough seeding against the right cinderella which could pave the way to a final 4 for Duke.

Given how bad the ACC is likely to be, I don't think we'll see a lot of threat to Duke being in the top-6 by season's end. We're likely to pile up the wins in conference. We may lose 2 non-conference games early this year, but we should do pretty well in the ACC. And given the question marks with the rest of the teams after UNC, UK, OSU, and UConn, I don't see anyone jumping up and bumping us down to far.

[magjayran]

Good morning ladies and gentlemen,

Where this outsider sees problems is defensively. Duke either plays great D or they don't make a big run in the NCAA's. I really wonder about the lineup. Does Duke go with a "big" team where Ryan Kelly plays the 3 or does Coach K settle with 3 guards, using Mason P. in a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5? If I'm coaching against Duke, I would test a 3 guard lineup but trying to post my tallest guard/wing inside to see if Austin Rivers is ready for the war. He will be in March but that's a long way off. If Ryan Kelly moves to the 3, teams will insert a quick wing or guard and run him around.

How well and when the Duke defense settles in and solves any problems will be the key to whether the team can hold a top 6 ranking or not. If Duke is still 6th or better by March, then the coaching staff will find a way to make a big push. I don't see a title this year but who knows, other teams could have injuries, attitude problems or tough seeding against the right cinderella which could pave the way to a final 4 for Duke.

UVA fan since 1976.

While I know it's not completely out of the realm of possibility, I don't see Duke playing 2 power forwards anytime except as an experiment in a blowout of because something has gone terribly wrong. Coach K has gone to the three guard lineup plenty though so I expect to see that. If anyone is going to end up going against a taller guard it's going to be Dawkins who has decent enough height, great athleticism, and has built some good muscle at this point. Austin has ok height but as a freshman needs some time to bulk up. If I was a coach trying to cause trouble with Duke's three guard lineup, I definitely wouldn't want to match him guard for guard. Instead, I'd put a 6'7"-6'9" wing on the floor if possible and try to force Duke to play an inexperienced Murphy or Gbinije. There's an outside chance Duke could use Hairston at the 3 although I think he's better situated at the 4 if they do go big since I think Kelly is too slow to guard wings.

I don't think scoring will be an issue often for this Duke team so you're absolutely right that the ability to get stops on defense could make all the difference this year.

[CDu]

While I know it's not completely out of the realm of possibility, I don't see Duke playing 2 power forwards anytime except as an experiment in a blowout of because something has gone terribly wrong. Coach K has gone to the three guard lineup plenty though so I expect to see that. If anyone is going to end up going against a taller guard it's going to be Dawkins who has decent enough height, great athleticism, and has built some good muscle at this point. Austin has ok height but as a freshman needs some time to bulk up. If I was a coach trying to cause trouble with Duke's three guard lineup, I definitely wouldn't want to match him guard for guard. Instead, I'd put a 6'7"-6'9" wing on the floor if possible and try to force Duke to play an inexperienced Murphy or Gbinije. There's an outside chance Duke could use Hairston at the 3 although I think he's better situated at the 4 if they do go big since I think Kelly is too slow to guard wings.

I don't think scoring will be an issue often for this Duke team so you're absolutely right that the ability to get stops on defense could make all the difference this year.

I'd say that Hairston at the 3 is basically as unlikely as Kelly at the 3. And I think Kelly at the 3 is REALLY unlikely. Hairston is going to be the second backup at one of the two post spots (a distant second to the guy who doesn't start among Kelly/Miles/Mason).

I agree with the rest, although I'd note that not a ton of teams have a 6'7"-6'9" wing capable of forcing us to go bigger.

[OldPhiKap]

Good morning ladies and gentlemen,

My first post. The number 6 ranking is based more on Mike Krzyzewski than the returning team, that and the hype surrounding Austin. And, I think it's justified. Coach K gets the most out of his lineups. I do expect Duke to drop in the rankings somewhat before January just due to the fact that players who were supporting last year will have to lead this year. Until those players (Curry, Kelly and Miles P.) get used to that situation, Duke may lose a few early (tough schedule, especially in the Maui). Miles won't be a problem but he may be expected to handle 1-on-1 offensive duties which he is capable of but won't set the world on fire.

Where this outsider sees problems is defensively. Duke either plays great D or they don't make a big run in the NCAA's. I really wonder about the lineup. Does Duke go with a "big" team where Ryan Kelly plays the 3 or does Coach K settle with 3 guards, using Mason P. in a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5? If I'm coaching against Duke, I would test a 3 guard lineup but trying to post my tallest guard/wing inside to see if Austin Rivers is ready for the war. He will be in March but that's a long way off. If Ryan Kelly moves to the 3, teams will insert a quick wing or guard and run him around.

How well and when the Duke defense settles in and solves any problems will be the key to whether the team can hold a top 6 ranking or not. If Duke is still 6th or better by March, then the coaching staff will find a way to make a big push. I don't see a title this year but who knows, other teams could have injuries, attitude problems or tough seeding against the right cinderella which could pave the way to a final 4 for Duke.

UVA fan since 1976.

Welcome, and I hope you post more as the season progresses. I think UVa has finally got the right guy at the helm and should improve over the next few years. Which is good for everyone. -- OPK

[MCFinARL]

I cannot disagree. Your points are solid. It's just this little itch I can't quite scratch that keeps telling me to maintain an even keel as the season approaches.

Managing expectations--the key to happiness! (Or at least contentment.) But so hard to do now, when the prospect of Duke b-ball, along with college hoops generally, is so tantalizingly close....

[wk2109]

I'd say that Hairston at the 3 is basically as unlikely as Kelly at the 3. And I think Kelly at the 3 is REALLY unlikely.

Ryan did play a little bit at the 3 during his freshman year and he presumably practiced at the 3 as well that year (with a 2nd team of Curry, Dawkins, and the 2 Plumlees). But I agree that it's very unlikely that he'll spend any time there. I feel comfortable with a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5 spots and a 5-man rotation at the 1-3 spots. I doubt K will go much beyond that -- he might not even go 5 deep at the 1-3 spots.

[jimsumner]

Ryan did play a little bit at the 3 during his freshman year and he presumably practiced at the 3 as well that year (with a 2nd team of Curry, Dawkins, and the 2 Plumlees). But I agree that it's very unlikely that he'll spend any time there. I feel comfortable with a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5 spots and a 5-man rotation at the 1-3 spots. I doubt K will go much beyond that -- he might not even go 5 deep at the 1-3 spots.

I specifically asked Ryan the other day if he thought Duke would play a Kelly, Plumlee, Plumlee lineup at any time this season.

The answer was no. His wing days are behind him.

[moonpie23]

I'm sure that people last season were sick of hearing how duke was going to "take it all", and "unanimous #1" and "pre-season favorite", and that they "might run the table"........


cause i'm pretty sick of hearing the same thing about the tarholes...

ugh...let's just get it on and see what's what.....

[TonyWR]

I'm sure that people last season were sick of hearing how duke was going to "take it all", and "unanimous #1" and "pre-season favorite", and that they "might run the table"........


cause i'm pretty sick of hearing the same thing about the tarholes...

ugh...let's just get it on and see what's what.....

See that's the thing about the tarholes, when they have a good team that's all you hear and they all swear they're going undefeated (read espn posts) and how they'll cut the nets down, blah blah blah but once they get beat they disappear. It's hilarious really. I'm glad Duke isn't at the top of the list this year, it's a nice change once in a while.

[JasonEvans]

The AP poll is now out. Like the Coach's poll, AP has us at #6 (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings?ttag=gen10_on_all_fb_na_txt_0001).

Top 7 in the AP and Coach's polls are identical--


UNC
Kentucky
Ohio State
UConn
Syracuse
Duke
Vandy



-Jason "FSU is #26 in the AP poll... no other ACC team even got votes... sigh" Evans

[moonpie23]

what kind of warranty comes with that #1 ranking...


just wondering...

[devildeac]

what kind of warranty comes with that #1 ranking...


just wondering...

Same one we got last year.:(

"I've got it all here in my head
There's nothing more needs to be said..."

[tendev]

Let's just hope it does not end that way.

[jv001]

Let's just hope it does not end that way.

Would like to see how unc would do without their starting point guard for a long stretch. Hope no one gets injured though. Go Duke!

[slower]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/11/01/preseason.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a2

[sagegrouse]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/11/01/preseason.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a2

Good read. Duke is #4. --sage

[Newton_14]

The AP poll is now out. Like the Coach's poll, AP has us at #6 (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings?ttag=gen10_on_all_fb_na_txt_0001).

Top 7 in the AP and Coach's polls are identical--


UNC
Kentucky
Ohio State
UConn
Syracuse
Duke
Vandy



-Jason "FSU is #26 in the AP poll... no other ACC team even got votes... sigh" Evans

Heard something on the Adam Gold show last week that shocked me. According to Gold, combined, Duke and UNC have started the Season ranked Number 1 only 7 times. 4 for Duke and 3 for UNC. Had someone asked me to guess prior to hearing that, I would have guessed something in double digits without hesitation. I have not researched it to confirm it, but have no reason to doubt Adam's stats. He said he was talking about the major polls, specifically AP and ESPN. Do not recall if he said "Consensus Number 1" or not. Still found it very surprising. Would love to know if Mr. Sumner agrees with that number or not though...

[Kedsy]

Heard something on the Adam Gold show last week that shocked me. According to Gold, combined, Duke and UNC have started the Season ranked Number 1 only 7 times. 4 for Duke and 3 for UNC. Had someone asked me to guess prior to hearing that, I would have guessed something in double digits without hesitation. I have not researched it to confirm it, but have no reason to doubt Adam's stats. He said he was talking about the major polls, specifically AP and ESPN. Do not recall if he said "Consensus Number 1" or not. Still found it very surprising. Would love to know if Mr. Sumner agrees with that number or not though...

I just went through the AP Preseason poll back to 1961-62. Duke and UNC have combined for 7 pre-season #1 rankings just in the last 14 years (Duke: 2010-11, 2005-06, 2001-02, and 1998-99; UNC: 2011-12, 2008-09, 2007-08). However, Duke was also AP pre-season #1 in: 1991-92, 1988-89, and 1978-79. UNC was also AP pre-season #1 in 1993-94, 1986-87, 1983-84, 1981-82, and 1977-78. So the total for the last 50 years is Duke 7, UNC 8, for a combined total of 15.

So now you have reason to doubt Gold's stats. I didn't bother with the Coach's poll, so if he meant #1 in both pre-season polls, he could possibly be right. But I very much doubt it.

[Newton_14]

I just went through the AP Preseason poll back to 1961-62. Duke and UNC have combined for 7 pre-season #1 rankings just in the last 14 years (Duke: 2010-11, 2005-06, 2001-02, and 1998-99; UNC: 2011-12, 2008-09, 2007-08). However, Duke was also AP pre-season #1 in: 1991-92, 1988-89, and 1978-79. UNC was also AP pre-season #1 in 1993-94, 1986-87, 1983-84, 1981-82, and 1977-78. So the total for the last 50 years is Duke 7, UNC 8, for a combined total of 15.

So now you have reason to doubt Gold's stats. I didn't bother with the Coach's poll, so if he meant #1 in both pre-season polls, he could possibly be right. But I very much doubt it.

Thanks Kedsy. I may shoot him an email and ask him to clarify. Maybe he meant only 7 years where they were Number 1 in both of the pre-season polls like you indicate.

[JasonEvans]

Thanks Kedsy. I may shoot him an email and ask him to clarify. Maybe he meant only 7 years where they were Number 1 in both of the pre-season polls like you indicate.

Or maybe he was being Adam Gold and just making stuff up as he went along.

-Jason

[Newton_14]

Or maybe he was being Adam Gold and just making stuff up as he went along.

-Jason

And that could be correct as well! :)

[NSDukeFan]

I just went through the AP Preseason poll back to 1961-62. Duke and UNC have combined for 7 pre-season #1 rankings just in the last 14 years (Duke: 2010-11, 2005-06, 2001-02, and 1998-99; UNC: 2011-12, 2008-09, 2007-08). However, Duke was also AP pre-season #1 in: 1991-92, 1988-89, and 1978-79. UNC was also AP pre-season #1 in 1993-94, 1986-87, 1983-84, 1981-82, and 1977-78. So the total for the last 50 years is Duke 7, UNC 8, for a combined total of 15.

So now you have reason to doubt Gold's stats. I didn't bother with the Coach's poll, so if he meant #1 in both pre-season polls, he could possibly be right. But I very much doubt it.

Over the last 50 years, there is almost a 1 in 3 chance that Duke or Carolina start the year at #1. That is an amazing run of success.

[CDu]

Thanks Kedsy. I may shoot him an email and ask him to clarify. Maybe he meant only 7 years where they were Number 1 in both of the pre-season polls like you indicate.

Or maybe he meant only the last 15 years? If so, the "4 for Duke and 3 for UNC" would seem pretty accurate.

[Kedsy]

Over the last 50 years, there is almost a 1 in 3 chance that Duke or Carolina start the year at #1. That is an amazing run of success.

It's actually even more amazing that that, because all 15 #1 rankings have occurred in the last 35 years. So since 1977-78, either Duke or UNC has been the AP pre-season #1 team 43% of the time. 50% over the past 14 years.

Over the past 36 years, Duke and UNC have combined for five #2 AP pre-season rankings, and six #3 AP pre-season rankings. So over those 36 years, either Duke or UNC has been in the pre-season top three 26 times (72%). Over the past 51 years (which is all I could find of the AP poll, so it might be the entire history of the AP poll), Duke and UNC have combined for fifteen #1s, eight #2s, seven #3s, and six #4s. There was one year when both were in the pre-season top four (1997-98), so the two have combined to be in the top four 35 out of 51 years (69%), or 36 times in 51 years (71%), depending on how you want to count it.

Too bad it's not much of a rivalry. :D

[gumbomoop]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/11/01/preseason.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a2

Thanks for this heads up. Winn often has very interesting take, intriguing stats approach, quirky-good observations and comments.

In his Power 16, I was surprised by how high he has Cincy [# 11]. I still can't quite see Kansas [ Winn's # 12] as excellent this season; seems mostly premised on the very promising Thomas Robinson developing into a top 4-5 player in the country. I'd think the long-tall Baylor Bears [# 13] will top Kansas this year. If Baylor's transfer PG is good, they should be top 6-8 soon enough.

Glad to see Xavier [Winn's #14] getting recognition; good program, good school and academic values, iirc. Hope to have some X-posters join us on EK to discuss their team and season.

Some interesting numbers in Winn's #16-40: FSU at 21 [beat the Heels in Tally, please], Belmont at 21 [!!], Temple at 26 [tough away game for Devils], Washington at 40 seems way low to me.

[Bob Green]

It's actually even more amazing that that, because all 15 #1 rankings have occurred in the last 35 years. So since 1977-78, either Duke or UNC has been the AP pre-season #1 team 43% of the time. 50% over the past 14 years.

The truly amazing statistic is the percentage Duke or Carolina has finished the year as National Champions. Duke (91, 92, 01, 10) and Carolina (82, 93, 05, 09) have combined for eight championships over the past 30 seasons. That is 27% or a better than one in four chance one of the two schools will win it all.

Pre-season rankings are irrelevant.

[uh_no]

The truly amazing statistic is the percentage Duke or Carolina has finished the year as National Champions. Duke (91, 92, 01, 10) and Carolina (82, 93, 05, 09) have combined for eight championships over the past 30 seasons. That is 27% or a better than one in four chance one of the two schools will win it all.

Pre-season rankings are irrelevant.

Bingo. Where was Duke ranked in 09-10 preseason? where was UNC ranked that year? I'll give you a hint....unc was 4 and duke was 8.....

preseason rankings of anything...players, teams, conferences....all wild guesses and about as worthy of reward as a helms banner

[Olympic Fan]

I just went through the AP Preseason poll back to 1961-62. Duke and UNC have combined for 7 pre-season #1 rankings just in the last 14 years (Duke: 2010-11, 2005-06, 2001-02, and 1998-99; UNC: 2011-12, 2008-09, 2007-08). However, Duke was also AP pre-season #1 in: 1991-92, 1988-89, and 1978-79. UNC was also AP pre-season #1 in 1993-94, 1986-87, 1983-84, 1981-82, and 1977-78. So the total for the last 50 years is Duke 7, UNC 8, for a combined total of 15.

So now you have reason to doubt Gold's stats. I didn't bother with the Coach's poll, so if he meant #1 in both pre-season polls, he could possibly be right. But I very much doubt it.

Why stop at 61-62?

UNC was the preseason No. 1 team at 57-58 (coming off their 32-0 year).

So the grand total since the AP poll was instituted in 1948-49 is UNC nine (57-58; 77-78; 81-82; 83-84; 86-87; 93-94; 07-08, 08-09; 11-12) and Duke seven (78-79; 88-89; 91-92; 98-99; 01-02; 05-06; 10-11)

The ACC has three other preseason No. 1 teams: NC State (1974-75), Virginia (1982-83) and Georgia Tech (1985-86).

So that's 19 preseason No. 1 teams ... and how many have actually won the NCAA? I count three: UNC 1982; Duke 1992; and UNC 2009.

What's most impressive to me is that Duke and UNC have shared five of the last seven preseason No. 1 rankings -- and actually won the championship in one of the two years that they weren't No. 1 (2010). That illustrates pretty strongly why the Duke-UNC rivalry is college basketball's No. 1 attraction.

[Kedsy]

Why stop at 61-62?

I stopped there because the website I was using to see AP pre-season polls stopped there. Glad to see you had data going further back.

[nmduke2001]

ESPN has story about freshman and sophomore point guards leading their teams to the national title and how several of the contenders this year have young guys at the point. Only 6 have done it since 1990, two of which were Duke guys.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7155069/can-season-crop-young-point-guards-lead-their-teams-national-title-college-basketball

[superdave]

Ken Pom's pre-season rankings (http://kenpom.com/) are up. I am assuming this wont be useful for another month or so though, right?

[Kedsy]

Ken Pom's pre-season rankings (http://kenpom.com/) are up. I am assuming this wont be useful for another month or so though, right?

Probably longer than that. It's fun to look, but I wouldn't put any reliance on his numbers until at least mid-January.

[DukiesDohK]

Here is another top 25 rankings (http://www.stobblog.com/2011/10/stobs-2011-2012-pre-season-college.html)...pretty in depth.

It is really another very open season for who will win it all. UNC isn't as far ahead of everyone as people think.

Go Duke!

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Here's a SportingNews (http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/feed/2011-09/top-50/story/college-basketball-countdown-no-5-duke) quick take on Duke.

And their countdown (http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2011-11-03/with-fresh-talent-mike-krzyzewski-to-retool-dukes-system-on-the-fly)preview.