PDA

View Full Version : SI writer ranks Duke Backcourt #1 in the Nation



gwlaw99
10-12-2011, 12:26 PM
Sorry if this has been discussed, but I did not see a post on this. As the news story on the front page notes, an SI writer ranks Duke backcourt #1 in the nation. I think we have the potential to be and we have great depth, but I think it is way to early to make such a pronouncement. I don't think I have heard one person on this board make this kind of statement. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1110/cbb-top-16-backcourts/content.16.html

Faison1
10-12-2011, 01:18 PM
Sorry if this has been discussed, but I did not see a post on this. As the news story on the front page notes, an SI writer ranks Duke backcourt #1 in the nation. I think we have the potential to be and we have great depth, but I think it is way to early to make such a pronouncement. I don't think I have heard one person on this board make this kind of statement. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1110/cbb-top-16-backcourts/content.16.html

Yep, I saw that, and frankly feel it's a bit generous. But given the circumstances, and the relative lack of experience across the nation in the backcourts this year, I think Duke is top 5.

He also rated the Frontcourt as #7 or so. Again, I think it's a bit high, but as with the backcourt, there's a lot of unproven talent on our squad. I think it's there....it just needs to show results.

dukeballboy88
10-12-2011, 01:24 PM
I actually said the samething about our backcourt during a thread where I compared our team to another contender. Ill take Seth and Austin over any other backcourt in the nation on paper. I think Austin living up to the hype will determine if this prediction becomes true. They are best in the ACC for sure.

I am very excited to see Quinn Cook in a Duke uniform.

hq2
10-12-2011, 02:18 PM
Why shouldn't we be the best? Seth, Austin and Andre; who can top that out there? (not to mention Tyler's pretty decent too..)

OldPhiKap
10-12-2011, 02:28 PM
We certainly CAN be the best. Out of that list, though, there are a couple of part-time starters and a guy who's never played a college game.

I think we have a world of talent and I know that Seth and Andre have what it takes to lead this team. I love Tyler's game and am jacked to see Austin play for us. But until it happens -- it hasn't happened.

sporthenry
10-12-2011, 02:33 PM
Yes, we have some questions at guard spots but when you actually look at what others have, we have less questions. You could make an argument for Florida being better and UNC is up there if they can start hitting their 3's and those are the only two teams I'd put ahead of Duke.

The one team underrated seems to be Memphis. Perhaps I overrated their tournament play but Jackson and the Bartons seemed to cause headaches in both games and no team will be able to cover 2-3 guards of that quality. At that point, I thought Duke lucked out by having Arizona beat them last year.

Kedsy
10-12-2011, 02:47 PM
Yes, we have some questions at guard spots but when you actually look at what others have, we have less questions. You could make an argument for Florida being better and UNC is up there if they can start hitting their 3's and those are the only two teams I'd put ahead of Duke.

The one team underrated seems to be Memphis. Perhaps I overrated their tournament play but Jackson and the Bartons seemed to cause headaches in both games and no team will be able to cover 2-3 guards of that quality. At that point, I thought Duke lucked out by having Arizona beat them last year.

You would put UNC's backcourt ahead of our backcourt? Wow.

Duvall
10-12-2011, 02:49 PM
You would put UNC's backcourt ahead of our backcourt? Wow.

To be fair, it's tough to argue the claim that UNC's backcourt would be a lot better if its shooting guards weren't terrible at shooting.

DukieInBrasil
10-12-2011, 02:57 PM
To be fair, it's tough to argue the claim that UNC's backcourt would be a lot better if its shooting guards weren't terrible at shooting.
It's like saying John Henson would dominate just like Shaq if he didn't weigh 1/3 as much as Shaq
and could shoot jumpers just like Rip Hamilton
and could dribble and pass just like Jason Kidd.

gwlaw99
10-12-2011, 03:07 PM
To be fair, it's tough to argue the claim that UNC's backcourt would be a lot better if its shooting guards weren't terrible at shooting.

I guess we will just have to see if PJ Hairston lives up to the hype or is the next Reggie Bullock.

sporthenry
10-12-2011, 03:15 PM
You would put UNC's backcourt ahead of our backcourt? Wow.

After my comment, I realized that this would be jumped on and I didn't clarify it enough but we consider Dre part of the back court even though he will play a lot of the 3, yet HB is considered part of the front court? The 3 in the college game is a wing, just like the 2, so I consider the 1-3 part of the back court. So between KM, HB, and some combo of PJ, Dexter, and Bullock, I would put them right up there with us.

CDu
10-12-2011, 03:34 PM
After my comment, I realized that this would be jumped on and I didn't clarify it enough but we consider Dre part of the back court even though he will play a lot of the 3, yet HB is considered part of the front court? The 3 in the college game is a wing, just like the 2, so I consider the 1-3 part of the back court. So between KM, HB, and some combo of PJ, Dexter, and Bullock, I would put them right up there with us.

Yeah, this is always the sticky point of "best frontcourt/backcourt" discussions. If you include Barnes, I'd say UNC has arguably the better backcourt. If you exclude Barnes and Dawkins then I'd lean toward ours. But I'd also say that UNC's group of Marshall, Strickland, Hairston, and Bullock could be similarly good still.

As for our backcourt, I think there's a lot of talent - as much a. But like the frontcourt, there are a ton of questions:
- can Curry make the transition to being a PG rather than just a scoring SG?
- will Rivers be a star, or will he struggle to adjust to the college game?
- can Dawkins show more consistency and versatility rather than just being an occasional 3pt weapon?
- who will create for others?
- how much can/will Cook contribute this year?

Despite those questions, I don't see another backcourt that is better. Grant and Scott at Miami will be very good, but they are inconsistent and don't have the depth. The backcourts across the country seem a bit down this year.

Des Esseintes
10-12-2011, 04:06 PM
Yeah, this is always the sticky point of "best frontcourt/backcourt" discussions. If you include Barnes, I'd say UNC has arguably the better backcourt. If you exclude Barnes and Dawkins then I'd lean toward ours. But I'd also say that UNC's group of Marshall, Strickland, Hairston, and Bullock could be similarly good still.


Agreed, the three is tricky. Will Barnes play much of the two this year? I can't remember well if he did last year. Dawkins will likely play a fair amount of shooting guard. It's splitting hairs, but a decent appraisal would account for how much Dawkins/Barnes are expected to play actually *in* the backcourt. If Barnes is back there only a little--and Dawkins is there a significant amount--that matters.

In this completely fictive exercise that says nothing about the actual strength of the two teams involved.

CDu
10-12-2011, 04:16 PM
Agreed, the three is tricky. Will Barnes play much of the two this year? I can't remember well if he did last year. Dawkins will likely play a fair amount of shooting guard. It's splitting hairs, but a decent appraisal would account for how much Dawkins/Barnes are expected to play actually *in* the backcourt. If Barnes is back there only a little--and Dawkins is there a significant amount--that matters.

In this completely fictive exercise that says nothing about the actual strength of the two teams involved.

I don't think Barnes will play at the 2 at all. He didn't last year, and the roster is roughly the same in terms of numbers depth (three bigs with Watts filling in as the 4th, 4-5 smaller perimeter players).

I also don't think Dawkins will play much SG. With Curry, Rivers, Thornton, and Cook there should be very few minutes available at the SG spot. Dawkins may play slightly more than Barnes at the SG spot, but I don't think it will be enough to merit a distinction between him and Barnes.

Unless, of course, Murphy or Gbinije (or both) distinguish themselves substantially more than Cook/Thornton and force themselves into the rotation more than those guys. In that case, Dawkins could shift down. So while I don't expect Dawkins to end up playing substantially more at SG than Barnes, the possibility that he could play substantially more than Barnes is greater than that Barnes will play more minutes at SG.

In any case, I'd simplify it and just include both players as backcourt guys, since both will be perimeter guys on both ends of the floor anyway.

davekay1971
10-12-2011, 05:41 PM
I think it's fair and legitimate to put Barnes in UNC's frontcourt and Dawkins in our backcourt, despite them both playing the 3. Just because they both play the 3, doesn't mean they play the same position...or at least play it the same way. That being said, I'd ALSO include Barnes in UNC's backcourt.

Here's why. I think a more legitimate dividing line is perimeter/interior, rather than frontcourt/backcourt. Barnes is tough to categorize because, like Kyle did, he plays both. Therefore, it's actually fair to consider Barnes in evaluating both UNC's perimeter and interior. He's no Grant, but Grant gave us the same benefit (only much much better). Dawkins, on the other hand, is most definitely a perimeter player, even with his improved focus on generating mid range and to-the-basket offense.

In ranking UNC's perimeter, therefore, I'd grade them stronger than SI did, because Barnes demonstrated good shooting range in the 2nd half of the year, giving UNC a perimeter weapon it desperately needed. Including Barnes, UNC moves into the top 5 for perimeter game (even accounting for the legitimate questions whether Bullock and Hairston will contribute as long-range shooters). I'd still put Duke ahead of them, however. Seth and Andre are proven long range bombers. Seth has a good attacking-the-basket game, and Andre's improved significantly last year. Austin hasn't had the opportunity to show it in college yet, but there's little reasonable doubt that he will bring a very strong offensive game to Duke's arsenal. Add in Tyler's steady ball-handling and great defense, and Quinn's potential, and Duke's perimeter has more strengths and less questions than anyone else in the nation, at this point.

uh_no
10-12-2011, 06:11 PM
I think so much of our backcourt is unknown at this point. We know curry and dawkins are good....but top backcourt in the nation good? They've never played a game on he court without kyle and nolan (and with those guys' gaudy min/game they've hardly even stepped on the court in a meaningful game without those two). How will they respond? I don't know. How will Austin rivers play? no clue. Most guys here are spot on. It's a HUGE amount of potential, but relative to that huge potential, we have almost zilch in terms of indication on whether that potential will be realized.

These guys can certainly be something special, but I'd argue that as special as they can be, they STILL won't be as good as our backcourt last year, even without kyrie irving (with kyrie its not even close in terms of experience or talent)

These ratings are at best, shots in the dark....almost as good as preseason team ratings....and we all know how those generally end up...just ask uconn last year or duke the year before.

Anyway, duke could have the #1 backcourt, or they could have the #10 backcourt....i can see either happening

loldevilz
10-12-2011, 06:47 PM
You would put UNC's backcourt ahead of our backcourt? Wow.

To be fair UNC probably has the best guard between Duke and UNC's backcourt. So in a way you could make the argument that UNC's backcourt is better. Duke's system stresses backcourt scoring, but that doesn't make them better. What I don't understand is that we don't have a single player at this point who has proven that he's an All-American caliber player. Sure Curry or Rivers could end up being that good, but neither has proven anything.

Olympic Fan
10-12-2011, 06:55 PM
Agree that Duke seems to be rated very high on potential, rather than proven production. Will Seth and Andre go from being role players to stars? How big an impact with Austin have? How about Quinn?

Lot of potential and a lot of good prospects, but they have to prove it.

I'd feel a lot better about Luke Winn's list if he included Miami.

The 'Canes have had a lot of offseason problems in the frontcourt with Johnson and Gamble's injuries. But their backcourt is intact ... and it's superb. Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott return to start togeher for a third straight year. Garius Adams returns as the third starter as the third guard in a three-guard alignment. Rion Brown is a superb shooter off the bench. Trey McKinney-Jones is eligible after sitting out last season. And Bishop Daniels is a nice incoming freshman. You cn throw in DeQuan Jones who sometimes can -- and does -- swing into the backcourtn (certainly more often than Harrison Barnes).

It's a more accomplished group than either Duke or UNC's backcourts. Their top three guards combined for 35.5 ppg and 6.8 assists. Duke top three combined to average 18.7 points and 3.6 assists; UNC's top three averaged 19.8 ppg and 9.0 assists. Obviously, the addition of Riivers and Cook at Duke and of Hairston (not counting on Stilman White) for much) at UNC alters the equation some, but to offset that, Miami adds Trey McKinney Jones, a veteran 6-5 guy who averaged 11 ppg and 3 assists at UMKC in 2010 and Daniels, a petty highly regarded recruit from Raleigh's Word of God Academy.

Plus, just MHO, but the Miami kids finally have a first-rate coach to get the most out of them.

Not arguing that they are better than as a group than Duke or UNC's backcourts, only that they belong in the same conversation. And despite Winn's liist, they are clearly one of the top 16 backcourts in the country.

loran16
10-12-2011, 07:50 PM
It's too early to be able to make such a statement. But the writer, Luke Winn, is a really smart and good basketball analyst, as anyone who's read his power rankings knows. A perfect mix of stats, scouting, etc.

I don't know if he'll agree with his estimate in January, but he's a damn good guy to get praise from.

sagegrouse
10-12-2011, 09:13 PM
Let's see.... Duke has the best backcourt in the NCAA. Yet no Duke player was rated in the Top 50 of the country as determined by the Wooden prseason list. Damn, that's good coaching!

Seriously, there is no greater indictment of the Wooden preseason award list or the various preseason All-American teams. The prognosticators (what does that really mean?) merely comb the list of returning players and circle anyone with double figures (preferably >15) in scoring, double-digits in rebounds, or at least 8 assists per game. Voila! There's your list. Mindless drivel if you ask me; moreover, it requires no thinking whatsoever. Tie-breakers are always the players with the better-known programs. The Wooden Award ignores freshman (wisely, since they can always be added at midseason). The preseason A-A probably should as well (reference preseason first tema A-A Harrison Barnes last year).

WRT Duke, no returning player averaged double figure scoring, with Seth at 9, Andre at 8 and Mason at 7. Mason also had 8.4 rpg. However, all three departing Duke players averaged >15 ppg. Do you think that Seth may get a few more looks and Andre a few more shots? Anyway, Mr.Luke Winn was able to cut through this nonsense and give Duke the credit for talent, pressure defense, and luxurious depth: Seth, Dre, Tyler, Austin, Quin.

sagegrouse
'Gee, they missed a chance to push Seth last year, in that he averaged 20+ points per game at Liberty two years earlier. I guess that would have required some research'

Faison1
10-12-2011, 09:29 PM
I can NOT wait for the season to start. I am counting the minutes.

ACCBBallFan
10-12-2011, 09:33 PM
If BBall success were merely the sum of front court and back court ratings, 23 of the top 25 would be (not saying it is, just tabulating):

29 - UK
28 - UNC
27 - Ohio St
26 - Duke

23 - UCONN

15 - Vandy and Florida

12 - Baylor
11 - UCLA and Wisc

9 - Bama, Pitt and Xavier
8 - Syracuse and FSU

6 - Kansas and Louisville
5 - Minnesota and Temple
4 - A&M and Mizzou

1 - Memphis and Gonzaga

Some pretty good teams have no one in either top 16 front court or top 16 back court

16 BE 32Villanova -9
18 P10 17Arizona -1

22 BE 18Marquette -9
24 BE 20Cincy -6
25 B10 24Michigan St -4

26 B12 25Texas -2
27 B10 28Illinois -5
28 P10 Washington -3
29 B10 21Michigan-5
30 ACC 40Miami-Fl -8
31 B10 37Purdue -2

Kedsy
10-13-2011, 01:16 AM
If BBall success were merely the sum of front court and back court ratings, 23 of the top 25 would be (not saying it is, just tabulating):

29 - UK
28 - UNC
27 - Ohio St
26 - Duke

23 - UCONN


These numbers, and the Luke Winn rankings, seem to show that while everyone is talking about a dominant top four, it really should be a dominant top five, with Duke joining the party. Obviously only time will tell if that's' true in real life, but I suspect it is.

Wander
10-13-2011, 02:35 AM
It's a more accomplished group than either Duke or UNC's backcourts.

You're overrating Miami here. Miami's backcourt isn't more accomplished than UNC's - Kendall Marshall turned Carolina into the ACC regular season champion and an Elite 8 team. That's a much better accomplishment than anything the Miami guards have done. I guess they might technically be more "accomplished" than Duke's backcourt, but who cares? More or accomplished or not, Curry, Rivers, Dawkins, and Cook will be better, and almost certainly by a wide margin. The Hurricane guys led their team to a 7-11 conference record and that was with Reggie Johnson.

Don't get me wrong, Miami has a nice backcourt - it's one of the better ones in the conference - but they're not in the same conversation as Duke's and UNC's, which each have a high NBA draft pick, and it's not an outrage to leave them out of the top 16 nationally.

CDu
10-13-2011, 07:23 AM
Barnes is tough to categorize because, like Kyle did, he plays both. Therefore, it's actually fair to consider Barnes in evaluating both UNC's perimeter and interior.

I'd say Barnes played almost exclusively a perimeter game last year. I was surprised, in fact, at how unwilling Williams was to use him in the interior, in spite of UNC's lack of depth there. He instead played Justin Watts at the 4 last year. So if I were to edit Winn's list, I'd replace Watts with Barnes. Watts won't see a minute this year at the 2 or 3 spot barring injury or serious foul trouble. If he sees the floor, it'll be be at the 4 like last year.


Dawkins, on the other hand, is most definitely a perimeter player, even with his improved focus on generating mid range and to-the-basket offense.

A small nitpick, but developing a mid-range game and to-the-basket offense aren't signs of becoming less of a perimeter player. Both of those skills start from the perimeter. Attacking the rim off the dribble and finding space for the mid-range game (either off the dribble or off the ball) are very much perimeter player skils. Things like becoming a back-to-the-basket player and interior defender are signs of being less of a perimeter player.

jipops
10-13-2011, 02:55 PM
I was somewhat surprised to not see Dawkins' name in the list of top 16 shooters. Sure he isn't as deadly off the bounce as Seth, but I it may be hard to find a better stand-still long range bomber than Andre.

ACCBBallFan
10-13-2011, 10:30 PM
You're overrating Miami here. Miami's backcourt isn't more accomplished than UNC's - Kendall Marshall turned Carolina into the ACC regular season champion and an Elite 8 team. That's a much better accomplishment than anything the Miami guards have done. I guess they might technically be more "accomplished" than Duke's backcourt, but who cares? More or accomplished or not, Curry, Rivers, Dawkins, and Cook will be better, and almost certainly by a wide margin. The Hurricane guys led their team to a 7-11 conference record and that was with Reggie Johnson.

Don't get me wrong, Miami has a nice backcourt - it's one of the better ones in the conference - but they're not in the same conversation as Duke's and UNC's, which each have a high NBA draft pick, and it's not an outrage to leave them out of the top 16 nationally.Miami guards are as talented, just do not play as a unit, sometimes seem to be in competitiion with one another rather than teammates.

They have a horse in middle when he is healthy and Reggie does not get the ball as much as he should.

Further aggravated when guys like Garius Adams and Adrian Thomas who finally finished his 6 year stay at UM never saw a shot they did not like.

COYS
10-14-2011, 10:35 AM
I read the Winn article and think that Duke's got as good a chance as any school to have the best backcourt, however unlike Winn, I think Duke's guards are more likely to claim that mantle later in the season than they are early on. Seth, Andre, and obviously Austin are going to be playing entirely new roles. Quinn is a freshman who is coming off of a knee injury and missed valuable playing time this summer. Tyler is a steady player but it remains to be seen how effective he can be when he shoulders more offensive responsibility.

Seth's statistical profile from last year is really good. Excellent three point percentage, respectable assist rate, low turnover rate, good free throw shooting (although I think he could become more deadly here). The thing hindering him the most was his two point percentage, which improved as the year went on and he got used to shooting floaters and jumpers over taller defenders. It's true that a lot will be asked of Seth in terms of running the point, defending the point, and managing the team on offense. But he had a better year last year than I think most Duke fans even realize and is poised to break out this year as long as he can adapt to his new role

Dawkins is also one of the most efficient returning players in the nation, at least on offense. His efficiency is almost entirely tied to his three point shooting, so I think the thing to watch closely at the beginning of the year will be to see if he can remain an efficient player when he's asked to handle the ball more frequently. If he ended a possession last year, it was usually either a made three, a missed three, or a turnover. If he can continue his strong three point shooting and add one more dimension to his game (a consistent drive to boost his FT rate or, less likely, I think, a higher assist rate), he can break out as well.

The real wild card is Austin. He's got all the ability in the world, but, as we saw from the games in China he's got a long way to go to fit in with the team chemistry-wise on the court and adjust to the higher level of competition. It seems as if the staff will want him in a attack mode from the get go. If he can get to the line consistently and knock down open threes, it will go a long way toward helping his efficiency as he adjusts to an almost certain drop in his two point percentage from high school (drives to the hoop will be much tougher in the early going, I suspect). It will be interesting to see how often he takes tough jumpers off the dribble versus how often he keeps the ball moving on offense or makes it all the way to the hoop. He is capable of making some really impressive passes, but it remains to be seen how often he will look to create for others. Defensively, he's got excellent hands and quickness, but he seemed to gamble a lot for steals in China. There's a lot of work to be done, however, he is the top rated shooting guard and a potential one and done candidate for a reason. Even if it takes him a while to figure things out, I think that his talent combined with the staff's coaching will win out. I see this as a process, though, which is why I think that Austin is more likely to be better in February than he is in November and why I think that Duke's backcourt is more likely to become the best in the land by February or March than it is to start out looking like the best.

I haven't really covered defense, but this backcourt also has a world of potential on the defensive end. Seth is a ballhawk who makes up for some of his limitations in lateral quickness with excellent hands and positioning. Austin is quick and tall enough to handle almost all two guards. Tyler is a terror as we all already know and should be better in year two. Andre has had his ups and downs, to be sure, but has the strength to cause opposing threes problems. On the other hand, Austin is a freshman, Seth had the excellent Nolan Smith to help him out all last season, and Andre has never shown consistency on defense. In some ways, the defensive side of the ball might be a more important yardstick for how good this backcourt is than the offensive side. I would be shocked if the trio of Austin, Seth, and Andre failed to score points. I would be less shocked if they have some defensive struggles to begin with.

Faison1
10-14-2011, 11:51 AM
I read the Winn article and think that Duke's got as good a chance as any school to have the best backcourt, however unlike Winn, I think Duke's guards are more likely to claim that mantle later in the season than they are early on.

I completely agree. In fact, Duke's November/December schedule is so brutal, I will not be surprised if we make it through with a couple losses. During that time, I expect the media to turn on our backcourt/talent. However, as K always does, he'll have them playing at an extremely high level by March.

COYS
10-14-2011, 12:58 PM
I completely agree. In fact, Duke's November/December schedule is so brutal, I will not be surprised if we make it through with a couple losses. During that time, I expect the media to turn on our backcourt/talent. However, as K always does, he'll have them playing at an extremely high level by March.

I certainly hope we win every game, but with a new look team, you never know. I think the key to surviving that early gauntlet lies with the returning big guys more than anything else. If Mason, Miles, and Ryan provide consistent defense, rebound, and score at a decent clip, it will go a long way toward taking the pressure off of the new-look back court. Personally, I'm not one of those who believes that the buckets from the bigs have to come off of 1 on 1 post moves, but I do think that it will be important for at least one of those guys to comfortably average double digits (12+ points per game) and another one to either be right at or very close to double digits (9-11 ppg). My money is on Ryan leading the bigs in scoring but with Mason making surprising contributions as a play-maker and passer. I'm looking for Miles to be the rock on defense. All three need to rebound at a high level, as we lose a few rebounds per game with Singler no longer occupying the three spot on the court. If those guys can hold down the fort down low, I think it will make our guards look better earlier in the season and the team as a whole will be much better. It will also get our guards better looks as defenders (hopefully) will not be able to leave Mason, Miles, or Ryan to help on Austin or Seth when they foray into the lane. Zoubek and Thomas made huge strides later in their Duke careers. I'm looking for similar improvement from Miles, Mason, and Ryan. If they can provide steady, veteran play, Austin, Seth and Andre will have a much easier time easing into their new roles.

CDu
10-14-2011, 03:05 PM
I read the Winn article and think that Duke's got as good a chance as any school to have the best backcourt, however unlike Winn, I think Duke's guards are more likely to claim that mantle later in the season than they are early on. Seth, Andre, and obviously Austin are going to be playing entirely new roles. Quinn is a freshman who is coming off of a knee injury and missed valuable playing time this summer. Tyler is a steady player but it remains to be seen how effective he can be when he shoulders more offensive responsibility.

Seth's statistical profile from last year is really good. Excellent three point percentage, respectable assist rate, low turnover rate, good free throw shooting (although I think he could become more deadly here). The thing hindering him the most was his two point percentage, which improved as the year went on and he got used to shooting floaters and jumpers over taller defenders. It's true that a lot will be asked of Seth in terms of running the point, defending the point, and managing the team on offense. But he had a better year last year than I think most Duke fans even realize and is poised to break out this year as long as he can adapt to his new role

Dawkins is also one of the most efficient returning players in the nation, at least on offense. His efficiency is almost entirely tied to his three point shooting, so I think the thing to watch closely at the beginning of the year will be to see if he can remain an efficient player when he's asked to handle the ball more frequently. If he ended a possession last year, it was usually either a made three, a missed three, or a turnover. If he can continue his strong three point shooting and add one more dimension to his game (a consistent drive to boost his FT rate or, less likely, I think, a higher assist rate), he can break out as well.

The real wild card is Austin. He's got all the ability in the world, but, as we saw from the games in China he's got a long way to go to fit in with the team chemistry-wise on the court and adjust to the higher level of competition. It seems as if the staff will want him in a attack mode from the get go. If he can get to the line consistently and knock down open threes, it will go a long way toward helping his efficiency as he adjusts to an almost certain drop in his two point percentage from high school (drives to the hoop will be much tougher in the early going, I suspect). It will be interesting to see how often he takes tough jumpers off the dribble versus how often he keeps the ball moving on offense or makes it all the way to the hoop. He is capable of making some really impressive passes, but it remains to be seen how often he will look to create for others. Defensively, he's got excellent hands and quickness, but he seemed to gamble a lot for steals in China. There's a lot of work to be done, however, he is the top rated shooting guard and a potential one and done candidate for a reason. Even if it takes him a while to figure things out, I think that his talent combined with the staff's coaching will win out. I see this as a process, though, which is why I think that Austin is more likely to be better in February than he is in November and why I think that Duke's backcourt is more likely to become the best in the land by February or March than it is to start out looking like the best.

I haven't really covered defense, but this backcourt also has a world of potential on the defensive end. Seth is a ballhawk who makes up for some of his limitations in lateral quickness with excellent hands and positioning. Austin is quick and tall enough to handle almost all two guards. Tyler is a terror as we all already know and should be better in year two. Andre has had his ups and downs, to be sure, but has the strength to cause opposing threes problems. On the other hand, Austin is a freshman, Seth had the excellent Nolan Smith to help him out all last season, and Andre has never shown consistency on defense. In some ways, the defensive side of the ball might be a more important yardstick for how good this backcourt is than the offensive side. I would be shocked if the trio of Austin, Seth, and Andre failed to score points. I would be less shocked if they have some defensive struggles to begin with.

Agreed. Curry and Dawkins were both fantastically efficient last year. But that efficiency was in large part a function of being asked to do very little other than what they were very good at (i.e., shoot). With Smith, Singler, and briefly Irving, those guys didn't have to do much in terms of creating offense for themselves or others. This year, either they'll be asked to do a lot more of that or Rivers/Cook/Thornton will be asked to take on a LOT of responsibility for creating offense (or a bit of both).

As you said, every player in the backcourt (aside from Thornton, whose role may likely be similar to last year) is either a freshman or taking on substantially more responsibility in creating offense for themselves and/or others. There's a lot of talent, but it still remains to be seen how well/quickly it'll translate to these new roles.

jipops
10-14-2011, 06:22 PM
The paranoid Duke fan in me can see this as a way of overrating Duke before the season starts and setting up a level of dissapointment. It's just hard to see a backcourt with no experienced true pg (or even a player that has experience playing pg at the college level) as being the best backcourt in the nation.

uh_no
10-14-2011, 06:41 PM
The paranoid Duke fan in me can see this as a way of overrating Duke before the season starts and setting up a level of dissapointment. It's just hard to see a backcourt with no experienced true pg (or even a player that has experience playing pg at the college level) as being the best backcourt in the nation.

While we have hordes of evidence from the past two years of a team being wildly successful without a "true" point guard, this is still very worrisome. Jon was great because of his smart deliberate play, and nolan was a phenomenal ball handler and just so talented. I don't know if either of the 3 guys "supposed" to be starting have either the ball handling skills or the court awareness that nolan and jon had.

To Be Seen.

Wildcat
10-15-2011, 10:18 AM
Our back-court is good! However, they will be tested and probably hated. Our weakness again will be the lack of a true inside presence; ala back to the basket, inside scorer and bruiser. We will live and die by the three again. I'm ok with that; if its your strength, maximize it!

uh_no
10-15-2011, 11:39 AM
Our back-court is good! However, they will be tested and probably hated. Our weakness again will be the lack of a true inside presence; ala back to the basket, inside scorer and bruiser. We will live and die by the three again. I'm ok with that; if its your strength, maximize it!

Have you seen ryan kelly recently? This is the first time since I became a duke fan that I've been truly excited to watch one of our big men. The die by the 3 game only really works when you have superior offensive rebounding (see 2010 blue devils), and i feel we will have that. The other piece is having a guard who can get the shooters the shots they need....we had that in jon scheyer, we didn't have that last year (hence the ridiculous number of fade away ill-conceived three point shots we saw last year) But one can replace that by having a big scorer (kelly) who can draw some of the defense and get one of the shooters open not by having incredible court vision, but by being a big threat.

I'm very excited by this team....My concerns are thus:

Will kelly do in games what we've seen thus far in the preseason?
Will the plumlees progress enough to be rebounding beasts who can also play off kelly's new prowess to get some points?
can [whoever is playing point guard] figure out how to distribute the ball so the shooters end up wide open?
can austin reign in some of his ball-hoggish/high shot volume tendencies that will be absolutely necessary for a team like this?

Des Esseintes
10-15-2011, 12:20 PM
The die by the 3 game only really works when you have superior offensive rebounding (see 2010 blue devils), and i feel we will have that.

I don't know what it means to make a die-by-the-3 game "really work," but the 2010 Duke team is not an example of it. According to kenpom's tempo-free stats, Duke had the top-ranked offense that year. Where did we rank in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt? #154, right around the mean of college basketball. The percentage of points we scored off threes? #107, at the bottom of the top third. Duke does not shoot an inordinate number of three-pointers, nor does it rely inordinately on the made three.


The other piece is having a guard who can get the shooters the shots they need....we had that in jon scheyer, we didn't have that last year (hence the ridiculous number of fade away ill-conceived three point shots we saw last year)

According to kenpom's numbers, Scheyer's assist rate in 2010 was 25.8, ranked #197 among qualifiers. Last season, when we were taking all those "fade away ill-conceived three point shots," which show up neither in my memory banks, our won-loss record, or our overall offensive performance, our point guard Nolan had an assist rate of 30.3, ranked #80th. Kyrie didn't qualify, but his assist rate was 29.8

2010's team was ranked #1 in offense. Last year's team was #4. 2010 Duke was ranked #1 overall at season's end. 2011 Duke was ranked #2 (behind Ohio State). Both years we were extremely elite. The difference is that the 2010 squad won the national championship. I think matchups and luck are largely responsible for the difference in results, but everyone's mileage may vary. It was most definitely not successfully living/dying by the three, however.

jipops
10-15-2011, 07:31 PM
Our back-court is good! However, they will be tested and probably hated. Our weakness again will be the lack of a true inside presence; ala back to the basket, inside scorer and bruiser. We will live and die by the three again. I'm ok with that; if its your strength, maximize it!

I very much disagree with this. We have 3 very experienced big guys in the post this year who are very capable of scoring and have displayed loads of success on the boards in the past. K has made statements already that we will rely on them heavily. We haven't had this much presence in the paint in a long, long time. I think our backcourt may be over-rated while the frontcourt is something that a lot of people are overlooking. Though I think Winn has us rated about right.

uh_no
10-15-2011, 07:39 PM
I very much disagree with this. We have 3 very experienced big guys in the post this year who are very capable of scoring and have displayed loads of success on the boards in the past. K has made statements already that we will rely on them heavily. We haven't had this much presence in the paint in a long, long time. I think our backcourt may be wildly over-rated while the frontcourt is something that a lot of people are overlooking. Though I think Winn has us rated about right.

I think "loads of success" is a bit of a stretch, especially when push came to shove in the tournament, the plumlees got pushed around down low.
While they have shown that they are capable of scoring, they don't always actually score. Again, we see it in bunches, but they have never been go to guys, and I think that was the other guy's point. I think Ryan is becoming more and more of that, and I think that will take a ton of pressure off the guards and whatever plumlee happens to be in the game, but under no stretch of the imagination do I think that in previous years were any of he or the plumlees "go to scorers" in the sense that a tyler hansbrough or emeka okafor were.

Obviously the team doesn't NEED that to be successful (the past 2 national champions demonstrated that) but it certainly helps in certain matchups.


I think that will have improved this year, and that the P's will at least be more consistent.

jipops
10-15-2011, 07:46 PM
I think "loads of success" is a bit of a stretch

I took my hyperbole pill. "loads of" should have been removed.

uh_no
10-15-2011, 07:50 PM
I took my hyperbole pill. "loads of" should have been removed.

haha, that's fine

I agree with the premise of your post though. While having a "bruiser" down low is certainly a nice thing to have (and is fun to watch, for sure), not having one can hardly be construed a weakness by itself.

jimsumner
10-15-2011, 08:25 PM
I took my hyperbole pill. "loads of" should have been removed.

Hyperbole is the greatest word ever.

Billy Dat
10-15-2011, 08:34 PM
Luke Winn is a big Rivers believer - he fell in love with Rivers in the summer of 2010 at the FIBA U18 World's
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1171705/index.htm

I remember the article because I think Winn is pretty fair and isn't a Duke bandwagon guy (who is, these days). He got me very excited about Rivers at Duke. Looks like he's going to stay high until proven otherwise, which is cool because I am sensing a little Rivers backlash with the emergence of other guys in his class (e.g. Davis, etc.)

uh_no
10-15-2011, 08:38 PM
Hyperbole is the greatest word ever.

Hm. I was thinking "superlative" held that title.

COYS
10-17-2011, 12:07 AM
Agreed. Curry and Dawkins were both fantastically efficient last year. But that efficiency was in large part a function of being asked to do very little other than what they were very good at (i.e., shoot). With Smith, Singler, and briefly Irving, those guys didn't have to do much in terms of creating offense for themselves or others. This year, either they'll be asked to do a lot more of that or Rivers/Cook/Thornton will be asked to take on a LOT of responsibility for creating offense (or a bit of both).

As you said, every player in the backcourt (aside from Thornton, whose role may likely be similar to last year) is either a freshman or taking on substantially more responsibility in creating offense for themselves and/or others. There's a lot of talent, but it still remains to be seen how well/quickly it'll translate to these new roles.

I agree with you about Dawkins, and even mentioned that in my original post. However, I think Seth handled the ball in pressure situations enough to show his potential as a floor general. He struggled off the bounce early in the season, but improved more and more as the season went on. More importantly, he consistently made smart decisions with the ball. After Friday night's performance in the B/W game, I'm excited to see what he can accomplish this season.

CDu
10-17-2011, 10:24 AM
I agree with you about Dawkins, and even mentioned that in my original post. However, I think Seth handled the ball in pressure situations enough to show his potential as a floor general. He struggled off the bounce early in the season, but improved more and more as the season went on. More importantly, he consistently made smart decisions with the ball. After Friday night's performance in the B/W game, I'm excited to see what he can accomplish this season.

I don't agree that Curry handled any floor general duties to any significant degree last year. But I'm optimistic he can do it this year.

With Curry, Rivers, Cook, and Thornton on the team, Dawkins thankfully won't be asked to fill that role (because he's really not suited for it).

Billy Dat
10-17-2011, 05:11 PM
Winn also ranked Rivers as the #1 freshman in the country:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1110/cbb-top-instant-impact-freshmen/content.16.html

uh_no
10-17-2011, 07:18 PM
Winn also ranked Rivers as the #1 freshman in the country:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1110/cbb-top-instant-impact-freshmen/content.16.html

I think these two rankings are highly correlated, obviously. But I do, unfortunately, think that he may be overestimating rivers. I hope i'm wrong, but I'm probably underestimating him. After all the hype, I'm a little down on his play so far. This could obviously change as he fits into the team better....gets some K under his belt, but right now i'm so wary of of harrison barnes part 2, that I'm very cautious about all the praise that he's being heaped.

We shall see. These are by far the worst 2 weeks of the year, as we have to hear about predictions and potential based on nothing but hype.

CDu
10-17-2011, 07:31 PM
I think these two rankings are highly correlated, obviously. But I do, unfortunately, think that he may be overestimating rivers. I hope i'm wrong, but I'm probably underestimating him. After all the hype, I'm a little down on his play so far. This could obviously change as he fits into the team better....gets some K under his belt, but right now i'm so wary of of harrison barnes part 2, that I'm very cautious about all the praise that he's being heaped.

We shall see. These are by far the worst 2 weeks of the year, as we have to hear about predictions and potential based on nothing but hype.

I think he seems to be fairly capable of getting whatever shot he wants. What remains uncertain is with what regularity he will make such shots, and how much he can play within a system rather than being the uber-focus of the offense. And it remains to be seen how committed he'll be on the defensive end and how much he'll avoid the "I didn't get a call so I'll complain rather than get back on defense."

Obviously, Coach K will keep an eye on these things and work to prevent them from occurring, but the way to get it across may be time off the court next to Coach K (which will work somewhat against him being the #1 freshman).

Hopefully he figures the college game out and works himself into the system pretty quickly, because I think the talent is there.

ACCBBallFan
10-17-2011, 08:07 PM
I think he seems to be fairly capable of getting whatever shot he wants. What remains uncertain is with what regularity he will make such shots, and how much he can play within a system rather than being the uber-focus of the offense. And it remains to be seen how committed he'll be on the defensive end and how much he'll avoid the "I didn't get a call so I'll complain rather than get back on defense."

Obviously, Coach K will keep an eye on these things and work to prevent them from occurring, but the way to get it across may be time off the court next to Coach K (which will work somewhat against him being the #1 freshman).

Hopefully he figures the college game out and works himself into the system pretty quickly, because I think the talent is there.
When I rewatched the scrimmage I was pleasantly surprised by how well Austin played defense against Dre and Alex. Her got beat a couple of times when he had to switch over to guard Seth, but overall a very solid defensive performance with 5 rebounds as well.

It's his 6 TO's that are still a concern until he slows down and learns to switch speeds. Even though he missed the shot at end, positive sign that he is willing to take it. Would have been quite a story line if it had not rimmed out.