Survivor: Redemption Island - part II [Archive]

JasonEvans

09-26-2011, 07:31 PM

Yup, we need a thread for this once again.

Hate, hate, hate that they have brought Redemption Island back for another try. I did not like it last time and will not like it this time. Propst says they will no longer do 3-way or 4-way duels on Redemption. Everything will be one-on-one with the loser headed home. I fail to see why/how that will change the dynamic of having someone who got voted out back in the game. Bad.

My first thought was that Ozzie and Coach as returnees was a bad call but the more I think about it, the more I like it. Ozzie is a no-brainer, a challenge stud who has always sucked at strategy and probably could have at least a couple final 3 appearances under his belt if he was better at it. Giving him another chance to figure out a smarter strategy works for me. Coach gave me great pause at first, but he is a real character and is sure to "bring the crazy" the longer he stays in the game. I think it will be fun.

We are just beginning to get to know the new contestants, but there are some promising characters.

Brandon Hanz is a riot as he tries to not be his uncle. I cracked up at him wanting to get Mikayla out of the game because he is a family man and he did not want to be tempted by her. If I was his wife, that would not exactly give me great confidence in his ability to remain faithful. Ha! I think Brandon may not be long for the game. I am betting he rubs people the wrong way and is gone right around the merge at the latest.

I think Cochran is fun because he is such a fan of the show who has probably convinced himself time and time again that he can win if he could just get on the show -- but now he is there and he realizes that he is a total 90-pound-weakling and his head is likely to quickly be on the chopping block. I hope he makes it a bit because it could be fun to hear him explain his strategy as time moves on. If he can survive a couple more votes, I could see him going a long way.

So far, both tribes have voted out exactly who they should have. Semhar was just godawful in the first challenge. I am stunned that she volunteered to shoot the coconuts when she clearly had never even tossed a balled up piece of paper in a trashcan before. And then she tried to explain that she should get a break because she put herself out there and volunteered. Ummm, yeah, but you failed miserably. Buh-bye.

Christine committed a cardinal sin by hunting for the immunity idol and flaunting in everyone's face that she was hunting for it. Really bad form. She then got too confrontational with people when she realized she was likely to go. I am glad she was eliminated.

Jim, the poker-playing pot-dealer, has the potential to be a real bad guy as the season moves along. I smell a future Villain in him, big time.

Too early to say much about many of the other characters. We've gotten little glimpses, but not much.

-Jason "so far, nothing great and nothing terrible about this season" Evans

OZZIE4DUKE

09-27-2011, 09:07 AM

Yup, we need a thread for this once again.

Hate, hate, hate that they have brought Redemption Island back for another try.

My first thought was that Ozzie and Coach as returnees was a bad call but the more I think about it, the more I like it. Ozzie is a no-brainer, a challenge stud who has always sucked at strategy and probably could have at least a couple final 3 appearances under his belt if he was better at it. Giving him another chance to figure out a smarter strategy works for me. Coach gave me great pause at first, but he is a real character and is sure to "bring the crazy" the longer he stays in the game. I think it will be fun.

We are just beginning to get to know the new contestants, but there are some promising characters.

Brandon Hanz is a riot as he tries to not be his uncle.

I think Cochran is fun

So far, both tribes have voted out exactly who they should have. Semhar was just godawful . Buh-bye.

Christine committed a cardinal sin. I am glad she was eliminated.

Jim, the poker-playing pot-dealer, has the potential to be a real bad guy as the season moves along. I smell a future Villain in him, big time.

Too early to say much about many of the other characters. We've gotten little glimpses, but not much.

-Jason "so far, nothing great and nothing terrible about this season" Evans
Definitely time for a Survivor thread!

First, I'm not playing, but Ozzy is http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/4.gif Like Ozzy Osbourne, he spells his name wrong! Ozzy Osbourne spells BOTH names wrong! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/3.gif But I like Ozzy and I'm rooting for him! Never been a real Coach fan, but we'll see. I'll keep an open mind.

Not a fan of Redemption Island either. But at least weak players are going there (so far).

Brandon does seem to be a bit schizophrenic - one minute confident, the next paranoid. I'm sure the editing has a lot to do with that, but he's the "perfect" Survivor contestant for viewing pleasure. Keeping his identity a secret didn't last long, and I'm sure that will come back to bite him in the rear sooner rather than later. Like maybe this week.

Cochran? His best chance is that his Savaii tribe wins several immunity idols so he has a chance to prove his value over the long run, but then they'll pick him off because they are worried he'll outsmart them at the end.

Lots of interesting characters and pretty people to watch in the rest of the cast. Should/could be a fun season!

OZZIE4DUKE

10-27-2011, 05:34 PM

How about Ozzy's move last night! Wow! Either the smartest, or dumbest, ever on Survivor. I hope it plays out well for him! Like he said, he did it on his terms this time. :cool:

Blue in the Face

10-28-2011, 01:02 AM

How about Ozzy's move last night! Wow! Either the smartest, or dumbest, ever on Survivor. I hope it plays out well for him!
I've found Ozzie to be pretty annoying, and worse, petulant, this season, so I wouldn't mind if it it doesn't work out for him, but it was certainly ballsy. But at risk of bleeding into another thread, even if it does work out, is gaining numbers in a merge a bigger benefit than not having to watch Jack and Jill. No matter how hungry you are, that's a steep[ price to pay for popcorn and candy.

OZZIE4DUKE

10-28-2011, 10:08 AM

I've found Ozzie to be pretty annoying, and worse, petulant, this season, so I wouldn't mind if it it doesn't work out for him, but it was certainly ballsy. But at risk of bleeding into another thread, even if it does work out, is gaining numbers in a merge a bigger benefit than not having to watch Jack and Jill. No matter how hungry you are, that's a steep[ price to pay for popcorn and candy.
I'm not on Survivor. Ozzy is. Or are you saying I've been pretty annoying and petulant this season? :p

Doug.I.Am

10-28-2011, 03:09 PM

JasonEvans

10-31-2011, 11:09 AM

Ozzy(not ie)'s plan doesn't make any sense to me. I know what he's trying to do but if they don't merge, his tribe is easy pickings and this whole plan goes for naught. It's rare plays like this work out very well. And then there's the possibility Cochran could use the idol to keep him around if they don't merge and his squad loses the challenge. I'd love to see who that would play out. "Sorry Ozzy, but I had to use it, you understand."

I just caught up on a couple episodes after being out of town. Here are my thoughts about Ozzy's plan--

1) Part of me feels it is foolish because it should have been clear so far that Christine has no interest in going back to Coach and her former tribe-mates in Upolu. She has shown scorn for them several times while competing on Redemption Island. They voted her out early in the game, so she had little time to bond with them and would clearly feel betrayed by the early ouster. Just this week Ozzy sat there and saw Albert openly rooting for Mikayla in the Redemption challenge. So, in that regard, I don't really get the "we need to send someone to Redemption who can beat Christine."

2) On the other hand, I love, love, love the story they are going to sell to Upolu. Cochran played the idol and voted Ozzy out. If you are Upolu, it would make perfect sense -- why else would they vote Ozzy out? I think the odds are excellent that Cochran will be able to get close enough to the Upolu tribe to find out who they are targeting. He then communicates that to his real allies in Savaii, allowing them to play the idol and protect Upolu's target. Recall that we are looking at a 6-6 tie right now (if Ozzy's plan works). Knowing who the other side will target is huge as it allows your side to play your idol and get the 6-5 upper hand that gives you control of the next several vote-outs.

3) I worry that the Survivor producers may alter their plans for when the merge happens and when they bring contestants back from Redemption as a result of Savaii's open discussion of the impact of these events. I sorta wish they had this stuff planned in advance and it was impossible to change. Whether they merge next week or not, we will never know if they altered the game to either work with or work against Ozzy's plan. That said, I bet the merge does happen because the plan is so clever and dangerous, the show will want to give it a chance to work. Plus, Ozzy is a big hero and they will want to keep him around if they can. In fact, I bet the Redemption Challenge will feature some physical aspect that will favor Ozzy -- even if it is just a little bit.

-Jason "this season is really growing on me!" Evans

Doug.I.Am

10-31-2011, 02:17 PM

I just caught up on a couple episodes after being out of town. Here are my thoughts about Ozzy's plan--

1) Part of me feels it is foolish because it should have been clear so far that Christine has no interest in going back to Coach and her former tribe-mates in Upolu. She has shown scorn for them several times while competing on Redemption Island. They voted her out early in the game, so she had little time to bond with them and would clearly feel betrayed by the early ouster. Just this week Ozzy sat there and saw Albert openly rooting for Mikayla in the Redemption challenge. So, in that regard, I don't really get the "we need to send someone to Redemption who can beat Christine."

2) On the other hand, I love, love, love the story they are going to sell to Upolu. Cochran played the idol and voted Ozzy out. If you are Upolu, it would make perfect sense -- why else would they vote Ozzy out? I think the odds are excellent that Cochran will be able to get close enough to the Upolu tribe to find out who they are targeting. He then communicates that to his real allies in Savaii, allowing them to play the idol and protect Upolu's target. Recall that we are looking at a 6-6 tie right now (if Ozzy's plan works). Knowing who the other side will target is huge as it allows your side to play your idol and get the 6-5 upper hand that gives you control of the next several vote-outs.

3) I worry that the Survivor producers may alter their plans for when the merge happens and when they bring contestants back from Redemption as a result of Savaii's open discussion of the impact of these events. I sorta wish they had this stuff planned in advance and it was impossible to change. Whether they merge next week or not, we will never know if they altered the game to either work with or work against Ozzy's plan. That said, I bet the merge does happen because the plan is so clever and dangerous, the show will want to give it a chance to work. Plus, Ozzy is a big hero and they will want to keep him around if they can. In fact, I bet the Redemption Challenge will feature some physical aspect that will favor Ozzy -- even if it is just a little bit.

-Jason "this season is really growing on me!" Evans

Hi Jason, IIRC I saw a commercial over the weekend indicating the merge will in fact take place. So far, Ozzy's plan works. Next question is this, when does the redemption island "survivor" return to the game? Will he have to keep fighting it out for a couple more weeks or immediately return if/when he defeats Christine? FWIW, she's a tough customer, this is not a given.

Lastly, Cochran has 9 lives, I think he's a cat. I wonder if contestants will kick themselves in the behind soon for not getting him out earlier. I personally think he's easy pickings because he's not much of a threat in challenges but he's lasted a LOT longer than I thought he would.

Udaman

11-01-2011, 08:49 AM

I've often wondered if Survivor was scripted....at least some of it. There are just things that happen from time to time that make no sense (i.e. Heroes v. Villians when the guy could have voted off Russell, but somehow got talked into changing his vote in a move that made no sense at all and got himself voted out).

But after this last week, I'm almost 100% convinced that it is. Ozzie's move makes NO SENSE AT ALL. Why?

1) First off, as others have said, it was almost certain that Christine would have joined with them anyway. She told them all the secrets of the other tribe. They knew that it would either be her or Cochran if he was sent there. If they bring the person back right now, then they would be on their tribe almost for certain.

2) There's no guarantee that the person from Redemption Island will come back into the game next week. None at all.

3) The Redemption Island challenges are almost never about physical strength. Almost never. I can't think of one. They balanced plates, they played shuffle board. They tossed bags (maybe that one was, but barely). They are almost all by chance. Yes there is some physical dexterity needed, but Christine has shown that she has that.

4) They just removed a huge player from their tribe. If Ozzie loses on Redemption Island, they've just made it very, very easy for Opolu to pick them all off.

It just seems scripted. It's too much a gamble to take, and Ozzie's talk of "this is my chance for redemption" is crazy. You never remove yourself willingly from the game and put your life in fate's hands. You just don't. And I bet Ozzie loses this week, so they can call it the "dumbest move in Survivor history" which is exactly what it would be....unless of course Ozzie got paid by Survivor to do it.

JasonEvans

11-02-2011, 10:59 PM

Props to Ozzy for almost pulling it off... but he clearly was overacting and too over-the-top in trying to sell Cochran as a betrayer. Upolu saw through it right away. It might have been better to try to pull the same thing off in a low-key kinda way.

Personally, I think Coachran was thinking too short-term in his tiebreaker flip-flop. He has pretty much assured himself of having no chance to win the game. No one in his old tribe will ever vote for him. All claims to playing honorably or anything like that are out the window. What's more, if there is some bold move to shuffle things a bit, I can't see anyone trusting him after this betrayal. I think he made a poor choice.

If he sticks with his tribe, they have a 5-2 advantage on the rock pull, a huge advantage. If they win that rock pull and he wants to betray some jerk like Rick or Keith down the road, after a couple vote-offs or so, he would be in good position to do it. He could still control the game (especially because I think he could convince Dawn to come with him in forming a new alliance with some former Upolu folks).

I am disappointed in Coachran. I suspect that we now will get at least 4 weeks of predictable vote-outs. Yawn. Then again, with no one leaving due to injury, they need to speed up the game a bit so we may see some double-elimination weeks or something else strange. I'd love to see the game re-form teams at random for a couple vote-outs. That could be fun.

-Jason "pity, this had been a fun Survivor edition so far" Evans

Doug.I.Am

11-03-2011, 08:46 AM

Nice play on "Coachran" or was that a freudian slip? That was way too early for a move like that. Doesn't he realize that Ozzy saved his bacon last week by sending himself to Redemption and leaving Cochran in the game. AND, to solidify his standing in Savaii, all he had to do was infiltrate Upolu, gather information and report back. He could have been a hero.

"I swapped, I can explain." Explain what? How do you explain abandoning your tribe? I must say, he's sitting pretty now because it's 6-5 but I would NOT want to be Cochran at this point in time. As soon as the old Savaii tribe has a chance to oust him, they will. The bullseye on his back is akin to Laettner's after he stomped on Timberlake.

He better put the Harvard law degree to work, and soon.

JasonEvans

11-03-2011, 11:20 AM

That was way too early for a move like that. Doesn't he realize that Ozzy saved his bacon last week by sending himself to Redemption and leaving Cochran in the game. AND, to solidify his standing in Savaii, all he had to do was infiltrate Upolu, gather information and report back. He could have been a hero.

In fairness, I think gathering info was not possible because Ozzy over-sold the betrayal story. We saw that right away when Albert mentioned not believing Ozzy during the Redemption challenge. Then, the moment Cochran got alone with Coach, we heard Coach accurately dissect the plan.

Still, I 100% agree that Coachran made his move too soon. As I stated above, there was room for him to shake things up later. At this point, all he did was doom his tribe and doom himself.

"I swapped, I can explain." Explain what? How do you explain abandoning your tribe? I must say, he's sitting pretty now because it's 6-5 but I would NOT want to be Cochran at this point in time. As soon as the old Savaii tribe has a chance to oust him, they will. The bullseye on his back is akin to Laettner's after he stomped on Timberlake.

Here is the real problem with what Cochran did - he now has zero allies in this game. I suspect that even Dawn dislikes him at this point. Heck, I won't be at all surprised if his old tribe votes to oust him next time. Brandon and Coach seem to feel like they need to protect him, but they certainly don't need him any more. His one vote was all that mattered to them. He is expendable now and you know he is going to be the center of a lot of conflict back at camp. If folks want to get rid of the drama, they may decide the best way to do it is to get rid of Cochran.

He better put the Harvard law degree to work, and soon.

Frankly, I have seen little from him to indicate he is a smart and strategic player. His physical ineptitude has left him scrambling from day one, but I have never gotten the impression he was a smart and strategic player. He has not shown off any intellect at challenges and his strategic decision last night was just short-sighted and foolish. I just don't see him lasting much longer in the game and cannot figure out any way he manages to make the final 4 or so.

-Jason "I think Albert and Sophie are in the driver's seat right now -- I see them both lasting a looong time" Evans

Doug.I.Am

11-03-2011, 11:51 AM

Jason - agreed Ozzy oversold the whole Cochran/idol thing but it seemed a little weird/spooky how quickly they caught onto the scheme. It's almost like Coach spelled out the plan to a T, like he was the one who drew it up. Brilliant, and then Cochran folded like a cheap suit. I spent the majority last night asking, "really? REALLY?"

I don't see Dawn backing Cochran after she came to her senses to stay. She'll get over the "poor Cochran" thing in a hurry I'm guessing. She tried to warn him before tribal not to flip flop. He should has listened.

Things change in a hurry in this game and I wouldn't put it past the rat to make an extended run in this game. He has zero physical ability, like you said, which will hurt him later but as long as he can stay on the side with numbers, he's ok.

Here's question, why didn't Savaii try to vote out someone more important than Rick? Why not take a run a Coach?:confused:

mkirsh

11-03-2011, 12:22 PM

Here's question, why didn't Savaii try to vote out someone more important than Rick? Why not take a run a Coach?:confused:

My guess is they thought Coach might play an idol to protect himself. Which begs the question, why didn't his side play an idol? If they guess right they win (plus i think Cochran told them Rick was the target), rather than hoping that Cochran would flip or take their chances drawing rocks. I guess they felt very confident in Cochran.

Was really impressed with Coach last night for the first time ever. The way he handled Cochran was perfect - first I'll tear apart your plan and demonstrate complete confidence in my tribe, but then empathize with you for people not liking you because you are "superior". Exactly the right buttons to push.

Only real drama the next few weeks will be if someone finds an idol, or if Albert/Sophia/Coach start thinking way ahead and try to blindside each other.

JasonEvans

11-03-2011, 01:32 PM

plus i think Cochran told them Rick was the target

My recollection was that Cochran told them that his tribe was targeting Sophie.

Here's question, why didn't Savaii try to vote out someone more important than Rick? Why not take a run a Coach?:confused:

That's easy -- they were targeting Coach and the other stronger members of the tribe. Savaii was playing for a tie vote and a black rock. The way the rock pick works is that the people who pick are the ones who a) are not immune and b) had not been voted-for previously. So, the folks who would have not been in the black rock of death pool would have been -- Ozzy (immunity won), Dawn (immunity won), Whitney (immunity idol from Ozzy), Rick (tie vote x2 = no rock draw), and Keith (tie vote x2 = no rock draw).

The folks who could have been ousted with the rock were: Savii Jim and Cochran and then 5 members of Upolu - Coach, Brandon, Albert, Sophie, and Edna. I have to say, one reason I found Jim's "coward" comment to Cochran so telling was that Jim was the only other member of Savaii who was at risk if Cochran did not flip. Everyone else was immune. So, I was cool with Jim saying it but if Ozzy or Keith got all up in arms, I would have a little problem with that.

The pity is that Cochran did not go to Ozzy or Jim and admit that he was wavering. They might have figured out to throw the immunity idol his way, instead of to Whitney, as a way of ensuring he would not break ranks. I also think it would have been interesting for Ozzy and Dawn to pass their immunity idols around to other tribe members, in the hope they would land on the person Upolu was planning to vote for, perhaps confusing one person on Upolu and getting a 6-5-1 result instead of 6-6. Ahh well.

-Jason "Cochran thinks he is a student of the game... he got nothing on some of us!!" Evans

Udaman

11-03-2011, 02:51 PM

Ozzie and Dawn wouldn't gain an advantage passing around the immunity necklace, because you have to do that before the vote, not after (otherwise it would be a huge, huge advantage...like hidden immunity).

I guess I'm not that down on Cochran. It's true that they had the numbers....but I agreed with him on his comment about "I don't want this to become a game of chance for me." If I was out there, I would feel the same way. It would suck to lose because of pure chance. Absolutely suck.

And so let's look at his choices:

1) Stick with his tribe and hope they win the 30% lottery. If they do, then they pick off the other tribe until there are 6 of them left, and then Cochran is dead meat. His tribe did rip all over him. No way would they vote for him if he made it to the final three (he was too weak, lost them challenges, etc). OK, so maybe he gets Dawn to flip over to Coach's side after a while...then they still alienate Savii big time, and don't get any votes. Basically he has nothing if he stays. And if the rocks come out the wrong way, Savii is still down, he's likely at Redemption Island (50/50 chance) and if he doesn't, then Upolu is in control and they all have no respect for him.

2) He does what he did. Now he's guaranteed to be in the final 7. Guaranteed. And Upolu actually has respect for him. He's the nerd that got picked on. He's the guy they called a coward (actually really like it when Russel's nephew said, "that's why he turned on you, for treating him like that." He's a hero to them.

And, he's smart. They'll target Jim and Ozzie first as the biggest threats. Then, he can make a play with Dawn and some of the Upolu tribe to take out Coach before it's too late. I think something like that could easily happen, so he might even be in the top 6. Once there, he'll be the guy who is not a threat...and he could even make it further.

Like it or not, this was the smart play for Cochran. Plus it certainly adds drama.

Ozzie blew it with the Redemption Island speech. He should have gone low key. Cochran nuked me, end of story. Also, when they announced the merge and all the Savii tribe were pumped, that gave it away. And the decision to give the idol to Whitney was the worst move of the night. Jim, Ozzie and Keith should have known that Cochran might flip (it was their only chance to lose) and tell them about the plan to give it to Whitney...and so they should have given it to either Keith or Jim just be safe.

mr. synellinden

11-03-2011, 03:10 PM

Doug.I.Am

11-10-2011, 08:42 AM

Not too surprised at what happened last night. I like Ozzy and this is the first time I've really liked the concept of Redemption Island. I'd love to see him come back and take out a couple Upolu members. You can never count this guy out.

Cochran makes my blood boil, man. If the Upolu tribe doesn't target him first, there is something very wrong with this game. Coach, for one, should be totally against his game play. He keeps touting "play with honor" but Cochran has done everything but. We's weak, has no game and he turned on his own tribe when it mattered most. He said he didn't want to leave his fate to pulling rocks. Well, if he had done his calculations, he would have realized he had a 14% chance of being eliminated in the rock game. He has 0% chance of winning now.

Two more targets to get knocked down by Upolu, then the game is on.

JasonEvans

11-11-2011, 05:34 PM

You can tell the show producers like Ozzy. He continues to be a focus of the game, even after being sent to Redemption Island.

I was a bit bummer Jim did not follow through on his plan to give the idol to Ozzy. I have long advocated this as a way of fostering confusion among a rival tribe that has a numbers advantage. He was right that he would be voted off as soon as they got the chance.

Jim is right that Albert needs to be thinking about possibly shaking up the game. Coach is in the driver's seat, much like Rob was a year ago. I think Coach will recognize that taking another strong player, like Albert or Stephanie, with him to the end is a bad move. He has a pair of lesser players who will gladly stick by his side in Rick and Edna. He also has a pair of psycho/unliked players in Cochran and Brandon. Albert and Steph need to make their move NOW or they will get voted out.

I am starting to think that Cochran is in good shape to make it far because EVERYONE wants to sit next to him at the end. None of his former tribe-mates will dream of voting for him. Once Dawn and Whitney have been taken out, Cochran could become a key swing vote... assuming there is a need for one. I really do not like him. I think he has made some foolish moves and has not played the game well at all, but he is looking likely to stick around for a while.

-Jason "I am looking forward to the studly Keith-Ozzy-Jim challenge... make it physical and require endurance... please!" Evans

Doug.I.Am

11-15-2011, 08:26 AM

I don't think it would have mattered if Jim gave Ozzy the the necklace, they were going 1-2 and it didn't matter who went first. I do agree with you though, it would have given Ozzy one more day to try and cook something up.

Tomorrow is another double elim night. That tells me that the remaining 2, Dawn and Whitney, will be going to Redemption. Not a surprise. But I saw a flier on the possibility of Cochran yet again reversing field and heading back to his original tribe. I doubt it'll play out like that but the seed has been planted. Stay tuned.

Jason's right, this is Coach's game just as it was Boston Rob's game last year. I think Boston Rob was the better competitor but Coach is a very smart man and knows how to treat people, I mean, play people. :)

JasonEvans

11-17-2011, 10:46 AM

So, my wife and kids were frustrated at Cochran and Albert for not voting against Edna last night. I explained that their votes were contingent on Sophie agreeing to the "oust Edna" plan. Without Soph on board, Albert would not reveal he was going against his alliance and no way does Cochran cast a vote against the Coach-led group unless he knows it will work. Soph determined what would happen last night, even though the vote was 7-2.

I am torn about whether Soph should have gone along with the plan. On the one hand, I am having a hard time figuring out how deserving players like her and Albert get to the end. It sure looks like Rick and Brandon are in Coach's back pocket. We know Edna is. Why would Coach want to take Soph or Albert to the end when he can sit next to undeserving players instead? Then again, if Soph and Albert go with the other tribe, they are the bottom 2 in a 5-person alliance and they have betrayed the rest of their alliance. How is that a winning strategy?

I am tempted to think that the obvious will happen over the next few weeks with Coach carrying undeserving players like Edna or Rick, or disliked characters like Cochran or Brandon to the end, spelling doom for Albert and Sophie. But something gives me pause...

Does Coach need to keep Albert (and perhaps Sophie) around so he has strong competitors with him who can beat Ozzy if/when Oz comes back from Redemption? Imagine that Ozzy keeps winning challenges on RI -- suddenly he comes back in at the final 4 or final 5 and only needs to beat Coach, Edna, Cochran, and maybe Rick. Umm, he is gonna win and get to the finals. We all know he is unbeatable in the jury vote -- not even close. In a mildly physical challenge, I think the only people left who have a chance against him are Albert and maybe Sophie (especially if it involved balance, where I think she excels).

Of course, the alternate side of that is to send Albert to Redemption in the hope that he can beat Ozzy there. Regardless, someone is going to have to beat Oz in a challenge at some point. I think that some Survivor challenges are random or require obscure skills (like shufleboard, for example). You can beat Ozzy at those. But, if there is any physical component, Oz is a stud. Heck, there have not been many swimming challenges so far -- Oz is such a stud at those it is unfair to everyone else.

-Jason "enjoying this season" Evans

Doug.I.Am

11-17-2011, 12:24 PM

Another ho hum evening of Survivor. What we figured would happen, did. Now the fnun begins, finally.

I think you pretty much covered all the possible scenarios, Jason. Coach is obviously growing more concerned with Albert and his high jinks. The thing about Coach this year, he is much more level headed and man, can he smell a rat pronto. He knows exactly what Albert is up to. We'll have to wait and see how good of a salesman Albert is. Can he find enough support to break away? I doubt it and he could be headed to redemption soon, hopefully right after Cochran goes, the rat. Can someone explain how a guy this inept can stay in a game this long? Kudos to the young man for getting this far, but OMG, can someone please send him to see the Great Oz? :cool:

JasonEvans

11-17-2011, 03:53 PM

Kudos to the young man for getting this far, but OMG, can someone please send him to see the Great Oz? :cool:

Yeah, I want to see him sent to Redemption to see how Ozzy treats him. Oz keeps on talking about how he is going to be well fed (he is catching fish like CRAZY), rested, focused, and relaxed on RI and I believe it. He says he is going to feed everyone who comes and then dispatch them one by one. But I have to wonder if he is going to bother to feed Cochran. That would be hysterical.

I tell ya, at least Cochran is part of the game. Has there ever been a player as silent as Rick? I really don't think he has spoken to the camera more than 2 or 3 times. The dude is barely on the show!! Edna is only a tiny bit ahead of Rick... mostly because of the one episode where she seemed to be on the chopping block but Coach saved her. How can those two still be around!?!?!?

Anyone recall the first season Amber was on, when she basically just followed Jerri Manthey around and said nothing until she was eliminated in 6th place? I thought she had set the standard for under-the-radar silence... but these two make her look like a chatterbox! Whew! Talk about undeserving.

I can't really imagine that the show would edit them in such a dull way if they make it to the end and face the jury. Yawn! That is why I sorta think Coach or someone will suggest that they need to keep the tribe strong to defeat Ozzy (if he returns), making Edna and rick useless and giving us a final 5 of Coach, Brandon, Albert, and Sophie (along with whoever come back from RI). Now that would make for a couple amazing challenges and final votes.

-Jason "Of course, I can hope that will happen but we will probably end up with Cochran, Edna, and Rick at the end... blech!" Evans

Udaman

11-19-2011, 09:18 PM

I have to say the "2 of 3" go home at Redemption Island is not very fair at all. Most of the challenges there have a "luck" component thrown in anyway....and having to take out 2 other people makes it tough. Ozzie got lucky that this one was purely physical. The next one (with two women) won't be.

I'm calling it right now - Ozzie will not make it past the next Redemption Island challenge - if it's 2 of 3 go home. It will be Dawn. Again, calling it. Plus the whole "this is my Redemption Island speech" was too prominent. He's going to lose, and it stinks.

Personally, I think Albert and Sophie screwed up big time. If they had made the switch, they get the votes of Jim and Keith. And Edna goes home. Then they take out either Dawn or Whitney....and there are 7 left, and they lead 4-3. It's a much better spot to be in than what they are. Albert is going to regret his decision big time.

Unless of course, they are all tired of Brandon and there have been conversations with Coach where he says "Brandon's toast as soon as we can" that we just haven't seen.

But Albert is clearly Coach's biggest threat, and vice-versa. One of the two of them will be gone in the next two episodes, and since Coach has the immunity idol, I don't think it will be him.

JasonEvans

11-20-2011, 01:50 PM

Udaman's post made me think-- the one thing we have not really seen so far is all the "you and me and xxx to the final 3" conversations. You know those are going on. I think Albert needs to have one of these with Coach where he really appeals to Coach's honor and sense of superiority. Albert needs to say, "neither of us should try to win by sitting next to undeserving people. There is no honor in winning by sitting alongside Cochran and Edna. Right now, you and I need to make an iron-clad pact that the two of us plus... I dunno, Soph or Brandon... will be the final 3. That is the honorable thing to do. Lets get rid of Edna, Rick, and Cochran and then really have the game! Don't take the easy way out, Coach."

I am not sure if such a speech would work or if Coach would listen, but he feels like the kind of guy who might go for that. It would create a really fun final couple immunity challenges as well as a challenging jury vote. Usually, there are one or two characters who are totally undeserving in the final 3, folks who cannot get a jury vote. I would love to see the opposite this year and think Coach might be the person to agree to a deal like that.

-Jason "as previously mentioned, keeping the strong/deserving around also makes it harder for Ozzy or whoever from Redemption to make it to the end" Evans

OZZIE4DUKE

11-20-2011, 07:40 PM

Did you see today's commercial that asked "do Ozzy and Coach have a "Final 2" agreement/alliance? I did. :cool:

JasonEvans

11-21-2011, 08:40 AM

Did you see today's commercial that asked "do Ozzy and Coach have a "Final 2" agreement/alliance? I did. :cool:

Have not seen that, but it sounds like TV promo more than a real hint at what is going on in the game. If they had any kind of alliance, you would think Coach would have tried to save Ozzy from going to Redemption Island so quickly. Additionally, as I mentioned earlier, Ozzy is all but certain to win a final jury vote against anyone as he would have Whitney, Dawn, Keith, and Jim's votes locked up and could make a compelling case to others on the jury regarding his worth as a challenge stud and a fish provider. Why would Coach want to take Ozzy to the end?

-Jason "Ozzy just has too many challenges to win... I don't think he makes it to the jury vote" Evans

feldspar

11-21-2011, 11:34 PM

Ozzy is giving Russell a run for his money in the "Most Arrogant Non-Winner in Survivor History."

I think he'll automatically take over that title if he fails to sew up the win this season.

Doug.I.Am

11-22-2011, 08:48 AM

Albert needs to say, "neither of us should try to win by sitting next to undeserving people. There is no honor in winning by sitting alongside Cochran and Edna. Right now, you and I need to make an iron-clad pact that the two of us plus... I dunno, Soph or Brandon... will be the final 3. That is the honorable thing to do. Lets get rid of Edna, Rick, and Cochran and then really have the game! Don't take the easy way out, Coach."

Jason, in a perfect world, yes, this would be a great way for you and I to watch it unfold. I doubt Coach, as honorable a player as Survivor has ever seen, would go for this. A million bucks is a million bucks. No one is going to care how he got it or who he brought to the final 3 with him. If he's smart, he brings Cochran(ARGH!) and Brandon with him. He's still in full control. I'm still waiting for someone to step up and challenge him. Albert threatened last week but calmer heads prevailed.

Next order of business is getting rid of Albert, I expect to see that happen tomorrow.

Ozzie - I saw that same commercial. Two gargantuans going at it, ahhh yes. Will it happen? Probably not, but how juicy is that idea.

JasonEvans

12-02-2011, 01:02 PM

Suck on that Cochran!!!!!!

Several weeks ago Doug.I.AM and I pointed out the folly in Cochran's decision to abandon his tribe. We both felt he would have trouble getting himself in a place where he could replace members of the family/cult to get farther than 7th place. Lo and behold, he went out in 7th place.

Good riddance! I am guessing he will defend himself and still think of himself as a smart, strategic player when they talk to him in the recap episode in a few weeks, but - NEWS FLASH - he was neither smart nor strategic.

Ozzy continues to dominate at challenges. He is gonna OWN Cochran next week. At some point, the game is going to have to focus on what folks like Albert and Coach can do to stop Ozzy because if he makes it to the end, he wins... hands down.

I really liked Albert's move of giving away his reward, though I was struck by his choice of Cochran to give it to. I am getting a real sense that Albert has no strong allies among the remaining members of his tribe. It fells like there are folks who have bonded with Coach (Rick, Enda) and I just naturally figured that Albert and Sophie were tight (Brandon is tight with no one but God and his own internal demons that desperately want to cheat on his wife). But, I am increasingly getting the impression that both Albert and Sophie are on islands by themselves.

First clue-- Albert gave his reward to Cochran. If he was even moderately tight with Soph, he should have given it to her to ensure that someone he was tight with would spend their time getting closer to Coach. Second clue-- Soph was 100% against Albert when Al wanted to keep Cochran around.

I suspect Brandon, who seems to be a broken man/robot at this point, has freaked out the rest of them enough so that he likely won't make it to the end. A lot of the end game is going to depend on whether folks want to team up with deserving/strategic players (Coach, Sophie, Albert) or under-the-radar weaklings (Rick, Edna) or a lunatic (Brandon). I could see it going a number of different ways right now, despite Edna's insistence that she is next to go (we know who Brandon will be voting for next week).

-Jason "I am thinking that Coach is looking like a big, big favorite to win this thing... sorta like Boston Rob last year" Evans

Doug.I.Am

12-02-2011, 03:01 PM

Cochran, meet Ozzy. Ozzy, meet Cochran. Oh how I love it. At the very end of the telecast Cochran asks Ozzy if he has a shot in the duel. Ozzy says, "sure ya do." Then they cut away to Ozzy and he says, "He really doesn't stand a chance." Short of a Beatles trivia challenge or a Harvard law exam, the rat is going home. Ozzy is rolling everyone but he must continue to do so. He'll be the first one eliminated if he doesn't win immunity. He's probably the favorite in most challenges but Albert, Sophie and Coach stand in his way. Sophie is tough and can't be looked past.

I wonder, just pure speculation here, if the reason Al chose Cochran was he knew he was going to redemption where he would clearly be the underdog against Ozzy and be sent packing. Maybe he was thinking it could swing a vote his way? Al would be a deserving final 3 candidate, IMO. I'd LOVE to see Coach, Ozzy and Al. Three power players who in my eyes are most deserving.

I just wanna see the rat throw his buff in the fire. Make me happy, Ozzy. :D

I also want to say I'm feeling bad for Brandon. This kid has some serious issues. He's imploding right in front of everyone. I think Jason said it right, he's got some demons inside him. I've never quite seen a player tell everyone who he's voting for, not only this round, but next round too. I hope he gets help, cuz he sure needs it.

JustAFan

12-02-2011, 04:57 PM

While it is tempting to assume that Ozzy will crush Cochran in any duel, it is not automatic. I agree that a duel involving endurance, maual dexterity, or balancing will be a certain victory for Ozzy. But what if they have some sort of puzzle? With the right set of circumstances, Cochran may just have a slight advantage. I know that Ozzy won the very first challenge of the season against Coach and it was a puzzle. But maybe Cochran will get lucky with just the right puzzle challenge.

So now we move to the final phase of the game. I find the decision at this point in the season to be so critical and probably the most interesting regarding the remaining "undeserving" players like Brandon, Edna and Rick. When Survivor gets down to about a half-dozen players, the stronger players need to make a choice about whom to bring to the final Tribal. Do you bring two losers that would never get a vote? Do you bring stronger players so that the jury thinks you played a good game? You have to assess every jury member and guess how they might vote, and some of the jury are most likely members of the "other" tribe so you really don't know that all that well. It's a very complicated, multi-variable problem to solve, and made all the more difficult by the fact that you have been undernourished and slept poorly for about 30 days. It's fun to watch it unfold.

JasonEvans

12-05-2011, 10:06 AM

I also want to say I'm feeling bad for Brandon. This kid has some serious issues. He's imploding right in front of everyone. I think Jason said it right, he's got some demons inside him. I've never quite seen a player tell everyone who he's voting for, not only this round, but next round too. I hope he gets help, cuz he sure needs it.

Don't you remember Sean from season one? He voted alphabetically and told everyone he was doing so. When faced with Kelly's defection from his alliance, the great Richard Hatch was able to use his advance knowledge of Sean's vote to take out a Jenna and maintain control of the game.

Still, Sean seemed like a naive player while Brandon just seems lost and broken.

-Jason "I expect a challenge made for Cochran versus Ozzy... just to make it interesting" Evans

Udaman

12-05-2011, 12:27 PM

If Cochran beats Ozzie in the challenge, it will make Survivor a joke...if these are truly challenges for the best to survive, then there is no real setup that would favor Cochran, other than a test on Massachusetts law.

That said, I've been thinking about Cochran, and now realize (as I'm sure he does) that he made a mistake in his flip. Though I sympathize that he didn't want his fate left to the chance of drawing stones, his only real way to make it to the Final Four would have been to drawn rocks, hope Savii wins, and then after they got off 3 players, make a move with Dawn and the remaining Upolu players to break up Ozzie, Jim, Whitney and the other guy.

And yes, Brandon has some serious mental health issues going on. Kind of hard to watch, actually.

My hope is that somehow Ozzie gets back into the game, and the Final 3 if Coach, Ozzie and either Sophie or Al. Finally have a final three where all of them deserve to be there.

feldspar

12-05-2011, 04:03 PM

Doug.I.Am

12-05-2011, 04:18 PM

I'm really struggling to see why Ozzy comes off as some sympathetic character to many of you whereas Cochran is "the rat." Ozzy has made some equally bone-headed moves in this game, is short-tempered and incredibly arrogant. I'd much rather see Cochran win the whole thing than Ozzy.

A few reasons actually. Ozzy is just a better player than Cochran and, IMO, is more deserving to win. Cochran is terrible at challenges and doesn't seem to really have much "game." He basically sent his entire tribe home by flipping - this after Ozzy saved his butt by going to redemption island and taking out a rival tribe member to keep the numbers for his tribe. If he didn't offer himself up, Cochran was going home that night. Don't get me wrong, I think Cochran is a pretty neat guy with a surprisingly sharp wit. He's kinda grown on me as this season has progressed. Still, Ozzy is far more deserving.

Deslok

12-05-2011, 06:03 PM

I don't see much in the way of redeeming value of Ozzy in this season. Yes, he's a physical freak and well adapted to living out there on his own. But he has seemingly no sense of game play. Seeing the Upolu tribe come together right away and build shelter etc to make things a bit more liveable made perfect sense, and gave Coach an opportunity to be the man who could lead and make everyone's lives a bit easier. Ozzy, meh, lets just go for a swim and lie on the sand and not worry about it. Because he seems perfectly happy lying right on the sand, doing the beach bum thing and not worrying about it. The rest of his tribe didn't benefit much from that though. The entire Savaii tribe seemed like a middle school lunch room kind of thing. Ok, we're the cool kids(Ozzy, Keith, Whitney, Elyse, and somewhat Jim), and the rest of you peons just accept the fact that we are the coolest and you should grovel to our greatness. I mean really, from what you've seen, why would Cochran have any loyalty to them. He got treated like crap on a daily basis. Not saying he was a particularly useful guy for them to have, but strategically, you've got to make him feel part of things, and they made no effort to, aside from Dawn, who was one of their best players, but still wasn't part of the "in" crowd. I actually thought Cochran made the right move at the time. Not flipping, aside from the whole leaving it up to chance thing, would probably have ensured that Savaii would boot Upolu in the mirror image of what's happened, and then Cochran would be the first booted out of Savaii. Cochran's mistake was that he didn't do a good job of worming his way into Upolu. He wormed his way in with Coach, but that was it. He needed to be finding and exploiting cracks well before all the other Savaii's were gone, because by then it was too late. Cochran didn't owe Savaii much of anything, they didn't do anything to save him, they made choices with the goal of advancing their own individual causes, if that happened to result in Cochran staying around, fine, if not, too bad.
I'm also not a fan of Albert's at all. He's not a strategic player at all. He keeps wanting to do something just for the sake of doing something. If not for Sophie's input, he would have antagonized half the tribe weeks ago and been number one on the chopping block. To me, Coach and Sophie are the two deserving candidates right now out of Upolu, and there really isn't a close third from either tribe.
Brandon is really uncomfortable to watch, its like you are watching someone go through rehab - though at least in the recap episode you could get a little idea of why his rants about Mykelah didn't result in him being completely crucified.
Anyway, will be interesting to see how things turn out, seems like Brandon, finally, may be on the chopping block for the chaos he has caused. And after that... who knows.

Doug.I.Am

12-06-2011, 04:00 PM

Hey Deslok - I have to agree with you on Ozzy. He really hasn't played a very smart strategic game, or one that I can see. Sending himself to redemption took a lot of guts and could have backfired very easily. What he has going for him is his name and his ability. That alone can win him this game but it makes it much more difficult.

Cochran doesn't owe his former tribemates any loyalty BUT he, IMO, played his cards way too early. I think he should have stayed with his tribe and tried to coerce a couple others at the end to break away and give it a shot. He had Dawn at one point, I'm sure he could have talked another into it.

Al is doing well because he can win challenges. He doesn't do a lot around camp and saves his energy for the battles. The next time he doesn't win immunity he could be gone. I'd still like to see him, Coach and Ozzy for the final 3.

Sophie is my sleeper. I like what she's doing. She's making a lot of good decisions and she's tough in most challenges. Watch her.

feldspar

12-06-2011, 04:13 PM

Sending himself to redemption took a lot of guts and could have backfired very easily. What he has going for him is his name and his ability. That alone can win him this game but it makes it much more difficult.

This is why I don't really see a distinction between Ozzy and Cochran, although they are on two different sides of the fence, and Ozzy's gamble happened to pay off. They both made really big moves, and Ozzy just happened to play it right with his timing. Had Cochran been able to persuade Coach and Albert and whatshername to form a new alliance, we'd all be praising Cochran as a strategic genius with the upper hand in the game.

Doug.I.Am

12-07-2011, 09:02 AM

This is why I don't really see a distinction between Ozzy and Cochran, although they are on two different sides of the fence, and Ozzy's gamble happened to pay off. They both made really big moves, and Ozzy just happened to play it right with his timing. Had Cochran been able to persuade Coach and Albert and whatshername to form a new alliance, we'd all be praising Cochran as a strategic genius with the upper hand in the game.

Feldspar - the biggest difference, obviously, is Ozzy's ability to win challenges. Cochran simply lacks that. Like I said before, I think Cochran is a rather charming guy once you get to know him a bit, but that alone makes a trip to the end very, very difficult. You need to win immunity at some point in time.

You're exactly right, if Cochran did get Coach, Al and Sophie in his back pocket we'd all be picking our chins up off the floor....but he didn't. I'd be eating crow for a very, very long time..... :o

Now watch him eat Ozzy's lunch tonight....

JasonEvans

12-09-2011, 09:43 AM

Congrats to Survivor's producers for coming up with a virtually random challenge on Redemption Island. Thankfully, Ozzy did not fall prey to it. I wonder a bit if the editing was fudged to make it seem closer than it was. It was clear that Cochran could have won, which would have been a travesty.

The previews make it seem like Edna has an excellent chance of knocking Ozzy off too. They appear to be working on some kind of cube-puzzle. As long as the show continues to throw puzzles instead of challenges that require balance or endurance or even a little bit of coordination/strength, Ozzy can lose at any moment.

I was pleased that the family reward took place on Redemption Isle and involved interaction with the Redemption Isle landlord, Ozzy. If this is a person who can get back into the game, the other contestants need more chances to get to know them and potentially form alliances with them. The Redemption person also needs a chance to get to know the players because he has a vote on the jury. Whenever we have someone who spends a long time on Redemption, they are divorced from seeing anything about the game for a loooong time. Making them vote, when they have not even been to the tribal council updates, seems silly. I am glad the show is slowly beginning to address this (I suspect RI is not going away any time soon).

Coach making an iron-clad promise to take Ozzy to the end is mystifying. Can Coach possibly think he has a chance in a vote against Ozzy? Do the math, Coach... Whitney, Dawn, Jim, and Keith -- no way they vote for anyone over Ozzy and 4 votes is enough to win. End of story. What is Coach thinking?

I felt for Edna, but didn't she see she was odd-man out for a long time? She and Cochran were in similar positions... Cochran at least tried to make a move (a foolish one, in my opinion) and betray his tribe. Why didn't Edna do the same thing earlier in the game? Coach really was working her jury vote when he gave her the post-boot hug. I wish she would have slapped him.

I think everyone thinks they have a final-3 deal with Coach and no one is willing to rock the boat. I am stunned that we have not seen or heard more from Rick this far into the game. Is he even there? I just cannot see him being edited this way and then making the final 3. So, I am guessing that Brandon and Rick go out in the next couple votes setting up a really good final with 3 of Coach, Soph, Albert and someone coming back from Redemption. So long as Ozzy does not make the final jury vote, it will be a very interesting vote and anyone could win. I suspect that despite his strenuous efforts to no seem like the bad guy, Coach is not very popular with the jury right now. Then again, who is?

-Jason "I think Sophie may be in the best position right now" Evans

mkirsh

12-09-2011, 04:24 PM

I was pleased that the family reward took place on Redemption Isle and involved interaction with the Redemption Isle landlord, Ozzy. If this is a person who can get back into the game, the other contestants need more chances to get to know them and potentially form alliances with them. The Redemption person also needs a chance to get to know the players because he has a vote on the jury. Whenever we have someone who spends a long time on Redemption, they are divorced from seeing anything about the game for a loooong time. Making them vote, when they have not even been to the tribal council updates, seems silly. I am glad the show is slowly beginning to address this (I suspect RI is not going away any time soon).

I was kind of surprised that Ozzy selected Coach to recieve reward - I would have expected him to try to win favor with potential jury members, and he has to think that Coach is headed for final 3. Wouldn't he have been better letting Edna come with him?

Udaman

12-09-2011, 09:41 PM

The previews certainly make it look like Edna is going to win the redemption challenge. I'll say a few things about that:

1) If she does, and it's because it's some kind of puzzle game...then redemption island is a joke. Edna has done NOTHING all season long, and if she can go up and beat Ozzie at Redemption, then they might as well have them draw cards, because all that it must be is chance. Ozzie would beat Edna head to head in every single challenge that has happened thus far in any location....if she beats him this time, it's completely unfair, and my enjoyment of the show will fall dramatically.

2) That said, I can't imagine Survivor giving away a twist like that. If she really won, they would want it a complete shock, and to show it like that would be a major, major spoiler. So that makes me think that "Edna doesn't have it" solved and Ozzie will win. But it sure makes me want to watch.

3) Then again, the look on his face was one of pure desperation while he was trying to do his puzzle.

4) If it comes down to Coach versus anyone other than Ozzie, Coach is going to win a landslide, just as Boston Rob did last time. How can you not give the guy credit for holding a strong alliance.

If Edna beats Ozzie.....man, oh man

JasonEvans

12-09-2011, 10:56 PM

2) That said, I can't imagine Survivor giving away a twist like that. If she really won, they would want it a complete shock, and to show it like that would be a major, major spoiler. So that makes me think that "Edna doesn't have it" solved and Ozzie will win. But it sure makes me want to watch.

I agree.

But then again, this may be what they want us to think and Edna is going to win.

I just don't know! I guess I will have to watch ;)

-Jason "I am becoming more and more convinced that Albert, Soph, and Coach are the final 3" Evans

feldspar

12-11-2011, 03:08 AM

It was clear that Cochran could have won, which would have been a travesty.

Actually, it would have been poetic justice. Ozzy, the arrogant bully, gets knocked out by the nerd he spent all of his tribe time demeaning, in a challenge which Ozzy said only hours before Cochran had no chance of winning.

Ozzy redeemed himself a bit (just a bit) by giving Cochran some props on how close the challenge was. But he's still an arrogant, annoying player who is not very good strategically. I feel much better about myself rooting for Coach.

mkirsh

12-15-2011, 12:14 PM

Can't say I understand what is going on with this season.

A few questions:

1) If you are Coach, why do you want Brandon out of the game? Seems like Coach would rather take Rick and Brandon to the final three than Sophie or Albert, who might be viewed as more deserving candidates? Also, why would Coach vote out someone who would never write his name down, and instead keep people who should try to get him out (see question #2)? If he is trying to populate the jury with people who will vote for him, blindsiding Brandon doesn't make sense. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that Ozzie is Coach's biggest threat, and Brandon has the best chance to beat him in a duel, but this hasn't been discussed (or televised).

2) Why is everyone so willing to take Coach to the end? Do any of them think the will beat him in a jury vote? Is everyone too scared of his immunity idol? It doesn't seem like he is holding everyone with fear the way Rob did last year, so I don't get it. I would have thought Albert or Sophie would have made a bigger move a few weeks ago when they had numbers to take him out, but now he is in a great position to win, and only really Ozzie can stop him.

3) Have the last two seasons of Survivor been way more overt with religion, or am I just becoming more sensitive to it with Tebow dominating so many headlines for similar displays? Coach seems to be setting himself up to answer all jury questions with "I didn't want to vote you off, but it was just God's will so who I am to question that?" -- and I think it is going to work.

4) How furious is Brandon going to be when he watches Albert's confessionals? Albert basically lied to his face, and used "spiritual bond" talk as cover to totally manipulate him. Coach is manipulating him as well, but is much better at hiding it.

Coach probably deserves to win at this point. He is a much better player than I ever gave him credit for, although you can see between this season and last what a huge advantage playing the game multiple times before gives contestants. However, I'm rooting for someone else just so the last 2 hours will bring some suspense.

JasonEvans

12-15-2011, 12:37 PM

Lets get this out of the way-- Brandon made what appears to be one of the stupidest moves in Survivor history. He gave up an immunity idol and promptly got voted out. That is always dumb.

But, I am going to argue that it may not have been as foolish as it seems. Brandon may have sensed that he was a strong threat to win at the end, something we at home were not aware of but something that appeared to be true given the conversations we heard on this weeks' show. As a strong threat to win over the jury, he had to know there could be a target on his back. Unless he felt confident about winning the next few immunity challenges, he had to make a move to solidify a core alliance to go to the end. What better way to make that move than to save Albert from the chopping block and simultaneously put huge pressure on Coach NOT to vote for him. I actually think he could have done even more to pressure Coach. He could have spoken directly to the jury about his faith in Coach and how Coach would be a total backstabbing traitor if Coach voted Brandon out at this point.

Of course, all the above removes God from the conversation. Coach has found the ultimate "cover" for his backstabbing by saying "God told me to." Personally, I am a little sick of people who think God plays an active role in how they perform in a silly reality TV show, but God did give Coach a perfect excuse to eliminate one of the biggest threats in the game. Sheesh!

Brandon versus Ozzy will be an interesting matchup. Brandon is the best competitor Ozzy has had to face since he took out Jim and Keithe a while ago. I cracked up at Coach and Sophie talking about how Ozzy has been feeding everyone on Redemption making Coach a big threat if he makes the jury vote. Uhhhh, DUUHH! His alliance has the majority of the jury and he has had to single-handedly win his way to the end. He could be torturing the Redemption Island folks by singing Lady Gag songs all day and he'd still be the easy choice for at least half of the jury!

Anyway, one of Ozzy/Brandon will come back into the game and promptly be the target of the next boot. It will be must win for either of them. While we all think of Ozzy as an amazing challenge competitor, even if he beats Brandon he will face a huge uphill to win the next two challenges and make the end. The first of those challenges will be 4-on-1 (and I suppose it is even possible that the 4 may be able to team up against Ozzy in some way). If he wins that, he has to win a 3-on-1 challenge. His Redemption Island face-offs have all be 1-on-1 or 2-on-1. Adding additional competitors only adds to the chance that Ozzy finally meets his match. I just don't think he can quite get to the end.

To me the one sure-thing right now is Coach. I just can't see a scenario where he is not in the final 3. Albert is clearly on the outside looking in when it comes to the rest of the players but, if they all band together to take out Ozzy or Brandon next, he merely has to win one endurance challenge over Coach, Sophie, and Cowboy (and he is clearly much more physically fit than all 3 of them) to make the Final 3. I think he may have a somewhat compelling case to the jury at that time because he was open to making moves to work with many of the eliminated players, they just could not find the extra pieces to make those moves work. I also think he will be eloquent and think well on his feet when facing jury questions. I would see Sophie as the biggest threat to him in the final 3. She seems smart and I don't think anyone on the jury really hates her. I think a lot of the jury will hate Coach as the ringleader and someone who tried too hard to be nice while still stabbing you in the back. That tactic rarely works.

All I know is that if Cowboy Rick is a real player at the end, I will be furious. his brief argument with Albert this week was the most we have seen him talk during the entire series. Please, please, please do not let him be one of the choices of the jury!!

-Jason "Jason's odds of winning: Sophie 35%, Albert 25%, Ozzy 15% (100% if he makes the final 3), Coach 10%, Brandon 10% (75% if he makes the final 3), Rick 5%" Evans

mkirsh

12-15-2011, 01:34 PM

-Jason "Jason's odds of winning: Sophie 35%, Albert 25%, Ozzy 15% (100% if he makes the final 3), Coach 10%, Brandon 10% (75% if he makes the final 3), Rick 5%" Evans

Jason - why do you think Albert or Sophie are more likely to win the jury over than Coach? I don't think anyone on the other tribe has any ill will towards him, and he will play the "I played the game with honor, integrity, and faith. I kept my word to my initial alliance of 5, and voted off weaker players (like Edna) to keep that word even if it wasn't in my best interest. I was the leader of the group despite having a target on my back from day 1 (Christine), but managed to keep our tribe strong without backstabbing. Once we got to 5 I was very conflicted, but prayed a lot and did what I thought was the most honorable thing to do, yada, yada, yada."

Of the jury, only Edna is a definite anti-coach vote and likely Brandon (although coach may Jedi (or Jesus) mind trick him, so no telling how he will vote, and most likely would vote against Albert first), so despite him being the "ringleader" I suspect some might favor him for taking command of the game, and view Albert/Sophie as more of tag-along players. Also, Albert has pissed off many of his own tribe with flip flopping and outright lying, and will most assuredly be called out in front of the jury as taking the necklace from Brandon when he knew he was in danger (actually not sure why Rick or Sophie didn't call his bluff last night -"Albert, I am voting for Brandon, so he is at risk. Will you do what you said and give him immunity back?"). Sophie, in my opinion, is the only player other than Coach who has a shot, and people will ask her "what did you do to get here" and "why do you deserve this" and I don't think she will have a compelling answer.

JasonEvans

12-15-2011, 05:04 PM

mkirch,

I don't know why, but I get a feeling Coach has been edited a lot nicer than the players in the game see him. If you think back to moves that Cochran, Edna, Dawn, and others made to stay in the game and each time the move depended on Coach coming on board... each time he failed to go along with the deal. I also feel like everyone thinks they are in an alliance with him. Well, that means a lot of the jury feels like Coach betrayed them or failed to protect them. Heck, he even foolishly made a promise to Ozzy to take Oz to the end, something he cannot do if he wants to win the game.

Let me put it to you this way -- who can you count on to vote for Coach? Brandon, Ozzy, Edna, and Cochran will all feel betrayed by him and blame him for them not going further in the game. I cannot predict how Jim, Keith, Whitney, or Dawn will vote when it comes to Coach, but I see no reason for them to appreciably favor him over Albert or Sophie. Lets not forget that everyone sees Coach as the leader of the alliance that controlled the game. If they blame anyone for their loss, it is likely Coach (though some blame Cochran, but he ain't in the finals).

As for Sophie, I think she will be seen as someone who did not coast through the game -- she was very strong at challenges -- but not someone who was mean or a backstabber. I can't think of anyone who would look at her as an enemy or feel betrayed by her. I think everyone on the jury, especially the women, will admire Sophie's physical strength in the game. So, she will be seen as smart, strategic, honorable, and strong. How is she not a major candidate to win?

Albert has a tougher road. I think folks may see him as too scheming. I am betting he would have real trouble getting votes over Sophie (for example) from his former alliance-mates. But, he may do well with the folks ousted early on the jury. He was willing to work with Dawn and Cochran, even though they could not get anything arranged. He is now clearly on the outside looking in at the core alliance controlling the game, which may win his some points with folks on the jury who were earlier victims of that alliance.

Rick won't get any votes. I don't see anyone voting for him unless there is something going on behind the scenes that we have not seen.

-Jason "that is my rundown... I am probably dead wrong" Evans

AtlBluRew

12-15-2011, 10:46 PM

mkirch,

Let me put it to you this way -- who can you count on to vote for Coach? Brandon, Ozzy, Edna, and Cochran will all feel betrayed by him and blame him for them not going further in the game. I cannot predict how Jim, Keith, Whitney, or Dawn will vote when it comes to Coach, but I see no reason for them to appreciably favor him over Albert or Sophie. Lets not forget that everyone sees Coach as the leader of the alliance that controlled the game. If they blame anyone for their loss, it is likely Coach (though some blame Cochran, but he ain't in the finals).

Jason, I think you're wrong about Brandon and Cochran. Brandon completely bought into Coach's blaming god for his vote. He hugged Coach, and only Coach, and Coach whispered, "It's god's will." He already laid the foundation for that in Tribal, and Brandon bought it. Brandon will vote for Coach. No question.

Cochran may feel that he was owed more, but he knows he wasn't going to last more than another day. He knows he was the outsider and seems to accept that he made the mistake. I think Cochran votes for Coach.

I think that Edna votes for Coach too. She certainly doesn't pick another of her own tribe over Coach. Maybe she'd vote for Ozzy, but she's a loyal type, a follower, and I think she votes for Coach.

So, IMO he has 3 votes on the jury.

Doug.I.Am

12-16-2011, 09:28 AM

I've been wrong many, many, MANY times when it comes to picking a winner on this show. With that out of the way, I definitely see Coach getting enough votes for the simple fact he was the driving force behind this juggernaut since day 1. This is not unlike what Boston Rob did last year with the exception Rob was a much better competitor in challenges. Personally, the only guy who I think beats him is Ozzy who is going to have his hands full with Brandon. I hear ya Jason, we NEED a good physical challenge, especially now.

I like Sophie's game, a lot. I just wonder if she'll most likely be a side show to Coach and whoever else gets there. I think she needed to make at least one big move to giver her merit. She's much like Edna who didn't make many waves and hid behind Coach. One thing that separates her from Edna though is her physical ability. That alone could get her to the final 3.

Lastly - Brandon!! Really, Brandon? Really? My gosh what were you thinking. I sort of buy Jason's reason for what he did but now he has to face Ozzy to stay in the game. I think he may have had better odds staying put. He's a very perplexing young man. :confused:

1 24 90

12-18-2011, 10:49 PM

Congrats to Sophie. She deserved the win if for no other reason that she is the only one to knock off Ozzy.

Doug.I.Am

12-19-2011, 08:39 AM

Well, well, well. She probably did earn it as much as anyone although I think Coach probably deserved it more UNTIL he threw himself under the bridge at final fribal. It was almost like a mini-Brandon scene. But give Sophie props, she beat Oz when it mattered most. I can't believe he gave up that lead, especially considering the fact he was doing a puzzle. I did like the final immunity challenge because it had both a phsyical and mental side to it.

Did anyone else feel bad for Brandon when he mentioned no one else from his family attended? What else can they throw at this poor guy? Good to see his evil uncle showed up. Wonder if he'll be on the next show? BTW, I didn't stay up for the last part of it - where is the next Survivor going to be?

Good season, I like having 2 former players come back and lead their respective tribes...

JasonEvans

12-19-2011, 10:19 AM

Brandon versus Russell would suck. Russell is poison at this point. No one wants to be on his team. He'd be voted out quick. Lest we forget, Brandon was not a very compelling character this year -- mostly just watching an emotional train wreck. I'd much rather see other former players ahead of these two.

I think Coach actually did a good job with the jury. I suspect almost everyone up there had it in their head that they were not going to vote for him yet he managed to get 3 votes and I suspect he had several other people teetering on the edge of voting for him as well. I thought Coach did a good job of accepting blame and seeming genuinely contrite to the jury. That is something the jury wants to hear yet rarely gets to hear. By comparison, I thought Albert was TERRIBLE with the jury and got zero votes as a result.

I was glad Edna had the stones to stand up and say something that always bothers me about the jury faceoff. Yes, these finalists backstabbed and lied and did all kinds of other deceitful things to get to the finals... but that is what the game takes. It is almost impossible to reach the finals without making a lot of enemies because everyone else wants to be where you are sitting. I wish some finalist would stand up and just own up to what it takes to win Survivor and tell the jury that, "YES I BACKSTABBED! But let me ask each of you, if you could stab me in the back right now and be sitting here instead of over there, wouldn't you do it?"

Sophie does get mad props for winning the challenge with Ozzy, but it was clear to me that Ozzy just froze. That puzzle was hard, but not super hard. He let a huge lead evaporate and it cost him a million. You knew he would win the $100k player of the year award though so he did not come away empty-handed.

Still Sophie is a deserving winner of the game. She was strategic and was one of the finest female challenge contestants we've seen in a while.

By the way, here is my quick and dirty writeup (http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2011/12/18/survivor-south-pacific-finale-who-won/) on the final for the Wall Street Journal.

-Jason "I bet we get zero returning players next season" Evans

feldspar

12-19-2011, 10:34 AM

I'm glad Sophie won. I was even happier that Albert got demolished in the final Tribal and in the vote. He deserved every bit of it.

I wish Coach would have had the cojones to stand up at the final Tribal and just say "You all fell for my 'honor and integrity' bit, and that's why I'm sitting here today." He would have won by a landslide.

I'm glad I don't have to watch Ozzy anymore. I'm still befuddled by his popularity. Sure, he's a great physical competitor, but the guy has ZERO strategic skills. I mean ZERO. Outing Coach at Tribal was just about the dumbest thing he could have done, and he did it partly because he thought he was invincible in the immunity challenges and he was going to be sitting in the final 3 at the end anyway, and wanted to get some early points on Coach. I just don't understand how real fans of Survivor like this guy. He's just not that good at the game, and if it hadn't been for Redemption Island, which most agree is a pretty lame twist that allows unworthy competitors to stay in the game longer, he wouldn't have even come close to sniffing the final three.

Doug.I.Am

12-19-2011, 11:20 AM

Feldspar - That's exactly why he called Coach on it at tribal - to expose him in front of the jury. I actually thought it was a decent move assuming he'd win immunity, but alas, Sophie came back and won it. I would have liked Coach to cast a vote for Oz and Al to make fire. It would have been the "admirable and honorable" thing to do, plus great theatre. It probably would have been a whitewash but fun, nonetheless.

Jason - nice write-up in the journal. The reason I didn't like what Coach said was the fact he admitted to everyone he was an idiot and went against everything he believes in to get to the final 3. Now, obviously you need to lie thru your teeth to win this game but you need to do it in a quiet way and control the damage as best you can. Boston Rob was very good at this. This is a very difficult game to win as there really isn't a clear and concise way to play it. Can't wait for the next one.

PS - For all the ladies out here - Cochran is still very single.

1 24 90

12-19-2011, 12:14 PM

brumby041

12-19-2011, 12:52 PM

Personally, I am a little sick of people who think God plays an active role in how they perform in a silly reality TV show,

This.

JasonEvans

12-19-2011, 02:45 PM

Jason - nice write-up in the journal. The reason I didn't like what Coach said was the fact he admitted to everyone he was an idiot and went against everything he believes in to get to the final 3. Now, obviously you need to lie thru your teeth to win this game but you need to do it in a quiet way and control the damage as best you can. Boston Rob was very good at this. This is a very difficult game to win as there really isn't a clear and concise way to play it. Can't wait for the next one.

Ehhh, I had to dash off the thing for the Journal in like 10 minutes. I didn't even get to proof it. Speed was of the essence there.

You have hit on the thing I dislike the most about Survivor -- that the person who engineers their way to the end finds it almost impossible to win. I think, more often than not, the person who came in 2nd is the best player in the game. Tina beating Colby, Amber over Rob, Danni over Stephanie, Yul over Ozzy, Natalie over Russell, and then Sandra over Parvatti and Russell. Far too often, the jury consists of folks who are bitter and unable to see that they got played by the most deserving person still around at the end. It is pretty clear that the best strategy is to coast along in the wake of a leader rather than being a leader yourself. Of course, the problem with that is that you often leave your fate up to chance and just hope that the leader is leading you the right way (instead of actually leading yourself).

Ahh well, that is how it has been for a long time and it is how it will stay. Such is the reality of human nature on reality TV shows. I suppose a fan vote for the winner would put so much emphasis on the editing of the show and essentially would allow the producers to pick the winner. I am not a fan of that.

One thing I would like-- I'd love to see the challenges better reflect survival skills rather than randomly running through crazy mazes all the time.

-Jason "Russell's anger at Brandon really made Russ look bad... allow the kid to play the game his way. Russell has too much pride" Evans

AtlBluRew

12-19-2011, 03:24 PM

In case anyone is interested, according to wiki the 3 people who voted for Coach were Cochran (which we saw), Brandon & Jim. All others voted for Sophie.

It drives me nuts that they never show us how the voting went down in the final tribal council. Certainly, that would have been better than talking to Russell.

Brandon is such a sap. Voting for Coach shows that he bought into that whole "god made me do it" crap that Coach gave him after voting to send him to Redemption.

1 24 90

12-19-2011, 03:36 PM

Brandon is such a sap. Voting for Coach shows that he bought into that whole "god made me do it" crap that Coach gave him after voting to send him to Redemption.

As a follow up, I just read an article that interviewed Sophie and she said that Edna voted for Coach and she thinks Rick was the 3rd vote. Somewhere in the comments it said that Brandon voted for Sophie so wiki may (shockingly) be incorrect.

This is why I am so frustrated that they never show us the final voting!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Udaman

12-20-2011, 08:53 AM

This was, to me, a really enjoyable season - best since Heroes v. Villains, and the best other than that in at least a few years. For that, I am happy.

I'll say a few things about a few people:

1) Coach. JE, I think, was definitely right in that the people on the island clearly did not like Coach all that much. There was some pure animosity towards him. And yes, I agree with Cochran that Coach played a good game...but using the religion think was pretty awful. What he said to Ozzie, "I'm a Christian man, and I give you my word" can really, really make some people mad. That's the kind of thing Russell did. At the end of the last Tribal Council, I knew that Coach was going to lose. You can't say, "I'm going to play this time with honor," and then do the exact opposite for the last four votes - not if you expect to win.

2) Ozzie. It broke my heart when he lost. I think the challenges are a little bit stupid, really. The first part, the physical part, really meant nothing, as Ozzie dominated that and had nothing to show for it at all. And it wasn't really a puzzle. It was a spatial ability test. Ozzie joins with Colby as they greatest players never to win. Of course he did get $100K, which is not terrible...but still.

3) Albert. I think this is the 4th out of 5 times where the 3rd person in the final group has gotten zero votes, which proves that it's a wasted position. Though I guess they have to do it, or the final two becomes a game of chance with whoever wins the last immunity. I think they need to start making it where 2 of the final 4 can win immunity. That would make it more interesting, for sure. Albert was pretty much a nothing, and Brandon destroyed him at the end, because Rick must have told him, "Of course Albert knew that you were going home, we all talked about it."

4) Sophie. Yawn. Yeah, she was a competitor, but overall just didn't do that much for me.

5) Cochran. I thought Ozzie made the 2nd best comment last night about what he could have done differently, which was to give his hidden immunity idol to Cochran at the merge, to ensure that he lasted. It might not have made a difference, but it might have. I like Cochran. His comments at the reunion were wonderful. He will definitely be back on a future Survivor. No doubt about it.

6) Jim. He made the best comment - "That I always thought everyone was out here to win, but in fact, some are just out here to advance. You have to understand people's motivations.

7) Brandon. That guy has lived a tough life. For none of his family to show up is just shocking. Russell's comments made him look like a complete and total sleezeball. No wonder Brandon has turned to God...his family is full of demons.

Lastly, I agree with JE (again) about the brutal comments made during the last Tribal Council. It's the Achilles Heel of the show - that people have to manipulate in order to get to the end, and that makes everyone angry that got manipulated. I will disagree though with the last thing JE said - it would NOT help if someone stood up and said, "Yeah, I manipulated all of you, but which one of you wouldn't do the same to be where I am right now." If they did, the people would say, "I wouldn't. That's what makes you and me different." See Rupert, and Jim, and Ozzie, etc, etc. It's because only the truly ruthless can do it the right way, and not everyone can be like that. But when they were all getting blasted, I thought back to last year when Boston Rob whispered to the other two, "Don't worry, they'll be all smiles when this is over." Which is true. It's a game. And after the game, most everyone gets along - even Cochran said, "I love these guys now. We're all good." and for the most part, I believe that. Being on the show makes you part of a unique family, and they really do bond afterwards (for the most part). It's why I think being on Survivor would be amazing. Though I could never do it (can't sleep without white noise, and never really liked camping).

DevilBen02

12-20-2011, 12:44 PM

I actually booed when Sophie was announced as the winner. Throughout the season, she just seemed to coast within her alliance, so other than being in the right place on the beach on the first day and winning a few individual challenges, I didn't see her as doing anything to position herself in the game.

After thinking back, though, I think that maintaining the solidity of her alliance of 5, particularly by keeping Albert from making any of the big moves he contemplated to shake things up, was a shrewd strategy. As a result, she was certainly no Boston Rob, but in a game of mostly unlikable characters, I feel that she was a worthy winner.

johnb

12-20-2011, 02:20 PM

The religious stuff was interesting. Having left Texas for New York City many years ago, I've become unaccustomed to anyone being so overtly Christian.

Ozzie's biggest lapse was treating Cochran (and Sophie) dismissively. Hasn't he learned that everyone gets to vote?

I'd have liked Sophie to attribute her victory at least in part to luck.

Brandon has lived a tough life, but he is masochistic; he brings much of it on himself, and he smiles while it's happening. Even the bit about no one in his family being there. Boo hoo. His wife and kids presumably would have come if he'd wanted, and his uncle was there. Did they give him grief about how he played? Well, heck, he screwed up at the end, plus he whined throughout.

Coach coulda won if he'd said just a little less. The promise to Ozzy was stupid, but he made the right choice in not letting Ozzy into the final 3; it was his only chance. Maybe his best chance was to have 2 really weak finalists (Albert plus either Rick or Edna come to mind).

OZZIE4DUKE

12-20-2011, 04:38 PM

Note to Udaman and johnb: I neither broke your heart nor had any lapses. Ozzy did! :cool:

On that note, Coach screwed up when he voted out Rick instead of Sophie two Tribal's earlier. It cost either him, or Ozzy, the game and $1,000,000.

JasonEvans

12-21-2011, 09:26 AM

On that note, Coach screwed up when he voted out Rick instead of Sophie two Tribal's earlier. It cost either him, or Ozzy, the game and $1,000,000.

Well, I think we did not see it but I suspect that Rick was very beloved by the jury and would have beaten anyone but Ozzy in a final vote. Of course, Rick instead of Sophie in the final 4 would have likely allowed Ozzy to waltz to the finals. Ozzy spoke the truth when he said that Sophie was the only person with a chance to beat him in an immunity challenge.

Ozzy made a big mistake when he dissed Coach and outed his "Christian Man" promise to take Oz to the finals. There were a couple times in the game where Coach had to make a strategic decision that went against his "honorable" word. The first time, he had to take Brandon out and was able to use "I prayed on it and God told me to vote this way" as an excuse. The second time, he was able to use Ozzy's betrayal of their secret as cover. I don't know why Ozzy told everyone about Coach's promise. I cannot think of any way it helped Ozzy.

If Ozzy had not betrayed Coach like that, he could have gone to Coach after losing the challenge to Sophie and told Coach, "you better keep your word, 'as a Christian Man,' or I will tell everyone about your lie to me and how you took the Lord's name in vain." Hearing that, Coach would have no choice but to vote to keep Oz around which would have meant an Oz vs. Albert fire-building contest. There is little question in my mind which guy would have won that competition.

-Jason "can't wait for the next Survivor! Bring it on, Season 24!" Evans

Doug.I.Am

12-21-2011, 09:48 AM

If Ozzy had not betrayed Coach like that, he could have gone to Coach after losing the challenge to Sophie and told Coach, "you better keep your word, 'as a Christian Man,' or I will tell everyone about your lie to me and how you took the Lord's name in vain." Hearing that, Coach would have no choice but to vote to keep Oz around which would have meant an Oz vs. Albert fire-building contest. There is little question in my mind which guy would have won that competition.

Jason, didn't he(Oz) already tell Al about the deal Coach made with him and didn't Al already go to Coach asking him about it? Secondly, I don't think giving Coach an ultimatum would work too well. Coach was smart enough to realize Oz would have won this by a landslide if he got to the final 3. I really doubt Coach ever gave it serious thought to keep Oz around any longer than he had to.

Ozzie(our Ozzie) was right, Coach should have dispatched Sophie long ago when he had the chance. A huge blunder.

Hearing the next Survivor will pit the guys v. the gals. Did anyone else get wind of that?

mkirsh

12-21-2011, 01:29 PM

Ozzy made a big mistake when he dissed Coach and outed his "Christian Man" promise to take Oz to the finals. There were a couple times in the game where Coach had to make a strategic decision that went against his "honorable" word. The first time, he had to take Brandon out and was able to use "I prayed on it and God told me to vote this way" as an excuse. The second time, he was able to use Ozzy's betrayal of their secret as cover. I don't know why Ozzy told everyone about Coach's promise. I cannot think of any way it helped Ozzy.

I think he did this for 3 reasons - first, to create as much chaos as possible, so that Albert or Sophie might think Coach would turn on them and they might potentially vote with Ozzy (pretty unlikely though). Second, Ozzy thought that if he won the final challenge Coach might be his biggest jury threat, and he was trying to call out Coach as a liar early in front of the jury by showing a promise everyone knew he would not keep. And third, I think he was trying to paint Coach into a corner in front of the jury in case he lost the challenge - either Coach takes Ozzy and lives up to his word, or he knows has to go back and show a lie to the jury. Maybe Ozzy could have waited until the next tribal to do this, but I didn't think it was a horrendous move on his part.

JE - props by the way on pegging Sophie last week. I had thought the jury would view her as a coattails player and dismissed her chances, but you nailed it.