538: Duke Has More Football Fans Than Maryland

[Duke09]

great read

2059

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/

[94duke]

great read

2059

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/

So if I'm reading this correctly, Rutgers totally owns the NY market for CFB.

2060

maybe my post belongs in the expansion thread where people can talk about Rutgers?

[DueBlevil]

That was a great article. It would be interesting to see the same analysis with college basketball

[sagegrouse]

great read

2059

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/

While Duke is #51 among college football programs, if you divide the number of fans by the average number of wins in the past ten years (2.2), the number of fans per win is about 250,000. Whereas many of the top teams, with 2-3 million fans and ten wins per year, have about the same ratio. Just think how many fans Duke will have when it is winning 9-10 games per year.

sagegrouse

[fan345678]

So if I'm reading this correctly, Rutgers totally owns the NY market for CFB.

2060

maybe my post belongs in the expansion thread where people can talk about Rutgers?

I hesitate to trust that article. It listed FSU as having the eighth-largest football fan base...in the ACC! It also found GT's to be larger than VT and UNC, and NCSU to be 11th in the conference (behind Duke? what?). The other conferences make a little more sense, but still...FSU with the ACC's eighth-largest fan base for football?

[WakeDevil]

Read the comments. Lots of people don't buy those numbers. NC State is bigger than Duke and has much more interest in football. Then there are the Alabama/Auburn and GT/GA comparisons. The site proprietors don't make great claims for the accuracy of the methodology.

[NovaScotian]

So if I'm reading this correctly, Rutgers totally owns the NY market for CFB.

2060

maybe my post belongs in the expansion thread where people can talk about Rutgers?

i don't think you're reading that quite correctly - while it's clear that rutgers is the most popular team in new york (20% of college football plans), silver makes it clear to distinguish between having a plurality of fans and really 'owning' a market. he uses omaha as an example where over 70% of the college football fans, and over 30% of the entire population root for nebraska. furthermore, only 3% of people in the new york market are rutgers fans. though they are the most, i don't think that counts as owning anything.

[CDu]

I hesitate to trust that article. It listed FSU as having the eighth-largest football fan base...in the ACC! It also found GT's to be larger than VT and UNC, and NCSU to be 11th in the conference (behind Duke? what?). The other conferences make a little more sense, but still...FSU with the ACC's eighth-largest fan base for football?

I'm less inclined to think FSU's ranking is crazy actually. The schools ahead of FSU are all either public universities or private schools in very large markets (Miami) or both (Georgia Tech, BC). And some of those have very little competition for their markets. FSU is a large, successful, public school, but it is in a very small local market and competes with Alabama and Auburn to the West and Georgia and Florida to the East for that local market. The big markets in Florida (Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando) are very much not predominantly FSU markets). I am not shocked that UVa, BC, Miami, Clemson, UNC, and maybe even the Tech schools would have larger fan bases (nor would I be shocked if FSU's fan base was larger than any one of those schools either). Miami and Ga Tech are the only ones that I'd quibble a ton over (I think Silver is overestimating the city effect - I do wonder if Atlanta and Miami are Tech/Miami leans as much as he's suggesting).

The NC State/Duke thing is strange, though. I'm guessing that's because UNC gets most of the local market (reducing the impact of State's theoretical in-state advantage). Even still, I'd be inclined to believe that's an underestimate for State fans and an overestimate for Duke (football) fans, and probably a misallocation of the local fan base for football.

That said, I'm guessing there's some misallocation of local markets. I do question Auburn ranking ahead of Alabama. I'd say that state is much more of an Alabama lean.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm less inclined to think FSU's ranking is crazy actually. The schools ahead of FSU are all either public universities or private schools in very large markets (Miami) or both (Georgia Tech, BC). And some of those have very little competition for their markets. FSU is a large, successful, public school, but it is in a very small local market and competes with Alabama and Auburn to the West and Georgia and Florida to the East for that local market. The big markets in Florida (Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando) are very much not predominantly FSU markets). I am not shocked that UVa, BC, Miami, Clemson, UNC, and maybe even the Tech schools would have larger fan bases (nor would I be shocked if FSU's fan base was larger than any one of those schools either). Miami and Ga Tech are the only ones that I'd quibble a ton over (I think Silver is overestimating the city effect - I do wonder if Atlanta and Miami are Tech/Miami leans as much as he's suggesting).

The NC State/Duke thing is strange, though. I'm guessing that's because UNC gets most of the local market (reducing the impact of State's theoretical in-state advantage). Even still, I'd be inclined to believe that's an underestimate for State fans and an overestimate for Duke (football) fans, and probably a misallocation of the local fan base for football.

That said, I'm guessing there's some misallocation of local markets. I do question Auburn ranking ahead of Alabama. I'd say that state is much more of an Alabama lean.

As much as I'd like to believe that Duke has a bigger fan base than NC State (or Maryland!), I have to say: "You've got to be kidding me."

I really don't get the State-Duke comparison -- the two schools are in the same market, State is the largest school in the state, and Duke football has few fans outside Durham.

As for FSU-Miami -- yeah, Miami is in a much bigger market, but shouldn't the evidence that Miami plays to 60 percent capacity (over the last five years; even in their glory years, they rarely sold out the Orange Bowl -- only for the big games), while FSU plays to 98 percent capacity (in a larger stadium) indicate something? State schools are (1) usually bigger enrollments and (2) almost always have more non-alumni fans (the famous Wal-Mart fans). From personal experience, Miami has a nice fan base in Miami, but not much outside the area. FSU has strong fan bases in every major city in the state, including Miami.

The Georgia-Georgia Tech comparison is similar. Tech is IN Atlanta, while Georgia is an hour outside of town, but Atlanta is a Georgia town. No way that Georgia Tech has anywhere near as large a fan base.

Those are situations where I am confident that Silver is dead wrong. I'm sure there are others.

[CDu]

As much as I'd like to believe that Duke has a bigger fan base than NC State (or Maryland!), I have to say: "You've got to be kidding me."

I really don't get the State-Duke comparison -- the two schools are in the same market, State is the largest school in the state, and Duke football has few fans outside Durham.

As for FSU-Miami -- yeah, Miami is in a much bigger market, but shouldn't the evidence that Miami plays to 60 percent capacity (over the last five years; even in their glory years, they rarely sold out the Orange Bowl -- only for the big games), while FSU plays to 98 percent capacity (in a larger stadium) indicate something? State schools are (1) usually bigger enrollments and (2) almost always have more non-alumni fans (the famous Wal-Mart fans). From personal experience, Miami has a nice fan base in Miami, but not much outside the area. FSU has strong fan bases in every major city in the state, including Miami.

The Georgia-Georgia Tech comparison is similar. Tech is IN Atlanta, while Georgia is an hour outside of town, but Atlanta is a Georgia town. No way that Georgia Tech has anywhere near as large a fan base.

Those are situations where I am confident that Silver is dead wrong. I'm sure there are others.

Yeah, as I said, I think Ga Tech and Miami are the questionable ones for the ACC (aside from the Duke/State thing). I think Miami has a lot of local area fans who don't attend football games (i.e., a not-wealthy demographic). But outside of the area, nobody in Florida cares about them. And as you said, I think Georgia is far and away the larger market .

I also mentioned the Auburn/Alabama thing. I get the sense that Alabama has a much larger fan base in state than Auburn.

To be fair, Silver isn't the one doing the survey to determine the allocation of fans within a market - some other site is doing that. And the results are heavily based on that survey, which appears to have suspect results.

But both parts of the analysis (the estimation of number of college football fans in a market AND the allocation of those fans within that market) seem a bit suspect.

[Duke09]

I think you guys are getting too wrapped up with tv markets and underestimating national effects. Miami has a large following outside their alumni and even TV markets, much as you'll see kids on the other side of the country wear UNC gear despite no connection to the school. Miami was the badass program for the 80s and 90s and people became fans back then still are. Notre Dame is the same way, small private school with national following though for very different reasons. The fact UM holds down NY so well is a testament to it's nationally following, not to the number of alumni in the city. Also, being a private school fans are more likely to be spread around the country than localized in a state like a public institution.

I am from Miami and probably biased, but FSU runs behind UF locally, because it is smaller (30k<50k) and UF is the state flagship. I do not know FSU fans outside of alumni/Tallahasee because UF cleans up the state and UM holds down the population centers in South Florida pretty well.

I could see NC State fans just so demoralized that they don't really follow their program while Duke fans tend to be more direhard. NC, as we all know, is a basketball sports.


Yeah, as I said, I think Ga Tech and Miami are the questionable ones for the ACC (aside from the Duke/State thing). I think Miami has a lot of local area fans who don't attend football games (i.e., a not-wealthy demographic). But outside of the area, nobody in Florida cares about them. And as you said, I think Georgia is far and away the larger market .

I also mentioned the Auburn/Alabama thing. I get the sense that Alabama has a much larger fan base in state than Auburn.

To be fair, Silver isn't the one doing the survey to determine the allocation of fans within a market - some other site is doing that. And the results are heavily based on that survey, which appears to have suspect results.

But both parts of the analysis (the estimation of number of college football fans in a market AND the allocation of those fans within that market) seem a bit suspect.

[Wander]

My guess is there are a ton of Duke basketball fans who listed Duke as their favorite team, but in reality probably don't follow football that much or spend much money on it.

[loldevilz]

While Duke is #51 among college football programs, if you divide the number of fans by the average number of wins in the past ten years (2.2), the number of fans per win is about 250,000. Whereas many of the top teams, with 2-3 million fans and ten wins per year, have about the same ratio. Just think how many fans Duke will have when it is winning 9-10 games per year.

sagegrouse

I lol'd

[-jk]

As I read his analysis, he crunches three sets of data: Google metrics, a self-reported fan census, and revenues reported to Uncle Sam.

Then he tries to correct them: "Teams that had a significantly higher- or lower-than-expected number of fans in the CommonCensus results in comparison to their revenues had their results adjusted accordingly."

I'll grant Google's metrics are probably a reasonable starting point. But, not only does his analysis depend on fans self-reporting support (an almost useless survey methodology), it also depends on schools self-reporting revenues by sport. And we know schools routinely shift funds around their athletic budgets for their own ends.

From the gov't database he cited (and in round numbers), Duke reported $16mm in football revenue, NCSU $22mm, FSU $19mm, and Maryland $12mm.

So just how did Duke arrive at $16mm in football revenue - fully 1/3 more than MD? A bookkeeping entry for the cost of scholarships? Our ticket sales certainly aren't that high (yet!) and we share the same TV package as the rest of the conference. How much of Iron Dukes giving counts for football vs. basketball? Was there a one time entry? Much as our football fans are passionate, the serious contributions are to get into Cameron. We're putting something on the football line that just doesn't seem to compare to MD.

If he was using general sports revenues for his corrections, his methodology is even more screwed up. (Duke $68mm; NCSU $50mm; FSU $75mm; MD $51mm)

So, as much as I respect Nate Silver (and had a good laugh with a MD neighbor), GIGO.

-jk

[CDu]

My guess is there are a ton of Duke basketball fans who listed Duke as their favorite team, but in reality probably don't follow football that much or spend much money on it.

I could definitely buy that. I could also buy that all of the data points used are flawed (beyond just that some folks lazily responded for their basketball loyalties).

[CDu]

I think you guys are getting too wrapped up with tv markets and underestimating national effects. Miami has a large following outside their alumni and even TV markets, much as you'll see kids on the other side of the country wear UNC gear despite no connection to the school. Miami was the badass program for the 80s and 90s and people became fans back then still are. Notre Dame is the same way, small private school with national following though for very different reasons. The fact UM holds down NY so well is a testament to it's nationally following, not to the number of alumni in the city. Also, being a private school fans are more likely to be spread around the country than localized in a state like a public institution.

I am from Miami and probably biased, but FSU runs behind UF locally, because it is smaller (30k<50k) and UF is the state flagship. I do not know FSU fans outside of alumni/Tallahasee because UF cleans up the state and UM holds down the population centers in South Florida pretty well.

As a native Floridian, I can say that FSU has a strong fan base in the Central and Northwest part of the state (MUCH moreso than Miami). But you are absolutely that FSU is behind UF in terms of fanship in nearly every part of the state (the Tallahassee area being the exception).

For the record, FSU has some national cache, too. They were very nationally relevant from 1988-2000 as well, and a lot of people bought into them as the "anti-Miami" (until the shoe/clothing scandals towards the end of the 1990s).

And I said, that I wouldn't be surprised either way on Miami vs FSU in terms of number of fans.


I could see NC State fans just so demoralized that they don't really follow their program while Duke fans tend to be more direhard. NC, as we all know, is a basketball sports.

I don't see that as being the case. State fans are pretty rabid about their football (since it's the one place they can still compete with UNC at the moment). I think it's a data/assumptions issue here - not an actual case where Duke fans actually outnumber NC State in football.

[CDu]

I'll grant Google's metrics are probably a reasonable starting point.

But, not only does his analysis depend on fans self-reporting support (an almost useless survey methodology), it also depends on schools self-reporting revenues by sport.

And we know schools routinely shift funds around their athletic budgets for their own ends.

So, as much as I respect Nate Silver (and had a good laugh with a MD neighbor), GIGO.

-jk

I'd even say that, while the Google approach is a reasonable starting point, it's a limited measure of fanship. I certainly hope "college football" was just a loose example of his search terms (I'm sure it was), but I don't think it's a completely reliable measure of fan market.

And your points about the survey (relying on self-report) and revenues are dead on.

[toooskies]

I'm shocked that he didn't use readily-available techniques of measuring fans (and income-generating fans) like stadium attendance, TV ratings, and football jersey sales.