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gumbomoop
08-28-2011, 11:44 AM
Seems better to discuss Heels on a new thread, rather than hijacking several others. Here I simply import 5 recent posts from Duke-UAE thread, which have nothing to do with Duke or UAE. [Edit: Except for the obvious corollary to Jderf's Law: everything about the Heels has everything to do with the Devils.]


.... face squarely the fact that UNC is loaded. For no matter which 2 of their primary 3 inside/bigs [McAdoo being the 3d] join HB on the court, the Heels will have 3 offensive threats from "players with size." HB is actually a perimeter-wing who may legitimately be called a "3-SF," but a tall, powerful 3-SF. He could easily play 4-PF, and I suppose had either Henson or Zeller departed, he'd have been called on to do that at times. That he will not have to do so - absent any injuries - speaks to the impressive experience, depth, and talent of this season's Heels. Beating them will be difficult and rewarding.


[UNC has] beaucoup concerns going into 2012. Take UNC's last seven games, for example. It was amazing that the Heels survived to the finals of the ACC, given that they barely led either Miami or Clemson and had to have a miracle finish to beat the Tigers. Then UNC failed to show up against Duke in the finals. In the NCAAs, I thought UNC was unimpressive against both Long Island and UDub -- both games in Charlotte. The Heels thumped Marquette (their only good performance of the stretch), only to lose to a much younger Kentucky team in the regional finals.

UNC hasn't had the uber-competitive player that inspires his teammates. As a result, the team seemed almost lackadaisical at times -- like against Duke in the ACCs.


It wasn't just the last seven games. In the eight games before that, UNC had a two-point win against Florida State, a two point win at home against BC, a two point win over Clemson, and a loss to Duke. Thus in their last 15 games, the Heels had three losses and six games that went down to the last seconds (with five of the six against unranked opponents). Hardly dominant.


i'd love to jump on the tarholes as well, but many MANY great bb games are won by just a couple of points by great teams.....i don't think that points to how weak or strong a team is....

they got it done on all those close games.....


It's true that a lot of great games are won by great teams by only a couple points, but if a team is consistently playing even with supposedly inferior competition that says something beyond "they got it done." ..... [I]f UNC continues to play those down-to-the-wire games in 2011-12, I predict their luck will even out.


I doubt we'll find a careful consideration of the possibility that the Heels will not be dominant out there in ESPN-land. Certainly not from Vitale, who will be in fine form re the Heels, just as, to be fair, he'd be swooning about the Devils, in the same circumstances. I'll be interested in Bilas's take, as he made it a point, over and over, to say the Kyrie-era Devils [a small, if painful joke] were not a "great" team.

Anyhow, my purpose in starting this thread is to get the discussion out of Duke-UAE hijack-land, and, more important, to have a full-on discussion of the Heels' considerable strengths and possible flaws. Hope, not incidentally, to draw in our good Heel experts [ChicagoHeel, Wheat, shoutingncu, kong123, others?].

Wheat/"/"/"
08-28-2011, 06:18 PM
Always willing to discuss the Heels with my Duke friends.

The real strength I see in the Heels this year is the balance this team has in the quality of their skill level.
What I mean is each position has a high skill set, and seems to have a skill set that fits with the other players skill sets.

There is good chemistry with the team now, both in play and personalities.

And then the bench players skill sets, (McAdoo, Hairston, Bullock, Watts), should also fit nicely with what is needed from the bench. (Have not seen McAdoo and Hairston, just going by size, reputation).

Had LMac not been hurt, I would be feeling much more positive. I think his game was solid and ready to breakout to very good. He is going to be missed more than expected as Strickland's back up, I'm afraid. Bullock and Hairston will have to step up and both are unproven.

I think we know what we will get from Zeller. He's gonna hurt teams running the floor as a big and he's gonna score predictably in the paint, and even from mid-range. His defense/rebounding will be solid. There's no weakness in his game, just areas stronger than others. All ACC.

Henson is a wild card. He's a game changing player and how he plays on a given night can take the Heels to a whole 'nother level. As the ACC's DPOY, he's a match-up nightmare on both ends of the floor. He plays above the rim, and can own the backboard with his rebounding and shot blocking. He's a mid-range jump shot away from a top 5 NBA draft pick. He's already top 15. All-ACC.

Barnes is just so well rounded for a SF with that much size. He can shoot it, finish around the rim, dish it, rebound it, and has a feel for the game. He's a smooth, confident player. He's a good/smart defender that won't take many risks, sort of like Zeller. That's a player that makes opponents prove they can do the work to score, they don't give much away that easily.
He can improve the dribble, but UNC doesn't count on players to create off the dribble that much so it's a weakness that's hard to expose. All- ACC.

Strickland brings an explosive attitude, intensity, and quickness to the floor. He's aggressive (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL1y8HoVtY0)and will flat out dunk it on you don't hustle back or forget about even the smallest lane to the hoop. He stretches defenses like Ty Lawson did in transition and can finish at the rack. His 1/2 court offense is not so great, but he learned to settle down and get in the flow better last season and move the ball to better options. He'll never be a shooter. He's the teams best individual small defender and will usually match up with the oppositions quickest guard.

Marshall is a player. A leader with excellent ball handling, court awareness, and feel for the game. I never bought into the old "Roy has to have a super quick PG" to win stuff. Like any other coach, he just needs players. For his size, Marshall is deceptively quick with the ball and can get to the rim. He just needs to finish better than he did as a freshman. He rimmed way too many out last season on his drives that he couldn't get to fall. Defensively he is pretty solid, but can struggle against smaller, quicker guards. It's not a huge liability because of the help D that UNC plays. 2nd team All-ACC.

UNC will push the ball, and teams that lack depth will get crushed by the pace of the offense. The better teams with quality depth and focus that can limit UNC's transition will have to have some serious 1/2 court defense to stop Zeller/Henson inside... and Barnes from both.
If any of McAdoo, Hairston or Bullock find some steady outside shooting to open the floor up, it's going to be very, very difficult to do.

UNC is going to be a much better defensive team than given credit for, just like the '09 team, because the offensive pace will be so strong, people like to think they don't play D. Teams will have to be really hot from deep to stretch them. This team is be big and long, starting, 7'0, 6'10, 6'8. 6'3, 6'3 and has bought into playing the help D.
If the freshmen can grasp the defense quickly the sky is the limit for this team.

IMO, this team is capable of being one of the best UNC teams of the last 20 years.

jipops
08-28-2011, 08:34 PM
Always willing to discuss the Heels with my Duke friends.

The real strength I see in the Heels this year is the balance this team has in the quality of their skill level.
What I mean is each position has a high skill set, and seems to have a skill set that fits with the other players skill sets.

There is good chemistry with the team now, both in play and personalities.

And then the bench players skill sets, (McAdoo, Hairston, Bullock, Watts), should also fit nicely with what is needed from the bench. (Have not seen McAdoo and Hairston, just going by size, reputation).

Had LMac not been hurt, I would be feeling much more positive. I think his game was solid and ready to breakout to very good. He is going to be missed more than expected as Strickland's back up, I'm afraid. Bullock and Hairston will have to step up and both are unproven.

I think we know what we will get from Zeller. He's gonna hurt teams running the floor as a big and he's gonna score predictably in the paint, and even from mid-range. His defense/rebounding will be solid. There's no weakness in his game, just areas stronger than others. All ACC.

Henson is a wild card. He's a game changing player and how he plays on a given night can take the Heels to a whole 'nother level. As the ACC's DPOY, he's a match-up nightmare on both ends of the floor. He plays above the rim, and can own the backboard with his rebounding and shot blocking. He's a mid-range jump shot away from a top 5 NBA draft pick. He's already top 15. All-ACC.

Barnes is just so well rounded for a SF with that much size. He can shoot it, finish around the rim, dish it, rebound it, and has a feel for the game. He's a smooth, confident player. He's a good/smart defender that won't take many risks, sort of like Zeller. That's a player that makes opponents prove they can do the work to score, they don't give much away that easily.
He can improve the dribble, but UNC doesn't count on players to create off the dribble that much so it's a weakness that's hard to expose. All- ACC.

Strickland brings an explosive attitude, intensity, and quickness to the floor. He's aggressive (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL1y8HoVtY0)and will flat out dunk it on you don't hustle back or forget about even the smallest lane to the hoop. He stretches defenses like Ty Lawson did in transition and can finish at the rack. His 1/2 court offense is not so great, but he learned to settle down and get in the flow better last season and move the ball to better options. He'll never be a shooter. He's the teams best individual small defender and will usually match up with the oppositions quickest guard.

Marshall is a player. A leader with excellent ball handling, court awareness, and feel for the game. I never bought into the old "Roy has to have a super quick PG" to win stuff. Like any other coach, he just needs players. For his size, Marshall is deceptively quick with the ball and can get to the rim. He just needs to finish better than he did as a freshman. He rimmed way too many out last season on his drives that he couldn't get to fall. Defensively he is pretty solid, but can struggle against smaller, quicker guards. It's not a huge liability because of the help D that UNC plays. 2nd team All-ACC.

UNC will push the ball, and teams that lack depth will get crushed by the pace of the offense. The better teams with quality depth and focus that can limit UNC's transition will have to have some serious 1/2 court defense to stop Zeller/Henson inside... and Barnes from both.
If any of McAdoo, Hairston or Bullock find some steady outside shooting to open the floor up, it's going to be very, very difficult to do.

UNC is going to be a much better defensive team than given credit for, just like the '09 team, because the offensive pace will be so strong, people like to think they don't play D. Teams will have to be really hot from deep to stretch them. This team is be big and long, starting, 7'0, 6'10, 6'8. 6'3, 6'3 and has bought into playing the help D.
If the freshmen can grasp the defense quickly the sky is the limit for this team.

IMO, this team is capable of being one of the best UNC teams of the last 20 years.

Is it possible that this is only fun for you (or especially so) when UNC is so clearly superior in both talent and experience?:)

I agree with most of your post and certainly agree with the last part. I think there is a stigma with Roy's teams and a lack of D (mostly deserved), but that wasn't the case with last year's squad as they were one of the best defensive teams in the country. I expect them to be the best in the country on both ends this season. I also think this team is capable of being one of UNC's best in quite some time, and that is really saying something considering the ridiculous amount of talent they have so consistently had. It's not like Roy is going to have to make any in-game adjustments or change a style of play mid-stream. There is plenty of talent on this team to dictate how a game will be played against any opponent. The front court is ridiculous with at least 4 NBA talents included in that rotation. Losing Leslie is unfortunate but I don't think it hurts them at all. They still have 3 guys available to fill his position - all 3 highly coveted recruits. And with Kendall they have one of the top facilitators in the country to go with all the scorers. Even Strickland is capable of filling in as a backup pg role. Honestly, this team is so good I think their biggest weakness is the guy on the bench with vertigo wearing the pale blue tie. But he doesn't suit up. And compared to many teams that isn't much of a weakness, just not real special.

I am very much excited to see my Duke team grow and develop. There are going to be plenty of ups and downs and I think more down moments than many right now want to believe. But by any standard I still fully expect an excellent season for Duke. K has a lot to work with but there are plenty of holes to compensate for. I think this is the biggest strength of K. He adapts to his team. As excited as I am about seeing my own team grow I also feel an unhealthy dose of dread. It's the same way I felt about '04-'05 and '08-'09. Those teams featured a superior amount of talent and experience much the same way this season's heels will. Roy has certainly proven he knows what to do when in this situation, ofcourse, wouldn't many coaches? If his team is in a situation where it must compensate then everything is up in the air, which isn't different from most coaches either. As with most of Roy's teams, he is certainly not in a situation where he must adapt. I'm not exactly looking forward to him being portrayed as some basketball genius with his 3rd title at UNC.

roywhite
08-28-2011, 08:49 PM
Is it possible that the Heels will be somewhat less than the sum of their parts?

It's hard to look at their results over the last 15 games and not think that, despite sometimes fine individual performances by Marshall, Barnes, Zeller, and Henson, there was something missing. It seemed to be mostly on the perimeter, and reflected in lack of good outside shooting and subpar defense against good backcourt players.

I'll go with perimeter shooting and defense as still being a question mark for 2011-12 Heels. Now, if Bullock or Hairston turn out to resemble Wayne Ellington, and Strickland becomes the defensive stopper that he could be, they may indeed be a dominant team.

My early take is that UNC will open as #1, but will still be vulnerable to an occasional loss to a team with good outside shooters....like, oh, say...Duke.

Wheat/"/"/"
08-28-2011, 09:13 PM
Is it possible that this is only fun for you (or especially so) when UNC is so clearly superior in both talent and experience?:)


Nah, it's always fun for me to talk hoops when I can. :)

To be clear, I do like this teams makeup, but I wouldn't want to say UNC is "clearly superior" to several other teams, including Duke, OSU, KY, Syracuse and now UConn. They can't coast by any means, they still have to do the work on the floor.

I will say Roy Williams is an excellent coach. A hall of famer and multiple time champion. His teams will play his way, They will defend and look to pressure teams by running and scoring quickly in transition first option, every time. He'll feed the post second option, shoot the jumper third option. Rinse, repeat. He will not change to suit the other teams style, he will lose first, but lose his way. He believes he will wear other teams down and win in the end.

He is a little stubborn that way, but he's the coach and he's been very successful that way.

Newton_14
08-28-2011, 09:17 PM
IMO, this team is capable of being one of the best UNC teams of the last 20 years.

Dang Wheat, you didn't just sip the Koolaid, you gulped it all down without taking a breath and then sniffed the fumes from the empty bottle!:)

I hate to play spoil sport and interrupt the love-fest you and Jipops have going on with these Heels, but let me bring some sanity to the conversation. How quickly you forget how good your Senior and Junior laden National Title team was just 3 seasons ago. That team would mop the floor with this team. Kendall trying to guard Lawson? Hansflop would break Henson in half the first time Slim got in his path. But, enough of praising Heels.

This team will be good, no doubt, but like most college teams these days they have flaws and limitations. They have one reliable PG. Can he play 35 mpg all year without getting hurt? Scheyer and Nolan did, so it is possible, but still a risk to consider. Kendall is also a liability on defense, which forces Strickland to have to cover his slack. You lost one of your top experienced shooters and a great defender when L-Mac went down. L-Mac is the better player by far over Bullock and Hairston and he was a Jr, that you have to replace with a Soph coming off a knee injury, and a freshman with zero experience.

Barnes is Barnes, though you do gloss over his inability to drive effectively due to a poor handle and lack of a quick first step. He will still make a ton of shots, but can he find other ways to score when his jumpshot is not going down?

Zeller is great running the floor and scoring on the block. No argument there. However, he is still soft on defense, and both he and Henson have shown that if you punch them in the mouth like Duke did in the ACC Title game last year, they will back down. Will Zeller improve as a defender and show better toughness?

I agree with much of your thoughts on Henson, but toughness like I mentioned above is an open question. He is still a liability at the line, and has a tendency to make the bone-headed play (did it twice in the last 10 seconds of the 2nd Round game with UW last year). Freakish length still allows him to be a disruption on defense though. If he can make the mid-range jumper he will be a problem on offense.

McAdoo has good offensive skills but is a freshman big, and history has shown that freshman bigs not in the Top 5 of their Class need more time to develop.

Overall, they are a Top 5 team, but certainly will be beatable. In their Top 10 players they have 2 Sr's (one of which is Justin Watts), 2 Jr's, 3 Soph's, 2 Fr, and only 1 PG. Outside shooting will still be a concern, as Strickland is a brick mason, Kendall is average at best from outside, and the best shooter other than Barnes will be in street clothes.

Duke will certainly challenge them for the ACC Hardware, and Kentucky and Ohio St may actually be better teams nationally. This is all of course conjecture, so let the games begin so we can see how it all unfolds.

I for one will take my chances with our Blue Devils.

Wheat/"/"/"
08-28-2011, 09:19 PM
Is it possible that the Heels will be somewhat less than the sum of their parts?

It's hard to look at their results over the last 15 games and not think that, despite sometimes fine individual performances by Marshall, Barnes, Zeller, and Henson, there was something missing. It seemed to be mostly on the perimeter, and reflected in lack of good outside shooting and subpar defense against good backcourt players.

I'll go with perimeter shooting and defense as still being a question mark for 2011-12 Heels. Now, if Bullock or Hairston turn out to resemble Wayne Ellington, and Strickland becomes the defensive stopper that he could be, they may indeed be a dominant team.

My early take is that UNC will open as #1, but will still be vulnerable to an occasional loss to a team with good outside shooters....like, oh, say...Duke.


I thought UNC's biggest issue last season, after Drew's departure, was learning how to win. They didn't close games out that they should have won. They played like the young team they were.

They should play with much more experience this season.

And they are vulnerable to a hot shooting team like Duke can be, everybody else is too.

Wheat/"/"/"
08-28-2011, 09:36 PM
I for one will take my chances with our Blue Devils.

I wouldn't expect any less. :)

Scorp4me
08-28-2011, 10:00 PM
His teams will play his way,

I know it's an old school approach and in some ways that I still has alot of appeal, but I also think it's his biggest flaw. Roy will drive a square peg with in a round hole with a sledge hammer if he has too. K seems like he would just find a square hole to use. Again, I admit there is something to be said for both and I'm not saying that K doesn't have his preferences too...I guess I just prefer the more flexible style myself.

As for having the best team in 20 years...well, that being the case I would think anything less than a NC would be a disappointment. And losing to Duke? Oh my goodness, don't let that happen. Haven't you heard, Duke is in a down year :)

devildeac
08-28-2011, 10:03 PM
I know it's an old school approach and in some ways that I still has alot of appeal, but I also think it's his biggest flaw. Roy will drive a square peg with in a round hole with a sledge hammer if he has too. K seems like he would just find a square hole to use. Again, I admit there is something to be said for both and I'm not saying that K doesn't have his preferences too...I guess I just prefer the more flexible style myself.

As for having the best team in 20 years...well, that being the case I would think anything less than a NC would be a disappointment. And losing to Duke? Oh my goodness, don't let that happen. Haven't you heard, Duke is in a down year :)

Didn't you mean undefeated and a NC? ;)

Wheat/"/"/"
08-28-2011, 10:20 PM
Please note I have not made any bold predictions or added any trash talk...yet :)

I only said I think this team is "capable" of being "one" of the best in the last 20 years.

meloveduke
08-29-2011, 12:24 AM
I think their are a few good teams this year including UNC, Duke, Ohiost, and a few others. To say any of those teams are without any problems is just crazy.

I do think UNC is going to be a problem for some teams. I do have a few questions about the heels though. 1. Can they defend the 3? 2. Will the front line play to its size(stronger) on both sides of the ball? 3. Can they make enough 3's to make teams defend the 3? 4. Who is going to spell Marshal at the point, and will the team still beable to score and defend?

I think those questions will dectate how the heels season plays out. We will just have to wait and see...

I think Duke has some questions too, and am looking foward to the start of the season. I hope both teams do well for the sake of the acc, but I do hope Duke does better this year...lol.

oldnavy
08-29-2011, 05:55 AM
I think UNC will be a major, major force this year. Invincible? Nope. Let's keep in mind that this is essentially the same team that lost a 16 point lead to Duke in Cameron and also got blown out in the ACCT. The only really solid game they played in the NCAAT was against Marquette.

Now they are a year older and logic would lead you to believe that they will correct the faults, but history isn't necessarily on their side. Hansbrough's junior season's team was similar to this years team, and they were very good, but had some problems.

Also, like Newton 14 pointed out, they are a little thin in the backcourt, specifically PG. Marshall is really good, but is he an iron man? Don't know yet.

That being said, they will be a tough team to beat.

Wander
08-29-2011, 07:50 AM
The only really solid game they played in the NCAAT was against Marquette.


Then what hope does Duke have? Our only really solid NCAAT game was against Hampton, and we'll likely not be as good this year as last year.

This whole "well, UNC wasn't actually that good at the end of last year" line of thinking is silly. They might have the best passer in the country, the best defender in the country, and a 20-10 type of center. And those three guys don't even include their two projected top-10 NBA draft picks! We can nitpick about possible flaws and pray that Marshall and Bullock haven't developed into reliable perimeter scorers in between their freshman and sophomore years, but that's missing the larger point. Of course they won't go undefeated and aren't invincible, but they're deserving of all the hype they're getting right now.

(But we'll still crush them in a 3 game sweep as Curry continues to develop into our anti-UNC weapon, of course :) )

NSDukeFan
08-29-2011, 09:54 AM
Dang Wheat, you didn't just sip the Koolaid, you gulped it all down without taking a breath and then sniffed the fumes from the empty bottle!:)

I hate to play spoil sport and interrupt the love-fest you and Jipops have going on with these Heels, but let me bring some sanity to the conversation. How quickly you forget how good your Senior and Junior laden National Title team was just 3 seasons ago. That team would mop the floor with this team. Kendall trying to guard Lawson? Hansflop would break Henson in half the first time Slim got in his path. But, enough of praising Heels.

This team will be good, no doubt, but like most college teams these days they have flaws and limitations. They have one reliable PG. Can he play 35 mpg all year without getting hurt? Scheyer and Nolan did, so it is possible, but still a risk to consider. Kendall is also a liability on defense, which forces Strickland to have to cover his slack. You lost one of your top experienced shooters and a great defender when L-Mac went down. L-Mac is the better player by far over Bullock and Hairston and he was a Jr, that you have to replace with a Soph coming off a knee injury, and a freshman with zero experience.

Barnes is Barnes, though you do gloss over his inability to drive effectively due to a poor handle and lack of a quick first step. He will still make a ton of shots, but can he find other ways to score when his jumpshot is not going down?

Zeller is great running the floor and scoring on the block. No argument there. However, he is still soft on defense, and both he and Henson have shown that if you punch them in the mouth like Duke did in the ACC Title game last year, they will back down. Will Zeller improve as a defender and show better toughness?

I agree with much of your thoughts on Henson, but toughness like I mentioned above is an open question. He is still a liability at the line, and has a tendency to make the bone-headed play (did it twice in the last 10 seconds of the 2nd Round game with UW last year). Freakish length still allows him to be a disruption on defense though. If he can make the mid-range jumper he will be a problem on offense.

McAdoo has good offensive skills but is a freshman big, and history has shown that freshman bigs not in the Top 5 of their Class need more time to develop.

Overall, they are a Top 5 team, but certainly will be beatable. In their Top 10 players they have 2 Sr's (one of which is Justin Watts), 2 Jr's, 3 Soph's, 2 Fr, and only 1 PG. Outside shooting will still be a concern, as Strickland is a brick mason, Kendall is average at best from outside, and the best shooter other than Barnes will be in street clothes.

Duke will certainly challenge them for the ACC Hardware, and Kentucky and Ohio St may actually be better teams nationally. This is all of course conjecture, so let the games begin so we can see how it all unfolds.

I for one will take my chances with our Blue Devils.
I agree it was time to point out some negatives with UNC, but I will nit-pick with a couple of yours. Yes, they have just the one top PG, but as you pointed out, Duke won a title with a guard who hadn't played much point guard before his senior year. (Jon did turn out to be a pretty great college PG.) I don't think Marshall has to play 35 minutes a game. Having Strickland play the point for 10 or more minutes a game wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing in the world. He has probably played as much at PG in college as Seth Curry has. He isn't the passer Marshall is, but there aren't that many as good in college hoops.

I don't know about the soft label for Zeller and Henson. Last year at this time, it was Zeller was injury-prone, will it be he is soft this year? I must confess, I like Zeller's game and think he has always been underrated on this board.

McAdoo is the 6th rated incoming freshman in a loaded class, so I am not sure he needs to be a top-6 big man to make an impact this year, especially off the bench.

I am also a little bit scared about Bullock and Hairston. Bullock was hurt all last year and if he is healthy, he may have more of an impact this year. Hairston is also very highly rated. That is a heckuva trio at shooting guard, with top-15 prospects at the positions from each of the past three classes at their weakest starting position.

With that said, I believe UNC deserves to have hype coming into the year, though I don't think they are as talented as Kentucky, though they are more experienced. I also think UConn deserves to be mentioned among the top contenders as well as OSU. That said, it is a long season and Duke is awfully talented as well, so may have a chance to be in the discussion before all is said and done.


I know it's an old school approach and in some ways that I still has alot of appeal, but I also think it's his biggest flaw. Roy will drive a square peg with in a round hole with a sledge hammer if he has too. K seems like he would just find a square hole to use. Again, I admit there is something to be said for both and I'm not saying that K doesn't have his preferences too...I guess I just prefer the more flexible style myself.

As for having the best team in 20 years...well, that being the case I would think anything less than a NC would be a disappointment. And losing to Duke? Oh my goodness, don't let that happen. Haven't you heard, Duke is in a down year :)
The good thing for Roy this year, and not so good for Duke fans, is that he has a bunch of round pegs and a nice variety of pegs this year. He may run over a few of them with a bus and deform them, but right now they look to fit well. At this time, this doesn't look like the sort of year that Roy would have to adapt to his personnel. He has all the parts.

Fortunately, Duke has some great parts as well, and there are a number of teams that can beat UNC this year, and especially in a one-and-done format. I liked Duke's team going into last year better than this UNC team because of the senior leadership of Kyle and Nolan, but this UNC team does have great potential. As crazy as it sounds, the biggest advantage they may have over Duke right now is at the defensive end. Hopefully this will change during the year.

CDu
08-29-2011, 10:14 AM
I don't know about the soft label for Zeller and Henson. Last year at this time, it was Zeller was injury-prone, will it be he is soft this year? I must confess, I like Zeller's game and think he has always been underrated on this board.

More accurately: last year he was soft AND injury-prone. Now, he's just soft. Maybe he can shed that label this year, but he's always been a softer player. He's a very good player (15.7 ppg is nothing to sneeze at), but he should be considered on the softer side. I think Henson also deserves the soft label. He struts and talks trash like he's tough, but he still can get pushed around. His game is all about being so lanky that he can create havoc without having to mix it up. Again, both are very good players and will definitely be at least 2nd team all-acc (perhaps both 1st team) if they stay healthy. But neither is really a tough player.

I agree with you on UNC's backcourt though. Strickland is a fantastic option for a backup PG for 8-12 mpg. And Hairston and Bullock provide two potentially very good options to fill the 3pt void from the wing this year. A rotation of Strickland/Hairston/Bullock/Barnes at the wing is potentially REALLY impressive, if either/both of Hairston and Barnes live up to their offensive skillsets.

roywhite
08-29-2011, 10:38 AM
More accurately: last year he was soft AND injury-prone. Now, he's just soft. Maybe he can shed that label this year, but he's always been a softer player. He's a very good player (15.7 ppg is nothing to sneeze at), but he should be considered on the softer side. I think Henson also deserves the soft label. He struts and talks trash like he's tough, but he still can get pushed around. His game is all about being so lanky that he can create havoc without having to mix it up. Again, both are very good players and will definitely be at least 2nd team all-acc (perhaps both 1st team) if they stay healthy. But neither is really a tough player.

I agree with you on UNC's backcourt though. Strickland is a fantastic option for a backup PG for 8-12 mpg. And Hairston and Bullock provide two potentially very good options to fill the 3pt void from the wing this year. A rotation of Strickland/Hairston/Bullock/Barnes at the wing is potentially REALLY impressive, if either/both of Hairston and Barnes live up to their offensive skillsets.

I think we're into semantics here. "Soft" is not a word I would apply to Henson, despite his lack of bulk.

What I saw of Henson last year indicated that he was increasingly aggressive in his game. Battled for rebounds, went after opponents' shots, and would try to swipe the ball out of an opponent's hands (see Mason Plumlee...though Henson is hardly unique in trying to swipe rebounds out of Mason's hands). He's a potential ACC POY and perhaps in the discussion for national POY.

Henson is a unique player and extremely dangerous in many ways. My hope so far as our bigs are concerned it that they have seen enough of him to formulate counter-measures. That includes emphasis on grasping rebounds firmly and even cradling the ball before passing it out if Henson is nearby.

CDu
08-29-2011, 10:51 AM
I think we're into semantics here. "Soft" is not a word I would apply to Henson, despite his lack of bulk.

Semantics indeed. When I use the word soft to describe Henson, I mean he doesn't want to mix it up inside. He challenges shots and reaches for rebounds, but he doesn't hold his position or fight for the ball. If he can't get to it with his length, he's not getting it.

The soft label doesn't mean he's not a good player. You can be soft and still be a great player. Henson is a fantastic presence in terms of altering shots and using his length to get putbacks and steals and rebounds. He's one of the rare players who can overcome his softness to still get a ton of rebounds.

Wheat/"/"/"
08-29-2011, 11:23 AM
Semantics indeed. When I use the word soft to describe Henson, I mean he doesn't want to mix it up inside. He challenges shots and reaches for rebounds, but he doesn't hold his position or fight for the ball. If he can't get to it with his length, he's not getting it.....


So, is it fair to assume you also think Ryan Kelly is soft?

From my perspective, I don't see any of those players as soft. When I think of "soft", that's a player that's not playing hard.

Zeller always plays tough, but within himself, and does mix it up inside. He just seems to have a high center of gravity and lacks intuition and the lateral quickness to react to rebounds. He can be moved because he is so often off balance. But that's not "soft", at least to me. He's doing the work down low and has always been mentally tough as well.

Henson is not "soft", either. He's just been "weak" :)

CDu
08-29-2011, 11:33 AM
So, is it fair to assume you also think Ryan Kelly is soft?

From my perspective, I don't see any of those players as soft. When I think of "soft", that's a player that's not playing hard.

Zeller always plays tough, but within himself, and does mix it up inside. He just seems to have a high center of gravity and lacks intuition and the lateral quickness to react to rebounds. He can be moved because he is so often off balance. But that's not "soft", at least to me. He's doing the work down low and has always been mentally tough as well.

Henson is not "soft", either. He's just been "weak" :)

I'd put Kelly on the softer side, too. I don't think of soft as a term for lack of effort. Just a term for a guy who doesn't really want a part of physical play and can be pushed around. And I think that neither Zeller nor Henson want any part of physical play, and both can be pushed around. But like I said, there may be some semantics involved here. Both Henson and Zeller are fantastic players and very possibly first-team All-ACC.

COYS
08-29-2011, 11:43 AM
Hey, this is a Duke board so I feel obligated to post this, despite the fact that I do believe that UNC will be good next year.

The fact of the matter is, UNC's players will have to improve dramatically on offense to get UNC back to the heights of offensive efficiency the fans of the wrong shade of blue enjoyed during their best years under Williams. The '09 Heels started four players (Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson, and Green) who ranked among the top 55 players in offensive rating in the entire nation (with Green checking in at 52). Compare that to last year when only Zeller rated in the top 400 (checking in at 72). Smith, Singler, and Irving are all gone from last years Duke team, but Seth, Andre and Ryan posted higher efficiency numbers than all the non-Zeller Heels. Wheat and others have pointed out that Zeller was UNC's best offensive player last year and I think that is definitely true. Marshall didn't shoot often nor particularly well from anywhere on the court, including the free throw line, meaning that his efficiency is almost entirely tied into his assist rate (which was an excellent 40%) versus turnover rate (a poor 29%). I expect his turnover rate to drop as he makes the natural improvement from Frosh to Soph. But his shooting percentages will need to improve dramatically to significantly increase his efficiency. Barnes' game is almost entirely dependent on his jump shot. While a jump in three point shooting percentage could give him a big boost in efficiency, he will most likely need to make more trips to the line. Henson still can't shoot outside of a few feet from the basket. He's a terror on defense and a talented player in his way, don't get me wrong. But he is definitely not a go to player on offense. Finally, Strickland is a very limited player who relies on drives to the hoop for scores (he doesn't pass well), but doesn't have the handle to break down defenses in half court settings. His speed is enough to get him some hoops and he's a dangerous player in transition, but he is very limited in the half court. Poor free throw shooting doesn't help, either.

Obviously, I expect all of UNC's players to improve in each of these areas. But they will have to improve dramatically to really become a juggernaut. Duke blew out UNC when Nolan took Marshall out of the game, which prevented passes to Zeller on the block and forced the rest of the team to create their own shots, something none of them are particularly good at. UNC will need someone other than Zeller to become a viable threat in the half court, whether by increasing their three point percentages (Strickland, Marshall, possibly Barnes) getting to the line consistently (Barnes), or improving their post moves (Henson). I think that UNC will be a good offensive team, but I don't expect such overwhelming improvement from every player that they reach the heights of efficiency achieved by the '05-'09 Williams teams. The team will still be very reliant on jump shoots from inside the arc (the shot with the lowest value in college ball) when their transition game isn't working. UNC will be very good and near the top of the polls all year. But I don't think they will run away from the competition (although a top heavy ACC may help them make it through the season with only 2-4 losses, two being to Duke, of course!). I also wouldn't be surprised to see their defensive rating end up significantly higher than their offensive rating, as it did last year. With Marshall running the break, they are always a threat to score. But the team doesn't have the same type of balanced firepower that the '08 and '09 squads did, barring dramatic improvement from every starter or (probably less likely) all-ACC type performances from Hairston or Bullock.

ChicagoHeel
08-29-2011, 01:30 PM
My two cents...

I expect UNC to dominate the ACC next year and, as much as I hate to admit it, I will be disappointed in anything less than a Final Four. I don't like going into the season thinking "FF or bust" and I will try in vain to convince myself to just enjoy each game, but it's the reality when you have this much returning talent.

Several have pointed out that our offense next year will not reach the heights of previous UNC teams, but I don't think it needs to given that this team has a much stronger commitment to defense. Last year we had the 6th ranked adjusted defense and there is nothing that would lead me to believe we will deteriorate in that department. That doesn't mean we will finish sixth again, but it does mean we will be very strong on that end of the floor. Our big weakness is a vulnerability to the three, which clearly will be a concern against Duke. Like always, our philosophy will be, "we'll trade our easy two's for your contested three's". I just hope we are better at contesting them this year; a healthy Reggie Bullock will help in that area.

As for our offense, it was prone to periods of stagnation last year during which we seemed to end up with Barnes taking a tough jumper on too many possessions. I expect there to be significant improvement this year for a couple of obvious reasons. One, players just get better each year. Yes, Barnes and Marshall had some obvious flaws in their game, but they were freshmen going through the typical first-year struggles. If each key UNC underclassmen from last year- Henson, Strickland, Barnes, Marshall, and Bullock- improves within the normal range our offense should be much more consistent in the half court. Of course, Duke can expect improvement from returning players too, but the biggest difference is that all of our players are playing a similar role to last year while your players (e.g. Curry) have the pressure of improving while also playing a more prominent role on the team.

Second, my sense is that compared to past UNC teams this one collectively has a greater hunger and humility about it. Perhaps more than UNC teams in the past, players have been working on their individual weaknesses over the summer. I don't expect many of you to agree with my point that this team is humble, but it is my sense that this team exudes a shared desire to improve that comes from an honest awareness of its flaws. Barnes, for instance, openly acknowledges what everyone on this board knows- he didn't get to the line enough last year because he was weak taking defenders off the dribble. It was his main focus at the CP3 camp. Every time I read a quote from Marshall, it seems to be about improving his outside shot. And I seem to recall an article where the UNC players were asked who has shown the biggest improvement over the summer and the consensus answer was "Henson and his jump shot". The team has spent a lot of time playing together against former UNC stars. This may not sound like anything exceptional, and there is no guarantee that when the real season starts the work over the summer will pay off in terms of improved skills or chemistry. But over the last couple of years one of the issues with LDII was that he was either out of CH or apparently unwilling to commit himself to work with the team over the summer. I think the lack of togetherness impeded the off-season progress of the team as a whole. That won't be an issue this year.

Our offense will have vulnerabilities, e.g. outside shooting, there are lots of worthy opponents this year, and like any team we are susceptible to the bad luck of injuries, so it would be foolish to expect a National Championship or assume we will be a juggernaut. But I think we will be a major force and there is a good probability that we will accomplish the three most important goals of any season- beat Duke in every meeting, win the ACC regular season, and make the Final Four.

ChicagoHeel
08-29-2011, 01:41 PM
Just to jump in on the "Is Zeller soft? debate, my definition of a soft player is one who, when confronted by a physical opponent, fails to perform the tasks at which he typically excels (e.g. a good shooter that shoots a low percentage) or makes an above-normal number of mistakes (e.g. a guard who makes a lot of TOs). Earlier in his career Zeller was on the soft side. He seemed to struggle to score or establish good position against physical opponents. By the end of last year, I think the label no longer fit. He could get his points and rebounds regardless of the style of the opponent.

Wheat/"/"/"
08-29-2011, 02:01 PM
Hey, this is a Duke board so I feel obligated to post this, despite the fact that I do believe that UNC will be good next year.

The fact of the matter is, UNC's players will have to improve dramatically on offense to get UNC back to the heights of offensive efficiency the fans of the wrong shade of blue enjoyed during their best years under Williams. The '09 Heels started four players (Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson, and Green) who ranked among the top 55 players in offensive rating in the entire nation (with Green checking in at 52). Compare that to last year when only Zeller rated in the top 400 (checking in at 72). Smith, Singler, and Irving are all gone from last years Duke team, but Seth, Andre and Ryan posted higher efficiency numbers than all the non-Zeller Heels. Wheat and others have pointed out that Zeller was UNC's best offensive player last year and I think that is definitely true. Marshall didn't shoot often nor particularly well from anywhere on the court, including the free throw line, meaning that his efficiency is almost entirely tied into his assist rate (which was an excellent 40%) versus turnover rate (a poor 29%). I expect his turnover rate to drop as he makes the natural improvement from Frosh to Soph. But his shooting percentages will need to improve dramatically to significantly increase his efficiency. Barnes' game is almost entirely dependent on his jump shot. While a jump in three point shooting percentage could give him a big boost in efficiency, he will most likely need to make more trips to the line. Henson still can't shoot outside of a few feet from the basket. He's a terror on defense and a talented player in his way, don't get me wrong. But he is definitely not a go to player on offense. Finally, Strickland is a very limited player who relies on drives to the hoop for scores (he doesn't pass well), but doesn't have the handle to break down defenses in half court settings. His speed is enough to get him some hoops and he's a dangerous player in transition, but he is very limited in the half court. Poor free throw shooting doesn't help, either.

Obviously, I expect all of UNC's players to improve in each of these areas. But they will have to improve dramatically to really become a juggernaut. Duke blew out UNC when Nolan took Marshall out of the game, which prevented passes to Zeller on the block and forced the rest of the team to create their own shots, something none of them are particularly good at. UNC will need someone other than Zeller to become a viable threat in the half court, whether by increasing their three point percentages (Strickland, Marshall, possibly Barnes) getting to the line consistently (Barnes), or improving their post moves (Henson). I think that UNC will be a good offensive team, but I don't expect such overwhelming improvement from every player that they reach the heights of efficiency achieved by the '05-'09 Williams teams. The team will still be very reliant on jump shoots from inside the arc (the shot with the lowest value in college ball) when their transition game isn't working. UNC will be very good and near the top of the polls all year. But I don't think they will run away from the competition (although a top heavy ACC may help them make it through the season with only 2-4 losses, two being to Duke, of course!). I also wouldn't be surprised to see their defensive rating end up significantly higher than their offensive rating, as it did last year. With Marshall running the break, they are always a threat to score. But the team doesn't have the same type of balanced firepower that the '08 and '09 squads did, barring dramatic improvement from every starter or (probably less likely) all-ACC type performances from Hairston or Bullock.

I'm going under the impression that last years team stats are skewed by a couple of things. First, the poor chemistry the first half of the season with Drew can be basically thrown out, IMO. The other is the team was extremely young and played that way. I'm counting on a much more mentally tough UNC team this season.

I thought they were playing very well late in the season, and had Henson not fouled out by making, youthful, boneheaded fouls against KY, they had a shot to go on and win the title. It still took KY shooting 54% from three for them to win that game. Hard to beat a good team shooting that well, got to hand it to them.

The biggest weakness for the Heels is their own 3 point shooting. They shot about 33% as a team. I expect it to improve with a more comfortable Marshall, Barnes and the addition of Hairston and a healthy Bullock. (This is also where LMac will be missed most).

If the shooting does improve, UNC moves beyond good and becomes a very good.

roywhite
08-29-2011, 02:03 PM
As for our offense, it was prone to periods of stagnation last year during which we seemed to end up with Barnes taking a tough jumper on too many possessions. I expect there to be significant improvement this year for a couple of obvious reasons....

Second, my sense is that compared to past UNC teams this one collectively has a greater hunger and humility about it. Perhaps more than UNC teams in the past, players have been working on their individual weaknesses over the summer. I don't expect many of you to agree with my point that this team is humble, but it is my sense that this team exudes a shared desire to improve that comes from an honest awareness of its flaws. Barnes, for instance, openly acknowledges what everyone on this board knows- he didn't get to the line enough last year because he was weak taking defenders off the dribble. It was his main focus at the CP3 camp. Every time I read a quote from Marshall, it seems to be about improving his outside shot. And I seem to recall an article where the UNC players were asked who has shown the biggest improvement over the summer and the consensus answer was "Henson and his jump shot". The team has spent a lot of time playing together against former UNC stars. This may not sound like anything exceptional, and there is no guarantee that when the real season starts the work over the summer will pay off in terms of improved skills or chemistry. But over the last couple of years one of the issues with LDII was that he was either out of CH or apparently unwilling to commit himself to work with the team over the summer. I think the lack of togetherness impeded the off-season progress of the team as a whole. That won't be an issue this year.

.

Some good comments, there ChicagoHeel, but I must admit to chuckling when I see "humility" ascribed to a team that has (Prince Harry) Barnes on it.
Okay, some of that is just personality and yes, it was a recruiting war that saw UNC win his services. But there is a basketball aspect to it, also.
It wasn't just Barnes' lack of FT opportunities that was a factor in the team's offense last year; it was also true that he was a bit of a "black hole" who looked for his shot a lot, sometimes to the point of taking difficult shots and not looking for teammates.

We'll have to see how it works out this year...whether the overall talent does add up to team dominance.

Azdukefan
08-29-2011, 03:13 PM
My two cents...

I expect UNC to dominate the ACC next year and, as much as I hate to admit it, I will be disappointed in anything less than a Final Four. I don't like going into the season thinking "FF or bust" and I will try in vain to convince myself to just enjoy each game, but it's the reality when you have this much returning talent.

Several have pointed out that our offense next year will not reach the heights of previous UNC teams, but I don't think it needs to given that this team has a much stronger commitment to defense. Last year we had the 6th ranked adjusted defense and there is nothing that would lead me to believe we will deteriorate in that department. That doesn't mean we will finish sixth again, but it does mean we will be very strong on that end of the floor. Our big weakness is a vulnerability to the three, which clearly will be a concern against Duke. Like always, our philosophy will be, "we'll trade our easy two's for your contested three's". I just hope we are better at contesting them this year; a healthy Reggie Bullock will help in that area.

As for our offense, it was prone to periods of stagnation last year during which we seemed to end up with Barnes taking a tough jumper on too many possessions. I expect there to be significant improvement this year for a couple of obvious reasons. One, players just get better each year. Yes, Barnes and Marshall had some obvious flaws in their game, but they were freshmen going through the typical first-year struggles. If each key UNC underclassmen from last year- Henson, Strickland, Barnes, Marshall, and Bullock- improves within the normal range our offense should be much more consistent in the half court. Of course, Duke can expect improvement from returning players too, but the biggest difference is that all of our players are playing a similar role to last year while your players (e.g. Curry) have the pressure of improving while also playing a more prominent role on the team.

Second, my sense is that compared to past UNC teams this one collectively has a greater hunger and humility about it. Perhaps more than UNC teams in the past, players have been working on their individual weaknesses over the summer. I don't expect many of you to agree with my point that this team is humble, but it is my sense that this team exudes a shared desire to improve that comes from an honest awareness of its flaws. Barnes, for instance, openly acknowledges what everyone on this board knows- he didn't get to the line enough last year because he was weak taking defenders off the dribble. It was his main focus at the CP3 camp. Every time I read a quote from Marshall, it seems to be about improving his outside shot. And I seem to recall an article where the UNC players were asked who has shown the biggest improvement over the summer and the consensus answer was "Henson and his jump shot". The team has spent a lot of time playing together against former UNC stars. This may not sound like anything exceptional, and there is no guarantee that when the real season starts the work over the summer will pay off in terms of improved skills or chemistry. But over the last couple of years one of the issues with LDII was that he was either out of CH or apparently unwilling to commit himself to work with the team over the summer. I think the lack of togetherness impeded the off-season progress of the team as a whole. That won't be an issue this year.

Our offense will have vulnerabilities, e.g. outside shooting, there are lots of worthy opponents this year, and like any team we are susceptible to the bad luck of injuries, so it would be foolish to expect a National Championship or assume we will be a juggernaut. But I think we will be a major force and there is a good probability that we will accomplish the three most important goals of any season- beat Duke in every meeting, win the ACC regular season, and make the Final Four.

I see what you did there........(leaving out the ACC tourney). My money (which isn't much) says you guys won't beat us at Cameron.

oldnavy
08-29-2011, 04:41 PM
Then what hope does Duke have? Our only really solid NCAAT game was against Hampton, and we'll likely not be as good this year as last year.

This whole "well, UNC wasn't actually that good at the end of last year" line of thinking is silly. They might have the best passer in the country, the best defender in the country, and a 20-10 type of center. And those three guys don't even include their two projected top-10 NBA draft picks! We can nitpick about possible flaws and pray that Marshall and Bullock haven't developed into reliable perimeter scorers in between their freshman and sophomore years, but that's missing the larger point. Of course they won't go undefeated and aren't invincible, but they're deserving of all the hype they're getting right now.

(But we'll still crush them in a 3 game sweep as Curry continues to develop into our anti-UNC weapon, of course :) )

Ok, so you skipped over the part of my post about them being a "major, major factor" and "tough to beat" to say that observing how the team finished last year is silly and irrelevant.

I disagree, my point is that they have the talent, but they have also demonstrated that they can play poorly despite being talented (just like all teams).

What hope does Duke have? Well much like any number of teams, it depends on how well we play together especially at the end of the year.

Does UNC deserve the hype? Sure they do, they should be a really, really good, potential NC team.

sagegrouse
08-29-2011, 04:56 PM
Ok, so you skipped over the part of my post about them being a "major, major factor" and "tough to beat" to say that observing how the team finished last year is silly and irrelevant.

I disagree, my point is that they have the talent, but they have also demonstrated that they can play poorly despite being talented (just like all teams).

What hope does Duke have? Well much like any number of teams, it depends on how well we play together especially at the end of the year.

Does UNC deserve the hype? Sure they do, they should be a really, really good, potential NC team.

I don't think anyone here is denigrating last year's or this year's UNC team. When I commented on last year, I was careful to say something like "[W]orry-wart UNC fans (about one-half of all fans at any school) will be concerned about how the Tar Heels played the last seven games."

Wheat and others made some good points about maturity, improvement over the summer, and new recruits. I think UNC will be a juggernaut and a NC contender. But this is a VERY GOOD team returning everyone, not a National Champion returning everyone (like LV, Duke, and Florida in past years). It has some questions, but the players and experience bring immense potential.

sagegrouse

dukelifer
08-29-2011, 05:05 PM
Nah, it's always fun for me to talk hoops when I can. :)

To be clear, I do like this teams makeup, but I wouldn't want to say UNC is "clearly superior" to several other teams, including Duke, OSU, KY, Syracuse and now UConn. They can't coast by any means, they still have to do the work on the floor.

I will say Roy Williams is an excellent coach. A hall of famer and multiple time champion. His teams will play his way, They will defend and look to pressure teams by running and scoring quickly in transition first option, every time. He'll feed the post second option, shoot the jumper third option. Rinse, repeat. He will not change to suit the other teams style, he will lose first, but lose his way. He believes he will wear other teams down and win in the end.

He is a little stubborn that way, but he's the coach and he's been very successful that way.

UNC is going to be very good and will have a very good year. The big question for the Heels is how rested Marshall will be at the end of the year. As has been noted, they are very thin at point guard and Marshall while ACC good he will have his challenges against uber-athletic defenders. All in all, UNC should be a FF team and Roy should challenge for another title. But there is a lot of basketball to play and a key injury will change a lot. It is sad that basketball has now come down to March- and for UNC it will be about peaking at the right time. They will have some massive blowouts in the ACC this year and may not know how to win close games. All this said, I expect FF but they will not win it all. I predict another loss to KY who will play for the NC.

Wheat/"/"/"
08-29-2011, 06:29 PM
UNC is going to be very good and will have a very good year. The big question for the Heels is how rested Marshall will be at the end of the year. As has been noted, they are very thin at point guard and Marshall while ACC good he will have his challenges against uber-athletic defenders. All in all, UNC should be a FF team and Roy should challenge for another title. But there is a lot of basketball to play and a key injury will change a lot. It is sad that basketball has now come down to March- and for UNC it will be about peaking at the right time. They will have some massive blowouts in the ACC this year and may not know how to win close games. All this said, I expect FF but they will not win it all. I predict another loss to KY who will play for the NC.

The word among some UNC fans I know is that Stillman White is a better player than many people think and he may fill the backup role for Marshall, along with Dex. I have not seen him play myself.

Newton_14
08-29-2011, 08:08 PM
I agree it was time to point out some negatives with UNC, but I will nit-pick with a couple of yours. Yes, they have just the one top PG, but as you pointed out, Duke won a title with a guard who hadn't played much point guard before his senior year. (Jon did turn out to be a pretty great college PG.) I don't think Marshall has to play 35 minutes a game. Having Strickland play the point for 10 or more minutes a game wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing in the world. He has probably played as much at PG in college as Seth Curry has. He isn't the passer Marshall is, but there aren't that many as good in college hoops.

I don't know about the soft label for Zeller and Henson. Last year at this time, it was Zeller was injury-prone, will it be he is soft this year? I must confess, I like Zeller's game and think he has always been underrated on this board.

McAdoo is the 6th rated incoming freshman in a loaded class, so I am not sure he needs to be a top-6 big man to make an impact this year, especially off the bench.

I am also a little bit scared about Bullock and Hairston. Bullock was hurt all last year and if he is healthy, he may have more of an impact this year. Hairston is also very highly rated. That is a heckuva trio at shooting guard, with top-15 prospects at the positions from each of the past three classes at their weakest starting position.

With that said, I believe UNC deserves to have hype coming into the year, though I don't think they are as talented as Kentucky, though they are more experienced. I also think UConn deserves to be mentioned among the top contenders as well as OSU. That said, it is a long season and Duke is awfully talented as well, so may have a chance to be in the discussion before all is said and done.


I have great respect of your opinion so I have to consider your counter points. Big goof on my part regarding McAdoo's ranking. Somehow I had him ranked in the Top 15 rather than Top 10. So throwout the comment about Bigs not in the Top 5. Ranking aside, after watching all the All Star games including the Nike Hoop Summitt, I felt the best Big on the floor by a mile was the Davis kid going to Kentucky. I think McAdoo will be good, but as I have stated previously, I don't feel he will be uber good out of the gate. I just feel it will take him time to adjust to the physicality of College hoops in the lane. Others here are super high on him as well though, so I am wary of that. Something to watch and I could be way off base in my assessment of him.

Regarding Zeller, like you, I do feel his is really good offensively and proved last year that the two injuries were in fact fluke deals vs being injury prone. The guy can score on the block very efficiently, and runs the floor as well as any big. No argument from me at all on that side of the ball. I am not overly impressed with his defense or toughness, though. In my view he does not like contact and physical play (You can be "soft" and still be a great offensive player). Very much a finesse guy to me. Same with Henson, though Henson is a terror on defense due to the freakish length, and athletic ability.

As for PG duties, when Kendall goes off the floor, it totally changes their look. It just does. Strickland just cannot do the things that Kendall does at the PG position, which puts more pressure on the offense, especially if they do not get runouts. Don't get me wrong, they won't be terrible with Strickland running the show, but they will lose what I refer to as "the magic" that Kendall brings. Heck of a PG on the offensive side of the ball. Has to stay healthy for them to have any shot at all with their goals.

moonpie23
08-29-2011, 09:51 PM
last year this time, everyone was talking about duke repeating......remember the "undefeated" talk?


unc has EVERY chance in the world to snag another title.......they also have EVERY chance in the world of snagging an "Arizona" or "kansas" in the sweet 16....

CDu
08-30-2011, 08:48 AM
The word among some UNC fans I know is that Stillman White is a better player than many people think and he may fill the backup role for Marshall, along with Dex. I have not seen him play myself.

I'll be VERY surprised if a freshman 2-star recruit gets playing time over a junior two-year starter.

OldPhiKap
08-30-2011, 09:04 AM
I'll be VERY surprised if a freshman 2-star recruit gets playing time over a junior two-year starter.

Roy tends to reward upperclassmen until forced to do otherwise, so I think you are certainly right for the beginning of the season. He has such weird substitution patterns, though, that who knows what will be on the court.

A lot depends on health and chemistry in terms of where this year's team can go. I think Marshall is the real deal, though, and I would be surprised if they did not end up a #1 seed by the end of it all. But, of course, we have the best chance to have a say in that result or not . . . .

CDu
08-30-2011, 10:10 AM
Roy tends to reward upperclassmen until forced to do otherwise, so I think you are certainly right for the beginning of the season. He has such weird substitution patterns, though, that who knows what will be on the court.

A lot depends on health and chemistry in terms of where this year's team can go. I think Marshall is the real deal, though, and I would be surprised if they did not end up a #1 seed by the end of it all. But, of course, we have the best chance to have a say in that result or not . . . .

I think the combination of the fact that Strickland is a veteran and I can't imagine that White is better than Strickland suggests White won't play much.

Generally if Williams plays a guy who has no business being on the floor it's a junior or senior (like last year when he played the 6'4" Justin Watts as the backup PF).

OldPhiKap
08-30-2011, 10:57 AM
I think the combination of the fact that Strickland is a veteran and I can't imagine that White is better than Strickland suggests White won't play much.

Generally if Williams plays a guy who has no business being on the floor it's a junior or senior (like last year when he played the 6'4" Justin Watts as the backup PF).

. . . or LD II at point . . . .

Wheat/"/"/"
08-30-2011, 12:37 PM
I'm not much on how many "stars" a kid comes in with, just how he fits.
If White can play, he'll play.

He would just need to provide good ballhandling and decision making for a few minutes a game to rest KM. If he can hit an open shot, so much the better.

Danny Anige was a Morman who could play, Jimmer came along and proved he could play...so maybe Stillman can play. We'll see......

roywhite
08-30-2011, 12:50 PM
I'm not much on how many "stars" a kid comes in with, just how he fits.
If White can play, he'll play.

He would just need to provide good ballhandling and decision making for a few minutes a game to rest KM. If he can hit an open shot, so much the better.

Danny Anige was a Morman who could play, Jimmer came along and proved he could play...so maybe Stillman can play. We'll see......

Ole Roy goes from LD II to LDS at the point?

CDu
08-31-2011, 01:29 PM
I'm not much on how many "stars" a kid comes in with, just how he fits.
If White can play, he'll play.

Well, 2-star recruits usually can't play at the ACC level as freshmen. Which was my point.


He would just need to provide good ballhandling and decision making for a few minutes a game to rest KM. If he can hit an open shot, so much the better.

The same is true of the actual backup PG (Strickland). And Strickland provides more experience and proven ACC-caliber defensive skills. There's no reason that White should have to see the court. Which is a good thing for UNC, in my opinion.


Danny Anige was a Morman who could play, Jimmer came along and proved he could play...so maybe Stillman can play. We'll see......

White's ability (or inability, as I'm arguing) to play at the ACC level has nothing to do with his being Mormon. That's a complete non-issue. My argument is based on two things: (1) White has been largely panned by recruiting experts as a non-prospect, and (2) the guy ahead of White in the backup PG pecking order has two years of solid experience in the role already.

Wheat/"/"/"
08-31-2011, 09:29 PM
Fear a Morman on the floor! Has no-one learned to beware of a Stormin' Morman? They can sneak up on you and rain on your parade :)

OK, maybe not. Just having some fun with the Morman bit, and to keep it going, keep in mind Jimmer was a 2 star recruit too. (Scout) and I don't think Ainge was some HS hot shot either. Sometimes when you put a player on the floor with other high quality players, they look and play much better than expected.

Strickland is gonna start with KM. Roy might want them on the floor together quite a bit, possibly leaving a few minutes for White at point, if he can earn them. Not saying he's gonna beat Strickland out for anything...

From a Scout article (http://scouthoops.scout.com/2/1060002.html)quoting his HS coach....

“He’s as talented a player as I’ve ever coached,” Queen said. “There’s no doubt in my mind that he can play at any level. He’s a very competitive kid and a very hard working kid.”

Maybe hometown coach speak, maybe not? Well see....But I have to admit when i see a player referred to as "a very hard working kid" its not the most ringing endorsement around.....I'll be as surprised as anyone if he plays much this season too, but I won't count him out just yet..

devildeac
08-31-2011, 09:40 PM
Fear a Morman on the floor! Has no-one learned to beware of a Stormin' Morman? They can sneak up on you and rain on your parade :)

OK, maybe not. Just having some fun with the Morman bit, and to keep it going, keep in mind Jimmer was a 2 star recruit too. (Scout) and I don't think Ainge was some HS hot shot either. Sometimes when you put a player on the floor with other high quality players, they look and play much better than expected.

Strickland is gonna start with KM. Roy might want them on the floor together quite a bit, possibly leaving a few minutes for White at point, if he can earn them. Not saying he's gonna beat Strickland out for anything...

From a Scout article (http://scouthoops.scout.com/2/1060002.html)quoting his HS coach....

“He’s as talented a player as I’ve ever coached,” Queen said. “There’s no doubt in my mind that he can play at any level. He’s a very competitive kid and a very hard working kid.”

Maybe hometown coach speak, maybe not? Well see....But I have to admit when i see a player referred to as "a very hard working kid" its not the most ringing endorsement around.....I'll be as surprised as anyone if he plays much this season too, but I won't count him out just yet..

Minor correction. It's Mormon. 2038

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormons

verga
08-31-2011, 11:28 PM
i believe the one thing that would kill carolina is if Marshall or Barnes were injured. I believe that Marshall is their most important player and the one they can't afford to lose. Other than that happening and i certainly hope it doesn't their
team will be very hard to beat. In the past Roy has continued to push the ball even when they are not shooting well but with their inside game they should be able to survive that. I think Duke has an excellent chance to beat them but until we see who is going to step forward we'll just have to wait and see. GTHCGTH

Wheat/"/"/"
09-01-2011, 12:17 AM
Minor correction. It's Mormon. 2038

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormons

Only minor if you're not Mormon :)...and I spaced 3 times...geezzzz, I really do know better, sometimes I just fail to do better.

oldnavy
09-01-2011, 06:49 AM
Fear a Morman on the floor! Has no-one learned to beware of a Stormin' Morman? They can sneak up on you and rain on your parade :)

OK, maybe not. Just having some fun with the Morman bit, and to keep it going, keep in mind Jimmer was a 2 star recruit too. (Scout) and I don't think Ainge was some HS hot shot either. Sometimes when you put a player on the floor with other high quality players, they look and play much better than expected.

Strickland is gonna start with KM. Roy might want them on the floor together quite a bit, possibly leaving a few minutes for White at point, if he can earn them. Not saying he's gonna beat Strickland out for anything...

From a Scout article (http://scouthoops.scout.com/2/1060002.html)quoting his HS coach....

“He’s as talented a player as I’ve ever coached,” Queen said. “There’s no doubt in my mind that he can play at any level. He’s a very competitive kid and a very hard working kid.”

Maybe hometown coach speak, maybe not? Well see....But I have to admit when i see a player referred to as "a very hard working kid" its not the most ringing endorsement around.....I'll be as surprised as anyone if he plays much this season too, but I won't count him out just yet..

You know you have a really good team when you spend time discussing the merits of the 3rd string PG. White will see VERY limited minutes because he still has Strickland in front of him in the rotation, and Marshall is going to be on the floor MOST of the time unless UNC is just killing the other team.

I am sure White is a decent player, but I doubt that he has to guard ACC caliber PG's very much so even if he can provide some minutes on the floor without turning the ball over, he will almost certainly be a liability on the defensive end. Even Marshall as good as he is, has troubles guarding ACC PG's. Anyway, nice sidebar discussion, but IMO White will have little to no impact on UNC's success barring an injury to KM or DS.

oldnavy
09-01-2011, 07:02 AM
Some good comments, there ChicagoHeel, but I must admit to chuckling when I see "humility" ascribed to a team that has (Prince Harry) Barnes on it.
Okay, some of that is just personality and yes, it was a recruiting war that saw UNC win his services. But there is a basketball aspect to it, also.
It wasn't just Barnes' lack of FT opportunities that was a factor in the team's offense last year; it was also true that he was a bit of a "black hole" who looked for his shot a lot, sometimes to the point of taking difficult shots and not looking for teammates.

We'll have to see how it works out this year...whether the overall talent does add up to team dominance.

Excellent point. Will HB try to showcase himself this year before entering the draft next year? His primary goal in life is to make it to the NBA, so will he try to do too much and if so, will this have an effect on the team chemistry?

I think that this will be something to watch for. Last year he dropped a couple of big shots to win some close games and winning cures a lot of ills.

Maybe it is a reach, but with a team as talented as the heels, you have to look at some intangibles to explore for weakness.

Also, with high expectations comes pressure. How well will the heels play when they are expected to dominate everyone? This is something else I am going to watch as the season goes. Roy is not know for being able to handle adversity and he very well may not have any this year, but if the heels drop a couple of games and the questions start coming... well a fellow can dream can't he?

ClosetHurleyFan
09-01-2011, 11:30 AM
Excellent point. Will HB try to showcase himself this year before entering the draft next year? His primary goal in life is to make it to the NBA, so will he try to do too much and if so, will this have an effect on the team chemistry?

I think that this will be something to watch for. Last year he dropped a couple of big shots to win some close games and winning cures a lot of ills.

Maybe it is a reach, but with a team as talented as the heels, you have to look at some intangibles to explore for weakness.

Also, with high expectations comes pressure. How well will the heels play when they are expected to dominate everyone? This is something else I am going to watch as the season goes. Roy is not know for being able to handle adversity and he very well may not have any this year, but if the heels drop a couple of games and the questions start coming... well a fellow can dream can't he?

Same theme came up with the 2009 team when they dropped a few early ones and I think Roy and crew responded quite nicely by basically destroying the NCAA field (other than LSU). A valid concern in this situation, but one thing this team seems eat up with, perhaps even more so than the 2009 team, is great chemistry, not just on the floor but maybe more importantly, off of it. They seemed to be very, very close knit which could really help ward off issues with intangibles.

moonpie23
09-01-2011, 12:27 PM
our defensive effort will be more important against the heels than any move austin puts on em......

Wheat/"/"/"
10-04-2011, 08:49 AM
A record 4 Heels have made the top 50 pre-season Wooden Award list. (http://www.woodenaward.com/)

Harrison Barnes
Tyler Zeller
John Henson
Kendall Marshall

There are no other ACC players on the list.

It's safe to say expectations are exceptionally high this season for UNC.

devildeac
10-04-2011, 09:14 AM
A record 4 Heels have made the top 50 pre-season Wooden Award list. (http://www.woodenaward.com/)

Harrison Barnes
Tyler Zeller
John Henson
Kendall Marshall

There are no other ACC players on the list.

It's safe to say expectations are exceptionally high this season for UNC.

Looking more and more like an undefeated season. Just to put a little more pressure on those lofty expectations.

Wheat/"/"/"
10-04-2011, 09:34 AM
Looking more and more like an undefeated season. Just to put a little more pressure on those lofty expectations.

Nice try :)

I expect this team to win a title. Anything less will be a disappointment to me.

And I think to them...

gumbomoop
10-04-2011, 10:17 AM
I expect this team to win a title. Anything less will be a disappointment to me.

And I think to them...

This optimism is justified, although I'd imagine many fans of tOSU and UK will be similarly super-optimistic, all "expecting" a NC. At least 2, possibly all 3, groups of legitimately optimistic fan-groups will be disappointed. Devastated, even.

I do not at all question the inclusion of all 4 Heels on this list. But I do wonder about a comment by the ACC coach who said this about HB: [I]"He can manufacture better than most to get his own shot." Perhaps I misunderstand the word "manufacture" here, but I thought the consensus view was that last season HB was not very effective "getting" his own shot, due to his less than sterling handle. If the quote means, "Word is, HB's summer camp work has done wonders for his handle," then, yes, HB will manufacture a much greater variety of O-options and thus even more trouble for opponents.

Wheat/"/"/"
10-04-2011, 10:25 AM
This optimism is justified, although I'd imagine many fans of tOSU and UK will be similarly super-optimistic, all "expecting" a NC. At least 2, possibly all 3, groups of legitimately optimistic fan-groups will be disappointed. Devastated, even.

I do not at all question the inclusion of all 4 Heels on this list. But I do wonder about a comment by the ACC coach who said this about HB: [I]"He can manufacture better than most to get his own shot." Perhaps I misunderstand the word "manufacture" here, but I thought the consensus view was that last season HB was not very effective "getting" his own shot, due to his less than sterling handle. If the quote means, "Word is, HB's summer camp work has done wonders for his handle," then, yes, HB will manufacture a much greater variety of O-options and thus even more trouble for opponents.

I see him as more of a killer taking advantage of cracks and slight mismatches in about any area of the court. A player that is like water torture...just very efficient who will find his way into points.

I'm with you. Hard to see him as a player known for "manufacturing" or "creating" his shots.

gumbomoop
10-04-2011, 10:57 AM
I see him as more of a killer taking advantage of cracks and slight mismatches in about any area of the court. A player that is like water torture...just very efficient who will find his way into points.

I'm with you. Hard to see him as a player known for "manufacturing" or "creating" his shots.

My recollection is that Marshall's taking over was the key to HB's blossoming. Geez, with KM's brilliant passing, all HB had to do was use his speed-power and considerable smarts to get open. KM really does "make everyone better." Alas.

Back to HB, yes, killer, mismatches, super-efficient, smooth-smart. Your phrase, "find his way into points," seems spot on. Though I don't like HB doing so, at least against my guys. I'd guess HB's handle will have improved some from last season, as it's generally understood that he knew it was a weak spot in his game. Say what you want about the guy - and I have - he's admirably focused, determined to be great.

I'm most impressed with players who are relentless. HB sure looks the part. I hope he's faking it, but fear he's not.

davekay1971
10-06-2011, 09:37 AM
Looking more and more like an undefeated season.

I agree. If UNC doesn't go undefeated, win their games by an average of least 20 points, and win EVERY game by no less than 10 points, it will be an abysmal failure of a season. It will be a sign that Roy is an incompetent coach, that the players put themselves above team, and that the team underachieved pathetically. Further, they should finish with all Barnes, Marshall, Henson, and Zeller 1st team all-ACC. Barnes, Henson, and Zeller should all average 20 ppg with Marshall averaging at least 15 apg and a 5:1 assist:turnover ratio. Anything less than those accomplishments will be completely unacceptable.

After all...this is The Dream Team!

(ps: The Rams Club would like to extend grateful thanks to the dedicated sisters of the UNC Chapel Hill Chi Omega sorority for doing their darndest to keep those boys in Chapel Hill! Way to go, girls!)

Wheat/"/"/"
10-06-2011, 09:43 AM
Just a heads up....there's a building buzz that Reggie Bullock is playing very well in the pick up games and is back to 100% healthy.

MulletMan
10-06-2011, 09:53 AM
Just a heads up....there's a building buzz that Reggie Bullock is playing very well in the pick up games and is back to 100% healthy.

Yeah and Nick Horvath used to drain 35 foot 3 balls in the dark in Card gym during the summer.

wilko
10-06-2011, 10:00 AM
I know by posting this I'm part of the problem...
But doesn't it strike anyone else as odd and a little bit sad that the top 2 threads are re: UNC instead of Duke?
SHMH

UrinalCake
10-06-2011, 12:06 PM
Just a heads up....there's a building buzz that Reggie Bullock is playing very well in the pick up games and is back to 100% healthy.

I guess his previous proclamation will finally be true this year: Kyle Singler cannot guard him.

Gewebe14
10-06-2011, 03:20 PM
Just a heads up....there's a building buzz that Reggie Bullock is playing very well in the pick up games and is back to 100% healthy.

Most likely because he's playing pickup against players who learned defense from roy.

Or, then again, maybe he's just dunking on random undergrads who happen to be around.

CDu
10-06-2011, 04:01 PM
Just a heads up....there's a building buzz that Reggie Bullock is playing very well in the pick up games and is back to 100% healthy.

He should certainly be healthy by now, right? I mean, it's been 7 months. I don't think that was really in much doubt. As for the "playing really well" discussion - it's pickup. Very different animal from real basketball. Let's see how he does when facing real defenses and having to compete with Barnes and Hairston for playing time.

Don't get me wrong - there's no reason he shouldn't be a very good player for UNC, especially with Marshall there to create open shots for him. But it's still a "wait until we see it in real games" situation with Bullock.

It's very interesting that UNC has three guys with very similar skill sets (Barnes, Hairston, Bullock - all primarily catch-and-shoot/finish guys with limited ballhandling skills) competing for 60-70 minutes' worth positions worth of playing time. I guess the counter to that is that, with 3 guys competing for those 60-70 minutes, there's a much smaller likelihood that the Heels have a weakness on the floor for long.

Wheat/"/"/"
10-06-2011, 05:23 PM
He should certainly be healthy by now, right? I mean, it's been 7 months. I don't think that was really in much doubt. As for the "playing really well" discussion - it's pickup. Very different animal from real basketball. Let's see how he does when facing real defenses and having to compete with Barnes and Hairston for playing time.

Don't get me wrong - there's no reason he shouldn't be a very good player for UNC, especially with Marshall there to create open shots for him. But it's still a "wait until we see it in real games" situation with Bullock.

It's very interesting that UNC has three guys with very similar skill sets (Barnes, Hairston, Bullock - all primarily catch-and-shoot/finish guys with limited ballhandling skills) competing for 60-70 minutes' worth positions worth of playing time. I guess the counter to that is that, with 3 guys competing for those 60-70 minutes, there's a much smaller likelihood that the Heels have a weakness on the floor for long.

It was his second knee operation, so they have been extra careful with his rehab.

We certainly do need to wait and see, but the "he's healthy and been playing really well" stuff is coming from Roy and fellow players.

He's been a little out of sight- out of mind- around here. It's easy to forget that he came in as a 5* recruit last season with a lot of talent, then lost his grandmother midseason and then got hurt...but yea, we'll see.