Kelly in China

[johnb]

We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.

[gumbomoop]

We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.

I'm guessing you are being deliberately hyperbolic here, to emphasize your point that what is interesting is also altogether speculative right now.

Just to be clear, even if one of our 3 main inside players - Miles, Mason, Ryan - breaks ahead of the other 2, it's very unlikely that any of them would average 32 mpg. If we assume Josh might get some PT, then the Bigs-3 would be splitting maybe 72-75 mpg. Probably in any particular game, any 1 of the 3 might play as much as 30 minutes [though even that would surely be infrequent], but that player might vary from game to game, depending on matchups, who's hot, short-term injury, foul situation, etc. It's even conceivable [translated as: speculative] that Josh might make it Bigs-4, or at least every once in a while play 15-20 minutes in some game[s].

Speculating further, I imagine an emerging consensus on EK that K will gradually winnow by mid-season to a basic 8-rotation, expanding to 9-perhaps, even 10-vaguely-possibly, with the regular-8th guy emerging from, and those 9th/10th guys rotating among: Hairston, Gbinije, Murphy, Cook. My speculation does leave out MP3, who, I have posted elsewhere, will likely play a lot in 2012-13. Roughly speaking, Marshall's years at Duke may profitably mirror that of thread-relevant Ryan Kelly. How closely will depend on who leaves when, who arrives when.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.
Ah, yes, the requisite Nick Horvath warning on preseason practice observations! Well done sir. I personally disagree, and think we will see Ryan preform at this level, and perhaps even higher, as the season progresses, but we have been warned!

[CDu]

We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.

In fairness, I think most people figured Kelly would start for us this year. But I don't think anyone expects Kelly (or any of the bigs) to average 32mpg this year, even after the two big games in China.

The fact that Miles has started over Mason is the more surprising development. But that I think is much more variable (and more surprising) than Kelly starting and playing well.

I don't doubt that Kelly will be a starter and double-digit scorer for us this year. I would be surprised if Miles is the other starter (I expect Mason to take the job back), so that will fun to watch moving forward.

[MCFinARL]

In fairness, I think most people figured Kelly would start for us this year. But I don't think anyone expects Kelly (or any of the bigs) to average 32mpg this year, even after the two big games in China.

The fact that Miles has started over Mason is the more surprising development. But that I think is much more variable (and more surprising) than Kelly starting and playing well.

I don't doubt that Kelly will be a starter and double-digit scorer for us this year. I would be surprised if Miles is the other starter (I expect Mason to take the job back), so that will fun to watch moving forward.

You are probably right. Here's the thing about Miles, though (caveat: based purely on what I have read or seen on TV, with no first-hand knowledge): although his performance may vary, his attitude and work ethic don't appear to. He is always working, trying for loose balls, doing whatever he can to stay involved and contribute to the team. As the only senior on this team, he is starting out modeling hustle and effort--which are important (and maybe even captainly) hallmarks of Duke teams. I could see him holding this starting spot for a while, even if he is the first person subbed out with Mason coming in early in games.

PS--I realize I maybe taking thread off topic here. Apologies.

[Bob Green]

Ryan Kelly looked real good in the second game so I'm optimistic he will make a sophomore to junior leap a la Nolan Smith. As a diehard Duke fan, I sure hope that happens. From a leadership by example perspective, I would not be surprised to see Kelly named Team Captain (or Co-Captain) later this summer. The coaching staff has to be impressed with his continued development.

In regard to Miles and Mason, I've been a long time proponent of Miles due to his interior defense. IMO, he is the best low post big man we have on the defensive end of the court and he deserves to be in the starting line-up. If he can develop some offensive consistency with the jump hook and 8-10 foot jumper, he could be on his way to a superb senior campaign. That left-handed jump hook he knocked down yesterday was impressive.

To be clear, my preference to see Miles start, should not be construed as a negative toward Mason. Mason is uber-athletic and has a huge upside but it appears something hasn't clicked. Once the click happens in Mason's head (visions of Paul Newman just went through my scatter brain), he will be bad news for our opponents. Hopefully, the click happens this season.

Ultimately, when it comes to the minutes per game statistic for Miles and Mason, and to a lesser degree Ryan, foul trouble will be the major determinant. All three are going to play major minutes every game this season if they can stay out of foul trouble.

[oldnavy]

Ryan Kelly looked real good in the second game so I'm optimistic he will make a sophomore to junior leap a la Nolan Smith. As a diehard Duke fan, I sure hope that happens. From a leadership by example perspective, I would not be surprised to see Kelly named Team Captain (or Co-Captain) later this summer. The coaching staff has to be impressed with his continued development.

In regard to Miles and Mason, I've been a long time proponent of Miles due to his interior defense. IMO, he is the best low post big man we have on the defensive end of the court and he deserves to be in the starting line-up. If he can develop some offensive consistency with the jump hook and 8-10 foot jumper, he could be on his way to a superb senior campaign. That left-handed jump hook he knocked down yesterday was impressive.

To be clear, my preference to see Miles start, should not be construed as a negative toward Mason. Mason is uber-athletic and has a huge upside but it appears something hasn't clicked. Once the click happens in Mason's head (visions of Paul Newman just went through my scatter brain), he will be bad news for our opponents. Hopefully, the click happens this season.

Ultimately, when it comes to the minutes per game statistic for Miles and Mason, and to a lesser degree Ryan, foul trouble will be the major determinant. All three are going to play major minutes every game this season if they can stay out of foul trouble.

Bob, I agree with your assessment. I hope Mason has that Alaa Abdelnaby type moment. Remember how he just seemed to get it one day and from that point on had a fantastic year?

[MChambers]

Bob, I agree with your assessment. I hope Mason has that Alaa Abdelnaby type moment. Remember how he just seemed to get it one day and from that point on had a fantastic year?
I actually think Mason gets a lot of it, but he really struggles on offense, especially as to scoring. His rebounding is excellent and his defense improved greatly last year. He's a decent ballhandler for his size and makes some very nice passes. But he can't shoot to save his life and I think that influences all of his offensive play. In particular, I think he's scared to get fouled, because he has to go to the line. (I think this was one of Chris Webber's problems as a player.) I was pleased to see earlier this summer that Miles said that Mason was learning to play through contact. He's got to do that if he's going to contribute in the low post.

[Scorp4me]

In fairness, I think most people figured Kelly would start for us this year. But I don't think anyone expects Kelly (or any of the bigs) to average 32mpg this year, even after the two big games in China.

The fact that Miles has started over Mason is the more surprising development. But that I think is much more variable (and more surprising) than Kelly starting and playing well.

I don't doubt that Kelly will be a starter and double-digit scorer for us this year. I would be surprised if Miles is the other starter (I expect Mason to take the job back), so that will fun to watch moving forward.

I've never understood why everyone is so down on Miles. Even when he does good everyone seems to just be waiting for him to screw up or Mason to perform better. Wasn't Miles a starter last year at the end of the season? Seems to me it's his position to lose...except for the fact that everyone has to earn their spot, but you know what I mean.

[Kedsy]

To be clear, my preference to see Miles start, should not be construed as a negative toward Mason. Mason is uber-athletic and has a huge upside but it appears something hasn't clicked. Once the click happens in Mason's head (visions of Paul Newman just went through my scatter brain), he will be bad news for our opponents. Hopefully, the click happens this season.

Even without the "click," Mason is bad news for our opponents. I was watching the highlights this morning and I said to myself -- we have something special going on when Mason Plumlee is the 6th best player on our team.

[nmduke2001]

I wish Mason would embrace his inner Rodman. With his size and athleticism Mason could be a dominate defender and rebounder.

[ArkieDukie]

Ah, yes, the requisite Nick Horvath warning on preseason practice observations! Well done sir. I personally disagree, and think we will see Ryan preform at this level, and perhaps even higher, as the season progresses, but we have been warned!

I agree with our esteemed Paradigm of Optimism. IMO RK's game improved greatly between his freshman and sophomore seasons. If he improved to a similar degree during this off-season, he will be a significant contributor this year. I was a HUGE fan of his game last year and look forward to seeing continued improvement.

[CDu]

I've never understood why everyone is so down on Miles. Even when he does good everyone seems to just be waiting for him to screw up or Mason to perform better. Wasn't Miles a starter last year at the end of the season? Seems to me it's his position to lose...except for the fact that everyone has to earn their spot, but you know what I mean.

I'm not at all down on Miles. I was just expecting Mason to be the better player of the two. Both can be good, but only 2 of the 3 main bigs can start.

Also, I don't know why you'd say it's Miles' position to lose. Mason started 32 games last year compared with Miles's 15. Obviously everyone has to earn their spot, but wouldn't the logical assumption (with no new information, of course) be that the bigs who started most last year would start most this year too?

Given that Kelly and Mason each started about twice as many games as Miles, it would seem logical to me that both would be the expected starters to start the year. Thus, I think Miles starting over Mason is surprising. It's not a knock on Miles, but an acknowledgement that Mason showed more last year.

[MCFinARL]

I wish Mason would embrace his inner Rodman. With his size and athleticism Mason could be a dominate defender and rebounder.

WOW! It's pretty hard to imagine Mason with pink hair in a wedding dress....

[weezie]

we will see Ryan preform at this level, and perhaps even higher, as the season progresses

He does look terrific. Much more coordinated and pulled together. He's getting the knack of being where the ball is and where the ball is about to go, just like Kyle.
Suddenly, I'm in a much better frame of mind. Except for those new smilies, yikes!

[Scorp4me]

I'm not at all down on Miles. I was just expecting Mason to be the better player of the two. Both can be good, but only 2 of the 3 main bigs can start.

Also, I don't know why you'd say it's Miles' position to lose. Mason started 32 games last year compared with Miles's 15. Obviously everyone has to earn their spot, but wouldn't the logical assumption (with no new information, of course) be that the bigs who started most last year would start most this year too?

Given that Kelly and Mason each started about twice as many games as Miles, it would seem logical to me that both would be the expected starters to start the year. Thus, I think Miles starting over Mason is surprising. It's not a knock on Miles, but an acknowledgement that Mason showed more last year.

I didn't mean to imply it was just you CDu and I apologize if I did.

As for saying it's Miles to lose, while he may not have started as many games he was starting at the end of the season. In fact I believe it was Mason and Miles starting wasn't it? At first I thought it was Kelly and Miles, hence my comment. And since Kelly is playing like a maniac I guess it comes down to Mason and Miles...since as you pointed out only 2 can start.

I'll grant you that Miles started less last year, but they were both starting at the end of last year and Miles is the Senior. So I suppose an argument could be made it's both theirs to lose...and Kelly took one =)

[mo.st.dukie]

I wish Mason would embrace his inner Rodman. With his size and athleticism Mason could be a dominate defender and rebounder.

Miles can be a dominant defender and rebounder too. He has just as much size and athleticism as Mason, he's actually much stronger and more physical than Mason. Miles was better in that one game. He showed some good moves in the paint with good footwork, and was just so much more aggressive than Mason. If that continues I don't see any reason why Mason would start over Miles. I think Mason has just been so hyped up, even since is junior year of high school, and Miles has been more in the background that people expect Mason to be better because that's what we've all been told for a good 3 or 4 years now. Hopefully they can both play to their potential on a consistent basis. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Miles was the starter for the rest of the year. He's athletic, strong, willing to mix it up in the paint, and has a better offensive game than Mason at this point (although he's not a great offensive player).

[Devilsfan]

It's a team sport and while Kelly is headed for stardom and possibly a future captain's role the Plumlees will get their minutes.

[uh_no]

It's a team sport and while Kelly is headed for stardom and possibly a future captain's role the Plumlees will get their minutes.

Were captains ever decided this year?

[wk2109]

I'm excited about Ryan's last game too, but I think it should be pointed out that while he made some heady plays and pulled out some moves that he's never displayed at Duke before, a lot of his points came on open jumpers. I wonder if everyone would be raving about him if he had missed a couple of those shots -- it's not like he's going to shoot that well every game, even though he is a very good shooter.

I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer because I do have high hopes for Ryan. I made the Dirk comment on the other thread and I really can see him being a sort of college version of Dirk (a not-terribly-athletic stretch 4 who can shoot and rebound well and play with high basketball IQ).

[Son of Jarhead]

Ryan has impressed me in both these games. He had some similar games last year, but quite wasn't consistant enough. I expect he to improve in that regard this year. The biggest factor in lost playing time for him in some games, just like last year, may be defensive match-ups if the opponent has a player who is really a 3 playing the 4. Hopefully, those 10 pounds lost the TV guys mentioned will help Ryan stay with those players.

It seems to me that the biggest differences between Miles & Mason are confidence & consistancy. It looks like the coaches have gotten Miles to play to his strengths, and it looks like he has been working really hard on his game, so his confidence is high & they know what they'll get from him. Mason has been more inconsistant, it seems to me he is not playing instinctively on offense and he occassionally tries to do too much. I expect Miles will continue to play well, & for Mason, I expect that "click" to come this season, perhaps just when we need it most.

[gep]

It appeared to me that the game "really slowed down" for Ryan. He wasn't rushing, just "doing". Looked really good too. Must be the "facial hair"...

Miles looked to be very aggressive, and playing to his role. I know I saw him dive on the floor for 1 loose ball... maybe a couple more. But he's in there banging away. I see a very good senior year for Miles. Others have mentioned that his offense may not be very good, but that may not be his role either. Remember Zoubs...

GO DUKE!!!!

[basket1544]

Many have said Ryan is embracing the Zou-beard, but to me he is embracing the #34. He reminded me of Dunleavy this last game: able to put up a 3, able to go to the basket with a hook shot, and able to shoot the mid-range jumper. Ryan just needs better on ball defense and he'll be there.
Miles, on the other hand, reminds me of Zoubs so far. His tenacity at the backboard, his drive to get every loose ball, and he's playing strong. I see both Ryan and Miles as captains for this team (probably with Seth).
Mason played well in the game I saw. The box score doesn't reflect that because he was saddled with fouls, but with refs that know how to do their job Mason will get in the flow better. He has more to learn definitely and I think he should skip summer pickup games because they tend to ruin him for half-court offense, but he's getting there. He's so talented, he just needs to work on his free throws and post moves and he'll be there.

[throatybeard]

2011

[NSDukeFan]

Miles can be a dominant defender and rebounder too. He has just as much size and athleticism as Mason, he's actually much stronger and more physical than Mason. Miles was better in that one game. He showed some good moves in the paint with good footwork, and was just so much more aggressive than Mason. If that continues I don't see any reason why Mason would start over Miles. I think Mason has just been so hyped up, even since is junior year of high school, and Miles has been more in the background that people expect Mason to be better because that's what we've all been told for a good 3 or 4 years now. Hopefully they can both play to their potential on a consistent basis. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Miles was the starter for the rest of the year. He's athletic, strong, willing to mix it up in the paint, and has a better offensive game than Mason at this point (although he's not a great offensive player).

Yes, Mason has been the more hyped of the brothers. The other interesting thing is that over a full season last year, Mason was also the much more productive player. I am a big fan of Miles and am hoping he has a great senior season that includes some starts. But, I am not yet ready to concede Mason's place in the regular starting line-up or his position as a member of an all-ACC team based on a couple of games half-way around the world with different rules, a different ball, very different refs, in August.

[MCFinARL]

Were captains ever decided this year?

I don't think so. IIRC, something was said earlier about waiting until after the China trip to see who emerged as team leaders. Here is a Watzone interview with Coach K, posted earlier.

http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/06/monday-musings-coach-k-on-captains-hoops-football-recruiting/

[mo.st.dukie]

Yes, Mason has been the more hyped of the brothers. The other interesting thing is that over a full season last year, Mason was also the much more productive player. I am a big fan of Miles and am hoping he has a great senior season that includes some starts. But, I am not yet ready to concede Mason's place in the regular starting line-up or his position as a member of an all-ACC team based on a couple of games half-way around the world with different rules, a different ball, very different refs, in August.

Yep, Mason was much more productive last season and he just may be more productive this season. And like I said, I REALLY want them BOTH to be highly productive. Mason put up Shelden type of rebounding numbers last year and hopefully he can do the same this year. But Miles is more physical in the paint and, to me at least, seems to have more natural basketball movements than Mason. And I've always thought Miles had a slightly better offensive game than Mason. I was just pointing out that Miles often gets overlooked. I have no idea who is going to start/get the majority of the minutes and, like I said in my original post, it was just one game and we'll see how Miles does as time goes. I will admit, though, that I am partial to the more physical style of play Miles brings to the table, a perfect complement to the beautiful finesse game of Ryan Kelly.

[Teton Jack]

Kelly reminds me of Bobby Jones (UNC in the 1970's), not physically but in how he plays. My high school team played South Mecklenburg, Bobby Jones high school, at least twice a year and when he was at UNC there were always 2-3 games vs. Duke. He looked so frail and unathletic, making you think you could push him around but he just played the game very intelligently and always found a way to win - the scrappy tip in, the short range jumper, the unexpected block or rebound. Teams need players like Kelly and Jones to go deep in the NCAA - players who understand the game and can make up for their limitations with their basketball IQ.

TJ

[UrinalCake]

We often think of the Plumlees as being interchangable on the court, but IMO Miles is more of a true center while Mason plays better as a 4. Since Kelly is definitely a 4, it kind of makes sense that Miles would start alongside him. Nevertheless, as many have said it's still really early and a lot can change. Kelly's game is really well suited to the international style of play, and hopefully that will translate back home but we'll have to see. Last year Mason started out great and then sort of tapered off once Kyrie went down. I imagine there will be a lot of shuffling within the starting lineup throughout the year, and hopefully it will take shape by the midpoint of the ACC season.

I also think that the two Plumlees play really well when they're on the floor together. They seem to find each other and to cover for each other defensively. The only way I could really see this happening would be for them to both start, or for Kelly to start with Hairston or MP3 (not likely).

[DukeGirl4ever]

Like many others have said, Ryan Kelly has been most impressive in the two games that I've watched. He doesn't force things, he lets the game come to him, and he just surprises people with his basketball IQ, because quite frankly, he doesn't look like a ball player. We've had a couple of guys that have played for us in the past that come to mind (Jon Scheyer as of late) and I think we will see Kelly become a leader of this team.

I hope the Zoubeard stays....it's got attitude!

[ScreechTDX1847]

He looked great today too. He is moving much better with and without the ball.

[jv001]

Kelly reminds me of Bobby Jones (UNC in the 1970's), not physically but in how he plays. My high school team played South Mecklenburg, Bobby Jones high school, at least twice a year and when he was at UNC there were always 2-3 games vs. Duke. He looked so frail and unathletic, making you think you could push him around but he just played the game very intelligently and always found a way to win - the scrappy tip in, the short range jumper, the unexpected block or rebound. Teams need players like Kelly and Jones to go deep in the NCAA - players who understand the game and can make up for their limitations with their basketball IQ.

TJ

Bobby Jones was a much better leaper who could really defend and he played well in the pros. Still I'm looking for Ryan to have a very good season. GoDuke!

[MChambers]

Bobby Jones was a much better leaper who could really defend and he played well in the pros. Still I'm looking for Ryan to have a very good season. GoDuke!

Bobby Jones was also pretty darned fast. I do think Ryan is a far better shooter, however.

[DukieInBrasil]

Bobby Jones was a much better leaper who could really defend and he played well in the pros. Still I'm looking for Ryan to have a very good season. GoDuke!

Ryan had a one-handed put back stuff today, plus he's been dunking alot in the Pro-Am games, so apparently the leaping ability has improved with the lost weight the announcers kept talking about.

[ACCBBallFan]

I wish Mason would embrace his inner Rodman. With his size and athleticism Mason could be a dominate defender and rebounder.

Though it is understandable if the Chineese scorekeeper sometimes credited rebounds to the incorrect M Plumlee, I was surprised to see that Mason only had a total of 9 in the 3 games while Austin had 12, Ryan 27 and Miles 32.

That said, I do agree and he showed he could rebound in double digits 14 times and averaged 8.4 boards last year.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/45913/mason-plumlee

It seems that between them, in any given game one Plumlee plays well and the other average or in foul trouble, and the variable may be size versus quickness of the opponent's front line.

Unless Duke opts to play Alex at PF/WF2 some against smaller teams. it looks like the minutes will for the most part be about 25 each to Mason, Miles and Ryan with 5 elsewhere. Foul trouble will prevent either Plumlee from averaging much more PT than that. Last year Mason averaged 25.6 MPG, Ryan 20.1 MPG and Miles 17.0 MPG and the only "big" Duke lost was Kyle who split 34.8 MPG at PF and SF. Josh's 6.1 MPG average is deceptive isnce he only played in 27 of Duke's 37 games, an average of 4.5 across the 37 games.

Other than UNC with Zeller, Henson and McAdoo, the ACC is not loaded with trios of returning bigs or very highly rated PF/C::

Miami has Reggie Johnson after he recovers from injury and Julian Gamble
FSU has Xavier Gibson, Bernard James and Terrance Shannon who played well only vs. Duke
State has Richard Howell, Deshawn Painter, Vandenbereg and CJ Leslie.
UVA has Mike Scott returning from injury and Assane Sene
Clemson has Devon Booker and Milton Jennings
VA Tech has Victor Davilla and medium sized JT Thompson returning from injury
Wake has Travis McKie and Nikita Mescharikov, Carson Desrosiers after losing Ty Walker and Melvin Tabb due to extracurriculars
GA Tech has Daniel Miller and Kammeron Holsey
MD lost Jordan Williams and Dino Gregory and only has James Padgett and Berend Weijs
BC lost Joe Trapani and Josh Southern and has no one to speak of.

So Ryan Kelly as a mismatch and the Plumlees should dominate rest of ACC and play UNC and FSU fairly evenly, depending on whether Barnes as a WF is considered a big or a perimeter player. Same for UNC who will dominate all ACC bigs, except Duke and FSU can keep it reasonably close.

[CDu]

Though it is understandable if the Chineese scorekeeper sometimes credited rebounds to the incorrect M Plumlee, I was surprised to see that Mason only had a total of 9 in the 3 games while Austin had 12, Ryan 27 and Miles 32.

I think the 9 rebounds in 3 games is unfortunately probably accurate. The guy just didn't get a ton of minutes in these games due to the foul trouble. And when he was in, he wasn't getting a lot of rebounds. He still did some nice things out there, but rebounding wasn't one of them. This is strange, because in the latter half of last year he was very consistently getting a ton of rebounds.

[Saratoga2]

Kelly reminds me of Bobby Jones (UNC in the 1970's), not physically but in how he plays. My high school team played South Mecklenburg, Bobby Jones high school, at least twice a year and when he was at UNC there were always 2-3 games vs. Duke. He looked so frail and unathletic, making you think you could push him around but he just played the game very intelligently and always found a way to win - the scrappy tip in, the short range jumper, the unexpected block or rebound. Teams need players like Kelly and Jones to go deep in the NCAA - players who understand the game and can make up for their limitations with their basketball IQ.

TJ

To you older guys, he reminds me more of Kevin McHale of the old Celtics. He's an inch shorter, but like McHale, seems to have an innate ability to sense the defense and adjust to it. McHale was the best around the basket, with a variety of moves. Maybe in time Kelly can duplicate that kind of prowess.

[CDu]

To you older guys, he reminds me more of Kevin McHale of the old Celtics. He's an inch shorter, but like McHale, seems to have an innate ability to sense the defense and adjust to it. McHale was the best around the basket, with a variety of moves. Maybe in time Kelly can duplicate that kind of prowess.

I don't really see much Kevin McHale in terms of Kelly's game. They're similarly built, but McHale was almost exclusively a post player while Kelly is almost exclusively a perimeter player. Kelly is a smart player, but he's still primarily a gifted perimeter shooter rather than a presence around the basket.

[ikiru36]

I don't really see much Kevin McHale in terms of Kelly's game. They're similarly built, but McHale was almost exclusively a post player while Kelly is almost exclusively a perimeter player. Kelly is a smart player, but he's still primarily a gifted perimeter shooter rather than a presence around the basket.

I'm not sure why people are looking back for correlates to Kelly's play style and skills when Dirk Nowitzki seems such a clear recent example. (BTW, I know that other's have already mentioned Nowitzki, but the thought occurred to me as well without having seen other's commentary.)

Glad to have people pick apart why it's a poor comparison, but the skill sets seem highly analogous to me. Of course, I'm not really placing Dirk-like expectations on Kelly's shoulders given that we're talking about 2 witnessed summer games against inferior (though not terrible) competition. When last we saw Dirk, he was giving a Hall of Fame performance against Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade and Lebron James.

Dirk has a couple of more inches of height and is probably (quite) a bit better at everything than Kelly. But...having watched the 2 games, I'd almost be surprised if Kelly doesn't have a picture of Mr. Nowitzki up in his locker. A 6'10" player (with established, if streaky, shooting credentials combined with decent handle, coordination and athleticism) could certainly choose a worse role model.

Go Ryan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[magjayran]

Ryan had a one-handed put back stuff today, plus he's been dunking alot in the Pro-Am games, so apparently the leaping ability has improved with the lost weight the announcers kept talking about.

I don't know if he's getting up much higher than he was in the past but I think he's definitely a step quicker which has lead to more dunks. In the pro-am he was running the floor pretty well and getting around defenders better. The one handed put back was sweet but I think more a result of his impeccable timing than leaping ability. I think Ryan has the best timing of all the big men which is why he gets roughly the same amount of blocks (if not more) than the more athletic Plumlees.

I definitely think he's found his sweet spot in terms of weight.

[CDu]

I'm not sure why people are looking back for correlates to Kelly's play style and skills when Dirk Nowitzki seems such a clear recent example. (BTW, I know that other's have already mentioned Nowitzki, but the thought occurred to me as well without having seen other's commentary.)

Glad to have people pick apart why it's a poor comparison, but the skill sets seem highly analogous to me. Of course, I'm not really placing Dirk-like expectations on Kelly's shoulders given that we're talking about 2 witnessed summer games against inferior (though not terrible) competition. When last we saw Dirk, he was giving a Hall of Fame performance against Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade and Lebron James.

Dirk has a couple of more inches of height and is probably (quite) a bit better at everything than Kelly. But...having watched the 2 games, I'd almost be surprised if Kelly doesn't have a picture of Mr. Nowitzki up in his locker. A 6'10" player (with established, if streaky, shooting credentials combined with decent handle, coordination and athleticism) could certainly choose a worse role model.

Go Ryan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree that Nowitzki is a much better comp in terms of skill set than McHale or Bobby Jones. Dirk has a better post scoring ame, is 2-4" taller, and is a better and more diverse shooter. But a poor man's Nowitzki is a much better comp, in my opinion.

[sagegrouse]

I agree that Nowitzki is a much better comp in terms of skill set than McHale or Bobby Jones. Dirk has a better post scoring ame, is 2-4" taller, and is a better and more diverse shooter. But a poor man's Nowitzki is a much better comp, in my opinion.


Here are the heights and weights of Dirk and Ryan from NBA.com and GoDuke.com. Looks like one inch to me. --sagegrouse



Dirk Nowitzki
#41
Forward

Height: 7-0 / 2.13

Weight: 245 lbs. / 111.1 kg.


----------------------------------

#34 Ryan Kelly

Position: Forward
Height: 6'11"
Weight: 230
Year: Junior

[DukieInBrasil]

I agree that Nowitzki is a much better comp in terms of skill set than McHale or Bobby Jones. Dirk has a better post scoring ame, is 2-4" taller, and is a better and more diverse shooter. But a poor man's Nowitzki is a much better comp, in my opinion.

as Sage pointed out, the height difference may only be an inch, and a collegiate Kelly still has time to gain 15 lbs to catch up to old-man Nowitzki in weight, although 15 lbs on Ryan may not be helpful. Anyway, I have no idea what the answer to this question is but: how good was Dirk at Ryan's age? I'll go ahead and assume he was pretty good/awesome, but by the end of this year we may be saying the same thing of Ryan.

[MChambers]

as Sage pointed out, the height difference may only be an inch, and a collegiate Kelly still has time to gain 15 lbs to catch up to old-man Nowitzki in weight, although 15 lbs on Ryan may not be helpful. Anyway, I have no idea what the answer to this question is but: how good was Dirk at Ryan's age? I'll go ahead and assume he was pretty good/awesome, but by the end of this year we may be saying the same thing of Ryan.
Not sure of Ryan's exact age, but Nowitzki was drafted #6 in the NBA draft about the time he turned 20. Had a rough rookie year, but he did score 8 points a game. Hope this puts the comparison in perspective.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nowitzki#Dallas_Mavericks_.281998.E2.80.93present. 29

[CDu]

as Sage pointed out, the height difference may only be an inch, and a collegiate Kelly still has time to gain 15 lbs to catch up to old-man Nowitzki in weight, although 15 lbs on Ryan may not be helpful. Anyway, I have no idea what the answer to this question is but: how good was Dirk at Ryan's age? I'll go ahead and assume he was pretty good/awesome, but by the end of this year we may be saying the same thing of Ryan.

I'm always skeptical of college heights, so I'm not convinced Kelly is actually 6'11". Conversely, Nowitzki looks at least 7'0" if not taller. Hence my 2-4" difference in height estimate. But that's neither here nor there.

Nowitzki was much further along than Kelly at the same age. As a teenager, he was leading a pro team (albeit a German league pro team) and had a dominant performance in the Nike Hoops Summit. At 20, Nowitzki was an NBA regular averaging 8.2 ppg as a reserve. At 21, he averaged 17.5 ppg as a full-time starter.

[superdave]

I'm always skeptical of college heights, so I'm not convinced Kelly is actually 6'11". Conversely, Nowitzki looks at least 7'0" if not taller. Hence my 2-4" difference in height estimate. But that's neither here nor there.

Nowitzki was much further along than Kelly at the same age. As a teenager, he was leading a pro team (albeit a German league pro team) and had a dominant performance in the Nike Hoops Summit. At 20, Nowitzki was an NBA regular averaging 8.2 ppg as a reserve. At 21, he averaged 17.5 ppg as a full-time starter.

I think Matt Bonner from Florida and now the Spurs is a good comparison for Kelly. Bonner can guard on the inside and knock down jump shots. He's 6'10'' and 235 lbs. In college he went from 5 to 13 to 15 points per game his first three years and steadily improved his 3 point %.

[Li_Duke]

Bonner is kind of slow. I like to think of Kelly developing like Ryan Anderson currently playing for the Orlando Magic. Good PER and efficiency as an NBA sometime starter, sometime back-up.

[lotusland]

I don't really see much Kevin McHale in terms of Kelly's game. They're similarly built, but McHale was almost exclusively a post player while Kelly is almost exclusively a perimeter player. Kelly is a smart player, but he's still primarily a gifted perimeter shooter rather than a presence around the basket.

Yeah McHale was an all time great post player and great defender who became more of a perimeter shooter after Bird retired. Ryan is a better or at least a more willing passer though. McHale's buddy Danny Ainge dubbed him the "the black hole" because when the ball went inside to McHale it wasn't coming back out. Man I really miss that era in the NBA!

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah McHale was an all time great post player and great defender who became more of a perimeter shooter after Bird retired. Ryan is a better or at least a more willing passer though. McHale's buddy Danny Ainge dubbed him the "the black hole" because when the ball went inside to McHale it wasn't coming back out. Man I really miss that era in the NBA!

The good thing for the Celtics at that time was that 55-60% of the time the ball was going into the basket after whichever post move he tried. So, although Ainge may not have seen the ball again that possession, usually good things happened. Of course, that is nowhere near as impressive as Ryan's shooting during his streak last year. :)

[lotusland]

The good thing for the Celtics at that time was that 55-60% of the time the ball was going into the basket after whichever post move he tried. So, although Ainge may not have seen the ball again that possession, usually good things happened. Of course, that is nowhere near as impressive as Ryan's shooting during his streak last year. :)

McHale made it look so simple I wondered why more bigs didn't learn his moves. Guess it's harder than it looks but for a guy who couldn't run or jump very well, he moved pretty good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=DopFnYmYoWE

[NSDukeFan]

McHale made it look so simple I wondered why more bigs didn't learn his moves. Guess it's harder than it looks but for a guy who couldn't run or jump very well, he moved pretty good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=DopFnYmYoWE

I think you hit the nail on the head. He made it "look" so easy. Duke has a couple of big men who are very athletic, very coordinated, very intelligent young men who haven't mastered the jump hook yet, and that was one of about 20 of McHale's moves.

[Saratoga2]

I'm always skeptical of college heights, so I'm not convinced Kelly is actually 6'11". Conversely, Nowitzki looks at least 7'0" if not taller. Hence my 2-4" difference in height estimate. But that's neither here nor there.

Nowitzki was much further along than Kelly at the same age. As a teenager, he was leading a pro team (albeit a German league pro team) and had a dominant performance in the Nike Hoops Summit. At 20, Nowitzki was an NBA regular averaging 8.2 ppg as a reserve. At 21, he averaged 17.5 ppg as a full-time starter.

Kelly himself said he was 6'9 3/4" in stocking feet whereas Nowitzki looks more like a true 7 footer in stocking feet. That gives Dirk an advantage in shooting over people. The reason I compared Ryan to Kevin McHale is that while both are not particularly athletic and while McHale is at least an inch taller, both had(have) a good perimiter shot. Ryan's is deeper, but Kevin could hit from midrange.

This is really commenting on other prior posts. I also say similarities in the way both Kevin and Ryan could (can) block shots due to their good timing and positioning. Finally, last year I say Ryan put a killer drop step on an opponent and feel he could do that more often if he played more inside. His height is sufficient in the college game to utilize that ability. Both these guys were(are) smart players with a lot more facets to their game than just an outside shooter. Give Ryan more credit. He can become a scorer with more aspects to his game and I believe it will show this year.

[gumbomoop]

Give Ryan more credit. He can become a scorer with more aspects to his game and I believe it will show this year.

I assume most posters think Ryan will have a true break-out year, very likely to average double-figures, maybe mid-teens.

Also certain, IMO, that in 2012-'13 Ryan will be a go-to guy, with lots and lots of touches. I personally hope he does not wait until 2012-'13 to insist, and not always politely, that his teammates get him the ball. He does not appear the assertive type. Say he's not exactly Laettner. Even with all the talent on this team, Nolan, Kyle, and Kyrie are - surprise! - no longer around, so there's no reason for Ryan to "wait his turn."

[CDu]

Kelly himself said he was 6'9 3/4" in stocking feet whereas Nowitzki looks more like a true 7 footer in stocking feet. That gives Dirk an advantage in shooting over people. The reason I compared Ryan to Kevin McHale is that while both are not particularly athletic and while McHale is at least an inch taller, both had(have) a good perimiter shot. Ryan's is deeper, but Kevin could hit from midrange.

This is really commenting on other prior posts. I also say similarities in the way both Kevin and Ryan could (can) block shots due to their good timing and positioning. Finally, last year I say Ryan put a killer drop step on an opponent and feel he could do that more often if he played more inside. His height is sufficient in the college game to utilize that ability. Both these guys were(are) smart players with a lot more facets to their game than just an outside shooter. Give Ryan more credit. He can become a scorer with more aspects to his game and I believe it will show this year.

I think I'm giving Kelly plenty of credit. I think he's going to be very good for us this year. I just don't see the similarities in style between McHale and Kelly. Kelly has always been a perimeter-oriented player who may be developing post moves, while McHale was a post-oriented player who had good range. Showing an occasional drop step is a far cry from the nuanced and versatile low-post game that McHale had. And I actually think that Kelly's range is better at this point than McHale's was at the same age (probably in part due to the use of the 3pt line). I just don't see that particular comp.

[SilkyJ]

I assume most posters think Ryan will have a true break-out year, very likely to average double-figures, maybe mid-teens.

Also certain, IMO, that in 2012-'13 Ryan will be a go-to guy, with lots and lots of touches. I personally hope he does not wait until 2012-'13 to insist, and not always politely, that his teammates get him the ball. He does not appear the assertive type. Say he's not exactly Laettner. Even with all the talent on this team, Nolan, Kyle, and Kyrie are - surprise! - no longer around, so there's no reason for Ryan to "wait his turn."

Count me squarely in the "get Ryan some touches" camp. Unfortunately, my gut is that, like you said, he does not appear to be the assertive type. He's had great games on this int'l swing, but he did it without getting many touches or shots. In a way I guess that's a good thing b/c he was so efficient, but at the same time I'd like him to take some more shots, even if it comes at the expense of a drop in FG% (of course when you hardly miss, its hard for your FG% to go anywhere but down).

Other than Austin, Ryan appears to me to be the only person who can consistently get their own shot (Seth needs ball screens, Dre is still a jumpshooter, the Plumlees can dunk, and the other freshman are going to be role players). He's certainly our most fluid post player, and the only one with any type of moves, so at his height I'm happy to live with dumping the ball into him on the block and letting him try to score in any number of ways. Fadeaways, drop steps, hooks, he actually has an arsenal...and when they're taken from 8-10 feet by someone who has touch, I consider them to be good shots. Besides, it'll force us to not be as reliant on the 3-ball (aka 1M (http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/DBRHPR7.1asPDF.pdf)), which right now we look to be. Don't get me wrong, Dre and Seth are snipers, and Ryan has range too, but its nice to have a high % option on a cold shooting night.

I see this as something that is incumbent on the coaches to force. I don't see Ryan demanding the ball, so we'll have to run sets for him. Anyone got K's number? I'll let him know what I think (aka 1K (http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/DBRHPR7.1asPDF.pdf) :) )

[77devil]

Count me squarely in the "get Ryan some touches" camp. Unfortunately, my gut is that, like you said, he does not appear to be the assertive type. He's had great games on this int'l swing, but he did it without getting many touches or shots. In a way I guess that's a good thing b/c he was so efficient, but at the same time I'd like him to take some more shots, even if it comes at the expense of a drop in FG% (of course when you hardly miss, its hard for your FG% to go anywhere but down).

Other than Austin, Ryan appears to me to be the only person who can consistently get their own shot (Seth needs ball screens, Dre is still a jumpshooter, the Plumlees can dunk, and the other freshman are going to be role players). He's certainly our most fluid post player, and the only one with any type of moves, so at his height I'm happy to live with dumping the ball into him on the block and letting him try to score in any number of ways. Fadeaways, drop steps, hooks, he actually has an arsenal...and when they're taken from 8-10 feet by someone who has touch, I consider them to be good shots. Besides, it'll force us to not be as reliant on the 3-ball (aka 1M (http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/DBRHPR7.1asPDF.pdf)), which right now we look to be. Don't get me wrong, Dre and Seth are snipers, and Ryan has range too, but its nice to have a high % option on a cold shooting night.

I see this as something that is incumbent on the coaches to force. I don't see Ryan demanding the ball, so we'll have to run sets for him. Anyone got K's number? I'll let him know what I think (aka 1K (http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/DBRHPR7.1asPDF.pdf) :) )

(919) 613-7500 but I believe he is out of town. ;)

Incidentally, at 14 pages Coach K has the longest "bio" I've ever seen.