Quinn Cook out for a while(Update: Cook Back to 100%!)

[Lord Ash]

To rest his knee, expected to be back for preseason practice. (http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2011-08-09/duke-shuts-down-injured-freshman-quinn-cook)

[DukieInBrasil]

Would have been great to get him some chemistry in game situations early, but it is better to be healthy than rush things.

[licc85]

Wow, I didn't realize his knee was still bothering him that much. This came as a surprised to me. Hope he heals up to 100% in the provided time frame.

[lotusland]

Wow, I didn't realize his knee was still bothering him that much. This came as a surprised to me. Hope he heals up to 100% in the provided time frame. Redshirt? Seems like I read somewhere that certain players would be evaluated for the possibility of being redshirted during the China trip. If his knee is bothering him before the season starts then I see no reason to rush him back considering that we have Seth, Tyler and AR who is supposed to be a play maker. I can't see redshirting MP3 or Murphy considering that we may lose MP2 as well as MP1 after this year. Maybe no one sits out this year but without any inside knowledge I'd rate Q most likely to Redshirt at this point.

[Newton_14]

Redshirt? Seems like I read somewhere that certain players would be evaluated for the possibility of being redshirted during the China trip. If his knee is bothering him before the season starts then I see no reason to rush him back considering that we have Seth, Tyler and AR who is supposed to be a play maker. I can't see redshirting MP3 or Murphy considering that we may lose MP2 as well as MP1 after this year. Maybe no one sits out this year but without any inside knowledge I'd rate Q most likely to Redshirt at this point.

I would say that is a fair assessment. I won't speculate on why the knee keeps acting up, but if needs more time to get to absolute 100% healed and healthy, I would rather he redshirt given the deep backcourt we will have. Use this year to get fully healthy and learn the system. I hate he is still having trouble though. Stinks that he can't play in China.

Currently the evidence on Murphy suggests he will be a factor this year, so don't see him as a Red Shirt candidate any longer, and I agree that MP3 will need some real court time this year to prepare for lots of minutes next year.

Get well soon Quinn! We are wishing Godspeed and healing on the knee!

[Devilsfan]

He must be a terrific young man to be backed so hard by Nolan and taken when he had the knee. Hope he recovers and becomes a star.

[jipops]

It doesn't seem like we've had the best of luck lately in regards to freshmen point guards and health. Hopefully K is simply playing it safe. I am encouraged by the fact that he thinks Quinn will "definitely" be back by the start of practice. Seems ominous though. bummer

[roywhite]

I would say that is a fair assessment. I won't speculate on why the knee keeps acting up, but if needs more time to get to absolute 100% healed and healthy, I would rather he redshirt given the deep backcourt we will have. Use this year to get fully healthy and learn the system. I hate he is still having trouble though. Stinks that he can't play in China...

Get well soon Quinn! We are wishing Godspeed and healing on the knee!

Yeah, hang in there, Quinn. Take a page from Kyrie and keep a positive attitude, do what the doctors say, support your teammates, and learn from the coaches.

I doubt there are many places better for him medically than where he is now. We all knew of the reputation of the Duke Medical Center, but the coverage of Kyrie's rehab showed some amazing work from trainers and physical therapists as well.

[UrinalCake]

I saw the headline on the main page and thought people were trying to organize a "cookout" for watching the games. Doh. At least he'll still travel with the team, the trip should be a great bonding experience for our young team.

[watzone]

BDN Video is bringing the fire! We spoke with Quinn Cook late this afternoon. Why speculate when you can see and hear the details from Cook himself? http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/08/bdn-talks-with-quinn-cook-about-his-injury/ Enjoy. BTW, don't miss our practice videos from today.

[Lord Ash]

Already love Quinn. A perfect guy to wear the #2 now.

[ricks68]

Methinks we may need another point guard for backup for the year following this season along with the bigs we are recruiting. Thornton is a superb defender and both he and Cook are projected to be 4 year players, but if Cook goes down due to his knee, we may need another point at least as good as a healthy Cook to help out and get into the pipeline. The question is: Do we have enough projected schollys?

ricks

[Kedsy]

Methinks we may need another point guard for backup for the year following this season along with the bigs we are recruiting. Thornton is a superb defender and both he and Cook are projected to be 4 year players, but if Cook goes down due to his knee, we may need another point at least as good as a healthy Cook to help out and get into the pipeline. The question is: Do we have enough projected schollys?

ricks

How about Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon?

Even if you don't like those options, the answer to your question is probably no, we don't have enough scholarships to offer a second/third backup point guard, which presumably is one reason we parted ways with Rodney Purvis (although obviously he would have been a lot more than a backup PG).

Besides, even if Quinn misses most or all of this season (which I don't think anybody is saying at this point), he should still be ready to play next season, and having been through practices for a year (even if he's only observing), he should be ready for decent minutes. I think your fears are unfounded here.

[Huh?]

Methinks we may need another point guard for backup for the year following this season along with the bigs we are recruiting. Thornton is a superb defender and both he and Cook are projected to be 4 year players, but if Cook goes down due to his knee, we may need another point at least as good as a healthy Cook to help out and get into the pipeline. The question is: Do we have enough projected schollys?

ricks

Bronson Koenig

[Duvall]

Bronson Koenig

Koenig is a 2013 recruit, and would not be available until after the 2012-2013 season, which I assume is the one ricks68 is concerned about. (Duke will have plenty of scholarships after that year.)

[ricks68]

How about Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon?

Even if you don't like those options, the answer to your question is probably no, we don't have enough scholarships to offer a second/third backup point guard, which presumably is one reason we parted ways with Rodney Purvis (although obviously he would have been a lot more than a backup PG).

Besides, even if Quinn misses most or all of this season (which I don't think anybody is saying at this point), he should still be ready to play next season, and having been through practices for a year (even if he's only observing), he should be ready for decent minutes. I think your fears are unfounded here.

Good points. Since Coach K has said that Seth would be our starting point guard this year (if he had to make a choice based on what he has seen so far) at this point in the pre-season, and he would stay around for his last year of eligibility (Remember, he would probably have plenty of credits to graduate.) then I could see us as O.K. I am concerned, however, because if he has an opportunity to get to the NBA because of a stellar PG year, we could well lose him. Then, if Quinn's injury is worse than we know, we could be in trouble.

I think that many on the board may think that because we won in 2010 using Jon as our primary "PG", we do not need a "real" super PG as in the past. While that may well be true, I think our winning under those circumstances was actually an aberration from the norm. (Of course, Nolan sure looked pretty close to a "real" super PG from my perspective, however!)

Most coaches, including Coach K, would prefer a really good-if not super-PG instead of what we had to deal with in 2010. By the way, that's another reason why I think that Coach K is such a remarkable coach. His ability to adjust and come out a winner, I think is unmatched in college bball. I would just prefer that he had fewer adjustments to make so that our chances of winning it all are greater. Think Hurley, Williams, etc.:D

ricks

[Huh?]

Koenig is a 2013 recruit, and would not be available until after the 2012-2013 season, which I assume is the one ricks68 is concerned about. (Duke will have plenty of scholarships after that year.)

Apologies, got my years mixed.

[Kedsy]

Good points. Since Coach K has said that Seth would be our starting point guard this year (if he had to make a choice based on what he has seen so far) at this point in the pre-season, and he would stay around for his last year of eligibility (Remember, he would probably have plenty of credits to graduate.) then I could see us as O.K. I am concerned, however, because if he has an opportunity to get to the NBA because of a stellar PG year, we could well lose him. Then, if Quinn's injury is worse than we know, we could be in trouble.

I think that many on the board may think that because we won in 2010 using Jon as our primary "PG", we do not need a "real" super PG as in the past. While that may well be true, I think our winning under those circumstances was actually an aberration from the norm. (Of course, Nolan sure looked pretty close to a "real" super PG from my perspective, however!)

Most coaches, including Coach K, would prefer a really good-if not super-PG instead of what we had to deal with in 2010. By the way, that's another reason why I think that Coach K is such a remarkable coach. His ability to adjust and come out a winner, I think is unmatched in college bball. I would just prefer that he had fewer adjustments to make so that our chances of winning it all are greater. Think Hurley, Williams, etc.:D

ricks

While I agree with much of what you say here, I don't think any of it is a persuasive argument for burning a scholarship on a backup PG. Anyone who would fit the description of a "super PG" who could lead us to a championship would not, in this day and age, be coming in as a late-recruited backup.

Also, with limited scholarships you have to play the odds a little. In this case, the odds are strongly in favor of Seth returning as a fifth-year senior. Sure, it's possible he has a wild breakout this season and plays himself into a lottery pick, but with Austin around it seems unlikely to me that Seth could garner enough stats and/or attention to make up for the fact that he's much smaller than the vast majority of NBA players who have his skillset. At Seth's height you need to be super-quick or a super-ballhandler to make it in the NBA, and he really isn't either of those things yet. It sounds like he's getting closer but the likely outcome is he'll need that final year to prove it to the NBA scouts.

Similarly, based on what K is saying now, it sounds like the idea that Quinn's injury would last more than a year is also a low-probability outcome. And in order for us to need another PG, both of these low-probability events would have to occur. As well as the high probability event of Austin leaving after this season (i.e., no change to the one-and-done rule). And even if all that stuff happens, we'd still have Tyler and Rasheed to man the PG position, which while perhaps not ideal options both should be pretty solid.

If a 2012 top-5 "pure" PG presented himself as a Duke target, my guess is K would strongly consider going after him. But if Quinn is healthy it wouldn't really be fair to him. Either way, I doubt it would be worth it to bring in a "backup" who didn't expect to start from day one.

[ricks68]

While I agree with much of what you say here, I don't think any of it is a persuasive argument for burning a scholarship on a backup PG. Anyone who would fit the description of a "super PG" who could lead us to a championship would not, in this day and age, be coming in as a late-recruited backup.

Also, with limited scholarships you have to play the odds a little. In this case, the odds are strongly in favor of Seth returning as a fifth-year senior. Sure, it's possible he has a wild breakout this season and plays himself into a lottery pick, but with Austin around it seems unlikely to me that Seth could garner enough stats and/or attention to make up for the fact that he's much smaller than the vast majority of NBA players who have his skillset. At Seth's height you need to be super-quick or a super-ballhandler to make it in the NBA, and he really isn't either of those things yet. It sounds like he's getting closer but the likely outcome is he'll need that final year to prove it to the NBA scouts.

Similarly, based on what K is saying now, it sounds like the idea that Quinn's injury would last more than a year is also a low-probability outcome. And in order for us to need another PG, both of these low-probability events would have to occur. As well as the high probability event of Austin leaving after this season (i.e., no change to the one-and-done rule). And even if all that stuff happens, we'd still have Tyler and Rasheed to man the PG position, which while perhaps not ideal options both should be pretty solid.

If a 2012 top-5 "pure" PG presented himself as a Duke target, my guess is K would strongly consider going after him. But if Quinn is healthy it wouldn't really be fair to him. Either way, I doubt it would be worth it to bring in a "backup" who didn't expect to start from day one.

Very good answer to my question. Thanks.

ricks

[Duvall]

If a 2012 top-5 "pure" PG presented himself as a Duke target, my guess is K would strongly consider going after him. But if Quinn is healthy it wouldn't really be fair to him. Either way, I doubt it would be worth it to bring in a "backup" who didn't expect to start from day one.

It's also worth noting that there *isn't* a top-5 PG in the class of 2012, or even a top-25 PG. It's just not a good class for point guards.

[ACCBBallFan]

With Quinn sidelined until at least mid-Sept, he may not be back in game shape by the Blue-White game.



That would leave Duke with only 4 gfuys to share the PG/SG slots Seth, Austin, Dre and Tyler.


So they will likely be split up somehow rather than going with Seth-Austin-Dre- Ryan- Mason starting 5 versus the rest. With Quinn, that would have been possible.


Then Alex Murphy and Mike Gbinije pair off, Ryan and Josh/Miles and Mason vs. Miles/Marshall.


The alternative would be Thornton - Gbinije, Murphy, Hairston and Miles.


So with Todd Z, Duke is very deep among the bigs.


Get well soon Quinn, but don't rush it this time.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hi all,

Can someone please provide me with a summary of Quinn's history of knee issues? I know that he tore something between his junior and senior year and possibly again before the end of the year, but what is the full history? Sorry if this was covered elsewhere. Thanks in advanced!

-FDD

[Newton_14]

Hi all,

Can someone please provide me with a summary of Quinn's history of knee issues? I know that he tore something between his junior and senior year and possibly again before the end of the year, but what is the full history? Sorry if this was covered elsewhere. Thanks in advanced!

-FDD

See the below thread for discussion on the injury inclusive of links to articles.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?22041-Quinn-Cook-Commits-to-Duke!!

Edit: Link corrected now

[OldPhiKap]

Rest up, Quinn. Plenty of games ahead of you!!

We look forward to seeing your talents, in the fullness of time.

-- OPK

[stillcrazie]

Is anyone else worried that this is going to be an ongoing issue?

[ChillinDuke]

Is anyone else worried that this is going to be an ongoing issue?

While always possible, I'm not worried.

Undergoing knee surgeries, the muscles around the area (quad, hamstring, calf, hip, etc) can really atrophy after surgery/non-use. That's why rehab is so important to strengthen those muscles back to full capacity.

If I remember correctly, Quinn had a partial ACL tear (or was it a torn meniscus? or both?). The point is (and emphasized for a D1 athlete)...those muscles have to get back to full strength. From what it sounds like according to the articles/interviews posted in this thread, this is a muscle strength issue and not a knee issue. That distinction is quite significant, IMO, and not cause for long-term concern.

Until I read or hear otherwise, I personally remain very optimistic about Quinn's health and future as a Duke Blue Devil.

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

Is anyone else worried that this is going to be an ongoing issue?

Do you have a basis for believing it might be an ongoing issue?

[ACCBBallFan]

@JayJayESPN
Jason Jordan My man Quinn Cook (@QCook323) tells me he's "finally 100 percent after a year." In for a big year in Durham! #Duke


So sounds like the mid-Sept prognosis was correct.

With the top 6 probably averaging abour 25 minutes each, seems like Quinn and Tyler compete for about 25 total minutes at combo.

Alex/Mike compete for another 25 at SF/WF2, leaving only about 10 for Josh and Marshall to compete for with MP1-MP2-Ryan garnering 70-75 MPG total at PF/C.

[MartyClark]

@JayJayESPN
Jason Jordan My man Quinn Cook (@QCook323) tells me he's "finally 100 percent after a year." In for a big year in Durham! #Duke


So sounds like the mid-Sept prognosis was correct.

With the top 6 probably averaging abour 25 minutes each, seems like Quinn and Tyler compete for about 25 total minutes at combo.

Alex/Mike compete for another 25 at SF/WF2, leaving only about 10 for Josh and Marshall to compete for with MP1-MP2-Ryan garnering 70-75 MPG total at PF/C.

Good luck to this young man. I have not seen him play but speculate that he is a critical component, perhaps the wild card, for this year's team. If he is as good as billed, he can really help this team, especially on offense.

I'm ready for the season to start.

[loldevilz]

@JayJayESPN
Jason Jordan My man Quinn Cook (@QCook323) tells me he's "finally 100 percent after a year." In for a big year in Durham! #Duke


So sounds like the mid-Sept prognosis was correct.

With the top 6 probably averaging abour 25 minutes each, seems like Quinn and Tyler compete for about 25 total minutes at combo.

Alex/Mike compete for another 25 at SF/WF2, leaving only about 10 for Josh and Marshall to compete for with MP1-MP2-Ryan garnering 70-75 MPG total at PF/C.

No way Seth Curry (who Coach K said could be one of the elite point guards in the country) plays on 15 minutes there. I think only Thornton or Cook breaks the rotation and gets 10 minutes max.

[Devilsfan]

Holy Kabongo Batman!

[roywhite]

Sounds like really good news. I also like that QC will have another month before practice officially starts to get back in the swing of playing pick-up ball and mixing in with his teammates.

I look at Quinn as primarily a backup/insurance policy at PG this season, but he could play his way into a bigger role.
Delighted that he'll have that chance.

[ACCBBallFan]

No way Seth Curry (who Coach K said could be one of the elite point guards in the country) plays on 15 minutes there. I think only Thornton or Cook breaks the rotation and gets 10 minutes max.You are assuming Quinn and Tyler would only play PG while I said combo, not necessarily PG.

I see seven primary Duke lineups, among the almost infinite possibilities.

For sake of disciussion I will use the name Alex where it could be Alex or Mike as the SF bigger than Dre.

Three that feature Seth, Ryan and 1 Plumlee:
1. the starting lineup in China/Dubai while Mason rests.
2. with Austin and Alex in high risk high reward and also a third big set when Dre and Miles rests..
3. with Quinn and Dre in a tradiitional 3 guard shooters paradise when Austin and 1 Plumlee rests.

Ditto with two sets in a 2 Plums and Dre.Seth set:
4. Again Austin paired with Alex while Ryan and Seth/Dre gets a rest in 3 big set.
5. Both Dre/Seth and Tyler to shake things up while Austin and Ryan rest.

6, Stall ball/victory formation with Ryan in post, Alex @ WF2, and three of [Austin/Seth/Quinn/Dre] assuming Alex will be a more reliable FT shooter than either Plumlee, and that Austin can hit his fair share of FTs too, which was not the case for most of Duke in China/Dubai.

7. When Duke has a big lead: Marshall if he does not redshirt, Josh, Mike, Tyler and Quinn

One reply was that the top 6 play closer to 30 MPG than 25.

That would leave only 20 MPG to split across: Alex, Quinn, Tyler, Mike, Josh and possibly Marshall. Though on a less deep team they could each play 30 MPG, I assumed 25 max or more likely a total of 140-145 MPG for these 6 with 55-60 MPG shared by other 5 or 6:

25 MPG each - Austin, Seth and Ryan (75)

20-25 each - Miles, Mason and Dre (140-145)

split 25 MPG - Alex/Mike and Quinn/Tyler (190-195)

5+ - Josh (195-200)
5- Marshall (200)

Josh may be more capable than the 5-10 MPG he played last year (assuming more of Singler's PF minutes) but faces great competition form the 2 Plums and the much improved Ryan Kelly. Mike and Alex are both very promising as are Quinn and Tyler for different reasons, but only so many minutes to go around.

So yes, Seth will play as many minutes as anybody. Whether you consider Seth the PG or the SG in each of these pairings is up to you.

In any event, welcome back Quinn who will have some very positive impact this year and even more in future years.

[The Gordog]

You are assuming Quinn and Tyler would only play PG while I said combo, not necessarily PG.

I see seven primary Duke lineups, among the almost infinite possibilities.

For sake of disciussion I will use the name Alex where it could be Alex or Mike as the SF bigger than Dre.

Three that feature Seth, Ryan and 1 Plumlee:
1. the starting lineup in China/Dubai while Mason rests.
2. with Austin and Alex in high risk high reward and also a third big set when Dre and Miles rests..
3. with Quinn and Dre in a tradiitional 3 guard shooters paradise when Austin and 1 Plumlee rests.

Ditto with two sets in a 2 Plums and Dre.Seth set:
4. Again Austin paired with Alex while Ryan and Seth/Dre gets a rest in 3 big set.
5. Both Dre/Seth and Tyler to shake things up while Austin and Ryan rest.

6, Stall ball/victory formation with Ryan in post, Alex @ WF2, and three of [Austin/Seth/Quinn/Dre] assuming Alex will be a more reliable FT shooter than either Plumlee, and that Austin can hit his fair share of FTs too, which was not the case for most of Duke in China/Dubai.

7. When Duke has a big lead: Marshall if he does not redshirt, Josh, Mike, Tyler and Quinn

One reply was that the top 6 play closer to 30 MPG than 25.

That would leave only 20 MPG to split across: Alex, Quinn, Tyler, Mike, Josh and possibly Marshall. Though on a less deep team they could each play 30 MPG, I assumed 25 max or more likely a total of 140-145 MPG for these 6 with 55-60 MPG shared by other 5 or 6:

25 MPG each - Austin, Seth and Ryan (75)

20-25 each - Miles, Mason and Dre (140-145)

split 25 MPG - Alex/Mike and Quinn/Tyler (190-195)

5+ - Josh (195-200)
5- Marshall (200)

Josh may be more capable than the 5-10 MPG he played last year (assuming more of Singler's PF minutes) but faces great competition form the 2 Plums and the much improved Ryan Kelly. Mike and Alex are both very promising as are Quinn and Tyler for different reasons, but only so many minutes to go around.

So yes, Seth will play as many minutes as anybody. Whether you consider Seth the PG or the SG in each of these pairings is up to you.

In any event, welcome back Quinn who will have some very positive impact this year and even more in future years.

Some good points here; however I take issue with the idea of Seth only playing 25 MPG. Perhaps your minutes predictions will be true for the 4 games in December... I have been following Duke basketball since 1983 and can not remember a time when our best guard played less than 30 MPG in all that time. Coach has said he is our point guard, so I believe he will play about 33 MPG. Also, you have Ryan at 25 but Miles and Mason at 20-25. Unless foul problems severely limit them I see them at 25 MPG each. I don't see Josh or Marshall playing much, sorry to say.

[DukieInBrasil]

You are assuming Quinn and Tyler would only play PG while I said combo, not necessarily PG.


One reply was that the top 6 play closer to 30 MPG than 25.

That would leave only 20 MPG to split across: Alex, Quinn, Tyler, Mike, Josh and possibly Marshall. Though on a less deep team they could each play 30 MPG, I assumed 25 max or more likely a total of 140-145 MPG for these 6 with 55-60 MPG shared by other 5 or 6:

25 MPG each - Austin, Seth and Ryan (75)

20-25 each - Miles, Mason and Dre (140-145)

split 25 MPG - Alex/Mike and Quinn/Tyler (190-195)

5+ - Josh (195-200)
5- Marshall (200)

Josh may be more capable than the 5-10 MPG he played last year (assuming more of Singler's PF minutes) but faces great competition form the 2 Plums and the much improved Ryan Kelly. Mike and Alex are both very promising as are Quinn and Tyler for different reasons, but only so many minutes to go around.

So yes, Seth will play as many minutes as anybody. Whether you consider Seth the PG or the SG in each of these pairings is up to you.

In any event, welcome back Quinn who will have some very positive impact this year and even more in future years.

I think you are probably overestimating the minutes those guys will get, it's probably safer to say that between the 4 of them they'll get 25mpg for all games played.
I also think Seth will play more than 30 minutes, and 25 mpg is probably the low end for MP I@II.

[duke blue brewcrew]

Some good points here; however I take issue with the idea of Seth only playing 25 MPG. Perhaps your minutes predictions will be true for the 4 games in December... I have been following Duke basketball since 1983 and can not remember a time when our best guard played less than 30 MPG in all that time. Coach has said he is our point guard, so I believe he will play about 33 MPG. Also, you have Ryan at 25 but Miles and Mason at 20-25. Unless foul problems severely limit them I see them at 25 MPG each. I don't see Josh or Marshall playing much, sorry to say.

I couldn't agree more. I would also add that unless AR proves that he can play consistent, better team defense, make the hustle plays that don't show up in the stats and not take plays off when something doesn't go his way...then he will not be averaging the predicted 25 MPG...it could be a lot closer to 15.

[NSDukeFan]

I couldn't agree more. I would also add that unless AR proves that he can play consistent, better team defense, make the hustle plays that don't show up in the stats and not take plays off when something doesn't go his way...then he will not be averaging the predicted 25 MPG...it could be a lot closer to 15.

I believe that I have about as good a chance at averaging 15 mpg at Duke this year as Austin has of averaging as little as 15 mpg. I agree that he will improve his team defense and perhaps his body language, but I doubt very much that Austin will average fewer than 25 minutes per game.

[CDu]

25 MPG each - Austin, Seth and Ryan (75)

20-25 each - Miles, Mason and Dre (140-145)

split 25 MPG - Alex/Mike and Quinn/Tyler (190-195)

5+ - Josh (195-200)
5- Marshall (200)

I hate to quibble over a preseason estimate of mpg (okay, I love doing it), but I disagree here. I think you're about 10 mpg low on the Rivers/Curry/Kelly combo, and I think those 10 will come from Rivers and Curry. I think Curry will average 30+ mpg, and I wouldn't be surprised if Rivers did as well. And I'd expect 25+ mpg from Dawkins. So I think we'll be at about 150-160 mpg for the top six guys, not 140-145.

That leaves only 40-50 mpg for the reserves. I don't see both Hairston and Marshall averaging 5 mpg. I'd expect to see Hairston get 5-10 mpg and Marshall to play very sparingly (~2-3mpg). That leaves about 30-40 mpg for the quartet of Cook, Gbinije, Murphy, and Thornton.

[sagegrouse]

@JayJayESPN
Jason Jordan My man Quinn Cook (@QCook323) tells me he's "finally 100 percent after a year." In for a big year in Durham! #Duke


So sounds like the mid-Sept prognosis was correct.



I am happy to hear that Quin MIGHT be ready to play, but this is a pretty slender piece of intelligence on which to launch a festival of euphoria. Do we have other confirming evidence. Maybe something from the coaching staff?

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

Though on a less deep team they could each play 30 MPG, I assumed 25 max or more likely a total of 140-145 MPG for these 6 with 55-60 MPG shared by other 5 or 6...

I understand this is a very deep team, but I think your 25 max assumption is unrealistic, given Coach K's history.

Here is a table showing how many Duke players averaged 30 or more minutes and 28 or more minutes (rounding to the nearest minute, e.g., 29.7 = 30) during Coach K's tenure at Duke:



Year # of players 30 or more mpg # of players 28 or more mpg
---- --------------------------- ---------------------------
2011 2 2
2010 3 3
2009 3 3
2008 1 4
2007 4 4
2006 4 4
2005 3 3
2004 4 4
2003 3 4
2002 3 5
2001 2 5
2000 3 4
1999 2 4
1998 0 1
1997 2 2
1996 4 4
1995 2 3
1994 4 4
1993 3 4
1992 5 5
1991 2 2
1990 3 3
1989 3 3
1988 2 4
1987 2 3
1986 3 4
1985 3 3
1984 3 4
1983 1 2
1982 3 3
1981 4 4


So, in all but three of Coach K's 31 seasons, we have had 2 or more players who played 30 or more minutes. In all but five seasons we have had 3 or more players who played 28 or more minutes. But not even on the deepest team in Coach K's Duke career (1997-98) did the top minute-getter max out at 25 mpg (top minute-getter in 1997-98 played 29 mpg).

Historically speaking, the odds are overwhelming that two players this season will play at least 30 mpg and that a third player will play 28 mpg or more. You might as well work that in to your otherwise reasonable and well-thought out analysis.

[dcar1985]

I am happy to hear that Quin MIGHT be ready to play, but this is a pretty slender piece of intelligence on which to launch a festival of euphoria. Do we have other confirming evidence. Maybe something from the coaching staff?

sagegrouse

Jason Jordan is legit....plus this quote is coming from Quinn himself, I'll post the link later...but who better to say whether he's 100% or not

[Kedsy]

I hate to quibble over a preseason estimate of mpg (okay, I love doing it), but I disagree here. I think you're about 10 mpg low on the Rivers/Curry/Kelly combo, and I think those 10 will come from Rivers and Curry. I think Curry will average 30+ mpg, and I wouldn't be surprised if Rivers did as well. And I'd expect 25+ mpg from Dawkins. So I think we'll be at about 150-160 mpg for the top six guys, not 140-145.

That leaves only 40-50 mpg for the reserves. I don't see both Hairston and Marshall averaging 5 mpg. I'd expect to see Hairston get 5-10 mpg and Marshall to play very sparingly (~2-3mpg). That leaves about 30-40 mpg for the quartet of Cook, Gbinije, Murphy, and Thornton.

I mostly agree with this. Although personally I doubt the top six will dip much below 160 mpg. I'll be very surprised if that number gets as low as 150. Assuming two other guys get 10 to 15 mpg each (my guess is Tyler and Alex, although Quinn could conceivably fight Tyler for the backup PG minutes), it leaves only about 15 minutes total for the 9th through 12th men in the rotation.

I predict we're going to hear an awful lot of "how come Quinn doesn't play more" and "how come Silent G doesn't play more" on the Board this season.

[CDu]

I mostly agree with this. Although personally I doubt the top six will dip much below 160 mpg. I'll be very surprised if that number gets as low as 150. Assuming two other guys get 10 to 15 mpg each (my guess is Tyler and Alex, although Quinn could conceivably fight Tyler for the backup PG minutes), it leaves only about 15 minutes total for the 9th through 12th men in the rotation.

I predict we're going to hear an awful lot of "how come Quinn doesn't play more" and "how come Silent G doesn't play more" on the Board this season.

Yeah, I meant to say "at least" when I said "at about" 150-160 mpg. That 150 was sort of my absolute low-end expectation, and I too would be surprised by that low an average.

I agree that the 9th through 12th guys are going to see very limited PT this year. That's no different from what Coach K has always done. There will probably be 2-3 players who fit the "why doesn't player X play more" bill this year (I'll avoid speculating which ones because I think that's been frowned upon in the past). We just don't go more than 8-9 deep, even when we have more than 8-9 players capable.

[ACCBBallFan]

and to think I intentionally kept these guys at 25 rather than 30 and 20-25 rather than 25 to keep the total from being 165, and dealing with all the retorts on 35 MPG total for Alex and Quinn and Tyler and Mike and Josh.

Fouls may be a reason why the Plumlees do not average 25 each, but rather 45 MPG total, but Kelly could very well play 30 leaving only 5 for Josh.

Whatever their limited minutes may be, I expect most from Alex, then Quinn, Tyler, Mike and Josh based not only on skill set but also somewhat on supply and demand at SF besides Dre and at PG besides Seth, versus very limited minutes available at C/PF.

Quinn brings the backup PG ability and is much better on Offense than Tyler as long as his defense is up to par. The good news is depending on the need, coach K will always have an answer on his bench.

[SilkyJ]

I am happy to hear that Quin MIGHT be ready to play, but this is a pretty slender piece of intelligence on which to launch a festival of euphoria. Do we have other confirming evidence. Maybe something from the coaching staff?

sagegrouse


Jason Jordan is legit....plus this quote is coming from Quinn himself, I'll post the link later...but who better to say whether he's 100% or not

I hear what you are saying, dcar, but sage is kinda right here. Quinn ISN'T the guy to say whether he's 100% or not. He's not a part of one of the best training staffs in the world.

The whole point is that Quinn came back too soon b/c he and probably his HS coaching/training staff rushed it a bit. It was the A+ Duke staff that shut him down, so until we hear it from them I wouldn't fully count anything. Hopefully we'll get an update from K in his next presser, though I have no idea when that might be...

[sagegrouse]

The whole point is that Quinn came back too soon b/c he and probably his HS coaching/training staff rushed it a bit. It was the A+ Duke staff that shut him down, so until we hear it from them I wouldn't fully count anything. Hopefully we'll get an update from K in his next presser, though I have no idea when that might be...

Thanks for making the point, SilkyJ. My understanding is that the Oak Hill training staff plus the vaunted (Hah!) tertiary-care medical facilities in Mouth of Wilson, VA didn't exactly provide the best diagnosis and care for Quin. It looks from the map that the school is about 90 miles from the nearest significant medical center (Blacksburg or Winston-Salem), although I am certainly ignorant of the locale.

sagegrouse