Decommittments

[johnb]

The front page links to the following article in SI:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/01/commitment.trends/2.html
In it, Winn talks at length about the epidemic of transfers and decommittments, both in high and college. From my read, there's some effort towards balance, but he seems most impressed by the Iowa player from Iowa City who had parents who played at Iowa and who, himself, stayed at Iowa despite a coaching change. That's all well and good, but I wouldn't lay too much blame on the kids. I'd emphasize to a greater extent several issues that he either alluded to minimally or left out.

Obvious are very early commitments, coaching/personnel changes, a decline in the team's fortunes (the latter seems to have contributed to the Rivers' decommittment from Florida), and NCAA penalties. I'd also liked to have read some discussion of how colleges seem to recruit based on talent rather than fit. It's not just an issue of recruiting and offering 4 small forwards but also the issue of rural schools targeting opposite-coast urban kids and vice versa. Sure, AAU hangers-on may contribute to nomadic lack of allegiance, but there's more--and that article didn't do the subject as much justice as it deserves. Further, I'm not sure that such changes are inevitably a bad thing. 5 high schools in 4 years is probably suboptimal, but a couple of transfers here and there may be completely fine

[Newton_14]

I read this last night. Very interesting article that covered everything from changing high schools, early commits/de-commits, and transfers. I knew transfer rate was high, but it is a bit higher than I thought. The data definitely showed a correlation between guys bouncing around numerous High Schools being more likely to transfer once in college. Not surprising was the data showing guys who commit really early (8th/9th/10th Grade) decommit at a higher rate than those who commit later in their High School career. They looked at 5 straight Top-100 Recruit Classes for the data.

Here is the key data points from the article.

39.2 percent of top-100 recruits attended multiple high schools

• The multiple-high school trend rose to 47 percent in the Class of 2011, suggesting it could break 50 percent later this decade

• Top-100 players who attended multiple high schools went on to decommit from colleges at nearly twice the rate of their peers

• 16.3 percent of top-100 recruits decommitted from colleges

• 47.8 percent of early-committing (3-4 years out) top-100 prospects later decommitted

• 37.4 percent of decommitments can be attributed to school factors, such as coaching changes or NCAA penalties

• 24.8 percent of top-100 recruits transfer, a rate that's nearly 2.5 times the D-I average

• Top-100 players who decommit are nearly 50 percent more likely than their peers to transfer once they're in college