PG next year

[nmduke2001]

I would guess that Cook or Seth are the favorites for the starting PG job but Nolan and Kyle seem to think that is going to be Tyler.

http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/30152831?source=rss_blogs_NCAAB

[Kedsy]

I would guess that Cook or Seth are the favorites for the starting PG job but Nolan and Kyle seem to think that is going to be Tyler.

http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/30152831?source=rss_blogs_NCAAB

If that's the way it works out, I'll be surprised. I expect Andre to come out as a star, or at least a solid 25+ minute starter, and the same for Seth. I think there are sizable roles available for both Tyler and Quinn, but not as starters.

Then again, Nolan and Kyle clearly have a lot more knowledge of the situation than I do, so now I'm not sure what to think.

[OldPhiKap]

Tyler is a tough defender and seems to make solid decisions with the ball. With the scoring guards and bigs we have, that seems to be the thing we need. I think Tyler will do a great job when he is on the floor (whether starting or not), and will bring a much more traditional look to our offense.

Sounds like Kyle and Nolan both enjoyed playing with him as well, which is very telling.

The point is about three things, basically, at Duke: (!) pressure defense; (2) efficient distribution; and (3) projecting the attitude the coach wants on the floor. Sounds like Tyler is a good candidate on all three counts.

[nmduke2001]

I expect Andre to come out as a star, or at least a solid 25+ minute starter, and the same for Seth

I'm glad that you mentioned this. I expect Andre to be the leading scorer next year. I don't think that he has gotten enough attention this offseason. Just my opinion (and hope).

[sagegrouse]

While K loves having a really good point guard, it isn't a necessity. So I would focus more on who is on the court and then figure out what role the players play.

In the backcourt, I would write in Austin Rivers. I would be astounded if he were not a starter. Seth Curry started a majority of the games last year (19 of 37), and this year Duke is replacing an All-American guard (Nolan). Why wouldn't he continue to start? I think both Austin and Seth can be distributors of the ball, if not pure point guards.

Assuming that two of Miles, Mason and Ryan are starting in the front court, that leaves several options:


Andre Dawkins, with either Andre or Austin guarding the wing player on the opponents team. K used Andre to spell Kyle in guarding H. Barnes last year, so I think he has some confidence in Dre's defense. I expect a big year out of Andre, starting or not.

Tyler Thornton or Quin Cook inserted as a PG, with Austin guarding the opposing wing.

Ryan Kelly (or maybe Josh Hairston) at the wing, with MP1 and MP2 starting inside. Hmmm.... Interesting possibility, but I doubt it.

Michael Gbinije, as the only pure wing player on the team, has a fabulous pre-season and enters the starting lineup.


I think these four options are in order of probability, but -- heck -- not only has practice not yet started, but the pre-season international trip and its ten practice sessions haven't either. I would look carefully at the experience in China and Dubai and update projections accordingly.

sagegrouse

[CDu]

Assuming that two of Miles, Mason and Ryan are starting in the front court, that leaves several options:


Andre Dawkins, with either Andre or Austin guarding the wing player on the opponents team. K used Andre to spell Kyle in guarding H. Barnes last year, so I think he has some confidence in Dre's defense. I expect a big year out of Andre, starting or not.

Tyler Thornton or Quin Cook inserted as a PG, with Austin guarding the opposing wing.

Ryan Kelly (or maybe Josh Hairston) at the wing, with MP1 and MP2 starting inside. Hmmm.... Interesting possibility, but I doubt it.

Michael Gbinije, as the only pure wing player on the team, has a fabulous pre-season and enters the starting lineup.


I think these four options are in order of probability, but -- heck -- not only has practice not yet started, but the pre-season international trip and its ten practice sessions haven't either. I would look carefully at the experience in China and Dubai and update projections accordingly.

sagegrouse

1. I think this is the most likely option
2. I think this is less likely, but possible. We'd be really small on the perimeter.
3. I think this is a very poor idea. Kelly isn't quick enough to play the perimeter, and Hairston hasn't shown any of the skill set to do so. With the team not having a true PG, we're going to want to err on the side of having more guys capable of creating off the dribble rather than fewer.
4. I think you're misusing the term "wing" when you really mean "SF." A wing is any perimeter player who isn't primarily a ballhandler. Thus, he plays on the wing. Dawkins is also a natural wing. Curry and Thornton spent most of their time on the wing last year when Irving was healthy. Moving past that, I think/hope Gbinije is more likely to start at the 3 than Kelly or Hairston.

[dukelifer]

Tyler is a tough defender and seems to make solid decisions with the ball. With the scoring guards and bigs we have, that seems to be the thing we need. I think Tyler will do a great job when he is on the floor (whether starting or not), and will bring a much more traditional look to our offense.

Sounds like Kyle and Nolan both enjoyed playing with him as well, which is very telling.

The point is about three things, basically, at Duke: (!) pressure defense; (2) efficient distribution; and (3) projecting the attitude the coach wants on the floor. Sounds like Tyler is a good candidate on all three counts.

I suspect that Nolan and Kyle both know that D will be the key for next year's team and Tyler may be the best defender left on the team -not sure that is saying a lot. There are lots of scorers but without solid and tenacious D, next year's Duke team will be challenged a lot.

[ncexnyc]

I've voiced my opinion before that a lot of people were overlooking Tyler's ability and that I felt he was in position to be our starting PG for this upcoming season. He knows the system and he plays defense and those are always key factors for any kid to get playing time at Duke.
Unfortunately these positive comments from Kyle and Nolan regarding Tyler have me worried about the rest of the returning players. Are they concerned that the returning players aren't up to the task of being vocal leaders and providing the necessary toughness a Duke team needs?

[ScreechTDX1847]

Unfortunately these positive comments from Kyle and Nolan regarding Tyler have me worried about the rest of the returning players. Are they concerned that the returning players aren't up to the task of being vocal leaders and providing the necessary toughness a Duke team needs?

This is a big assumption based on Kyle and Nolan's comments. Perhpas, this is simply meant to spur conversation but I don't see their comments painting a negative picture of anyone else on the team.

[OldSchool]

I can see Tyler starting next year, based on his defense and decision-making. Or maybe Seth starts in that spot.

I expect the ball to be in AR's hands A LOT next year. To a lot of the college-level defenders next year, it's going to seem like going up against Kobe. AR will have the ball and the offense will consist a lot of AR breaking his man down and getting to the rim, getting to the line, or kicking out if he is doubled or they pack the post. I think we'll see isolations with a side cleared out for AR, and some AR jump shots off motion screens. I don't think we'll see as much high pick & roll or pick & pop as saw this year with Nolan & MP2 or Nolan & Kyle.

When AR is on the floor, we need good shooters to space the floor for kickouts from AR.

The starting five might be AR - Tyler - Andre - Ryan - Plumlee. Or AR- Seth - Andre - Ryan - Plumlee.

One strategy might be to bring Seth in with the second unit together with Quin to provide offense when AR is resting. Seth has quick hands and can get steals, but I think Tyler is stronger at stopping dribble penetration.

If Andre goes into a slump or doesn't hold his end up defensively we could see Tyler - Seth - AR at the 1-3 positions. Otherwise, I expect Andre to start next year at the 3.

[Kedsy]

One strategy might be to bring Seth in with the second unit together with Quin to provide offense when AR is resting.

I agree with most of what you say, although I don't think there's much of a chance that Seth doesn't start. As you say, if the ball primarily goes through Austin, the best match will be to have strong outside shooters around him, and that's Andre and Seth.

The one thing I disagree with is the above. I expect Austin to play 30+ minutes (and maybe 35+). The "second unit" won't get enough minutes to justify not starting Seth in order for him to lead that unit.

[OldSchool]

I agree with most of what you say, although I don't think there's much of a chance that Seth doesn't start. As you say, if the ball primarily goes through Austin, the best match will be to have strong outside shooters around him, and that's Andre and Seth.

The one thing I disagree with is the above. I expect Austin to play 30+ minutes (and maybe 35+). The "second unit" won't get enough minutes to justify not starting Seth in order for him to lead that unit.

Thinking some more, you're probably right about Seth starting. However, I could see Tyler starting some games and getting heavy minutes in other games in order to set the tone defensively or try to shut down a particular player. Also, I think Ryan's outside shooting could be very valuable if AR kicks out effectively. One of the things I expect AR to learn during the year is passing out of the double team without making turnovers and making the best decision with his passes.

It will be interesting to see how AR's minutes go. K tends to play his superstars heavy minutes. However, AR's style of offense and the defensive effort that will be expected of him will take a lot of energy. I can see him playing 35+ when going up against UNC or another top team but it remains to be seen how much he averages over the season, especially if the guys behind him can be effective when he is on the bench.

[Kedsy]

Thinking some more, you're probably right about Seth starting. However, I could see Tyler starting some games and getting heavy minutes in other games in order to set the tone defensively or try to shut down a particular player. Also, I think Ryan's outside shooting could be very valuable if AR kicks out effectively. One of the things I expect AR to learn during the year is passing out of the double team without making turnovers and making the best decision with his passes.

It will be interesting to see how AR's minutes go. K tends to play his superstars heavy minutes. However, AR's style of offense and the defensive effort that will be expected of him will take a lot of energy. I can see him playing 35+ when going up against UNC or another top team but it remains to be seen how much he averages over the season, especially if the guys behind him can be effective when he is on the bench.

Agreed. Personally, I would enjoy it more if we had a lot of guys getting good minutes rather than just a few guys getting tons of minutes. And we should have the quality depth to pull that off if K wants to. It remains to be seen whether he will actually go with that sort of plan or not.

[ncexnyc]

This is a big assumption based on Kyle and Nolan's comments. Perhpas, this is simply meant to spur conversation but I don't see their comments painting a negative picture of anyone else on the team.
I could be wrong, but it seems the vast majority of board members believe the starting PG job is Seth's. So when Kyle and Nolan state that the job will be Tyler's based on his defense and toughness that makes me wonder.
I realize this isn't a done deal and this is coming from two former players, but these are some pretty informed individuals who saw the returning players day in and day out. Lance Thomas wasn't an offensive wiz, but he got the starters job based on being a hard nosed defender and one tough cookie.
I'm really not sure this is painting anyone else in a negative light. Each player brings something different to the game. If these traits displayed by Tyler get him a starting gig then I'll be happy with that.

[COYS]

I could be wrong, but it seems the vast majority of board members believe the starting PG job is Seth's. So when Kyle and Nolan state that the job will be Tyler's based on his defense and toughness that makes me wonder.
I realize this isn't a done deal and this is coming from two former players, but these are some pretty informed individuals who saw the returning players day in and day out. Lance Thomas wasn't an offensive wiz, but he got the starters job based on being a hard nosed defender and one tough cookie.
I'm really not sure this is painting anyone else in a negative light. Each player brings something different to the game. If these traits displayed by Tyler get him a starting gig then I'll be happy with that.

If Nolan and Kyle are right and Tyler is headed toward a starting position, that is only a good thing for Duke and Tyler because even if Seth doesn't improve his performance from last year but simply replicates it in more minutes it means we will have 57th best offensive rating in the entire nation (http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke) coming off the bench. Seth may not be the fastest guy in the world, either, but he has really quick hands (see his steals rate) and did a good job competing on defense, although I recognize that he only guarded the point in spurts and never really did it for an extended period. At any rate, I expect big things out of Seth, starter or not.

[bdeviled11]

A healthy Q. Cook may challenge him, but Thornton really reminds me of Wojo. Point Guard seems like it is going to be filled by committee which can be successful.

[jv001]

Someone is going to have to step up and play good on the ball defense. Coach K is not going to play zone. Of our returning players, Tyler was probably our best on the ball defender. Seth showed great hands and was good at digging the ball out of the inside players hands. He also played the passing lanes very well. I have no idea how good Quinn and Austin play on the ball defense so picking a starting pg or starting lineup is pretty much impossible, but it's fun to speculate. I guess many questions will be answered by tipoff to the 2011-2012 season. Glad we get an early start. GoDuke!

[ACCBBallFan]

I agree with most of what you say, although I don't think there's much of a chance that Seth doesn't start. As you say, if the ball primarily goes through Austin, the best match will be to have strong outside shooters around him, and that's Andre and Seth.

The one thing I disagree with is the above. I expect Austin to play 30+ minutes (and maybe 35+). The "second unit" won't get enough minutes to justify not starting Seth in order for him to lead that unit.Agreed, and to carry your thought to the front court, Kelly at PF/WF2 with the elder 2 Plumlees alternating at center.

Their strengths and weaknesses are too similar to have them both start, and clog the middle too much for Austin to penetrate. One or the other could be an often recipient of alley oops.

The more mobile big for the opponents has to come out to guard Kelly leaving the slower one to have to commit to fouling Austin or leaving a Plumlee open for a dunk.

Besides being a streaky shooter, Austin has the ability to draw fouls both on his wing defender and on the big who has to pcik him up when he beats his man with that jab step fake and quick blow by, or beats his wing defender with a fall back 3.

Semantics but I could classify Dre as the SG and Austin as the WF/wing defender, since he is a tad taller, seems to have a better propensity to rebound on both ends, and takes it to the hoop more consitently.

Dre did show an improved floater and drive in spurts last year rather than merely the spot up shooter he was an a frosh.

What the Austin and 3 shooters and a Plumlee may lack on defensive end is more than made up for with offensive prowess.

[Scorp4me]

Agreed. Personally, I would enjoy it more if we had a lot of guys getting good minutes rather than just a few guys getting tons of minutes. And we should have the quality depth to pull that off if K wants to. It remains to be seen whether he will actually go with that sort of plan or not.

I don't have the problem with K playing superstars superstar minutes that some have around here. But outside of AR it doesn't look like we'll have that problem. So it should be a year where everyone is happy seeing the minutes spread around.

Assuming that starting Kelly and the Plumlees together is not the best option, and I agree it isn't. If Tyler starts with AR, couldn't Seth still start? I mean if not you're looking at Dawkins or Gbinije starting over him and I just don't see that happening. Things change but I think early on Tyler and Dawkins and maybe Gbinije are fighting for that last spot. Then K will figure out their places after that putting the best 5 on the floor, which this year should be close. That can be good and bad.

[Saratoga2]

Agreed, and to carry your thought to the front court, Kelly at PF/WF2 with the elder 2 Plumlees alternating at center.

Besides being a streaky shooter, Austin has the ability to draw fouls both on his wing defender and on the big who has to pcik him up when he beats his man with that jab step fake and quick blow by, or beats his wing defender with a fall back 3.

Semantics but I could classify Dre as the SG and Austin as the WF/wing defender, since he is a tad taller, seems to have a better propensity to rebound on both ends, and takes it to the hoop more consitently.

Dre did show an improved floater and drive in spurts last year rather than merely the spot up shooter he was an a frosh.

What the Austin and 3 shooters and a Plumlee may lack on defensive end is more than made up for with offensive prowess.

Austin is a better ball handler and has the ability to get by people. I think he is actually a tad shorter and lighter than Andre despite the published heights. To my mind, he is a better fit at the SG position. He has the ability to play a lot of minutes so no more than 10 minutes of SG will be open for others.

Andre has demonstrated that he can defend, even a large wing and I expect his handle has improved. In addition, I thought he deferred to Nolan and Kyle too much last year. I think it is fairly common for younger players to do that. This year, I expect him to be more assertive. He could play some time at the wing and possibly some time at the SG.

We have three guys who potentially can play the point and the starting role may change on that position throughout the year. In addition, Seth can play the SG, especially against opponents with smaller SG's. We should not forget there are two new guys coming in who are also strong candidates for the wing position.

There will be a great deal of competition for PT for all positions this coming season.

[Kedsy]

If Tyler starts with AR, couldn't Seth still start?

Yes, in theory, but that would make us verrrry small, giving up height and/or weight at two or in many cases three positions. If the primary reason to start Tyler is his stellar defense, it makes a lot less sense if putting him in the lineup causes so many defensive mismatches.

Still, anything's possible at this point.

[Class of '94]

Austin is a better ball handler and has the ability to get by people. I think he is actually a tad shorter and lighter than Andre despite the published heights. To my mind, he is a better fit at the SG position. He has the ability to play a lot of minutes so no more than 10 minutes of SG will be open for others.

Andre has demonstrated that he can defend, even a large wing and I expect his handle has improved. In addition, I thought he deferred to Nolan and Kyle too much last year. I think it is fairly common for younger players to do that. This year, I expect him to be more assertive. He could play some time at the wing and possibly some time at the SG.

We have three guys who potentially can play the point and the starting role may change on that position throughout the year. In addition, Seth can play the SG, especially against opponents with smaller SG's. We should not forget there are two new guys coming in who are also strong candidates for the wing position.

There will be a great deal of competition for PT for all positions this coming season.

I'm not trying to derail this thread but I stilll question how much of an impact Dre will have on the team next year and the PG situation. I just wonder if the impact of his sister's death his freshman year has had a lasting detrimental affect on his game from a mental and desire to improve perspective. His game understandably suffered his freshman year after her death and while he showed promise and the potential to be an important part of the team at the beginning of last season, he clearly underperformed for most of last season; and the coaches, as we all know,were regularly on him. He just simply hasn't been the same player IMO since the beginning of his freshman year. I think solidifying the PG situation for next year will have a direct effect (positive or negative) on Dre's success next year.

[NSDukeFan]

Someone is going to have to step up and play good on the ball defense. Coach K is not going to play zone. Of our returning players, Tyler was probably our best on the ball defender. Seth showed great hands and was good at digging the ball out of the inside players hands. He also played the passing lanes very well. I have no idea how good Quinn and Austin play on the ball defense so picking a starting pg or starting lineup is pretty much impossible, but it's fun to speculate. I guess many questions will be answered by tipoff to the 2011-2012 season. Glad we get an early start. GoDuke!

I am very happy with the intensity that Thornton brought last year and expect he will make solid contributions this year as well, and will likely surprise me again with how much and how well he plays. I am not sure that he is the best returning on the ball defender, however. I don't think he is any better defending quick players than Seth is, except that Seth has quicker hands in my opinion. I expect when you say on the ball defender, you mean on point guards, because, otherwise I don't know if Tyler is any better defending on the ball vs. point guards than Andre vs. wings, or Mason, Miles or Ryan vs. their match ups. I agree with Saratoga that there will be a lot of competition for minutes next year and again this year will put my hat in the bigger line up team, as I expect two of Miles, Mason and Ryan to be starting and on the floor most of the time for defensive reasons.

[ACCBBallFan]

Austin is a better ball handler and has the ability to get by people. I think he is actually a tad shorter and lighter than Andre despite the published heights. To my mind, he is a better fit at the SG position. He has the ability to play a lot of minutes so no more than 10 minutes of SG will be open for others.

Andre has demonstrated that he can defend, even a large wing and I expect his handle has improved. In addition, I thought he deferred to Nolan and Kyle too much last year. I think it is fairly common for younger players to do that. This year, I expect him to be more assertive. He could play some time at the wing and possibly some time at the SG.

We have three guys who potentially can play the point and the starting role may change on that position throughout the year. In addition, Seth can play the SG, especially against opponents with smaller SG's. We should not forget there are two new guys coming in who are also strong candidates for the wing position.

There will be a great deal of competition for PT for all positions this coming season.I admit it is a minor point but labelling Austin as the WF instead of the SG and having him guard the opposing SF means that when Austin does take it to the hoop (more often than Dre who was at CP3 camp working on his handle BTW) that there will still be a PG Curry and a SG Dawkins back to prevent guys from leaking out.

[MartyClark]

I would guess that Cook or Seth are the favorites for the starting PG job but Nolan and Kyle seem to think that is going to be Tyler.

http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/30152831?source=rss_blogs_NCAAB

Based on what we have seen, I don't think Andre or Seth are the answer at point. I don't think either of them have the quickness or the handle to run the offense against really good teams.

I think the job falls to Thornton and Cook, in some combination. I think that our ultimate success depends on how well these guys can do running the offense.

I could be wrong, I hope I am. I don't believe Seth or Andre are able to carry the load at the point.

[UrinalCake]

[Andre] just simply hasn't been the same player IMO since the beginning of his freshman year.

I disagree. I think both years he started out the season great, shooting around 50% heading into ACC play. But once the quality of competition increased he tailed off. In 2010 he did hit those big shots against Baylor, plus that monster jam in the ACC Tournament final, so he's had his moments. I think that in general he's been too one-dimensional and needs to develop other areas of his game besides shooting the 3. There's a lot of optimism that this year he'll be able to put it all together, so we'll see!

[Acymetric]

I disagree. I think both years he started out the season great, shooting around 50% heading into ACC play. But once the quality of competition increased he tailed off. In 2010 he did hit those big shots against Baylor, plus that monster jam in the ACC Tournament final, so he's had his moments. I think that in general he's been too one-dimensional and needs to develop other areas of his game besides shooting the 3. There's a lot of optimism that this year he'll be able to put it all together, so we'll see!

That dunk was beautiful. He needs to watch that tape over and over to remind himself how that felt. Do it again, man!

[Kedsy]

Based on what we have seen, I don't think Andre or Seth are the answer at point. I don't think either of them have the quickness or the handle to run the offense against really good teams.

I think the job falls to Thornton and Cook, in some combination. I think that our ultimate success depends on how well these guys can do running the offense.

I could be wrong, I hope I am. I don't believe Seth or Andre are able to carry the load at the point.

Nobody thinks Andre is going to run the point. Where did you get that idea? The question is whether we need a traditional point guard when Austin Rivers is going to have the ball in his hands so much. Personally, I believe Austin is going to be the primary initiator of our half court offense, and therefore we won't need a traditional PG alongside him, and thus it would be best to surround Austin with our best wing shooters, which are Seth and Andre.

If I'm right, then on defense, Seth will guard the opposing PG. I think he will be adequate at worst and pretty good at best. Tyler will play decent minutes and will come in to apply a somewhat stronger defense on the opposing PG. Quinn can run the team when Austin is on the bench and will get additional minutes if he proves he is ready. Michael and possibly Alex will hopefully also see minutes on the wing and will give our offense a slightly different dynamic than we have with Andre.

In the end, with so many perimeter options, it's all good.

[Bob Green]

Personally, I believe Austin is going to be the primary initiator of our half court offense, and therefore we won't need a traditional PG alongside him, and thus it would be best to surround Austin with our best wing shooters, which are Seth and Andre.

This is an interesting observation. I like the idea of having shooters Dawkins and Curry in the starting line-up with Rivers handling the ball. Rivers would initiate the offense much like Jon Scheyer did in 2010 while Dawkins and Curry look for their shot off the ball.

[darjum]

Nobody thinks Andre is going to run the point. Where did you get that idea? The question is whether we need a traditional point guard when Austin Rivers is going to have the ball in his hands so much. Personally, I believe Austin is going to be the primary initiator of our half court offense, and therefore we won't need a traditional PG alongside him, and thus it would be best to surround Austin with our best wing shooters, which are Seth and Andre.

If I'm right, then on defense, Seth will guard the opposing PG. I think he will be adequate at worst and pretty good at best. Tyler will play decent minutes and will come in to apply a somewhat stronger defense on the opposing PG. Quinn can run the team when Austin is on the bench and will get additional minutes if he proves he is ready. Michael and possibly Alex will hopefully also see minutes on the wing and will give our offense a slightly different dynamic than we have with Andre.

In the end, with so many perimeter options, it's all good.

I agree with your Dawkins point, why bring him up in relation to the thread title, in no way is Dawkins a possibility as a traditional PG?

I also believe that there might not be a traditional PG throughout the year offensively.

As long as Duke has a player that can bring the ball up the court and initiate the offense, not necessarily run it, then that will do. In that regard I believe Seth will be very adequate as I trust his ball handling and ability to knock down a shot when required. Whilst I believe Tyler is a more 'ferocious' on-ball defender, his ability to bring the ball up against traffic somewhat scared me last year and led to a few skipped heart beats.

Hopefully by tournament time it will all be sorted and there is a real chance that Cook may have found a nice position within the rotation if Duke needs a traditional play making PG?

The journey will be fun.

[Kedsy]

The journey will be fun.

Well said. And in this year more than most the team may look a lot different at the end of the journey than it does at the beginning.

[OldSchool]

This is an interesting observation. I like the idea of having shooters Dawkins and Curry in the starting line-up with Rivers handling the ball. Rivers would initiate the offense much like Jon Scheyer did in 2010 while Dawkins and Curry look for their shot off the ball.

It will be interesting to see how they use AR. My own view is that Seth (or Tyler) will bring the ball up the court, for the most part, not AR.

Then I think we will see a lot of AR coming off screens to get a pass and then having the freedom to make a play. He could shoot an open jumper, or cross his man over and get into the lane and to the rim. If the defense rotates, he can kick out for a three or dish to a big for a dunk. Once opponents figure out how good he is, he will attract double teams. Like JJ, he is going to have to run around double screens just to get the ball in his hands as opponents figure out the best defense is to try to deny him the ball.

The comparison to my mind is Kobe. AR seems to be a perfectionist like Kobe and holds himself and his teammates to a very high standard. A good shooter and a break-down dribble driver. Maybe Phil Jackson with his free time will stop by next year and share some offensive plays they used to feature Kobe.

[Saratoga2]

One more point about Tyler as the primary point guard. The problem with that idea is at least last year he fouled at a very high rate, due to his aggressive style of defense. You just can't have your primary point guard in foul trouble in the early stages of a game. It is also exhausting to play as aggrressively as he did. As long as Tyler plays the super aggressive style of defense, I expect to see him getting limited minutes with primarily a defensive role.

I don't see that as a hardship for the team, as we have Seth and Quinn who are capable of running the point and Austin who also has excellent ball handling skills.

One lurking problem was briefly mentioned in another part of this thread is that two of the new players seem to be perfectionists. In my view, both Quinn and Austin demonstrated that characteristic in some of their televised games last year. Seth and Tyler can probably help them to learn to go on to the next play and not adopt a hang dog look every time things don't go as they wish.

[DeBlueDevil]

One more point about Tyler as the primary point guard. The problem with that idea is at least last year he fouled at a very high rate, due to his aggressive style of defense. You just can't have your primary point guard in foul trouble in the early stages of a game. It is also exhausting to play as aggrressively as he did. As long as Tyler plays the super aggressive style of defense, I expect to see him getting limited minutes with primarily a defensive role.

I don't see that as a hardship for the team, as we have Seth and Quinn who are capable of running the point and Austin who also has excellent ball handling skills.

One lurking problem was briefly mentioned in another part of this thread is that two of the new players seem to be perfectionists. In my view, both Quinn and Austin demonstrated that characteristic in some of their televised games last year. Seth and Tyler can probably help them to learn to go on to the next play and not adopt a hang dog look every time things don't go as they wish.

Very good point made about his aggressive defense and fouling but I believe his agressive play was mostly because he was ABLE to play that way. With the depth and the skillset we had at times at the guard position pre Kyrie injury...it wasn't needed for Tyler to manage his fouling. I don't believe his aggressive play will be a set back this year either due to the depth we have there as well. I think coach will let Ty be Ty and play the game. Besides learning how to play with fouls and manage fouling is something that you learn with experience. As I said before, very good points but I believe our style of play last year let Tyler play all out like that. And from the depth we have this year I would be totally suprised if K didn't adopt the "play as hard as you can for as long as you can" style this year as well.

[rocketeli]

Or whatever you want to call them.
I could see a line-up of:
Ryan Mason Austin Curry Thornton
As one of the hallmarks of the Coach K system is having specific replacements for each position
Ryan backed with

Gbinije/Hairston
Murphy (has everyone forgotten him?)

Mason backed up by Miles and then Marshall

Rivers/Curry backed up with Dawkins

Curry backed up with Dawkins (for off guard time) and Cook

[ACCBBallFan]

Very good point made about his aggressive defense and fouling but I believe his agressive play was mostly because he was ABLE to play that way. With the depth and the skillset we had at times at the guard position pre Kyrie injury...it wasn't needed for Tyler to manage his fouling. I don't believe his aggressive play will be a set back this year either due to the depth we have there as well. I think coach will let Ty be Ty and play the game. Besides learning how to play with fouls and manage fouling is something that you learn with experience. As I said before, very good points but I believe our style of play last year let Tyler play all out like that. And from the depth we have this year I would be totally suprised if K didn't adopt the "play as hard as you can for as long as you can" style this year as well.Coach K seemed to insert Tyler when he thought his team was not playing tough enough. So the fouls were kind of a self fulfilling prophecy. I expect he will be able to contain his propensity to foul much the way the Plumlees were able to make that adjustment most of the time last year, at least Mason.

I do agreee with Kedsy that Austin will have the ball in his hands virtually every possession since he is virtually unguardable. He can shoot, and drive and seems to do a good job of varying each from that jab step move.

Because of that Duke can go with a less tradiitonal PG like Seth rather than limit its choice to Tyler or Quinn. Seth's longer term direction is at a PG anyway and he did have to run the B-team the year he sat out since Dre is not a PG.

It remain to be seen how effective Mike Gbinje or Alex Murphy will be relative to Josh Haisrston's improvement, but the nucleus seems to be

Seth Curry backed up by Tyler Thornton or Quinn Cook

Dre Dawkins backed up by Tyler or Quinn or move Austin Rivers there when Mike G is in

Austin Rivers backed up by Mike Gbinije or Josh Hairston

Ryan Kelly backed up by Alex Murphy or Josh

Mason and Miles Plumlee alternating with cameo appearances by Marshall Plumlee.

That would be a primary 6 of Austin and the lone senior Miles and the juniors Seth, Dre, Ryan nad Mason, plus whichever of the sophs Tyler or Josh or the remianing frosh Quinn, Mike, Alex or Marshall prove most ready.

All 12 should get showcased in China and Dubai and the OOC until it plays out, but the 5 upperclassmen and the #1 (or #2) overall player will likely be 6 of the top 7-8 at end of year.

[uh_no]

The argument is generally made here that coach K doesn't have 'positions,' which in theory would make this thread invalid. We know that can't be true to an extent and someone must be the primary ball handler. We also have said (especially last year) that K plays the best 5 players regardless of position. Looking at it that way, I think it becomes clearer who will be playing:

Austin. No brainer.
Seth....if he's not one of the 5 best players on the team, then we should be ranked preseason #1
Andre....when he's playing well, he's clearly in the 5, but when he's playing down, its slightly more debatable....and it would depend on the gains that tyler has made in the offseason. I think andre is likely past any perceived effort issues and should shine
Mason....should continue to build after a promising season
TOSS UP- i'd have to leave this one to tony K and Wilbon....but would lean towards miles at least to start the season....well call it the Senior bias.

Tyler certainly brings a lot to the table, but I don't think he's good enough to bump either of seth or andre out of the starting lineup. Of course maybe K decides to use one of them off the bench as a spark. Being relatively new to duke basketball, I am unsure of his propensity to do such a thing (its a common calhoun tactic though). Maybe K starts tyler to incentivize Andre to get off to the right start?

As always, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, and I'll be rooting for the guys out there regardless of who they might be.

Here's to hoping Todd gets the start!

[Kedsy]

Like JJ, he is going to have to run around double screens just to get the ball in his hands as opponents figure out the best defense is to try to deny him the ball.

This is one reason I feel he is going to start with the ball in his hands. Hard to deny him if he already has it.

And Austin reputedly has a much better handle than JJ had, so it's feasible for him to initiate the offense.

[Scorp4me]

I agree with your Dawkins point, why bring him up in relation to the thread title, in no way is Dawkins a possibility as a traditional PG?...

...Whilst I believe Tyler is a more 'ferocious' on-ball defender, his ability to bring the ball up against traffic somewhat scared me last year and led to a few skipped heart beats.

...Hopefully by tournament time it will all be sorted and there is a real chance that Cook may have found a nice position within the rotation if Duke needs a traditional play making PG?

The journey will be fun.

This year especially I think it's hard not to talk about other players when discussing one particular position. They all seem to hinge on other things. While I believe K will start the best 5, ultimately it's his job to play the 5 with the best combination to win. Which I think is what we are all trying to read the tea leaves to figure out.

One thing to remember is that while Thornton caused a few "skipped heart beats" last year, Cook hasn't had the opportunity to give you the same feelings of trepidation because he hasn't had that freshman year yet. As for Thornton, I've heard it said the best thing about freshman is they become sophomores...or something to that effect.


And I certainly agree with your final statement. I can't remember a year where we had so many questions and so many options that all seem viable. Good? Bad? Rather have 5 with super star potential and 5 scrubs than 10 with solid games? Gonna be fun!

[Duke of Nashville]

One lurking problem was briefly mentioned in another part of this thread is that two of the new players seem to be perfectionists. In my view, both Quinn and Austin demonstrated that characteristic in some of their televised games last year. Seth and Tyler can probably help them to learn to go on to the next play and not adopt a hang dog look every time things don't go as they wish.

This coming year is going to be interesting. Something in particular that I will be looking for in the beginning of the year is leadership (specifically from Andre and Seth) and team chemistry. I am unsure who will be selected as the captain(s) but it will take more than just the selected in order for this season to reach some pretty high standards/goals. Tyler appears to be a natural leader and I think he has the tools to be a solid contributor for next season.

I'm ready for the season to start!

[jipops]

This is an interesting observation. I like the idea of having shooters Dawkins and Curry in the starting line-up with Rivers handling the ball. Rivers would initiate the offense much like Jon Scheyer did in 2010 while Dawkins and Curry look for their shot off the ball.

All of the televised high school games featuring Austin seem to indicate that he is much more comfortable dominating the ball rather than pursuing it. So perhaps having Austin initiating offense can keep him in his comfort zone starting out. However, I really have no idea how the rest of the offense would adapt to a non-pg freshman with a scorer's mentality carrying a facilitator role. It could lend itself to Dawkins and Curry getting their looks off the ball but how well will we be able to manage the ball on offense in that scenario. What kind of looks will the big men get? Scheyer was a very special case in that he was practically a mistake-free player. That expectation does not exist with Austin.

It's not going to be the same guy throughout the season but I feel like Curry is going to be the initiator throughout the bulk of the season (ACC). He does have the ability to handle the ball and he has experience having been a huge factor in big games past. Seth isn't a spot-up guy anyways. He has seemed most comfortable getting his shot off one or two bounces so having him as the initiator may keep him in his comfort zone as well.

[yancem]

One thing to keep in mind is that Rivers played a fair amount of pg early in his HS career and his father was an nba pg so we could see him as not just a "primary ball handler" but a legitimate pg. Also, K has a history of using non pg's as the facilitator/initiator of the offense. G-Hill often brought the ball up the court and controlled the offense and Scheyer was never a classic pg but he ran the offense very well.

If you have Cook or Thornton running the offense, it is going to be hard to have both Curry and Rivers/Dawkins on the court at the same time for major minutes against bigger teams. Curry playing the 2 and/or Rivers the 3 is bound to create some match up problems against teams that either have a big 2 or 3. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Curry/Rivers/Dawkins backcourt with Curry being the primary pg defender and Rivers being the primary ball handler.

[OldSchool]

People are talking about who the leader of this team will be. I think it will be AR. I think AR will be the primary decision-maker on offense, and he will be our best player.

I expect AR - Curry - Dawkins to start at 1-3 positions. Curry will bring the ball up the court as the point guard. In the half court offense, most of the time he will either just pass it to AR or they will try to get AR in a mismatch or momentarily open by coming off screens. AR will have the ball in triple-threat position and our half-court offense will proceed from what he does. He could take his man off the dribble, he could pop a step-back jumper, or he could make an entry pass to a big. AR will also be a big part of our transition offense with his basketball smarts and aggressiveness.

Because of the quality depth both Curry and Dawkins will be challenged and players behind them will have the chance to take away some of their minutes.

But AR will be the leader of this team from the jump and will be the star of the show. Last year we saw two senior NCAA champion and potential all-America caliber players defer to a freshman from the moment he stepped on the court. AR is of a similar level talent, and we will see the other players defer to him as the best player on the court.

[The Gordog]

I could be wrong, but it seems the vast majority of board members believe the starting PG job is Seth's. So when Kyle and Nolan state that the job will be Tyler's based on his defense and toughness that makes me wonder.
I realize this isn't a done deal and this is coming from two former players, but these are some pretty informed individuals who saw the returning players day in and day out. Lance Thomas wasn't an offensive wiz, but he got the starters job based on being a hard nosed defender and one tough cookie. I'm really not sure this is painting anyone else in a negative light. Each player brings something different to the game. If these traits displayed by Tyler get him a starting gig then I'll be happy with that.

And based on the fact that there was no other viable option at that position. So the situation is not analogous.


The argument is generally made here that coach K doesn't have 'positions,' which in theory would make this thread invalid. We know that can't be true to an extent and someone must be the primary ball handler. We also have said (especially last year) that K plays the best 5 players regardless of position. Looking at it that way, I think it becomes clearer who will be playing:

Austin. No brainer.
Seth....if he's not one of the 5 best players on the team, then we should be ranked preseason #1
Andre....when he's playing well, he's clearly in the 5, but when he's playing down, its slightly more debatable....and it would depend on the gains that tyler has made in the offseason. I think andre is likely past any perceived effort issues and should shine
Mason....should continue to build after a promising season
TOSS UP- i'd have to leave this one to tony K and Wilbon....but would lean towards miles at least to start the season....well call it the Senior bias.

Tyler certainly brings a lot to the table, but I don't think he's good enough to bump either of seth or andre out of the starting lineup. Of course maybe K decides to use one of them off the bench as a spark. Being relatively new to duke basketball, I am unsure of his propensity to do such a thing (its a common calhoun tactic though). Maybe K starts tyler to incentivize Andre to get off to the right start?

As always, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, and I'll be rooting for the guys out there regardless of who they might be.

Here's to hoping Todd gets the start!

Seems like you are forgetting Ryan. I believe he will play more than Miles because his trend line seems to have a steeper rate of climb.

My observations of 28 years of Duke Basketball have taught me that K does not play his best 5 defenders. There is a minimum standard of defensive intensity that you must meet in order to play more than spot duty (Taylor King) but beyond that it's total effectiveness - offensive and defensive - and the needs of the team that determine PT. All this is to say that I think it unlikely that Tyler starts over Seth, AR, or Dawkins.

[uh_no]

Seems like you are forgetting Ryan. I believe he will play more than Miles because his trend line seems to have a steeper rate of climb.


Oh I agree. I think that being a senior will get Miles the nod starting off with ryan being the first guy off the bench. This will probably change if ryan shows to be more effective.

[ncexnyc]

And based on the fact that there was no other viable option at that position. So the situation is not analogous.

We did have Mason, Miles, and Ryan on the roster during Lance's senior year. Both Brian and Lance were dismissed early on by a number of board members in favor of the Plumlee brothers, especially after they helped destory Wake Forest. As I've already stated, each kid brings something different to the table. Coach K felt the team needed what Lance contributed, more than what the other 3 kids did. Based on the minutes the Plumlee brothers amassed during that season, I think saying we didn't have any other viable option isn't really valid.