NBA Draft Busts

[Jim3k]

The DBR main page argues that the biggest draft bust of all time is Chris Washburn, not Darko Milicic.

I dunno where they got these two as in the running for the biggest busts. It seems they have totally forgotten the Trailblazers' history. In 1972, Portland had the number 1 overall pick and chose all-time nobody, LaRue Martin. Martin was 6'11" and never did anything. He was in the league for parts of four years and averaged a little over 5 points.

Martin does have a redemptive story which can be read here (http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/25/larue-martins-story-proves-one-of-redemption-success/), but there should be no real debate that he is the worst first round draft pick of all time.

[rthomas]

There were so many of them but I'd have to go with Sam Bowie. Bowie was drafted 2nd by Portland over Jordan (3), Sam Perkins (4), Barkley (5), Alvin Robertson (7), Kevin Willis (11), John Stockton (16) and Jerome Kersey (46).

[CameronBornAndBred]

I dunno where they got these two as in the running for the biggest busts. It seems they have totally forgotten the Trailblazers' history.
They may have added to that history with Greg Oden. Granted, his woes are mostly injury related, but it still does not negate the fact that he was their #1 pick and in 4 years has only played 82 games with a career output of 9 ppg.

[PumpkinFunk]

Michael Olowokandi takes the cake for me. He was taken #1 in the draft, in front of Mike Bibby (#2), Antawn Jamison (#4), Vince Carter (#5), Dirk (#9), Paul Pierce (#10), Rashard Lewis (#32) and was a project of a draft pick. Maybe it was more the ineptness of the Clippers that caused that pick, but still... he was pretty awful.

EDIT:

Also, Kwame Brown is up there on the list of busts. I'm a bit of a bitter Wizards fan about that, but still, this was an awful pick.

[theAlaskanBear]

Michael Olowokandi takes the cake for me. He was taken #1 in the draft, in front of Mike Bibby (#2), Antawn Jamison (#4), Vince Carter (#5), Dirk (#9), Paul Pierce (#10), Rashard Lewis (#32) and was a project of a draft pick. Maybe it was more the ineptness of the Clippers that caused that pick, but still... he was pretty awful.

EDIT:

Also, Kwame Brown is up there on the list of busts. I'm a bit of a bitter Wizards fan about that, but still, this was an awful pick.

Kandi can't take the cake because of his longevity...and the fact he did have some seasons that remotely resembled a basketball player. He was in the league for almost 10 seasons (albeit many injury filled) but there were a couple of back-to-back seasons where he put up 10+ pts and 8+ rebs. His best season was a 12pt 9reb effort for the Clippers.

Kwame Brown is definitely up there -- in recent years Kwame, Purvis Ellison, Kent Benson, and LaRue Martin were the worst picks...I don't think it makes sense to go past the 1970s though because drafting/team rights were so different.

[JasonEvans]

There were so many of them but I'd have to go with Sam Bowie. Bowie was drafted 2nd by Portland over Jordan (3), Sam Perkins (4), Barkley (5), Alvin Robertson (7), Kevin Willis (11), John Stockton (16) and Jerome Kersey (46).

Sam Bowie gets such a bad rap because Jordan went after him. While it may have been smarter to take Jordan with the #2 pick (Olajuwon went #1), that does not make Bowie a bust of a pick.

Sam averaged double-digit points in 6 of his first 7 seasons, hardly a bust. He was a pretty solid rebounder too, generally grabbing more than 8 boards per game. He was a very effective shot-blocker too.

The biggest problem was that he kept on getting injured. He was not a great player, but was a solid NBA starter for most of his career -- a career that kept on getting derailed by injuries.

-Jason "poor Sam, he unfairly gets a bad rap" Evans

[JasonEvans]

By the way, I hate to say it but Shelden is somewhere on the list. For a #5 pick to be as insignificant a player as he has been is sorta remarkable. For that #5 pick to have been a very established college player, not a foreign kid or a high schooler, makes it even more interesting. And we are not even talking about a guy who has had injury problems either.

I love Shel and continually wish him well in the NBA, but he was a terrible, terrible draft pick.

--Jason "I'll probably get some negative rep points for this post -- but it is the truth" Evans

[jimsumner]

The DBR main page argues that the biggest draft bust of all time is Chris Washburn, not Darko Milicic.

I dunno where they got these two as in the running for the biggest busts. It seems they have totally forgotten the Trailblazers' history. In 1972, Portland had the number 1 overall pick and chose all-time nobody, LaRue Martin. Martin was 6'11" and never did anything. He was in the league for parts of four years and averaged a little over 5 points.

Martin does have a redemptive story which can be read here (http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/25/larue-martins-story-proves-one-of-redemption-success/), but there should be no real debate that he is the worst first round draft pick of all time.

The 1972 draft was pretty weak. But Portland could have taken Robert McAdoo. Paul Westphal was available. Even Dwight Davis would have been better. Martin quickly lost his starting job at center to fellow rookie Lloyd Neal, all 6-7 of him.

[COYS]

By the way, I hate to say it but Shelden is somewhere on the list. For a #5 pick to be as insignificant a player as he has been is sorta remarkable. For that #5 pick to have been a very established college player, not a foreign kid or a high schooler, makes it even more interesting. And we are not even talking about a guy who has had injury problems either.

I love Shel and continually wish him well in the NBA, but he was a terrible, terrible draft pick.

--Jason "I'll probably get some negative rep points for this post -- but it is the truth" Evans

As a Hawks fan, you're entitled to being a little harder on Shel than most on this board would be. However, for the most part, the draft was pretty unimpressive. I'd argue that Adam Morrison who went #3 that year was an even worse pick. Brandon Roy, who went #6, is another one in a long list of talented guards that the Hawks have continuously managed to miss out on. The only other player available to the Hawks that has really become a star is Rondo, but I'm not sure that he would've thrived as much in ATL as he has in Boston and there was no way he was going as high as #5 at the tie.

[jipops]

By the way, I hate to say it but Shelden is somewhere on the list. For a #5 pick to be as insignificant a player as he has been is sorta remarkable. For that #5 pick to have been a very established college player, not a foreign kid or a high schooler, makes it even more interesting. And we are not even talking about a guy who has had injury problems either.

I love Shel and continually wish him well in the NBA, but he was a terrible, terrible draft pick.

--Jason "I'll probably get some negative rep points for this post -- but it is the truth" Evans

Unfortunately, I think you are completely correct. He was a very bad pick at #5. But I also think that had a lot to do with the weakness of the draft. Yet to spend the #5 pick on a big man who is painfully slow laterally with absolutely no hops seems way too high, no matter how weak the draft pool.

[brianl]

I hope this doesn't offend anyone, and it's not intended to do so in any way.


If you define a "draft bust" as a huge investment with no return. I would have to say that the Boston Celtics selection of Len Bias would fall somewhere near the top of the list.

While his death was tragic, and his greatness will never be known. From a pure business standpoint, the Celtics lost arguably their franchise player for the next decade.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Sam Bowie gets such a bad rap because Jordan went after him. While it may have been smarter to take Jordan with the #2 pick (Olajuwon went #1), that does not make Bowie a bust of a pick.

Sam averaged double-digit points in 6 of his first 7 seasons, hardly a bust. He was a pretty solid rebounder too, generally grabbing more than 8 boards per game. He was a very effective shot-blocker too.

The biggest problem was that he kept on getting injured. He was not a great player, but was a solid NBA starter for most of his career -- a career that kept on getting derailed by injuries.

-Jason "poor Sam, he unfairly gets a bad rap" Evans

I agree that Bowie gets a bad rap. Portland also had Clyde Drexler so the Bowie was kind of logical for them.

I also think you have to remove players whose careers were ruined by unforeseeable injuries/accidents etc. from consideration. Were Bobby Hurley, Jason Williams or Len Bias bad picks?

In my opinion Washburn and Kwame are at the top of the list. I think some of Washburn's issues should have been figured out prior to the draft and Kwame was a totally unknown quantity. However both had great potential and the NBA drafts on potential.

SoCal

[hq2]

By the way, I hate to say it but Shelden is somewhere on the list. For a #5 pick to be as insignificant a player as he has been is sorta remarkable. For that #5 pick to have been a very established college player, not a foreign kid or a high schooler, makes it even more interesting. And we are not even talking about a guy who has had injury problems either.

I love Shel and continually wish him well in the NBA, but he was a terrible, terrible draft pick.


Yes, Shelden went too high (I had him around 10-15), but that was a weak draft. Adam Morrison, who was what, #3, is out of the league. Shelden was clearly going to have problems on offense, but he's actually panning out now about as I had him picked back then; a good, solid defensive player, a good teammate, and good rebounder with limited offensive skills. In that role, he has done well with both Denver and New York, and may do so next year. Don't write him off just yet.

[tommy]

Yes, Shelden went too high (I had him around 10-15), but that was a weak draft. Adam Morrison, who was what, #3, is out of the league. Shelden was clearly going to have problems on offense, but he's actually panning out now about as I had him picked back then; a good, solid defensive player, a good teammate, and good rebounder with limited offensive skills. In that role, he has done well with both Denver and New York, and may do so next year. Don't write him off just yet.

Yeah, it was a terrible draft. It was, or should've been pretty obvious that Shel, as good as he was in college, just didn't have the athleticism or the game to excel in the NBA. Nevertheless, in perusing that draft, if it was to be re-done with the benefit of hindsight, Shel could still be a lottery pick. A low one, probably around 11th or 12th or so, but still.

The guys I would put ahead of him are (in no particular order):
Bargnani
Aldridge
Roy
Gay
Redick
Ronnie Brewer
Rondo
Shannon Brown
Farmar
Boobie Gibson
Millsap

There are a few others whose careers have played out at about the same level as Shel's, that might or might not be taken ahead of him, depending on need. Guys like Kyle Lowry, Steve Novak, Rodney Carney, Randy Foye, and Tyrus Thomas. So I guess Shel would land in the 11-17 range or so. Incredible.

[hurleyfor3]

I hope this doesn't offend anyone, and it's not intended to do so in any way.


If you define a "draft bust" as a huge investment with no return. I would have to say that the Boston Celtics selection of Len Bias would fall somewhere near the top of the list.

You think mentioning Bias is bad? Jason Williams would be the third rail.

[DevilWearsPrada]

They may have added to that history with Greg Oden. Granted, his woes are mostly injury related, but it still does not negate the fact that he was their #1 pick and in 4 years has only played 82 games with a career output of 9 ppg.

Injuries can certainly alter or end any professional athletic career. As a NBA lottery pick, is the salary guaranteed for several years; like a 3 year contract deal?

It has to take a mental toll on these young athletes, that sustain lifelong injuries, and wrecks their careers and dreams! They worked so hard, as kids to be Elite athletes, and ONE major injury, sidelines them, and some forever.

[Starter]

I'm with Jason Evans on Shelden. Having Roy and Gay as two of the next three picks magnifies the pick of Shelden as a no-question Top 5 bust. And not for nothing, I was of course a fan of Shelden's at Duke, but I didn't think he'd be an impact pro, just a very good college player. I'm surprised the Hawks did. And all this said... Shelden has done very well for himself regardless, both monetarily and in terms of stealing Candace Parker from me. (It wasn't hard, we've never met and I'm 5-foot-6.) The draft bust stuff is definitely far more for fans than for players.

As a fan myself, I nominate four players for biggest bust -- in the same draft! People get on the Blazers for taking Bowie instead of snagging Jordan and "playing him at center," but it was arguably even worse a year later. The Clippers took Benoit Benjamin third, the Hawks took Jon Koncak fifth (and compounded it by giving him that infamous horrible six-year contract), the Kings took Joe Kleine sixth, and the Bulls took Keith Lee 11th, though they did dump him on the Cavs for Charles Oakley. In the same draft, No. 7-9 were Chris Mullin, Detlef Schrempf and Oak. Karl Malone was 13th and Joe Dumars was 18th.

[JasonEvans]

In truth, there are so many massive misses on guys in the 3-8 draft range that we really should confine "biggest bust" to guys who go in the top 2 in the draft.


As a fan myself, I nominate four players for biggest bust -- in the same draft! People get on the Blazers for taking Bowie instead of snagging Jordan and "playing him at center," but it was arguably even worse a year later. The Clippers took Benoit Benjamin third, the Hawks took Jon Koncak fifth (and compounded it by giving him that infamous horrible six-year contract), the Kings took Joe Kleine sixth, and the Bulls took Keith Lee 11th, though they did dump him on the Cavs for Charles Oakley. In the same draft, No. 7-9 were Chris Mullin, Detlef Schrempf and Oak. Karl Malone was 13th and Joe Dumars was 18th.

I was talking about Koncak and that horrible draft a day or two ago with some Hawk-fan friends. We were reminiscing on some of the dreadful draft-day decisions of this team. I pointed out that every time the Hawks have a no-brainer pick where I am yelling at the TV for them to take someone instead of the Duke player (Ro McLeod vs Al Harrington and Shel vs Brandon Roy), they take the Dukie... and every time they have a Dukie as a no brainer, they take the non-Dukie (Josh Childress and Luol Deng).

Sigh.

As for Koncak, it should be recalled that the Hawks merely matched Detroit's offer sheet on him. Detroit set the market on that stuff. Atlanta should have let him walk.

Did you know that at one point in his crazy contract, Koncak was making more than Charles Barley. I am not talking about Charles' rookie contract either. Charles had already been a 5-time All-Star at this point. It was 1992-93, his first year with the Suns. Sir Charles made 2.42 million and Koncak made 2.45 million.

That was the year Charles averaged 25 ppg, 12 rpg, and 5 apg. He won the league MVP award.

Koncak averaged 3.5 ppg and 5.5 rpg.

--Jason "They should have arrested Jon Koncak for robbery!" Evans

[tommy]

If the "bust" label, as someone suggested, has to be applied considering who else was available at the time the picks were made, then Olowokandi #1 and LaFrentz #3 in the 1998 draft have to be up there, despite the fact that they both were, at times, decent players. Vince Carter went #5 that year (after Jamison), and #s 9 and 10 were two Hall of Famers, Dirk and Paul Pierce. Yikes.

Same deal goes with '87. Armen Gilliam went #2 and Dennis Hopson #3. Gilliams was OK, Hopson did zippo. Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen went #5, while KJ went at 7 and probable Hall of Famer Reggie Miller fell to 11.

If we're not going to contain ourselves to just #1 and #2 picks, then when about '96? Selections 7 through 12 went like this:

Lorenzen Wright
Kerry Kittles
Samaki Walker
Todd Fuller
Vitaly Potapenko

13 was Kobe Bryant
15 was Steve Nash.

Oy!!

[theAlaskanBear]

By the way, I hate to say it but Shelden is somewhere on the list. For a #5 pick to be as insignificant a player as he has been is sorta remarkable. For that #5 pick to have been a very established college player, not a foreign kid or a high schooler, makes it even more interesting. And we are not even talking about a guy who has had injury problems either.

I love Shel and continually wish him well in the NBA, but he was a terrible, terrible draft pick.

--Jason "I'll probably get some negative rep points for this post -- but it is the truth" Evans

No negative rep, BUT:

http://www.nba.com/history/draft_top13.html

When you get down to picks 4+ you start to see the misses increase. There are some guys worse than Shelden at the #5 spot -- and when you consider how weak his overall draft was...it looks less egregious.

[ncexnyc]

Sam Bowie gets such a bad rap because Jordan went after him. While it may have been smarter to take Jordan with the #2 pick (Olajuwon went #1), that does not make Bowie a bust of a pick.

Sam averaged double-digit points in 6 of his first 7 seasons, hardly a bust. He was a pretty solid rebounder too, generally grabbing more than 8 boards per game. He was a very effective shot-blocker too.

The biggest problem was that he kept on getting injured. He was not a great player, but was a solid NBA starter for most of his career -- a career that kept on getting derailed by injuries.

-Jason "poor Sam, he unfairly gets a bad rap" Evans

Every year around this time, just prior to the draft there will always be polls, blogs, and articles talking about the biggest busts in the history of the NBA. It's very unfortunate that a class act such as Sam Bowie gets labelled as a bust. As you've pointed out, while healthy Sam was a solid NBA player. Unfortunately for him his body betrayed him and he just happened to get drafted in a class that featured several HOF players and possibly the greatest of all time.

[darjum]

Are we ready to label Oden as a bust yet? When healthy he was reasonably productive...when healthy. Is a bust someone who is healthy but couldn't produce relative to their draft position, Kwame, Darko; or do we include players like Bowie & Oden who were/are often injured but can play?

I say if you're not healthy you're not a bust. But Portland fans will find little solace in my opinion.

[yancem]

Instead of just focusing on the worst picks of all time, why don't we also talk about some of the best picks of all time? I'm sure that there are other (and possibly better) examples but I would have to think that Boozer would be on any list. He was a second round pick who has been an all-star and won a gold metal.

Just thought I would broaden the topic a little!

[epoulsen]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/578396-the-50-most-overrated-stars-in-nba-history?utm_source=outbrain.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=bestof#/articles/578396-the-50-most-overrated-stars-in-nba-history/page/51

This is an interesting list, I disagree with most of their picks though. It appears that their definition of "over hyped" really means "didn't win a championship", which is clearly not the same thing. Among the local notables on the list are Elton Brand, Christian Laettner, Shane Battier and Vince Carter.

[ThePublisher]

Kyrie Irving! Not hardly...

Most recently... greg oden. Maybe if he wasn't a walking, or should I say hobbling, injury.

[JasonEvans]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/578396-the-50-most-overrated-stars-in-nba-history?utm_source=outbrain.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=bestof#/articles/578396-the-50-most-overrated-stars-in-nba-history/page/51

This is an interesting list, I disagree with most of their picks though. It appears that their definition of "over hyped" really means "didn't win a championship", which is clearly not the same thing. Among the local notables on the list are Elton Brand, Christian Laettner, Shane Battier and Vince Carter.

There really should be a ban on links to Bleacher Report articles. Sigh.

The author of that list knows little about basketball. He cracks me up when he talks about Elton Brand being one of the most overrated players in basketball by saying, "If he doesn't watch out, he could become the next Karl Malone."

Ummm, Karl Malone is one of the 3-5 best PFs in NBA history. Duuuh!

-Jason "seriously, Bleacher Report is like barely one step above posting on a bulletin board ;) " Evans

[JasonEvans]

There really should be a ban on links to Bleacher Report articles. Sigh.

The author of that list knows little about basketball. He cracks me up when he talks about Elton Brand being one of the most overrated players in basketball by saying, "If he doesn't watch out, he could become the next Karl Malone."

Ummm, Karl Malone is one of the 3-5 best PFs in NBA history. Duuuh!

-Jason "seriously, Bleacher Report is like barely one step above posting on a bulletin board ;) " Evans

Ohmygod... I just finished the list. Among the most overrated players in NBA history he cites Patrick Ewing, Lebron James, Karl Malone, and Kevin McHale.

I am really worried that some of the stupid that infects that article has worn off on me as a result of me reading it. Seriously, I very well may be dumber because I read that list!! How dare you do that to me!!!?! I am already dumb enough without having to add that mindless list to my short-term (very short-term, I hope) memory!!

Wow... just horrible.

-Jason "serves me right for clicking on a Bleacher Report link" Evans

[epoulsen]

There really should be a ban on links to Bleacher Report articles. Sigh.

The author of that list knows little about basketball. He cracks me up when he talks about Elton Brand being one of the most overrated players in basketball by saying, "If he doesn't watch out, he could become the next Karl Malone."

Ummm, Karl Malone is one of the 3-5 best PFs in NBA history. Duuuh!

-Jason "seriously, Bleacher Report is like barely one step above posting on a bulletin board ;) " Evans

I'll do my best to not post anymore links from them haha. Now that you mention it I don't think I've ever gleaned any useful information from that site. I guess I'll just use them from now on to boost my basketball IQ ego.

[brevity]

This kind of thing is so subjective, and is further complicated because you can define a draft bust in at least 3 ways:

1. Bad Breaks: A person who was picked high and seemed like an okay/good idea at the time, but was a non-presence in the league, due to injury, overdose, disciplinary issues, whatever. High risk and zero (or close to zero) return.

2. Bad in Hindsight: A person who was picked high and seemed like an okay/good idea at the time, but was never the star that he should have been, and whose failure is amplified by the now-megastars who were drafted after him that same night. High(er) risk and low(er) return, due to inevitable comparison.

3. Bad Idea: A person who was picked high for no logical reason, and who was disappointing enough to prove the critics right. Dumb risk, period.

This thread is quickly illustrating the uselessness of trying to compare, say, one kind of 2nd overall pick bust (Jay Williams) from another (Sam Bowie). I greatly appreciate those respondents who pointed out that some so-called flameouts didn't really flame out at all, but were just not star material.

What makes a good list is well-defined criteria. Sticking to one of the above categories (or thinking of another, better way to separate the masses) could make an informative contribution to this sports debate. Possible talking points:

Is this really the weakest draft crop in memory?
What are the worst 1st round draft picks in Atlanta Hawks history?
In retrospect, what's the most lopsided trade in draft night history?
Who is the dumbest NBA general manager (or draft decision maker) ever?
Why is talking about NFL Busts amusing, while NBA Busts are kinda depressing?

[Starter]

Some decent points by Brevity in there; obviously, there are multiple ways to define the amorphous NBA Draft bust. That said, I don't think it's all that necessary to define the criteria used to discern who we consider a bust. Of course, personally, I would tend to discount luck -- Bias, Jason Williams, Hurley, even Oden, I can't consider them busts given that it was simply bad fortune they weren't legitimate factors in the NBA worthy of their draft status. I can't blame a franchise for not using a crystal ball and seeing a horrible accident or personal tragedy coming. Personally, though, I do consider opportunity cost to be important when considering the concept of a "bust." The examples I cited of underwhelming lumberers, Kleine/Koncak/et. al -- are made even worse when considering Mullin and Malone right after them. It's just, think of how these franchises would have changed indelibly and over the long term if they had one of the best power forwards or shooters ever instead of a useless lumberer, if they had only recognized the talent in front of them. In that respect, I would call the Knicks' ridiculous pick of Renaldo Balkman at No. 20 in 2006 -- which I had the honor of being there for -- a bust despite coming nowhere near the top 5, considering that Rajon Rondo went one pick later.

(Note: I do realize it's "easier said than done" when identifying NBA talent, and I'm no scout myself. That said, I can't remember anyone who thought Olowokandi was a good idea, and I'd have to think -- have to! -- that if you watched Karl Malone and Chris Mullin play in college and work out pre-draft, that you'd know they were totally awesome.)

[COYS]

(Note: I do realize it's "easier said than done" when identifying NBA talent, and I'm no scout myself. That said, I can't remember anyone who thought Olowokandi was a good idea, and I'd have to think -- have to! -- that if you watched Karl Malone and Chris Mullin play in college and work out pre-draft, that you'd know they were totally awesome.)

I think your last point is particularly valid. If everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, thinks someone is really good and they don't pan out, you can't fault the team for drafting them. This goes for injury guys (J-Will, Oden, etc.) as well as people who ended up being less impressive than projected by pretty much every scout. The irony with the Darko situation is that the Piston both got a bona-fide bust (there's no way to dispute that taking a risk on Darko was a pretty big gamble in light of the talent available). However, they also got a championship that may or may not have happened if they drafted Wade, Anthony, or Bosh. There's no way to know how their roster would've been constructed in 2004 with one of those three, but there's a good chance they don't get Rasheed Wallace if they go with Bosh or Anthony (the two higher rated prospects at the time). How does Wade fit in with Rip? If the Hawks could be guilty of one of the biggest draft busts of all time (ATL goes for quantity rather than quality of busts) AND win the championship the very next season, even if it meant they would miss out on the chance at future championships for the next 10 years, give me the bird in hand! Besides, the Pistons were really close to snatching the 2005 title away from the Spurs. If Game 7 of the 2005 finals tilts Detroit's way, Darko over Wade/Bosh/Anthony would be a footnote. If you flub a draft pick but do a great job constructing the overall team anyway, the player you drafted might be a bust, but it was a big win for the team.

[tommy]

Note: I do realize it's "easier said than done" when identifying NBA talent, and I'm no scout myself. That said, I can't remember anyone who thought Olowokandi was a good idea . . .

Not true. There was a very active debate at the time as to who the Clippers should take: Olowokandi or Bibby. There were knowledgeable and respected basketball people on both sides of that one. With the benefit of hindsight, the decision should've been obvious. (Actually, with the benefit of hindsight, they would've chosen a Hall of Famer like Dirk Nowitzki or Paul Pierce, or maybe even Vince Carter.) But of course, even between the two guys that just about everyone had 1 and 2, the Clippers being the Clippers, they chose wrong.

[Rudy]

To me, to qualify as a bust the pick should be a mistake by the team which drafted him, i.e. a misjudgment about his talent, work ethic or character. Bias wasn't a mistake. Oden might have been a mistake because there were thoughts before the draft that his legs were older than his chronological age.

[Starter]

Not true. There was a very active debate at the time as to who the Clippers should take: Olowokandi or Bibby. There were knowledgeable and respected basketball people on both sides of that one. With the benefit of hindsight, the decision should've been obvious. (Actually, with the benefit of hindsight, they would've chosen a Hall of Famer like Dirk Nowitzki or Paul Pierce, or maybe even Vince Carter.) But of course, even between the two guys that just about everyone had 1 and 2, the Clippers being the Clippers, they chose wrong.

Yeah, check that, I guess I'd imagine there were. I mean, I hated the guy -- not personally -- but you can find draftniks willing to back nearly any player. When you read a mock draft, do they ever actually kill a guy in there? Even the ones with shakiest games have "potential." Still though, I would tend to think that even without the benefit of hindsight, in such a loaded draft, you can make the right choice there. I'm sure there was a debate back then, because people didn't know what they were doing. I mean, Pierce fell to No. 10. Who among us -- even on draft night, without the benefit of hindsight -- didn't think he'd make nine teams feel very foolish? NBA teams were more into potential and obviously had not yet learned their lesson about drafting solely for size at that point. That said, I know Olowokandi had the one monster year at Pacific, and lord knows he had the pedigree. ... Wasn't he a croquet player in England before coming here, or something like that? Those usually become excellent NBA basketball players.

It probably helped him in a couple of ways to play in the Big West; at 7-foot-1 he put up ridiculous numbers, and probably nobody really watched him play a whole lot. I'll admit, I hadn't seen him play one time before that draft, I just knew he was tall and from a small conference. Then I watched him play in the NBA and it was laughable -- at least compared to what they could have had. He did have a couple of serviceable seasons stats-wise, though it took a few years to get there and didn't last long.

Is it hindsight in this case? You'd have to take my word that it's not, or you don't, either way. I remember watching the draft with friends and thinking it was an absolute joke of a pick. I had just watched Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison live and in person, and figured they'd both be stars. Bibby seemed a no-brainer NBA point guard; he was being compared to Jason Kidd back then. I loved Pierce. (I admit to knowing next to nothing about Nowitzki.) Of course, I also bought into everyone's hype that Kwame Brown had the potential to be the next Garnett. To rehash a tired meme, the draft is most certainly a crapshoot. But when you pass on Carter, Jamison and Pierce -- and even Bibby -- your'e not doing it right, even without a time machine or whatever.

[Starter]

I'd love to see some of those old pre-draft reports on Olowokandi, by the way, if anyone knows how to turn any up. I think they'd be insightful as to teams' thinkings in terms of putting extra weight on workouts, etc. They'd probably also be really funny -- in hindsight, of course.

Edit: Here's (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1013999/index.htm) a start, from Sports Illustrated. Pete Newell among others, was sold on him. Interesting stuff -- he profiles as the classic workout warrior.

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah, check that, I guess I'd imagine there were. I mean, I hated the guy -- not personally -- but you can find draftniks willing to back nearly any player. When you read a mock draft, do they ever actually kill a guy in there? Even the ones with shakiest games have "potential." Still though, I would tend to think that even without the benefit of hindsight, in such a loaded draft, you can make the right choice there. I'm sure there was a debate back then, because people didn't know what they were doing. I mean, Pierce fell to No. 10. Who among us -- even on draft night, without the benefit of hindsight -- didn't think he'd make nine teams feel very foolish? NBA teams were more into potential and obviously had not yet learned their lesson about drafting solely for size at that point. That said, I know Olowokandi had the one monster year at Pacific, and lord knows he had the pedigree. ... Wasn't he a croquet player in England before coming here, or something like that? Those usually become excellent NBA basketball players.

It probably helped him in a couple of ways to play in the Big West; at 7-foot-1 he put up ridiculous numbers, and probably nobody really watched him play a whole lot. I'll admit, I hadn't seen him play one time before that draft, I just knew he was tall and from a small conference. Then I watched him play in the NBA and it was laughable -- at least compared to what they could have had. He did have a couple of serviceable seasons stats-wise, though it took a few years to get there and didn't last long.

Is it hindsight in this case? You'd have to take my word that it's not, or you don't, either way. I remember watching the draft with friends and thinking it was an absolute joke of a pick. I had just watched Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison live and in person, and figured they'd both be stars. Bibby seemed a no-brainer NBA point guard; he was being compared to Jason Kidd back then. I loved Pierce. (I admit to knowing next to nothing about Nowitzki.) Of course, I also bought into everyone's hype that Kwame Brown had the potential to be the next Garnett. To rehash a tired meme, the draft is most certainly a crapshoot. But when you pass on Carter, Jamison and Pierce -- and even Bibby -- your'e not doing it right, even without a time machine or whatever.

My recollection (may not be the best) was that Olowokandi was seen as a legitimate choice for #1 overall. Like you, I had never seen him play and I hadn't even heard of him until the lead up to the draft, where I was surprised that someone I hadn't heard of could be #1. If I remember correctly, Pierce fell do to some injury concerns or something other than his playing ability, which would have warranted a much higher pick. I also seem to recall Olowokandi being spectacular in workouts and after the success that previously unknown Pippen was having in the pros, that may have helped the Kandi man. Dirk Nowitzki looks like the obvious choice now, but he certainly was not at the time, as far as I remember. I agree that Carter, Jamison and Pierce (and LaFrentz) were the more proven commodities at the time, but as we all know (especially when thinking about where Nolan and Kyle seem to be projected) the pros draft on potential and potential is not always realized.

[monkey]

I'm amazed the name Shawn Bradley hasn't come up yet. #2 overall pick. 7'6" and supposedly a three point shooter. He averaged just ove 8 ppg for his career to go with a mere 6.3 rpg (and notably, in not one season did he average even 9 boards a game, this from a guy who is 7'6"). 45.7% career FG from the field is acceptable as a guard - he was a center (and the 3's he could allegedly shoot? Hit four for his career - out of 39 attempts - slightly over 10%).

Ok being 7'6" he stuck around the league for a while (over 10 years). But he was never any good.

He was picked immediately before Penny Hardaway, Jamal Mashburn, Isiaih Rider. Vin Baker and Allan Houston got picked a little later, with Sam Cassell later in the round.

[JasonEvans]

You want a bust, look at the entire 2000 draft. It is full of bad or, at best, mediocre players. I mean, here are the first 13 picks--


Kenyon Martin - a decent NBA player, but not nearly what you normally get from a #1 pick
Stromile Swift - yup, he was the #2 pick in the draft
Darius Miles - actually started out pretty well as a rookie, but never seemed to get much better
Marcus Fizer - lasted just 6 seasons in the league
Mike Miller - a decent player, but not with the #5 pick
Derrmarr Johnson - the Hawks again squander a high draft pick on a worthless player
Chris Mihm - A career role player, with the #7 pick in the draft
Jamal Crawford - easily the best pick so far, NBA 6th man of the year once and a great pure scorer
Joel Przybilla - career scoring average, 4.0 ppg
Keyon Dooliing - a career backup player
Jerome Moiso - lasted just 5 seasons in the league, never played much
Etan Thomas - a career 5 ppg scorer
Courtney Alexander - a mega-scorer in college, lasted less than 5 years in the NBA
Mateen Cleaves - won an NCAA championship, barely played in the NBA
Jason Collier - 5 NBA seasons and then he was done


--Jason "the best player in that draft -- Michael Redd, who went in the middle opf the 2nd round" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Marcus Fizer - lasted just 6 seasons in the league.

Just to be fair...I would think that 6 years in the NBA is pretty decent. Sure, you would hope that your top draft pick would last over a decade, but given that we are discussing so many "busts" obviously that career length isn't too common. In fact, the average career of an NBA player is less than 5 years.


The average NBA player at the start of the 2010-11 season was 26.77 years old and had 4.84 years of NBA experience.

http://rpiratings.com/NBA.html
By the way, check out the opening sentence of that article, it's fun!

[Starter]

Just to be fair...I would think that 6 years in the NBA is pretty decent. Sure, you would hope that your top draft pick would last over a decade, but given that we are discussing so many "busts" obviously that career length isn't too common. In fact, the average career of an NBA player is less than 5 years.

http://rpiratings.com/NBA.html
By the way, check out the opening sentence of that article, it's fun!

Man, that 2000 draft was a disaster. Fizer's rookie deal spanned four years, so he had at least that as a head start. The more egregious part of the Fizer pick is that the Bulls already had Elton Brand, but as Jason laid out, there weren't very many options. Crawford was one, but they ended up with him anyway. Mike Miller, I guess?

Off-topic, if this is of interest, I wrote something (http://www.sportsangle.com/2010/06/rearview-mirror-keeping-elton-brand-updated-at-espn-zone/) on the Fizer pick last year. I actually ran into Elton Brand that day, and he was not happy.

[JasonEvans]

Just to be fair...I would think that 6 years in the NBA is pretty decent. Sure, you would hope that your top draft pick would last over a decade, but given that we are discussing so many "busts" obviously that career length isn't too common. In fact, the average career of an NBA player is less than 5 years.

http://rpiratings.com/NBA.html
By the way, check out the opening sentence of that article, it's fun!

Yeah, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a #4 pick who only lasted 6 years.

[rsvman]

Ohmygod... I just finished the list. Among the most overrated players in NBA history he cites Patrick Ewing, Lebron James, Karl Malone, and Kevin McHale.

I am really worried that some of the stupid that infects that article has worn off on me as a result of me reading it. Seriously, I very well may be dumber because I read that list!! How dare you do that to me!!!?! I am already dumb enough without having to add that mindless list to my short-term (very short-term, I hope) memory!!

Wow... just horrible.

-Jason "serves me right for clicking on a Bleacher Report link" Evans

I didn't click on the link, but if the guy really said that, I'd argue that Bleacher Report is a step BELOW posting on a message board. Kevin McHale and Karl Malone are arguably 2 of the 5 best power forwards of all time. Anybody who puts McHale's name on a list of "overrated" players is not old enough to have seen him play and didn't bother to do any semblance of research. Sheesh!

[tommy]

Yeah, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a #4 pick who only lasted 6 years.

Hard-pressed? Try unable!

Over the last 25 years, there have been no #4 overall picks who did not play at least six years in the league. The quickest out was Iowa State's Marcus Fizer, picked #4 in 2000, who played four years for the Bulls, hurt his knee, then got selected by the expansion Bobcats, didn't make the team, then bounced around signing for short stints with a few other teams, culminating in 2006. So even he qualifies as having played in parts of six seasons.

Even guys who seem like they were washouts, like Reggie Williams and Chris Morris, played way longer than six years. It was 10 for Reggie and 11 years in the league for Morris.

[tommy]

You want a bust, look at the entire 2000 draft. It is full of bad or, at best, mediocre players. I mean, here are the first 13 picks--


Kenyon Martin - a decent NBA player, but not nearly what you normally get from a #1 pick
Stromile Swift - yup, he was the #2 pick in the draft
Darius Miles - actually started out pretty well as a rookie, but never seemed to get much better
Marcus Fizer - lasted just 6 seasons in the league
Mike Miller - a decent player, but not with the #5 pick
Derrmarr Johnson - the Hawks again squander a high draft pick on a worthless player
Chris Mihm - A career role player, with the #7 pick in the draft
Jamal Crawford - easily the best pick so far, NBA 6th man of the year once and a great pure scorer
Joel Przybilla - career scoring average, 4.0 ppg
Keyon Dooliing - a career backup player
Jerome Moiso - lasted just 5 seasons in the league, never played much
Etan Thomas - a career 5 ppg scorer
Courtney Alexander - a mega-scorer in college, lasted less than 5 years in the NBA
Mateen Cleaves - won an NCAA championship, barely played in the NBA
Jason Collier - 5 NBA seasons and then he was done


--Jason "the best player in that draft -- Michael Redd, who went in the middle opf the 2nd round" Evans

What about 1989? Pretty bad too. Here are the top 13 picks from that draft:

1. Pervis Ellison - "Out of Service Pervis" was just hurt almost all the time
2. Danny Ferry - Developed as a niche 3 point shooter but never a real impact player
3. Sean Elliott - Solid starter, averaged 20 ppg one year, career avg of 14. Fine.
4. Glen Rice- Best of the top 13, averaged 18 ppg over a 15 year career. Had an All-Star MVP.
5. J.R. Reid - career averages of 8 points and 5 rebounds. Never approached realizing the potential many folks thought he had.
6. Stacey King - career averages of 6 points and 3 rebounds. Bench guy.
7. George McCloud - early washout but got a second chance and did OK as a shooter off the bench for some teams
8. Randy White - washed out in 5 years in the league. The supposed "next Karl Malone" never averaged even 10 ppg.
9. Tom Hammonds - somehow stuck around for 12 years, but career average was 5 ppg
10. Pooh Richardson - averaged 11 ppg and 6.5 assists over 10 years. Never close to one of the best in the league at the point.
11. Nick Anderson - pretty decent career playing alongside Shaq and Penny, but never recovered from his free throw shooting debacle in the finals against Houston.
12. Mookie Blaylock - pretty good, but not great point guard. Excellent hands on defense, decent distributor, but never led a very good team.
13. Michael Smith - out of the league in two years. Good color commentator for the Clippers, though.

What makes this draft better, though, than 2000 is that it had a few guys taken lower who were real good players. Tim Hardaway at 14, Sean Kemp at 17, Vlade down at 26. And Uncle Cliffie Robinson in the 2nd round at 36. Still, compared to the great majority of other drafts, this one was pretty stanky.

[UrinalCake]

I don't think anyone's mentioned Haseem Thabeet - #2 overall pick, went immediately to the D-League (which is rare, usually a top 3-5 pick gets to start no matter what), I think he's made it back to the NBA but isn't doing much.

Funny how many of these busts are big men. You'd think it would be the other way around, as guards rely on a lot of intangibles that are hard to quantify, but at the same time bigs take longer to develop and they tend to get drafted just for being big.

[tommy]

No negative rep, BUT:

http://www.nba.com/history/draft_top13.html

When you get down to picks 4+ you start to see the misses increase.

I've analyzed the last 25 years of NBA drafts, or at least the first 30 picks of each of those drafts, so 750 selections. Where you start to see the drop-off is after the #5 or at latest #6 pick.

I placed each of the 750 players into one of the following categories, and put the whole thing onto an Excel:
1. Hall of Famer (either already enshrined or in my mind very likely to be a HOF'er -- guys like Shaq, Tim Duncan, Kobe, LeBron, Steve Nash, Dirk, and a few others. Nobody who's too young to tell.)

2. All-Star, meaning a non-HOF'er but who has played in at least one all-star game.
3. Starter. Not an All-Star, but a solid NBA starter.
4. What I call a "pension man." Meaning a rotation guy, a guy good enough to hang around the league for a number of years, reputation as a decent player for awhile. I know, very subjective, but when you're going over this many guys, you've just got to make some calls!
5. Marginal. Guys who were/are in the league for a few years, but didn't have or haven't had much impact, and for the younger guys don't look likely to. Again, very subjective I know.
6. Washouts.

I also put a few guys down as "injured" -- like Len Bias, J-Will, Hurley, DeJuan Wagner, and a few others.

Here are my "findings":
Of the 13 Hall of Famers selected since in drafts since 1986, 5 were #1 picks, 3 were #5 picks, one was a 9, one was a 10, one a 13 (Kobe), one a 15 (Nash), and one a 27 (that was Rodman.) So 8 of the 13 were top 5 picks.

Of the 100 All-Stars, 12 were #1 picks, 8 were #2's, 12 were #3's, 8 were #4's, 7 were #5's, 6 were #6's, and then the numbers really drop off from there. 53 of the 100 were top 6 selections. Keep in mind these don't count the Hall of Famers. I have guys in the "All-Star" category who have made All-Star teams but not the Hall of Fame. But if you add the numbers for HOF'ers plus the numbers for All-Stars, you'd have 113 guys. 61 of the 113 were top 6 picks.

The line between Starters and Pension Men is a little blurry, and I'm not sure how useful the data is given how subjective my assignment of labels to those guys is. But the numbers for starters drop off after the #13 pick. Meaning that guys drafted later than #13 have a much reduced likelihood of becoming solid starters in the league, statistically speaking.

On the flip side, of the 106 players whose careers I evaluated as "marginal," only 18 were top 7 selections. The numbers get bigger starting at draft position #8, and stay pretty steady from there on down.

Then there are the total busts, who I labeled as "washouts." Striking is the sheer number of them -- 262 in the last 25 years. And that really undercounts, because a number of young guys still hanging around in the league will be gone this coming year or next and would rightfully be moved into this category. But anyway, of the 262 that I felt comfortable labeling as "washouts," only 6 were top 5 picks (Washburn, Dennis Hopson, Marcus Fizer, Tsikishtivili, and Adam Morrison) and then the numbers start to grow. They are moderately larger for selections 6 through 13, and then starting at 14 they get bigger, and then bigger again at 25.

I also counted the number of guys drafted below #30 who went on to become All-Stars. In the last 25 years, that number is 7. 7 of 750 players. Which makes it sound like it would bode a heck of a lot better for Kyle and Nolan if they got drafted late in the first round than early in the second, but not really. The number of guys drafted between 25 and 30 over the last 25 years who made an All-Star team is also 7.

So I know my methods are utterly pick-apart-able on a number of fronts, but thought, even given the subjectivity of the categorization I did, it would still be interesting to see where the dropoffs are in the draft as well as the sheer numbers of utter washouts. I've got all the numbers on a spreadsheet if anyone's interested!

[monkey]

I've analyzed the last 25 years of NBA drafts, or at least the first 30 picks of each of those drafts, so 750 selections. Where you start to see the drop-off is after the #5 or at latest #6 pick.

5. Marginal. Guys who were/are in the league for a few years, but didn't have or haven't had much impact, and for the younger guys don't look likely to. Again, very subjective I know.
6. Washouts.



Really interesting tommy - what's the difference, to you, between the marginal guys and the washouts? Is a marginal guy the big guy off the bench that averages a couple points a game but somehow lasts a decade?

Who, besides Boozer, were the 7 all stars picked in the second round? I can think of Arenas and maybe Van Exel off the top of my head.

What was Shane categorized as? Starter?

[tommy]

Really interesting tommy - what's the difference, to you, between the marginal guys and the washouts? Is a marginal guy the big guy off the bench that averages a couple points a game but somehow lasts a decade?

Who, besides Boozer, were the 7 all stars picked in the second round? I can think of Arenas and maybe Van Exel off the top of my head.

What was Shane categorized as? Starter?

Yeah, to me a marginal guy is a guy who at least hung around for awhile, stayed in the league, maybe bounced around, but not a real impact guy, doesn't have a full length career. Like Brandan Wright, for example. A washout is a guy like Will Avery (and a ton of European draftees) who were just out of the league in 2-3 years, or less.

I categorized Shane as a starter, though he hasn't always been one, and he could've also been labeled a pension man.

As to the second round All-Stars, I messed up. Probably due to the fact that I did this at almost midnight last night when I should've been asleep. But there have actually been 14 guys drafted in the second round (or not at all) in the 25 years I looked at that have gone on to play in at least one all-star game, not just 7 guys.

The 14 are: (with draft year)

1986 - Kevin Duckworth, Jeff Hornacek
1989 - Clifford Robinson
1990 - Antonio Davis, Cedric Ceballos
1993 - Nick Van Exel
1998 - Rashard Lewis, Brad Miller (undrafted)
1999 - Manu Ginobili
2000 - Michael Redd
2001 - Gilbert Arenas and Mehmet Okur
2002 - Carlos Boozer
2003 - Mo Williams

Nobody since the 2003 draft.

[JasonEvans]

Fabulous research, tommy! is it possible for you to post the spreadsheet for all of us to peruse? Also, I have given you rep points recently so I could not give you points for this post but I urge others to give tommy pitchfork points! This is the kind of stuff that deserves a rep bump!

-Jason

[jimsumner]

Yeah, to me a marginal guy is a guy who at least hung around for awhile, stayed in the league, maybe bounced around, but not a real impact guy, doesn't have a full length career. Like Brandan Wright, for example. A washout is a guy like Will Avery (and a ton of European draftees) who were just out of the league in 2-3 years, or less.

I categorized Shane as a starter, though he hasn't always been one, and he could've also been labeled a pension man.

As to the second round All-Stars, I messed up. Probably due to the fact that I did this at almost midnight last night when I should've been asleep. But there have actually been 14 guys drafted in the second round (or not at all) in the 25 years I looked at that have gone on to play in at least one all-star game, not just 7 guys.

The 14 are: (with draft year)

1986 - Kevin Duckworth, Jeff Hornacek
1989 - Clifford Robinson
1990 - Antonio Davis, Cedric Ceballos
1993 - Nick Van Exel
1998 - Rashard Lewis, Brad Miller (undrafted)
1999 - Manu Ginobili
2000 - Michael Redd
2001 - Gilbert Arenas and Mehmet Okur
2002 - Carlos Boozer
2003 - Mo Williams

Nobody since the 2003 draft.

Mark Price was a second-round pick in 1986.

[JasonEvans]

As to the second round All-Stars, I messed up. Probably due to the fact that I did this at almost midnight last night when I should've been asleep. But there have actually been 14 guys drafted in the second round (or not at all) in the 25 years I looked at that have gone on to play in at least one all-star game, not just 7 guys.

The 14 are: (with draft year)

1986 - Kevin Duckworth, Jeff Hornacek
1989 - Clifford Robinson
1990 - Antonio Davis, Cedric Ceballos
1993 - Nick Van Exel
1998 - Rashard Lewis, Brad Miller (undrafted)
1999 - Manu Ginobili
2000 - Michael Redd
2001 - Gilbert Arenas and Mehmet Okur
2002 - Carlos Boozer
2003 - Mo Williams

Nobody since the 2003 draft.

Interesting that there has not been one since 2003, an 8 year gap, which is longer than any gap in previous history. Still, part of that may be that 2nd rounders from the past few years are still waiting to develop into All-stars.

That said, there are not many 2nd rounders having much of an impact in the NBA right now from the past few years. The guys with the best shots at being future All-stars, in my mind, would be Dejaun Blair (once Timmy D retires), Mario Chalmers (who could go unguarded as everyone pays attention to Wade and Bron-bron), and perhaps Omer Asik (who showed me some potential for the Bulls in the playoffs).

-Jason "again, fabulous research!" Evans

[tommy]

Mark Price was a second-round pick in 1986.

True. But he was the 25th overall pick. I had noticed that he and Rodman were both second rounders that year (Rodman was 27th), but because more recent drafts have 30 first round selections, I kind of considered for my purposes that picks 1 through 30 were "first round" and #31 began the second. Or maybe I was just really tired when I was doing this and just messed it up!

[gwlaw99]

As a Sixers fan, I will throw in Shawn Bradley.

[tommy]

Fabulous research, tommy! is it possible for you to post the spreadsheet for all of us to peruse? Also, I have given you rep points recently so I could not give you points for this post but I urge others to give tommy pitchfork points! This is the kind of stuff that deserves a rep bump!

-Jason

Thanks Jason. Appreciate it. I know my categorizing of guys is so subjective, and many would I'm sure disagree with some of them, but what can you do?

I'm happy to post the Excel spreadsheet. But how to do it on the board?


Interesting that there has not been one since 2003, an 8 year gap, which is longer than any gap in previous history. Still, part of that may be that 2nd rounders from the past few years are still waiting to develop into All-stars.

That said, there are not many 2nd rounders having much of an impact in the NBA right now from the past few years. The guys with the best shots at being future All-stars, in my mind, would be Dejaun Blair (once Timmy D retires), Mario Chalmers (who could go unguarded as everyone pays attention to Wade and Bron-bron), and perhaps Omer Asik (who showed me some potential for the Bulls in the playoffs).

-Jason "again, fabulous research!" Evans

I thought that 8 year gap was interesting too. I took from it the possibility that the drafting is getting more sophisticated, so that guys with real All-Star potential are not getting "missed" and falling to the second round like they used to.

Another set of data that is easily gleaned from the spreadsheet is the relative strengths and weaknesses of each year's draft. That has been discussed in a couple of different threads already. Conventional wisdom states that the '96, '99, and '03 drafts were three of the strongest in modern times. Sure enough, the '96 draft yielded 4 Hall of Famers and 5 other All-Stars in the first round; the '99 draft yielded 8 All-Stars, and the '03 had 1 HOF'er (projected LeBron) and 6 other All-Stars.

On the other end of the spectrum, the '86, 2000, and 2006 drafts are considered to be the worst by may observers. The numbers back up these perceptions. The '86 draft's first round ended up producing just 1 HOF'er and 2 All-Stars; the 2000 produced no HOF'ers and just 2 All-Stars, and the 2006 draft, while guys can still develop and achieve, of course, at this point appears to have no HOF'ers and only 2 All-Stars. Not too hot.

By the way, I have the '91 first round as having the most Washouts, with 15. Upon looking closer at all the names, I may have unfairly put one or two guys in that category, who rightfully belong as "Marginals." I'm sure there are a lot of guys that upon further reflection I would move up or down one category, especially considering the lines between the categories -- other than All-Stars and HOF'ers of course, are blurry.

[bdeviled11]

He was the 2nd overall pick in 2001, and has pretty much been labeled a bust ever since. What if he was taken 30th overall? What would the perception of him be? To me it really isn't fair to label players as "busts", they don't have any control where they are taken.

To me, teams and talent evaluators should be taken to task much more than the players. I'd like to see a list of the best drafting teams in the NBA, and off the top of my head, historically, the Utah Jazz, and San Antonio Spurs have been pretty wise in their draft picks. So I did a quick google search.

Then I found this link with some somewhat surprising results.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

The Milwaukee Bucks are the best drafters? Crazy.

Take a look at this link too:

http://www.82games.com/starsandbusts.htm

They have some really surprising results.

[jimsumner]

True. But he was the 25th overall pick. I had noticed that he and Rodman were both second rounders that year (Rodman was 27th), but because more recent drafts have 30 first round selections, I kind of considered for my purposes that picks 1 through 30 were "first round" and #31 began the second. Or maybe I was just really tired when I was doing this and just messed it up!

The '86 draft is fascinating. The first-round was a train wreck. Drugs derailed the careers of Len Bias (2), Chris Washburn (3), William Bedford (6), Roy Tarpley (7) and Pearl Washington (13). John Williams (12) ate himself out of the league. Brad Daugherty (1) was an all-star but chronic back problems shortened his career. Johnny Dawkins (10) never got back all of his quickness following a knee injury, while Mark Alarie (18) suffered a career-ending injury. Others-Walter Berry, Maurice Martin, Ken Barlow--just weren't that good.

But look at what happened after the first round. Mark Price, Dennis Rodman, Nate McMillan, Johnny Newman, Kevin Duckworth, Jeff Hornacek, Drazen Petrovic. Even afterthoughts like Andre Turner or Kenny Gattison stuck around longer than many of the glamour guys.

A curious draft. I trust more than a few front-office types had their held to the fire for this one.

[darjum]

The '86 draft is fascinating. The first-round was a train wreck. Drugs derailed the careers of Len Bias (2), Chris Washburn (3), William Bedford (6), Roy Tarpley (7) and Pearl Washington (13). John Williams (12) ate himself out of the league. Brad Daugherty (1) was an all-star but chronic back problems shortened his career. Johnny Dawkins (10) never got back all of his quickness following a knee injury, while Mark Alarie (18) suffered a career-ending injury. Others-Walter Berry, Maurice Martin, Ken Barlow--just weren't that good.

But look at what happened after the first round. Mark Price, Dennis Rodman, Nate McMillan, Johnny Newman, Kevin Duckworth, Jeff Hornacek, Drazen Petrovic. Even afterthoughts like Andre Turner or Kenny Gattison stuck around longer than many of the glamour guys.

A curious draft. I trust more than a few front-office types had their held to the fire for this one.

I still believe that Roy Tarpley is one of the most physically dominate players I ever watched play, had drugs not have consumed his career the possibilities were endless. Such a shame when people can't meet their potential based on personal demons. But in the end he is a bust...

[FourWins]

I'm happy to post the Excel spreadsheet. But how to do it on the board?


At docs.google.com, you can upload and share the file :)

---

[hq2]

That '86 draft was kind of weird. However, I don't think anyone could have predicted that that many top players would burn out. Also, if you examine the second round, most of those players had clear deficiencies that made them questionable NBA players, which each of them somehow managed to overcome. You can't really fault the front offices for how they drafted.

[uh_no]

I don't think anyone's mentioned Haseem Thabeet - #2 overall pick, went immediately to the D-League (which is rare, usually a top 3-5 pick gets to start no matter what), I think he's made it back to the NBA but isn't doing much.

Funny how many of these busts are big men. You'd think it would be the other way around, as guards rely on a lot of intangibles that are hard to quantify, but at the same time bigs take longer to develop and they tend to get drafted just for being big.

I was going to mention him. He was always a bit of a head case at Uconn, and never really had an offensive skill set (what he did have was size and length....which allowed him to pretty much do whatever)....he was of course the best defender in the country while he was in school, but never did well against guys stronger than him...the guys at ND and Pitt beat him up a couple times....I think he's the classic come from modest background, get NBA paycheck, pack it in kind of guy (to his credit he's very smart though...)...shame he didn't have a shot at Hans-bro in the title game

[Starter]

Morning everyone -- pumped for one of the top 5 coolest days on the basketball calendar.

Thabeet is definitely the outcome I'd fear if I used a high pick on Biyombo, but he did get a Green Room invite today. So he's expected to go in the lottery, at least.

[uh_no]

Morning everyone -- pumped for one of the top 5 coolest days on the basketball calendar.


Yeah! if we put 3 guys in the draft it could be the greatest day in Duke Basketball history!!!

[NSDukeFan]

Morning everyone -- pumped for one of the top 5 coolest days on the basketball calendar.

Thabeet is definitely the outcome I'd fear if I used a high pick on Biyombo, but he did get a Green Room invite today. So he's expected to go in the lottery, at least.

I am not the NBA fan you are, so I would have to put Duke exhibition season start, Duke regular season start, Duke-OSU (Big Ten Challenge), Duke pre-season tournament (Maui this year), Duke's first ACC game, both Duke-UNC games, Duke's first ACC road game, (if different than first ACC game) and every subsequent one if they don't win their first, other key ACC games, ACC tournament time, NCAA tournament time, start of NBA season, start of NBA playoffs and many playoff days ahead of this as a coolest day on the basketball calendar, but that is my biased, Duke and college-centric opinion.

I am interested in the draft, and especially what happens to Kyrie, Kyle and Nolan.