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Bluedog
05-24-2011, 10:42 AM
Great article from Clint Jackson on what the staff sees as each player's strengths and what they want them to work on over the summer. Right from Coach Collins' mouth:

http://www.duke.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1224763

The staff expects Curry, Kelly, and Miles to be vocal leaders next season. Want Andre to be constantly moving and coming off screens; and to get in shape a la JJ. They also hope that Josh makes a jump over the offseason similar to what Ryan did last summer.

Kedsy
05-24-2011, 11:07 AM
Most interesting quote in the article (at least to me):


The next step for Andre is to become an impact player. He has all the tools to become a star player on the college level and one of our leading scorers.

First of all, if that's how the staff feel about him, it should probably put to rest the talk of one of the freshman starting ahead of him, at least to start the year. But more importantly, if Andre can make that leap (as the staff obviously feels he can), it would make us unquestionably a top five team.

If Andre is a star-quality player who the other team has to assign one of their best defenders, how can they hope to also defend Austin and Seth? Especially if Mason becomes the consistent star Coach Collins believes he will be, meriting a double-team inside. And the fact that our 5 through 12 (Ryan, Miles, Mike G, Alex, Quinn, Tyler, Josh, and Marshall) is probably a top 25 caliber rotation by itself.

I realize I'm probably getting a bit ahead of myself, but if Coach Collins believes the logical next step is for Andre to be an impact player, I'm feeling pretty good.

CDu
05-24-2011, 11:12 AM
Most interesting quote in the article (at least to me):



First of all, if that's how the staff feel about him, it should probably put to rest the talk of one of the freshman starting ahead of him, at least to start the year. But more importantly, if Andre can make that leap (as the staff obviously feels he can), it would make us unquestionably a top five team.

If Andre is a star-quality player who the other team has to assign one of their best defenders, how can they hope to also defend Austin and Seth? Especially if Mason becomes the consistent star Coach Collins believes he will be, meriting a double-team inside. And the fact that our 5 through 12 (Ryan, Miles, Mike G, Alex, Quinn, Tyler, Josh, and Marshall) is probably a top 25 caliber rotation by itself.

I realize I'm probably getting a bit ahead of myself, but if Coach Collins believes the logical next step is for Andre to be an impact player, I'm feeling pretty good.

I agree that the next logical step for Dawkins is to become an impact player. The question is whether he'll make that jump. But if he does (and I think that means getting better both at playing on and off the ball), it will make a great difference on the offense. He can still be useful as a spot shooter, but there's so much more that he could do with the right development.

NSDukeFan
05-24-2011, 11:26 AM
Great article from Clint Jackson on what the staff sees as each player's strengths and what they want them to work on over the summer. Right from Coach Collins' mouth:

http://www.duke.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1224763

The staff expects Curry, Kelly, and Miles to be vocal leaders next season. Want Andre to be constantly moving and coming off screens; and to get in shape a la JJ. They also hope that Josh makes a jump over the offseason similar to what Ryan did last summer.

Thanks for sharing this. I would add that Coach Collins also has great expectations for Mason as
one of our primary leaders and go-to guys as well as a top post player in the country for next year.

magjayran
05-24-2011, 11:58 AM
I've thought since Dawkins was a freshman that in order for him to be most effective we were gonna need to plays run for him that involved him moving around a ton off the ball. I'm not saying that we need to run quite as many as we ran for JJ but it's something that needs to happen for Dre unless his ball handling skills improve dramatically.

roywhite
05-24-2011, 12:43 PM
First of all, if that's how the staff feel about him, it should probably put to rest the talk of one of the freshman starting ahead of him, at least to start the year. But more importantly, if Andre can make that leap (as the staff obviously feels he can), it would make us unquestionably a top five team.

If Andre is a star-quality player who the other team has to assign one of their best defenders, how can they hope to also defend Austin and Seth? Especially if Mason becomes the consistent star Coach Collins believes he will be, meriting a double-team inside. And the fact that our 5 through 12 (Ryan, Miles, Mike G, Alex, Quinn, Tyler, Josh, and Marshall) is probably a top 25 caliber rotation by itself.

I realize I'm probably getting a bit ahead of myself, but if Coach Collins believes the logical next step is for Andre to be an impact player, I'm feeling pretty good.


I agree it is encouraging to hear these comments about Andre. The underlying theme of these evaluations is the key role the rising juniors will need to play, and that they are capable of doing just that.

My general concern is not about scoring potential, which I think is there in good measure. I have questions about ball handling:
Who is the primary ball handler...Seth, Austin, eventually Quinn?
Without someone emerging as the primary ball handler, can ball handling by committee work well?

And rebounding:
Aside from Mason, who gets rebounds?
Does a small lineup hurt us significantly on the boards?

There's a lot to sort out, but certainly a lot to like about this team's potential.

DeBlueDevil
05-24-2011, 12:45 PM
I will say lately when thinking of our team next year and the youth we'll have and just some of the question marks we have with leadership and stuff and then with other teams around the country being tough as well not to mention UNC, I just haven't felt that confident about how good we'll be.

But after reading that article and some of the many valid points coach collins makes about our players I just got a big confidence boost and although next year may not be a NC year, we def will be able to compete at a high level with the top programs in the country and should be in the hunt if everyone improves in the areas coach collins spoke about, as well as incoming freshman make a good impact.

But with our program...should I really be that suprised? haha Great to be a Duke fan.

loran16
05-24-2011, 01:07 PM
. Want Andre to be constantly moving and coming off screens; and to get in shape a la JJ.

This is a big one here. Andre's problem on offense last year was that basically...he just stood around and waited for his shot. He was entirely a shooter. He didn't assist on shots (no seriously, his assist rate is lower than our big men last year), and he basically relied upon others to get him looks.

Better teams wouldn't leave him open. He needs to learn to move to create his shot, and to help others a bit.

sagegrouse
05-24-2011, 01:39 PM
This is a big one here. Andre's problem on offense last year was that basically...he just stood around and waited for his shot. He was entirely a shooter. He didn't assist on shots (no seriously, his assist rate is lower than our big men last year), and he basically relied upon others to get him looks.

Better teams wouldn't leave him open. He needs to learn to move to create his shot, and to help others a bit.

I tend to agree with you in being frustrated that Andre was not moving all over the court a la JJ. But, as in the case when our "bigs" do those ridiculous moves outside to defend a smaller perimeter player, I can't tell if this is Andre's lack of initiative or if the coaches and the offense are dictating his position on the court.

sagegrouse

yancem
05-24-2011, 02:01 PM
I tend to agree with you in being frustrated that Andre was not moving all over the court a la JJ. But, as in the case when our "bigs" do those ridiculous moves outside to defend a smaller perimeter player, I can't tell if this is Andre's lack of initiative or if the coaches and the offense are dictating his position on the court.

sagegrouse

That's always been my question with Dawkins; was he standing in the corner because that is what the coaches told him to do or because he lazy/confused as to what to do/frustrated the the ball never came his way. My general feeling is that if Dawkins wasn't doing what the coaches were telling him, then he wouldn't be in the game. But he has gone through a couple of extended bench stretches so maybe that is why. I just feel that he is such a good talent and could contribute so much to the team if he put it all together. He seems to love Duke and roots hard for the team but sometimes you can see frustration in his face and he seems to disengage from the game. I wonder if a quick video of his facial expressions and body language would help him like it did Hurley?

Right now I think that the only thing stopping him from being as good as Redick is himself. He has just as pretty of a shot, close to the same range, is a better defender (at least at this stage of his career) and has better size and athletic ability. The key minuses when compared to Redick are work ethic and take no prisoners attitude.

Indoor66
05-24-2011, 02:19 PM
That's always been my question with Dawkins; was he standing in the corner because that is what the coaches told him to do or because he lazy/confused as to what to do/frustrated the the ball never came his way. My general feeling is that if Dawkins wasn't doing what the coaches were telling him, then he wouldn't be in the game. But he has gone through a couple of extended bench stretches so maybe that is why. I just feel that he is such a good talent and could contribute so much to the team if he put it all together. He seems to love Duke and roots hard for the team but sometimes you can see frustration in his face and he seems to disengage from the game. I wonder if a quick video of his facial expressions and body language would help him like it did Hurley?

Right now I think that the only thing stopping him from being as good as Redick is himself. He has just as pretty of a shot, close to the same range, is a better defender (at least at this stage of his career) and has better size and athletic ability. The key minuses when compared to Redick are work ethic and take no prisoners attitude.

I have to agree, yancem. If he was supposed to move without the ball and didn't, he would have been sitting.

Last years offense did not have room for Andre to run around like JJ did. It would have clogged the middle for Nolan.

I think Andre did as instructed. This year will be different - with different offensive intent and purpose.

BD80
05-24-2011, 02:34 PM
Most interesting quote in the article (at least to me):


The next step for Andre is to become an impact player. He has all the tools to become a star player on the college level and one of our leading scorers.

First of all, if that's how the staff feel about him, it should probably put to rest the talk of one of the freshman starting ahead of him, at least to start the year. But more importantly, if Andre can make that leap (as the staff obviously feels he can), it would make us unquestionably a top five team.

If Andre is a star-quality player who the other team has to assign one of their best defenders, how can they hope to also defend Austin and Seth? Especially if Mason becomes the consistent star Coach Collins believes he will be, meriting a double-team inside. And the fact that our 5 through 12 (Ryan, Miles, Mike G, Alex, Quinn, Tyler, Josh, and Marshall) is probably a top 25 caliber rotation by itself.

I realize I'm probably getting a bit ahead of myself, but if Coach Collins believes the logical next step is for Andre to be an impact player, I'm feeling pretty good.

Whoa there horsey, I said WHOA!

Didn't the staff talk about a similar leap by Mason last year? He improved, but he didn't rise to the level discussed for him last year or for Andre next year.

Mason MUST be an impact player this year for us to be "successful" as we are accustomed to. Austin is expected to be an impact player. It is difficult for there to be three players to be impact players on the offensive end.

My wish is for Dre to become an impact player on the defensive end. I also have hopes for our post play with three upperclasmen (a wish similar to 2 years ago). With Austin and Mason getting the most shots, and Seth and Dre spotting up, I don't think offense will be an issue.

Kedsy
05-24-2011, 02:55 PM
Whoa there horsey, I said WHOA!

Didn't the staff talk about a similar leap by Mason last year? He improved, but he didn't rise to the level discussed for him last year or for Andre next year.

Mason MUST be an impact player this year for us to be "successful" as we are accustomed to. Austin is expected to be an impact player. It is difficult for there to be three players to be impact players on the offensive end.

My wish is for Dre to become an impact player on the defensive end. I also have hopes for our post play with three upperclasmen (a wish similar to 2 years ago). With Austin and Mason getting the most shots, and Seth and Dre spotting up, I don't think offense will be an issue.

I don't remember how much of a leap the staff predicted for Mason. I do remember Coach Collins saying Nolan would be leaps and bounds better than even his junior year performance, and he was right.

I'd also point out that other than the fact that Mason didn't take many shots (only 5 per game), his numbers were pretty darn good in 2010-11. If the team had gone to him more and he'd taken 10 shots a game, no more efficiently than the 5 shots he did take, he would have gone something like 14 and 8 (with good blocks, steals, and assists numbers for a big man) and probably have been 2nd team all-conference. So whatever Coach Collins said about him wasn't as far off as many of us seem to think.

As far as Andre being mostly a spot up guy next year, here's the expanded quote from Coach Collins:



The next step for Andre is to become an impact player. He has all the tools to become a star player on the college level and one of our leading scorers. He needs to become an amazingly conditioned player, ala J.J. Redick. Should be non-stop motion on the floor, coming off screens and attacking.

Which to me sounds like they want him to be a major contributor on the offensive end, not just a spot up shooter. Obviously this is a wish list sort of thing, and Andre has to put in the work to make it come true, but I don't think it's out of the question.

Now, having said all that, I completely agree with you that if Andre could become a lock-down guy on the defensive end it would be more important to the team than him scoring more. No reason he can't do both, though, is there? :cool:

CharlestonDevil
05-24-2011, 03:01 PM
Whoa there horsey, I said WHOA!

Didn't the staff talk about a similar leap by Mason last year? He improved, but he didn't rise to the level discussed for him last year or for Andre next year.

Mason MUST be an impact player this year for us to be "successful" as we are accustomed to. Austin is expected to be an impact player. It is difficult for there to be three players to be impact players on the offensive end.

My wish is for Dre to become an impact player on the defensive end. I also have hopes for our post play with three upperclasmen (a wish similar to 2 years ago). With Austin and Mason getting the most shots, and Seth and Dre spotting up, I don't think offense will be an issue.

Yes, it was actually Coach K who said when coming back from coaching the national team "I'm ready to see where the Plumlees are. See what progress they have made and if they are ready to break out like I think they are."

Maybe not an exact quote, but pretty close. If Miles would play 80% of the time the way he did in the ACC tournament that would go a looong way in taking pressure off of Mason (and Kelly). If we can get 2 of those 3 playing at the top of their game every night Duke will quickly become known for having one of the top frontcourts in the nation.

Saratoga2
05-24-2011, 04:05 PM
I agree that the next logical step for Dawkins is to become an impact player. The question is whether he'll make that jump. But if he does (and I think that means getting better both at playing on and off the ball), it will make a great difference on the offense. He can still be useful as a spot shooter, but there's so much more that he could do with the right development.

I think that Andre has had a tendency to defer to the senior players around him, especcially Nolan and also Kyle to some extent. Next year he shouldn't have that mind set as he will have become one of the experienced and capable players. Not everyone goes through this sort of thinking, but it seemed that way to me for the last two years.

RoyalBlue08
05-24-2011, 05:19 PM
I think that Andre has had a tendency to defer to the senior players around him, especcially Nolan and also Kyle to some extent. Next year he shouldn't have that mind set as he will have become one of the experienced and capable players. Not everyone goes through this sort of thinking, but it seemed that way to me for the last two years.

I agree, but also this wasn't just an Andre thing. Last year I thought the whole team would go through stretches of just standing around and deferring to Nolan and Kyle. I am very interested to see what Mason, Ryan, Seth, Andre, et al. can do now that it really is more their team.

bdeviled11
05-24-2011, 10:37 PM
I find it telling that Collins' mentioned Curry being able to guard the point guard next year. But beyond his defensive ability, does Curry have the creativity to run and recognize on the offensive end? In 09-10 Scheyer had a total of 194 assists, with Smith at 114 and Singler at 96. In 10-11 Duke's top 3: Smith 189, Curry 74, and Singler at 60 total assists. That's a pretty significant difference, and yes I know having Irving skews those numbers. But I still think the ability of other players, beside the point, to get assists will help this team tremendously.

What is even more telling is Duke had a total of 1529 (569 offensive) rebounds in 09-10, and 1399 (446 offensive) total rebounds in 10-11. So the big guys can get their points, but they are going to have to make them. Offensive rebounds lead to wins; offensive rebounds are all about desire. The Plumlees', and Kelly need the desire to offensive rebound.

Point guard will probably need to be a "glue" position for this team next year; much like what L. Thomas was for Duke, basically his entire career. In writing this I really do see the contributions Lance Thomas made for that team, in addition to a healthy Zoubek. Quite frankly what last year's team was missing was the glue guy. A guy willing to sacrifice stats, and yet still be a vocal leader, who is respected by his peers is truly a unique individual. But the two guys who have the most potential in that role happen to play the same position, Q. Cook and T. Thornton, especially if the elusive PT carrot is dangled in front of them.

Next year's team has the potential to be really special, because it consists of some highly talented newcomers (including Thornton and Hairston) while balancing that with older, but not established, "role" players. The guys who step up and prove it (WORK) are going to be the ones who actually play. Oddly enough I see that in Thornton and still question Curry.

Irrational: Yes.

In a tribute to Ric Flair, I know Curry wants to be the man, but I think Thornton can beat the man. I also wonder which Plumlee has it; it being the thing C. Laettner possessed.

COYS
05-24-2011, 11:19 PM
I find it telling that Collins' mentioned Curry being able to guard the point guard next year. But beyond his defensive ability, does Curry have the creativity to run and recognize on the offensive end? In 09-10 Scheyer had a total of 194 assists, with Smith at 114 and Singler at 96. In 10-11 Duke's top 3: Smith 189, Curry 74, and Singler at 60 total assists. That's a pretty significant difference, and yes I know having Irving skews those numbers. But I still think the ability of other players, beside the point, to get assists will help this team tremendously.

What is even more telling is Duke had a total of 1529 (569 offensive) rebounds in 09-10, and 1399 (446 offensive) total rebounds in 10-11. So the big guys can get their points, but they are going to have to make them. Offensive rebounds lead to wins; offensive rebounds are all about desire. The Plumlees', and Kelly need the desire to offensive rebound.

Point guard will probably need to be a "glue" position for this team next year; much like what L. Thomas was for Duke, basically his entire career. In writing this I really do see the contributions Lance Thomas made for that team, in addition to a healthy Zoubek. Quite frankly what last year's team was missing was the glue guy. A guy willing to sacrifice stats, and yet still be a vocal leader, who is respected by his peers is truly a unique individual. But the two guys who have the most potential in that role happen to play the same position, Q. Cook and T. Thornton, especially if the elusive PT carrot is dangled in front of them.

Next year's team has the potential to be really special, because it consists of some highly talented newcomers (including Thornton and Hairston) while balancing that with older, but not established, "role" players. The guys who step up and prove it (WORK) are going to be the ones who actually play. Oddly enough I see that in Thornton and still question Curry.

Irrational: Yes.

In a tribute to Ric Flair, I know Curry wants to be the man, but I think Thornton can beat the man. I also wonder which Plumlee has it; it being the thing C. Laettner possessed.

Curry handled the ball less than Scheyer in 09-10 and also played far more inconsistently. However, he had Scheyer-esque numbers in many ways. Seth had few turnovers, a solid if unspectacular assist rate, and shot the three ball well. While he is not a blur on the court, he does make good decisions with the ball and did a good job running the offense during the rare occurrence that Nolan was off the court for an extended period of game time. Seth's high offensive rating of 121.7 was impressive, especially considering he shot very poorly on two pointers and wasn't completely automatic from the line. By the end of last year, he had a floater working, had improved his 2 point jump shooting, and seemed to get used to the speed and physicality of ACC play. I would be very disappointed if Seth isn't able to take the next step, improve his already strong ball-handling, increase his assist rate as he is asked to handle the ball more, and see and over all spike in his already excellent offensive rating as he manages the team in the half court in a manner similar to Jon Scheyer. And for the record, I am second to Jumbo in the Scheyer FanClub. I think it unlikely that Seth is as spectacular as Jon in his senior year nor am I trying to say that they are the same players, but I think the similarities between the two will become even more apparent next season.

sagegrouse
05-25-2011, 07:30 AM
I find it telling that Collins' mentioned Curry being able to guard the point guard next year. But beyond his defensive ability, does Curry have the creativity to run and recognize on the offensive end? In 09-10 Scheyer had a total of 194 assists, with Smith at 114 and Singler at 96. In 10-11 Duke's top 3: Smith 189, Curry 74, and Singler at 60 total assists. That's a pretty significant difference, and yes I know having Irving skews those numbers. But I still think the ability of other players, beside the point, to get assists will help this team tremendously.

..............................................

Point guard will probably need to be a "glue" position for this team next year; much like what L. Thomas was for Duke, basically his entire career. In writing this I really do see the contributions Lance Thomas made for that team, in addition to a healthy Zoubek. Quite frankly what last year's team was missing was the glue guy. A guy willing to sacrifice stats, and yet still be a vocal leader, who is respected by his peers is truly a unique individual. But the two guys who have the most potential in that role happen to play the same position, Q. Cook and T. Thornton, especially if the elusive PT carrot is dangled in front of them.

Next year's team has the potential to be really special, because it consists of some highly talented newcomers (including Thornton and Hairston) while balancing that with older, but not established, "role" players. The guys who step up and prove it (WORK) are going to be the ones who actually play. Oddly enough I see that in Thornton and still question Curry.

Irrational: Yes.

In a tribute to Ric Flair, I know Curry wants to be the man, but I think Thornton can beat the man. I also wonder which Plumlee has it; it being the thing C. Laettner possessed.

I begin with the three players who started the majority of the games last year: Mason, Seth and Ryan. Those are starters and, given that we are losing one-half of our scoring from 2011, there are other places for newcomers to fill.

El Primo is Austin Rivers. While I don't count on Austin to be the leading scorer, I think he will be a starter from day one with the ability to penetrate, dish and score. This will be to the benefit of Mason, Ryan and Miles, whose scoring should increase dramatically.

But doesn't Austin's presence on the court also change the calculus around PG? I don't see Seth -- in his fourth year of college ball -- getting dislodged by Quin or Tyler, given his offense and quick hands on defense. Seth does not need to be a classic PG with Austin on the court and Tyler/Quin playing major minutes.

I also think Andre has the capability to be all-conference performer. He may not start, but I think he will get starter's minutes and score in double digits. Dre could be a reeal surprise for the Devils in 2012.

sagegrouse

roywhite
05-25-2011, 08:11 AM
El Primo is Austin Rivers. While I don't count on Austin to be the leading scorer, I think he will be a starter from day one with the ability to penetrate, dish and score. This will be to the benefit of Mason, Ryan and Miles, whose scoring should increase dramatically.



Just off-season basketball talk, but I expect Austin to be the team's leading scorer.

DukeVol
05-25-2011, 08:18 AM
Just off-season basketball talk, but I expect Austin to be the team's leading scorer.

This. Barring injury, I expect him to lead the team in scoring and field goal attempts. I like the offensive ability of several of our returning players, but none of them have the ability to create shots like Austin. I also think that none of them have the scorer's mentality and aggressiveness that Austin has.

My opinion; worth the price charged.

dukejim1
05-25-2011, 08:22 AM
I like the fact that they believe that Tyler can improve his conditioning. A higher energy, possibly quicker Tyler would give us a great offset to a backcourt that has strength in "combo" guards.

dyedwab
05-25-2011, 05:22 PM
This - " He needs to become an amazingly conditioned player, ala J.J. Redick" and This - "Should be non-stop motion on the floor, coming off screens and attacking" seem to be related points.

JJ's conditioning allowed him to run perpetually off screens as we saw late in his career AND become a better defensive player as he matured.

I remember thinking that Andre looked, physically, like a different person between his freshman and sophomore year. Another summer of conditioning with the coaching staff's expectations in mind? That would seem to bode well.

sagegrouse
05-25-2011, 05:38 PM
Just off-season basketball talk, but I expect Austin to be the team's leading scorer.

I hear you Roy, and you may be right, but it's my worst nightmare. It could mean that Austin takes twice as many shots as anyone else and is the default leading scorer, but not efficient. I would like him to emphasize breaking down the defenses and passing to the inside players or to wide-open guys on the 3-point line. I believe we have a lot of scoring talent on the team (not needed last year with Nolan and Kyle), just waiting to be utilized.

I am looking for Austin to show penetration and passing, defense, maturity and -- then -- scoring. And I think Kyrie was a once-in-a-lifetime phenom as a freshman, and it is scarily optimistic to believe that Austin will be the same kind of prodigy.

Also, I have a lot of respect for the guys on the team that have two or more years' experience, and I don't think they will be automatically outshone by a freshman, no matter how good.

I think I have tried to say the same thing three or four different ways, and I am not sure it is making much sense.

sagegrouse

Kedsy
05-25-2011, 05:49 PM
I hear you Roy, and you may be right, but it's my worst nightmare.

Wow, I can think of a lot of worse nightmares than Austin Rivers scoring a lot.

roywhite
05-25-2011, 06:35 PM
I hear you Roy, and you may be right, but it's my worst nightmare. It could mean that Austin takes twice as many shots as anyone else and is the default leading scorer, but not efficient. I would like him to emphasize breaking down the defenses and passing to the inside players or to wide-open guys on the 3-point line. I believe we have a lot of scoring talent on the team (not needed last year with Nolan and Kyle), just waiting to be utilized.

I am looking for Austin to show penetration and passing, defense, maturity and -- then -- scoring. And I think Kyrie was a once-in-a-lifetime phenom as a freshman, and it is scarily optimistic to believe that Austin will be the same kind of prodigy.



What I'm hoping for in Austin's performance is something along the lines of what he did for the USA U-18 team in the 2010 FIBA competition (http://www.usabasketball.com/photos/10_mu18_stats.pdf)

He was on a team with several talented players including Kyrie, Quincy Miller, Vander Blue, and Patric Young. Austin led the team in scoring and shot a good percentage from the floor and especially from 3-point (well, I don't know if he'll shoot 60% from 3-pt next year:o). He didn't have a ton of assists, but he didn't have a ton of turnovers, either, and certainly played within the team concept.

I watched a number of Austin's high school games last year, and he was a bit of a gunner, but that team won state championships in Florida's largest classification without any great supporting cast. What I see from Austin is that he can create his own shot, but is a winner who plays according to what the team needs.

Next year's team will have others with scoring potential, but then again, we don't return even one double-figure scorer. Austin could well be in with one or two others scoring around 15 ppg, but he may well lead the team with 19-20 ppg. At least, that's what my crystal ball says.

Wander
05-25-2011, 07:48 PM
I am looking for Austin to show penetration and passing, defense, maturity and -- then -- scoring. And I think Kyrie was a once-in-a-lifetime phenom as a freshman, and it is scarily optimistic to believe that Austin will be the same kind of prodigy.

Also, I have a lot of respect for the guys on the team that have two or more years' experience, and I don't think they will be automatically outshone by a freshman, no matter how good.


Austin Rivers is the best scorer in his class - it's not helpful to have scoring be fifth on his list of priorities. And we know that K's philosophy is to let players do what they're best at.

I understand your hesitancy, but if there were ever a Duke team that cried out for an incoming player to take up a large scoring load, it's one that lost Kyrie, Nolan, and Singler. I think it's likely to be a bad sign if Austin Rivers fails to "outshine" Ryan Kelly or Miles Plumlee.

Jason W
05-25-2011, 08:08 PM
I'm not exactly sure about why, but I have a feeling this team is going to be one of our best. I just see some progressions I like.

sagegrouse
05-25-2011, 08:46 PM
Austin Rivers is the best scorer in his class - it's not helpful to have scoring be fifth on his list of priorities. And we know that K's philosophy is to let players do what they're best at.

I understand your hesitancy, but if there were ever a Duke team that cried out for an incoming player to take up a large scoring load, it's one that lost Kyrie, Nolan, and Singler. I think it's likely to be a bad sign if Austin Rivers fails to "outshine" Ryan Kelly or Miles Plumlee.

Yes, I hear you too, Wander, but I think Duke will be a very good to great team if Austin plays within the team context. I have followed Duke basketball religio-usly for decades. There has been no freshman as talented as Kyrie. I am not buying into the "Messiah complex," where we imagine a do-everything freshman player that lifts the team to greatness the moment he walks on the court. I don't think we should expect that from Austin, and I think we should give him time to get his sea legs and develop naturally.

If Austin proves to be as good as Kyrie and a lot more durable, will I feel cheated because my prediction was wrong? Heck, no! This is just my opinion ... and my hedge against unreasonable expectations.

It's the off-season. I hope we can continue to banter back-and-forth on such things without rancor.

sagegrouse

trey_dre20
05-25-2011, 08:46 PM
I'm not exactly sure about why, but I have a feeling this team is going to be one of our best. I just see some progressions I like.

like what?

bdeviled11
05-28-2011, 09:54 PM
I begin with the three players who started the majority of the games last year: Mason, Seth and Ryan. Those are starters and, given that we are losing one-half of our scoring from 2011, there are other places for newcomers to fill.

El Primo is Austin Rivers. While I don't count on Austin to be the leading scorer, I think he will be a starter from day one with the ability to penetrate, dish and score. This will be to the benefit of Mason, Ryan and Miles, whose scoring should increase dramatically.

But doesn't Austin's presence on the court also change the calculus around PG? I don't see Seth -- in his fourth year of college ball -- getting dislodged by Quin or Tyler, given his offense and quick hands on defense. Seth does not need to be a classic PG with Austin on the court and Tyler/Quin playing major minutes.

I also think Andre has the capability to be all-conference performer. He may not start, but I think he will get starter's minutes and score in double digits. Dre could be a reeal surprise for the Devils in 2012.

sagegrouse


Having Rivers on the court will change this team dynamically. But what does that turn the offense into? Is he going to be burdened with having to create for others, or will he be better playing off the ball and just scoring? Meaning does he dominate the ball in a half court set and run plays, or will it turn into more of a motion offense where everybody knows their spots? Will the tempo be up and down, or more half court? And honestly I think that's what makes next year's team most exciting, because I don't have a clue as to which personality will ultimately dominate. Will the younger players defer to the vets, or do they take over?

I think Dawkins does have an opportunity to imprint his will on this team, if he has the moxie to do so. That will be one of the telling keys to next year, how do Rivers, Dawkins, and Curry co exist? Once that is settled other players can figure out their value.

Having K. Irving on the court made the bigs better, because they got the ball in better positions. And that team really was built to run, Duke's inside players were able to run consistently. I'm kind of trying to make people see that in a half court offense next year Duke's best option will be the three, and not inside scoring, unless those players' make those scoring opportunities themselves. In this scenario rebounding and desire will be the most important attributes for an inside player, not back to the basket moves.

The Scheyer point guard year, actually worked really well because all of the veteran players could play at a very similar pace. Having Zoubek at center wasn't a liability because his speed, and the squad itself, was closer to the one that Scheyer could thrive in and limit mistakes. Having Zoubek paired with Irving probably wouldn't have worked out as well, in my opinion. But I think Scheyer could execute exactly what was necessary because of the secondary ball handlers in Singler, and Smith. There seemed to be a definite familiarity (naturally) and precision to that team that opponents' couldn't match for an entire game.

Well I've rambled on way too much, so I apologize but I really do look forward to next year, because I think the bumps in the road will get sorted out early.

darjum
05-29-2011, 12:32 AM
My general concern is not about scoring potential, which I think is there in good measure. I have questions about ball handling:
Who is the primary ball handler...Seth, Austin, eventually Quinn?
Without someone emerging as the primary ball handler, can ball handling by committee work well?

And rebounding:
Aside from Mason, who gets rebounds?
Does a small lineup hurt us significantly on the boards?

Ball handling is my current 'concern' also. Regardless of if it is Dick Groat, Bobby Hurley, Jon Scheyer or Kyrie Irving, you need to know who is taking the ball from the back court to the front court and that player needs to know he has control and what his job is. I will admit that due to the Rivers effect the PG may have a different role than other Duke PG's, but there has to be a primary ball handler who knows his role.

From the comments by Collins it does not appear that Seth or Tyler is just going to inherit the initial job of primary ball handler, where by Collins stated about Curry: "From a skill standpoint, he needs to continue to improve his ball-handling and ability to create off the dribble, which will complement his shooting ability". Indicating that in order to be the primary ball handler there is a fair bit of work to be done. About Tyler Collins stated: "Get in the best shape of his life. Probably shed some weight where he can run all day...He should continue to improve his ball-handling and be able to knock down an open 3-point shot with his feet set". At this stage it doesn't appear Tyler is in condition to play heavy minutes as a primary ball handler? Who then, Quinn or Rivers?

I'm not sold on Quinn just yet, he is coming off of a fairly serious injury and having to be the primary ball handler and offensive initiator against ACC opposition might be too much. I too worry a bit about River's as the primary ball handler as I worry he is more Kobe Bryant than LeBron James. The worst thing for a Duke offense is for it to get bogged down in too much isolation, one on one play. If that happens Kelly and the Plumlee's might as well just stay back on defense. Having said that...


Just off-season basketball talk, but I expect Austin to be the team's leading scorer.

I too hope Austin is the leading scorer. But not Duke's primary ball handler. The bigs on this Duke team need someone who is looking to get them involved. Kelly I feel could have a really big boost in points if he's used effectively in both the high and low post, he appears very skilled and balanced.

But in the end, you need a player who can do the amazing when the offense is bogged down and I feel River's might be the man for the moment. By all accounts he has creative skills offensively and when Duke needs a bucket he sounds like he is capable. But as long as for the main he is coming off of screens and playing within a structured (but certainly not mechanical, Mr T.J Hairston) offense then he could be great.

It would be very interesting to see what Collin's and the Duke staff have planned for the incoming freshmen, such a large group of them.

JMarley50
05-29-2011, 10:30 AM
I too worry a bit about River's as the primary ball handler as I worry he is more Kobe Bryant than LeBron James.

So let me get this straight...You compared Austin to Kobe and LeBron yet you are worried about him? If he's even close to either one of those guys, I'd say we're in pretty good shape! Besides, doesn't Kobe have more rings? :cool:

All joking aside, I think I understand what you are saying, and I think it might be a little unfair to Austin. He was pretty much the only offense for his team ala Kobe, but given the talent around him, that's what it took for them to win.

He said in an interview somewhere that he would play whatever role they needed him to. He seems to have a very high basketball IQ, and the athletic ability to be very versatile like LeBron. So who knows what we'll see...

At the end of the day, this is still K's team. If Austin is taking 80% of the shots, there is a pretty good chance that its because he was asked to do so.

Bob Green
05-29-2011, 12:43 PM
At the end of the day, this is still K's team. If Austin is taking 80% of the shots, there is a pretty good chance that its because he was asked to do so.

I'm confident Rivers will not be taking 80% of the shots. His stats on the USA U18 team are my rationale:

http://www.usabasketball.com/photos/10_mu18_stats.pdf

During the five day tournament, Rivers took 60 of the team's 374 field goal attempts or 16%.

JohnGalt
05-29-2011, 01:54 PM
I'm confident Rivers will not be taking 80% of the shots. His stats on the USA U18 team are my rationale:

http://www.usabasketball.com/photos/10_mu18_stats.pdf

During the five day tournament, Rivers took 60 of the team's 374 field goal attempts or 16%.

hmmm, he did shoot 60% from 3 though meaning we can expect that, right Bob?

:cool:

JMarley50
05-29-2011, 02:10 PM
I'm confident Rivers will not be taking 80% of the shots. His stats on the USA U18 team are my rationale:

http://www.usabasketball.com/photos/10_mu18_stats.pdf

During the five day tournament, Rivers took 60 of the team's 374 field goal attempts or 16%.

That is exactly what I was getting at. I don't think he's a player who has to take a ton of shots to be happy and effective (i.e. Kobe). That's just the role he had to play at Winter Park in order to win. When surrounded by other offensive threats, like Seth, Dre, and Mason, I think we will see him take on a more "LeBron-esque" role and do a little bit of everything. I expect him to stay within the offense most of the time. But I do feel like he will be the guy to throw the team on his back during tough situations. Too bad he's not really "LeBron-esque" and 6'8" 250 lbs.

darjum
05-29-2011, 09:49 PM
So let me get this straight...You compared Austin to Kobe and LeBron yet you are worried about him? If he's even close to either one of those guys, I'd say we're in pretty good shape! Besides, doesn't Kobe have more rings? :cool:

All joking aside, I think I understand what you are saying, and I think it might be a little unfair to Austin. He was pretty much the only offense for his team ala Kobe, but given the talent around him, that's what it took for them to win.

He said in an interview somewhere that he would play whatever role they needed him to. He seems to have a very high basketball IQ, and the athletic ability to be very versatile like LeBron. So who knows what we'll see...

At the end of the day, this is still K's team. If Austin is taking 80% of the shots, there is a pretty good chance that its because he was asked to do so.

Basically I was talking about game styles. I feel Austin will be an elite scorer at the college level (much in the way Kobe is in the NBA), but not an elite passer (say as LBJ is in the NBA). I was just using a metaphor.

Austin's offensive production will depend on the growth of all the player Collin's discussed. They step up, then Duke will not rely as heavily on the talented, yet still freshman, son of a Doc.