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DukieinSoCal
05-18-2011, 07:51 PM
With D.Daniels pretty much out of the picture, we now have a good idea of what our roster will look like next season. So, how will coach K set up our offense to take advantage of our players' strengths? How will it all come together into a cohesive offensive philosophy/approach?

It seems like most fans/posters have Seth, Austin, Andre, Ryan, and Mason as the probable starters starting off the year. While it's hard to argue against this lineup because of its considerable experience, it does raise some questions. Will Seth or Austin be handling the ball most of the time? When Austin has the ball(in a role similar to Nolan's last year), will he be able to get his teammates involved sufficiently? From what I've seen of Austin, he's used to looking for his own scoring and is not afraid to put up a lot of shots. This could lead to a lot of standing around and watching by the other guys on the court. I remember this happening a lot when JJ was the focus of the offense.

Can either Seth or Austin get the ball to Mason in good positions to score? As we saw last season, Mason can struggle to create his own scoring opportunities and depends on solid point guard play to really flourish.

Given the questions surrounding the PG spot, would Quinn be the best solution for our team? Quinn is a natural PG, groomed to handle the ball and run an offense. He has great vision and loves to set up his teammates. If he can handle the jump to college defensively, our offense would likely benefit from Quinn's abilities. I bet we would run more effectively in transition and that Mason and Austin would get better looks both on the fast break and in half-court sets. And I really think that Mason and Austin will be the 2 keys to our success on offense next year. I know that Seth, Dre, and Ryan will all contribute but I feel like we know what we're going to get out of those guys(8-12 ppg, steady supporting roles).

What does everyone else think?
The start of the 2011-12 season seems like an eternity away!

CDu
05-18-2011, 08:06 PM
I think there are a lot of questions, and a lot of potential answers. That's what happens when you lose your three best offensive players and your three primary ballhandlers.

Your questions are great questions. We'll have lots of guards, but none who have proven they can run an elite offense at the college level.

Other questions include:

- will any of our bigs make substantial improvements in their post games offensively?
- will Dawkins or Curry diversify their games to become more than just streak shooters?
- how much will the freshmen be ready to contribute?

I disagree that Dawkins/Curry/Kelly are all necessarily destined for 8-12 ppg supporting roles. That may very well be the result, but I've learned over the years that players can make big surprising jumps at any point from season to season (sometimes even within a season).

Newton_14
05-18-2011, 08:51 PM
I think there are a lot of questions, and a lot of potential answers. That's what happens when you lose your three best offensive players and your three primary ballhandlers.

Your questions are great questions. We'll have lots of guards, but none who have proven they can run an elite offense at the college level.

Other questions include:

- will any of our bigs make substantial improvements in their post games offensively?
- will Dawkins or Curry diversify their games to become more than just streak shooters?
- how much will the freshmen be ready to contribute?

I disagree that Dawkins/Curry/Kelly are all necessarily destined for 8-12 ppg supporting roles. That may very well be the result, but I've learned over the years that players can make big surprising jumps at any point from season to season (sometimes even within a season).


I think Dawkins is going to put it together and fill it up this year. So in my view, pencil him in as one of the kids that increases his scoring to fill the gap. I think Mason will also increase his scoring.

Regarding the bigs, one of the most important things is will the offense be designed to get the bigs more scoring opportunities? In fairness to all of them, last years offense as well as the year before, was just not designed to get those guys a lot of scoring opportunities. I think that fact sometimes gets lost in the discussions.

I agree whole-heartedly with you, that underclassmen can make medium to big jumps in their scoring. Nolan certainly showed us that as has many others over the years. We have several candidates on the roster that have the tools to make the scoring jump. It is just a matter of how many of them make that jump and how big of a jump they make.

NSDukeFan
05-19-2011, 12:19 PM
I think there are a lot of questions, and a lot of potential answers. That's what happens when you lose your three best offensive players and your three primary ballhandlers.

Your questions are great questions. We'll have lots of guards, but none who have proven they can run an elite offense at the college level.

Other questions include:

- will any of our bigs make substantial improvements in their post games offensively?
- will Dawkins or Curry diversify their games to become more than just streak shooters?
- how much will the freshmen be ready to contribute?

I disagree that Dawkins/Curry/Kelly are all necessarily destined for 8-12 ppg supporting roles. That may very well be the result, but I've learned over the years that players can make big surprising jumps at any point from season to season (sometimes even within a season).

I've learned from reading this board that players cannot actually improve from one year to the next and once we see them in a game we know what we are going to get with that player and we should hope for a more talented player that can be recruited. ;)

Kedsy
05-19-2011, 01:29 PM
Will Seth or Austin be handling the ball most of the time? When Austin has the ball(in a role similar to Nolan's last year), will he be able to get his teammates involved sufficiently? From what I've seen of Austin, he's used to looking for his own scoring and is not afraid to put up a lot of shots. This could lead to a lot of standing around and watching by the other guys on the court. I remember this happening a lot when JJ was the focus of the offense.

I expect Austin to have the ball in his hands a lot and play a role similar to Nolan last year. I agree with you that one of the challenges for the coaching staff is to keep the other players moving on offense and not standing around and watching. Like Nolan, Austin should end up with good assist numbers despite primarily hunting for his own shot.


Can either Seth or Austin get the ball to Mason in good positions to score? As we saw last season, Mason can struggle to create his own scoring opportunities and depends on solid point guard play to really flourish.

I don't think Mason's strength is going to be "creating his own scoring opportunities," but I don't think he "depends on solid point guard play to really flourish," either. Other than the Marquette game, he wasn't much of a scorer this past season, with or without Kyrie. And in the Marquette game, he broke out not so much because of Kyrie as because Coach K called his number a lot. If the team looks to Mason as our primary or secondary option, he'll score. All Kyrie did for him was get him an extra alley-oop look or two per game, which is not insignificant, but is not the whole story. Besides, I suspect Austin will be able to get him similar alley-oop looks as Kyrie did.

To me, the real issue with Mason is how much effort will he put into getting into scoring position? He likes to get the ball outside and drive, or put up a fadeaway from 10 feet, or that little jump-hook thing he developed midway through the season. But none of these appear to be particularly effective go-to moves for him. When he went backdoor, he got the ball a lot last year, but he didn't try it nearly as much as I expected or hoped. He didn't set up on the low block so much and when he did he didn't always get the ball, but he also seemed to give up his offensive position too quickly. If he worked harder at it, I felt he would have gotten more successful touches in there.

So, ultimately, I think the bottom line on Mason's scoring is if he puts in significantly more effort, he'll score more. If he doesn't, he won't, no matter who's playing point for us.


Given the questions surrounding the PG spot, would Quinn be the best solution for our team?

This is an unanswerable question at this stage. None of us have ever seen Quinn play against college competition. However, because playing Quinn would either mean benching Seth or sacrificing defense (because we'd be very undersized at 2 or maybe 3 positions), I strongly suspect Quinn will come off the bench.


I know that Seth, Dre, and Ryan will all contribute but I feel like we know what we're going to get out of those guys(8-12 ppg, steady supporting roles).


It's funny, but I feel like these three guys (Seth, Andre, and Ryan) are the three guys on the team who we have the least idea what we'll get from. All three could end up being supporting role players, as you suggest, but all three also have the potential to be All-ACC caliber players if they advance the way I think they might. I predict at least one of the three, and maybe more, will have a major breakout season.

ACCBBallFan
05-19-2011, 04:29 PM
Pretty much agree with all of Kedsy's replies.

Austin is unstoppable. With that jab step, quick release 3 and fast first step, he will have the ball in his hands a lot, but nott as the PG.

Rivers is best suited of the three Seth, Dre and Austin to be the explosive SF. He takes it to the hoop more too, so better to have him at the 3 with Seth and Dre back to stop opponents from leaking out.

Rivers is slightly taller, and rebounds fairly well on both ends.

I do not see it as guys standing around watching Austin do his thing, more like three guys getting open for spot up 3's by Ryan, Dre or Seth plus a Plumlee approaching from the far side for a potential alley oop.

With Kelly as the PF/WF2, opponent has to put their most mobile big on him. Once Rivers beats his man 1 vs. 1 in a clear out situation, the less mobile of the two big defenders has to decide whether to leave Mason/Miles open for an alley oop or to commit to stopping Rivers and possibly getting into foul trouble, thus making the Plumlees even more effective against a guy in foul trouble.

Austin also has the floater and pull up in his arsenal. Whoever shades over to help Rivers' defender leaves his man open for an uncontested 3 pointer.

For the most part, other than on Team USA, coached by Capel BTW, Rivers has not had enough good teammates to really show what he can do as a passer when doubled. When surrounded by Curry, Dawkins and Kelly, Austin should rack up quite a few dimes to them or to a Plumlee when not bagging his own 3 or scoring on and ones.

So in answer to the OP, coach K will play to Rivers' strengths and make him the centerpiece of the spread offense. Quinn Cook's pure PG skills will be needed more the following year when Rivers is in the NBA. By then, hopefully Gbinije and Murphy are ready to play the SF spot since a lineup of Cook, Curry and Dawkins is really small.

It remains to be seen whether Josh or Alex is the backup for Ryan Kelly. My preference would be for the Plumlees to alternate every 4 minutes to keep them fresh with fouls to give. When they are paired together they have too many of the same strengths and weaknesses and clog the middle too much for Rivers to drive and penetrate, plus get into each others' way.

loldevilz
05-19-2011, 04:48 PM
I actually think that next year's offense will look a lot like last years.

Austin will replace Nolan the centerpeice of the offense. He will use those screens to absolutely kill defenses. His great first step and NBA midrange game will make him difficult to defend.

Mason and Ryan hopefully will make huge strides. I expect both those guys to be able to score the ball around the basket. Mason will have a lot more opportunity to use that jump hook he's been working on. Ryan will have the green light to shoot the ball.

Seth Curry I think will be the one guy who could make this offense very very difficult to contain. With his great shooting stroke he will be moved around a bunch and come off screens.

We may live by the three and die by the three this year, but I think we have very clutch shooters in Curry and Rivers so I'm not worried.

ThePublisher
05-19-2011, 07:29 PM
I don't think you can peg our upcoming style just yet. I think it will vary a lot by opponent. It depends on how cook develops, because that kid can dish the ball like nobody's business. It depends on dawkins' and mason's development, both of whom I think will really blossom next year. It depends on Rivers defense... And on and on...

Saratoga2
05-19-2011, 08:20 PM
I think Ryan will get the ball at the top of the key after screening for Austin and Seth. He can be pretty effective shooting from there and he also passes well, presumably to Mason and or to the corner for jump shots. Andre and Seth can get open looks that way if they move without the ball. We have to make up a lot of points from last year, so Ryan will have to up his average along with all the other starters.

sagegrouse
05-19-2011, 08:31 PM
IMHO (where the H is usually silent) Duke will emphasize scoring on the inside next year. No one returning is averaging double digits in scoring. Mason and Ryan will show off their offensive skills, and the more Austin, Seth and Andre drive the lane, the better it is for the bigs.

Mason and Ryan will both be all-conference selections, and Miles will be a defensive stopper.

As for starters, let's remember (said for my own benefit) that Duke is returning three players who started the majority of games last year: Mason, Ryan and Seth. Pencil them in now. Duke players improve every year, and these guys will be money in 2012. Also pencil in Austin, whose versatility will enable him to play the off-guard, the wing and the point.

Fifth starter? I'd probably bet on Andre, who will be a junior. I won't be surprised if Quin gets a lot of starts and Miles and Tyler get a few.

But I am looking for Mason and Ryan to average close to 15PPG next year.

sagegrouse
'BTW if anyone is contemplating shoulder surgery, I would be happy to offer advice'

CDu
05-19-2011, 09:42 PM
But I am looking for Mason and Ryan to average close to 15PPG next year.

I agree with your prediction of primary starters, but I'd be very surprised if both Mason and Kelly both average close to 15ppg next year. The first reason is that those guys didn't even combine for 15ppg. The second (and more important in my opinion) is that it's very unusual for two big men to average close to 15ppg in college basketball.

I'll expect 2-3 players to be in the 15ppg (or higher) range, and I wouldn't be at all shocked if one of them was Mason or Kelly. But I'd be very surprised if two of the three guys averaging in the neighborhood of 15ppg are bigs.

darjum
05-20-2011, 07:54 AM
I agree with your prediction of primary starters, but I'd be very surprised if both Mason and Kelly both average close to 15ppg next year. The first reason is that those guys didn't even combine for 15ppg. The second (and more important in my opinion) is that it's very unusual for two big men to average close to 15ppg in college basketball.

I'll expect 2-3 players to be in the 15ppg (or higher) range, and I wouldn't be at all shocked if one of them was Mason or Kelly. But I'd be very surprised if two of the three guys averaging in the neighborhood of 15ppg are bigs.

I agree that one will, but not both, I have a feeling it will be Kelly, who appears to have a better "feel" for putting the ball in the basket, hence his consecutive shots in a row last season. On the break I would be happier to give the ball up to MP2 for one of his throw downs, but in the half court I would feel less heart palpitations if Kelly has the ball either in the high or low post compared to MP1 or MP2.

If Duke presses a lot on defense next year, which they should with the depth and athletes they have, then this will impact their offensive approach. Leading to more fast break points and less reliance on a well structured half court offense. In the half court you would envision that Rivers will have the ball in his hands a fair bit, which obviously impacts on what Duke needs out of its PG position. Do you need a shooter, do you need a quality defender, do you take the ball out of Rivers hands and allow the PG to set him up, can Seth, Quinn or Tyler own the position early and keep it through to tournament time?

I'm already on record as being an Andre fan, but I feel he may have the hardest job to 'earn' his minutes. By his nature and what I've seen the last two years he's a Shooting Guard, with a heavy emphasis on shooting. His handle and play making is suspect but when God was handing out jump shots, Andre got in the line for seconds, it's just that pure. But he will need to round out his game to compete with Austin, Seth, Michael Gbinije and Alex Murphy (the later two may surprise with length an athleticism at their positions for freshmen).

Either way, I really hope Duke pushes the ball next season and that Rivers is all his billed up to be and that Duke's upperclassmen show the rest of the ACC that talent combined with experience matters. Duke may take a while to gel with all of the incoming talent, but come ACC tournament time UNC better watch themselves for what should be a hard finishing Duke team.

sagegrouse
05-20-2011, 08:01 AM
I agree with your prediction of primary starters, but I'd be very surprised if both Mason and Kelly both average close to 15ppg next year. The first reason is that those guys didn't even combine for 15ppg. The second (and more important in my opinion) is that it's very unusual for two big men to average close to 15ppg in college basketball.

I'll expect 2-3 players to be in the 15ppg (or higher) range, and I wouldn't be at all shocked if one of them was Mason or Kelly. But I'd be very surprised if two of the three guys averaging in the neighborhood of 15ppg are bigs.



I agree that one will, but not both, I have a feeling it will be Kelly, who appears to have a better "feel" for putting the ball in the basket, hence his consecutive shots in a row last season. On the break I would be happier to give the ball up to MP2 for one of his throw downs, but in the half court I would feel less heart palpitations if Kelly has the ball either in the high or low post compared to MP1 or MP2.




No doubt you are both right that it is highly unlikely that both Mason and Ryan average near 15PPG. But it's May, and one is entitled to have some off-season dreams.

sagegrouse

darjum
05-20-2011, 08:10 AM
But it's May, and one is entitled to have some off-season dreams.

My off-season dream is that MP2 becomes the leading rebounder and shot blocker in D1 basketball next year. Again, a lofty dream, but my dream nonetheless.

COYS
05-20-2011, 09:01 AM
My off-season dream is that MP2 becomes the leading rebounder and shot blocker in D1 basketball next year. Again, a lofty dream, but my dream nonetheless.

I think Mason possesses some great playmaking skills, too. We rarely used him to set up the offense in the high post or low post, and part of that is because his scoring moves are so raw that doing so was likely to result in a turnover or missed shot. However, when he played within himself, he made some nifty passes, his cutters to the basket, and had a good number of assists hitting Seth or Nolan (and occasionally Andre) on the wing for a three. If he can play within himself a little bit more, I would not be surprised to see Mason add strong assist numbers . . . say 2-2.5 apg to his already strong rebounding numbers. I'm not sure how high his scoring will get next year (although I do expect double figures from him). However, I think we'll really get to see him stuff the stat sheet, even if he's only off the charts in rebounding and possibly blocked shots.

nocilla
05-20-2011, 12:45 PM
I think Miles starts in place of Kelly as he did for the last 6 games. I think K will look to Miles to step up and be the senior leader. Rivers, Mason, and Curry will be the primary scoring options. And I also believe Dawkins will be the 5th starter. But, I certainly have been wrong before.

CDu
05-20-2011, 01:09 PM
I think Miles starts in place of Kelly as he did for the last 6 games. I think K will look to Miles to step up and be the senior leader. Rivers, Mason, and Curry will be the primary scoring options. And I also believe Dawkins will be the 5th starter. But, I certainly have been wrong before.

I wouldn't be surprised by any frontcourt starting combination except Miles and Kelly. I think Mason is destined to start. I think the other big will be either Miles or Kelly, and I could see the spot changing hands some throughout the year. I'd love to see all three players step up and really improve/expand their games this year. I don't know if it'll happen, but each has tremendous potential that hasn't been realized to this point.

DukieinSoCal
05-20-2011, 07:08 PM
I just wonder if we'll be able to score a bit more in transition this upcoming season after being forced to slow things down the past couple of years. I know that the slower pace was ideal for the team when Jon was playing PG and Zoubek's offensive rebounding was pivotal to our success. And I know that things changed dramatically when Kyrie went down last year. But our roster next year looks stacked with athletes and speeding things up a bit might actually take advantage of our strengths.
Mason especially runs and finishes really well for a big guy and from what I've seen, our incoming class plays really well in transition, also. Maybe aside from Marshall, our other 3 freshmen are really athletic and savvy/polished, especially on the break.
I do think that Quinn needs to take over the PG position at some point in the season if we are to become an effective running team. I know it's not coach K's style to run up and down all game long, but some easy baskets in transition could certainly ease the burden of replacing our top 3 scorers.
Plus, it's just entertaining to watch. After watching the replay of the Duke-MSU game last year, I really wish we could see some of the beautiful transition play that we used to see with certain teams of the past. Of course, those teams had great PGs running the show, ie. Jason Williams, Hurley, even Avery. I do think that Quinn has the potential to become that type of guard. Hopefully, we start to see some of it this season.

-jk
05-20-2011, 07:27 PM
I think we'll know a lot more after the summer camps and dubai/china trip.

And the pick-up games, of course. I hear Marshall's a beast! Utterly unstoppable. :)

-jk

loldevilz
05-20-2011, 07:50 PM
I just wonder if we'll be able to score a bit more in transition this upcoming season after being forced to slow things down the past couple of years. I know that the slower pace was ideal for the team when Jon was playing PG and Zoubek's offensive rebounding was pivotal to our success. And I know that things changed dramatically when Kyrie went down last year. But our roster next year looks stacked with athletes and speeding things up a bit might actually take advantage of our strengths.
Mason especially runs and finishes really well for a big guy and from what I've seen, our incoming class plays really well in transition, also. Maybe aside from Marshall, our other 3 freshmen are really athletic and savvy/polished, especially on the break.
I do think that Quinn needs to take over the PG position at some point in the season if we are to become an effective running team. I know it's not coach K's style to run up and down all game long, but some easy baskets in transition could certainly ease the burden of replacing our top 3 scorers.
Plus, it's just entertaining to watch. After watching the replay of the Duke-MSU game last year, I really wish we could see some of the beautiful transition play that we used to see with certain teams of the past. Of course, those teams had great PGs running the show, ie. Jason Williams, Hurley, even Avery. I do think that Quinn has the potential to become that type of guard. Hopefully, we start to see some of it this season.

With Seth Curry as the point guard I think its really unlikely this team runs.

Lord Ash
05-20-2011, 09:24 PM
I think we'll know a lot more after the summer camps and dubai/china trip.

And the pick-up games, of course. I hear Marshall's a beast! Utterly unstoppable. :)

-jk

Heard he hit a three right over Nick Horvath! Can't wait!

;)

Seriously though, can't wait. Having the Dubai/China trip so early will be fun, assuming we get to see the games!:)

m g
05-20-2011, 10:48 PM
i think it will be dawkins or gbinije as the fifth starter. never know what you'll get out of a freshman, but gbinije seems to have made his name on smart basketball rather than flashy athletic plays

it's hard to say about the offense. but we have a lot of guys who can put in more points than they've been asked to, and i'm really excited to see who steps up. it seems like the most reasonable guess is that rivers will be the #1 scorer and curry #2. dawkins and mason seem most likely to step in as the third option but probably any of the other scholarship players could do it (and it probably won't be a freshman even though we've got some real talent coming aboard)