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pfrduke
07-06-2007, 05:14 PM
I was inspired to do this by a discussion of Josh's shooting in the "Josh" thread. Thanks to GoDuke and XoS (which does the live stats for Duke games), we have information on the type of shots everyone is taking during the games. There are 5 categories: dunk, layup, tip-in, jumper, and 3-pt. Over the course of the weekend, I'll try to get up everyone's shooting stats split up among these categories, and then I'll post them player-by-player in this thread. Once I have everyone, I'll keep these stats archived on my website. As long as XoS is back providing live stats next year, I'll try to run this for next season as well.

Prefatory Note: I have no play-by-play for Gonzaga or St. Johns, and the one at UNC lists every shot as a jumper. All three of these games are excluded from the calculations.

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 05:17 PM
Total: 154-300 = 51.3%
2pt FG: 149-278 = 53.6%
3pt FG: 5-22 = 22.8%
Dunks: 39-44 = 88.6%
Layups: 60-82 = 73.2%
Tip-ins: 4-8 = 50.0%
Dunks & Layups: 99-126 = 78.6%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 103-134 = 76.9%
All other 2pt FG: 46-144 = 31.9%
All non-dunks: 115-256 = 44.9%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 51-166 = 30.7%

Numbers including 3 missing games:
Total: 164-327 = 50.2%
2pt FG: 159-304 = 52.3%
3pt FG: 5-23 = 21.7%

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 05:20 PM
Total: 162-330 = 49.1%
2pt FG: 123-225 = 54.7%
3pt FG: 39-105 = 37.1%
Dunks: 30-31 = 96.8%
Layups: 66-109 = 60.6%
Tip-ins: 4-7 = 57.1%
Dunks & Layups: 96-140 = 68.6%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 100-147 = 68.0%
All other 2pt FG: 23-78 = 29.5%
All non-dunks: 132-299 = 44.1%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 62-183 = 33.9%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 174-364 = 47.8%
2pt FG: 130-243 = 53.5%
3pt FG: 44-121 = 36.4%

ACCBBallFan
07-06-2007, 05:41 PM
I was inspired to do this by a discussion of Josh's shooting in the "Josh" thread. Thanks to GoDuke and XoS (which does the live stats for Duke games), we have information on the type of shots everyone is taking during the games. There are 5 categories: dunk, layup, tip-in, jumper, and 3-pt. Over the course of the weekend, I'll try to get up everyone's shooting stats split up among these categories, and then I'll post them player-by-player in this thread. Once I have everyone, I'll keep these stats archived on my website. As long as XoS is back providing live stats next year, I'll try to run this for next season as well.

Prefatory Note: I have no play-by-play for Gonzaga or St. Johns, and the one at UNC lists every shot as a jumper. All three of these games are excluded from the calculations.. Should be interesting.

You could true up your calculations that are without these 3 games for a few of your categories (3PT and overall FG, which would allow you to back into 2 PT but not dunk vs. jumper vs tap in etc), using

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/ncb/teamstats?teamId=150

where the bottom half has season totals rather than just the averages shown in top half.

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 10:42 PM
Total: 104-262 = 39.7%
2pt FG: 46-106 = 43.4%
3pt FG: 58-156 = 37.2%
Dunks: 0-0 =
Layups: 26-45 = 57.8%
Tip-ins: 5-5 = 100.0%
Dunks & Layups: 26-45 = 57.8%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 31-50 = 62.0%
All other 2pt FG: 15-56 = 26.8%
All non-dunks: 104-262 = 39.7%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 73-212 = 34.4%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 113-284 = 39.8%
2pt FG: 52-117 = 44.4%
3pt FG: 61-167 = 36.5%

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 10:53 PM
Total: 110-249 = 44.2%
2pt FG: 54-119 = 45.4%
3pt FG: 56-130 = 43.1%
Dunks: 0-0 =
Layups: 24-48 = 50.0%
Tip-ins: 0-0 =
Dunks & Layups: 24-48 = 50.0%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 24-48 = 50.0%
All other 2pt FG: 30-71 = 42.3%
All non-dunks: 110-249 = 44.2%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 86-201 = 42.8%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 130-285 = 45.6%
2pt FG: 62-134 = 46.3%
3pt FG: 68-151 = 45.0%

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 11:00 PM
Total: 75-165 = 45.5%
2pt FG: 68-146 = 46.6%
3pt FG: 7-19 = 36.8%
Dunks: 19-21 = 90.5%
Layups: 22-39 = 56.4%
Tip-ins: 2-3 = 66.7%
Dunks & Layups: 41-60 = 68.3%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 43-63 = 68.3%
All other 2pt FG: 25-83 = 30.1%
All non-dunks: 56-144 = 38.9%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 32-102 = 31.4%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 87-193 = 45.1%
2pt FG: 79-168 = 47.0%
3pt FG: 8-25 = 32.0%

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 11:05 PM
Total: 53-99 = 53.5%
2pt FG: 49-93 = 52.7%
3pt FG: 4-6 = 66.7%
Dunks: 8-9 = 88.9%
Layups: 23-36 = 63.9%
Tip-ins: 5-9 = 55.6%
Dunks & Layups: 31-45 = 68.9%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 36-54 = 66.7%
All other 2pt FG: 13-39 = 33.3%
All non-dunks: 45-90 = 50.0%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 17-45 = 37.8%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 54-110 = 49.1%
2pt FG: 50-103 = 48.5%
3pt FG: 4-7 = 57.1%

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 11:09 PM
Total: 44-77 = 57.1%
2pt FG: 44-77 = 57.1%
3pt FG: 0-0 =
Dunks: 9-9 = 100.0%
Layups: 17-32 = 53.1%
Tip-ins: 1-3 = 33.3%
Dunks & Layups: 26-41 = 63.4%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 27-44 = 61.4%
All other 2pt FG: 17-33 = 51.5%
All non-dunks: 35-68 = 51.5%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 17-33 = 51.5%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 46-81 = 56.8%
2pt FG: 46-81 = 56.8%
3pt FG: 0-0 =

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 11:12 PM
Total: 33-62 = 53.2%
2pt FG: 33-62 = 53.2%
3pt FG: 0-0 =
Dunks: 4-4 = 100.0%
Layups: 19-30 = 63.3%
Tip-ins: 3-9 = 33.3%
Dunks & Layups: 23-34 = 67.6%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 26-43 = 60.5%
All other 2pt FG: 7-19 = 36.8%
All non-dunks: 29-58 = 50.0%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 7-19 = 36.8%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 33-63 = 52.4%
2pt FG: 33-63 = 52.4%
3pt FG: 0-0 =

pfrduke
07-06-2007, 11:17 PM
Total: 19-42 = 45.2%
2pt FG: 11-17 = 64.7%
3pt FG: 8-25 = 32.0%
Dunks: 1-1 = 100.0%
Layups: 7-10 = 70.0%
Tip-ins: 0-0 =
Dunks & Layups: 8-11 = 72.7%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 8-11 = 72.7%
All other 2pt FG: 3-6 = 50.0%
All non-dunks: 18-41 = 43.9%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 11-31 = 35.5%

Numbers including 3 missing games
Total: 19-44 = 43.2%
2pt FG: 11-18 = 61.1%
3pt FG: 8-26 = 30.8%

pfrduke
07-07-2007, 12:07 AM
Total: 756-1589 = 47.6%
2pt FG: 579-1126 = 51.4%
3pt FG: 177-463 = 38.2%
Dunks: 110-119 = 92.4%
Layups: 266-433 = 61.4%
Tip-ins: 24-44 = 54.5%
Dunks & Layups: 376-522 = 68.1%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 400-596 = 67.1%
Other 2pt FG: 179-530 = 33.8%
All non-dunks: 646-1470 = 43.9%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 356-993 = 35.9%

Point and shot distribution:
Total points (not including FTs): 1689
Points from 2: 1158 = 68.6% (of all points)
Points from 3: 531 = 31.4%
Points from dunks: 220 = 13.0%
Points from layups: 532 = 31.5%
Points from tip-ins: 48 = 2.8%
Points from dunks & layups: 752 = 44.5%
Points from dunks, layups & tip-ins: 800 = 47.4%
Points from other 2pt FG: 358 = 21.2%
Points from all "jumpers" (2s & 3s) = 889 = 52.6%

Total shots from the field: 1589
Shots from 2: 1126 = 70.9% (of all shots)
Shots from 3: 463 = 29.1%
Dunk shots: 119 = 7.5%
Layup shots: 433 = 27.2%
Tip-in shots: 44 = 3.0%
Dunk & layup shots: 552 = 34.7%
Dunk, layup, & tip-in shots: 596 = 37.5%
Other shots from 2: 530 = 33.4%
Jumpshots from 2 & 3: 993 = 62.5%

(in case anyone actually bothered to add up all the above numbers and realized they're slightly off, these numbers include 2 made layups for Boykin, and one missed 2pt jumper for Davidson).

4decadedukie
07-07-2007, 01:29 AM
Thanks, and I was interested -- and surprised -- in Pocius' almost 65 percent two point average.

mgtr
07-07-2007, 06:43 AM
Thanks for a heck of a lot of work. It is very interesting. We certainly have some good shooters. Disappointed in Nelson's layup percentage. Paulus' numbers were great. LT % showed very good shot selection, he just needs to be able to stay in the game long enough to take more!
Thanks again for providing this info.

Jfrosh
07-07-2007, 06:44 AM
Thanks, very interesting.
If we went according to stats (which, I know we can't), only Lance and Marty should take any two pointers that aren't dunks or layups. Our team numbers were just terrible. Shows how much we need to work on our midrange game.

JasonEvans
07-07-2007, 08:10 AM
Thanks for a heck of a lot of work. It is very interesting. We certainly have some good shooters. Disappointed in Nelson's layup percentage. Paulus' numbers were great. LT % showed very good shot selection, he just needs to be able to stay in the game long enough to take more!
Thanks again for providing this info.

Paulus' numbers were quite impressive. He is clearly our best shooter.

I think folks get fooled by "layup" as I am sure it is talking about all those driving-to-the-basket shots that get taken with the opposing team's shot blockers protecting the rim. It is not at all easy to hit more than half those shots.

-Jason "fabulous work putting this togehter!" Evans

ACCBBallFan
07-07-2007, 09:44 AM
Shows to go ya that you that % for any one category is misleading, especially when the numbers of shots attempted is small.

Some observations, still very surprising.

Order below is weighted average of their rankings in each category from 1-9, with low score being best. First number is without the 3 games and second number is with them included that may tend to double count. Depending on which is used, Zoubek and Nelson may swap places 5-6 of 9.

I thought perhaps the categories were too many and that skewed things, but when I used just Total w 3 games, 3 pt w 3 games, 2 pt w 3 games and layups w/o 3 games, the order was similar, though Lance fell more where I had expected him to, and McRoberts and Nelson moved up:

1. McClure14.0
2. McBobs 16.0
3T. Pocius 17.0
3T. Nelson 17.0
5. Zoubek 18.5
6. Lance 19.5
7. Paulus 25.0
8. Gerald 26.0
9. Scheyer27.0

Though method appears to be biased toward forwards over guards, results within position are still different than I expected.

1. McClure (40.5/51.5) led twice and exceeded team 10 times.

2. Lance(44.0/55.5) led in the most categories 6 and exceeded team average 8 times.

3. Pocius(44.5/59.5) led 3 times and exceeded 8 times.

4. McRoberts(49.0/64.0) also led 3 times and exceeded 8 times.

5. Zoubek(52.5/67.0) led once and exceeded team 9 times.

6. Nelson (53.0/65.0)never led in any one category but exceeded team 9 times.

7. Henderson (66.0/85.0) never led in any one category and exceeded only twice.

8. Paulus (72.0/88.0) never led in any one category and exceeded only 5 times (no dunks works against Greg and Jon and no 3's works against Lance and Zoubek).

9. Scheyer (73.5/94.5) only led in tip ins (5 for5) and that is only area he exceeded team average.

McBob Nelson Scheyer Paulus Gerald McClure Lance Zoubek Pocius DukeTeam<-Player/Category

51.3% 49.1% 39.7% 44.2% 45.5% 53.5% 57.1% 53.2% 45.2% 047.6% Total:

53.8% 54.7% 43.4% 45.4% 46.6% 52.7% 57.1% 53.2% 64.7%051.4% 2pt FG:

021.7% 037.1% 37.2%43.1%36.8% 66.7%000.0% 000.0% 32.0% 038.2% 3pt FG:

088.6% 96.8% 00.0% 00.0% 90.5% 88.9%100.0%100.0%100.0%92.4% Dunks:

73.2% 060.6% 57.8% 50.0% 56.4% 63.9%053.1% 63.3% 70.0%061.4% Layups:

050.0% 57.1%100.0%0.0% 66.7%55.6%033.3% 033.3% 00.0% 054.5% Tip-ins:

78.6% 68.6% 57.8% 50.0% 58.3% 68.9%063.4% 067.6% 72.7%068.1% Dunks & Layups:

76.9% 68.0% 62.0% 50.0% 68.3%066.7% 061.4% 60.5% 72.7%067.1% Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins:

032.2% 029.5% 26.8%42.3%030.1%033.3% 51.5% 36.8% 50.0%33.8% All other 2pt FG:

44.9% 44.1% 39.7%44.2%038.9% 50.0% 51.5% 50.0% 43.9%43.9% All non-dunks:

030.7% 033.9% 34.4%42.8%031.4% 37.8% 51.5% 36.8% 35.5% 35.9% All "jumpers" (2s & 3s):

50.2% 47.8% 39.8% 45.6% 045.1% 49.1% 56.8% 052.4%43.2% 46.9% Total w 3 games

52.3% 53.5% 44.4% 46.3% 047.0% 48.5% 056.8% 052.4%61.1%50.6% 2pt FG w 3 games

021.7% 036.4% 36.5%45.0%032.0% 57.1%000.0% 000.0% 030.8% 038.1% 3pt FG w 3 games

ACCBBallFan
07-08-2007, 03:23 PM
Still having trouble figuring out how to interpret these shooting percentages.

I tried a method that took (3PT% *3 + 2PT% *2)/(3+2) which is kind of screwy in that it assumes an equal number of 3 point and 2 point attempts, but rank order

1. McClure 53.66 raw score where highest is best
2. Paulus 45.52
3. Nelson 43.24
4. Pocius 42.96
5. Scheyer 39.66
6. Henderson 38.00
7. McRoberts 33.94
8. Lance 22.72
9. Zoubek 20.96

Though in this case it is instead biased against the bigs, it does give a comparison within position.

Again percentages based on very few shots like David's 4-6 from 3 land can skew the results, as can zero 3 PT attempted or made.

Still kind of surprising to see David McClure and Marty Pocius raw score relative to Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson.

pfrduke
07-09-2007, 11:45 AM
Still having trouble figuring out how to interpret these shooting percentages.

One of the interesting things I took from this was the relative lack of intrinsic value in a 2pt jump shot. Duke as a team shot worse on 2pt jump shots than on 3pt attempts. This difference is greatly magnified by the bonus point that comes with making a 3. From 3, Duke scored 531 points on 463 shots, or 1.15 points per shot. On 2pt jumpers, however, Duke scored just 358 points on 530 shots, for a ghastly 0.675 points per shot. This is almost exactly half as effective as the team was in close: 596 layup, dunk, and tip-in attempts resulted in 800 points, or 1.34 points per shot. (Overall we got 1.063 points for every attempt last year).

Now, without conference- or nation-wide numbers to compare these to, it's tough to say whether or not these numbers were extreme (i.e., Duke was just really bad at 2pt jumpers last year), or whether this is reflective of the general scoring distribution. I guess one point of comparison (which I'll hopefully have time for this week) is to see how Duke's opponents did on the year, and whether their shooting numbers were similar. But what this suggests, at least for last year's Devils, is that most shots that took place between about 2-3ft from the hoop and the three point line were "bad" shots. Obvioulsy, it seems unlikely to have a lot of success shooting only 3s or layups (although I'd love to see the numbers on a team like West Virginia), but the only value in a mid-range game seems to be in keeping defenses honest enough to be able to get higher percentage and/or higher reward shots more easily. This is something to watch for next year - it suggests that the fewer 2pt jumpers Duke has to take in a game, the better their shooting numbers will be, and thus the greater their likelihood for a victory.

pfrduke
07-09-2007, 12:12 PM
Here's some small sample evidence using Florida's NCAA Tournament stats showing similar results in relative shot success. In the six NCAA games, Florida shot better than Duke did overall (not too surprising there), but had a similar lack of relative success in taking 2pt jumpers. Here are the numbers:

Total shooting: 154-295 = 52.2&#37;
2pt FG: 101-166 = 60.8%
3pt FG: 53-129 = 41.1%
Dunks: 23-25 = 92.0%
Layups & tip-ins: 49-70 = 70.0%
Dunks, layups, & tip-ins: 72-95 = 75.8%
Other 2pt FG: 29-71 = 40.8%
All jumpers: 82-200 = 41.0%

Overall points per shot: 1.22
Dunks/layups/tip-ins points per shot: 1.52
3pt points per shot: 1.23
2pt jumpers point per shot: .817

% of shots given to dunks/layups/tipins: 95-295 = 32.2%
% of shots given to 2pt jumpers: 71-295 = 24.1%
% of shots given to 3pters: 129-295 = 43.7%

% of points from dunks/layups/tipins: 144-361 = 39.9%
% of points from 2pt jumpers: 58-361 = 16.1%
% of points from 3pters: 159-361 = 44.0%

Florida obviously converted better, but their relative success taking close shots, mid-range shots, and 3s is similar to Duke's. However, they were more successful (at least during the tourney run) at minimizing the number of 2pt jumpshot attempts they took, devoting almost all those "extra" shots to 3s (which for Florida, like Duke, were higher percentage in terms of raw percentage, and significantly higher value in terms of point yield).

ojaidave
07-10-2007, 12:03 AM
Still having trouble figuring out how to interpret these shooting percentages.

I tried a method that took (3PT% *3 + 2PT% *2)/(3+2) which is kind of screwy in that it assumes an equal number of 3 point and 2 point attempts, but rank order

1. McClure 53.66 raw score where highest is best
2. Paulus 45.52
3. Nelson 43.24
4. Pocius 42.96
5. Scheyer 39.66
6. Henderson 38.00
7. McRoberts 33.94
8. Lance 22.72
9. Zoubek 20.96

Though in this case it is instead biased against the bigs, it does give a comparison within position.

Again percentages based on very few shots like David's 4-6 from 3 land can skew the results, as can zero 3 PT attempted or made.

Still kind of surprising to see David McClure and Marty Pocius raw score relative to Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson.
Another way to look at things might be points per shot (3*3PointersMade+2*2PointersMade)/(3PointersAttempted+2PointersAttempted). To keep things in perspective though, we should also consider how much the player is contributing to the total offense (3*3PM+2*2PM)/(3*Team 3PointersMade+2*Team2PointersMade). I'm not sure how free throws should fit into the equation though. Certainly FT's are an important part of the game, maybe they could be added into the offensive contribution (3*3PM+2*2PM+FTM)/(3*Team3PM+2*Team2PM+TeamFTM). I'll throw that number in here as well. This view yields (includes the 3 "missing" games):

Rank _ Name _ Pts/ShotAttempt _ (Off. Contrib.) _ (Off. Contrib with free throws)
1. Paulus 1.15 (18%) (17%)
2. Thomas 1.14 (5%) (5%)
3. Nelson 1.08 (21%) (20%)
4T. Zoubek 1.05 (4%) (4%)
4T. Pocius 1.05 (2%) (2%)
6T. McRoberts 1.02(18%) (19%)
6T McClure 1.02 (6%) (6%)
8. Scheyer 1.01 (16%) (17%)
9. Henderson .94 (10%) (9%)

Henderson's numbers surprised me a bit. In retrospect, his game is geared more towards 1 on 1 play so I guess you would expect to see a drop off in efficiency.

Finally, because I can't help myself, let's throw in assist to turnovers.

Rank _ Name _ Pts/ShotAttempt _ Assist:Turnover Ratio
1. Paulus 1.15 1.23
2. Thomas 1.14 0.02
3. Nelson 1.08 0.80
4T. Zoubek 1.05 0.16
4T. Pocius 1.05 0.44
6T. McRoberts 1.02 1.43
6T McClure 1.02 0.43
8. Scheyer 1.01 1.17
9. Henderson .94 0.81


Thomas needs some serious work on his court vision, with Zoubek not too far behind.


Looking purely at a combination of these numbers as an opposing coach, I would:

Name _ PtsPerShot _ (%TotalOffense) _ Assist:Turnover
Nelson 1.08 (20%) 0.80 - Dedicated defender, bring a help defender to stop his shot (soft double)
Paulus 1.15 (17%) 1.23 - Dedicated defender and play the passing lanes.
Scheyer 1.01 (17%) 1.17 - Dedicated defender and play the passing lanes.
Henderson .94 (9%) 0.81 - Let him shoot, collapse if he drives the lane
McClure 1.02 (6%) 0.43 - Straight up defense
Thomas 1.14 (5%) 0.02 - Aggressive double team
Zoubek 1.05 (4%) 0.16 - Aggressive double team
Pocius 1.05 (2%) 0.44 - Rotate a defender

Dave

ACCBBallFan
07-10-2007, 05:20 AM
Thanks, Dave.

Those results seems to make some sense, and do show that Josh's overall game will be missed. However, the three newbies plus the growth in experience for the other 8 more than offset that.

pfrduke
07-11-2007, 12:12 AM
Here are the numbers for Duke opponents on the season (missing the same 3 games):

Total: 695-1643 = 42.3&#37;
2pt FG: 563-1234 = 45.6%
3pt FG: 132-409 = 32.3%
Dunks: 52-61 = 85.2%
Layups: 257-428 = 60.0%
Tip-ins: 16-38 = 42.1%
Dunks & Layups: 309-489 = 63.2%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 325-527 = 61.7%
Other 2pt FG: 238-707 = 33.7%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 370-1116 = 33.2%

Points per shot:
Overall: 1522/1643 = .926
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 650/527 = 1.23
2pt jumpers: 476/707 = .673
3pt jumpers: 396/409 = .968

% of shots given to dunks/layups/tipins: 527/1643 = 32.1%
% of shots given to 2pt jumpers: 707/1643 = 43.0%
% of shots given to 3pters: 409/1643 = 24.9%

% of points from dunks/layups/tipins: 650/1522 = 42.7%
% of points from 2pt jumpers: 476/1522 = 31.3%
% of points from 3pters: 396/1522 = 26.0%

Running these numbers made me realize a little bit of the brilliance of Duke's defense. We as fans complain a lot that guards from opponent teams get past our perimeter defense easily. That only matters if the end result is a layup (or a kick-out three). If the defense can recover well enough to keep the opponent in the mid-range, those shots are so low percentage and low yield that much more often than not, it's a victory for the defense. Duke forced opponents to take mid-range shots 43% of the time. Opponents shot just 33.7%, resulting in a points-per-shot yield of .675. Contrast this to Duke's ratio on offense (mid-range shots were 33.4% of all attempts) or Florida's during the NCAA (24.1%), and you can see how a big part of the reason for our defensive success last year was forcing opponents to shoot mid-range shots much more often than they wanted to. Duke's ratio of close shots + 3s : mid-range shots was 2:1. Florida's was 3:1 during the NCAAs. Duke's opponents' was 4:3. This whole analysis has convinced me that the lower the ratio is, the less likely a team is to have success on offense. Again, it's something to watch next year - the more mid-range jumpers a team takes, the less likely they are to succeed (in general).

As a side note, in the last two losses last season, NC St and VCU got into the lane for close-in shots way, way too much - 26 for NC St and 25 for VCU, compared to an average of 17.5 by opponents all season. The whole ratio was down in each of those games - 2.5:1 for NC St, and just over 2:1 for VCU.

ACCBBallFan
07-11-2007, 07:32 AM
a big part of the reason for our defensive success last year was forcing opponents to shoot mid-range shots much more often than they wanted to. Duke's ratio of close shots + 3s : mid-range shots was 2:1. Florida's was 3:1 during the NCAAs. Duke's opponents' was 4:3. This whole analysis has convinced me that the lower the ratio is, the less likely a team is to have success on offense. Again, it's something to watch next year - the more mid-range jumpers a team takes, the less likely they are to succeed (in general).

As a side note, in the last two losses last season, NC St and VCU got into the lane for close-in shots way, way too much - 26 for NC St and 25 for VCU, compared to an average of 17.5 by opponents all season. The whole ratio was down in each of those games - 2.5:1 for NC St, and just over 2:1 for VCU.Interesting contrast to other threads where posters are espousing Gerald Henderson and his ability to shoot the pull-up, something he will probably get a lot of practice at as the Duke starters' defense is willing to give/unable to stop.