Early Favorites In ACC Next Year

[pless55]

I have Duke and Carolina as contenders next year. Otherwise could anybody name any other schools that could contend with Duke and North Carolina next year. The only school that could play up to it's potential next year is NC State. Alot of young talent but question marks remain. Otherwise please name some contenders.

[darjum]

I think that Tony Bennett is a good coach and at some point Virginia will have a reasonable run. Not too sure if it will be next year, but at some point Bennett will get things moving.

[davekay1971]

If you're talking about contenders for ACC number 1, I don't think there's anybody realistically outside of Duke and UNC. Both Duke and UNC have a significant talent advantage over the rest of the field, Duke has a significant coaching advantage, and UNC has a significant zebra advantage :D

Assuming Leslie comes back, NC State will have a talented roster but a huge hole in the middle. Howell has developed well, but isn't likely to be an adequate replacement for Tracy Smith. Painter and Vandenberg remained quite raw at the end of last season. And Uchebo just decommitted, so State really is looking pretty undermanned in the paint. Add to that problem the significant questions: (1) Can Gottfried get the players to buy into his system; (2) can he get them to play defense; (3) can the talented trio of Harrow, Leslie, and Brown become considerably more consistent than last year; (4) Can Gottfried figure out how to get Wood open looks...etc. If he can get State up to number 3-5 in the ACC, Gottfried will have had a good year.

Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia Tech could all be good. FSU is bringing back some good talent and showed last season that they were a lot more than just Chris Singleton. Va Tech loses a very good senior class, but brings in a very talented freshman class. Brad Brownell did a great job with Clemson and they should be better with a full year of learning his system, and they bring back some nice players.

I can't think of anyone in the rest of the ACC who could compete for top tier in the conference. Maryland may be worth discussion if Williams returns (can't remember if he hired an agent or not). BC is unlikely to be as successful as last year due to player losses. UVa still seems to be too undermanned to threaten for top tier in the conference. Miami could potentially lure Calipari away from Kentucky and he could bring his number 1 recruiting class with him I suppose...but chances are greater that they'll be scrambling in the bottom half of the conference with a new coach working with the reasonable talent they have now. Wake can't be any worse, but a lot better than godawful is still probably going to be pretty bad. Georgia Tech still has a basketball team, I think.

I see the ACC next year as being three groups: the true contenders (Duke and UNC), the teams fighting for an NCAA tournament bid (FSU, NCSU, Clemson, Va Tech in the Annual Seth Greenberg Bubble Watch, and maybe UVa and Maryland), and the Maybe Next Year group (WFU, BC, GT, Miami).

[Olympic Fan]

I agree with Davekay that Duke and UNC are going to be the two teams picked at the top. In fact, I'm pretty sure UNC will be picked No. 1 in most peseason ACC rankings ... they'll be the overwhelming No. 1 pick if Barnes does indeed return.

Duke is a clearcut No. 2 (to start) ... then there is a big gap.

Right now, I would rate Florida State a solid No. 3, assuming all the guys who are in the draft stay in the draft. They can survive the early loss of Singleton. They still have a great collection of big men, several decent wing shooters (Snaer and Miller are just getting better and better; Louks and Dulkys will be seniors). They play great defense. If they had a top-flight point guard, I'd put them in the mix with Duke and UNC.

Behind them, I'm going to wait and see who pulls out of the draft. If Jordan Williams comes to his senses and withdraws, I could see Maryland battling FSU for third place. Their young guards will get better, plus they have the second-best coach in the league. Without Williams, they're in the lower part of the middle echelon.

Miami is in the same boat. I know they don't have a coach, but if Reggie Johnson gets medication and takes his name out of the draft, the Canes could have all five starters back. They could make a move.

I agree that N.C. State has potential now that they have a quality coach. The recent loss of Uchebo really hurts -- they do have a problem in the post. But I like their young backcourt ... assuming Ryan Harrow doesn't leave (he's been visibly unhappy with the coaching change). Maybe Gottfried can get through to the talented but brain-dead Leslie.

Virginia is definitely on the rise. They get Mike Scott back and have a guy -- redshirt James Johnson -- who is anoher 6-8 beast. They are going to be MUCH stronger in the post. They have plenty of young talent on the wing. What they don't have is a quality point guard (Evans can do it defensively).

Virginia Tech was saved by their problems this year. Dorenzo Hudson and JT Thompson should have graduated, but the injuries that forced their return will help the program make a quick transition. They should also get Cadarian Raines back. With Green, Davila and Eddie, that's not a bad core. Plus they add a strong recruiting class. I expect to see them on the bubble again.

Georgia Tech should be a bit better, even if Shumpert does go. Their young big guys should get better and I know their coaching will be better. The key will be whether Gregory can keep recruit Bobby Parks, who should step in and make them forget the erratic Shumpert.

Clemson and BC will both take a major tumble. I love Brownell and what he's doing, but he has to replace his two best players (Stitt and Grant). I don't see any impact guys in his recuiting class. Donohue basically has to reload -- with Jackson in the draft, Dallas Elmore is his most experienced player returning. He does have a big recruiting class, but they are going to be a lot like Wake last year (exceot better coached).

Speaking of Wake, they have a chance to be better, assuming no more losses (Stewart and probably Tabb gone). Not a lot better, but not 1-15 bad either. Maybe 3-13 or 4-12.

But we have to wait and see what the underclassmen in the draft do before we come up with any meaningful rankings.

[CDu]

UNC will be the heavy favorites. We will be considered heavy favorites for the #2 spot. We have the potential to beat out UNC, but they have far fewer questions and more returning top-end talent.

After UNC and Duke, there's a likely dropoff.

Miami could be really good if they get Johnson back and if they get a good coach. They have the best returning guard tandem in the conference and lots of returning players. But they have to prove that they can play even when Johnson is off the court, and they can't be completely reliant on hitting 3s.

Maryland could be good if Williams comes back, but they have such an inconsistent perimeter. If Williams goes, they'll be mediocre/bad.

FSU will again be big, physical, and defensive-oriented. However, they still have huge questions offensively. If they could get any interior scoring and a good PG, they'd be very interesting. But right now, it looks like they'll have to ugly it up again.

VT will probably be mediocre yet again. They get some nice players back but they lose their heart and soul (Delaney) and their most talented post player (Allen).

NCSU is a huge question mark. They have some talent, but that talent hasn't shown any signs of playing together for 40 minutes. I don't know whether Gottfried can get them to do so or not. They could win 10 games or just 5-6.

UVa has a great coach and will benefit from getting Scott back. But they just don't seem good enough at the other spots to be more than mediocre.

GT could be interesting if they got Shumpert back. Without him, they just don't seem very interesting.

BC, Clemson, and Wake just don't seem to have enough talent next year.

[sagegrouse]

This is one of those decision theory deals where the prediction is obvious but the explanation is long-winded.

(a) UNC was a top ten team returning all starters plus adding talent that will definitely play (McAdoo and Hairston). UNC should be national #1 preseason.

(b) Duke is a top five team, losing two stars (3 counting KI), but returning three starters and two other players averaging 20 minutes per game. Duke adds Austin Rivers, who seems certain to start (I know, I know...) plus other highly ranked talent. Duke has question marks but should be a national top ten team and at the top of the ACC.

(c) FSU was clearly the third best team in the conference, but lose Singleton (who saw limited service do to injuries) and Derwin Kitchen. Given the questions elsewhere, they retain its third spot and have a fighter's chance to compete with Duke for #2 (although I personally don't concede #1 to anyone).

In point of fact, there were 20 players who received All-ACC honors this year. The first three teams plus five who received at least ten points in the balloting. The return stats on these twenty players are really weird and a bit scary:


Ten were listed as seniors and are done.

One (Singleton) is an early entry who has signed with an agent.

Four (J. Williams, Schumpert, R. Jackson and R. Johnson) have filed but not signed with an agent. I consider them "gone" until there is indication to the contrary.

Five are returning. Four of these are returning to UNC. Mason Plumlee (HM) is returning to Duke.


In other words, there is no player in the top 20 definitely returning next year except for UNC (4) and Duke (1).

I guess my thinking is as follows: Clemson (9-7) returns all but its two best players and is the leading candidate for fourth place.

Everyone else is a non-factor.


Maryland (7-9) absent Williams is a mess, losing its only effective inside player as well as over 50% of minutes and points. Gary will need to work miracles.

BC (9-7) loses everybody. Forget them as a contender.

VT (9-7) lost almost everyone except the injury redshirts. Forget them.

Virginia (5-11) loses Farrakhan and Sherrill but get big guys Scott and Johnson back onto the team. 8-8 would be really good.

Miami (6-10), State (5-11), and Georgia Tech (5-11) are troubled teams who lost coaches. Miami's was at least voluntary and he got a better job. Expecting any of these teams to be a contender seems ridiculous.

Wake 1-15 was awful and will be better but no guarantee the Deacs will win more than 3-4 ACC games.


sagegrouse

[Vincetaylor]

This is one of those decision theory deals where the prediction is obvious but the explanation is long-winded.

(a) UNC was a top ten team returning all starters plus adding talent that will definitely play (McAdoo and Hairston). UNC should be national #1 preseason.

(b) Duke is a top five team, losing two stars (3 counting KI), but returning three starters and two other players averaging 20 minutes per game. Duke adds Austin Rivers, who seems certain to start (I know, I know...) plus other highly ranked talent. Duke has question marks but should be a national top ten team and at the top of the ACC.

(c) FSU was clearly the third best team in the conference, but lose Singleton (who saw limited service do to injuries) and Derwin Kitchen. Given the questions elsewhere, they retain its third spot and have a fighter's chance to compete with Duke for #2 (although I personally don't concede #1 to anyone).

In point of fact, there were 20 players who received All-ACC honors this year. The first three teams plus five who received at least ten points in the balloting. The return stats on these twenty players are really weird and a bit scary:


Ten were listed as seniors and are done.

One (Singleton) is an early entry who has signed with an agent.

Four (J. Williams, Schumpert, R. Jackson and R. Johnson) have filed but not signed with an agent. I consider them "gone" until there is indication to the contrary.

Five are returning. Four of these are returning to UNC. Mason Plumlee (HM) is returning to Duke.


In other words, there is no player in the top 20 definitely returning next year except for UNC (4) and Duke (1).

I guess my thinking is as follows: Clemson (9-7) returns all but its two best players and is the leading candidate for fourth place.

Everyone else is a non-factor.


Maryland (7-9) absent Williams is a mess, losing its only effective inside player as well as over 50% of minutes and points. Gary will need to work miracles.

BC (9-7) loses everybody. Forget them as a contender.

VT (9-7) lost almost everyone except the injury redshirts. Forget them.

Virginia (5-11) loses Farrakhan and Sherrill but get big guys Scott and Johnson back onto the team. 8-8 would be really good.

Miami (6-10), State (5-11), and Georgia Tech (5-11) are troubled teams who lost coaches. Miami's was at least voluntary and he got a better job. Expecting any of these teams to be a contender seems ridiculous.

Wake 1-15 was awful and will be better but no guarantee the Deacs will win more than 3-4 ACC games.


sagegrouse

In other words, ACC basketball will be even more difficult to watch next year than it was this year. Even worse for us, because UNC should be way ahead of the pack. I miss the good old days of college hoops. The quality of play just gets worse every year it seems like.

[Devilsfan]

Can't wait til January when the disgruntled unc bench stars becoming envious of all the attention Zeller, Henson, Marshall and HB are getting especially #5 if he is a backup behind a freshman or two.

[Olympic Fan]

In other words, ACC basketball will be even more difficult to watch next year than it was this year. Even worse for us, because UNC should be way ahead of the pack. I miss the good old days of college hoops. The quality of play just gets worse every year it seems like.

I don't see it as near that negative ...

Yeah, Miami, Georgia Tech and State WERE troubled teams who lost their coaches. State and Georgia Tech have replaced them with better coaches. I suspect Miami will too. All three retain nice cores ...

State, Virginia, Wake, Georgia Tech and UNC should be better next year. Florida State will be just bout as good.

Maryland and Miami will be better too, if their big men come to their senses and pull out of the draft.

BC will be much worse, Clemson a little worse and Duke will take a step back. Not as sure about Va Tech ... they probably take a littke step back with the loss of Delaney and Allen (and Bell), but they never won anything with those guys anyway. They have a nice core and a very good recruiting class. They need a fresh start. I think they'll end up being almost a good next season as they were this season.

They won't be contenders. The only contenders will be UNC and maybe Duke and FSU as longshots.

But overall, the league will be better. And with some of the recent coaching upgrades (Bennett for Leito; Gregory for Hewitt; Gottfried for Lowe; Donohue for Skinner; Brownell for Purnell), the outlook for the ACC is better than it has been.

[MarkD83]

The positive thing about next year is that Duke will be very talented but with low expectations. At least as low as you can expect for a top 5 team.

Duke probably will be favored in all their ACC games except against UNC and won't be expected to win the ACC (regular season or tournament). However, the talent is there to challenge UNC. The issue will be effort and coaching and I like what Duke always brings to the table in those categories.

Should be a much more enjoyable season than parts of 2010-11 due to lower expectations.

[shoutingncu]

Can't wait til January when the disgruntled unc bench stars becoming envious of all the attention Zeller, Henson, Marshall and HB are getting especially #5 if he is a backup behind a freshman or two.

I assume you mean Strickland, #1 (Marshall is #5 and on your list of attention-getters). However, you could have been referring retrospectively to #5 Jackie Manuel, whose offense was non-existent and way behind Strickland's, but was still a starter due to his defense. I think #1 will be fine.

(Of course, you could also have meant the fifth starter, and therefore were not referring to jersey numbers at all)

[pless55]

I think Duke will give Carolina fits by February and late March. Don't be suprised if we have a season like the Tar Heels. Start out slow and finish strong. If we go to the Elite Eight like the Tar Heels great season. Remember Rivers will be like Barnes but if he makes an impact like that ACC Rookie of the Year. Miami will be good if Johnson returns?? Why did he declare for the draft?? Grant and Scott are beasts at the guard slots and Adams off the bench can shoot. They could challenge for third place if they get a good point guard. But, like State have issues. Blow leads.

[sagegrouse]

I don't see it as near that negative ...

Yeah, Miami, Georgia Tech and State WERE troubled teams who lost their coaches. State and Georgia Tech have replaced them with better coaches. I suspect Miami will too. All three retain nice cores ...

State, Virginia, Wake, Georgia Tech and UNC should be better next year. Florida State will be just bout as good.

Maryland and Miami will be better too, if their big men come to their senses and pull out of the draft.

BC will be much worse, Clemson a little worse and Duke will take a step back. Not as sure about Va Tech ... they probably take a littke step back with the loss of Delaney and Allen (and Bell), but they never won anything with those guys anyway. They have a nice core and a very good recruiting class. They need a fresh start. I think they'll end up being almost a good next season as they were this season.

They won't be contenders. The only contenders will be UNC and maybe Duke and FSU as longshots.

But overall, the league will be better. And with some of the recent coaching upgrades (Bennett for Leito; Gregory for Hewitt; Gottfried for Lowe; Donohue for Skinner; Brownell for Purnell), the outlook for the ACC is better than it has been.

I went back and read my post, and it WAS kinda negative. The OP question, however, was, "[C]ould anybody name any other schools that could contend with Duke and North Carolina next year." I interpreted that as meaning, "win 11-12 games."

Which of the teams other than UNC, Duke and FSU could surprise. Well, Maryland, if Jordan Williams returns. Freshmen guards Stoglin and Howard look like a good base for the future, and Icelander Palsson will return. Gary Williams is a good coach, who can put a competitive product on the floor. I am doubtful, however, about the guys in the draft, and there was a note in the WaPo about J. Williams not being in class.

Virginia also needs to be on that list. The return of Scott, who scored over 15 PPG before his season-ending injury, the availability of beefy redshirt James Johnson, and the maturity of the six (six!) FR on last year's roster looks good. UVa did not have nearly enough horses in 2011 to compete, so success is a guess. With the return of a player that would have been on the all-conference list and the coaching of T. Bennett, the Cavs could be a surprise contender, but this is an extrapolation. 8-8 is a good season for the Hoos.

Sorry to be negative about VT and State, but I have been hearing (and making) positive predictions of these teams for years, and they have seldom come through. They are clearly in the "show me" category.

sagegrouse

[loldevilz]

I think after UNC, Duke, FSU, and Maryland, the two teams that have a chance to be the best are NC State and Miami. Both are team with a bunch of talent that underachieved last year due to poor coaching.

With the Gottfied hire I wouldn't be surprised to see NC State in the top 3 in the ACC.

[burns15]

I think Duke will give Carolina fits by February and late March. Don't be suprised if we have a season like the Tar Heels. Start out slow and finish strong. If we go to the Elite Eight like the Tar Heels great season. Remember Rivers will be like Barnes but if he makes an impact like that ACC Rookie of the Year. Miami will be good if Johnson returns?? Why did he declare for the draft?? Grant and Scott are beasts at the guard slots and Adams off the bench can shoot. They could challenge for third place if they get a good point guard. But, like State have issues. Blow leads.

Scott is a good point guard

[Indoor66]

With the Gottfied hire I wouldn't be surprised to see NC State in the top 3 in the ACC.

I think they will, maybe, be better, but I put this statement in the class of "unreasonable expectation."

[dukeballboy88]

I still think Duke will be the team to beat. I think unc will have the same flaws as it did last year with only 1 shooter now in hairston and no back up pg. They will be very good down low but even down low they dont have a dominate scorer. hb at the 3 will be the only position I see unc being a lil better than Duke but Dukes guard play will be better. Seth Curry will emerge as a scoring pg much like Nolan last year and AR will be a dynamic scorer in K's offense. I think this is the year Mason Plumlee shows why he is a lottery pick as he takes it to the next level.

K drew the blueprint up on how to beat this unc team in the ACC tourney final this year. Get up on marshall as soon as he hits the other 3 pt line, deny the sprint out lanes so they cant get the push ahead, stay with your man and make marshall hit a shot. As long as they have marshall running the point, I think unc is vulnerable To me km#5 is just an average pg who cant go right or make a lay up. I still think Duke wins the acc and acc tourney.

[shoutingncu]

I still think Duke will be the team to beat. I think unc will have the same flaws as it did last year... I still think Duke wins the acc and acc tourney.

Well, only one of those things happened last year (arguably, the more important, but still only one).

[pless55]

Yeah Scott is a beast. Grant is a good player too. If Johnson returns I think they have a shot to be top five ACC. If they get a quality coach they could finish three or four.