JasonEvans
04-12-2011, 01:55 PM
a few days ago I came across this comment about Gerald Henderson’s recent play in the Dukies in the NBA thread. I thought it would make for an interesting separate thread.
I think Gerald will be... eventually one of the top 2 Duke players all time in the NBA.
Whoa. Those are some pretty heady expectations you are putting on Henderson.
That said, the quest to be the #2 Dukies of all-time in the NBA is currently not a huge mountain to climb.
There is no question that Grant Hill, future Hall of Famer, is #1. Grant is a 7-time All-Star who was well on his way to being one of the 30 or so greatest players of all-time prior to his injury. Post-injury, he has still been a consistently very good player. He will be in the Hall of Fame.
Grant is the leading career scorer from Duke. In fact, here is the list of the top NBA scorers from Duke --
1. Grant Hill - 16500
2. Elton Brand – 15000
3. Jeff Mullins – 13000
4. Corey Maggette - 12600
5. Jack Marin – 12500
So, after Grant, who is #2.
Lets put Gerald aside for the moment, as his career has simply been too short to make any meaningful judgment. It is possible that Bobby Hurley or Jason Williams could have been a part of this conversation, but injuries took care of that.
So, who are the other contenders?
Mike Gminski had a very good career (14 years, almost 11k points, 6k rebounds) but never made an All-star game. He was a solid player, to be sure, but never one who was the kind of player who would lead a team to the playoffs or make a deep run. I don’t think he is #2 all-time.
Christian Laettner's career was very similar to G-Man in terms of total stats (13 seasons, 11k points, a bit less than 6k rebounds). But Christian arrived at those stats by a strong start to his career followed by a gradual decline into mediocrity. Through 5th season in the NBA, Christian had been a mid-upper teens scorer with around 8 boards per game. He made an All-star game his first full season with Atlanta and seemed primed, at age 26, to be a consistent all-star over the next half decade. But something happened and his career went downhill. His scoring average dipped into the low teens and then into the single digits. His career decline coincided with the birth of his first child and there are some NBA observers who have said that he became more focused on his family than on basketball. Hard to fault the guy for that if that is indeed the case. Regardless, his career is not the 2nd best of any Dukie in the NBA.
One could make an argument for Shane Battier, the king of the intangibles, as the second-best all-time Dukie. But Shane’s overall statistics are so middling that it makes this a tough argument to make. Could we possibly say that a guy who has averaged double digit scoring only 3 times in his 10+ year career is the second best Dukie of all-time in the NBA? I just don't think so.
It is possible to see Luol Deng contending for this honor. His career is still fairly young and he is yet to make a single all-star game, but he appears to be a key player on a Bulls club that is rapidly turning into one of the NBA’s elite. Luol’s career scoring average of 16.0 ppg is 7th best all-time among Dukies in the NBA. His 6.4 rpg is also 7th best. He’s only 25 so it is very reasonable to expect him to improve those numbers over the next few years. I think it is too early to anoint him with this honor, but he is very much in the conversation.
Corey Maggette is another possibility. From his 4th thru his 11th season in the NBA, he was a big-time scorer. You could pretty much book him for 17-22 ppg per season, which is quite impressive. But, his rep is that of a gunner who puts his head down and barrels to the basket when he gets the ball. He’s been effective at it (one of the best at drawing fouls in the league), but I don’t think his game is complete enough to really be the #2 Dukie of all-time in the NBA. It is also worth noting that Corey has played on a series of really bad teams. He’s only made the playoffs once in his career. While I don’t want to hold that against him too much, it is a factor.
That pretty much leaves us with the two guys who I think are competing for the #2 spot behind Grant – Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer.
Elton is the 2nd leading scorer in terms of total points and 2nd to Bob Verga (only played 6 seasons) in PPG with a career 18.8 ppg average. Elton is first in total rebounds (7600), and 3rd in RPG with 9.6. He was a Rookie of the Year, made All-NBA 2nd team once, and has 2 All-Star game appearances. And yet, his career seems disappointing because of the injuries that have dogged him the past few years. Through age 27 (his first 8 years in the league), you could book him for about 20 ppg and 10 rpg… which is really hard to achieve and puts you among the elite power-players in the game. But then he got hurt and his production has really declined the past few seasons. Elton is another Dukie who has been cursed to play on really bad teams. He too has only one playoff appearance in his career. It is just hard to etch your name in stone on the Greatest of All-Time honor role when you rarely play a meaningful game after February.
That is why my vote for the 2nd best Dukie all-time in the NBA goes to Carlos Boozer. His stats are very comparable to Elton’s (4th in PPG, 2nd in RPG). Like Elton, he has played in 2 All-star games and was a 3rd team All-NBA player one season. But, unlike Elton, Carlos has been able to bounce-back from injuries and maintain his stellar play. He continues to be an 18-20 ppg and 10 rpg player to this day and would seem to be on course to continue that pace for the next several years (he’s not yet 30 years old). But, significantly, he has consistently played on winning teams. He’s been in the playoffs, often deep in the playoffs, in each of the past 4 years and is on one of the championship favorites this season. I fully expect Carlos to be wearing a championship ring at some point in the next few years… and he will have been one of the best players on his team to get them to that ring.
--Jason "So, that is why I vote for Carlos. Who do you vote for?" Evans
I think Gerald will be... eventually one of the top 2 Duke players all time in the NBA.
Whoa. Those are some pretty heady expectations you are putting on Henderson.
That said, the quest to be the #2 Dukies of all-time in the NBA is currently not a huge mountain to climb.
There is no question that Grant Hill, future Hall of Famer, is #1. Grant is a 7-time All-Star who was well on his way to being one of the 30 or so greatest players of all-time prior to his injury. Post-injury, he has still been a consistently very good player. He will be in the Hall of Fame.
Grant is the leading career scorer from Duke. In fact, here is the list of the top NBA scorers from Duke --
1. Grant Hill - 16500
2. Elton Brand – 15000
3. Jeff Mullins – 13000
4. Corey Maggette - 12600
5. Jack Marin – 12500
So, after Grant, who is #2.
Lets put Gerald aside for the moment, as his career has simply been too short to make any meaningful judgment. It is possible that Bobby Hurley or Jason Williams could have been a part of this conversation, but injuries took care of that.
So, who are the other contenders?
Mike Gminski had a very good career (14 years, almost 11k points, 6k rebounds) but never made an All-star game. He was a solid player, to be sure, but never one who was the kind of player who would lead a team to the playoffs or make a deep run. I don’t think he is #2 all-time.
Christian Laettner's career was very similar to G-Man in terms of total stats (13 seasons, 11k points, a bit less than 6k rebounds). But Christian arrived at those stats by a strong start to his career followed by a gradual decline into mediocrity. Through 5th season in the NBA, Christian had been a mid-upper teens scorer with around 8 boards per game. He made an All-star game his first full season with Atlanta and seemed primed, at age 26, to be a consistent all-star over the next half decade. But something happened and his career went downhill. His scoring average dipped into the low teens and then into the single digits. His career decline coincided with the birth of his first child and there are some NBA observers who have said that he became more focused on his family than on basketball. Hard to fault the guy for that if that is indeed the case. Regardless, his career is not the 2nd best of any Dukie in the NBA.
One could make an argument for Shane Battier, the king of the intangibles, as the second-best all-time Dukie. But Shane’s overall statistics are so middling that it makes this a tough argument to make. Could we possibly say that a guy who has averaged double digit scoring only 3 times in his 10+ year career is the second best Dukie of all-time in the NBA? I just don't think so.
It is possible to see Luol Deng contending for this honor. His career is still fairly young and he is yet to make a single all-star game, but he appears to be a key player on a Bulls club that is rapidly turning into one of the NBA’s elite. Luol’s career scoring average of 16.0 ppg is 7th best all-time among Dukies in the NBA. His 6.4 rpg is also 7th best. He’s only 25 so it is very reasonable to expect him to improve those numbers over the next few years. I think it is too early to anoint him with this honor, but he is very much in the conversation.
Corey Maggette is another possibility. From his 4th thru his 11th season in the NBA, he was a big-time scorer. You could pretty much book him for 17-22 ppg per season, which is quite impressive. But, his rep is that of a gunner who puts his head down and barrels to the basket when he gets the ball. He’s been effective at it (one of the best at drawing fouls in the league), but I don’t think his game is complete enough to really be the #2 Dukie of all-time in the NBA. It is also worth noting that Corey has played on a series of really bad teams. He’s only made the playoffs once in his career. While I don’t want to hold that against him too much, it is a factor.
That pretty much leaves us with the two guys who I think are competing for the #2 spot behind Grant – Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer.
Elton is the 2nd leading scorer in terms of total points and 2nd to Bob Verga (only played 6 seasons) in PPG with a career 18.8 ppg average. Elton is first in total rebounds (7600), and 3rd in RPG with 9.6. He was a Rookie of the Year, made All-NBA 2nd team once, and has 2 All-Star game appearances. And yet, his career seems disappointing because of the injuries that have dogged him the past few years. Through age 27 (his first 8 years in the league), you could book him for about 20 ppg and 10 rpg… which is really hard to achieve and puts you among the elite power-players in the game. But then he got hurt and his production has really declined the past few seasons. Elton is another Dukie who has been cursed to play on really bad teams. He too has only one playoff appearance in his career. It is just hard to etch your name in stone on the Greatest of All-Time honor role when you rarely play a meaningful game after February.
That is why my vote for the 2nd best Dukie all-time in the NBA goes to Carlos Boozer. His stats are very comparable to Elton’s (4th in PPG, 2nd in RPG). Like Elton, he has played in 2 All-star games and was a 3rd team All-NBA player one season. But, unlike Elton, Carlos has been able to bounce-back from injuries and maintain his stellar play. He continues to be an 18-20 ppg and 10 rpg player to this day and would seem to be on course to continue that pace for the next several years (he’s not yet 30 years old). But, significantly, he has consistently played on winning teams. He’s been in the playoffs, often deep in the playoffs, in each of the past 4 years and is on one of the championship favorites this season. I fully expect Carlos to be wearing a championship ring at some point in the next few years… and he will have been one of the best players on his team to get them to that ring.
--Jason "So, that is why I vote for Carlos. Who do you vote for?" Evans