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adukeforduke
04-08-2011, 12:47 PM
I understand that this is pure speculation at this point but i am curious as to what our starting lineup will look like next year. Here is my version:

Curry, AR, Deandre Daniels (kid is super talented and duke is the heavy favorite at this point), Kelly, and Mason Plumlee.

We will have a deep bench with Miles, Quinn, MG, Andre, and maybe Thorton all seeing significant playing time. I think one of the deepest teams K has had in a LONG time.

I feel like we could take a few losses early in the season, but I look for this team improve quickly and make a deep push in the NCAA tourney.

Kedsy
04-08-2011, 12:51 PM
I understand that this is pure speculation at this point but i am curious as to what our starting lineup will look like next year. Here is my version:

Curry, AR, Deandre Daniels (kid is super talented and duke is the heavy favorite at this point), Kelly, and Mason Plumlee.

We will have a deep bench with Miles, Quinn, MG, Andre, and maybe Thorton all seeing significant playing time. I think one of the deepest teams K has had in a LONG time.

I feel like we could take a few losses early in the season, but I look for this team improve quickly and make a deep push in the NCAA tourney.

First of all, it's Thornton, not "Thorton." I only point this out because so many posters seem to misspell it.

As far as whether DeAndre Daniels will start (or even whether he will actually commit to Duke), we are currently discussing this on two other threads (the "DeAndre Daniels" thread and the "Next Year" thread).

Having said that, my bet is on Andre Dawkins starting at the SF position.

CDu
04-08-2011, 01:07 PM
I understand that this is pure speculation at this point but i am curious as to what our starting lineup will look like next year. Here is my version:

Curry, AR, Deandre Daniels (kid is super talented and duke is the heavy favorite at this point), Kelly, and Mason Plumlee.

We will have a deep bench with Miles, Quinn, MG, Andre, and maybe Thorton all seeing significant playing time. I think one of the deepest teams K has had in a LONG time.

I feel like we could take a few losses early in the season, but I look for this team improve quickly and make a deep push in the NCAA tourney.

A few things:

1. we don't yet have Daniels. so it seems a stretch to assume he'll be our starting SF next year
2. you seem to have left Hairston out of the mix entirely.

If I had to guess a starting lineup today (given that we don't have Daniels), I'd say:
Curry, Rivers, Dawkins, Kelly/Mason, Mason/Miles

I tend to not assume freshmen will start over upperclassmen unless the talent disparity is huge. I think we'll have lots of options to compete with these guys in Cook, Thornton, Gbinije, Hairston Marshall, and the non-starter out of Kelly and Miles (and Daniels if we get him). I don't think we'll play all that deep (8-9 guys with regular minutes), but we'll have lots of options from which to fill those rotation spots.

flyingdutchdevil
04-08-2011, 01:13 PM
I tend to not assume freshmen will start over upperclassmen unless the talent disparity is huge. I think we'll have lots of options to compete with these guys in Cook, Thornton, Gbinije, Hairston Marshall, and the non-starter out of Kelly and Miles (and Daniels if we get him). I don't think we'll play all that deep (8-9 guys with regular minutes), but we'll have lots of options from which to fill those rotation spots.

If only 8-9 players get regular minutes, who rids the pine? I assume that Curry, Dawkins, MP1, MP2, Kelly, Rivers, Thornton, Hairston, and Gbinije get minutes? Or do you see if differently?

Depending on Cook's knee, it will be interesting to see what he does. If 100% healthy, I think Cook can get starter minutes, especially if Curry isn't destined to play point. MP3 just lacks muscle so I assume he isn't playing much (side note: I really need to stop making fun of Henson's weight now that we have a similarly skinny player). If we get Daniels, I assume that he and Silent G will duke it out for minutes.

CLW
04-08-2011, 01:26 PM
Until Daniels signs the LOI I wouldn't consider him even in the fold and I am not entirely sure he starts over more experienced players.

Obviously the lineup is very fluid right now but my gut says this will be how we shake out:

PG: Curry (Thornton and Cook will see significant minutes as well)
SG: Rivers (Curry and Dawkins)
SF: Dawkins (Gbinije)
PF: Kelly (Miles and Hairston)
C: Mason (if MP2 bolts Miles starts)

Bluedog
04-08-2011, 01:31 PM
Start of the season:

Curry
Rivers
Dawkins
MP1/Kelly (depending on matchup)
MP2

I don't see how that would be different. Cook and TT compete to back up Curry, Curry plays some time at the 2, Silent G backs up Dawkins, Daniels (if he comes) and Hairston compete to get some time at the 3/4. That's 11 players though, so obviously not going to happen. Best 8-9 players in practice will play.

DukieinSoCal
04-08-2011, 01:48 PM
I bet Curry and Cook split the minutes at one guard spot opposite of Austin. Eventually, I think Cook will be the starter because he's quicker and more of a natural PG with great court vision.

When Seth is playing with Austin, I think he will bring the ball up the court but Austin will have the ball in his hands much more starting our half-court sets, kind of like Nolan this year. I have a couple reasons for this assumption. First of all, he seems to like creating and looking for his own shot, rather than catching and popping like JJ. Secondly, Seth is much better suited to catching and shooting than he is driving and creating. Seth is crafty but not very quick. So, in essence, Austin will playing the 1 a lot with Seth at the 2.

The SF spot should be an interesting battle between Andre, Mbinije, and Daniels if he comes. I wouldn't assume that Andre dominates the minutes just because he's been there for 2 years. First of all, he's a bit on the shorter end as a SF. But more than that, he's had problems keeping his focus at times, leading him to lose playing time. He also still needs to work on his ball-handling and driving skills. Mbinije seems more well-rounded as a player, ideal for the SF spot, but his outside shot seems a bit suspect at this point in his career and it seems like coach K really likes to have our SFs as threats from the 3-point line in order to stretch the defense. I haven't seem much of Daniels, but he might be the best of both worlds. He seems really athletic, with good range, and a good handle. He might turn out to be very much like Kyle with a bit more explosiveness. I would love to see him come to Duke so we can see what he can do.

InSpades
04-08-2011, 01:55 PM
I think next year's team will be unique in that there will be so many players at/near the same level of play. In the past we've had pretty clearly defined tiers of players. Next year I don't think that will be the case.

Locks to start:
Austin, Seth and Mason.

After that things could go a million different ways. Seems really likely that Ryan or Miles will also start. The last spot could really go anywhere. Initially I'd say Tyler or Andre are the frontrunners. I'm hoping it is Andre as I think he has a higher ceiling. Though that would leave the only 2 natural point guards coming off the bench.

Seth, Austin, Andre, Mason, Miles... seems like a good starting 5 to me.

superdave
04-08-2011, 02:40 PM
Even if they dont have as big a leap as Nolan had from sophmore year to junior year, I expect a leap of sorts out of these two guys. A similar point was made in the ACC Sports Journal this week (Featherston ghost wrote it perhaps?). Both have had good stretches and are more than capable offensive players. I would be they both average double-digits points next year (over 400 points for the season).

Nolan
Freshman year -500 minutes, 202 points
Sophmore year -734 minutes, 285 points
Junior year -1349 minutes, 660 points

Andre
Freshman year -477 minutes, 169 points
Sophmore year - 778, 298

Ryan
Freshman year -227, 47
Sophmore year - 743, 245

Wander
04-08-2011, 02:43 PM
No one's guessed Gbinije yet? Guess I'll be the first. He's a five star prospect who actually is "supposed" to play at small forward, not guard (but is a good shooter).

Rivers
Curry
Gbinije
Miles Plumlee
Mason Plumlee

Kelly and Dawkins get starter-like minutes, and Cook plays significantly, giving an 8-man rotation for most games.

DukieinSoCal
04-08-2011, 02:51 PM
Does anyone think we might actually be better off if Mason declares for the draft, albeit against better judgment? I just feel like there's such an offensive void down low when we have both Plumlees in the game. Neither one can really score without being set up. Maybe playing Kelly and/or Mike G at the 4 would be more effective. We might lose some rebounding and blocking but we might make up for it with scoring and team offensive execution.

CDu
04-08-2011, 02:54 PM
If only 8-9 players get regular minutes, who rids the pine? I assume that Curry, Dawkins, MP1, MP2, Kelly, Rivers, Thornton, Hairston, and Gbinije get minutes? Or do you see if differently?

Depending on Cook's knee, it will be interesting to see what he does. If 100% healthy, I think Cook can get starter minutes, especially if Curry isn't destined to play point. MP3 just lacks muscle so I assume he isn't playing much (side note: I really need to stop making fun of Henson's weight now that we have a similarly skinny player). If we get Daniels, I assume that he and Silent G will duke it out for minutes.

I won't pretend to know which ones will/will not get regular time. It could be that guys split the time - sometimes getting 2-5 minutes and sometimes getting 15-20 minutes. I use 1998 as my reference. By season's end, we had 11 ACC-caliber players. But the rotation was 8-9 guys.

I think Mason, Curry, and Rivers will certainly see major minutes. I'd expect the veterans (Dawkins, Kelly and Miles) will get regular time. From there, anything could happen with Cook, Thornton, Gbinije, Hairston, and Marshall (and Daniels if we get him).

But I don't see us playing an 11-man rotation.

jimrowe0
04-08-2011, 03:13 PM
No one's guessed Gbinije yet? Guess I'll be the first. He's a five star prospect who actually is "supposed" to play at small forward, not guard (but is a good shooter).

Rivers
Curry
Gbinije
Miles Plumlee
Mason Plumlee

Kelly and Dawkins get starter-like minutes, and Cook plays significantly, giving an 8-man rotation for most games.

Couldn't agree more, I think Gbinije will get the starting position. Also I would imagine we run some smaller line-ups with Dawkins at the 3. Am I the only one wanting Austin to run the point?

Kedsy
04-08-2011, 03:21 PM
Couldn't agree more, I think Gbinije will get the starting position. Also I would imagine we run some smaller line-ups with Dawkins at the 3. Am I the only one wanting Austin to run the point?

I'll be shocked if Mike G starts, although I hope he's good enough to play decent minutes as a freshman. As far as Austin is concerned, he'll have the ball in his hands more than any other player, but that doesn't make him a point guard. He'll look for his own scoring first, and he won't defend the opponent's PG.


Does anyone think we might actually be better off if Mason declares for the draft, albeit against better judgment?

No. I can't imagine anybody thinks that.

dcar1985
04-08-2011, 03:35 PM
Couldn't agree more, I think Gbinije will get the starting position. Also I would imagine we run some smaller line-ups with Dawkins at the 3. Am I the only one wanting Austin to run the point?

I finally feel like im not the only one....

I can easily seem Mike G earning that starting nod at the 3....his all around game is so solid, he's has a better handle than Dre, great size for the 3, his frame looks like he could easily put on sum lbs during the summer unlike Daniels who is rail thin....plus like I mentioned in the "Deandre Daniels' thread according to Jason Jordan's "ESPN sports writer" twitter JayJayESPNDime Mike G's HS coach said hes grown to 6'8.

Im expecting big things from Mike

jimrowe0
04-08-2011, 03:36 PM
Good point. Austin should have the ball in his hands, but will defend the 2. There will be plenty of healthy competition for starting spots next year.

burns15
04-08-2011, 04:01 PM
Does anyone think we might actually be better off if Mason declares for the draft, albeit against better judgment? I just feel like there's such an offensive void down low when we have both Plumlees in the game. Neither one can really score without being set up. Maybe playing Kelly and/or Mike G at the 4 would be more effective. We might lose some rebounding and blocking but we might make up for it with scoring and team offensive execution.

No..

Kedsy
04-08-2011, 04:04 PM
I finally feel like im not the only one....

I can easily seem Mike G earning that starting nod at the 3....his all around game is so solid, he's has a better handle than Dre

How much have you seen Mike G play? Even if you've seen him enough to make such pronouncements, I bet Andre looked like he had a great handle in high school, too.

Scorp4me
04-08-2011, 04:06 PM
Reading a basketball message board about incoming freshman is like that first date. All you see is the good and there none of the bad to weight them down. I think it'd be a safe bet that Rivers is the only freshman starting at the beginning of the season. You might lose, but you'd have the odds in your favor.

They're not going to start inside, not when we can't even decide who of Miles, Mason or Kelly is going to start there. Rivers gets one spot outside and Curry gets another I think most people agree with that. Curry started last year, did a great job and is a red shirt junior. Rivers is that rare incoming recruit like Irving and Williams and Hurley in the past who is just too good to sit. That last spot is an upperclassman's to lose right now.

Could Kelly play the 3 ala Dunleavey? Close maybe, but doubt it. Hariston? hasn't shown it yet, but maybe. Dre? I'd say he has the lead right now. Thornton play the one and push AR over? Good defensive tenacity and a great pg mentality, but not sure about that. Gbinije? I think he fits the need best, but maybe isn't the best fit yet. Daniels? Hasn't even committed yet. Am I leaving anyone out? It's not that the talent isn't there, just not the talent specifically talored for the missing piece.

Now will another freshman start during the season or at the end of the season? Quite possibly so, but by then they're Duke freshman, not incoming freshman.

dcar1985
04-08-2011, 04:17 PM
How much have you seen Mike G play? Even if you've seen him enough to make such pronouncements, I bet Andre looked like he had a great handle in high school, too.

Never had the opportunity to see him in person but have followed his game pretty closely for a couple years now and have probably seen every bit of footage there is available on him....and as someone who is a basketball enthusiast and is half decent at the game ive never thought Dre had a decent handle not even against lesser talented players...he jus doesn't look comfortable w/ the rock unless he's shooting it but that's my opinion and I really hope he works tirelessly on it over the summer

DukieInBrasil
04-08-2011, 07:02 PM
Nolan
Freshman year -500 minutes, 202 points
Sophmore year -734 minutes, 285 points
Junior year -1349 minutes, 660 points

Andre
Freshman year -477 minutes, 169 points
Sophmore year - 778, 298

Ryan
Freshman year -227, 47
Sophmore year - 743, 245

I like your research skills.

loldevilz
04-08-2011, 08:24 PM
I think it will be what most people seem to think, although I think Miles might start by the end of the year.

Seth Curry
Austin Rivers
DeAndre Daniels?
Ryan Kelly
Miles Plumlee

Bench: Mason Plumlee, Josh Hairston, Andre Dawkins

CajunDevil
04-08-2011, 10:24 PM
I'd really like to see a lineup (at some point) of Cook, Rivers, Silent G, Daniels (assuming he signs LOI) and Mason. Obviously, this won't be a starting lineup for a multitude of reasons, however to see this group in the game with their length, quickness and athleticism would be fun.

Kedsy
04-09-2011, 12:30 AM
I'd really like to see a lineup (at some point) of Cook, Rivers, Silent G, Daniels (assuming he signs LOI) and Mason. Obviously, this won't be a starting lineup for a multitude of reasons, however to see this group in the game with their length, quickness and athleticism would be fun.

You really want to see a lineup with four freshman? Hopefully only at the end of blowouts (of the good kind).

Saratoga2
04-09-2011, 12:44 PM
I think it will be what most people seem to think, although I think Miles might start by the end of the year.

Seth Curry
Austin Rivers
DeAndre Daniels?
Ryan Kelly
Miles Plumlee

Bench: Mason Plumlee, Josh Hairston, Andre Dawkins

Most likely starting lineup to begin the year will be:

Seth Curry PG
Austin Rivers SG
Andre Dawkins SF
Mason Plumlee PF
Ryan Kelly PF

Miles will get a lot of PT with Mashall and Josh getting spot time
Michael will get reasonable PT if he can defend and De Andre will also vie for the spot
Tyler and Quinn will get PT at the point

Later in the year, I would guess the starting PG will either change to Tyler or Quinn. Tyler is more composed and experienced, Quinn may be a little quicker.

Austin will probably stay as starter at SG with Seth as a backup

Andre will have to show growth to hold onto the starting Small Forward with Michael and DeAndre real options.

Miles, Mason and Ryan may swap starting roles throughout the season depending on game by game matchups.

NM Duke Fan
04-09-2011, 02:40 PM
What strikes me about next year's team is that in a way there are a lot of interchangeable parts, in that other than Rivers I don't yet see any outstanding near-complete basketball players who will be lottery picks or certain first rounders. Most of the players on the team have various weaknesses to work on to become more complete players, and which will be in the game as starters or for actual playing time might be highly influenced by matchups. As the season moves along hopefully a few of the players will really separate themselves as key starters and intrepid leaders. Until then, I hope there is some moderate experimentation with various line ups to find the best possible chemistry and teamwork.

Chris Randolph
04-09-2011, 02:40 PM
Everyone (self included) assuming Curry will get the nod at PG but I think Thornton may have something to say about that. Should be really good competition for 2 of the 3 guard spots.... I like the fact that Curry sports #30, much like Jon in the sense of more of a true 2 guard but becoming a scoring point guard......

I will not speculate as to the lineup, being that it is April 9 and SOOOOOOO much can happen before the first game

CajunDevil
04-09-2011, 03:02 PM
You really want to see a lineup with four freshman? Hopefully only at the end of blowouts (of the good kind).

Yes, I would like to see that lineup...that is why I typed it! I wouldn't get all hung up on their class distinctions, either. I think this lineup in a pressing context would be superb whether it's after the first tv timeout or midway through the second half.

Kedsy
04-09-2011, 03:11 PM
I think this lineup in a pressing context would be superb whether it's after the first tv timeout or midway through the second half.

Everyone's entitled to their opinion. Personally, I think a lineup with four freshman on the court would be error prone and thus significantly less than superb, and would in all likelihood treat us to a series of turnovers and missed defensive assignments. Obviously it's what Coach K thinks that counts, so we'll just have to wait and see.

Duke: A Dynasty
04-09-2011, 07:42 PM
Everyone's entitled to their opinion. Personally, I think a lineup with four freshman on the court would be error prone and thus significantly less than superb, and would in all likelihood treat us to a series of turnovers and missed defensive assignments. Obviously it's what Coach K thinks that counts, so we'll just have to wait and see.

Seems to work wonders for Kentucky.... Imagine if they had a good coach. But seriosly I do not have a problem with that lineup IF they turned out to be our best option but I do not see it either.

johnb
04-10-2011, 10:58 AM
there is a certain amount of handwringing about our players, which makes some sense since we've just lost our 3 most accomplished guys. nevertheless, we are returning 5 guys who started multiple games, 2 highly-touted rising sophs, and 4/5 high school all Americans. only a couple teams in the country wouldn't trade players in a heartbeat.

from my angle, I'd say we're underestimating almost everyone on the team. the only exceptions from my limited perspective are Seth and Austin, since I can imagine scenarios in which both aren't starters.

if we start a true point and Rivers, i can see andre or a freshman get the swing spot, with seth a 6/7th man. if we start a true point and seth, i cd see Austin being a super-talented 6th man, like maggette. i've only watched Rivers in a few games, but he may struggle to live up to the press clippings while he learns that he doesn't have to take over games and make so many mistakes in the process. Granted, most of my viewing was at all star games, a dunk contest, and a regularly-televised game, but he does play like a talented teenager. in other words, while Kyrie could have started for many NBA teams 6 months ago, Austin may need more experience playing against similarly-skilled players rather than being the (breathlessly-spoken) "number one recruit and son of doc rivers!!!"

ncexnyc
04-10-2011, 11:21 AM
1. Ryan Kelly will log more minutes than either Mason or Miles. Ryan got bigger during the last off season and he'll do it again this year. He's the only one out of that group who actually has an offensive game. He's underappreciated, but he'll surprise a lot of people next year.

2. This team wil set a school record for 3pt shot attempts and makes. Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, Cook, and Rivers. That's more bombers than the Strategic Air Command has.

3. By the end of the year, Quinn Cook will be the starting PG. I'm not counting on Daniels (if he even shows) nor MG. We'll go small and it'll rain 3's.

davekay1971
04-10-2011, 11:27 AM
My inside sources have revealed Coach K's plans for next year. Coach thinks it's pointless to wait until we find out whether Mason is staying and DeAndre is coming, how kids perform in pre-season practices, and the like, so he's gone ahead and fixed his lineups already. That way he can pack it in and join Roy on the golf course this summer. And speaking of The Man From The Mountains, Coach also realized that, since Roy won the ACC Regular Season Championship (you know, the REAL ACC championship) and got a round farther than the Blue Devils, Roy was the better coach. So K has now patterned his starting lineup and substitution patterns after Roy.

Therefore, the starting lineup will be based on seniority, with the exception of Austin, who, of course, was promised a starting spot to get him to come here.
PG: Seth
SG: Austin
SF: Andre
PF: Mason
C: Miles

At the 2nd TV timeout, regardless of performance, Coach will sub in:
PG: Tyler
SG: Quin
SF: MG
PF: Josh
C: R. Kelly

Daniels and MP3 will immediately be subbed in for whoever appears to have the hot hand, regardless of position.

There will also be 5 walk-ons on the bench, who are going to be called Blue Titanium because, you know, Titanium is stronger than steel. They will be used exclusively to express Coach K's rage and fury when 5 man unit 1 or 2 is not showing the proper intensity.

duke09hms
04-10-2011, 12:15 PM
2. This team wil set a school record for 3pt shot attempts and makes. Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, Cook, and Rivers. That's more bombers than the Strategic Air Command has.


There goes any hope of offensive balance if that happens. We've all seen our offense stagnate over the years, becoming over-reliant on the 3 and getting beat on transition off the long rebounds.

Greg_Newton
04-10-2011, 07:35 PM
Seems like Curry and Rivers are a lock for the backcourt, and Mason a lock for the frontcourt. So really, that leaves two forward spots up for grabs.

If Daniels commits, I would expect him and Dre to be neck in neck for the smaller forward spot. If not, it's Dre's to lose.

I think the last forward spot either goes to Ryan or Miles, and may go back and forth between them like it did this year. Daniels will probably take a few minutes at the 4 if he commits, but Ryan/Mason/Miles should still combine for 70-75 MPG.

Thornton might make a push because of his defense, but I don't expect him to be the starting PG for the long run next season.

I think Cook and Hairston will have to prove they're ACC-ready defenders for their positions before they crack the rotation, and I really have no idea about Gbinije. I think his minutes will roughly follow the pattern Dre's did his freshman year though.

timmy c
04-10-2011, 08:06 PM
My inside sources have revealed Coach K's plans for next year. Coach thinks it's pointless to wait until we find out whether Mason is staying and DeAndre is coming, how kids perform in pre-season practices, and the like, so he's gone ahead and fixed his lineups already. That way he can pack it in and join Roy on the golf course this summer. And speaking of The Man From The Mountains, Coach also realized that, since Roy won the ACC Regular Season Championship (you know, the REAL ACC championship) and got a round farther than the Blue Devils, Roy was the better coach. So K has now patterned his starting lineup and substitution patterns after Roy.

Therefore, the starting lineup will be based on seniority, with the exception of Austin, who, of course, was promised a starting spot to get him to come here.
PG: Seth
SG: Austin
SF: Andre
PF: Mason
C: Miles

At the 2nd TV timeout, regardless of performance, Coach will sub in:
PG: Tyler
SG: Quin
SF: MG
PF: Josh
C: R. Kelly

Daniels and MP3 will immediately be subbed in for whoever appears to have the hot hand, regardless of position.

There will also be 5 walk-ons on the bench, who are going to be called Blue Titanium because, you know, Titanium is stronger than steel. They will be used exclusively to express Coach K's rage and fury when 5 man unit 1 or 2 is not showing the proper intensity.

This is the sanest posting in this thread!

My sources informed me that Coach Collins and Coach Wojo will be checking the message boards in order to determine if these lineups are acceptable to the general populous at TDD and DBR.

jipops
04-10-2011, 08:25 PM
I'm more interested in what lineup is going to finish games, at least the ones that are close. It's safe to say that Austin will be in the mix and I feel like Andre will be there as well. The other big that will join Mason is interesting, perhaps it will depend on the match up or who has been the most effective in that particular game. Assuming Mason is still around we may have some of the stronger and experienced big man options than we have seen in some time.

NovaScotian
04-10-2011, 08:59 PM
I have to say, I'm a little surprised that only one tread has mentioned the possibility of Thornton starting at point over seth. Right now, Seth is the only player coming back who has ever started at that position. I agree that Seth is a lowly player, but don't we think coach mike would prefer playing a natural point guard in that spot, at least to start the season? Not that e hasn't had 'combo' types in that spot recently (aside from Irving we have to back to paulus), but Seth doesn't strike me as capable of making the switch. Are we assuming he can play point just because he 'brought the ball up' last year and his brother made the switch? I think if there's one thing we've learned about Seth, it's that as good as he played, he most certainly not as good as Stephen (which for optimists like me, was his ceiling).

Newton_14
04-10-2011, 09:18 PM
I have to say, I'm a little surprised that only one tread has mentioned the possibility of Thornton starting at point over seth. Right now, Seth is the only player coming back who has ever started at that position. I agree that Seth is a lowly player, but don't we think coach mike would prefer playing a natural point guard in that spot, at least to start the season? Not that e hasn't had 'combo' types in that spot recently (aside from Irving we have to back to paulus), but Seth doesn't strike me as capable of making the switch. Are we assuming he can play point just because he 'brought the ball up' last year and his brother made the switch? I think if there's one thing we've learned about Seth, it's that as good as he played, he most certainly not as good as Stephen (which for optimists like me, was his ceiling).

Sorry, but you have confused me a bit. What is your definition of "lowly player"? Maybe that is a typo for "lovely"??

At any rate, Seth is actually not the only player returning who has started at the point. Tyler actually started 3 games last year at the point and played good minutes off the bench at the point in other games where he did not start.

I won't be ready to discuss starting lineup's until the roster is set, but barring a total surprise, I would put my money on Seth and Austin being the two starters in the backcourt with both serving as combo guards. Tyler and Cook will likely come off the bench.

One player folks may be sleeping on is Hairston. I think Josh has a chance to improve enough over the summer to earn more minutes this coming season. He just needs to improve defensively, and gain confidence.

NovaScotian
04-11-2011, 12:05 PM
Sorry, but you have confused me a bit. What is your definition of "lowly player"? Maybe that is a typo for "lovely"??

At any rate, Seth is actually not the only player returning who has started at the point. Tyler actually started 3 games last year at the point and played good minutes off the bench at the point in other games where he did not start.

I won't be ready to discuss starting lineup's until the roster is set, but barring a total surprise, I would put my money on Seth and Austin being the two starters in the backcourt with both serving as combo guards. Tyler and Cook will likely come off the bench.

One player folks may be sleeping on is Hairston. I think Josh has a chance to improve enough over the summer to earn more minutes this coming season. He just needs to improve defensively, and gain confidence.

my mistake - i typed lowly instead of lovely.

the idea of having two combo guards isn't historically a very duke thing to do though, and this is why i think tyler will start.

flyingdutchdevil
04-11-2011, 12:11 PM
my mistake - i typed lowly instead of lovely.

the idea of having two combo guards isn't historically a very duke thing to do though, and this is why i think tyler will start.

Didn't we recently win a national championship with 2 combo guards?

It may not be a very Duke thing, but Coach K knows how to execute it fairly well.

uh_no
04-11-2011, 12:16 PM
the idea of having two combo guards isn't historically a very duke thing to do though, and this is why i think tyler will start.

The only thing that's a "historically very duke thing" is playing hard fundamental basketball. After that, we've had teams with combo guards, no guards, trees, wallabees, and everything inbetween. K has been successful with a variety of styles, and he'll do what he thinks will give next year's team the best chance to win.

MChambers
04-11-2011, 12:32 PM
The only thing that's a "historically very duke thing" is playing hard fundamental basketball. After that, we've had teams with combo guards, no guards, trees, wallabees, and everything inbetween. K has been successful with a variety of styles, and he'll do what he thinks will give next year's team the best chance to win.

And man-to-man defense. Although the exact nature of the man-to-man defense may be tweaked to fit the personnel.

kylecpalmer
04-11-2011, 12:57 PM
I will be the first to say this...I really like Curry..with that said, he is not a point guard. We either need Thornton or Cook handling the ball most of the time..I will even live with Rivers handling the ball. Here is the starting 5

1-Cook
2-Rivers
3-Dawkins
4-Kelly
5-Mason

Obviously no one knows what the starting 5 is going to look like, and it really doesnt matter. The best players will get significant time.

The Gordog
04-11-2011, 01:14 PM
I will be the first to say this...I really like Curry..with that said, he is not a point guard. We either need Thornton or Cook handling the ball most of the time..I will even live with Rivers handling the ball. Here is the starting 5

1-Cook
2-Rivers
3-Dawkins
4-Kelly
5-Mason

Obviously no one knows what the starting 5 is going to look like, and it really doesnt matter. The best players will get significant time.

I really like Curry as well, for his defence. When he went down vs. AZ our D fell apart.

That said I think the only way Miles starts over Ryan is if the is an injury. Kelly had clearly earned the coach's trust by the last month of the season.

1-Curry
2-Rivers
3-Dawkins
4-Kelly
5-Mason

Five guys capable of scoring in bunches if Mason would develop a post move or two. I see big things for this team.

Kedsy
04-11-2011, 01:17 PM
I will be the first to say this...I really like Curry..with that said, he is not a point guard. We either need Thornton or Cook handling the ball most of the time..I will even live with Rivers handling the ball.

Austin Rivers will be handling the ball most of the time. This is why Seth Curry will start.

uh_no
04-11-2011, 01:18 PM
I really like Curry as well, for his defence. When he went down vs. AZ our D fell apart.

That said I think the only way Miles starts over Ryan is if the is an injury. Kelly had clearly earned the coach's trust by the last month of the season.

1-Curry
2-Rivers
3-Dawkins
4-Kelly
5-Mason

Five guys capable of scoring in bunches if Mason would develop a post move or two. I see big things for this team.

miles will start...at least at the beggining of the year. K values leaders on the floor ESPECIALLY seniors. In his books he talks about how he wants a senior taking the last shot....even if you have a star freshman. This combined with the fact that miles will likely be a captain I think puts him over the edge to starting, even if kelly pushes him out of that spot eventually.

jimsumner
04-11-2011, 05:43 PM
I find the certitude of many posters to be somewhat amusing. Seth will start. Ryan will start. Miles will start. Kind of like the sun will rise in the East and set in the West. No doubt.

I suspect the Duke coaches and players are a lot less certain. Assuming Duke signs Daniels, Duke should have 12 recruited players next season. I would be surprised to see Hairston starting next season and I would be very surprised to see Marshall Plumlee starting. Anyone else has a fighting chance and I strongly suspect we will see lots of different combinations.

My best guess is that Mason Plumlee and Austin Rivers are the players most likely to be season-long starters. But there are a lot of holes to be filled and a lot of candidates to fill them. Auditions should be ongoing and most interesting. Dividing 200 player-minutes in the fairest and most effective manner will not be easy.

ACniner
04-11-2011, 11:17 PM
I find the certitude of many posters to be somewhat amusing. Seth will start. Ryan will start. Miles will start. Kind of like the sun will rise in the East and set in the West. No doubt.

I suspect the Duke coaches and players are a lot less certain. Assuming Duke signs Daniels, Duke should have 12 recruited players next season. I would be surprised to see Hairston starting next season and I would be very surprised to see Marshall Plumlee starting. Anyone else has a fighting chance and I strongly suspect we will see lots of different combinations.

My best guess is that Mason Plumlee and Austin Rivers are the players most likely to be season-long starters. But there are a lot of holes to be filled and a lot of candidates to fill them. Auditions should be ongoing and most interesting. Dividing 200 player-minutes in the fairest and most effective manner will not be easy.

Agreed. As we all know, the starting five can and will evolve at certain intervals during the season. Coach K is all about player performance in practice, and with this many players, it will be the fairest way to distribute minutes. I believe we have a few players that are in the situation where their position is theirs to lose...not to say it won't happen.

1999ballboy
04-12-2011, 01:36 AM
That said I think the only way Miles starts over Ryan is if the is an injury. Kelly had clearly earned the coach's trust by the last month of the season.
I don't know about that. In fact, the last month of the season is precisely when Miles took Ryan's starting spot and was 2nd team all ACC tournament. I don't think we can know whether either will start at this point, unless Mason goes to the NBA, in which case you've got to think they both will. I do think they'll probably get about equal PT.

loldevilz
04-12-2011, 01:54 AM
I don't know about that. In fact, the last month of the season is precisely when Miles took Ryan's starting spot and was 2nd team all ACC tournament. I don't think we can know whether either will start at this point, unless Mason goes to the NBA, in which case you've got to think they both will. I do think they'll probably get about equal PT.

The reason Ryan will be more valuable than the Plumlees has to do with the fact that he can score the ball much better than the others. He has a nice midrange stroke and a post move or two. All the Plumlees have really shown is that they can catch a lob or occasionally hit a jump hook.

flyingdutchdevil
04-12-2011, 06:57 AM
Because speculation is awesome, I figured I might as well chime in here.

I agree with a lot of the posters that Curry, Rivers, Dawkins, MP1, and MP2 are the most likely starters. Right now.

I see either Thornton or Cook as the X factors. If either of those players can become comfortable with Coach K's demanding PG roles, play strong on-the-ball defense, and successfully distribute the ball, then I feel that they will warrant a starting spot down the line. This is a lot to ask and both players have a lot of work to get there. But with a team surrounded with scorers (Rivers, Curry, Dawkins) and players who can score if given the ball in the right spot (MP1, MP2, Kelly), a hard-nosed PG with strong defensive and distribution skills would be beautiful.

Just my two cents...

COYS
04-12-2011, 10:26 AM
Austin Rivers will be handling the ball most of the time. This is why Seth Curry will start.

I am sensing a phase post developing. Austin has the handle and quickness of a point guard, but did not play that role as a high schooler in large part because the team absolutely needed Austin to put up points every night. Next year, Austin will be surrounded by talented scorers. In a recent interview, Austin remarked that if K needs him to put up 30 points in a night, he'll shoot for 30. If he asks him to get 10 assists, he'll go for 10 assists. He is clearly readying himself to fill a slightly different role than he did in high school. I can't wait to see Austin suit up for Duke. If he shows that he is versatile enough to play the role of distributor as well as scorer, a lineup with Curry and Austin will not be lacking in play-makers at all.

As Jim Sumner said, at this point almost all the cards are up in the air. The team will be very versatile. The more ready Austin, Quinn, Michael, and Marshall are to contribute, the more versatile we will be. If DeAndre enrolls, it gives us even more options. I could see how a "big" lineup with Austin, Andre, DeAndre, and two of Mason, Miles, and Ryan could be incredibly effective (Austin would be able to shoot over shorter 1's all day long while the size of Mason, Miles, Ryan, or DeAndre would be extremely disruptive). I could also see how a "small" lineup with three guards, a big, and one of Mike G, DeAndre, or Josh could create havok pressing and running the court. I think it will come down to defense and on-court chemistry. With so many new faces, it is hard to predict how either of those factors will shake out.

roywhite
04-12-2011, 10:45 AM
I am sensing a phase post developing. Austin has the handle and quickness of a point guard, but did not play that role as a high schooler in large part because the team absolutely needed Austin to put up points every night. Next year, Austin will be surrounded by talented scorers. In a recent interview, Austin remarked that if K needs him to put up 30 points in a night, he'll shoot for 30. If he asks him to get 10 assists, he'll go for 10 assists. He is clearly readying himself to fill a slightly different role than he did in high school. I can't wait to see Austin suit up for Duke. If he shows that he is versatile enough to play the role of distributor as well as scorer, a lineup with Curry and Austin will not be lacking in play-makers at all.

As Jim Sumner said, at this point almost all the cards are up in the air. The team will be very versatile. The more ready Austin, Quinn, Michael, and Marshall are to contribute, the more versatile we will be. If DeAndre enrolls, it gives us even more options. I could see how a "big" lineup with Austin, Andre, DeAndre, and two of Mason, Miles, and Ryan could be incredibly effective (Austin would be able to shoot over shorter 1's all day long while the size of Mason, Miles, Ryan, or DeAndre would be extremely disruptive). I could also see how a "small" lineup with three guards, a big, and one of Mike G, DeAndre, or Josh could create havok pressing and running the court. I think it will come down to defense and on-court chemistry. With so many new faces, it is hard to predict how either of those factors will shake out.

Sounds about right.

After many years of watching Coach K develop his team, he usually starts this exercise with thoughts toward defense. What will the defensive style be? Who is ready to play the kind of defense he wants?

While I fully expect Austin Rivers to be a starter from the beginning, I'm sure K and the other coaches will be stressing defense to him in the early going. And the other freshmen can earn their playing time by learning and displaying good defense.

Always interesting to see how the master uses the available material to create a new portrait.

MChambers
04-12-2011, 12:14 PM
What will the defensive style be? Who is ready to play the kind of defense he wants?
Gotta think we'd play an extended pressure man to man with the depth we'd have, assuming that only Irving leaves and that Daniels (and perhaps Murphy) join the team).

Is a good question about who will play that kind of defense best. That's what worries me the most about next year. I don't think of anyone on the team as an outstanding defensive player. Obviously, there are a lot of guys who look to have the physical skills to be outstanding defenders, but none have proven it yet.

DukieInBrasil
04-12-2011, 04:25 PM
I
That said I think the only way Miles starts over Ryan is if the is an injury. Kelly had clearly earned the coach's trust by the last month of the season.


Which is why Kelly lost his starting spot to Miles in the last month of the season? Your argument doesn't hold water.
It may in fact be that Kelly earns the starting gig next year, but based on observable facts, like history, Miles would be the starter.
Things I like about Miles:superior interior defense and toughness, superior athleticism, decent passing, decent mid-range jumper, solid rebounding.
Things I like about Kelly: superior shooter, superior shot-blocker, superior passer, superior b-ball IQ, crafty rebounding, superior FT shooter.

My thought is that Ryan or Miles starting will depend on the other starters. Assuming Mason stays and Kyrie goes, there would be 3 other starters. Austin probably starts, so 2 other spots to be battled for by Andre, Seth, Quinn, TT, MG etc. I'm assuming Marshall won't start and since Alex Murphy hasn't decided whether he's coming in 2011 yet, I haven't included him. If Andre and Seth start along with Mason and Austin, I'd think that Miles would get the starting gig due to the plethora of outside shooters and lack of height/bulk. If TT or MG starts then Ryan might get the nod due to his superior 3pt shooting when compared to TT and seeing as how MG is taller than Andre, he could cover some of the rebounding chores for when Kelly is away from the blocks.

Duke: A Dynasty
04-12-2011, 04:25 PM
O man I man this is too tough right now. Especially if Alex Murphy does in fact come early and we get Daniels.


Guards:
Seth Curry (PG and SG)
Tyler Thornton (PG)
Quinn Cook (PG)
Austin Rivers (PG and SG)
Andre Dawkins (SG and SF)

Combo Forwards:
Michael Gbinije (SF)
Alex Murphy (SF and PF)
DeAndre Daniels (SF and PF)

Bigs:
Josh Hairston (SF and PF)
Ryan Kelly (PF and C)
Miles Plumlee (PF and C)
Mason Plumlee (PF and C)
Marshall Plumlee (C)

How many options for each position:
PG: 4
SG: 3
SF: 5
PF: 6
C: 4


*() denotes possible positions they may play/guard depending on the lineup


- I do not think Josh guards or plays SF at anytime next year but others have said it so I included it.

Newton_14
04-12-2011, 10:42 PM
O man I man this is too tough right now. Especially if Alex Murphy does in fact come early and we get Daniels.


Guards:
Seth Curry (PG and SG)
Tyler Thornton (PG)
Quinn Cook (PG)
Austin Rivers (PG and SG)
Andre Dawkins (SG and SF)

Combo Forwards:
Michael Gbinije (SF)
Alex Murphy (SF and PF)
DeAndre Daniels (SF and PF)

Bigs:
Josh Hairston (SF and PF)
Ryan Kelly (PF and C)
Miles Plumlee (PF and C)
Mason Plumlee (PF and C)
Marshall Plumlee (C)

How many options for each position:
PG: 4
SG: 3
SF: 5
PF: 6
C: 4


*() denotes possible positions they may play/guard depending on the lineup


- I do not think Josh guards or plays SF at anytime next year but others have said it so I included it.

Practices would be an absolute war if all of them are in the mix. K would have a gazillion pieces to work with with a variety of sizes, shapes, forms, and skillsets. It will be really interesting if both Daniels and Murphy end up on the active roster.

In the words of the infamous T.O.> Better get your popcorn ready, cause it's gonna be exciting...

Starter
04-12-2011, 11:18 PM
Practices would be an absolute war if all of them are in the mix. K would have a gazillion pieces to work with with a variety of sizes, shapes, forms, and skillsets. It will be really interesting if both Daniels and Murphy end up on the active roster.

In the words of the infamous T.O.> Better get your popcorn ready, cause it's gonna be exciting...

Absolutely. I'd be interested to see how Krzyzewski adapts to that sort of personnel. I think we'd see a lot more pressing, for one, with no need to worry about tiring guys out. And I could see them being an absolute terror on the break. It'd be very different from this year's team, which was built around two star players (after Kyrie's injury) and obviously had a smaller rotation with stellar results, but I'm already excited to see next year's team in action.

dcar1985
04-12-2011, 11:47 PM
Just for those who haven't got to see much of Mike's game....heres his most recent highlight film (he has like 8 vol.) from the last leg of his season.......http://youtu.be/7u5Wlst6LVE

pless55
04-13-2011, 12:03 AM
I excited about Dawkin's potential though. I could him getting a increase in scoring and love his game. I remember at Christmas talking to a fellow Duke fan and I told him Andre Dawkins has game. Mostly, love his jump shot think he could score in double figures next year. Only nineteen years old and remember he was a top ten caliber recruit.

uh_no
04-13-2011, 01:04 AM
O man I man this is too tough right now. Especially if Alex Murphy does in fact come early and we get Daniels.


Guards:
Seth Curry (PG and SG)
Tyler Thornton (PG)
Quinn Cook (PG)
Austin Rivers (PG and SG)
Andre Dawkins (SG and SF)

Combo Forwards:
Michael Gbinije (SF)
Alex Murphy (SF and PF)
DeAndre Daniels (SF and PF)

Bigs:
Josh Hairston (SF and PF)
Ryan Kelly (PF and C)
Miles Plumlee (PF and C)
Mason Plumlee (PF and C)
Marshall Plumlee (C)

How many options for each position:
PG: 4
SG: 3
SF: 5
PF: 6
C: 4


*() denotes possible positions they may play/guard depending on the lineup


- I do not think Josh guards or plays SF at anytime next year but others have said it so I included it.

Our roster was just as loaded this past year. I don't mean to sound like a spoilsport, but people made almost identical posts last year, and undeniably some of the players will become nonfactors. There is just no way that you can work a 13 man roatation...there would be no game flow at all. Look for the number to get thinned to <10, as is typical for K teams.

Players probably getting left out (IMO):
Marshall
all 3 guys you have listed as combo forwards
quinn cook

That leaves us with 8 guys
seth
austin
andre
tyler
ryan
mason
miles
josh

who I think will get the whales portion of the minutes. This isn't to say that one of those guys can't explode, each of the other incoming recruits is superceded by a more experienced, senior guy at his own position.

Duke: A Dynasty
04-13-2011, 05:34 AM
Our roster was just as loaded this past year. I don't mean to sound like a spoilsport, but people made almost identical posts last year, and undeniably some of the players will become nonfactors. There is just no way that you can work a 13 man roatation...there would be no game flow at all. Look for the number to get thinned to <10, as is typical for K teams.

Players probably getting left out (IMO):
Marshall
all 3 guys you have listed as combo forwards
quinn cook

That leaves us with 8 guys
seth
austin
andre
tyler
ryan
mason
miles
josh

who I think will get the whales portion of the minutes. This isn't to say that one of those guys can't explode, each of the other incoming recruits is superceded by a more experienced, senior guy at his own position.

I disagree with the just as loaded part of your comment because we lose 3 and gain 6. That is 3 extra possibilities to go with that we did not have last year and not to hate on Josh and Tyler but all 6 guys this year in my opinion are going to be better on the court. Now I could be wrong and Tyler or Josh do something to show me otherwise but I was not high on them in high school either and they have not changed my mind.

I also do not agree with you final 8 guys:

Seth
Austin
Andre
Quinn
DeAndre
Ryan
Mason
Miles

MarkD83
04-13-2011, 07:32 AM
With next year's proposed line-up I am sure we won't hear.

"Duke has no depth."
"Duke has not front court."
"Duke has not back court."
"Where is Duke going to find a third scorer."

What a refreshing change it will be to not hear some of these things.

In addition, I am beginning to enjoy all of the talk about how good UNC is going to be. Duke won't be favored to win anything so we can lower our expectations and enjoy every win and there will be plenty of them. Besides which we will have the line-up to beat UNC.

Duke: A Dynasty
04-13-2011, 09:05 AM
With next year's proposed line-up I am sure we won't hear.

"Duke has no depth."
"Duke has not front court."
"Duke has not back court."
"Where is Duke going to find a third scorer."

What a refreshing change it will be to not hear some of these things.

In addition, I am beginning to enjoy all of the talk about how good UNC is going to be. Duke won't be favored to win anything so we can lower our expectations and enjoy every win and there will be plenty of them. Besides which we will have the line-up to beat UNC.

I think we will still hear the first until one of our bigs average 12 and 10 or better just because its set in people heads we dont develop bigs.

As for a thrid scorer.... well we do not even know who our 1st and 2nd are yet let alone a 3rd since all three are leaving (Nolan, Kyle, Kyrie). I would assume Austin is gonna be one of the 3 primary scorers and Seth could become one as well but who else has got the consistency to bring in points every game? Too early in IMO to know as of right now.

COYS
04-13-2011, 09:26 AM
As for a thrid scorer.... well we do not even know who our 1st and 2nd are yet let alone a 3rd since all three are leaving (Nolan, Kyle, Kyrie). I would assume Austin is gonna be one of the 3 primary scorers and Seth could become one as well but who else has got the consistency to bring in points every game? Too early in IMO to know as of right now.

Dynasty, I agree with you here. We have excellent recruits coming in and a bevy of talented returnees. That being said, we are replacing two of the better players in Duke history in Kyle and Nolan plus an incredibly dynamic talent in Kyrie. We will be lucky enough to have upperclass leadership in Miles, Mason, Ryan, Andre and Seth, but we will also have a lot of inexperienced players, as well. It does seem that Austin will be one of Duke's primary scorers. I would be surprised if Seth doesn't fit the bill, as well. Beyond that, Andre, Ryan, and Mason all have the chance to step up, but none of these guys have averaged double figures at Duke and, in the case of Austin, some haven't even played a game at the NCAA level yet. IF Murphy and Daniels both enroll and neither redshirts, we will probably have one of the most loaded Duke teams in terms of the number of scholarship players. However, we have to see how players develop in the offseason, how the defense clicks, how on court chemistry works, how the games go in the non-conference schedule, how the ACC games shake out, etc. before we really have a good picture of what this team looks like.

Personally, I look to the returning players first. I see Mason dramatically improving his defense and playmaking on offense. I see Miles anchoring the middle. I see Kelly continuing to improve and finding more consistency. I see the same from Andre. I see Seth stepping up to run the offense and becoming one part of a high scoring back-court duo with Austin. These guys will be the core of the team. If we are to become an elite team next year, it will start with our veterans.

roywhite
04-13-2011, 09:29 AM
I think we will still hear the first until one of our bigs average 12 and 10 or better just because its set in people heads we dont develop bigs.

As for a third scorer.... well we do not even know who our 1st and 2nd are yet let alone a 3rd since all three are leaving (Nolan, Kyle, Kyrie). I would assume Austin is gonna be one of the 3 primary scorers and Seth could become one as well but who else has got the consistency to bring in points every game? Too early in IMO to know as of right now.

No double-figure scorer returns for Duke.

That's probably happened before, but I don't recall the last time.

Talk about sorting things out and defining roles.....what a challenge, but there's a lot to work with.

Duke: A Dynasty
04-13-2011, 09:41 AM
Dynasty, I agree with you here. We have excellent recruits coming in and a bevy of talented returnees. That being said, we are replacing two of the better players in Duke history in Kyle and Nolan plus an incredibly dynamic talent in Kyrie. We will be lucky enough to have upperclass leadership in Miles, Mason, Ryan, Andre and Seth, but we will also have a lot of inexperienced players, as well. It does seem that Austin will be one of Duke's primary scorers. I would be surprised if Seth doesn't fit the bill, as well. Beyond that, Andre, Ryan, and Mason all have the chance to step up, but none of these guys have averaged double figures at Duke and, in the case of Austin, some haven't even played a game at the NCAA level yet. IF Murphy and Daniels both enroll and neither redshirts, we will probably have one of the most loaded Duke teams in terms of the number of scholarship players. However, we have to see how players develop in the offseason, how the defense clicks, how on court chemistry works, how the games go in the non-conference schedule, how the ACC games shake out, etc. before we really have a good picture of what this team looks like.

Personally, I look to the returning players first. I see Mason dramatically improving his defense and playmaking on offense. I see Miles anchoring the middle. I see Kelly continuing to improve and finding more consistency. I see the same from Andre. I see Seth stepping up to run the offense and becoming one part of a high scoring back-court duo with Austin. These guys will be the core of the team. If we are to become an elite team next year, it will start with our veterans.

Yes I deff agree. I see a lot of guys from last years team who can score but its all about the consistency. Seth, Andre and Ryan all have the ability to score in bundles but do not always do it night in and night out. I think they do all improve this coming year but how much? Mason if he stays healthy I could see him scoring 10-12 ppg and Miles I hope will prove me wrong but I do not think his scoring improves much. I think his role is now set as the solid defender inside and the bruiser who takes and gives the hits inside to wear people down for the others to open up.

Out of the new guys Austin and Daniels (If we get him) are the scorers while Cook is a distributer and Michael is a do it all kind of guy who does the little things to win. Marshall is not expected to play much or possibly redshirt and we do not know if Murphy is coming a year early or not and if he does will he redshirt? So two out of this class could be good at scoring but as freshmen that number may not be as high as a senior who is regarded as a scorer. I look for Rivers to get around 17 per game or better despite being a frosh and if Daniels comes in I would gladly take 10 a night from him.

darjum
04-13-2011, 11:18 PM
First time contributor to DBR, however long time college basketball fan, Duke fan for about the last 5-6 years...why...at some point I found I would be quite annoyed after a Blue Devil loss (the wife said I was unbearable), therefore I dedicate more time thinking about the Duke basketball roster than I should!

In regards to next year my primary concern is that Mason Plumlee does indeed come back. He will be the defensive cog upon which K organizes his starting five. Therefore as long as he comes back, there's one starter.

The primary reason is that with an elite shot blocker & rebounder you can be a little more lenient with perimeter defense. We know that Duke will be uptempo next year (regardless of the DeAndre Daniels recruitment and Alex Murphy early graduation), but any Duke fan also knows that if you don't do your job defensively, K will sit you down.

I say this because we have no idea (apart from possibly Tyler Thornton) what defensively the freshmen & returners bring. Austin Rivers looks wonderful from the perspective of being an elite scorer, but will he be able to stay in front of his man? I would imagine, somewhat similar to Seth Curry, hell be a reasonable man to man defender who tends to jump the passing lanes a few too many times for my liking. However, in order to be a National Championship contender we need a player who in the last 2 minutes of a game opposition teams say "make somebody else beat us", basically making it easier for everybody else to score. Pencil in the second starter.

I'm a great believer that if talent is equal, you start experience. In relation to returning back court players it was obvious that Seth overtook Andre Dawkins in the coaching staff's eyes. Seth is a solid ball handler, elite shooter and ESPN will have some form of contract with Duke that ensures his family is shown on television at least 5-10 times a game (ha, ha)! Third starter done.

Let's get another point straight...Ryan Kelly is, and I repeat, is, a much better player than Miles Plumlee. Ryan has a knack for being in the right place both offensively and more importantly defensively most of the time. However, Miles plays a lot better when he starts than when he comes off the bench. Whilst Ryan still gives you production regardless of starting or not. If it were me I would start Ryan and take what I got from Miles (or Josh Hairston or one of the potential new players for next year)...so, starter number 4.

The last and most difficult choice for me...the fifth starter. Will it depend on who we play, for example you play against a team with an elite level point guard, hence you stick Tyler on him and allow Seth and Austin to be primary ball handlers. Do you go with a play maker such as Quinn Cook (don't know about you, but I would NOT want a freshmen point guard running a Coach K team to start the year-possibly by mid year?) Do you go with a taller option such as Michael Gbinije, Josh, DeAndre or Alex (again a bunch of freshman and one unproven sophomore)? In the end I go with Andre. Why? Loyalty and experience. Before the 2009-10 season when Gerald Henderson left for the NBA and Elliot Williams transferred to Memphis I was worried. Two scholarship guards! Then Andre graduated early, had his own family tragedy, hit two massive shots against Baylor and became one of my favorite Duke players. Plus he has one of the purest jump shots in all of basketball (pros included). Of course if he doesn't cut it defensively someone (and Duke sure may have some options next year) will take his starting job, but for now my last starter is Andre Dawkins.

Starters

Mason Plumlee
Ryan Kelly
Andre Dawkins
Seth Curry
Austin Rivers


With Duke's potential depth next year who knows what the overall rotation will look like, but those should be the starters to start the year, who knows who will be the starters come tournament time, but that's why we love coach K, earn your spot, nothing easy.

Saratoga2
04-14-2011, 07:22 AM
First time contributor to DBR, however long time college basketball fan, Duke fan for about the last 5-6 years...why...at some point I found I would be quite annoyed after a Blue Devil loss (the wife said I was unbearable), therefore I dedicate more time thinking about the Duke basketball roster than I should!

In regards to next year my primary concern is that Mason Plumlee does indeed come back. He will be the defensive cog upon which K organizes his starting five. Therefore as long as he comes back, there's one starter.

The primary reason is that with an elite shot blocker & rebounder you can be a little more lenient with perimeter defense. We know that Duke will be uptempo next year (regardless of the DeAndre Daniels recruitment and Alex Murphy early graduation), but any Duke fan also knows that if you don't do your job defensively, K will sit you down.

I say this because we have no idea (apart from possibly Tyler Thornton) what defensively the freshmen & returners bring. Austin Rivers looks wonderful from the perspective of being an elite scorer, but will he be able to stay in front of his man? I would imagine, somewhat similar to Seth Curry, hell be a reasonable man to man defender who tends to jump the passing lanes a few too many times for my liking. However, in order to be a National Championship contender we need a player who in the last 2 minutes of a game opposition teams say "make somebody else beat us", basically making it easier for everybody else to score. Pencil in the second starter.

I'm a great believer that if talent is equal, you start experience. In relation to returning back court players it was obvious that Seth overtook Andre Dawkins in the coaching staff's eyes. Seth is a solid ball handler, elite shooter and ESPN will have some form of contract with Duke that ensures his family is shown on television at least 5-10 times a game (ha, ha)! Third starter done.

Let's get another point straight...Ryan Kelly is, and I repeat, is, a much better player than Miles Plumlee. Ryan has a knack for being in the right place both offensively and more importantly defensively most of the time. However, Miles plays a lot better when he starts than when he comes off the bench. Whilst Ryan still gives you production regardless of starting or not. If it were me I would start Ryan and take what I got from Miles (or Josh Hairston or one of the potential new players for next year)...so, starter number 4.

The last and most difficult choice for me...the fifth starter. Will it depend on who we play, for example you play against a team with an elite level point guard, hence you stick Tyler on him and allow Seth and Austin to be primary ball handlers. Do you go with a play maker such as Quinn Cook (don't know about you, but I would NOT want a freshmen point guard running a Coach K team to start the year-possibly by mid year?) Do you go with a taller option such as Michael Gbinije, Josh, DeAndre or Alex (again a bunch of freshman and one unproven sophomore)? In the end I go with Andre. Why? Loyalty and experience. Before the 2009-10 season when Gerald Henderson left for the NBA and Elliot Williams transferred to Memphis I was worried. Two scholarship guards! Then Andre graduated early, had his own family tragedy, hit two massive shots against Baylor and became one of my favorite Duke players. Plus he has one of the purest jump shots in all of basketball (pros included). Of course if he doesn't cut it defensively someone (and Duke sure may have some options next year) will take his starting job, but for now my last starter is Andre Dawkins.

Starters

Mason Plumlee
Ryan Kelly
Andre Dawkins
Seth Curry
Austin Rivers


With Duke's potential depth next year who knows what the overall rotation will look like, but those should be the starters to start the year, who knows who will be the starters come tournament time, but that's why we love coach K, earn your spot, nothing easy.

I agree with your assessment of the beginning of the year starters. Starters for the more competitive games will no doubt be determined by matchups, performance in practice and development of new players. DeAndre and Alex are still open questions for this year, so it will be interesting to wait and see who does come into the roster.

Bob Green
04-14-2011, 09:11 PM
Here are the number of games each returning player has started in their career at Duke:

Miles Plumlee - 41
Mason Plumlee - 33
Ryan Kelly - 27
Seth Curry - 19
Andre Dawkins - 7
Tyler Thornton - 3

darjum
04-14-2011, 09:59 PM
I agree with your assessment of the beginning of the year starters. Starters for the more competitive games will no doubt be determined by matchups, performance in practice and development of new players. DeAndre and Alex are still open questions for this year, so it will be interesting to wait and see who does come into the roster.

If Alex or DD does come in for next year and they do prove in training camp and preseason to be as talented as some experts have made them out to be, would you have a problem with them starting from day one over a more experienced player? I don't think I would, but as my previous post suggests I believe those five players should get the benefit of the doubt.

DeBlueDevil
04-19-2011, 03:29 PM
Is it just me or are we going to be incredibly thin and vulnerable in the post next year? As I see it, unless Mason and Miles make HUGE improvements during the offseason...we will def not be very strong in the post. If you take a look over at UNC they've got 3 potential all american post players in Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo. I just think we need a lot of help down low to have a legitimate shot at a NC. Am I just worrying to much? What are your thoughts.

Class of '94
04-19-2011, 03:35 PM
Is it just me or are we going to be incredibly thin and vulnerable in the post next year? As I see it, unless Mason and Miles make HUGE improvements during the offseason...we will def not be very strong in the post. If you take a look over at UNC they've got 3 potential all american post players in Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo. I just think we need a lot of help down low to have a legitimate shot at a NC. Am I just worrying to much? What are your thoughts.

Mason and Miles will continue to improve; and we still have Ryan and Josh, who will also improve IMO. And while Zeller and Henson will be formadible, Mason and Miles proved in the second half of the Duke-Carolina game at Cameron and in the ACC tournament, that the Plumlees can more than hold their own against Zeller and Henson. And while McAdoo may be very good, I think Ryan's versaitility and an improved Josh H. will negate McAdoo' s effectiveness against us.

DeBlueDevil
04-19-2011, 03:39 PM
Actually, right after I posted my original message. I think we are just as talented if not more talented than UNC next year. Aside from Henson, Zeller, and Barneds (whom I think we have a couple of players who definitely can contain and matchup with) I think we have better players. So I agree....i was worrying to much

CDu
04-19-2011, 03:41 PM
Is it just me or are we going to be incredibly thin and vulnerable in the post next year? As I see it, unless Mason and Miles make HUGE improvements during the offseason...we will def not be very strong in the post. If you take a look over at UNC they've got 3 potential all american post players in Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo. I just think we need a lot of help down low to have a legitimate shot at a NC. Am I just worrying to much? What are your thoughts.

First, I'd slow down a bit on the praise of McAdoo. He's yet to set foot on campus and he's a potential All-American post player?

As for our team, we'll have four guys 6'9" or taller. Three of those guys will be upperclassmen with plenty of game experience and good size on their frames. And we'll have another other guy 6'8" with some college experience in the post. So thin and vulnerable in the post isn't the word I'd use to describe our frontcourt.

I do have some concerns about the versatility and ability to defend a variety of players among our frontcourt players (individually, that is - as a group they do have some diversity in skill set). But I don't have concerns about being thin and vulnerable there.

Wander
04-19-2011, 03:46 PM
I just think we need a lot of help down low to have a legitimate shot at a NC.

Actually, right after I posted my original message. I think we are just as talented if not more talented than UNC next year.

I know we want to win the national championship every year, but I'd recommend moving away from this line of thought for next season.

As for the other thing, I'm not going to join the "UNC is a shoo-in for the national title" crowd, but look at some projected NBA drafts for 2012. UNC has a ridiculous amount of talent - more pure talent than we do. Doesn't mean we can't take them in an individual game, of course.

CDu
04-19-2011, 03:49 PM
I know we want to win the national championship every year, but I'd recommend moving away from this line of thought for next season.

It would certainly be a surprise to win it next year. Well, it should be a surprise to win it any year. But I agree that the expectations might need to be tempered a bit going in.

Can we win a championship? Absolutely. Butler was a game away from winning (again) this year. UConn won it with a team that wasn't supposed to even be top-25 this year. Several things would have to go very right (both during the season and during the tournament).

Wander
04-19-2011, 03:55 PM
Can we win a championship? Absolutely. Butler was a game away from winning (again) this year. UConn won it with a team that wasn't supposed to even be top-25 this year. Several things would have to go very right (both during the season and during the tournament).

Yeah, I'm not saying never. Stranger things have happened, and it's not like I'm arguing we'll miss the tournament or anything. But I'm honestly shocked at how many top 5 preseason rankings people are giving us. I'd say Singler and Nolan were our two best players on BOTH ends of the court by a fairly wide margin. I think that's going to be much harder to make up for than most people realize.

CDu
04-19-2011, 04:09 PM
I'd say Singler and Nolan were our two best players on BOTH ends of the court by a fairly wide margin. I think that's going to be much harder to make up for than most people realize.

Yeah, we're going into this season with a LOT of question marks in terms of replacing both experience, leadership, and production. There will be a lot of talented players on the team next year, but it remains to be seen (a) how much progress our role players and freshmen can make and (b) how that talent gels together.

sagegrouse
04-19-2011, 04:20 PM
It would certainly be a surprise to win it next year. Well, it should be a surprise to win it any year. But I agree that the expectations might need to be tempered a bit going in.

Can we win a championship? Absolutely. Butler was a game away from winning (again) this year. UConn won it with a team that wasn't supposed to even be top-25 this year. Several things would have to go very right (both during the season and during the tournament).

There is no pressure on Duke except to play well. We got a bunch of very good players, some of whom -- especially in the front court -- will improve quite a bit. Just enjoy the prospects for the coming season. We're gonna win a bunch of games and play really well most of the time.

And who the heck knows what's gonna happen at the end of the season?

sagegrouse

DeBlueDevil
04-19-2011, 04:33 PM
First, I'd slow down a bit on the praise of McAdoo. He's yet to set foot on campus and he's a potential All-American post player?

As for our team, we'll have four guys 6'9" or taller. Three of those guys will be upperclassmen with plenty of game experience and good size on their frames. And we'll have another other guy 6'8" with some college experience in the post. So thin and vulnerable in the post isn't the word I'd use to describe our frontcourt.

I do have some concerns about the versatility and ability to defend a variety of players among our frontcourt players (individually, that is - as a group they do have some diversity in skill set). But I don't have concerns about being thin and vulnerable there.

1st I wanted to comment on the NC expectations. While I totally understand and agree to temper expectations year in and year out regarding winning a NC just on the sheer fact of how difficult it is with or without experience and talent. I still think thats the beauty of being a Duke fan is that every year there is a possibilitiy.

Earlier, I was just trying to just say that if that was going to be a possibility then we obviously need strong post play and that starts with the Plumlees. As for not being thin and vulnerable. Given the past few years of their foul troubles and inconsistent play I think its very valid to think we may be a little vulnerable when confronted with good post play against an opponent. Also, although we will have Kelly and Marshall...Ryan isn't the most physical player in the post and I dunno how realistic it is to think Marshall will contribute as much either. So it's just something that came to mind is all.

I do however think with a little improvement and given the fact when going up against Henson and Zeller in the past the Plumlees def held their own.

As for McAdoo I will def say that maybe predicting AA status next year is a bit of a stretch haha but for some reason after seeing him play a couple times in high school, and reading up on him recently, and seeing these recent all star game....I think this kid is going to be a problem for the next few years. Just a gut feeling is all

licc85
04-19-2011, 05:10 PM
Earlier, I was just trying to just say that if that was going to be a possibility then we obviously need strong post play and that starts with the Plumlees. As for not being thin and vulnerable. Given the past few years of their foul troubles and inconsistent play I think its very valid to think we may be a little vulnerable when confronted with good post play against an opponent. Also, although we will have Kelly and Marshall...Ryan isn't the most physical player in the post and I dunno how realistic it is to think Marshall will contribute as much either. So it's just something that came to mind is all.

I would throw Josh into that mix for the big men who will improve. He's got a terrific motor and a lengthy frame. I could definitely see him improving enough to be a solid rotation player, coming off the bench for energy and defense.

uh_no
04-19-2011, 06:29 PM
I would throw Josh into that mix for the big men who will improve. He's got a terrific motor and a lengthy frame. I could definitely see him improving enough to be a solid rotation player, coming off the bench for energy and defense.

I agree that josh will play a larger role this year, but we have 12 guys who can be in the rotation, and I think other than austin, there is just about No one who is guaranteed to be in the rotation by the end of the year. We are so deep (in terms of lots of talent, not necessarily NPOY guys...but lots of talent) at every position, that every guy will be fighting for minutes, and I'd be bluffing if I said I had a clue what the rotation would ultimately look like at the end of the year.

Jackson
04-19-2011, 08:58 PM
Given recent events... 5 - Miles, 4 - Mason, 3 - Murphy, 2 - Rivers, 1 - Cook/Curry


next year's starting 5.

sagegrouse
04-20-2011, 09:21 AM
FWIW the discussion about starting lineups this year was constrained by having only nine scholarship players -- not counting our man KI. Really eight, in that Josh was not in position to compete for a starting position.

Nine players yield 126 possible combinations of five starters. (Geek translation = 9!/5!4!). Limiting the discussion to eight potential starters restricts the number to 56, I think.

Next year, with 12 players, there are 792 possibilities.

And, if we add yet another player (DeAndre, are you listening?), the number increases to 1,287.

So, I think the question, "What are we gonna talk about on DBR next season?" has been answered. Do you think Julio & Co. need to expand capacity to handle the additional message flow?

sagegrouse

sagegrouse
04-20-2011, 10:12 AM
Here are the minutes per (Duke) game in 2011 for each of the returning players:



MP1 26
MP2 17
Ryan 20
Seth 25
Andre 21
Tyler 9
Josh 5
Total 123


I predict that no one's minutes are gonna decrease (except for injury). Duke's high offensive and defensive efficiency ratings derive from the team concept. If these guys were good enough to earn these minutes for a top five team in 2011, then -- with more experience -- they will earn these minutes for a top ten team in 2012.

In fact, MP2 and Ryan are likely to see more minutes net year, say a total of ten, as they will be more important to the offense.

That leaves 63 to cover both newcomers and "plus-ups" for the other returnees. I think Austin will earn 30 minutes per game and that Quin and Tyler will combine for 30 (+21). That leaves only 12 minutes for the other newcomers (Gbinijie, MP3, Murphy). did I leave anyone out?

Getting crowded, isn't it? And then there is DeAndre....

I still think no one on the 2011 will be supplanted in terms of playing time, but the numbers are tight.

sagegrouse

CDu
04-20-2011, 10:54 AM
Here are the minutes per (Duke) game in 2011 for each of the returning players:



MP1 26
MP2 17
Ryan 20
Seth 25
Andre 21
Tyler 9
Josh 5
Total 123


I predict that no one's minutes are gonna decrease (except for injury). Duke's high offensive and defensive efficiency ratings derive from the team concept. If these guys were good enough to earn these minutes for a top five team in 2011, then -- with more experience -- they will earn these minutes for a top ten team in 2012.

In fact, MP2 and Ryan are likely to see more minutes net year, say a total of ten, as they will be more important to the offense.

That leaves 63 to cover both newcomers and "plus-ups" for the other returnees. I think Austin will earn 30 minutes per game and that Quin and Tyler will combine for 30 (+21). That leaves only 12 minutes for the other newcomers (Gbinijie, MP3, Murphy). did I leave anyone out?

Getting crowded, isn't it? And then there is DeAndre....

I still think no one on the 2011 will be supplanted in terms of playing time, but the numbers are tight.

sagegrouse

I think you got the minutes for Miles (MP1) and Mason (MP2) reversed. I also wouldn't necessarily assume that Rivers will get 30mpg on a deep team (though I'm hopeful he proves good enough for those minutes) or that Cook and Thornton will combine for 30mpg (this one has a lot of room for variation).

But your minutes example does illustrate the challenges of having so many talented players. I don't want to speculate on which players will feel the minutes crunch, but clearly somebody will as Coach K hasn't really gone with a rotation bigger than 8-9. So if we have 11 or 12 players, it's likely that 2-4 guys get squeezed throughout the year. Even in the 1998 season, when we had all 11 guys available Coach K trimmed it to 8-9 and benched some combination of Price, Chappell, and Domzalski for all but 2-3 minutes.

So realistically, I'd expect the minutes to be crunched. The question will be how those minutes get crunched. If a clear division emerges (as happened in 1997-1998, when Brand, McLeod, Battier, Carrawell, Langdon, Wojo, and Avery separated from Burgess, Price, Chappell, and Domzalski), then we'll see a few players with very few minutes. If we don't see that separation (which would potentially be concerning from a team development standpoint), then we could see the lineup/rotation changing frequently, resulting in several players averaging regular minutes, but their game-to-game minutes fluctuating wildly (like what happened with Dawkins, Miles, and to some degree Kelly this year).

Since there is so much uncertainty (and since I haven't seen nearly half of them), I won't speculate as to which guys I think will feel the minutes crunch.

sagegrouse
04-20-2011, 10:57 AM
I think you got the minutes for Miles (MP1) and Mason (MP2) reversed. .

Yep. I was picturing the players when I entered the data but got the names reversed.

sagegrouse

sagegrouse
04-20-2011, 11:10 AM
Corrected table:



MP2 26
MP1 17
Ryan 20
Seth 25
Andre 21
Tyler 9
Josh 5
Total 123


I understand CDu's doubts about Austin's 30 minutes and Tyler/Cook combining for 30 minutes. Assumptions about minutes for freshmen at Duke can be teacherous. I do think, however, that Austin may prove good enough to be the starting SG from day one (with some time at the wing). And I think it will be tempting to have one of the true PGs on the court most of the time. So that's what I am starting with.

sagegrouse

MarkD83
04-20-2011, 11:17 AM
FWIW the discussion about starting lineups this year was constrained by having only nine scholarship players -- not counting our man KI. Really eight, in that Josh was not in position to compete for a starting position.

Nine players yield 126 possible combinations of five starters. (Geek translation = 9!/5!4!). Limiting the discussion to eight potential starters restricts the number to 56, I think.

Next year, with 12 players, there are 792 possibilities.

And, if we add yet another player (DeAndre, are you listening?), the number increases to 1,287.

So, I think the question, "What are we gonna talk about on DBR next season?" has been answered. Do you think Julio & Co. need to expand capacity to handle the additional message flow?

sagegrouse

I think we should immeadiately set up 12 (perhaps 13) separate threads entitled

"Why doesn't xxx player get more minutes vigil" so that we can consildate all of the various threads that are going to be started.

MarkD83
04-20-2011, 11:26 AM
To be a bit more thoughtfull about this...I always have trouble with looking at "average" minutes per game when assessing players and teams.

Duke next year will have lots of options and you have to look at the what ifs...

If someone is not playing well in a given game, Coach K can sub in with someone else at the same position.

If someone is shooting well in a given game that player gets mroe time.

If Duke plays a team with a tall and physical front court, Coach K could play three bigs for extended minutes.

If Duke plays a guard heavy team, Coach K could play four guards and one big.

Coach K has many options on the 2011-12 team. In fact perhaps even more than 2010-11. We won't have Kyle and Nolan to rely on but (as fans) we won't have to worry about any one player being injuried or having a bad game.

CDu
04-20-2011, 11:48 AM
To be a bit more thoughtfull about this...I always have trouble with looking at "average" minutes per game when assessing players and teams.

Agreed. This relates on the idea that I mentioned that the individual-game minutes may vary wildly.


Duke next year will have lots of options and you have to look at the what ifs...

If someone is not playing well in a given game, Coach K can sub in with someone else at the same position.

If someone is shooting well in a given game that player gets mroe time.

If Duke plays a team with a tall and physical front court, Coach K could play three bigs for extended minutes.

If Duke plays a guard heavy team, Coach K could play four guards and one big.

Coach K has many options on the 2011-12 team. In fact perhaps even more than 2010-11. We won't have Kyle and Nolan to rely on but (as fans) we won't have to worry about any one player being injuried or having a bad game.

This is certainly a possibility, but that depends on the depth proving to Coach K that they're ready to play. We may still be fairly reliant on a few players, and still have to worry about any one player being hurt or having a bad game. HOPEFULLY, we'll be fortunate and many guys step up. If that case arises, I agree completely with your post.

Indoor66
04-20-2011, 12:41 PM
FWIW the discussion about starting lineups this year was constrained by having only nine scholarship players -- not counting our man KI. Really eight, in that Josh was not in position to compete for a starting position.

Nine players yield 126 possible combinations of five starters. (Geek translation = 9!/5!4!). Limiting the discussion to eight potential starters restricts the number to 56, I think.

Next year, with 12 players, there are 792 possibilities.

And, if we add yet another player (DeAndre, are you listening?), the number increases to 1,287.

So, I think the question, "What are we gonna talk about on DBR next season?" has been answered. Do you think Julio & Co. need to expand capacity to handle the additional message flow?

sagegrouse

Goooollllllllyyyyyyyyy - we will have to play a lot of games to satify the posters on this board! LOL

ACCBBallFan
04-20-2011, 02:51 PM
Here are the minutes per (Duke) game in 2011 for each of the returning players:



MP1 26
MP2 17
Ryan 20
Seth 25
Andre 21
Tyler 9
Josh 5
Total 123


I predict that no one's minutes are gonna decrease (except for injury). Duke's high offensive and defensive efficiency ratings derive from the team concept. If these guys were good enough to earn these minutes for a top five team in 2011, then -- with more experience -- they will earn these minutes for a top ten team in 2012.

In fact, MP2 and Ryan are likely to see more minutes net year, say a total of ten, as they will be more important to the offense.

That leaves 63 to cover both newcomers and "plus-ups" for the other returnees. I think Austin will earn 30 minutes per game and that Quin and Tyler will combine for 30 (+21). That leaves only 12 minutes for the other newcomers (Gbinijie, MP3, Murphy). did I leave anyone out?

Getting crowded, isn't it? And then there is DeAndre....

I still think no one on the 2011 will be supplanted in terms of playing time, but the numbers are tight.

sagegrouseGood way to look at it.

I agree with your method of taking total minutes played divided by 37 games Duke played, rather than only by the games each player appeard in, which inflates MPG.

However, you seem to have Mason and Miles reversed. Does not matter since they still sum to 43 and consume virtually all the center minutes plus some PF minutes, along with Kelly's 20 MPG and Josh whose time should round to 4 MPG. So that's 67 MPG among those 4 implying Kyle played about 13 of his 35 MPG at PF and 22 at SF.

Another way to look at it though is who got the other minutes instead of these guys: Kyle (13 @ PF/ 22 @ SF), Nolan (34) and for 11 games Kyrie (average of 8 MPG over 37 games).

Though they are all extremely difficult to replace on both ends of the floor, in their place is Austin Rivers, Quinn Cook, Mike Gbinije, Alex Murphy, Marshall Plumlee and possibly some would say likely DeAndre Daniels.

Nolan and Kyrie are guards and thier time (42 MPG ) would be absorbed either by Austin or Quinn or more time for Seth, Dre and Tyler. Let's say 25 MPG for Austin, 10 or more for Quinn and the other 7 represent more time for Seth/Dre/Quinn.

One flaw in your logic is assuming Tyler equals or exceeds last years 9 MPG. Much of that was due to Kyrie's injury, and 10 scholarship players versus next year's 12 or 13, but that kind of washes in analysis above in lieu of more time for Tyler due to extra year of experience.

There were a few games (3) where Dre played less than 10 MPG but for the most part he played double digit minutes. Ditto for Seth who only had 2 games in single digits, the last game being due to hip pointer injury.

I tend to agree with you though that the Plumlees and Kelly would log as many or more minutes as last year, which is 63 of the available 80 MPG at PF/C, plus Josh's 4 make it 67. I also expect Josh to be improved enough in skill and Duke experience to earn more of the remaining 13 MPG leaving near zero for Marshall who may red-shirt or for the undersized Murphy and Daniles @ PF (not case at SF).

Other than Miles who does not match up well with certain bigs (6 games with single digit minutes) , Mason and Ryan played as many minutes as they were capable of, since we are talking averages, and not same minutes every single game.

It would be nice to have Marshall play on Senior night to start the game with both of his brothers who will likely be leaving after this season, Miles for sure and Mason possibly or even probably.

So who among Mike G, ALex, and possibly DeAndre gets the 13 or less minutes from Kyle as PF and the 22 MPG at SF? Even if all 3 play and split it evenely thats 12 MPG each which is not awful, as long as their expectations are not unrealistic.

If Daniels does not join or if Alex redshirts, two guys would be sharing most of the 35 MPG Kyle played.

So from a numbers perspective, I think the concern over not enough minutes to go around is unfounded. A better discussion might be that it is unrealitic to play more than 10 of the 13 guys double digit minutes.

A possible solution would be to do full 5 Blue for 5 White substituting since no one other than possibly Rivers seems to be so much better than his counterpart as was the case with Kyle and Nolan last year and JJ and Shelden in years past. This assumes Josh improves or Alex bridges the gap between last year and the Plumlees and Kelly for 4th big (as Kelly did last year or just rotate the three like last year).

The 5 guys who played 17 MPG or more last year plus Austin would make 6, and the other 4 in first 10 would come from Quinn, Tyler, Mike G, Alex, Josh and DeAndre, with Marshall Plumlee being the least likely.

I am not as ready to write off Josh Hairston or Mike Gbinije as some seem to be in favor of Alex and DeAndre.

Rather than it being all or nothing for which true PG Quinn or Tyler garners the 15 MPG duties with Seth @25, perhaps they each play 8-10 MPG or Seth plays more at SG. I realize most of Seth's time last year was at SG, not PG, as was the expectation pre-season for Nolan.

For Blue and White teams:

Seth and Quinn/Tyler

Austin and Dre

2 of Mike G/ Alex / DeAndre

Josh/Alex and Kelly

Mason and Miles

with Tyler more likely to sit than Quinn, with Alex or Josh outplaying the other for 4th big, and with one of Mike G/ Alex or DeAndre being the third of the 11th-13th in the rotation (i.e., not in the rotation) or redshirting or possibly not at Duke in case of DeAndre.

Since coach K does not go by position, if Alex were to redshirt and DeAndre were to go elsewhere, Austin or Dre could be considered the SF along with Mike G, Seth the SG along with other of Austin/Dre and both true PGs Quinn and Tyler could alternate.

ACCBBallFan
04-20-2011, 02:59 PM
Agreed. This relates on the idea that I mentioned that the individual-game minutes may vary wildly.



This is certainly a possibility, but that depends on the depth proving to Coach K that they're ready to play. We may still be fairly reliant on a few players, and still have to worry about any one player being hurt or having a bad game. HOPEFULLY, we'll be fortunate and many guys step up. If that case arises, I agree completely with your post.

I tend to agree with MarkD83 that "(as fans) we won't have to worry about any one player being injuried or having a bad game."

(as much as was the case in past with Kyle, Nolan, Jon, JJ, Shelden, Mcroberts, etc).

The more skilled players Austin, perhaps DeAndre are freshmen and this is offset by the experience of guys like Seth/Dre who are very skilled in their own right.

Duke is fine without Mason as long as Miles and Ryan stay out of foul trouble if Josh/Alex can give them an occasional breather. Having the invisible insurance option of Kyle at PF may be missed the most. OTOH, it may open up some opportunities for Josh/Alex as was the case for Ryan when Zoubs/Lance departed.

tgotdamp
04-20-2011, 05:00 PM
As of now, the lineup looks like it will be:

Cook-PG
Rivers-SG
Curry-SF
Plumlees-PF/C

This lineup gives you multiple 3-pt threats with rebounding and an inside presence. Most missed it but Miles looked pretty good in the tourney hitting those 15ft. jumpers. Mason just needs to get a patented big man move down low. Many are eluding to the fact that Dawkins will crack the starting lineup. I highly doubt so. The reason being is Coach K doesn't start 3 natural SGs when he has a talented true PG at his disposal. Jon Scheyer played the point because of Elliot Williams departure and Smith did so with the injury of Kyrie. As we saw last year, 2 or 3 SGs is good for our perimeter but it tremendously takes away from the inside game as we don't have a true floor general. Cook is better than Thornton by light years so I believe he will get the nod unless Thornton improves tremendously in the offseason. I can see the 2nd team being:

-Thornton: PG
-Dawkins: SG
-Gbinije: SF
-Murphy: PF
-Kelly:C

Hairston needs a lot of improvement during the offseason and I haven't seen enough of Marshall but from every fan and critic, he needs a year of development.

hedevil
04-20-2011, 06:42 PM
For those who believe that Cook will be the starting point guard from the get go, I beg to differ. I DO believe that Cook has a chance to earn the starting spot later in the season, however, he will have to prove that he deserves those keys, unlike Kyrie Irving who was handed the keys from the get go. Cook will also have to prove that he is the best option at the point over more experienced players like Curry and Thornton. I love the skills that Cook potentially brings to the table such as court vision, good handle, looking to pass first, and decent speed. That being said, Curry and Thornton have proven that they can defend at this level. If Cook can step up his game defensively at the collegiate level early on (when given the opportunity) then I like his chances to start late in the season. He still has alot of questions to be answered before he will be trusted with the keys to this Ferrari.

DukieinSoCal
04-20-2011, 07:07 PM
For those who believe that Cook will be the starting point guard from the get go, I beg to differ. I DO believe that Cook has a chance to earn the starting spot later in the season, however, he will have to prove that he deserves those keys, unlike Kyrie Irving who was handed the keys from the get go. Cook will also have to prove that he is the best option at the point over more experienced players like Curry and Thornton. I love the skills that Cook potentially brings to the table such as court vision, good handle, looking to pass first, and decent speed. That being said, Curry and Thornton have proven that they can defend at this level. If Cook can step up his game defensively at the collegiate level early on (when given the opportunity) then I like his chances to start late in the season. He still has alot of questions to be answered before he will be trusted with the keys to this Ferrari.

While Quinn may not start off in the starting lineup, I think there's a good chance he starts pretty quickly. While Tyler is a bulldog on defense, he is too limited offensively. And Seth may be good at picking pockets but his slow foot speed makes him a liability against quicker guards. He's also a perfect spot-up shooter in our offense.

I actually think that Quinn is a bit under-rated right now because he is just recovering the explosion he lost when he injured his knee last year. Like you said, his vision and handle are exceptional. Watching him play these past few weeks, I don't think there was a better PG in the country. He's much more in control and consistent as a shooter than the guys rated above him, ie. Teague, Kabongo. As long as he can pick up coach K's system quickly, I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting within the first couple of months. We already know K isn't afraid to start freshmen if they're up to the task. If Quinn is up to the job, we could be really, really good with all the weapons he'll have at his disposal. I'm hoping we run and press a bit more this year to take advantage of all the shooters and depth.

NSDukeFan
04-20-2011, 08:51 PM
While Quinn may not start off in the starting lineup, I think there's a good chance he starts pretty quickly. While Tyler is a bulldog on defense, he is too limited offensively. And Seth may be good at picking pockets but his slow foot speed makes him a liability against quicker guards. He's also a perfect spot-up shooter in our offense.

I actually think that Quinn is a bit under-rated right now because he is just recovering the explosion he lost when he injured his knee last year. Like you said, his vision and handle are exceptional. Watching him play these past few weeks, I don't think there was a better PG in the country. He's much more in control and consistent as a shooter than the guys rated above him, ie. Teague, Kabongo. As long as he can pick up coach K's system quickly, I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting within the first couple of months. We already know K isn't afraid to start freshmen if they're up to the task. If Quinn is up to the job, we could be really, really good with all the weapons he'll have at his disposal. I'm hoping we run and press a bit more this year to take advantage of all the shooters and depth.

I am curious as to which guards you felt that Seth was a liability defensively against due to his "slow foot speed?" Do you know for sure that Cook would do better than Curry against those college (not high school) guards at this point?

sagegrouse
04-20-2011, 11:02 PM
As of now, the lineup looks like it will be:

Cook-PG
Rivers-SG
Curry-SF
Plumlees-PF/C

This lineup gives you multiple 3-pt threats with rebounding and an inside presence. Most missed it but Miles looked pretty good in the tourney hitting those 15ft. jumpers. Mason just needs to get a patented big man move down low. Many are eluding to the fact that Dawkins will crack the starting lineup. I highly doubt so. The reason being is Coach K doesn't start 3 natural SGs when he has a talented true PG at his disposal. Jon Scheyer played the point because of Elliot Williams departure and Smith did so with the injury of Kyrie. As we saw last year, 2 or 3 SGs is good for our perimeter but it tremendously takes away from the inside game as we don't have a true floor general. Cook is better than Thornton by light years so I believe he will get the nod unless Thornton improves tremendously in the offseason. I can see the 2nd team being:

-Thornton: PG
-Dawkins: SG
-Gbinije: SF
-Murphy: PF
-Kelly:C

Hairston needs a lot of improvement during the offseason and I haven't seen enough of Marshall but from every fan and critic, he needs a year of development.

This is a little odd. Rivers said last summer he was 6-5 barefoot. Dre is at least 6-4. If true, Seth will never be the wing on a Duke team during his years here.

Given that Duke will need to score inside this year (absent Kyle and Nolan), don't you think that Mason and Ryan will be the starters (or at least get the most minutes)? I believe both will be All-ACC before leaving.

As to who starts at guard, I am reserving judgment. I agree it will be tempting to use true PGs like Tyler and Quin much of the time, but Austin and Seth can clearly make something happen on offense. I think a transcendent talent like Austin will start; I think a formidable future player like Quin will need to work his way into the lineup, and the returning guards have the advantage of experience, knowing the Duke system, and being pretty good at Duke defense.

sagegrouse

Mike Corey
04-20-2011, 11:21 PM
With our current slate of returning players and commits, here's the lineup I'd hope to see come March 2012:

PG - Cook
SG - Rivers
SF - Curry
PF - Kelly
C - Plumlee the Neither*

It's hard for me to leave Dawkins out of this top 5. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Curry became interchangeable as starters. I only put Curry here because I think his knack for scoring gives him a higher ceiling. Curry's dramatic improvement over the course of this past season showed us what Curry can do, of course, but I'd be thrilled to see both of them turn into double-digit scorers on a regular basis.

When Curry committed to Duke, K told him that he envisioned a Scheyer-like role for Curry. That's big praise, but I think it's justified.

Thornton will get his PT. I love Thornton in a Duke uniform because he reminds me of my all-time favorite non-all-time-best Dukie, Sean Dockery. Dockery worked as hard as anyone, and K always said that Dockery was a tremendous teammate who waited his turn to take on a starting role. Thornton is out of that same mold, and he's a great competitor. But Cook brings a skillset to the floor that will render him too good to keep off the court for long.

How far Hairston progresses is up to him. He has the tools, just has to put them together. He can be a great weapon in K's system.

The Plumlees--the Elder, the Neither* and the Younger--absolutely need to develop four go-to post moves that become innate. No more of this hobnobbing in the paint when the ball comes to them. Become able of making something happen individually, and Duke becomes much better. Go to school on Carlos Boozer and what makes him so damn effective; go to school on Tyler Zeller and what makes him so damn effective; etc., etc. Make it happen.

I'm very curious to see what K devises for this team offensively. What will their identity be? Can hardly wait to find out. The ball revolve around Austin Rivers, and rightfully so; but the best Duke teams have historically had at least 5 guys hovering around double-figure scoring per game. Who else will step up?

Kedsy
04-20-2011, 11:32 PM
With our current slate of returning players and commits, here's the lineup I'd hope to see come March 2012:

PG - Cook
SG - Rivers
SF - Curry
PF - Kelly
C - Plumlee the Neither*



You don't think there's a defensive issue with that lineup giving up significant size, often at 3 positions (and almost always at 2 positions)?

jdk
04-20-2011, 11:35 PM
FWIW the discussion about starting lineups this year was constrained by having only nine scholarship players -- not counting our man KI. Really eight, in that Josh was not in position to compete for a starting position.

Nine players yield 126 possible combinations of five starters. (Geek translation = 9!/5!4!). Limiting the discussion to eight potential starters restricts the number to 56, I think.

Next year, with 12 players, there are 792 possibilities.

And, if we add yet another player (DeAndre, are you listening?), the number increases to 1,287.

So, I think the question, "What are we gonna talk about on DBR next season?" has been answered. Do you think Julio & Co. need to expand capacity to handle the additional message flow?

sagegrouse


Guarantee we won't see the Marshall-Mason-Miles-Hairston-Kelly lineup out there.

darjum
04-21-2011, 12:21 AM
Duke is fine without Mason as long as Miles and Ryan stay out of foul trouble if Josh/Alex can give them an occasional breather.

If MP2 doesn't come back there is no way Duke can effectively play the same defensive game. You need to have a quality rim protector and high volume rebounder in order to be an effective pressing team. I like R.Kelly a lot as a player, but if he is your defensive anchor you're in trouble. MP1 has proven nothing but inconsistent during his three years and if you're relying on a big jump from him in order to have a successful season then again, you're in trouble. Josh can be efficient offensively given time but again he's not a pivot on defense. A.Murphy is intriguing in the same way Kyle was for four years, but 6-8 does not a rim protector make.

Whilst there has been a lot written regarding Kyrie's decision to join the 2011 draft and there is no doubt Duke will miss Kyrie immensely in terms of the special talent he brings; Duke does however bring in another freshman with All-ACC potential in Rivers. However, the incoming freshman class does not bring in an All-ACC talent at the power positions, therefore imo MP2 is irreplaceable. Expecting any of the other power players within Duke's rotation to carry the same load expected of MP2 is asking too much.

pless55
04-21-2011, 12:28 AM
I think that Dawkins will take a step up next year. Pretty jump shot and some nice hops. I think that he could average thirteen or fourteen points a game easily. Just be a gym rat this summer Andre! Remember the kid graduated from high school two years ago at the age of 19. Remember Nolan had a breakout junior year. He averaged like eight points a game his sophmore year like Andre. Andre could play the three. I think that Rivers will be like Irving except he will be looking to create his shot.

Mike Corey
04-21-2011, 12:32 AM
You don't think there's a defensive issue with that lineup giving up significant size, often at 3 positions (and almost always at 2 positions)?

I think the problem will take care of itself.

darjum
04-21-2011, 12:33 AM
With our current slate of returning players and commits, here's the lineup I'd hope to see come March 2012:

PG - Cook
SG - Rivers
SF - Curry
PF - Kelly
C - Plumlee the Neither*

It's hard for me to leave Dawkins out of this top 5. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Curry became interchangeable as starters. I only put Curry here because I think his knack for scoring gives him a higher ceiling. Curry's dramatic improvement over the course of this past season showed us what Curry can do, of course, but I'd be thrilled to see both of them turn into double-digit scorers on a regular basis.

When Curry committed to Duke, K told him that he envisioned a Scheyer-like role for Curry. That's big praise, but I think it's justified.

Thornton will get his PT. I love Thornton in a Duke uniform because he reminds me of my all-time favorite non-all-time-best Dukie, Sean Dockery. Dockery worked as hard as anyone, and K always said that Dockery was a tremendous teammate who waited his turn to take on a starting role. Thornton is out of that same mold, and he's a great competitor. But Cook brings a skillset to the floor that will render him too good to keep off the court for long.

My only question with your line-up is Cook. I agree that by March he may indeed be the starter. But if we think that Curry and Rivers will do a lot of the ball-handling do we need Cook in the starting line-up? If Curry and Rivers cannot initiate a team offense then yes, Cook must play. However if the offense functions without a designated play maker (which is what Cook can be), then defensively it may be wiser to go with alternatives (Thornton for high quality guards, possibly MG, AM or AD for quality wings).

I too want to see Andre start, but agree he doesn't start over Curry. If K doesn't believe Duke can start a Rivers, Curry and Dawkins lineup due to defensive limitations then unfortunately Dawkins will probably come off the bench, which I'm sure he wasn't expecting by his Jr season.

To have so much uncertainty over the starting lineup is actually quite a fun 'problem' to have as a fan of Duke basketball; too much talent! Land Tony Parker for the following year and Duke will be a scary indeed.

ACCBBallFan
04-21-2011, 01:44 AM
If MP2 doesn't come back there is no way Duke can effectively play the same defensive game. You need to have a quality rim protector and high volume rebounder in order to be an effective pressing team. I like R.Kelly a lot as a player, but if he is your defensive anchor you're in trouble. MP1 has proven nothing but inconsistent during his three years and if you're relying on a big jump from him in order to have a successful season then again, you're in trouble. Josh can be efficient offensively given time but again he's not a pivot on defense. A.Murphy is intriguing in the same way Kyle was for four years, but 6-8 does not a rim protector make.

Whilst there has been a lot written regarding Kyrie's decision to join the 2011 draft and there is no doubt Duke will miss Kyrie immensely in terms of the special talent he brings; Duke does however bring in another freshman with All-ACC potential in Rivers. However, the incoming freshman class does not bring in an All-ACC talent at the power positions, therefore imo MP2 is irreplaceable. Expecting any of the other power players within Duke's rotation to carry the same load expected of MP2 is asking too much.

My point was not that Duke would be as well off without Mason but that he is not as irreplaceable as Kyle, Nolan, Jon, JJ, Shelden and McRoberts in past seasons. No one on this year's roster is.

There is a lot of talent much of it interchangeable.

My preferred lineup pending what happens with DeAndre Daniels is 4 shooters and a center also 4 upperclassmen and a #1 frosh:

Curry (red shirt Jr.) backed up by Cook/Tyler

Dawkins (Jr.) backed up by Curry/Rivers

Rivers backed up by Gbinje/Murphy

Kelly (Jr.) backed up by Hairston/Murphy or a Plumlee

Mason (Jr.) backed up by Miles (Sr.)/Marshall Plumlee

Does not matter which 2 of the Plumlees and Kelly start as the third guy plays as many minutes, but give Austin the ball to drive to hoop or hit any of Seth/Dre/Ryan for a 3 or alley oop to a Plumlee and draw fouls.

The other frosh are eased into the rotation as they are ready with the China/Dubai trip helping to accelerate that process.

When Austin is not in the game, sub out Dre too to have another frosh either Gbinije or Murphy play the SF and also bring in Cook as a true PG with Seth the better ball handler than Dre at SG to steady the two frosh.

Austin and Dre can sub back in for Seth and one of the frosh either the SF Mike G/Alex or the PG Quinn.

Though Tyler played more than Josh last year due to Kyrie injury, next year Josh may play more than Tyler if he can beat Alex for the 4th big spot vacated by Kyle. This would depend on Hairston being as improved / Bulked up next year as Kelly was this year.

With no Lance, no Kyle, no Nolan and no Kyrie, Tyler may be the best equipped to gaurd Austin with Quinn and Gbinije/Murphy guarding Seth and Dre in practice. He is not the typical SF, so Gbinje/Murphy would benefit more from practicing against one another, plus Josh, Ryan and the Plumlees.

darjum
04-21-2011, 01:58 AM
My point was not that Duke would be as well off without Mason but that he is not as irreplaceable as Kyle, Nolan, Jon, JJ, Shelden and McRoberts in past seasons. No one on this year's roster is.

There is a lot of talent much of it interchangeable.

My preferred lineup pending what happens with DeAndre Daniels is 4 shooters and a center also 4 upperclassmen and a #1 frosh:

Curry (red shirt Jr.) backed up by Cook/Tyler

Dawkins (Jr.) backed up by Curry/Rivers

Rivers backed up by Gbinje/Murphy

Kelly (Jr.) backed up by Hairston/Murphy or a Plumlee

Mason (Jr.) backed up by Miles (Sr.)/Marshall Plumlee

Does not matter which 2 of the Plumlees and Kelly start as the third guy plays as many minutes, but give Austin the ball to drive to hoop or hit any of Seth/Dre/Ryan for a 3 or alley oop to a Plumlee and draw fouls.

The other frosh are eased into the rotation as they are ready with the China/Dubai trip helping to accelerate that process.

When Austin is not in the game, sub out Dre too to have another frosh either Gbinije or Murphy play the SF and also bring in Cook as a true PG with Seth the better ball handler than Dre at SG to steady the two frosh.

Austin and Dre can sub back in for Seth and one of the frosh either the SF Mike G/Alex or the PG Quinn.

Though Tyler played more than Josh last year due to Kyrie injury, next year Josh may play more than Tyler if he can beat Alex for the 4th big spot vacated by Kyle. This would depend on Hairston being as improved / Bulked up next year as Kelly was this year.

With no Lance, no Kyle, no Nolan and no Kyrie, Tyler may be the best equipped to gaurd Austin with Quinn and Gbinije/Murphy guarding Seth and Dre in practice. He is not the typical SF, so Gbinje/Murphy would benefit more from practicing against one another, plus Josh, Ryan and the Plumlees.

I agree with your POV regarding roster flexibility. The expected improvement of returnees and freshmen surging towards the end of the year will make practices super competitive and make minutes hard to come by.

But I do have to stand by my guns on the MP2 case. I believe this years version of MP2 will become irreplaceable to Duke's success and Duke will need a big player to play big on the defensive end. Offensively is another matter, but defensively there is no big that I trust more than MP2 to get the job done.

I agree with your preferred starting line up also, which I listed the same starting 5 earlier this thread. I still have worries about Dawkin's, but I truly appreciate the journey he has had since enrolling at Duke early.

nocilla
04-21-2011, 08:58 AM
With our current slate of returning players and commits, here's the lineup I'd hope to see come March 2012:

PG - Cook
SG - Rivers
SF - Curry
PF - Kelly
C - Plumlee the Neither*


My only issue with this is that our SF would be 6-2. It's just a formality, but with those 5 on the court I would imagine Rivers would be the SF, he would at least have to be guarding the opponents SF. I'm with some of the others that think Dawkins will start in place of Cook to start out with.

Devilsfan
04-21-2011, 09:10 AM
The Plumlees seem to be "like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get". More often than not, one will be really good.

darjum
04-21-2011, 10:30 AM
The Plumlees seem to be "like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get". More often than not, one will be really good.

Didn't you hear, a new NCAA rule was passed that states that if a team has three brothers on the roster at the same time, all three can check into the game and only be considered as one player, hence Duke can have 7 players on the court at one time :D Next year Harrison Barnes will face a wall of Plumlee's eager to send his shot back to half court! Ha, ha, Duke rules!

Saratoga2
04-21-2011, 11:13 AM
I agree with your POV regarding roster flexibility. The expected improvement of returnees and freshmen surging towards the end of the year will make practices super competitive and make minutes hard to come by.

But I do have to stand by my guns on the MP2 case. I believe this years version of MP2 will become irreplaceable to Duke's success and Duke will need a big player to play big on the defensive end. Offensively is another matter, but defensively there is no big that I trust more than MP2 to get the job done.

I agree with your preferred starting line up also, which I listed the same starting 5 earlier this thread. I still have worries about Dawkin's, but I truly appreciate the journey he has had since enrolling at Duke early.

My feeling is the upperclassmen should get first shot at a position, provided they are a good fit for that position. Clearly, the Plumlees and Kelly have experience at the 4 and 5 and will not only get first look but will probably be the main starters in that position.

I would think the 3 is wide open. Andre probably will get first look there at 6'4". he is big enough and he has experience. Andre will probably have improved over the off season as will all of our previous players, so tthat is in their favor as well. I can see Michael and Alex competing for the 3 and possibly Alex can compete for the 4.

Rge shooting guard has Seth and Andre returning as well but also has a very highly ranked player coming in. We saw how Kyrie came in and got to start early on. The same may be true for Austin due to the talent gap.

That leaves the point. Seth has the experience to start, but is by no means a shoo in there. Tyler has some experience and may well have improved his offense during the off season. Then Quinn is there with a lot of quickness and is more of a natural point.

Still a lot to be determined before it can be clarified. The good news is that there are legitimate choices at each position. DeAndre's and Mason's status is also yet to be determined. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

darjum
04-21-2011, 11:23 AM
I would think the 3 is wide open. Andre probably will get first look there at 6'4". he is big enough and he has experience. Andre will probably have improved over the off season as will all of our previous players, so tthat is in their favor as well. I can see Michael and Alex competing for the 3 and possibly Alex can compete for the 4.

Yes, the fun is going to be the '3' position. So much competition with really talented, yet unproven (Andre still isn't a proven commodity either), athletes. A great problem for the coaching staff to have. Alex Murphy in particular really gets me thinking as to the potential of Duke to be a 'big' team. With or without DD, what a great group, should be a blast to watch them grow and compete over the next few years.

Kedsy
04-21-2011, 11:27 AM
I think the problem will take care of itself.

You mean, with another roster addition? I'm not sure I follow you.

ACCBBallFan
04-21-2011, 11:41 AM
Here are the number of games each returning player has started in their career at Duke:

Miles Plumlee - 41
Mason Plumlee - 33
Ryan Kelly - 27
Seth Curry - 19
Andre Dawkins - 7
Tyler Thornton - 3

Good stuff, Bob.

Miles not only has the most starts. He has been listed as the starting center all three prior years and had varying degrees of success or lack thereof, keeping that spot, first none when he was concurrently studying to be a Pratt engineer before he swivched majors, then some in a 4 man rotation with his brother, Zoubs and Lance, and last year ended up as a starter along side Mason.

As a likely senior captain, he may get the nod over Ryan since as Darjum points out, Miles plays better as a starter and worse as a sub whereas Ryan fares equally well as either.

One thing I have noted though is that Ryan quite often early in the game gets a key block or takes a key charge.

So Duke is very expereinced at the PF/C slot and 2 of those 3 will start, with the other getting equal minutes.

Seth and Austin as a #1/#2 recruit seem like shoo in's to start.

So more evidence that it boils down to who is the fifth starter, Dre for his experience, one of the frosh for their size at SF be it Gbinije, Murphy or possibly Daniels, or Quinn/Tyler to have a true PG. Lots of good options, not mutually exclusive depending on the opponent, who plays best that week in practice, etc..

As is always the case in these annual lineup threads, it is more important how many minutes are logged and who finishes, than who starts.

tgotdamp
04-21-2011, 12:42 PM
there is a certain amount of handwringing about our players, which makes some sense since we've just lost our 3 most accomplished guys. nevertheless, we are returning 5 guys who started multiple games, 2 highly-touted rising sophs, and 4/5 high school all Americans. only a couple teams in the country wouldn't trade players in a heartbeat.

from my angle, I'd say we're underestimating almost everyone on the team. the only exceptions from my limited perspective are Seth and Austin, since I can imagine scenarios in which both aren't starters.

if we start a true point and Rivers, i can see andre or a freshman get the swing spot, with seth a 6/7th man. if we start a true point and seth, i cd see Austin being a super-talented 6th man, like maggette. i've only watched Rivers in a few games, but he may struggle to live up to the press clippings while he learns that he doesn't have to take over games and make so many mistakes in the process. Granted, most of my viewing was at all star games, a dunk contest, and a regularly-televised game, but he does play like a talented teenager. in other words, while Kyrie could have started for many NBA teams 6 months ago, Austin may need more experience playing against similarly-skilled players rather than being the (breathlessly-spoken) "number one recruit and son of doc rivers!!!"

You just went off the deep end saying Rivers could potentially be a talented 6th man like Maggette. This guy is the #1 player in America. Last year, Irving was #2. Im sure you wouldn't have wanted Irving to come off the bench as a talented 6th man. At least, I hope not. You should definitely revisit more of Austin's games. From a high school standpoint, Rivers was a better player than Kyrie. When you look at the tapes, they clearly show such. To Kyrie's credit, he was more of a floor general in high school and getting everyone involved while Austin is a flat-out scorer. The entire nation got on Irving's bandwagon after he suited up with Duke and showed how great of a player he really was. Coach K warned us but Duke was his coming out party. The entire nation is already on the Rivers train as they see what this guy is capable of. If you need proof that he can handle NBA talent, just watch the clip where he crosses John Wall out of his shoes. Thats what you call a Killer-Cross. The only way Austin comes off the bench is if J. Will, Reddick and Smith suit up next year. And I don't think thats happening.

ChillinDuke
04-21-2011, 01:04 PM
Offseason speculation is one of my favorite pastimes on DBR, and of course everyone is entitled to their opinion (and optimism).

But put me down in the camp that thinks (strongly) Seth Curry will be starting. Call it point guard, call it shooting guard, call it combo guard...whatever you want. I call it starting.

I don't see an improved sophomore Thornton or an untested, not-Kyrie Cook starting over a red-shirt (4th-year) junior Seth Curry. I would be surprised if either Thornton or Cook was a regular starter this year.

This is in no way a knock on either Thornton or Cook. I think Thornton developed nicely last year and will be a very big part of this team next year and beyond. And I think Cook looks very promising and has all the makings of an impact player (possibly next year). But in my opinion , offseason optimism is over-hyping these young guns and discounting Curry.

Curry started the majority of games last season down the stretch (including the final 13 consecutive games to my recollection). Granted Irving was sidelined. But he was 5th on the team in MPG even including Irving, and we're losing the top 3 in this category.

We've heard so often that there is no substitute for experience, and we know K values upper-classmen leadership. As much as I love Tyler and Quinn, and as much as I want to see their continued improvement, contribution, and success, Seth starts.

Mike Corey
04-21-2011, 01:29 PM
My only question with your line-up is Cook. I agree that by March he may indeed be the starter. But if we think that Curry and Rivers will do a lot of the ball-handling do we need Cook in the starting line-up? If Curry and Rivers cannot initiate a team offense then yes, Cook must play. However if the offense functions without a designated play maker (which is what Cook can be), then defensively it may be wiser to go with alternatives (Thornton for high quality guards, possibly MG, AM or AD for quality wings).

I'll preface my response with the one that is always true: Whatever Coach K wants, I'll be a fan of. My sense, though, is that despite Jon Scheyer's superlative running of the point guard position, he would prefer his offense to be more uptempo, with more of a distributor/slasher at that position. In my opinion, Quinn Cook can fill that role, and based on his trajectory over the past few months, my guess is that 10 months from now, he'll be ready to take it on.

Duke is lethal when its guards--especially its point guard--can penetrate opposing defenses and score/pass accordingly. Rivers is a sensational dribble driver, and Cook has shown he's very good at it, too. Curry, meanwhile, is as good a spot-up shooter as we've got. That's a helluva three-headed monster to have on the floor, should it come to pass.

Does it have deficiencies? Of course it does. Your critique is an excellent one, certainly. But for now, this is the triumvirate I'd like to see out there from 1-3.

This is all in good fun anyway. Can't wait to see who develops and how.

UrinalCake
04-21-2011, 01:47 PM
I don't see Curry defending the other team's 3. Aside from his lack of height (relatively speaking), his strengths on defense are applying ball pressure and getting steals, thus it makes the most sense to have him defending a ball handler. Trying to match him up against a bigger player who can post up would be asking for trouble.

Mike Corey
04-21-2011, 01:53 PM
I don't see Curry defending the other team's 3. Aside from his lack of height (relatively speaking), his strengths on defense are applying ball pressure and getting steals, thus it makes the most sense to have him defending a ball handler. Trying to match him up against a bigger player who can post up would be asking for trouble.

This is a very good point. But I think it'll be okay.

tgotdamp
04-21-2011, 04:21 PM
This is a little odd. Rivers said last summer he was 6-5 barefoot. Dre is at least 6-4. If true, Seth will never be the wing on a Duke team during his years here.

Given that Duke will need to score inside this year (absent Kyle and Nolan), don't you think that Mason and Ryan will be the starters (or at least get the most minutes)? I believe both will be All-ACC before leaving.

As to who starts at guard, I am reserving judgment. I agree it will be tempting to use true PGs like Tyler and Quin much of the time, but Austin and Seth can clearly make something happen on offense. I think a transcendent talent like Austin will start; I think a formidable future player like Quin will need to work his way into the lineup, and the returning guards have the advantage of experience, knowing the Duke system, and being pretty good at Duke defense.

sagegrouse

Im confused about your statement regarding Seth on the wing. Mind you, this is Duke. There will always be 2 players on the wing and 3 on the perimeter with the possibility of 4. It doesn't matter if you put Rivers at SG and Curry at SF or Curry at SG and Rivers at SF, they both are natural SGs who will play on the wing with an outside-in type game. I favor Miles starting over Ryan because he will give us a better presence on the boards and a added sense of toughness that is not present in our backcourt with the exception of Cook. We will definitely need that as Curry isn't a defensive stopper and we all know Rivers can't guard a bank with a machine gun. While I believe he will get better, I don't see him as a defensive specialist as Reddick wasn't. He has one job and that is to SCORE.

tgotdamp
04-21-2011, 04:47 PM
I'll preface my response with the one that is always true: Whatever Coach K wants, I'll be a fan of. My sense, though, is that despite Jon Scheyer's superlative running of the point guard position, he would prefer his offense to be more uptempo, with more of a distributor/slasher at that position. In my opinion, Quinn Cook can fill that role, and based on his trajectory over the past few months, my guess is that 10 months from now, he'll be ready to take it on.

Duke is lethal when its guards--especially its point guard--can penetrate opposing defenses and score/pass accordingly. Rivers is a sensational dribble driver, and Cook has shown he's very good at it, too. Curry, meanwhile, is as good a spot-up shooter as we've got. That's a helluva three-headed monster to have on the floor, should it come to pass.

Does it have deficiencies? Of course it does. Your critique is an excellent one, certainly. But for now, this is the triumvirate I'd like to see out there from 1-3.

This is all in good fun anyway. Can't wait to see who develops and how.

I concur with the Quinn assessment. Because he is a natural PG who knows when to pass/shoot, the offense will be more fluid. Rivers is a scorer. Lets look at last year. When Kyrie handled the rock, not only could he score but his distribution was key as it made Mason look twice as good. Now Nolan did a hell of a job converting from 2-to-1 but the numbers don't lie. Mason's production went down and our big men had to earn those inside points. With a natural PG, those points come a lot easier and we need that considering the Plumlees don't have a bevy of low-post moves. We really need Laettner to come in and work with our big men. Part of the reason our BIGS aren't reaching their potential is because we have no coach who played their position. Its only so much advice a guard or small forward can give a PF or C. Cmon Coach K, bring in Laettner.

RoyalBlue08
04-21-2011, 04:57 PM
I concur with the Quinn assessment. Because he is a natural PG who knows when to pass/shoot, the offense will be more fluid. Rivers is a scorer. Lets look at last year. When Kyrie handled the rock, not only could he score but his distribution was key as it made Mason look twice as good. Now Nolan did a hell of a job converting from 2-to-1 but the numbers don't lie. Mason's production went down and our big men had to earn those inside points. With a natural PG, those points come a lot easier and we need that considering the Plumlees don't have a bevy of low-post moves. We really need Laettner to come in and work with our big men. Part of the reason our BIGS aren't reaching their potential is because we have no coach who played their position. Its only so much advice a guard or small forward can give a PF or C. Cmon Coach K, bring in Laettner.

Now here is an interesting theory I haven't seen before. Perhaps we could get a few hundred posts to debate this point?

roywhite
04-21-2011, 06:15 PM
Now here is an interesting theory I haven't seen before. Perhaps we could get a few hundred posts to debate this point?

Let's hope the original poster will consult the authoritative reference on such matters, thanks to Throatybeard.

Pinned near the top of the EK Forum (http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/DBRHPR7.1asPDF.pdf)

In this case it's 1(f):
Krzyzewski loves guards too much; we need a real big man coach besides Wojo, of at least ‘6-10” himself. (AKA small ball)

ACCBBallFan
04-21-2011, 08:18 PM
Yes, the fun is going to be the '3' position. So much competition with really talented, yet unproven (Andre still isn't a proven commodity either), athletes. A great problem for the coaching staff to have. Alex Murphy in particular really gets me thinking as to the potential of Duke to be a 'big' team. With or without DD, what a great group, should be a blast to watch them grow and compete over the next few years.

I too see the "3" as the wildcard with Duke using its experience at the other 4 positions and vary its look based on who is on he floor at both ends as the SF/wing defender.

Between Austin and Dre though, I consider Andre more a SG since he is an inch shorter than Austin and also for defensive presence since Austin takes it to the hoop a lot more than Dre. So with Austin nominally labeled the SF, there are two other guys back when he drives, plus he looks for offensive rebounds (and quick steals from defensive rebounder) more than Dre does.

He actually got burned on this a few times by Brad Beal since his Jordan Brand teammates did not get back, but also was successful a few times in getting the steal.

A ton of offense, all upperclassmen, with Curry (red shirt Jr.) at PG, Dawkins (Jr.) at SG, Kelly (Jr.) or Mason Plumlee (Jr.) at PF, and a Plumlee (Sr Miles./Jr. Mason) in the post.

Duke presents if Austin Rivers at the 3 with a guy who is litertally unguardable. Some SF if he cannot guard Austin is talken away from defensive paint to guard Seth or Dre.

Duke can go with a big SF, either Murphy or possibly Daniels.

Duke can go with a glue guy SF with Mike Gbinije, possibly even Josh for defensive purposes, though I see him more as an undersized PF.

On occasion these 3 could also co-exist with Rivers at SG, Daniels at SF and Murphy at PF.

So Duke can be steady, experiences and loaded with offesnive threats including alley oops from Austin at the other 4 positions, have to ability to sub in a true PG, and present a lot of different looks merely by who plays the SF spot when Rivers subs out or moves to SG.

This makes it very difficult for the opposing coach to match up at SF. Few have that kind of quality and quantity to counter so much diveristy at Duke SF.

Newton_14
04-21-2011, 08:30 PM
Im confused about your statement regarding Seth on the wing. Mind you, this is Duke. There will always be 2 players on the wing and 3 on the perimeter with the possibility of 4. It doesn't matter if you put Rivers at SG and Curry at SF or Curry at SG and Rivers at SF, they both are natural SGs who will play on the wing with an outside-in type game. I favor Miles starting over Ryan because he will give us a better presence on the boards and a added sense of toughness that is not present in our backcourt with the exception of Cook. We will definitely need that as Curry isn't a defensive stopper and we all know Rivers can't guard a bank with a machine gun. While I believe he will get better, I don't see him as a defensive specialist as Reddick wasn't. He has one job and that is to SCORE.

We won't know about Austin's defense until we see him in Duke's defensive scheme's and see how he performs. Based on watching him in the one all-star game where defense is played (Nike Hoop Summit) I am not convinced he is as bad a defender as some perceive.

Regarding Redick, he was a very underrated defender at Duke. Much better than folks give him credit for. Ironically, the thing that finally earned JJ playing time in the NBA was his defensive skills.

Newton_14
04-21-2011, 08:33 PM
Let's hope the original poster will consult the authoritative reference on such matters, thanks to Throatybeard.

Pinned near the top of the EK Forum (http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/DBRHPR7.1asPDF.pdf)

In this case it's 1(f):
Krzyzewski loves guards too much; we need a real big man coach besides Wojo, of at least ‘6-10” himself. (AKA small ball)

Yep, that horse is not only severely beaten, he is deader than dead. Someone definitely needs to read the Sticky Thread.:D

darjum
04-21-2011, 08:47 PM
I concur with the Quinn assessment. Because he is a natural PG who knows when to pass/shoot, the offense will be more fluid. Rivers is a scorer. Lets look at last year. When Kyrie handled the rock, not only could he score but his distribution was key as it made Mason look twice as good. Now Nolan did a hell of a job converting from 2-to-1 but the numbers don't lie. Mason's production went down and our big men had to earn those inside points. With a natural PG, those points come a lot easier and we need that considering the Plumlees don't have a bevy of low-post moves. We really need Laettner to come in and work with our big men. Part of the reason our BIGS aren't reaching their potential is because we have no coach who played their position. Its only so much advice a guard or small forward can give a PF or C. Cmon Coach K, bring in Laettner.

I don't doubt how fluid the offense looked with Kyrie at the point, but Quinn Cook as a Freshman isn't going to be nearly as ready or as capable to carry the load. By February may this have changed, absolutely, but no way can you give him the benefit of the doubt yet.

Any time you remove your starting point guard (and potential number 1 overall pick in this years draft) it will influence the play of the bigs and the Plumlee's are no different. As long as that change doesn't influence their ability to block shots and rebound I'm sure the coaching staff will accept a slight dip in offensive production.

I've never heard a former Duke player come out and say that the reason they didn't fulfill their potential was due to one of the coaching staff. Therefore calling out Wojo is quite an assumption? Would it be great to have Laettner back in the Duke fold, absolutely, at the expense of Wojo, no thanks.

loldevilz
04-22-2011, 02:52 AM
PG- Seth Curry 6'2
SG- Austin Rivers 6'4
SF- Alex Murphy 6'8
PF- Ryan Kelly 6'10
C- Mason Plumlee 6'10

Bench: Josh Hairston 6'8, Miles Plumlee 6'10, Andre Dawkins 6'4, (also some Tyler Thornton)

I think the chances of Cook starting are not very good. I have watched Cook play in regular season games and he does not look very ready to orchaetrate a D1 team. He has huge potential, but he dropped a lot in the rankings this year for good reason.

The truth is Seth Curry should be an awesome point guard. He will make Duke play slow, but like the national champion Jon Scheyer, he doesn't turn the ball over. He is very smart with the ball and a great shooter that will punish defenses if they leave him open. I also think that he is a really good passer like his brother. Seriously, the passing ability of the Curry's is very underrated.

I also think people are making a huge mistake by forgetting about Ryan Kelly. If I had to guess Ryan Kelly and Austin Rivers will be the two biggest scorers next year. Kelly is the most skilled big man in the ACC and when he finally figures out college basketball, he will be a force.

My final thought, is that I think that Coach K brought in Alex Murphy specifically to replace Singler. I know that Coach K really loved having Singler on the wing and Murphy has a very similar game even if still unfulfilled. I think that if Coach K loved Dawkins game he would have gotten much bigger run this year and I can't see him making Dawkins Duke's main SF this year even if thats where he starts or gets pt.

darjum
04-22-2011, 06:51 AM
PG- Seth Curry 6'2
SG- Austin Rivers 6'4
SF- Alex Murphy 6'8
PF- Ryan Kelly 6'10
C- Mason Plumlee 6'10

Bench: Josh Hairston 6'8, Miles Plumlee 6'10, Andre Dawkins 6'4, (also some Tyler Thornton)

I think the chances of Cook starting are not very good. I have watched Cook play in regular season games and he does not look very ready to orchaetrate a D1 team. He has huge potential, but he dropped a lot in the rankings this year for good reason.

The truth is Seth Curry should be an awesome point guard. He will make Duke play slow, but like the national champion Jon Scheyer, he doesn't turn the ball over. He is very smart with the ball and a great shooter that will punish defenses if they leave him open. I also think that he is a really good passer like his brother. Seriously, the passing ability of the Curry's is very underrated.

I also think people are making a huge mistake by forgetting about Ryan Kelly. If I had to guess Ryan Kelly and Austin Rivers will be the two biggest scorers next year. Kelly is the most skilled big man in the ACC and when he finally figures out college basketball, he will be a force.

My final thought, is that I think that Coach K brought in Alex Murphy specifically to replace Singler. I know that Coach K really loved having Singler on the wing and Murphy has a very similar game even if still unfulfilled. I think that if Coach K loved Dawkins game he would have gotten much bigger run this year and I can't see him making Dawkins Duke's main SF this year even if thats where he starts or gets pt.

Great post, can't disagree with your perspective on anything really. Like you I believe there is something about Alex Murphy that jumps out as 'he's here for a reason, not just to make up the numbers'. But I find myself somewhat conflicted for two reasons:

1) Andre deserves the start in terms of what he meant to the 2010 season and the experience he has accrued over two years. If you understand his journey, it's hard to not have a soft spot for him.

2) There is something about Michael Gbinije where you believe he has the physical and mental tools to be an outstanding ACC caliber player. Even early in his career.

I agree that I wouldn't start Cook. Rivers and Curry can manage the ball handling and initiating the offense. If they struggle early in the season I would turn to Thornton before Cook. But yes, Cook has wonderful potential and in a few years we will be talking about he and Rasheed Sulaimon in glowing terms.

I am all in on the R.Kelly bandwagon this year. I also agree that he will be the second leading scorer on the team (unless MP2 has a massive offensive transition) behind Rivers. Either way with MP2 and RK I believe Duke is in solid hands this year in the front court.

ACCBBallFan
04-22-2011, 07:41 AM
PG- Seth Curry 6'2
SG- Austin Rivers 6'4
SF- Alex Murphy 6'8
PF- Ryan Kelly 6'10
C- Mason Plumlee 6'10

Bench: Josh Hairston 6'8, Miles Plumlee 6'10, Andre Dawkins 6'4, (also some Tyler Thornton)

I think the chances of Cook starting are not very good. I have watched Cook play in regular season games and he does not look very ready to orchaetrate a D1 team. He has huge potential, but he dropped a lot in the rankings this year for good reason.

The truth is Seth Curry should be an awesome point guard. He will make Duke play slow, but like the national champion Jon Scheyer, he doesn't turn the ball over. He is very smart with the ball and a great shooter that will punish defenses if they leave him open. I also think that he is a really good passer like his brother. Seriously, the passing ability of the Curry's is very underrated.

I also think people are making a huge mistake by forgetting about Ryan Kelly. If I had to guess Ryan Kelly and Austin Rivers will be the two biggest scorers next year. Kelly is the most skilled big man in the ACC and when he finally figures out college basketball, he will be a force.

My final thought, is that I think that Coach K brought in Alex Murphy specifically to replace Singler. I know that Coach K really loved having Singler on the wing and Murphy has a very similar game even if still unfulfilled. I think that if Coach K loved Dawkins game he would have gotten much bigger run this year and I can't see him making Dawkins Duke's main SF this year even if thats where he starts or gets pt.

I agree that if Murphy or Gbinije or possibly Daniels are impact ready immediately, they would be the best SF candidates.

However, I am not expecting that this will be the case, may be by mid year much like the case with Quinn Cook, but until then, I would go with Austin Rivers at SF as the only freshman starter paired with all upperclassmen Curry, Dawkins and two of Kelly/ the Plumlees with the third big man playing as many minutes.

I hope you and darjum are right though and that Alex or Mike G are ready by the time the team leaves Dubai, and shine in Maui. I do think Gbinije is kind of the forgotten man in the class and will be very good at Duke over his career.

ChicagoHeel
04-22-2011, 10:02 AM
You don't think there's a defensive issue with that lineup giving up significant size, often at 3 positions (and almost always at 2 positions)?

It seems like in all the line-up discussions there has been less mention of defense than offense. I think your offense will be very good, and possibly dangerous, once K finds the right mix; a Curry/ Rivers backcourt seems particularly lethal. But what about defense? Smith and Singler were both very good defenders. Are there concerns that defense is the area where there is most likely to be a drop off next year?

Jderf
04-22-2011, 10:25 AM
But what about defense? Smith and Singler were both very good defenders. Are there concerns that defense is the area where there is most likely to be a drop off next year?

Yes.

duke1983
04-22-2011, 10:47 AM
If MP1 and MP2 can stay out of foul trouble than they can be dominant on the defensive end, but that is easier said than done. Seth gives up strength and height but makes up for it with steals and ball pressure so I think he starts. Sounds like Austin isn't the best defender in the world, but obviously that won't keep him out of the starting line-up. Thornton could always start because of his defense, but I think it is more likely K will go with a combo guard like Seth or Austin to run the point as he did with Nolan last year. The biggest question mark is the 3, and by midseason I think we'll see Alex starting over Dre and Gbinije because of his versatility and athleticism.

darjum
04-23-2011, 02:41 AM
I hope you and darjum are right though and that Alex or Mike G are ready by the time the team leaves Dubai, and shine in Maui. I do think Gbinije is kind of the forgotten man in the class and will be very good at Duke over his career.

At this stage I'm unsure as to how much shine either Alex or Mike will show until half way through the season, that's another reason I believe Andre will get many of the early minutes. Would be great to have a legitimate 6-6 to 6-8 players starting at the 3 though. To be honest I can't get over the number of options the coaching staff has at their disposal for next year and that's without any news on DD.

I wasn't aware that Duke was playing in Maui next year, I always love watching that tournament. Duke has a very good record in Maui I believe?

darjum
04-23-2011, 02:48 AM
It seems like in all the line-up discussions there has been less mention of defense than offense. I think your offense will be very good, and possibly dangerous, once K finds the right mix; a Curry/ Rivers backcourt seems particularly lethal. But what about defense? Smith and Singler were both very good defenders. Are there concerns that defense is the area where there is most likely to be a drop off next year?

That is why in many of my posts I have indicated that MP2 is the essential ingredient. I have a feeling that the perimeter defense will be suspect early in the year and you need a dominant shot blocker and rebounder to let the perimeter players know "I have your back". From watching Seth last year he tends to play the passing lanes very often and I have a feeling that Rivers will too, meaning you need a deterrent at the ring, which MP2 is. R.Kelly is also a very solid interior defender and takes charges.

So to answer your question, yes, the defense is of concern but as any player who watches Duke basketball knows, if you don't play team defense, Coach K will sit you down for someone who will, regardless of your offensive production.

Devilsfan
04-23-2011, 03:03 AM
Imagine if this were a business and trades were allowed in D-1 BB. We seem to have a "ton" of versatility at the wing/guard position and could use one superstar big and/or true point. Let's hope one (a superstar) develops before March. Then the end of the season could be as much fun as the 30+ wins we're so used to in the pre-tournament season. Scheyer and Zoubs played like super stars in late March/ early April 2010.

lotusland
04-24-2011, 07:58 PM
I think Mason and AR are the only players penciled in to start. Seth will likely start the season at the point but if he struggles on defense or distributing the ball I could see Tyler take over or Quinn if he's ready. Andre should be the early favorite to start at 3 but MG or DD could challenge if he struggles on Defense or remains one dimensional on offense. MP1, MP2 and Ryan should get most of the minutes at 4 and 5. Mason should start as long as he is healthy and, like this year, MP1 and Ryan will likely alternate starting and playing the most minutes depending on matchups and performance.

I would be great for everyone to start, play 30 minutes and score 20 points but it's inevitable that a few players will have to deal with the frustration of not playing significant minutes like Miles and Dre for a few games this year.

Bay Area Duke Fan
04-24-2011, 08:21 PM
I think Mason and AR are the only players penciled in to start. Seth will likely start the season at the point but if he struggles on defense or distributing the ball I could see Tyler take over or Quinn if he's ready. Andre should be the early favorite to start at 3 but MG or DD could challenge if he struggles on Defense or remains one dimensional on offense. MP1, MP2 and Ryan should get most of the minutes at 4 and 5. Mason should start as long as he is healthy and, like this year, MP1 and Ryan will likely alternate starting and playing the most minutes depending on matchups and performance.

I would be great for everyone to start, play 30 minutes and score 20 points but it's inevitable that a few players will have to deal with the frustration of not playing significant minutes like Miles and Dre for a few games this year.

What about Murphy? Some commentators have referred to him as Singler's replacement.

Newton_14
04-24-2011, 08:38 PM
I think Mason and AR are the only players penciled in to start. Seth will likely start the season at the point but if he struggles on defense or distributing the ball I could see Tyler take over or Quinn if he's ready. Andre should be the early favorite to start at 3 but MG or DD could challenge if he struggles on Defense or remains one dimensional on offense. MP1, MP2 and Ryan should get most of the minutes at 4 and 5. Mason should start as long as he is healthy and, like this year, MP1 and Ryan will likely alternate starting and playing the most minutes depending on matchups and performance.

I would be great for everyone to start, play 30 minutes and score 20 points but it's inevitable that a few players will have to deal with the frustration of not playing significant minutes like Miles and Dre for a few games this year.

I agree with most of this. Only a minor quibble or 2. I like Seth to build upon his play from this year, and take it up a notch. I like him to start from Day 1 as a combo guard along side Austin. Austin in my view, will be the primary ball handler, but sharing that load with Seth. I agree with Andre starting at the 3 and expect he will be improved as well.

Also agree with your thoughts in the post, except I like Josh to push his way into the rotation somehow. The guy can score the basketball inside. He just needs to figure things out on defense, and also learn to channel his energy into positives. He is a high energy guy. He goes nuts right before starting lineups are announced each game in Cameron, single-handily igniting the Crazies at that point. He brings that energy into the games but suffers from being overzealous leading to fouls and mistakes.

I feel he is good enough that we should see marked improvement from him on both defense and controlled energy. Not a given of course, but I am not convinced it won't happen. I definitely think he sees more minutes this year than last. At some point Josh is going to be a regular contributor, it is just a matter of when. His body is a work in progress and that will play a role as well. He needs to mold his body to where he is really strong but not too "heavy". In other words, good "lean weight/definition" vs bad weight where speed and quickness is negatively impacted.

Newton_14
04-24-2011, 08:47 PM
What about Murphy? Some commentators have referred to him as Singler's replacement.

It is not a given yet that Murphy will be on the active roster this year. My understanding is the red-shirt decision will be made in the fall, likely after the China/Dubai trip. If Alex does play, he is not Kyle. Just not nearly as strong as Kyle. He is quicker, and jumps much better than Kyle, but will need to put on good weight. Based on the assessments of some of the experts who have seen him far more than me, I would doubt Alex is strong enough to play the 4 in the ACC right now. He will certainly be able to play the 4 at some point though.

Very exciting player, and glad he is coming early even if he redshirts. A redshirt year at Duke will benefit him far more than another year in High School.

darjum
04-24-2011, 10:23 PM
I like Josh to push his way into the rotation somehow. The guy can score the basketball inside. He just needs to figure things out on defense, and also learn to channel his energy into positives. He is a high energy guy. He goes nuts right before starting lineups are announced each game in Cameron, single-handily igniting the Crazies at that point. He brings that energy into the games but suffers from being overzealous leading to fouls and mistakes.

I feel he is good enough that we should see marked improvement from him on both defense and controlled energy. Not a given of course, but I am not convinced it won't happen. I definitely think he sees more minutes this year than last. At some point Josh is going to be a regular contributor, it is just a matter of when. His body is a work in progress and that will play a role as well. He needs to mold his body to where he is really strong but not too "heavy". In other words, good "lean weight/definition" vs bad weight where speed and quickness is negatively impacted.

I like Josh too, but I struggle to find any additional minutes for him. How do you feel the front court minutes will be divided? I'm big on MP2 really stepping up this year and believe he needs 30+ minutes. I feel R.Kelly might be the second or third leading scorer on the team after Rivers or Curry, hence he will need to see some time. But you also have to play MP1 with his Senior experience. MP3 probably will get garbage time or injury related minutes, as there is a chance both (MP1 for sure) of his brothers are gone for the 2013 season and Duke will need his size. Some have suggested that A.Murphy can play the 3 and the 4. I'm hoping there is a 10-15 role for Josh this year, but he'll really have to earn it.

Mike Corey
04-24-2011, 10:34 PM
Very exciting player, and glad he is coming early even if he redshirts. A redshirt year at Duke will benefit him far more than another year in High School.

I think this is as accurate an assessment as I've seen.

loldevilz
04-24-2011, 11:34 PM
I like Josh too, but I struggle to find any additional minutes for him. How do you feel the front court minutes will be divided? I'm big on MP2 really stepping up this year and believe he needs 30+ minutes. I feel R.Kelly might be the second or third leading scorer on the team after Rivers or Curry, hence he will need to see some time. But you also have to play MP1 with his Senior experience. MP3 probably will get garbage time or injury related minutes, as there is a chance both (MP1 for sure) of his brothers are gone for the 2013 season and Duke will need his size. Some have suggested that A.Murphy can play the 3 and the 4. I'm hoping there is a 10-15 role for Josh this year, but he'll really have to earn it.

I think that Duke might go back to the big man rotation from 2010. MP2 and R. Kelly will start and Josh and MP1 will come off the bench together, the same way the Plumlees replaced Lance and Zoubs.

darjum
04-25-2011, 01:09 AM
I think that Duke might go back to the big man rotation from 2010. MP2 and R. Kelly will start and Josh and MP1 will come off the bench together, the same way the Plumlees replaced Lance and Zoubs.

I think Josh and MP1 would mesh quite well for 10-15 minutes per game.

On bleacher report article they believe MP1, MP2 and Kelly all start...don't think so myself.

Acymetric
04-25-2011, 01:27 AM
I think Josh and MP1 would mesh quite well for 10-15 minutes per game.

On bleacher report article they believe MP1, MP2 and Kelly all start...don't think so myself.

With our perimeter? I don't think so. I think it'll be an interesting battle for PT between the three...all have the potential to really break out. Could we end up with a three-headed post monster? Imagine if our 6th or 7th player off the bench was a legit inside player...man do I need a basketball fix. Wish I wasn't missing all the NBA playoff games by working, it could at least take the edge off!

darjum
04-25-2011, 01:59 AM
...man do I need a basketball fix. Wish I wasn't missing all the NBA playoff games by working, it could at least take the edge off!

Priorities suck sometimes!

The Gordog
04-25-2011, 12:42 PM
It is not a given yet that Murphy will be on the active roster this year. My understanding is the red-shirt decision will be made in the fall, likely after the China/Dubai trip. If Alex does play, he is not Kyle. Just not nearly as strong as Kyle. He is quicker, and jumps much better than Kyle, but will need to put on good weight. Based on the assessments of some of the experts who have seen him far more than me, I would doubt Alex is strong enough to play the 4 in the ACC right now. He will certainly be able to play the 4 at some point though.

Very exciting player, and glad he is coming early even if he redshirts. A redshirt year at Duke will benefit him far more than another year in High School.

Alex will play the 3 next year (if he does not redshirt - IMHO he will not) not the 4. As you pointed out, he's Kyle's height, but quicker.

Nov.-Dec.:
PG: Curry
SG: Rivers
SF: Dawkins
PF: Kelly
C: MP2

Jan-Feb:
Cook gets more minutes at PG.
Murphy starts at SF against teams with taller SFs.

duke1983
04-25-2011, 01:30 PM
via Jerry Meyer from Rivals...

"Jerry, always a great job on the trail. With Alex Murphy joining Duke's 2011 class, what chance do they have of landing DeAndre Daniels who plays basically the same position?

- Lawrence from Spartanburg

The message I am getting from Daniels and also from sources around his recruitment is that it will not affect his decision even though early playing time is a high priority for Daniels. The working assumption from Daniels' camp is that Murphy will redshirt his first year at Duke.

I would also add that Daniels is much more ready to play next year in the ACC than Murphy is.

So Kansas and Texas fans are still left hoping that they can sign Daniels. Duke is the assumed leader at this point, but there have been number of changes in Daniels' tumultuous recruitment."

lotusland
04-25-2011, 08:29 PM
I agree with most of this. Only a minor quibble or 2. I like Seth to build upon his play from this year, and take it up a notch. I like him to start from Day 1 as a combo guard along side Austin. Austin in my view, will be the primary ball handler, but sharing that load with Seth. I agree with Andre starting at the 3 and expect he will be improved as well.

Also agree with your thoughts in the post, except I like Josh to push his way into the rotation somehow. The guy can score the basketball inside. He just needs to figure things out on defense, and also learn to channel his energy into positives. He is a high energy guy. He goes nuts right before starting lineups are announced each game in Cameron, single-handily igniting the Crazies at that point. He brings that energy into the games but suffers from being overzealous leading to fouls and mistakes.

I feel he is good enough that we should see marked improvement from him on both defense and controlled energy. Not a given of course, but I am not convinced it won't happen. I definitely think he sees more minutes this year than last. At some point Josh is going to be a regular contributor, it is just a matter of when. His body is a work in progress and that will play a role as well. He needs to mold his body to where he is really strong but not too "heavy". In other words, good "lean weight/definition" vs bad weight where speed and quickness is negatively impacted.

There should be a few more MPG for Josh if he improves and earns it since Singler's minutes at 4 are open. The thread title is "starting lineup" and I definitely don't see Josh starting. Likewise I expect Seth to start at point and play a lot of minutes regardless but since he's really never played point at Duke for many minutes it is still somewhat of an unknown so he could lose his starting position if he struggles there. Obviously AR hasn't proven anything yet either but I think his reputation coming in is comparable to HB last year and while he probably won't be picked pre-season AA the coaching staff is probably counting on him to start and be big-time contributor right away. I think Mason and AR have the best chance of starting the whole season barring injury. Seth's spot is probably the next most secure. Andre's starting position is the most tenuous. MG, DD or even Alex Murphy might beat him out if he struggles or, if Seth isn't the answer at point, we could end up with AR starting at 3, Seth at 2 and TT or QC at point. I think Miles and Ryan could alternate starting throughout the year like last year.

Saratoga2
04-26-2011, 07:38 AM
There should be a few more MPG for Josh if he improves and earns it since Singler's minutes at 4 are open. The thread title is "starting lineup" and I definitely don't see Josh starting. Likewise I expect Seth to start at point and play a lot of minutes regardless but since he's really never played point at Duke for many minutes it is still somewhat of an unknown so he could lose his starting position if he struggles there. Obviously AR hasn't proven anything yet either but I think his reputation coming in is comparable to HB last year and while he probably won't be picked pre-season AA the coaching staff is probably counting on him to start and be big-time contributor right away. I think Mason and AR have the best chance of starting the whole season barring injury. Seth's spot is probably the next most secure. Andre's starting position is the most tenuous. MG, DD or even Alex Murphy might beat him out if he struggles or, if Seth isn't the answer at point, we could end up with AR starting at 3, Seth at 2 and TT or QC at point. I think Miles and Ryan could alternate starting throughout the year like last year.

With the size and talent we will have, I find it difficult to believe we would start three guards of their size. Austin is about 6'3" and the others are 6'1" or smaller. They would be at a disadvantage against teams with any size in those positions. I think it is more likey that AR will start at the 2 with one of Seth, Tyler or Quinn starting at the point. That will leave it up to Andre, Michael and Alex to get PT at the 3. I can see Seth sharing time with AR at the 2 as a more realistic scenario. Say AR gets 30 mpg, then Seth might get the other 10 plus some at the point. It helps that AR also can handle the ball so well, so Seth's abiliity at the point would be adequate.

lotusland
04-26-2011, 09:40 AM
With the size and talent we will have, I find it difficult to believe we would start three guards of their size. Austin is about 6'3" and the others are 6'1" or smaller. They would be at a disadvantage against teams with any size in those positions. I think it is more likey that AR will start at the 2 with one of Seth, Tyler or Quinn starting at the point. That will leave it up to Andre, Michael and Alex to get PT at the 3. I can see Seth sharing time with AR at the 2 as a more realistic scenario. Say AR gets 30 mpg, then Seth might get the other 10 plus some at the point. It helps that AR also can handle the ball so well, so Seth's abiliity at the point would be adequate.

Except that K has gone with similar starting lineups in the past with G, or Nelson or Redick/Ewing at 3. If Kyle had gone out last year we would have had Kyrie, Nolan and Seth/Andre playing 1,2 and 3. IMO it is entirely possible that Seth and AR both start with TT or QC at point if Seth is not the answer at point. I agree we would be small but the past shows that K will go small if necessary to play the best 5. Also I've seen Austin listed most often at 6'4 and occasionally at 6'5.

Saratoga2
04-26-2011, 10:45 AM
Except that K has gone with similar starting lineups in the past with G, or Nelson or Redick/Ewing at 3. If Kyle had gone out last year we would have had Kyrie, Nolan and Seth/Andre playing 1,2 and 3. IMO it is entirely possible that Seth and AR both start with TT or QC at point if Seth is not the answer at point. I agree we would be small but the past shows that K will go small if necessary to play the best 5. Also I've seen Austin listed most often at 6'4 and occasionally at 6'5.

We saw Nelson listed at 6'4" but the NBA scouts measured him at 6'2 1/2". Austin was listed at 6'3" in the McDonalds game, and I believe that is accurate based on those he played with. The small lineup would make sense against another team going small as well. Giving up 3 inches or more a position is an issue unless our guys are super players. Kyrie would have fit that description and perhaps Austin will, but our other guards do not. That is why I believe that the small lineup will see limited use. This coming season there will be better alternatives.

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 10:55 AM
We saw Nelson listed at 6'4" but the NBA scouts measured him at 6'2 1/2". Austin was listed at 6'3" in the McDonalds game, and I believe that is accurate based on those he played with. The small lineup would make sense against another team going small as well. Giving up 3 inches or more a position is an issue unless our guys are super players. Kyrie would have fit that description and perhaps Austin will, but our other guards do not. That is why I believe that the small lineup will see limited use. This coming season there will be better alternatives.

I agree with this. Especially because a lineup of Quinn (or Tyler), Seth, and Austin would, against most teams, be giving up 3 or so inches not just at the SF position but at the SG position as well, and against teams with tall PGs we'd be giving up that height at 3 positions. With our deep and tallish bench, that doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

It would have been interesting to see how K would have dealt with the situation if Kyrie had returned. Presumably Kyrie and Austin would have been on the court a lot, but it's not immediately obvious how K would have found "starters minutes" for Seth. And even more challenging to see where he'd find the minutes that Quinn and Tyler might deserve. Unless Austin could guard the 3, of course.

jv001
04-26-2011, 10:59 AM
With the size and talent we will have, I find it difficult to believe we would start three guards of their size. Austin is about 6'3" and the others are 6'1" or smaller. They would be at a disadvantage against teams with any size in those positions. I think it is more likey that AR will start at the 2 with one of Seth, Tyler or Quinn starting at the point. That will leave it up to Andre, Michael and Alex to get PT at the 3. I can see Seth sharing time with AR at the 2 as a more realistic scenario. Say AR gets 30 mpg, then Seth might get the other 10 plus some at the point. It helps that AR also can handle the ball so well, so Seth's abiliity at the point would be adequate.

I see what you're saying, but Andre is only 6'4" and like your example of Nelson we don't really know if he's that tall. So if Andre is in the starting rotation with Austin and Seth, that will still be a small lineup. I firmly believe Coach K will start the players that best play his man to man defense. We have questions left to be answered in that regard. Andre and Seth are not great on the ball defenders. However Seth demonstrated he is a very good off the ball defender. So who guards the opponents point guard? Tyler, Quinn, or does one of our wings show the ability to guard the point man. Someone like Billy King or Grant Hill of years past. GoDuke!

jimsumner
04-26-2011, 11:18 AM
I see what you're saying, but Andre is only 6'4" and like your example of Nelson we don't really know if he's that tall. So if Andre is in the starting rotation with Austin and Seth, that will still be a small lineup. I firmly believe Coach K will start the players that best play his man to man defense. We have questions left to be answered in that regard. Andre and Seth are not great on the ball defenders. However Seth demonstrated he is a very good off the ball defender. So who guards the opponents point guard? Tyler, Quinn, or does one of our wings show the ability to guard the point man. Someone like Billy King or Grant Hill of years past. GoDuke!

I believe 6-4 is legit for Dawkins. Remember, Dawkins has experience playing small forward at the ACC level and guarded Singler in practice on a regular basis. So, his ability to guard bigger wings has been tested at a pretty high level.

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 11:48 AM
I see what you're saying, but Andre is only 6'4" and like your example of Nelson we don't really know if he's that tall.

I agree with Jim. If you look at Andre and Seth standing next to each other, Andre is a good 3 inches taller. And Andre showed us, not just during practice but during games, that he is big enough to guard most opposing SFs.

lotusland
04-26-2011, 11:57 AM
I agree with this. Especially because a lineup of Quinn (or Tyler), Seth, and Austin would, against most teams, be giving up 3 or so inches not just at the SF position but at the SG position as well, and against teams with tall PGs we'd be giving up that height at 3 positions. With our deep and tallish bench, that doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

It would have been interesting to see how K would have dealt with the situation if Kyrie had returned. Presumably Kyrie and Austin would have been on the court a lot, but it's not immediately obvious how K would have found "starters minutes" for Seth. And even more challenging to see where he'd find the minutes that Quinn and Tyler might deserve. Unless Austin could guard the 3, of course.

Well this speculation really confirms what I said originally which is that the starting lineup is mostly toss-up at this point because, unlike last year, there are so many unknowns. I expect Seth to be in the top 3 for MPG whether he is the primary point guard or not and I don't think Seth had established himself as a point guard at all. Nolan struggled his soph year at point and even last year a lot of people thought he wasn't effective. Nolan was a lock-down defender and was able to get to the basket almost at will but Seth has neither of those abilities. My fear is that Seth will be completely ineffective at point with a strong on ball defender guarding him. So if Seth isn't the answer at point do you see MG or Dre starting or playing more minutes than Seth? I don't. If AR and Seth both get 25-30 MPG but Seth is not the primary point guard then he's going to have to be on the court with AR and TT/QC for extended minutes. I think we'll see a lot of tinkering with the lineup early on but by the second half of the conference schedule we'll be down to an 8 man rotation. Mason, AR and Seth will be the big three in terms of MPG and everyone else will be competing for the other 5 spots in the rotation. It's going to be fun watching how it unfolds next year.

sagegrouse
04-26-2011, 11:58 AM
I agree with Jim. If you look at Andre and Seth standing next to each other, Andre is a good 3 inches taller. And Andre showed us, not just during practice but during games, that he is big enough to guard most opposing SFs.

I agree with the analysis of Andre, who was the second choice to guard Harrison Barnes after Singler. Also, although I can't find the reference, I seem to recall an Austin quote or twitter from him last summer that he was 6-5 barefoot. He is variously listed as anywhere from 6-3 to 6-5.

The Markie measurement is not exactly applicable. He had a very unusual build with a shortened trunk but extremely long arms (something about spine curvature). While not as tall as his listed height, he played pretty big.

Also FWIW both both Scheyer and JJ were true to their listed heights, measured in their stocking feet, at the NBA draft combines.

sagegrouse
'Back in the day, Jay Buckley shrunk from 6-11 to 6-10 and Hack Tison from 7-0 to 6-10 between freshman year and sophomore years. I think Bubas liked to sandbag on his big guys'

roywhite
04-26-2011, 12:04 PM
I agree with Jim. If you look at Andre and Seth standing next to each other, Andre is a good 3 inches taller. And Andre showed us, not just during practice but during games, that he is big enough to guard most opposing SFs.

Yes, Andre has shown the ability to guard opposing SF's, and should continue to improve as a defender, in my opinion.

The other consideration with starting 3 perimeter players of 6'4" or less is rebounding.

To look (painfully) at some details of the AZ game:
Seth 9 minutes 0 rebounds
Andre 22 mins 1 reb
Nolan 34 mins 5 reb
Kyrie 31 mins 0 reb

Nolan is gone, and Kyrie probably showed his rust (and a degree of caution?) in not getting a single rebound. Rebounding is important and Duke will need rebounding from perimeter players at a fairly high level IMO for the 2011-12 season. That could be a key factor in allocating minutes.

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 12:12 PM
If AR and Seth both get 25-30 MPG but Seth is not the primary point guard then he's going to have to be on the court with AR and TT/QC for extended minutes.

I agree that both starting spots and playing time is nowhere near clear yet, but I disagree with the above statement. Austin is used to having the ball in his hands. I think we'll most often play two combo guards (Austin and Seth) along with whoever's hot at the 3. In this scenario, Tyler and Quinn will get most of their minutes subbing in for either Seth or Austin, and it would be rare for Tyler or Quinn to be on the floor with both Seth and Austin.

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 12:18 PM
Rebounding is important and Duke will need rebounding from perimeter players at a fairly high level IMO for the 2011-12 season. That could be a key factor in allocating minutes.

This is a great point. Especially since we'll be shooting a lot of 3s, and it's the perimeter players who tend to rebound 3-point misses. Austin Rivers is reputed to be a good, sneaky rebounder for a guard. Seth did not show much rebounding ability this past season. Andre has the tools but perhaps not the inclination? It would be asking a lot of Tyler or Quinn to mix it up for boards.

So if we're playing a beefy, hard-nosed rebounding team, does that mean Mike G and/or DeAndre (if he comes) would get the lion's share of the SF minutes? I don't know. We're so deep next year. Who plays and how we mix and match will be a very interesting story to watch in 2011-12.

lotusland
04-26-2011, 01:06 PM
This is a great point. Especially since we'll be shooting a lot of 3s, and it's the perimeter players who tend to rebound 3-point misses. Austin Rivers is reputed to be a good, sneaky rebounder for a guard. Seth did not show much rebounding ability this past season. Andre has the tools but perhaps not the inclination? It would be asking a lot of Tyler or Quinn to mix it up for boards.

So if we're playing a beefy, hard-nosed rebounding team, does that mean Mike G and/or DeAndre (if he comes) would get the lion's share of the SF minutes? I don't know. We're so deep next year. Who plays and how we mix and match will be a very interesting story to watch in 2011-12.

I do not think Rivers will be expected to run the offense or guard the opponents point guard. Considering how Nolan's offense suffered as a sophmore when he struggled to distribute the ball, I don't think we will put Rivers in that position as a freshman. EWill's relative success at point might suggest otherwise however.

Long rebounds off missed 3-pointers are more about speed and hustle than height. The size and rebounding arguments are similar to the arguments made last year against Kyle playing much at 4. Regardless of the arguments or what was actually more effective, K went with the small lineup early and often when Kyrie was playing both before his injury and in the AZ game. What seems smart to DBR posters and what K actually does are not always the same. I've never seen him hesitate to go small but he went big only when we had just 3 scholarship guards and one was a freshmen who arrived a year early. In other words when he had no choice. If EWill or G stayed I think Kyle would have played 4 most of the time. Conversly K has gone small to play the more tallented players on numerous occasions. I think if you say that playing small won't happen you may end up eating your words. I think a lineup including TT/QC, AR and Seth is much more likely than going big with Ryan or Murphy at 3. In other words K is much more likely to have a traditional 2/3 player at 3 than a tradtitional 3/4 player. I think AR will be much more of a 2/3 than a 1/2 but time will tell.

uh_no
04-26-2011, 01:45 PM
I believe 6-4 is legit for Dawkins. Remember, Dawkins has experience playing small forward at the ACC level and guarded Singler in practice on a regular basis. So, his ability to guard bigger wings has been tested at a pretty high level.

Yes, he certainly has tested, but I would argue, unfortunately, thus far he has been relatively unsuccessful at shutting down guys much bigger than him. The obviously example is the arizona game, where once seth went out and dre was put in, things went down hill. Now, obviously correlation is not causation, but I tend to think that andre's defensive abilities do not put him as strong enough RIGHT NOW to guard the top SFs in the league and that his defense as opposed to seth's was one of the key factors in our inability to contain arizona (one of several factors no doubt, but my opinion none the less).

I also think andre's PT and doghouse issues are highly correlated to his defense. Whether effort or ability, defense gets you playing time at duke.

I hope andre makes progress in this area over the summer, and if he does, we have a whale of a ballplayer at either the 2 or the 3. Obviously guarding singler for a year helps, but do we know how successful he actually was doing it?

good luck dre!

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 02:06 PM
I do not think Rivers will be expected to run the offense or guard the opponents point guard. Considering how Nolan's offense suffered as a sophmore when he struggled to distribute the ball, I don't think we will put Rivers in that position as a freshman. EWill's relative success at point might suggest otherwise however.

I think Austin will have the ball in his hands a lot more than any other Duke player next year (barring the unlikely return of Kyrie). He is a completely different player than Nolan was as a sophomore.


Long rebounds off missed 3-pointers are more about speed and hustle than height. The size and rebounding arguments are similar to the arguments made last year against Kyle playing much at 4.

I would say rebounding missed 3-pointers is about rebounding skill, which is much more than simply speed and hustle (although of course those are factors). Our worst three rebounders per minute in 2010-11 were (in order from worst to next-worst) Tyler, Seth, and Andre. Call it whatever you want. Andre has good hops and is reasonably strong so I hope he improves his boardwork, but against many teams we will need more rebounding than we can get from a Tyler (or Quinn), Seth, and Austin lineup.


Regardless of the arguments or what was actually more effective, K went with the small lineup early and often when Kyrie was playing both before his injury and in the AZ game. What seems smart to DBR posters and what K actually does are not always the same.

While Kyrie was active, Kyle played the "4" about 40% of the time. The vast majority of that time featured Andre at the "3," not Seth. We vary rarely saw Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth on the court at the same time.


I think if you say that playing small won't happen you may end up eating your words. I think a lineup including TT/QC, AR and Seth is much more likely than going big with Ryan or Murphy at 3. In other words K is much more likely to have a traditional 2/3 player at 3 than a tradtitional 3/4 player. I think AR will be much more of a 2/3 than a 1/2 but time will tell.

Well, first of all, it depends on your definition of small. Because there's small and there's small. As I said above, it was very rare for Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth to be on the floor together. I think it will be similarly rare for Tyler (or Quinn), Seth, and Austin to be on the floor together, although if Austin can defend the "3" it might be more common than Kyrie/Nolan/Seth was this past year.

Second, just because a Tyler (or Quinn)/Seth/Austin lineup is more likely than Ryan at the 3 doesn't mean it's going to happen very much. We have Andre, Mike G, and possibly DeAndre who will be able to play the "3," and I think it's more likely we'll see one of them on the court with Austin and Seth than it is we'll see Tyler or Quinn in that situation.

Finally, I don't think any of us know enough about Alex Murphy's readiness to say whether he can play the 3 or not. I wouldn't say your Tyler (or Quinn)/Seth/Austin lineup is "much more likely" than Alex playing the 3. We need to see him play first. Especially on defense. (And, of course, we also need to see Mike G and (hopefully) DeAndre play first, too, but at least they played the 3 a lot in high school. I don't know if Alex has.)

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 02:09 PM
Yes, he certainly has tested, but I would argue, unfortunately, thus far he has been relatively unsuccessful at shutting down guys much bigger than him. The obviously example is the arizona game, where once seth went out and dre was put in, things went down hill.

Well, Seth wasn't guarding Arizona's SF, was he? If Andre came in for him then he was guarding a "2," not a "3." And based on this past season, I would argue that Andre has more trouble guarding SGs than he does guarding SFs.

roywhite
04-26-2011, 02:10 PM
Yes, he certainly has tested, but I would argue, unfortunately, thus far he has been relatively unsuccessful at shutting down guys much bigger than him. The obviously example is the arizona game, where once seth went out and dre was put in, things went down hill. Now, obviously correlation is not causation, but I tend to think that andre's defensive abilities do not put him as strong enough RIGHT NOW to guard the top SFs in the league and that his defense as opposed to seth's was one of the key factors in our inability to contain arizona (one of several factors no doubt, but my opinion none the less).

I also think andre's PT and doghouse issues are highly correlated to his defense. Whether effort or ability, defense gets you playing time at duke.

I hope andre makes progress in this area over the summer, and if he does, we have a whale of a ballplayer at either the 2 or the 3. Obviously guarding singler for a year helps, but do we know how successful he actually was doing it?

good luck dre!

I'm not sure it's fair to base conclusions on Dre's defensive abilities too much on the Arizona game. Based on that game alone, we would conclude that Nolan Smith was not much of a player and Duke could not rebound or defend against a good opponent; that's simply not true.

I don't know if we can quantify Dre's performance on defense, but I do agree with the observations above that he improved on defense and showed good defensive ability versus somewhat larger players. A good candidate to guard Derrick Williams of Arizona? Well, probably not, but who was?

Certainly there is considerable competition for playing time for 2011-12. I put Dre well in the mix and perhaps with an edge, at least initially, over incoming freshmen.

MCFinARL
04-26-2011, 02:29 PM
I'm not sure it's fair to base conclusions on Dre's defensive abilities too much on the Arizona game. Based on that game alone, we would conclude that Nolan Smith was not much of a player and Duke could not rebound or defend against a good opponent; that's simply not true.

I don't know if we can quantify Dre's performance on defense, but I do agree with the observations above that he improved on defense and showed good defensive ability versus somewhat larger players. A good candidate to guard Derrick Williams of Arizona? Well, probably not, but who was?

Certainly there is considerable competition for playing time for 2011-12. I put Dre well in the mix and perhaps with an edge, at least initially, over incoming freshmen.

I agree. Seth going out did hurt us in the Arizona game, because he was showing some spark and getting steals, etc., at that point, but it's not clear to me that he was, overall, playing more effective defense than Andre or anyone else on the team, nor that the end result would have been different if he hadn't been hurt. (If there is any one event in that game that one could point to as possibly determining the outcome, it would be Kyle's absence to stop the bleeding on his elbow, but even that happened after the momentum had already started to shift.)

And Andre did make some significant progress on defense this season (if with a hiccup or two along the way). I think it's likely that progress will continue in the offseason and next year.

lotusland
04-26-2011, 04:15 PM
I think Austin will have the ball in his hands a lot more than any other Duke player next year (barring the unlikely return of Kyrie). He is a completely different player than Nolan was as a sophomore.

I would say rebounding missed 3-pointers is about rebounding skill, which is much more than simply speed and hustle (although of course those are factors). Our worst three rebounders per minute in 2010-11 were (in order from worst to next-worst) Tyler, Seth, and Andre. Call it whatever you want. Andre has good hops and is reasonably strong so I hope he improves his boardwork, but against many teams we will need more rebounding than we can get from a Tyler (or Quinn), Seth, and Austin lineup.



While Kyrie was active, Kyle played the "4" about 40% of the time. The vast majority of that time featured Andre at the "3," not Seth. We vary rarely saw Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth on the court at the same time.


Well, first of all, it depends on your definition of small. Because there's small and there's small. As I said above, it was very rare for Kyrie, Nolan, and Seth to be on the floor together. I think it will be similarly rare for Tyler (or Quinn), Seth, and Austin to be on the floor together, although if Austin can defend the "3" it might be more common than Kyrie/Nolan/Seth was this past year.

Second, just because a Tyler (or Quinn)/Seth/Austin lineup is more likely than Ryan at the 3 doesn't mean it's going to happen very much. We have Andre, Mike G, and possibly DeAndre who will be able to play the "3," and I think it's more likely we'll see one of them on the court with Austin and Seth than it is we'll see Tyler or Quinn in that situation.

Finally, I don't think any of us know enough about Alex Murphy's readiness to say whether he can play the 3 or not. I wouldn't say your Tyler (or Quinn)/Seth/Austin lineup is "much more likely" than Alex playing the 3. We need to see him play first. Especially on defense. (And, of course, we also need to see Mike G and (hopefully) DeAndre play first, too, but at least they played the 3 a lot in high school. I don't know if Alex has.)

What rebounding skill? Z was a great rebounder but I don't remember him chasing down many long rebounds. Blocking out and positioning down low have nothing to do with chasing down long rebounds. I don't remember Shelden chasing down many long rebounds either but I'm pretty sure both he a Zoubs have rebounding skill.



My original point was that AR and Seth most likely get 25-30 MPG. So if QC/TT is the primary point guard then we will regularly see AR, Seth and QC/TT playing simultaneously I don't think K will shy away from a small lineup if it is the best lineup. He frequently sacrifices rebounding for ball pressure which causes me considerable heartburn.

loldevilz
04-26-2011, 04:27 PM
I agree with Jim. If you look at Andre and Seth standing next to each other, Andre is a good 3 inches taller. And Andre showed us, not just during practice but during games, that he is big enough to guard most opposing SFs.

I'm not so sure this is the case. If you see Dre and Curry walking around campus they look about the same size with Dre being slightly taller. Both are of very similar build. They aren't even close to the height of Singler who is really enormous.

Obviously Dre is good enough to guard most opposing threes and he will get a lot of time there. I just think a lot of people believe that Duke would be better off with Daniels or Murphy causing huge matchup issues on the wing.

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 04:41 PM
What rebounding skill? Z was a great rebounder but I don't remember him chasing down many long rebounds. Blocking out and positioning down low have nothing to do with chasing down long rebounds. I don't remember Shelden chasing down many long rebounds either but I'm pretty sure both he a Zoubs have rebounding skill.

Actually, Z chased down a lot of long rebounds. But that's beside the point, since we were talking about perimeter rebounding. You get long rebounds with positioning, boxing out, and desire, which are also needed for interior rebounding and which I have referred to as rebounding skill. What are you talking about?

Some guards are good rebounders, others less so. Tyler, Seth, and Andre were poor rebounders last year, period. They might get better next year (I'm hoping so at least for Andre), but they might not. If they don't, then against certain teams it may be advantageous to play a SF (or SG) who rebounds better than they do.


My original point was that AR and Seth most likely get 25-30 MPG. So if QC/TT is the primary point guard then we will regularly see AR, Seth and QC/TT playing simultaneously I don't think K will shy away from a small lineup if it is the best lineup. He frequently sacrifices rebounding for ball pressure which causes me considerable heartburn.

Your reasoning is fallacious. You are assuming something which has no basis. If we accept your assumption that Austin and Seth will see 25 to 30 minutes, why do you think that means Quinn or Tyler would be the "the primary point guard"? In my opinion it means exactly the opposite. Because Austin and Seth are likely to play starters minutes, it is very unlikely that Tyler or Quinn will be the starting/primary PG.

K might not shy away from a small lineup if he had no better alternatives, but he will have a plethora of better alternatives next season. The lineup you are advocating would have defensive and rebounding deficiencies. Considering that Austin will have the ball in his hands a lot and that Seth is more than adequate with the ball himself, the gains you might see by having a "true point" would in my opinion not come close to making up for the deficiencies. Not only that, but ball pressure is a lot less effective if you can simply throw the ball over shorter defenders.

Put another way, the perimeter lineup you advocate is 6'1", 6'2", 6'3" (taking the McDonald's game height for Austin). Coach K has never fielded a lineup that small as his primary lineup. So in the past he has shied away from it, whether you think he will in the future or not.

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 04:42 PM
I'm not so sure this is the case. If you see Dre and Curry walking around campus they look about the same size with Dre being slightly taller. Both are of very similar build.

Interesting. I've never seen them walking around campus. On the court, Andre looks about three inches taller and a great deal thicker. Not sure whether the uniform or "street clothes" are presenting the illusion.

jimsumner
04-26-2011, 04:46 PM
I'm not so sure this is the case. If you see Dre and Curry walking around campus they look about the same size with Dre being slightly taller. Both are of very similar build. They aren't even close to the height of Singler who is really enormous.

Obviously Dre is good enough to guard most opposing threes and he will get a lot of time there. I just think a lot of people believe that Duke would be better off with Daniels or Murphy causing huge matchup issues on the wing.

I've seen Dawkins and Curry up close and personal in a variety of contexts, all of which indicate that Dawkins is 2-3 inches taller.

lotusland
04-26-2011, 10:22 PM
Actually, Z chased down a lot of long rebounds. But that's beside the point, since we were talking about perimeter rebounding. You get long rebounds with positioning, boxing out, and desire, which are also needed for interior rebounding and which I have referred to as rebounding skill. What are you talking about?

Some guards are good rebounders, others less so. Tyler, Seth, and Andre were poor rebounders last year, period. They might get better next year (I'm hoping so at least for Andre), but they might not. If they don't, then against certain teams it may be advantageous to play a SF (or SG) who rebounds better than they do.



Your reasoning is fallacious. You are assuming something which has no basis. If we accept your assumption that Austin and Seth will see 25 to 30 minutes, why do you think that means Quinn or Tyler would be the "the primary point guard"? In my opinion it means exactly the opposite. Because Austin and Seth are likely to play starters minutes, it is very unlikely that Tyler or Quinn will be the starting/primary PG.

K might not shy away from a small lineup if he had no better alternatives, but he will have a plethora of better alternatives next season. The lineup you are advocating would have defensive and rebounding deficiencies. Considering that Austin will have the ball in his hands a lot and that Seth is more than adequate with the ball himself, the gains you might see by having a "true point" would in my opinion not come close to making up for the deficiencies. Not only that, but ball pressure is a lot less effective if you can simply throw the ball over shorter defenders.

Put another way, the perimeter lineup you advocate is 6'1", 6'2", 6'3" (taking the McDonald's game height for Austin). Coach K has never fielded a lineup that small as his primary lineup. So in the past he has shied away from it, whether you think he will in the future or not.

You are mistaken about long rebounds.. If you establish position and block out correctly when the shot goes up you are necessarily out of position when the ball bounces long. If Zoubs chased down a long rebound he was either out of position when the shot went up, went around the person he was blocking out using his superior quickness or was just lucky that the ball bounced away from everyone but him. That did not happen very often.


You should re-read my posts. There was not fallacious assumption. I said Seth will likely get 25-30 MPG and IF he is not the primary point guard...not he will play 25-30 MPG THEREFORE he will not be the primary point guard. I made a case that he may not be a suitable point guard that had nothing to do with MPG. I did not advocate any lineup. I simply said that if Seth is not the primary answer at point he will likely still get 25-30 MPG which would leave him on the floor regularly with AR and QC/TT at the same time. That's quite a bit different than advocating a lineup

05-06 Paulus, Dockery and Redick played the most minutes of the perimeter players with Nelson close behind. AR is listed at 6'4 at the Jordan/Brand Classic so if we're cherry picking we may as well take the more recent and more common listed height. I'll take AR, Seth and QC/TT rebounding over Paulus, Redick and Dockery. I think cumulatively AR TT/QC and Seth are as tall as Wojo, Langdon and Carrawell combined since Wojo is listed generously at 5'11. This is all speculative but I do not think K reasons that he can't put those 3 on the floor together regularly because of height and/or rebounding.

Kedsy
04-26-2011, 11:35 PM
You are mistaken about long rebounds.. If you establish position and block out correctly when the shot goes up you are necessarily out of position when the ball bounces long.

Have you ever played basketball? I play 3 times a week, I am a small guard and I get a fair number of rebounds, almost all of them because of positioning and blocking out. So I don't think I'm mistaken.


I think cumulatively AR TT/QC and Seth are as tall as Wojo, Langdon and Carrawell combined since Wojo is listed generously at 5'11.

In what way could cumulative height be relevant? Langdon was listed at 6'4" and Carrawell at 6'6". That's decent height at the 2 and 3, leaving us with a height disadvantage at one position. With 6'1", 6'2", and 6'3" we would often be at a height disadvantage at 3 positions, and pretty much always at 2 positions. You think that's the same? Again, have you ever played?

darjum
04-27-2011, 03:06 AM
Also, although I can't find the reference, I seem to recall an Austin quote or twitter from him last summer that he was 6-5 barefoot. He is variously listed as anywhere from 6-3 to 6-5.

The Markie measurement is not exactly applicable. He had a very unusual build with a shortened trunk but extremely long arms (something about spine curvature). While not as tall as his listed height, he played pretty big.

To me he looks 6-4...as with most teenagers he still has some growing to do and hopefully by the time next season arrives he will be a legitimate 6-5/6-6.


I agree that both starting spots and playing time is nowhere near clear yet, but I disagree with the above statement. Austin is used to having the ball in his hands. I think we'll most often play two combo guards (Austin and Seth) along with whoever's hot at the 3. In this scenario, Tyler and Quinn will get most of their minutes subbing in for either Seth or Austin, and it would be rare for Tyler or Quinn to be on the floor with both Seth and Austin.


I think Austin will have the ball in his hands a lot more than any other Duke player next year (barring the unlikely return of Kyrie). He is a completely different player than Nolan was as a sophomore.

There is NO doubt that Austin will have the ball a lot next year, regardless of who's on the floor with him. I don't see Austin as purely a catch and shoot kind of guy coming off of multiple screens. Austin will be Duke's number one isolation player next year and others better be ready shoot when he breaks down his man.


I'm not sure it's fair to base conclusions on Dre's defensive abilities too much on the Arizona game.

Nothing about Duke's holistic season can be fairly assessed on 'that' game...time to develop collective amnesia for that one :p

CajunDevil
04-27-2011, 07:10 AM
When has Duke ever had a great rebounding team? The style of our defense - ball pressure, wing denial, etc. does not equate to great rebounding teams. K chooses to rely on more steals and less rebounds by virtue of defensive style.

I play 5-6 times a week on my PS3, and I am the Albert Einstein of midget rebounding. Although I haven't actually coached biddie ball yet, I have made three free throws in a row at a carnival - you know those hoops are super small. In addition, I once dribbled for 11.5 hours straight while hula hooping... my obliques killed for a week ... ;) (for you more literal posters - I am joking!)

-jk
04-27-2011, 07:23 AM
Folks, please don't get personal.

-jk

Faison1
04-27-2011, 08:47 AM
When has Duke ever had a great rebounding team?

Just off the top of my head, 2010 was a pretty good rebounding team. ;)

In fact, the whole offense was based on getting offensive rebounds.

But in general, I agree that Duke tends not to focus on rebounding, like maybe Michigan State, or Wisconsin.

But I predict Duke will be a strong rebounding team next year.

duke1983
07-05-2011, 04:28 PM
Very interesting quote from Chris Collins regarding our backcourt next year. Rivers a wing?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/katz_andy/id/6739555/young-blue-devils-head-china-august?campaign=rss&source=ESPNHeadlines

jimsumner
07-05-2011, 04:45 PM
Just off the top of my head, 2010 was a pretty good rebounding team. ;)

In fact, the whole offense was based on getting offensive rebounds.

But in general, I agree that Duke tends not to focus on rebounding, like maybe Michigan State, or Wisconsin.

But I predict Duke will be a strong rebounding team next year.

1999 was a great rebounding team. Until the final game. :(

NSDukeFan
07-05-2011, 04:45 PM
Very interesting quote from Chris Collins regarding our backcourt next year. Rivers a wing?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/katz_andy/id/6739555/young-blue-devils-head-china-august?campaign=rss&source=ESPNHeadlines

Where else were you expecting him to play? (I consider a wing either of the traditional 2 or 3 positions.)

Saratoga2
07-05-2011, 05:58 PM
I saw no mention of him whatsoever in the linked article. With his size and experience, I would think he will get some PT, perhaps over that of some of the newcomers.

Greg_Newton
07-05-2011, 07:27 PM
Very interesting quote from Chris Collins regarding our backcourt next year. Rivers a wing?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/katz_andy/id/6739555/young-blue-devils-head-china-august?campaign=rss&source=ESPNHeadlines

Well, read further down:


Collins said the Blue Devils may look to play Rivers and Seth Curry together as wings who handle the ball, much like Duke did when it won the title two years ago with Smith and Jon Scheyer playing the position.

Collins is just using the term "wing" as "non-pure-PG", apparently. Smith and Scheyer were our starting backcourt in 2010 (as "lead guards"), with a bigger SF.

I am a little surprised to hear him emphasize how AR isn't a PG though. I was hoping he might develop a little of that mindset at times.

gumbomoop
07-05-2011, 07:46 PM
Where else were you expecting him to play? (I consider a wing either of the traditional 2 or 3 positions.)

Amen, amen. IMO, many, many, probably literally most, maybe the vast majority of, college teams have a sort of default lineup of: PG, 2 wings, 2 bigs. I'm mostly lost when it comes to talking about NBA teams and a truly specialized 5 specific positions; but in college, not so much specialization.

So, wings are 2s and 3s who can - the coach hopes - 3-bomb or slash to the rim, maybe have a bit of an intermediate game. Play some D, preferably.

Seems that posters who insist on distinguishing SGs from SFs are thinking NBA-default rather than college-default. Or, thinking about Harrison Barnes or maybe James Gilchrist. True enough, Duke wings will have D-hands more than full with Barnes, maybe Gilchrist, and even a [very] few others. But among our wings, we have probably 3 guys [Andre, Austin, Michael] who by, say, February, should be proficient enough individually and collectively to score on and defend against most "SFs."

If we're looking for a guarantee about guarding Barnes, I got one: I guarantee you that if HB substantially improves his handle, we can't handle him. But we'll still be ACC champs.

BD80
07-05-2011, 09:01 PM
... If we're looking for a guarantee about guarding Barnes, I got one: I guarantee you that if HB substantially improves his handle, we can't handle him. But we'll still be ACC champs.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. We may have no SINGLE player that can contain an improved hb, but we will damn sure be able to contain him as a team. How much help we choose to devote to hb and where we help from will be balanced against how well MG or Andre or Austin or Josh or Alex will do defending hb. "We" play team defense. Frankly, I think much of the defense on hb will occur before he gets the ball, we will have a hand on his hip and a foot between his legs as much as possible.

Everything else, I agree with.

Greg_Newton
07-05-2011, 09:39 PM
Seems that posters who insist on distinguishing SGs from SFs are thinking NBA-default rather than college-default. Or, thinking about Harrison Barnes or maybe [sic] Michael Gilchrist.

Or Kyle Singler, for that matter; we ourselves have gone with a lineup of two combo guards, one 6'8-6'9 forward, and two post players for the past two years, including, of course, our most recent national championship team... I would think that has as much to do with the guard-forward distinction as anything. Really, when was the last time we started a true wing (aside from Gerald Henderson)?

But as Collins says, it's a "new era" now; I thought it interesting that the first names he mentioned were Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry, followed by our 3-deep upperclass frontcourt. I would be pretty surprised if it's not Seth-Austin-Dre starting at the 1-3 spots, with specific roles ironing themselves out over the season.

BTW, I think containing HB will be all about how well his shot at falling. We can keep him from getting wide-open looks and getting to the hoop with team defense, but we can't keep him from getting his shot off; at 6'9, he's like Rashard Lewis in that sense. If he's hitting like he was in his 40-point game, there ain't a lot you can do.

gumbomoop
07-05-2011, 09:44 PM
Wrong, wrong, wrong. We may have no SINGLE player that can contain an improved hb, but we will damn sure be able to contain him as a team. How much help we choose to devote to hb and where we help from will be balanced against how well MG or Andre or Austin or Josh or Alex will do defending hb. "We" play team defense. Frankly, I think much of the defense on hb will occur before he gets the ball, we will have a hand on his hip and a foot between his legs as much as possible.

Everything else, I agree with.

I'm gonna go with this bolded stuff. Especially the "everything."

But, on the other stuff, yes, you have a solid argument there. [You coulda stopped with but a single "wrong," but I forgive you.] I'll concede that K will concoct a defensive schema to contend with a presumably handle-improved HB. I trust you might be willing to concede that, for a handle-efficient HB [this being his most obvious skill-weakness as a frosh], K will have to concoct something.

Now, if you contend that K won't have to do anything out of his ordinary D-wizardry, well, we might disagree there. Not sure. My point about HB was that he's an exception to the "college-default" wing set-up. HB seems to me the most obvious "NBA-default" SF [even if when he gets there, he plays SG. Yikes!], and so multi-talented that we won't necessarily "damn sure be able to contain him as a team." Unless you mean, we'll stop HB, even if it means doing things that will risk lots of points from the other talented Heels.

Back to the "everything else": we agree Duke is 2011-'12 ACC champs. Life is good.

trey_dre20
07-05-2011, 09:51 PM
do you guys see Josh or alex playing much at all next year?

gumbomoop
07-05-2011, 10:32 PM
Or Kyle Singler, for that matter; we ourselves have gone with a lineup of two combo guards, one 6'8-6'9 forward, and two post players for the past two years, including, of course, our most recent national championship team.

But as Collins says, it's a "new era" now.

Yes, the '09-'10 NC Devils fit neither my simplified college-default nor NBA-default lineup designations. I well remember participating a lot in a thread about how "weird" our '09-'10 team was. That group was certainly an "outlier," so weirdly put together, with strengths so weird that they went unrecognized as strengths. ["Duke? Their soft, as usual." Kenpom, we should remember, disagreed. He can cope with weird.]

I'd say the "new era" began a few years back, if this "new era" mostly resembles what I'm calling the college-default lineup schema. The '10-'11 Devils, with Kyrie, would have fit my college-default lineup, with a PG [what a PG, what a shame], 4 wings [one a converted big, one a bit undersized, one a combo guard, one a regular 'ole wing], and a rotating set of bigs. Without Kyrie, the combo guard became ... well, a combo guard playing PG, but occasionally relieved of bringing the ball up court by an emerging combo guard, and .... so on.

For '11-'12, we have lots of possible combos, including several that would perfectly fit the new-era college-default [starting with 2 traditional PGs, etc]. But as many posters have noted, our starting/many mpg PG might be a 3-bombing undersized combo guard, and who might be the PG only in the sense of bringing the ball into the frontcourt, to get it to a point-wing.

I don't know, maybe all teams are weird.

OldSchool
07-05-2011, 10:38 PM
Collins said the Blue Devils may look to play Rivers and Seth Curry together as wings who handle the ball, much like Duke did when it won the title two years ago with Smith and Jon Scheyer playing the position

I think our offense will revolve around AR, who will prove Kobe-esque in his talents, albeit at a college level.

I expect the starting five to resolve around either:

PG - Seth - AR - Kelly - Plumlee

or

Seth - AR - Dre - Kelly - Plumlee (In this line-up, I expect Seth to bring the ball up the court and then either just give it to AR after half-court or they run a play to get AR into position to do something with the ball)

So who will be more valuable to have on the floor, a point guard (either Tyler or Cook) or Dre?

I think it will depend on how the three players perform and the starting five may change if one goes into a slump or doesn't perform well defensively.

Also, except for AR, there is not a big talent gap behind the starter, so we will see minutes down to the 10th guy on this team, and probably a number of changes in the starters over the course of the season. At crunch time, I think we are most likely to see one of the two lineups I have above and are more likely to use experienced big guys like Kelly and a Plumlee rather than a freshman or sophomore big.

Greg_Newton
07-06-2011, 12:14 AM
Gumbo - I agree with all that. Just pointing out that the last couple of years of Duke basketball are probably what color folks' perception of wings/traditional lineup makeup more than anything.

nocilla
07-06-2011, 08:40 AM
I still think Miles will start alongside Mason to begin the season, just like he did for the last 5 games of the season. With Rivers, Curry, and Dawkins on the perimeter, Kelly's outside shooting is less important. Especially considering Coach K's recent comments about improving scoring in the post. Miles is better suited for scoring in the post than Kelly is and provides better defense. Plus I think Coach K will look to Miles for some senior leadership.

I do like Kelly and appreciate his skills, but I just think he will be a great 6th man this year, in this lineup. Of course, how they both perform in practice and in China will carry much more weight with the coaches than my opinion will.

CDu
07-06-2011, 09:29 AM
Gumbo - I agree with all that. Just pointing out that the last couple of years of Duke basketball are probably what color folks' perception of wings/traditional lineup makeup more than anything.

I think one key to eliminating the misconception is understanding that "wing" doesn't necessarily mean "SF." Wing is just a term for a perimeter player who isn't the primary PG. Frequently, that's both the "SG" and "SF." Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Nolan Smith, Gerald Henderson, DeMarcus Nelson, Greg Paulus (the later years), Jon Scheyer (the early years), Eliot Williams, and Kyle Singler (the later years) all played the wing for us in the last several years. Ryan Kelly even briefly played the wing (though it was WAY out of position for him) as a freshman.

Some teams play two similarly-sized wings. They can be both smaller (like Butler) or both bigger (like 2004 UConn or 2001 Duke prior to the Boozer injury). Or they can play one small wing and one bigger wing (like 2011 Duke and 2011 UNC).

Other teams play dual PG (like 2011 Duke with Irving or 2001 Duke after the Boozer injury). In that case, the PG trade off between PG and wing duties, and there's only one full-time wing (who could be big or small - he's just not a primary ballhandler).

This year, it's very possible that we start 3 wings (Curry, Rivers, Dawkins), but have two of them (Curry and Rivers) share the ballhandling responsibilities.

CDu
07-06-2011, 09:32 AM
I still think Miles will start alongside Mason to begin the season, just like he did for the last 5 games of the season. With Rivers, Curry, and Dawkins on the perimeter, Kelly's outside shooting is less important. Especially considering Coach K's recent comments about improving scoring in the post. Miles is better suited for scoring in the post than Kelly is and provides better defense. Plus I think Coach K will look to Miles for some senior leadership.

I do like Kelly and appreciate his skills, but I just think he will be a great 6th man this year, in this lineup. Of course, how they both perform in practice and in China will carry much more weight with the coaches than my opinion will.

I just hope that all four returning big men make substantial jumps in performance this season. I'm not terribly concerned about which two start, because I think at least 3 will get substantial playing time regardless. The important thing is that they provide more consistency and quality this year. I'm mostly referring to Miles and Kelly here - Mason was pretty consistent toward the end of last year. Though I'd like to see better and more diverse offensive skills from all three.

gumbomoop
07-06-2011, 11:42 AM
I think one key to eliminating the misconception is understanding that "wing" doesn't necessarily mean "SF." Wing is just a term for a perimeter player who isn't the primary PG. Frequently, that's both the "SG" and "SF."

Some teams play two similarly-sized wings. They can be both smaller (like Butler) or both bigger (like 2004 UConn or 2001 Duke prior to the Boozer injury). Or they can play one small wing and one bigger wing (like 2011 Duke and 2011 UNC).

This year, it's very possible that we start 3 wings (Curry, Rivers, Dawkins), but have two of them (Curry and Rivers) share the ballhandling responsibilities.



I consider a wing either of the traditional 2 or 3 positions.



Most college teams have a sort of default lineup of: PG, 2 wings, 2 bigs.... Wings are 2s and 3s. Seems that posters who insist on distinguishing SGs from SFs are thinking NBA-default rather than college-default.


Three posters hardly constitute a consensus for the entire EK board, but I'm guessing some other posters agree with this understanding of terminology. My own use of "NBA-default" distinguished from "college-default" may or may not be an overgeneralization. I watch a fair amount of college games, and think the word "wing" is pretty commonly used. I hope to remember to listen attentively this coming season, to hear what terms are used to describe lineups. I rarely watch NBA, but just assume the terms 2/SG and 3/SF are still commonly used. Again, my sense is that the NBA is more skill-specialized and thus more likely to continue to distinguish with some quasi-precision. [An oxymoronic phrase, but what can one do; it's the NBA.]

Thanks to CDu for the concrete examples of how wings can be different-sized, how, depending on a team's personnel, they might be mixed and matched, and thus how confusing it can be to think of Dunleavy, Singler, Barnes, Shelvin Mack, and Seth Curry as playing the same position, wing. It's "a new era."

And I also like CDu's point that Duke could start, or at least have on the floor at the same time, 3 wings, 2 of whom are traditional college-level 2/SGs, the other of whom is a traditional college-level combo guard whose height would traditionally consign him to the 1/PG role, but whose less-than-superb handle combined with great shooting pushes him into the traditional 2/SG category. It's a new era.

CDu
07-06-2011, 11:50 AM
do you guys see Josh or alex playing much at all next year?

If I had to guess, I'd say both will be fighting an uphill battle for PT this year. Hairston has the same guys (Plumlees and Kelly) to compete with at the 4/5 along with Murphy joining the competition at the 4 (though we did shave some minutes from Singler at the 4). Murphy sounds like he'd be primarily a 4 right now, but he's got Mason, Kelly, and Hairston to battle with for minutes there.

However, that's purely a guess based on the minutes for Hairston last year and the fact that Murphy is a young freshman joining a crowded rotation. Obviously either could suprise. But I suspect it'll be tough for those two to overtake the three upper-classmen. Hopefully they prove good enough to do so. That would be a good thing for us in terms of having more quality depth and rotation options.

Ultrarunner
07-06-2011, 12:02 PM
I still think Miles will start alongside Mason to begin the season, just like he did for the last 5 games of the season. With Rivers, Curry, and Dawkins on the perimeter, Kelly's outside shooting is less important. Especially considering Coach K's recent comments about improving scoring in the post. Miles is better suited for scoring in the post than Kelly is and provides better defense. Plus I think Coach K will look to Miles for some senior leadership.


I agree that Miles will be one of the starters. Defensively, he is much better than Kelly and somewhat better than Mason. Last year he finally started playng defense with his feet and was the best of the interior men at being in the proper spot at the proper time. He also learned to stay on the ground and use his length to alter shots rather than leaping, (attempting) a block, getting called for the foul. Now if he can learn not to reach.....

I'm expecting a breakout similar to Zoubek. His +/- numbers last year were pretty good even if his individual stats weren't stellar. I expect good defense, decent rebounding and prehaps more offense than Brian brought. Every once in a while last year, you would see a flash of what he could be in terms of an offensive player - the little eight foot jumper, rolls to the basket with strong finishes, a post-up move. The raw material is there and I'm excited to see how he does this season. His offensive production would go up quite a bit if he can figure out how to make free throws consistentlly. (Miles, if you do, please share with Mason!)

I expect to see a lot of Ryan too but his big weakness so far has been rebounding which is surprising for a guy with as much court sense as Ryan brings.

Greg_Newton
07-06-2011, 01:38 PM
I expect to see a lot of Ryan too but his big weakness so far has been rebounding which is surprising for a guy with as much court sense as Ryan brings.

The thing I love about Ryan is how honest and objective he is when looking at his game. He essentially said as much in an interview at the beginning of the summer and I believe even mentioned it as his main goal for improvement for next season. Hopefully it pays off.

OldSchool
07-06-2011, 01:44 PM
I still think Miles will start alongside Mason to begin the season, just like he did for the last 5 games of the season. With Rivers, Curry, and Dawkins on the perimeter, Kelly's outside shooting is less important. Especially considering Coach K's recent comments about improving scoring in the post. Miles is better suited for scoring in the post than Kelly is and provides better defense. Plus I think Coach K will look to Miles for some senior leadership.

I do like Kelly and appreciate his skills, but I just think he will be a great 6th man this year, in this lineup. Of course, how they both perform in practice and in China will carry much more weight with the coaches than my opinion will.

I think with AR in the game Kelly's outside shooting becomes even more valuable, especially with the other shooters Curry and Dawkins on the floor.

If AR breaks down the defense, some shooter will be open because most defenses will not be able to recover to defend both a possible dish off to the 5 for a dunk or a kick out to one of THREE reliable 3-pt shooters.

If Kelly can consistently hit the 3 from that corner spot, it's a defense-killer. Too many shooters to cover. In fact, this might be one of the best 3-pt shooting teams we've had, if all of our shooters can be somewhat consistent over the season.

A lot will be riding on AR's shoulders to make the right decision and make the most effective pass when defenders rotate to stop his penetration.

But I expect all 3 veteran big guys - Mason, Miles and Kelly - to get a lot of minutes and the lion's share of the minutes at the 4 and 5 spots next year.

airowe
07-06-2011, 01:49 PM
I expect to see a lot of Ryan too but his big weakness so far has been rebounding which is surprising for a guy with as much court sense as Ryan brings.


The thing I love about Ryan is how honest and objective he is when looking at his game. He essentially said as much in an interview at the beginning of the summer and I believe even mentioned it as his main goal for improvement for next season. Hopefully it pays off.

I think some of this could be attributed to positioning as well (at least offensively which was Brian's biggest strength.)

Ryan was typically used to bring his man out of the lane, providing driving alleys for Nolan and Kyrie, as well as allowing Kyle to use his typical height advantage over a smaller SF to get boards. While our backcourt will be deep this year, our strength is going to be perimeter shooting and with a switch to the motion offense, there should be a lot of curling off screens and pick and pop style shooting going on.

We don't have anyone with the handle of Nolan or Kyrie who will be able to penetrate at will so look for Ryan to continue setting screens in the high post and using the intelligence of him and the guards playing with him to set him up for more shots. I don't expect his rebounding to increase to terribly much but I do expect his points per game to go up...

airowe
07-06-2011, 01:50 PM
In fact, this might be one of the best 3-pt shooting teams we've had, if all of our shooters can be somewhat consistent over the season.

I was typing this at the same time, and totally agree this should be our biggest strength.

OldSchool
07-06-2011, 01:52 PM
Let me add that when AR is not on the floor, it probably makes sense to go with Mason and Miles at the big spots because both are better than Ryan at scoring with a low post move. (Not that either are great at posting up, but better than Ryan and hopefully improving over last year.) Our offense probably changes from being centered around AR to an offense in which we make entry passes to the bigs for a post move or kick back out for a jump shot.

Kedsy
07-06-2011, 02:03 PM
I think some of this could be attributed to positioning as well (at least offensively which was Brian's biggest strength.)

Ryan was typically used to bring his man out of the lane, providing driving alleys for Nolan and Kyrie, as well as allowing Kyle to use his typical height advantage over a smaller SF to get boards. While our backcourt will be deep this year, our strength is going to be perimeter shooting and with a switch to the motion offense, there should be a lot of curling off screens and pick and pop style shooting going on.

We don't have anyone with the handle of Nolan or Kyrie who will be able to penetrate at will so look for Ryan to continue setting screens in the high post and using the intelligence of him and the guards playing with him to set him up for more shots. I don't expect his rebounding to increase to terribly much but I do expect his points per game to go up...

While of course this is true on offense, I'm looking forward to Ryan improving his defensive rebounding.

NSDukeFan
07-06-2011, 02:42 PM
Quote Originally Posted by OldSchool
In fact, this might be one of the best 3-pt shooting teams we've had, if all of our shooters can be somewhat consistent over the season.


I was typing this at the same time, and totally agree this should be our biggest strength.

I don't disagree, but I don't have as high expectations for our 3-pt shooting this year as I did last year, which were admittedly very high. Kyle, Nolan and Kyrie were certainly no slouches. (Unfortunately, Kyle, one of my all-time favorite players, was a bit of a slouch shooting for much of the season, whatever a slouch is.)

Duke of Nashville
07-06-2011, 02:54 PM
Wow, we have a lot of great players. This team has a lot of talent and could go deep into the tourney if our team starts to click together. But it's only July so let's speculate.

There are multiple ways that the staff will be able to play to our advantages but we still have a lot of unknowns. Rebounding sticks out in particular.

It appears that our best five does not to have a true point and I'm struggling with that scenario. But I think I would start with our greatest advantage and that’s our shooting.

Curry
Dawkins
Rivers
Mason
Miles

Would be my first five and then work from there...

I really hope that Curry and Dawkins both start to develop more of a leadership role on the floor. We will definitely need them (this year and next) with the departures of some of the best leaders Duke has had in quite some time (Zoubek, Thomas, Smith and Singler). We will go through some growing pains and guys will definitely step it up in practice which will make things interesting to watch throughout the season.

I don't see Austin struggling with our offense and I really think that he will add to the team in a way that could be compared to Kyrie in the 11 games that he played last year. Austin is a special talent and we have the best staff in the business. However,

Thorton
Curry
Ryan (Dawkins)
Miles
Mason

Would be my next line-up if Rivers falters out of the gate. A true point and proven defender in Thorton makes the difference here.

I see

Cook
Hairston
Silent G

Playing well from the bench, as well as some appearances from Murphy and Marshall prior to ACC games. Lord knows we have to demand some moments with the Tri-Plums on the floor. Maybe just once…

Needless to say we have a bright future ahead and I look forward to enjoying the first year of Austin Rivers, the development of our Juniors and Sophomores and the final year of our Senior Plum. Go Duke! GTHC GTH.

CDu
07-06-2011, 04:12 PM
Let me add that when AR is not on the floor, it probably makes sense to go with Mason and Miles at the big spots because both are better than Ryan at scoring with a low post move. (Not that either are great at posting up, but better than Ryan and hopefully improving over last year.) Our offense probably changes from being centered around AR to an offense in which we make entry passes to the bigs for a post move or kick back out for a jump shot.

I think both would have to improve their post moves a bunch for us to run the offense through them with Rivers on the bench. Unless those guys are drastically better (which is possible), I'd expect the offense to still revolve around the perimeter players (with lots of perimeter screening) even with Rivers on the bench.

OldSchool
07-06-2011, 08:18 PM
I think both would have to improve their post moves a bunch for us to run the offense through them with Rivers on the bench. Unless those guys are drastically better (which is possible), I'd expect the offense to still revolve around the perimeter players (with lots of perimeter screening) even with Rivers on the bench.

I have to confess I was one of the ones on here last year talking about Mason having a breakout year offensively, with us even seeing Mason taking his big man defender off the dribble to get to the rim.

I still think that is possible this year. Mason, I believe, has the athletic talent to abuse the average big man defender, but he needs to put together the confidence, vision and timing to do it. I would prescribe a steady diet of old Kevin McHale footage.

And Miles is as strong as a bull and big. In theory, if he figures out how to use his strength to collect an entry pass near the rim and clear space with his body without charging his defender, and going up with good timing to put the ball down, Miles could be very effective as an offensive weapon on the low block.

And both those guys could be effective pick and roll weapons if any of our guards would be able to actually feed them the ball cutting to the rim when doubled with a hedging big. John Stockton - Karl Malone would be the gold standard here, and if I were them I would try that out some in practice and in the early season games to see if any of the guards can make that pass.

When AR is not on the floor, unless our bigs produce, or we get something special offensively from the PG position (Tyler or Quinn), it's hard to see where our offense comes from. Both Curry and Dawkins are spot-up shooters, although Curry can be pretty crafty about finding some space to operate from. Neither one has shown much consistency in hitting a jumper while curling around a screen, and I don't see the motion offense producing a lot without AR.

Billy Dat
07-07-2011, 06:10 PM
Because he's smart and knows how the team offense and defense are supposed to run, I think Ryan gets the nod over Miles. I see:

Curry, Austin, Dawkins, Mason, Ryan as the starters. In theory, that should be a lethal amount of scoring.

Miles is next, and then Tyler/Cook, Hairston/Gbinjie/Murphy will brawl for the remaining minutes. Marshall gets beat up by his bros in practice.

jamesfrommaiden
07-08-2011, 07:35 PM
My starting five prediction for the start of the season is: Curry Rivers Dawkins Kelly Mason We all know Miles will see significant P.T. off the bench or as a starter. He will get at least a few. Josh will have to fight for mins with the frosh Murphy and Silent G now in Durham, but should get action at least early because of his defense. How much will Marshall play? I have no clue, but i do predict a start or two this year. Cook i suspect will see mins grow as the season progresses. Thats a good thing. This young man is the real deal and much overshadowed by the arrival of Rivers. Tyler will get time in spots, especially early on and in ACC games. Wow! This is as deep a roster as i think I can remember. Inside, outside, athleticism, and shooters. It should be the year of the Runnin' Devils. The ability to pressure the ball, overplay the passing lanes, and tremendous versatility on the defensive end should lead to fast break oppurtunities and wide open threes. Its going to be fun.

NSDukeFan
07-09-2011, 08:30 AM
My starting five prediction for the start of the season is: Curry Rivers Dawkins Kelly Mason We all know Miles will see significant P.T. off the bench or as a starter. He will get at least a few. Josh will have to fight for mins with the frosh Murphy and Silent G now in Durham, but should get action at least early because of his defense. How much will Marshall play? I have no clue, but i do predict a start or two this year. Cook i suspect will see mins grow as the season progresses. Thats a good thing. This young man is the real deal and much overshadowed by the arrival of Rivers. Tyler will get time in spots, especially early on and in ACC games. Wow! This is as deep a roster as i think I can remember. Inside, outside, athleticism, and shooters. It should be the year of the Runnin' Devils. The ability to pressure the ball, overplay the passing lanes, and tremendous versatility on the defensive end should lead to fast break oppurtunities and wide open threes. Its going to be fun.

I agree this looks like a potentially deep and talented team, though quite young. I doubt we will see Marshall in the starting line-up over at least one of his brothers and/or Ryan Kelly this year. I am not sure that Josh's defense will guarantee him minutes based on what we saw last year. I am hoping that he will improve over the summer and his D will force him to get minutes, but I wouldn't project that based on last year's results.

jimsumner
07-09-2011, 11:53 AM
I agree this looks like a potentially deep and talented team, though quite young. I doubt we will see Marshall in the starting line-up over at least one of his brothers and/or Ryan Kelly this year. I am not sure that Josh's defense will guarantee him minutes based on what we saw last year. I am hoping that he will improve over the summer and his D will force him to get minutes, but I wouldn't project that based on last year's results.

Hairston supposedly is up to about 235, which suggests he'll be playing inside.

As for "quite young", it depends on who's on the floor. Duke could field a lineup of Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly, Dawkins and Curry, which would consist of five upperclassmen. Or we could see five of Hairston, Thornton and the freshmen and have one of the youngest teams imaginable.

Lots of mix-and-match possibilities here. For me the big question is how many and which of the returning role players takes a step up and becomes a go-to-guy. Lots of candidates and they are mucho precedents. But it doesn't just happen.

NSDukeFan
07-09-2011, 12:07 PM
Hairston supposedly is up to about 235, which suggests he'll be playing inside.

As for "quite young", it depends on who's on the floor. Duke could field a lineup of Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly, Dawkins and Curry, which would consist of five upperclassmen. Or we could see five of Hairston, Thornton and the freshmen and have one of the youngest teams imaginable.

Lots of mix-and-match possibilities here. For me the big question is how many and which of the returning role players takes a step up and becomes a go-to-guy. Lots of candidates and they are mucho precedents. But it doesn't just happen.

I agree Duke could field the experienced line-up you have listed and I expect all five upperclassmen to play a lot of minutes this year. The other 7 are all underclassmen, however, so overall it will be a fairly young team, though not ridiculously so.

Interesting to hear that Hairston has gotten bigger, which I assume is not from eating Big Macs. :D I always enjoy seeing the improvement players make from year to year and over their careers. This year will be no different in that regard.

duke1983
07-14-2011, 01:45 PM
After watching the recent practice video and reading different articles for the team this year, I think Coach K will start with:

Rivers
Curry
Dawkins
MP2
MP1

and then make adjustments depending on how the pratice/trip go this summer.

hillsborodevil
07-14-2011, 02:41 PM
Cook is the real deal. With the knee injury and the arrival of Rivers Cook has been overshadowed. He is a rock physically. If he has any defense whatsoever I see him getting the node around mid season. Dawkins nor Curry haven't been aggressive enough to create their own shoot - I love both but they are spot up shooters only in my opinion.

Cook
Rivers
Curry
Kelly
MP2

This lineup has two attackers - Rivers/Cook, three outside bombers Kelly/Curry/Rivers, and 1 post MP2

jimsumner
07-14-2011, 03:47 PM
Cook is the real deal. With the knee injury and the arrival of Rivers Cook has been overshadowed. He is a rock physically. If he has any defense whatsoever I see him getting the node around mid season. Dawkins nor Curry haven't been aggressive enough to create their own shoot - I love both but they are spot up shooters only in my opinion.

Cook
Rivers
Curry
Kelly
MP2

This lineup has two attackers - Rivers/Cook, three outside bombers Kelly/Curry/Rivers, and 1 post MP2

Curry and Dawkins showed sporadic ability to create off the dribble last season but did not do so consistently. Was that because the presence of Singler, Smith and (sometimes) Irving lessened the necessity? Or was it because of a fundamental inability to do so on a regular basis?

We'll find out soon enough, I suppose. But I wouldn't go into the season with assumption that any player in 2011-12 will be the same player we saw in 2010-11.

COYS
07-14-2011, 05:16 PM
Curry and Dawkins showed sporadic ability to create off the dribble last season but did not do so consistently. Was that because the presence of Singler, Smith and (sometimes) Irving lessened the necessity? Or was it because of a fundamental inability to do so on a regular basis?

We'll find out soon enough, I suppose. But I wouldn't go into the season with assumption that any player in 2011-12 will be the same player we saw in 2010-11.

I would go a bit further and say that Curry definitely flashed the ability to manage the offense for an extended period on a number of occasions. His style was more Scheyer than Kyrie, but I would expect to see an improved Seth do an even better job running the offense next year. I hope that Cook is a key cog in the rotation, but I hope he isn't inserted into the lineup because Curry isn't doing enough to move the ball around for others.

lotusland
07-14-2011, 11:35 PM
I had thought MP3 might redshift but the more I think about it if MP2 turns pro after this yr MP3 is our starting center the following year so whatever playing time he can muster will help.