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View Full Version : Can Rivers be the best scorer ever to play for Duke?



DukieinSoCal
03-30-2011, 12:28 PM
I just started wondering if we've ever had a player with the combination of shooting range, killer instinct, driving ability, and all-around offensive repertoire that Austin Rivers will be bringing to Duke next year?

Who would be considered the best offensive player to ever have played for Duke? I've only been watching Duke play since 1990, but Christian, Jay Williams, and JJ come to mind right off the bat. But did those guys have the complete game of Rivers? I know it's hard to compare guys that play different positions, but I just thought it would be an interesting topic for discussion.

By the way, who are the top scorers for an individual season in Duke history? I wonder if Austin might be able to top that as a freshman. We'll certainly be relying on him heavily for scoring next year. I'm getting excited for next year already!

uh_no
03-30-2011, 12:30 PM
I just started wondering if we've ever had a player with the combination of shooting range, killer instinct, driving ability, and all-around offensive repertoire that Austin Rivers will be bringing to Duke next year?

Who would be considered the best offensive player to ever have played for Duke? I've only been watching Duke play since 1990, but Christian, Jay Williams, and JJ come to mind right off the bat. But did those guys have the complete game of Rivers? I know it's hard to compare guys that play different positions, but I just thought it would be an interesting topic for discussion.

By the way, who are the top scorers for an individual season in Duke history? I wonder if Austin might be able to top that as a freshman. We'll certainly be relying on him heavily for scoring next year. I'm getting excited for next year already!

After the incidence with kyrie this year, I refuse to anoint players before the season anymore

roywhite
03-30-2011, 12:34 PM
I just started wondering if we've ever had a player with the combination of shooting range, killer instinct, driving ability, and all-around offensive repertoire that Austin Rivers will be bringing to Duke next year?

Who would be considered the best offensive player to ever have played for Duke? I've only been watching Duke play since 1990, but Christian, Jay Williams, and JJ come to mind right off the bat. But did those guys have the complete game of Rivers? I know it's hard to compare guys that play different positions, but I just thought it would be an interesting topic for discussion.

By the way, who are the top scorers for an individual season in Duke history? I wonder if Austin might be able to top that as a freshman. We'll certainly be relying on him heavily for scoring next year. I'm getting excited for next year already!

Just my opinion....

I could see Austin Rivers average 20 pts per game, or better, next season.

I think it is possible that Austin Rivers could eventually become the highest scoring NBA player that Duke has produced (no small feat, and certainly no sure thing).

But, Austin next year as best ever Duke scorer?

Art Heyman, Jeff Mullins, Johnny Dawkins, Danny Ferry, Jason Williams, JJ Redick as upperclassmen were all terrific college scorers. I don't see freshman Austin Rivers as surpassing those guys.

wilko
03-30-2011, 12:37 PM
Dunno...
If he were to avg. 45pts a game and we were consistently losing would it matter how much he scores?

A better metric to me would be: Can he deliver those "must have" baskets in crunch time consistently to win the game?"

superdave
03-30-2011, 12:41 PM
I think a better question is can anyone guard Austin Rivers next year? He appears able to create his own shot over and over, making scoring his major strong suit. By contrast, JJ had to have help getting open shots via picks and shooting was his major strong suit.

Guys at Duke that were un-guardable: Dawkins, Hill, Williams, Irving.

Guys who were great scorers, but guardable: Ferry, Laettner, Langdon, Brand, Redick.

I certainly hope Austin fits into the team concept well. It's not all about scoring on the individual level, it's about making the team the best it can be.

Indoor66
03-30-2011, 12:51 PM
Just my opinion....

I could see Austin Rivers average 20 pts per game, or better, next season.

I think it is possible that Austin Rivers could eventually become the highest scoring NBA player that Duke has produced (no small feat, and certainly no sure thing).

But, Austin next year as best ever Duke scorer?

Art Heyman, Jeff Mullins, Johnny Dawkins, Danny Ferry, Jason Williams, JJ Redick as upperclassmen were all terrific college scorers. I don't see freshman Austin Rivers as surpassing those guys.

The best freshman scoring average - ever (http://www.goduke.com//pdf8/717674.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=4200) - was 18.1 ppg by Johnny Dawkins in '82-'83. Gene Banks is next with 17.1 ppg.

20 ppg is not particularly likely - especially with all of the firepower around him.

Bojangles4Eva
03-30-2011, 01:03 PM
I think Rivers will be great, and while I hate to ever compare any situation at Duke to UNC, please remember what happened to ol' black falcon early this season. Preseason AA award ridiculousness aside, people had absolutely unrealistic expectations for him to flat out lead the team in scoring from the start and be an evil doppelganger of MJ. While he came on late in the season, I would hate to see a similar type of fanbase over-expectation/pressure situation with Austin.

Its fine to have higher than average expectations for him given his talent and BBall IQ level, but lets not get carried away until we see his in uniform for a few games.

roywhite
03-30-2011, 01:03 PM
The best freshman scoring average - ever (http://www.goduke.com//pdf8/717674.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=4200) - was 18.1 ppg by Johnny Dawkins in '82-'83. Gene Banks is next with 17.1 ppg.

20 ppg is not particularly likely - especially with all of the firepower around him.

On a friendly basis, I bet Austin does average 20 pts or better.

One variable is whether Kyrie returns next year, although Kyrie can both score and create opportunities for others.

But Austin Rivers is no ordinary freshman, even for a program like Duke. Keep in mind:

Austin has already turned 19 and has an advanced offensive game
He was the leading scorer on the U-18 national team
His exposure to the NBA game and players through his dad is an extra plus
Other firepower? yes, but I have trouble guessing which returning player (if not Kyrie) will be our highest scorer next year. No returnee averaged double figures in 2010-11

DukieinSoCal
03-30-2011, 01:06 PM
I never intended to take anything away from the great players that have come through our program or the team concept that all our players much embrace. I just think that Austin has the potential to be an all-time talent, even if it is for just one year. He seems mature beyond his years, mentally tough, polished. It's amazing to think that we could even have this discussion about an incoming freshman. But who's to say that he can't have a dominant freshman season like Durant or Melo did?

gw67
03-30-2011, 01:12 PM
Just my opinion....

I could see Austin Rivers average 20 pts per game, or better, next season.

I think it is possible that Austin Rivers could eventually become the highest scoring NBA player that Duke has produced (no small feat, and certainly no sure thing).

But, Austin next year as best ever Duke scorer?

Art Heyman, Jeff Mullins, Johnny Dawkins, Danny Ferry, Jason Williams, JJ Redick as upperclassmen were all terrific college scorers. I don't see freshman Austin Rivers as surpassing those guys.

I believe that J.J. Redick and Bob Verga are the only Devils to average over average over 26 ppg. They both did this in their senior years. I don't go back to Groat's time so I don't know about his scoring averages.

I don't recall seeing Rivers play so he may be capable of wondrous things on the court but Duke will have a number of offensive weapons next year so I will be surprised if he averages more than 20 ppg.

gw67

Kedsy
03-30-2011, 01:13 PM
...please remember what happened to ol' black falcon early this season. Preseason AA award ridiculousness aside, people had absolutely unrealistic expectations for him to flat out lead the team in scoring from the start and be an evil doppelganger of MJ.

Except Barnes did lead his team in scoring, so maybe those expectations weren't so unrealistic.

NSDukeFan
03-30-2011, 01:16 PM
Except Barnes did lead his team in scoring, so maybe those expectations weren't so unrealistic.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/153/north-carolina-tar-heels

Almost. Zeller beat him by a point, according to ESPN.

Duvall
03-30-2011, 01:18 PM
After the incidence with kyrie this year, I refuse to anoint players before the season anymore

Perhaps, but it's worth noting that in the time he was able to play for Duke, Irving did not just live up to the hype, he exceeded it.

Bojangles4Eva
03-30-2011, 01:19 PM
Except Barnes did lead his team in scoring, so maybe those expectations weren't so unrealistic.

Sorry, maybe I did not put enough emphasis in the post, but I was referring to the expectations of him to lead the team right from the start, at the beginning of the season. I also indicated that he turned it on later, implying that at the end of the season he was meeting expectations, but the main point being things were very rocky over in hell in Nov - Dec.

ncexnyc
03-30-2011, 01:20 PM
I agree with Roy on this one. I'm not sure about there being a lot of firepower on next year's team. Sure Seth is capable of putting up 20+ on any given night as is Dre, but can they do it night after night when there isn't a Nolan or Kyle to bear the brunt on the opposition's defensive focus? Now I might be singing a different tune if Kyrie should decide to return, but until then I'm not seeing it. The frontcourt doesn't scare anyone. Miles has the body, but what has he shown in 3 years to make anyone believe he'll suddenly become an offensive force down low. Mason is in a similar situation and that's if he even returns. Ryan has the most potential to become a scorer as he can pop from outside and midrange. If he can't develop his handle so he can pump fake and take it hard to the rack, he'll become a true all around player instead of a nice complimentary player.

NSDukeFan
03-30-2011, 01:26 PM
Perhaps, but it's worth noting that in the time he was able to play for Duke, Irving did not just live up to the hype, he exceeded it.

No argument here. I don't expect Rivers to average 20 for Duke next year. I expect the team will be fairly balanced offensively. I expect Mason to take a big step forward next year (please come back) and feel that he will be a leader on the team. I also think Ryan, Andre and Seth will take advantage of more scoring responsibility. I could certainly see Austin leading the team in scoring (hopefully with lots of help from Kyrie), but think there are enough other good options on the team that he will not need to have the greatest freshman scoring season and one of the best overall scoring seasons for Duke next year.

roywhite
03-30-2011, 01:33 PM
I should correct one item from an earlier post.

Based on some checking, I think Austin's birth date is 8/1/1992, which would make him 18 years old currently, and 19 when Fall semester starts. There was some talk that he could have reclassified to the high school class of 2010, but nowadays he's not unusually "old" for a graduating high schooler.

20+ points per game for Austin this next season....anybody with me? :)

nocilla
03-30-2011, 01:42 PM
Scoring Average

Rk Name, Year G Pts Avg
1. J.J. Redick (Sr.), 2006 36 964 26.8
2. Bob Verga (Sr.), 1967 27 705 26.1
3. Dick Groat (Sr.), 1952 30 780 26.0
4. Art Heyman (Jr.), 1962 24 608 25.3
5. Dick Groat (Jr.), 1951 33 831 25.18
6. Art Heyman (So.), 1961 25 629 25.16
7. Art Heyman (Sr.), 1963 30 747 24.9
8. Tate Armstrong (Jr.), 1976 27 654 24.22
9. Jeff Mullins (Sr.), 1964 31 750 24.19
10. Danny Ferry (Sr.), 1989 35 791 22.6
Minimum 20 games played


Freshman Scoring Average

Rk Name, Year G Pts Avg
1. Johnny Dawkins, 1982-83 28 506 18.1
2. Gene Banks, 1977-78 34 581 17.1
3. Mike Gminski, 1976-77 27 414 15.3
4. Luol Deng, 2003-04 37 558 15.1
5. J.J. Redick, 2002-03 33 495 15.0
6. Jason Williams, 1999-00 34 492 14.5
7. Elton Brand, 1997-98 21 281 13.4
8. Jim Spanarkel, 1975-76 23 307 13.3
9. Kyle Singler, 2007-08 34 451 13.3
10. Carlos Boozer, 1999-00 34 443 13.0
10. Mark Alarie, 1982-83 28 364 13.0
Minimum 20 games played

J4Kop99
03-30-2011, 01:45 PM
Let's not set the bar too high for Rivers. God forbid something happens, I won't be able to take another year like we just went through with the Toe.

AZLA
03-30-2011, 01:46 PM
Except Barnes did lead his team in scoring, so maybe those expectations weren't so unrealistic.

Barnes is an exceptional talent. It's too bad he chose to go elsewhere. He also didn't anoint himself pre-season AA. That was put on his shoulders. There should be an unwritten rule not to do that to incoming freshman. But, looking back, Barnes' second half of the season warranted him in the discussion. Also, during NCAA tourney interviews he addressed this issue and gave a mature, well-thought out response that he was trying his best as a freshman to live up to the accolade. I think he did in the Tourney.

Per the question about Austin. He does appear to merge the best characteristics of previous Duke play-makers and shooters. He will be an effective scorer next year, but obviously, he will be even more effective if Kyrie stays as he will be the focal point of opposing defenses.

licc85
03-30-2011, 01:48 PM
I dunno how much stats actually play in here. JJ scored a ton because the team's offense was built to get him open shots. I'm not saying he's not a GREAT offensive player, he's actually one of favorite dukies ever, but he's still more of a pure shooter than a complete offensive player. If you want to go off pure offensive ability, I gotta go with Christian Laettner. Laettner was a nightmare of a matchup because he was 6'11 and had an unbelievable shooting touch for a big man. He could post you up with his back to the basket game, he could face you up and drive past you or shoot over you, he was just unstoppable. He also had a nasty competitive attitude too.

throatybeard
03-30-2011, 01:52 PM
I think he has a better chance of having his jersey retired than Shavlik Randolph does.

He's no Brian Bersticker, though

Reilly
03-30-2011, 01:54 PM
Some numbers from the goduke stats database ...

Johnny scored 18 pts/35 minutes as a frosh
Johnny scored 20 pts/33 minutes as a senior (his minutes went down over career)

JJ scored 15 pts/30 minutes as a frosh
JJ scored 27 pts/37 minutes as a senior

Ferry scored 22.6 pts/33 minutes as a senior

Laettner scored 20 pts/30 minutes one year; 21.5 pts/32 minutes another

Two guys who seemed to me to be pretty good scorers:

Maggette scored 10.6 pts/17.7 minutes. That's a pace better than Dawkins' and JJ's 1:2 frosh pace.

Also, Will Avery scored 15 pts/31 minutes as a sophomore; on pace with Johnny and JJ's frosh paces.

uh_no
03-30-2011, 01:56 PM
Perhaps, but it's worth noting that in the time he was able to play for Duke, Irving did not just live up to the hype, he exceeded it.

still bad karma IMO :P

OldPhiKap
03-30-2011, 01:58 PM
He's no Brian Bersticker, though

Who is?

DukieinSoCal
03-30-2011, 02:04 PM
It's amazing to me that JJ averaged 27 pts/gm as a senior without being able to drive on people consistently. I suppose he got a few extra points at the end of games shooting free throws but still, what an amazing feat.

With regards to the Harrison Barnes comparisons, I wonder if Austin is stronger than Barnes mentally. He's always described as a "killer" by scouts. It seems that he has that drive/confidence/ego that Christian had. When you combine that kind of mental game with his physical skills, the sky's the limit.

I know Barnes has hit some big-time shots but he seems a bit introverted/deferring to me. He kind of reminds me of Chris Webber in the sense that they are super-talented and sometimes act the part of a gangsta but they never seem totally comfortable in the spotlight, leading a team.

mkline09
03-30-2011, 02:06 PM
Who is?

Only the greatest Tar heel ever.

Rudy
03-30-2011, 02:23 PM
It's amazing to me that JJ averaged 27 pts/gm as a senior without being able to drive on people consistently. I suppose he got a few extra points at the end of games shooting free throws but still, what an amazing feat.

Hmm. My memory of his senior year is different than yours. The leap in his game from junior to senior year as I recall was his new ability to attack the rim. This is what led to so many foul shots. It also is what led to our pain in the last tournament game when he was hammered so much on drives and no longer got the calls.

jimsumner
03-30-2011, 02:27 PM
Art Heyman averaged 25 ppg for three seasons, without a shot clock or a three-point shot.

Just saying.

Saratoga2
03-30-2011, 02:47 PM
Barnes is an exceptional talent. It's too bad he chose to go elsewhere. He also didn't anoint himself pre-season AA. That was put on his shoulders. There should be an unwritten rule not to do that to incoming freshman. But, looking back, Barnes' second half of the season warranted him in the discussion. Also, during NCAA tourney interviews he addressed this issue and gave a mature, well-thought out response that he was trying his best as a freshman to live up to the accolade. I think he did in the Tourney.

Per the question about Austin. He does appear to merge the best characteristics of previous Duke play-makers and shooters. He will be an effective scorer next year, but obviously, he will be even more effective if Kyrie stays as he will be the focal point of opposing defenses.

No one mentioned Austin's defense. We all know that he won't be on the floor as much if his defense isn't solid. Kyrie came in with the whole package and might have been our leading freshman scorer of all time had he been healthy all season.

The best possible scenario for Duke is that Kyrie come back and play a year with Austin. That would be a backcourt the likes of which would become legendary.

bluepenguin
03-30-2011, 02:59 PM
I would have to give that question an unequivocal NO. To be the best scorer, you would need to play 4 seasons. I seriously doubt, given what we have seen of Rivers already, that he will be at Duke for 4 years.
Now if you asked "Could he be the best scorer?" Then I would say, possibly -- if he stayed 4 years.

dcdevil2009
03-30-2011, 03:25 PM
I would have to give that question an unequivocal NO. To be the best scorer, you would need to play 4 seasons. I seriously doubt, given what we have seen of Rivers already, that he will be at Duke for 4 years.
Now if you asked "Could he be the best scorer?" Then I would say, possibly -- if he stayed 4 years.

I don't think a freshman Austin Rivers will be the best scorer in Duke history, but I disagree that you have to play for four years to earn that title. Kyle had more career points than Nolan, but Nolan was a better "scorer" in their junior and senior years. Likewise, Jason Williams was a better scorer than both of them, but stayed only three years. Would you exclude him from the greatest scorer in Duke history because of that?

On a different note, I'm hesitant to use the term scorer when talking about Austin Rivers (or Kyrie for that matter) because it makes them seem too one dimensional. When I hear scorer, I think of guys like Allen Iverson or Tracy McGrady, who score a lot of points, but need a lot of shots to do it and don't always make their teammates better because of it. On a college level, I'd put Jimmer Fredette, Adam Morrison, and Steph Curry in this group as well. (I'm not saying those guys didn't help their teams or win games with that style, only that sometimes scoring a lot of points comes at the expense of the team as a whole.) If the team is better off with Austin scoring 20, while taking a ton of shots, then I'm all for it, but if Duke is better with him scoring an efficient 15 PPG with 4-5 assists and solid defense, I'd take that every day of the week.

SuperTurkey
03-30-2011, 03:42 PM
He's no Brian Bersticker, though

The STICK!

On a related note, I hear Nick Horvath is tearing it up in summer practices.

licc85
03-30-2011, 04:01 PM
I would have to give that question an unequivocal NO. To be the best scorer, you would need to play 4 seasons. I seriously doubt, given what we have seen of Rivers already, that he will be at Duke for 4 years.
Now if you asked "Could he be the best scorer?" Then I would say, possibly -- if he stayed 4 years.

pretty sure the OP meant "best scorer, post college career included." For instance, MJ was easily the best scorer to ever play for UNC, but he didn't play 4 years. How will Austin do in the NBA? Nobody knows for sure. He could go on to become the best offensive player to ever play at Duke, or he might not. We haven't seen him play in college. I personally think Grant Hill was THE greatest talent to ever play in a Duke uniform, but he's not necessarily a record holder for a ton of stats at Duke.

Indoor66
03-30-2011, 04:12 PM
Who is?

Who wants to be?

DukieinSoCal
03-30-2011, 04:16 PM
pretty sure the OP meant "best scorer, post college career included." For instance, MJ was easily the best scorer to ever play for UNC, but he didn't play 4 years. How will Austin do in the NBA? Nobody knows for sure. He could go on to become the best offensive player to ever play at Duke, or he might not. We haven't seen him play in college. I personally think Grant Hill was THE greatest talent to ever play in a Duke uniform, but he's not necessarily a record holder for a ton of stats at Duke.

I was actually only thinking about Austin next year at Duke, but it is another interesting question that you pose. And of course, how you define "scorer" can be pretty varied and subjective, which makes the discussion all the more interesting. I certainly wouldn't limit the criteria to statistics. We have to also consider efficiency, how many different ways a player can score, context of era and team, etc.

And I don't want people to get too worked up about ignoring the team concept and the priority of winning over individual accolades. This is just for fun, since we are fans after all. The coaches will take care of all the important stuff. :cool:

Indoor66
03-30-2011, 04:19 PM
pretty sure the OP meant "best scorer, post college career included." For instance, MJ was easily the best scorer to ever play for UNC, but he didn't play 4 years. How will Austin do in the NBA? Nobody knows for sure. He could go on to become the best offensive player to ever play at Duke, or he might not. We haven't seen him play in college. I personally think Grant Hill was THE greatest talent to ever play in a Duke uniform, but he's not necessarily a record holder for a ton of stats at Duke.

Why, in a discussion of Duke Basketball scorers and season averages would we consider what a player accomplishes after he leaves Duke? That data is, IMO, irrelevant to his accomplishments while here or his ranking or standing as a scorer.

sporthenry
03-30-2011, 04:22 PM
Hmm. My memory of his senior year is different than yours. The leap in his game from junior to senior year as I recall was his new ability to attack the rim. This is what led to so many foul shots. It also is what led to our pain in the last tournament game when he was hammered so much on drives and no longer got the calls.

I would have to agree that JJ's senior year really was pretty amazing. Not only did he get to the rim more but his mid range game became unstoppable. I always think of the game vs Texas when he put up 41 and could not be stopped. The shots he was taking were fade aways, off screens, etc. So I would definitely add JJ senior year to the list of unstoppable players but I guess the LSU game seems to dispel that notion.

Tjenkins
03-30-2011, 04:26 PM
I hope Rivers becomes one of the best scorers in Duke history and leads teams to multiple National Championships.

But speculation about him becoming "the best scorer ever" reminds me of Hank Aaron's prediction that Brad Komminsk would be a super star.

DukieinSoCal
03-30-2011, 04:36 PM
There's a nice article up on espn's recruiting page comparing the current crop of McDonald's kids to their NBA counterparts. Austin was compared to Kobe and once again, that word "killer" comes up. Maybe this is some good karma coming our way since Kobe's always saying how he wish he could have played a season for coach K at Duke. :cool:

And Quinn is compared to Darren Collison and Marshall to Aldrich. Not bad.

roywhite
03-30-2011, 04:42 PM
I would have to agree that JJ's senior year really was pretty amazing. Not only did he get to the rim more but his mid range game became unstoppable. I always think of the game vs Texas when he put up 41 and could not be stopped. The shots he was taking were fade aways, off screens, etc. So I would definitely add JJ senior year to the list of unstoppable players but I guess the LSU game seems to dispel that notion.

Another amazing performance from JJ's senior year was the home game vs UVa, where he scored 40 points and had just 13 FG attempts. Details in this boxscore from goduke (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20060128)

Back to the topic:

Will no one join me in a prediction of Austin Rivers averaging 20 points or more per game next year?

Kedsy
03-30-2011, 04:52 PM
Will no one join me in a prediction of Austin Rivers averaging 20 points or more per game next year?

It would not surprise me if Austin puts up 20+ per game next year. I'm just hoping he plays good D.

superdave
03-30-2011, 04:56 PM
It would not surprise me if Austin puts up 20+ per game next year. I'm just hoping he plays good D.

I could see Austin really enjoying over-playing the passing lanes which fits into the Duke defensive gameplan. But the backside help has to be part of it too. He's got the size and quickness to be a really good defender. I seem to remember him tweeting about how upset he was for letting his teammates down on the defensive end back in the fall. Hope he takes that end as seriously as the other.

jimrowe0
03-30-2011, 04:58 PM
It would not surprise me if Austin puts up 20+ per game next year. I'm just hoping he plays good D.

He's got the tools and K will make that an emphasis.

DukieinSoCal
03-30-2011, 04:58 PM
Another amazing performance from JJ's senior year was the home game vs UVa, where he scored 40 points and had just 13 FG attempts. Details in this boxscore from goduke (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20060128)

Back to the topic:

Will no one join me in a prediction of Austin Rivers averaging 20 points or more per game next year?

Sure, why not? Wouldn't surprise me at all. With the way coach K handled Kyrie's situation, handing him the keys to the team and revolving our pre-season planning around him, he's obviously not afraid to put a lot on a freshman's shoulders. Austin will likely be the focal point of the offense next year. We don't really have any other dominant scorers on the team right now. We should get nice contributions from Ryan, Seth, Andre, Mason(if he stays), but Austin will probably get a high percentage of the shots.

licc85
03-30-2011, 05:10 PM
I posted this link in the Quinn Cook thread, but Austin and Marshall are mentioned too:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/recruiting/basketball/mens/news/story?id=6273251

His NBA comp is KOBE . . . i hope he can live up to that, Kobe was the greatest player to ALMOST become a dukie

that being said, I dont think he averages 20 points a game, whether kyrie is back or not. Averaging 20 points in the ACC as a freshman is pretty absurd if you think about it. Playing 4 years in high in now way prepares you for the type of defenses he will see in the ACC. If kyrie goes pro, he is the focus of every scouting report and teams will do everything they can to stop him. As a freshman, I don't think he will be able to just handle any team. Will he score 30 points in a game? No question. Will he average 20? I dunno, that's saying he is at LEAST as good as Nolan was THIS year. That's hard to do. I think he averages around 17-18 with 2 or 3 assists and 45% shooting. That by itself would probably put him in the conversation for 1st team all ACC, and easily win him freshman of the year

yancem
03-30-2011, 05:17 PM
Another amazing performance from JJ's senior year was the home game vs UVa, where he scored 40 points and had just 13 FG attempts. Details in this boxscore from goduke (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20060128)

Back to the topic:

Will no one join me in a prediction of Austin Rivers averaging 20 points or more per game next year?

I think that will depend a lot on whether Irving comes back, Daniels signs and the development of Curry, Dawkins, Kelly and MP2. That being said, I think he is certainly capable of putting up 20+ ppg.

SupaDave
03-30-2011, 05:22 PM
That step back three Austin has is killer man. Cheese on bread - that's all I got to say about that.

dukeblue4ever
03-30-2011, 05:28 PM
Scoring Average

Rk Name, Year G Pts Avg
1. J.J. Redick (Sr.), 2006 36 964 26.8
2. Bob Verga (Sr.), 1967 27 705 26.1
3. Dick Groat (Sr.), 1952 30 780 26.0
4. Art Heyman (Jr.), 1962 24 608 25.3
5. Dick Groat (Jr.), 1951 33 831 25.18
6. Art Heyman (So.), 1961 25 629 25.16
7. Art Heyman (Sr.), 1963 30 747 24.9
8. Tate Armstrong (Jr.), 1976 27 654 24.22
9. Jeff Mullins (Sr.), 1964 31 750 24.19
10. Danny Ferry (Sr.), 1989 35 791 22.6
Minimum 20 games played


Freshman Scoring Average

Rk Name, Year G Pts Avg
1. Johnny Dawkins, 1982-83 28 506 18.1
2. Gene Banks, 1977-78 34 581 17.1
3. Mike Gminski, 1976-77 27 414 15.3
4. Luol Deng, 2003-04 37 558 15.1
5. J.J. Redick, 2002-03 33 495 15.0
6. Jason Williams, 1999-00 34 492 14.5
7. Elton Brand, 1997-98 21 281 13.4
8. Jim Spanarkel, 1975-76 23 307 13.3
9. Kyle Singler, 2007-08 34 451 13.3
10. Carlos Boozer, 1999-00 34 443 13.0
10. Mark Alarie, 1982-83 28 364 13.0
Minimum 20 games played
The true #2, Kyrie Irving, has 17.5 ppg. Unfortunately, he didn't play in the required twenty games.

NYBri
03-30-2011, 07:06 PM
Tate Armstrong could out and out shoot the ball. His junior year, he was money.

Not to say that he was the greatest scorer, but what a shot.

OZZIE4DUKE
03-30-2011, 07:06 PM
I think we'll have somewhat balanced scoring next year from Seth, Austin and Dre, ranging from 15 ppg for Dre to 22 to 25+ for Seth and Austin respectively. IF on the small chance that Kyrie comes back next season, we could average close to 100 ppg for the season. And I'm not sure which side of the 100 we would be on... :cool:

hurleyfor3
03-30-2011, 08:33 PM
Who wants to be?

Why bother trying?

Newton_14
03-30-2011, 09:33 PM
still bad karma IMO :P

I totally agree. A thread was started last summer asking "where the 2010-11 Duke team would rank in history". I am of the mind that questions like this should be asked after the career/season is completed, rather than before they ever start.

Austin is a great talent and likely a "can't miss" prospect, but that doesn't change the fact that he is just that, "a prospect". He may very well be a great scorer in college, but that needs to playout before judgement can be rendered on where he ranks among great scorers in Duke history. Just my two cents..

Devil in the Blue Dress
03-31-2011, 11:48 AM
Art Heyman averaged 25 ppg for three seasons, without a shot clock or a three-point shot.

Just saying.

Who knows what Artie would have in the record books if freshman had been allowed to play varsity then.

Jim, thanks for this reminder of some past talent and records!

David
03-31-2011, 11:59 AM
An old Michael Jordan/Dean Smith joke, but...

Do you know the only person who can hold Austin Rivers under 20pts next season?




Coach K.

Channing
03-31-2011, 03:30 PM
count me in the group that thinks this thread is setting the kid up for a ton of criticism. Barnes was annointed the chosen one, and really struggled from the get go. It took him more than half a season to get comfortable, and he still wasn't all that consistent down the stretch.

I love conjecture as much as the next guy, and am usually not a proponent of advising what to and not to post on a message board, but this seems extreme.

In my mind, a more appropriate thread is: How great of a scorer can Rivers be? At least then we aren't comparing him to the best to ever live in the gothic wonderland before he takes his first class.

SupaDave
05-01-2011, 11:03 AM
Well Dimemag chimes in on the subject... Highlight video included.

http://dimemag.com/2011/04/austin-rivers-is-a-problem/

SupaDave
05-01-2011, 11:21 AM
AND another video from Ballsislife...

Austin makes me happy... He's like JJ, Jason, Maggette, and Grant all rolled into one person.

http://www.slamonline.com/online/media/slam-tv/2011/04/video-austin-rivers-official-ballislife-mixtape/

Lord Ash
05-01-2011, 11:26 AM
Austin makes me happy... He's like JJ, Jason, Maggette, and Grant all rolled into one person.


I can't help but think you are joking here:)

Jderf
05-01-2011, 11:27 AM
AND another video from Ballsislife...

Austin makes me happy... He's like JJ, Jason, Maggette, and Grant all rolled into one person.

http://www.slamonline.com/online/media/slam-tv/2011/04/video-austin-rivers-official-ballislife-mixtape/

I have a feeling that, upon his arrival at Duke, the board's general use of the word "swag" will skyrocket.

SupaDave
05-01-2011, 01:51 PM
I can't help but think you are joking here:)

Not at all...

JJ - for his shot range and confidence
Jason - for his handles and reverse lay-up
Maggette - for his dunks and attitude
Grant - for his stature, pedigree, maturity, and ranking

Indoor66
05-01-2011, 03:32 PM
Not at all...

JJ - for his shot range and confidence
Jason - for his handles and reverse lay-up
Maggette - for his dunks and attitude
Grant - for his stature, pedigree, maturity, and ranking

May we at least see him on the floor before we grant him greatness?

johnb
05-01-2011, 03:53 PM
Freshman Scoring Average

Rk Name, Year G Pts Avg
1. Johnny Dawkins, 1982-83 28 506 18.1
2. Gene Banks, 1977-78 34 581 17.1
3. Mike Gminski, 1976-77 27 414 15.3
4. Luol Deng, 2003-04 37 558 15.1
5. J.J. Redick, 2002-03 33 495 15.0
6. Jason Williams, 1999-00 34 492 14.5
7. Elton Brand, 1997-98 21 281 13.4
8. Jim Spanarkel, 1975-76 23 307 13.3
9. Kyle Singler, 2007-08 34 451 13.3
10. Carlos Boozer, 1999-00 34 443 13.0
10. Mark Alarie, 1982-83 28 364 13.0
Minimum 20 games played


OK, I know we're supposed to talk about Austin's potential (high, though I think we should scale back our expectations that he'll be the instant star that we had this past year; I also think we'll be a better team if he scores 15 ppg and keeps everyone involved), but I'd rather think about the above as a team and wonder about a backcourt of Dawkins and Williams working with a frontcourt of, say, Brand, Boozer, and Deng, with some pretty darn good players coming off the bench. At their peak. that group would still be in the NBA playoffs.And it'd be even better if you got rid of the 20 game minimum--that's gotta by specifically for Kyrie, unless we have had a bunch of walkons who scored 15 ppg during mop-up time.

SupaDave
05-01-2011, 05:20 PM
May we at least see him on the floor before we grant him greatness?

Greatness? I haven't granted him any of that - but he's definitely got all the tools for it.

sagegrouse
05-01-2011, 07:29 PM
Let me quote NBA rookie Michael What's-His-Name in 1984, when reporters asked if he were as good as Dr. J: "That's not fair to Dr. J., and it's not fair to me."

I think this question is not fair to a whole bunch of former Duke players who played multiple years and won many championships for the Blue Devils. For instance, JJ scored 40 points against Virginia on only 13 shots. Christian was 10-10 and 10-10 against Kentucky in the regional finals in 1992. And it certainly isn't fair to Austin.

I do think that Austin will start from day one and be a productive player. I am not willing to assume, for example, that Austin will be as good a freshman as Kyrie before he was injured. In fact, Kyrie was the best Duke freshman guard I ever saw in November and December.

I would judge Austin's freshman year success if -- in addition to team goals -- he is on one of the All-ACC first three teams. Offense is important, but I will be happy if he excells only in defense, maturity and academics his freshman year.

sagegrouse

Devilsfan
05-01-2011, 08:15 PM
Short answer NO. It is always nice to dream though.

ncexnyc
05-01-2011, 09:07 PM
May we at least see him on the floor before we grant him greatness?
How many times do you need to see a kid play before you say to yourself, "This kids got game?"

I watched KI, HB, and JS in last year's All-Star games and they clearly were head and shoulders above all the other players. I admit that young Mr. Rivers has had some ups and downs in the games I've watched him, but it's fairly obvious that he has all the tools necessary to be a great player at Duke.

I firmly believe that if Coach K devises a system which exploits Austin's skillset to the max, then you'll become a quick believer in this kid.

moonpie23
05-01-2011, 09:39 PM
cool as the other side of the pillow...

ACCBBallFan
05-01-2011, 10:01 PM
The best freshman scoring average - ever (http://www.goduke.com//pdf8/717674.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=4200) - was 18.1 ppg by Johnny Dawkins in '82-'83. Gene Banks is next with 17.1 ppg.

20 ppg is not particularly likely - especially with all of the firepower around him.
That was the freshman PPG record, though some players were inelible as frosh. Art Heyman averages 24.4 his soph year.

From a most points in any season standpoint, JJ Redick leads Duke with 964 in 36 games to average 26.8 PPG his senior year. Five other players have averaged over 20 PPG.

Austin's ability to challenge either Duke single season scoring record will depend to a large extent on how far Duke advances in NCAAT

964 2769-1 JJ Redick Redick 36 games @ 26.8 PPG
841 2079-8 Jason Williams 39 games @ 21.6 PPG
809 2556-2 Johnny Dawkins 40 games @ 20.2
791 2155-6 Danny Ferry 35 games @ 22.6
778 1984-12T Shane Battier 39 games @ 19.9
771 2460-3 Christian Laettner 39 games @ 19.8 jr and 751/35=21.5 sr.
747 1984-12T Art Heyman in only 30 games so @ 24.9 PPG second to JJ, also 609 in 25 games as soph for 24.4 and 608 in 24 games for 25.8 as jr. So all 3 years.
728 2077-10 Jon Scheyer 40 games @ 18.2 PPG
708 2012-11 Jim Spanarkel 34 games @ 20.8
707 2392-4 Kyle Singler 40 games @ 17.7
704 2323-5 Mike Gminski 33 games @ 21.3
686 2136-7 Mark Alaire 40 games @ 17.2
677 1928-15 Shelden Williams 36 games @ 18.8
591 1924-16 Grant Hill 34 games @ 17.4
581 2079-9 Gene Banks 34 games @ 17.1

FireOgilvie
05-01-2011, 10:15 PM
That was the freshman PPG record, though some players were inelible as frosh. Art Heyman averages 24.4 his soph year.

From a most points in any season standpoint, JJ Redick leads Duke with 964 in 36 games to average 26.8 PPG his senior year. Five other players have averaged over 20 PPG.

Austin's ability to challenge either Duke single season scoring record will depend to a large extent on how far Duke advances in NCAAT

964 2769-1 JJ Redick Redick 36 games @ 26.8 PPG
841 2079-8 Jason Williams 39 games @ 21.6 PPG
809 2556-2 Johnny Dawkins 40 games @ 20.2
791 2155-6 Danny Ferry 35 games @ 22.6
778 1984-12T Shane Battier 39 games @ 19.9
771 2460-3 Christian Laettner 39 games @ 19.8 jr and 751/35=21.5 sr.
747 1984-12T Art Heyman in only 30 games so @ 24.9 PPG second to JJ, also 609 in 25 games as soph for 24.4 and 608 in 24 games for 25.8 as jr. So all 3 years.
728 2077-10 Jon Scheyer 40 games @ 18.2 PPG
708 2012-11 Jim Spanarkel 34 games @ 20.8
707 2392-4 Kyle Singler 40 games @ 17.7
704 2323-5 Mike Gminski 33 games @ 21.3
686 2136-7 Mark Alaire 40 games @ 17.2
677 1928-15 Shelden Williams 36 games @ 18.8
591 1924-16 Grant Hill 34 games @ 17.4
581 2079-9 Gene Banks 34 games @ 17.1

Nolan should be on there as well (764 pts this past season - 20.6 average over 37 games, and last year he had 660 pts over 38 games with a 17.4 pt average).

verga
05-01-2011, 10:17 PM
Bob Verga:

1964-65 soph. 21.4 PPG 53.1% from the floor

1965-66 jr. 18.5 PPG 49.0% from the floor

1966-67 sr. 26.1 PPG 46.1% from the floor

plus he was a career 79% ft shooter

plus he scored 56 points in a freshmen game against Va. Tech when freshmen ball was played.

He clearly is the most overlooked player ever at Duke and probably the greatest shooter also , imho

sagegrouse
05-01-2011, 10:28 PM
Bob Verga:

1964-65 soph. 21.4 PPG 53.1% from the floor

1965-66 jr. 18.5 PPG 49.0% from the floor

1966-67 sr. 26.1 PPG 46.1% from the floor

plus he was a career 79% ft shooter

plus he scored 56 points in a freshmen game against Va. Tech when freshmen ball was played.

He clearly is the most overlooked player ever at Duke and probably the greatest shooter also , imho

You left out the absence of the 3pt shot, which would have boosted Verga's PPG substantially.

sagegrouse

darjum
05-02-2011, 02:27 AM
I just started wondering if we've ever had a player with the combination of shooting range, killer instinct, driving ability, and all-around offensive repertoire that Austin Rivers will be bringing to Duke next year?

Who would be considered the best offensive player to ever have played for Duke? I've only been watching Duke play since 1990, but Christian, Jay Williams, and JJ come to mind right off the bat. But did those guys have the complete game of Rivers? I know it's hard to compare guys that play different positions, but I just thought it would be an interesting topic for discussion.

By the way, who are the top scorers for an individual season in Duke history? I wonder if Austin might be able to top that as a freshman. We'll certainly be relying on him heavily for scoring next year. I'm getting excited for next year already!

How is this question to be measured. Do you only take into account his time at Duke, maybe one or two years, or is it a referendum on where you think his talents will take him as a pro also.

As a player at Duke there is no doubt he won't get close. Way too much competition, as has been well pointed out within subsequent answers to the initial question. However, if you are asking could Rivers project as Duke's all-time leader in points scored as a professional then the answer would be yes. He has the necessary tools to be a productive scorer at the pro level and with his heritage and potential for a fairly long career (injuries not withstanding) it would not be amazing to seem him become Duke's all-time leader in points scored as a professional in the NBA.

But in the end from my opinion the answer is no. As with DukieinSoCal (started the thread) I have only been watching Duke since the 90's and in my time JJ's Senior season wins the "best scorer" award (Of course if Deng still would have been on that team JJ doesn't need to score as much, but that's an argument for another day) :rolleyes:

heyman25
05-02-2011, 08:55 AM
Bob Verga:

1964-65 soph. 21.4 PPG 53.1% from the floor

1965-66 jr. 18.5 PPG 49.0% from the floor

1966-67 sr. 26.1 PPG 46.1% from the floor

plus he was a career 79% ft shooter

plus he scored 56 points in a freshmen game against Va. Tech when freshmen ball was played.


He clearly is the most overlooked player ever at Duke and probably the greatest shooter also , imho
He was also one of the coolest players off the court. I think he is a tennis pro at a Country Club now.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1077978/index.htm

ACCBBallFan
05-02-2011, 10:17 AM
Thanks for the additional info on Nolan Smith and Bob Verga to add two more guys with one or more 20 PPG seasons.

I went with the odds and checked the top dozen or so all time, plus tripped on a couple others inthe process.

Though I never saw them play, I would guess you can safely add Art Heyman with 3 seasons greater than 20 PPG and Bob Verga with two to list of guys who were unguardable.

gwlaw99
05-02-2011, 05:57 PM
Austin is a great player, but I look at him and Grant Hill play and he doesn't seem to be in quite the same level as Grant. He may score more points, but that doesn't mean he is a better scorer.

PADukeMom
05-03-2011, 11:10 AM
Don't get me wrong I am thrilled to have Austin playing for us even if it is for a year. However to become the greatest scorer in DUKE history you have to stay in school for 4 years & that probably won't happen.
I will enjoy Austin while we have him I won't tempt the GODS.

Newton_14
05-03-2011, 08:55 PM
I have no doubt that Austin will be an impact player in year 1, and scoring is one of his strengths. That said, you judge careers, and decide "best ever", "best since", etc AFTER the career is over, not before it starts.

Last summer folks were trying to determine where the 2010-11 team would "rank in Duke history", and where Kyrie would rank in terms of Duke greats, all before the ball was tossed in the first game of the season.

I would just caution folks to let Austin run his race like any other player, and once he hangs up the Duke Jersey to head to the NBA, decide on his place in Duke history.

Will he be a really good/great scorer? I would say it's likely, but there will be a learning curve and growing pains.

I am looking forward to seeing Austin in the Duke uni. Can we just skip June and July and get to the Summer League and China trip right now?:D

On another note, is Austin going to wear Number 0? If not, anyone know what number he and the other freshmen will wear?

kylecpalmer
05-03-2011, 09:29 PM
Perhaps, but it's worth noting that in the time he was able to play for Duke, Irving did not just live up to the hype, he exceeded it.

I totally agree with you. I have to ask, do you think it helped our team for him to come back and play in the tournament?

MarkD83
05-03-2011, 09:55 PM
I have not read the whole thread so if this was already mentioned I apologize.

I hope that Austin is an exceptional player but I hope he is NOT the best scorer ever at Duke. Next year Duke needs everyone to contribute and not stand around and watch Austin score.

DukieinSoCal
05-04-2011, 07:45 PM
When I originally posed the question, I was not thinking at all about Austin's future NBA career or even his place in Duke history. I was just thinking about one season at Duke, since that's all we're guaranteed with any of these top recruits.

I know there will be an adjustment/learning process, but as fans, it's fun to imagine what could be. And I thought that it could be possible for Austin to be the best scorer that I've seen from a Duke player since I've been following the program(1991).

We can debate the definition of a "scorer" but it seems that Austin is very well-rounded in his offensive repertoire. We've had plenty of great shooters in the past 2 decades, but I don't know if there's been a player that combines crazy range with the ability to drive, finish, and score from anywhere on the floor like Austin does.

Anyways, it's been fun reading everyone's posts. Can't wait for the '11-'12 season to start.