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mr. synellinden
07-03-2007, 11:29 AM
NBA Draft.net has their 2009 mock draft posted - yes I know it's ridiculous to speculate this early but it's still interesting to see what people think of the NBA prospects of high schoolers and college players.

Interesting to see they have Singler and Henderson in the top 5 and the #1 pick is Monroe. Could we have a 2008-2009 team with three of the top five picks? That would be unprecedented.

Paulus
Henderson
Scheyer
Singler
Monroe

Sr. point guard - experienced backcourt - four ball handlers. Depth with LT, BZ, King and Smith. It's a really nice team to dream about - almost certainly would be a favorite to win a national championship. How can Monroe and E. Williams not want to be a part of that, especially if, in Monroe's case, it's one and done?

Patrick Yates
07-03-2007, 11:56 AM
I know that the POTENTIAL to win a NC seems like a natural draw for Monroe, but there is a downside for him.

He is almost a lock for top 3 in the draft. Only a duplicate talent already in place or a glaring need for another position would drop him from No. 1, but it could happen.

So, that $ is set. Basically, GM will spend his year auditioning for endorsement dollars. He is a decent looking, well spoken, character kid. Duke is a huge media center, be it for ill or good. Lots of press at Duke.

But, on the team you just described, GM is at best the third option, with being fourth or fifth not out of the question. GH and KS would almost certainly be ahead of him, and Paulus and/or Scheyer might be as well.

Most of his points might come on rebounds or trash buckets, with a smattering of fast break and dishes off penetration. Realistically, he might score in the 10-14 ppg range, with 7-10 rpg in 20-25 mpg. This would certainly show off his upside and potential, which would get him drafted high, but it is not that dissimiliar from the numbers Brandon Wright posted, and there are few suitors throwing big money at him for endorsement.

GM will make his pro CV this summer. His year in school is all about garnering endorsement deals. You need huge, Carmelo-esque type numbers for that. I do not see GM leading Duke to the NC. He would be a key player, but not THE player.

Heck, Texas accomplished nothing as a team this year, but Durant put up huge numbers and will make a wad in endorsement $.

At a depleted, but not moribund, LSU, Monroe might put up huge numbers, because the offense would flow through him, and he would play 35+ mpg, get to the 2-3 rd of the NCAAs, and make more in endorsement $ than being the third wheel on a NC team.

Sad, but true. Let's face it, endorsers like winning. But they like highlights more.

Patrick Yates

mr. synellinden
07-03-2007, 12:02 PM
http://www.nbadraft.net/index.asp?content=mock2009

kydevil
07-04-2007, 03:14 PM
I know that the POTENTIAL to win a NC seems like a natural draw for Monroe, but there is a downside for him.

He is almost a lock for top 3 in the draft. Only a duplicate talent already in place or a glaring need for another position would drop him from No. 1, but it could happen.

So, that $ is set. Basically, GM will spend his year auditioning for endorsement dollars. He is a decent looking, well spoken, character kid. Duke is a huge media center, be it for ill or good. Lots of press at Duke.

But, on the team you just described, GM is at best the third option, with being fourth or fifth not out of the question. GH and KS would almost certainly be ahead of him, and Paulus and/or Scheyer might be as well.

Most of his points might come on rebounds or trash buckets, with a smattering of fast break and dishes off penetration. Realistically, he might score in the 10-14 ppg range, with 7-10 rpg in 20-25 mpg. This would certainly show off his upside and potential, which would get him drafted high, but it is not that dissimiliar from the numbers Brandon Wright posted, and there are few suitors throwing big money at him for endorsement.

GM will make his pro CV this summer. His year in school is all about garnering endorsement deals. You need huge, Carmelo-esque type numbers for that. I do not see GM leading Duke to the NC. He would be a key player, but not THE player.

Heck, Texas accomplished nothing as a team this year, but Durant put up huge numbers and will make a wad in endorsement $.

At a depleted, but not moribund, LSU, Monroe might put up huge numbers, because the offense would flow through him, and he would play 35+ mpg, get to the 2-3 rd of the NCAAs, and make more in endorsement $ than being the third wheel on a NC team.

Sad, but true. Let's face it, endorsers like winning. But they like highlights more.

Patrick Yates

Well let's hope Greg does not read that, it is quite persuading(which isn't good.)
On a postive note I think the appeal of playing for a national championship is something that would appeal to him. If Greg is all about his personal stats and setting himself up for the NBA then he is not someone I would want on our TEAM.

Patrick Yates
07-04-2007, 05:11 PM
Well let's hope Greg does not read that, it is quite persuading(which isn't good.)
On a postive note I think the appeal of playing for a national championship is something that would appeal to him. If Greg is all about his personal stats and setting himself up for the NBA then he is not someone I would want on our TEAM.

In a perfect world, no, I would not want a kid obsessed with his personal stats. This is not a perfect world.

In the new, NBA age restriction era, you definitely need kids like GM, because other schools have them. Sort of a MAD situation. The original poster said it true, with GM that team would absolutely roll the opposition. That team would be close to the 99 team for dominance, imho.

Without GM, that team would be pretty good and a solid FF candidate. That is where kids like GM help. They can make a good team into a great team. GM would be somewhat like Corey Maggette, the x-factor athlete who is a game changer, only GM seems to be better than Corey was, coming into a team that is probably not as good as the team Corey came into.

What is wrong with worrying about your stats? As I stated above, this is his career audition. His stats are like grades for non-athletes. It is what his future employer will base his worth upon in the open marketplace.

For this board, Duke basketball is a sport (that some of us take too seriously). For many young men, like GM, it is a business, and a highly lucrative one at that. For the top kids, their stats are important. Why should they have to sublimate themselves, and possibly their futures, for the greater good of the whole?

I mean, it is not like GM would rather score a lot and the team lose. I am sure he would like to score a lot and have his team win a lot. That is best case.

But, even as loaded as that Duke team would be, a FF or NC is no lock. At a losing LSU team, he could help turn the team into a winner, while putting up monster numbers.

It is LIKELY that the Duke team would win more, but there is almost no chance for him to be the lead player at Duke. The need simply would not exist like it does at LSU.

But we definitely need players like this. K is right to pursue such players. They can mean the difference between a NC contender (which ain't bad), and a NC favorite.

Patrick Yates

kydevil
07-05-2007, 11:09 AM
There is nothing wrong with wanting to post good stats, that wasn't what I was trying to say.

I mean if Greg came here and had the mindset of just wanting good stats then it possibly could affect our team's performance.

Like you said GM would probabley be the third option behind Henderson and Singler. That means if he wants his big stats, he may have to take uncalled for shots because he isn't getting the touches he wants.

JasonEvans
07-05-2007, 11:15 AM
There is nothing wrong with wanting to post good stats, that wasn't what I was trying to say.

I mean if Greg came here and had the mindset of just wanting good stats then it possibly could affect our team's performance.

Like you said GM would probabley be the third option behind Henderson and Singler. That means if he wants his big stats, he may have to take uncalled for shots because he isn't getting the touches he wants.

The only thing more ridiculous than speculating where incoming freshman Kyle Singler will be on the "who gets the most touches" list when Singler is a soph is speculating where a current uncommited high school senior would fall on such a chart. Lets temper the expectations with a tiny dose of actual observation of these players in a Duke uniform, ok people?

If, and it is a huge if, Monroe is the mega-stud that so many expect him to be then I am quite confident he will get the shots and touches neccessary to put up big numbers as a freshman at Duke. Duke's history is littered with freshmen who came in and produced big numbers from day-one.

-Jason "I think it is a safe bet that Coach K and his assistants are making it quite clear what role they see for GM should he come to Duke" Evans

Indoor66
07-05-2007, 11:18 AM
The only thing more ridiculous than speculating where incoming freshman Kyle Singler will be on the "who gets the most touches" list when Singler is a soph is speculating where a current uncommited high school senior would fall on such a chart. Lets temper the expectations with a tiny dose of actual observation of these players in a Duke uniform, ok people?

If, and it is a huge if, Monroe is the mega-stud that so many expect him to be then I am quite confident he will get the shots and touches neccessary to put up big numbers as a freshman at Duke. Duke's history is littered with freshmen who came in and produced big numbers from day-one.

-Jason "I think it is a safe bet that Coach K and his assistants are making it quite clear what role they see for GM should he come to Duke" Evans

Puhleeeesssssssss, Jason, do not demand rationality on this board. The children will pout. :mad:

ACCBBallFan
07-05-2007, 12:15 PM
A player of Monroe's reputation would not shy away from competition.

The NBA draft success of Marvin Williams, Corey Magette and now to some extent even a Chris Richards show that being "the man" is not the main criteria.

Jaymf7
07-05-2007, 12:32 PM
Heck, Texas accomplished nothing as a team this year, but Durant put up huge numbers and will make a wad in endorsement $...

Let's face it, endorsers like winning. But they like highlights more.

Patrick Yates

Let's not forget that Durant, though stellar, was not the top pick this year -- it was Oden, arguably a "role" player on a very good team that made it to the finals. Although he got lots of air time (as any star at Duke would), Oden did not put up exceptional numbers and many said he was outshined by Conley (who also went very high).

A long list of stars have come to Duke, played on great teams, shared the ball and landed at the top of the draft. Having great talent around should not be a deterrent to any but the most deluded recruits. The one exception to this rule -- where a team already has a superior talent at the same position and the recruit would not get PT (which actually is more of an issue in football than basketball, particularly in Coach K's system) -- will not be an issue for Monroe.

jimsumner
07-05-2007, 01:39 PM
"As I stated above, this is his career audition. His stats are like grades for non-athletes. It is what his future employer will base his worth upon in the open marketplace."

Sorry but this seems facile to the extreme. Modest stats didn't seem to hurt Marvin Williams come draft day. Or look at Luol Deng, who averaged 15.1 ppg and helped Duke to within a different officiating crew of a national title. Would he have been better off averaging 22 ppg for an NIT team? I think not.

I'm sure future employers take stats into some kind of consideration but if that is what they are basing a player's worth on, then why bother scouting games or talking to kids or coaches or working out the players? Why not just look at the stat charts?

I simply don't accept the concept that Greg Monroe would hurt his draft status by coming to Duke and making a significant contribution to a title-caliber team. NBA scouts and GMs just aren't that stupid.

ACCBBallFan
07-05-2007, 01:51 PM
Jim, I agree.

Look at all the FLorida and Ohio State finalists, 5 of them in the top 9 of this past year's draft, and three more later on.

1 Oden, Geg/Ohio St

3 Horford, Al/FL
4 Conley Jr, Mike/Ohio St

7 Brewer, Corey/FL

9 Noah, Joakim/FL

21 Cook, Dequan/Ohio St

41 Richard, Chris/FL

52 Green, Taurean/FL

NO Lewis, Ron/Ohio St
NO Humphrey, Lee/FL

Patrick Yates
07-05-2007, 02:08 PM
Are the above 2-3 posters taking the mickey, or what?

You cannot seriously know that little about the business of basketball.

I said, plainly, that GM's draft position would not be adversly affected by comming to Duke. I was very clear on that.

Of course NBA general managers wouldn't change thier opinion. Greg doesn't have to impress them.

I was talking about edorsement $. For TOP Rookies, the starting contracts are peanuts. LeBron could have used his rookie contract for toilet paper it was so worthless. Something like 11 mill over three years. He signed for 80M from Nike, alone. Heck, even max NBA deals can pale to endorsement dollars.

Greg is, right now, a top 3 draft choice. So that 11 mill is set next year. What he is playing for are endorsment deals. Plainly, these were the employers I was referring to carring about his stats, not the teams themselves.

Marvin Williams and Maggette and Deng, Oh My! Are you stoned? How much in endorsements are they getting. All three combined are getting way less, combined, than Durant will his rookie year.

By the way, Durant, who did get drafted lower than Oden, is getting more than Oden in endoresment money.

I mean, every one who reads this site is aware of the rookie salary cap that exists for the first round selections? One of the favorite sayings on this board is that there is no salary cap for endorsements. It is one of the asinine arguments that people on this board propigate when urging some recruit to come to duke. The last Duke kid to sign a big deal out of college (cause Brand's deal came later, after he was more established in the pros) was J-Will, and that was for 11 mill over 3 years. Durant is going to be more in the 50-60 million for comparision, to say nothing of the other endorsements, like soft drinks, fast food, etc, which are sure to follow. When was the last time a college kid signed those kind of deals? Carmello. Yes he won a NC, but he was THE focus of the Offense for a team that won it all, not a role player.

Nike is not going to hand some kid, even the no.1 pick, a huge deal unless he posts monster numbers. No one expects durant type numbers, but you aren't going to get Durant type money.

If Jason wants to poo on my speculation (in a thread with the word speculation in the title) whatever. If we are not going to speculate on the team makeup next year, and how a potential recruit may view that unimportant fact when making a huge decision that will impact his financial future, so be it. We can go back to disscussing how everything is perfect in the Duke Basketball universe, with a loaded juggernaught squad, no recruiting worries, and an infalliable staff.

Patrick Yates

MrBisonDevil
07-05-2007, 02:25 PM
As stated, you don't need to be the #1 offensive option in college to become a Top 5 NBA pick:

Player and # Draft Pick
Marvin William #2
Mike Dunleavy #3
Tyrus Thomas #4
Shelden Williams #5
(This is just a quick glance at the recent drafts. I'm sure the list is much more extensive that this)

All of these guys excelled in other areas (defense, intangibles, ball handling etc...) and none of them were the #1 offensive option.

jimsumner
07-05-2007, 03:19 PM
Gee, Patrick, thanks for the nice words. If I weren't so stoned I might point out that you mentioned Corey Maggette.

Your contention has merit if we assume that endorsements go primarily to players with great stats. Checked out the NCAA scoring leaders over the last couple of decades or so? Where did Greg Oden rank in NCAA scoring this season? Think he's wishing he should have shot more?

I would suggest that TV exposure and team success are at least as significant as individual stats. If Carmelo Anthony had identical stats in 2003 but Syracuse lost in the first round of the NCAAs, would he have had the same endorsement potential? How much endorsement money is Kwame Brown getting versus how much he would be getting if he had come to Florida, let us say, and led them to an NCAA title?

Hypotheticals here. But if Greg Monroe would come to what is arguably the highest profile program in the NCAA, appear on national TV more often than Friends reruns, average 15 ppg and help Duke to an NCAA title, then I'm pretty darn certain he's not going to hurt his endorsement potential.

I think you're making a lot of assumptions here. Greg Monroe is a top prospect and I understand the fuss. But most recruiting experts agree that the Class of '08 is weaker than that of '07 and '09 and that Monroe might not be a top five in either year. He's almost certainly not a LeBron James. If all he's thinking about now is padding his stats and maximizing his endorsement potential, then he might want to check in with Jerard Ward or Felipe Lopez or Gerald Green and see how much that #1 high-school ranking guarantees him.

Jaymf7
07-05-2007, 03:35 PM
Are the above 2-3 posters taking the mickey, or what? You cannot seriously know that little about the business of basketball. I was talking about edorsement $. Patrick Yates

Like GMs, the elite NBA marketers look at more than just stats. It is too easy to point to Durant and claim he will get big $ solely because he put up crazy stats. Where was JJ's huge endorsement deal after breaking all ACC scoring records and leading a high profile Duke team? The big marketing deals depend on a number of factors, and huge college numbers are not a pre-requisite.

Here's the Forbes list for highest paid active NBA-ers who played in college:

Overall Rank Name Pay ($mil) Country Of Birth Residence
5 Shaquille O'Neal 31.9 United States United States
11 Grant Hill 25.9 United States United States
17 Vince Carter 20.2 United States United States
21 Allen Iverson 19.7 United States United States
41 Jason Kidd 15.9 United States United States
47 Rasheed Wallace 15.3 United States United States
49 Anfernee Hardaway 15.1 United States United States
50 Andre Miller 15.0 United States United States

http://www.forbes.com/lists/results.jhtml?passListId=2&passYear=2004&passListType=Person&resultsStart=1&resultsHowMany=25&resultsSortProperties=%2Bnumberfield1%2C%2Bstringf ield2&resultsSortCategoryName=rank&category1=Sport&searchParameter1=5Str%7C%7CPatCS%7C%7CBasketball&category2=Category&searchParameter2=unset

For some reason this list is missing a few people, like Duncan, who also get big endorsement money.

That pay does not break down salary and endorsement money, but that may be available if someone else can dig it up. I think all of the players above have endorsements, though. The names are not surprising.

It is also not surprising that many of these players -- like Jordan, the biggest marketer in NBA history -- played within a system on great college teams (often UNC, ugh). I don't think any of these players ever scored like Durant (or JJ), but they ended up making big, big money.

The simple fact is right now we cannot tell if Monroe or any other high school junior will have the skill, charisma and intangibles to make huge endorsement money. VERY, VERY FEW IMMENSELY TALENTED NBA players do. If we look back at the best endorsers, though, many of them did NOT put up extraordinary college numbers. That may be helpful for the big deal, but it is not required.

kydevil
07-05-2007, 05:46 PM
We can go back to disscussing how everything is perfect in the Duke Basketball universe, with a loaded juggernaught squad, no recruiting worries, and an infalliable staff.

Patrick Yates


Im glad someone finally said it, everything is great in the Duke Basketball universe.

Your optimism as usual is greaty appreciated! :rolleyes:

mapei
07-05-2007, 06:08 PM
Heh.

I kinda like it better when the board feels more like a bunch of sports fans sitting around talking, and less like a debating society with winners and losers.

Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily assume that, if GM wants to contend for a national championship, Duke is the beneficiary.