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View Full Version : Oddsmakers updated view of potential tourney champion?



SmartDevil
03-21-2011, 05:14 PM
I don't follow gambling--family taboo due to a grandfather being shot in head and losing an eye in a crooked out-of-town poker game when he objected to the other players playing a total of five queens among their hands in one round--but I'd be interested to watch how the Las Vegas odds on ultimate tourney champion change as the tournament progresses.

Anyone know of one or two respected sites (rather than hack speculation) to follow official odds?

J4Kop99
03-21-2011, 05:47 PM
I don't follow gambling--family taboo due to a grandfather being shot in head and losing an eye in a crooked out-of-town poker game when he objected to the other players playing a total of five queens among their hands in one round--but I'd be interested to watch how the Las Vegas odds on ultimate tourney champion change as the tournament progresses.

Anyone know of one or two respected sites (rather than hack speculation) to follow official odds?

Whether it is true or not, that may be the greatest opening sentence to a thread I have ever seen in the history of internet forums...

and to answer your question..

Here is a website with the odds for each game:
http://www.vegas.com/gaming/

or
http://www.nsawins.com/ncaa-tournament-odds.shtml

And here is a legit site with the odds for teams winning the final 4... (it was updated today)
http://www.betvega.com/odds-to-win-the-final-four/

Cameron
03-21-2011, 09:54 PM
I don't follow gambling--family taboo due to a grandfather being shot in head and losing an eye in a crooked out-of-town poker game when he objected to the other players playing a total of five queens among their hands in one round--but I'd be interested to watch how the Las Vegas odds on ultimate tourney champion change as the tournament progresses.

Oh my God. That is awful. But I have to ask. Your grandfather didn't end up playing the next round, did he? If he did, I certainly understand why games of chance have become family taboo.

I concur with J4Kop99. That is one of the best opening sentences to any paragraph I have ever read. (I still wish your grandfather had his eyeball, though. That part of the story obviously isn't as great.)

LBJFlight23
03-22-2011, 12:06 AM
oddsmaker.com has all three OSU, Us, and Kansas at the same odds of +250

jafarr1
03-22-2011, 01:04 AM
oddsmaker.com has all three OSU, Us, and Kansas at the same odds of +250

Wow. That's almost begging for bets on Kansas, given the opponents left for those three teams.

SmartDevil
03-22-2011, 01:50 AM
Thank you for the answer to my inquiry re: a source for tourney odds on the web.

Though I appreciate the "compliment" as to greatest opening sentence....alas, the account is a true recitation. And since there seems to be some interest, I'll briefly tell the rest of the narrative of events. Occurred in North Carolina, in 1932, the nation in the grips of the depression. My father's father was a traveling salesman based in Greensboro. On this particular multiple day road trip to a different part of NC, my own then barely 12 year old father accompanied him. After checking into their hotel, my grandfather asked the doorman to find him a card game and was given directions to a house in a rural setting about 15 minutes away. Finding the designated address on a lonely road with no other houses in sight but crops in every direction, my grandfather left my father in the car while he went in to play cards in the house. My dozing father awoke to a loud bang. No idea it was a gunshot. Next thing he saw was his father being dragged out of the house by two men, across the porch, and thrown down the short flight of steps into the yard.

My Dad jumped out of the car and dragged his father back to the car, lifting him into the back seat. At 12, he had no driving experience other than a few blocks at a time but he perched himself on the front of the drivers seat and drove down that desolate sole road in the pitch black night trying to remember the turns which would take him back to the area the hotel had been in. Finally, by good fortune alone, he came upon a modest hospital. My grandfather's life was saved by the primitive medical services available at that hour but he did lose his eye. No attempt was made to remove the bullet obviously.

My father, heroic in those circumstances, went on not many years later to become a surgeon (first 2 years at UNC, then got his MD from Jefferson in Philly)....the experiences of that night were one of the two events in his life that shaped my Dad's commitment to medicine and helping thousands of people over five decades of practice. Among other things, hundreds of nights he was called in to the urban hospital in gun violence crazy Newark, NJ where he practiced to take care of gunshot wounds which was one of the subspecialities he chose to devote himself to as a way of paying back the care that had saved his own father's life.

My father and grandfather are both gone now. But I have a mindful of memories of my Dad's devotion to medicine and to people.

And I also have my grandfather's artificial eye which I carry as a talisman since so much good eventually came out of that awful night!



(Oh,and since we are all immersed in the time of year where basketball is at its pinnacle, I'll add that my Dad died not a UNC fan but a Duke fan. Partly no doubt because I went to Duke. But also because he came to see over the years that Duke "did things the right way" and eventually came to see too many character issues in UNC athletics.)

JasonEvans
03-22-2011, 09:25 AM
Wow. That's almost begging for bets on Kansas, given the opponents left for those three teams.

Here's the thing about betting Kansas -- if you were only betting they would reach the national title game, it would be a great bet. I would give them about a 50-60% chance of making the national title game, which are pretty darn good odds considering they still have to win 3 games to get there. That is how weak I think their half of the bracket is at this point.

But, due to the strength of the other side of the bracket, I think they are going to face a darn good opponent once they reach that final. Despite the opponent being somewhat tired from its tough road, I think Kansas will be an underdog in that national championship game (should they get that far).

So, I am not as sold on the +250 money line as you might be. It is tempting, but I don't have a lot of faith in Kansas being able to pull off the upset against Duke or Ohio State (the two teams most expect to be there against them) in the championship game.

--Jason "aside from Marquette, there is no one on the E-W side of the bracket worse than the non-Kansas teams on the other side" Evans

JasonEvans
03-22-2011, 09:49 AM
According to VegasInsider.com


UPDATED ODDS TO WIN THE 2011 NCAA BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Kansas 3/1
Ohio State 3/1
Duke 7/2
North Carolina 12/1
Kentucky 15/1
Florida 18/1
Connecticut 18/1
San Diego State 18/1
Wisconsin 20/1
BYU 30/1
Florida State 35/1
Arizona 40/1
Butler 45/1
Marquette 45/1
Richmond 200/1
Virginia Commonwealth 400/1

--Jason "notice how the odds are dominated by teams on the E-W side?" Evans

Blue in the Face
03-22-2011, 11:35 AM
Wow, that's quite a tale, thanks for posting.

JasonEvans
03-22-2011, 02:39 PM
According to VegasInsider.com


UPDATED ODDS TO WIN THE 2011 NCAA BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
Kansas 3/1
Ohio State 3/1
Duke 7/2
North Carolina 12/1
Kentucky 15/1
Florida 18/1
Connecticut 18/1
San Diego State 18/1
Wisconsin 20/1
BYU 30/1
Florida State 35/1
Arizona 40/1
Butler 45/1
Marquette 45/1
Richmond 200/1
Virginia Commonwealth 400/1

--Jason "notice how the odds are dominated by teams on the E-W side?" Evans

What is the best bet in that list?

Florida at 18-1 is tempting but I think it is BYU at 30-1. Look at their path to the Final game. It really isn't all that tough. The winner of their Sw16 game has an excellent chance (IMO) of making the national title game.

-Jason "is Butler at 45-1 tempting too?" Evans

Chitowndevil
03-22-2011, 02:55 PM
What is the best bet in that list?


VCU at 400-1, easily. Richmond's next game is against Kansas. While VCU would likely have to play Kansas as well, do we really think Richmond is twice as likely to beat Kansas and the VCU/FSU winner as VCU is to beat FSU and then the KU/Richmond winner?

If I could short Richmond at 200-1 and buy VCU at 400-1 I'd be doing that all day long. Unfortunately, there are those pesky transactions costs (sigh).

As to your earlier comment about the E-W side being dominant, you can really see that in KU and OSU having identical (3-1) odds. Think of it this way, if we assume the national title game is a coin flip, to justify those odds we'd need to make both teams almost 4-1 favorites in EACH of their next 3 games. This is maybe ok for Kansas, but no way is it true for OSU, which faces Kentucky and could then see UNC and Duke back to back. So it has to be that, if somebody told you today that OSU would make the title game, they'd be a pretty substantial favorite, likely at least 3-2. I don't think they'd be nearly this heavy a favorite against Kansas, so it's a pretty strong statement about the weakness of the rest of the teams on the E-W side.