MBB S16: Duke v. Arizona Pre-game and In-Game Thread

[sagegrouse]

First a big positive: Is it really true that since 1986 (26 years) Duke has gone at least as far as the Sweet Sixteen 20 times -- all but 1993, '95, '96, '97, 2007, '08?

This year Duke draws 5th seeded Arizona, the PAC-10 regular season champ, who just beat Texas in a miracle finish. Zona, trailing by two at the 0:12 second mark with Texas having the ball, won by (a) a Texas five-second violation, (b) a brilliant inbounds pass, (c) a feed to star Derrick Williams, who was fouled and threw up a prayer -- which was answered. and (d) a made free throw for the one-point margin. Texas failed to get off a good shot in the scrum at the other end.

Questions for the game (my thoughts, at least):

1. How does Duke guard Derrick Williams, who is the only double-digit scorer on the Cats (19.2) and the tallest starter at 6-8? I guess we may see if the Plumlees can handle him. Zona is about the size of Michigan but seemed very athletic. Seven -footers Natyazhka and Jacobson play fewer than ten minutes and five minutes, respectively.

2. Will Kyrie merge better into the offense? I thought there was a lot of hesitation when both Nolan and Kyrie were on the floor.

3. Will Duke show the speed and energy needed to control the high-speed Cats? These kinds of teams have caused trouble in the past, and it may take better defense than against Michigan.

4. Will Duke continue to have 5-6 scorers on the court Thursday (four in double figures today)? It is a really positive development of the last two weeks.

sagegrouse

[AAA1980]

The one thign about Williams is allot of times hes unselfish almost to a fault,hes not the type of player who will impose his will on the game for 40 minutes..

[Krzyzewskiville]

I'm glad we play Arizona. I feel like we match up a lot better with them, rather Texas.

[Chris Randolph]

My biggest concern against AZ is their lack of size/speed. Lack of size because Williams is their tallest starter and the Plums can't guard him, he shoots it from 3 and drives it too well. Therefore, who does that leave the Plums to guard??? AZ will spread us out and drive it.

I would expect to see a lot of Kelly and Singler on Williams. The Plums might not get many minutes in this game based on matchups.

[CLT Devil]

I've checked the CBS site and couldn't find the time of the game. I am assuming it is Thursday, and the early game. Does anyone know for sure?

My wife bought tickets to go see Prince. I hate to put everything on hold this time of year, and feel like if I plan to do something on the weekend it will turn out to be when Duke plays. Not bad, considering the alternative is Duke not playing.

Any help is appreciated. We got through, look forward to playing another team we have a history with.

[Reilly]

First a big positive: Is it really true that since 1986 (26 years) Duke has gone at least as far as the Sweet Sixteen 20 times -- all but 1993, '95, '96, '97, 2007, '08? ...

What was achieved each year:

Nat'l champs: 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010
Nat'l champ game: 1986, 1990, 1994, 1999
Final Four: 1988, 1989, 2004
Elite 8: 1998
Sweet 16: 1987, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011 (thus far)
Final 32: 1993, 1997, 2008
Final 64: 1996, 2007
No tourney: 1995

Too blessed.

[sporthenry]

Why can't the Plums guard Williams? He seems like a much more refined Mason. He shoots it much better from the perimeter and he can actually finish on his dribble drives. But luckily,we don't need Mason to outscore him, we just need him to play solid defense on him. I don't think this game will be like the one today where the Plumlees couldn't guard anyone as Thompson held Williams in check until he got into foul trouble.

Singler will have his hands full with Hill and Duke could go to Singler at the 4 quite a bit but that puts KI and Nolan on the court at the same time after another week of practice. So that leaves about 15 fouls to put on Williams and it'd be nice to see KI draw a few fouls on Williams.

But my main concern is their 3 point shooting. They won't spread the floor as much as Michigan and hopefully, K uses his extra days to prepare a nice game plan.

[loran16]

2. Will Kyrie merge better into the offense? I thought there was a lot of hesitation when both Nolan and Kyrie were on the floor.


You ain't kidding. There was a TON of hesitation. Put it this way. In the 2nd half, Kyrie came in at 16:01 and played for around 3 minutes, scoring 0 and racking up 0 assists.

He came back into the game from 9:20 till the end. He scored 2 FTs in the first 30 seconds, racked up 1 assist....and then contributed 0 offense (and only like 2 shot attempts) until the basket with 32 seconds left.

In other words, he was INVISIBLE for 8 minutes on O. In essence we would have been better with Seth and Dre on the floor at once.

None of this says anything about his D. It certainly looked good. But against Arizona and if we advance UConn or SDSU, he would need to be productive on O to merit the play he got today. And he just looked tentative and unsure of how to not take the game out of Nolan's hands.

[Bob Green]

Lack of size because Williams is their tallest starter and the Plums can't guard him, he shoots it from 3 and drives it too well.

Match-ups work both ways. When dealing with a quality player such as Williams it is best to go right at him. We should dump the ball inside to Miles and/or Mason and force Williams to defend the Plumlees. It wouldn't hurt my feelings to see the Arizona All America pick up a couple of early fouls.

There are multiples strategies available to employ. I expect we will frequently double team Williams when he has the ball. Of course it will all start with ball pressure on Arizona's point guard who has to deal with Nolan Smith's incessant defensive presence.

[wilson]

My wife bought tickets to go see Prince. I hate to put everything on hold this time of year, and feel like if I plan to do something on the weekend it will turn out to be when Duke plays. One of the very, very few things I would ever even consider choosing over a Duke tournament game is a Prince concert. He was the best live performer I have ever seen, and even though I have seen a number of other exceptional concerts, there isn't even a close second.

[Chris Randolph]

Match-ups work both ways. When dealing with a quality player such as Williams it is best to go right at him. We should dump the ball inside to Miles and/or Mason and force Williams to defend the Plumlees. It wouldn't hurt my feelings to see the Arizona All America pick up a couple of early fouls.

There are multiples strategies available to employ. I expect we will frequently double team Williams when he has the ball. Of course it will all start with ball pressure on Arizona's point guard who has to deal with Nolan Smith's incessant defensive presence.

Bob, while I agree that the match-up could work both ways (and I'd love for us to get him in foul trouble), I can't see the Plums doing much against him offensively in the post. I mean we couldn't do anything against an even smaller, not as talented Michigan frontcourt. The Plums are way to inconsistent in the post and have a limited repetoire of moves. Nobody fears Duke when we throw it into the post

[KandG]

Why can't the Plums guard Williams? He seems like a much more refined Mason.


This is like saying Tim Duncan is a "much more refined" Casey Sanders.

[loldevilz]

My biggest concern against AZ is their lack of size/speed. Lack of size because Williams is their tallest starter and the Plums can't guard him, he shoots it from 3 and drives it too well. Therefore, who does that leave the Plums to guard??? AZ will spread us out and drive it.

I would expect to see a lot of Kelly and Singler on Williams. The Plums might not get many minutes in this game based on matchups.

I'm worried about the same exact thing. I much prefer when Duke goes big, but against Arizona we may see a lot of Dawkins. I think Mason and Singler will be out there on Williams. They are the only ones that have anywhere near his Athleticism.

Of course Coach K put Kelly on VPI's Allen so who knows?

[SuperTurkey]

One of the very, very few things I would ever even consider choosing over a Duke tournament game is a Prince concert. He was the best live performer I have ever seen, and even though I have seen a number of other exceptional concerts, there isn't even a close second.

And the dude can ball.

Game, blouses! (http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?title=true-hollywood-stories---prince&videoId=11927)

[sporthenry]

This is like saying Tim Duncan is a "much more refined" Casey Sanders.

Well I don't think the gap is that far. And again, Mason isn't expected to score, he just has to play defense on him and Williams was really bothered by Thompson's length today. If Mason can stay in front but contest his outside shot, Williams is ripe for some offensive fouls when he barrels to the basket.

[superdave]

The big guys will have to communicate a lot and help each other out on Williams. Double downs and help side D will be necessary to slow him. I think Kyle could be the designated helper in many situations. We saw him play that role vs. Jordan Williams. I'm most concerned with Williams abilities on the perimeter because it could pull all our defenders out of the paint. We'll need the guards to help crash the boards and cover the backside on D.

Most importantly, Duke needs to control the pace and maintain their focus, energy and intensity for 40 minutes. All tough games the rest of the way.

[superdave]

Well I don't think the gap is that far. And again, Mason isn't expected to score, he just has to play defense on him and Williams was really bothered by Thompson's length today. If Mason can stay in front but contest his outside shot, Williams is ripe for some offensive fouls when he barrels to the basket.

I expect Mason to score. We cant win playing 4 on 5 or 3 on 5. He and Miles have gotten some nice looks inside the last 4-5 games. They've also really gone after offensive rebounds with relish too.

We do need to use out mass on the inside though. Punish anyone who comes into the paint. We've got the bodies to do so, and it would be nice to make Arizona a perimeter team.

[sporthenry]

I expect Mason to score. We cant win playing 4 on 5 or 3 on 5. He and Miles have gotten some nice looks inside the last 4-5 games. They've also really gone after offensive rebounds with relish too.

We do need to use out mass on the inside though. Punish anyone who comes into the paint. We've got the bodies to do so, and it would be nice to make Arizona a perimeter team.

Well he will probably get some easy buckets but I'm saying we won't be dropping it down to the Plumlees in the post 20 times a game. I expect to see some oops and easy back door cuts and baskets but I doubt he is posting up on Williams too much unless we are trying to draw some fouls.

[simmias]

Vegas opened with Duke as a 10 point favorite.

[Im4howdy]

I thought Prince. got knocked out in the 2nd round by Kentucky....

[dbd4ever]

Will we be the early or late game on Thursday?

[1 24 90]

Will we be the early or late game on Thursday?

I don't think it has been announced yet but I would be shocked if Duke/Zona wasn't the 2nd game.

[dukeblue225]

I just googled it and the game was listed as a 3 PM EST tip-off.

[pfrduke]

I just googled it and the game was listed as a 3 PM EST tip-off.

Then Google is wrong. There's no way they're starting play in Anaheim at noon.

[dbd4ever]

I don't think it has been announced yet but I would be shocked if Duke/Zona wasn't the 2nd game.

I guess the question is whether we will have more time to prep for Thursday or more time for the next game if we advance. Is there an advantage either way or will it not matter either way?

[gumbomoop]

Vegas opened with Duke as a 10 point favorite.

Someone will have to explain this to me, especially as tOSU has opened as a mere 4-pt fav over UK. Help.

[BigZ]

I am debating if I should try and get tickets. I just moved to San Diego so I'm about an hour away. I don't have the best financial situation but could afford tickets. I guess though it is only worth going if I get real good seats and can talk my friend into going.

[tbyers11]

Approximate time slots and networks for all remaining games are here (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2011-03-08/men%E2%80%99s-march-madness-tv-schedule). Regional time slots below.


REGIONALS Date Time (ET) Game TV MMOD Radio
March 24
7 p.m. Game 1 CBS Watch Listen
9:30 p.m. Game 2 CBS Watch Listen
7:15 p.m. Game 1 TBS Watch Listen
9:55 p.m. Game 2 TBS Watch Listen
March 25
7 p.m. Game 1 CBS Watch Listen
9:30 p.m. Game 2 CBS Watch Listen
7:15 p.m. Game 1 TBS Watch Listen
9:55 p.m. Game 2 TBS Watch Listen
March 26
4:20 p.m. Game 1 CBS Watch Listen
6:55 p.m. Game 2 CBS Watch Listen
March 27
2:10 p.m. Game 1 CBS Watch Listen
4:55 p.m. Game 2 CBS Watch Listen

I bet we are the 9:30 game on CBS Thursday. If we win we play at either 4:20 or 6:55 on Saturday. Probably later game there too, especially if a Duke-UConn match up were to materialize

[tbyers11]

Its official we play 9:45 EDT on Thursday

link (http://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/49684197748637696)

[MaxAMillion]

You ain't kidding. There was a TON of hesitation. Put it this way. In the 2nd half, Kyrie came in at 16:01 and played for around 3 minutes, scoring 0 and racking up 0 assists.

He came back into the game from 9:20 till the end. He scored 2 FTs in the first 30 seconds, racked up 1 assist....and then contributed 0 offense (and only like 2 shot attempts) until the basket with 32 seconds left.

In other words, he was INVISIBLE for 8 minutes on O. In essence we would have been better with Seth and Dre on the floor at once.

None of this says anything about his D. It certainly looked good. But against Arizona and if we advance UConn or SDSU, he would need to be productive on O to merit the play he got today. And he just looked tentative and unsure of how to not take the game out of Nolan's hands.

This is good analysis and points out one of my big concerns. Trying to integrate Irving is going to be difficult. He is not the same player he was earlier in the year obviously. Trying to adjust on the fly while playing tournament games is very difficult. There is part of me that was hoping Irving was not coming back precisely because of the inconsistency I new the team (and Irving) would have while Kyrie tries to get acclimated. Coach K has a much tougher task in front of him than a lot of people think.

[NashvilleDevil]

Its official we play 9:45 EDT on Thursday

link (http://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/49684197748637696)

Rafferty announcing the games. Very happy about that. Maybe one of the Plumbros can do this. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqSwZgpOad8&feature=related)

[RoyalBlue08]

I wonder if K would consider putting Kyle on Williams. I guess maybe we would have to go small for the matchups to work, but I like Kyle defense significantly more than Mason's.

Also wonder if we are going to go with Kyrie in the starting lineup. If it were up to me, I would put him in there. He has shown he is fit to play, and there is no doubting his talent. I agree that the chemistry between him and Nolan isn't quite there yet, but I think we may have to learn this on the fly.

Wish we could play tomorrow. This time of year is so exciting. Go Duke!

[Chris Randolph]

First of all, glad we play the later of the two games

Second, not sure if I put Kyrie in the starting lineup. We've been winning with this starting 5, might as well keep it. Plus, Seth is coming off an 0 for shooting game, might hurt his confidence if he go without him in the starting 5. All this integrating Kyrie talk is understandable but we might be reading too much into it. We have scored 87 and 73 (in which we shot poorly from 3 and free throw line). We will be fine.

Defense and Rebounding!!!!

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Hey everyone!

I don't have much insight on this game yet. Im still trying to enjoy our escape today and need some time to settle down and get away from basketball for a few days before getting going again. The addition I have now to this thread is more personal than anything. I am a University of Arizona Alum (2006) and my fellow alums and friends are berating me right now because of my Duke allegience. Who I would cheer for never came into question for a second. Duke will forever be my favorite sports team by a wide margin and I hope to be a season ticket holder by my 35th BDay :D

Anyway, I invite anyone on here to friend me on facebook and defend me against all the haters out there that won't stop until this tournament is over. They just don't understand! I'd appreciate anyone!

[Kedsy]

Williams is Arizona's only double-digit scorer. What if we give him his 25 points (he averages 19 and hasn't topped 26 in his last 18 games) and just make sure none of the others have above-average games? That would put the pressure on them to stop us, and let our personnel dictate the game rather than theirs. So, to me, the real question is not who can guard Williams, but if we go with our most common "big" lineup will our second big have trouble guarding their 6'7" "power forward"?

[dcdrumsinc]

This is good analysis and points out one of my big concerns. Trying to integrate Irving is going to be difficult. He is not the same player he was earlier in the year obviously. Trying to adjust on the fly while playing tournament games is very difficult. There is part of me that was hoping Irving was not coming back precisely because of the inconsistency I new the team (and Irving) would have while Kyrie tries to get acclimated. Coach K has a much tougher task in front of him than a lot of people think.

Without Kyrie, we lose the game against Michigan. PERIOD. He was only 1/4, but making 9/10 free throws, he was REALLY efficient. Our most efficient player of the game. He was our only hope in getting into the lane against Michigan. Without Kyrie's 9/10 free throws, we lose the game. It's a task Coach K has to deal with. We should all be thankfull he played against Michigan.


anyways, arizona is quick. They play really tough and are well coached. we are vulnerable. arizona is not a team to play stall ball against. they can score

[loldevilz]

Williams is Arizona's only double-digit scorer. What if we give him his 25 points (he averages 19 and hasn't topped 26 in his last 18 games) and just make sure none of the others have above-average games? That would put the pressure on them to stop us, and let our personnel dictate the game rather than theirs. So, to me, the real question is not who can guard Williams, but if we go with our most common "big" lineup will our second big have trouble guarding their 6'7" "power forward"?

I don't believe that Arizona shoots the three quite as well as Michigan, so we might not have as big a problem guarding them with a big lineup. Michigan played 4 guards so we had to go small most of the game. Arizona plays 3 guards so I think we can go big.
If we don't chase them around too much, pack the paint and rebound well, I think we can use our size to an advantage.

At least I hope so.

The question is how can they deal with Duke's size.

[sporthenry]

I don't believe that Arizona shoots the three quite as well as Michigan, so we might not have as big a problem guarding them with a big lineup. Michigan played 4 guards so we had to go small most of the game. Arizona plays 3 guards so I think we can go big.
If we don't chase them around too much, pack the paint and rebound well, I think we can use our size to an advantage.

At least I hope so.

The question is how can they deal with Duke's size.

Arizona is 9th in 3P%. I assume most of it is from kick outs to wide open players but I'm very afraid of their 3 pointers. It appears everyone on their team can hit the open 3. They also defend the 3 very well. So I think UA could probably spread us out similar to Michigan except we should be able to have Mason more centralized than against Michigan. They don't give up a lot of offensive boards, the only real flaw seems to be the other team shoots well inside the arc and they don't block many shots.

In their bad losses, Williams had decent shooting games but didn't get a lot of shots. Their 3P% was bad in their blow out losses as well. This game will be decided by Dukes ability to defend (which wasn't very good today), but I expect K to have something special planned. But it will also come down to Arizonas ability to hit shots. I'm a bit more nervous after breaking it down with kenpom.

And most of Arizona's forwards are in the 6'6 to 6'7 range, so I think we will see the KI, Nolan, Dre/Curry, Kyle line up in an effort to push the tempo.

[NYC Duke Fan]

According to the newspaper Duke is a 9 point favorite over Arizona. In my opinion that is absolutely ridiculous !!!

We have had trouble with athletic physical teams this year and we have to travel cross country in a different time zone while Arizona stays virtually at home.

I am not saying that we shouldn't be a favorite but 9 points...NO WAY !!!

[Indoor66]

According to the newspaper Duke is a 9 point favorite over Arizona. In my opinion that is absolutely ridiculous !!!

We have had trouble with athletic physical teams this year and we have to travel cross country in a different time zone while Arizona stays virtually at home.

I am not saying that we shouldn't be a favorite but 9 points...NO WAY !!!

Then get your bet down - and take the points!

[COYS]

They don't give up a lot of offensive boards, the only real flaw seems to be the other team shoots well inside the arc and they don't block many shots.



I think they have more weaknesses than this. For one thing, their 2 point defense is REALLY bad for a top team: 281st to be exact. Block percentage is 289. Steal percentage is 298. And they are 252nd at forcing turnovers on defense. Their defense does not generate a lot of extra possessions for the offense. Also, they are 155th in offensive rebounding, which isn't bad, but is nothing too scary, either. This is probably a big reason why they are only 18th in offensive efficiency despite having an array of sharpshooters and the extremely efficient Williams.

They have also benefited mightily from really good free throw defense. I don't know what their strategy is, but teams are shooting a paltry 67% at the line. Assuming Kyle can correct his free throw issues from the other day, we have a great chance at besting this mark by a decent margin. The lack of shot blockers makes drives by Nolan, Kyrie, and Kyle that much more dangerous. If we take away their three point shooting (or at least make it significantly less effective) and clean up on the boards, they will have a very difficult time generating offense. Williams will probably get his (although I expect Coach K to devise some interesting schemes for guarding him), but if we force contested 3's, rebound, take care of the ball, and attack the rim, they will be the ones scratching their heads, trying to figure out how in the world to stop us.

Stats from kenpom (http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Arizona).

[sagegrouse]

According to the newspaper Duke is a 9 point favorite over Arizona. In my opinion that is absolutely ridiculous !!!

We have had trouble with athletic physical teams this year and we have to travel cross country in a different time zone while Arizona stays virtually at home.

I am not saying that we shouldn't be a favorite but 9 points...NO WAY !!!

I am with you that the spread is surprising, especially given that Duke beat eight-seeded Michigan by only two points. But then, Duke just a week ago beat two-seeded UNC by 17 points.

I don't think the travel and the time zones make any difference, especially given the charter flight. And WRT the late start, Duke usually has the 9PM slot on weekday games on ESPN.

OTOH I would rather play Friday, however, because I think the team needs practice time with Kyrie on the court. Tuesday is the only full practice day for Duke, although its shoot-arounds the day before the game are far more energetic than anyone else's.

sagegrouse

[Billy Dat]

I always like our chances when a team plays our style. Michigan forced us to play their slow down game, but Arizona plays a faster pace and that will help us. Plus, I think we'll get some tips from Johnny D who went 0-2 against Arizona but who knows Miller-coached Zona teams well and should provide some good scouting.

I, personally, think of Mason and Miles as athletic bigs, if athleticism is mostly defined as speed and hops. They can run and jump with any other 6'10"ers out there. If Williams is 6'8", then I can't see anyone other than Kyle getting that assignment. That will be a war. Lately, though, K has also been letting Dre take on some of these 6'8" small forwards such as the Black Pidgeon (Barnes). He is very effective at staying with them on the perimeter. I'd rather not see us try and play small. We were really working Michigan on the boards in the first half and, once they started chipping away at that lead, I thought we could have gone a little bigger to try and penetrate that zone and get some alley-oops or dishes to the bigs.

As for Kyrie, I am squarely in the "we're better with him back" camp. This week, the staff needs to drill into him that we need him to be aggressive on offense. He needs to look for his spots, especially to penetrate, as that opens everything up for us. When we passed it to Nolan at the end for those free throws, I wanted us to look for Kyrie because I was sure he'd go 2-2. I am not saying he would have, but that's what my gut was telling me at that moment.

[Duke76]

who has the better 3 point percentage...i really think Michigan's offense creates a
more difficulty in guarding the 3 point shot. Their offense was really outside the box and we should be able to defend somewhat better against Arizona's 3 point shooters, imo

[rhcpflea99]

who has the better 3 point percentage...i really think Michigan's offense creates a
more difficulty in guarding the 3 point shot. Their offense was really outside the box and we should be able to defend somewhat better against Arizona's 3 point shooters, imo

I agree, Michigan also was very patient with there shots. I don't think Arizona will be that patient with there shots. I feel Duke will force Arizona into taking bad shots.

[rhcpflea99]

I am debating if I should try and get tickets. I just moved to San Diego so I'm about an hour away. I don't have the best financial situation but could afford tickets. I guess though it is only worth going if I get real good seats and can talk my friend into going.

I'm going to wait until after the second game and try to score extra ticket from scalpers. Hopefully I'll grab something cheap. Make my way in and wait for the losing team fans to exit and try to grab ticket stub from someone exiting.

[MChambers]

Arizona has a lot of three point shooters. Pomeroy shows that everyone on the roster shoots at least 30%, and all but 2 are above 33%.

Williams is an unwordly 58%, but doesn't take many. He does draw fouls like crazy. I'd expect Kyle to be on him as much as possible.

Question for me is whether Arizona can penetrate well, especially as to the bigs that shoot 3s. Can our bigs stay with them, and stay out of foul trouble?

[NYC Duke Fan]

Then get your bet down - and take the points!

I could never bet against Duke no matter the spread.

I was only making a comment and did not expect this kind of response. Virtually everyone I have spoken to agrees that 9 points is exceedingly high.

[InSpades]

I *really* hope we don't go small to match their smallness like we did against Michigan. I don't think it really helped out defense that much (particularly, we went small more in the 2nd half and Michigan shot 58% for the half).

On the other hand I think it adversely effected our offense. The bigs were getting offensive rebounds and other high percentage shots due to their mismatches inside.

What's funny is I love the smaller lineups (I was a huge proponent of Kyle at the 4 before Kyrie went down) but I've been really impressed with the play of the bigs of late. Kyle should still spend some time at the 4 but Miles+Mason need to play more than 33 minutes. Especially when they are taking advantage of mismatches and being effective.

[78Devil]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ......."

It would make a nice change from our concerns about our matchup against them. Don't get me wrong, these concerns are all legitimate. Its just that after yesterday, I need a little confidence building!

[ns7]

Someone will have to explain this to me, especially as tOSU has opened as a mere 4-pt fav over UK. Help.

Kentucky is quite good this year. They were the best team in the SEC this year according to efficiency margin. They're also young, so they've gotten better as the year has progressed. Finally, I'd venture that they're more talented than tOSU but just aren't as experienced. These teams are dangerous, I was extremely happy we avoided Kentucky in our bracket.


According to the newspaper Duke is a 9 point favorite over Arizona. In my opinion that is absolutely ridiculous !!!

We have had trouble with athletic physical teams this year and we have to travel cross country in a different time zone while Arizona stays virtually at home.

I am not saying that we shouldn't be a favorite but 9 points...NO WAY !!!

Why not? Michigan is objectively a better team than Arizona. If we played Michigan again, would you be surprised by a 9 point spread?

Arizona is quite bad on defense--worse than Notre Dame--and you saw what FSU did to Notre Dame. The key will be slowing down Derrick Williams while shutting down their perimeter shooters: Parrom, Horne, and Mayes.

[Kedsy]

Williams is an unwordly 58%, but doesn't take many. He does draw fouls like crazy. I'd expect Kyle to be on him as much as possible.

The thing is, if Kyle is on Williams than both our bigs are guarding 6'6"/6'7" guys who presumably are much quicker than our bigs. Either that or we'd have to play small for most of the game and have one big guarding a smaller, quicker player and Andre guarding a bigger, stronger player.

I have not seen Arizona play very much to know how quick or how strong their 3/4s are, but from a defensive standpoint it would seem to make more sense (at least to me) to have Mason or Miles or Ryan try to stop Williams, knowing he's going to get his, putting stress on our defense at only one position rather than at three positions like it would be if Kyle primarily defends our opponent's center.

Just my opinion, of course.

[bluepenguin]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

[DallasDevil]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ......."

It would make a nice change from our concerns about our matchup against them. Don't get me wrong, these concerns are all legitimate. Its just that after yesterday, I need a little confidence building!

1. Duke will have the best player on the floor, and he along with Curry, Dawkins, and Irving give Duke the clear edge in the backcourt.

2. Coach K

3. Duke will have a size advantage, with 4 rotation players 6'8" or taller, compared to just one (albeit very good) player at 6'8" for Arizona.

[-jk]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

They venues are contracted way early, with the days set in stone. The 1 seed in the West dictated Thu/Sat. The pod in Charlotte dictated Fri/Sun. No conspiracy - except Duke always gets the easiest road, and owns the refs, and ...

-jk

[SCMatt33]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

It's generally coincidence. With the pod system it's something that can't be controlled. Duke was always going to go to Charlotte, which was determined as Fri/Sun a long time ago so they could sell tickets. It then was basically a 50/50 shot where we ended up. The two Friday regional sites are Newark and San Antonio which went to OSU and Kansas before Duke was even placed in the bracket. Unless Duke was ahead of OSU on the S-curve, or ahead of Kansas, but behind two other teams (OSU and Pitt most likely) that would have gone to Newark and New Orleans first, we had no chance of a Friday regional. The only thing that surprised me about that was that 12 of 16 pods went Thurs/Thurs or Fri/Fri. That's a pretty good number.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

1. Duke will have the best player on the floor, and he along with Curry, Dawkins, and Irving give Duke the clear edge in the backcourt.


As much as I love Nolan, I must disagree. Williams is the better player. If we can just slow him down (no way to stop him), we'll win. We have a superior backcourt and much better support for our star.

[sagegrouse]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ......."

It would make a nice change from our concerns about our matchup against them. Don't get me wrong, these concerns are all legitimate. Its just that after yesterday, I need a little confidence building!

1. The Cats aren't concerned about the Duke matchups; they can't believe they won yesterday. They'll start worrying Wednesday when they come down from the cloud they are riding.

2. Arizona could not handle Texas guard J'Covan Brown, who torched the Cats for 23 points in 25 minutes. Nolan and Kyrie are both better than J'Covan.

3. Rankings: #5 seed vs. #1 seed; #17 AP vs. #3; #31 KenPom vs. #2.

4. They are facing a much larger team. The Cats start a front line of 6-8, 6-7, and 6-6. Duke's front court is 6-10, 6-10, 6-8.

5. Transitive principle: the Cats lost in the PAC-10 finals to UDub, who lost in the NCAAs to UNC, who lost in the ACC finals by 17 to Duke.

6. Fiction of a home crowd. The San Diego State fans bought up the tickets for Anaheim.

sagegrouse

[superdave]

The thing is, if Kyle is on Williams than both our bigs are guarding 6'6"/6'7" guys who presumably are much quicker than our bigs. Either that or we'd have to play small for most of the game and have one big guarding a smaller, quicker player and Andre guarding a bigger, stronger player.

I have not seen Arizona play very much to know how quick or how strong their 3/4s are, but from a defensive standpoint it would seem to make more sense (at least to me) to have Mason or Miles or Ryan try to stop Williams, knowing he's going to get his, putting stress on our defense at only one position rather than at three positions like it would be if Kyle primarily defends our opponent's center.

Just my opinion, of course.

Did anyone who saw the whole Texas-Arizona game have any take-aways about how to guard Williams? I think Mason's length could really cause him trouble. But Mason could get lost on screens and switches on the perimeter. I agree with Kedsy that we'll need Kyle to guard their 3, but Kyle or the other big should be ready to double down in the paint when Williams gets the ball in the post.

Of course pressuring their ball handlers might be the best way to slow Williams down, and I love our ability to do that.

[superdave]

As much as I love Nolan, I must disagree. Williams is the better player. If we can just slow him down (no way to stop him), we'll win. We have a superior backcourt and much better support for our star.

No, Nolan is the better player. And clearly so. Nolan is likely to be a consensus 1st team All-American pick. Williams may sneak onto some 1st team selections, but that is unlikely. Williams has a better chance of being an NBA all-star. But Nolan is better now and has had a better season to date.

We're the #1 seed - they are not!

[pfrduke]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ......."

It would make a nice change from our concerns about our matchup against them. Don't get me wrong, these concerns are all legitimate. Its just that after yesterday, I need a little confidence building!

1. Stopping penetration is not their strong suit, and we have two of the best penetrators in the business.

2. Duke makes 2's. Lost in all the discussion about our 3-point shooting is that we're a very good shooting team from inside the arc. Our percentage on the season is 52.5%, good for 17th in the country, and in our most recent 5 games, we've gone 20-29, 23-41, 20-38, 20-35, and 28-48 - that's 58.1% in postseason play. Arizona's biggest weakness is interior defense; they allow opponents to shoot 50.6% from 2 (281st in the country) and block only 6.9% of opponents' shots (289th in the country) (Duke, for its part, is also good at avoiding blocks - only 7.4%, good for 42nd in the country). The inside will be open to Duke's players, and we've shown recently (in all the ACC Tournament games) that we can be very effective with an interior-focused mindset.

3. Getting and making 3s against Duke is very difficult. In addition to forcing turnovers, one thing our pressure defense is designed to do is to keep opponents off the three-point line. Duke has the 32nd best 3-point fg% defense in the country, is one of the 5 best teams in the country at forcing opponents to take limited 3-point attempts, and is one of the 25 best teams in the country at limiting the percentage of points that opponents get from 3s. Arizona is a strong 3-point shooting team, but Duke's D is going to be geared toward taking away that strength.

[gumbomoop]

Kentucky is quite good this year. They were the best team in the SEC this year according to efficiency margin. They're also young, so they've gotten better as the year has progressed. Finally, I'd venture that they're more talented than tOSU but just aren't as experienced.

Michigan is objectively a better team than Arizona.

Arizona is quite bad on defense--worse than Notre Dame--and you saw what FSU did to Notre Dame. The key will be slowing down Derrick Williams while shutting down their perimeter shooters: Parrom, Horne, and Mayes.

Thanks for the response to my confusion and to the views of NYC Duke Fan [who may or may not respond separately]. Let me push this a bit further.

I just looked at Vegas odds, and see, among others, the following: Duke by 10 over Arizona, tOSU by 4 over UK, UNC by 6 over Marquette.

I remain puzzled by the fact that Duke is the most favored team of the 8 S16 games. Pleased, but still a bit puzzled. UNC by 6 over M seems logical, though M was an 11 seed, Arizona a 5 seed, so that means the Vegas oddsmakers think either (a) Marquette is better than Arizona, and/or (b) Duke is better than UNC. Ok, either is possible, as the Vegas folks could simply say, "Arizona is overseeded, Marquetter underseeded, and Duke and UNC correctly seeded."

But then comparing Duke's 10-spread to tOSU's "mere" 4-spread v. UK, that seems to mean the Vegas oddsmakers think either (a) UK is much better than Arizona, and/or (b) Duke is marginally better than tOSU. Again, such thoughts [both a and b] are pleasing, but (b) is especially puzzling. The Vegas guys seem high on Duke.

I can't quite agree with your very bold statement that "Michigan is objectively a better team than Arizona," but if yesterday was a "typical" Michigan effort, I'm persuadable. Given that it was generally conceded that Texas was [maybe way] underseeded, that Arizona beat them does not suggest a mediocre Arizona team.

The bottom line for me is that I am [pleasantly, but skeptically] surprised that Duke is, along with KU [over Richmond] easily the most solid favorite going into the S 16 round.

[sagegrouse]

Did anyone who saw the whole Texas-Arizona game have any take-aways about how to guard Williams? I think Mason's length could really cause him trouble. But Mason could get lost on screens and switches on the perimeter. I agree with Kedsy that we'll need Kyle to guard their 3, but Kyle or the other big should be ready to double down in the paint when Williams gets the ball in the post.

Of course pressuring their ball handlers might be the best way to slow Williams down, and I love our ability to do that.

In the Texas-Arizona game, Derrick Williams did a good job of guarding himself, shooting 4-14, but going to the line 15 times (making 9). Texas is a big strong team and maybe Duke's front court can bother Williams just as much.

Solomon Hill had a very good game with 16 points on 7-12, about twice his season average.

I assume that Kyle takes Hill and that Miles starts with Williams. The third front-court player, 6-7 Jesse Perry, is a svelte 215 pounds. I expect Miles and Ryan will take turns on him.

sagegrouse

[Reilly]

...Lost in all the discussion about our 3-point shooting is that we're a very good shooting team from inside the arc. Our percentage on the season is 52.5%, good for 17th in the country, and in our most recent 5 games, we've gone 20-29, 23-41, 20-38, 20-35, and 28-48 - that's 58.1% in postseason play. ....

One of the joys of following K and the National Team in the World Championships in Turkey was the prevalence of box scores that broke down 3 pointers and 2 pointers separately. Mind-boggling to me that our US boxscores all show overall shooting percentage, and 3 pt and FT shooting percentages individually, but not 2 pointers.

[Oriole Way]

You ain't kidding. There was a TON of hesitation. Put it this way. In the 2nd half, Kyrie came in at 16:01 and played for around 3 minutes, scoring 0 and racking up 0 assists.

He came back into the game from 9:20 till the end. He scored 2 FTs in the first 30 seconds, racked up 1 assist....and then contributed 0 offense (and only like 2 shot attempts) until the basket with 32 seconds left.

In other words, he was INVISIBLE for 8 minutes on O. In essence we would have been better with Seth and Dre on the floor at once.

None of this says anything about his D. It certainly looked good. But against Arizona and if we advance UConn or SDSU, he would need to be productive on O to merit the play he got today. And he just looked tentative and unsure of how to not take the game out of Nolan's hands.

Kyrie is simply deferring way too much to Nolan. Not sure if this is a coaching decision, or if it's Kyrie's preference to defer. Buy Kyrie needs to control and initiate the offense a lot more going forward, especially late in games.

[moonpie23]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ......."

coaching staff, kyle plums curry, and nolan dawkins irving

[Bluedog]

I remain puzzled by the fact that Duke is the most favored team of the 8 S16 games. Pleased, but still a bit puzzled.

Kansas is an 11-point favorite over Richmond. I see Duke as a 9-point favorite right now. It's also not really what Vegas thinks is going to happen; it's simply what people are betting. I guess there are a lot of people that like Duke out there...

[MChambers]

Kansas is an 11-point favorite over Richmond. I see Duke as a 9-point favorite right now. It's also not really what Vegas thinks is going to happen; it's simply what people are betting. I guess there are a lot of people that like Duke out there...

The oddsmakers are simply concerned with having an equal amount of money on both sides of every game, so that they have essentially no risk of loss. I guess you could say that the wisdom of crowds supports Duke.

[MChambers]

The thing is, if Kyle is on Williams than both our bigs are guarding 6'6"/6'7" guys who presumably are much quicker than our bigs. Either that or we'd have to play small for most of the game and have one big guarding a smaller, quicker player and Andre guarding a bigger, stronger player.

I have not seen Arizona play very much to know how quick or how strong their 3/4s are, but from a defensive standpoint it would seem to make more sense (at least to me) to have Mason or Miles or Ryan try to stop Williams, knowing he's going to get his, putting stress on our defense at only one position rather than at three positions like it would be if Kyle primarily defends our opponent's center.

Just my opinion, of course.
You raise good points, as always.

I think the decision on this issue will depend a lot on how Williams gets his points.

Because he is such a good outside shooter, I worry that having a Plumlee on him will not be effective. I also worry that he is very effective at drawing fouls, and that Miles and Mason each will have two fouls before the opening tip. If Williams primarily scores from 15 feet and in, I agree that having Mason on him might well make sense.

On the other hand, if he is an all over the court scorer, as I suspect from reading the statistics, I think Kyle would be a better matchup. I also think that Coach K likes to use his best defender on the other team's top scorer, when he can. See Robinson, Glenn.

Your point about whether this exposes the Plumlees to bad matchups with the other front-line players for Arizona is interesting. My impression is that those other players are not as mobile as Williams and therefore are less likely to get the Plumlees in foul trouble.

If anyone here has watched Arizona and has some insights on how Williams gets his points, please chime in.

[Billy Dat]

Kansas is an 11-point favorite over Richmond. I see Duke as a 9-point favorite right now. It's also not really what Vegas thinks is going to happen; it's simply what people are betting. I guess there are a lot of people that like Duke out there...

Right, let's remember that the point spread only exists to try and get equal money on both sides of the bet so that the house has no risk and makes its living on the vig. ESPN has a betting expert, Chad Millman, and reading his pieces has taught me a lot. While I haven't seen him wiegh in on this spread, based on what I've heard him say in the past, I bet the following things are taking place:
-Duke has huge brand equity/identity with casual sports fans. The NCAA first and second rounds draw boatloads of people to the Vegas sportsbooks. I bet a lot of these unsophisticated wagerers are betting on Duke despite the large spread.
-Kyrie's return is being over-valued by those same "squares" as opposed to the more seasoned professional gamblers (aka "sharps"). As a result, the books anticipated taking a lot of action on Duke and set a large spread to cover themselves. If money keep pouring in for Duke, expect it to go as high as the market will bear.

[Kedsy]

The Vegas guys seem high on Duke.

You have to remember that bookies are not trying to predict the game so much as to predict the betting. They want half the people to take either side of the bet because that's how they make the most money. So, actually, it's the public that seems high on Duke, rather than the "Vegas guys."


I can't quite agree with your very bold statement that "Michigan is objectively a better team than Arizona," but if yesterday was a "typical" Michigan effort, I'm persuadable.

I don't want to put words on the OP's mouth, but I think by "objectively" he meant Pomeroy thinks Michigan (#23 Pomeroy) is a better team than Arizona (#31 Pomeroy). FWIW, both Sagarin and the RPI think Arizona is better than Michigan (although Sagarin's "predictor" has Arizona and Michigan virtually equivalent).

[NYBri]

Kyrie is simply deferring way too much to Nolan. Not sure if this is a coaching decision, or if it's Kyrie's preference to defer. Buy Kyrie needs to control and initiate the offense a lot more going forward, especially late in games.

I understand the deference and hesitation on Kyrie's part. ndotsmitty has been THE man for 26 games and has delivered the team to where they are...and KI doesn't want to blow it now. I get his feelings totally, but if he's gonna play, he's gotta get over that and know that Nolan will love him for helping win another ring.

I'm looking forward to the post season "Will/should Kyrie turn pro or stay put?" thread.

[gw67]

Did anyone who saw the whole Texas-Arizona game have any take-aways about how to guard Williams? I think Mason's length could really cause him trouble. But Mason could get lost on screens and switches on the perimeter. I agree with Kedsy that we'll need Kyle to guard their 3, but Kyle or the other big should be ready to double down in the paint when Williams gets the ball in the post.

Of course pressuring their ball handlers might be the best way to slow Williams down, and I love our ability to do that.

I understand why the pros love Williams. He is tall, can run, jump and he is very skilled - shoot, pass, catch and handle the ball. His shooting stats for a player who plays away from the basket are impressive (60% from the field and 58% from behind the three-point line). A weakness may be that he is relatively unselfish (averages less than 10 shots per game) although that number is affected by the large number of foul shots he has taken. I would love to see Singler assigned to Williams on defense but I doubt that it will happen in order to protect Singler. I would emphasize help defense when he gets the ball and try to keep him from driving to the hoop and getting fouled. I suspect that playing him straight up with one of the Duke big men might be a recipe for disaster.

gw67

[simmias]

You have to remember that bookies are not trying to predict the game so much as to predict the betting. They want half the people to take either side of the bet because that's how they make the most money. So, actually, it's the public that seems high on Duke, rather than the "Vegas guys."
81% of the public is on UA right now, and the line isn't moving. Yes, Vegas makes money on the vig. But they also make significantly more money by getting 90% of the bets to jump on the wrong side.

[ns7]

Thanks for the response to my confusion and to the views of NYC Duke Fan [who may or may not respond separately]. Let me push this a bit further.

I just looked at Vegas odds, and see, among others, the following: Duke by 10 over Arizona, tOSU by 4 over UK, UNC by 6 over Marquette.

I remain puzzled by the fact that Duke is the most favored team of the 8 S16 games. Pleased, but still a bit puzzled. UNC by 6 over M seems logical, though M was an 11 seed, Arizona a 5 seed, so that means the Vegas oddsmakers think either (a) Marquette is better than Arizona, and/or (b) Duke is better than UNC. Ok, either is possible, as the Vegas folks could simply say, "Arizona is overseeded, Marquetter underseeded, and Duke and UNC correctly seeded."

But then comparing Duke's 10-spread to tOSU's "mere" 4-spread v. UK, that seems to mean the Vegas oddsmakers think either (a) UK is much better than Arizona, and/or (b) Duke is marginally better than tOSU. Again, such thoughts [both a and b] are pleasing, but (b) is especially puzzling. The Vegas guys seem high on Duke.


You're right: UK is much better than Arizona. tOSU would be a 13 point favorite over Arizona. (I'm using Pomeroy here, he projects us as a 10 point favorite over Arizona as a comparison.)

One interesting thing to note: Pomeroy has tOSU as a 7 point favorite over UK, so Vegas might be giving extra credit to Kentucky for their recently improved play.




I can't quite agree with your very bold statement that "Michigan is objectively a better team than Arizona," but if yesterday was a "typical" Michigan effort, I'm persuadable. Given that it was generally conceded that Texas was [maybe way] underseeded, that Arizona beat them does not suggest a mediocre Arizona team.


Texas has played significantly worse near the end of the season. Multiple mediocre offenses (K-State, TAMU) put up over 1 point per possession against them. To see an elite offense like Arizona do so isn't that surprising. And remember, Michigan was very competitive against OSU and KU.




The bottom line for me is that I am [pleasantly, but skeptically] surprised that Duke is, along with KU [over Richmond] easily the most solid favorite going into the S 16 round.

Don't worry, we'll have much harder games against SDSU/UConn and potentially OSU if we keep winning.

[Bluedog]

81% of the public is on UA right now, and the line isn't moving. Yes, Vegas makes money on the vig. But they also make significantly more money by getting 90% of the bets to jump on the wrong side.

And Chris Duhon hitting a meaningless super long-range 3 to cover the spread against UConn....One casino in particular says that was one of the biggest shots from a money perspective they have ever had. Made them huge bucks.

By the way, I'm now seeing UConn as a one point favorite over SDSU. On the other hand, Pomeroy has SDSU winning by 4 with a 67% chance of victory. He counts it as a "semi-home" game for the Aztecs.

[uh_no]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

Because pod dates and region dates are set in advance, and since pods feed into two different regions, then there is a decent chance that one of the teams in the pods will have to switch from a th/sa to a fr/su or vice versa


If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

I think coach k has figured out how to deal with it...don't you? At least you're not as bad as the people complaining we're at a disadvantage by playing a 9pm game one day and a 7 pm game next...since the other team has 2 more hours to prepare!!!

[Jderf]

You have to remember that bookies are not trying to predict the game so much as to predict the betting. They want half the people to take either side of the bet because that's how they make the most money. So, actually, it's the public that seems high on Duke, rather than the "Vegas guys."

True. However, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I remember reading somewhere (maybe on Pomeroy's blog) that in the long term Vegas tends to out-perform pretty much any other commonly used "predictor" (kenpom, sagarin, AP top-25, seeding numbers). Must be the power of crowd-sourcing.

[SMO]

Kyrie is simply deferring way too much to Nolan. Not sure if this is a coaching decision, or if it's Kyrie's preference to defer. Buy Kyrie needs to control and initiate the offense a lot more going forward, especially late in games.

I think that's because it was his 10th college game and 2nd in 3 months. I'd be tempted to defer to the ACC POY too. Hopefully they gel a little bit this week and are more like thunder & lightning and less like Pancho & Cisco.

[BlueandWhite]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

Someone may have already responded to this -- Duke didn't get "switched" to earlier games -- this is because all of the regional finals dates are always predetermined months and months (years when regional finals sites are selected?) in advance.

When Duke was seeded as #1 in the West, they were guaranteed to play their Sweet 16 game in Anaheim on Thursday night. There's no conspiracy here. So, some teams are just at a one day disadvantage in terms of travel time and lost practice time based on what early round site they played in and whether their regional finals dates are the Thu/Sat games, or the Fri/Sun games.

Given all other considerations, and the way our coaches and players focus in preparation, I seriously doubt this will make much of a difference & in fact they might prefer to play on Thursday vs. one extra day off.

Go Duke!

[mehmattski]

Famed prognosticator Nate Silver has Duke with an 80% chance at victory, second highest among Sweet 16 games (Kansas has an 85% chance to overcome arachnophobia):

http://ncaabracket.nytimes.com/2011/bracket/men/fivethirtyeight-forecast

[Reilly]

I don't bet. Over the years, I'd heard the conventional wisdom that Vegas wanted the money split evenly. This question came up when Alabama was only a 23 point favorite over Duke in football last Fall. There was a good discussion on the Scout board "The Devils Den" by Duke fans who do bet, and who seemed to indicate that Vegas wanting money split evenly is a fallacy. I seem to recall they cited some books on the topic. You may have to register to view the discussion, but here's the link:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=167&f=1093&t=6361137&p=2

[House G]

I think they have more weaknesses than this. For one thing, their 2 point defense is REALLY bad for a top team: 281st to be exact. Block percentage is 289. Steal percentage is 298. And they are 252nd at forcing turnovers on defense. Their defense does not generate a lot of extra possessions for the offense. Also, they are 155th in offensive rebounding, which isn't bad, but is nothing too scary, either. This is probably a big reason why they are only 18th in offensive efficiency despite having an array of sharpshooters and the extremely efficient Williams.

They have also benefited mightily from really good free throw defense. I don't know what their strategy is, but teams are shooting a paltry 67% at the line. Assuming Kyle can correct his free throw issues from the other day, we have a great chance at besting this mark by a decent margin. The lack of shot blockers makes drives by Nolan, Kyrie, and Kyle that much more dangerous. If we take away their three point shooting (or at least make it significantly less effective) and clean up on the boards, they will have a very difficult time generating offense. Williams will probably get his (although I expect Coach K to devise some interesting schemes for guarding him), but if we force contested 3's, rebound, take care of the ball, and attack the rim, they will be the ones scratching their heads, trying to figure out how in the world to stop us.

Stats from kenpom (http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Arizona).

I believe the success of J'Covan Brown against Arizona bodes well for Nolan and Kyrie.

[weezie]

One of the very, very few things I would ever even consider choosing over a Duke tournament game is a Prince concert. He was the best live performer I have ever seen, and even though I have seen a number of other exceptional concerts, there isn't even a close second.


Aaagggh, this is a tough one. I agree on the best live performer ever. I've seen him a few times and he never fails to stagger with his virtuosity. Even if tivoing the game,geez, still a very tough sudoku puzzle.
But, it's a great problem to have! :cool:

As to the wildcats, though, let Williams have his points, the rest of the team is going to struggle against our pressure. I've watched them and they are easily distractable.

[sporthenry]

I believe the success of J'Covan Brown against Arizona bodes well for Nolan and Kyrie.

Actually, the Memphis game was even worse. Granted Joe Jackson might be the quickest guy in the game, but literally, Memphis just inverted their offense, put the guard on the baseline, drew Williams out of the post (Ryan Kelly anyone?), and nobody rotated over on just about every possession. I'm sure K will figure it out as Pastner got away from this and the young guards resorted to shooting 3's.

But I'm more concerned about their ability to hit 3's and they seem to be a team who will spread us out. Similar to us having mismatches, they will either have a 6'6 guy being covered by Dre or Curry or a 6'7 guy being covered by Kelly or a Plumlee. Originally, I figured Duke could control the boards again but Zona is a good defensive rebounding team so not sure if that is b/c of teams playing smaller or they have good rebounding guards and Williams gets everything.

Either way, Duke gave up a lot of open 3's vs UM and I'd hope we could see a better defensive effort where the switching probably isn't as rampant b/c I don't really want to see KI only Williams or Mason on their guard.

[DukieInBrasil]

Match-ups work both ways. When dealing with a quality player such as Williams it is best to go right at him. We should dump the ball inside to Miles and/or Mason and force Williams to defend the Plumlees. It wouldn't hurt my feelings to see the Arizona All America pick up a couple of early fouls.

There are multiples strategies available to employ. I expect we will frequently double team Williams when he has the ball. Of course it will all start with ball pressure on Arizona's point guard who has to deal with Nolan Smith's incessant defensive presence.
I am increasingly hesitant about the idea of dumping it down low to either Plumlee to let them operate b/c they turn it over too much. If they have an open shot (Miles has a nice little jumper) or can go to work on that jump hook right away (Mason) or pass from the key to an open perimeter player, that's fine, but Mason in particular is turning the ball over trying to dribble across the lane and is also a terrible FT shooter and the the D can essentially cause a turn by fouling him in the 1-n-1 bonus.
The MPs are rebounding well and playing pretty good D, and they've been providing enough offense, but looking to them specifically to generate O is not what I would do with our offense.

[SCMatt33]

I don't bet. Over the years, I'd heard the conventional wisdom that Vegas wanted the money split evenly. This question came up when Alabama was only a 23 point favorite over Duke in football last Fall. There was a good discussion on the Scout board "The Devils Den" by Duke fans who do bet, and who seemed to indicate that Vegas wanting money split evenly is a fallacy. I seem to recall they cited some books on the topic. You may have to register to view the discussion, but here's the link:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=167&f=1093&t=6361137&p=2

I don't really no for sure about any of the stuff that Vegas truly wants, so take this as an opinion of what I have read over time (most of which involves articles and interviews with people who used to work for bookmakers). From what I can gather, in a perfect world, Vegas would love to produce initial lines on each game that would produce equal money on each side, but given that it is impossible to do that, they have to settle for avoiding unnecessary risk. Vegas has 2 sources of money to deal with, the betting public and the professional gamblers. One very important thing I don't know at all is the percentages which those two represent.

Once their initial line is set, however, they can't move it very much or the pros will be all over it. Take this game. The initial line was set at 9 and much of the betting public (don't know what pros think) would gladly take Arizona plus the points. If they tried to move that to get equal betting and had to move it to two or three, they would open themselves up to pros getting both sides (Arizona +9 AND Duke -3) which leaves the in between range, Duke by 3-9, as an area where they would see huge losses greater than if they just left it alone or moves the line to just 7 or 8.

Because of this, there is tremendous pressure to get the line "right" compared to what will actually happen on the court. If they are too far off from this, the pros will again be all over it. If they are off from what the public thinks, it isn't as big of a deal, since the action on the game won't increase as much and the public puts extra weight on recent events that may not matter.

I feel like the pros are sitting out there and recognizing that even though Duke played poorly at the end of the Michigan game, they match up well against Arizona. Derrick Williams is a big problem for Duke, but as a team, Arizona doesn't expose Duke's weaknesses. Statistically, Duke's worst areas are defensive rebounding and getting to the foul line (though the latter goes away somewhat with Kyrie back). Even though shooting and not committing turnovers are generally strengths for Duke, when they have gone wrong, it has caused problems (turnovers have the second highest correlation to offensive efficiency for Duke next to shooting and they both have a much higher correlation than rebounding or free throw attempts). Not coincidentally, those four areas (eFG% defense, defensive TO%, offensive rebounding, and keeping other teams off the line) are the worst statistically for Arizona. I feel like even though Arizona is a good team, they don't match up well with Duke, and hence, the seemingly large point spread.

[superdave]

Several people have posted that Derrick Williams can be too passive at times. If he's as good as they say and "only" averaged 19 ppg that may be true. I remember two years ago when Blake Griffin played vs. Unc in the Elite 8 and spent the whole first half trying to get his teammates involved, but failed to put pressure on the D. They dug themselves a hole they could not crawl out of. So I'd love it if Derrick Williams defers a lot early on. I like our chances of defending Arizona in that scenario.

Also, Nolan's on-ball defense has been incredible of late - Marshall in the ACCT final and on Morris vs. Michigan yesterday. If he can keep that up for the bulk of the game, our defense leaps to another level. He's incredibly disruptive.

[Chitowndevil]

I don't bet. Over the years, I'd heard the conventional wisdom that Vegas wanted the money split evenly. This question came up when Alabama was only a 23 point favorite over Duke in football last Fall. There was a good discussion on the Scout board "The Devils Den" by Duke fans who do bet, and who seemed to indicate that Vegas wanting money split evenly is a fallacy. I seem to recall they cited some books on the topic. You may have to register to view the discussion, but here's the link:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=167&f=1093&t=6361137&p=2

Well, I don't know that it's a fallacy, more like a simplification. Most sports books including casinos are market makers. They are providing liquidity in exchange for a spread. Sports betting markets are therefore much like other over the counter asset markets like bonds and currencies. Each casino sets a supply schedule for how much action they're willing to take at a given price (point spread), and when they hit that limit, the price changes. So there's a sense in which they're "equalizing action on both sides", but really it's just that they're setting a supply schedule.

Prices equalize across casinos due to arbitrage: if I can bet Duke -4 at one casino and Arizona +6 at another, I take both bets, and thus break even unless Duke wins by exactly 5, in which case I make money. In reality it's not that simple because casinos are charging a spread, so say if both bets are for $100, one that wins may only pay $90. However, if the difference is large enough, say Duke -4 versus Arizona +8, it may very well make sense to invest $10 to win $180 if Duke wins by exactly 5, 6, or 7.

So really, saying that casinos are trying to "equalize action on both sides" isn't quite right, but it does get at two important facts, namely that casinos are making their money on the spreads, not by betting against you, and that a lot of betting on Duke -4 will move the line to Duke -5. But it's really the same as in any other market: a lot of demand for an asset causes the price to go up.

There are plenty of academic papers on this if you're curious, for example:
http://www.jstor.org/stable/117447

[OldPhiKap]

I have not seen AZ play this year. For those who have -- do they play like any ACC school? Is Williams similar to any players in the conference?

[Saratoga2]

coaching staff, kyle plums curry, and nolan dawkins irving

Ryan had A VERY GOOD game against Michigan

[gumbomoop]

.... people complaining we're at a disadvantage by playing a 9pm game one day and a 7 pm game next...since the other team has 2 more hours to prepare!!!

I realize you are criticizing folks who complain about playing the late game.

But just to be sure that your hypothetical example doesn't confuse the careless reader, let me say that it's my understanding that Duke plays Arizona Thurs eve at roughly 9:45 EDT, which means local time is 6:45 WDT.

Now, should Duke win [yes, Duke should], I'm pretty sure that their Sat game would be the second game, which is scheduled to begin roughly 6:45-7 EDT, which means local time is 3:45-4 WDT. I'm guessing a Duke win would mean that Duke v. either SDSU or UConn would be the Sat 2d game "marquee" matchup [in CBS's eyes], compared to whichever 2 teams emerge in the New Orleans region [Butler, Wisc, BYU, Fla].

[Chitowndevil]

Here are my thoughts on the Duke/Zona matchup. As usual numbers are per kenpom.com.

1) Duke had a substantial size advantage its tournament games. Hampton and Michigan rank 182nd and 250th in the country in effective height (player height weighted by minutes). Duke is 6th in the country in this stat while Arizona is 173rd.

2) However, that advantage affected two games in very different ways. Hampton has only two players with over 100 3-point attempts. Michigan has four, not including 6-4 Darius Morris. So while the Plumlees dominated the game against Hampton, their 15 and 18 minutes against Michigan were the fewest out of 8 players that saw action for the Devils.

3) Arizona has five players with at least 75 attempts from 3, the tallest of which is 6-7. This doesn't include All-American Derrick Williams, who is 36-62 (.582) from 3 point range on the season. The Wildcats take "only" 36.5% of their shots from 3, compared to Michigan's 43%, but shoot a much higher percentage: 39.9%, which is 9th in the country.

4) Statistically, Arizona and Michigan are strikingly similar on defense. Both teams guard the perimeter well. Arizona is superb in this regard, holding opposing teams below 30% from 3. But, perhaps unsurprisingly due to their height, both teams have problems inside the arc, where opponents shoot 50%. Neither team creates many turnovers, but both are solid on the defensive glass.

5) That said, the two are very different on the court. Coach K seemed to attribute some of yesterday's endgame difficulties to a lack of experience against the 1-3-1 zone. Arizona is a man-to-man team, much more in Duke's comfort zone. Hopefully this means the Plumlees will be able to create some mismatches on the offensive end.

6) Arizona is strikingly deep, playing a 10 man rotation where everyone (including Derrick Williams!) averages between 10 and 30 minutes per game. Contrast this with Michigan, which goes 7 deep, and Duke, which one expects will run an 8 man rotation with Kyrie Irving healthy.

7) The big question, of course, is who guards Derrick Williams. I suspect a lot of people's first answer would be Singler. But at 6-8, Williams is often the tallest player on the floor for Arizona. Surprisingly, however, Texas's game plan going into yesterday was to put 6-6 senior forward Gary Johnson on Williams. I only caught bits and pieces of that game, but they did hold him to 3 points in the first half.

This is one of those times I'd really, really like to have the extra day of practice. Not just for Kyrie, but to figure out how we're going to defend lineups with 3-4 shooters and keep the Plumlees in the game against a much smaller team.

[J4Kop99]

I do not want to seem overconfident but I do feel, strongly, that Duke matches up much better with Arizona's style of play, compared to how they matched up with the style of play of Michigan.

Michigan's zone forced us to change our attack-style on offense. Some of us think Coach K slowed it up on purpose, but either way, the 1-3-1 zone was the main reason for our slower style of play. It seemed as if Coach just accepted that Michigan was going to slow down the tempo and made us(duke) change our style of play.

Arizona plays a much faster paced, man-to-man type of game. I watched around 10 of their games this season and saw mostly the same things each time. They certainly have talent, but our size will be a huge advantage. Against Michigan, we couldn't really utilize our size advantage because the Plumlee's don't help much when attacking a 1-3-1. Against Arizona, it will be a free-flowing game where size becomes very important.

I think some of us are worrying because of how close the Michigan game ended up. It seemed as if some of you guys were saying it would be close but didn't actually believe it. Basically, thursdays game comes down to whether Duke is willing to play a complete 40-minute game. Against Michigan it seemed as if the guys believed they would win no matter what... that is a scary belief. Luckily, we still had enough to hold off Michigan at the end.

[Leck]

AZ seems to me to be somewhat reminiscent of maryland with jordan williams...albeit both derrick williams and the AZ team is much more skilled and athletic. so that might be a workable blueprint.

it's gonna be an interesting match-up though, particularly with sean miller and archie miller's experience against us in the acc. i think we throw all four bigs at derrick williams throughout the night and wear him down as well as locking down the three-point line and denying penetration to nic jones and solomon hill. on offense, we spread the floor, pull williams and hill out of the paint and work the dribble drive all night long, finishing at the rim and hitting open jump shots.

[-bdbd]

Does anyone know how well 'zona travels? In LA I would expect the crowd to be heavily pro-SDSU, but would expect the Wildcats to have the second-biggest crowd. IF SDSU wins the first game - for this reason I might root against them (that and the fact that I'd just salivate at the chance to remind Calhoun, directly, who is the best coach in CBB) - then I could see the Azrtec fans pulling for Arizona against us, so as to get an easier opponent on Saturday. Thoughts?


1) Duke had a substantial size advantage its tournament games. Hampton and Michigan rank 182nd and 250th in the country in effective height (player height weighted by minutes). Duke is 6th in the country in this stat while Arizona is 173rd.'expect Duke to have a significant size/Reb. advantage and hopefully many 2nd-chance pts. But we know K will play w/ different combos early to ID/gain max advanatge.


2) However, that advantage affected two games in very different ways. Hampton has only two players with over 100 3-point attempts. Michigan has four, not including 6-4 Darius Morris. So while the Plumlees dominated the game against Hampton, their 15 and 18 minutes against Michigan were the fewest out of 8 players that saw action for the Devils. 'was very surprised to see them both sitting down the stretch. But nice for K to have the flexibility to tweak line-ups for match-ups like that. Mismatches go both ways!


3) Arizona has five players with at least 75 attempts from 3, the tallest of which is 6-7. This doesn't include All-American Derrick Williams, who is 36-62 (.582) from 3 point range on the season. The Wildcats take "only" 36.5% of their shots from 3, compared to Michigan's 43%, but shoot a much higher percentage: 39.9%, which is 9th in the country. This seems to be the crucible on which the game is most likely to turn. Can we defend their 3's well enough? Can we hit hours against a decent 3-pt-defense?


4) Statistically, Arizona and Michigan are strikingly similar on defense. Both teams guard the perimeter well. Arizona is superb in this regard, holding opposing teams below 30% from 3. But, perhaps unsurprisingly due to their height, both teams have problems inside the arc, where opponents shoot 50%. Neither team creates many turnovers, but both are solid on the defensive glass. I suspect this game might see more, and more effective, penetration by Duke guards. Maybe more 2's than normal.


5) That said, the two are very different on the court. Coach K seemed to attribute some of yesterday's endgame difficulties to a lack of experience against the 1-3-1 zone. Arizona is a man-to-man team, much more in Duke's comfort zone. Hopefully this means the Plumlees will be able to create some dangerous mismatches on the offensive end. Given our athletes and size, I think we welcome the man-to-man play from AZ. But this also means there will be some mis-matches going the other eway too.


6) Arizona is strikingly deep, playing a 10 man rotation where everyone (including Derrick Williams!) averages between 10 and 30 minutes per game. Contrast this with Michigan, which goes 7 deep, and Duke, which one expects will run an 8 man rotation with Kyrie Irving healthy. We just play our game and we'll be fine. And our rotation just got another healthy body. I'm not worried about our guys running out of gas on Thursday. Now, Sat. could be different, but we'll cross that bridge later...


7) The big question, of course, is who guards Derrick Williams. I suspect a lot of people's first answer would be Singler. But at 6-8, Williams is often the tallest player on the floor for Arizona. Surprisingly, however, Texas's game plan going into yesterday was to put 6-6 senior forward Gary Johnson on Williams. I only caught bits and pieces of that game, but they did hold him to 3 points in the first half. I think Singler has to guard one of their 6'6" swing players (unless we really want to have Plumlees guarding them???), but expect to see Duke use multiple bodies at different times on Williams. K will want to see who has the greatest success, as well as to wear on him throughout the game. Of course, if we go small like at the end of the Mich game, then Singler on Williams becomes possible b/c Ryan is better capable of covering 6'6" swings than the Plum-bros.


This is one of those times I'd really, really like to have the extra day of practice. Not just for Kyrie, but to figure out how we're going to defend lineups with 3-4 shooters and keep the Plumlees in the game against a much smaller team. Four days should be sufficient. I trust K thoroughly in these games after 4-5 days rest. I'm more focused on the guards getting their chemistry/roles down in playing together post Kyrie-injury. (No more standing around like we did down the stretch on offense!! Ugh!) :rolleyes:

[Bluedevil114]

Ryan had A VERY GOOD game against Michigan

I just watched the Michigan game again. As I do after every victory. I watch the game again in a more stress free mindset. Up 15 with ten minutes to go then our defense disappeared and their defense became dominant. Michigan would rebound the ball and Ryan Kelly's man would sprint the length of the floor run past our guards (usually Nolan) then the ball would be thrown over top for an uncontested dunk. This happened over and over. Looked like our defense stopped talking and we did not learn. They out-hustled us over the final ten minutes. Ryan Kelly was way too slow and getting caught on the blocks after misses. Ryan Kelly's defense was not great in the second half until he stepped up in the lane on the final shot.

[Kedsy]

I trust K thoroughly in these games after 4-5 days rest.

This got me thinking. It's almost a truism that a great coach like K will get the job done if he gets the extra preparation time, right?

So I just went through every NCAA tournament that Duke has played in (which is every tournament since 1984 except one). Our record in games with extra time to prepare has been 44-13 (.772) and our record in games with only one day to prepare is 35-9 (.795). Meaning we've been knocked out 9 times with one day and 13 times with extra time. Advantage to only having one day.

In the current century, the division is more pronounced. Since 2000, we have won the NC twice. In the remaining nine years, we have been knocked out 8 times in a game for which we had extra time to prepare and only once in a game where we only had one day (2008 to West Virginia).

Overall:

Losses with extra time to prepare:
---------------------------------
Lost first game: 3
Lost in Sweet 16: 7
Lost in Final Four: 3

Losses with one day to prepare:
-------------------------------
Lost second game: 4
Lost in Elite Eight: 1
Lost in championship game: 4

The thing that jumps out at you is we've only been knocked out once in the Elite Eight (one day) during K's tenure and 7 times in the Sweet 16 (3 or 4 days).

I conclude that the extra time to prepare is not necessarily an advantage for Duke.

[pfrduke]

Does anyone know how well 'zona travels? In LA I would expect the crowd to be heavily pro-SDSU, but would expect the Wildcats to have the second-biggest crowd. IF SDSU wins the first game - for this reason I might root against them (that and the fact that I'd just salivate at the chance to remind Calhoun, directly, who is the best coach in CBB) - then I could see the Azrtec fans pulling for Arizona against us, so as to get an easier opponent on Saturday. Thoughts?

Arizona doesn't even need to travel particularly well - a very sizable portion of the school's alumni base is in Southern California.

[OldPhiKap]

This got me thinking. It's almost a truism that a great coach like K will get the job done if he gets the extra preparation time, right?

So I just went through every NCAA tournament that Duke has played in (which is every tournament since 1984 except one). Our record in games with extra time to prepare has been 44-13 (.772) and our record in games with only one day to prepare is 35-9 (.795). Meaning we've been knocked out 9 times with one day and 13 times with extra time. Advantage to only having one day.

In the current century, the division is more pronounced. Since 2000, we have won the NC twice. In the remaining nine years, we have been knocked out 8 times in a game for which we had extra time to prepare and only once in a game where we only had one day (2008 to West Virginia).

Overall:

Losses with extra time to prepare:
---------------------------------
Lost first game: 3
Lost in Sweet 16: 7
Lost in Final Four: 3

Losses with one day to prepare:
-------------------------------
Lost second game: 4
Lost in Elite Eight: 1
Lost in championship game: 4

The thing that jumps out at you is we've only been knocked out once in the Elite Eight (one day) during K's tenure and 7 times in the Sweet 16 (3 or 4 days).

I conclude that the extra time to prepare is not necessarily an advantage for Duke.

Excellent analysis, although I would differ with the conclusion (or at least spin it around). I would posit that having a long period allows the other team to prepare for us better, while in a shorter turn-around they have less time to get ready to figure out how to attack us.

[Faison1]

I'm starting to obsess.

Is it Thursday yet?

Has anyone heard an update on how Kyrie is practicing?

How can any employer expect anyone to get anything accomplished this week?

[Kedsy]

Excellent analysis, although I would differ with the conclusion (or at least spin it around). I would posit that having a long period allows the other team to prepare for us better, while in a shorter turn-around they have less time to get ready to figure out how to attack us.

I agree with you. But my conclusion wasn't intending to suggest a rationale; I simply concluded the extra time was not an advantage for Duke.

[MChambers]

I agree with you. But my conclusion wasn't intending to suggest a rationale; I simply concluded the extra time was not an advantage for Duke.
If you're really going to draw conclusions, wouldn't you have to look at how Duke performed relative to its seed? (I'm too lazy to do this, of course.) :-)

[-jk]

Excellent analysis, although I would differ with the conclusion (or at least spin it around). I would posit that having a long period allows the other team to prepare for us better, while in a shorter turn-around they have less time to get ready to figure out how to attack us.


I agree with you. But my conclusion wasn't intending to suggest a rationale; I simply concluded the extra time was not an advantage for Duke.

I wonder (and I have no intention of actually crunching these numbers) - how does K compare to other successful coaches? Do the other top 10 tourney coaches (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=39366) Al Featherston wrote about do better than average on short turnarounds? Or is K an outlier?

I suspect most of the top tourney coaches are superior in preparing on short notice. I think K's advantage is a very adept staff (many stories extol how efficiently Duke runs practices) and players who have been taught basketball and flexibility rather than work to perfect a particular system.

-jk

[Devil07]

I agree with you. But my conclusion wasn't intending to suggest a rationale; I simply concluded the extra time was not an advantage for Duke.

Definitely very interesting, thanks for looking into that. Although there are probably numerous explanations, my inclination is that the stronger performance with less time is a reflection of the fact that Coach K and his staff are better, relative to other staffs, at preparing for an opponent in a short time frame. That could be a reflection of quicker scouting, more discipline within the staff, or more effective short-term teaching to the players. Either way, Duke has been more efficient in game preparation, meaning that a smaller time period benefits Duke relative to our opponents. That advantage seems to be at least somewhat neutralized when there is a greater time. In other words, Duke's advantage in quick turnaround games is Coach K's relative efficiency in game preparation. As opponents have more time to prepare, that comparative advantage decreases and game planning/preparation probably becomes closer to equal. Although I would still give Duke an edge in this department, the extra advantage that Duke has by having an incredibly efficient staff does seem to matter less when the opponent has extra time since those coaches are more often than not also good game planners, but just less able to do so at Coach K's level when constrained by time.

[UrinalCake]

Our record in games with extra time to prepare has been 44-13 (.772) and our record in games with only one day to prepare is 35-9 (.795).

That's really interesting, especially since the one-day turnaround games are, on average, played against better teams. The reason I say this is because a one-day game must be preceded by a extended prep game, and the farther you advance the tougher your opponent gets. Credit Coach K and his ability to prepare on short notice.

[sagegrouse]

Definitely very interesting, thanks for looking into that. Although there are probably numerous explanations, my inclination is that the stronger performance with less time is a reflection of the fact that Coach K and his staff are better, relative to other staffs, at preparing for an opponent in a short time frame. That could be a reflection of quicker scouting, more discipline within the staff, or more effective short-term teaching to the players. Either way, Duke has been more efficient in game preparation, meaning that a smaller time period benefits Duke relative to our opponents. That advantage seems to be at least somewhat neutralized when there is a greater time. In other words, Duke's advantage in quick turnaround games is Coach K's relative efficiency in game preparation. As opponents have more time to prepare, that comparative advantage decreases and game planning/preparation probably becomes closer to equal. Although I would still give Duke an edge in this department, the extra advantage that Duke has by having an incredibly efficient staff does seem to matter less when the opponent has extra time since those coaches are more often than not also good game planners, but just less able to do so at Coach K's level when constrained by time.

Lets talk about big numbers, not just a few Sweet Sixteen games. K has coached 100 NCAA tournament games -- more than anyone else -- and has the highest winning percentage among active coaches. 100 games is a lot of data points, especially compared with only a few data points of Sweet Sixteen losses in the past 12 years. So the real question is why Duke and K are so good in NCAA tournament games (and ACC-T games, for that matter) -- not why is Duke better at games with one-day rest vs. 4-5 day rest. The latter is a subset of the larger question, and there is not enough data to infer anything.

Here's one answer: Duke plays at an extremely high level of intensity on defense and also on offense. This is well known and well understood within conference, because Duke plays 17 to 19 games every year against ACC opponents in Jan, Feb and March. The poor devils that draw Duke in the NCAAs have heard about the intensity but have not experienced it firsthand. Advantage, Duke.

sagegrouse

[ice-9]

This got me thinking. It's almost a truism that a great coach like K will get the job done if he gets the extra preparation time, right?

So I just went through every NCAA tournament that Duke has played in (which is every tournament since 1984 except one). Our record in games with extra time to prepare has been 44-13 (.772) and our record in games with only one day to prepare is 35-9 (.795). Meaning we've been knocked out 9 times with one day and 13 times with extra time. Advantage to only having one day.

In the current century, the division is more pronounced. Since 2000, we have won the NC twice. In the remaining nine years, we have been knocked out 8 times in a game for which we had extra time to prepare and only once in a game where we only had one day (2008 to West Virginia).

Overall:

Losses with extra time to prepare:
---------------------------------
Lost first game: 3
Lost in Sweet 16: 7
Lost in Final Four: 3

Losses with one day to prepare:
-------------------------------
Lost second game: 4
Lost in Elite Eight: 1
Lost in championship game: 4

The thing that jumps out at you is we've only been knocked out once in the Elite Eight (one day) during K's tenure and 7 times in the Sweet 16 (3 or 4 days).

I conclude that the extra time to prepare is not necessarily an advantage for Duke.


Thanks for this research! Very interesting! I had the same suspicions given how we seemed to lose more in the Sweet 16 than in the Elite 8.

However, in this case, I'm betting an extra day would be an advantage to us -- primarily because it gives us more time to reintegrate Kyrie into the team.

[Kedsy]

Thanks for this research! Very interesting! I had the same suspicions given how we seemed to lose more in the Sweet 16 than in the Elite 8.

However, in this case, I'm betting an extra day would be an advantage to us -- primarily because it gives us more time to reintegrate Kyrie into the team.

I agree the Kyrie situation this year means every day we get to practice makes us a much better team.

[MChambers]

I agree the Kyrie situation this year means every day we get to practice makes us a much better team.
Agreed, and we'll have an advantage against the winner of the East bracket, should we advance to the Final Four, because we'll have an extra day of practice.

[superdave]

I saw the team flew out to LA today. They get two nights of sleep to adjust to the 3 hour time difference. That should be plenty for the young guys. I hope the coaches can adjust though!

What facility is in Anaheim? Is this where the Sacramento Kings would play next year?

[BluDvlsN1]

Being a newcomer (only to this board), I have come to a conclusion today !

Having been through the thread that was postulating about the various
NCAA labels on how to determine currently via binary on which round is
being played out! Gave an ADD,dyslexic,pre-alzheimer's guy and interesting read and a headache ! Great Stuff!!

Then the Dr.K thread on stall ball

and to keep this brief,now this thread !!

What a great board!

My conclusion is I should keep quite, and read!

Keep it up guys, haven't seen anything to comare!

[MChambers]

I saw the team flew out to LA today. They get two nights of sleep to adjust to the 3 hour time difference. That should be plenty for the young guys. I hope the coaches can adjust though!

What facility is in Anaheim? Is this where the Sacramento Kings would play next year?
Mason said that Coach K told the players to stay up late yesterday. A reporter noted that this might have been the first time a coach told his players to stay up late. Mason smiled and said that all the players looked at each other to see if Coach K was putting them on.

[wilson]

What facility is in Anaheim? Is this where the Sacramento Kings would play next year?The Honda Center (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Center). It was originally known as the Arrowhead Pond. It's the home arena for the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. Inaugural event: a Barry Manilow concert (no, seriously).
It would indeed be the home arena for the Kings should they move to Anaheim.
Apparently the Maloofs have filed several trademarks on potential names there already, most of them variations on "Royals". Apparently they want to differentiate themselves from the NHL's L.A. Kings, who also wear purple and black. However, the Sacramento Kings would not be able to call themselves the "L.A." anything if they moved to the Honda Center, as the city's contract with the arena requires any team playing home games there to have "Anaheim" as the first city named in the official franchise moniker (this is a similar contractual naming convention to the one which has given us the ridiculously named Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim).

[OldPhiKap]

Being a newcomer (only to this board), I have come to a conclusion today !

Having been through the thread that was postulating about the various
NCAA labels on how to determine currently via binary on which round is
being played out! Gave an ADD,dyslexic,pre-alzheimer's guy and interesting read and a headache ! Great Stuff!!

Then the Dr.K thread on stall ball

and to keep this brief,now this thread !!

What a great board!

My conclusion is I should keep quite, and read!

Keep it up guys, haven't seen anything to comare!

Welcome, join the conversations! -- OPK

[Devil07]

What facility is in Anaheim? Is this where the Sacramento Kings would play next year?

Does the team also get access to a practice court on Wednesday at any point other than the open practice? I noticed in the article about Zona linked on the front page that they will be practicing twice on Wednesday. If there is a possibility of a closed practice, would it be at the Honda Center as well or on the home court of whichever school is "hosting" the regional?

[Les Grossman]

Foul him out. Run all 3 bigs at him.
that is all....

[Phoenix22]

Foul him out. Run all 3 bigs at him.
that is all....

This. Also, have Nolan, Kyle, and Kyrie penetrate right at Williams. He will foul. He also has a tendency to disappear at times, he can be taken out of his game.

On D our pressure can force them into careless mistakes. I don't know how many turnovers I've seen them commit on routine passes to the wings = easy fastbreak layup. I'm looking forward to a nice 10 year reunion!

As a Duke alum ('01) from Arizona, I am gonna enjoy beating UA - again!

1st post!

[OldPhiKap]

1st post!

And a beaut!

[sporthenry]

I agree that KI and Nolan's penetration is the best possiblity of getting him into foul trouble. If not fouling them, he will be out of position when he tries to recover if they pass to a big.
But I also believe that he is prime for an offensive foul. I think K will try to repeat Texas' ability to push Williams off the block and make him get the ball on the perimter. From there, he often puts his head down and spins, I expect to see Kyle or Ryan take at least one charge which could be the biggest call of the game (although I'm sure everyone will claim it was a flop).
But he often does take a few possessions off but who knows how he will respond to a prime time game. But personally, I think 'Zona's offense flowed more when they didn't force him the ball. Of course, it helped they hit their 3's. But Duke will have to do a good job not fouling him b/c that was the way he got 'Zona back in the game.

[Chris Randolph]

While I agree that getting Williams in foul trouble would be nice, it can't be a gameplan!!! They have other players too. Of course you want to slow down the best player, but they can shoot and drive it so we've got much more on our hands than Williams. The thought of Kyrie and Nolan attacking the lane/rim/Williams is good and exactly what we want to see.........

If/when they attack Williams, they must do so with the mindset of finishing, not getting fouled. The fouls will come if you are attacking to finish, not the opposite (refs won't bail you out, especially against a top player).

[J4Kop99]

Foul him out. Run all 3 bigs at him.
that is all....

Why, of course.

[77devil]

This got me thinking. It's almost a truism that a great coach like K will get the job done if he gets the extra preparation time, right?

So I just went through every NCAA tournament that Duke has played in (which is every tournament since 1984 except one). Our record in games with extra time to prepare has been 44-13 (.772) and our record in games with only one day to prepare is 35-9 (.795). Meaning we've been knocked out 9 times with one day and 13 times with extra time. Advantage to only having one day.

In the current century, the division is more pronounced. Since 2000, we have won the NC twice. In the remaining nine years, we have been knocked out 8 times in a game for which we had extra time to prepare and only once in a game where we only had one day (2008 to West Virginia).

Overall:

Losses with extra time to prepare:
---------------------------------
Lost first game: 3
Lost in Sweet 16: 7
Lost in Final Four: 3

Losses with one day to prepare:
-------------------------------
Lost second game: 4
Lost in Elite Eight: 1
Lost in championship game: 4

The thing that jumps out at you is we've only been knocked out once in the Elite Eight (one day) during K's tenure and 7 times in the Sweet 16 (3 or 4 days).

I conclude that the extra time to prepare is not necessarily an advantage for Duke.

Thanks for doing the work. You might even be right, but, unfortunately, the data doesn't support a conclusion one way or another. There are just too many other variables in play that the analysis doesn't control for. Coach K has said the tournament is all about match ups. I would argue that's a much more critical variable than the turnaround time, as is the quality of the opposing coach and team.

[NYBri]

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/42218121/ns/sports-college_basketball/

DURHAM, N.C. - Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski says point guard Kyrie Irving will play "significant minutes" in the West regional semifinal against Arizona.

[redacted for copyright.]

[Kfanarmy]

Kyrie is simply deferring way too much to Nolan. Not sure if this is a coaching decision, or if it's Kyrie's preference to defer. Buy Kyrie needs to control and initiate the offense a lot more going forward, especially late in games.
This assessment follows his first two games back after a 3-month absence in which Nolan has arguably been the best college player in the nation. They will adjust, and hopefully be aggressive as a team, but KI deferring to Nolan in those games was wholly predictable.

[Duke31122]

I think Singler will play well as he always does. His shot is starting to come along as he made 2 long range jumpers against Michigan. Singler is a guy that is going to play well no matter what. He plays hard and gives you everything he has. I will truly miss him when he is gone.

[millerecu]

I guess I have a hard time seeing why Duke should have a problem with Arizona. I guess the travel might be an issue...but I am sure Coach K will have a remedy for that one.

After checking out Arizona's schedule this year they lost to every rank team they played. We played two of the same opponents...NCSU they beat by 10 while Duke beat them by 14 and 24....Oregon they beat by 19 and 8 while Duke beat them by 27. I know it doesnt necessarily work that way but hard to compare any other way. Plus they barely beat some questionable competition.

Guess I might be looking at this to simply....or trying to make me feel more at ease about getting to saturdays game!

[Kedsy]

After checking out Arizona's schedule this year they lost to every rank team they played.

Well, they beat Texas.

[gw67]

I guess I have a hard time seeing why Duke should have a problem with Arizona. I guess the travel might be an issue...but I am sure Coach K will have a remedy for that one.

Guess I might be looking at this to simply....or trying to make me feel more at ease about getting to saturdays game!

I agree. I think that the Devils will manhandle the Wildcats. There are big differences in numbers of skilled players and size. Arizona will need to bring their 'A' game to keep it close. Now the next round against UConn/SDSU will be a different story, IMO. Both teams are capable of giving the Devils a tough game.

gw67

[millerecu]

Well, they beat Texas.

Sorry....I need to clarify that I was talking about the regular season. However I agree they beat a ranked Texas team last week.

[jipops]

A big question is what kind of foul trouble are our bigs going to accumulate vs. Derrick Williams? The guy gets to the ft line about 8x per game. If we start racking them up early then there will be some big trouble for us. I do expect to have at least a couple big men DQ'd sitting on the bench by the last 5 minutes of the game. How we are able to play defensively with these foul issues may determine whether or not we advance.

[Chitowndevil]

I agree. I think that the Devils will manhandle the Wildcats. There are big differences in numbers of skilled players and size. Arizona will need to bring their 'A' game to keep it close. Now the next round against UConn/SDSU will be a different story, IMO. Both teams are capable of giving the Devils a tough game.

gw67

Two counterpoints to this. First, as I pointed out earlier, Duke has had a substantial size advantage in both NCAA Tournament games and that has worked out very differently. Against Hampton, the Plumlees dominated the game. Against Michigan, the Plumlees were exploited defensively on switches and ended up playing the fewest minutes out of the 8-man rotation Duke employed.

Second, this is a high variance game. Both offenses generate about 30% of their scoring output from the 3 point shot. Here is how the two have fared from 3 point range recently (last 10 games)

Duke
5-20, 9-19, 9-20*, 5-18, 3-15, 6-27**, 7-17, 4-20***, 8-17, 6-16
* ACCT Final, win vs UNC
** Regular season finale, loss @ UNC
*** Loss @ VT

Arizona
8-14, 5-19, 7-21, 8-19, 11-21, 11-25, 5-22*, 4-19**, 6-19***, 11-18
* Win (70-59) vs ORST
** Loss (65-57) @ USC
*** Loss (71-49) @ UCLA

You can really see, in my view, how both teams' fortunes rest on 3 point shooting. Duke shot a combined 26-108, below 25%, from 3 in its four regular season losses, compared to 37.4% on the season. Arizona shot 28-94, below 30%, from 3 in its five losses to Pac-10 teams. Compare this to their incredible 39.9% mark on the season, including 8-14 in their win over Texas and 11-18 in a regular season win vs Washington.

While I agree Duke has the matchup advantage on paper, this is far from a sure thing.

[dukebluesincebirth]

A big question is what kind of foul trouble are our bigs going to accumulate vs. Derrick Williams? The guy gets to the ft line about 8x per game. If we start racking them up early then there will be some big trouble for us. I do expect to have at least a couple big men DQ'd sitting on the bench by the last 5 minutes of the game. How we are able to play defensively with these foul issues may determine whether or not we advance.

This worries me also. I feel like the Plumlees are already prone to picking up quick, cheap fouls and if you add those onto defending Williams, we could be in big foul trouble. I wonder if we're going to send a double team on him in the post? I've never watched him play before the 2nd half of the Texas game, so I don't know how well he passes out of the double team. I'm thinking maybe a double team would cause our bigs to pick up less fouls because they know they have help, no need to bail him out by fouling. If he passes well and hits open shooters for spot-up 3's, we'll have to adjust.

[Reilly]

... so I don't know how well he passes out of the double team....

Before he can pass out of any double team, he has to get the ball. I received this bit of heartening analysis from an Arizona alum/astute observer: "Both Momo Jones and Jordan Mayes are combo guards and I'm afraid there might be tons of turnovers with the pressure that you guys can apply on the perimeter."

[MChambers]

This worries me also. I feel like the Plumlees are already prone to picking up quick, cheap fouls and if you add those onto defending Williams, we could be in big foul trouble.
Although the Plumlees have made some progress in this area, especially Mason, they still foul more than I would like and I agree with you that we could have foul trouble in the post pretty easily. On the other hand, Williams averages 3.6 fouls per 40 minutes, so it's also possible that he could get in foul trouble and have to sit.

If we do have serious foul trouble, of course, we can have Kyle move to the 4 and play Andre and go seriously up tempo on Arizona.

[bird]

Before he can pass out of any double team, he has to get the ball. I received this bit of heartening analysis from an Arizona alum/astute observer: "Both Momo Jones and Jordan Mayes are combo guards and I'm afraid there might be tons of turnovers with the pressure that you guys can apply on the perimeter."

My recollection of K's other big games when the other side sports a single, significant inside talent is to emphasize ball denial rather than double or triple teams. My observation is that ball denial starts with, and is mainly, pressure on the ball on the perimeter, which to me was a major point of emphasis in the Michigan game. The addition of Kyrie to the lineup, at least according to K, significantly improves our ball pressure. My observations over the years leads me to conclude that Duke's ball denial also involves fronting the big man, and ability of help defense to react if fronting is defeated by a quality pass. I have been wondering if it will turn out that Ryan is the main guard on Williams, given his performance against Michigan, his better lateral mobility than the Plums, and Mason's "higher and better" use as a help side defender and shot blocker. My final observation is that Duke has typically played very well against teams with a quality inside player when not matched with good guards. On the other hand, as has been often observed here, guard oriented teams historically are a tougher match up for Duke. AZ may have done Duke a big fat favor by winning its game against TX.

[gam7]

I agree. I think that the Devils will manhandle the Wildcats. There are big differences in numbers of skilled players and size. Arizona will need to bring their 'A' game to keep it close. Now the next round against UConn/SDSU will be a different story, IMO. Both teams are capable of giving the Devils a tough game.

gw67

With respect to size, we have the size advantage on the front line, but Arizona has about 5 guys between 6'5" and 6'7" who see significant minutes, so on the wings, there could be some mismatches that favor Arizona.


A big question is what kind of foul trouble are our bigs going to accumulate vs. Derrick Williams? The guy gets to the ft line about 8x per game. If we start racking them up early then there will be some big trouble for us. I do expect to have at least a couple big men DQ'd sitting on the bench by the last 5 minutes of the game. How we are able to play defensively with these foul issues may determine whether or not we advance.


This worries me also. I feel like the Plumlees are already prone to picking up quick, cheap fouls and if you add those onto defending Williams, we could be in big foul trouble. I wonder if we're going to send a double team on him in the post? I've never watched him play before the 2nd half of the Texas game, so I don't know how well he passes out of the double team. I'm thinking maybe a double team would cause our bigs to pick up less fouls because they know they have help, no need to bail him out by fouling. If he passes well and hits open shooters for spot-up 3's, we'll have to adjust.

In the interview with Coach K yesterday before the team left for Anaheim, his biggest emphasis when discussing Derrick Williams was his ability to get to the free throw line, which in turn gets the whole team to the free throw line (by getting teams into the bonus and double bonus). I fully expect a primary area of emphasis will be to keep him off the foul line. If Williams is able to draw a significant number of fouls against our bigs, it will be a huge breakdown of our game plan. I suspect that our guys will see fewer fouls while defending Williams than he is accustomed to drawing.

I wouldn't be surprised to see our perimeter guys put high pressure on the their perimeter to make entry passes to Williams difficult and then let our bigs try to handle Williams straight up. This would limit their ability to get open 3s, which Arizona has shown they can hit this year.

[whereinthehellami]

In his last 10 games, Williams has 21 fouls total, for 2.1 fouls per game. He did not foul out in any of those games and had 4 fouls twice, one in a loss against USC and the other in a win over Oregon. During those 10 games he also recorded 2 games with 0 fouls.

[COYS]

Before he can pass out of any double team, he has to get the ball. I received this bit of heartening analysis from an Arizona alum/astute observer: "Both Momo Jones and Jordan Mayes are combo guards and I'm afraid there might be tons of turnovers with the pressure that you guys can apply on the perimeter."

I completely agree. Coach K's philosophy on stopping good post players has always been to deny them the ball in the first place. With Kyrie back, we now have another horse we can throw into the race to keep the pressure up on Zona's perimeter players. The more we harass them, the harder it will be for them to get the ball to Williams. In addition, when he does get the ball, he will hopefully have to go get it from a guard around the perimeter and create from there, rather than getting it in a position to score.

[Saratoga2]

I guess I have a hard time seeing why Duke should have a problem with Arizona. I guess the travel might be an issue...but I am sure Coach K will have a remedy for that one.

After checking out Arizona's schedule this year they lost to every rank team they played. We played two of the same opponents...NCSU they beat by 10 while Duke beat them by 14 and 24....Oregon they beat by 19 and 8 while Duke beat them by 27. I know it doesnt necessarily work that way but hard to compare any other way. Plus they barely beat some questionable competition.

Guess I might be looking at this to simply....or trying to make me feel more at ease about getting to saturdays game!

They just beat a good Texas team so should be considered dangerous.

[MChambers]

According to Luke Winn, Arizona has the best performance of the Sweet 16 teams after a time out. Duke is not far behind. UConn and UNC are the worst, interestingly.

http://tourney.si.com/2011/03/23/power-rankings-the-sweet-sixteen/?eref=sihp

[sagegrouse]

In the interview with Coach K yesterday before the team left for Anaheim, his biggest emphasis when discussing Derrick Williams was his ability to get to the free throw line, which in turn gets the whole team to the free throw line (by getting teams into the bonus and double bonus). I fully expect a primary area of emphasis will be to keep him off the foul line. If Williams is able to draw a significant number of fouls against our bigs, it will be a huge breakdown of our game plan. I suspect that our guys will see fewer fouls while defending Williams than he is accustomed to drawing.

I wouldn't be surprised to see our perimeter guys put high pressure on the their perimeter to make entry passes to Williams difficult and then let our bigs try to handle Williams straight up. This would limit their ability to get open 3s, which Arizona has shown they can hit this year.

At least one mock draft (http://www.nbadraft.net/2011mock_draft)shows Derrick Williams going first overall, ahead of Kyrie, Kanter, Sullinger, and Barnes. Another, mynbadraft.com, has him at #4 behind Kyrie, Perry Jones, Sullinger and ahead of Barnes.

To be brutally honest, I didn't know anything about Derrick until I watched the Texas game and began to prepare my Q's for the thread.

I would like to believe Mr. Williams will be seeing dollar-signs and not particularly interested in the game. I really believe, however, he will be fired up. Texas controlled him with its size and strength on the inside (4-15 from the floor, but 8-15 FTs). I think Derrick will be out to have a big game against Duke. In this case, the play of the Plumees will be crucial to the outcome.

sagegrouse

[Billy Dat]

I know we've talked about it in other old threads, but ESPN's John Hollinger started publishing his PER calculations for NCAAB players this year. If you are unfamiliar with Hollinger, he is basically the only NBA advanced stats geek not employed by an NBA front office. He invented the PER which is the following (from Wikipedia:

"The Player Efficiency Rating is ESPN Insider writer John Hollinger's all-in-one basketball rating, which attempts to boil down all of a player's contributions into one number. Using a detailed formula, Hollinger developed a system that rates every player's statistical performance. PER takes into account positive accomplishments, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the team's pace. In the end, one number sums up the players' statistical accomplishments for that season.
PER largely measures offensive performance. Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporates -- blocks and steals -- can produce a distorted picture of a player's value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a player's defensive acumen. Neither PER nor per-game statistics take into account such intangible elements as competitive drive, leadership, durability, conditioning, hustle, or WIM (wanting it more), largely because there is no real way to quantitatively measure these things. In addition, some have argued that PER gives undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes, or against a team's second unit, and it undervalues players who have enough diversity in their game to play starter's minutes.Lastly, PER rewards inefficient shooting."

Sorry for the tome, I just thought it was worth having the definition and some criticism in one place. All that being said, Williams is currently sporting the 3rd highest PER in Division 1. Just another way to say that he's a real handful, and if he drifts a lot, it doesn't show up in PER.

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/hollinger/statistics

Nolan comes in at 52nd in the country.

[BluDvlsN1]

At least one mock draft (http://www.nbadraft.net/2011mock_draft)shows Derrick Williams going first overall, ahead of Kyrie, Kanter, Sullinger, and Barnes. Another, mynbadraft.com, has him at #4 behind Kyrie, Perry Jones, Sullinger and ahead of Barnes.

To be brutally honest, I didn't know anything about Derrick until I watched the Texas game and began to prepare my Q's for the thread.

I would like to believe Mr. Williams will be seeing dollar-signs and not particularly interested in the game. I really believe, however, he will be fired up. Texas controlled him with its size and strength on the inside (4-15 from the floor, but 8-15 FTs). I think Derrick will be out to have a big game against Duke. In this case, the play of the Plumees will be crucial to the outcome.

sagegrouse

IMO, this is THE big key for us, it's very frustrating to see the fouls, moving screens reach ins from the Plum's 20 to 30 ft from the basket, and the reach in fouls in the post! They have really improved in this area of late, and it's been clear to see when they have shown restraint! If they will just get and stay in a solid defensive posture and move their feet to defend, it will bode well for game outcome!

I really believe in Kyle, he is just a great competitor and leader(by example), personally,he has been contributing so much on the defensive end, loose balls etc, that I personally believe has contributed to his offense suffering some! I believe he will (as always) make solid contributions to a good outcome, and many don't show up always in the stat sheet!

The guards and Ryan have been discussed at length, we're in great shape there, particularly was impressed with Kyrie's explanation on what he plans to to to integrate and play with Nolan, How lucky are we to have "that set of problems"..
Seth and Andre are great shooters and their gonna do what great shooters do!!

I really like Ryan's game, he's smart, in the right place, he finishes inside and out!!

How much fun is this for our team?
As for me, I just found out that I will be fortunate enough to see it in person and very much looking forward to it! I hope we can make enough noise to a small degree at least replicate the "crazies"... I hope the band and enough students and fans show up to do the 'Every time we touch" song and rock that place!
Saw it on Senior night, those kids were havin a blast!

(not senior nite, but, you'll get the idea)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC4Rp9B4S08


Let's go Duke!!

[MaxAMillion]

I expect we will have the same problems with D. Williams that we had with Jordan Williams. J. Williams killed Duke on the boards and was effective in the paint as well as drawing fouls and getting to the line. I don't know why things will be different against Arizona. Hopefully Duke ultimately wins the game which is all that matters.

[dukelifer]

I expect we will have the same problems with D. Williams that we had with Jordan Williams. J. Williams killed Duke on the boards and was effective in the paint as well as drawing fouls and getting to the line. I don't know why things will be different against Arizona. Hopefully Duke ultimately wins the game which is all that matters.
And his team still lost all three games. If he gets his points and Duke stops the others- Duke will win.

[Faison1]

I like how Mason mentioned in his interview that they were game-planning for Williams.

[MaxAMillion]

And his team still lost all three games. If he gets his points and Duke stops the others- Duke will win.

Hopefully so, but I think the Arizona supporting cast is better than the MD supporting cast. Which means we are probably looking at another close game rather than a 9-10 point win (whatever the spread is).

[watzone]

Practice videos from this afternoon in Anaheim - http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/03/duke-in-anaheim-practice-videos/

Singler, Miles and Andre video interviews from Cali - http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/03/more-from-anaheim-video-interviews-with-kyle-singler-miles-plumlee-and-andre-dawkins/

[dukelifer]

Practice videos from this afternoon in Anaheim - http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/03/duke-in-anaheim-practice-videos/

Singler, Miles and Andre video interviews from Cali - http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/03/more-from-anaheim-video-interviews-with-kyle-singler-miles-plumlee-and-andre-dawkins/

If I am not mistaken, it looks like K is going to bring Wojo off the bench to play point. No way Arizona has prepared for that ;)

[Chris Randolph]

Watched practice footage from AZ and Duke's practices. Not a whole lot of video but it was interesting to me how the 2 styles differed. AZ was very laid back in their shooting drills, walking around/laughing/chattin with coaches/manager. Whereas Duke was all business. I'm not saying one way is better than the other or that the videos are indicative of how each team will perform but I hope Duke is all business come tomorrow night. AZ might just be happy to be there!

Lets Go Duke!

[Chard]

Thanks for the vids, Watzone. The practice videos are great!

[DWINS]

Hi guys. Although this is my first ever post on DBR, I've actually been here many times over the last seven or eight years. Reilly, a Duke fan and member of this site, told me that this was by far the best Duke fan board. I can say without a doubt that he is correct. There seem to be less jerks here and more actual basketball discussion than on other sites. I rarely ever post on any site anymore because of the lack of tolerance shown to anyone that has a different opinion from the masses.

OK, rant over. Lets talk about the game. If anyone has any questions about Arizona I'll try to provide some answers. I'm not working today so I'll be checking in frequently.

The biggest question mark I have is whether our guards can deal with the intense pressure that Duke usually puts on the perimeter. We don't have a true point guard on the team. Both Momo Jones and Jordan Mayes are combo guards. If they start turning the ball over, the game can get out of hand quickly. How does Sean Miller combat this? One way would be to run the offense through Solomon Hill. He is our best passer and an excellent slasher and driver. He can drive into the paint and force Duke to play help defense, but where does the help come from? If a big helps, then Hill drops the ball off to Derrick Williams. If a perimeter player helps, then Hill kicks it out for a three. How does coach K combat this? I wouldn't allow our guards to bring the ball into the front court and then hand off to Hill. This means pressing full court which I think is a pretty good way to play us anyway. The onus is then on Sean Miller to adjust to that and the chess game continues.

Coaching wise, K takes a back seat to no one, but Miller seems to be the real deal. If there is an edge to K, it should only be a small one (hopefully :))

I think that Arizona will have to brings its "A" game to have any chance, especially now that Irving is available. The only two areas I see where Arizona has the advantage is depth and the crowd. I've read where some people think that the crowd won't be an advantage to Arizona, but I totally disagree. Anaheim is right in the middle of Pac-10 country. The crowd will be 95%+ pro-Arizona. It will most likely be a road game for Duke. How much the crowd is worth I don't know.

This post is getting long enough so I'll sign off for now, but I might post a little more tonight as things occur to me.

Lets hope for an entertaining and injury free game.

[Ultrarunner]

You need to practice ranting. :) Nice post though and I think you'll find everybody hospitable.

Ditto on the injury free and entertaining.

Please note that we may define "entertaining" a bit differently than a Wildcat fan. :D

[tieguy]

My question (an honest question, not having looked at the AZ stats) is who does Williams pass to if (likely when) he gets doubled? Basketball Prospectus raised this question without answering it earlier today, and I wonder if you've got an answer.

~tieguy (glad you've braved a trip over here)

[Bojangles4Eva]

One way to combat that type of offense is in the fact that K has used it a number of times ('01 was one of the best) and I'm sure he is familiar with defensive tactics to hinder it. Now what those might be exactly I don't know, I'll let someone else type that...

[DWINS]

Thanks for the kind welcome.

As far as three-point shooting goes, we play 10 guys so it depends on who is on the floor, but Jordin Mayes (.463), Kevin Parrom (.416), and Jamelle Horne (.402) have the best percentages of the players that attempt the most. Kyle Fogg actually shoots the most and is hitting .353 of those. Mayes is on fire and has connected on his last nine threes. Momo Jones is at .321 and Brendon Lavender is at .382 although his minutes are shrinking.

[throatybeard]

I used to post a little bit on what I perceived as the main Arizona board. I got lots of emails from them. I think this ceased when Duke finally euthanized my @duke.edu account after about a sixteen-year run.

I am rather concerned about the Arizona/SDSU dynamic to the crowd. I guess I shouldn't be after Baylor and Butler last year, but it's instinctive.

[DukeCrow]

In case you're interested in watching Wednesday's press conference.

http://www.ncaa.com/menshighlights/?c=turner_mmod_mens_playlists&p=513616&s=5081029&i=909777

[ricks68]

Thanks for the kind welcome.

As far as three-point shooting goes, we play 10 guys so it depends on who is on the floor, but Jordin Mayes (.463), Kevin Parrom (.416), and Jamelle Horne (.402) have the best percentages of the players that attempt the most. Kyle Fogg actually shoots the most and is hitting .353 of those. Mayes is on fire and has connected on his last nine threes. Momo Jones is at .321 and Brendon Lavender is at .382 although his minutes are shrinking.

Thanks so much for your input. I haven't followed AZ very much this year so your insight is very helpful. I have heard about the AZ 3 point shooting, but had no idea it was this good. My questions to all would be: "How do you defend the 3 point shot without giving up an easy pass and bucket to the very talented AZ big man at the same time?" Then I want to ask: "How do you defend the 3 point shot from so many excellent shooters?"

ricks

[wowzap]

Hey Dukies- I have been watching AZ bball for years and just want to remind you that this years AZ team is a solid 10 person team, much more then williams. They have 10 players average over 10 minutes a game, and often times their subs score >25% of their points. In the first half of the texas game, the two leading scorers (jones and williams) were o-fer, and the cats still led by 11 points! Texas slowly climbed back into the game in the second half, but williams stepped up at the end to make the three point play for the win. Williams lets the game come to him, and seems to know when the team needs a block or key bucket. Duke's strength is their defensive pressure and guard skill, and I believe the only chance Duke has to lose this game is for their focus to remain too centered on controlling williams. AZ led the pac-10 in 3 point % (40) and have a back-up guard (mayes)who is 8-8 from distance in the tourney. When opposing teams double team or trap williams he often can get it out to an open teammate for a three. Texas was not prepared to deal with our whole team and gave us many open threes while stacking the inside to stop williams. Our other bigs are also talented, but may not show up on the stat sheets. Our ukrainian 7 footer (natyachko)hardly ever scores, but his defense on Texas was a big reason we were able to keep them down for so long. Hill had 16 points and was hot while Texas over committed to covering williams. AZ has had a dream season, being picked no higher then 4th in the Pac-10 this year, and will likely struggle against Duke. I just want a competitive game and think the dukies will be challenged tomorrow.

[DukieTiger]

Thanks so much for your input. I haven't followed AZ very much this year so your insight is very helpful. I have heard about the AZ 3 point shooting, but had no idea it was this good. My questions to all would be: "How do you defend the 3 point shot without giving up an easy pass and bucket to the very talented AZ big man at the same time?" Then I want to ask: "How do you defend the 3 point shot from so many excellent shooters?"

ricks

They can't shoot it if they can't hold possession. That's where it would start for me. Duke's gotta put pressure on those guards and force some turnovers in this game. Not only will it reduce their number of possessions, but it would prevent those shooters from getting into any kind of a good offensive rhythm, if Duke can really bother them with its pressure on defense.

[wowzap]

Duke need not worry too much. We do lack a skilled point guard and most of our guard play can be erratic, with frequent sloppy passes and bad in-bounding decisions. The major problem for Duke will be if they over emphasize stopping Williams. Texas tried the williams focused attack and it worked for a half. But because AZ has a skilled 10 man rotation with some potent three point specialists, despite willaims and jones having an o-fer in the first half, AZ still led by 11 points!

[burns15]

Duke need not worry too much. We do lack a skilled point guard and most of our guard play can be erratic, with frequent sloppy passes and bad in-bounding decisions. The major problem for Duke will be if they over emphasize stopping Williams. Texas tried the williams focused attack and it worked for a half. But because AZ has a skilled 10 man rotation with some potent three point specialists, despite willaims and jones having an o-fer in the first half, AZ still led by 11 points!

I would not be surprised to see Duke attempt to nullify Arizona's three-point shooting strength by emphasizing the perimeter on defense, and then matching up Kyle or Ryan with Derrick Williams and basically letting Williams get his.

I know we have used this strategy many times in the past, most memorably in my mind, against Hansbrough at UNC a couple of times. Our goal was to take away lawson's drive, and ellington and green's three point shot, and basically park Shelden in the block with Hansbrough and tell everyone else to not help on Hansbrough. In effect, hopefully Shelden can do a good job on him, but if not, "let him get his" and take away the effectiveness of the rest of the team.

My thoughts behind this are that, barring a legendary defensive performance by Kyle or Ryan, Williams is still going to score between 10 and 15 points, even if you make him your defensive focus. But the danger is if a couple of Arizona's perimeter players start scoring because it diversifies the Cat's offensive attack, and more than likely provides three pointers

[BlueHeaven]

If I am not mistaken, it looks like K is going to bring Wojo off the bench to play point. No way Arizona has prepared for that ;)

That made me spit my coffee out it was so funny. I couldn't sleep I'm so excited. Let's go Duke.

[cbnaylor]

I would not be surprised to see Duke attempt to nullify Arizona's three-point shooting strength by emphasizing the perimeter on defense, and then matching up Kyle or Ryan with Derrick Williams and basically letting Williams get his.

Good insight Burns. If Arizona's 3pt shooters are as good as their stats say, I think I would do the same thing. I would put Kyle or Ryan on Williams and let Smith, Dawkins, and Curry take care of the shooters. If we can apply enough pressure, we can probably prevent the ball even getting to Williams because of Arizona's shaky guards.

[OldPhiKap]

Thanks DWINS, Wowzap and others with your insights (and please come back if you're just popping in for this game).

Arizona poses a real challenge on the court. I am not so worried about the crowd -- the game we played against KState earlier this year should have us ready, as should games at Maryland and others this season. Let alone, as some suggested earlier, Baylor in Houston and Butler in Indy last year.

Zona seems to be very balanced, well-coached, and has its AA candidate down low. We should have an advantage in the backcourt, and could really get on a roll if some of the outside shots start dropping. Having said that, though, I hope we start pounding it inside like we did in the ACC tourney.

Really curious to see the wrinkles K has worked on over the last few days, both with Kyrie and with the bigs down low.

As K has said for most of the season, the big difference-maker is Nolan's pressure at the point. That should again be key, and now we can also throw Kyrie into that role (plus Seth and Andre, who have both had very strong efforts in that regard). Please, Mason and Miles, no fouls 25 feet from the basket on your hedges!!

LET'S GO DUKE!!!!

[davekay1971]

Arizona has that inside-outside combination that can really be trouble, especially if those 3 point shooters are on. I suspect we'll see Williams largely played 1 on 1 with our perimeter defenders doing their usual good job defending the 3 point line. This is a game where, having Kyrie back, could really help us on the defensive end. He and Nolan are both excellent on-ball defenders, and Seth has become very good as well. If those guys can prevent penetration and the subsequent defensive breakdowns that would leave 'Zona open for good 3 point looks, and Williams open for in-the-paint finishes, we should do all right.

I'm nervous about the game...but then I'm always a basket case for Duke games in March.

[dukeballboy88]

Honestly, I would have rather played Texas. K owns Barnes and Barnes has proven of the years he will choke one away. This Sean Miller cat, I think is hungry and he is an up and coming star in the college game. I still think Duke wins but the 8.5 I think is to high.

From what I read, NC State fans think Miller will be their next coach!

[gam7]

This Sean Miller cat, I think is hungry and he is an up and coming star in the college game.



When a guy has the Arizona job, I would say that he has arrived.

[superdave]

As K has said for most of the season, the big difference-maker is Nolan's pressure at the point. That should again be key, and now we can also throw Kyrie into that role (plus Seth and Andre, who have both had very strong efforts in that regard). Please, Mason and Miles, no fouls 25 feet from the basket on your hedges!!

LET'S GO DUKE!!!!

I really like the idea of pressuring the ball. It will make feeding the post and creating drive-kick opportunities much more difficult for Arizona. Both Nolan and Seth are very good ball-defenders, and Kyle is capable of participating in switches as well.

I hope to see Nolan hound the ball from the start the same way he did against Marshall in the ACCT. Remember that Marshall was summoned to the bench after 3-4 minutes and they mvoed Dexter to the point. Advantage: good guys.

This game is all about bringing the defensive pressure early and often!

[Billy Dat]

I am not sure if it's because they blew the lead against Michigan, or because Duke is such a familiar set of players due to last year's title, but very little coverage of the game is focused on the assets that got us here, namely:

-Nolan's POY caliber season
-Everything Kyle does outside of shooting 3s
-The development of everyone else

Instead, everything I read is about Williams and Kyrie...and I couldn't be happier about it. Let us keep flying under the radar. Obviously, Coach Miller isn't overlooking us, but I think playing in Anaheim actually works in our favor because so many Arizona players are from the LA area that you know they are going to have to deal with a lot more ticket requests, friends wanting to see them in person, etc. I like that Arizona practiced in Williams' high school gym...any kind of distraction is welcomed! Plus, suddenly there is no way that Singler can guard Williams? Really? I am not saying Kyle can shut him down, but I think that Kyle's 3 point shooting struggles have really overshadowed his stellar all around game, a lot of which revolves around defense.

[Chard]

This match up against Arizona reminds me of the ACC Big Ten Challenge match up with Indiana back in I think 2006. Great big man, good shooters, not the greatest ball handling. Oh, and home court. :)

[Bob Green]

The major problem for Duke will be if they over emphasize stopping Williams.

I would be shocked if this happens. Coach K is a master at game preparation and this season we've defeated Maryland (Jordan Williams) twice and Miami (Reggie Johnson) twice. Duke's defensive game plan will start with on ball pressure and denial of the entry pass. A secondary objective will be to contain Williams and I emphasize contain. Williams is going to get his points so Duke just needs to ensure he doesn't have a career day. Derrick Williams is not the first quality big man we have faced this season.

On offense, Smith and Irving need to penetrate and pass as good ball movement will result in open looks. Arizona's 2 point fg defense is a weakness so we need to attack inside the 3 point line with Singler on curls and Kelly shooting the 12-18 foot jumper. Interior passing could be a key tonight. Curry and Dawkins are going to take some 3 pointers so we need them to go down at an acceptable rate but I'd really like to see those two work the baseline for short jumpers or open backdoor cuts. While it will not be a primary option, dumping the ball into Mason and Miles for jump hooks could result in a foul or two on Williams as could Smith and Irving taking the ball to the rim.

It's the Sweet Sixteen and I'm excited.

[wowzap]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009.

3 years they lost to a 5 seed. (2000 florida, 2002 indiana, 2005 michigan state)

Can Duke be had? Just asked Michigan. Almost...

However, if you strip away these 6 losses, Duke (coach K) has a NCAA win pct of .832. Wooden has .825 win pct. Unbelievable.

Should be a great game, probably not going to be a 8-10 point Duke win.

Go wildcats!

[OldPhiKap]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009.

3 years they lost to a 5 seed. (2000 florida, 2002 indiana, 2005 michigan state)

Can Duke be had? Just asked Michigan. Almost...

However, if you strip away these 6 losses, Duke (coach K) has a NCAA win pct of .832. Wooden has .825 win pct. Unbelievable.

Should be a great game, probably not going to be a 8-10 point Duke win.

Go wildcats!

Jason Williams picked up his fifth foul in our championship game against you, but we get all the calls so they let him play on.

Life is good.

[Kfanarmy]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

WOW Duke has made it to an awful lot of sweet 16s.

[Neals384]

Kyle's brothewr E. J. was 4 of 7 from downtown last night for the Oregon Ducks in their CBI semi-final win. Let's hope some of that shooting touch rubs off on big bro tonight!

[NashvilleDevil]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009.

3 years they lost to a 5 seed. (2000 florida, 2002 indiana, 2005 michigan state)

Can Duke be had? Just asked Michigan. Almost...

However, if you strip away these 6 losses, Duke (coach K) has a NCAA win pct of .832. Wooden has .825 win pct. Unbelievable.

Should be a great game, probably not going to be a 8-10 point Duke win.

Go wildcats!

This century Duke has won the the most titles (2) sharing that distinction with Florida and North Carolina.

[OldPhiKap]

Heh. Heh. The last name of Arizona's woman's basketball coach is "Butts." Heh. Heh.

[wilson]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009.

3 years they lost to a 5 seed. (2000 florida, 2002 indiana, 2005 michigan state)

Can Duke be had? Just asked Michigan. Almost...

However, if you strip away these 6 losses, Duke (coach K) has a NCAA win pct of .832. Wooden has .825 win pct. Unbelievable.

Should be a great game, probably not going to be a 8-10 point Duke win.

Go wildcats!I think you're right that it's "probably not going to be a[n] 8-10 point Duke win" tonight. However, it has nothing to do with recent past performance.
As for losing in the Sweet 16, you have to get there a bunch of times before you can lose there a bunch of times. Add in the three times since 2000 when we have not lost in the Sweet 16, and we have nine appearances there in the past 12 seasons. Your team's website (http://www.arizonawildcats.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/032311aac.html), in contrast, is currently celebrating "the magical Wildcat ride" into the Sweet 16, the 14th such appearance in school history. Duke has been to 14 Sweet 16s since 1992. Most of us fully expect your team to compete admirably tonight, and maybe even beat us, but if you're looking for an edge or trying to find some sort of worthy criticism of our team and program, you're barking up the wrong tree.

[wowzap]

WOW Duke has made it to an awful lot of sweet 16s.

While Duke has 19-20 sweet 16 appearances in the past quarter century, AZ has 15. Yes zona fans are envious of coach K's persistence in college elite, we have a decent tradition, begun by Lute Olson, and hopefully picked up by Sean Miller.

While Duke gets to sweet 16 often, they LOSE often at this location, frequently to a number 5 seed.

Go cats.

[tendev]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009.

3 years they lost to a 5 seed. (2000 florida, 2002 indiana, 2005 michigan state)

Can Duke be had? Just asked Michigan. Almost...

However, if you strip away these 6 losses, Duke (coach K) has a NCAA win pct of .832. Wooden has .825 win pct. Unbelievable.

Should be a great game, probably not going to be a 8-10 point Duke win.

Go wildcats!

I don't want to bust your statistical bubble, Wowzap, but, of course, since Duke has played so many Sweet 16 games this century in Mens BB, maybe more than any other team, then it stands to reason that they have lost more. Note: I am excluding UConn women who have played and won more Sweet 16 games this century, I gather.

I suggest that the probability of a Duke win or loss tonight is not at all dependent upon Duke's past results in the Sweet 16. The winner will be determined entirely by the present day players and how they perform on the court. Unless, of course, you think Arizona will be intimidated by Duke's history.

[wilson]

While Duke has 19-20 sweet 16 appearances in the past quarter century, AZ has 15.Try again (http://www.getlisty.com/preview/most-sweet-16-appearances/). Arizona has been to the Sweet 16 12 times in the last 35 years.

[94duke]

I would be shocked if this happens. Coach K is a master at game preparation and this season we've defeated Maryland (Jordan Williams) twice and Miami (Reggie Johnson) twice. Duke's defensive game plan will start with on ball pressure and denial of the entry pass. A secondary objective will be to contain Williams and I emphasize contain. Williams is going to get his points so Duke just needs to ensure he doesn't have a career day. Derrick Williams is not the first quality big man we have faced this season.

On offense, Smith and Irving need to penetrate and pass as good ball movement will result in open looks. Arizona's 2 point fg defense is a weakness so we need to attack inside the 3 point line with Singler on curls and Kelly shooting the 12-18 foot jumper. Interior passing could be a key tonight. Curry and Dawkins are going to take some 3 pointers so we need them to go down at an acceptable rate but I'd really like to see those two work the baseline for short jumpers or open backdoor cuts. While it will not be a primary option, dumping the ball into Mason and Miles for jump hooks could result in a foul or two on Williams as could Smith and Irving taking the ball to the rim.

It's the Sweet Sixteen and I'm excited.

I would like to add the following:
Do NOT foul. Williams got over half of his points (9 out of 17 pts) against Texas from FT's. He was 9-9 FT against Memphis.
Defend hard. I'm sure we'll do some double-teaming. But do not foul.

[wowzap]

Most of us fully expect your team to compete admirably tonight, and maybe even beat us, but if you're looking for an edge or trying to find some sort of worthy criticism of our team and program, you're barking up the wrong tree.

No criticism of Duke implied. AZ has its embarrassing losses as a highly ranked team over the past 25 years as well. I am just amped up for this battle, and hopeful my cats can stay focused under Duke's tremendous defensive pressure and hit a few shots and limit turnovers.

The closest game we have had to Duke style of attack is UW, and we didn't preform too well against the huskies, losing 2 0f 3. If we can make tight passes, and avoid foul trouble on Williams (big IFS), we have a chance.

[OldPhiKap]

The closest game we have had to Duke style of attack is UW, and we didn't preform too well against the huskies, losing 2 0f 3. If we can make tight passes, and avoid foul trouble on Williams (big IFS), we have a chance.

I know that Williams gets to the line a bunch, but was unaware of any problems with him staying in the game. I imagine we will try to drive in the lane or catch him on a switch, then try to draw the foul.

I think the closest to AZ in terms of make-up we've played is Maryland, with an exeptional big man and young guards. They run a flex offense, though, which may not relate to anything y'all run (I don't know).

Should be a great game.

[wowzap]

Try again (http://www.getlisty.com/preview/most-sweet-16-appearances/). Arizona has been to the Sweet 16 12 times in the last 35 years.

My bad- AZ has 14 sweet 16 appearances compared to Duke's 20. I'm sure our numbers would be better if Olson had stayed around and provided the same stability you have enjoyed under coach K.

The past is meaningless here though, lets just enjoy this game and root hard for our teams!

[Indoor66]

My bad- AZ has 14 sweet 16 appearances compared to Duke's 20. I'm sure our numbers would be better if Olson had stayed around and provided the same stability you have enjoyed under coach K.

The past is meaningless here though, lets just enjoy this game and root hard for our teams!

Dern, that if word jumps up again!

[J4Kop99]

I get so damn nervous before a game like this. I think that's a good thing though.

[The Gordog]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009.

3 years they lost to a 5 seed. (2000 florida, 2002 indiana, 2005 michigan state)

Can Duke be had? Just asked Michigan. Almost...

However, if you strip away these 6 losses, Duke (coach K) has a NCAA win pct of .832. Wooden has .825 win pct. Unbelievable.

Should be a great game, probably not going to be a 8-10 point Duke win.

Go wildcats!

This is K's 20th trip to a Regional Semifinal according to GoDuke.com. http://www.goduke.com/ (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&ATCLID=205120547&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

However, by my count, he has won 12 of 19 so far ('10, '04, '01, '99, '98, '94, '92, '91, '90, '89, '88, '86.) I'd say that record stacks up pretty well compared to anybody in the modern (64+ team) era.

[DWINS]

It seems like the prevailing opinion on this board is that Duke will guard Derrick Williams straight up and rely on perimeter ball pressure to deny him the ball. This will be very interesting. I have yet to see anyone who can handle DW one on one, but I don't think U of A has seen the intense ball pressure that Duke will bring. If Duke can successfully pull this off than I think that U of A has no shot. However, that is a big if. My feeling is that eventually Coach K will have to double the post. We shall see.

[OldPhiKap]

It seems like the prevailing opinion on this board is that Duke will guard Derrick Williams straight up and rely on perimeter ball pressure to deny him the ball. This will be very interesting. I have yet to see anyone who can handle DW one on one, but I don't think U of A has seen the intense ball pressure that Duke will bring. If Duke can successfully pull this off than I think that U of A has no shot. However, that is a big if. My feeling is that eventually Coach K will have to double the post. We shall see.

Not sure how we double much w/o serious foul problems and putting him on the line. I think K will "give" DW 20 points if it means that there are no more than a handful of made three pointers. But ball pressure and overplaying passing lanes is what K has done for 30 years and I doubt we go far from that. The key stat tonight may well be the # of turnovers we can force on AZ -- low number is trouble, high number gives us a bunch of extra possessions.

[NYBri]

I don't want DW going to the line a bucket of times...not because he'll get his points, which I think he will, but because it puts the rest of the team in the bonus earlier.

If DW is going to rack up 20, let him do it with from the floor, not the line.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't want DW going to the line a bucket of times...not because he'll get his points, which I think he will, but because it puts the rest of the team in the bonus earlier.

If DW is going to rack up 20, let him do it with from the floor, not the line.

Yup. Agreed 100%.

[wilson]

But ball pressure and overplaying passing lanes is what K has done for 30 years and I doubt we go far from that. The key stat tonight may well be the # of turnovers we can force on AZ -- low number is trouble, high number gives us a bunch of extra possessions.Totally agreed. Especially when Arizona fans and observers themselves have admitted that a) Ballhandling under pressure is a potential problem area for their team, and b) they rely pretty heavily on the three-point arc for a chunk of their scoring, I don't see why we'd collapse the D around one player and allow open looks around the perimeter. Also, as OPK and others have rightly noted, we've been perfectly content over the years to allow certain players (especially post players) to have pretty big individual games against us, while bottling up their teammates. I think that in particular our recent gameplans against Maryland provide some insight into what we'll see on the defensive end tonight:
Jan 9, CIS: Jordan Williams 23 pts, 13 rebs, 10-17 shooting (58.8%); other Twerps 16-49 shooting (32.7%), 41 pts, 3-14 3-point shooting (21.4%), 13 turnovers
Feb 2, Comcast Ctr: Jordan Williams 20 pts, 10 rebs, 4-7 shooting (57.2%) and 12-16 on FTS; other Twerps 16-43 shooting (37.2%), 42 pts, 2-9 3-point shooting (22.2%), 8 turnovers
March 11, ACC Tournament: Jordan Williams 16 pts, 16 rebs, 7-13 shooting (53.8%); other Twerps 19-45 shooting (42.2%), 55 points, 4-8 3-point shooting (50%), 11 turnovers

The ACC Tournament performance was not quite as impressive defensively as the other two, but again we made them work hard on offense to get points. Of particular note is Maryland's strong 50% performance from behind the arc, but our defense limited them to only 8 attempts.
I was surprised that the turnover numbers weren't higher, as Maryland like Arizona lacks a true point. However, I find this encouraging with regard to our chances tonight, as it would seem to indicate that we don't need to turn Arizona over a whole lot in order to impose a general lockdown defensive performance upon them.
If we can coax similar numbers to the above out of Arizona this evening, I will be quite confident in our chances to win.

[DukeWarhead]

This great season can't end tonight, fellas. Not tonight. Not on a Thursday. Play hard, play smart, play together. Go Duke!

[UrinalCake]

Here's a great read (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2011/news/story?id=6253110) on the 2001 title game, from the perspective of Jay Williams, an Arizona reserve player, and two sportswriters. However tonight's game turns out, let's hope it is remembered for the quality of play and not for the officiating.

[wilson]

...let's hope it is remembered...not for the officiating.These days, this seems like mostly a pipe dream for any of our games, regardless of opponent or circumstances. I've pretty well given up on this perspective. I just want the boys to win.

[NYBri]

This great season can't end tonight, fellas. Not tonight. Not on a Thursday. Play hard, play smart, play together. Go Duke!

I'm nervous about this one. I go from confident to abject terror. Never been the schizoid about a game. Even last year's Butler game.

Although I was nervous about the ACCT game and look how that turned out.

Ah, well...nothing else left to say in the pre-game...let's tip it off and win this one!

[RockyMtDevil]

I'm anxious to see if Kyrie has any additional explosion from his legs. While he played more than admirably last week, one noticed that he was a step or so slow and didn't have the bounce or strength to get all the way to the tin. Let's see if another 3 days of practice will help that out.

Should be a very tight game, I don't have a clue how to call this one. Especially after I thought we would beat Michigan by 20...And, wow that didn't happen.

[dukestheheat]

Just a few facts for you dukies;

Duke has lost more sweet 16 games this century than any other school in division I, II, III, mens or womens teams.

2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009.

3 years they lost to a 5 seed. (2000 florida, 2002 indiana, 2005 michigan state)

Can Duke be had? Just asked Michigan. Almost...

However, if you strip away these 6 losses, Duke (coach K) has a NCAA win pct of .832. Wooden has .825 win pct. Unbelievable.

Should be a great game, probably not going to be a 8-10 point Duke win.

Go wildcats!

I don't appreciate you calling out Duke as the 'Biggest Loser' in your post in this thread.

It stands that if you have more chances at playing, you have more chances at winning or losing. Duke has played A LOT in the NCAAs over the last 25 years. It is truly better to play and lose than to not have the chance to play at all. With all this program has learned over the last 25 years in the NCAA tournament, we'd all have to say that we've built upon it and have learned how to turn a few losses into lemonade.

Thank you and enjoy the game tonight.

dukestheheat

[superdave]

I'm anxious to see if Kyrie has any additional explosion from his legs. While he played more than admirably last week, one noticed that he was a step or so slow and didn't have the bounce or strength to get all the way to the tin. Let's see if another 3 days of practice will help that out.

Should be a very tight game, I don't have a clue how to call this one. Especially after I thought we would beat Michigan by 20...And, wow that didn't happen.

I noticed lack of explosiveness and general quickness as well. I dont think much he's done the past month can simulate what it takes to react to an offensive player or to make certain cuts. The best way to address this is probably to keep his runs to 3-4 minutes then a break. It probably hurts him a little more on the defensive end than anything.

[Kewlswim]

I don't appreciate you calling out Duke as the 'Biggest Loser' in your post in this thread.

It stands that if you have more chances at playing, you have more chances at winning or losing. Duke has played A LOT in the NCAAs over the last 25 years. It is truly better to play and lose than to not have the chance to play at all. With all this program has learned over the last 25 years in the NCAA tournament, we'd all have to say that we've built upon it and have learned how to turn a few losses into lemonade.

Thank you and enjoy the game tonight.

dukestheheat

Hi,

I think the title "Biggest Loser" was a "pun" on the television show and not necessarily trying to be mean or antagonistic. Perhaps I have misread and put too much "niceness" into the post.

Sure, the Devils have been to a lot of Sweet 16 games . They have won a lot of these games too! Coach K says that past experience is not indicative of future results. This is a new team. The Devils aren't defending anything, for example, he often says the Devils are, "Pursing another championship."

I think we are nervous because the Wildcats seem like a St. Johns or maybe a Florida State who gave Duke problems this year. However, the Michigan team matched up really well against us (taking poetic license, I know I am not on the team or even at the stadium tonight) and played a system that gave all the "big boys" trouble just ask Kansas and the Ohio State University. I am not sure that the Wildcats have put that kind of fear into teams such as Kansas, et all. I am nervous, I am nervous before every tournament game.

GO DUKE!

[Les Grossman]

Hopefully the players don't feel the same way. Wish we had the early game. Win or lose, I'll be up with an elevated heartbeat well past midnight for this one.

[duke96]

If anyone has figured out a way to make time not pass agonizingly slowly as the game approaches, suggestions would be appreciated.

I guess watching Connecticut and/or Florida get smacked down would be an ideal way to while away the final two hours, if it should somehow come to pass...

[Indoor66]

If anyone has figured out a way to make time not pass agonizingly slowly as the game approaches, suggestions would be appreciated.

Absolute, certain guaranteed solution to your problem: Get Older.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Hopefully the players don't feel the same way. Wish we had the early game. Win or lose, I'll be up with an elevated heartbeat well past midnight for this one.

I have a trip to New York starting tomorrow and I want to be in a good mood for it because it will be my first time in the Big Apple!

The good news is Arizona I am sure is just as nervous. Why not? I don't buy the whole "no one expects anything from us anyway" especially when you're in the Sweet 16. I expect there to be jitters on both sides.

[OldPhiKap]

Absolut . . .

I thought you were advising on a bunch of Vodka-drinking. I gotta start reading the WHOLE post.

[Channing]

well...I can no longer focus on anything in front of me...just waiting for game time.

[gcashwell]

I find it interesting how I get more nervous for these games than any I played in.

[hurleyfor3]

Here's a great read (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2011/news/story?id=6253110) on the 2001 title game, from the perspective of Jay Williams, an Arizona reserve player, and two sportswriters. However tonight's game turns out, let's hope it is remembered for the quality of play and not for the officiating.

I was going to post this link until I noticed you already have. Great memories, despite Forde's typical conspiracy-theorist angle. Someone tell him excessive contact when going for a loose ball is explicitly not a foul.

[J4Kop99]

I find it interesting how I get more nervous for these games than any I played in.

I completely agree. I think it has a lot to do with us having absolutely no control or impact on the game. All we can do is sit down and watch it. At least when I played, I could go out there and have an impact on the game... Now I just watch and at times, feel helpless.

[Duke76]

gin and tonic for me, hopefully just one

[wilson]

gin and tonic for me, hopefully just onePabst BLUE Ribbon. Number 4 right now.

[pfrduke]

gin and tonic for me, hopefully just one

Elmer T. Lee bourbon, on the rocks, one per half (at least that's the plan). It was my bourbon of choice during the tournament last year, and after finishing off my existing bottle of Eagle Rare during the ACCT, I resupplied with Mr. Lee.

[pfrduke]

Pabst BLUE Ribbon. Number 4 right now.

The Redick beer. Soon to be followed by the Mason beer. I assume you'll stop short of the Singler beer, and please stay away from the Zoubek beer. ;)

[wilson]

The Redick beer. Soon to be followed by the Mason beer. I assume you'll stop short of the Singler beer, and please stay away from the Zoubek beer. ;)Will do, but I'm not promising I won't reach the Dick Groat beer by night's end.

[superdave]

Will do, but I'm not promising I won't reach the Dick Groat beer by night's end.

Hope no one is drinking Arizona beer. I'm bouncing back and forth between Texas, Holland and Maryland beer myself. I'm nervous though - not about the game, just about how I'm going to pass the next 90 minutes without hair falling out.

[J4Kop99]

Since we're on the topic of drinks... Last year, Coca-Cola brought back their classic bottles and partnered up with the NCAA. I saw the 6-packs at the grocery store and decided to pick one up for old times sake. Anyways, long story short, after the first two games of the tournament last year, I realized, coincidentally, that I had drank one of the bottles after each win. 2 games down, 2 cokes down. At that point, I made a rule that I could only have a coke, if we continued to win.

Well, I think you guys can guess how this story ends and let's just say that my 6th and final coke was the greatest tasting drink I've ever had in my life.

[sdotbarbee]

I started with Miller Lite before the Uconn vs SDSU game and have now switch to red bull and vodka since the game is so late. :)

[Duke76]

gin and tonic for me, hopefully just one

well, that didn't take long, on to number 2 gin and tonic, so friggin nervous, I gotta son who is a freshman pledge and is scared he has to drive brothers around and they won't let him come in and watch the game....cruel if it happens but gotta believe they will bring him in while game is on

[NYBri]

Sam Adams Nobel Pils. Game time will switch to the hard stuff...Chlorox.

[DukeBlueHeart4]

I have made a pitcher of my world famous frozen margaritas! The guys in attendance are not very appreciative but what else do they expect? They're at a basketball viewing party hosted by a girl! :D

[NYBri]

well, that didn't take long, on to number 2 gin and tonic, so friggin nervous, I gotta son who is a freshman pledge and is scared he has to drive brothers around and they won't let him come in and watch the game....cruel if it happens but gotta believe they will bring him in while game is on

That's brutal. Hazing hitting new lows. :)

[NYBri]

As if it matters. SDSU by 2... Florida by 3.

[ChrisP]

I'm just hoping this UCONN - SDSU game doesn't go to OT and thus further delay our game. It's a tight one though and looks like it'll go down to the wire. At least on TV, there seems to be HUGE crowd support for SDSU. I imagine all those voices will be united against Duke around 9:45 EDT. I just hope we play up to our potential - if we do, we'll win. Simple as that :D

[moonpie23]

i'm really nervous, but it will simmer down when the game gets underway....


i just hope we play our game well....

I love this team...!!

[MChambers]

At least on TV, there seems to be HUGE crowd support for SDSU. I imagine all those voices will be united against Duke around 9:45 EDT. I just hope we play up to our potential - if we do, we'll win. Simple as that :D
Those voices may be leaving before the second game. At least it's looking that way.

[ChrisP]

Those voices may be leaving before the second game. At least it's looking that way.

It is? Looks like a pretty close game to me.

Hmmm...ok maybe not - UCONNvicts up by 9 now...

[NYBri]

Walker with 34. One man show.

[Matches]

gin and tonic for me, hopefully just one

Smithwick's Irish Creme Ale.

[duke96]

The CBS / Turner deal is the best. May all the games be shown evermore.

A great evening of basketball so far. Here's to saying the same in a few hours.

[NYBri]

The CBS / Turner deal is the best. May all the games be shown evermore.

A great evening of basketball so far. Here's to saying the same in a few hours.

I don't think they will leave this deal. Perfect for the NCAAT.

[NYBri]

SDSU fans will be filing out silently soon.

[ChrisP]

What a BONEHEADED pass by SDSU! Game over (or rather, it should be). I have to admit, I thought UCONN would be the snot out of them but they acquitted themselves well.

[superdave]

Cheering for Jimmer to miss his way back to Utah. I'm tired of hearing about this jabroni. He's a short, pudgy version of Adam Morrison. No D, all shooter. Let's goooooo Billy Donovan!

[NYBri]

Let's get by 'Zona...then we can focus on Walker.

Quick start and don't let up!

[Chris Randolph]

Walker with 34. One man show.

Jeremy Lamb

Lets Go Duke!

[superdave]

Let's get by 'Zona...then we can focus on Walker.

Quick start and don't let up!

You said it well. Forget UConn, let's spear some Wildcat. Let's hound them out of the gate and grab every last rebound!

I'm smelling some Nolan ball pressure, some tall Plumlee D and some nice run outs.

[NashvilleDevil]

Cheering for Jimmer to miss his way back to Utah. I'm tired of hearing about this jabroni. He's a short, pudgy version of Adam Morrison. No D, all shooter. Let's goooooo Billy Donovan!

I want any coach with 2 titles to get beat because I really do not want another coach getting close to K's 4.

[moonpie23]

DEFENSE.....HARD NOSED DUKE DEFENSE.......the kind that AZ has not seen....or felt...

[duke96]

"Would you foul?" with game tied and 8 seconds left... What an absurd suggestion....

[Utley]

Nolan - be angry my friend.

[NYBri]

Jeremy Lamb

Lets Go Duke!

Yes...he had 24. TWO man show.

[FellowTraveler]

Yes...he had 24. TWO man show.

On only 11 shots. And the huge, great steal near the end. Lamb looks like he could be a fantastic player. Patient, smart, smooth, crafty. And defenses have to pay so much attention to Walker, it's easy to lose him.

[DukeFanNJ]

I just hope that Nolan stays within himself and doesn't try to out perform Uconn's Walker. We might need him to take over at times but we need balanced scoring.

[NYBri]

Here we go!

[ChrisP]

Great to see Kyle hit back-to-back 3's!!!

[riverside6]

live tempo-based stats for the game here...

http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=10290