Kedsy
03-16-2011, 12:41 PM
I have been asked to post a Phase VI, which as I understand it is the first and (hopefully) second game of the NCAA tournament. So that's Hampton and possibly Michigan or Tennessee.
While there are potentially some interesting issues regarding, e.g., Michigan's 1-3-1 zone and Tennessee's Jekyll and Hyde-like performances, I have chosen to focus exclusively on Duke.
1) Health. They say if you don't have your health, you don't have anything, and you could argue that's an understatement in NCAA tournament basketball. In the ACCT we saw Seth get a hip pointer and Nolan injure his toe, although thankfully both played through the injuries with no apparent ill effects. We just have to knock on wood with crossed fingers and hope (a) those injuries and all the other cuts and bruises heal properly; and (b) that we can stay healthy from here on in.
2) Kyrie. Will he come back? Well, it seems so, although it's still not a lock. Assuming he does, the big questions -- probably the biggest questions of this Phase -- are how close will he be to the Kyrie we saw in November and December? And how successfully will Coach K be able to integrate him into the "current" team?
I expect the answer to the first question is "close enough." With the growth we've seen from the squad without Kyrie, we don't need him to be the same player he was. We need a pair of quick hands on defense, and a way to get easier baskets at critical moments, and if he's far enough along to play he should provide both of those things. Also, Kyrie's return should force other teams to stop concentrating so hard on stopping Nolan, and assuming Nolan plays anywhere near the level we've seen from him in the past three months, if he isn't the primary focus of our opponent's defense, then good things ought to happen.
As far as re-integration, personally I don't think it will be a problem. But I can't say for certain, because when Kyrie played, sometimes it seemed that Kyle and Seth, especially, and the others occasionally, weren't quite on the same page as Kyrie all the time, and weren't quite sure where to go or what to do. The reason I doubt it will be a problem is because I expect Kyrie to make a huge effort to be on the same page as his teammates, rather than forcing them to get on the same page with him. (That sentence may have made more sense in my head than it does on the screen, but I'm sticking with it.)
An interesting ancillary question is the return of the dreaded "big vs. small" debate. Here's what I said in the big vs. small thread:
Against Marquette, Kansas State, and Michigan State, our small lineup averaged nearly 23 minutes a game, more than twice what the small lineup has played since Kyrie was injured (11 minutes a game). Of course that was with Andre playing 23.1 minutes per game while Seth was only playing 17.6 minutes per game, which is important because it was Andre and not Seth who was primarily the third guard in the "small" lineup. Will Seth lose minutes to Andre because of Kyrie's return? Hard to see that the way Seth has been playing. But if he doesn't, it's also hard to see Coach K employing a Nolan/Kyrie/Seth lineup and disrupting our defense as well as we played D in the ACCT.
I'm not sure how this will play out, but I am fairly sure of two things: (1) when Kyrie plays, most of the time Nolan will also be on the floor; and (2) when we go "small," most of the time Andre will be the third guard and not Seth. How much we go small, I have no idea.
3) Defense vs. Defensive rebounding Since the beginning of the calendar year, while our overall defense has been up and down, our defensive rebounding has been pretty good. Mason, in particular, has become a great defensive rebounder. In fact, according to Pomeroy, going into the ACC tournament, Mason was the 27th best defensive rebounder in the nation. But a funny thing happened in the ACCT -- our defense tightened up and became a beautiful thing to watch, but our defensive rebounding slipped. Mason only had 3 defensive rebounds against Va Tech and just 4 defensive rebounds against UNC. His national ranking has dropped to 41st. Miles only had 6 defensive rebounds in the entire ACC tournament, while Ryan grabbed just 4.
As a side note, I find it somewhat amusing that many posters here on DBR were critical of our bigs' defensive rebounding toward the end of the regular season when we lost a couple games but our rebounding was pretty good (our three bigs had 17 defensive rebounds at Chapel Hill, for example), but in the ACCT I read threads praising our bigs' rebounding when it was average at best.
Putting that aside, I wonder if within Duke's defensive system we can ever have both great defense and great defensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding has often been an issue for us in the past, because it's difficult to fill the passing lanes properly and still be in position to get the board. Having said that, I'm not sure it matters. If we play defense the way we did in the ACCT, we can afford to give up an extra few offensive rebounds.
4) Andre vs. Seth. Early in the season, Andre was playing great and Seth seemed to have a little trouble finding his way. Later in the season, Seth emerged as a big-time player but Andre seemed to deflate. In the ACCT, they both played well (although neither of them scored more than 11 points in any ACCT game). The question is, can both of them continue to play well, or are we stuck with either one or the other? It seems to me Kyrie's return may make this situation even murkier. Ultimately, I don't have an answer, but I'm hoping they both continue their roll from the ACCT.
5) Kyle's 3-point touch. In an interview during the ACCT, Kyle "guaranteed" his 3-point shot would come back. And clearly he's getting closer -- his 3-pointers during the ACCT looked good out of his hand and were almost all on-line. But this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades, and he only shot 1 for 12 from threeville during the tournament. And like it or not, Kyle's going to keep taking them. He's not going to become exclusively an inside player.
Will Kyle's shots start falling? The next two games would be a great time to find out.
6) Unexpected stuff. You have to expect the unexpected in the post-season tournaments. Good unexpected stuff like Miles getting 8 offensive rebounds against Maryland; or not-so-good, like a rival's 30-some percent outside shooter hitting 6 for 8 from behind the arc and scoring 40 points. If we run into some not-so-good surprises, how will the team react? Will Coach K give us some new wrinkles to debate?
7) Intensity. This is the biggest difference between our late season mini-swoon and our awesome ACCT performance. After the game at Chapel Hill, Nolan said the team was angry. That they didn't want to lose another game. And they played like it in the ACC tournament. The defense against UNC was the most intense we've seen in years.
Can they keep it up? I would argue that the answer to this question alone can predict whether we make the Final Four or not. Will our intensity suffer against lower seeded opponents? Will Kyrie add to the intensity or distract from it?
Here's hoping we can keep the intensity level we attained over the past three games, and that Phase VI is the start of a tournament run to remember.
Go Duke!
While there are potentially some interesting issues regarding, e.g., Michigan's 1-3-1 zone and Tennessee's Jekyll and Hyde-like performances, I have chosen to focus exclusively on Duke.
1) Health. They say if you don't have your health, you don't have anything, and you could argue that's an understatement in NCAA tournament basketball. In the ACCT we saw Seth get a hip pointer and Nolan injure his toe, although thankfully both played through the injuries with no apparent ill effects. We just have to knock on wood with crossed fingers and hope (a) those injuries and all the other cuts and bruises heal properly; and (b) that we can stay healthy from here on in.
2) Kyrie. Will he come back? Well, it seems so, although it's still not a lock. Assuming he does, the big questions -- probably the biggest questions of this Phase -- are how close will he be to the Kyrie we saw in November and December? And how successfully will Coach K be able to integrate him into the "current" team?
I expect the answer to the first question is "close enough." With the growth we've seen from the squad without Kyrie, we don't need him to be the same player he was. We need a pair of quick hands on defense, and a way to get easier baskets at critical moments, and if he's far enough along to play he should provide both of those things. Also, Kyrie's return should force other teams to stop concentrating so hard on stopping Nolan, and assuming Nolan plays anywhere near the level we've seen from him in the past three months, if he isn't the primary focus of our opponent's defense, then good things ought to happen.
As far as re-integration, personally I don't think it will be a problem. But I can't say for certain, because when Kyrie played, sometimes it seemed that Kyle and Seth, especially, and the others occasionally, weren't quite on the same page as Kyrie all the time, and weren't quite sure where to go or what to do. The reason I doubt it will be a problem is because I expect Kyrie to make a huge effort to be on the same page as his teammates, rather than forcing them to get on the same page with him. (That sentence may have made more sense in my head than it does on the screen, but I'm sticking with it.)
An interesting ancillary question is the return of the dreaded "big vs. small" debate. Here's what I said in the big vs. small thread:
Against Marquette, Kansas State, and Michigan State, our small lineup averaged nearly 23 minutes a game, more than twice what the small lineup has played since Kyrie was injured (11 minutes a game). Of course that was with Andre playing 23.1 minutes per game while Seth was only playing 17.6 minutes per game, which is important because it was Andre and not Seth who was primarily the third guard in the "small" lineup. Will Seth lose minutes to Andre because of Kyrie's return? Hard to see that the way Seth has been playing. But if he doesn't, it's also hard to see Coach K employing a Nolan/Kyrie/Seth lineup and disrupting our defense as well as we played D in the ACCT.
I'm not sure how this will play out, but I am fairly sure of two things: (1) when Kyrie plays, most of the time Nolan will also be on the floor; and (2) when we go "small," most of the time Andre will be the third guard and not Seth. How much we go small, I have no idea.
3) Defense vs. Defensive rebounding Since the beginning of the calendar year, while our overall defense has been up and down, our defensive rebounding has been pretty good. Mason, in particular, has become a great defensive rebounder. In fact, according to Pomeroy, going into the ACC tournament, Mason was the 27th best defensive rebounder in the nation. But a funny thing happened in the ACCT -- our defense tightened up and became a beautiful thing to watch, but our defensive rebounding slipped. Mason only had 3 defensive rebounds against Va Tech and just 4 defensive rebounds against UNC. His national ranking has dropped to 41st. Miles only had 6 defensive rebounds in the entire ACC tournament, while Ryan grabbed just 4.
As a side note, I find it somewhat amusing that many posters here on DBR were critical of our bigs' defensive rebounding toward the end of the regular season when we lost a couple games but our rebounding was pretty good (our three bigs had 17 defensive rebounds at Chapel Hill, for example), but in the ACCT I read threads praising our bigs' rebounding when it was average at best.
Putting that aside, I wonder if within Duke's defensive system we can ever have both great defense and great defensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding has often been an issue for us in the past, because it's difficult to fill the passing lanes properly and still be in position to get the board. Having said that, I'm not sure it matters. If we play defense the way we did in the ACCT, we can afford to give up an extra few offensive rebounds.
4) Andre vs. Seth. Early in the season, Andre was playing great and Seth seemed to have a little trouble finding his way. Later in the season, Seth emerged as a big-time player but Andre seemed to deflate. In the ACCT, they both played well (although neither of them scored more than 11 points in any ACCT game). The question is, can both of them continue to play well, or are we stuck with either one or the other? It seems to me Kyrie's return may make this situation even murkier. Ultimately, I don't have an answer, but I'm hoping they both continue their roll from the ACCT.
5) Kyle's 3-point touch. In an interview during the ACCT, Kyle "guaranteed" his 3-point shot would come back. And clearly he's getting closer -- his 3-pointers during the ACCT looked good out of his hand and were almost all on-line. But this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades, and he only shot 1 for 12 from threeville during the tournament. And like it or not, Kyle's going to keep taking them. He's not going to become exclusively an inside player.
Will Kyle's shots start falling? The next two games would be a great time to find out.
6) Unexpected stuff. You have to expect the unexpected in the post-season tournaments. Good unexpected stuff like Miles getting 8 offensive rebounds against Maryland; or not-so-good, like a rival's 30-some percent outside shooter hitting 6 for 8 from behind the arc and scoring 40 points. If we run into some not-so-good surprises, how will the team react? Will Coach K give us some new wrinkles to debate?
7) Intensity. This is the biggest difference between our late season mini-swoon and our awesome ACCT performance. After the game at Chapel Hill, Nolan said the team was angry. That they didn't want to lose another game. And they played like it in the ACC tournament. The defense against UNC was the most intense we've seen in years.
Can they keep it up? I would argue that the answer to this question alone can predict whether we make the Final Four or not. Will our intensity suffer against lower seeded opponents? Will Kyrie add to the intensity or distract from it?
Here's hoping we can keep the intensity level we attained over the past three games, and that Phase VI is the start of a tournament run to remember.
Go Duke!