pfrduke
03-15-2011, 07:40 PM
It's tournament time everybody! (Well, not everybody - an end of season farewell to Wake Forest, Georgia Tech (and Coach Hewitt), Virginia, NC State (and Coach Lowe), and Maryland). 7 ACC teams are moving on to post-season play - let's take a look at the road ahead for each of them.
Monday was dark.
Tuesday kicks off both the Big and the little dances. In the former, Clemson has the fortune - or misfortune, depending on your perspective - of taking on UAB, a team that almost everyone agrees did not belong in the field. On the plus side, that's because UAB wasn't that good this year - they didn't beat any of the top 64 teams in the country (per Pomeroy) and lost to two sub-100 squads. On the minus side, being nationally trashed for the last two days could have a way of motivating a team to prove the doubters wrong. UAB ranks about even with Miami, a team Clemson swept this season. Winner gets to go to Tampa to play West Virginia on Thursday. In the little dance, Boston College plays McNeese State, an automatic qualifier by virtue of winning the Southland regular season but losing in the conference tourney. McNeese is ranked almost exactly even with Yale, a team that knocked off BC is Chestnut Hill back in November. For some reason, BC is going on the road for this one, traveling to Lake Charles to face McNeese on their home court. Winner gets the winner of Northwestern/UW-Milwaukee.
[24]Clemson vs. [56]UAB in Dayton
[66]Boston College at [194]McNeese State
Wednesday features more NIT home games for former Big East teams. Virginia Tech, victims of a political conspiracy for the fourth straight year (or something like that), hosts Bethune-Cookman, winner of the MEAC regular season. Believe it or not, Pomeroy ranks the Wildcats as worse than Wake Forest, so they shouldn't pose much of a problem for the Hokies. The winner takes on the winner of the Wichita State/Nebraska game. Miami, a 2 seed, plays host to Florida Atlantic, winner of the Sun Belt regular season. The Owls have wins over Mississippi State and UW-Milwaukee to their credit, but were beat somewhat comfortably by Florida and George Mason and have several losses to sub-200 teams.
[30]Virginia Tech hosts [293]Bethune-Cookman
[59]Miami hosts [186]Florida Atlantic
Thursday has Clemson in their second tournament game before any other ACC team gets its first. The Tigers were extremely impressive against UAB, dominating the paint on both ends of the court and forcing the Blazers into a lot of turnovers. But for some hot outside shooting, it would have been much more of a blowout than it already was. Indeed, Clemson's performance was sufficiently strong that it vaulted the Tigers above West Virginia in the standings, making them the ever-so-slight favorite (of course, that doesn't take into consideration the overnight travel from Dayton and the fact that they'll be the early game on Thursday - brilliant scheduling by the NCAA). For the Mountaineers, they've played a rather impressive schedule - 24 of their 31 opponents are in Pomeroy's top 100, and they played no one below 152 in the out of conference schedule (Depaul, at 200, was their easiest opponent). WV plays defense by forcing you to miss shots - they are bad at forcing turnovers and really bad at getting steals, but have a top 50 efg% defense that is particularly effective on the 3-point line, allowing opponents to hit just 29.1% (4th best in the nation). Oddly enough, for a team focusing so heavily on making the opponents miss, they don't do a particularly good job cleaning up the defensive glass - their defensive rebounding is ranked 275th. The names and faces should be familiar to Duke fans - Butler and Ebanks are gone, but there are really no newcomers; everyone who gets meaningful minutes was part of last year's final 4 run (Truck Bryant is a sort of exception, given his late season injury). Winner here gets the winner of Kentucky/Princeton (go Tigers!)
[21]Clemson vs. [22]West Virginia in Tampa
Friday puts the 3 ACC squads with guaranteed spots in the field of 64 on the court. Duke kicks off the day with a 3:10 game against Hampton, winners of the MEAC tournament. The Pirates have one of the worst offenses in the country, and got swept during the regular season by Florida A&M, a team that finished 328th in the Pomeroy rankings. Oddly enough, they won their only game against top 100 competition, a 2-point win over Colorado State on a neutral court. Duke should impose a slightly more difficult challenge than the Rams did. Around halftime of the Duke game FSU will tip off against Texas A&M. Although the Noles are the 10 seed, they are the favorite under Pomeroy's analysis (although by the narrowest of margins). FSU expects to have Singleton back in the lineup, which could tip the scales in their favor. In the nightcap, the Heels take on the Blackbirds of Long Island, winners of the NEC regular season and tournament (the latter in dramatic fashion in overtime). Expect a fast game - both teams are in the top 25 in tempo nationwide, with LIU playing even faster than UNC. Also expect UNC to score a lot - LIU's defense is sub-par, and they don't put a single player taller than 6'7" on the court (at least not for any meaningful minutes).
[2]Duke vs. [211]Hampton in Charlotte
[42]Florida State vs. [45]Texas A&M in Chicago
[14]UNC vs. [121]Long Island in Charlotte
Saturday and Sunday will hopefully be filled with more ACC action - look for updates as teams advance (knock on wood) and matchups are set.
Monday was dark.
Tuesday kicks off both the Big and the little dances. In the former, Clemson has the fortune - or misfortune, depending on your perspective - of taking on UAB, a team that almost everyone agrees did not belong in the field. On the plus side, that's because UAB wasn't that good this year - they didn't beat any of the top 64 teams in the country (per Pomeroy) and lost to two sub-100 squads. On the minus side, being nationally trashed for the last two days could have a way of motivating a team to prove the doubters wrong. UAB ranks about even with Miami, a team Clemson swept this season. Winner gets to go to Tampa to play West Virginia on Thursday. In the little dance, Boston College plays McNeese State, an automatic qualifier by virtue of winning the Southland regular season but losing in the conference tourney. McNeese is ranked almost exactly even with Yale, a team that knocked off BC is Chestnut Hill back in November. For some reason, BC is going on the road for this one, traveling to Lake Charles to face McNeese on their home court. Winner gets the winner of Northwestern/UW-Milwaukee.
[24]Clemson vs. [56]UAB in Dayton
[66]Boston College at [194]McNeese State
Wednesday features more NIT home games for former Big East teams. Virginia Tech, victims of a political conspiracy for the fourth straight year (or something like that), hosts Bethune-Cookman, winner of the MEAC regular season. Believe it or not, Pomeroy ranks the Wildcats as worse than Wake Forest, so they shouldn't pose much of a problem for the Hokies. The winner takes on the winner of the Wichita State/Nebraska game. Miami, a 2 seed, plays host to Florida Atlantic, winner of the Sun Belt regular season. The Owls have wins over Mississippi State and UW-Milwaukee to their credit, but were beat somewhat comfortably by Florida and George Mason and have several losses to sub-200 teams.
[30]Virginia Tech hosts [293]Bethune-Cookman
[59]Miami hosts [186]Florida Atlantic
Thursday has Clemson in their second tournament game before any other ACC team gets its first. The Tigers were extremely impressive against UAB, dominating the paint on both ends of the court and forcing the Blazers into a lot of turnovers. But for some hot outside shooting, it would have been much more of a blowout than it already was. Indeed, Clemson's performance was sufficiently strong that it vaulted the Tigers above West Virginia in the standings, making them the ever-so-slight favorite (of course, that doesn't take into consideration the overnight travel from Dayton and the fact that they'll be the early game on Thursday - brilliant scheduling by the NCAA). For the Mountaineers, they've played a rather impressive schedule - 24 of their 31 opponents are in Pomeroy's top 100, and they played no one below 152 in the out of conference schedule (Depaul, at 200, was their easiest opponent). WV plays defense by forcing you to miss shots - they are bad at forcing turnovers and really bad at getting steals, but have a top 50 efg% defense that is particularly effective on the 3-point line, allowing opponents to hit just 29.1% (4th best in the nation). Oddly enough, for a team focusing so heavily on making the opponents miss, they don't do a particularly good job cleaning up the defensive glass - their defensive rebounding is ranked 275th. The names and faces should be familiar to Duke fans - Butler and Ebanks are gone, but there are really no newcomers; everyone who gets meaningful minutes was part of last year's final 4 run (Truck Bryant is a sort of exception, given his late season injury). Winner here gets the winner of Kentucky/Princeton (go Tigers!)
[21]Clemson vs. [22]West Virginia in Tampa
Friday puts the 3 ACC squads with guaranteed spots in the field of 64 on the court. Duke kicks off the day with a 3:10 game against Hampton, winners of the MEAC tournament. The Pirates have one of the worst offenses in the country, and got swept during the regular season by Florida A&M, a team that finished 328th in the Pomeroy rankings. Oddly enough, they won their only game against top 100 competition, a 2-point win over Colorado State on a neutral court. Duke should impose a slightly more difficult challenge than the Rams did. Around halftime of the Duke game FSU will tip off against Texas A&M. Although the Noles are the 10 seed, they are the favorite under Pomeroy's analysis (although by the narrowest of margins). FSU expects to have Singleton back in the lineup, which could tip the scales in their favor. In the nightcap, the Heels take on the Blackbirds of Long Island, winners of the NEC regular season and tournament (the latter in dramatic fashion in overtime). Expect a fast game - both teams are in the top 25 in tempo nationwide, with LIU playing even faster than UNC. Also expect UNC to score a lot - LIU's defense is sub-par, and they don't put a single player taller than 6'7" on the court (at least not for any meaningful minutes).
[2]Duke vs. [211]Hampton in Charlotte
[42]Florida State vs. [45]Texas A&M in Chicago
[14]UNC vs. [121]Long Island in Charlotte
Saturday and Sunday will hopefully be filled with more ACC action - look for updates as teams advance (knock on wood) and matchups are set.