Bracketology - The Home Stretch

[tommy]

Mods, of course feel free to move/merge this into something existing, but other than the Lunardi thread, I didn't see anything really dedicated to this topic of obvious interest to everyone, and our discussion of it shouldn't be tied to Lunardi, right?

In any event, Lunardi and most others do still have us as a #1, in the west. Lunardi's got BYU as our #2, with a 4-5 matchup of Louisville-Arizona. Syracuse is the 3.

I don't think we could realistically expect any better draw than that, and I would welcome it. There's not much question in my mind that, should the matchup materialize, we would have a much better chance against BYU than against teams like Pitt, Kansas, OSU, and some other Big East teams.

In order for this scenario to occur, unless I'm mistaken, what we need to do is of course win the ACC Tournament, and then hope that perhaps BYU loses in the finals of their tournament to San Diego State. If they lose earlier, they could drop to a 3. It would also help if Notre Dame lost in the BET to foreclose any chance of their jumping us as a #1 seed.

Also, for those more in the know, correct me if I'm wrong as to this: Our chances to be paired with BYU in the west are far better with us as the #1 and them as the #2 than vice versa, because if we're a #2 the committee would do us the "favor" of keeping us closer to home and likely put us in New Orleans, presumably against Pitt, rather than do the simple S-curve thing and put us, as the overall #5, against presumed overall #4 BYU. Is that right?

[Jarhead]

Unless we stumble and crumble this weekend, I don't see us falling any lower than a 2 seed. We have a good chance to win next Sunday, so I wouldn't lose so much faith that we could fall to a #5. And, if we do win next Sunday, we could very easily find ourselves as a #1 seed again. Those folks in the Big East are facing a potentially hazardous chore this weekend, also. They have some strange ways up there, so who knows what to expect. When it comes to region assignments, Lunardi is guessing, just like the rest of us. I'll be printing out his last Bracketology before the drawings are announced Sunday evening, so I can see just how accurate he is.

[tommy]

Unless we stumble and crumble this weekend, I don't see us falling any lower than a 2 seed. We have a good chance to win next Sunday, so I wouldn't lose so much faith that we could fall to a #5. And, if we do win next Sunday, we could very easily find ourselves as a #1 seed again. Those folks in the Big East are facing a potentially hazardous chore this weekend, also. They have some strange ways up there, so who knows what to expect. When it comes to region assignments, Lunardi is guessing, just like the rest of us. I'll be printing out his last Bracketology before the drawings are announced Sunday evening, so I can see just how accurate he is.

I said we could be the overall #5 on the S-curve, which theoretically would mean we should be paired in a regional with the overall #4, which is the #1 seed that is considered the be the least strong of the four #1's. Of course we won't be a #5 seed in the tournament, as in a #5 who plays a #12 in the first round. No matter what happens in Greensboro, we're going to be a 1 or a 2.

[sporthenry]

Well I don't see any way BYU gets a 1 seed. I guess beating SD St. without Davies might make the committee reconsider but Duke, ND, or even UNC seem to be in a better position than BYU. However, I do believe getting the 1 out West would benefit Duke most. If they don't win the ACCT, I see them falling on the S-curve to around 8-10 which might benefit them b/c then whoever is ahead of them in terms of teams like UNC, ND, or Texas would take the tougher brackets if the committee follows the distance rule as closely as Lunardi and other analysts who went through the fake process are claiming.
So best case scenario would be that Duke gets the 1 out West with either SD St. or BYU as their 2. But it will be difficult for Duke to get the 2 seed out West since BYU or SD St. would have preference so Duke might be better served falling to the top 3 and then going out West and going through BYU/SD St. and ND as opposed to seeing a team like Syracuse and Pitt/OSU.

[-bdbd]

Well I don't see any way BYU gets a 1 seed. I guess beating SD St. without Davies might make the committee reconsider but Duke, ND, or even UNC seem to be in a better position than BYU. However, I do believe getting the 1 out West would benefit Duke most. If they don't win the ACCT, I see them falling on the S-curve to around 8-10 which might benefit them b/c then whoever is ahead of them in terms of teams like UNC, ND, or Texas would take the tougher brackets if the committee follows the distance rule as closely as Lunardi and other analysts who went through the fake process are claiming.
So best case scenario would be that Duke gets the 1 out West with either SD St. or BYU as their 2. But it will be difficult for Duke to get the 2 seed out West since BYU or SD St. would have preference so Duke might be better served falling to the top 3 and then going out West and going through BYU/SD St. and ND as opposed to seeing a team like Syracuse and Pitt/OSU.

Given Duke's residence among the top eight for the whole year, I would find it very improbable that Duke could fall out of a #2 seed. I suppose it is possible if they played very poorly and lost on Friday. But assuming that they make it to Sunday, or even if just to Sat. but play well, then I see us as a solid #2. Don't forget that a lot of those 5-10 ranked teams have been losing lately too. And ND is not the favorite in the Big East (though I might see the BE winner - if Pitt or ND - getting a #1 seed).

Similarly, I just don't see how NC jumps from a #18 ranking as of 9 days ago, all the way to a #1 seed by this Sunday. Yes they've moved up, but I think the best they can HOPE for is a #2 seed, and a #3 seems the most likely (and a #4 is still possible with a poor ACCT outcome). There are just too many teams with fewer losses between them and a #1 seed.

In sum, Duke is probably a #2 (hopefully in the same region as BYU or another relatively weak #1 -- ND?), with a decent shot at a #1 if they win the ACCT. Only a ACCT "crash and burn" drops them to a #3 seed. NC is likely a #3 seed, but could move up to #2 with an ACCT win, and could fall to #4 (though unlikely, depending on other top-12 teams) with an early ACCT exit.

Unrelated, but if anyone is interested, USA-Today has a poll up for the best Duke player of all time. They'll be doing this for about 15 top teams in the comings days...
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/gameon/post/2011/02/christian-laettner-bobby-hurley-johnny-dawkins-shane-battier-who-is-the-greatest-player-in-duke-history/1


:rolleyes:

[devildeac]

Caught a bit of Lunardi today and he has both BC and vt in the field. Not quite sure how he can include the (C)hokies, mostly based on them beating us, especially after they lost to C-L-E-M-S-O-pause, pause, pause-N and BC beat the "stuffing" outta them. At Cassell. On senior night. But, he does have a pretty good prognostication record;).

[DukeWarhead]

I'm not terribly optimistic about being in the same bracket with BYU, because I'm convinced that BYU won't make it to the Elite 8, so Duke wouldn't have a chance to square off. There will be no easy road to the final four, regardless of match-up. I'd rather Duke be a #2 to a perceived world-beater like Ohio State or Pitt, and assume the "underdog" role in the bracket.
I do, however, want to see my two least favorite teams - UNC and Kansas in the same bracket: 1 - So Roy has to play his old team again and 2) so that at least one of them is guaranteed to not make the final four. Hate UNC and Kansas. C'mon committee, stick them togther.

[Klemnop]

Caught a bit of Lunardi today and he has both BC and vt in the field. Not quite sure how he can include the (C)hokies, mostly based on them beating us, especially after they lost to C-L-E-M-S-O-pause, pause, pause-N and BC beat the "stuffing" outta them. At Cassell. On senior night. But, he does have a pretty good prognostication record;).

A) Incredibly soft bubble

B) Expanded field

C) I don't personally believe that both BC and Clemson can make the NCAAT. One of those teams is going to end up on Friday afternoon with a head-to-head loss to a direct bubble competitor...and the team that wins won't have added such a substantial W that they immediately erase themselves from bubble discussion.

If one of those two teams is more likely to be able to survive a Friday loss - it's BC. They're RPI and SOS are much stronger than Clemson's. They also have a Top 50 RPI win over Texas A&M (Clemson has zero Top 50 RPI Ws outside of ACC competition.)

VaTech cannot afford to lose on ACC Friday either, in my opinion. It's just that they're losing is not directly tied to a bubble competitor's winning.

It would sure help all of the ACC bubble teams for Colorado, Baylor, Michigan, Alabama/Georgia and Marquette to all tank in their respective tournaments. If even two of those teams soldify themselves with deep runs that makes the bubble all the less soft.

Likewise we need as few "bid thieves" as possible, starting with ODU taking out VCU tonight.

[rotogod00]

In Lunardi's just completed chat (this was my personal question, actually):

Q: If Duke and Notre Dame both win their respective tourneys (and beat the teams they're expected to play; i.e., no upsets in earlier rounds), who gets the last #1 seed?
A: I'd vote Notre Dame, Doug, just as I would have today. Deep down, though, I still think the Committee stays with Duke.

[SCMatt33]

Caught a bit of Lunardi today and he has both BC and vt in the field. Not quite sure how he can include the (C)hokies, mostly based on them beating us, especially after they lost to C-L-E-M-S-O-pause, pause, pause-N and BC beat the "stuffing" outta them. At Cassell. On senior night. But, he does have a pretty good prognostication record;).

That's a very tenuous thing. Remember, both are in the last four in, and there hasn't been any bid stealing. With ODU in pretty good shape for an at-large, VCU could steal a bid out of the colonial. Once all of the conference tourneys are done, you could see a couple of teams currently in the last 4 in get pushed out through no fault of their own. It happens every year.

As for Duke, I think that we almost control our own destiny for a 1-seed. The caveat is that if ND wins the Big East against Pitt, and Duke wins the ACC against a bunch of underdogs (think last year), I could see ND passing us. Going through the Big East gives them a stronger schedule (at the top anyway, I don't think the committee cares too much whether you played team's 150 or 350, which is part of the reason overall SOS is similar for both). With more top end wins, I could see them ahead of us even with an extra loss.

I don't even know how it came up here that Duke could fall below a two. Lunadi's 3-seeds are currently Purdue, SDSU, Syracuse, and Florida. Given their resumes, I don't see how one of them could pass us. The only other way it could happen is if teams are switched to meet bracketing principles, but the normal protocol is to switch lower seeds to make that happen, not higher seeds.

[DukieinSoCal]

In Lunardi's just completed chat (this was my personal question, actually):

Q: If Duke and Notre Dame both win their respective tourneys (and beat the teams they're expected to play; i.e., no upsets in earlier rounds), who gets the last #1 seed?
A: I'd vote Notre Dame, Doug, just as I would have today. Deep down, though, I still think the Committee stays with Duke.

That would be awesome. Who cares if it brings out all the Duke haters and conspiracy theorists. If we get an easier road the Final Four, I am all for it. Same with the ACCT. I would love for UNC to lose in the QF or SF round if it helps us.

[moonpie23]

That would be awesome. Who cares if it brings out all the Duke haters and conspiracy theorists. If we get an easier road the Final Four, I am all for it. Same with the ACCT. I would love for UNC to lose in the QF or SF round if it helps us.


as someone said...."i'd just have to live with that"...
:)

[sporthenry]

Of course nobody would expect this new BYU team to make the E8 but the point is would you rather play the 3 seed or the 2 seed. If the bracket is Duke/BYU, they probably get the top 3 seed but I would much rather see Purdue or Florida than Texas or ND in the E8.

[sporthenry]

And I'm not saying Duke will fall to a 3, but that they might be better served falling to a 3. I think it is a distinct possibility if they lose Saturday or even Sunday and things work against/for them. If they lose to UNC, UNC would jump them. If ND beats a ranked team, they could jump them. If Purdue goes to the B10 final, they might jump Duke. If Texas goes to B12 final, they would probably jump Duke. And if SD St. or BYU wins their tourney, they would probably jump Duke. It is a lot of ifs but if Duke loses 3 games in the last 2 weeks and has no big wins while Texas, ND, and Purdue are beating ranked teams, they might get jumped. But if they are the top 3, then they probably go out West with ND and BYU/SD St. unless UNC snakes the last 1 and doesn't jump Pitt. But even if they are a weak 2, there is almost no way to go out West unless both SD St. and BYU both drop to a 3 seed which seems unlikely b/c apparently this year, the committee is putting the utmost importance on distance to the regional site.

Duke should get the last 1 if they win the ACCT but if not they will most likely get the 2 seed opposite OSU or Pitt. They would conceivably get an easier 3 seed but I would much rather see a 3 next to their name and ND in their bracket than a 2 and OSU/Pitt in their bracket.

[1 24 90]

I'm not terribly optimistic about being in the same bracket with BYU, because I'm convinced that BYU won't make it to the Elite 8, so Duke wouldn't have a chance to square off. There will be no easy road to the final four, regardless of match-up. I'd rather Duke be a #2 to a perceived world-beater like Ohio State or Pitt, and assume the "underdog" role in the bracket.
I do, however, want to see my two least favorite teams - UNC and Kansas in the same bracket: 1 - So Roy has to play his old team again and 2) so that at least one of them is guaranteed to not make the final four. Hate UNC and Kansas. C'mon committee, stick them togther.

I live in Columbus, OH and I am hoping that UNC is OSU's #2 so that will keep at least one of them out of the Final Four.

[OldPhiKap]

Please, not in Charlotte with the Heels. Anything else is okay with me.

[Duvall]

Please, not in Charlotte with the Heels. Anything else is okay with me.

That's pretty much a given at this point.

[hurleyfor3]

That's pretty much a given at this point.

I'm not sure what could happen for both of us not to be sent to Charlotte. Even if a meteor falls on downtown they'd probably just move the games to the original Coliseum on Independence Boulevard.

[Jarhead]

Just looked at Lunardi's brackets. He still has Duke as a #1 seed in the West in today's version. I'm just saying. UNC is a #2 in the Southwest.

[burnspbesq]

Keep in mind that BYU has to be put in a Thursday-Saturday regional, either New Orleans or Anaheim. They also have to be put in a Thursday-Saturday pod (Denver, Tampa, Tucson, or Washington).

[OldPhiKap]

Just looked at Lunardi's brackets. He still has Duke as a #1 seed in the West in today's version. I'm just saying. UNC is a #2 in the Southwest.

IIRC, Foxsports had us a #2 in Kansas' bracket.

If we run the tables in Greensboro, we have a good shot at a #1. But I would not be surprised if BYU or a BE team grabs one and knocks us down, either.

Not sure it matters a whole lot.

[rsvman]

Of course nobody would expect this new BYU team to make the E8 but the point is would you rather play the 3 seed or the 2 seed. If the bracket is Duke/BYU, they probably get the top 3 seed but I would much rather see Purdue or Florida than Texas or ND in the E8.

Not me. I'd much rather face Texas than Purdue.

[sporthenry]

Not me. I'd much rather face Texas than Purdue.

Purdue doesn't scare me. Duke beat them with and without Hummel and I just don't see how they are any different. Nolan and Moore are a wash at best for the Boilermakers. So Duke just has to stop Johnson which I know is easier said then done but last year he had 23 and they still lost.
Meanwhile, Texas has a player very similar to Singler in Hamilton, a defensive stopper in Balbay, an underrated guard in Joseph, and their own big man in Thompson. Sure its Rick Barnes and they could fold but it was only 2 weeks ago that this team was the 'favorite' to win it all and if Texas gets to the E8 it means they are probably back to playing good basketball.

[Im4howdy]

(I vaguely remember seeing a thread on this so if so, let's update.)

I think Kansas and Ohio State are locks for #1 seeds and the winner of San Diego St. and BYU in their tournament will be a 3rd #1 (given their RPI and SOS).

If Notre Dame or Pitt win the Big East (a big if) they will get the 4th #1 seed.

If they both lose and Duke wins their tournament, Duke will get the 4th #1.

If Pitt, Notre Dame and Duke lose and UNC and Texas win, I think the heels will probably get the nod over Texas.

Any dissenting opinions?

[Duke of Nashville]

Purdue doesn't scare me. Duke beat them with and without Hummel and I just don't see how they are any different. Nolan and Moore are a wash at best for the Boilermakers. So Duke just has to stop Johnson which I know is easier said then done but last year he had 23 and they still lost.
Meanwhile, Texas has a player very similar to Singler in Hamilton, a defensive stopper in Balbay, an underrated guard in Joseph, and their own big man in Thompson. Sure its Rick Barnes and they could fold but it was only 2 weeks ago that this team was the 'favorite' to win it all and if Texas gets to the E8 it means they are probably back to playing good basketball.

Last years game was a battle. The toughest team was going to prevail and our points per possession was outrageous. Purdue has almost the same squad as last year and we do as well. Revenge game for sure and we all know Purdue has a few games to look back on for that. I wouldn't want to see a matchup with Purdue. If I had to pick a Big Ten opponent I'd much rather see Wisconsin.

[Kedsy]

Any dissenting opinions?

Yes.

[ns7]

(I vaguely remember seeing a thread on this so if so, let's update.)

I think Kansas and Ohio State are locks for #1 seeds and the winner of San Diego St. and BYU in their tournament will be a 3rd #1 (given their RPI and SOS).

If Notre Dame or Pitt win the Big East (a big if) they will get the 4th #1 seed.

If they both lose and Duke wins their tournament, Duke will get the 4th #1.

If Pitt, Notre Dame and Duke lose and UNC and Texas win, I think the heels will probably get the nod over Texas.

Any dissenting opinions?

Duke would be the 3/4th #1 over BYU/SDST if we win the ACCT. Most likely we'll have to beat VaTech/FSU and UNC/Clemson to win it and that would be a nice boost to our SOS (much more so than BYU/SDST).

[1 24 90]

(I vaguely remember seeing a thread on this so if so, let's update.)

I think Kansas and Ohio State are locks for #1 seeds and the winner of San Diego St. and BYU in their tournament will be a 3rd #1 (given their RPI and SOS).

If Notre Dame or Pitt win the Big East (a big if) they will get the 4th #1 seed.

If they both lose and Duke wins their tournament, Duke will get the 4th #1.

If Pitt, Notre Dame and Duke lose and UNC and Texas win, I think the heels will probably get the nod over Texas.

Any dissenting opinions?

Don't forget that Texas beat UNC and the BIG 12 is a higher rated conference so if Texas wins the BIG 12 I think they would get it over UNC. Also, I think someone from the Big East will get a #1 since it is rated the best conference. This may be contradictory to what I just said about conference ratings and since the RPI loves BYU & SDSU but looking at their profiles, I just don't see either getting a 1 seed.

[tommy]

OK so Pitt loses its first game in the BET in a close one to U-Con. Of course there is lots of tournament action left, there will be more upsets, and Duke has to take care of its own business.

Not so sure that, if the favorites win and Duke wins the ACCT, that Pitt's loss will end up to be good for us. My goal at this point is to get Duke out west with BYU or even San Diego St. as our #2. If Notre Dame wins the Big East, I believe they'll get a #1 and Pitt will not. So if OSU, Kansas, Duke, and Notre Dame are the #1s, who between Notre Dame and Duke goes to New Orleans and who goes out west?

And if Notre Dame goes down and we win the ACCT, we'd almost have to be the overall #3, meaning New Orleans, and not the west, right?

[tommy]

OK here we go again. BYU is down at the half to TCU. If they lose that, I think that'll have a major impact on their seeding, given it would be their second upset loss in the 3 games since the suspension.

[-bdbd]

OK here we go again. BYU is down at the half to TCU. If they lose that, I think that'll have a major impact on their seeding, given it would be their second upset loss in the 3 games since the suspension.

I think Duke beats out BYU for a #1 even if we both win out.... b/c (1) Higher ranking (they are #8 now, I think); (2) The committee also considers late-season personnel changes such as Irving returning (would boost Duke potentially) and BYU losing their starting Center (potentially hurts their seeding); and (3), as was just stated, Duke winning out vs MD, FSU and NC, for example, is more impressive than them beating TCU, Nevada, SDSU, etc.

I'm more interested in making sure that Duke wins out - almost impossible to get a #1 w/o at least getting to the ACCT finals (and very possibly needing to win the ACCT) - and watching the BET where Pitt and ND threaten our #1 seed status. That said, Pitt may have fallen behind us by losing their first BET game to #21 UCONN. Brey's boys could still beat us out for a #1 though. Just win baby!!

:cool:

[superdave]

Looks like Kansas and Ohio State are your #1 seed locks.

Duke has a very good chance at a #1 if they reach the ACCT finals and definitely if they win the ACCT. Unc could get a #1 if they beat Duke convincingly a 2nd time. ND could get a #1 if they win the BET, otherwise Pitt could back into a #1 if neither ND or Unc steps up, or if Duke lays an egg.

[1 24 90]

Remember that Syracuse still got a #1 seed last year after losing in the quarters but winning the Big East regular season. I think Connecticut did the same 2 years ago. Pitt should still be rewarded for an excellent season in my opinion.

[superdave]

Remember that Syracuse still got a #1 seed last year after losing in the quarters but winning the Big East regular season. I think Connecticut did the same 2 years ago. Pitt should still be rewarded for an excellent season in my opinion.

I think ND is the only team that could take away Pitt's #1. Also, I think Unc is the only team that could take Duke's #1.

[obsesseddukefan]

Am I the only one that isn't sold on the media blitz of BYU? I am sorry I am not sold on them what so ever. Don't get me wrong the facts about BYU do not lie, but I still would love Duke to be matched up with them so we can shut the "experts" up once and for all about this team. In my opinion, I think we blow BYU out of the water. Again just my opinion.

I think Jimmer is an amazing ball player, but I think the talent on our team wouldn't have an issue with BYU.

[CDu]

Am I the only one that isn't sold on the media blitz of BYU? I am sorry I am not sold on them what so ever. Don't get me wrong the facts about BYU do not lie, but I still would love Duke to be matched up with them so we can shut the "experts" up once and for all about this team. In my opinion, I think we blow BYU out of the water. Again just my opinion.

I think Jimmer is an amazing ball player, but I think the talent on our team wouldn't have an issue with BYU.

I think you're a bit late on the media love BYU - I think the media has started to turn on BYU with the recent loss of their best interior player. I think that, combined with the recent loss, probably buried their chances at a #1 seed.

I'd love for them to be the #2 to our #1 (or the #3 to our #2), because it means that if we're fortunate enough to get to the Elite 8 (or Sweet-16 if it's a 2/3 matchup), it very possibly/probably will not be BYU that we see. That said, I do think we'd beat BYU in a head-to-head. Smith and Fredette might cancel each other out, and our surrounding players are better.

But I think the odds of a Duke/BYU matchup are going to be slim - even if we're put in the same region.

[Rogue]

Win the ACCT and we can be a ONE.

BYU,, I think they'll be lucky to get a 3 seed, and more likely a 4-5 seed. I just remember how Cinn lost it's #1 seed when Martin when down, and what happened to Purdue last year,,

[ajgoodfella7]

I think ND is the only team that could take away Pitt's #1. Also, I think Unc is the only team that could take Duke's #1.

I agree with this statement for the most part. Except I think perhaps Pitt and ND could both end up as #1's if neither Duke nor UNC win the ACCT.

[pfrduke]

BYU will have to get by New Mexico tomorrow, a team that has, quite simply, owned the Cougars this season, sweeping by a total of 27 points.

[Kedsy]

BYU will have to get by New Mexico tomorrow, a team that has, quite simply, owned the Cougars this season, sweeping by a total of 27 points.

Yeah, but as a wise poster once said, it's awful hard to beat a team three times in a season... ;)

[1 24 90]

They just showed the profiles of Pitt, Duke & Notre Dame and ours just isn't even close. Against the Top 25, Pitt is 6-4, Duke is 2-2 and ND is 7-4. Against the Top 50 it gets a little better, Pitt is 9-5, Duke is 8-3 and ND is 10-4. I still think if Duke wins the ACC, they could get a 1 seed and everyone can complain that either Pitt or ND didn't.

[Kedsy]

They just showed the profiles of Pitt, Duke & Notre Dame and ours just isn't even close. Against the Top 25, Pitt is 6-4, Duke is 2-2 and ND is 7-4. Against the Top 50 it gets a little better, Pitt is 9-5, Duke is 8-3 and ND is 10-4. I still think if Duke wins the ACC, they could get a 1 seed and everyone can complain that either Pitt or ND didn't.

Well, 8-3 is a better percentage than either 9-5 or 10-4. And if Duke beats UNC and ND does not win the Big East tourney, then our 3-2 against the top 25 will also be a better winning percentage than either of them.

So the only way our profile "isn't even close" is because we played fewer games against top teams than they did. Although I think we still have more games and more wins against the top 100. It's not like we dodged anybody, though. Or play in a mid-major conference or anything.

I just checked the RPI, and as of this moment we are ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame and, get this, our schedule strength is ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame. We are also ranked higher than both Big East teams in Pomeroy and also in Sagarin "predictor." I conclude that if we win the ACC (and Notre Dame does not win the Big East), our profile is better than either of them.

[1 24 90]

Well, 8-3 is a better percentage than either 9-5 or 10-4. And if Duke beats UNC and ND does not win the Big East tourney, then our 3-2 against the top 25 will also be a better winning percentage than either of them.

So the only way our profile "isn't even close" is because we played fewer games against top teams than they did. Although I think we still have more games and more wins against the top 100. It's not like we dodged anybody, though. Or play in a mid-major conference or anything.

I just checked the RPI, and as of this moment we are ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame and, get this, our schedule strength is ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame. We are also ranked higher than both Big East teams in Pomeroy and also in Sagarin "predictor." I conclude that if we win the ACC (and Notre Dame does not win the Big East), our profile is better than either of them.

Point taken. I think I was drawn into ESPN's Big East love fest. Agreed, it's not Duke's fault the ACC is down.

[SCMatt33]

Well, 8-3 is a better percentage than either 9-5 or 10-4. And if Duke beats UNC and ND does not win the Big East tourney, then our 3-2 against the top 25 will also be a better winning percentage than either of them.

So the only way our profile "isn't even close" is because we played fewer games against top teams than they did. Although I think we still have more games and more wins against the top 100. It's not like we dodged anybody, though. Or play in a mid-major conference or anything.

I just checked the RPI, and as of this moment we are ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame and, get this, our schedule strength is ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame. We are also ranked higher than both Big East teams in Pomeroy and also in Sagarin "predictor." I conclude that if we win the ACC (and Notre Dame does not win the Big East), our profile is better than either of them.

I always think that RPI top 25 numbers are WAY overrated by the media. From everything I have read based on the mock selection process, the top 50 numbers are much more widely used than top 25 numbers. Here's a quote about the "nitty-gritty" sheets that are widely used for a quick overview from Andy Staples column about the mock selection this year: (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_staples/02/21/mock.tournament.selection/index.html#ixzz1GFuL7HKo)

Throughout the process, these monitors would show the teams up for consideration, side-by-side comparisons of specific teams and "nitty-gritty" reports on each team that feature 16 different factors including RPI rank, records (home, away, neutral and against RPIs 1-50, 51-100, 101-200 and RPI top 100), average opponent RPI rank and strength of schedule. (Notice how often the RPI pops up there?)

He talks a lot about how much the RPI is used, but never mentions RPI 1-25 as a major criteria. I know Big East teams in general have played a ton of them this year, but overall, but in general, the sample size is too small to use it as much as top 50.

[DukieinSoCal]

They just showed the profiles of Pitt, Duke & Notre Dame and ours just isn't even close. Against the Top 25, Pitt is 6-4, Duke is 2-2 and ND is 7-4. Against the Top 50 it gets a little better, Pitt is 9-5, Duke is 8-3 and ND is 10-4. I still think if Duke wins the ACC, they could get a 1 seed and everyone can complain that either Pitt or ND didn't.

How would the committee decide which stats are more important than the others? Is record vs top 25 more important than the record vs top 50 or top 100? It's so arbitrary where you draw the line. Since none of them are statisticians, they should just go with the overall RPI, which takes into account all the data and gives you one simple number/ranking.

As of this morning, somehow we jumped BYU and SDSU in the rankings and now sit at #3. ND is at 6 and Pitt at 9. For all the talk about how strong the Big East is this year, our SOS is not that much worse than ND's or Pitt's.

Of course, all we can control is our own games and we need to keep winning. But if people are going to use the RPI as one of the criteria, it should be used appropriately, and if it is, it would seem to favor Duke as a #1 seed.

[Jarhead]

http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/wizard.gif
Can anyone explain this? Earlier this week, Lunardi had Duke as the 1 seed in the West, and Pittsburgh as a 2 seed somewhere else. Nothing happens during the week, and a couple of Lunardi's updates keep it that way, until today. Now Lunardi is showing Duke as a 2 seed and Pittsburgh a 1 seed. The only event that transpired involving those two teams was Pittsburgh's loss to UConn. How does that cause any change for these two teams? Mock brackets and drafts are just pure nonsense, and I am trying to ignore them.
By the way, Carolina just won over Mami on a last second shot.
http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

[SCMatt33]

http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/wizard.gif
Can anyone explain this? Earlier this week, Lunardi had Duke as the 1 seed in the West, and Pittsburgh as a 2 seed somewhere else. Nothing happens during the week, and a couple of Lunardi's updates keep it that way, until today. Now Lunardi is showing Duke as a 2 seed and Pittsburgh a 1 seed. The only event that transpired involving those two teams was Pittsburgh's loss to UConn. How does that cause any change for these two teams? Mock brackets and drafts are just pure nonsense, and I am trying to ignore them.
By the way, Carolina just won over Mami on a last second shot.
http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

Its all about timing. He didn't write it today, but on TV last night, he said that Duke or Carolina would pass Pitt with an ACC title. Pitt's loss on it's own was not enough to drop them below us and Notre Dame passed us with a convincing win. If Duke wins are added to the picture, Lunardi thinks that will change.

EDIT - Sorry, forgot to mention: I'm not sure what you were looking at before, but I don't think Lunardi had Pitt as a two that recently. ND was a 2, but Pitt was always ahead of us.

[hurleyfor3]

So our #1s are most likely tOSU, Kansas, ND and whichever of us or unc wins the ACC tournament. I'm not sold on ND at all, but you kind of have to give a #1 to whomever you think the best Big East team is.

This works not only mathematically, but in fulfilling the needs of each team's respective fanbases. I mean, Byu and Pitt people don't obsess over what their seed is the way we, unc and Kansas fans do. Pitt folks are still trying to get over the Super Bowl, believe me.

[superdave]

So our #1s are most likely tOSU, Kansas, ND and whichever of us or unc wins the ACC tournament. I'm not sold on ND at all, but you kind of have to give a #1 to whomever you think the best Big East team is.

This works not only mathematically, but in fulfilling the needs of each team's respective fanbases. I mean, Byu and Pitt people don't obsess over what their seed is the way we, unc and Kansas fans do. Pitt folks are still trying to get over the Super Bowl, believe me.

I cant decide if I should worry more about getting a #1 or who our #2/#1 opponent in the bracket is. Can we specifically request BYU?

[hurleyfor3]

I cant decide if I should worry more about getting a #1 or who our #2/#1 opponent in the bracket is. Can we specifically request BYU?

I'd worry more about who our potential Sweet Sixteen opponents would be.

[Gewebe14]

I cant decide if I should worry more about getting a #1 or who our #2/#1 opponent in the bracket is. Can we specifically request BYU?

If we get a 2 it's very likely we will be in the east bracket with The Ohio State University due to the stupid new seeding system. Its important to the get the #1 out west with BYU.

Either that, or we have to hope K can work some of that perennial "Duke gets an easy bracket" magic

[tommy]

If we get a 2 it's very likely we will be in the east bracket with The Ohio State University due to the stupid new seeding system. Its important to the get the #1 out west with BYU.

Either that, or we have to hope K can work some of that perennial "Duke gets an easy bracket" magic

New Orleans might be closer, so if we're a #2, we might go there instead. But you're right, it's vital that we get a #1 so at least we'll have a chance to go out west. (We could get sent to New Orleans as a #1 in the alternative, however.)

And we should be rooting for BYU to win their tournament too to solidify them as a 2.

[Zerogee]

Speaking of BYU ...

Jimmer has >33 points< in the FIRST HALF of the game against New Mexico. BYU leads 47-42. If Jimmer plays out of his head, he could will that team deep in the tournament. One off night from him, and they're done, no matter who they're playing. Fascinating.

[pfrduke]

Yeah, but as a wise poster once said, it's awful hard to beat a team three times in a season... ;)

And indeed it proves to be (at least for New Mexico) ;)

[rotogod00]

Gotta think that with Notre Dame's loss, Duke controls its own destiny now. Win the ACCT and get a spot on the top line.

[SCMatt33]

ND loses! If we win ACCT, there is NO way we don't get a 1-seed now.

[sporthenry]

Now it appears New Orleans is back in play. Not sure that is terrible for Duke. The other #1 could now probably be Texas if they with the Big 12 tournament. Or BYU could steal the West. But this probably just changes ND and Duke on the S-curve. So I guess it becomes either Duke/Texas in the SE or Duke stays in the East with tOSU or they go out West with ND.
Today on ESPN, some analyst not named Lunardi said that being #5 or #4 on the S-curve didn't matter but Joe has been saying all year that it is a huge difference. B/c I would prefer getting the 4th #1 seed as opposed to playing close to home which still wouldn't be that close.

[wilson]

Gotta think that with Notre Dame's loss, Duke controls its own destiny now. Win the ACCT and get a spot on the top line.


ND loses! If we win ACCT, there is NO way we don't get a 1-seed now.Agreed with the above, but winning out this weekend will still be a tall order, especially if Nolan is really hurt. Without him (and frankly, perhaps with him), we will have our hands full tomorrow against a Hokies team that still wants to confirm their Dance ticket, and the heels would be a heck of a challenge on Sunday (I'm not dumb enough to convince myself that they'll lose to Climpsun in Greensboro tomorrow). I think our chances at a #1 are still about 50-50 right now.

[hurley1]

Well, 8-3 is a better percentage than either 9-5 or 10-4. And if Duke beats UNC and ND does not win the Big East tourney, then our 3-2 against the top 25 will also be a better winning percentage than either of them.

So the only way our profile "isn't even close" is because we played fewer games against top teams than they did. Although I think we still have more games and more wins against the top 100. It's not like we dodged anybody, though. Or play in a mid-major conference or anything.

I just checked the RPI, and as of this moment we are ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame and, get this, our schedule strength is ranked higher than both Pitt and Notre Dame. We are also ranked higher than both Big East teams in Pomeroy and also in Sagarin "predictor." I conclude that if we win the ACC (and Notre Dame does not win the Big East), our profile is better than either of them.



if duke plays like they did in the last 6 or 8 minutes of tonights game, it won't matter what anybody else does.....remember, we had a 5 point lead, 65-60 when nolan went out....we went on a 11-2 run....and ran them to death....we were fast and poured in the points.......

[SCMatt33]

Lunardi just posted his latest update (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/25697/joe-lunardis-latest-bracketology-update-7) and still has ND ahead of Duke (and Pitt for that matter). Yesterday after Pitt lost, he said that they were still ahead of Duke, but winning the ACCT would change that. I assume the same would apply here, but haven't seen him on TV yet to confirm that it would indeed be the case.

[Wander]

I cant decide if I should worry more about getting a #1 or who our #2/#1 opponent in the bracket is. Can we specifically request BYU?

Getting an Elite 8 appearance is far, far, far from guaranteed. So definitely worry more about getting a #1 seed than the opposing 1/2 opponent.

[4decadedukie]

Pitt and Notre Dame both lose in the Big East Tournament. IMHO, Duke is two ACC win away from a #1 NCAA seed.

[davekay1971]

I cant decide if I should worry more about getting a #1 or who our #2/#1 opponent in the bracket is. Can we specifically request BYU?

I'm not sure how much I want a piece of the Jimmer. I get the feeling he's gearing up for the kind of NCAAT Steph Curry had 3 years ago.

I agree with 4decade's post, btw. Pitt and ND left the door cracked for us. Now we've just got to have Nolan's toe heal up enough to kick it open.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm not Joe Lunardi, but I did stay in a Holiday Express last night. Here's my take, going into Saturday's game.

(1) ACC gets five bids. Clemson and Virginia Tech locked up their spaces Friday. BC played their way out. They're not out by much, but they have no chance to improve their resume, while Alabama and Penn State, also in the last four out, have a chance to win a spot in the field.

(2) Virginia Tech still has something to play for. Lose to Duke today and they go to Dayton for the play-in quadrupleheader. Win today and they go straight to the frst round. Clemson could fall to a spot in Dayton (especially if Va Tech beats Duke), so they need to win today too.

(3) Ohio State, Kansas and Pitt (even with their BE Tournament loss) are certain No. 1 seeds. I think Notre Dame and Purdue are out of the mix with their semifinal losses. That leaves:

(1) The ACC champion, provdied its Duke or Carolina -- and especially if one beats the other in the title game (as opposed to getting an easy path with a semifinal upset today).

(2) The Mountain West champion. BYU and San Diego State both made it to the finals. BYU looked like the favorite for the fourth No. 1 before losing Davies, then looked out after losing him and losing big at home to New Mexico. But they avenged that defeat in the MW semis and if they beat SD State for a third time, they could be back in the picture. But SD State has only lost twice this year -- both times to BYU with Davies. If they beat the Davies-less Cougars, they could get it.

(3) Maybe, MAYBE Texas, if they beat Kansas again in the Big 12 Finals. But I think they probably have too many losses.

I think Duke's win over Maryland solidified Duke as at least a No. 2 seed -- UNLESS the news comes out that Nolan is finished. That would force the committee to drop Duke in the seedings. Otherwise, I can't see anything less than a No. 2 seed, even with a loss to VPI today (with or wirthout an injured Nolan).

[Wander]

(2) The Mountain West champion. BYU and San Diego State both made it to the finals. BYU looked like the favorite for the fourth No. 1 before losing Davies, then looked out after losing him and losing big at home to New Mexico. But they avenged that defeat in the MW semis and if they beat SD State for a third time, they could be back in the picture. But SD State has only lost twice this year -- both times to BYU with Davies. If they beat the Davies-less Cougars, they could get it.

I think San Diego State gets it if they win. They'd be "undefeated" against current teams in college basketball (since BYU with Davies doesn't exist anymore), and the Mountain West isn't significantly worse than the ACC this year, if it's even worse at all. That three game sweep over UNLV is a big boost for them, as is Gonzaga winning the WCC.

[Papa John]

Ohio State, Kansas and Pitt (even with their BE Tournament loss) are certain No. 1 seeds. I think Notre Dame and Purdue are out of the mix with their semifinal losses.

I disagree. I think Pitt dropped from the #1 line with the earlier loss in the BE tourney. ND moved up to the #1 line by virtue of winning the head-to-head versus Pitt on Pitt's home floor. I think Ohio State, Kansas, and ND are the certain #1s at the moment, with Duke or UNC, Pitt, and Texas as the three other possibilities. I don't see SDSU getting the nod over any of these teams -- I think they're locked in as a 2 seed. At the moment, if Duke and UNC both fail to reach the ACC finals, I think Pitt gets the last #1 [unless Texas wins the Big 12, in which case they may get it]. If Duke and/or UNC reach the finals, then the ACC gets the last 1 seed [if only one makes it, then that team gets it; if both make it, then it goes to the winner]. Duke will be no worse than a 2 seed regardless of today's outcome.

[HorvathsGhost]

one question - doesn't the committee regularly say that they don't have time to base the bracket on the outcome of the ACC Final? If so today could clinch a #1. Of course UNC and Duke (if they were playing tomorrow) seem like two teams that would be easy to pencil in and then "switch" based on the outcome - provided the committee felt the winner was due a 1 seed and the loser a 2 seed...

[hurleyfor3]

one question - doesn't the committee regularly say that they don't have time to base the bracket on the outcome of the ACC Final? If so today could clinch a #1.

I believe there have been several years when they left a couple high slots open depending on the winner of the ACC championhip game. Examples include:

1991 - UNC beats Duke in ACC final. Unc gets #1 in East, Duke gets #2
1995 - Wake beats unc in ACC final. Wake gets #1; unc gets #2
1998 - UNC gets preferable #1 seed due to defeat of Duke in ACC championship game.
2001 - Duke beats unc in ACC final when Carlos Boozer's status is uncertain. Duke gets #1 overall seed. Unc dumped to #2.
2004 - Duke dropped from best overall #1 due to loss in acc final to Maryland.

These are just the most obvious examples. But the committee absolutely plans around the outcomes of Sunday games. I presume they have most of the bracket set except for a couple either/or contingencies. If it's a Duke/unc ACC final, I'll bet they'll keep a #1 and a #2 open this year.

[Papa John]

one question - doesn't the committee regularly say that they don't have time to base the bracket on the outcome of the ACC Final? If so today could clinch a #1. Of course UNC and Duke (if they were playing tomorrow) seem like two teams that would be easy to pencil in and then "switch" based on the outcome - provided the committee felt the winner was due a 1 seed and the loser a 2 seed...

Exactly. Thus my point -- if only one of Duke/UNC makes the ACC finals, that team gets the last 1 seed. If both, then the winner gets it. If neither, then I think the last 1 will likely go to Pitt, due to the fact that the Big East is hands down the best league this year, thus the regular season BE champ gets the nod. Texas winning the Big 12 could give reason to pause, but I still think Pitt would get it.

[A-Tex Devil]

As of today, not taking into account a potential Hokie win against us, how does Va Tech have a better resume than BC? Va Tech has ONE advantage on BC and that's its home win over us. Other than that, BC has the edge or is tied in every other category, and swept Va Tech on the season, including in a crucial bubble buster game last week AT Virginia Tech on their senior night.

The bubble is soft this year, and usually, neither really deserve it, but I'm just not seeing why Va Tech gets the advantage as of today. At all.

[Wander]

As of today, not taking into account a potential Hokie win against us, how does Va Tech have a better resume than BC?

Virginia Tech doesn't have home losses to Harvard and Yale.

[Papa John]

Virginia Tech doesn't have home losses to Harvard and Yale.

Harvard is #36 in the RPI, I believe, and would likely be seeded around a 12 if they get in with a win over Princeton today. A loss to Harvard this year is by no means a bad loss. And Harvard [if they make it] might actually be a good bet for a first round upset of a 4 or 5 seed.

[Wander]

Harvard is #36 in the RPI, I believe, and would likely be seeded around a 12 if they get in with a win over Princeton today. A loss to Harvard this year is by no means a bad loss. And Harvard [if they make it] might actually be a good bet for a first round upset of a 4 or 5 seed.

I understand Harvard is decent this year, but let's not go overboard - they still need to win their conference to get in the tournament. So, yes, losing at home to them is still a bad loss. And Yale at home is an atrocious loss.

[A-Tex Devil]

I understand Harvard is decent this year, but let's not go overboard - they still need to win their conference to get in the tournament. So, yes, losing at home to them is still a bad loss. And Yale at home is an atrocious loss.

With resumes that similar, a season sweep tells me who the better team actually is. I know it's not a huge factor for the selection committee, but if it ends up being BETWEEN BC and Va Tech for a spot, then that head to head has to carry a ton of weight as to who is better. If they have Va Tech several spots ahead of BC, I guess I'll understand, but I'll disagree.

[Papa John]

I understand Harvard is decent this year, but let's not go overboard - they still need to win their conference to get in the tournament.

Let's not go overboard? VaTech's RPI is essentially double that of Harvard's (mid-60s to mid-30s). It's conceivable, given the season we've seen of bubble teams intent on playing themselves out of the tourney, that Harvard could receive an at-large regardless of today's outcome. As I said, a loss to Harvard this year is not a bad loss, regardless of where it occurs. I'm sure Colorado [who likely played themselves in this week] and BC would both agree.

Yale? Agree -- not a good loss. Kinda like a loss to GaTech this season.

[superdave]

Anyone else think the winner tomorrow gets the #1 seed in the South? The loser could actually steal the #1 seed in the West because of the Pitt/ND losses.

[rotogod00]

Anyone else think the winner tomorrow gets the #1 seed in the South? The loser could actually steal the #1 seed in the West because of the Pitt/ND losses.

Think the winner gets the last #1 and the loser gets a 2. Don't think the committee will give a team (Notre Dame) who didn't win either the regular season title or the conference tournament a spot on the top line. But I do think they'll still give Pitt (the reg. season champ) a 1.

[SCMatt33]

Think the winner gets the last #1 and the loser gets a 2. Don't think the committee will give a team (Notre Dame) who didn't win either the regular season title or the conference tournament a spot on the top line. But I do think they'll still give Pitt (the reg. season champ) a 1.

That wasn't true 2 years ago when Louisville won the regular season outright and the tournament, but both Pitt and UConn got one seeds without either.

If we do lose tomorrow, our regional placement will be very interesting. We could easily be below Ohio State, Pitt, ND, and UNC on the S-curve with three of them getting one seeds and the fourth would get the 2 in the East (Newark being closer to those schools than any other regional site). Even if we stay ahead of Texas on the S-curve, they will get put in New Orleans ahead of us since they can't be in San Antonio with Kansas (first three in from a conference must be in different regions). That could mean that we essentially take UNC's spot on today's ESPN Bracketology. The only thing that could get us into New Orleans is that Texas' loss drops them to a three seed, but that would require two out of SDSU, BYU, Florida, UConn, and Louisville to pass/stay ahead of them.

[wilson]

Anyone else think the winner tomorrow gets the #1 seed in the South? The loser could actually steal the #1 seed in the West because of the Pitt/ND losses.


Think the winner gets the last #1 and the loser gets a 2. Don't think the committee will give a team (Notre Dame) who didn't win either the regular season title or the conference tournament a spot on the top line. But I do think they'll still give Pitt (the reg. season champ) a 1.If anyone steals a #1, it looks right now as if it might be San Diego St. They're absolutely punishing BYU right now, well on their way to avenging their only two losses. It's pretty tough to argue with the resume of a team who has beaten every team they've played this season.

[dukelifer]

Think the winner gets the last #1 and the loser gets a 2. Don't think the committee will give a team (Notre Dame) who didn't win either the regular season title or the conference tournament a spot on the top line. But I do think they'll still give Pitt (the reg. season champ) a 1.

Odd thing is that the 1 seed will go to a team simply having 2 wins over the other as their best wins. Very strange.

[SCMatt33]

If anyone steals a #1, it looks right now as if it might be San Diego St. They're absolutely punishing BYU right now, well on their way to avenging their only two losses. It's pretty tough to argue with the resume of a team who has beaten every team they've played this season.

I think you can argue that when it's not really the same team that beat you twice. BYU's current team isn't even playing like an NCAA team, let alone a top ten team. Since Davies got suspended, BYU has split a pair with an NIT team, struggled with two outside the top 150 teams (TCU and Wyoming), and gotten crushed by the only NCAA team they played (SDSU), with all of those games either at home or at a neutral site. Fortunately for BYU, they will get judged on more than just the last 5 games, but SDSU will only get credit for beating the guys who were on the floor. Other than this, their only wins against projected at-large quality NCAA teams are a 7 seed (albeit 3 times), a 10 seed, and an 11 seed. Their record vs the top 50 is just 5-2 (with one of those wins against a depleted BYU) and BYU is the only top 25 team they played.

Had they done this against a full strength BYU team, they would have had a great case, but they really lack that top end win, and they sort of got robbed at getting a crack at it because of Brandon Davies. It's pretty weird that Davies could actually end up hurting both BYU and SDSU.

[El_Diablo]

With SDSU crushing BYU, I think they are likely to get a #2 seed. Assuming that, I can't think of a scenario in which they don't go to Anaheim (all other likely #2 seeds have a closer option elsewhere). I believe the same holds true even if SDSU gets a #3 seed, and definitely if they get the last #1 seed.

So with SDSU all but locked into the Anaheim region, that means BYU is extremely unlikely to end up there due to the committee's desire to split up conference foes whenever possible. Since they can't play on Sundays, BYU is not going to Newark or San Antonio (the Friday/Sunday regions) and thus will in all likelihood go to the New Orleans region as a #3 or #4 seed. I guess we could also have #2 SDSU and #4 BYU out west (since they wouldn't play each other until the Elite Eight)...but I think the committee will split them up.

[SCMatt33]

With SDSU crushing BYU, I think they are likely to get a #2 seed. Assuming that, I can't think of a scenario in which they don't go to Anaheim (all other likely #2 seeds have a closer option elsewhere). I believe the same holds true even if SDSU gets a #3 seed, and definitely if they get the last #1 seed.

So with SDSU all but locked into the Anaheim region, that means BYU is extremely unlikely to end up there due to the committee's desire to split up conference foes whenever possible. Since they can't play on Sundays, BYU is not going to Newark or San Antonio (the Friday/Sunday regions) and thus will in all likelihood go to the New Orleans region as a #3 or #4 seed. I guess we could also have #2 SDSU and #4 BYU out west (since they wouldn't play each other until the Elite Eight)...but I think the committee will split them up.

Actually, the committee has to split them up by rule. The first three teams in from a conference must go in different regions. You would think that BYU ends up in New Orleans, but if other bracketing principles make it tough to do this, they could still end up out west and SDSU ends up in NO. Last year for example, New Mexico was a 3 seed, but was sent to the East while BYU as a 7 seed got to stay out west. There are a host of bracket principles that need to be followed and sometimes, and mid major teams are easier to move around the bracket since without as many fellow conference members to deal with, there are fewer roadblocks. I think as a 2 seed, SDSU would end up high enough to be above that fray, unlike New Mexico last year, but you never know.

[InSpades]

These bracketologists are IDIOTS. Watching ESPN and they are seriously saying that UNC is ahead of Duke right now. How is that even possible? Did UNC pass Duke in the last 2 days by squeaking out wins against Miami and Clemson?

For those who missed it... they had 3 guys on (one of them was Lunardi) and 2 of the 3 of them said that UNC should get a #1 if they beat Duke, but Duke wouldn't get a #1 if they beat UNC. The other said that Notre Dame should get the 4th #1 seed regardless.

This after looking at a stat where UNC is 2-4 vs. the RPI top 50 and Duke is 7-2 (Notre Dame was 11-5).

[ice-9]

Are you sure one of the three was Lunardi? Because his position is that Duke is currently 5th and will pass Notre Dame if we win the ACC tournament.

The crux of the argument -- championed by that hater Gottlieb -- is that Duke's non-conference wins all came when we had Kyrie on the team and thus those wins don't "count."

Sigh.

Isn't it ironic how when Michigan St, Kansas St and Butler were underperforming the analysts said we hadn't beaten anyone good?

Now that Michigtan St, Kansas St and Butler are performing again (and NCAA tournament teams, plus Marquette), the analysts are now saying those wins don't count because we got them with Kyrie?

Of course no one points out how we had two really good wins against UNC and Temple without Kyrie.

If we beat UNC again tomorrow, I don't see how we can't get a 1 seed. This is ours to lose.

[g-money]

The talking heads on ESPN's College Basketball Final are on right now and they're driving me nuts. First they're blathering as if it's a foregone conclusion that UNC is going to win tomorrow, which I find offensive because I think we are playing better basketball than Carolina right now. Then they're saying that if UNC wins tomorrow, they should be a #1 seed, but if Duke wins, Notre Dame should get the last #1 seed and we should be a 2.

So let me get this straight: If we beat the team you all think should be the last #1 seed, then we deserve to drop to the #2 seed despite being 30-4, ranked 4 in the RPI, and 2 in Pomeroy???

To me this is a classic case of ESPN's anti-Duke bias. If we beat the Heels tomorrow - which I am confident we will - we flat out deserve the last #1. And if we get it, let the talking heads continue to whine. It worked out pretty well last year when we supposedly stole the last #1 from West Virginia.

[CrsDvls]

These bracketologists are IDIOTS. Watching ESPN and they are seriously saying that UNC is ahead of Duke right now. How is that even possible? Did UNC pass Duke in the last 2 days by squeaking out wins against Miami and Clemson?

For those who missed it... they had 3 guys on (one of them was Lunardi) and 2 of the 3 of them said that UNC should get a #1 if they beat Duke, but Duke wouldn't get a #1 if they beat UNC. The other said that Notre Dame should get the 4th #1 seed regardless.

This after looking at a stat where UNC is 2-4 vs. the RPI top 50 and Duke is 7-2 (Notre Dame was 11-5).

I almost threw my remote listening to these idiots. I have no idea how they can even consider Carolina as a #1. One of those fools even said the fact they are winning close games is a good sign????? This is why I try not to listen to any show that the alarmingly not athletic and stupid Gottleib is on.

[lotusland]

The talking heads on ESPN's College Basketball Final are on right now and they're driving me nuts. First they're blathering as if it's a foregone conclusion that UNC is going to win tomorrow, which I find offensive because I think we are playing better basketball than Carolina right now. Then they're saying that if UNC wins tomorrow, they should be a #1 seed, but if Duke wins, Notre Dame should get the last #1 seed and we should be a 2.

So let me get this straight: If we beat the team you all think should be the last #1 seed, then we deserve to drop to the #2 seed despite being 30-4, ranked 4 in the RPI, and 2 in Pomeroy???

To me this is a classic case of ESPN's anti-Duke bias. If we beat the Heels tomorrow - which I am confident we will - we flat out deserve the last #1. And if we get it, let the talking heads continue to whine. It worked out pretty well last year when we supposedly stole the last #1 from West Virginia.

I just listened to the same segment. This is why I don't have cable at home. I just end up wasting time watching nonsense. No doubt the logic is absurd. Carolina is playing great right now but Duke's ranking is based on Kyrie. Yet if we beat the great Carolina team 2 out of 3 w/o Kyrie Duke doesn't get a 1 seed. Fortunately if Duke wins Sunday they will be a #1 seed regardless of what theses buffoons think should happen.

[juise]

Now that Michigtan St, Kansas St and Butler are performing again (and NCAA tournament teams, plus Marquette), the analysts are now saying those wins don't count because we got them with Kyrie?

If we applied the same logic to BYU's loss of Brandon Davies, I suppose the Cougars would be in the NIT, right?

Next thing you know, the analysts will be saying that Carolina's first five losses don't count because they had the misfortune of having to play with LDII.

[dukelifer]

These bracketologists are IDIOTS. Watching ESPN and they are seriously saying that UNC is ahead of Duke right now. How is that even possible? Did UNC pass Duke in the last 2 days by squeaking out wins against Miami and Clemson?

For those who missed it... they had 3 guys on (one of them was Lunardi) and 2 of the 3 of them said that UNC should get a #1 if they beat Duke, but Duke wouldn't get a #1 if they beat UNC. The other said that Notre Dame should get the 4th #1 seed regardless.

This after looking at a stat where UNC is 2-4 vs. the RPI top 50 and Duke is 7-2 (Notre Dame was 11-5).
Of course UNC should get the 1 seed- they have beaten Duke- even though Duke itself is not that good, according to the experts. Makes perfect sense to me. UNC is getting a lot of love because of all the Duke hate. Truth is that in the last 9 games- UNC has been in 5 very close games in which they could have lost. If they had lost 2 of those 5- this would not even be a conversation.

[El_Diablo]

Actually, the committee has to split them up by rule. The first three teams in from a conference must go in different regions. You would think that BYU ends up in New Orleans, but if other bracketing principles make it tough to do this, they could still end up out west and SDSU ends up in NO. Last year for example, New Mexico was a 3 seed, but was sent to the East while BYU as a 7 seed got to stay out west. There are a host of bracket principles that need to be followed and sometimes, and mid major teams are easier to move around the bracket since without as many fellow conference members to deal with, there are fewer roadblocks. I think as a 2 seed, SDSU would end up high enough to be above that fray, unlike New Mexico last year, but you never know.

Ah, thanks. I knew that the committee will spread the top conference opponents so as to ensure they don't meet before the regional finals, but I completely forgot about the top-3-in-different-regions principle.

I'm not sure if the New Mexico placement had something else at play (maybe they were the last #3 seed and took what was left? or maybe the committee shuffled a couple teams to rebalance? or maybe one of the other #3 seeds had to go out west for some reason?), but I see your point and agree that something similar could always happen with SDSU.

[InSpades]

Are you sure one of the three was Lunardi?

I think it was actually Fran Fraschilla (not Lunardi). Either way the entire segment was beyond dumb and made anyone watching it stupider (as others have pointed out).

You could make an argument that Notre Dame would stay as a #1 even if Duke won. However the argument that UNC would get a #1 w/ a win but Duke would not is entirely absurd. I can't find a single rankings that put UNC ahead of Duke going into the ACC tournament.

[mkline09]

I think it was actually Fran Fraschilla (not Lunardi). Either way the entire segment was beyond dumb and made anyone watching it stupider (as others have pointed out).

You could make an argument that Notre Dame would stay as a #1 even if Duke won. However the argument that UNC would get a #1 w/ a win but Duke would not is entirely absurd. I can't find a single rankings that put UNC ahead of Duke going into the ACC tournament.

I'm not certain that you can put Notre Dame ahead of Duke if Duke wins. For starters, if the conference tournaments count for anything, then you'd have to consider the Irish got knocked out in its first game in it conference tournament. If Duke wins it, I'd think that would trump Notre Dame in the minds of the selection committee considering the NCAA Tournament is played on a "neutral court" like the conference tournaments.

[Atlanta Duke]

Seth Davis tweeted that he thinks the UNC-Duke winner gets #1 in the west and the loser gets #2 in the south.

http://twitter.com/SethDavisHoops/status/46707824495050752

He has Kansas, Ohio State and Pitt as the other three #1 seeds

http://twitter.com/SethDavisHoops/status/46712470974365697

[dbd4ever]

Lunardi just said that the number one seeds are likely set(Ohio state, pitt, Kansas, and nd) and won't be revisited except maybe in the case of a Carolina win, since they would be try season and tourney camps. He said that the one seeds are usually set before the ACC tourney championship game is over. This whole process and train of thought just baffled me sometimes.

[SCMatt33]

I don't see how UNC could possibly get a 1 seed right now, even if they destroy us today. Right now, they are just 2-4 against RPI top 50, and would be 3-4 at best if they won today. Here is the official RPI as of this morning (http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2011MBBrpi1.html), as in the one that the committee actually uses. Right now, there are no ACC teams other than Duke and UNC in the top 50, and UNC's only good non-conference win was against Kentucky at home (BTW, who didn't beat Kentucky at home). I should note that that record is much worse than it was when the committee first met, as FSU and BC, whom Carolina went 4-0 against were both in the top 50, and they are a staggering 11-0 vs. RPI 51-75, but that is pretty ridiculous that they are only 2-4 vs. the top 50 and still in the mix for a one seed.

[MarkD83]

In the "Does it matter what seed you get" thread there is a nice statistically analysis based on winning percentage of why you want a number 1 seed. In the Wall Street Journal I read an article about how to fill out your bracket. The key stats there were 1) margin of victory and 2) "possession creation", which was rebounding margin plus turnover margin. Duke ranked very high in each of these and on that basis could be a number 1 seed. The bottom line is that if Duke is a number 2, the number 1 seed in that region will complain that Duke is also in that region.

[1 24 90]

Lunardi's latest projection has the Southeast Region with Notre Dame #1, Duke#2, BYU #3. I wouldn't complain about this.

By the way, Go Dayton Flyers, my alma mater!!

[MarkD83]

Adding to my previous comment, here is the latest Barcketology.
This would be a great bracket for Duke. I don't care if Duke is a #2.

SOUTHEAST (New Orleans)
1Notre Dame 16AKRON
8Missouri 9GONZAGA
5Arizona 12Virginia Tech / 12Saint Mary's
4Wisconsin 13OAKLAND
6Kansas St 11Michigan St
3Brigham Young 14WOFFORD
7Cincinnati 10Tennessee
2Duke 15NORTH CAROLINA-ASHEVILLE

[duke4ever19]

Not that I want Duke to lose today... but the bracket projection listed above my post would be more than ideal. Wouldn't mind being a #2 in that bracket one bit:)

[SMO]

Lunardi's latest projection has the Southeast Region with Notre Dame #1, Duke#2, BYU #3. I wouldn't complain about this.

By the way, Go Dayton Flyers, my alma mater!!

You and I are going to need picture in a picture today. Go Spiders!

[NashvilleDevil]

All espn is doing is setting up their tourney narrative. If Duke wins they will slam the committee for giving Duke the easiest path to the Final Four and how they're the weakest 1 seed. If Duke loses they will say UNC is in the toughest region as a 1 seed and how Notre Dame should have gotten the 2 seed Duke received. Duke can't win either way but as fans we expect that from espn.

[SCMatt33]

Not that I want Duke to lose today... but the bracket projection listed above my post would be more than ideal. Wouldn't mind being a #2 in that bracket one bit:)

Then you still don't want Duke to lose today. That bracket is based on Duke being ahead of UNC on the S-curve and getting a preferential spot in New Orleans instead of San Antonio. The only way something like this could happen in reality is if Duke wins today, but the committee decides that ND and Pitt are still 1-seeds ahead of us.

[ns7]

Just read Lunardi's post on ESPN (insider only). He says that he thinks the Duke-UNC winner will be behind Notre Dame/Pitt, but he is unsure because it's really close. Also, he doesn't know which one would drop to a #2 if Duke moved up to a #1.

[sporthenry]

Geez, Lunardi being a flip flopper. It is pretty ridiculous if Duke doesn't get a 1. They just beat both teams they just lost to on neutral courts and it wasn't even close. That means Duke can't play on the road or other teams were pumped at home, but those results aren't nearly as condemning as a neutral court outcome.
And according to CBS, Duke has 3 RPI top 25 wins, so Joe is wrong in that regard. Pitt is 6-4 which is the same win percentage as Duke.
Not to mention, the whole top 25 threshold is ridiculous. If you go to top 36, all of a sudden, Pitt is just 7-5. ND is 9-5 and Duke is 5-2. So Pitt has 2 more wins but also 3 more losses. And why do losses not matter here. At some point, those losses have to come into play.
And on a neutral site, Duke is 5-0, both ND and Pitt are 3-2.

[DevilHorns]

Notre Dame didn't even make the Big East Finals.

We won the ACC tourney.

If Notre Dame had gone to the Finals and lost, then I think it's close.

Duke winning the ACC and Notre Dame frankly not getting close to winning their tourney.... this is easy. We get that last #1 seed.

[Zerogee]

Just read Lunardi's post on ESPN (insider only). He says that he thinks the Duke-UNC winner will be behind Notre Dame/Pitt, but he is unsure because it's really close. Also, he doesn't know which one would drop to a #2 if Duke moved up to a #1.

Lunardi just said on bracketology he STILL has ND and Pitt ahead of Duke for the top line because of "top 25 wins.". Duke is 7-2 vs top 50, #4 RPI, while ND was 11-5, RPI 8, Pitt 9-5, RPI 10. Utter nonsense. I'm not worried about this one.

FWIW, Bilas said it's clear in his mind Duke is above both of them, and it's a tossup for the last One Seed.

If we play like we did today, with or without Kyrie... Look out!

[Zerogee]

Replying to my own post I guess, but the latest on ESPN'S Bracketology show...

Gottlieb is trying to say that Duke shouldn't be a #1 seed because you have to discount the wins with Kyrie Irving. Jason Williams looks like he wanted to pummel him. J: "That's why it's a _team._ It's not just one player." Fran Franschilla also thought Gottlieb was being ridiculous.

Yet Gottlieb went on and on about how Pitt has "1 good road win" whereas Duke has "0 road wins since Kyrie went down," and thus ND should get the 1-seed. Huh?

Jason points out that Kyrie was warming up and going hard and has a "good chance of being back," and Gottlieb goes, "yeah, but how good a chance? Come on," with a stupid look on his face.

The most surprising part of this exchange, though, was Gottlieb's "resume" - Oklahoma State guard from 1998-2000... and then _led the NCAA in assists in 1998._ Why did he only play 2 years? Was he a transfer into OK State, and only had 2 years of eligibility there?

[lilblue]

According to him you can't count the eight games that Irving played in because Duke is a different team! What a crock! Duke right now is playing better as a team NOW than they were at the beginning of the regular season!!!! Jerk

[duke4ever19]

Gottlieb is such a tool. Saying that Duke can't count wins that include Irving?

And then he says he's not so sure about UNC... to belittle our hard-fought victory over them I presume.

[jv001]

Oh he's such a Duke hater. On ESPN he just said that no way Duke deserves a #1 seed. He said all our big wins away from home came when Kyrie was playing. When Jay Williams tried to comment, Gotlippppp got very defensive. But for what it's worth, Coach Gotlieb said Duke should definitely get a #1. Even Digger said Duke deserved a #1. Gotlippppp will never get over Duke's beating. GoDuke!

[Aditya]

Gottlieb is such a tool. Saying that Duke can't count wins that include Irving?

And then he says he's not so sure about UNC... to belittle our hard-fought victory over them I presume.

I think maybe Gottlieb likes it when he looks stupid on TV.

[sporthenry]

Gottlieb is ridiculous. No team is the same as they are in November/December. Those games are just for the committee anyways. I think the last 10 is more indicative of a team than an RPI top 25 win in November.
But if you are going to discredit Duke's games before Dec. 5, than you have to even the playing field then. Take away ND's win vs ND b/c it happened in Nov. Then you can't say Pitt had 8 top 25 wins or whatever b/c Duke didn't have the opportunity to have any top 25 games especially when you completely discredit the KI's win.
And pretty funny to hear him discredit KI rehabbing.

[superdave]

I kinda laughed about Gottlieb mainly because his opinion is valued by no one. No one ever nods their head when he speaks.

There really is no argument - Duke is on the top tier with Kansas and Ohio State. All the data backs it up. 30-4 backs it up. Nolan and Kyle and Coach K back it up. We're a #1 and we will be at 8pm.

I think Pitt backs into the other #1 and gets shipped to Anaheim. ND probably needed to win the BET to get the #1. Didnt happen.

Oh yeah, conference tournaments do matter and are a pretty good indicator of how the seeding plays out. We were on the 1/2 bubble last year and got a 1 because of the ACCT.

[jv001]

I kinda laughed about Gottlieb mainly because his opinion is valued by no one. No one ever nods their head when he speaks.

There really is no argument - Duke is on the top tier with Kansas and Ohio State. All the data backs it up. 30-4 backs it up. Nolan and Kyle and Coach K back it up. We're a #1 and we will be at 8pm.

I think Pitt backs into the other #1 and gets shipped to Anaheim. ND probably needed to win the BET to get the #1. Didnt happen.

Oh yeah, conference tournaments do matter and are a pretty good indicator of how the seeding plays out. We were on the 1/2 bubble last year and got a 1 because of the ACCT.

Gottlieb is fast moving up on Len Elmore in my dislike for talking heads. I agree Pitt will probably get one of the #1 seeds. Mainly because of the Big East's reputation. Not saying that league doesn't deserve it, but really there are no sure bets in who will win the NCAAT. Go Duke!

[Chris Randolph]

My thoughts on Notre Dame or Duke for the final #1 seed:

Most of the "analysts" picking Notre Dame for the final #1 use the "wins vs rpi top 50 argument." And yes ND has more wins (11 to 8). BUT they also had 6 more opportunities to win against the rpi top 50. Duke against rpi top 50 won 80% of their games, ND 68%

Plus we just DOMINATED the number 7 team in the nation who people were arguing could get a 1 seed by beating us.

Plus ND didn't win their regular season conference title or even make it to the tourney finals.

Should be Duke

[sporthenry]

And Gottlieb will buy Chris Wright coming back b/c he practiced non-contact but KI obviously has no chance b/c he practiced non-contact as well.
In this new media day and age, the commentators seem to have to be controversial or at least not politically correct. And while it provides some additional insight from the likes of Bob Knight or even the NBA analysts like Van Gundy who call out the refs, you also get fools like Elmore or Gottlieb.
Gottlieb pretty much just completely did a 180 and the only difference was that it didn't involve Duke.

[Vincetaylor]

I can't even watch ESPN anymore. Way too many morons and too much negativity towards Duke.

[Rogue]

Please put all comments on the SEast/New Orleans bracket in this thread. A poll will be posted asking who you think will win the West after the brackets are announced.

-Jason



All I know,, is no matter what region DUKE goes too,, the Gotliebs of the world and all the karowhiners,, will say " Dukes in the easiest region" .. so it doesn't matter what region we go to , or who we play.. Because many project Duke to the West, due to how strong the Big East was,,,, they'll now say how weak the West is,,
For example,, if some how,, St Johns is in our region, and we play them, and beat them,, then everyone will say,, " it's because they beat you last time and you get the revenge factor " blah blah blah,,
I've accepted all the Duke Haters , national press and in state.. now we just deal with it as we raise another ACC CHAMPIONSHIP BANNER,, and HOPEFULLY ANOTHER NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP BANNER..:cool:

[MChambers]

We're a #1 and we will be at 8pm.

I think Pitt backs into the other #1 and gets shipped to Anaheim. ND probably needed to win the BET to get the #1. Didnt happen.
I'm even more optoemistic than you, because I'll think we'll be a #1 no later than 6:30 pm and probably a bit earlier.

[superdave]

Not including today's game (RPI was updated this morning) we're #4 in the RPI. Including today, we're not getting any worse.

We're #2 in KenPom not including today.

[OldPhiKap]

WE just dusted one of the hottest teams in the country. Convincingly. And played the best ball we've played all year on three consecutive days.

Should be a #1, but would not be surprised if all of the "Duke gets the easy bracket" @#$#@ bites us this year.

[devildeac]

Gottlieb is fast moving up on Len Elmore in my dislike for talking heads. I agree Pitt will probably get one of the #1 seeds. Mainly because of the Big East's reputation. Not saying that league doesn't deserve it, but really there are no sure bets in who will win the NCAAT. Go Duke!

I wonder if gottlieb has ever seen this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iVKPUNoeI4

[mkline09]

WE just dusted one of the hottest teams in the country. Convincingly. And played the best ball we've played all year on three consecutive days.

Should be a #1, but would not be surprised if all of the "Duke gets the easy bracket" @#$#@ bites us this year.

Couldn't agree more. NCAA Selection committee might feel presure to not give Duke a No. 1 seed giving how "easy" Duke's bracket was last year.

Duke is going to be punished because the Big East is deemed so good by everyone. No value seems to be put on winning the conference tournament for the big conferences. Notre Dame and Pitt get knocked out early and they are still No. 1s. Duke beats Top 10 team in the finals and the get No. 2? Makes no sense but it is what it is.

[camion]

If we get a 2 seed the 1 seed in our bracket will be very unhappy.

I think our ACC tourney performance locked up a 1 seed for us, but we'll know shortly.

[lilblue]

All this talk on espn right now is just filler, what really matters at the end of the day is what the selection committee says!

[1 24 90]

Thinking about a 2nd round opponent, the team I want no part of is Tennessee. They are one of those underachieving power conference teams that can play really well.

Mark Fox from Georgia just said that they have more Top 50 wins than Carolina so they should be in. Go Coach Fox!

[AZLA]

Talking heads aren't even mentioning the possible tiebreakers here.

Dollars and resume.

Duke is a huge draw of hardcore fans and hardcore haters. Duke get butts into seats and in the early rounds too. I think they'll want the marquee program heading up the last game of the night to keep viewership up. If some people find Duke as a #1 as controversial. So? That's good for the hype and the committee won't shy away from it.

Secondly, no one has hardly mentioned the fact Duke is returning National Champions with two key returning starters and a have a NPOY contender. Throw in Kyrie's possible return...

Typically, the teams that win big on actual Selection Sunday, carry that momentum into the selection process. They get an edge. Especially after the drubbing Duke put on Carolina.

However, if you look at Blue Devils getting a 2 seed, Duke would be in Charlotte and there is careful consideration to staying in a close region.

I still think Duke gets the 1 completely on merit, but then again, I haven't really watched Notre Dame and I'm biased.

[hurleyfor3]

Duke is a huge draw of hardcore fans and hardcore haters. Duke get butts into seats and in the early rounds too. I think they'll want the marquee program heading up the last game of the night to keep viewership up.

Usually we're the FIRST primetime game because the audience then is larger.

[davekay1971]

Hope Andy Glockner is right. He's got us number 1 seed in the West with San Diego St. as our 2 seed. He's got Kerlina as a 3 seed with Georgetown as their 6 seed.

Hmmmmmmmm....

[SCMatt33]

FWIW, on the Bracket Matrix (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm), 27 of the 34 "final" brackets posted have Duke as a 1

[Oriole Way]

Would loooove Notre Dame or Pitt as our #2, or as our #1. San Diego State would be ok with me, too.

[TheRob8801]

Whooooooooo!