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Chris Randolph
03-05-2011, 10:28 PM
Noticed this after the Clemson game, part of Coach K's presser afterwards:

On Kyle Singler’s performance:
“[Through] his sense of urgency to just keep balls alive or go after balls or knock them off of somebody so that we maintained position, Kyle made a lot of plays. We’re a little bit banged up. Kyle got hit a little bit and [Clemson] went right after Nolan [Smith]. I don’t know how much were’ going to get done tomorrow. Hopefully everyone will be ready to go for Saturday night.”

You could say Kyle is fatigued and that is causing his offense to be down. He spends soooo much energy on defense and chasing down rebounds/loose balls. Sounds to me that he is also banged up. With fatigue/injuries comes less practice time which is never good. Thoughts on this? Good cause for his offensive troubles.

And before the Nolan argument that his offensive production hasn't dropped, I think it is safe to say that Kyle spends much more energy doing other things.

fisheyes
03-05-2011, 10:37 PM
Noticed this after the Clemson game, part of Coach K's presser afterwards:

On Kyle Singler’s performance:
“[Through] his sense of urgency to just keep balls alive or go after balls or knock them off of somebody so that we maintained position, Kyle made a lot of plays. We’re a little bit banged up. Kyle got hit a little bit and [Clemson] went right after Nolan [Smith]. I don’t know how much were’ going to get done tomorrow. Hopefully everyone will be ready to go for Saturday night.”

You could say Kyle is fatigued and that is causing his offense to be down. He spends soooo much energy on defense and chasing down rebounds/loose balls. Sounds to me that he is also banged up. With fatigue/injuries comes less practice time which is never good. Thoughts on this? Good cause for his offensive troubles.

And before the Nolan argument that his offensive production hasn't dropped, I think it is safe to say that Kyle spends much more energy doing other things.

I tend to agree with you that Kyle is so intense on defense that it hinders his offense a bit. I thought Coach made a great move putting Andre on HB midway through the second half. It may have been a bit too late for Kyle.

You've got to love the guy's intensity and heart. Here's to finding your shot Kyle!

Go Duke!

CLW
03-05-2011, 10:41 PM
I tend to agree with you that Kyle is so intense on defense that it hinders his offense a bit. I thought Coach made a great move putting Andre on HB midway through the second half. It may have been a bit too late for Kyle.

You've got to love the guy's intensity and heart. Here's to finding your shot Kyle!

Go Duke!

Agreed in limited time I thought Andre was as good (if not better than) Kyle on Barnes. Going "small" could help us/Kyle against UNC in the ACCT.

TampaDuke
03-05-2011, 10:52 PM
Love Singler, but dude -- shot selection!

dukelifer
03-05-2011, 10:55 PM
Noticed this after the Clemson game, part of Coach K's presser afterwards:

On Kyle Singler’s performance:
“[Through] his sense of urgency to just keep balls alive or go after balls or knock them off of somebody so that we maintained position, Kyle made a lot of plays. We’re a little bit banged up. Kyle got hit a little bit and [Clemson] went right after Nolan [Smith]. I don’t know how much were’ going to get done tomorrow. Hopefully everyone will be ready to go for Saturday night.”

You could say Kyle is fatigued and that is causing his offense to be down. He spends soooo much energy on defense and chasing down rebounds/loose balls. Sounds to me that he is also banged up. With fatigue/injuries comes less practice time which is never good. Thoughts on this? Good cause for his offensive troubles.

And before the Nolan argument that his offensive production hasn't dropped, I think it is safe to say that Kyle spends much more energy doing other things.

I am beginning to think there is something going on with his knee or leg- but he is playing through it. His mechanics are a tad off- everything short. He will get some rest- if he regains his stroke- Duke is a tough out like last year- if not - it will be hard to recover.

thewoosh31
03-05-2011, 11:00 PM
yep. i sincerely hope that he gets some much needed rest over the next week before acc tourney starts. and that KI will be suiting up.

but of course these are all just wishes.

uh_no
03-05-2011, 11:02 PM
Love Singler, but dude -- shot selection!

I have to agree...the number of shots he takes without being set/square to the basket is phenomenal....

dukelifer
03-05-2011, 11:03 PM
I have to agree...the number of shots he takes without being set/square to the basket is phenomenal....

To be fair- he also missed a bunch a square as you can be.

Wander
03-05-2011, 11:07 PM
I don't think it's terribly complicated.

Singler hasn't improved from last year (which is fine, since he was already awesome last year).

Three of the four positions around him are worse than last year (and one is better).

Thus, his efficiency numbers go down.

JD79
03-05-2011, 11:10 PM
Come on. Singler has not shot well all year. At what point do we all admit he isn't the player we thought he was? I've been an observor since 1975 and he isn't going to the next level. Period.

OldPhiKap
03-05-2011, 11:22 PM
Y'know, I rememer threads this time last year about Jon. Why is he struggling? Will he get his shot back?

He hit some shots in the ACC final (that off the curl fade against GT was sick at the end) and that sent him on to a good enough tourney for us to win.

Kyle's offense is obviously off, but he can figure it out. The time is upon us. go Kyle, LGD!!!

dukelifer
03-05-2011, 11:26 PM
Come on. Singler has not shot well all year. At what point do we all admit he isn't the player we thought he was? I've been an observor since 1975 and he isn't going to the next level. Period.

What is your definition of a player? Singler was the reason Duke won a NC. His shooting mechanics are off- he is an outsanding PLAYER.

Bob Green
03-05-2011, 11:31 PM
Come on. Singler has not shot well all year. At what point do we all admit he isn't the player we thought he was? I've been an observor since 1975 and he isn't going to the next level. Period.

I believe this is an overstatement.

TheTrain
03-05-2011, 11:41 PM
Respectfully disagree. He simply does not have a high basketball IQ. He does not understand that the strength of his offensive game is not standing outside the arc and jacking up shots. His game at the college level can and will excel from 15 feet in.....where he can get fouled and live at the foul line while fouling out the opposition. In four years, he has not figured that out. Admittedly, I have never been a Singler fan (people who know me, know that I have admittedly strong feelings about his play)......primarily because for all of his natural ability, he has no idea how to maximize his basketball efficiency on the offensive end.

As for the person above stating that Singler was the reason why Duke won the NC last year....all I can say is that while he played well against WVU and Butler.....he was putrid against Baylor...0-10 from the field IIRC. For my money, we won because Scheyer and Smith rose to the occasion more than Singler

DukeGirl4ever
03-05-2011, 11:43 PM
Y'know, I rememer threads this time last year about Jon. Why is he struggling? Will he get his shot back?

He hit some shots in the ACC final (that off the curl fade against GT was sick at the end) and that sent him on to a good enough tourney for us to win.

Kyle's offense is obviously off, but he can figure it out. The time is upon us. go Kyle, LGD!!!


You beat me to it! I was going to mention Jon's struggles toward the end of the regular season last year. I really believe Jon was stressing because it was nearing the end of his career.

I do believe we will see the real Kyle Singler emerge...it's going to take him knocking down a key shot (like Jon did in the ACC championship game last year) and he'll be fine.

And honestly, I'm a pessimist in every area of my life except for DUKE. They've gotten me through a lot, so I will continue with the opTOEmism.

mkirsh
03-05-2011, 11:57 PM
I am beginning to think there is something going on with his knee or leg- but he is playing through it. His mechanics are a tad off- everything short. He will get some rest- if he regains his stroke- Duke is a tough out like last year- if not - it will be hard to recover.

I've been thinking this as well the last few weeks, especially with Duke's habit of not disclosing injuries (how many times have we seen a player get surgery immediately following the season when we had no idea they were hurt?). He was wearing a knee brace earlier in the season which he isnt any more. Hope the week off can help get him back to health and his normal level of play.

tendev
03-06-2011, 12:10 AM
Come on. Singler has not shot well all year. At what point do we all admit he isn't the player we thought he was? I've been an observor since 1975 and he isn't going to the next level. Period.

He gets the best out of what he has but I just don't think he is as talented as previously thought. He has certainly lost confidence in his shot and I don't recall ever having alot of confidence that come crunch time he will knock it down. Scheyer was the crunch time player last year, and to some extent Nolan, not Kyle.

DevilHorns
03-06-2011, 12:18 AM
Can we please change the title of this thread from 'Kyle Singler's Problem' to something less whiny and unappreciative?

Bob Green
03-06-2011, 12:26 AM
Can we please change the title of this thread from 'Kyle Singler's Problem' to something less whiny and unappreciative?

Done. In management classes I attended, it was taught to view problems as challenges.

ajgoodfella7
03-06-2011, 12:50 AM
I believe this is an overstatement.

I believe this is an understatement.

lotusland
03-06-2011, 02:57 AM
We need Kyle to get his mojo back on offense for Duke to go deep in the tournament so I really hope he can get it going again. Anyone who thinks Kyle isn't a player hasn't been paying attention for the past 4-years though. I hope he finds success at the next level but it doesn't change what he's accomplished at Duke. He was MVP of the final 4 so I think he pulled his weight in the tournament last year. Why do I feel as if I'm trying to prove that the world isn't flat?

marinbobbyduhon
03-06-2011, 03:10 AM
We need Kyle to get his mojo back on offense for Duke to go deep in the tournament so I really hope he can get it going again. Anyone who thinks Kyle isn't a player hasn't been paying attention for the past 4-years though. I hope he finds success at the next level but it doesn't change what he's accomplished at Duke. He was MVP of the final 4 so I think he pulled his weight in the tournament last year. Why do I feel as if I'm trying to prove that the world isn't flat?

Because fans lose all perspective when we lose to our arch rival. I almost didn't come on here tonight after we lost. I just couldn't help myself, though; and I wonder why. I sure hope that no one from the coaching staff ever reads what we write after the games, especially losses. I am embarrassed by some of the things we say about our players and our coaching staff.

Saratoga2
03-06-2011, 07:25 AM
As recently as the Clemson game, Kyle had to sit for a while due to foul problems. We were up by 11. In a few minutes we were down by 1. He can back in and we turned it around. Kyle has great value on defense, rebounding and scoring close to the basket. When we play a team with athletic bigs, the inside scoring opportunities are more limited. Kyle shot well from outside in the Oregon game, but it is hard to remember him doing that in other games this year. His outside shot has been off most of the year, so I don't think it is his being hurt or tired as much as his shot mechanics are somehow different and he tends to leave shots short. Clearly a tired player will tend to miss 3 point shots more often and even Nolan tends to fade late in games, but has the slashing drives and mid range game.

Kyle remains a very important part of the defense and offense for this team but perhaps has to reconsider his 3 point shooting role. He has done that during some of the recent games with good results.

MChambers
03-06-2011, 08:23 AM
Come on. Singler has not shot well all year. At what point do we all admit he isn't the player we thought he was? I've been an observor since 1975 and he isn't going to the next level. Period.

What's an "observor"?

MChambers
03-06-2011, 08:25 AM
Respectfully disagree. He simply does not have a high basketball IQ. He does not understand that the strength of his offensive game is not standing outside the arc and jacking up shots. His game at the college level can and will excel from 15 feet in.....where he can get fouled and live at the foul line while fouling out the opposition. In four years, he has not figured that out. Admittedly, I have never been a Singler fan (people who know me, know that I have admittedly strong feelings about his play)......primarily because for all of his natural ability, he has no idea how to maximize his basketball efficiency on the offensive end.

As for the person above stating that Singler was the reason why Duke won the NC last year....all I can say is that while he played well against WVU and Butler.....he was putrid against Baylor...0-10 from the field IIRC. For my money, we won because Scheyer and Smith rose to the occasion more than Singler
Funny, because Coach K seems to disagree with you. But I guess you know more.

RoyalBlue08
03-06-2011, 08:39 AM
I hope this thread represents the lunatic fringe of the fan base and not some widespread opinion. I hate losing to UNC as much as anyone, but if we lose the last thing I am going to do is start criticizing the kids. And if anyone is above criticism, it's got to be Kyle. The kid has been a warrior for us for 4 years. He leaves everything on the court every time he goes out there. And after winning a championship and MOP of the Final Four last year he surprises everyone by passing on the NBA (at a point at which it was going to be hard for his draft stock to be any higher) to come back and finish his four years at Duke because he loved the school and playing for the Blue Devils. I hope Kyle has a great finish to his career at Duke, but if he doesn't hit another shot in his career, for me he goes down as one of the all time great players at Duke. Go Duke!

wiscodevil
03-06-2011, 08:42 AM
Because fans lose all perspective when we lose to our arch rival. I almost didn't come on here tonight after we lost. I just couldn't help myself, though; and I wonder why. I sure hope that no one from the coaching staff ever reads what we write after the games, especially losses. I am embarrassed by some of the things we say about our players and our coaching staff.

ditto.

singler has been a phenomenal college player by any measure you wish to choose. coach k is the best coach in the game.

now, that doesn't mean they're perfect. they'll have bad games. they'll lose games. but when you read what some "fans" write after a tough outing, it really is embarrassing.

grossbus
03-06-2011, 08:56 AM
it would make me happy if he could get a call once in a while. he gets beat up as much as JJ used to.

elvis14
03-06-2011, 09:01 AM
Last year Mason chucked up a few threes and everyone around here was going on and on about how he needs to stop. He did. Mason isn't looking to chuck up threes anymore at all. Kyle can't hit a shot longer than 10' in a game with any consistency. He was 0 for 5 last night from 3 point land. Heck, I think Mason could do better shooting the 3. Kyle needs to take the same number of 3's in a game that Mason is taking, 0. I'm not just hitting the panic button after last night's loss. I've seen this for a long time. Here's a look back at Kyle's three point shooting of late:

0-5 UNC@CH
1-3 Clemson
1-7 VT
0-1 Temple
0-1 GT
0-2 UVa
2-6 Mia
1-6 UNC@CH

Since the first UNC@CH game inclusive, Kyle's 5 for 31 (16%). He's a great player and we need him on the floor as much as possible. He plays great defense, rebounds well and is without a doubt invaluable to the team (plus/minus numbers show this). But his jump shot just isn't good right now. I don't want to speculate about possible injuries, say he's defense is hampering is offense or other reasons to explain why. I just want Kyle to stop shooting shots he can't hit consistently. I really hate posting this. As a Duke fan, it's almost impossible not to love Kyle Singler but the stats don't lie and they basically back up my own observations. Does being a 16% 3-point shooter make Kyle less effective on the offensive end? Sadly, yes it does. I've always thought one of Kyle's greatest assets was his flexibility. Faced with a smaller player he can operate well down low (see the 28 he dropped on Temple) and faced with a bigger player he could use a combination of his outside shot and drives to the hoop to be effective. But without the outside shot his offense suffers, particularly against bigger teams and zone defenses. I kept waiting for his outside shot to return. At this point, with the regular season over and the tournaments starting, I think I'd rather see Kyle have better shot selection and leave the outside shooting to Nolan, Curry and Andre.

dukelifer
03-06-2011, 09:03 AM
Respectfully disagree. He simply does not have a high basketball IQ. He does not understand that the strength of his offensive game is not standing outside the arc and jacking up shots. His game at the college level can and will excel from 15 feet in.....where he can get fouled and live at the foul line while fouling out the opposition. In four years, he has not figured that out. Admittedly, I have never been a Singler fan (people who know me, know that I have admittedly strong feelings about his play)......primarily because for all of his natural ability, he has no idea how to maximize his basketball efficiency on the offensive end.

As for the person above stating that Singler was the reason why Duke won the NC last year....all I can say is that while he played well against WVU and Butler.....he was putrid against Baylor...0-10 from the field IIRC. For my money, we won because Scheyer and Smith rose to the occasion more than Singler

You do remember that Kyle played the Baylor game with a very bad wrist. Also you win the NC championship because how you play in the FF. Duke has been to a bunch and only won 4.

uh_no
03-06-2011, 09:13 AM
Last year Mason chucked up a few threes and everyone around here was going on and on about how he needs to stop. He did. Mason isn't looking to chuck up threes anymore at all. Kyle can't hit a shot longer than 10' in a game with any consistency. He was 0 for 5 last night from 3 point land. Heck, I think Mason could do better shooting the 3. Kyle needs to take the same number of 3's in a game that Mason is taking, 0. I'm not just hitting the panic button after last night's loss. I've seen this for a long time. Here's a look back at Kyle's three point shooting of late:

0-5 UNC@CH
1-3 Clemson
1-7 VT
0-1 Temple
0-1 GT
0-2 UVa
2-6 Mia
1-6 UNC@CH

Since the first UNC@CH game inclusive, Kyle's 5 for 31 (16%). He's a great player and we need him on the floor as much as possible. He plays great defense, rebounds well and is without a doubt invaluable to the team (plus/minus numbers show this). But his jump shot just isn't good right now. I don't want to speculate about possible injuries, say he's defense is hampering is offense or other reasons to explain why. I just want Kyle to stop shooting shots he can't hit consistently. I really hate posting this. As a Duke fan, it's almost impossible not to love Kyle Singler but the stats don't lie and they basically back up my own observations. Does being a 16% 3-point shooter make Kyle less effective on the offensive end? Sadly, yes it does. I've always thought one of Kyle's greatest assets was his flexibility. Faced with a smaller player he can operate well down low (see the 28 he dropped on Temple) and faced with a bigger player he could use a combination of his outside shot and drives to the hoop to be effective. But without the outside shot his offense suffers, particularly against bigger teams and zone defenses. I kept waiting for his outside shot to return. At this point, with the regular season over and the tournaments starting, I think I'd rather see Kyle have better shot selection and leave the outside shooting to Nolan, Curry and Andre.

Absolutely spot on. I'm not sitting here questioning his effort, but he's simply not making the shot (3) and this has been a problem for months now. Part of it is his shot selection on 3. Last year when he took threes they were often open and he was set...the shot came off a pass. Half his threes this year are with him running around the perimeter, then turning in the air and shooting (or fading away). He never ever makes those. I can't remember a single 'runner' on the 3 point line which he has made.

captmojo
03-06-2011, 09:15 AM
I've read "He's not squared up for his shots" and "He is squared". Relax a bit. That should be his solution. I'm not saying he should stand still and watch, like a team that used to stand around and watch what JJ Redick would do. He needs to just slightly economize his motion on offense. Right now, he's looking like a mirror image of JJ, running around screens in a circle of the half court. When he finally gets his hands on the ball for an open shot, there isn't enough gas in the tank and the compass is so spun around it hasn't settled itself to an agreement of which way is north and which is east.

A little less desperational effort to get open might be worth a try. Use that energy on the other end of the floor...defensively. Work your hardest without the ball. Relax and catch your breath back on offense. When the best shooters are at their best is when they have just a bit more time to vision the target and mentally vision the shot. They are ready before they catch the pass.


He just needs an extra moment right now, for that outside shot. Coach K is a genius, and with all due respect, I tend to disagree with his attitude that these kids don't get tired. I think it's showing in Singler's continuous 40 minutes of logging, game after game.

CDu
03-06-2011, 09:33 AM
In the 8 games following the NCSU win (beginning with the home win vs UNC), Singler and Kelly are a combined 8-54 on 3pt shots. That's just awful. That's a month with two of our four primary outside shooters shooting under 15% from 3pt range. Dawkins has gone 6-18, so he's been average/below average. Basically, it's been Smith and Curry from 3 and nobody else. For a team that doesn't have many guys who can create off the dribble and has virtually no post offense, that can be a problem.

We NEED Singler to bounce back and show the skills he showed last year. We need Kelly to hit a reasonable percentage. Otherwise, it puts a ton of pressure on Smith (who has proven to be amazing this year), Curry (who has been up-and-down as a shooter), and the defense (which has looked slow against St. John's and UNC but otherwise has done fairly well against a pretty mediocre ACC).

Somebody said that Singler was a limited offensive player. I don't think that's accurate. He can score in a variety of ways. He can score in the post, he can get putbacks, he can hit jumpshots off the curl, he can score off the dribble, he can hit the mid-range shot, he can hit the step-back jumper, and he can sometimes hit the 3. Basically, the only things he can't do are blow people away with quickness/explosiveness or jump over people. Given that he's not a freak athlete, he has about as diverse and mature an offensive skillset as you can have. He's just not hitting his outside shot (and hasn't for the last month), and that makes him look more limited.

jdk
03-06-2011, 09:34 AM
Come on. Singler has not shot well all year. At what point do we all admit he isn't the player we thought he was? I've been an observor since 1975 and he isn't going to the next level. Period.

At this point, I begin to wonder how much his draft stock has suffered. He was only a mid first-rounder after his final four run last season. Does he drop to the second round this season? I really hope not. Otherwise, he becomes the poster child for leaving early.

I'm going with the injured thing as an explanation for his poor offensive play. He wore a knee brace the first UNC game, which is about when he started his drought. The guy has made a living being one of the toughest players I've seen at Duke, so maybe he has been playing through an injury for a few weeks. In which case I ask, would it have been better for him (and the team) to sit out a few games and heal?

captmojo
03-06-2011, 09:49 AM
Basically, the only things he can't do are blow people away with quickness/explosiveness or jump over people.

Everything you wrote is accurate but I backspaced all but this, because this is the essence of the problem. Curry or Kelly should be coming off the bench and Thornton should take over as the starting point. This quickness will relieve pressure on the rest of the team to be more effective on offense.
Go back in time to the Oregon game. With Irving running the show, it frees up all the others to play the roles best. How well did Kyle produce against the Ducks? So Irving isn't available, his next natural replacement is Tyler. This causes the least disruption to the rest of the team in maintaining the role responsibilities that they had prior to his injury.

gw67
03-06-2011, 09:49 AM
I rarely think that Clark Kellog is worthy of a kudo but yesterday he pointed out that Singler has had several poor shooting games this season and he didn't think that poor shot selection was the cause. This matches my observations and the stats. In 16 ACC games, he has shot less than 40% from the field and 30% from the 3-pt line and in nine of those games he has shot even worse (his two awesome games [20-34] against Maryland skew the data). I liked Singler playing in the frontcourt but the transition to wing appeared to work last year. He was a matchup nightmare for most wings and he had a terrific junior year. As sometimes happens, a player does not shoot as well his senior year. Hopefully, he has a few more Oregon, Temple and Maryland - like games in him during the next four weeks. The Devils need him to play well.

gw67

roywhite
03-06-2011, 09:55 AM
I rarely think that Clark Kellog is worthy of a kudo but yesterday he pointed out that Singler has had several poor shooting games this season and he didn't think that poor shot selection was the cause. This matches my observations and the stats. In 16 ACC games, he has shot less than 40% from the field and 30% from the 3-pt line and in nine of those games he has shot even worse (his two awesome games [20-34] against Maryland skew the data). I liked Singler playing in the frontcourt but the transition to wing appeared to work last year. He was a matchup nightmare for most wings and he had a terrific junior year. As sometimes happens, a player does not shoot as well his senior year. Hopefully, he has a few more Oregon, Temple and Maryland - like games in him during the next four weeks. The Devils need him to play well.

gw67

Yeah, I heard that too, gw.

Kellogg's theory was that Kyle is lacking somewhat on his footwork and shot preparation, not getting his balance and positioning quite right before shooting. That, and a bit of late season fatigue in the legs, seems reasonable to me.

Kyle is a helluva competitor who can re-group and have a great postseason; it's certainly important to Duke's success.

TheTrain
03-06-2011, 10:15 AM
He is 17-71 from 3-point range since January 15 (24%)

At some point there has to be acceptance of the fact that 3-point shooting is not his strength and he needs to adjust to increase his offensive efficiency. To not recognize this, is to ignore reality

Atlanta Duke
03-06-2011, 10:15 AM
At this point, I begin to wonder how much his draft stock has suffered. He was only a mid first-rounder after his final four run last season. Does he drop to the second round this season? I really hope not. Otherwise, he becomes the poster child for leaving early.

Agreed - Kyle Singler did the right thing for the Duke program and Duke fans by coming back but the question is whether it was the right thing for him. Basketball is a business as well as a game.

As is discussed in the "should Kyrie Irving turn pro" thread, I have no idea what is most important to these young men and what part of Duke away from basketball they particularly treasure.

But from a straight $$ standpoint coming back for his senior year may cost Kyle Singler a lot of $$ - hopefully something turns around in the next month to change that possibility

coldriver10
03-06-2011, 10:33 AM
I would support mixing up the lineup for the ACCT, with the starters being:

Smith
Curry
Dawkins
Singler
Mason

This has much less to do with Kelly having a (very) bad game last night and more to do with the fact that it would force Singler to play more of the "4", which would encourage him to play inside the arc rather than taking on the JJ Redick role he seems to be doing lately.

Thoughts?

doctorhook
03-06-2011, 10:39 AM
Agreed - Kyle Singler did the right thing for the Duke program and Duke fans by coming back but the question is whether it was the right thing for him. Basketball is a business as well as a game.

As is discussed in the "should Kyrie Irving turn pro" thread, I have no idea what is most important to these young men and what part of Duke away from basketball they particularly treasure.

But from a straight $$ standpoint coming back for his senior year may cost Kyle Singler a lot of $$ - hopefully something turns around in the next month to change that possibility

Most of the criticism of Kyle is not coming from a lunatic fan base. 99% of us know what Kyle has done for the program and he plays like a warrior. That is not the point. You get accolades when you play well and you take the heat when you do not. We are not talking about one game or one play. Kyle's offense has been poor since January. My hope is that he just forgets about taking a certain number of threes, or whatever, just play within himself and do whatever it takes to win even if that means scoring fewer points. As for his NBA status, does anyone know where he would have been drafted last year? I doubt it. It would appear he has hurt his status, but maybe he was not even as high as some of us think.

Bob Green
03-06-2011, 10:40 AM
Thoughts?

I believe a shake up of the line up is inevitable. There are three possibilities I see:

1. Miles Plumlee in for Ryan Kelly resulting in increased effort to score inside.
2. Andre Dawkins in for Ryan Kelly which moves Kyle Singler to the PF position and places another shooter on the court.
3. Tyler Thornton in for Ryan Kelly which moves Kyle Singler to the PF position with Thornton taking over for Smith as the primary ball handler.

I like option #2. We need to get Dawkins back into the rotation and shooting the basketball.

superdave
03-06-2011, 10:42 AM
it would make me happy if he could get a call once in a while. he gets beat up as much as JJ used to.

Didnt Kyle get hit in the face last night, turn and look at the ref, then make a dribble drive?

superdave
03-06-2011, 10:44 AM
I believe a shake up of the line up is inevitable. There are three possibilities I see:

1. Miles Plumlee in for Ryan Kelly resulting in increased effort to score inside.
2. Andre Dawkins in for Ryan Kelly which moves Kyle Singler to the PF position and places another shooter on the court.
3. Tyler Thornton in for Ryan Kelly which moves Kyle Singler to the PF position with Thornton taking over for Smith as the primary ball handler.

I like option #2. We need to get Dawkins back into the rotation and shooting the basketball.

Dawkins was shooting about 53% through the first month of the season from 3. He is better as a spot up shooter when another player drives and his man sags. He is not quite as effective running off screens in my opinion. So I think it depends on how he's deployed.

Bob Green
03-06-2011, 10:48 AM
Dawkins was shooting about 53% through the first month of the season from 3. He is better as a spot up shooter when another player drives and his man sags. He is not quite as effective running off screens in my opinion. So I think it depends on how he's deployed.

I would've loved to see Dawkins take the five wide open 3s from the corner that Kelly missed last night. He is a shooter and we need to find him shots. I agree with you he has to be deployed properly.

Son of Mojo
03-06-2011, 11:11 AM
Yeah, the shot to Kyle's face with no call was pretty bad. Someone said before he's the anti-hanstravel in that regard and it's hard to disagree. He takes a lot of hits, jabs, pulls, and yanks with minimal calls in that direction. Kyle just gets too 3 happy sometimes when there's nothing wrong with a good 15' and in jumper, and his is usually remarkable when he's taking it consistently. Plus he drives well and knows how to use fakes when he stops his drive (where he gets fouled a lot at, too). It's almost like there's a 7 run home run mentality with the 3's--you can't get it all back at once. Chip away the stone........ I like how our offense is designed overall but when a component isn't working, adapt! Kyle's more effective with the mid-range shots playing post on offense, working in a few long jumpers (3's) into the game while playing wing on defense.

captmojo
03-06-2011, 11:47 AM
Yeah, the shot to Kyle's face with no call was pretty bad. Someone said before he's the anti-hanstravel in that regard and it's hard to disagree. He takes a lot of hits, jabs, pulls, and yanks with minimal calls in that direction. Kyle just gets too 3 happy sometimes when there's nothing wrong with a good 15' and in jumper, and his is usually remarkable when he's taking it consistently. Plus he drives well and knows how to use fakes when he stops his drive (where he gets fouled a lot at, too). It's almost like there's a 7 run home run mentality with the 3's--you can't get it all back at once. Chip away the stone........ I like how our offense is designed overall but when a component isn't working, adapt! Kyle's more effective with the mid-range shots playing post on offense, working in a few long jumpers (3's) into the game while playing wing on defense.

I have taught you well, Grasshopper. :D

Kedsy
03-06-2011, 12:14 PM
As recently as the Clemson game, Kyle had to sit for a while due to foul problems. We were up by 11. In a few minutes we were down by 1. He can back in and we turned it around.

Great point. I know a lot of people don't believe in plus/minus, but for the year (including the latest UNC game) by my calculations we are +515 when Kyle is in the lineup (1073 minutes) and only +10 (167 minutes) when he isn't. During ACC play we are -12 when Kyle is not in the game (63 minutes). I believe Kyle is more important to the team winning than any other player on the team, including Nolan.


Since the first UNC@CH game inclusive, Kyle's 5 for 31 (16%).

People have alluded to this before, but in a critical late-season 7 game stretch last year (2nd UNC game through Purdue game), Jon Scheyer shot 13 for 50 from three-point range (and that includes a 3 for 5 performance against Arkansas-Pine Bluff). Yes, this is 26% instead of 16% (22% if you don't count Ark-PB), but it also represents 37 missed shots instead of 26. I would argue it was at least as poor a shooting performance over a similar period as Kyle's current slump. And yet, Jon proceeded to pour in five three-pointers against Purdue and another five against West Virginia. It's a good thing nobody important told him to stop shooting them.


Because fans lose all perspective when we lose to our arch rival. I almost didn't come on here tonight after we lost. I just couldn't help myself, though; and I wonder why. I sure hope that no one from the coaching staff ever reads what we write after the games, especially losses. I am embarrassed by some of the things we say about our players and our coaching staff.

Amen, brother.

pfrduke
03-06-2011, 12:26 PM
He is 17-71 from 3-point range since January 15 (24%)

At some point there has to be acceptance of the fact that 3-point shooting is not his strength and he needs to adjust to increase his offensive efficiency. To not recognize this, is to ignore reality

Well, in 3 1/2 seasons before January 15 he was 285/647 (38.5%). Those 647 shots say a lot more to me about whether 3-point shooting is a strength of his than the last 71.

There's no question that he's in an outside shooting slump - one not entirely dissimilar to Scheyer's around this time last year. Maybe it's footwork; maybe shot selection; maybe mental. But he is a good outside shooter, and continuing to take good outside shots (which many - although not all - of his are) is not "ignoring reality."

dcdrumsinc
03-06-2011, 12:33 PM
Respectfully disagree. He simply does not have a high basketball IQ. He does not understand that the strength of his offensive game is not standing outside the arc and jacking up shots. His game at the college level can and will excel from 15 feet in.....where he can get fouled and live at the foul line while fouling out the opposition. In four years, he has not figured that out. Admittedly, I have never been a Singler fan (people who know me, know that I have admittedly strong feelings about his play)......primarily because for all of his natural ability, he has no idea how to maximize his basketball efficiency on the offensive end.

As for the person above stating that Singler was the reason why Duke won the NC last year....all I can say is that while he played well against WVU and Butler.....he was putrid against Baylor...0-10 from the field IIRC. For my money, we won because Scheyer and Smith rose to the occasion more than Singler

Unfortunately, you are correct. I have always felt that way, but didn't want to say anything on here to anger anyone because we were winning and it was easy for many of us to jump to his defense.

dcdrumsinc
03-06-2011, 01:17 PM
I actually disagree with those coming in defense that single doesnt get any calls or does not get the benefit of the calls. Maybe I am a pessimist, but in my very honest opinion, kyle tries to draw fouls and it looks like he gets fouled, but he isn't always fouled when he throws his body. Yes Hanbrough traveled a whole lot and got all the calls by flailing and throwing his body. I don't want Kyle doing the same and don't want him to get the same cheap foul calls, as much as I want duke to win. Simply, kyle can't finish over bigger strong players. not at this level and certainly not at the next.

MChambers
03-06-2011, 01:20 PM
Unfortunately, you are correct. I have always felt that way, but didn't want to say anything on here to anger anyone because we were winning and it was easy for many of us to jump to his defense.
If you don't think Kyle Singler has a high basketball IQ, you're watching a different game than I am. He's one of the smartest players Duke has had in the Coach K era, especially on defense.

He's definitely in a deep shooting slump, but I don't think most of the solutions offered on this board will work. He's not particularly better shooting with his feet set off a pass. He's unusual in that regard. That makes it harder for me to say he's taking bad shots, because he's shot those shots pretty well in his career. Remember the West Virginia game last year? I remember the long shot he took off the dribble late in the first half, against West Virginia's best defender. Nothing but net.

My guess is that the coaches want him to keep shooting.

superdave
03-06-2011, 02:30 PM
I believe a shake up of the line up is inevitable. There are three possibilities I see:

1. Miles Plumlee in for Ryan Kelly resulting in increased effort to score inside.
2. Andre Dawkins in for Ryan Kelly which moves Kyle Singler to the PF position and places another shooter on the court.
3. Tyler Thornton in for Ryan Kelly which moves Kyle Singler to the PF position with Thornton taking over for Smith as the primary ball handler.

I like option #2. We need to get Dawkins back into the rotation and shooting the basketball.

Would inserting Andre mean we run more? Does that hurt us in defensive rebounding too much?

Duke4life92
03-06-2011, 02:51 PM
Singler
Come on. Singler has not shot well all year. At what point do we all admit he isn't the player we thought he was? I've been an observor since 1975 and he isn't going to the next level. Period.
Comments like this is becoming sickening.This is the guy that has given his heart and soul to this team and spoiled arse fans like this make these kind of comments.

Respectfully disagree. He simply does not have a high basketball IQ. He does not understand that the strength of his offensive game is not standing outside the arc and jacking up shots
This guy is the definition of a player with great basketball IQ to accomplish what he has with the athleticism some say he is lacking.He hardly ever is just standing around,guy is the hardest working guy on the team.

dukestheheat
03-06-2011, 03:50 PM
Last year Mason chucked up a few threes and everyone around here was going on and on about how he needs to stop. He did. Mason isn't looking to chuck up threes anymore at all. Kyle can't hit a shot longer than 10' in a game with any consistency. He was 0 for 5 last night from 3 point land. Heck, I think Mason could do better shooting the 3. Kyle needs to take the same number of 3's in a game that Mason is taking, 0. I'm not just hitting the panic button after last night's loss. I've seen this for a long time. Here's a look back at Kyle's three point shooting of late:

0-5 UNC@CH
1-3 Clemson
1-7 VT
0-1 Temple
0-1 GT
0-2 UVa
2-6 Mia
1-6 UNC@CH

Since the first UNC@CH game inclusive, Kyle's 5 for 31 (16%). He's a great player and we need him on the floor as much as possible. He plays great defense, rebounds well and is without a doubt invaluable to the team (plus/minus numbers show this). But his jump shot just isn't good right now. I don't want to speculate about possible injuries, say he's defense is hampering is offense or other reasons to explain why. I just want Kyle to stop shooting shots he can't hit consistently. I really hate posting this. As a Duke fan, it's almost impossible not to love Kyle Singler but the stats don't lie and they basically back up my own observations. Does being a 16% 3-point shooter make Kyle less effective on the offensive end? Sadly, yes it does. I've always thought one of Kyle's greatest assets was his flexibility. Faced with a smaller player he can operate well down low (see the 28 he dropped on Temple) and faced with a bigger player he could use a combination of his outside shot and drives to the hoop to be effective. But without the outside shot his offense suffers, particularly against bigger teams and zone defenses. I kept waiting for his outside shot to return. At this point, with the regular season over and the tournaments starting, I think I'd rather see Kyle have better shot selection and leave the outside shooting to Nolan, Curry and Andre.

Duke is going to live or die on the shoulders of Kyle Singler this year. He's that important to the team. I think right now he's having some confidence issues, is all; I don't think it's a secret injury or anything like that. We have SUPERMAN as Coach and he is the M-A-S-T-E-R at rebuilding/rejuvenating confidence, so I'm looking forward to what he's going to do to get Kyle going again. He's done this countless times before, and he's going to do it again.

I'll tell you one thing: Singler is still tough as nails. We've seen his struggles this year but he can right it all with solid performances in the ACC tourney and then the NCAA tourney, and I believe he's going to do it. He came out and burned Maryland to the GROUND up there after the St. John's debacle, and soon we will see Mr. Singler get it back again. Kyle is a great warrior for Duke and he needs to know that the fanbase is behind him!

C'mon Kyle and let's go Duke!

dth.

dukelifer
03-06-2011, 03:55 PM
Duke is going to live or die on the shoulders of Kyle Singler this year. He's that important to the team. I think right now he's having some confidence issues, is all; I don't think it's a secret injury or anything like that. We have SUPERMAN as Coach and he is the M-A-S-T-E-R at rebuilding/rejuvenating confidence, so I'm looking forward to what he's going to do to get Kyle going again. He's done this countless times before, and he's going to do it again.

I'll tell you one thing: Singler is still tough as nails. We've seen his struggles this year but he can right it all with solid performances in the ACC tourney and then the NCAA tourney, and I believe he's going to do it. He came out and burned Maryland to the GROUND up there after the St. John's debacle, and soon we will see Mr. Singler get it back again. Kyle is a great warrior for Duke and he needs to know that the fanbase is behind him!

C'mon Kyle and let's go Duke!

dth.

This is true. Fortunately- he has done it before. If he finds his stroke and fixes the mechanics- Duke will be at a different level. He has a week to get the mojo back.

Kedsy
03-06-2011, 04:02 PM
I believe a shake up of the line up is inevitable.

While I would not be shocked if the lineup changes for game 1 of the ACCT, I do not believe it is anywhere close to inevitable.

I would love to see Andre back getting 20+ minutes a game, but sticking him or Tyler in as a starter now seems a bit desperate. Either of those would surprise me a lot. As well as Miles played against UNC, it would not surprise me so much if he enters the starting lineup, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't.

HCheek37
03-06-2011, 04:12 PM
This thread reminds me of last year...when at about this point Duke fans started to worry about another tough, team player and his shooting struggles.

Jon Scheyer's last 5 ACC games from 3pt: 11-41 or 26.8%, much lower than his season average of 38.3%.

People wondered if Jon was tired or just had lost confidence....but in the final 3 games of the tournament Jon finished 11-24 and helped us cut those nets down in Indy.

Stay confident, Kyle will turn it around from the floor and that, combined with everything else he adds, will propel this team deep into the tourney.

dukebluesincebirth
03-06-2011, 05:17 PM
I don't know what's wrong with Kyle. It looks like he's having real trouble creating his own shot against slightly quicker defenders. As with many problems of our team this year, I think Kyrie Irving would've helped tremendously. With Kyrie's ballhandling, penetrating, and passing skills, he allows guys like mason/miles/kyle to rely far less on creating their own shots, because he is so good at creating shots FOR them. With Kyrie out, this team has never really figured out how to consistently get Kyle the ball in the best position for him to score. When he has found open looks at the 3 point line, he just simply hasn't made them. There's no explanations for missed open shots, just something that randomly happens sometimes. As far as getting Kyle out of the slump, I think it will have to be a team effort. Nolan can create his own, one-on-one. Kyle needs help from his teammates in finding him in good scoring situations. No more trying to create off the dribble in a one-on-one situation, that's not Kyle's game. Set solid screens to try to get him some open mid-range shots first. Try to get him some easy back door layups. Stay away from the long 3's for a little while. If you notice since Kyrie hasn't been around to create, the 2 guys who have excelled the most are the 2 who can best create on their own (nolan and seth). The team has to find a way to fill this "creation" void left by kyrie's injury, for the sake of Kyle, R.Kelly, and the Plumlees. Lets get this back on track!

elvis14
03-06-2011, 05:31 PM
People have alluded to this before, but in a critical late-season 7 game stretch last year (2nd UNC game through Purdue game), Jon Scheyer shot 13 for 50 from three-point range (and that includes a 3 for 5 performance against Arkansas-Pine Bluff). Yes, this is 26% instead of 16% (22% if you don't count Ark-PB), but it also represents 37 missed shots instead of 26. I would argue it was at least as poor a shooting performance over a similar period as Kyle's current slump. And yet, Jon proceeded to pour in five three-pointers against Purdue and another five against West Virginia. It's a good thing nobody important told him to stop shooting them.

I'm as happy as anyone that Jon found his stroke last year and that we won the National Title. But a player like that improving greatly over the course of the tournament isn't the norm and I don't think I want to hang our national championship hopes on Kyle shooting 3's. Could lightning strike again? Yes it could and I'd love it as much as anybody. Also, Jon played the 1 and 2. Kyle plays the 3 and 4. I think it's more important for a 1 and 2 to be able to shoot from the outside than it is for a 3/4 who has the size and game to be effective in the paint. Using Jon as an example of what could go right is thus comparing apples to oranges IMHO.


Duke is going to live or die on the shoulders of Kyle Singler this year. He's that important to the team. I think right now he's having some confidence issues, is all; I don't think it's a secret injury or anything like that. We have SUPERMAN as Coach and he is the M-A-S-T-E-R at rebuilding/rejuvenating confidence, so I'm looking forward to what he's going to do to get Kyle going again. He's done this countless times before, and he's going to do it again.

I'll tell you one thing: Singler is still tough as nails. We've seen his struggles this year but he can right it all with solid performances in the ACC tourney and then the NCAA tourney, and I believe he's going to do it. He came out and burned Maryland to the GROUND up there after the St. John's debacle, and soon we will see Mr. Singler get it back again. Kyle is a great warrior for Duke and he needs to know that the fanbase is behind him!

C'mon Kyle and let's go Duke!

dth.

I agree with you. Notice that I'm not calling for Kyle to stop playing or anything ridiculous like that that. He is that tough and he is the heart of the team. I'm just suggesting that we adjust our offense to account for reality. Have him come off picks and take the ball to the hole like Nolan as opposed to shooting longer jumpers. Things like that (and yes I'm aware that I have presented a weak and obvious example).


This thread reminds me of last year...when at about this point Duke fans started to worry about another tough, team player and his shooting struggles.

Jon Scheyer's last 5 ACC games from 3pt: 11-41 or 26.8%, much lower than his season average of 38.3%.

People wondered if Jon was tired or just had lost confidence....but in the final 3 games of the tournament Jon finished 11-24 and helped us cut those nets down in Indy.

Stay confident, Kyle will turn it around from the floor and that, combined with everything else he adds, will propel this team deep into the tourney.

I love the optimism but I think we were fortunate that Jon got hot. It could happen for Kyle but we don't HAVE to count on Kyle getting hot from outside to succeed. We should plan for him to work more inside and if he happens to get hot from outside, we get him some more shots outside. I'm aware that he's shot about 700 threes but I'm more inclined to put a stronger bias on the last couple of months than on what he did his Freshman and Soph seasons.

Note, I'm not trying to be negative towards Kyle at all. I'm just recognizing the reality of the situation. We are out of time, we can't wait and hope for his outside shot to come around. I want him playing 35-40 min per game, he's that good of an all around player. But I want to see Coach K and Kyle adjust his shot selection to improve his offensive efficiency.

uh_no
03-06-2011, 05:34 PM
I would support mixing up the lineup for the ACCT, with the starters being:

Smith
Curry
Dawkins
Singler
Mason

This has much less to do with Kelly having a (very) bad game last night and more to do with the fact that it would force Singler to play more of the "4", which would encourage him to play inside the arc rather than taking on the JJ Redick role he seems to be doing lately.

Thoughts?

What has andre shown recently that warrants a starting role?

marinbobbyduhon
03-06-2011, 05:37 PM
In the 8 games following the NCSU win (beginning with the home win vs UNC), Singler and Kelly are a combined 8-54 on 3pt shots. That's just awful. That's a month with two of our four primary outside shooters shooting under 15% from 3pt range. Dawkins has gone 6-18, so he's been average/below average. Basically, it's been Smith and Curry from 3 and nobody else. For a team that doesn't have many guys who can create off the dribble and has virtually no post offense, that can be a problem.

We NEED Singler to bounce back and show the skills he showed last year. We need Kelly to hit a reasonable percentage. Otherwise, it puts a ton of pressure on Smith (who has proven to be amazing this year), Curry (who has been up-and-down as a shooter), and the defense (which has looked slow against St. John's and UNC but otherwise has done fairly well against a pretty mediocre ACC).

Somebody said that Singler was a limited offensive player. I don't think that's accurate. He can score in a variety of ways. He can score in the post, he can get putbacks, he can hit jumpshots off the curl, he can score off the dribble, he can hit the mid-range shot, he can hit the step-back jumper, and he can sometimes hit the 3. Basically, the only things he can't do are blow people away with quickness/explosiveness or jump over people. Given that he's not a freak athlete, he has about as diverse and mature an offensive skillset as you can have. He's just not hitting his outside shot (and hasn't for the last month), and that makes him look more limited.

Thanks CDu - I always enjoy your posts. You have an insight into the game and players which helps me appreciate and understand what I see on the court so much the better.

6th Man
03-06-2011, 05:56 PM
I remember last night the announcers saying that Ryan Kelly was around 70% on 2 point field goals. I can't figure out why he is shooting so many 3's on a team that desparately needs some inside scoring. I think the worst thing that ever happened to him was winning the dang McDonald's 3 point shooting contest. I know he may have a hard time down low due to lack of strength, but he'd be better served trying.

Sorry, that really has nothing to do with a challenge for Kyle. Maybe I should have started a Ryan Kelly challenge thread.

elvis14
03-06-2011, 06:17 PM
I remember last night the announcers saying that Ryan Kelly was around 70% on 2 point field goals. I can't figure out why he is shooting so many 3's on a team that desparately needs some inside scoring. I think the worst thing that ever happened to him was winning the dang McDonald's 3 point shooting contest. I know he may have a hard time down low due to lack of strength, but he'd be better served trying.

Sorry, that really has nothing to do with a challenge for Kyle. Maybe I should have started a Ryan Kelly challenge thread.

Ryan had a really bad game last night. I've thought that I'd like to see him improve his shot selection as well but I didn't want to put it in this Kyle-specific thread and I really didn't want to pile on Ryan after he had such a bad game. Kyle shot poorly last night but he didn't otherwise have a terrible game. Note that much of what I say is a player's shot selection is really coaching decisions. There's no way Ryan sets and takes 5 open threes from the corner unless coach want him to. Remember a few game ago when we came out and worked to get Ryan shots at the elbow? He was nailing them left and right (literally...both elbows!).

coldriver10
03-06-2011, 06:37 PM
What has andre shown recently that warrants a starting role?
I think it might help to get his confidence going. Either way, the big thing for me is we need to go small to get Singler to play the 4 instead of on the perimeter. If it's Thornton or if it's Dawkins, I don't care...but I do think Dawkins might need a little pick-me-up, which may come in the form of getting a start.

captmojo
03-06-2011, 06:39 PM
If you can make them, good for you.
The corner/baseline shot is the worst place on the floor to have to jack it up. Without a backboard in the picture, a percentage of the shooter's depth perception has fallen off.

A 'soft shot', one at low velocity without an abundance of rotation and that can be a bit off on range, can see some bit of forgiveness with a backboard behind it. The ball will many times rebound off the rim, go back against the board and come back to the inside of the front rim as the speed decreases even more, then fall through the net.

The corner shot, naturally does not have the assistance of the backboard, has to be perfectly on target. Pay strict attention to misses from the baseline shot. They can be completely unpredictable in their direction and rotation.

dukestheheat
03-06-2011, 07:17 PM
What has andre shown recently that warrants a starting role?

to going with that particular lineup is, in my opinion, it gets Singler one position away from the deep outside shot and may allow for him to work the paint (and, take shots closer to the rim). This way, he can cut and slash to the hoop and get fouled, and get to the line. All this could work to bolster his confidence, which has faltered. He could work the high/low as well; this also gets Andre Dawkins on the court and shooting, which is his best asset for Duke. The bottom line is that that lineup and positioning for Kyle may help him with some 'spark', thereby greatly helping Duke down the stretch, imo.

dth.

uh_no
03-06-2011, 07:19 PM
to going with that particular lineup is, in my opinion, it gets Singler one position away from the deep outside shot and may allow for him to work the paint (and, take shots closer to the rim). This way, he can cut and slash to the hoop and get fouled, and get to the line. All this could work to bolster his confidence, which has faltered. He could work the high/low as well; this also gets Andre Dawkins on the court and shooting, which is his best asset for Duke. The bottom line is that that lineup and positioning for Kyle may help him with some 'spark', thereby greatly helping Duke down the stretch, imo.

dth.

The mantra on this board is that K starts his best 5 players. If we hold that to be true, then there can be no justification for starting andre.

Bob Green
03-06-2011, 07:27 PM
While I would not be shocked if the lineup changes for game 1 of the ACCT, I do not believe it is anywhere close to inevitable.

Perhaps you are correct, we will find out this weekend, but I do not believe Ryan Kelly will continue to start due to his recent struggles. I believe Miles Plumlee will be back in the starting line-up, but I'd really like to see Andre Dawkins get the nod. Dawkins is making 43.4% of his 3-point attempts on the season compared to 33.3% for Ryan Kelly. We need to score more points so let's put our best shooters on the court. As I stated earlier in the thread, I would've loved to see Dawkins shoot those five wide open corner shots that Kelly missed.

dukestheheat
03-06-2011, 07:31 PM
The mantra on this board is that K starts his best 5 players. If we hold that to be true, then there can be no justification for starting andre.

Could it be seen as a way to get Kyle going, though?

dth.

Bob Green
03-06-2011, 07:52 PM
The mantra on this board is that K starts his best 5 players. If we hold that to be true, then there can be no justification for starting andre.

I'm not convinced Ryan Kelly is a better player than Andre Dawkins. Obviously they are different players and each has his strengths and weaknesses (don't we all and it extends well past basketball), but why can you justify starting Kelly and not starting Dawkins?

sporthenry
03-06-2011, 07:57 PM
If you can make them, good for you.
The corner/baseline shot is the worst place on the floor to have to jack it up. Without a backboard in the picture, a percentage of the shooter's depth perception has fallen off.


Actually, the corner 3 is the most efficient shot in the game. You get 3 points and you are shooting closer than the normal 3 point line. Shane Battier gets a lot of his efficiency from his ability to hit the corner 3 and that is why him and Houston were such a good fit b/c Houston loved the efficiency numbers.

http://www.82games.com/locations.htm

Bob Green
03-06-2011, 08:06 PM
Actually, the corner 3 is the most efficient shot in the game. You get 3 points and you are shooting closer than the normal 3 point line. Shane Battier gets a lot of his efficiency from his ability to hit the corner 3 and that is why him and Houston were such a good fit b/c Houston loved the efficiency numbers.

http://www.82games.com/locations.htm

This is not true. In college basketball the 3-point line is a uniform 20' 9" from the basket. Only in the NBA with the greater distance 3-point line is the corner 3 a closer shot. Sorry, nice try but inaccurate.

CajunDevil
03-06-2011, 08:23 PM
I bet K is really excited about this opportunity to remake the team heading into the ACC Tourney. Offense is the heart of our problem. Singler needs to break out of his slump and Dawkins needs confidence. There is no better way that I can see than by inserting Dawkins in starting lineup, moving Singler to 4 and sitting Kelly.

And who are our five best players? Clearly Nolan, Seth and Kyle are 1,2 and 3 (in that order, right now, imo) Mason is a solid 4. Who is 5? Miles? Dawkins? Kelly? I think going small injects energy and excites our team more than going big.

Kedsy
03-06-2011, 08:25 PM
I think it might help to get his confidence going. Either way, the big thing for me is we need to go small to get Singler to play the 4 instead of on the perimeter. If it's Thornton or if it's Dawkins, I don't care...but I do think Dawkins might need a little pick-me-up, which may come in the form of getting a start.

As I have said, I want Andre to get back up to the 20+ minutes he was playing earlier in the year. For him it seems more playing time = more confidence = better play. On the other hand, you may think we "need to go small," but based on Coach K's minute distribution to date, he disagrees.


to going with that particular lineup is, in my opinion, it gets Singler one position away from the deep outside shot and may allow for him to work the paint (and, take shots closer to the rim). This way, he can cut and slash to the hoop and get fouled, and get to the line.

If Coach K wanted Kyle to do those things and not take the outside shot, all he'd have to do is tell him. He wouldn't have to shake up the starting lineup to get Kyle to follow his instructions.

lotusland
03-06-2011, 08:30 PM
to going with that particular lineup is, in my opinion, it gets Singler one position away from the deep outside shot and may allow for him to work the paint (and, take shots closer to the rim). This way, he can cut and slash to the hoop and get fouled, and get to the line. All this could work to bolster his confidence, which has faltered. He could work the high/low as well; this also gets Andre Dawkins on the court and shooting, which is his best asset for Duke. The bottom line is that that lineup and positioning for Kyle may help him with some 'spark', thereby greatly helping Duke down the stretch, imo.

dth.

Kyle can pose a match-up problem to opponents at either the 3 or 4 spot. Theoretically he can take bigger player OUTSIDE when playing the 4 spot or go inside against a smaller defender from the 3 spot. It would be interesting to see from where Kyle's points have come when playing the 4 vs. the 3 this year. I would also be interested to know his shooting percentages and # of free -throws per minute at the 4 vs. 3 spot. I don't know the answers I'm just wondering.

Kedsy
03-06-2011, 08:35 PM
Offense is the heart of our problem.

Well, first of all, I would argue we don't have a "problem," but if we did I would not say offense is the "heart" of it. Against UNC and St. Johns, our two embarrassing losses, defense was much more of an issue than offense.


Singler needs to break out of his slump and Dawkins needs confidence. There is no better way that I can see than by inserting Dawkins in starting lineup, moving Singler to 4 and sitting Kelly.

My guess is there are lots of better ways. And the coach has to think of the team, not just the psyche of two players.


And who are our five best players? Clearly Nolan, Seth and Kyle are 1,2 and 3 (in that order, right now, imo)

Wow, is this a ridiculous statement. Kyle will probably be first team or possibly second team All-ACC. Seth is an improving player who has had two good games in a row.


I think going small injects energy and excites our team more than going big.

You may think this but, again, Coach K has had an entire season to go primarily small and he hasn't done it. Over the course of the season, Kyle has played the 4 (or 5) a little less than 13 minutes a game out of 40 (that's less than a third of the time for those who hate long division). I just can't see Coach K changing so much based on a couple road losses in a 27-4 season.

MChambers
03-06-2011, 08:51 PM
Well, first of all, I would argue we don't have a "problem," but if we did I would not say offense is the "heart" of it. Against UNC and St. Johns, our two embarrassing losses, defense was much more of an issue than offense.
I agree with 99% of the assertions you've made after the UNC loss, but I think our offense was as big a problem as the defense last night. If we had made open jumpers, UNC would have had to play more halfcourt, and our defense would have been more effective.

I actually thought our defense wasn't bad last night, but UNC's very inconsistent shooters shot very well. I don't expect that to be the case in Greensboro or Houston, should we meet again.

CajunDevil
03-06-2011, 08:53 PM
Kedsy, because K hasn't done it yet doesn't mean that he won't start the small(ish) team come first round. K has done a lot of surprising but genius moves in the past and I'm sure we will see something unique next weekend.

Ridiculous statement? Kyle has been in a slump and hasn't played like he's capable of playing for quite a while now, and Seth is surging. Reverse the two if you like - makes no difference to me. They are still our 2nd and 3rd best player however you call it. However, to say Seth is playing better than Kyle RIGHT NOW is certainly not ridiculous - more like - accurate.

True, we didn't play great defense, but we couldn't hit shots either. We had wide open looks and came up empty - time after time. And, all the while, a two of our best shooters (Singler and Dawkins) have a lack of confidence. Their confidence is key to our success in the postseason.

Devil's Advocate
03-06-2011, 09:05 PM
He is 17-71 from 3-point range since January 15 (24%)

At some point there has to be acceptance of the fact that 3-point shooting is not his strength and he needs to adjust to increase his offensive efficiency. To not recognize this, is to ignore reality

This is an arbitrary stat (as are all, actually). But, to ignore his previous body of work and say that shooting is not his strength because he has not shot well over the past 7 weeks is, well, to ignore reality.

NSDukeFan
03-06-2011, 09:05 PM
Love Singler, but dude -- shot selection!
I feel shot selection has not been a problem at any point for Kyle. Almost every shot he has taken, I have seen him make several of the same type over and over again in his career.

Absolutely spot on. I'm not sitting here questioning his effort, but he's simply not making the shot (3) and this has been a problem for months now. Part of it is his shot selection on 3. Last year when he took threes they were often open and he was set...the shot came off a pass. Half his threes this year are with him running around the perimeter, then turning in the air and shooting (or fading away). He never ever makes those. I can't remember a single 'runner' on the 3 point line which he has made.
I can't remember a single 'runner' on the 3 point line that he has taken. Or maybe, I have a different picture of runner than you do. I don't have a problem with Kyle's shot selection at all. Like most of us, I am just hoping he can get back to his career average for 3-point shooting.

I rarely think that Clark Kellog is worthy of a kudo but yesterday he pointed out that Singler has had several poor shooting games this season and he didn't think that poor shot selection was the cause. This matches my observations and the stats. In 16 ACC games, he has shot less than 40% from the field and 30% from the 3-pt line and in nine of those games he has shot even worse (his two awesome games [20-34] against Maryland skew the data). I liked Singler playing in the frontcourt but the transition to wing appeared to work last year. He was a matchup nightmare for most wings and he had a terrific junior year. As sometimes happens, a player does not shoot as well his senior year. Hopefully, he has a few more Oregon, Temple and Maryland - like games in him during the next four weeks. The Devils need him to play well.

gw67
I agree that shot selection hasn't been the problem.

He is 17-71 from 3-point range since January 15 (24%)

At some point there has to be acceptance of the fact that 3-point shooting is not his strength and he needs to adjust to increase his offensive efficiency. To not recognize this, is to ignore reality
You should have seen Kyle for the first 3&1/2 years of his career (i.e. his whole career except this current shooting slump.) Sorry you missed it, he has been one of Duke's all time greats.

I would've loved to see Dawkins take the five wide open 3s from the corner that Kelly missed last night. He is a shooter and we need to find him shots. I agree with you he has to be deployed properly.
I definitely would not have liked Andre to have been guarding Henson. I would always love to see Andre shooting open threes, maybe more than any player on the team. But...Andre doesn't get as many open threes as others do, and certainly would not have had the open looks early in the game that Ryan did. I think the team was hoping Ryan would take and make some of those to draw Henson out of the middle to open up the interior. I thought his shots looked good, but they didn't fall.

Well, in 3 1/2 seasons before January 15 he was 285/647 (38.5%). Those 647 shots say a lot more to me about whether 3-point shooting is a strength of his than the last 71.

There's no question that he's in an outside shooting slump - one not entirely dissimilar to Scheyer's around this time last year. Maybe it's footwork; maybe shot selection; maybe mental. But he is a good outside shooter, and continuing to take good outside shots (which many - although not all - of his are) is not "ignoring reality."
Exactly.

If you don't think Kyle Singler has a high basketball IQ, you're watching a different game than I am. He's one of the smartest players Duke has had in the Coach K era, especially on defense.

He's definitely in a deep shooting slump, but I don't think most of the solutions offered on this board will work. He's not particularly better shooting with his feet set off a pass. He's unusual in that regard. That makes it harder for me to say he's taking bad shots, because he's shot those shots pretty well in his career. Remember the West Virginia game last year? I remember the long shot he took off the dribble late in the first half, against West Virginia's best defender. Nothing but net.

My guess is that the coaches want him to keep shooting.

I am pretty sure you are right. I don't think this team can win an NCAA championship without a 3-point shooting contribution from Kyle. He has proven himself over his career to be a very good 3-point shooter and I hope he can hit a hot streak before he is done at Duke.

I can't believe that there is this much negativity towards one of Duke's all-time greats at the very end of his career. Questioning his basketball IQ? Get real.

uh_no
03-06-2011, 09:15 PM
I'm not convinced Ryan Kelly is a better player than Andre Dawkins. Obviously they are different players and each has his strengths and weaknesses (don't we all and it extends well past basketball), but why can you justify starting Kelly and not starting Dawkins?

Nope. I agree. Right NOW, I would have to put tyler or miles over either of them.

Zafort
03-06-2011, 09:33 PM
it would make me happy if he could get a call once in a while. he gets beat up as much as JJ used to.

Speaking of JJ, at this point in his career, Kyle has the same FG percentage as JJ did during his career (.433). Obviously his 3pt and FT stats arent in the same league, but he has more steals than JJ. Also his FT % and PPG exceed those of Shane the great.

Bob Green
03-06-2011, 09:45 PM
I definitely would not have liked Andre to have been guarding Henson.

Andre would not have been guarding Henson he would have been guarding Barnes. Singler would've been guarding Henson. Of course, you are correct that Carolina might not have left Dawkins unguarded in the corner the way they left Kelly wide open. A single player substitution changes the game dynamics.

heyman25
03-06-2011, 10:01 PM
Scheyer a year ago was stone cold. He came back and hopefully Kyle will too.However in the meantime the other 6 need to step up. There aren't any more games to go MIA in. Though the ACC tourney is not critical, it helps builds momentum for the NCAA tourney. Curry,Kelly, both Plumlees, Dawkins, and Thornton all need to play better ball.

sagegrouse
03-06-2011, 10:01 PM
I agree with 99% of the assertions you've made after the UNC loss, but I think our offense was as big a problem as the defense last night. If we had made open jumpers, UNC would have had to play more halfcourt, and our defense would have been more effective.

I actually thought our defense wasn't bad last night, but UNC's very inconsistent shooters shot very well. I don't expect that to be the case in Greensboro or Houston, should we meet again.

I agree with you comletely. Moreover, offensive ineptitude and defense problems are related. I am sure there must be an authoritative source with lot of good stats. But teams that miss shots -- esp. 3-pters -- give up defensive rebounds that lead to easy baskets. Makes it tough to play good defense when the the offense is clanking the outside shots.

sagegrouse

ncexnyc
03-06-2011, 10:29 PM
Speaking of JJ, at this point in his career, Kyle has the same FG percentage as JJ did during his career (.433). Obviously his 3pt and FT stats arent in the same league, but he has more steals than JJ. Also his FT % and PPG exceed those of Shane the great.

I'm sure if you look hard enough you'll be able to cherrypick some stats and find something that Kyle is doing better than MJ, Kareem, Dr. J, and Bird.

Kyle continues to bring it game in and game out. No one is questioning that. People are questioning his shot selection.

Another poster mentioned the nerve of people to question one of Duke's all-time greats. I'm curious if that poster would have had the nerve to question Willie Mays during the 1973 World Series.

uh_no
03-06-2011, 10:33 PM
Scheyer a year ago was stone cold.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4334/type/college/year/2010/jon-scheyer

Scheyer was FAR from cold at this point last year.

Chris Randolph
03-06-2011, 10:46 PM
I expect Kyle to bounce back and play well offensively from here til the end, whenever that may be. Not to say I haven't expected it the last month but with a good amount of time to reflect and work, I believe he will be just fine.

Baylor last year, 0-10 and then he regulates in the Final Four. He knows what it takes

COYS
03-06-2011, 10:56 PM
I agree with you comletely. Moreover, offensive ineptitude and defense problems are related. I am sure there must be an authoritative source with lot of good stats. But teams that miss shots -- esp. 3-pters -- give up defensive rebounds that lead to easy baskets. Makes it tough to play good defense when the the offense is clanking the outside shots.

sagegrouse

Thank you, Sage, for pointing this out. I am of the mind that our offense has been slipping more than our defense . . . in fact, according to our friend Pomeroy (http://www.kenpom.com), Duke is now up to 2nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Last night, two of Kelly's missed three's led to easy deuces for the Holes. That could represent as much as a 10 point swing in the game (down four instead of up six) depending on how a presumably set defense would have fared against UNC's offense. There were many other missed three's that also led to easy scores for the ugly shade of blue. The mantra "live by the three, die by the three" is waaay over used. However, we do need to make a reasonable number of threes . . . especially open threes, for our offense to regain some of it's efficiency. It will help our defense AND open things up for the offense.

I agree with Bob Green that we must get Andre into the lineup somehow (or Ryan has to start hitting threes again). Sometimes a good defense is a good offense . . . and in many ways I think the two are closely related.

Kedsy
03-06-2011, 11:36 PM
There were many other missed three's that also led to easy scores for the ugly shade of blue.

I guess it depends on your definition of an "easy score." UNC scored four (4) fast break points last night. So except for a maximum of two times I'm not sure how rebounds off of missed threes led to any easier scores than any other rebound.

Also, we were 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency before the UNC game. I'm surprised we stayed 2nd, but I guess we were enough ahead of whoever is #3 that they couldn't catch us based on one bad game.


http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4334/type/college/year/2010/jon-scheyer

Scheyer was FAR from cold at this point last year.

I guess this depends on your definition of "cold." Looking at the game log you cited, it looked to me like Jon was pretty cold at this time of year.


I agree with 99% of the assertions you've made after the UNC loss, but I think our offense was as big a problem as the defense last night. If we had made open jumpers, UNC would have had to play more halfcourt, and our defense would have been more effective.

I actually thought our defense wasn't bad last night, but UNC's very inconsistent shooters shot very well. I don't expect that to be the case in Greensboro or Houston, should we meet again.

I'm not saying defense was the sole culprit, and I agree our shooting was off last night. But UNC shot 52+% from the field last night and scored 51 points in the 1st half. I don't call that good defense.

Having said that, our defense in the 2nd half was obviously better than the 1st, and we played them essentially to a tie. I also think part of our poor 2nd half shooting was due to being behind by 12 points and having to take riskier shots in an attempt to catch up.


Kedsy, because K hasn't done it yet doesn't mean that he won't start the small(ish) team come first round. K has done a lot of surprising but genius moves in the past and I'm sure we will see something unique next weekend.

Well, my point was that K has had plenty of opportunities to make the change you advocate and has chosen not to. One difference of opinion between you and I is that Coach K would view one loss against UNC (or even two losses out of three) as a reason to radically change his philosophy at this point in the year.

I can't say this for certain, but unless necessitated by injury I can't remember Coach K ever making a radical change like you're suggesting starting in the post-season. When he has made major changes (e.g., Elliot Williams going into the starting lineup after not playing at all for months) it has usually been done around mid-February, or immediately after a major injury (e.g., 2001 after Boozer got hurt). There just isn't enough practice time to get the team comfortable with a major philosophical change.

So, if K was going to make a change to start and play the small lineup most of the game, based on history I would have expected him to start doing it a few weeks ago. Since he didn't do that, I conclude he isn't going to now. Unless Kyrie comes back and then all bets are off, really, because he'll already be making a major change inserting Kyrie into the lineup so the rationale for not changing things around won't be as strong.


Ridiculous statement? Kyle has been in a slump and hasn't played like he's capable of playing for quite a while now, and Seth is surging. Reverse the two if you like - makes no difference to me. They are still our 2nd and 3rd best player however you call it. However, to say Seth is playing better than Kyle RIGHT NOW is certainly not ridiculous - more like - accurate.

What you actually said was "And who are our five best players? Clearly Nolan, Seth and Kyle are 1,2 and 3 (in that order, right now, imo)", and sorry but that statement is ridiculous. I can't imagine anybody saying Seth is a better player than Kyle.

Another thing I question is your definition of the word "surging." Seth has had two really good games in a row, so if two games constitutes a "surge," then I agree with you, although I would seriously question the wisdom of making a statement about who is a better player based on two games. If you want to extend the number of games to six, then Seth's surge has included only two games in double figure scoring out of six (the last two), including a goose egg against Virginia Tech, and basically the same per game rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals as he had the rest of the year. This does not sound like a surge to me.

Also, I personally believe Kyle has been playing at a very high level lately (with a possible exception of the game at Chapel Hill). He hasn't shot very well, but shooting well and playing well are not at all the same thing.


And, all the while, a two of our best shooters (Singler and Dawkins) have a lack of confidence. Their confidence is key to our success in the postseason.

Kyle hasn't looked to me like he's lost confidence in recent games. He's taking the same shots he usually takes; he's just missing them. I agree that Andre seems to have lost confidence, and I hope he somehow gets it back in the ACCT.

uh_no
03-07-2011, 12:40 AM
I guess this depends on your definition of "cold." Looking at the game log you cited, it looked to me like Jon was pretty cold at this time of year.



These are the 3pt info for jon and kyle over the last 4 games of the regular season

3-5, 4-7, 3-10,3-10
0-1, 1-7, 1-3, 0-5

kyle is 2-19 in the last 6 games.....Jon was never that cold from outside at any point last year.

UrinalCake
03-07-2011, 12:44 AM
I guess this depends on your definition of "cold." Looking at the game log you cited, it looked to me like Jon was pretty cold at this time of year.

Jon was definitely cold at this point last year. People were speculating everything from him being tired to having a hurt back to questioning why none of the coaches ever corrected the sideways spin he has on his shot. He was cold all through the ACC tournament and in the final game was 1-8 from 3 until there was one minute left, when he nailed the game-clinching three. This was a great example of why shooters shouldn't stop shooting when they're cold; hopefully Kyle can turn it around too.

throatybeard
03-07-2011, 02:14 AM
I sure hope that no one from the coaching staff ever reads what we write after the games, especially losses. I am embarrassed by some of the things we say about our players and our coaching staff.

Can we put this at the top of the board? Like a banner. Forever. That would be swell.

I've long thought it would greatly improve the quality of the board if we just shut down for 12 hours after a loss, 24 hours after a loss to Carolina, and 48 hours after a season-terminal loss.

throatybeard
03-07-2011, 02:30 AM
What has andre shown recently that warrants a starting role?

Better D on Harrison Barnes than was occurring before he hit the floor.

heyman25
03-07-2011, 05:11 AM
I copied 3-3 to 3-14 2010 for Scheyer.


Wed 3/3
@ #23 MD
L 72-79 38 7-21 .333 3-10 .300 2-3 .667 5 2 1 2 3 4 19
Sat 3/6
vsUNC
W 82-50 36 4-14 .286 3-10 .300 9-9 1.000 5 7 0 0 1 0 20
Fri 3/12
vsUVA
W 57-46 38 5-17 .294 1-6 .167 4-4 1.000 5 3 0 0 0 1 15
Sat 3/13
vsMIA
W 77-74 38 4-10 .400 2-6 .333 6-9 .667 6 4 1 3 2 2 16
Sun 3/14
vsGT
W 65-61 38 4-13 .308 2-9 .222 6-8 .750 3 1 0 2 1 1 16 Not very accurate on the shooting %. Free throw shots Jon excelled. I think Kyle and the whole Duke team should be a little more patient in their shot selection. We need scoring desparately. It will help the defense and lower the number of transition plays for the opposition.

oldnavy
03-07-2011, 06:36 AM
My guess is that Kyle is going to have more "open" looks now that he is slumping. So he will have to keep shooting the jumper. Maybe he just needs some time to study flim and get some one on one with Collins. He has a week to work it out in the gym and I have faith that he will be able to identify and correct whatever minor hitch he has in his stroke. His misses are not far off, so I suspect something as simple as keeping his elbow in, or hand position on the ball could be the cause.

If he abandons his three shot now, he may be making the shot selection worse.

dukelifer
03-07-2011, 07:04 AM
My guess is that Kyle is going to have more "open" looks now that he is slumping. So he will have to keep shooting the jumper. Maybe he just needs some time to study flim and get some one on one with Collins. He has a week to work it out in the gym and I have faith that he will be able to identify and correct whatever minor hitch he has in his stroke. His misses are not far off, so I suspect something as simple as keeping his elbow in, or hand position on the ball could be the cause.

If he abandons his three shot now, he may be making the shot selection worse.

I agree on both points. Too late to change now. He will get open looks. Several things he could do though. Work more inside out. Kyle needs to see the ball go through the hoop a few times. He also needs to get his feet set better. He is usually fading and that is making the shot more difficult. He missed some straight-on threes and many are just short as if his follow through or lift is off. It is a subtle mechanics issue- but Duke is a different team when he makes those shots. But too late to change.

Saratoga2
03-07-2011, 07:07 AM
What you actually said was "And who are our five best players? Clearly Nolan, Seth and Kyle are 1,2 and 3 (in that order, right now, imo)", and sorry but that statement is ridiculous. I can't imagine anybody saying Seth is a better player than Kyle.

Also, I personally believe Kyle has been playing at a very high level lately (with a possible exception of the game at Chapel Hill). He hasn't shot very well, but shooting well and playing well are not at all the same thing.



Putting Seth ahead of Kyle doesn't make any sense to me either. I don't wish to sound negative about Seth, since his ball handling is decent and he can get hot and score some points against some guards, however his defense is suspect and his size and athleticism limits him to jump shooting, primarily from the perimeter with some mid-range. Kyle is an excellent defender, a very good rebounder and good inside scorer and has been effective scoring from the perimeter at times. He is slumping from that location but is still the second best currently playing for the team behind Nolan.

dukelifer
03-07-2011, 07:12 AM
Putting Seth ahead of Kyle doesn't make any sense to me either. I don't wish to sound negative about Seth, since his ball handling is decent and he can get hot and score some points against some guards, however his defense is suspect and his size and athleticism limits him to jump shooting, primarily from the perimeter with some mid-range. Kyle is an excellent defender, a very good rebounder and good inside scorer and has been effective scoring from the perimeter at times. He is slumping from that location but is still the second best currently playing for the team behind Nolan.

No question but Curry's growth has been excellent to even warrant this discussion. This kid is a player who likes the big time- like his brother. That cannot be taught. Some players fade under pressure and some rise to the occasion. I am pretty sure Kyrie was the latter as well.

Billy Dat
03-07-2011, 07:26 AM
Is this slump karmic payback for the popularity of the "Kyle Gets Buckets" viral video? Maybe we need to set him up in the TV announcers eagle's nest? Oh, that's right, we have no more home games.

This is what Duke gets for trying to be media friendly.

NSDukeFan
03-07-2011, 07:45 AM
Andre would not have been guarding Henson he would have been guarding Barnes. Singler would've been guarding Henson. Of course, you are correct that Carolina might not have left Dawkins unguarded in the corner the way they left Kelly wide open. A single player substitution changes the game dynamics.

I agree Andre would not have been guarding Henson, and that would have changed matchups all around, but my point is the one that you made that Andre would likely not have been as wide open as Kelly, as "no one leaves Dre in the corner."

lotusland
03-07-2011, 07:50 AM
I agree Andre would not have been guarding Henson, and that would have changed matchups all around, but my point is the one that you made that Andre would likely not have been as wide open as Kelly, as "no one leaves Dre in the corner."

Now that is funny!

NSDukeFan
03-07-2011, 08:18 AM
I'm sure if you look hard enough you'll be able to cherrypick some stats and find something that Kyle is doing better than MJ, Kareem, Dr. J, and Bird.

Kyle continues to bring it game in and game out. No one is questioning that. People are questioning his shot selection.

Another poster mentioned the nerve of people to question one of Duke's all-time greats. I'm curious if that poster would have had the nerve to question Willie Mays during the 1973 World Series.
I'm not sure if you were referring to me or not in your post, as I didn't mention the nerve of people to question one of Duke's all-time greats, but just thought that in this thread there was/is a lot of negativity about his basketball IQ and abilities just because he is in a shooting slump. I included my relevant quote below.



I can't believe that there is this much negativity towards one of Duke's all-time greats at the very end of his career. Questioning his basketball IQ? Get real.

I am trying to get the analogy between Willie Mays in 1973 and Kyle now, but I will try. Unfortunately, I never had the opportunity to see Willie Mays play and couldn't talk yet when he was playing in 1973, so I probably didn't have much intelligent to say and wouldn't have questioned him in 1973.
Besides that, Kyle Singler (if he gets out of his shooting slump and has a great finish to his senior year) could end up as one of the top 10 Duke players of all time for one team in college basketball. Willie Mays ended up being one of the top 10 players in professional baseball of all time. Kyle Singler excels in just about all phases of the game, though he does not create his shot one-on-one as well as some and doesn't create a ton of shots for others. Willie Mays excelled in all phases of the game of baseball. Other than that, I am not sure of the comparison.
Willie Mays was at the end of a very successful professional career in 1973. I believe he was 41 years old and was well past his prime. Some may have criticized his performance at that time, while acknowledging his outstanding career. I wasn't there, I am only guessing.
Kyle has not yet played professionally. I tend not to get too critical of university students playing sports and certainly not as much as I can understand people criticize professional athletes. Kyle is 22 years old and is going through a shooting slump. His form looks good, perhaps he is not as squared up as he can be or has rushed some shots, but he has often hit those kinds of shots before, so I don't have an answer. I do feel pretty strongly that he is not at the end of his career and that his skills have diminished. I am pretty sure there would have been a better time frame to compare Willie Mays and Kyle Singler as I am sure as Kyle has struggled shooting the ball lately, Mays (while likely playing outstanding defense, hustling, drawing some walks, getting on base, etc.) may have also had hitting or home run slumps when he was young and in his prime. That would have been a better analogy in my opinion, but I would not have questioned his baseball intelligence or thought that he should try to stop hitting home runs because he went through a rough stretch, even if he was a paid professional who could devote as much time as he wanted to his game.

dukeballboy88
03-07-2011, 08:36 AM
One thing good about Kyle is he aint missing by much. Most of those 3's are dead on its just a lid on the basket right now for him. I think he needs to get to the foul line early. Go to the basket and make contact, break a sweat and bang somebody to kind of get woke up before the j's start flying. Free throws can help you find the touch early and get your j going.

Kyle is a warrior, ill ride of die with him any time because he takes nothing back to the locker room. Im more worried about Dre than I am Kyle, Kyle will find it and lead us to another title!

sagegrouse
03-07-2011, 08:56 AM
I am trying to get the analogy between Willie Mays in 1973 and Kyle now, but I will try. Unfortunately, I never had the opportunity to see Willie Mays play and couldn't talk yet when he was playing in 1973, so I probably didn't have much intelligent to say and wouldn't have questioned him in 1973.
..................


NSDukeFan --

Don't worry about Willie Mays. In 1973 he was a coach for the NY Mets IIRC and was activated at the end of the season. He appeared in the 1973 World Series against the Oakland A's. I was privileged to see the first two games, which were played in the Oakland Coliseum. My Bay Area friend who got the tickets and who saw 40-50 games a year in either SF or Oakland commented that Willie Mays in that Series was probably the worst major league player he had ever seen. That comment about a player who may have been the best baseball player that ever lived. I do remember that he fell down rounding first base on a single and that he -- plus a bunch of others -- lost a fly ball in the afternoon smog in Oakland.

What does criticism of an ancient Willie Mays in the 1973 Series have in common with criticism of 22-YO Kyle Singler at the end of his college career. Not one single thing. Fuhgedaboutit.

sagegrouse

RoyalBlue08
03-07-2011, 08:57 AM
I'm pretty sure that if they had internet forums in Willie May's time they would have lit up calling him a bum every time he went 3-4 games in a row without a hit.

DukieInBrasil
03-07-2011, 10:43 AM
Kyle had an absolutely terrible game against our biggest rival. Sometimes that happens. He has had quite a few sub-par to terrible games this year, which I don't recall from years past. On the other hand he has set his career high this year and had a few other stellar games. I think it's the inconsistency that seems so strange from a player that has seemed so consistent before. In his efforts to show that he can play the 3, he has really forced on himself to do things that are not his strong suit. All of this criticism would not exist, even if he had the exact same averages, if he appeared to be improving over the course of the season or from last season. Neither of these seem to be happening. As i said, the inconsistency pretty much eliminates the perception that he has been improving.
Anyway, he is still an excellent player and usually provides really valuable contributions to the team independent of his scoring. He still did that vs UNC with effort plays, but we desparately needed his scoring and he couldn't provide it. We really needed someone to be able to contain Barnes and he couldn't do it. That doesn't make him a bad player or mean that he somehow is a liability. We'll need solid play from him in the ACCT and the NCAAs, and hopefully he'll provide it as he has in the past.

Class of '94
03-07-2011, 10:52 AM
Kyle had an absolutely terrible game against our biggest rival. Sometimes that happens. He has had quite a few sub-par to terrible games this year, which I don't recall from years past. On the other hand he has set his career high this year and had a few other stellar games. I think it's the inconsistency that seems so strange from a player that has seemed so consistent before. In his efforts to show that he can play the 3, he has really forced on himself to do things that are not his strong suit. All of this criticism would not exist, even if he had the exact same averages, if he appeared to be improving over the course of the season or from last season. Neither of these seem to be happening. As i said, the inconsistency pretty much eliminates the perception that he has been improving.
Anyway, he is still an excellent player and usually provides really valuable contributions to the team independent of his scoring. He still did that vs UNC with effort plays, but we desparately needed his scoring and he couldn't provide it. We really needed someone to be able to contain Barnes and he couldn't do it. That doesn't make him a bad player or mean that he somehow is a liability. We'll need solid play from him in the ACCT and the NCAAs, and hopefully he'll provide it as he has in the past.

I actually think Kyle did a good job on Barnes. HB was 7-17. I just think he needs to continue to move more and work himself into easier shots to get going. I know it's been said before but I think Kyle is doing alot to cover defensively for other people's mistakes and that might be taken a toll on him. Let's be honest, our interior players are basically in their first year of playing a significant role defensively and I think they're still learning. I think they'll be much improved next year; but this year, I think Kyle is having to do alot on the defensive end to mask those mistakes IMO.

flyingdutchdevil
03-07-2011, 10:59 AM
I actually think Kyle did a good job on Barnes. HB was 7-17. I just think he needs to continue to move more and work himself into easier shots to get going. I know it's been said before but I think Kyle is doing alot to cover defensively for other people's mistakes and that might be taken a toll on him. Let's be honest, our interior players are basically in their first year of playing a significant role defensively and I think they're still learning. I think they'll be much improved next year; but this year, I think Kyle is having to do alot on the defensive end to mask those mistakes IMO.

That may be the case, but HB did a better job on Singler. And that was painful to say.

Anywho, Singler is in a crazy, lengthy shooting slump. Don't know the reason, but the ACC tournament has frequently been a time for Duke players to either get out of his slump or hit another level of awesomeness. I have a feeling that Singler will get out of the funk that he's in starting Friday.

Class of '94
03-07-2011, 11:04 AM
That may be the case, but HB did a better job on Singler. And that was painful to say.

Anywho, Singler is in a crazy, lengthy shooting slump. Don't know the reason, but the ACC tournament has frequently been a time for Duke players to either get out of his slump or hit another level of awesomeness. I have a feeling that Singler will get out of the funk that he's in starting Friday.

I think it was more Kyle missing open shots that he's capable of making than HB shutting him down. Don't get me wrong, HB played Kyle well but I think Kyle's performance was more reflective of his shooting slump than HB's defense.

MChambers
03-07-2011, 11:05 AM
That may be the case, but HB did a better job on Singler. And that was painful to say.

Anywho, Singler is in a crazy, lengthy shooting slump. Don't know the reason, but the ACC tournament has frequently been a time for Duke players to either get out of his slump or hit another level of awesomeness. I have a feeling that Singler will get out of the funk that he's in starting Friday.

HB did a good job on Singler, but Kyle also missed some very open, makeable shots. If he shoots the way he has done throughout his career, no one would be saying that HB did a good job. (Same was true in Durham.)

HB also committed two silly fouls on shooters in the closing minutes. Anyone notice that?

flyingdutchdevil
03-07-2011, 11:12 AM
HB did a good job on Singler, but Kyle also missed some very open, makeable shots. If he shoots the way he has done throughout his career, no one would be saying that HB did a good job. (Same was true in Durham.)

HB also committed two silly fouls on shooters in the closing minutes. Anyone notice that?

While I agree that Kyle missed a ton of makable shots, his shooting slump is also reflective of the fact that defenses are focusing a lot of their attention on Kyle. With only two always-reliable scorers on this team (compared to 3 last year), opposing coaches are focusing a lot of their attention on Singler, forcing Duke to only have one reliable scorer (and focusing on Nolan hasn't worked for opposing coaches).

Not sure if that made sense on paper, but I think it made sense in my head...

P.S. Side note - that is why Nolan's performance this year is even more impressive - he has scored despite opposing teams trying to shut him down continuously. I feel that teams are now content with Smith getting his points and trying to shut down the other players.

DevilWearsPrada
03-07-2011, 11:23 AM
While I agree that Kyle missed a ton of makable shots, his shooting slump is also reflective of the fact that defenses are focusing a lot of their attention on Kyle. With only two always-reliable scorers on this team (compared to 3 last year), opposing coaches are focusing a lot of their attention on Singler, forcing Duke to only have one reliable scorer (and focusing on Nolan hasn't worked for opposing coaches).

Not sure if that made sense on paper, but I think it made sense in my head...

P.S. Side note - that is why Nolan's performance this year is even more impressive - he has scored despite opposing teams trying to shut him down continuously. I feel that teams are now content with Smith getting his points and trying to shut down the other players.

AGREE with you! Nolan has created his shots! I wish Kyle would drive into the basket more vs the 3pt shots. It would help, if the BIGS would create screens, and get the offensive rebounds from missed shots.

CAN the BIGS watch film from Zoubs and Lance from Feb Maryland game thur the Butler Game and duplicate that!

Kyle is putting up shots, and several went in and out. The lid on the basket was not in Duke's favor. Review tape, and NEXT GAME, NEXT PLAY.. ACC tourney!

ACC TOURNEY N GBORO.... WILL YOU BE THERE!

superdave
03-07-2011, 11:33 AM
I thought Barnes played better D on Singler in the first matchup than the second. He had a few nice plays, including a block from behind.

Also, Kyle is running off a lot of screens to get open, which is a reflection of our PG situation. We do not have a true creator at point right now so we run more plays and half-court sets. I think Kyle would get easier looks if we ran more and with a true creator drawing more defensive attention.

Think about how Battier got jump shots when he played with Jason Williams - a lot of pick and pops or open looks as the trailer on the secondary break. We rarely ran half court plays for him to come off a screen. Williams was a creator and enabled all of that. Singler and Battier and very similar, but Nolan playing point is very different from Williams (or Irving) and our offense is less fluid and more set because of it. I think this hurts our frontcourt to some extent but is better for the two guys who can create their own shots, Nolan and Seth.

flyingdutchdevil
03-07-2011, 11:37 AM
AGREE with you! Nolan has created his shots! I wish Kyle would drive into the basket more vs the 3pt shots. It would help, if the BIGS would create screens, and get the offensive rebounds from missed shots.

CAN the BIGS watch film from Zoubs and Lance from Feb Maryland game thur the Butler Game and duplicate that!

Kyle is putting up shots, and several went in and out. The lid on the basket was not in Duke's favor. Review tape, and NEXT GAME, NEXT PLAY.. ACC tourney!

ACC TOURNEY N GBORO.... WILL YOU BE THERE!

I don't really agree with you. I like Kyle's 3pt shot. He's just in a huge shooting slump. I want Kyle to keep on taking good shots. If you are patience, it will come. Also, Kyle has never been known to create his own shot. That's just not his game.

Lastly, Mason and Ryan cannot be like Zoubs and Lance. They are as different as you can get (I'll let someone else fill in the details).

Kedsy
03-07-2011, 11:51 AM
These are the 3pt info for jon and kyle over the last 4 games of the regular season

3-5, 4-7, 3-10,3-10
0-1, 1-7, 1-3, 0-5

kyle is 2-19 in the last 6 games.....Jon was never that cold from outside at any point last year.

Not sure why you chose a four game sample vs. some other number. And just because Jon was not as cold as Kyle doesn't mean he wasn't cold.

If you want four game stretches of poor 3-point shooting, here are some for Jon at various points in the season last year: 5-23, 8-32, 6-24, 8-31. In the 6 game stretch of the ACCT and first three games of the NCAAT, he shot 10-40 from 3-land. If you take away the Arkansas-Pine Bluff game, he shot 7-35 in the remaining five games. Granted it's not 2-19, but it's still pretty cold shooting.

ncexnyc
03-07-2011, 12:01 PM
NSDukeFan --

Don't worry about Willie Mays. In 1973 he was a coach for the NY Mets IIRC and was activated at the end of the season. He appeared in the 1973 World Series against the Oakland A's. I was privileged to see the first two games, which were played in the Oakland Coliseum. My Bay Area friend who got the tickets and who saw 40-50 games a year in either SF or Oakland commented that Willie Mays in that Series was probably the worst major league player he had ever seen. That comment about a player who may have been the best baseball player that ever lived. I do remember that he fell down rounding first base on a single and that he -- plus a bunch of others -- lost a fly ball in the afternoon smog in Oakland.

What does criticism of an ancient Willie Mays in the 1973 Series have in common with criticism of 22-YO Kyle Singler at the end of his college career. Not one single thing. Fuhgedaboutit.

sagegrouse

LOL you're kidding right? You just made my point for me. Mays totally embarassed himself in that World Series, yet as you point out he was one of the greatest to ever play the game. The media wasn't kind to him and if indeed there had been an internet back then he would have been raked over the coals. Even one of the greatest wouldn't have been above criticism for his poor play.

Kyle is in a shooting slump the stats have been posted for everyone to see, there's no denying it. Kyle has been a warrior and will be one of Duke's all-time greats when all is said and done, but when he does something wrong he isn't above having it pointed out. Just as in the 3 previous years he's reaped the praise of Duke fans.

Now if we are talking out extremes then I can understand that, but I'm not sure anyone has been overly critical or hurtful in their comments.

Kedsy
03-07-2011, 12:09 PM
Kyle is in a shooting slump the stats have been posted for everyone to see, there's no denying it. Kyle has been a warrior and will be one of Duke's all-time greats when all is said and done, but when he does something wrong he isn't above having it pointed out. Just as in the 3 previous years he's reaped the praise of Duke fans.

I think the issue is because Kyle is mired in a shooting slump, supposed Duke fans are now saying he has regressed as a player and has a low basketball IQ and other unsupportable things. People are equating shooting poorly with playing poorly and it's not fair to Kyle.

Also, the Mays analogy is way over the top. Mays should have retired rather than play in that World Series. Kyle has not yet reached his peak as a basketball player. Mays had "lost it." Kyle is just in a shooting slump. Big difference, IMO.

ncexnyc
03-07-2011, 12:50 PM
I think the issue is because Kyle is mired in a shooting slump, supposed Duke fans are now saying he has regressed as a player and has a low basketball IQ and other unsupportable things. People are equating shooting poorly with playing poorly and it's not fair to Kyle.

Also, the Mays analogy is way over the top. Mays should have retired rather than play in that World Series. Kyle has not yet reached his peak as a basketball player. Mays had "lost it." Kyle is just in a shooting slump. Big difference, IMO.

Since when does being a fan equate to being logical? I get myself in trouble when I try to view things objectively around here, but here goes.

At what point in time can you say a player has regressed? If our season closes after just a few more games and Kyle's shooting woes continue, would it then be fair to say that aspect of his game had regressed?

You mentioned the basketball IQ comments and how they were unsupportable. Can we really support talking about basketball IQ one way or the other? It is something that is rather subjective and is definitely in the eye of the beholder. Personally I believe Kyle has a very high basketball IQ and I base that on the being at the right place at the right time plays he constantly makes, of course that is just my opinion. Do I question his shot selection? Yes, I have, but since he continues to take certain shots he obviously has the blessing of Coach K to do so, end of story.

You find fault with my analogy. Ok, you're right Mays was washed up at that point in time, but he was at the end of his career. Kyle is at the end of his college career. You say it's just a slump, but should his career end while mired in this slump and say an 0-10 effort in his final game, how do you expect he will be remembered my many fans?

Winning a championship is extremely hard to do. I can handle a loss, but I'd be much happier to see both Nolan and Kyle go out with guns blazing scoring say 30 a piece and losing 100-99, than either one having a terrible game. I realize a storybook ending isn't likely to happen, but at least I can hope. See you Friday.

Kedsy
03-07-2011, 01:03 PM
Since when does being a fan equate to being logical? I get myself in trouble when I try to view things objectively around here, but here goes.

At what point in time can you say a player has regressed? If our season closes after just a few more games and Kyle's shooting woes continue, would it then be fair to say that aspect of his game had regressed?

You mentioned the basketball IQ comments and how they were unsupportable. Can we really support talking about basketball IQ one way or the other? It is something that is rather subjective and is definitely in the eye of the beholder. Personally I believe Kyle has a very high basketball IQ and I base that on the being at the right place at the right time plays he constantly makes, of course that is just my opinion. Do I question his shot selection? Yes, I have, but since he continues to take certain shots he obviously has the blessing of Coach K to do so, end of story.

You find fault with my analogy. Ok, you're right Mays was washed up at that point in time, but he was at the end of his career. Kyle is at the end of his college career. You say it's just a slump, but should his career end while mired in this slump and say an 0-10 effort in his final game, how do you expect he will be remembered my many fans?

Winning a championship is extremely hard to do. I can handle a loss, but I'd be much happier to see both Nolan and Kyle go out with guns blazing scoring say 30 a piece and losing 100-99, than either one having a terrible game. I realize a storybook ending isn't likely to happen, but at least I can hope. See you Friday.

You make many good points, and I agree with most of what you say here.

Regarding "basketball IQ," I have never liked that expression. But while it is surely subjective (as you say), whatever it is, Kyle has it. It bothers me that some posters are questioning that just because he's in a slump.

If Kyle's slump extends to the end of our season, can we say that aspect of his game has regressed? Hmm, I'm not sure. First off, I think there is a huge leap from saying one aspect has regressed to saying his entire game has regressed as several posters have intimated. They would have gotten a lot less argument from me if they'd spoken only about one aspect -- his shooting -- because he clearly hasn't shot well for the past month or so. But I don't know that shooting is something that regresses. Rather I look at shooting slumps as a temporary glitch in the shooter's mechanics or confidence. Everyone has such slumps, at least occasionally, and most good shooters snap out of them. To me, that phenomenon is not accurately encompassed by the word "regressed," although admittedly this could be semantics on my part.

Regarding your statement that I bolded above, I think you're probably right, but that's what bothers me most of all. And I believe that's what NSDukeFan was trying to say earlier before the Mays thing came up. I don't care if Kyle never hits another shot -- after everything he has done for Duke, a shooting slump for a month or even two should absolutely not tarnish how we fans remember him.

MChambers
03-07-2011, 01:06 PM
Regarding your statement that I bolded above, I think you're probably right, but that's what bothers me most of all. And I believe that's what NSDukeFan was trying to say earlier before the Mays thing came up. I don't care if Kyle never hits another shot -- after everything he has done for Duke, a shooting slump for a month or even two should absolutely not tarnish how we fans remember him.
Agreed. I'll remember him as one of Duke's all time greats, a player who belongs on the list of top ten players under Coach K.

wilko
03-07-2011, 01:40 PM
I thought Barnes played better D on Singler in the first matchup than the second. He had a few nice plays, including a block from behind.

Also, Kyle is running off a lot of screens to get open, which is a reflection of our PG situation. We do not have a true creator at point right now so we run more plays and half-court sets. I think Kyle would get easier looks if we ran more and with a true creator drawing more defensive attention.

Think about how Battier got jump shots when he played with Jason Williams - a lot of pick and pops or open looks as the trailer on the secondary break. We rarely ran half court plays for him to come off a screen. Williams was a creator and enabled all of that. Singler and Battier and very similar, but Nolan playing point is very different from Williams (or Irving) and our offense is less fluid and more set because of it. I think this hurts our frontcourt to some extent but is better for the two guys who can create their own shots, Nolan and Seth.

BINGO!

1st off - Blame the loss on me. Its been a couple of days so I can start to talk about it. I make it a point NEVER to go to CH and I had to go look at a car. I put my family needs for a 2nd car ahead of my "fandom'? eh, well you get the point, sorry.

To the post at hand, I was thinking along the same lines and have a couple of additional observations to add. (Apologies if this had been mentioned previously, I didn't feel like reading back thru the entire thread on a depressing loss...)

The key point about the difference in HB's D vs: Kyles D is whose behind them respectively. Kyles drives are predicated on spacing and angles, he isn't gonna blow-by most UNC defenders on sheer foot-speed alone, and if he DID... where's to go? into Henson or Zeller? That smells like trouble.

On the few early drives Kyle DID try, he had the ball successfully stripped from him. So I cant really fault him on that. For that drive to really work well Kelly needed to connect on a decent % of those 3's so someone is forced to step out and play him, moving some lumber out of the way to make it easier on Kyle (+ Nolan and Seth for that matter). Kelly going oh-fer on 5 or 6 shots (seemed like) from the corner was a BIG key to the game in my mind. It wasn't the ONLY thing that lost us the game, but it was still big.

I would have liked to have seen him step in a foot or 3 and try a closer shot, just find the range and sniff a rythym. Or just drive the lane and pretend hes a bowling ball and send the Defenders flying like pins... at least that would have negated transition O by UNC after a miss.

Nolan and Seth (and Dre and TT) needed to do a better job of stopping the ball and blocking KMs view of the court in transition. They ate us alive getting back on D after a miss. And its not that we were "slow" or not trying.. They were just that fast and good at it. Most teams couldn't do that to us as consistently as they did. If we need to foul to spot a fast-break so be it.

HB by comparison, IF he lost Singler (or his primary defender) his path to the basket was easier, as our help side guys aren't as good/intimidating as Henson and to a lesser extent Zeller (at least lately) on D.

Not a cheap shot at our Guys - that's just not who they are; or were in that game..

I saw the frustration on Miles and Masons faces during that game. I keep thinking they are due for an explosion of output. Miles had some very nice moments in the UNC game and Mason did some nice things VS: CU. Before each game I keep thinking today's the day the light goes on and "It" finally happens for them and they go off.

If our draw is WF in the 1st round I'd want to use an entire half to feed MM1, MM2 and RK in the paint. They have been making some strides and need confidence to call for the ball. Their teammates need to trust them when they call for it.

Anyways.. I could go on but this is long enuff and I have work to do..
Go Duke

Kedsy
03-07-2011, 02:53 PM
at least that would have negated transition O by UNC after a miss.

I have said this several times already, but UNC only scored 4 fast break points. Our problem was not UNC's "transition O."


If our draw is WF in the 1st round I'd want to use an entire half to feed MM1, MM2 and RK in the paint.

I'm pretty sure our draw in the 1st round is either Maryland or NC State. We can't play Wake until the championship game, and that has approximately a zero percent chance of happening.

pfrduke
03-07-2011, 03:06 PM
I have said this several times already, but UNC only scored 4 fast break points. Our problem was not UNC's "transition O."

I recognize that the box score lists only 4 fast break points, but I do feel like their transition offense was effective in the sense that we were often in situations where we weren't set on defense when the ball came up the court, and even if those were not fast break points per se, they were "transition" baskets made easier by them pushing the ball off a miss.

For example, I can think of at least 3 transition scores just off the top of my head - 1) after we cut the lead to 5 at the start of the second half, Barnes got a steal and layup; 2) after trying to make an inbounds steal, Mason got beat down the court by Zeller and Marshall found him in transition for an easy dunk; 3) Marshall's spin move around Seth came in open court play.

Only the first is listed as a fast break point in the box score (the other is a bucket by Leslie McDonald that I have no recollection of), but all three were transition opportunities where our inability to get set resulted in points for UNC. There are several spots in the box score where they had made shots coming less than 10 seconds after a defensive rebound - I would consider those to be transition points, even if they didn't come on a fast break.

pfrduke
03-07-2011, 03:11 PM
There are several spots in the box score where they had made shots coming less than 10 seconds after a defensive rebound - I would consider those to be transition points, even if they didn't come on a fast break.

Specifically, there are 8 scores, for 15 total points (two were free throw opportunities, and they went 3-4) that Carolina had that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound. Interestingly enough, neither of the two fast break buckets are included in that list - McDonald's came off of a Duke make, and Barnes's came off of a steal.

wilko
03-07-2011, 03:30 PM
I have said this several times already, but UNC only scored 4 fast break points. Our problem was not UNC's "transition O."

And I said, I didn't see the need to torture myself by re-reading the entire thread, so thanks for researching that item and cutting to the chase.

Really? Just 4? Huh, sure felt like more... I guess that backs up my statements that most teams couldn't do that to us.. Now I don't feel so bad on that one.

Maybe I was too generous in wrapping UNC's rebounding at our basket in with their transition O. Sure feels like a lot of that happened too, forgive my confusion.

This was a secondary comment to my "Make some shots so Kyle has better spacing" thought.



I'm pretty sure our draw in the 1st round is either Maryland or NC State. We can't play Wake until the championship game, and that has approximately a zero percent chance of happening.

Eh, semantics. Bigger picture. The key point I was trying to make is that we should feed the Post and look for offensive production in the paint. I wasn't really getting bogged down in who/when the opponent would be. Match-ups are obviously a consideration, but, I think the larger point stands. Feed the post.

FWIW - I haven't given a 2nd thought to ACC Tourney seeding since League expansion.
Much like "make some shots" above, the brackets come down to win your games. Do what you need to do to get better, win your game. Seeding wont alter that.

Kedsy
03-07-2011, 03:35 PM
Specifically, there are 8 scores, for 15 total points (two were free throw opportunities, and they went 3-4) that Carolina had that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound. Interestingly enough, neither of the two fast break buckets are included in that list - McDonald's came off of a Duke make, and Barnes's came off of a steal.

Well, we can agree to disagree, but 10 seconds seems like an awfully long time to count as transition points. I understand your point that the defense may not be set in that time, although what really matters for that is how quickly they get the ball over half court rather than how quickly they score.

Moreover, assuming the big men know how to throw an outlet pass, I'm not sure a long rebound on a three-point miss gives them much more of an advantage than a good outlet after a two-point miss. Of the 8 scores, how many came after missed three-pointers?

Finally, I remember Marshall's spin move and my recollection (which admittedly could be faulty) is it felt like it came in the middle of a half-court set. If that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound then to me it reinforces my point that 10 seconds is a long time to be considered transition.

Kedsy
03-07-2011, 03:48 PM
Specifically, there are 8 scores, for 15 total points (two were free throw opportunities, and they went 3-4) that Carolina had that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound. Interestingly enough, neither of the two fast break buckets are included in that list - McDonald's came off of a Duke make, and Barnes's came off of a steal.

I admit I'm not as good as you are at going through the play-by-play, but I just tried. First of all, there was one missed three, and defensive rebound (by Zeller) after which Mason fouled on the rebound, leading to two made free throws. I'm assuming these were not among the made free throws you mentioned, right?

Anyway, not counting that, I counted four UNC scores coming within 10 seconds after missed three-pointers, but two of the four came in the first minute or so, while UNC's walk-ons were playing, so I'm not sure how much information we can glean from those. Which means (assuming I counted properly) even using your definition of transition, UNC's regular lineup only scored twice in transition off of missed three-pointers.

UNC likes to push the ball. Based on the data, it doesn't seem like our missed threes aided them so much that we'd have to do something drastic to stop it from happening. In my opinion, of course.

dukeimac
03-07-2011, 04:43 PM
Duke didn't lose this game because of what UNC did, they lost it because Duke couldn't hit an open three to save their lives.

Kyle 0-5
Ryan 0-6
Nolan 0-4

You live by the 3 you die by the 3.

Duke died by the 3. End of story.

elvis14
03-07-2011, 05:39 PM
Duke didn't lose this game because of what UNC did, they lost it because Duke couldn't hit an open three to save their lives.

Kyle 0-5
Ryan 0-6
Nolan 0-4

You live by the 3 you die by the 3.

Duke died by the 3. End of story.

Let's not let this thread deteriorate into a discussion about one game, UNC@CH. It's a discussion about the state of Kyle's game. If you read earlier in the thread there is some very good discussion on both sides of several issues (and some somewhat off the wall comments about Kyle's BB IQ ;) )

ns7
03-07-2011, 06:19 PM
Duke didn't lose this game because of what UNC did, they lost it because Duke couldn't hit an open three to save their lives.

Kyle 0-5
Ryan 0-6
Nolan 0-4

You live by the 3 you die by the 3.

Duke died by the 3. End of story.

We gave up 51 points in the first half and 30+ in the last 10 minutes of the half. That sounds like what UNC did (or what our defense didn't do) to me.

dukelifer
03-07-2011, 10:33 PM
I was thinking that at the end of his "senior" season, Jason "Jay" Williams also had some bad shooting stretches. Duke lost to Maryland- where Jason was 2-12 from 3 and also Virginia where he was 1-7. He did well against bad teams but struggled against better teams. Just an observation- but shows that senior slumps can happen to the best of them.

elvis14
03-07-2011, 10:46 PM
I was thinking that at the end of his "senior" season, Jason "Jay" Williams also had some bad shooting stretches. Duke lost to Maryland- where Jason was 2-12 from 3 and also Virginia where he was 1-7. He did well against bad teams but struggled against better teams. Just an observation- but shows that senior slumps can happen to the best of them.

Take post #60 in this thread and replace "Jon" with "Jay" ;)

Billy Dat
03-07-2011, 11:02 PM
I'm watching the Wofford/Col.Charleston Southern Conf title game right now. They just showed a graphic of the current players in NCAA Div 1 with the most career points. Number 1 is Charleston's Andrew Goudelock. #4? Kyle Singler, right behind Jimmer and just ahead of LaceDarius Dunn. #2 is Hofstra's Charles Jenkins.

What's better than Championship week? I get a graphic showing me that Kyle has scored more points than all but 3 other college players and then immediately see Bobby Cremins laughing on the bench, despite being down 5 with 3 to play.

Utley
03-07-2011, 11:29 PM
I was thinking that at the end of his "senior" season, Jason "Jay" Williams also had some bad shooting stretches. Duke lost to Maryland- where Jason was 2-12 from 3 and also Virginia where he was 1-7. He did well against bad teams but struggled against better teams. Just an observation- but shows that senior slumps can happen to the best of them.

I was just about to post the same sentiment. If memory serves, it largely continued into the tournament. Just like with Kyle, Jason was a warrior who provided countless wonderful wins and a national title, all of which easily swamp a slump at an unfortunate time. A little bit of uh-oh but a whole lot of oh yeah.

CDu
03-08-2011, 10:19 AM
Finally, I remember Marshall's spin move and my recollection (which admittedly could be faulty) is it felt like it came in the middle of a half-court set. If that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound then to me it reinforces my point that 10 seconds is a long time to be considered transition.

I would say Marshall's spin move came in transition more than a half court set. Neither the offense nor defense had come set (which is what I would consider the beginning of the half-court set and end of transition).

But I think it's all a matter of interpretation of terminology. I see a distinction of three phases of offense: fast-break, transition, and half-court set. If you score before the offense and defense get set, it's a transition basket. It might or might not be a fast break basket, but it could be the fabled "secondary break" basket. In Saturday night's game, UNC didn't punish us with many fast break points, but they punished us with numerous transition (secondary break) points.

FellowTraveler
03-10-2011, 03:50 PM
I’ve seen a lot of talk of Singler's decline in FT attempts this year and was curious about whether this could be attributed to an increased percentage of his shots coming from outside. As it turns out, the percentage of Kyle’s shots that have come from behind the three point line has been remarkably consistent for the past three seasons -- between 38 and 39 percent each season. As a freshman, 43 percent of Kyle’s shots came from behind the arc. This pattern surprised me.

I looked at Kyle’s FTA per 2pFGA, and the drop-off this year is striking. Here are his numbers, freshman year first: 0.535, 0.596, 0.617, 0.487. That’s a huge drop from last year to this year -- 21 percent.

Some of that may be attributable to Singler failing to get some foul calls he should get. I agree that it has at times been noticeable. But it doesn’t seem plausible that that would account for a 21 percent decrease in FT rate. Seems odd for a widely respected star senior to suddenly start getting screwed by refs. I suspect, instead, the drop is in large part a result of a change in Kyle’s style of play inside the arc (since we knew he isn't taking many more 3s.) FWIW, he’s actually making a higher percentage of his 2-point shots than last year. Four-year 2pFG%, starting Freshman year: 0.545, 0.476, 0.424, 0.476.

But back to refs and foul calls. Like a lot of Duke fans, I felt that during Redick’s senior year, he could have gotten a lot more calls than he did. So I took a look at his FTA per 2pFGA, Freshman year first: 0.902, 1.007, 1.072, 0.818. Like Kyle, that’s a steady increase each of the first three years, followed by a huge drop to a career low as a senior.

Weird.

superdave
03-10-2011, 04:21 PM
I looked at Kyle’s FTA per 2pFGA, and the drop-off this year is striking. Here are his numbers, freshman year first: 0.535, 0.596, 0.617, 0.487. That’s a huge drop from last year to this year -- 21 percent.

But back to refs and foul calls. Like a lot of Duke fans, I felt that during Redick’s senior year, he could have gotten a lot more calls than he did. So I took a look at his FTA per 2pFGA, Freshman year first: 0.902, 1.007, 1.072, 0.818. Like Kyle, that’s a steady increase each of the first three years, followed by a huge drop to a career low as a senior.

Weird.

Thanks for the data.

Kyle is not finishing a lot of plays when he does get fouled - few old fashioned 3 point plays - as well. He seems less explosive and does not seem to hunt for contact in the lane as much. I do wonder if there was a sprained knee or ankle at some point this season. I dont have stats to back it up though....alas.

basket1544
03-11-2011, 12:19 AM
Not sure what thread to add this to but I'm hoping that Kyle looks at what EJ has done in the last 2 games (followed a career high of 22 with another career high of 24) and says anything you can do, I can do better.