ACC Tourney pairings

[Olympic Fan]

Okay, we know that the Duke-UNC winner will be the top seed in the tourney and that the loser will be the No. 2 seed. And we know that Georgia Tech is locked into the 11th seed and Wake Forest is locked into the No. 12 seed.

But there is still a lot to be decided.

The REAL interesting setup is the battle for fourth place and the final first round bye.

Right now, the standings after Duke and UNC are:

3. Florida State 10-5
4. Virginia Tech 9-6
5. (tie) Boston College 8-7
Clemson 8-7

Boston College has a gimmie Sunday when Wake visits BC. So they should finish 9-7. FSU is at NC State Sunday in a tossup game. I could see them finishing 10-6 or 11-5. If they win in Raleigh, they are clearly third place. But if they lose to State and Virginia Tech wins Saturday, the Hokies could catch FSU for third -- and VPI has the tiebreaker (the two teams only met once and VPI won).

But here's where it gets interesting. Virginia Tech's game Saturday is at Clemson, and if Clemson can win in Littlejohn they force a three-way tie with VPI and BC for fourth ... all at 9-7. Should that happen, Clemson wins the tiebreaker (2-0 against VPI and BC; BC is 2-1 against VPI and Clemson; VPI would be 0-3 against Clemson and BC).

So Virginia Tech could end up either third (with a win at Clemson and an FSU loss at NC State), fourth (with a win at Clemson and an DSU win in Raleigh) or sixth (with a loss at Clemson). I guess technically they could end up fifth, but only if they lost at Clemson and Wake Forest wins at Boston College.

There are also a myriad of possibilities lower in the standings, but with it unclear whether Duke will be the 1 or the 2 seed, it's hard to figure possibilities.

Here's the middle of the standings:

Maryland 7-8
(tie) Miami 6-9
Virginia 6-9
NC State 5-10

Virginia is at Maryland and could tie the Terps for seventh place with a win -- and the Cavs would have a sweep (and thus the tiebreaker over the Terps). On the other hand, Maryland could catch Clemson for sixth place, if the Terps beat the Cavs and the Hokies beat the Tigers. Technically, Maryland, Clemson and BC could end up in a three-way tie at 8-8, but that's not going to happen because BC is not going to lose at home to Wake (so I'm not going to figure out the possible tiebeakers). If Clemson and Maryland tie at 8-8, then Maryland wins the tiebreaker.

Miami could tie Maryland and Virginia in a three-way tie if the Terps lose to the Cavs and the Canes win at Georgia Tech. Virginia would finish seventh in that case (the Cavs are 2-1 against Miami and Maryland; Miami is 1-1; Maryland is 1-2).

The best NC State can do is climb into a three-way tie with Miami and/or Virginia at 6-10 -- if one or both lose on the road this weekend and the Pack wins at home. If that happens:

Virginia has a tiebreaker over N.C. State.
Miami has a tiebreaker over Virginia.
NC State has tiebreaker over Maryland.

Virginia, Miami and NC State are al 1-1 against each other ... The winner of the three-way tiebreaker would then depend on the Clemson-VPI game. If VPI wins that game, then Virginia wins the three-way because it is 2-0 against the Hokies (and Virginia Tech would be the third seed because State's victory over FSU -- which would be required to create a three-way tie -- would drop the Noles to fourth). If Clemson beats FSU, then N.C. State would win the three-way tiebreaker because FSU would remain in third and State's victory over FSU (well, they don't have one yet, but they'd have to get one to create the three-way tie with Virginia and Miami) would give them the edge.

Whew ... that's crazy (and it's late, so somebody backstop me on this).


So with one round of ACC games to go, all we really know is that Duke, UNC and FSU have locked up first-round byes ... Clemson, Va Tech and BC still have a chance for the fourth bye ... and that Georgia Tech and Wake are 11 and 12 respectively.

Pretty much everything else is still up in the air.

[burns15]

Okay, we know that the Duke-UNC winner will be the top seed in the tourney and that the loser will be the No. 2 seed. And we know that Georgia Tech is locked into the 11th seed and Wake Forest is locked into the No. 12 seed.

But there is still a lot to be decided.

The REAL interesting setup is the battle for fourth place and the final first round bye.

Right now, the standings after Duke and UNC are:

3. Florida State 10-5
4. Virginia Tech 9-6
5. (tie) Boston College 8-7
Clemson 8-7

Boston College has a gimmie Sunday when Wake visits BC. So they should finish 9-7. FSU is at NC State Sunday in a tossup game. I could see them finishing 10-6 or 11-5. If they win in Raleigh, they are clearly third place. But if they lose to State and Virginia Tech wins Saturday, the Hokies could catch FSU for third -- and VPI has the tiebreaker (the two teams only met once and VPI won).

But here's where it gets interesting. Virginia Tech's game Saturday is at Clemson, and if Clemson can win in Littlejohn they force a three-way tie with VPI and BC for fourth ... all at 9-7. Should that happen, Clemson wins the tiebreaker (2-0 against VPI and BC; BC is 2-1 against VPI and Clemson; VPI would be 0-3 against Clemson and BC).

So Virginia Tech could end up either third (with a win at Clemson and an FSU loss at NC State), fourth (with a win at Clemson and an DSU win in Raleigh) or sixth (with a loss at Clemson). I guess technically they could end up fifth, but only if they lost at Clemson and Wake Forest wins at Boston College.

There are also a myriad of possibilities lower in the standings, but with it unclear whether Duke will be the 1 or the 2 seed, it's hard to figure possibilities.

Here's the middle of the standings:

Maryland 7-8
(tie) Miami 6-9
Virginia 6-9
NC State 5-10

Virginia is at Maryland and could tie the Terps for seventh place with a win -- and the Cavs would have a sweep (and thus the tiebreaker over the Terps). On the other hand, Maryland could catch Clemson for sixth place, if the Terps beat the Cavs and the Hokies beat the Tigers. Technically, Maryland, Clemson and BC could end up in a three-way tie at 8-8, but that's not going to happen because BC is not going to lose at home to Wake (so I'm not going to figure out the possible tiebeakers). If Clemson and Maryland tie at 8-8, then Maryland wins the tiebreaker.

Miami could tie Maryland and Virginia in a three-way tie if the Terps lose to the Cavs and the Canes win at Georgia Tech. Virginia would finish seventh in that case (the Cavs are 2-1 against Miami and Maryland; Miami is 1-1; Maryland is 1-2).

The best NC State can do is climb into a three-way tie with Miami and/or Virginia at 6-10 -- if one or both lose on the road this weekend and the Pack wins at home. If that happens:

Virginia has a tiebreaker over N.C. State.
Miami has a tiebreaker over Virginia.
NC State has tiebreaker over Maryland.

Virginia, Miami and NC State are al 1-1 against each other ... The winner of the three-way tiebreaker would then depend on the Clemson-VPI game. If VPI wins that game, then Virginia wins the three-way because it is 2-0 against the Hokies (and Virginia Tech would be the third seed because State's victory over FSU -- which would be required to create a three-way tie -- would drop the Noles to fourth). If Clemson beats FSU, then N.C. State would win the three-way tiebreaker because FSU would remain in third and State's victory over FSU (well, they don't have one yet, but they'd have to get one to create the three-way tie with Virginia and Miami) would give them the edge.

Whew ... that's crazy (and it's late, so somebody backstop me on this).


So with one round of ACC games to go, all we really know is that Duke, UNC and FSU have locked up first-round byes ... Clemson, Va Tech and BC still have a chance for the fourth bye ... and that Georgia Tech and Wake are 11 and 12 respectively.

Pretty much everything else is still up in the air.

This is great stuff!! I think that UVA would actually have a split if they beat Maryland, however. IIRC UVA lost 66-42 the previous time, although I might be confusing that game with another

[gw67]

Olympic,

Great stuff as usual. As noted above, Virginia will split with Md if they win on Saturday. Maryland is 0-5 against the interlopers from the Big East (Send them back!).

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

Okay, the Tigers take down the Hokies in Littlejohn. That clears up the pairings SLIGHTLY.

We know:
1-2. Duke-UNC
3. Florida State (no matter what happens at NC State Sunday)
4. Clemson
Those are the four bye teams
5. Boston College (probably -- all they have to do is beat Wake Sunday at home)
6. Virginia Tech (can still be No. 5 if Wake upsets BC)

(a big mess)

11. Georgia Tech (technically, they could tie NC State for 10th, but even if they do, they lose the tiebreaker).
12. Wake Forest

The Maryland-Virginia game that's starting right now will start to clear up the 7-10 mess. Obviously, the Duke-UNC gamke tonight determines the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.

Interesting note -- Assuming BC beats Wake in Chesnut Hill tomorrow, the same two teams will meet Thursday at 2 p.m, in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

More than likely, that leads to a quarterfinal matchup between BC and Clemson.

Virginia Tech will open the ACC Tournament at 9 p.m. Thursday against Georgia Tech. The ESPN commentators keep talking about "if they lose in the first round of the ACC Tournament, they miss the NCAA Tournament." That's probably true, considering that their third straight loss would come to a BAD Georgia Tech team. I'm not 100 percent sure that a win Thursday would do it -- they are likely to match up with FSU in a quarterfinal game and might need that one to make it.

[ns7]

Okay, the Tigers take down the Hokies in Littlejohn. That clears up the pairings SLIGHTLY.

We know:
1-2. Duke-UNC
3. Florida State (no matter what happens at NC State Sunday)
4. Clemson
Those are the four bye teams
5. Boston College (probably -- all they have to do is beat Wake Sunday at home)
6. Virginia Tech (can still be No. 5 if Wake upsets BC)

(a big mess)

11. Georgia Tech (technically, they could tie NC State for 10th, but even if they do, they lose the tiebreaker).
12. Wake Forest



I think Clemson needs to beat BC to get in and VaTech needs to beat both Georgia Tech and FSU to get in. FSU is probably safe, would have been safer if Barnes hadn't hit that shot of course.

Significant chance that we could see a 3 bid ACC though.

[Olympic Fan]

I think Clemson needs to beat BC to get in and VaTech needs to beat both Georgia Tech and FSU to get in. FSU is probably safe, would have been safer if Barnes hadn't hit that shot of course.

Significant chance that we could see a 3 bid ACC though.

I'd like to keep this thread about ACC Tournament pairings and matchups, but I can't let that go without comment. As of today, Lunardi has SIX ACC teams. Even under your worst scenaro, unless BC loses a game to Wake (which I think is unlikely) they almost certainly would get in by beating Clemson in the quarterfinals and reaching the semifinals (where they would probably lose to Duke or UNC). Plus, whoever wins that quarterfinal FSU/VPI quarterfinal game would be equally safe/

That would be four easy.

I know you can construct a crazy scenario where Wake upsets BC AND Clemson or Georgia Tech upset VPI AND FSU to knock it down to three ... but it would be just as easy to construct a crazy scenario that keeps all six in the field.

Right now, four is pretty safe and even five (Duke, UNC, FSU, Va Tech and the Clemson/BC wnner Friday) looks like the most likely scenario.

[Olympic Fan]

Maryland, which was dead anyway as far as the NCAA is concerned, took anothey dive today, losing 74-60 at home on Senior Day to Virginia.

That helps clear up the 7-10 order.

Rigth now, it's

Virginia 7-9
Maryland 7-9
Miami 6-9
NC State 5-10

If Miami can win at Georgia Tech Sunday, the Canes get the No. 7 seed (thanks to a 1-0 record against both Maryland and Virginia). Maryland edges the Cavs for No. 8 (on the basis of its win vs. third-place FSU) and Virginia would be 9 and NC State 10.

If Georgia Tech beats Miami Sunday in Atlanta, then Maryland gets No. 7, Virginia gets No. 8. Miami would have to wait on NC State-FSU ... if the Pack wins in Raleigh, they would tie Miami for No. 9 -- and win the tiebreaker on the basis of a head-to-head win.

So Miami has the most on the line Sunday -- win and they are the No. 7 seed ... lose and they are the No. 10 seed!

[devildeac]

Be nice for another team to lose on their senior night tonight (cough, cough), too.

[Bob Green]

The regular season is complete with FSU beating NC State, 72-62, in the final game so the tournament pairings are set. As the #2 seed, Duke will play the winner of the match-up between #7 seed Maryland and #10 seed NC State. Our game is on Friday at 7:00 pm eastern time (4 pm for us left coasters).

The tournament bracket can be viewed here:

http://www.theacc.com/championships/11-acc-mens-basketball-tournament.html

[ChrisP]

Given the fact that the ACC is so weak this year, I like our chances to at least get to the Championship game. That's assuming of course, that we don't shoot like 20-some-% from 3-pt. range. It would also be nice to have another shot at getting some revenge on FSU on a neutral court and then possibly getting some on the 'holes too next Sunday.

Yeah, yeah, I know there's a lot of basketball to be played first but the fact is, if this Duke team is worth anything, we OUGHT to have a very good shot at making it to the finals.

[dukelifer]

The regular season is complete with FSU beating NC State, 72-62, in the final game so the tournament pairings are set. As the #2 seed, Duke will play the winner of the match-up between #7 seed Maryland and #10 seed NC State. Our game is on Friday at 7:00 pm eastern time (4 pm for us left coasters).

The tournament bracket can be viewed here:

http://www.theacc.com/championships/11-acc-mens-basketball-tournament.html

UNC should have a clear path to the finals. I don't see any of those teams beating them although a few have played them close. Duke will have a more difficult road. If Fla State makes it through- it will have been a while since Duke played them- should be interesting.

[WakeDevil]

Did the NCAA change the seeding rules? I know the Big East has to be dealt with, but realtimerpi.com has UNC as a 1 and FSU as a 9 in the same bracket.

[Bob Green]

UNC should have a clear path to the finals....Duke will have a more difficult road.

#4 seed Clemson is currently playing better basketball than #3 seed Florida State so I'm not convinced Duke has the tougher road. Clemson could give Carolina some problems. I hope not as I strongly desire to see a Duke - Carolina rubber match in the Championship Game on Sunday.

[ns7]

#4 seed Clemson is currently playing better basketball than #3 seed Florida State so I'm not convinced Duke has the tougher road. Clemson could give Carolina some problems. I hope not as I strongly desire to see a Duke - Carolina rubber match in the Championship Game on Sunday.

We might end up with #6 VaTech over #3 FSU. Of course that means VaTech would have to win two games to get off of the bubble so this probably won't happen.

I do like Clemson's chances against UNC, assuming they get past BC. I think Clemson is currently the third best team in the ACC.

[-bdbd]

#4 seed Clemson is currently playing better basketball than #3 seed Florida State so I'm not convinced Duke has the tougher road. Clemson could give Carolina some problems. I hope not as I strongly desire to see a Duke - Carolina rubber match in the Championship Game on Sunday.

Agreed Bob.

It isn't at all entirely bad for Duke. :) We will likely play MD Friday night (if they win their Thur prelim game vs NCSU). UNC on Fri. gets the UVA-Mia winner (they beat Mia at the buzzer in Mia a month ago). Duke has already beaten MD twice, and the Terps really seem to have little incentive to play for now (NCAA bid is long gone). (Note: I'm a huge believer at motivation playing a very significant role at this time of year.)

If the seeds hold up, you'd see Duke-FSU in the Sat late game. NC-Clemson in the early Sat game. If we get past MD, Duke most would expect gets FSU.... though a motivated VPI team could easily beat FSU. Despite being the #3 seed, FSU is a little down, having lost their star big (Singleton?) <3 weeks ago. I see VPI desperately needing to beat FSU here (and so they pull the "upset").

So here's my predicted Fri pairings/times:
noon - UNC vs Miami
2pm - BC* vs Clemson*
break
7pm - Duke vs MD
9pm - VPI* vs FSU

Asterisks indicate teams "on the bubble" and hence more motivated.

For Sat I'll pick Duke over VPI (yes, VPI beats FSU), and NC out-battling Clemson.

Nobody would be surprised to see a Duke-NC rubber match on Sun.... But look for the "bubble" teams to pull a surprise or two. I still expect to see Duke and NC on Sunday, with Duke getting the "rubber" match in a close one on a neutral court.

:cool:

[UrinalCake]

Duke has already beaten MD twice, and the Terps really seem to have little incentive to play for now (NCAA bid is long gone).

Well, unless they have hopes of winning the whole thing, thereby claiming a bid. I wouldn't sleep on Maryland (I don't give the Zombie Wolfpack much chance of winning on thursday). What scares me is that a.) They get play on thursday and thus will get their feet wet, while b.) We start slow every game. I wouldn't be surprised to see us fall into a hole early, which will get all non-Duke fans up and rooting against us.

Saturday we would most likely play one of the teams that has already beaten us this year (VT or FSU). Neither will be an automatic win. On the other half of the bracket, I agree that Clemson could challenge UNC. I think UNC will be vulnerable due to their lack of depth and reliance of freshmen, but maybe that's just wishful thinking. If this were a typical Clemson team I'd root for them to beat UNC up a little, maybe wear them out before they play us in the finals. This year though I don't know if they have the horses to do it.

[throatybeard]

Clemson over Carolina in the ACCT.

It happened one glorious day in 1996. Glorious night. Not that glorious, coz we'd lost earlier in the day because Wojo and Collins were both near-cripples and Stan Brunson was called on for a major role. Other people were hurt. I think we had one truly healthy regular. I forget whether it was Capel or Price.

If you have a choice in the matter, I would not recommend being in the class of 1998.

But hey, Barnes stood up to Mean Ole Dean. Carolina peeps still hate him a decade and a half later.

[dukelifer]

#4 seed Clemson is currently playing better basketball than #3 seed Florida State so I'm not convinced Duke has the tougher road. Clemson could give Carolina some problems. I hope not as I strongly desire to see a Duke - Carolina rubber match in the Championship Game on Sunday.

I agree with you. Clemson is a very good team and can pester Marshall. The problem and the reason I gave UNC the nod is that UNC has some strange voodoo hex over Clemson and I do not think they can pull it off. They may even play this to the wire but somehow- someway- UNC finds a way to win. This is more about gut than X's and O's.

[4decadedukie]

GO TIGERS! They demonstrated their strong defensive abilities in Cameron last week, and are certainly capable of this upset.

[Klemnop]

GO TIGERS! They demonstrated their strong defensive abilities in Cameron last week, and are certainly capable of this upset.

Nobody appreciates the Clemson Love more than me...but you guys are getting WAAAAAAY ahead of yourselves. Of all the handicaps Clemson has to overcome to even get into this conversation the main one is our abominable record in the ACCT. In the last 25 years I can only think of two (2!) tournaments where we made any kind of noise: Three years ago when we beat Duke in the semis and played UNC tough in the Finals and the mid-90's team that made it to Saturday but lost on Duke's last-second length-of-the-court layup at the buzzer. Even the year that we beat UNC on Friday ("Buckner Dunks!, Buckner Dunks!") we got hammered on Saturday. The ACCT is simply a House of Horrors for us.

BC gets, essentially, a shoot-around on Thursday...and the leg-drain of having to play on multiple days is not likely to have set in by Friday. I look for the Clemson-BC match-up to be pretty straight-up. Pomeroy will favor us. We'll see what Vegas thinks. I think it's a dangerous match-up because it is two vastly different styles - so it's possible that BC just blitzes us, gets us out of our plodding defensive comfort zone and forces us to play fast-paced and high-scoring with them. In that scenario (similar to what BC did in Blacksburg last Tuesday) I don't think we can keep up with them. We just don't score well enough.

If we can keep the game on our terms, control them defensively and force them to play at our pace - then it comes down to Clemson being able to execute. (Still an iffy proposition.)

That said, IF (that's a BIG "if") Clemson gets by BC then I think that's the best outcome for whoever plays UNC on Sunday. It isn't BC's style to push you physically. They more want to out-dance you than out-punch you. That plays right into Carolina's strength. Clemson would do its best to make each possession, offensive and defensive, a war of attrition (and not in a dirty way) with the Heels. At best Clemson manages to win - and would have the vaunted "it's hard to beat a good team three times in one season" mojo. At worst the Tigers extract a high physical price - and perhaps take an emotional toll as well - that softens Carolina up for Sunday.

Klem

[Matches]

Saturday we would most likely play one of the teams that has already beaten us this year (VT or FSU). Neither will be an automatic win.

I don't expect VT to make it to Saturday. Frankly I don't expect VT to make it to Friday. They look like toast right now.

If we make it to Saturday we're probably looking at a rematch with FSU.

[Class of '94]

I didn't recall seeing this previously listed. If it has, mods please feel free to delete.

Here is the link to the pairings: http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/030611aac.html .

[HokieEngineer]

As a Hokie, I think they're wildly optimistic. A guy can hope, however...



Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
Boston College 33.58% 8.78% 1.76%
Clemson 66.12% 24.64% 7.20%
Duke 84.39% 70.69% 51.54%
Florida St. 53.14% 11.28% 4.10%
Georgia Tech 7.12% 0.72% 0.14%
Maryland 14.10% 7.64% 3.05%
Miami FL 12.96% 5.15% 0.99%
North Carolina 83.35% 60.48% 27.40%
North Carolina St. 1.51% 0.41% 0.07%
Virginia 3.69% 0.94% 0.11%
Virginia Tech 39.74% 9.26% 3.64%
Wake Forest 0.31% 0.01% 0.00%