MBB: Duke @ Carolina Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Bluedog]

I didn't see a thread for the Carolina game yet unless I missed it. So, I thought I'd get the ball rolling! (Unless I'm not supposed to for some reason and then I apologize; I didn't start a Status Check thread since I realize that's Ozzie's job and I don't want to disrupt the basketball world).

This is for all the (regular season) marbles folks! It's not going to be easy to go into Chapel Hell and get the W, but if we play disciplined basketball and don't let them beat us on the boards, I like our chances. Zeller/Henson are really the tandem that worry me the most, so we need the Plumlees and Kelly to step up. I think Miles did a good job with interior D the first time around, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him get more minutes than Kelly just because we need that D/toughness inside. We really need to be beasts on the boards (or at least not let UNC get many second chance opportunities). Hopefully, we can get that third scorer again like Curry did the first time around. I'm confident that we'll come to play. Singler and Nolan will obviously bring the toughness and I think the rest of the team will follow their leads.

LET'S GO DUKE! GO TO HELL CAROLINA!

[moonpie23]

i think duke learned more from them than they learned from duke last time...


GO DUKE

[sporthenry]

I feel Kelly might be the most important player in this game. If he can get his shot back, it should prove too much for their defense and if he can play solid defense and keep them off the boards, it will be tough to beat Duke. I also think Singler has some unfinished business with HB. KM will be harder to stop and hopefully his shooting woes continue.

[RockyMtDevil]

roy has really done an incredible job with this team, especially now that cancer drew is gone. Will anyone ever remember he ever played at unc? This will be our toughest game and will come down to length vs experience. If we can shoot well and get some help from Andre or scoring from Mason we can win, otherwise I believe carolina will pull it out.

This is a toss up at this point, but unc is much more fragile than we are in March...too young and they don't yet know how to "win".

Hope this pays off on Saturday.

[SoCalDukeFan]

how much better UNC-CH is without Drew.

The do have plenty of talent. They will be very very tough at home.

SoCal

[oldnavy]

The key will be to make Marshall score. Our bigs need to stay with their man and not come off to help when KM gets in the lane. Deny the easy dump off for the bigs. That and keep Marshall going to the his right. If we can do that and rebound at a good clip we should be fine.

I hope to see a lot of drive and kick or drive and dump. UNC's bigs love to block shots, so if Nolan or Seth or Tyler can get in the lane and go up and either kick the ball out or drop it to Mason or Ryan or Kyle for some easy baskets we should do OK.

Also, this would be a great game to go with our ORANGE defense. Play zone on certain possessions and force them to hit outside shots. Most folks have been doing this and it seems to help. They do not shoot the outside shot with a lot of confidence and they are next to last in 3pt FGP. Also, foul them, they are not that great of a FT shooting team.

As always, we need to get back on defense and not allow easy transition buckets...

We know what to do, now we just have to execute better than them. I believe we will be fine, and win a close one.

[Matches]

UNC will be juiced for Barnes and Henson's Senior Night. :)

Marshall has improved as a shooter since our first meeting, so we can't necessarily rely on him missing those floaters in the lane like he did at CIS. Stopping his dribble penetration will be key.

[moonpie23]

This is a toss up at this point, but unc is much more fragile than we are in March...too young and they don't yet know how to "win".

Hope this pays off on Saturday.


don't know how you're figuring this....they've been winning for a while now.....unc is getting what none of their opponents wants them to have.......

confidence.......HWNSNBM is knocking down huge game winners.....

duke has to play a great defensive game.....it would be very hard to come back from 14 down over there....

[cbnaylor]

I think Duke needs to make a point to control the game to their tempo. The last meeting, Duke tried to run with UNC and it didn't go so well. UNC had a lot of easy fast break points which lead to their high fg%. Obviously in the second half, Duke adjusted and limited the fast break and controlled the tempo of the game. I look for Duke to do the same on Sat for the W.

[sagegrouse]

Here are some questions to ponder for the final regular season game (I am getting too old not to have a twinge of sadness):

1. The Battle Inside: The battle inside will come down to shot swatters against shot makers. How will our trio of Mason, Ryan and Miles play against UNC's two best players?

2. The Battle of the Bombers: UNC has shown far less outside shooting proficiency than the Devils, but home rims are important. Can the Heels outshoot Duke from the outside? Will Seth, Nolan, Kyle, Andre, and Ryan make 40% of their 3-pt. shots?

3. The Battle Against Nolan: One of the reasons for Duke's surge in the second half at Cameron was Dexter Strickland's foul problems. Absent the much-maligned LD II, there was no one else who could stay with Nolan.

4. The Battle Between Kyle and Skype Boy: Barnes's late-game heroics are becoming the stuff of legends at Chapel Hill. Can Kyle repeat his success against Skype Boy?

sagegrouse

[WillJ]

In describing to my eight-year old son why it was so important to world peace that Duke beat UNC this weekend, I found it useful to make the analogies between UNC and Slytherin House and between Duke and Gryffindor. This seemed to help him understand the gravity of the situation, and it prompted me to consider individual correspondences of UNC personnel to Hogwarts. Here's what I have so far:

Harrison Barnes - Malfoy. I can definitely see Malfoy both calling himself the Black Falcon and overusing social media.

Tyler Zeller and John Henson - these are clearly Crabbe and Goyle, Malfoy's henchman, though Henson is too skinny to make it a perfect analogy.

Kendall Marshall - I thinke he is most comparable to Dudley Dursley - both being slow moving and leaders of boorish louts.

Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland - Professor Quirrel and Peter Pettigrew, respectively, weaker men who dedicated their lives to the service of the Dark Lord.

Roy Williams - Voldemort, though I did consider making him Severus Snape, with Dean Smith being Voldemort.

Any additional thoughts would be much appreciated - I do want to help my son understand what's at stake.

[kong123]

4: The Battle Between Kyle and Skype Boy[/U]: Barnes's late-game heroics are becoming the stuff of legends at Chapel Hill. Can Kyle repeat his success against Skype Boy?

sagegrouse


By success, do you mean getting the win or going 3 for 17 from the field. If you are talking about shooting success then I agree, I hope he has equal success.

[Class of '94]

By success, do you mean getting the win or going 3 for 17 from the field. If you are talking about shooting success then I agree, I hope he has equal success.

How about the success of Kyle shutting Barnes down and holding him to 9 points? ;)

It's funny how some people can forget that (and I'm not talking about you Kong). On ESPN's College Basketball Show last night, one of the analysts talked about how well Barnes shut down Kyle; but failed to point out the fact that Kyle shut Barnes down. I still like our chances if the Kyle-Barnes matchup is a wash in their matchup; but I think Kyle is going to have a strong scoring game this time. And like others have said, the keys for Duke to win is that the team has to play a strong defensive game and they need to come out the gate strong and sharp like they did against MD on the road.

[dukelifer]

don't know how you're figuring this....they've been winning for a while now.....unc is getting what none of their opponents wants them to have.......

confidence.......HWNSNBM is knocking down huge game winners.....

duke has to play a great defensive game.....it would be very hard to come back from 14 down over there....

Winning yes- but an observation- teams that see them a second time are playing much better against them- much better. Probably means folks have figured some things out. Duke made an adjustment at half time that limited their effectiveness. UNC is also not as good in the second half of game. For Duke to win- they have to keep it close in the first half by limiting TURNOVERS. That killed them in the first game and to some degree in the last two games. This is always a war- and you cannot really judge either team by the outcome. But the unbalanced-unfair-asymmetrical-ACC regular season championship is up for grabs.

[epoulsen]

I am getting my son early.... really early. He's about to turn two, so I have scoured the local costume shops for a cheap gorilla suit, which I am dying or just hairspraying carolina blue. I will then randomly put the gorilla suit on and hide somewhere in our house, when I see him coming via cleverly placed babycam I will jump out and scare the bejeezus out of him and blaring the carolina fight song. A few of my friends think that this will just make him afraid of UNC for the rest of his life but I disagree. This is just stage 1, where the seed of fear will be planted in him; fear is the first, or at least easiest, step towards hate. How do you cross the bridge from fear to hate? As he gets older I won't put presents under the christmas tree (I will keep them in our closet) and on christmas morning when he comes down I will have a note that reads "Thanks for all the great gifts, I didn't think you'd want them so I just took them" -Signed, Roy Williams and Company. Then when he is about to cry I'll pull the gifts out of the closet with a note that reads "We saw Ol' Roy and Co. leaving your house with your presents so we stomped him, enjoy your Christmas" - Signed Coach K and Company. The message- When you're a Duke fan UNC isn't scary, they're just crooks and thugs who can be put right back in their place. This should do the trick. Also, this is clearly a joke, so please don't call social services on me.

[PADukeMom]

I am still trying to deal with not seeing Nolan & Kyle in Cameron anymore.

This is going to be a rough game. The postive I took from last night is that I think the light blub is finally going off in Mason's head. Last night I finally saw him with an Elton Brand move. Thank YOU! Now do more of it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I love these analyses. They're pretty meaningless, but fun nonetheless. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the following match-ups:

1: Marshall <<<< Smith (no argument)
2: Strickland < Curry (Stickland has better D, Curry is a better scorer. In this case, strength of the scrorer trumps strength of the D)
3: HB < Singler (both great players, but Singler has the experience)
4: Henson >> Kelly (Henson is just a great player. Kelly is too inconsistent)
5: Zeller > MP2 (although MP2 has really improved this year, Zeller is a top 3 post player in the ACC)

Bench: UNC < Duke (the bench is not a strength of either team, but UNC is down to only 3 bench players while we can go to 4)

Coach: Ole Roy <<<<<<<< Coach K (again, no argument)

[ChicagoHeel]

Winning yes- but an observation- teams that see them a second time are playing much better against them- much better. Probably means folks have figured some things out.

You just highlighted something that is my biggest concern- teams have played us much closer the second time around. Part of it has to do with being away for (e.g. Clemson, NCSU & Miami), but still it is cause for concern.

You guys were obviously jittery in the first half last time, which can in part be attributed to the pressure of playing at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see you come out playing more smoothly.

As for the keys to the game, I think it is pretty similar to last time. Our big men will score more than yours and your backcourt will outscore ours; Singler and Barnes will more or less offset one another and it will come down to the role players. Also, if your bigs can limit our second chance opportunities, it will make life difficult for us. We shoot 45% as a team, but that's because we get so many put-backs from inside three feet. I would not like to see a comparison of our first shot FG% with other teams'.

I am hopeful that Roy/ UNC will make some adjustments so that Smith has to work harder for his points. I'm sure Nolan will still score a bunch, but 34 points on 23 shots is too efficient. Duke game aside, we've done better in the second half of most of our games of slowing down opposing guards.

[BlueDevilCorvette!]

I feel Kelly might be the most important player in this game. If he can get his shot back, it should prove too much for their defense and if he can play solid defense and keep them off the boards, it will be tough to beat Duke. I also think Singler has some unfinished business with HB. KM will be harder to stop and hopefully his shooting woes continue.

Totally agree. We just need either Kelly or Singler to make some jumpers and pull Henson away from the basket to open the lanes for Nolan and Seth. If we can do this, it would give us a better chance at winning.

[MChambers]

As for the keys to the game, I think it is pretty similar to last time. Our big men will score more than yours and your backcourt will outscore ours; Singler and Barnes will more or less offset one another and it will come down to the role players. Also, if your bigs can limit our second chance opportunities, it will make life difficult for us. We shoot 45% as a team, but that's because we get so many put-backs from inside three feet. I would not like to see a comparison of our first shot FG% with other teams'.
Our bigs really need to stay home and box out. UNC's offensive rebounding killed us in the first half in the game at Cameron.

[sandinmyshoes]

We have the edge in experience and numbers. I give them an edge in the paint, though it is a thin (literally and figuratively) front court they have.

My main worry, that Barnes and McDonald have very good shooting nights from the three point line and that our guys are even just a little below par from the arc. That would give their post players room to operate, and play into their hands when they're on defense.

You never know, but other than that sort of scenario, I think we win. I'll be watching the arc on both sides. I'll also be watching fouls on Zeller, Henson and Marshall. I think those are the three players they have to keep on the floor. I believe we win any war of foul attrition.

[DukeWarhead]

From what I've seen, this UNC is not a big come-from-behind team, which is what Duke seems to have been for the second half of the season. This UNC teams seems to work, work, work, and cling to a slim lead and then look to Barnes to save them in the final minute - which he has consistently done.
Therefore, I'd like to see -
An aggressive start, go right at Barnes - force them to go uptempo.
Of course, we'll need a huge game from Mason/Ryan/Miles.

It's hard to believe that UNC has a great chance to win the ACC season after basically being second best all season long. Damn.

Let's go boys. You gotta want it more. Period.

[jv001]

We have the edge in experience and numbers. I give them an edge in the paint, though it is a thin (literally and figuratively) front court they have.

My main worry, that Barnes and McDonald have very good shooting nights from the three point line and that our guys are even just a little below par from the arc. That would give their post players room to operate, and play into their hands when they're on defense.

You never know, but other than that sort of scenario, I think we win. I'll be watching the arc on both sides. I'll also be watching fouls on Zeller, Henson and Marshall. I think those are the three players they have to keep on the floor. I believe we win any war of foul attrition.

If we're way off in shooting threes, then unc could probably get their fast break going. That could lead to a long night. Our best chance of beating them is make them play a half court offense. I feel we come out on top, if we don't give them 2nd chance shots and we don't turn it over. barnes hitting that shot last night may have been the best thing that could have happened. He may now think he's a good perimeter shooter. But again it may give him added confidence and he becomes a good perimeter shooter. Go Duke!

[dukebluesincebirth]

I agree with getting either Zeller or Henson in foul trouble really hurts them. When one of them shoots, the other crashes the weak side boards and they get many second chance points like this. If you take just one of them out of the mix, all of a sudden their second chance opportunities quickly dwindle.

The only problem for Duke is how to get either of them in foul trouble when our post guys don't get many touches and the two of them are good at blocking shots of penetrating guards. I think Kyle needs to go back to work on the blocks and if nothing else, try to draw some early fouls on either Henson or Zeller.

If we can do this, we've got em!

[sdotbarbee]

From what I've seen, this UNC is not a big come-from-behind team, which is what Duke seems to have been for the second half of the season. This UNC teams seems to work, work, work, and cling to a slim lead and then look to Barnes to save them in the final minute - which he has consistently done.
Therefore, I'd like to see -
An aggressive start, go right at Barnes - force them to go uptempo.
Of course, we'll need a huge game from Mason/Ryan/Miles.

It's hard to believe that UNC has a great chance to win the ACC season after basically being second best all season long. Damn.

Let's go boys. You gotta want it more. Period.

I have seen them come from behind to beat VT, and Miami so they can do it.

[ChicagoHeel]

One other possible factor is Marshall's scoring. Clearly the approach to defending him is to cut off the passing lanes and turn him into a scorer. To a certain extent that works- definitely did in our first meeting. However, that was the first time he was defended in that fashion and to a certain extent he has adjusted in subsequent games. He still struggles a bit with finding the right balance between looking for his own shot versus distributing the ball, but he has the potential to be a effective scorer. His shot, whether finishing at the basket or from the outside, usually looks solid. He missed a few last night that were close and didn't quite fall, but in other games he has scored effectively (e.g. BC, Clemson). If he can get into double figures with a modest number of shots, it could be huge for us.

[dukebluesincebirth]

One other possible factor is Marshall's scoring. Clearly the approach to defending him is to cut off the passing lanes and turn him into a scorer. To a certain extent that works- definitely did in our first meeting. However, that was the first time he was defended in that fashion and to a certain extent he has adjusted in subsequent games. He still struggles a bit with finding the right balance between looking for his own shot versus distributing the ball, but he has the potential to be a effective scorer. His shot, whether finishing at the basket or from the outside, usually looks solid. He missed a few last night that were close and didn't quite fall, but in other games he has scored effectively (e.g. BC, Clemson). If he can get into double figures with a modest number of shots, it could be huge for us.

Marshall is playing well. I think we have to force him to consistently knock down jumpers. He is certainly dangerous when he gets into the lane and I think has deceptive foot speed. He never looks like he's moving all that fast on T.V but in Cameron our guards had a terrible time staying in front of him. We must stay in front of him Saturday. Hopefully we'll play off of him a few steps and dare him to shoot and hit consistently.

[-bdbd]

Here are some questions to ponder for the final regular season game (I am getting too old not to have a twinge of sadness):

1. The Battle Inside: The battle inside will come down to shot swatters against shot makers. How will our trio of Mason, Ryan and Miles play against UNC's two best players?

2. The Battle of the Bombers: UNC has shown far less outside shooting proficiency than the Devils, but home rims are important. Can the Heels outshoot Duke from the outside? Will Seth, Nolan, Kyle, Andre, and Ryan make 40% of their 3-pt. shots?

3. The Battle Against Nolan: One of the reasons for Duke's surge in the second half at Cameron was Dexter Strickland's foul problems. Absent the much-maligned LD II, there was no one else who could stay with Nolan.

4. The Battle Between Kyle and Skype Boy: Barnes's late-game heroics are becoming the stuff of legends at Chapel Hill. Can Kyle repeat his success against Skype Boy?

sagegrouse

I don't know entirely why, but I really feel that this is Duke's game to lose. We have the confidence of Seniors (4 years of winning) and having beaten them a month ago, and just trashing them for the most recent 20 minutes of play. Their confidence is born of youth and winning their most recent handful of games (several being against lesser opponents, and still VERY close calls). It is more fragile.

We certainly need to do better than last time against their bigs - probably their greatest advantage. Our outside bombers can't get intimidated by playing at the Dome. Assume Barnes and McDonald have better games playing at home, but still not their strength. (Though HB, a career 35% (?) 3Pt shooter, was VERY lucky that he hit that three last night, as he'd have been crucified in CH if he diverged from Roy's play call and MISSED. If our game came down to a final 3-shot for HB, guarded by Singler, I'd take those odds in a flash!)

Nolan should have a very good game, given his defenders. And I thought KS simply had an off shooting night vs NC the first time - missed a LOT of open shots - so expect him to out-duel King Harry this go 'round.

The thing that has me the most nervous is our interior match-up vs Henson and Zeller. Need a good game from Ryan and Miles - as I assume Mason continues his strong recent play. I'd love to see K get him established and on the scoreboard early.

This is awesome - Duke versus the forces of darkness for the regular season title... Real fans gotta love this stuff!

:cool:

[ChicagoHeel]

This is awesome - Duke versus the forces of darkness for the regular season title... Real fans gotta love this stuff!

:cool:

I agree. While a big part of me would like to see Duke go 0-16 in the ACC for about a decade or so, another part feels like this is exactly the way the last game should be- for all the marbles.

[flyingdutchdevil]

One other possible factor is Marshall's scoring. Clearly the approach to defending him is to cut off the passing lanes and turn him into a scorer. To a certain extent that works- definitely did in our first meeting. However, that was the first time he was defended in that fashion and to a certain extent he has adjusted in subsequent games. He still struggles a bit with finding the right balance between looking for his own shot versus distributing the ball, but he has the potential to be a effective scorer. His shot, whether finishing at the basket or from the outside, usually looks solid. He missed a few last night that were close and didn't quite fall, but in other games he has scored effectively (e.g. BC, Clemson). If he can get into double figures with a modest number of shots, it could be huge for us.

I disagree. Marshall has never proven to be a scorer and nothing suggests that he will be Saturday night. He has had 4 games scoring in double digits this year. He is a fantastic distributor and may be the best pure passer in college ball. I can easily see him turning out like Paulus in that he becomes more of a scorer in this sophomore year but, but the remainder of the year, I think that he will always look to pass before shoot. That's why I feel Coach K will have a similar tactic for Marshall during this game - encourage him to shoot while blocking off passing lanes. It's worked effectively before (Duke, FSU) and will allow Marshall to not get his big men easy baskets.

[ChicagoHeel]

I disagree. Marshall has never proven to be a scorer and nothing suggests that he will be Saturday night. He has had 4 games scoring in double digits this year. He is a fantastic distributor and may be the best pure passer in college ball. I can easily see him turning out like Paulus in that he becomes more of a scorer in this sophomore year but, but the remainder of the year, I think that he will always look to pass before shoot. That's why I feel Coach K will have a similar tactic for Marshall during this game - encourage him to shoot while blocking off passing lanes. It's worked effectively before (Duke, FSU) and will allow Marshall to not get his big men easy baskets.

In the six games since we played Duke, in which basically everyone has played him the way Duke did (i.e. make him score), Marshall has scored in double figures three times (18 v Clemson, 10 v. BC, and 14 v. NCSU). He's shooting around 42 percent overall and 48 percent for the three games in which he has scored in double figures. So, while I agree with your basic point that he is not likely to find that really deadly scoring-passing balance until next year or later, I do think there is the potential for him to put up some points in the Duke game in an efficient manner. It is one of the X factors that could swing the game our way.

[rhcpflea99]

Duke needs to stop Marshall from bringing up the ball. Force Strickland to bring up the ball.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I still say the whole trick is getting either Zeller or Henson in early foul trouble. This gives them only one low post threat and takes the other away from offensive rebounds (which they're effective at). The only trouble is drawing the fouls. They'll get the benefit of calls in general being at home, and we don't give bigs that many touches anyway. I'd like to see Mason trying that little hook shot a little more often this game, if only for the purpose of drawing some fouls.

[BlueDevilCorvette!]

Duke will also need to force some turnovers or get some unforced turnovers, particularly if and when the refs start calling the palming/carrying violation on Marshall consistently.

[Philadukie]

If we're way off in shooting threes, then unc could probably get their fast break going. That could lead to a long night. Our best chance of beating them is make them play a half court offense. I feel we come out on top, if we don't give them 2nd chance shots and we don't turn it over. barnes hitting that shot last night may have been the best thing that could have happened. He may now think he's a good perimeter shooter. But again it may give him added confidence and he becomes a good perimeter shooter. Go Duke!

This. This is the key, I think. If we're clanging from deep, aside from the negative offensive result, it will give them opportunity for lots of easy run-outs. It will be a long night if this happens.

I understand that there are many nuances to the game, and that "live by the 3, die by the 3" can be overly simplistic. But, from my perspective, when we're shooting something like 1-10 to start from 3, like in our three losses, then it negatively affects many other aspects of our game (offensive rebounding, transition defense, penetration and scoring in the lane, heck, even our half-court defense).

If we're shooting 35%-40% from three early, then it will be a good game, with a likely outcome in our favor.

[sporthenry]

Well last night, KM was 3-10. As long as they can keep him away from lay ups and stay in front for the most part, Duke should be able to contain him.
As always with Duke, it becomes who will be that 3rd scorer. Mason is coming on but it will be tough for him to get it going vs their bigs. Have to think Seth will get some extra attention so I still contend that either 'Dre or Kelly will need to put up 8-12 points.
But I don't see HB shutting Kyle down. I think Kyle will take him to the block and show him what staying in school has taught him. Barnes is a great late game shooter but isn't a great shooter in general. He also seems to lack a great first step and seems to be too much of a shooter (at least from what I've seen). So I think you will see him have one of his 1 PPS games or worse.

[sporthenry]

And yeah, if the 3's are going early, it is tough to beat Duke. However, when they don't fall it seems there are 2 Duke teams. Ones that feel the only way to get back into the game is chuck 3's and you get games like last year vs Ga. Tech or you get games where they stop settling and Kyle/Nolan pound the paint while Curry starts his mid-range game.

[dukelifer]

You just highlighted something that is my biggest concern- teams have played us much closer the second time around. Part of it has to do with being away for (e.g. Clemson, NCSU & Miami), but still it is cause for concern.

You guys were obviously jittery in the first half last time, which can in part be attributed to the pressure of playing at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see you come out playing more smoothly.

As for the keys to the game, I think it is pretty similar to last time. Our big men will score more than yours and your backcourt will outscore ours; Singler and Barnes will more or less offset one another and it will come down to the role players. Also, if your bigs can limit our second chance opportunities, it will make life difficult for us. We shoot 45% as a team, but that's because we get so many put-backs from inside three feet. I would not like to see a comparison of our first shot FG% with other teams'.

I am hopeful that Roy/ UNC will make some adjustments so that Smith has to work harder for his points. I'm sure Nolan will still score a bunch, but 34 points on 23 shots is too efficient. Duke game aside, we've done better in the second half of most of our games of slowing down opposing guards.

Duke has played pretty well in Chapel Hill over the last few years. In some ways - they get a bit more hyped for the game when at home. Also true in the reverse except for last years blowout. Duke will need to play well up front and keep your bigs off the glass- either that or foul Henson hard and hope he has an adventure on the line. UNC has played well in tight games and this will be a tight game. The edge goes to UNC but maybe just by a hair. Should be a good game.

[Kedsy]

The edge goes to UNC but maybe just by a hair.

According to Pomeroy, the edge goes to us, by 1 point (56% chance of victory). Not that this means anything, but I just wanted to point that out.

[ns7]

With some help from the advanced stats at KenPom.com, I've listed some keys below. Basically Duke and UNC are equivalent on defense, but Duke has a large advantage in the strength of it's offense. So limiting UNC's offense to a normal output should be key to getting the win.

1) Don't commit turnovers. The one area on defense where UNC is subpar is in forcing turnovers. Duke should be able to limit turnovers by taking care of the ball--this isn't Clemson who actively goes for steals. Turnovers also put UNC in transition, where their offense operates much better than in the half court. Which leads to...

2) Don't let UNC play in transition As Luke Winn pointed out a few weeks ago, UNC's offense is significantly better in transition than in half court. Anything Duke does to limit this will really hold down UNC's scoring. Maryland got killed last weekend in transition.

3) Force UNC to shoot jump shots. UNC is not a good shooting team. Duke needs to protect the basket and cover Leslie McDonald on the perimeter. The rest of the team is not a threat to score from outside.

4) Rebound on defense. Duke needs to crack down on giving up those pesky offensive rebounds that have started leaking out the past two games. UNC thrives on crashing the boards on offense.

4) Pressure UNC to commit fouls in the act of shooting. UNC's defense is exceptional this year. They force teams to shoot poorly, rebound those missed shots, and don't foul shooters. Henson is a great shot blocker but he's not big--he seems to get his blocks one smaller players and while helping. Players can drive right at him to draw fouls and negate his blocking, but should be wary when he is lurking in the paint. Getting Henson in foul trouble can open up the paint and really hurt UNC's defense.

[-bdbd]

"This is awesome - Duke versus the forces of darkness for the regular season title... Real fans gotta love this stuff!"


I agree. While a big part of me would like to see Duke go 0-16 in the ACC for about a decade or so, another part feels like this is exactly the way the last game should be- for all the marbles.

Glad we agree that this will be Duke versus the forces of darkness! ;)

Should be a fun one for the fans. Can NC snap their current streak vs the Devils? We will see... Come'on clock, hurry up and move!

[DukieInBrasil]

This is for all the (regular season) marbles folks! It's not going to be easy to go into Chapel Hell and get the W, but if we play disciplined basketball and don't let them beat us on the boards, I like our chances. Zeller/Henson are really the tandem that worry me the most, so we need the Plumlees and Kelly to step up. I think Miles did a good job with interior D the first time around, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him get more minutes than Kelly just because we need that D/toughness inside. We really need to be beasts on the boards (or at least not let UNC get many second chance opportunities). Hopefully, we can get that third scorer again like Curry did the first time around. I'm confident that we'll come to play. Singler and Nolan will obviously bring the toughness and I think the rest of the team will follow their leads.

LET'S GO DUKE! GO TO HELL CAROLINA!

The key points are highlighted.

[MChambers]

3) Force UNC to shoot jump shots. UNC is not a good shooting team. Duke needs to protect the basket and cover Leslie McDonald on the perimeter. The rest of the team is not a threat to score from outside.

I agree with you, but looking at Pomeroy the thing that Duke does defensively better than almost anyone (and this is true most years) is take away the three point shot. We're 6th in the country, with only 25% of the shots allowed being three pointers. So Duke will have to adjust the way it plays a bit, if it is to follow this strategy.

[whereinthehellami]

UNC is shooting 45% FG, 66% FT, and 32% from 3.
Duke is shooting 47% FG, 75% FT, and 39% from 3.
Zeller is UNC's leading scorer (14.6 PPG) and their leader in FG% (54%) and FT% (76%)
UNC has attempted 465 3's with Barnes (134) and Mcdonald (109) attempting over 100.
Duke has attempted 645 3's with Singler (165), Smith (137), Dawkins(122), and Curry (117) attempting over 100.
Since the Duke game UNC is 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 6.1 PPG.
Since the UNC game Duke is 5-1 with an average margin of victory of 11.8 PPG


A Singler Vs. Prince Harry Comparison

Barnes is shooting 41% FG, 73% FT, and 32% from 3.
Singler is shooting 43% FG, 81% FT, and 35% from 3.
Barnes is averaging 27.9 MPG, 13.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.6 BPG, 0.4 SPG, and 1.9 TOPG.
Singler is averaging 34.5 MPG, 17.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 BPG, 0.4 SPG, and 1.9 TOPG.

[ChicagoHeel]

A Singler Vs. Prince Harry Comparison

Barnes is shooting 41% FG, 73% FT, and 32% from 3.
Singler is shooting 43% FG, 81% FT, and 35% from 3.
Barnes is averaging 27.9 MPG, 13.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.6 BPG, 0.4 SPG, and 1.9 TOPG.
Singler is averaging 34.5 MPG, 17.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 BPG, 0.4 SPG, and 1.9 TOPG.


This is interesting. I did not expect that their statistics would be so close.

[weezie]

UNC will be juiced for Barnes....Senior Night. :)


LOL, you mean "The Black Falcon"? That's the nickname the 620am guys were using for him this morning on the drive home up I-85. I groaned out loud every time I heard it, which was about 30 times. Utterly ridiculous.
Good old Strickland, declaring the win for the 'holes. What a super-confident dope.

[dukelifer]

According to Pomeroy, the edge goes to us, by 1 point (56% chance of victory). Not that this means anything, but I just wanted to point that out.

Yes- but Pomeroy does not factor in 34 years of emotional angst in enduring these games- but I agree it is a tossup. Without any research to back it up at the moment- it seems that when the two teams are even- the teams split the regular season. Okay, now I will need to check that out- another half hour gone.

[ns7]

I agree with you, but looking at Pomeroy the thing that Duke does defensively better than almost anyone (and this is true most years) is take away the three point shot. We're 6th in the country, with only 25% of the shots allowed being three pointers. So Duke will have to adjust the way it plays a bit, if it is to follow this strategy.

True, historically we take away layups and 3pt shots as those are the most efficient ways to score (besides FTs). Maybe we should tweak a bit more towards taking away layups and 2nd chance opportunities to score. But I'd rather us keep doing what we do well than change and execute poorly. This is why our coaches get paid the big bucks.

[superdave]

LOL, you mean "The Black Falcon"? That's the nickname the 620am guys were using for him this morning on the drive home up I-85. I groaned out loud every time I heard it, which was about 30 times. Utterly ridiculous.
Good old Strickland, declaring the win for the 'holes. What a super-confident dope.

That is a turrible nickname. I'm sure the frat boys at Carolina love it though. They even started a facebook page for it.

[Matches]

That is a turrible nickname. I'm sure the frat boys at Carolina love it though. They even started a facebook page for it.

They're trying too hard.

Nicknames rarely stick unless they're *shorter* than the player's actual name. There are a few exceptions*, but why waste time saying or typing "The Black Falcon" instead of "Barnes" or "HB"?

* such as "Withdrew" instead of "Drew"....

[moonpie23]

from the N&O


UNC's Strickland: 'I know we're going to win on Saturday'
Submitted by rpickeral on 03/03/2011 - 08:33

Tags: ACC Now | Dexter Strickland | UNC
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – A couple of months ago, most folks had Duke penciled in as the ACC regular-season champ. But after reeling off its sixth straight victory on Wednesday night at Florida State – thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer by Harrison Barnes – No. 13 North Carolina could take the title, and the top seed in the ACC tournament, with a win over the Blue Devils on Saturday.
Shooting guard Dexter Strickland, for one, seems certain it will happen...
I think that on Saturday, we’re going to win. I know we’re going to win on Saturday....
“ I knew my potential, and my team’s potential,’’ he said. “All-Americans … we just have to play to our potential. If everyone plays to our potential, who’s going to stop us?”

link (http://m.newsobserver.com/observer/db_882/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Vl4XqdYX&storycount=19&detailindex=2&pn=&ps=&full=true#display)

[jaygdevil11]

Thanks for the motivation Dex, I hope Nolan and Kyle read this.

[Reilly]

Strong. Together. Talk. Crash.

[ChicagoHeel]

It makes me uncomfortable, but I agree with a couple of the comments above. Black Falcon is a terrible name. I believe it is a take on Kobe's Black Mamba, which itself is terrible. If he is going to swipe an NBA star's name, might as well take Robert Horry's and become Big Shot Barnes.

As for Dexter's comment, I'm happy to see the confidence but no need to provide fodder for your opponent. Not sure Duke players need any extra motivation, but still don't like giving it to them.

[-bdbd]

Note to Dexter: Thank you for the bulletin-board material. Much appreciated.
Signed, Coach K :rolleyes:



from the N&O


UNC's Strickland: 'I know we're going to win on Saturday'
Submitted by rpickeral on 03/03/2011 - 08:33

Tags: ACC Now | Dexter Strickland | UNC
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – A couple of months ago, most folks had Duke penciled in as the ACC regular-season champ. But after reeling off its sixth straight victory on Wednesday night at Florida State – thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer by Harrison Barnes – No. 13 North Carolina could take the title, and the top seed in the ACC tournament, with a win over the Blue Devils on Saturday.
Shooting guard Dexter Strickland, for one, seems certain it will happen.
“I’m glad it’s home; that will give us a little advantage,’’ the shooting guard said after Wednesday’s victory. “I feel like the last time we played them, we just made mental errors that can be mentally corrected. I think that on Saturday, we’re going to win. I know we’re going to win on Saturday. I have a lot of confidence in myself and in my teammates. And if everybody has the same attitude I do, I know we’re going to win.”
Strickland said his belief isn’t anything new; even back when UNC was struggling, he said he “absolutely” knew his team could be in this position.
“ I knew my potential, and my team’s potential,’’ he said. “All-Americans … we just have to play to our potential. If everyone plays to our potential, who’s going to stop us?”

[Chris Randolph]

My opinion (which means zero but is fun to type anyways) on the keys to the game

Besides my favorite, which is scoring more points than the opposing team :), I think:

1) Keep it a half court game. Grind it into a game of execution and not an up and down battle. We can pick our spots to push, but they must be limited and in a favorable situation.

2) Free Throw Shooting

3) Our bigs don't have to out play or out stat their bigs, but keep it respectable

4) Kyle and Nolan have to be the all americans they are for the full 40 minutes. Includes scoring, rebounding, low turnovers and DEFENSE!

If we can do these four things I like our chances... I like them a lot

[SMO]

You guys were obviously jittery in the first half last time, which can in part be attributed to the pressure of playing at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see you come out playing more smoothly.

This is an excellent point. Jay Bilas once stated that the home team is at a disadvantage in this rivalry due to emotion. I think the 1st half will be a bigger test for UNC than for Duke.

[Devil-In-Law]

In describing to my eight-year old son why it was so important to world peace that Duke beat UNC this weekend, I found it useful to make the analogies between UNC and Slytherin House and between Duke and Gryffindor. This seemed to help him understand the gravity of the situation, and it prompted me to consider individual correspondences of UNC personnel to Hogwarts. Here's what I have so far:

Harrison Barnes - Malfoy. I can definitely see Malfoy both calling himself the Black Falcon and overusing social media.

Tyler Zeller and John Henson - these are clearly Crabbe and Goyle, Malfoy's henchman, though Henson is too skinny to make it a perfect analogy.

Kendall Marshall - I thinke he is most comparable to Dudley Dursley - both being slow moving and leaders of boorish louts.

Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland - Professor Quirrel and Peter Pettigrew, respectively, weaker men who dedicated their lives to the service of the Dark Lord.

Roy Williams - Voldemort, though I did consider making him Severus Snape, with Dean Smith being Voldemort.

Any additional thoughts would be much appreciated - I do want to help my son understand what's at stake.

Since my wife was busy buying her ticket for the Universal Wizarding World of Harry Potter in Orlando when I read your post, I thought your comparisons, besides giving me a good chuckle, were very insightful. Additionally, they helped take my mind off the Toe Vigil and reminded me that this Saturday's match-up was, after all, just a game- yeah, right.

You stopped short of drawing any comparisons between the Duke team and the good guys in the series. I can easily see the Plumlees cast as the Weasley twins. It is not hard to picture Kyle as Ron. Nolan as Harry is more of a stretch, but just imagine him with some round glasses on. Kyrie could fill the shoes of Sirius, nicknamed Padfoot in the books. Now unable to play, doubtlessly, Azkaban and the Dementors have been at the root of his toe problem. Coach K with long grey hair and beard, wizarding robes and a pointed hat might pass for Dumbledore. Could Ryan be a young Hagrid minus the bushy beard not quite filled out yet? Need help with some of the other players/characters.

In any event, it is going to take a special effort from our cast of characters this Saturday to win in Chapel Hill. Focus, determination, hard work and perseverance all count for a lot when it comes to winning basketball games. I think we are well covered when it comes to the above; however, a few stupefy or patronus spells cast at our dastardly opponents at the appropriate times might not hurt either.

GO DUKE!

Devil-In-Law

[Bob Green]

Our outside bombers can't get intimidated by playing at the Dome.

Last season, in the game in Chapel Hill, we shot 50% on 3-pointers (9-18) in our 64-54 victory. Singler was 4-5 but Smith was 0-3. In 2009, in our 71-79 loss, we shot 38.1% (8-21) on 3-pointers. Singler was 4-10. In 2008, in our 89-78 victory, we shot 44.8% (13-29) on 3-pointers. Singler was 3-6 and Smith was 1-4.

In their careers, Singler and Smith are 2-1 at the Dean Smith Center. Singler has made 52.4% (11-21) of his 3-point attempts. Smith has went 1-7 (14.3%).

Outside of Singler and Smith, no player on the roster has made a 3-pointer inside the Smith Center. So while Duke as a team has performed well from behind the arc in Chapel Hill, I agree with your point that we must make our outside shots as that pressures Carolina's offense to respond.




1) Keep it a half court game. Grind it into a game of execution and not an up and down battle. We can pick our spots to push, but they must be limited and in a favorable situation.

We need to control tempo and not allow Carolina to play an up and down game like they did during the 1st half at Cameron. However, you hit the nail on the head when you say we can pick our spots to push as many of our patented runs occur when we use defense to generate transition offense.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

We are a 3 point shooting team without kyrie. If we make a high percentage we will probably win, if we don't we will probably lose. In our 3 losses this year we have shot 31% (FSU), 19% (SJU), and 20% (VPI).

There are lots of other factors that will come into play, but how we shoot the 3 will have the biggest impact on the game. These are 2 evenly matched good teams.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I'm expecting UNC to front the post on defense and force passes over the top while extending the D on the wings.... forcing Duke to drive more.

UNC just just can't let Duke get open looks and play to their shooting strength. Make Duke drive and score over the inside length of Henson/Zeller.

I expect a much more aggressive Barnes on offense than the last game. He's going to have lazer focus in this one and UNC knows they need him to score.

My guess is Henson will be the player of the game if UNC wins. He's a stud and getting better every game. Most upside of any player on the court.

Mental edge to Duke in a tight one, UNC still plays young at times.

Still a toss up.

[Kedsy]

We are a 3 point shooting team without kyrie. If we make a high percentage we will probably win, if we don't we will probably lose. In our 3 losses this year we have shot 31% (FSU), 19% (SJU), and 20% (VPI).

There are lots of other factors that will come into play, but how we shoot the 3 will have the biggest impact on the game. These are 2 evenly matched good teams.

Your analysis is incomplete. A lot of times we shoot the 3 poorly and win: Maryland 1 (28.6%), UVA 1 (25.0%), NCSU 1 (30.4%), UNC 1 (30.8%), UVA 2 (31.3%). All wins, and in all those games we shot worse from 3 than we did against FSU.

And I attended the St. Johns game, and while we did shoot very poorly from 3-point range, that's not why we lost.

[UrinalCake]

I'm expecting UNC to front the post on defense and force passes over the top while extending the D on the wings.... forcing Duke to drive more.


Not many teams have fronted us in the post, I'll be curious to see if this is used and how effective it is. I would imagine we would attack that by having our guards attack the weak side and then look for the alley-oop. Passing over the top isn't really our strength, as we have a hard enough time making even normal, simple entry passes into the post.

The problem with extending D on the wings is that we'll just screen off the ball and pass back and forth around the perimeter over and over until we see an opening. I do think that if Henson gets a couple big blocks early that will set the tone and our guys will be more reluctant to take it inside.

[77devil]

We are a 3 point shooting team without kyrie. If we make a high percentage we will probably win, if we don't we will probably lose. In our 3 losses this year we have shot 31% (FSU), 19% (SJU), and 20% (VPI).

There are lots of other factors that will come into play, but how we shoot the 3 will have the biggest impact on the game. These are 2 evenly matched good teams.


Your analysis is incomplete. A lot of times we shoot the 3 poorly and win: Maryland 1 (28.6%), UVA 1 (25.0%), NCSU 1 (30.4%), UNC 1 (30.8%), UVA 2 (31.3%). All wins, and in all those games we shot worse from 3 than we did against FSU.

And I attended the St. Johns game, and while we did shoot very poorly from 3-point range, that's not why we lost.

The OP's comment was not particularly insightful but, nevertheless, the point is accurate. The MD, UNC, and UVA 1 from your list were at CIS, where Duke has a greater margin of error, and the rest were against bottom feeders. These are hardly relevant comparisons to playing a resurgent UNC at the Dome in THE rivalry for the ACC regular season championship. Bottom line: without the 3, Duke is in big trouble on Saturday.

[NSDukeFan]

My opinion (which means zero but is fun to type anyways) on the keys to the game

Besides my favorite, which is scoring more points than the opposing team :), I think:

1) Keep it a half court game. Grind it into a game of execution and not an up and down battle. We can pick our spots to push, but they must be limited and in a favorable situation.

2) Free Throw Shooting

3) Our bigs don't have to out play or out stat their bigs, but keep it respectable

4) Kyle and Nolan have to be the all americans they are for the full 40 minutes. Includes scoring, rebounding, low turnovers and DEFENSE!

If we can do these four things I like our chances... I like them a lot

I think I most agree with #1. I think Carolina could have trouble scoring against Duke in the half-court, since they aren't a great outside shooting team. I think Marshall changes their half court offense with his ability to penetrate though. I agree that Duke's 3 point shooting could make or break things, unless the team can get Henson and Zeller to move out of the paint to better open up driving lanes.
This certainly has the potential to be a great game.

[roywhite]

I'm expecting UNC to front the post on defense and force passes over the top while extending the D on the wings.... forcing Duke to drive more.

UNC just just can't let Duke get open looks and play to their shooting strength. Make Duke drive and score over the inside length of Henson/Zeller.

I expect a much more aggressive Barnes on offense than the last game. He's going to have lazer focus in this one and UNC knows they need him to score.

My guess is Henson will be the player of the game if UNC wins. He's a stud and getting better every game. Most upside of any player on the court.

Mental edge to Duke in a tight one, UNC still plays young at times.

Still a toss up.

Of note on Barnes:
For a guy that takes a good number of shots, he doesn't get to the line much.
Kyle did an excellent job on Barnes in Durham; the matchup will again be very important.

Another key for Duke....Mason Plumlee, who has been steadier lately, scoring a bit more, blocking shots, and avoiding foul trouble. Important for him to play well vs Henson and Zeller.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

Your analysis is incomplete. A lot of times we shoot the 3 poorly and win: Maryland 1 (28.6%), UVA 1 (25.0%), NCSU 1 (30.4%), UNC 1 (30.8%), UVA 2 (31.3%). All wins, and in all those games we shot worse from 3 than we did against FSU.

And I attended the St. Johns game, and while we did shoot very poorly from 3-point range, that's not why we lost.

Right...that's why I said there will be lots of other factors involved. I just think how we shoot the 3 will be the most important factor.

We destroyed UVA and NCSU on the boards which made up for some of our poor shooting. I don't think we will have that advantage on Saturday.

We shot poorly vs MD and UNC, but we still outshot our opponents. If MD doesn't clank 11 of their 14 or UNC doesn't brick 12 of 14 we could easily lose either of those games. I would love to see UNC shoot 14% again, but I wouldn't bank on it.

SJU was a different animal, you're right....

We are so evenly matched, that's how I see it shaking out.

[bluepenguin]

A lot of analysis and speculation posted in this thread. Most of which predict a Duke victory "if ...." But I am not sure all those "ifs" are necessarily reasonable assumptions given what we have seen this season.

Last year's team was fun to watch. We saw it grow throughout the season from a good team to a really good team to a great team. There was consistent growth and you could see it. This year's team, TO ME, has not shown that same growth. Sometimes it seems that for every two steps forward, there is a step backwards. Here is what I have felt about this season:


No question about it, the Butler game was a critical juncture for this team i.e. with Kyrie and without Kyrie. There is nothing that can be done about that. But the team just looked better when he was in the lineup. It doesn't seem like we ever settled on our "new" identity without him.

There has just been too much inconsistent play the last ten games or so. I can't ever remember a Duke team that would go on a 14-2 run and then go stone cold and allow the opponent to then go on a 10-0 run to get back in the game. Why is this happening? Maybe because

There have been too many mental errors. Nolan has been a brilliant player this year. But lately, it seems that he is trying to do it all himself and making some less than smart plays. And it isn't just Nolan. The entire team seems to lose focus at times - very uncharacteristic for a Coach K team. This tends to lead to

Too many defensive lapses. Of course, this explains how teams have been able to go on runs against Duke! Sure this has happened to other Duke teams at times, but it seems to be happening more often with this year's team. As a result

There have been too many turnovers. More per game than I can remember with a Coach K team. When you turn the ball over, you aren't scoring. Duke had 20 turnovers last night, to only 13 for Clemson! And I think the turnovers have caused

Too many dry spells of extended minutes without scoring. The ACC has been down this season, and Duke has survived these droughts. But, I think it is going to be very problematical come tourney time. Especially if the team spends

Too much time standing around and watching TWO players try to do it all. That didn't work in the JJ/Shelden era. There has been a lot of talk about who the third scoring option would be. Coming into the last game of the season and we are still hoping someone, ANYONE, will step up and be a consistent third scoring threat.

Lastly, there have been too many ugly first halves. I have no idea why this team can't start hot and keep building from there.


Please don't throw statistics back as the answer that I must be wrong. We all know what statistics mean. In fact, someone posted in another thread that statistically, Duke was doing better WITHOUT Kyrie in the lineup. Again, these observations are my gut feeling.

Also, no need to flame, just trying to view the season through non-Duke colored glasses. I am as big a Duke fan as all of you (that really is my license plate). But, sometimes I think I am blinded by my faith and make a conscious effort to step back and try to take a realistic view of the season. I sure as heck hope you guys are right and I'm just yelling that the sky is falling. I'm just not feeling as confident as the rest of you guys about Sat's game.

[moonpie23]

could this be HWNSNBM last game in the nose dome? if he's the only one that truly knows it, could that be a motivating factor for him?

[Newton_14]

Of note on Barnes:
For a guy that takes a good number of shots, he doesn't get to the line much.
Kyle did an excellent job on Barnes in Durham; the matchup will again be very important.

Another key for Duke....Mason Plumlee, who has been steadier lately, scoring a bit more, blocking shots, and avoiding foul trouble. Important for him to play well vs Henson and Zeller.

Welcome back Roy! Good to have you posting again. I agree that our bigs will need to step up and play like they did in the 2nd Half of game 1. I was surprised Miles did not get more minutes last night against Clemson's front line, but I guess Mason was playing so well K just rolled with him. Even Ryan sat a lot last night in the 2nd half. We definitely will need Miles in this game. He defends Zeller better than any of the other bigs.

[ACCBBallFan]

The difference could be the seniors, for two reasons.

People on both sides of the rivalry are forgetting the UNC tradiiton of starting its seniors on senior night, not just Justin Knox but also Dan Bolick 5''10" Van Hatchell 6'4" and DJ Johnston 6'4" (I know ESPN says he is a Jr. but UNC site says Sr.).

Heels probably start Henson, hope to get the tip and play a modified four corners until the first TV timeout, witrh Henson defending under the boards.

So yes, Duke does need to get off to a good start or advantage UNC for the psychological lift from the walk ons keeping it close.

[BigZ]

This game comes down to how tough and physical the Plumlees play. In the first matchup Nolan and Seth got the scoring in the second half comeback but the Plumlee Bros were physical and pushed Henson and Zeller around in the second half. In the first half when UNC was ahead the Plumlees didn't use their strength advantage.

[Kedsy]

There have been too many turnovers. More per game than I can remember with a Coach K team.

* * *

Please don't throw statistics back as the answer that I must be wrong.

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous. You make statistical statements like we've had more turnovers per game than you can remember and then say don't throw statistics back at you?

The fact is, according to Pomeroy, our turnover % is the second best since Pomeroy's kept the stat (9 years), with only last year being better since 2003.

People, get over it. Kyrie got hurt. The team has gone on without him and is 27-3, which is pretty darn good, and is in pretty good position for a #1 seed. We may win or we may lose, but why are you talking about "too many defensive lapses" when according to Pomeroy we have the 2nd best defense in the nation?

The offensive scheme for the 2006 team worked fine, by the way. We had an amazing year and happened to lose in the NCAAT to a team that had won its previous game on a flukey half-court shot, so we probably shouldn't even have been playing them. That piece of bad luck shouldn't define the entire season for our team.

Incidentally, you now talk about last year's team being fun to watch, but last season you started a thread stating you were worried we'd lose to UNC (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?19216-Is-anyone-else-worried-about-the-UNC-game) too.

Just to make clear, this is not a flame, but please don't pretend your pessimism is a "realistic view" and expect nobody to argue back.

[Saratoga2]

I assume we will go primarily man-to-man defense, as UNC has a pretty limited outside shooting capability (McDonald and maybe Barnes) that could force us into a zone. My view of our best matchups defensively, are"

Zeller Kelly
Barnes Singler
Henson Mason plumlee
Marshall Smith
McDonald Curry


Off the bench

Knox Miles Plumlee
Strictland Dawkins

When they turn it around, I think the matchups will be similar, although I think Strictland will probably try to defend Nolan and Ryan could be a handful for Zeller if he takes him away from the basket. They might switch Henson to follow Ryan outside.

We need to take good shots and keep UNC from running. We do that and we may have the edge.

[Bob Green]

I assume we will go primarily man-to-man defense, as UNC has a pretty limited outside shooting capability (McDonald and maybe Barnes) that could force us into a zone. My view of our best matchups defensively, are"

Zeller Kelly
Barnes Singler
Henson Mason plumlee
Marshall Smith
McDonald Curry


Off the bench

Knox Miles Plumlee
Strictland Dawkins

When they turn it around, I think the matchups will be similar, although I think Strictland will probably try to defend Nolan and Ryan could be a handful for Zeller if he takes him away from the basket. They might switch Henson to follow Ryan outside.

We need to take good shots and keep UNC from running. We do that and we may have the edge.

I don't think we will see Dawkins guarding Strickland as Dexter is pretty fast with the ball. If Strickland and Marshall are both in the game, I'd look for Curry or Thornton to guard Strickland. If Strickland is in and Marshall out, Smith would take the assignment.

Dawkins will most likely guard McDonald.

[dukelifer]

A lot of analysis and speculation posted in this thread. Most of which predict a Duke victory "if ...." But I am not sure all those "ifs" are necessarily reasonable assumptions given what we have seen this season.

Last year's team was fun to watch. We saw it grow throughout the season from a good team to a really good team to a great team. There was consistent growth and you could see it. This year's team, TO ME, has not shown that same growth. Sometimes it seems that for every two steps forward, there is a step backwards. Here is what I have felt about this season:


No question about it, the Butler game was a critical juncture for this team i.e. with Kyrie and without Kyrie. There is nothing that can be done about that. But the team just looked better when he was in the lineup. It doesn't seem like we ever settled on our "new" identity without him.

There has just been too much inconsistent play the last ten games or so. I can't ever remember a Duke team that would go on a 14-2 run and then go stone cold and allow the opponent to then go on a 10-0 run to get back in the game. Why is this happening? Maybe because

There have been too many mental errors. Nolan has been a brilliant player this year. But lately, it seems that he is trying to do it all himself and making some less than smart plays. And it isn't just Nolan. The entire team seems to lose focus at times - very uncharacteristic for a Coach K team. This tends to lead to

Too many defensive lapses. Of course, this explains how teams have been able to go on runs against Duke! Sure this has happened to other Duke teams at times, but it seems to be happening more often with this year's team. As a result

There have been too many turnovers. More per game than I can remember with a Coach K team. When you turn the ball over, you aren't scoring. Duke had 20 turnovers last night, to only 13 for Clemson! And I think the turnovers have caused

Too many dry spells of extended minutes without scoring. The ACC has been down this season, and Duke has survived these droughts. But, I think it is going to be very problematical come tourney time. Especially if the team spends

Too much time standing around and watching TWO players try to do it all. That didn't work in the JJ/Shelden era. There has been a lot of talk about who the third scoring option would be. Coming into the last game of the season and we are still hoping someone, ANYONE, will step up and be a consistent third scoring threat.

Lastly, there have been too many ugly first halves. I have no idea why this team can't start hot and keep building from there.


Please don't throw statistics back as the answer that I must be wrong. We all know what statistics mean. In fact, someone posted in another thread that statistically, Duke was doing better WITHOUT Kyrie in the lineup. Again, these observations are my gut feeling.

Also, no need to flame, just trying to view the season through non-Duke colored glasses. I am as big a Duke fan as all of you (that really is my license plate). But, sometimes I think I am blinded by my faith and make a conscious effort to step back and try to take a realistic view of the season. I sure as heck hope you guys are right and I'm just yelling that the sky is falling. I'm just not feeling as confident as the rest of you guys about Sat's game.

This team does have weaknesses but it is interesting that you would likely feel the same way about this team if they were 30-0 right now. Two of Duke's losses were close and due to poor execution at critical moments and not some major flaw- and the loss to St Johns is a bit hard to explain- but even if we give that one 29-1 is about as good as it gets and you would still feel the same. This team has size and depth and balance-unlike a lot of previous Duke teams- but they are not dominant- just really solid. They have not played against great ACC competition this year and I think that will be a factor moving forward- you get better by playing good teams because it helps to correct problems before the post season.

As for Saturday's game- well it is a tossup and winning or losing is not going to change my feeling of either team going into the postseason- and there is a good chance they play again in a week anyway- and so which game is most important? This is post season time now- the slate will be clean. It is all about how the teams start playing the starting next Friday. Saturday's game will help to identify what else to work on- win or lose- because UNC is the only other FF caliber team in the league. After that, it is one weekend at a time. I think Duke is getting hyped to play well in the Dean Dome- K and the team will make adjustments.

[davekay1971]

This is going to be a fascinating game to watch. Not only is it, of course, Duke-Evil Empire, it's also an opportunity to see two teams playing again that have changed a great deal in the last month.

UNC has definitely improved (though let's not forget that their record does hide a very ugly, very close home win against BC and a by-their-fingernails win at Singleton-less-FSU). They have won the close games and earned the right to play against Duke, at home, for the ACC regular season "crown". They've also played their way into a probable 3 seed...and if they beat us tomorrow AND win the ACCT, they may get a 2 seed.

So how does it break down now, compared to a month ago? The big differences, as I see them:

1) Marshall - last time we played them he was on fire, having taken over the PG spot and he was playing remarkably good basketball. He's come back down to earth some, but if we see the same Marshall in the Dean Dome that we saw in Cameron, that'll be tough, because his passing and control of the offense can be a difference-maker

2) Curry - with the exception of the Va Tech game, he's become that consistent 3rd scorer that we've been looking for. He was great against UNC at Cameron. It'll be hard for him to be THAT good on the road, but we've seen Duke players before who just seem to have Carolina's number. And with Carolina's perimeter defense being basically Strickland (who'll check Smith), Curry may be the matchup advantage we need.

3) Henson - Just keeps getting better. He's added offense to his rebounding and shotblocking. Mason is big enough and athletic enough to defend him, but Henson is going to make it tough for us to get much interior scoring. Henson makes us even more dependent on our outside shooting. To his credit, he's seemed to really embrace his role as an interior defender/shotblocker/rebounder. Whether that's him growing or good coaching/motivation by Roy, it's pretty impressive for a kid who came to Chapel Hill demanding to play the wing to prep for his NBA career. We give props to Duke kids who accept changes in their role for the benefit of the team...time to give Henson those props (ugh, barf, time to go wash my typing fingers clean).

4) Kyle vs The Black Pigeon - They've both struggled with offense at times. Kyle is the ultimate warrior, but his outside shot has been inconsistent, especially away from Cameron. The Black Pigeon has developed an annoying knack for hitting important shots, but his shooting is still inconsistent. If one of them has a clear advantage over the other this weekend, it could be an important factor in the outcome.

5) X-factors: Ryan Kelly and Andre Dawkins for us, Leslie McDonald for them. We've seen so many games where a "role player" comes out and hits crucial buckets. If McDonald has a lights out game from the perimeter (which he's done before, just not often or consistently), or Dre finds room and range, that would be HUGE for this game. Kelly is just amazing to watch, even when he's not scoring. He could do a lot in this game - if he's hitting from outside, especially early, then either Henson or Zeller is going to have to come out to guard him, opening up the lane.

Can't wait for tipoff. I hope we win, but I'm not predicting it. This is going to be an emotional, intense game with more than bragging rights on the line.

[superdave]

I assume we will go primarily man-to-man defense, as UNC has a pretty limited outside shooting capability (McDonald and maybe Barnes) that could force us into a zone. My view of our best matchups defensively, are"

Zeller Kelly
Barnes Singler
Henson Mason plumlee
Marshall Smith
McDonald Curry

Off the bench

Knox Miles Plumlee
Strictland Dawkins

When they turn it around, I think the matchups will be similar, although I think Strictland will probably try to defend Nolan and Ryan could be a handful for Zeller if he takes him away from the basket. They might switch Henson to follow Ryan outside.

We need to take good shots and keep UNC from running. We do that and we may have the edge.

Miles played really well defensively in the 2nd half vs. Unc in the first game. There were some possessions he was just throwing his body around. I think we need to play their big guys that way and try to push them out a step, to be more physical. Their bigs are quicker than us and can jump with us. Also, I do expect Kyle and Nolan to crash the boards some. I'm assuming we want a half-court game, so crashing the boards on the defensive ends takes away their second chances and wont keep us from running since we dont really plan to.

Defensively we need to keep Marshall out of the lane in addition to playing the passing lanes. He's always looking up the court to make the long pass, so everyone has to bust their butt to get back. I'm not sure what we get out of Tyler this game after the first matchup with them - hoping he steps up. If we can slow Marshall down, keep him out of the lane and body up their bigs, this will be a Duke paced game and their youth will show.

[superdave]

The Black Pigeon

I may start a Facebook page for this if I get bored today.

[Curt]

my first post ever on the day before a potential classic, Duke by 9

[weezie]

Isn't it great, though?! With all the misery and bad news abounding on our Planet Earth, we've got something outstanding to obsess about. Doctors, lawyers, rocket scientists, PhDs, titans of industry, writers, teachers, people of substance and accomplishment: we'll all be turning our tvs on to cheer for our team tomorrow night. How lucky are we?!
It's the best!

Oh yeah, you 'holes get to watch, too. It's always nice to be kind to those less fortunate....I guess.

[dukebluesincebirth]

"4) Kyle vs The Black Pigeon - They've both struggled with offense at times. Kyle is the ultimate warrior, but his outside shot has been inconsistent, especially away from Cameron. The Black Pigeon has developed an annoying knack for hitting important shots, but his shooting is still inconsistent. If one of them has a clear advantage over the other this weekend, it could be an important factor in the outcome."

Kyle has to make the pigeon work on defense, which I believe means taking him down low to the blocks often and making him guard Kyle in the low post. Kyle's jumper hasn't been falling and he can't just fall in love with the 3 if he makes one. Get physical with the freshman by taking him down low, and maybe draw some fouls on Zeller or Henson in the process. This takes a little of the offensive pep out of the pigeon when he has to really work on defense

[UrinalCake]

Dawkins will most likely guard McDonald.

Dawkins will eat McDonald for lunch.

Sorry, just had to get that out of my system. Strickland and McDonald are pretty big x-factors for the Heels, as they need SOMEBODY to provide some outside shooting (other than Barnes in the last two minutes of the game). If one of them can provide more than the zero points offered by Bullock in the last game, that could be the difference in the outcome.

[UrinalCake]

Kyle has to make the pigeon work on defense, which I believe means taking him down low to the blocks often and making him guard Kyle in the low post.

Absolutely - he was open under the basket so many times in the first game, as he worked really hard to seal off his man. We only threw it to him twice that I can remember, and both times he drew a foul on the ground. The rest of the time we just ignored him. Feed the post!

On the other side of the ball, I've heard a scouting report that says that if you make Singler work on defense, that will take him out of his game offensively. I guess I can see some truth to that, though he always plays good defense and certainly has had some good offensive games. I'll be watching Singler/Barnes off the ball a lot this game.

[Sir Stealth]

Make Carolina work hard for their points. If Barnes gets points by hitting a bunch of contested jumpers, fine, but we must:

1) Get back on defense. UNC is more effective than any other team at somehow getting fast breaks not just off of missed shots, but off of made baskets as well. Giving up an easy basket after you've just made a play is brutal. Nolan will really have to remember not to waste any time running back after he makes a successful drive, and our bigs will have to remain alert.

2) Not give up offensive rebounds. I would love it if we could limit Henson offensive putbacks to zero. I think Mason could have a big offensive performance in this game, but it will be most important for all our bigs to hit the glass hard. They did a great job of this in the 2nd half of game 1, and it was a huge part of turning the tide in that game.

[dukebluesincebirth]

"I feel like the last time we played them, we just made mental errors that can be mentally corrected. I think that on Saturday, we're going to win. I know we're going to win on Saturday"- Dexter Strickland, Charlotte Observer

Interesting quote I found from a tar hole who doesn't seem to be in much of a position to be guaranteeing wins. I think we could catch this carolina team being a little too overconfident in this game. I'm getting the since that just because they blew a big halftime lead last game, they think all they're going to have to do Saturday is protect another big lead and ride into the sunset...not so fast my friends!

[TonyWR]

"I feel like the last time we played them, we just made mental errors that can be mentally corrected. I think that on Saturday, we're going to win. I know we're going to win on Saturday"- Dexter Strickland, Charlotte Observer

Interesting quote I found from a tar hole who doesn't seem to be in much of a position to be guaranteeing wins. I think we could catch this carolina team being a little too overconfident in this game. I'm getting the since that just because they blew a big halftime lead last game, they think all they're going to have to do Saturday is protect another big lead and ride into the sunset...not so fast my friends!

And I'd like to add this tidbit to the truth above, K rarely makes the same mistake twice. He is a master strategist and the holes will see tomorrow night the true genius of our coach. The dolt Strickland has the mentality that it was their undoing that cost them the game, that's so far from the truth. Duke mustered the will power and passion to win, that's how the game was won. Their arrogance mixed with ignorance is sometimes beyond comprehension. Duke will prevail once again.

[Vincetaylor]

In each of our 3 losses, we have only had 2 players in double figures. We need a 3rd guy to step up and score 13+ points. It's as simple as that. I seriously doubt it will be any of our bigs, so that leaves Seth or Andre.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Isn't it great, though?! With all the misery and bad news abounding on our Planet Earth, we've got something outstanding to obsess about. Doctors, lawyers, rocket scientists, PhDs, titans of industry, writers, teachers, people of substance and accomplishment: we'll all be turning our tvs on to cheer for our team tomorrow night. How lucky are we?!
It's the best!

Oh yeah, you 'holes get to watch, too. It's always nice to be kind to those less fortunate....I guess.

Gaddafi, Galliano, or Charlie Sheen?

Agreed. Duke-UNC is a nice change up.

GTHC GTH!!!

[superdave]

In each of our 3 losses, we have only had 2 players in double figures. We need a 3rd guy to step up and score 13+ points. It's as simple as that. I seriously doubt it will be any of our bigs, so that leaves Seth or Andre.

Mason has scored 83 points in his last 9 games - just below 10 points a game, with a high of 16 vs. State. His scoring these games has been remarkably consistent too. If he gets a few more touches I could easily see him average 12-13 the rest of the season.

Dawkins and Kelly have far less consistency. I'd argue that Seth is our 3rd scorer and Mason our 4th at this point in the season.

[ChicagoHeel]

Kyle vs The Black Pigeon

Black Pigeon is pretty funny- and is another in a long list of reasons HB needs a new nickname.

One other item to add to the list of things to watch is how Duke plays Zeller. He scorched you guys for 24 points last time. I am not sure what kind of adjustments K will make, but I would recommend getting really physical with him. The knock on Zeller is always been that his offensive timing can be thrown off by physical play. I think he's overcome that this year to a certain extent, but in the FSU game it looked like the roughness got in his head (a choke-hold tackle will do that). If I were K I would tell Miles, Mason, and Murton Plumlee to not worry about fouls and go at him hard.

[superdave]

Black Pigeon is pretty funny- and is another in a long list of reasons HB needs a new nickname.

One other item to add to the list of things to watch is how Duke plays Zeller. He scorched you guys for 24 points last time. I am not sure what kind of adjustments K will make, but I would recommend getting really physical with him. The knock on Zeller is always been that his offensive timing can be thrown off by physical play. I think he's overcome that this year to a certain extent, but in the FSU game it looked like the roughness got in his head (a choke-hold tackle will do that). If I were K I would tell Miles, Mason, and Murton Plumlee to not worry about fouls and go at him hard.

Physical with Zeller? Yes. I'd maybe even start Miles in order to place his forearm directly in Zeller's lower back and keep it there the first 15 minutes of the game.

[UrinalCake]

Mason has scored 83 points in his last 9 games - just below 10 points a game, with a high of 16 vs. State. His scoring these games has been remarkably consistent too. If he gets a few more touches I could easily see him average 12-13 the rest of the season.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Mason scoring more than 6 or 7. He's going to have to focus so much on defense and rebounding that his offense will take a back seat. Never mind that he's going up against Zeller and gumby.

[Kedsy]

Never mind that he's going up against Zeller and gumby.

Not sure I agree entirely with this. Yes, Mason will have to put out a lot of energy on the defensive end, but Henson especially seems to get most of his blocks on help defense. UNC doesn't particularly shut down opposing bigs:

Reggie Johnson: 11/13
Tracy Smith: 12/7 and 12/3
Jordan Williams: 16/19
Joe Trapani: 25/15 and 13/8
Chris Singleton: 15/4
Devin Booker: 11/5 and 2/4 (but in that second game, Milton Jennings went 15/12)

So I'd suggest Mason will get pretty near what you'd expect him to get in a typical game. He averages 7 for the season and almost 9 since the last UNC game.

[wilko]

I think a lil bit differently than most of ya'll....

About Wed, Miles would have been locked in a cage and fed raw meat and given a dose of "Charlie Sheen". I'd start him and challenge him to take it to Big Ears and the Baby Giraffe STRONG. He should have nothing but offensive fouls (2-3) in the 1st couple of minutes of play trucking thru people and making them feel the burn. I don't mean over-the-back on rebound attempts. I mean like he intends to cause a compound arm fracture using the ball and the rim, if someone should get in his way.
Make them think 2x and go soft and timid .. over-think it nothing else..


In all seriousness, IF we can play 2 good halves of ball we should be in good shape.
We've only been playing 1 half for a while now... we are due for a complete game.

[ns7]

On the other side of the ball, I've heard a scouting report that says that if you make Singler work on defense, that will take him out of his game offensively. I guess I can see some truth to that, though he always plays good defense and certainly has had some good offensive games. I'll be watching Singler/Barnes off the ball a lot this game.

Maybe this is true, but Singler did a great job on Gordon Hayward in the NCAACG and still had a fantastic performance on offense.

[NM Duke Fan]

My distilled prescription for a win:

In contrast to many games, don't get out to a slow start. Play two reasonably complete halves of basketball instead of one half. Hit at least an average percent on
3's, and mix it up with some dribble drives and good passing for easy shots.

[ns7]

One other item to add to the list of things to watch is how Duke plays Zeller. He scorched you guys for 24 points last time. I am not sure what kind of adjustments K will make, but I would recommend getting really physical with him. The knock on Zeller is always been that his offensive timing can be thrown off by physical play. I think he's overcome that this year to a certain extent, but in the FSU game it looked like the roughness got in his head (a choke-hold tackle will do that). If I were K I would tell Miles, Mason, and Murton Plumlee to not worry about fouls and go at him hard.

It seems like the general strategy is to let Zeller get his points and shut down the perimeter and drives to the basket. If Zeller gets the ball in the paint them our defenders will put their hands up straight and maybe have the help side defender (if it's Mason) go for the block.

[94duke]

It seems like the general strategy is to let Zeller get his points and shut down the perimeter and drives to the basket. If Zeller gets the ball in the paint them our defenders will put their hands up straight and maybe have the help side defender (if it's Mason) go for the block.

We have to be careful about this. Zeller and Henson get a lot of buckets off of OReb. Going for too many blocks will leave them open for easy put-backs.

[gcashwell]

help side defender (if it's Mason) go for the block.

I have a huge problem with this. I think it has been one of the major problems of the Plumlees this year. I would rather see them both play proper defense like Singler does.

I think one of Miles' major problems on offense or defense is going for the spectacular play (be it block, rebound, or dunk) when he should be focusing on fundamentals.

I think a solid, fundamental effort by Duke wins this game.

[superdave]

Bilas gives a pretty good preview here (http://espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/page/notebookweekendwatch100304/march-4-march-6).

He basically says who controls the boards and the pace will win. He favors Carolina narrowly because they are at home. Good read.

[dukelifer]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft&id=6181077&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fblog%3fname%3dnba_draft%26id%3d6181077

What a last second shot or two will do for the draft stock.

[superdave]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft&id=6181077&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fblog%3fname%3dnba_draft%26id%3d6181077

What a last second shot or two will do for the draft stock.

The two comparisons I've seen of hime lately are Sean Elliot and Marvin Williams. That's bad for a kid who seems to want to be Jordan. I do think Barnes will be a better pro than college guy though - better spacing is good for jump shooters.

I dont see how anyone could take Barnes, Jones or Williams over Irving. Look at what Rose, Paul, Deron and Rondo are doing the league now. You need an elite PG.

[Andre Buckner Fan]

I dont see how anyone could take Barnes, Jones or Williams over Irving. Look at what Rose, Paul, Deron and Rondo are doing the league now. You need an elite PG.


Who cares! Let's flatter Prince Harry Barnes to the hilt so he'll leave Chapel Hill!

[ns7]

We have to be careful about this. Zeller and Henson get a lot of buckets off of OReb. Going for too many blocks will leave them open for easy put-backs.

I agree, but I was just posting about the way our defense is set up--Mason often goes for the block instead of rebounding. Earlier in my five key points I wrote that the main thing we need to do is keep UNC off of the offensive boards and I'd rather have Mason rebound than go for crazy blocks.

[Chris Randolph]

Duke or North Carolina?

Which team has the most pressure on them to win tomorrow night? Carolina because they are at home and are playing their best basketball in 2 years or Duke because they are the defending champs and were picked to win it prior to the season?

[yancem]

Duke or North Carolina?

Which team has the most pressure on them to win tomorrow night? Carolina because they are at home and are playing their best basketball in 2 years or Duke because they are the defending champs and were picked to win it prior to the season?

I would say the pressure is greater for Duke. If unc losses, they will be disappointed but it won't negatively effect their tournament seeding and they have already made a vast improvement over last season. If Duke looses, it could cost them a number 1 seed in the tournament and would be a major blow for a team that is the defending champions, were preseason # 1, have 2 All Americans and heavily favored to win the acc.

All that being said, I don't think that it is the end of the world if Duke looses but it would certainly take away some of our momentum. A win by the good guys on the other hand could be just the kind of momentum builder we need heading into tournament time.

[dukestheheat]

There is pressure on the Holes to win this game. They are at home, working for an outright crown in the ACC and the #1 seed in the ACC tourney, and looking to move up in the national rankings and restore the program to glory after we PASTED them last year in Derm by 32 points to be precise. Plus, they're down another player and thinner as a result.

GO DUKE! THROTTLE UP!!!!!

dukestheheat.

Duke>the holes. Plus my Latin signature line, 'Carolina is DEAD', wasn't written for nuthin' baby.

[WiJoe]

Duke.

Go to hell kerlina.

[Kedsy]

Mason often goes for the block instead of rebounding.

According to Pomeroy, Mason is the 27th best defensive rebounder in the nation (better than Henson and much better than Zeller (Miles is also better than Zeller at defensive rebounding). So while Mason does seem to go for a lot of blocks, I don't think it's at the expense of his rebounding.

As far as offensive rebounding (also according to Pomeroy) Henson is 102nd in the country, Miles is 124th, Mason is 166th, and Zeller is 197th. So, really, our big men are around the same as (or really a little better than) UNC's bigs at both offensive and defensive rebounding.

[-jk]

Kedsy, there you go again: bringing facts into the discussion again.

Thanks!

-jk

[Bob Green]

Here are the line-ups that achieved a positive +/- in the first game:


Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason-Miles (27-19, x4, +8)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Kelly-Miles (14-7, x2, +7)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason-Kelly (12-7, x2, +5)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (6-2, x2, +4)


We went big in the 2nd half of the first game so I expect we will go big a lot tomorrow. Mason, Miles and Kelly will be a key to our success. Plus we have to make our 3-pointers and get back on defense to eliminate transition opportunities.

[ns7]

According to Pomeroy, Mason is the 27th best defensive rebounder in the nation (better than Henson and much better than Zeller (Miles is also better than Zeller at defensive rebounding). So while Mason does seem to go for a lot of blocks, I don't think it's at the expense of his rebounding.

As far as offensive rebounding (also according to Pomeroy) Henson is 102nd in the country, Miles is 124th, Mason is 166th, and Zeller is 197th. So, really, our big men are around the same as (or really a little better than) UNC's bigs at both offensive and defensive rebounding.

Well, as a team we give up a lot more o-rebounds than UNC does. Looking individually I can't really find a difference except for Curry--but Nolan is a lot better than Marshall at rebounding.

Also, Henson and Mason are pretty much equivalent--25.7 vs. 25.1. Both are great rebounders.

[watzone]

Kyle Singler talks UNC game - http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/03/kyle-singler-talks-duke-unc/

[ncexnyc]

Here's what I'd like to see tomorrow night:
1. Miles plays physical on Zeller like he did in the 2nd half of the first game. Keeping Zeller off his sweet spots.
2. Both Ryan and Mason remember that Henson can only go to his left.
3. That Kyle remembers he doesn't have to do it all by himself.
4. Seth understands the key to stopping Marshall is to stay in front of him and staying on the court.
5. That Nolan shows the nation who the true POY is.
6. Tyler gets in Ol' McDonalds grill and takes him out of his game so he can't become a factor.
7. Andre realizes it's moments like these that he came to Duke for and buries a couple of 3's at crunch time.
I don't think that's too much to ask for.

[devildeac]

It seems like the general strategy is to let Zeller get his points and shut down the perimeter and drives to the basket. If Zeller gets the ball in the paint them our defenders will put their hands up straight and maybe have the help side defender (if it's Mason) go for the block.

That's called the "hansbro defense theory" and we still had fouls called on us for standing there with our arms straight up as he traveled/barreled into our guys:mad:.

[Class of '94]

I looked and didn't recall seeing this link posted; but if it has been, I apologize.

Check this out: http://www.wralsportsfan.com/college_basketball/story/9217819/ .

I think it's an interesting contrast between Strickland guaranteeing a win on Saturday and players like Barnes and Marshall talking about beating Duke while a Duke player like Nolan simply talking about what they need to focus on and do in tomorrow's game without talking trash.

[jv001]

That's called the "hansbro defense theory" and we still had fouls called on us for standing there with our arms straight up as he traveled/barreled into our guys:mad:.

It's a good game plan, but the refs favored hansflop on every whistle. For tomorrow nights game:
1. We hit our 3s so unc will not get run outs. That means Kyle will need his shooting eye back. It's his time of year. So I expect Kyle to shoot well.
2. We control the backboards. Not give away offensive rebounds.
3. Control marshall and let him beat us with his shot not his passing.
4. Seth play like he did against them last game.
5. Andre give us a lift off the bench.
I think we win a very close game. Go Duke!

[ChicagoHeel]

The pressure is on us. We are playing at home, trying to avoid a four game losing streak, and trying to shift the balance back in our favor. You are playing with house money.

[wilson]

Plus my Latin signature line, 'Carolina is DEAD', wasn't written for nuthin' baby.Actually, your sig translates more nearly to "carolina must be destroyed," (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est) which is actually even better in my opinion.

[ChicagoHeel]

According to Pomeroy, Mason is the 27th best defensive rebounder in the nation (better than Henson and much better than Zeller (Miles is also better than Zeller at defensive rebounding). So while Mason does seem to go for a lot of blocks, I don't think it's at the expense of his rebounding.

As far as offensive rebounding (also according to Pomeroy) Henson is 102nd in the country, Miles is 124th, Mason is 166th, and Zeller is 197th. So, really, our big men are around the same as (or really a little better than) UNC's bigs at both offensive and defensive rebounding.

ESPN has us as the number one rebounding team in the country; Duke is. 25th. Pretty safe to say it is one of our strengths and an advantage vis-a-vis Duke. Last time you neutralized that advantage. We out rebounded you 45-40, but you grabbed one more offensive board. I would imagine most of that damage occurred in the second half. I would advise the Plums to focus on rebounds and pounding Zeller and not much else.

[BattierBattalion]

ESPN has us as the number one rebounding team in the country; Duke is. 25th. Pretty safe to say it is one of our strengths and an advantage vis-a-vis Duke. Last time you neutralized that advantage. We out rebounded you 45-40, but you grabbed one more offensive board. I would imagine most of that damage occurred in the second half. I would advise the Plums to focus on rebounds and pounding Zeller and not much else.

That's not accounting pace and thus rebounds available. I can look at kenpom is see that UNC has the 63rd best defensive rebounding percentage (or lowest offensive rebounding allowed).

Take all ESPN stats with a grain of salt.

[wilson]

I do think Barnes will be a better pro than college guy though - better spacing is good for jump shooters.I think HWSNBN could be a rich man's Richard Hamilton in the NBA...very solid shooter, especially in clutch situations, with (even more) lanky athleticism, enough to keep defenders honest to keep him from getting to the hole.

[dukelifer]

The pressure is on us. We are playing at home, trying to avoid a four game losing streak, and trying to shift the balance back in our favor. You are playing with house money.
Exactly- Duke should be relaxed and the seniors do like the Dean dome. Nolan and Kyle are 2-1 there. All things equal- UNC is supposed to win at home. Pressure on y'all.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I dont see how anyone could take Barnes, Jones or Williams over Irving. Look at what Rose, Paul, Deron and Rondo are doing the league now. You need an elite PG.

I don't think anyone would argue it is a mistake if a team picks Kyrie as #1, but if I was a NBA GM, my first choice would be Henson in this draft.

He obviously needs a couple of years, but if I could lock him up now, I would.

His game screams pro game...a springy Dennis Rodman type rebounder, same instincts to tip rebounds till he can get them...and is showing a steady motor each night like Rodman did... but with better offense and shot blocking skills...he has the potential to be better than Rodman was, and I know that is saying a lot.
Rodman was a stud.

Put him on my NBA team and in just a couple of years opposing coaches are changing game plans when they face my team.

Let him mature just a little mentally and pack another 20lbs and Henson's a monster in the college game...and a impact starting player on any pro team.

[devildeac]

I don't think anyone would argue it is a mistake if a team picks Kyrie as #1, but if I was a NBA GM, my first choice would be Henson in this draft.

He obviously needs a couple of years, but if I could lock him up now, I would.

His game screams pro game...a springy Dennis Rodman type rebounder, same instincts to tip rebounds till he can get them...and is showing a steady motor each night like Rodman did... but with better offense and shot blocking skills...he has the potential to be better than Rodman was, and I know that is saying a lot.
Rodman was a stud.

Put him on my NBA team and in just a couple of years opposing coaches are changing game plans when they face my team.

Let him mature just a little mentally and pack another 20lbs and Henson's a monster in the college game...and a impact starting player on any pro team.

Let's hope you are correct. Any way we can help you convince him and his family to declare now for the 2011 NBA draft?;)

[Starter]

Is Henson necessarily a whole lot better than burgeoning NBA bust Brandan Wright was? Wright was a very good college player. Consider:

Henson: 25.5 minutes, 11.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 3.2 blocks, 51% FG, 44% FT
Wright: 27.4 minutes, 14.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 64% FG, 56% FT

Pretty similar, no? Henson is a better pure shot blocker and rebounder -- though Wright was no slouch considering he was a freshman playing with Hansbrough -- while Wright was a better scorer and shot a better percentage from the field. They're both lousy at the line.

Ekpe Udoh is another comparison; his numbers at Baylor were very similar to what Henson's doing. And it's looking like a long time before he'll be physically ready to be an impact starter in the NBA.

I think Henson is an excellent college player, and certainly has the physical tools to be a good pro. But he can't shoot, and he'd need to get a lot stronger to be effective as a post player in the NBA. Kyrie Irving -- and probably Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger -- can step in and start right now for a whole lot of teams. You see the perceived value of Chris Paul and Deron Williams around the league and it's apparent that what Kyrie brings to the table is extremely valuable.

[DukieInBrasil]

Is Henson necessarily a whole lot better than burgeoning NBA bust Brandan Wright was? Wright was a very good college player. Consider:

Henson: 25.5 minutes, 11.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 3.2 blocks, 51% FG, 44% FT
Wright: 27.4 minutes, 14.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 64% FG, 56% FT

Pretty similar, no? Henson is a better pure shot blocker and rebounder -- though Wright was no slouch considering he was a freshman playing with Hansbrough -- while Wright was a better scorer and shot a better percentage from the field. They're both lousy at the line.

I think Henson is an excellent college player, and certainly has the physical tools to be a good pro. But he can't shoot, and he'd need to get a lot stronger to be effective as a post player in the NBA. Kyrie Irving -- and probably Perry Jones and Jared Sullinger -- can step in and start right now for a whole lot of teams. You see the perceived value of Chris Paul and Deron Williams around the league and it's apparent that what Kyrie brings to the table is extremely valuable.

Also, Wright was a Fr. and those are Barnes' So. #s. Just sayin'.

[BigZ]

I think the way the game is officiated will be huge, if the Plumlees are allowed to be physical it favors the Devils if not the Heels are helped.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Henson has the ability to shoot it, just needs to be developed.
He's much tougher inside than Wright, IMO.
Henson also has the freak body. Super long arms and a solid "caboose" for a base.
...and to the first thing you have to look for in a big man...soft hands.
...pay no attention to the emoticon ..can't delete it and it was a mistake ...damn new droid:)

[superdave]

Henson has the ability to shoot it, just needs to be developed.
He's much tougher inside than Wright, IMO.
Henson also has the freak body. Super long arms and a solid "caboose" for a base.
...and to the first thing you have to look for in a big man...soft hands.
...pay no attention to the emoticon ..can't delete it and it was a mistake ...damn new droid:)

He needs a 17 foot jumper and 30 lbs. But I admire your optimism.

[WillJ]

Since my wife was busy buying her ticket for the Universal Wizarding World of Harry Potter in Orlando when I read your post, I thought your comparisons, besides giving me a good chuckle, were very insightful. Additionally, they helped take my mind off the Toe Vigil and reminded me that this Saturday's match-up was, after all, just a game- yeah, right.

You stopped short of drawing any comparisons between the Duke team and the good guys in the series. I can easily see the Plumlees cast as the Weasley twins. It is not hard to picture Kyle as Ron. Nolan as Harry is more of a stretch, but just imagine him with some round glasses on. Kyrie could fill the shoes of Sirius, nicknamed Padfoot in the books. Now unable to play, doubtlessly, Azkaban and the Dementors have been at the root of his toe problem. Coach K with long grey hair and beard, wizarding robes and a pointed hat might pass for Dumbledore. Could Ryan be a young Hagrid minus the bushy beard not quite filled out yet? Need help with some of the other players/characters.

In any event, it is going to take a special effort from our cast of characters this Saturday to win in Chapel Hill. Focus, determination, hard work and perseverance all count for a lot when it comes to winning basketball games. I think we are well covered when it comes to the above; however, a few stupefy or patronus spells cast at our dastardly opponents at the appropriate times might not hurt either.

GO DUKE!

Devil-In-Law


I like your Duke Hogwarts assignments. I was wondering about whether Singler would make a good Krum, but I'm not far along enough in the series to know whether that would be appropriate.

The Universal Hogwarts section is pretty amazing. The broomstick ride through the castle, with both animation and real movement, was both incredible and vomitrocious (at least to this middle-aged stomach).

[DukieInBrasil]

Also, Wright was a Fr. and those are Barnes' So. #s. Just sayin'.

Sorry for bonehead moment, I was thinking Henson when I wrote Barnes, so my whole point is irrelevant. Just sayin'...

[Rogue]

I read the IC threads of the last game.. and obviously out scoring them by 20 in the second half , was not a key to the game..
We need to do what we did last game ( according to IC :confused: ) and bring OUR Refs, that give us ALL the calls.. because there is no way we'd have beat them with out OUR Refs.. had nothing to do with our players playing better the last 20 min..

I'd like to reflect on neighborhood, work chatter after the game.. Not one unc-ch fan said congrats.. none were ill tales,, but the whole office, work, neighborhood chatter was on how the first 20 min of the game went.. No one said,, " we were out of gas in the second half and couldn't stop Duke " no one said N Smith , S Curry took us to the cleaners.. it was all about the first 20 min, and how delighted they were with themselves..
Shallow fans.. :cool:

[Olympic Fan]

Make no mistake, this is a big game and the first in a string of championships that I expect Duke to compete for this season.

The first and the least important.

We have had a long thread about the relative merits of the ACC and the regular season title, but I just want to go on record BEFORE the game as saying that as much as I want the win tonight, I want the one next Sunday afternoon MORE (and then the games after that even more).

If Duke wins Saturday and loses in the ACC Tournament, I would consider that a slight negative result. If Duke loses Saturday and wins the ACC Tournament, I will consider that a positive result.

Of course, the dream is to win both (and the nightmare is to win neither).

I don't want to restart the regular season vs. tourney debate (except to say the official ACC champion is determined in the tourney, not the regular season), just to make it clear before tipoff what our priorities should be.

[AsiaMinor]

I think this game will come down to two things for Duke:
1. Playing as a "fist".
2. Character (or call it heart).
I also believe we will learn a lot about how we'll play in the tourney by watching this game.
GO DUKE.

[dukelifer]

Make no mistake, this is a big game and the first in a string of championships that I expect Duke to compete for this season.

The first and the least important.

We have had a long thread about the relative merits of the ACC and the regular season title, but I just want to go on record BEFORE the game as saying that as much as I want the win tonight, I want the one next Sunday afternoon MORE (and then the games after that even more).

If Duke wins Saturday and loses in the ACC Tournament, I would consider that a slight negative result. If Duke loses Saturday and wins the ACC Tournament, I will consider that a positive result.

Of course, the dream is to win both (and the nightmare is to win neither).

I don't want to restart the regular season vs. tourney debate (except to say the official ACC champion is determined in the tourney, not the regular season), just to make it clear before tipoff what our priorities should be.

This is true. Even if Duke wins tonight- next weeks games are more important and say more about preparation going into the NCAA. A lot can happen in a week or two to a team. Losses can fuel as well as dishearten.

[kong123]

I read the IC threads of the last game.. and obviously out scoring them by 20 in the second half , was not a key to the game..
We need to do what we did last game ( according to IC :confused: ) and bring OUR Refs, that give us ALL the calls.. because there is no way we'd have beat them with out OUR Refs.. had nothing to do with our players playing better the last 20 min..

I'd like to reflect on neighborhood, work chatter after the game.. Not one unc-ch fan said congrats.. none were ill tales,, but the whole office, work, neighborhood chatter was on how the first 20 min of the game went.. No one said,, " we were out of gas in the second half and couldn't stop Duke " no one said N Smith , S Curry took us to the cleaners.. it was all about the first 20 min, and how delighted they were with themselves..
Shallow fans.. :cool:

I see this a bit differently. Before the game, I was afraid Duke would beat UNC by double digits. I was afraid that UNC would show up like they did against Tech. I wanted the game to be close and I wanted UNC to show up and play with some heart. UNC did that in the first half.

However, I was never comfortable with the lead. I told my wife that Duke would comeback and I told her that if UNC could stop Duke from coming out of halftime with a big spurt, we had a chance to win it. None of that happened and Duke won the game.

So, what do we take from the game? Are we happy that UNC lost to Duke for the third time in a row? No, it kills me just like it has destroyed you guys in the past. I was happy that our young team played with such great heart in the first half. I am proud they didn't give up in the second half. I am proud that losing a big 1st half lead didn't bog the young team down for the rest of the season. I feel that they have learned from the loss. I believe it has made them tougher. Not many teams can go into Cameron and win a big game. Not many teams can go into Cameron and take it to Duke the way the heels did. We now have the experience of playing well against Duke and we have the experience of losing a close one. I think this group of kids is a special group that is capable of learning from their mistakes. I think they believe in themselves and in each other.

Ultimately, Duke may win this game and I will be equally disappointed. But, from where we were last year and where we were going into December and the ACC regular season, I am so happy that we have a shot to win the regular season championship outright. I am happy that I am able to keep this in perspective. With all of our recent success, it is hard to keep a fanbase grounded. Last year grounded me. I will now be careful not to get too high when things are going great. I do not consider the way UNC lost to Duke to be a moral victory, but I do see it as a stepping stone back to the top. If UNC wins the game tonight, we are back at the top of the ACC. Depending on who decides to stay or go, UNC could be an overwhelming favorite next year.

[lotusland]

I think Kyle's shot is the key. If he's on tonight we win, if not we struggle. He looked good Wednesday and he's a big game player. I think he gets 25 tonight and Duke wins by 10.

[Krzyzewskiville]

Dream Scenario:

We win...big, by like 15-20 pts.

Tony Parker decides to sign letter of intent with us on Monday.

Not getting to greedy, Bazz signs with UK.

Or, we could get both ;)

[hudlow]

...Kyrie plays tonight.

The reason the best and the brightest come to Duke is because they want to play in games like tonight's.

The ACCT or NCAAT finals are not guaranteed.

Lace 'em up tight Kyrie. You may never have this chance again.

GO DUKE!

[ns7]

I don't think anyone would argue it is a mistake if a team picks Kyrie as #1, but if I was a NBA GM, my first choice would be Henson in this draft.

He obviously needs a couple of years, but if I could lock him up now, I would.

His game screams pro game...a springy Dennis Rodman type rebounder, same instincts to tip rebounds till he can get them...and is showing a steady motor each night like Rodman did... but with better offense and shot blocking skills...he has the potential to be better than Rodman was, and I know that is saying a lot.
Rodman was a stud.

Put him on my NBA team and in just a couple of years opposing coaches are changing game plans when they face my team.

Let him mature just a little mentally and pack another 20lbs and Henson's a monster in the college game...and a impact starting player on any pro team.

No way Henson can go #1. He's just too limited offensively to warrant such a high pick.

[Wander]

I don't think anyone would argue it is a mistake if a team picks Kyrie as #1, but if I was a NBA GM, my first choice would be Henson in this draft.


I doubt there's a single NBA scout who comes anywhere close to agreeing with you.

Remember that time you claimed the second string guys of an NIT team were better than the starters for a national championship team? This is similar.

Henson is impressive and better than he's given credit for, but this is serious hyperbole.

[Chris Randolph]

...Kyrie plays tonight.

The reason the best and the brightest come to Duke is because they want to play in games like tonight's.

The ACCT or NCAAT finals are not guaranteed.

Lace 'em up tight Kyrie. You may never have this chance again.

GO DUKE!

Delusions of grandeur

[oldnavy]

A couple of keys for tonights game;

we need to push Zeller about one or two feet further off the block than where he wants to be. He is much less effective with his jump hook when he is just a foot or two further out than his comfort zone. Also, double down on the bigs when they get the ball in the post and make them pass OUT not interior.

we need to stick to their big men on penetration and not allow easy dump off baskets. Make the penetrater (Marshall) go to his right and show that he can finish.

Singler needs to score more in this game. I do not want to count on Currry having another spectacular night, even though he and Dawkins are capable of doing it.

We need to play some zone at times just to disrupt them. I am not saying abandon our primary defense, but maybe mix in a little more than normal.

Kelly could be the difference maker in this game. If he can bring the big assigned to him out to respect his jumper, that will open up the lane more for Nolan, Seth and even Singler. He needs to relax and just shoot the ball, and not rush his shot. When he relaxes and shoots, he is a very good shooter, but he has the tendency to tighten up and rush a little... hope he can avoid that and drop a couple of 15-20 footers tonight.

This game has the makings of a classic... wish both teams an injury free, cleanly played game. GO DUKE!!!

[ns7]

FYI, the Vegas line opened as a pick'em but betting has moved UNC to a 1 point favorite. My guess is that Vegas thinks Duke will win, but expects more money to come in on UNC, which made them set the line at even.

[1 24 90]

I'm hoping that the good luck charm announcing team of Nantz & Kellogg will provide a 7th consecutive win with these 2 behind the mic.

Go Duke!

[-bdbd]

I see this a bit differently. Before the game, I was afraid Duke would beat UNC by double digits. I was afraid that UNC would show up like they did against Tech. I wanted the game to be close and I wanted UNC to show up and play with some heart. UNC did that in the first half.

However, I was never comfortable with the lead. I told my wife that Duke would comeback and I told her that if UNC could stop Duke from coming out of halftime with a big spurt, we had a chance to win it. None of that happened and Duke won the game.

So, what do we take from the game? Are we happy that UNC lost to Duke for the third time in a row? No, it kills me just like it has destroyed you guys in the past. I was happy that our young team played with such great heart in the first half. I am proud they didn't give up in the second half. I am proud that losing a big 1st half lead didn't bog the young team down for the rest of the season. I feel that they have learned from the loss. I believe it has made them tougher. Not many teams can go into Cameron and win a big game. Not many teams can go into Cameron and take it to Duke the way the heels did. We now have the experience of playing well against Duke and we have the experience of losing a close one. I think this group of kids is a special group that is capable of learning from their mistakes. I think they believe in themselves and in each other.

Ultimately, Duke may win this game and I will be equally disappointed. But, from where we were last year and where we were going into December and the ACC regular season, I am so happy that we have a shot to win the regular season championship outright. I am happy that I am able to keep this in perspective. With all of our recent success, it is hard to keep a fanbase grounded. Last year grounded me. I will now be careful not to get too high when things are going great. I do not consider the way UNC lost to Duke to be a moral victory, but I do see it as a stepping stone back to the top. If UNC wins the game tonight, we are back at the top of the ACC. Depending on who decides to stay or go, UNC could be an overwhelming favorite next year. Here's hoping for yet another NC "moral victory," just like last time (with Duke winning by 6).

"Depending on who decides to stay or go, UNC could be an overwhelming favorite next year." Just like last year...

Note: Rogue STILL doesn't have his acknowledgement from an NC fan... ;) (I know, it's hard.)

[NashvilleDevil]

I'm hoping that the good luck charm announcing team of Nantz & Kellogg will provide a 7th consecutive win with these 2 behind the mic.

Go Duke!

But those 6 wins are in the postseason. The last time they announced a regular season Duke game was Georgetown last year.

[1 24 90]

But those 6 wins are in the postseason. The last time they announced a regular season Duke game was Georgetown last year.

Are you sure that wasn't Verne Lundquist with Kellogg? I didn't think Nantz did too many regular season games especially when the NFL was still going on.

[hq2]

I'd say about even.

For them: senior day at home against Duke for the ACC championship. That's pressure.

For us: At Carolina for the ACC championship, possible #1 seed in the NCAAs on the line (may be lost if we don't win the tooney). That's pressure too.

Look for an ultra-high intensity game; could be a classic (aren't they all?).

[Rogue]

I'd say about even.

For them: senior day at home against Duke for the ACC championship. That's pressure.

For us: At Carolina for the ACC championship, possible #1 seed in the NCAAs on the line (may be lost if we don't win the tooney). That's pressure too.

Look for an ultra-high intensity game; could be a classic (aren't they all?).



This was my thinking as well. For the holes, its senior night. We know that's pressure.. They have home court advantage. More pressure.
We are the better team and never want to lose because we're always favored this year.

It's unc-ch, it just brings that little extra pressure because bragging rights are on the line ( only for a couple of days for who ever wins, since all talk next week will be on the tourney, the one 'ole roy doesn't like )

[jipops]

In Cameron we were on the verge of being humiliated after the 1st half. Thanks to Curry's shooting which I believe sparked our defense we caught up with them and with Nolan's experience we closed them out. My fear is that we could find ourselves in a similar hole tonight and not be able to dig ourselves out. I have said for the past few weeks that UNC is the best team in the ACC, at least they have been playing like it. I feel like the talent edge goes to them and there is a huge advantage for them in the front court. Sure, we have a great chance to win. I don't mean to knock our guys, I think we have a very good team. But I also think this is the type of game that could quickly get out of hand.

They have two advantages which are our two of our biggest weaknesses, point guard play and post play. Nolan is an obvious POY candidate but let's not mistake him for being an actual point guard. He facilitates the offense by looking for his shot. Many times this has been good for us, sometimes not. The best chance we have in this one is to hit a very high percentage of 3's and not get lost on defense in the post. Mason was routinely abused by Zeller last time out, we may need to think about double teaming there. Otherwise this could resemble the St John's game.

[dbd4ever]

What kind of defense is best suited for this game? Do we try a zone at some point to control the inside or do we stick with our staple man defense the entire contest? Will we see full court pressure to try and slow down Marshall?

Will Roy start the seniors along with Knox as a tradition on senior night? He said that he had not decided about the other seniors starting along with Knox.

There was an article on ESPN.com Friday with a Dexter Stricken interview and he predicted a Carolina victory two or three times during the conversation.

Here's to a good game and by that I mean a Duke victory! Go Duke!

[Bob Green]

For them: senior day at home against Duke for the ACC championship.

For us: At Carolina for the ACC championship,

This game is not for the ACC Championship. The tournament winner is the ACC Champion. The winner of tonight's game earns the #1 Seed in the ACCT.

[dukelifer]

I have said for the past few weeks that UNC is the best team in the ACC, at least they have been playing like it.

I agree that UNC has tons of talent that is coming together but how have they been playing like it the last few weeks? Since losing to Duke, they beat Clemson by 2, BC by 2 and Fla State by 2. All those game could have gone the other way. The biggest margin of victory in other games was 14 over Wake. Other than the loss against VT, Duke has beaten everyone since UNC by double digits. If anything UNC played better before the Duke loss than after- although not by much.

[NashvilleDevil]

Are you sure that wasn't Verne Lundquist with Kellogg? I didn't think Nantz did too many regular season games especially when the NFL was still going on.

You are absolutely right. Cannot believe that I overlooked Verne announcing during the regular season.

[dukelifer]

This was my thinking as well. For the holes, its senior night. We know that's pressure.. They have home court advantage. More pressure.
We are the better team and never want to lose because we're always favored this year.

It's unc-ch, it just brings that little extra pressure because bragging rights are on the line ( only for a couple of days for who ever wins, since all talk next week will be on the tourney, the one 'ole roy doesn't like )

Senior night for Justin Knox, Van Hatchell and Daniel Bolick (not even sure about Knox). Those guys being nervous will have zero impact on the game. Senior night is no pressure in this game.

[Kedsy]

I don't mean to knock our guys

I'd hate to read your post if you were trying to knock our guys.

Duke is a better team than UNC, by any objective measure (e.g., Sagarin, Pomeroy, RPI). That doesn't guarantee a win, of course. We may win, we may lose, who can say? But why do you think UNC is playing like the best team in the ACC?

Here are their 6 games since we beat them at Cameron:

2 point win @Clemson;

14 point win at home against a Wake team they should have beaten by 30 (Duke beat Wake by 24 @Wake this season);

2 point win at home against BC (Duke beat BC at home by 16);

12 point win @NCSU (Duke won @NCSU by 14);

11 point win at home against Maryland (Duke beat Maryland at home by 17);

2 point win @FSU, with FSU's best player injured (Duke lost by 5 @FSU, but Singleton played, which makes a huuuuuge difference).

If you want to say UNC has learned how to win close games, I'll grant you that (5 ACC wins by 3 points or less, plus a 6 point win over UVa), but looking at the above scores doesn't inspire me to think we're running into some UNC juggernaut. They could very easily be 3-4 in their last 7, including their loss to Duke. If Jackson's shot goes in for BC and Barnes's shot doesn't against FSU, would you still say UNC is playing the best ball in the league? Does one shot rimming out and the other not really tell us anything about how well (or not) the team is playing? I honestly don't understand your attitude about this.

[NashvilleDevil]

I have said for the past few weeks that UNC is the best team in the ACC, at least they have been playing like it.

The best team in the ACC would not have needed a last second three pointer to beat Florida St. playing without it's best player. They are a very good team with a lot of talent but if they are the best team and playing like the best team they would be beating teams by more than 2-4 points. Until they beat Duke then Duke is the best team in the ACC.

[oldnavy]

I think a couple of things factor into the line of thinking that UNC is playing the best ball in the ACC.

First is that compared to last year and their slow start this year, they do seem to be playing very well.

Second, the ACC is weak this year and UNC is a good team and they are winning games that they would have lost last year. I think that this alone gives fans a sense of mildly inflated confidence.

Their only really good win was against UK which is not a very good team either, especially on the road.

Duke is not playing exceptional ball right now. We struggle at times on offense and have some break downs on interior defense. Some may say that our best win has been against UNC, and maybe it was...

I am not overwhelmed by UNC's play this year, they are a good team that has talent, but they are by no means an overpowering team like their 09 team.

I predict (and wagered a 6 pack of soda) that Duke will win tonight by at least 6 points. Having said that I also would not be shocked to lose either, this is a Duke UNC game btw and ANYTHING can and has happened!!

[oldnavy]

Got misdirected on a google search to see if I could find out who is calling the game tonight (refs), and noticed they are already whining that K will have his Svengali like influence over the stripes...

Anyone know who the refs are that are assigned to the game. Not that I think it makes much difference, but it could depend on how tight they call it. UNC has less depth and would be hurt by a tightly called game assuming it is called tight both ways, while Duke would benefit because I think we are more physical...

[1 24 90]

Got misdirected on a google search to see if I could find out who is calling the game tonight (refs), and noticed they are already whining that K will have his Svengali like influence over the stripes...

Anyone know who the refs are that are assigned to the game. Not that I think it makes much difference, but it could depend on how tight they call it. UNC has less depth and would be hurt by a tightly called game assuming it is called tight both ways, while Duke would benefit because I think we are more physical...

I don't know how to find out but John Cahill & Jamie Luckey are doing the Pitt/Nova game right now so I would guess they won't be there.

[ChicagoHeel]

I'd hate to read your post if you were trying to knock our guys.

Duke is a better team than UNC, by any objective measure (e.g., Sagarin, Pomeroy, RPI). That doesn't guarantee a win, of course. We may win, we may lose, who can say? But why do you think UNC is playing like the best team in the ACC?

Here are their 6 games since we beat them at Cameron:

2 point win @Clemson;

14 point win at home against a Wake team they should have beaten by 30 (Duke beat Wake by 24 @Wake this season);

2 point win at home against BC (Duke beat BC at home by 16);

12 point win @NCSU (Duke won @NCSU by 14);

11 point win at home against Maryland (Duke beat Maryland at home by 17);

2 point win @FSU, with FSU's best player injured (Duke lost by 5 @FSU, but Singleton played, which makes a huuuuuge difference).

If you want to say UNC has learned how to win close games, I'll grant you that (5 ACC wins by 3 points or less, plus a 6 point win over UVa), but looking at the above scores doesn't inspire me to think we're running into some UNC juggernaut. They could very easily be 3-4 in their last 7, including their loss to Duke. If Jackson's shot goes in for BC and Barnes's shot doesn't against FSU, would you still say UNC is playing the best ball in the league? Does one shot rimming out and the other not really tell us anything about how well (or not) the team is playing? I honestly don't understand your attitude about this.

I think it is safe to say that neither team is coming in to this game surging. We both have great records since the last meeting, but have shown weaknesses. I think we had more momentum going into the first meeting. UNC has displayed the same problem many on this board indicate as an issue with Duke- we have not played a solid 40 minutes. In most of the the games listed above we had a more comfortable margin and then lost concentration and the opponent took advantage.

Although the margins of victory in most our games have been small, a couple of them were quality wins. Beating Clemson on the road right after the tough Duke loss was huge. And I would not discount the FSU win. Yes, Singleton was out, but it was senior night and FSU seems to have rallied well since he went down.

[Olympic Fan]

I would not discount the FSU win. Yes, Singleton was out, but it was senior night and FSU seems to have rallied well since he went down.

I'm not sure about the last part of that.

Since Singleton was lost (during what turned out to be a seven-point home court victory over Virginia), FSU is 2-2 with an easy win at Wake, a 16-point loss at Maryland, a six-point win at home over Miami and the loss to UNC.

Is that enough to say they've "rallied well"?

[Kedsy]

Although the margins of victory in most our games have been small, a couple of them were quality wins. Beating Clemson on the road right after the tough Duke loss was huge. And I would not discount the FSU win. Yes, Singleton was out, but it was senior night and FSU seems to have rallied well since he went down.

I was not trying to discount anything (except maybe the relatively poor performance in the UNC/Wake game). My point was that UNC has been winning but it's not like they've turned into the Celtics or anything.

[superdave]

I think it is safe to say that neither team is coming in to this game surging. We both have great records since the last meeting, but have shown weaknesses. I think we had more momentum going into the first meeting. UNC has displayed the same problem many on this board indicate as an issue with Duke- we have not played a solid 40 minutes. In most of the the games listed above we had a more comfortable margin and then lost concentration and the opponent took advantage.

Although the margins of victory in most our games have been small, a couple of them were quality wins. Beating Clemson on the road right after the tough Duke loss was huge. And I would not discount the FSU win. Yes, Singleton was out, but it was senior night and FSU seems to have rallied well since he went down.

It's hard to say how well Unc is playing right now. First of all, a win is a win and they've won 7 straight I think. But the competition has been good, not great. I'm not sure Unc can beat anyone better than them, but they are winning vs. teams they should beat. I think Carolina fans probably feel pretty good, but are not sure if good turns into really good with this bunch this year. They can do it, but have not reached really good status this season (ie beat top 10 team, advance past Sweet 16 would be really good wins).

[rocketeli]

Actually your tagline says "Carolina must be destroyed" in Latin. Can't argue with that!


There is pressure on the Holes to win this game. They are at home, working for an outright crown in the ACC and the #1 seed in the ACC tourney, and looking to move up in the national rankings and restore the program to glory after we PASTED them last year in Derm by 32 points to be precise. Plus, they're down another player and thinner as a result.

GO DUKE! THROTTLE UP!!!!!

dukestheheat.

Duke>the holes. Plus my Latin signature line, 'Carolina is DEAD', wasn't written for nuthin' baby.

[Kedsy]

First of all, a win is a win and they've won 7 straight I think.

Six straight. I, for one, am hoping their winning streak does not get to 7.

[Vincetaylor]

UNC's conference schedule has definitely been easier than Duke's. There is no denying that. I'm fairly confident UNC would have lost at Virginia Tech and at FSU w/Singleton. Still, they win tonight and they deserve the regular season championship. A rubber match in the ACC tournament would really decide the true champ this year though.

[ChicagoHeel]

UNC's conference schedule has definitely been easier than Duke's. There is no denying that. I'm fairly confident UNC would have lost at Virginia Tech and at FSU w/Singleton. Still, they win tonight and they deserve the regular season championship. A rubber match in the ACC tournament would really decide the true champ this year though.

Not that it matters since we all seem to agree that the Heels are a very good team, but certainly beatable, but our ACC schedules were about the same in terms of difficulty. We both played a 9-7 team on the road (Clemson for us, VaTech for you) and we had BC (8-7) away while you had MD (7-9). The only advantage was our timing in terms of the FSU road game, which was definitely a plus for us, but again playing them on senior night was not easy.

[lotusland]

Anyone have link for online viewing?

[Les Grossman]

but has anyone mentioned yet that Carolina sux?

[Crisker]

Does Kelly realize he is 6'11"? Does he ever go inside?

[WVDUKEFAN]

Good defense so far. Too bad Plumlee got two quick fouls

[House G]

I guess CBS doesn't show replays.

[DukeBlueHeart4]

Anyone know where I can watch the game online?

[Les Grossman]

His stroke is pure; and he's set up beautifully. Usually short; except when he's long

[SCMatt33]

Does Kelly realize he is 6'11"? Does he ever go inside?

I don't even care if he goes inside, but he can't hog shots from the outside, even if he is open. He's a good stretch guy, but no matter how wide open he is, he shouldn't be taking the first shot from 3 on our first three possessions. If he doesn't settle down, it could be a long half with Mason on the bench.

[NYBri]

Can someone else take a shot?

[g-money]

three missed threes + getting burned by Zeller for a dunk = a tough start for Kelly

[Gthoma2a]

three missed threes + getting burned by Zeller for a dunk = a tough start for Kelly

Then burned by Barnes for a 3.

[bundabergdevil]

I found a decent feed on justin tv. Not necessarily enjoying what i'm seeing so far though...

[Les Grossman]

thankfully

[WVDUKEFAN]

Kyrie is in a sweat suit. Didn't expect him to be dressed, but you can hope.....

[NYBri]

Sigh.

[NYBri]

For 3

[Les Grossman]

although I prefer blowouts when Duke is playing

[pfrduke]

Who was saying Nolan never drops it off when he drives? Because that pass to Miles was a thing of beauty.

[pfrduke]

Then burned by Barnes for a 3.

As far as I'm concerned, Barnes can shoot all the stepback fadeaway 3s he wants to this game. If they beat us doing that, so be it, but that's not a quality shot. That one's not on Ryan.

[turnandburn55]

I'm starting to think Tar Heel fans are beginning to hate Seth Curry.

....And that's just fine with me :)

[SCMatt33]

I think we've done a good job settling down. For the most part, we're taking better shots, even if we miss a few, and defending better. They've hit a few contested jumpers recently, and a few tip ins are going to happen with their side. If we can keep the status quo from the 16-12 minute segment, we'll be in good shape.

[Gthoma2a]

As far as I'm concerned, Barnes can shoot all the stepback fadeaway 3s he wants to this game. If they beat us doing that, so be it, but that's not a quality shot. That one's not on Ryan.

I agree, but I was speaking of the space Barnes got on the crossover from just before it.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Our 3's (other than Curry) just aren't falling tonight.

[Les Grossman]

and Kelly is stone cold

[SCMatt33]

Anyone know the cure for being three steps slower than the other team?

[turnandburn55]

Was I the only one yelling "NOOOO" when Kelly took that shot?

[Les Grossman]

get rebounds; stop shooting

[Gthoma2a]

I can't believe that getting hit in the face is not a foul... Singler gets hit and no problem to the refs.

[AlaskanAssassin]

and Kelly is stone cold

which is unfortunate, because he's been wide open. I mean, he is capable of hitting them down, so what do you want him to do? pass up a wide open shot? tough tough

[Les Grossman]

Please take Kelly's shots

[NYBri]

Friction' shot

[Les Grossman]

has Duke taken any shots inside yet?

[turnandburn55]

Please take Kelly's shots

Or Seth.... he's bringing his game tonight.

[Les Grossman]

is the story so far

[Gthoma2a]

is the story so far

We can't stop penetration well enough so far, from what I can see.

[Devilsfan]

Our bigs are killing us.

[Vincetaylor]

Kelly should not play anymore this game. Awful, awful game.

[AlaskanAssassin]

let's pound it inside against henson to pick up his third foul! lets goooooo!

[Lulu]

What the holy h*ll is up with these weird calls and non-calls? I already lost count. We've got Singler blatantly hit in the face (no call), the travel on Miles where he actually didn't appear to move his feet before his dribble, the call on Miles that was orginally announced as Kelly, then as Nolan (still don't know what happened there), Mason's 2nd foul, and then about 4-5 times when bodies are hitting the floor hard with no call either way...

Plus, I reallly want to see a call for pushing or blocking after we make a basket, or as the ball is going in. That appears to be their primary means of generating a break opportunity.

? The kicked ball that hit the back of Singler's foot while he was facing away (I thought a kick was supposed to at least have the appearance of being possibly intentional, else the foot is part of the floor). I'm not sure if this gave any benefit regarding the clock reset or not, but still not the right call.

[Devilsfan]

Oh come on. If The Bros were better he would have never got his chance. Let's not call out one of our over avchievers.

[turnandburn55]

Kelly should not play anymore this game. Awful, awful game.

Kelly is definitely having a poor game. That being said, I think this sort of game is the time K tells him to chill out, he's an integral part of the offense... but he's 6'11", and needs to play like it.

[NYBri]

End of story.

[El_Diablo]

Kelly should not play anymore this game. Awful, awful game.

But then we'd be stuck with the Plumlees...

[Les Grossman]

story of the half

[Les Grossman]

carolina hits
killer

[turnandburn55]

But then we'd be stuck with the Plumlees...

Miles is playing quite well. Mason has been in some foul trouble.

....... And ANOTHER 3 point shot early in the shot clock by Kelly. Out of a timeout. Are you F'ing kidding me??!?!?!?

[NYBri]

This is awful...and we aren't coming back from 14 in Chapel Hill.

[Gthoma2a]

How are we letting Slow-foot beat us off the dribble. Why is Kelly still shooting? These are questions that are haunting me right now!

[SCMatt33]

Barnes finally misses one, and they get an offensive rebound and a 3. WTF

[Les Grossman]

50 pts in one half

[Oriole Way]

I can't believe K continues to throw Kelly out there to kill us.

It was going to be tough to win this game as it is, but I don't understand the love for Kelly by K in this game. He's going to be a great player, but he's way too inconsistent against talented competition. The way K has been going to him, you'd think Kelly was an all-conference senior. This game isn't an ideal matchup for Ryan. Bench him already.

[Les Grossman]

gets you a first or second round exit

[Gthoma2a]

50 pts in one half

Our D is not sufficient for a team that wants to make it far in the tournament, much less a true away game. We have got to prove that this was a fluke.

[Devilsfan]

We're really playing great D holding them to under 60% shooting. Plus we held them to 50+ pts in 20 mins.

[SCMatt33]

50 pts in one half

Not that our defense has been anything to write home about, but when they make that many stupid step back off the dribble fade away jump shots for a team that normally doesn't make many jumpers period, you're going to give up a big number.

[dcdrumsinc]

Carolina is the better team...no joke

[turnandburn55]

Not that our defense has been anything to write home about, but when they make that many stupid step back off the dribble fade away jump shots for a team that normally doesn't make many jumpers period, you're going to give up a big number.

Agreed. The easy transition points are irritating, but the random outside makes as just bizarre.

[cspan37421]

If you think coach K is throwing kelly out there to kill us, find another team to root for.

Transition defense needs to pick it up - correction. SHOW UP. Also, when our guys get hacked it'd be nice to get the call half the time. Seeing Singler getting hit in the face with a no call, that tells you something about the zebra's visual acuity.

[Les Grossman]

but for the love of Mike, the D is embarrassing

[SCMatt33]

If you think coach K is throwing kelly out there to kill us, find another team to root for.

Transition defense needs to pick it up - correction. SHOW UP. Also, when our guys get hacked it'd be nice to get the call half the time. Seeing Singler getting hit in the face with a no call, that tells you something about the zebra's visual acuity.

I'm sorry, but do you really think the refs are why we're losing this game.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Have we played an uglier half of basketball all year?? Defense started out pretty good, but fell apart; we got beat up and down the floor; can't hit any jump shots; Carolina can't miss.... Let's go Devils!!! Bring it back!!

[NYBri]

We aren't going past the second round with defense like this.

[Devilsfan]

What ever happened to Duke's D. It looks like an AAU game out there.

[burns15]

If you think coach K is throwing kelly out there to kill us, find another team to root for.

Transition defense needs to pick it up - correction. SHOW UP. Also, when our guys get hacked it'd be nice to get the call half the time. Seeing Singler getting hit in the face with a no call, that tells you something about the zebra's visual acuity.

the fact that a team with two All-American seniors can't bring enough intensity to play defense in the biggest game of the year.... its just flat out horrifying

[kaufmjo]

Too many threes from duke. Same old story

Huge not to have kyrie in this type of game....

[CLW]

Defense was awful combined with better than normal shooting by Carolina = nightmare of 1st half.

Carolina's bigs OWNED Plumlee, Plumlee and Kelly.

keys to second half:

#1 turn up the defensive intensity/heart by about 1 million notches

#2 does carolina keep hitting ridiculous shots anyway

[indakut]

I believe unc will cool off in the 2nd half. We've got to get inside and the D needs to makes some stops.

[cspan37421]

I'm sorry, but do you really think the refs are why we're losing this game.

No, there are about 3 bigger factors, the biggest being our transition defense, then our interior defense, then our outside shooting (or lack thereof).

Notice that Nolan is NOT getting to the rack.

[g-money]

It's hard to complain about the refs too much when we have a healthy free throw differential...this one is completely on our defense (or lack thereof). We're giving Carolina way too many wide open looks, which basically boils down to a lack of communication on our part.

[Gthoma2a]

I really hope K can figure something out at halftime. Right now, I don't know that we have the personnel to do it, but if anybody can find a way, K can. I don't even want to talk about my feelings on how different the ceiling is from the beginning of the year.

[dcdrumsinc]

I think as much as we can gripe about the transition D, a lot of it has to do with the fact that simply, duke is not athletic and carolina is superior in quickness, footspeed, and athleticism. they are a matchup problem for duke. dont expect seth and nolan to bail us out again by themselves. kyle singler better come up like the pre season all american he is supposed to be and bring it. this game can def be salvaged and won by us. i have strong faith coach k will make the best half time adjustments to compensate for our lack of speed

[moonpie23]

another klunky start....no rhythm....seth keeping us in this game...

unc is starting off just like they did in durham.......hope they run out of gas the same way...


2 halves to play folks.....2 halves to play......

[Chris Randolph]

Have we played an uglier half of basketball all year?? Defense started out pretty good, but fell apart; we got beat up and down the floor; can't hit any jump shots; Carolina can't miss.... Let's go Devils!!! Bring it back!!

Yep, St. Johns

Surely unc won't shoot this way in the 2nd half. Ryan Kelly is killing us, they are playing 5 on 4 defense cuz he can't hit an open shot.

Barnes/Marshall playing like the championship seniors. Outplaying Smith/Singler, ridiculous.

Its not over as we know Duke is better in the 2nd half, but the fat lady is out of makeup and making her way to the stage

[TheDuckStore]

Have we played an uglier half of basketball all year?? Defense started out pretty good, but fell apart; we got beat up and down the floor; can't hit any jump shots; Carolina can't miss.... Let's go Devils!!! Bring it back!!

Duke v. Carolina I

[cspan37421]

BTW, I almost never think we got jobbed (1999 title game, yes, I do). But the guy got hit in the face, and it wasn't on a high speed hard to tell it happened kind of play. The second on Mason looked like BS to me, as well.

[ncexnyc]

1. Where's the defense?
2. Why is Kelly still on the court?
3. Why isn't Curry being fed more?

[TheRob8801]

I'm sorry, but do you really think the refs are why we're losing this game.

This game doesn't look much different than every other game Duke has played this year.

We know our defense is slow and we know we have issues when we don't make 3's.

The biggest factor in this game is that Carolina is shooting 58% percent. If they only shoot 38% it's a tie game.

The refs aren't necessarily calling things Carolina's way, but they sure aren't calling this game well.

That being said, this isn't an insurmountable lead, especially against this team. Odds are Carolina's shooting percentage goes down and Duke's 3pt percentage goes up. If the law of averages plays out that gets us back in it.

[ncexnyc]

BTW, I almost never think we got jobbed (1999 title game, yes, I do). But the guy got hit in the face, and it wasn't on a high speed hard to tell it happened kind of play. The second on Mason looked like BS to me, as well.

Yes, there have been a couple of iffy calls, but my god, not 50 pts worth.

[ChicagoHeel]

Don't worry about kelly's bad shooting. Strickland is doing his best to make up for it jacking up horrible jump shot after another.

If you come back and beat us from a double digit deficit twice in the same year, I will not make it.

I hate Curry.