This Week in the ACC: 2/28-3/6

[pfrduke]

And all of a sudden it's the last week of regular season. Last week's post asked if anyone other than Duke and UNC actually wanted to make the tournament, and Virginia Tech (emphatically) and Clemson (much, much less emphatically) stood up and said yes. (FSU and Maryland, for their parts, said "well, kind of, if it's not too much trouble and if we don't have to beat anyone that good"). In the standings, one of Duke or UNC is guaranteed first. FSU has an outside shot at second - they'll hold tiebreakers with either Duke or UNC if they end up tied at 12-4. By the same token, their first-round bye is not yet guaranteed - Clemson would hold the tiebreaker if both teams end up 10-6. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome is that Duke and UNC will be 1-2 (in some order), FSU will be 3, and Virginia Tech 4.

At the other end of the standings, Wake is firmly entrenched in the 12th position - even if, by some miracle, they tied GT at 3-13, Tech would hold the tiebreaker by virtue of their win over UNC. Tech, for its part, looks well-settled in 11th, and then there's still a lot of jockeying to be done both in the 8-10 spots and the 6-7 spots (and it's even possible, but very unlikely, that someone in the 8-10 group will jump up to the 6-7 range). All of which is to say that even with just one week to go, there's still a lot of basketball to be played.

Monday is dark.

Tuesday starts to work out some of the 8-10 mess, as two 5-9 teams square off in Charlottesville when the Pack play a visit to the Cavaliers. This is the first matchup this season between the teams.* The other Tuesday action is also in Virginia, with Boston College traveling to Blacksburg to take on a surging Hokies team. With a win, the Hokies would join Duke, UNC, and FSU as the only teams to win three in a row in conference play. Unsurprisingly, those 4 are at the top of the standings. BC is still clinging to hope, and with a win over Virginia Tech, a 9-7 conference season (and a three game winning streak of their own) is all but guaranteed.

[119]Virginia hosts [78]NC State
[30]Virginia Tech hosts [64]Boston College

Wednesday starts off in Florida, with the Heels traveling to Tallahassee and the Terps traveling to Miami. In the former, FSU looks to avenge a 20-point loss that remains - by a large margin - the single worst defensive performance of the season from an excellent defensive team. The absence of Chris Singleton obviously makes this a taller task, but as we all know, the Noles are dangerous in Tallahassee. Maryland's bubble chances may have slipped away with Sunday night's loss, but they're not completely gone - two wins this week give them 20 on the season, with 9 in conference, and a chance to make some noise in the ACCT. And then we head to Durham for the final game in Cameron for Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. Plenty will be written elsewhere about this game, but I wanted to point two things out - first, Nolan and Kyle haven't lost in Cameron since February 11, 2009; second, they've never lost to anyone other than Carolina in Cameron over their entire careers. They're taking a 64-2 home record into Wednesday's contest. Clemson will desperately hope to change that result - indeed, whatever at large chances they have likely ride on this game.

[2]Duke hosts [36]Clemson
[62]Miami hosts [16]Maryland
[41]Florida State hosts [10]North Carolina

Thursday pits the 11th and 12th place team in the conference against one another. And that's really all there is to say about that.

[245]Wake Forests host [101]Georgia Tech**

Friday is dark.

Saturday has just three matchups, but all have big post-season implications. First, Virginia Tech travels to Clemson, where (depending on the results of Wednesday's game) the Tigers will look either to seize their own at large bid or spoil Virginia Tech's. When Delaney and Allen were freshmen, they lost a road game at Clemson by 1 on the last day of the regular season that went a long way toward keeping them out of the NCAAs - they won't want the same result again as seniors. Thanks to unbalanced scheduling, this is the first time this season these two will square off. At 2, Maryland hosts Virginia, hopefully looking for their 20th win on the season. The Cavs were embarrassed when the two teams played in C-ville. Finally, Saturday will tell us who finishes first in the conference. Wednesday's games are actually meaningless - no matter what happens during the week, the winner of Duke-UNC will win the regular season and get the ACCT 1-seed (and really, isn't that how it should be?). Carolina is still smarting from the Nolan Smith game, giving up a 14-point halftime lead in just over 10 minutes. But that's been their only hiccup since Kendall Marshall entered the starting lineup. The Dean Dome will be rabid (well, as rabid as that place gets).

[36]Clemson hosts [30]Virginia Tech
[16]Maryland hosts [119]Virginia
[10]North Carolina hosts [2]Duke

Sunday presents a much less entertaining slate, with 5 of the bottom 6 teams in action (and FSU). Starting at noon, BC hosts Wake Forest - the first time these teams have met this season. Then Miami travels to Georgia Tech (in what could be Paul Hewitt's last home game??) - the Canes won the contest in Coral Gables by just 2, but that was when Brian Oliver was still healthy. And finally, FSU travels to NC State (in what could be Sidney Lowe's last home game??) - the Noles won the first matchup by 13.

[64]Boston College hosts [245]Wake Forest
[101]Georgia Tech hosts [62]Miami
[78]NC State hosts [41]Florida State

*Of the 12 games this week, 5 are first-time matchups. I know unbalanced scheduling makes this sort of necessary, but there has to be a way to do that better - by this time in the season, you should have played all your conference opponents.

**This is, I believe, the first time in the history of the Pomeroy ratings that two 100+ ACC teams have squared off against one another. Pomeroy's rankings go back to 2003, in which time precisely 2 teams - Clemson in 2003 and Virginia in 2009 - have finished 100+. That's 2 out of 89. As we sit here today, 3 teams this season - a full quarter of the conference - are in the triple digits. Ugh.

[gw67]

pfr,

I want to thank you for the work you put into these ACC weekly threads. I used to go to the ACC site to get the games for that week but your posts are so much better. You list the games, the Pomeroy rating for each team and provide a brief but very good discussion for each day's games.

Thanks again for providing another value added piece for DBR readers who are not only Duke fans but are fans of the ACC as well.

By the way, I have confirmed that the Terps have played four games against Miami on their home court since the Canes joined the ACC, and they have lost all four games. It wouldn't surprise me if three teams wind up at 8-8 and then all the tiebreakers will come into play.

gw67

[ncexnyc]

This is the week that seals Sidney Lowe's fate.

Wednesday's game against Clemson is huge for us. Everyone needs to have a good game so they have some swagger going into the Dome for a winner takes all showdown.

[gw67]

Going into the final week, it appears that the final league standings may wind up with five different groupings: Very Top - Duke, UNC; Top - FSU, VT; Upper Middle - Clemson, BC, Md; Lower Middle - Miami, NCSU, UVA; and Bottom - GT and Wake.

Compare this with preseason picks by 62 media (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/102010aag.html)

1 Duke (61) 743
2 Virginia Tech 632
3 North Carolina (1) 622
4 NC State 526
5 Florida State 496
6 Maryland 432
7 Clemson 335
8 Miami 305
9 Georgia Tech 274
10 Boston College 173
11 Virginia 164
12 Wake Forest 134

The media did a surprisingly good job. The principal mistakes were figuring that NCSU would be very good (possibly a Carolina bias among those who attended media day), and switching GT and BC.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

Very good summary, but one small correction.

You are right that the winner of Duke-UNC Saturday will win the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament (no matter what happens in the two games Wednesday night). But it's not necessarily true that the winner will be the regular season champion.

The ACC does not use tiebreakers to determine the regular season title -- only for tourney seeding. So if either UNC or Duke were to lose Wednesday night, then win Saturday, both teams would share the regular season title at 13-3.

UNC wins the tiebreaker if they lose to FSU, then beat Duke (1-1 split head to head, then UNC wins on the basis of going 1-1 vs. FSU while Duke is 0-1). Duke wins the tiebreaker if they lose to Clemson then win at UNC (2-0 head-to-head vs. UNC).

But if either of those scenarios come true, then UNC and Duke are regular season co-champions.

Of course, no matter what happens this week, the official ACC championship will be decided next week in Greensboro.

[CDu]

Very good summary, but one small correction.

You are right that the winner of Duke-UNC Saturday will win the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament (no matter what happens in the two games Wednesday night). But it's not necessarily true that the winner will be the regular season champion.

Actually, it IS necessarily true that the winner will be the regular season champion. It just may not be the case that they are the only regular season champion.

[Bojangles4Eva]

Don't know if this is the right thread but apparently there are rumors that Bullock is out for the season with a knee injury. All links I've found go to a scout/IC forum, and there is one legit source about an MRI being done on WRAL.com, but it doesn't say anything about being out for the season. Does anyone have creditable info on this?

[Duvall]

Don't know if this is the right thread but apparently there are rumors that Bullock is out for the season with a knee injury. All links I've found go to a scout/IC forum, and there is one legit source about an MRI being done on WRAL.com, but it doesn't say anything about being out for the season. Does anyone have creditable info on this?

It's now official - Bullock is done for the season (http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/uncs-bullock-out-for-season-with-knee-injury).

Not sure how much this hurts UNC - Bullock was instrumental in Duke's comeback win in Cameron.

[Olympic Fan]

Amazing, I got the official announcement from UNC just as I was reading Bojangles' post -- Bullock is out for the season with a torn lateral meniscus in his left knee.

He was averaging 6.1 ppg. Not a huge loss, but it leaves UNC even thinner on the bench than they were.

[Bojangles4Eva]

So with this confirmed that leaves their scholarship reserves to be McDonald, Knox and Watts??? That doesn't leave a lot of bodies for Roy's typical up tempo offense, so does he adjust? I am kind of sad that with their depleted bench we will not see anymore 5 man subs should he get in a tight spot...

[ncexnyc]

Does anyone have a life jacket for Sidney? Preferably in red.

[ns7]

Virginia Tech is losing 30-14 at home to Boston College. Looks like Seth Greenberg enjoys life on the bubble.

[ncexnyc]

Virginia Tech is losing 30-14 at home to Boston College. Looks like Seth Greenberg enjoys life on the bubble.
I can't say I'm shocked. They are probably still feeling the effects from their big win Saturday night.

[gofurman]

These are the most inconsistent guys ever. Lose to UVA both times,, get up for Duke.. will BC ( 9 point underdog) get them and put a hurt on the NCAA chances. Perosonally, I kind of hope so.

Or should I (can't believe this) pull for VT as losing to BC would hurt Duke by making VT an even worse loss ???

[kinsman_bob]

These are the most inconsistent guys ever. Lose to UVA both times,, get up for Duke.. will BC ( 9 point underdog) get them and put a hurt on the NCAA chances. Perosonally, I kind of hope so.

Or should I (can't believe this) pull for VT as losing to BC would hurt Duke by making VT an even worse loss ???

Both VT and MD are like this. They get up for Duke and fold against lousy teams. Neither of them deserve to be in the tournament. It's like this every year.

[SMO]

Both VT and MD are like this. They get up for Duke and fold against lousy teams. Neither of them deserve to be in the tournament. It's like this every year.

Classic VPI. They are getting hammered on senior night after celebrating Saturday's win like it was a championship.

[devildeac]

Classic VPI. They are getting hammered on senior night after celebrating Saturday's win like it was a championship.

Stick 'em back on the bubble where they belong. Down by 18 with about 6 minutes to go. Sheesh!

[gofurman]

Stick 'em back on the bubble where they belong. Down by 18 with about 6 minutes to go. Sheesh!

what stands out is they are getting HAMMERED on teh boards by BC

[Son of Jarhead]

yuck! VT blew it.

[roywhite]

Uhh....Uncle Fester, Hokie Nation.....celebrated a little too much Saturday, didn't you?

Good programs don't have letdowns like you just did tonight.

[Olympic Fan]

yuck! VT blew it.

This loss doesn't put them outside the field, but it does put them in position to fall out of the field.

They finish the regular season Saturday at Clemson -- which as of tonight is Joe Lunardi's last team out -- No. 69 on his s-curve. They'll drop a little when they lose to Duke Wednesday night (but that won't hurt them much). Then they'll play VPI Saturday with the same passion and sense of urgency that VPI showed against Duke.

If VPI loses THAT one, I suspect they'll be out -- or at the very least, they'll enter the tournament needing a win or two to qualify.

BTW, Lunardi decided that this win puts BC in the field!

[devildeac]

Uhh....Uncle Fester, Hokie Nation.....celebrated a little too much Saturday, didn't you?

Good programs don't have letdowns like you just did tonight.

You put your left foot in.
You put your left foot out.
You put your left foot in.
And you shake it all about.
You do the Hokie-Chokie.
And you turn yourself around.
That's what (N)IT's all about.
:D

[Indoor66]

You put your left foot in.
You put your left foot out.
You put your left foot in.
And you shake it all about.
You do the Hokie-Chokie.
And you turn yourself around.
That's what (N)IT's all about.
:D

DD - the above seems a little insensitive from one who has "deac" in his name. :cool:

[Slackerb]

Was last night's loss to UVA the final nail in the coffin for El Sid?

[Olympic Fan]

Was last night's loss to UVA the final nail in the coffin for El Sid?

That coffin was already buried and in the hole ... it was merely another clump of dirt thrown on top.

[Channing]

VT must be a complete Jekyll and Hyde team. They get swept by UVA adn BC, and yet somehow manage to beat Duke. I get that Duke was a big game, but it wasn't even close against BC.

More importantly, has VT played there way right back onto the bubble? I am not sure why (perhaps it is because of his whining about Cameron), but I really don't like VT. I also don't like Delaney and I didn't like some of their older players. There fans' chant of "teabag Paulus" was also real classy.

So...I actually really hope that VT is left out of the tourney again. They have a regular season game left at Clemson. If they lose that game, and bow out early, I am hopeful they may still come up short.

[UrinalCake]

I am not sure why (perhaps it is because of his whining about Cameron), but I really don't like VT. I also don't like Delaney and I didn't like some of their older players. There fans' chant of "teabag Paulus" was also real classy.

It wasn't just the fans. Seth Greenberg himself mocked Paulus during a post-game press conference and referred to him being "teabagged." Classlessness starts at the top when it comes to VT.

As far as the VT loss, this is why I love college basketball. The same team can play drastically differently depending on their mindset and effort. It reminds you that they're human beings playing a game.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

VT must be a complete Jekyll and Hyde team. They get swept by UVA adn BC, and yet somehow manage to beat Duke. I get that Duke was a big game, but it wasn't even close against BC.

More importantly, has VT played there way right back onto the bubble? I am not sure why (perhaps it is because of his whining about Cameron), but I really don't like VT. I also don't like Delaney and I didn't like some of their older players. There fans' chant of "teabag Paulus" was also real classy.

So...I actually really hope that VT is left out of the tourney again. They have a regular season game left at Clemson. If they lose that game, and bow out early, I am hopeful they may still come up short.


Im glad too...I can't stand Virginia Tech and even moreso I hate TEAMS like VT. Get the job done at home like youre supposed to! It shouldn't take a team like Duke for you to play good basketball. I also could not stand how they acted like they had just won the national championship on Saturday. That irritated the heck out of me. Anyway, good riddance Hokies. I hope you just played your way straight into the NIT so I don't have to see Malcolm Delaney's streaky game anymore. Ugh.

[devildeac]

DD - the above seems a little insensitive from one who has "deac" in his name. :cool:

OK, change my screen name to devil****:p.

[gw67]

I wheeled in the second TV last night and watched parts of three games. The UNC-FSU game was a fun game to watch. I haven’t checked the stats but FSU played very well (shot well, protected the ball) and easily could have won the game. Barnes has probably played himself into the lottery in the past few weeks. The Duke-Clemson game was just the opposite. I had the sound turned off as my wife was watching “Top Chef” on the second TV but the game was sloppy and there appeared to be a bunch of fouls (both teams) that were not called. That was not one of Duke’s better efforts. There are separate threads for both games so I’ll limit my comments to the above.

The third game was Maryland-Miami. The Terps played perhaps their worst game this year and finished 0-5 against the three former Big East teams (BC, VT and Miami). They also continued the losing streak of five losses at Miami (they have NOT won there). Based on last nights’ performance, it appears that the loss to UNC took all the energy from them and I give them a 50-50 chance of beating Virginia at home on Saturday. I also predict that they will lose in the first round of the ACCT and, if they accept the invite, in the first round of the NIT. Finishing the season in this manner would put considerable heat on Williams to do much better next year or be forced to retire (I believe that he is 66). Williams has not adjusted to the modern game either in recruiting (getting players who pass, shoot and are basketball savvy) or in the way the game is played (emphasis on jump shooting). The lack of set player rotations 30 games into the season is embarrassing and probably very confusing to the players. Unlike previous seasons, the team reached a plateau and their play is now spiraling downward.

Miami has not played well this year; however, I liked the team they put on the floor last night and nearly all return next year. Grant and Scott are a nice backcourt, Johnson is a horse in the middle who has some skills and appears to be very competitive, Adams and Brown are nice complimentary players and Jones and Gamble come off the bench. I could see them being a much better team next year.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

Finishing the season in this manner would put considerable heat on Williams to do much better next year or be forced to retire (I believe that he is 66). Williams has not adjusted to the modern game either in recruiting (getting players who pass, shoot and are basketball savvy) or in the way the game is played (emphasis on jump shooting). The lack of set player rotations 30 games into the season is embarrassing and probably very confusing to the players. Unlike previous seasons, the team reached a plateau and their play is now spiraling downward.

Miami has not played well this year; however, I liked the team they put on the floor last night and nearly all return next year. Grant and Scott are a nice backcourt, Johnson is a horse in the middle who has some skills and appears to be very competitive, Adams and Brown are nice complimentary players and Jones and Gamble come off the bench. I could see them being a much better team next year.

gw67

The question with Maryland's prospects is Jordan Williams' decision. If he returns to team with those two freshman guards -- Stoglin is emerging as a stud, but Howard has shown flashes too -- the Terps will be very good next season. But if he goes pro (and his nunbers are remarkably similar to OSU's Sullinger) ... I don't know -- another middle-of-the-pack finish in the offing.

I agree with everything you say about Miami and their prospects next season (although I've heard rumbles that Durand Scott might jump to the NBA). My other problem is that should have been so much better this year -- they essentially finished last season with the same core team that they've used this season (Scott and Grant in the backcourt; Johnson in the middle; Thomas, Adams, Jones on the wings ... the only loss was Dews and the only addition was Rion Brown).

The fact that they struggled so long to put it together this season is going to give me pause before I pick them too high next season (as will Scott's decision).

[gw67]

Olympic,

Williams is not ready for the 24-second game. He is not 6-10, doesn't jump well, and he has a limited offensive game. IMO, he cannot play center in the NBA and would have to learn to play power forward. He has made terrific strides this year and I expect that he would add some variety and a jump shot if he returns. He is a very good rebounder and inside player in the college game.

Having said that, it would not surprise me if he is lured by the money for the play-for-pay game. If he returns, the Terps have one All ACC player plus another potential All ACC player. The senior losses should be easily made up by a combination of this year's freshmen or next year's freshmen. Whether G. Williams can get the most out of a young team is another question.

Miami doesn't have a winning tradition and fan support. They do have some talent among the players returning. It is up to Haith to get them to step up.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

Olympic,

Williams is not ready for the 24-second game. He is not 6-10, doesn't jump well, and he has a limited offensive game. IMO, he cannot play center in the NBA and would have to learn to play power forward. He has made terrific strides this year and I expect that he would add some variety and a jump shot if he returns. He is a very good rebounder and inside player in the college game.

Having said that, it would not surprise me if he is lured by the money for the play-for-pay game. If he returns, the Terps have one All ACC player plus another potential All ACC player. The senior losses should be easily made up by a combination of this year's freshmen or next year's freshmen. Whether G. Williams can get the most out of a young team is another question.

Miami doesn't have a winning tradition and fan support. They do have some talent among the players returning. It is up to Haith to get them to step up.

gw67

GW67, you know as well as I do (and acknowledge in your second graph) that it's not about being ready to turn pro. Very few early entries are "ready". Kids are tempted by a number of measues -- some we can't project or understand. I know over the years that the Duke staff was surprised by a couple of guys who went -- Deng being the biggest shocker. They thought Dunleavy would return for his second year until they learned he would be the No. 3 guy taken in the draft. He couldn't turn that down.

On the other hand Jason Williams turned down the chance to be the No. 1 pick after 2001 ... and Kyle Singler's decision to return after winning a national title was a mild surprise (I was told by a staff member that he was 75-25 to go).

This offseason will be tough to figure. The potential NBA labor meltdown and the new CBA make everything iffy. It may get to the point where NOBODY comes out early. Or everybody may bolt.

Right now, the ACC underclassmen most in demand by the pros (in what I think is the order of their interest) are: (1) Kyrie Irving; (2) Harrison Barnes; (3) John Henson; (4) Mason Plumlee; (5) Iman Shumpert (pros love his size and strength); (6) Jordan Williams; (7) Chris Singleton; (8) Tyler Zeller (just saw an ESPN blurb projecting him as the third center in the draft). I'm also told that CJ Leslie is 100 percent gone, although he's not going to be a first rounder. Neither will Miami's Scott, but the rumor is that he's also planning on going.

It's going to be an interesting spring ... and fairly futile to try and rank the ACC next season until we know who stays and who goes.

[94duke]

I'm watching UVa @ MD, and the refs called a block/charge. By that, I mean that the ref under the basket called a block, and the ref up top called a charge. Neither ref would back down from their call, so they called both! :confused: How can it be both?! :confused: Can anyone explain this to me?
Thanks!

[devildeac]

I'm watching UVa @ MD, and the refs called a block/charge. By that, I mean that the ref under the basket called a block, and the ref up top called a charge. Neither ref would back down from their call, so they called both! :confused: How can it be both?! :confused: Can anyone explain this to me?
Thanks!

A suitable compromise would be a reach-in foul on Ryan Kelly:rolleyes:. Seriously, IDK.

[4decadedukie]

What a season, what a Saturday:
a) UMd falls to UVa
b) VPI is defeated by Clemson

Next week's ACC Tournamant should be unbelievably exciting, due to parity/uncertainity.