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RockyMtDevil
02-27-2011, 08:24 PM
Looks like Carolina is going to take MD to the woodshed tonight, and it appears they are playing the best basketball in the league. It will take a mighty performance on Sat. to beat them in hell...I look for them to win the league in a colossal upset. Nobody say this in December. Jiminyfreakinchristmas.

MChambers
02-27-2011, 08:26 PM
Looks like Carolina is going to take MD to the woodshed tonight, and it appears they are playing the best basketball in the league. It will take a mighty performance on Sat. to beat them in hell...I look for them to win the league in a colossal upset. Nobody say this in December. Jiminyfreakinchristmas.
Ye of little faith. They still have to beat us (and FSU and the Maryland game is far from over). I still think we win the regular season championship outright.

anon
02-27-2011, 08:28 PM
Looks like Carolina is going to take MD to the woodshed tonight, and it appears they are playing the best basketball in the league. It will take a mighty performance on Sat. to beat them in hell...I look for them to win the league in a colossal upset. Nobody say this in December. Jiminyfreakinchristmas.

Can you explain? A North Carolina win will put them at 12-2 in ACC play, same as Duke.

Newton_14
02-27-2011, 08:30 PM
Looks like Carolina is going to take MD to the woodshed tonight, and it appears they are playing the best basketball in the league. It will take a mighty performance on Sat. to beat them in hell...I look for them to win the league in a colossal upset. Nobody say this in December. Jiminyfreakinchristmas.

Actually, even if UNC wins tonight, Duke is still on top as we beat them head to head. Not sure I follow your logic on this one. If UNC wins tonight and beats FSU, and Duke beats Clemson, it will be winner take all next Saturday.

As for now, Duke is still in first place.

DukeDevilDeb
02-27-2011, 08:32 PM
Looks like Carolina is going to take MD to the woodshed tonight, and it appears they are playing the best basketball in the league. It will take a mighty performance on Sat. to beat them in hell...I look for them to win the league in a colossal upset. Nobody say this in December. Jiminyfreakinchristmas.

All subsequent posts suggest that what you say here is not correct. Why do you think this is true?

dukelifer
02-27-2011, 08:39 PM
Looks like Carolina is going to take MD to the woodshed tonight, and it appears they are playing the best basketball in the league. It will take a mighty performance on Sat. to beat them in hell...I look for them to win the league in a colossal upset. Nobody say this in December. Jiminyfreakinchristmas.

Best basketball in the league? Was that the best basketball last Saturday when they could not even crack 50 pts against BC at home? UNC is winning- we will give them that- but no team in the ACC is playing all that well. UNC may win out- but Duke has more than a fighter's chance.

Chris Randolph
02-27-2011, 08:49 PM
UNC will lose at FSU and then at home against us. We will win the league outright because we are the best team in the league, just as predicted at the outset of the season

SMO
02-27-2011, 09:00 PM
Can you explain? A North Carolina win will put them at 12-2 in ACC play, same as Duke.

C'mon. Don't rain on Chicken Little's parade by interjecting facts into this discussion.

ajgoodfella7
02-27-2011, 09:13 PM
If UNC and Duke would have the same record in ACC play at the end of the season, and if they split their head-to-head meetings, the next tiebreaker would be each's record against the 3rd place team. As of now, that team is FSU, which beat Duke in their only matchup.

If UNC were to lose to FSU they would likely be 12-3 in ACC play (assuming they win tonight) going into the Duke game.

If Duke beats Clemson they would be 13-2 in ACC play going into the UNC game.

In this scenario Duke would have to beat UNC to receive the #1 seed since if both teams were to finish 13-3, UNC would have the tiebreaker based on their 1 win versus FSU against Duke's 0 wins against FSU.

If VT were to end up passing FSU for 3rd place, UNC would still hold the tiebreaker because they beat VT in their only matchup.

Unless I am not understanding the tiebreaker rules.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html

cwaugh
02-27-2011, 09:18 PM
If UNC and Duke would have the same record in ACC play at the end of the season, and if they split their head-to-head meetings, the next tiebreaker would be each's record against the 3rd place team. As of now, that team is FSU, which beat Duke in their only matchup.

If UNC were to lose to FSU they would likely be 12-3 in ACC play (assuming they win tonight) going into the Duke game.

If Duke beats Clemson they would be 13-2 in ACC play going into the UNC game.

In this scenario Duke would have to beat UNC to receive the #1 seed since if both teams were to finish 13-3, UNC would have the tiebreaker based on their 1 win versus FSU against Duke's 0 wins against FSU.

If VT were to end up passing FSU for 3rd place, UNC would still hold the tiebreaker because they beat VT in their only matchup.

Unless I am not understanding the tiebreaker rules.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html

I don't think you understand your own logic :p

Newton_14
02-27-2011, 09:19 PM
If UNC and Duke would have the same record in ACC play at the end of the season, and if they split their head-to-head meetings, the next tiebreaker would be each's record against the 3rd place team. As of now, that team is FSU, which beat Duke in their only matchup.

If UNC were to lose to FSU they would likely be 12-3 in ACC play (assuming they win tonight) going into the Duke game.

If Duke beats Clemson they would be 13-2 in ACC play going into the UNC game.

In this scenario Duke would have to beat UNC to receive the #1 seed since if both teams were to finish 13-3, UNC would have the tiebreaker based on their 1 win versus FSU against Duke's 0 wins against FSU.

If VT were to end up passing FSU for 3rd place, UNC would still hold the tiebreaker because they beat VT in their only matchup.

Unless I am not understanding the tiebreaker rules.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html

All of that is correct. However, as of right now, if UNC wins tonight, Duke is still in first place due to our head to head win against UNC. I for one am not willing to concede that UNC is going to beat both FSU and Duke this coming week.

ajgoodfella7
02-27-2011, 09:20 PM
I don't think you understand your own logic :p

UNC has already beaten FSU once, maybe I didn't make that clear enough.

Troublemaker
02-27-2011, 09:21 PM
Nah, I think Duke beats Carolina on Saturday. UNC is not playing the best basketball in the league just because they're controlling a Maryland team that Duke already swept. That 48-46 stinkbomb against BC was just two games ago!

UNC is just lucky that they played VT at home and Duke played VT on the road.

I still like Duke to win the ACC.

Bob Green
02-27-2011, 09:21 PM
Ah, just what we need on the EK Forum, another stupid Carolina thread!

ajgoodfella7
02-27-2011, 09:21 PM
All of that is correct. However, as of right now, if UNC wins tonight, Duke is still in first place due to our head to head win against UNC. I for one am not willing to concede that UNC is going to beat both FSU and Duke this coming week.

Agreed, I think FSU will give UNC all they can handle. The bad thing is that Singleton will be sidelined which certainly doesn't help their chances.

sporthenry
02-27-2011, 09:26 PM
Winning the tie breaker for the #1 seed means little in terms of regular season champion. They would get to play who Va instead of BC. But it would be a split regular season championship exactly like last year.

Spy
02-27-2011, 09:31 PM
Get back to me if they ever shoot above 40%.

UrinalCake
02-27-2011, 09:33 PM
I'm following the gamecast of the UNC-UMD game and Carolina is KILLING them on the offensive glass. In one sequence they got SEVEN chances at the basket before finally laying it in. While the stat sheet shows a modest 18-13 edge on the offensive boards (with a couple minutes left to play) it seems like they are boarding every miss. Our bigs better come ready to play next weekend (and of course not take Clemson for granted either)

_Gary
02-27-2011, 09:40 PM
Well, I'm not going to let RockyDevil take a beating in this thread because I think what he has said isn't crazy at all. As a previous poster said, if UNC beats FSU (and we win at home this week), then it comes down to a winner take all on Saturday. Why most everyone here thinks that's going to be some kind of automatic win for Duke is beyond me. UNC will be favored in that game and they should be favored. It will take an incredible effort from our boys to come out of CH with a victory. I can appreciate analyzing a potential match-up with your heart instead of your head. We've all been there. And my heart certainly tells me Duke will pull it out. But I'd be lying if I said my head tells me the same thing.

The only thing I'd disagree with the original poster on is that this will be considered a huge upset. It will be nothing of the sort if we are judging everything based on play in January and February. Duke has not been the same team since Kyrie went down and anyone that disputes that needs to have their head examined. And as much as it pains me to say this, UNC is playing exceptionally well now that they've settled in on their primary players.

Overall, I think Duke is in about the same position as they were last year at this time (sans Kyrie). We are a pretty good team, but certainly not dominant and certainly vulnerable. We have a couple of fantastic seniors that I hope (fingers crossed) got their last poor games out of their system at VT. Yes, they both tallied great numbers in terms of overall scoring last night, but the last 10 minutes of that game were pretty tough to watch. Anyhow, what I'm saying is we can't afford that type of 2nd half again if we want to advance in tournaments come March.

I think we certainly have the pieces to go all the way and win another ACC and NCAA title. But our weaknesses are real and without Kyrie there is simply no way to correct all of them. Some just come down to not being able to replace the things Kyrie could do. We just don't have another player like him that could really break down a defense with penetration. And frankly, I also still believe he was our best perimeter defender. Yes, I know Nolan is extremely good on defense, but Kyrie could really lock down the smaller/quicker guards that liked to blow by those in front of them. On top of that, Kyrie was able to initiate fast breaks that led to easy baskets far easier than anyone else on this team. And trapping us with KI on the court? No way. But we are certainly susceptible to that now.

The bottom line is we are just what Coach K said we were when #1 went down: a good team but not a great team. With Kyrie we were a great team. Now the margin for error is much smaller and we'll have to have a similar run like last year's team did in order to cut down the nets.

rthomas
02-27-2011, 09:45 PM
uhh. we do play Clemson first.

gofurman
02-27-2011, 09:49 PM
Agreed, I think FSU will give UNC all they can handle. The bad thing is that Singleton will be sidelined which certainly doesn't help their chances.

FSU is irrelevant from an ACC standpoint.

Even if they lose to FSU, it still comes down to DUke game at Carolina. If we beat CLemson, they have 3 losses and we have 2. IF they beat us (at Carolina) we both then have 3 losses and they get the tiebreaker bc they split w us and they split w FSU and we lost to FSU. Is this right? Help me on this one -0 I think this is how it is figured.. if yo split head2head then you go down the list of ACC and that would be FSU where UNC would be better off.

So , no matter what , it all comes down to D at C on Saturday?

sandinmyshoes
02-27-2011, 09:51 PM
I am not going to press any panic buttons. They looked super good just before our first game and then came down with a terrible three point shooting slump.

But they do worry me. What worries me is that they are a young team that tends to lose focus and cohesion during stretches of the game. If they keep maturing and manage to maintain focus they could become scary good.

But that hasn't happend yet. So I'll worry about it, but I'm still confident.

uh_no
02-27-2011, 09:51 PM
FSU is irrelevant from an ACC standpoint.

Even if they lose to FSU, it still comes down to DUke game at Carolina. If we beat CLemson, they have 3 losses and we have 2. IF they beat us (at Carolina) we both then have 3 losses and they get the tiebreaker bc they split w us and they split w FSU and we lost to FSU. Is this right? Help me on this one -0 I think this is how it is figured.. if yo split head2head then you go down the list of ACC and that would be FSU where UNC would be better off.

So , no matter what , it all comes down to D at C on Saturday?


you are correct. All that the other games mean is whether we split or win outright

_Gary
02-27-2011, 09:52 PM
FSU is irrelevant from an ACC standpoint.

Even if they lose to FSU, it still comes down to DUke game at Carolina. If we beat CLemson, they have 3 losses and we have 2. IF they beat us (at Carolina) we both then have 3 losses and they get the tiebreaker bc they split w us and they split w FSU and we lost to FSU. Is this right? Help me on this one -0 I think this is how it is figured.. if yo split head2head then you go down the list of ACC and that would be FSU where UNC would be better off.

So , no matter what , it all comes down to D at C on Saturday?


I'm pretty sure that is correct. Looks like all the marbles will be at stake based on Saturday's game, and not necessarily be predicated on the two that will take place in the middle of this upcoming week for both teams.

CDu
02-27-2011, 09:54 PM
In terms of the #1 seed, it all comes down to the Duke/UNC game. Whoever wins that game (regardless of what happens in the Duke/Clemson game or the FSU/UNC game) gets the #1 seed. In terms of the regular season title, obviously the other two games matter. But basically, if we beat UNC, we get the #1 seed and we will at the very least share the ACC regular season honors.

DukieInBrasil
02-27-2011, 09:55 PM
the OP of this thread tried to make the same claim in another thread. Either RMD is a terrible fan or a troll. Either way, s/he has lost all credibility in my book.

Acymetric
02-27-2011, 09:55 PM
you are correct. All that the other games mean is whether we split or win outright

Well, the other outcome made possible by losing "the other game" is that we could lose the conference regular season instead of taking a share of it.

The Clemson game is so important for confidence, regular season standings, tournament seeding (both tournaments)...don't understand why people are acting like its an afterthought and the only thing that matters is Carolina.

uh_no
02-27-2011, 09:57 PM
Whoever wins that game (regardless of what happens in the Duke/Clemson game or the FSU/UNC game) gets the #1 seed. In terms of the regular season title, obviously the other two games matter. But basically, if we beat UNC, we get the #1 seed and we will at the very least share the ACC regular season honors.

You're backwards here. The regular season title will be decided soley by that game.

We can beat carolina and still not have the 1 seed if we were to lose to clemson. (because then we'd each have 3 losses and unc would have the tiebreak) If unc beats us, they have the 1 seed guaranteed.

El_Diablo
02-27-2011, 10:02 PM
We can beat carolina and still not have the 1 seed if we were to lose to clemson. (because then we'd each have 3 losses and unc would have the tiebreak) If unc beats us, they have the 1 seed guaranteed.

No, if we lose to Clemson but beat UNC, Duke would have the tiebraker (since we would be 2-0 head-to-head).

Acymetric
02-27-2011, 10:04 PM
In terms of the #1 seed, it all comes down to the Duke/UNC game. Whoever wins that game (regardless of what happens in the Duke/Clemson game or the FSU/UNC game) gets the #1 seed. In terms of the regular season title, obviously the other two games matter. But basically, if we beat UNC, we get the #1 seed and we will at the very least share the ACC regular season honors.

This isn't correct. Like I mentioned above, the Clemson game is huge for seeding. If we lose to Clemson and unc beats FSU, we would have 3 losses to unc's 2. If we go on to beat them we still get the #2 seed (we split with carolina, they have the tiebreaker with a sweep of FSU).

The only way to get a #1 with a Clemson loss is if unc loses to FSU and we go on to beat them at their place.

Edit: Diablo beat me to the punch on the details, oops

_Gary
02-27-2011, 10:04 PM
the OP of this thread tried to make the same claim in another thread. Either RMD is a terrible fan or a troll. Either way, s/he has lost all credibility in my book.

I can tell you for an absolute certainty that RMD is N-O-T a troll. You or I may disagree with what he says, but he's not saying it because he's anti-Duke.

ns7
02-27-2011, 10:06 PM
Right Duke is #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies in ACC play. In fact, the gap between Duke and #2 UNC is the greater than the gap between #2 UNC and #6 FSU. Don't let UNC's many one possession wins fool you. Duke is easily the best team in the ACC this season.

Team Oeff Deff Margin
Duke 1.10 0.91 +0.19
UNC 1.04 0.93 +0.11
Virginia Tech 1.08 0.99 +0.09
Clemson 1.04 0.96 +0.08
Maryland 1.05 1.01 +0.04
Florida State 0.98 0.94 +0.04
Boston College 1.06 1.09 -0.03
Miami 1.04 1.08 -0.04
NC State 1.04 1.10 -0.06
Georgia Tech 0.97 1.04 -0.07
Virginia 0.94 1.02 -0.08
Wake Forest 0.89 1.15 -0.26

uh_no
02-27-2011, 10:06 PM
No, if we lose to Clemson but beat UNC, Duke would have the tiebraker (since we would be 2-0 head-to-head).

You are correct. So in fact the games on wednesday are irrelevent...except if we win wednesday and carolina loses, then we get a share of the title regardless (the opposite is also true)

ajgoodfella7
02-27-2011, 10:07 PM
Well, the other outcome made possible by losing "the other game" is that we could lose the conference regular season instead of taking a share of it.

The Clemson game is so important for confidence, regular season standings, tournament seeding (both tournaments)...don't understand why people are acting like its an afterthought and the only thing that matters is Carolina.

Thank you for clarifying that because this was the actual reasoning behind my post. Because not only are we in a position to win the ACC regular season outright, we are also still in position to lose the ACC regular season outright. If Duke wins out, all other scenarios are, in fact, irrelevant. If not, they are very relevant.

CDu
02-27-2011, 10:07 PM
You're backwards here. The regular season title will be decided soley by that game.

We can beat carolina and still not have the 1 seed if we were to lose to clemson. (because then we'd each have 3 losses and unc would have the tiebreak) If unc beats us, they have the 1 seed guaranteed.

No, I'm right. You have it backwards.

If we beat Carolina, we're either tied at 13-3 or we win outright at 14-2. In either case, we're the #1 seed (because in that scenario, we'd have swept UNC).

If we lose to Carolina, we're either tied at 13-3 or we lose outright. In either case, UNC gets the #1 seed (because they'd tie us in the regular season and would have the tiebreaker against the next best team).

The regular season honor will depend both on what happens Saturday AND what happens during the week (because you can share regular season honors.

Acymetric
02-27-2011, 10:08 PM
You are correct. So in fact the games on wednesday are irrelevent...except if we win wednesday and carolina loses, then we get a share of the title regardless (the opposite is also true)

Well, that and we lose any shot at a #1 seed in the ACC tournament with a loss to Clemson.

CDu
02-27-2011, 10:09 PM
This isn't correct. Like I mentioned above, the Clemson game is huge for seeding. If we lose to Clemson and unc beats FSU, we would have 3 losses to unc's 2. If we go on to beat them we still get the #2 seed (we split with carolina, they have the tiebreaker with a sweep of FSU).

The only way to get a #1 with a Clemson loss is if unc loses to FSU and we go on to beat them at their place.

The tiebreaker only matters if we split the head-to-head. So if we lose to Clemson and beat UNC, we're the #1 seed (but share the regular season honors).

CDu
02-27-2011, 10:10 PM
Well, that and we lose any shot at a #1 seed in the ACC tournament with a loss to Clemson.

That's not correct. If we lose to Clemson and beat UNC, we get the #1 seed by virtue of sweeping UNC. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker. The record against other teams comes next. So in that scenario, we win on head-to-head.

Acymetric
02-27-2011, 10:11 PM
The tiebreaker only matters if we split the head-to-head. So if we lose to Clemson and beat UNC, we're the #1 seed (but share the regular season honors).

D'oh! Thanks for correcting me before I stated that as fact again haha...seems I'm having as much trouble mentally tracking the possibilities as anyone else...sorry folks! I wasn't even considering that by beating unc after losing to Clemson we'd have the head to head tiebreaker making our respective records against FSU irrelevant.

ChicagoHeel
02-27-2011, 10:12 PM
I am more concerned about the next game and would be if I were a Duke fan too. A week from now, we could easily be 12-4 and tied for third ( or alone in 4th, not sure). That would be a big disappointment given that we are currently in the driver's seat for finishing first. Same for you- you get caught looking ahead against Clemson and drop that one then you are really facing a grim situation. Funny how perilous 12-2 feels.

Kewlswim
02-27-2011, 10:14 PM
Hi,

Duke is NOT in second place at the moment, but in 1st place by itself. The Devils have already beaten UNC. Before worrying about UNC, let's both enjoy and worry about Senior Night this coming Wednesday. I am already a bit teary-eyed thinking about it. Nolan and Kyle (along with Casey) were great ambassadors for both the basketball program and the University as a whole.

I, for one, am not willing to count Duke out against either Clemson or UNC. Don't forget Tyler was injured early in the UNC contest and was not able to play. The kids know how to beat the Heels and they first need to take care of business against Clemson.

GO DUKE!

UrinalCake
02-27-2011, 10:17 PM
The Clemson game is so important for confidence, regular season standings, tournament seeding (both tournaments)...don't understand why people are acting like its an afterthought and the only thing that matters is Carolina.

Agree. Never mind that it's also Senior Day for two of the greatest to wear a Duke Uniform.

RockyMtDevil
02-27-2011, 10:20 PM
Yes, thank you everyone, I and everyone else knows Duke is still technically in first place in the league. However, we aren't playing the best basketball and if UNC holds serve as I believe they will since we do not have a third scorer then they will win the league on Saturday. This is what I am referring to. Since Larry the cancer Drew left, they've been playing winning ball. Sans Kyrie, we are not head and shoulders above them as we were in December or early January.

I just believe they will win out and win the league, and if anyone saw that coming in mid-January you are a liar.

dukelifer
02-27-2011, 10:20 PM
I am more concerned about the next game and would be if I were a Duke fan too. A week from now, we could easily be 12-4 and tied for third ( or alone in 4th, not sure). That would be a big disappointment given that we are currently in the driver's seat for finishing first. Same for you- you get caught looking ahead against Clemson and drop that one then you are really facing a grim situation. Funny how perilous 12-2 feels.

So you are assuming a UNC loss at Fla State?

_Gary
02-27-2011, 10:28 PM
Yes, thank you everyone, I and everyone else knows Duke is still technically in first place in the league. However, we aren't playing the best basketball and if UNC holds serve as I believe they will since we do not have a third scorer then they will win the league on Saturday. This is what I am referring to. Since Larry the cancer Drew left, they've been playing winning ball. Sans Kyrie, we are not head and shoulders above them as we were in December or early January.

I just believe they will win out and win the league, and if anyone saw that coming in mid-January you are a liar.


I'm not sure they will win out because FSU is going to give them all they want. I think we'll give them all they want as well, but it's really tough to beat another solid ACC team on their home floor. The good thing is we will have a chance to win the regular season title outright by beating them again. You can't ask for much more than that.

Go Duke!

ChicagoHeel
02-27-2011, 10:31 PM
So you are assuming a UNC loss at Fla State?

I expect that we will win, but recognize that a loss is a real possibility, even with Singleton out. We are a young team playing on the road against a good team with Duke on our horizon- I'm definitely concerned that we might play with less than full concentration and drop one.

OldPhiKap
02-27-2011, 10:37 PM
Hi,

Duke is NOT in second place at the moment, but in 1st place by itself. The Devils have already beaten UNC. Before worrying about UNC, let's both enjoy and worry about Senior Night this coming Wednesday. I am already a bit teary-eyed thinking about it. Nolan and Kyle (along with Casey) were great ambassadors for both the basketball program and the University as a whole.

I, for one, am not willing to count Duke out against either Clemson or UNC. Don't forget Tyler was injured early in the UNC contest and was not able to play. The kids know how to beat the Heels and they first need to take care of business against Clemson.

GO DUKE!

x 100.


Last stop for those who want to jump off the bandwagon.

GO DUKE!!!!!

dukelifer
02-27-2011, 10:43 PM
I expect that we will win, but recognize that a loss is a real possibility, even with Singleton out. We are a young team playing on the road against a good team with Duke on our horizon- I'm definitely concerned that we might play with less than full concentration and drop one.

You are also assuming Fla State can win on the road against State- something they have struggled to do all year. I think it is much less likely that Florida State can win out than Duke will lose three in a row.

Kedsy
02-28-2011, 12:12 AM
However, we aren't playing the best basketball and if UNC holds serve as I believe they will since we do not have a third scorer then they will win the league on Saturday. This is what I am referring to. Since Larry the cancer Drew left, they've been playing winning ball.

Well, since Drew left, UNC is 6-1, with zero wins over top 25 teams and two of the wins coming by a mere 2 points. In the same time frame, we are also 6-1, with two wins over top 25 teams and the only even moderately close win coming in our head to head victory over UNC. In what way are they playing better basketball than us?

uh_no
02-28-2011, 12:36 AM
Well, since Drew left, UNC is 6-1, with zero wins over top 25 teams and two of the wins coming by a mere 2 points. In the same time frame, we are also 6-1, with two wins over top 25 teams and the only even moderately close win coming in our head to head victory over UNC. In what way are they playing better basketball than us?

UNC's loss came to currently #1 duke....our loss came to bubble team VT.....

Kedsy
02-28-2011, 12:48 AM
UNC's loss came to currently #1 duke....our loss came to bubble team VT.....

Still, if someone wants to bother calculating each team's offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency during the period, I bet Duke would come out well ahead of UNC.

uh_no
02-28-2011, 12:51 AM
Still, if someone wants to bother calculating each team's offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency during the period, I bet Duke would come out well ahead of UNC.

Perhaps so, but if you're going to compare the wins of a team over a certain period, it makes sense to also compare the losses, especially when they tell a radically different story from the wins.

Kedsy
02-28-2011, 12:55 AM
Perhaps so, but if you're going to compare the wins of a team over a certain period, it makes sense to also compare the losses, especially when they tell a radically different story from the wins.

In most cases, I would agree, although if I had an overall rating that would be the best indicator for me, rather than an unscientific comparison of good/bad wins vs. good/bad losses. However, in this case, since the OP is comparing UNC to Duke and saying UNC has played better the last 7 games, the fact that we beat them head to head during that period should be a factor in our favor rather than the other way around.

Fact is, if BC's last three had gone in and one of Kyle's wide open threes had scored, we wouldn't even be having this discussion, and whether those shots went in or out has absolutely nothing to do with how the respective teams are playing.

UrinalCake
02-28-2011, 06:36 AM
Does anyone else think that UNC will be vulnerable in the ACC tournament? They only have three big guys, and Marshall has been playing over 35 minutes a game since taking the starting job. Fatigue will be an issue, as could foul trouble (though they appear to have been able to stay out of foul trouble, probably by not playing defense). Their freshmen have never played in the postseason and are, well, freshmen.

I guess you could say that we're equally as vulnerable as our big two play virtually the full 40 minutes every game, but we've proven that we can play pretty well for stretches without them (see Maryland, Miami).

brevity
02-28-2011, 07:05 AM
Yes, thank you everyone, I and everyone else knows Duke is still technically in first place in the league. However, we aren't playing the best basketball and if UNC holds serve as I believe they will since we do not have a third scorer then they will win the league on Saturday. This is what I am referring to. Since Larry the cancer Drew left, they've been playing winning ball. Sans Kyrie, we are not head and shoulders above them as we were in December or early January.

I just believe they will win out and win the league, and if anyone saw that coming in mid-January you are a liar.

In that case, I disagree with your ability to label a thread.

"Carolina Now Tops in ACC" strongly suggests that they top the conference standings, and not that they are playing the best ball. The fact that most of the responses have gone into tangents about head-to-head records, FSU, Clemson, and tiebreakers tells me that pretty much everyone interpreted the thread the same way.

Is Carolina playing the best ball? Maybe, maybe not. That might have been a thread worth exploring. But it's not the one you started.

Reilly
02-28-2011, 07:39 AM
... it makes sense to also compare the losses, especially when they tell a radically different story from the wins.

A 6-point loss on the road to an ACC team that will make the NCAAs and a 4-point loss on the road to an ACC team that will make the NCAAs are not radically different. Kenpom had VT ranked as the #30 team in all of college b'ball. Duke and UNC are top 3% teams this year and VT is top 10%. It's not like we lost to GT.

In a sport where nobody has gone undefeated for 35 years and counting, where Duke has all of three losses total this year (all on the road), where UNC has two road ACC losses as well ... I just don't see the radical difference in these two ACC road losses. Is Duke a radically different/better program than VT? Sure, Duke's in the stratosphere. But VT is a good team this year. And there are lots of ACC road losses every year by one good team to another. I wanted to find the conference game road records for everybody in the ACC this year but couldn't immediately. Anybody have that?

dukestheheat
02-28-2011, 08:02 AM
Nah, I think Duke beats Carolina on Saturday. UNC is not playing the best basketball in the league just because they're controlling a Maryland team that Duke already swept. That 48-46 stinkbomb against BC was just two games ago!

UNC is just lucky that they played VT at home and Duke played VT on the road.

I still like Duke to win the ACC.

I fully agree with your post; we're going to be even more prepared going into this week and based on history, we bounce nicely after a bad loss (which I think VT was....don't shoot me, it's just my opinion and you know what they say about opinions). K is the master at rejuvenating the team and there is no one I'd like more in there with them getting them ready to rebound! I'm excited to see what's going to go down this week, and I do see Duke winning the ACC outright and getting the #1 seed in the ACC tourney, at least.

dukestheheat.

weezie
02-28-2011, 08:05 AM
As if yesterday wasn't l-o-n-g enough, since Sat night, this thread is surely putting a downward spin on my Monday morning. Living in VA is going to be treat today as fellow employees file into work, ugh.

Let's bury that mess and march forward! Come on people, move towards the light!
LET'S GO DEVILS!!!!!

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-28-2011, 08:07 AM
Can somebody please change the thread title? Not only is it wrong but it's stinkingly offensive to have to look at every time I drop by.

Scheyer All Day
02-28-2011, 08:51 AM
Can you explain? A North Carolina win will put them at 12-2 in ACC play, same as Duke.

Actually, he is looking forward to Carolina BEATING us...He is saying that WHEN they do, which is ridiculous that are even thinking that, they will have a 2 losses in the ACC against our 3 losses. Thats what he is talking about

nocilla
02-28-2011, 10:26 AM
A glimpse of op(toe)mism;

Duke has won 2 of the last 3 and 8 of the last 12 meetings in Chapel Hill.

Just like the earlier game in Cameron where Duke seemed to be overly excited in the first half, UNC is likely to experience the same. But based on the Off and Def efficiency numbers Duke is better suited to prevent a comeback.

ns7
02-28-2011, 04:49 PM
Still, if someone wants to bother calculating each team's offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency during the period, I bet Duke would come out well ahead of UNC.

You're exactly right, it's almost the same as the difference for the entire ACC season.

Team Oeff Deff Margin
Duke 1.09 0.90 +0.19
UNC 1.04 0.93 +0.11

As a further point, this would project Duke to win 68-67 (in 69 possessions) this Saturday at Chapel Hill. Compare that to Pomeroy projecting Duke to win 75-74 (higher pace game).

sandinmyshoes
02-28-2011, 07:41 PM
Duke vs. UNC.

Numbers. :rolleyes:

I wonder what the numbers predicted in 95 at Cameron.

Or on the flipside, in 06 at Cameron.

We have every reason to be nervous, and every reason to be confident. That's the paradox that is Duke/UNC.

ns7
02-28-2011, 07:50 PM
Duke vs. UNC.

Numbers. :rolleyes:

I wonder what the numbers predicted in 95 at Cameron.

Or on the flipside, in 06 at Cameron.

We have every reason to be nervous, and every reason to be confident. That's the paradox that is Duke/UNC.

Actually most advanced statistics predicted a close game in Cameron in 2006.

I know there's a lot of emotion involved but at the end of the day it's a basketball game. I'm sure that's what the coaching staff preaches. When you get too caught up into it, you start playing "NUTS" as Coach K put it after the game earlier this year.

sandinmyshoes
02-28-2011, 08:43 PM
Actually most advanced statistics predicted a close game in Cameron in 2006.

I know there's a lot of emotion involved but at the end of the day it's a basketball game. I'm sure that's what the coaching staff preaches. When you get too caught up into it, you start playing "NUTS" as Coach K put it after the game earlier this year.

Sure, and UNC was predicted to win in 95 and did so. But nobody expected an overtime affair based on numbers, did they?

Also, we have to be honest. The '06 game in Cameron was not really all that close a game.

Of course, the point is that it is Duke and UNC, so nearly anything is possible

ns7
03-01-2011, 10:40 AM
Sure, and UNC was predicted to win in 95 and did so. But nobody expected an overtime affair based on numbers, did they?

Also, we have to be honest. The '06 game in Cameron was not really all that close a game.

Of course, the point is that it is Duke and UNC, so nearly anything is possible

And Texas was supposed to beat KSU last night too, but we really can't call that a rivalry. But if it were a rivalry, I'm sure everyone would attribute the upset to the fact that the two teams were rivals.

Upsets happen in basketball; attributing their causes to pressure from a rivalry is just selection bias. Otherwise you could make a ton of money betting the underdog in rivalry games.