Seth Davis re #1 seeds

[TNDukeFan]

At the Ohio State-Indiana halftime just now, Seth had OSU, KS, BYU, and Pitt as his #1's (as did Greg Anthony). Then he said he thought a team was better off as a 2 or 3 playing close to home than as a #1 "playing in Anaheim."

(Mods, I looked for a thread for this -- move it if you wish.)

[uh_no]

At the Ohio State-Indiana halftime just now, Seth had OSU, KS, BYU, and Pitt as his #1's (as did Greg Anthony). Then he said he thought a team was better off as a 2 or 3 playing close to home than as a #1 "playing in Anaheim."

(Mods, I looked for a thread for this -- move it if you wish.)

the problem is, if we're the #5 overall, we'll go to newark, and that will likely be osu or pitt....if we're the #6 overall, we could end up in new orleans, which will likely be osu or pitt :P (this assumes that BYU goes to cali, and if tx or ks are the other 1, they go to texas)

[tommy]

At the Ohio State-Indiana halftime just now, Seth had OSU, KS, BYU, and Pitt as his #1's (as did Greg Anthony). Then he said he thought a team was better off as a 2 or 3 playing close to home than as a #1 "playing in Anaheim."

(Mods, I looked for a thread for this -- move it if you wish.)

Pitt? Even having lost 2 out if their last 3?

As far as Duke goes, I care a lot less about whether we're a #1 or a #2 and a lot more about who our potential EE opponent would be. I'll take being a #2 in BYU's bracket over being a #1 with a team like Pitt as our #2 any day of the week.

[Olympic Fan]

Pitt? Even having lost 2 out if their last 3?

As far as Duke goes, I care a lot less about whether we're a #1 or a #2 and a lot more about who our potential EE opponent would be. I'll take being a #2 in BYU's bracket over being a #1 with a team like Pitt as our #2 any day of the week.

Agree ... it's much more fluid than this.

As I posted in another thread, Ohio State and Kansas are in GREAT shape for No. 1 seeds. But Pitt, losing again today, Duke and even BYU are battling for the last two No. 1 seeds. All three have conference tournaments that will impact the choice ... while Duke also has a tough test at UNC next Saturday.

Just one note: If BYU is a No. 1, they will be the No. 1 in Anaheim for sure, since that's a Thursday-Saturday site (San Antonio is Friday-Sunday; BYU can't play on a Sunday). I think Kansas is pretty certain to be the No. 1 in San Antonio and Ohio State looks like a good bet to get Newark.

Ohio State is almost certain to be higher seeded that Pitt and would thus beat out Pitt for Newark.

That leaves Duke and Pitt the most likely candidates to New Orleans. The one that finishes stronger will have the best claim.

I think Texas and San Diego State slipped to the fringe of the No. 1 seed debate with their losses this weekend.

[Chris Randolph]

I wouldn't worry about #1 seeds until March 13th. Until then, with the remainder of the regular season and conference tournaments, anything can happen

[Olympic Fan]

I wouldn't worry about #1 seeds until March 13th. Until then, with the remainder of the regular season and conference tournaments, anything can happen

Nobody's worried ... but this is a message board. If you can't speculate and debate here, what's the fun of it?

[Chris Randolph]

Nobody's worried ... but this is a message board. If you can't speculate and debate here, what's the fun of it?

I understand the speculation, it is fun to do (although Joe Lunardi's bracketology gets old, real fast). Just warning the folks who think it is life or death at this moment, haha

[ajgoodfella7]

I think one thing the committee will take into consideration when seeding Duke is the health of Kyrie Irving. If you look back to last year, Purdue went from a possible #1-seed or at worst a #2-seed, to a #4-seed after Robbie Hummel tore his ACL. If Kyrie does get back sometime in the next week (as some have speculated) and Duke's offense starts to resemble (or doesn't) the way it looked before KI went down, then that could play a huge factor in determining what seed Duke gets. It all depends on how good Duke looks by the time the ACC tourney ends (assuming KI does get back). I think if Duke can get back on track, there is still plenty of time to not only get a #1-seed, but one of the top 2 #1-seeds.

[Danke Shane]

You know what I would like to see? I'm sick of Duke being a #1 seed and listening to all the pundits whine about us "backing into a 1 seed" or "having the easiest bracket". It would amuse me greatly if Duke got a 2 seed and for a change we got to make someone else's bracket "the hardest road to the FF". Let someone else deal with the pressure of being the top seeded team in the bracket, especially if we get Kyrie back... I think being a 2 seed might provide an extra little incentive to pump our players up.

Just wishful thinking I guess.

[rthomas]

You know what I would like to see? I'm sick of Duke being a #1 seed and listening to all the pundits whine about us "backing into a 1 seed" or "having the easiest bracket". It would amuse me greatly if Duke got a 2 seed and for a change we got to make someone else's bracket "the hardest road to the FF". Let someone else deal with the pressure of being the top seeded team in the bracket, especially if we get Kyrie back... I think being a 2 seed might provide an extra little incentive to pump our players up.

Just wishful thinking I guess.

Maybe they will make BYU a 1 and us their 16, because I would really like to see us play BYU and let Duke play defense on Ferdette. I don't care what number we get.

[Neals384]

I can't for the life of me see byu getting a #1 Seed. It's much more likely, IMHO, that one of the major conferences gets two #1 seeds. For example, if Purdue wins the Big 10 conf, they and OSU might both get #1 seeds. If Texas wins the Big 12, they and Kansas might both get #1 seeds. If Pitt wins the BigE, they will get a #1 for sure.

Possible #1 seedsTexas, if they win the Big12
Kansas, even if they don't win the big 12
Purdue, if they win the big 12
OSU, even if they don't win the big 12
Pitt, if they win the BigE
Duke, if they win ACC conf tourney

That's somewhere between 2 and 6 teams for 4 slots and no room for BYU, I think.

[ice-9]

I can't for the life of me see byu getting a #1 Seed. It's much more likely, IMHO, that one of the major conferences gets two #1 seeds. For example, if Purdue wins the Big 10 conf, they and OSU might both get #1 seeds. If Texas wins the Big 12, they and Kansas might both get #1 seeds. If Pitt wins the BigE, they will get a #1 for sure.

Possible #1 seedsTexas, if they win the Big12
Kansas, even if they don't win the big 12
Purdue, if they win the big 12
OSU, even if they don't win the big 12
Pitt, if they win the BigE
Duke, if they win ACC conf tourney

That's somewhere between 2 and 6 teams for 4 slots and no room for BYU, I think.

Keep in mind that this year the Mountain West is rated #4 in the RPI. The ACC is #5.

[NashvilleDevil]

I remember UConn being the preseason favorite to win it all in 04. When it came time for the tourney they were sent out west as a 2 seed. We here know what happened in the end. But they were the favorite going into the season and lost 6 games during the season. Just something to bring up if Duke is sent out West as a 2 seed.

[sporthenry]

I would love to see Duke get BYU's 2nd seed. Sure fans will still claim Duke got the easiest 1 seed, but odds are they are #5 on the S-curve, so they would deserve it. Hopefully, the committee doesn't do us favors and keeps us in the East. Although the 4 seed would more than likely be pretty weak then.

But BYU is certainly a legit #1 contender. If they winthe MWC, I don't see them not getting one. As someone said, their conference RPI is 4th and they would have beaten SD St. 2-3 times. Texas/Kansas and OSU/Purdue will all lose at least once more, so if BYU wins out, it is hard to deny them a 1 seed.

[Troublemaker]

Then he said he thought a team was better off as a 2 or 3 playing close to home than as a #1 "playing in Anaheim."

Meh. Show me the brackets and I'll show him which region I want. If it's Anaheim with a soft 8/9, 4/5, and 2 seeds, then sure, I'll take that 1 seed. If not, then no.

[WiJoe]

I would love to see Duke get BYU's 2nd seed. Sure fans will still claim Duke got the easiest 1 seed, but odds are they are #5 on the S-curve, so they would deserve it. Hopefully, the committee doesn't do us favors and keeps us in the East. Although the 4 seed would more than likely be pretty weak then.

But BYU is certainly a legit #1 contender. If they winthe MWC, I don't see them not getting one. As someone said, their conference RPI is 4th and they would have beaten SD St. 2-3 times. Texas/Kansas and OSU/Purdue will all lose at least once more, so if BYU wins out, it is hard to deny them a 1 seed.

The committee no longer uses the "s" curve. It's a straight 1-68 ranking.

You have to read quite a ways down, but here's the link:

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2011/02/17/ncaa-mock-selection-seminar-day-one-recap/

[uh_no]

I would love to see Duke get BYU's 2nd seed.

Highly unlikely. With the geographical distribution of top teams, BYU is almost guaranteed to be in the west region. Assuming duke is the top #2 seed, they would be nowhere near going out west. There are only 2 situations that would put duke and byu together

1) duke is #4 and BYU is a 2 seed
2) byu is a 1 seed and duke is #8

obviously the first situation is plausible, but the second one is very much less so.

[sporthenry]

Well they might not use the S-curve but they will inherently use a similar process. And many publications along with Lunard still publish their own S-curve so it must still serve some purpose. They probably got rid of the 'S-curve' b/c of people complaing about things like last year with Duke. But the seeds will be ranked and set in a similar manner.

But the 1 seeds will be placed according to site so give OSU the East, Kansas the southwest, Pitt the Southeast, and BYU the West for arguments sake. Then it comes down to what the committee wants to do in terms of distance/seed preference. And again for arguments sake, the 2 seeds are Duke, Texas, SD State, and Purdue in that order. Would the committee reward Duke with a closer regional site than Pitt or OSU the 1 seed or put them in the West for the #4 1 seed? Recently the committee seems to put more emphasis on distance but hopefully they keep some semblance of an S-curve to give Duke an easy 3 seed.

[wilson]

FWIW, Pitt went down (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=310580097) tonight, throwing yet another monkey wrench into the proceedings.
Selection Sunday might be one of the more interesting ones in years, as the top three seed lines are nowhere near settled at this point.

[uh_no]

Well they might not use the S-curve but they will inherently use a similar process. And many publications along with Lunard still publish their own S-curve so it must still serve some purpose. They probably got rid of the 'S-curve' b/c of people complaing about things like last year with Duke. But the seeds will be ranked and set in a similar manner.

But the 1 seeds will be placed according to site so give OSU the East, Kansas the southwest, Pitt the Southeast, and BYU the West for arguments sake. Then it comes down to what the committee wants to do in terms of distance/seed preference. And again for arguments sake, the 2 seeds are Duke, Texas, SD State, and Purdue in that order. Would the committee reward Duke with a closer regional site than Pitt or OSU the 1 seed or put them in the West for the #4 1 seed? Recently the committee seems to put more emphasis on distance but hopefully they keep some semblance of an S-curve to give Duke an easy 3 seed.
The 1 and 2 seeds are placed strictly by location, and the 3 and 4 by competitive advantage. So optimally, the sum of the 1 2 3 and 4 seeds overall rank would be 34, so if the overall 1 and 5 teams were in each bracket, they might take the overall 16 and 12 seeds to balance it

[tommy]

I can't for the life of me see byu getting a #1 Seed. It's much more likely, IMHO, that one of the major conferences gets two #1 seeds. For example, if Purdue wins the Big 10 conf, they and OSU might both get #1 seeds. If Texas wins the Big 12, they and Kansas might both get #1 seeds. If Pitt wins the BigE, they will get a #1 for sure.

Possible #1 seedsTexas, if they win the Big12
Kansas, even if they don't win the big 12
Purdue, if they win the big 12
OSU, even if they don't win the big 12
Pitt, if they win the BigE
Duke, if they win ACC conf tourney

That's somewhere between 2 and 6 teams for 4 slots and no room for BYU, I think.

Do you realize that it's not just that BYU is 27-2 with their conference ranked #4 in the RPI? The team itself is ranked anywhere from #1 to #3 in all of the various RPI calculations. No lower than third. If they win out, they have an excellent chance to get a #1.

[uh_no]

Do you realize that it's not just that BYU is 27-2 with their conference ranked #4 in the RPI? The team itself is ranked anywhere from #1 to #3 in all of the various RPI calculations. No lower than third. If they win out, they have an excellent chance to get a #1.


While I agree with everything you say, the committee has tended to put huge weight on power conference championships; take duke last year and louisville the year before. If pitt duke osu and kansas/texas win their regular season and tournament championships, they're as good as locks.

[tommy]

While I agree with everything you say, the committee has tended to put huge weight on power conference championships; take duke last year and louisville the year before. If pitt duke osu and kansas/texas win their regular season and tournament championships, they're as good as locks.

You're probably right as to your last sentence. It's just that I think the chances of BYU winning out are significantly better than the chances that all four of the others do. I'd be surprised if three of them won out from here, much less all four.

[uh_no]

You're probably right as to your last sentence. It's just that I think the chances of BYU winning out are significantly better than the chances that all four of the others do. I'd be surprised if three of them won out from here, much less all four.


Oh I agree. I'm just saying, all things equal, the committee has shown they like to pick big conference players as 1 seeds

Dose anyone know the last non BCS team to be a #1 seed?

[sporthenry]

Oh I agree. I'm just saying, all things equal, the committee has shown they like to pick big conference players as 1 seeds

Dose anyone know the last non BCS team to be a #1 seed?

Memphis although BYU reminds me more of the St. Joes situation than Memphis. Granted, St. Joes was undefeated, BYU's resume at this point is very good in a down year.

[sporthenry]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_staples/02/21/mock.tournament.selection/2.html

This link said that they used the S-curve for the 2011 mock selection and I haven't found anywhere else that said the S-curve was dead so I'm not sure if it is. Originally, they put Duke as the best #2 seed in the East but eventually they moved them away from the #1 overall team as the East will most likely house the #1 overall team. So I feel that situation is somewhat fluid and something else that could help is that the committee will have to keep some teams away from each other. So if Texas jumps Duke, they would more than likely steal the SE b/c they won't go to the SW and if Purdue beats OSU, Purdue might jump Duke, OSU would go to the SE and Purdue would go to the east. SD St would have to go to SW and Duke would be 'stuck' going West.

Of course, it is way too early to do anything but hope, but there is a distinct possibility and besides doesn't the committee just pencil us into the final 4?

[uh_no]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_staples/02/21/mock.tournament.selection/2.html

This link said that they used the S-curve for the 2011 mock selection and I haven't found anywhere else that said the S-curve was dead so I'm not sure if it is. Originally, they put Duke as the best #2 seed in the East but eventually they moved them away from the #1 overall team as the East will most likely house the #1 overall team. So I feel that situation is somewhat fluid and something else that could help is that the committee will have to keep some teams away from each other. So if Texas jumps Duke, they would more than likely steal the SE b/c they won't go to the SW and if Purdue beats OSU, Purdue might jump Duke, OSU would go to the SE and Purdue would go to the east. SD St would have to go to SW and Duke would be 'stuck' going West.

Of course, it is way too early to do anything but hope, but there is a distinct possibility and besides doesn't the committee just pencil us into the final 4?


Ryan (Fargo)

If Ohio State is #1 and Duke #5 in the S-Curve, how did they both end up in the East? Is it a matter of too many Big East teams in the top 4 seeds that they needed to be spread out?
Joe Lunardi (4:39 PM)

No, it's a matter of the East Region being the closest available landing spot for each. I disagree with this type of bracketing in such cases, but the Committee would do it if they could balance the rest of the East with "weaker" No. 3 and No. 4 seeds.


Derek (Austin)

On your most recent bracket, I noticed that Texas is a 2 seed in the San Antonio region. What are the rules or policies regarding 2 seeds and preferred locations as far as the S-curve is concerned?
Joe Lunardi (4:11 PM)

The Committee places every team into the field one-at-a-time. So in this example, when Texas comes up as No. 6 overall, they are given the closest available first-weekend site in the closest available region (without violating any of the many bracketing principles). What fell into their laps this week was Tulsa/San Antonio, which is obviously a pretty favorable geographic draw. Going forward, Tulsa remains likely while San Antonio will be a bit more of a crap shot as a potential regional assignment.

Sorry for the long winded posts, but Joe Lunardi knows more about bracketing than most people, and has a pretty good explanation. I tried to explain it before, but pretty much location is the #1 criteria for 1 and 2 seeds, and making the brackets equally strong is the #1 criteria for 3 and 4 seeds...the rest are slotted in however they can fit them without breaking the rules.

[sporthenry]

I understand that location is important but keeping teams from the same conference out of the same bracket is the most important. Hence, why Texas could end up in the SE if Kansas gets the SW. If Pitt jumps OSU for the 1 seed and Purdue jumps Duke, they could wind up in the East. SD State would have to avoid BYU and Duke gets the West.
In addition, if it isn't possible for the 3-4 seeds to even out or conference team problems arise, Duke could easily move.
And as much as Joey Brackets seems to know about Brackets, he seems very distracted this year as the most recent bracket has a rematch with Duke/K-state in the 2nd round when that would be the least likely to happen. Which maybe that is why K scheduled K-state b/c we won't have the strongest 7-10 seed in our pod.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Pitt? Even having lost 2 out if their last 3?

As far as Duke goes, I care a lot less about whether we're a #1 or a #2 and a lot more about who our potential EE opponent would be. I'll take being a #2 in BYU's bracket over being a #1 with a team like Pitt as our #2 any day of the week.

I agree 100%. Ultimately, I think we will end up a Number 1 seed assuming we win out through the ACC Tourney. Lots of teams are going to lose between now and then. Sign me up for the BYU bracket one way or another.

[ice-9]

While I agree with everything you say, the committee has tended to put huge weight on power conference championships; take duke last year and louisville the year before. If pitt duke osu and kansas/texas win their regular season and tournament championships, they're as good as locks.

Championships from the power conferences matter when the power conferences themselves are good. I don't see the Pac-10 champ as a #1 seed, for example.

Following that, it counted for Duke and Louisville because the ACC and Big East were top conferences those years. This year, the ACC is not considered among the best; in fact, in the RPI it's rated lower than the Mountain West. If BYU and Duke win out and there's only one spot left, it's gonna come down to the wire as to which team gets it. For us to be above BYU comfortably, we'd need to win out the rest of the way and for BYU to stumble.

It's NOT "as good as a lock." It might've been had we beaten Virginia Tech yesterday, but that ship has sailed.

[weezie]

Maybe they will make BYU a 1 and us their 16, because I would really like to see us play BYU and let Duke play defense on Ferdette. I don't care what number we get.

Brilliant! Thanks for making me laugh this morning. Just what I needed to see. I'll definitely be caging this opinion as my own all day today. Still laughing. :cool: