ACC #1 seed

[dcdevil2009]

With three games left in the regular season, we're looking like a virtual look for a share of the ACC regular season championship. We need either two wins or a win and a UNC loss. However, UNC can also win a share of the regular season title and get the top seed in the ACCs by winning out. Ultimately, being a 1 or 2 seed in the ACCs won't matter for either team, but if we get the 1 seed, it would be the first time we've won the ACC outright since the 05-06 season and bring Coach K one game closer to catching the General in all time wins. Oh yeah, it would also mean we beat UNC, which is probably the most important thing outside of the Final Four.

Mods, I forgot to take out the NCAAT part from the title of the thread. Please change it if necessary or move my post to another thread if it's in the wrong place.

[Kedsy]

Oh yeah, it would also mean we beat UNC, which is probably the most important thing outside of the Final Four.

This is not necessarily true, unless UNC wins its next two games. They have Maryland and @Florida State, so them coming out of that with two wins is by no means a lock. As you point out, if they lose one of those games and we beat VaTech and Clemson, then ACC seeding will not be affected by our game in Chapel Hill.

[superdave]

This is not necessarily true, unless UNC wins its next two games. They have Maryland and @Florida State, so them coming out of that with two wins is by no means a lock. As you point out, if they lose one of those games and we beat VaTech and Clemson, then ACC seeding will not be affected by our game in Chapel Hill.

FSU has it tough without Chris Singleton. Gary Williams comes out swinging with his back against the wall, so I'd bet that's Unc's tougher matchup. It will be a big relief to get VPI behind us.

I'm surprised after the GT loss that Unc has not dropped another stinkbomb or two. BC should have been one last weekend, but that 3 rimmed out. They actually remind me of a few Duke teams in recent years - over-achieving in the ACC to some extent.

[rasputin]

FSU has it tough without Chris Singleton. Gary Williams comes out swinging with his back against the wall, so I'd bet that's Unc's tougher matchup. It will be a big relief to get VPI behind us.

I'm surprised after the GT loss that Unc has not dropped another stinkbomb or two. BC should have been one last weekend, but that 3 rimmed out. They actually remind me of a few Duke teams in recent years - over-achieving in the ACC to some extent.

Maryland looked very good against FSU. Sweaty must have been wondering where that's been.

[-bdbd]

FSU has it tough without Chris Singleton. Gary Williams comes out swinging with his back against the wall, so I'd bet that's Unc's tougher matchup. It will be a big relief to get VPI behind us.

I'm surprised after the GT loss that Unc has not dropped another stinkbomb or two. BC should have been one last weekend, but that 3 rimmed out. They actually remind me of a few Duke teams in recent years - over-achieving in the ACC to some extent.

Nah, Duke isn't that incredibly lucky. NC has won an awful lot of last-minute nail-biters -- an incredible number actually. Think of one bucket/last second wins vs Clemson, Mia, VPI and BC just for starters. Even the NCSU game in Raleigh last night was tied with about 8 minutes to go. Geez, these cats have used up just about all nine of their lives!!

Both MD and FSU believe that they are on the bubble, and so will be motivated. If FSU didn't have the injury issued I think they be actually favored in Tal.

Sure would be nice to have this all sewn up before heading over to the Dump. :rolleyes:

[NovaScotian]

Sure would be nice to have this all sewn up before heading over to the Dump. :rolleyes:

i see what you're saying, but i would argue going into the dean dome and taking unc's glimmer of hope at an acc regular season championship away would be pretty sweet too. but, to each his own, i guess.

[Vincetaylor]

We are by no means a lock to at least claim a share of the regular season title. We could easily lose to Tech and UNC and UNC could win out. There is a decent chance this could happen.

[Reilly]

"decent chance" ... about 5% chance using current kenpom numbers (and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win) .... stranger things have happened ... glad the 95% probability is on our side ....

[OldPhiKap]

(and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win)

Wish I could do that, but can't. All three games are real challenges. I would not be surprised to drop one of the three, and all three opponents are capable of "being the one" that does it.

[Vincetaylor]

"decent chance" ... about 5% chance using current kenpom numbers (and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win) .... stranger things have happened ... glad the 95% probability is on our side ....

5% is ridiculous. I wish we were that good and UNC was that bad.

[Cameron]

My view on any year Carolina wins the regular-season: Congratulations, Cliff Ellis is applauding; you have won a piece of cloth that says "winner." As we all know, however, that piece of cloth means about as much as a participant ribbon at the local Pinewood Derby.

That obviously means I still want to beat the hell out of them and win the the regular season for seeding purposes to the real show, the ACC men's basketball tournament. And, also as we all know, Duke has won the real ACC championship nine of the past 12 years. Carolina? Well, just two. But they do during that time span have a tomb full of participant ribbons. Oh wait, the same number of ACC #1 seeds as Duke. Five.

Upon closer look. Since 1991 (last 20 years)

ACC #1 Seeds

Duke 11, North Carolina 7

ACC Championships

Duke 10, North Carolina 6

National Championships (for good measure)

Duke 4, North Carolina 3

Head-to-Head (humiliation)

Duke 27, North Carolina 21

Pretty telling numbers, I think. Glad I decided to examine it all. Definitely makes me feel better about myself. :)

[snowdenscold]

Cameron,

I used to be totally onboard the "ACC Champion = tournament winner; don't talk to me about regular season" express, but I've softened my position. Things like finishing first in conference regular season play, or achieving a #1 AP ranking at the end of the year are still pretty big deals - as fun and exciting as one-and-done tournaments may be. I know we like to brag how we have dominated the ACC Championship recently, but I can't fault teams who want to honor their sustained excellence over an entire season.

[Reilly]

5% is ridiculous. I wish we were that good and UNC was that bad.

I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.

[Reilly]

Wish I could do that, but can't. All three games are real challenges. I would not be surprised to drop one of the three, and all three opponents are capable of "being the one" that does it.

I agree with you. I was counting Clemson as a win (I think kenpom says its 91% ... I bumped it to 100%) simply for the purposes of calculating the "what are the odds that Duke loses to VT and UNC and UNC wins out" scenario.

[Skitzle]

Is this correct?

If UNC wins out, and we only lose in Chapel Hill, unc will get the #1 seed in the acc tourney as they will have beaten florida state and we will have lost to florida state and the record against the next best opponent is the tie breaker?

-Skitz

[nocilla]

Is this correct?

If UNC wins out, and we only lose in Chapel Hill, unc will get the #1 seed in the acc tourney as they will have beaten florida state and we will have lost to florida state and the record against the next best opponent is the tie breaker?

-Skitz

Correct.

[CDu]

Is this correct?

If UNC wins out, and we only lose in Chapel Hill, unc will get the #1 seed in the acc tourney as they will have beaten florida state and we will have lost to florida state and the record against the next best opponent is the tie breaker?

-Skitz

Correct. And that is going to hold true pretty much regardless if UNC wins out because their only loss is to bottom-feeder Georgia Tech. So no matter where FSU ends up, it'd be above Ga Tech.

The hope is to beat UNC at UNC or for them to lose to either Maryland at home or FSU (without Singleton) in Tallahassee. If we beat UNC, we'd have to lose to both Clemson and Va Tech to fall into a tie with UNC (which would again give them the #1 seed).

I'd say the odds are in our favor. I'm not sure I'd call it a virtual lock, but it's a strong probability.

[Dev11]

If we beat UNC, we'd have to lose to both Clemson and Va Tech to fall into a tie with UNC (which would again give them the #1 seed).

I believe this is incorrect, as the first tiebreaker for seeding is head-to-head tally, which in that scenario we would be winning 2-0. If head-to-head is tied, then you start moving down the ranks of the ACC looking for the first loss.

[Vincetaylor]

I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.

If you were a betting man, would you honestly take the Duke side of that bet? Personally, I would give UNC more like a 30% of beating us outright. I'm pretty sure Vegas would be around 4:1 or 5:1, certainly not 20:1.

[sagegrouse]

I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.


If you were a betting man, would you honestly take the Duke side of that bet? Personally, I would give UNC more like a 30% of beating us outright. I'm pretty sure Vegas would be around 4:1 or 5:1, certainly not 20:1.

So, getting a bit confused by the discussion, I modeled all the possible outcomes of Duke and Carolina wins and losses over the final three conference games. There are 32 such combinations (dorky explanation: there are eight possible combinations of wins and losses over three games: w-w-w, w-w-l, etc. But Carolina and Duke play each other so, there are 32, not 64 total possible outcomes). Of the 32 combinations, 21 (66%) favor Duke and 11 (34%) favor Carolina. That implicitly assumes each game is a 50-50 proposition.

If one assumes (I never assume anything, so it must be someone else) that Duke (v. Clemson) and UNC (v. Maryland) hold serve at home, there are only eight (8) possible outcomes of the remaining games. Five favor Duke (62.5%), three Carolina. The only case in which the Duke-UNC winner is not the #1 seed is if Duke wins against VT and UNC loses at FSU.

So, it may be that Duke has a better chance of winning over VT, Clemson and UNC than UNC has of winning against Maryland, FSU, and Duke, but I don't see how jiggering those odds in any reasonable way produces a 95% chance of a Duke #1 seed.

sagegrouse

[Reilly]

... Five favor Duke (62.5%), three Carolina. .... but I don't see how jiggering those odds in any reasonable way produces a 95% chance of a Duke #1 seed.

sagegrouse

Duke is 12-1.
UNC is 11-2.

I wasn't talking about getting the #1 seed; I was talking about winning the ACC regular season title. They are different things (see 2001, when Duke 'won' the regular season but was not the #1 seed; two or more (see 1995) teams can win the regular season title).

I believe someone was positing that the following could happen: Duke could lose to VT and UNC (making Duke 13-3), and UNC would win out (making UNC 14-2). In this situation, Duke would not win the regular season crown. That is bad. I like winning championships, even regular season ones. K brought the team into Cameron to show them all the teams that have won either the regular season or tourney crown (remember, you can tie for reg season).

Kenpom has us at 91% to beat Clemson. Singler and Smith are, I think, 64-2 in Cameron. Let's assume that we'll beat Clemson. On senior night. In a game the computer says we will win 91% of the time. By two guys who have lost twice in four years there, and not since their sophomore year.

So, what has to happen for Duke to *not* win the ACC regular season crown. Duke will be at least 13-3. Meaning Carolina has to be 14-2.

What has to happen:

Duke lose to VT (28% chance) X Duke lose to UNC (41% chance) X UNC beat Maryland (71% chance) X UNC beat FSU (58%) = 4.7% chance Duke does not win (or tie) the regular season.

95% chance we're hanging a banner. Not 95% chance we get ACC #1.

[sagegrouse]

Duke is 12-1.
UNC is 11-2.

I wasn't talking about getting the #1 seed; I was talking about winning the ACC regular season title. They are different things (see 2001, when Duke 'won' the regular season but was not the #1 seed; two or more (see 1995) teams can win the regular season title).

I believe someone was positing that the following could happen: Duke could lose to VT and UNC (making Duke 13-3), and UNC would win out (making UNC 14-2). In this situation, Duke would not win the regular season crown. That is bad. I like winning championships, even regular season ones. K brought the team into Cameron to show them all the teams that have won either the regular season or tourney crown (remember, you can tie for reg season).

Kenpom has us at 91% to beat Clemson. Singler and Smith are, I think, 64-2 in Cameron. Let's assume that we'll beat Clemson. On senior night. In a game the computer says we will win 91% of the time. By two guys who have lost twice in four years there, and not since their sophomore year.

So, what has to happen for Duke to *not* win the ACC regular season crown. Duke will be at least 13-3. Meaning Carolina has to be 14-2.

What has to happen:

Duke lose to VT (28% chance) X Duke lose to UNC (41% chance) X UNC beat Maryland (71% chance) X UNC beat FSU (58%) = 4.7% chance Duke does not win (or tie) the regular season.

95% chance we're hanging a banner. Not 95% chance we get ACC #1.

You are correct. I was beguiled by the thread title, "ACC #1 Seed," and failed to divine your meaning about the probability of being regular season co-champions. My fault.

Modifying my previous calculations, 27 of 32 cases would make Duke at least regular season co-champion, or 84%. And a much higher percentage if you assumed a Duke win over Clemson -- but I ain't going there.

sagegrouse

[Reilly]

Easy to see how the thread title would confuse. I was simply replying to the assertion in post #7 about garnering at least a tie for the regular season title and the "decent chance" that would not happen. The 84% number you give is if every game is 50/50, right?

[sagegrouse]

Easy to see how the thread title would confuse. I was simply replying to the assertion in post #7 about garnering at least a tie for the regular season title and the "decent chance" that would not happen. The 84% number you give is if every game is 50/50, right?

Yep. It's just a count of all possible outcomes. - sagegrouse

[Olympic Fan]

Cameron,

I used to be totally onboard the "ACC Champion = tournament winner; don't talk to me about regular season" express, but I've softened my position. Things like finishing first in conference regular season play, or achieving a #1 AP ranking at the end of the year are still pretty big deals - as fun and exciting as one-and-done tournaments may be. I know we like to brag how we have dominated the ACC Championship recently, but I can't fault teams who want to honor their sustained excellence over an entire season.

Don't get me wrong ... winning the ACC "regular season" championship is an achievement, but getting excited about it is about like Tampa Bay claiming to be the best in the AL or the "chmpion" of the AL last season because they had the most regular season wins.

The tournament winner is the ACC champion -- THE Champion. Period. Whether it is fair or not, that's the way the conference figures it.

I posted in another thread that the ACC regular season championship is the equivilent to the No. 1 ranking in the final AP Poll, while the ACC Tournament title is the equivilent to the NCAA Tournament title (then national awards are more significant than the conference ones, but in the sense the two regular season awards carry far less weight that the tournament titles).

I want to win the regular season title. I want to win it outright. But I don't think either of those desires is nearly as important as how much I want to beat UNC in Chapel Hill. Win that and the other stuff follows.

As for the No. 1 ACC Tourney seed ... that's not a big deal at all.

[Reilly]

... I want to win the regular season title. I want to win it outright. But I don't think either of those desires is nearly as important as how much I want to beat UNC in Chapel Hill. ....

As you note, if we beat UNC, we garner a tie with UNC at worst for the regular season crown. We'd be 13-3 at worst and they'd also have 3 losses.

The interesting question for me is this:

What do you choose in a season:

(A) Duke wins regular season title at 14-2, but two losses are to UNC; or
(B) Duke beats UNC twice, finishes 13-3, and UNC wins the title at 14-2.

I hate Carolina as much as anyone. But I have to take "A". We're about winning championships. I think K would take "A" over "B" as well.

[nocilla]

As you note, if we beat UNC, we garner a tie with UNC at worst for the regular season crown. We'd be 13-3 at worst and they'd also have 3 losses.

The interesting question for me is this:

What do you choose in a season:

(A) Duke wins regular season title at 14-2, but two losses are to UNC; or
(B) Duke beats UNC twice, finishes 13-3, and UNC wins the title at 14-2.

I hate Carolina as much as anyone. But I have to take "A". We're about winning championships. I think K would take "A" over "B" as well.

I would most certainly take option B. We can still win the ACC tourney to make up for a 2nd place reg season finish. The tourney carries more weight than the regular season anyway, especially with the unbalanced scheduling. But even if we didn't win the ACC tourney I would be more happy with option B because we still put ourselves in good position to win the ACC tourney and got a decent seed for the NCAA. Those are the Championships most of us are about.

[Reilly]

... or to make a more difficult choice:

(A) Duke 0-2 against UNC and Duke wins regular season title.

OR

(B) Duke 2-0 against UNC and neither Duke nor UNC wins reg season title.

I still choose "A". Every time.

[UrinalCake]

Regarding MD@UNC - a good buddy of mine is a big-time Maryland fan and his take is that Stoglin has emerged as their go-to guy over Cliff Tucker. Now that they've solidified their lineup, everyone knows their roles and they're playing much better than they were earlier in the year. I give them a real shot at beating UNC. It's a road game, but according to Scott Van Pelt that doesn't make much difference since the crowd at Comcast is nonexistent 8-)

[throatybeard]

My view on any year Carolina wins the regular-season: Congratulations, Cliff Ellis is applauding; you have won a piece of cloth that says "winner." As we all know, however, that piece of cloth means about as much as a participant ribbon at the local Pinewood Derby.

That obviously means I still want to beat the hell out of them and win the the regular season for seeding purposes to the real show, the ACC men's basketball tournament. And, also as we all know, Duke has won the real ACC championship nine of the past 12 years. Carolina? Well, just two. But they do during that time span have a tomb full of participant ribbons. Oh wait, the same number of ACC #1 seeds as Duke. Five.

Upon closer look. Since 1991 (last 20 years)

ACC #1 Seeds

Duke 11, North Carolina 7

ACC Championships

Duke 10, North Carolina 6

National Championships (for good measure)

Duke 4, North Carolina 3

Head-to-Head (humiliation)

Duke 27, North Carolina 21

Pretty telling numbers, I think. Glad I decided to examine it all. Definitely makes me feel better about myself. :)

You left out second-place NIT finishes.

[nocilla]

Lunardi's latest bracketology has Duke as the #1 in the Southwest region with Kansas as the #2. He also has UNC as a #4 in the Southeast bracket playing opening round games in Charlotte while Georgetown, a #3 seed in the West bracket, plays in Tampa. Wouldn't UNC and GU be swapped if their seedings remain?

*Oops, wrong thread. Can the mods move this to the 'chase for #1 seed' thread? Thanks.

[MChambers]

Lunardi's latest bracketology has Duke as the #1 in the Southwest region with Kansas as the #2. He also has UNC as a #4 in the Southeast bracket playing opening round games in Charlotte while Georgetown, a #3 seed in the West bracket, plays in Tampa. Wouldn't UNC and GU be swapped if their seedings remain?

*Oops, wrong thread. Can the mods move this to the 'chase for #1 seed' thread? Thanks.
Not to worry too much about this in February, but how could Duke and Kansas, two of the top three teams, end up in the same bracket?

[Cameron]

You left out second-place NIT finishes.


That really disappoints me, actually. That would have been a much more fitting statistic under "humiliation." There are a few more areas that would compliment a 20-year comparison between Duke and Carolina as well.

Upon closer look. Since 1991 (last 20 years):

Invitations to the "National Tournament"

North Carolina 2, Duke 0

NIT Final Fours

North Carolina 1, Duke 0

NIT Second-Places

North Carolina 1, Duke 0

NIT Second-Places via Losses to Dayton

North Carolina 1, Duke 0

NIT Quarter-Finalists

North Carolina 1, Duke 0

Players who have Participated in the NIT

North Carolina 27, Duke 0

Players who Played Basketball Like a Chair*

North Carolina 1, Duke 0

Pretty telling numbers, I think. We have some work to do if we are going to catch Roy and his boys in these "championship" areas. As it stands currently, we are getting pummeled.

*This, of course, is in reference to William Graves, whose chair, it is safe to say, is no longer strong.

[Scorp4me]

Cameron,

I used to be totally onboard the "ACC Champion = tournament winner; don't talk to me about regular season" express, but I've softened my position. Things like finishing first in conference regular season play, or achieving a #1 AP ranking at the end of the year are still pretty big deals - as fun and exciting as one-and-done tournaments may be. I know we like to brag how we have dominated the ACC Championship recently, but I can't fault teams who want to honor their sustained excellence over an entire season.

I used to feel they were almost equal. A season of excellence and a weekend of excitement. But that was before with the home and away schedules that resulted in equal and fair schedules for each team. With the new 12 team ACC and the unbalanced scheduling the regular season title has lost some of it's luster.

[Olympic Fan]

You left out second-place NIT finishes.

Actually, the stat should be:

Missed the NCAA Tournament: UNC 3, Duke 1

[snowdenscold]

I used to feel they were almost equal. A season of excellence and a weekend of excitement. But that was before with the home and away schedules that resulted in equal and fair schedules for each team. With the new 12 team ACC and the unbalanced scheduling the regular season title has lost some of it's luster.

I can't argue with that.

[Vincetaylor]

I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.

5%? Really? Like I said, that's absurd.

[Reilly]

Vince, do you understand compound probabilities? Read the posts above, esp. the one from sage .... even *not* including Clemson as a sure win, and *even* counting every game as a 50/50 proposition (which it is not, given Duke's strength), the odds we would at least tie for the ACC regular season title was 84%. That's pure math. It's not my or your analysis of b'ball. It is just saying every game is coin flip, we still had an 84% chance going into tonight. That meant there was a 16% chance we would not ... or a 5% (slightly more, actually, given Clemson was 91% not 100%) using kenpom's numbers.

[-bdbd]

I will certainly be among the biggest of the Terp and 'noles fans this week.

But it sure feels like it may come down to that last game.... Hmm.
That's be ok by me -- bring em on!

:):D:rolleyes::eek:

.
.
.
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Go Terps!! Go 'noles!!

[Vincetaylor]

Vince, do you understand compound probabilities? Read the posts above, esp. the one from sage .... even *not* including Clemson as a sure win, and *even* counting every game as a 50/50 proposition (which it is not, given Duke's strength), the odds we would at least tie for the ACC regular season title was 84%. That's pure math. It's not my or your analysis of b'ball. It is just saying every game is coin flip, we still had an 84% chance going into tonight. That meant there was a 16% chance we would not ... or a 5% (slightly more, actually, given Clemson was 91% not 100%) using kenpom's numbers.

Uhhh. I have an MBA. Stats are basic stuff. There is a lot more to predicting outcomes in ACC basketball than stats. I trust my 30+ years of watching ACC basketball over some statisticians any day of the week. Everybody would be rich if you could always count on the probability.

[gofurman]

"decent chance" ... about 5% chance using current kenpom numbers (and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win) .... stranger things have happened ... glad the 95% probability is on our side ....

I don't see the 95% thing. Granted I am posting after VT but say KenPom says 70% now? I dont' know what it is now but I see it is 50/50 ... Assuming UNC beats Md - they are leading at halftm... FSU will be some tough but much easier wout Singleton.. Then its a one game deal at UNC.

[Reilly]

If UNC beats MD, and if UNC beats FSU, and if Duke beats Clemson, then it is 50/50 at that point (assuming you give UNC a 50% shot at beating Duke, and Duke a 50% shot at beating UNC).

The 5% number came from using kenpom's numbers, and, most importantly, *before* Duke lost to VT, and *before* assuming UNC would beat MD and @ FSU.

I used kenpom's numbers and assumed a win over Clemson and got the 95% (again, before VT, before it looks like UNC will beat MD -- those hadn't happened yet). Sagegrouse simply pegged every game at 50/50 and the math was still 84% Duke would garner at least a tie for the regular season title.

[Troublemaker]

Hmm, if UNC hangs on against MD here (and there is no chance that they blow this lead... nope, none whatsoever), then it appears there are no scenarios where the Duke/UNC game won't be for the #1 seed in the ACC tourney.

Because, no matter who finishes 3rd in the ACC (FSU or VT), UNC will win the tiebreaker against Duke since we are 0-1 against either 3rd place team.

And the Clemson game at Cameron doesn't even matter to the ACC standings (it matters to Duke for many OTHERS reasons, of course!) since a win at UNC would mean we sweep which would mean we win the tiebreaker regardless.

So, yeah. It's okay, though. I wasn't really planning on our boys losing in Chapel Hill anyway. It was going to be a must-win regardless.

Beat Clemson, beat UNC. That's the plan!