The Chase for a #1 Seed

[HCheek37]

With less than 3 weeks until selection Sunday I feel we should start to gauge the chances of the teams who may be placed on the top lines.

Obviously there are many games and conference tourneys to be played but there seems to be an agreement that the following 7 teams have a chance for a #1 seed

% according to Lunardi
Ohio St. 80%
Pittsburgh 70%
Duke 65%
Texas 60%
Kansas 60%
San Diego State 20%
BYU 20%

and perhaps Notre Dame and Purdue (both in need of a undefeated run to finish the season/conf tourney)

BYU and San Diego State play this Saturday in what is probably an elimination game for a #1 seed unless the others stated fall apart.

The other interesting tidbit to follow here is the placement of each team in a respective region (Anaheim, Newark, New Orleans, and San Antonio). Ohio St/Pittsburgh/Duke all would be regionally aligned to go to Newark while Texas/Kansas would be sent to San Antonio if they were given seeding priority. BYU/San Diego St would obviously be aligned with Anaheim.

[HCheek37]

Here's what the different prognosticators have currently projected:

Lunardi (ESPN)
Ohio St - Newark
Pittsburgh - New Orleans
Duke - San Antonio
Texas - Anaheim

(The placements are odd because he has Duke as his 4th #1 seed which means Texas should get preference and go to San Antonio)

Glockner (SI)
Pittsburgh - Newark
Ohio St - New Orleans
Kansas - San Antonio
Duke - Anaheim

Palm (CBS)
Hasn't updated as of this post

[JasonEvans]

% according to Lunardi
Ohio St. 80%
Pittsburgh 70%
Duke 65%
Texas 60%
Kansas 60%
San Diego State 20%
BYU 20%

and perhaps Notre Dame and Purdue (both in need of a undefeated run to finish the season/conf tourney)

Those percentages total up to 375%, which is 25% short of where you need to be (4 seeds x 100% chance for each = 400%).

Does that mean that he gives Notre Dame and/or Purdue a 25% chance of going undefeated and getting into the #1 seed race? Seems very unlikely to me.

I would raised Ohio St, Pitt, and Duke's percentages a bit. I think all three of those teams probably need to lose twice in order to get off the #1 line. Remember that Texas and Kansas cannot both go undefeated and that BYU and SDSU have at least 2 losses left between the two of them.

-Jason "fun exercise -- but this is still just a WAG at this point" Evans

[DallasDevil]

Here's what the different prognosticators have currently projected:

Lunardi (ESPN)
Ohio St - Newark
Pittsburgh - New Orleans
Duke - San Antonio
Texas - Anaheim

(The placements are odd because he has Duke as his 4th #1 seed which means Texas should get preference and go to San Antonio)

Glockner (SI)
Pittsburgh - Newark
Ohio St - New Orleans
Kansas - San Antonio
Duke - Anaheim

Palm (CBS)
Hasn't updated as of this post

Palm, in keeping with the cbssports anti-Duke bias, now has
Pittsburgh - Newark
Ohio St - New Orleans
Kansas-San Antonio
SDSU - Anaheim
with Duke the 2 seed in the San Antonio bracket.

[Olympic Fan]

Basically, Duke is facing two issues: Will Duke earn a No. 1 seed and if so, which region will they end up in?

It's funny, but if the Devils want to play in Newark, their chances are probably better as a 2 seed.

As for the first issue, what last week did was put Duke's fate back in its own hands. I agree with the pundits that as of this time a week ago, Duke was a No. 2 seed and needed help to get to the No. 1 line. Well, the Devils got that help from the likes of Kansas State, St. John's, Nebraska and Purdue.

As of today, Duke is a No. 1 seed and if the Devils win out, it really doesn't matter what anybody else does -- Duke will be a No. 1 seed when the tourney is selected.

In the real world, almost all the No. 1 contenders will suffer another loss or two. That includes Duke -- games at VPI and UNC will be tough and the tournament offers perils. But overall, I agree with Jason that Duke would probably survive one more loss (as long as it's not a bad one in the first round of the ACC Tournament) and keep a No. 1.

Getting the No. 1 in Newark is going to be a lot tougher. I don't understand Lunardi's placement of Duke in San Antonio -- either Texas or Kansas (I think one of the two, but not both, will be a No. 1) ought to be there. Ohio State and Pitt appear to be the best candidates to wind up in Newark.

But here's a key point -- Duke is closer to New Orleans (771 miles) than either Ohio State (801 miles) or Pittsburgh (922 miles). Unless there is a pressing need to do otherwise, I think New Orleans is a more likely regional than Anaheim.

One more issue to watch down the stretch -- the two teams that will be sent to the subregional in Charlotte. With the pod system, it will he the two highest seeded teams closest to Charlotte, regardless of regional assigment.

Right now, that's (1) Duke; (2) Georgetown (the Hoyas can't play on their homecourt in Washington); and (3) North Carolina. I don't see any other viable candidates (teams that will be seeded 1-4) that should be in Charlotte.

I feel pretty comfortable that Duke is still a lock for Charlotte. The question is whether UNC can catch Georgetown and also get a trip to the Queen City? I think it's more likely that the Heels wind up in Washington (maybe Tampa), but with a strong finish (including a win over Duke), I guess Charlotte is possible.

I keep saying, it won't be anything like 2005 ... more like Greensboro in 2009, when Duke and UNC were in the same building. Still, I urge Duke fans to make sure they've bought up as many of the public sale tickets as possible. If UNC does wind up there, maybe we can do to them what they did to us in '05.

[-bdbd]

% according to Lunardi
Ohio St. 80%
Pittsburgh 70%
Duke 65%
Texas 60%
Kansas 60%
San Diego State 20%
BYU 20%
and perhaps Notre Dame and Purdue (both in need of a undefeated run to finish the season/conf tourney)

The other interesting tidbit to follow here is the placement of each team in a respective region (Anaheim, Newark, New Orleans, and San Antonio). Ohio St/Pittsburgh/Duke all would be regionally aligned to go to Newark while Texas/Kansas would be sent to San Antonio if they were given seeding priority. BYU/San Diego St would obviously be aligned with Anaheim.

I agree with Jason that KA and TX should come down (to about 50% each) given the guarantee that one of them, at a minimum, gets another defeat. And I see OSU, Pitt and Duke a little higher - maybe 85-75-70. And we have to leave room for "the others," like ND, etc.

As for locales, for the regionals I'd expect the committee to look to put the top-4 collectively the closest to their home sites. So Pitt is very strong for Newark, and OSU or Duke to N'orleans. I see one of TX/KA in San Antonio, and then either OSU or Duke (or BYU/SDSU, ND) in LA. As a Duke fan I don't think we really care about LA vs New Orleans -- we might actually have more fans in the southern Cal area (though a 2-seeded SDSU fanbase might be tough in LA)...

As for the sub-regional, I don't see why we wouldn't expect UNC AND Duke in Charlotte. My understanding is that the NCAA tries to keep the top-16 teams as near as possible to their home sites. Since UNC seems a likely top-4 seed at this point - we can all hope otherwise... - though they won't be guaranteed Charlotte, there don't seem to be a lot of top-4-seed teams near enough to Charlotte to keep NC away. Unfortunately. Sorry Olympic, but there's no reason all three of us don't end up in the Queen City for the Mar. 18 weekend. I see GT as a #3 and NC as a #4 right now, but who knows??!

Like was said, since Duke is a near-lock for Charlotte, let's get the Duke fans busy buying up those public tickets for that sub-regional NOW! '05 was different in that the NC fans knew weeks ahead that they were a lock to land there and could gobble up all the Charlotte sub-regional tix. I see them being a bit more cautious this time around.


-BD "Other than Newark I don't really care where we might go for regionals" BD

[Acymetric]

I agree with Jason that KA and TX should come down (to about 50% each) given the guarantee that one of them, at a minimum, gets another defeat. And I see OSU, Pitt and Duke a little higher - maybe 85-75-70. And we have to leave room for "the others," like ND, etc.

As for locales, for the regionals I'd expect the committee to look to put the top-4 collectively the closest to their home sites. So Pitt is very strong for Newark, and OSU or Duke to N'orleans. I see one of TX/KA in San Antonio, and then either OSU or Duke (or BYU/SDSU, ND) in LA. As a Duke fan I don't think we really care about LA vs New Orleans -- we might actually have more fans in the southern Cal area...

As for the sub-regional, I don't see why we wouldn't expect UNC AND Duke in Charlotte. My understanding is that the NCAA tries to keep the top-16 teams as near as possible to their home sites. Since UNC seems a likely top-4 seed at this point - we can all hope otherwise... - though they won't be guaranteed Charlotte, there don't seem to be a lot of top-4-seed teams near enough to Charlotte to keep NC away. Unfortunately.

Like was said, since Duke is a near-lock for Charlotte, let's get the Duke fans busy buying up those public tickets for that sub-regional NOW! ('05 was different in that the NC fans knew weeks ahead that they were a lock to land there and could gobble up Charlotte sub-regional tix. I see them being a bit more cautious this time around.)


-BD "Other than Newark I don't really care where we might go for regionals" BD

unc in Charlotte would be a nightmare scenario...that stadium would be packed with unc fans cheering against us. Lets hope for a big slide to end the year for them so they get shipped out...of course I was hoping for a slide anyway :cool:

[DallasDevil]

I agree with Jason that KA and TX should come down (to about 50% each) given the guarantee that one of them, at a minimum, gets another defeat. And I see OSU, Pitt and Duke a little higher - maybe 85-75-70. And we have to leave room for "the others," like ND, etc.

As for locales, for the regionals I'd expect the committee to look to put the top-4 collectively the closest to their home sites. So Pitt is very strong for Newark, and OSU or Duke to N'orleans. I see one of TX/KA in San Antonio, and then either OSU or Duke (or BYU/SDSU, ND) in LA. As a Duke fan I don't think we really care about LA vs New Orleans -- we might actually have more fans in the southern Cal area (though a 2-seeded SDSU fanbase might be tough in LA)...

As for the sub-regional, I don't see why we wouldn't expect UNC AND Duke in Charlotte. My understanding is that the NCAA tries to keep the top-16 teams as near as possible to their home sites. Since UNC seems a likely top-4 seed at this point - we can all hope otherwise... - though they won't be guaranteed Charlotte, there don't seem to be a lot of top-4-seed teams near enough to Charlotte to keep NC away. Unfortunately. Sorry Olympic, but there's no reason all three of us don't end up in the Queen City for the Mar. 18 weekend. I see GT as a #3 and NC as a #4 right now, but who knows??!

Like was said, since Duke is a near-lock for Charlotte, let's get the Duke fans busy buying up those public tickets for that sub-regional NOW! '05 was different in that the NC fans knew weeks ahead that they were a lock to land there and could gobble up all the Charlotte sub-regional tix. I see them being a bit more cautious this time around.


-BD "Other than Newark I don't really care where we might go for regionals" BD

A quick clarification: Because each site hosts only 8 teams, there can only be two teams seeded 1-4 at any given first weekend site. For example, a site could host the 1, 8, 9, and 16 seed from one region and the 2, 7, 10, and 15 from another. Preference is given to the higher seed, not to which school is closest to the site. Duke as a 1 or 2 seed would have first priority to Charlotte. That means only one of Georgetown or Carolina could go to Charlotte, with the determining factor being whichever school has the highest "true" seed. So, if Georgetown is seen by the selection committee as the better team, they would have priority and Carolina would go elsewhere.

[-bdbd]

A quick clarification: Because each site hosts only 8 teams, there can only be two teams seeded 1-4 at any given first weekend site. For example, a site could host the 1, 8, 9, and 16 seed from one region and the 2, 7, 10, and 15 from another. Preference is given to the higher seed, not to which school is closest to the site. Duke as a 1 or 2 seed would have first priority to Charlotte. That means only one of Georgetown or Carolina could go to Charlotte, with the determining factor being whichever school has the highest "true" seed. So, if Georgetown is seen by the selection committee as the better team, they would have priority and Carolina would go elsewhere.

Thanks Dallas. You are right - I didn't realize it previously, but just caught it looking at the CNN projections. Thanks. So, yes, Olympic would be right that only two of Duke, Georgetown, UNC could be there -- assuming all 3 were seeded in the top-16 overall. My bad. Now let's just pray they don't put NC in Charlotte as a lower seed with G'town (perhaps as a 5, along with GT at #4...) Ugh!! :(


BTW, CNN/SI has NC as a 5-seed in Tampa - along with a #4 St Johns.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/02/21/bracket.watch/index.html?eref=sihp

[wilson]

BTW, CNN/SI has NC as a 5-seed in Tampa - along with a #4 St Johns.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/02/21/bracket.watch/index.html?eref=sihpThat'd be a hell of a matchup. The Johnnies' length, athleticism, and experience might well give the heels fits.

[MIKESJ73]

Anyone else think St. Johns could end up a #2 seed? They have 4 games left:

Depaul 7-19
@Villanova - haven't looked good lately (lost 5 of 9 barely beating SH and Depaul)
@ Seton Hall 11-16
South Florida 8-20

First Round bye in the BE tourney, then home court advantage.

If they win out, would they be a #2 seed?

[Channing]

That'd be a hell of a matchup. The Johnnies' length, athleticism, and experience might well give the heels fits.

would rather see UNC matched against SU, Baylor, or WVU (or any other team that plays a zone all year, and will have no trouble packing it in against UNC).

[wilson]

would rather see UNC matched against SU, Baylor, or WVU (or any other team that plays a zone all year, and will have no trouble packing it in against UNC).Good call. The heels (still) can't shoot, and I don't trust them to have the patience or mental fortitude to properly pick a zone apart.

[superdave]

I'm not sure I have a strong preference as to location (except Anaheim) or #1 vs. #2 seed, as long as the top 3 other seeds in our bracket are not monsters. I'd hate to be matched up across from Kansas because they seem to be really athletic. Maybe both SDSU and BYU get #2 seeds and we got one of them (although I hope BYU loses out so Jimmer gets no NPOY votes....).

[Kedsy]

Anyone else think St. Johns could end up a #2 seed? They have 4 games left:

Depaul 7-19
@Villanova - haven't looked good lately (lost 5 of 9 barely beating SH and Depaul)
@ Seton Hall 11-16
South Florida 8-20

First Round bye in the BE tourney, then home court advantage.

If they win out, would they be a #2 seed?

Even if they win out, they'd have 9 losses including getting beat by St. Bonaventure (at home) and Fordham. I know they play in a tough conference, but that doesn't sound like the resume of a #2 seed. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'd bet there has never been a #2 seed with that many losses.

[wilson]

I'd bet there has never been a #2 seed with that many losses.You're probably right, but I don't think it's outlandish to think St. John's could get a #2. The overall parity of this season has wrought considerable volatility in rankings and the general perceptions of teams. If they win the Big East tournament (and they'd probably need a bit of help from somewhere else), the Johnnies might have an outside shot at a #2, although I think a 3 or 4 is more likely and probably more appropriate (still quite an accomplishment in light of the program's recent state).

[SCMatt33]

But here's a key point -- Duke is closer to New Orleans (771 miles) than either Ohio State (801 miles) or Pittsburgh (922 miles). Unless there is a pressing need to do otherwise, I think New Orleans is a more likely regional than Anaheim.

This sort of thing is actually irrelevant. Teams are placed into the bracket one at a time. Let's say for instance that Ohio St. is #1 overall, Pitt #2, and Duke #3. Ohio State will get placed first, going to Newark as it's closest region. Pitt would go in next and be sent to New Orleans, as it will then be the closest available region. Duke will be third and get placed in San Antonio as it is the closest available region for Duke. They won't look at Pitt and Duke together, decide that Duke is closer to New Orleans than Pitt so they would send them there. BTW, even if they did that, Duke is also closer to San Antonio than Pitt, so they could justify either.

The same thing will be true for Subregionals. It has been mentioned in other places, but there are several other teams that could block UNC out of Charlotte, most notably Georgetown. Trying to force teams to travel less overall has unofficially been replaced with having the top teams travel less. Look at 2006 and 2008 as examples. In 2006 UNC could have been placed in Greensboro with Duke as a 3 seed, but Tennessee as a 2 seed, was placed into the bracket first. Greensboro was the closest, and UNC was locked out. The same thing happened in 2008. Duke could have gone to Raleigh as a 2 seed, but Georgetown was higher on the S-Curve and got first preference (they were ineligible to play in DC as hosts, which is the case this year as well). I know many are aware of how this stuff works, but it's always worth reiterating.

[1 24 90]

Even if they win out, they'd have 9 losses including getting beat by St. Bonaventure (at home) and Fordham. I know they play in a tough conference, but that doesn't sound like the resume of a #2 seed. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'd bet there has never been a #2 seed with that many losses.

Wasn't Duke a #2 seed in 1997 with a 23-8 record before they won the opening round and lost to Providence in the 2nd round? I think they ended that year 24-9.

I found this after a quick search:

1996-1997 Season
Overall ACC (Tourn) NCAA Final AP
24-9 12-4 (0-1) 1-1 #8

[Olympic Fan]

unc in Charlotte would be a nightmare scenario...that stadium would be packed with unc fans cheering against us.

Why do people keep saying this - it's not true!

What happened in 2005 was a fluke -- predicated on UNC being a top-ranked team all year, knowing they were going to end up in Charlotte, and their fans buying up all the tickets. Duke never expected to be in Charlotte (Wake was the second best ACC team through most of the year) and only Wake's ACC Tournament flop (after Chris Paul nut-punched Julius Hodge) and Duke's unexpected title run in Washington stole the other seeded spot in Charlotte. By that time, there just weren't many tickets available for Duke fans.

It's a totally different situation this year -- Duke has been locked into Charlotte for a long time and many, many Duke fans have bought tickets. UNC has only sniffed a chance to land in Charlotte in the last couple of weeks (and even now, it's a longshot).

When the pairings are announced, each participating school will get 550 tickets. That's the base that UNC fans would have to build on. Two or three of the teams assigned to Charlotte will return a couple of hundred tickets and UNC fans would have an equal chance with everybody else of getting those.

The point is, there will be more Duke fans at the games in Charlotte than UNC fans -- maybe a LOT more. Yeah, there might be a bunch of obnoxious Holes at the shootaround before the first game, but that's hardly a problem. Besides, for all the "nightmare" talk about Charlotte in 2005, Duke did win twice there and did have a homecourt advantage in a tough second-round game with Miss State.

We had the same situation in Greensboro two years ago and there was NO problem with Carolina fans heckling Duke fans.

I say, bring 'em on. Duke fans will outnumber UNC fans in Charlotte this time and we can do to them what they did to us.

But, really, I expect Georgetown to be the other seeded team in Charlotte. UNC goes to Washington or Tampa.

PS I respect Jerry Palm as much as anybody, but I have no clue as to what he's thinking with San Diegio State as a No. 1 seed. I know that he always insists that his seeding projections are based on the situation TODAY and not a projection of how they come out. So how can he make SDSU a 1 in view of:

(1) San Diego State is currently second (to BYU) in the Mountain West Conference.
(2) San Diego State is No. 4 in the RPI -- two places behind No. 2 BYU.

Seriously, how can he project the committee to give second-place team with a worse RPI a No. 1 seed over the first-place team with a better RPI in its own conference?

(3) He knows as well as anybody that the human polls are a better predictor of the top seeds than the RPI -- in fact, that's where I first heard it (and he's right).

San Diego State might be able to win a No. 1 seed by winning out, but as of today, you CAN'T project them over BYU.

And despite the fact that SDSU is two spots ahead of No. 6 Duke in the RPI, their profile is hardly better -- they are 0-1 against the top 25, 4-1 against the top 50 and 11-1 against the top 100; Duke is 1-1 against the top 25, 6-2 against the top 50 and 14-2 against the top 100. For all the complaints about the top teams Duke hasn't played, they've played more games (and have more wins) against the top 25, top 50 and top 100 than San Diego State.

I am very confident that as of today, Duke is a No. 1 seed. Where, I don't know, but for reasons I postred above, I think if the field was set today, Duke would be in the New Orleans regional.

[HCheek37]

Texas and Ohio St. held serve at home last night. Both teams continue to look like respective #1 seeds in their conference tournaments.

Tonight we have Duke (obviously) and a bunch of the fringe #1 seed contenders taking the court in BYU, Purdue, ND, Georgetown, and Wisky.

All of these games should be interesting....Wisconsin and Purdue have been iffy on the road while Indiana and Michigan have played better as of late. Notre Dame plays Providence who has home wins over Villanova and Louisville. Lastly BYU plays Colorado State, a team in desperation mode as they cling to the bubble.

KenPom has everyone as favorites -
Notre Dame 84-79 (69%)
Wisky 62-57 (71%)
Georgetown 68-62 (73%)
Purdue 73-65 (80%)
Duke 77-63 (91%)
BYU 85-68 (93%)

[HCheek37]

Those percentages total up to 375%, which is 25% short of where you need to be (4 seeds x 100% chance for each = 400%).

Does that mean that he gives Notre Dame and/or Purdue a 25% chance of going undefeated and getting into the #1 seed race? Seems very unlikely to me.

I would raised Ohio St, Pitt, and Duke's percentages a bit. I think all three of those teams probably need to lose twice in order to get off the #1 line. Remember that Texas and Kansas cannot both go undefeated and that BYU and SDSU have at least 2 losses left between the two of them.

-Jason "fun exercise -- but this is still just a WAG at this point" Evans

Sorry I should have included the full table. He has Purdue at 10%, Notre Dame at 5% each with the field being a 10% longshot. I'm guessing the field includes teams like Wisconsin (win out including @ Ohio St and Big 10 tourney), Georgetown, etc.