This Week in the ACC: 2/21-2/27

[pfrduke]

Does anyone outside of Duke, UNC, and FSU actually want to make the tournament? Because it's sure hard to tell with the way teams have been playing. Outside of those three teams, only Maryland has been able to win as many as 3 conference games in a row - no one else can get any sustained momentum as they keep trading wins and losses. Virginia Tech, Maryland, Clemson, and BC can still play their way into the tournament, but they have to stop losing.

Monday is dark.

Tuesday gives us a game that Virginia Tech simply can't lose. They travel to Wake Forest, losers of 15 of their last 17, including 5 homes losses by an average of 17.5 points a game. The Hokies mopped the floor with Wake in Blacksburg, winning by 29.

[257]Wake Forest hosts [30]Virginia Tech

Wednesday is a busy day, with 4 conference matchups and a non-conference battle of top 25 opponents. Starting there first, Duke hosts Temple during its "off" week, and hopes to fare far better than it did in the last "off" week game. Temple, for its part, is riding an 8-game winning streak that's put it within a half game of Xavier for the A-10 lead. In conference, Maryland gets their first chance for a statement win down the stretch, hosting Florida State. In reality, it's probably not all that much of a statement - FSU is just 3-3 on the road, with the wins at Miami, Wake, and Georgia Tech, and the losses all by double digits. Plus, if you believe Pomeroy's assessment (and I don't, at least not with regard to Maryland), the Terps are actually the better team and a 77% favorite. But it would still be a big win for the Terps in their drive toward a bid. UNC travels down Tobacco Road to take on NC State - the Pack has been frisky of late, knocking off Clemson in Raleigh and then taking Maryland right down to the wire in the Comcast Center (it was 71-71 before the Terps finished things off on a 16-9 run). BC hosts Miami, a must-win game for the Eagles, who have the easiest road to 10 conference wins among the middle of the pack teams. And in the "teams unlikely to have any postseason" category, Virginia travels to Georgia Tech.

[1]Duke hosts [34]Temple
[96]Georgia Tech hosts [113]Virginia
[79]NC State hosts [12]North Carolina
[70]Boston College hosts [68]Miami
[22]Maryland hosts [40]Florida State

Thursday is dark.

Friday is dark.

Saturday Another busy Saturday in the ACC, with 5 conference matchups on tap. Starting with the noon game, BC heads down to Charlottesville, hoping their day in the JPJ is more like Maryland's and less like Clemson's and Virginia Tech's. They're all must-wins from here on out for the Eagles. Battle Florida part II is in Tallahassee - the game in Coral Gables was a very close, low scoring affair, but FSU has home court this time around, and should be able to win with a little more comfort. NC State hopes to solidfy its chances for at least some post-season bid (NIT, CIT, CBI) with a home date against Georgia Tech. Clemson hosts Wake Forest in what should be a comfortable victory - as bad as Wake is at home, the Deacs are much worse on the road. And then the nightcap - a big battle in Blacksburg as the Hokies host Duke with their last chance for a marquee win before the ACCT. A loss isn't devastating, but it could once again leave Virginia Tech with a bubble resume wholly lacking in impressive victories. For Duke, Carolina continues to breath down the Devils' necks for top billing in the ACC, and they can't afford a slip up.

[113]Virginia hosts [70]Boston College
[40]Florida State hosts [68]Miami
[79]NC State hosts [96]Georgia Tech
[36]Clemson hosts [248]Wake Forest
[30]Virginia Tech hosts [1]Duke

Sunday sends Maryland to Chapel Hill where they hope to cap off a big late-season week. Wins against Florida State and UNC could do wonders for the Terps' resume down the stretch. For its part, depending on the results of Wednesday and Saturday play, UNC could be playing for a tie for first.

[12]North Carolina hosts [22]Maryland

[Bob Green]

Duke controls their own destiny by having a one game lead over Carolina in the ACC regular season standings so all we have to do is win. However, it would be nice to gain a little breathing room with a Carolina loss. After the Tar Heels less than inspiring performance against Boston College, their games this week against State and Maryland have to be considered toss ups. Ken Pomeroy gives them a 72% chance to win both games and predicts 76-70 final scores. It wouldn't surprise me to see Gary Williams out coach Roy Williams and steal a road victory in Chapel Hill.

[ns7]

Duke controls their own destiny by having a one game lead over Carolina in the ACC regular season standings so all we have to do is win. However, it would be nice to gain a little breathing room with a Carolina loss. After the Tar Heels less than inspiring performance against Boston College, their games this week against State and Maryland have to be considered toss ups. Ken Pomeroy gives them a 72% chance to win both games and predicts 76-70 final scores. It wouldn't surprise me to see Gary Williams out coach Roy Williams and steal a road victory in Chapel Hill.

I just can't figure out Maryland. They seem to be the ultimate "good bad team"--they really beat up on all the bad teams they've played but lose somewhat close (but not too close) games against the good teams. All in all, it drives up their computer rating without them really having a win of note (unless you count beating PSU as one).

And yes, I'd love to see Gary steal one on the road.

[gw67]

In eight of their ten losses they have played very competitively and with some clutch play at the end of several of these games (shooting free throws, taking care of the ball and making an average % of shots at the end) they could have won an additional 3-4 games; however, the players Williams counted on at the end of the games (Tucker, Mosley, Bowie) were simply not capable of getting them over the hump in these games. Against lesser opponents they play well throughout the entire game and there is no need for good play at the end. Yesterday might have been the first time this year that the Terps made a run at the end to open up the game and win it. In recent games, they have shot free throws better and have been a better offensive team (and worse defensive team). The reason is the better play in the backcourt, primarily by freshmen rather than seniors. As shown by Pomeroy, they are capable of playing good basketball; however, Maryland’s record this year is deserved.

gw67

[Slackerb]

The ACC update didn't even mention that State plays UNC?

First of two big games for UNC this week.

[-jk]

The ACC update didn't even mention that State plays UNC?

First of two big games for UNC this week.

Looks like Julian fell asleep at the switch, though he did link to game stories. I'll let him know.

Thanks,

-jk

[Bob Green]

Will State force Carolina to make perimeter shots? One can only hope. Here is another decent article from Dan Wiederer that discusses the Tar Heels' struggles:

http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011/02/23/1073378?sac=Sports

Hopefully, Sidney Lowe watched tape of the Boston College game. Tracy Smith and C.J. Leslie need strong performances to contain Zeller and Henson inside. The Fayetteville Observer also has a position by position breakdown:

http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011/02/23/1073293?sac=Sports

State's Richard Howell will miss the game with a head injury.

[camion]

Will State force Carolina to make perimeter shots? One can only hope. Here is another decent article from Dan Wiederer that discusses the Tar Heels' struggles:

http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011/02/23/1073378?sac=Sports

Hopefully, Sidney Lowe watched tape of the Boston College game. Tracy Smith and C.J. Leslie need strong performances to contain Zeller and Henson inside. The Fayetteville Observer also has a position by position breakdown:

http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011/02/23/1073293?sac=Sports

State's Richard Howell will miss the game with a head injury.

I am doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on defense to deny UNC the interior.

I am also doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on offense to deny UNC numerous runouts.

[Indoor66]

I am doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on defense to deny UNC the interior.

I am also doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on offense to deny UNC numerous runouts.

I agree with you on this. State appears to have some horses but a poor jockey.

[Bob Green]

State started fast and led 19-9 but Carolina has a 31-29 halftime lead. The Wolfpack missed a lot of 3-pointers (2-11) in the first half so they need to look inside more. Carolina shot 3-8 from behind the 3-point line. Strickland (9 points) and Marshall (7 points) are leading the way for the Tar Heels. Harrison Barnes is 0-6 from the field. Tracy Smith has 8 points for State.

[loran16]

I want to just say, the refs in this game are brutal. They're missing foul calls all over the place, culminating in a sequence a second ago where State shoves Henson 5 feet, then the refs miss a Henson goaltend, then Banres is given a bail out foul instead of a walk.

Meanwhile they just called a goaltend on a rebound.

(Oh and an intentional foul earlier despite the hand being ON THE FREAKING BALL. Unbelievable.)

[loran16]

I hate to be the guy who complains about the refs. But this is just beyond terrible. UNC mugs Tracy Smith, no call.

I thought this was an NC State home game!

[DBFAN]

So I am watching the State and UNC game. State inserts this big guy that Carolina seems to have trouble with. Zeller comes back in and immediately starts flopping and falling down, and the refs buy it hook line and sinker They show a replay of one and of course Giminiski and Raycom who just love the heels, says this is obviously not a fake by Zeller. It just angers me so much to watch Raycom foam at the mouth over UNC. Don't even get me started about the Tech called in the first half.

[Bob Green]

I hate to be the guy who complains about the refs. But this is just beyond terrible. UNC mugs Tracy Smith, no call.

I thought this was an NC State home game!

Sidney Lowe just got T'd Up after Henson and Zeller team up to mug Tracy Smith once again.

[Duvall]

I hate to be the guy who complains about the refs. But this is just beyond terrible. UNC mugs Tracy Smith, no call.

I thought this was an NC State home game!

Forget it, loran. It's ACC basketball.

[Newton_14]

Forget it, loran. It's ACC basketball.

Agree. The Harrow turnover when State had the 3 on 2 break down 5 points was the killer. HB then did his normal "I must hit a 3 near the end of the game" deal, and boom they are down 8 instead of 3 with 2 minutes to go. That was the ball game right there.

The thing is, there was no need for Harrow to make that pass. All he had to do was drive the ball. Leslie would have been open trailing the play.

Big sigh....

[loran16]

Mind you, BC and NC State have shown that UNC's O is very easy to beat.

Remember, State and BC have the 2nd and 3rd worst defenses in the ACC. But both have done a good job on UNC, though UNC did shoot above average if you include the FTs at the end.

BC was closer, because well, they're well coached. Their players can execute a strategy. State's players would randomly stop doubling the big guys, fall for fakes on 3 pointers, and let up too many transition baskets.

If Duke learns from this obviously to double every guy in the post and let them take 3s, they will win.

[JasonEvans]

Speaking of BC, they sure blew it tonight. Losing to Miami at home -- so much for their hopes for an NCAA bid. They were 6-6 with 3 very winnable games and a game at Va Tech that was not impossible for them. 9-7 or even 10-6 seemed like a possibility. Ahh well. Another ACC bubble team goes poop.

--Jason "anyone in the conference want to play in the post-season?" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Speaking of BC, they sure blew it tonight. Losing to Miami at home -- so much for their hopes for an NCAA bid. They were 6-6 with 3 very winnable games and a game at Va Tech that was not impossible for them. 9-7 or even 10-6 seemed like a possibility. Ahh well. Another ACC bubble team goes poop.

--Jason "anyone in the conference want to play in the post-season?" Evans

Oh, I forgot to mention that Maryland got a big win over FSU. The Terps go to Chapel Hill this weekend with a simple mandate... win, and you will go dancing (so long as you don't so something idiotic, like lose at home to Virginia).

Here's to them pulling it off!! We know Gary's bunch can make it hard on Carolina to score... but can the Terps offense find a way to get to the 70-something points they will need to win?

-Jason "rooting for Gary... it ain't easy" Evans

[loran16]

Oh, I forgot to mention that Maryland got a big win over FSU. The Terps go to Chapel Hill this weekend with a simple mandate... win, and you will go dancing (so long as you don't so something idiotic, like lose at home to Virginia).

Here's to them pulling it off!! We know Gary's bunch can make it hard on Carolina to score... but can the Terps offense find a way to get to the 70-something points they will need to win?

-Jason "rooting for Gary... it ain't easy" Evans

I'm going to say yes. Even though it's AT Carolina, so was BC. Meanwhile, Maryland actually has the personnel necessary to perform the ideal D on Carolina....a D that can handle the inside man, but has issues with the outside shot. And unlike BC and NC State, Maryland has a good D.

You're right, Maryland's issue will be offensively, but I feel that BC and NC State DIDNT execute the defense perfectly and MD will. That'll be enough that even mediocre O should be enough for UMD to win.

[Olympic Fan]

Agree, BC shot itself in the foot ... Miami at home was one they almost had to win.

Saturday is make or break time for Maryland and Virginia Tech. I think the Hokies still have an outside shot if they lose to Duke ... and I don't think the Terps are in even if they beat UNC, but I do think the Hokies are in if they beat Duke and Maryland is out if they lose to UNC.

Notice that after tonight's action, Lunardi had both Clemson and BC in his first four teams out. Really, the bubble is so soft that it's hard to knock out anybody. Everybody else vying for a bid is stumbling too.

PS Not saying they are in trouble, but I'm starting to wonder how the committee is going to view FSU. They just don't look very good without Singleton. I know they are just 1-1 since he got hurt (although the one win was at woeful Wake Forest), but I'm sure the committee will be watching closely as they finish with Miami and UNC at home, plus NC State on the road. If they stumble too badly, it could negate their solid pre-Singleton-injury resume.

[gw67]

Posters whom I respect are crossing their fingers that Maryland can play a good game against UNC and they conclude that the Terps have a chance if they can only score 70 points because they are offensively challenged. I expect that Maryland will give the Heels a good game and that they have a good chance to score at least 70 points (they average 78 ppg for the season and a little less in ACC games). Maryland is somewhat like the player who is a “scorer” not a “shooter”. They get their points inside and off turnovers but do not have players who are good jump shooters (at least not until recent games). Their principal problem all year has been finishing off games where they had a lead throughout the game (Pitt, Illinois, Nova, BC, and Temple). They relied on their upperclassmen at the end of these games and they were unable to hold the leads (“warning track power” – an apt description by Dan Bonner). The result is a team that is NIT bound but has played better basketball than many teams who will likely make the NCAAT (see Pomeroy).

Although it is too late to make a difference, a couple of things have happened recently that have made the Terps a better offensive team. First, Stoglin is playing more minutes and he and the other freshmen point guard, Howard, have finally begun to fit in after 20+ games. Stoglin, in fact is playing like a 1st team All ACC player the last four ACC games (I know, you think I’m crazy but see his stats below.) The other difference is the emergence of Dino Gregory as a reliable player late in his career. The Maryland internet fans have bashed this youngster for 3-1/2 years but he has developed a nice 15-18 foot jump shot and gives a good effort defensively and on the boards for an undersized forward. These two players are the complementary scorers to Williams that the Terps have needed all year. Now the pressure is off Mosley, Bowie and Tucker and they can play defense and contribute in other ways and not be counted on for scoring.

Stoglin (last 4 ACC games) 20.3 ppg 6.5 apg 2.5 tpg 60% from field, 63% from 3-point and 90% from foul line

Gregory (last 4 ACC games) 14.8 ppg 7 rpg 55% from field, 80% from foul line

I like the Terps chances at UNC better than their chances at Miami. I may be wrong but I believe that they have never won in Miami.

gw67

[Slackerb]

Amazing how horrible the officiating in the UNC/State game was....

Smith was getting double-fouled on some plays and no call. Leslie would foul on the other end over the back with no call.

And that intentional foul....Lorenzo Brown I believe it was, had his hand on the Barnes and the other on the ball...and they called an intentional...

Was pretty wild.

[Bob Green]

Florida State picked up their 10th conference win by beating Miami 65-59. The Seminoles should make the tournament but a victory over UNC on March 2 would be a nice addition to their resume.

[Indoor66]

Florida State picked up their 10th conference win by beating Miami 65-59. The Seminoles should make the tournament but a victory over UNC on March 2 would be a nice addition to their resume.

And ours.... :cool:

[jv001]

Posters whom I respect are crossing their fingers that Maryland can play a good game against UNC and they conclude that the Terps have a chance if they can only score 70 points because they are offensively challenged. I expect that Maryland will give the Heels a good game and that they have a good chance to score at least 70 points (they average 78 ppg for the season and a little less in ACC games). Maryland is somewhat like the player who is a “scorer” not a “shooter”. They get their points inside and off turnovers but do not have players who are good jump shooters (at least not until recent games). Their principal problem all year has been finishing off games where they had a lead throughout the game (Pitt, Illinois, Nova, BC, and Temple). They relied on their upperclassmen at the end of these games and they were unable to hold the leads (“warning track power” – an apt description by Dan Bonner). The result is a team that is NIT bound but has played better basketball than many teams who will likely make the NCAAT (see Pomeroy).

Although it is too late to make a difference, a couple of things have happened recently that have made the Terps a better offensive team. First, Stoglin is playing more minutes and he and the other freshmen point guard, Howard, have finally begun to fit in after 20+ games. Stoglin, in fact is playing like a 1st team All ACC player the last four ACC games (I know, you think I’m crazy but see his stats below.) The other difference is the emergence of Dino Gregory as a reliable player late in his career. The Maryland internet fans have bashed this youngster for 3-1/2 years but he has developed a nice 15-18 foot jump shot and gives a good effort defensively and on the boards for an undersized forward. These two players are the complementary scorers to Williams that the Terps have needed all year. Now the pressure is off Mosley, Bowie and Tucker and they can play defense and contribute in other ways and not be counted on for scoring.

Stoglin (last 4 ACC games) 20.3 ppg 6.5 apg 2.5 tpg 60% from field, 63% from 3-point and 90% from foul line

Gregory (last 4 ACC games) 14.8 ppg 7 rpg 55% from field, 80% from foul lineI like the Terps chances at UNC better than their chances at Miami. I may be wrong but I believe that they have never won in Miami.

gw67

Thanks for the updates on Maryland. To beat the tarheels they will have to hit some outside shots. Being an inside scoring team does not bode well against henson and zeller. But your observations on Stogln and Gregory's improvment in scoring may be the thing that give Maryland the upset. Go Duke!

[gw67]

My two cents on last night’s Md-UNC game -

It was evident from the beginning that the Terps were in trouble. The Heels, a so-so three-point shooting team, made three of them very early, their big men were controlling their offensive boards and getting second and third shots and, worst of all, Henson was making it very difficult for the Terps to shoot from in close. I came away very impressed with the Heels performance. Earlier this year, they looked out of sync and not at all like a team with six McDonald’s All Americans. Since elevating Marshall to a starter, the team has a completely new persona and they are playing with a lot of energy and confidence. Zeller and Henson are playing very well as are Marshall and Barnes. Last night, McDonald found his stroke and Strickland joined Marshall in distributing the ball among their teammates. They are a much better team than they were just a few weeks ago and their game next weekend against the Devils ought to be hotly contested and reminiscent of the games played between these two when both were very good.

For a team that didn’t shoot well last night, I thought the Terps played a pretty good game. Overall, their defense was not bad. Zeller and McDonald had terrific games but they held the rest of the team to less than 30%. UNC had a major size advantage and started off by seriously outrebounding the smaller Terps but Maryland came back strong and was only outrebounded 46-42 for the game. The Heels also took away the Terps main offensive weapon (the layup) but, to their credit, the Terps continued to go to the hole against the trees and made a bunch of close-in shots in the second half.

Among the players last night, Zeller, Henson, Williams and Stoglin gave performances worthy of All Conference selection. IMO, Zeller and Henson are coming on too late for selection as first teamers but you can never tell how the Carolina-centric sportswriters will vote. I see both as 2nd team All ACC. Williams was fighting a stomach virus last night and didn’t show as much energy running the floor and playing defense as he normally does. However, he toughed it out and put in a very good effort on the boards (19 rebounds) against the taller Zeller and Henson. He is 1st team All ACC, IMO. Stoglin kept Maryand in the game last night in the second half. Ever since watching Guy Rodgers as a kid, I’ve loved watching short, left-handed guards. When driving to the hoop, Stoglin will often shoot the ball early and low in his motion (ala Bernard King and many others) which makes it difficult for the tall shot blockers to time for the block. For the last five ACC games, he is averaging 22 ppg and 6 apg. The three best guards in the league, Smith, Delaney and Jackson are all seniors. As of now, Stoglin may be the best returning guard in the ACC next year.

gw67

[devildeac]

Florida State picked up their 10th conference win by beating Miami 65-59. The Seminoles should make the tournament but a victory over UNC on March 2 would be a nice addition to their resume.

Won't happen without Singleton. But we can all hope...