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View Full Version : Human polls - Duke AP/Coaches #1 - this week, anyway



JasonEvans
02-21-2011, 09:58 AM
Seeing as the 2/14-20 week is over, I figured we should move the conversation about "who is #1 on 2/21?" somewhere else.

One thing I am interested in seeing-- how many teams get #1 votes. I won't be at all surprised to see 6 teams get votes.

As for who will be #1... I have no idea. I think it will likely be Kansas, but it will be very close and I could see a case being made for several of them. If I had to bet...


Kansas
Duke
Ohio St
Pitt
Texas
SDSU

-Jason "your good is as guess as mine" Evans

juise
02-21-2011, 10:09 AM
I love having chaos at the top of the polls. I am glad that the voters are finally starting (but just starting) to break out of their robotic, predictable pattern of automatically bumping down teams that lose and moving up the next team that won. Not all wins and losses are equal.

I note that some voters vote based on how teams are playing now and some look at "body of work." It seems like the CBS contingent isn't impressed by Duke's 1 win against current top 25 teams. As well know, the key is to keep winning and the polls/seeds take care of themselves.

KyDevilinIL
02-21-2011, 10:12 AM
Putting my Monopoly money on this:

1. Pitt
2. Ohio State
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Texas

Still think there's a slight possibility of oddities, such as the media and coaches' polls naming different No. 1s. Or even a team taking the No. 1 spot with fewer No. 1 votes than a lower-ranked team because there could be wide discrepancies in where teams fall on various ballots.

Based on what I've read and heard, it seems fairly certain Duke won't be No. 1. Beyond that it's a quite volatile situation.

juise
02-21-2011, 10:22 AM
Still think there's a slight possibility of oddities, such as the media and coaches' polls naming different No. 1s.

Good point. I think that the coaches will be kinder to Duke than the AP will. That seems to be the trend. My wild guess predictions are:

AP:
(1) Pitt
(2) tOSU
(3) Duke
(4) Kansas
(5) Texas

Coaches:
(1) Pitt
(2) Duke
(3) Kansas
(4) tOSU
(5) Texas

timmy c
02-21-2011, 10:26 AM
Putting my Monopoly money on this:

1. Pitt
2. Ohio State
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Texas



As long as we're betting Monopoly money...

1) Duke
2) Ohio St.
3) Kansas
4) Pitt
5) Texas

wilson
02-21-2011, 10:28 AM
Putting my Monopoly money on this:

1. Pitt
2. Ohio State
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. TexasI highly doubt if Pitt will vault three places into the top spot on the heels of a humdrum win over South Florida, followed by a loss.



Still think there's a slight possibility of oddities, such as the media and coaches' polls naming different No. 1s.I think this is a distinct possibility.

Since we're all just throwing darts here anyway, I'll toss a few too. I think Ohio State goes back to the top spot. Their two losses have come on the road to top-11 teams, better than any of the other top 6 can say. My prediction:

1. Ohio State
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. SDSU
5. Texas
6. Pitt

One thing that seems clear is that, much like last year, there's no odds-on favorite at this point in the season (even on SportsCenter, when they asked four "experts" who the best team is, they got three different answers...two said Ohio State). This makes things fun and opens up chances for more teams to have legit title shots. In light of the current state of affairs in college athletics, methinks this is pretty much the new norm from here forward.

juise
02-21-2011, 10:52 AM
A different human poll: SportsNation likes Duke (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/fp/flashPollResultsState?sportIndex=frontpage&pollId=107361).

Bluedog
02-21-2011, 11:02 AM
A different human poll: SportsNation likes Duke (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/fp/flashPollResultsState?sportIndex=frontpage&pollId=107361).

It's funny that the poll on ESPN last night included Texas and Pitt as well. I wonder why they decided to get rid of them. Duke was also leading in that one, but not as large of a margin. Looks like Duke picked up the TX and Pitt voters. By the way, if I had to guess:

AP:
1. Pitt
2. Ohio St
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Texas

USA Today/Coaches:
1. Duke
2. Pitt
3. Ohio St
4. San Diego St
5. Kansas

LA_Bluedevil
02-21-2011, 11:10 AM
The last few weeks the prognasticators discussions have been pretty much like this "I think Ohio State should be no. 1 but TX is playing the best basketball right now", so the decision to move Duke to #1 seems like a no brainer whilst still being able to debate who's playing the best. If I said to you, that my team is 25-2, with two losses on the road to tournament teams, no. 6 RPI, and the best player in the nation at SG and SF, you would say no problem with that team being #1. My goodness Foxsports' Goodman has moved Notre Dame ahead of Duke at # 5?! The anti-Duke bias is such that now nationwide people have to "explain/defend" in detail choosing Duke as their top team, even Duke fans. It seems silly. With all that my top 5:

1. Duke
2. SDSU
3. BYU
4. OSU
5. Kansas

PumpkinFunk
02-21-2011, 11:15 AM
My best guess, though I'm hearing we're #1 on Twitter now, so who knows:

1. OSU - 2 "best" losses - @Wisconsin and @Purdue
2. Kansas - People consider them better than us, wins not necessarily worse/better though
3. Duke
4. Texas - Best wins of group, bad losses
5. SDSU - One loss wasn't bad. Resume isn't great, though.

KyDevilinIL
02-21-2011, 11:19 AM
I'm surprised, but we're No. 1 in the coaches' poll. Pitt is No. 6 and the national media clowns are flipping out on Twitter.

Somehow, I'm sure Duke will be even further demonized and blamed for Pitt's ranking.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/usatpoll.htm

DukeSean
02-21-2011, 11:22 AM
Seeing as the 2/14-20 week is over, I figured we should move the conversation about "who is #1 on 2/21?" somewhere else.

One thing I am interested in seeing-- how many teams get #1 votes. I won't be at all surprised to see 6 teams get votes.

As for who will be #1... I have no idea. I think it will likely be Kansas, but it will be very close and I could see a case being made for several of them. If I had to bet...


Kansas
Duke
Ohio St
Pitt
Texas
SDSU

-Jason "your good is as guess as mine" Evans

I know it's anyone's guess at this point, but I'm curious how/why you'd put Kansas at the top after that beatdown to K-State? I would think Kansas is the least worthy of the #1 spot, at least for this week...

DukeSean
02-21-2011, 11:23 AM
I'm surprised, but we're No. 1 in the coaches' poll. Pitt is No. 6 and the national media clowns are flipping out on Twitter.

Somehow, I'm sure Duke will be even further demonized and blamed for Pitt's ranking.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/usatpoll.htm

Yea I'll admit I'm surprised as well. I thought OSU would be on top

Indoor66
02-21-2011, 11:30 AM
Order has been restored. Coaches Poll:

Rank
School (first-place votes)

Record

Points

Last week's rank

1.

Duke (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/acc/duke.htm) (19)

25-2

746

5

2.

Kansas (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/big12/kansas.htm) (1)

25-2

708

1

3.

Ohio State (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigten/ohiost.htm) (4)

25-2

699

3

4.

San Diego State (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/mwest/sdsu.htm) (3)

27-1

672

6

5.

Texas (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/big12/texas.htm)

23-4

667

2

6.

Pittsburgh (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/pittsburgh.htm) (4)

24-3

664

4

7.

Brigham Young (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/mwest/byu.htm)

25-2

593

8

8.

Purdue (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigten/purdue.htm)

22-5

562

11

9.

Notre Dame (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/ndame.htm)

21-5

506

7

10.

Arizona (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/pac10/arizona.htm)

23-4

461

13

11.

Georgetown (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/georgetown.htm)

21-6

437

9

12.

Wisconsin (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigten/wisconsin.htm)

20-6

428

10

13.

Florida (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/sec/florida.htm)

21-5

397

15

14.

Villanova (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/villanova.htm)

21-6

377

14

15.

Connecticut (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/uconn.htm)

20-6

312

12

16.

Louisville (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/louisville.htm)

20-7

278

16

17.

Texas A&M (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/big12/texasam.htm)

21-5

254

17

18.

Vanderbilt (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/sec/vanderbilt.htm)

20-6

242

18

19.

North Carolina (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/acc/unc.htm)

20-6

236

19

20.

Syracuse (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/syracuse.htm)

22-6

183

20

21.

Missouri (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/big12/missouri.htm)

21-6

161

21

22.

Kentucky (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/sec/kentucky.htm)

19-7

134

22

23.

Utah State (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/wac/utahstate.htm)

25-3

109

24

24.

Temple (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/atlantic10/temple.htm)

21-5

85

25

25.

St. John's (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/stjohns.htm)

17-9

73

NR

DevilWearsPrada
02-21-2011, 11:35 AM
I just saw on ESPN, that Duke is the New No 1.

BD80
02-21-2011, 11:40 AM
... It seems like the CBS contingent isn't impressed by Duke's 1 win against current top 25 teams. ...

St Johns is now in, so that makes TWO!

We can get another win against a top-25 team on Wednesday, but in so doing we will probably knock them out of the top-25.

KSU has games at Texas and Nebraska and could easily wind up in the top 25.

KyDevilinIL
02-21-2011, 11:44 AM
St Johns is now in, so that makes TWO!

We can get another win against a top-25 team on Wednesday, but in so doing we will probably knock them out of the top-25.

KSU has games at Texas and Nebraska and could easily wind up in the top 25.

I thought we lost at St. John's.

pfrduke
02-21-2011, 11:53 AM
Order has been restored. Coaches Poll:



6.

Pittsburgh (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigeast/pittsburgh.htm) (4)

24-3

664

4


I wonder when (if ever) the last time was that a team had as many first-place votes as Pitt does but was ranked as low as they are. Ending up 6th while getting 4 of the 31 top votes suggests some major dissension among all the ballots.

-bdbd
02-21-2011, 12:32 PM
I just saw on ESPN, that Duke is the New No 1.

While I was surprised to see Pitt down to #6, just keep in mind that the difference between 4-5-6 is all of 8 total points. So those three could easily shuffle on a whim quickly.

One nice thing about being all the way up to number one is that, even if you lose, there's still a decent chance of pulling in a one-seed. The one-seed is what we should be focused on earning at this point. It'll make the first few rounds of the NCAAT go much smoother/easier.

Now, about that pesky toe...
(Actually it is VERY cool that the guys have achieved this accolade totally w/o KI for the last 2.5 months. ) Imagine how good we can be if he does make it back soon.

Go Duke!!!

JasonEvans
02-21-2011, 12:56 PM
I know it's anyone's guess at this point, but I'm curious how/why you'd put Kansas at the top after that beatdown to K-State? I would think Kansas is the least worthy of the #1 spot, at least for this week...

Well, it was a rivalry game and it happened on a Monday night, so I figured it would not be as fresh in the minds of the voters as the weekend losses of Pitt, Texas, and Ohio State. My logic was not too terrible as Kansas came in at #2 to Duke in the Coach's poll.

I am a bit surprised that we took such a large percentage of the #1 votes in the Coach's poll -- 19 out of 31. I expect that whoever is #1 in the AP poll will not get more than 60% of the #1 votes.

-Jason "I bet the writers will like Pitt a lot more than the coaches did... and SDSU won't get nearly as much love from the writers" Evans

OldPhiKap
02-21-2011, 12:57 PM
For better and worse, we have four very difficult games left. Two against top-25 (including @ UNC), and two against conference teams needing a memorable win to squeek off the bubble.

I will be very happy if we can retain our spot through the next two weeks, but will not be surprised if we don't.

juise
02-21-2011, 01:01 PM
Wow, the AP likes Duke (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings), too. And someone likes BYU.

DukieInBrasil
02-21-2011, 01:03 PM
St Johns is now in, so that makes TWO!

We can get another win against a top-25 team on Wednesday, but in so doing we will probably knock them out of the top-25.

KSU has games at Texas and Nebraska and could easily wind up in the top 25.
If by "win" you mean "were soundly and thoroughly beaten by" then yes, we did win vs. St John's.

Otherwise, I was kinda surprised that Duke was able to move past all 4 teams ahead of us, despite their losses. I kinda expected OSU to be #1 since they lost to an almost top-10 team on the road, which is hardly something to be held against them. As Nolan said, they're pleased to be #1, but it's not what matters now. They'll be much happier to be #1 sometime after the first week of April.

ns7
02-21-2011, 01:20 PM
My goodness Foxsports' Goodman has moved Notre Dame ahead of Duke at # 5?!

Not a fan of Goodman at all. He doesn't really understand how SOS, MOV, and home/road games come into play when ranking teams. He seems to be one of those Digger types.

OZZIE4DUKE
02-21-2011, 01:26 PM
We're #1 in both polls? I'm shocked! Shocked I tell you!

Pretty meaningless at this point, other than we are now in position to have a #1 seed come tourney time, and a strong #1 at that. All we have to do is take care of business, which K, and the team, is very mindful of and plans to do anyway. Beating the teams which we're "supposed to beat", which is everybody, means the season will turn out pretty well for us. Just like last year did. :cool:

rasputin
02-21-2011, 01:36 PM
We're #1 in both polls? I'm shocked! Shocked I tell you!

Pretty meaningless at this point, other than we are now in position to have a #1 seed come tourney time, and a strong #1 at that. All we have to do is take care of business, which K, and the team, is very mindful of and plans to do anyway. Beating the teams which we're "supposed to beat", which is everybody, means the season will turn out pretty well for us. Just like last year did. :cool:

And, of course, that means that we'll have another easy-as-pie bracket and trip to the Final Four.

loran16
02-21-2011, 01:43 PM
Not a fan of Goodman at all. He doesn't really understand how SOS, MOV, and home/road games come into play when ranking teams. He seems to be one of those Digger types.

Parrish has Duke at 6.

Both of these guys, along with others, openly admit they don't care who is the best team, they just care about best wins and worse losses. Which is retarded.

NSDukeFan
02-21-2011, 01:56 PM
Parrish has Duke at 6.

Both of these guys, along with others, openly admit they don't care who is the best team, they just care about best wins and worse losses. Which is retarded.

Parrish still think Barnes is going to be POY?

KyDevilinIL
02-21-2011, 02:09 PM
I love watching nitwits like Parrish, Goodman and Forde bristle and shudder at the realization that they aren't nearly as infallible and influential as they believe they are.

Indoor66
02-21-2011, 02:16 PM
Parrish has Duke at 6.

Both of these guys, along with others, openly admit they don't care who is the best team, they just care about best wins and worse losses. Which is retarded.

That is what happens to dork poll wonks.

Wander
02-21-2011, 02:25 PM
Both of these guys, along with others, openly admit they don't care who is the best team, they just care about best wins and worse losses. Which is retarded.

Comparing actual resumes sounds like a pretty good way to rank teams to me.



Parrish still think Barnes is going to be POY?

It sure seems ridiculous in retrospect, but did he really end up being that much more wrong than the many people who picked Singler? (yes, Singler's better than Barnes, but both are nowhere near NPOY level)

Guys, there's just nothing to be outraged about here. It's completely legitimate to have us at number 5 or so. We'll be fine if we keep winning and will certainly get a 1 seed if we win out.

4decadedukie
02-21-2011, 02:31 PM
I am delighted, but stunned, that we have returned to #1 in both polls; love Duke as I do, I am not certain if really reflects our relative competitiveness or rather the traditional manner in which the ballots are cast (you lose, you fall, and sometime a good deal). Therefore, with KU, UT, OSU and Pitt being defeated over the weekend, we became the de facto top-team.

The great news is we returned to the #1 ranking with Kyrie still injured; that is a TRULY OUTSTANDING ACCOMPLISHMENT for our players, our coaches and the entire "Cameron Community" (and ESPECIALLY for Coach K’s leadership and basketball genius).

The daunting news is Temple, VPI, Clemson and UNC await -- all VERY solid, highly competitive teams, two on the road, UNC at the Dean Dome (I need say no more), and with substantial NCAA Tournament implications for three of the four. As I indicated last weekend, I perceive this as a major challenge, equal to our pre-Christmas sequence against Marquette, K State, Oregon, MSU, Butler, Saint Louis and Bradley. This will be another significant test for Duke; however, such trials are what incrementally evolve championship teams.

CONGRATULATIONS and GO BLUE DEVILS!

ns7
02-21-2011, 02:37 PM
Parrish has Duke at 6.

Both of these guys, along with others, openly admit they don't care who is the best team, they just care about best wins and worse losses. Which is retarded.

I'm somewhat okay with doing it that way, but these guys only use it when convenient. If that's the case, then why is Marquette unranked by them? 10/11 of their losses are to top 50 teams.



It sure seems ridiculous in retrospect, but did he really end up being that much more wrong than the many people who picked Singler? (yes, Singler's better than Barnes, but both are nowhere near NPOY level)


I think you're being unfair to Singler here. Barnes *finally* cracked a 100 efficiency rating for the season. Singler has been above 110 all year and if he turns it up to finish the season (he was at 116 last year), he could end up close to Nolan Smith. Plus one could argue that Singler is just as valuable as Smith on defense. Also, Singler's oeff rating his freshman season was 108, which Barnes will not beat.

I know you agree that Singler is better, but what I'm trying to say is that Singler turns it on for the last 13 games of the year, he could be deserving of NPOY.

cakerace
02-21-2011, 02:53 PM
How did the "Old Ball Coach" get to give Tommy and Harvard a vote in the WRITERS' poll??? And I didn't know his admiration of Duke extended that far...

NSDukeFan
02-21-2011, 03:09 PM
Comparing actual resumes sounds like a pretty good way to rank teams to me.



It sure seems ridiculous in retrospect, but did he really end up being that much more wrong than the many people who picked Singler? (yes, Singler's better than Barnes, but both are nowhere near NPOY level)

Guys, there's just nothing to be outraged about here. It's completely legitimate to have us at number 5 or so. We'll be fine if we keep winning and will certainly get a 1 seed if we win out.

Yes, he ended up being a lot more wrong than those who picked Singler, who was the safe pick at the start of the year. Singler may not be near NPOY level right now, but he is still a shoe-in for first team all-ACC, depending on his finish could end up an All-American, has better numbers across the board then Barnes, is a better defender, is the co-leader of the #1 team in the country vs. the third or fourth best player on a top 20 team.

Kyle was one of the top returning players in the country and Barnes was a freshman. I thought at the time that it was silly to rank a freshman that high, though Sullinger (and Irving had he been healthy) has perhaps proven me wrong. When he picked Barnes, my impression was he was trying to show how much smarter he was than others picking experienced players the year after touting Wall.

I do agree with your last paragraph.

DukieInBrasil
02-21-2011, 03:20 PM
And, of course, that means that we'll have another easy-as-pie bracket and trip to the Final Four.
They should just seed us in the F4 and also make all the other teams have injuries to key players and upsets of other teams that "should have beaten" us before getting to the F4. That way they can wine (and cheese) their way to consolation.

Olympic Fan
02-21-2011, 03:22 PM
That is what happens to dork poll wonks.

I'm not sure that's fair.

Pomeroy -- the king of the dork pollsters -- currently has Duke at No. 1 in his ratings.

Sagarin has Duke No. 3

RPI (the worst of the computer models) has Duke at No. 6.

It seems like the dork poll wonks are giving Duke a lot more respect than the national media blowhards ... and they did last year (Pomeroy had Duke No. 1 going into the NCAA Tournament).

devildeac
02-21-2011, 03:25 PM
http://images-partners-tbn.google.com/images?q=tbn:5RyBgyGisq32kM::www.nba.com/media/timberwolves/target_bullseye_logo_292_0809.jpg&t=1&h=86&w=114&usg=__EgK9AtrO7TSOvZepk8Xd3uwqhiI=


Should this be on the front or the back of our unis? Or both?

Ah, never mind, we are Duke. We are always "wearing" one of these.

sagegrouse
02-21-2011, 03:27 PM
I am not surprised to return to #1 under the circumstances. The polls seem to reflect the emotion of the moment more than a considered weighing of evidence (like, who really has the best team?). Thus, teams that lose, lose ground. Teams that don't lose move up to replace the losers. Inevitably, this means weighting more recent results heavier than earlier losses.

Duke as #1? Duke was #1 for much of the year, so it is not that there is any resistance to voting for Duke. (Besides, with K as the national team coach, isn't it a reporter's patriotic obligation to root for and support the Blue Devils?)

What is interesting is the difference between the Coaches' Poll and the AP version. My model has always been that the AP tends to be weighted to the big population centers on the East Coast and in the Midwest. Righto, it seems!


Ohio State was #3 in Coaches' Poll and #2, but a virtual tie for #1, in the AP.

Pitt went from #6 (but very close to #4) to #4 (but very close to #3).

Syracuse was #20 in the Coaches' but #17 in the AP.

St. John's went from #25 to #23.

Lessee -- those four schools are in the populous states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York. I could accept Ohio State as #1, but that was a pretty bad loss to Purdue.

sagegrouse

CDu
02-21-2011, 03:43 PM
St Johns is now in, so that makes TWO!

We can get another win against a top-25 team on Wednesday, but in so doing we will probably knock them out of the top-25.

KSU has games at Texas and Nebraska and could easily wind up in the top 25.

It would be two if we had beaten St. John's. But we didn't. Now we've at least played two teams in the top-25 (with the usual caveat that the polls are largely meaningless).

CDu
02-21-2011, 03:49 PM
Guys, there's just nothing to be outraged about here. It's completely legitimate to have us at number 5 or so. We'll be fine if we keep winning and will certainly get a 1 seed if we win out.

Exactly. It just doesn't matter whether somebody ranks us anywhere from 1-5 on their ballot right now. Ultimately, we'll either get a #1 or #2 seed unless something crazy happens (like we lose 3 of our next 5-6 games). If we win out, as you say, we'll be a #1 seed.

But either way, we'll be a really high seed and will likely play the first weekend close to home. There's no reason to worry about whether we're the 1-5 ranked team in a February poll.

tele
02-21-2011, 04:29 PM
So I guess this means Duke won't be flying under the radar anymore this season? Where you are ranked may not matter much at this point, but if you are trying to get better during the conference season, then it is better to be moving up in the polls than dropping like a stone. In another week it will be March and then the seeding discussions will pick up and rankings will matter more, especially to some of the teams Duke will be playing from here on out. Winning out has a nice ring to it, but still is hard to imagine doing it with all the difficult games ahead. But if any team would have a chance to do it, I suppose a number one ranked team would be the one. :) Go Duke!

ice-9
02-21-2011, 07:21 PM
Why do people keep saying it doesn't matter? I'd much rather have SDSU or BYU in my bracket than Ohio St, Texas, Kansas or Pitt. I'm not trying to denigrate those mid-major teams, just that I perceive them as much more likely to be upset than the balanced Buckeyes, defensive juggernaut Texas, talented Kansas or battle tested Pitt.

And to get SDSU or BYU we'd have to be one of the top two #1 seeds, which probably means winning out.

brevity
02-21-2011, 08:11 PM
Parrish has Duke at 6.

Both of these guys, along with others, openly admit they don't care who is the best team, they just care about best wins and worse losses. Which is retarded.

I'm sure there are other reasons to dislike these pundits, but their approach as you've described it above makes a great deal of sense to me.

Every preseason and regular season poll is based upon two false premises: that the outcome of the NCAA Tournament is somehow correlated to rankings, and that the measure of the best team -- at any point in the season -- has any meaning.

#1 in November? Doesn't matter. #1 in February? Doesn't matter. #1 in April? Congratulations on winning the tournament and making the history books, but unfortunately even that is not proof positive that you were the best team.

I'm not sure we should care who the best team is. Seems better to pay attention and enjoy the ride. I know that philosophy tends to shut down almost all sports arguments, but getting sports fans to quiet down is a very worthy goal.

CDu
02-21-2011, 08:22 PM
Why do people keep saying it doesn't matter? I'd much rather have SDSU or BYU in my bracket than Ohio St, Texas, Kansas or Pitt. I'm not trying to denigrate those mid-major teams, just that I perceive them as much more likely to be upset than the balanced Buckeyes, defensive juggernaut Texas, talented Kansas or battle tested Pitt.

And to get SDSU or BYU we'd have to be one of the top two #1 seeds, which probably means winning out.

To clarify, I was saying that our "human poll" ranking in mid-February doesn't matter. Where we are seeded and (moreso) who is in our bracket absolutely matters. But those two things are only marginally affected by our poll ranking in mid-February.

Acymetric
02-21-2011, 08:44 PM
I'm sure there are other reasons to dislike these pundits, but their approach as you've described it above makes a great deal of sense to me.

Every preseason and regular season poll is based upon two false premises: that the outcome of the NCAA Tournament is somehow correlated to rankings, and that the measure of the best team -- at any point in the season -- has any meaning.

#1 in November? Doesn't matter. #1 in February? Doesn't matter. #1 in April? Congratulations on winning the tournament and making the history books, but unfortunately even that is not proof positive that you were the best team.

I'm not sure we should care who the best team is. Seems better to pay attention and enjoy the ride. I know that philosophy tends to shut down almost all sports arguments, but getting sports fans to quiet down is a very worthy goal.

Exactly. Sports should be about rewarding who performs the best, not who is the best. The quality of the team should only come into play to two teams whose performances have been even.

JasonEvans
02-21-2011, 09:07 PM
And to get SDSU or BYU we'd have to be one of the top two #1 seeds, which probably means winning out.

The NCAA no longer tries to use the "S Curve" to balance the top seeds. They juggle things a bit to make sure no one bracket is not appreciably more difficult than the others, but no effort is made to put the weakest of the #1s with the strongest of the #2s.

I think whichever of BYU or SDSU wins the conference tournament will be the #2 seed in the West/Anaheim bracket. No way they take the best of these two teams and send them several time-zones away. If Duke wins out, I think we will find ourselves as the #1 seed in the East/Meadowlands bracket.

So, if you want Duke to get BYU or SDSU as our #2, perhaps the best thing is to root for if for Pitt to win out (they would deservedly get the #1 in the East/NJ region) and Duke to somehow fall into the Anaheim bracket.

As for the other #1 seeds, I see Texas or Kansas getting the #1 in the Alamodome and Ohio State getting the #1 in NOLA. Personally, I think one of BYU or SDSU will fall to a #3 seed and could easily end up in Duke's bracket.

There is still a ton of time and all this will move around, but my main point is that Duke will not get BYU or SDSU as our #2 unless we get shipped out West.

--Jason "one more thing-- I could be totally wrong about all this ;) " Evans

gam7
02-21-2011, 09:33 PM
I'd much rather have SDSU or BYU in my bracket than Ohio St, Texas, Kansas or Pitt.



I agree that I would rather play SDSU than any of the four teams that you list above, but I will also warn that we should watch what we wish for. I've seen SDSU play a number of times this year, and they are going to be a very difficult team to beat. They have a ton of size and length (Billy White, Malcolm Thomas, Carlwell), a legitimate stud in Leonard, a smart, steady poing guard in D.J. Gay and good (though sometimes streaky) shooters. Their margins of victory generally are not eye-popping, largely because they play at one of the slowest tempos in Division I (ranked 290 in tempo by Pomeroy). SDSU scares me.

In a lot of ways, they remind me of Baylor from last year. Obviously we won that game, but it was not comfortable.

Acymetric
02-21-2011, 09:38 PM
I agree that I would rather play SDSU than any of the four teams that you list above, but I will also warn that we should watch what we wish for. I've seen SDSU play a number of times this year, and they are going to be a very difficult team to beat. They have a ton of size and length (Billy White, Malcolm Thomas, Carlwell), a legitimate stud in Leonard, a smart, steady poing guard in D.J. Gay and good (though sometimes streaky) shooters. Their margins of victory generally are not eye-popping, largely because they play at one of the slowest tempos in Division I (ranked 290 in tempo by Pomeroy). SDSU scares me.

In a lot of ways, they remind me of Baylor from last year. Obviously we won that game, but it was not comfortable.

What'll happen when someone makes them speed up? I think they could struggle.

gam7
02-21-2011, 10:44 PM
What'll happen when someone makes them speed up? I think they could struggle.

The only game they've played against a team that plays at one of the 50 fastest tempos this year was @BYU (average tempo of 71.8, 18th fastest in the country), a game which SDSU lost. But the loss wasn't the result of an uncomfortable pace for SDSU. The game was played at a tempo of 63, significantly slower than BYU's preferred pace. I watched that game and SDSU did a great job of imposing their pace in a very hostile environment. The loss was really the result of an incredible individual performance by Fredette.

So, I'd say that if you can speed them up, it definitely would force them to play out of their comfort zone, but based on an admittedly small sample size, they are pretty good at playing at their pace. I'll be paying attention to that when they play BYU again this week.

wilson
02-22-2011, 09:56 AM
I agree that I would rather play SDSU than any of the four teams that you list above, but I will also warn that we should watch what we wish for. I've seen SDSU play a number of times this year, and they are going to be a very difficult team to beat...I agree with this, with one additional thought. As JasonEvans has pointed out, SDSU is unlikely to get shipped east unless the wheels fall off on them in the next couple of weeks. Do we really want to face them in a regional final in Anaheim, 97 miles from their campus and 2,512 miles from ours? I don't.

Olympic Fan
02-22-2011, 10:09 AM
I agree with this, with one additional thought. As JasonEvans has pointed out, SDSU is unlikely to get shipped east unless the wheels fall off on them in the next couple of weeks. Do we really want to face them in a regional final in Anaheim, 97 miles from their campus and 2,512 miles from ours? I don't.

Actually, the winner of the Mountain West is likely to be the No. 2 seed in the West ... or maybe even No. 1.

Right now, BYU is leading that conference. The two top 10 leaders play each other again this week, then probably again in the MW Tournament. BYU won the first matchup ... if BYU gets a split in the last two matchups, THEY will get the spot in Anaheim, either as a No. 1 or No. 2.

San Diego State needs to beat Jimmer and the Jimmettes this week at home AND win the MW Tournament to earn a spot in Anaheim. I think there is a very good chance that SD State is shipped at least as far east as San Antonio.

PADukeMom
02-22-2011, 10:15 AM
Why do people keep saying it doesn't matter? I'd much rather have SDSU or BYU in my bracket than Ohio St, Texas, Kansas or Pitt. I'm not trying to denigrate those mid-major teams, just that I perceive them as much more likely to be upset than the balanced Buckeyes, defensive juggernaut Texas, talented Kansas or battle tested Pitt.

And to get SDSU or BYU we'd have to be one of the top two #1 seeds, which probably means winning out.

I have no problem with beating the best in the country. I may be wrong but last year didn't we have Baylor, Kentucky, "Nova & West Virginia in our bracket?

1 24 90
02-22-2011, 10:31 AM
I have no problem with beating the best in the country. I may be wrong but last year didn't we have Baylor, Kentucky, "Nova & West Virginia in our bracket?

Villanova was #2 in Duke's bracket with Baylor at #3 and Purdue #4

Kentucky was #1 in their region followed by WVU at #2

The winners of those 2 brackets then faced off in the National Semis (Duke won 78-57 over WVU!!!)

JasonEvans
02-22-2011, 01:58 PM
San Diego State needs to beat Jimmer and the Jimmettes this week at home AND win the MW Tournament to earn a spot in Anaheim. I think there is a very good chance that SD State is shipped at least as far east as San Antonio.

As always, Oly is dead on target. My point was the notion of SDSU or BYU as a #2 seed. I think the one of them that is not a #2 will get a #3 seed and I am unsure in what bracket that would be. So, I could see BYU or SDSU as our #3, but not our #2... unless we get shipped to Anaheim.

--Jason "I want Duke in the Meadowlands!" Evans