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View Full Version : Duke's transition game (Luke Winn's power rankings)



ns7
02-17-2011, 07:49 PM
Luke Winn's must read power rankings are up again this week:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/02/17/power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp

He has a nice nugget on Duke's transition offense and overall fast paced style. Duke has the best points per possession in transition at 1.28 of any fast paced team. (Duke also has the best half court offense at 0.96, but the difference is not as large.) Tony Bennett and Virginia were smart to slow down Duke and it worked by limiting Duke to a fairly low offensive output yesterday.

Interesting to note that UNC was so efficient against Duke in transition and while running when Winn's chart shows that UNC has the worst offense of the fast paced teams. I'm excited to watch the rematch and K's adjustments. I think Duke slows UNC down a bit, but will be able to run when necessary.

gumbomoop
02-17-2011, 09:56 PM
Luke Winn's must read power rankings are up again this week:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/02/17/power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp

Thanks for this link. It really is a good read, lots of good info and insights: Mich St's defense against Sullinger; KU's "ominous" loss to KSt; the case for SDSU as #1 seed, etc.

NSDukeFan
02-18-2011, 09:05 AM
Thanks for this link. It really is a good read, lots of good info and insights: Mich St's defense against Sullinger; KU's "ominous" loss to KSt; the case for SDSU as #1 seed, etc.

I agree this is a great read, especially for the Dork Poll analysis fans. One other thing I got from this article is that John Henson is not one of the top 3 players in minutes played for UNC and is only playing 60% of their minutes or 24 per game. I understand he is often taken out in end of game situations because of foul shooting, but I would think with the impact he can make shouldn't he be playing significantly more than 60% of the time? I hope he continues to sit on the bench for 16 minutes a game and more during the Duke game.

COYS
02-18-2011, 09:34 AM
Luke Winn's must read power rankings are up again this week:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/02/17/power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp

He has a nice nugget on Duke's transition offense and overall fast paced style. Duke has the best points per possession in transition at 1.28 of any fast paced team. (Duke also has the best half court offense at 0.96, but the difference is not as large.) Tony Bennett and Virginia were smart to slow down Duke and it worked by limiting Duke to a fairly low offensive output yesterday.

Interesting to note that UNC was so efficient against Duke in transition and while running when Winn's chart shows that UNC has the worst offense of the fast paced teams. I'm excited to watch the rematch and K's adjustments. I think Duke slows UNC down a bit, but will be able to run when necessary.

This is very interesting analysis. I wonder how much our high efficiency in transition has to do with our embarrassment of 3 point shooters. Curry, Dawkins, Smith, and Singler are all capable of pulling up for three in transition. With the exception of Smith, those guys tend to fan out to the three point line on the break and wait for a kick out if an easy deuce isn't available. The three is obviously a higher value shot than a two and open threes in transition are a pretty high percentage shot for us. I would be curious to see our numbers on the percentage of transition opportunities that result in a 3PA compared to the rest of basketball.

monkey
02-18-2011, 10:27 AM
This is very interesting analysis. I wonder how much our high efficiency in transition has to do with our embarrassment of 3 point shooters. Curry, Dawkins, Smith, and Singler are all capable of pulling up for three in transition. With the exception of Smith, those guys tend to fan out to the three point line on the break and wait for a kick out if an easy deuce isn't available. The three is obviously a higher value shot than a two and open threes in transition are a pretty high percentage shot for us. I would be curious to see our numbers on the percentage of transition opportunities that result in a 3PA compared to the rest of basketball.

Not just how many and how good our 3 pt shooters are, but I'm guessing we are one of the few teams that on a routine basis will look for a 3 point basket instead of a dunk on a fast break. I've noticed us do this far more often than I've seen other teams.

camion
02-18-2011, 10:38 AM
Not just how many and how good our 3 pt shooters are, but I'm guessing we are one of the few teams that on a routine basis will look for a 3 point basket instead of a dunk on a fast break. I've noticed us do this far more often than I've seen other teams.

Contested layup or uncontested 3-pointer? I trust Seth and Andre to make the right decision.

Kfanarmy
02-18-2011, 10:42 AM
the chart associated with his UCONN comments lists Nolan as the fourth most productive guard from the free-throw line

DukieTiger
02-18-2011, 10:50 AM
That Duke is THAT dominant in OEff in transition is amazing when you consider that our best transition player has only played about 1/3rd of our games. And yes, I agree with others that a lot of the efficiency has to do with guys like Seth Curry- who will catch an outlet pass from Mason, take one dribble and pull up for a three (and bury it,) but that's just one example! I would also attribute it to Nolan's brilliance in transition- particularly his ability to play through contact and get to the FT line- and to the triumvirate of Miles-Mason-Kelly being very very good at running the floor for big guys.

Something else this tells me is just how much Duke misses Kyrie Irving. Obviously, we have been very good without him, but consider a couple of points:

-Duke is clearly a far, far better offensive team in transition. However, without Kyrie we don't get into transition as much. For one thing, we miss having the ability to put Nolan and Kyrie both on the perimeter and pressure teams into turnovers- we don't force as many TO's without Kyrie. Nor do we play quite the same level of pressure D. Both of these things factor in to slow the pace of the game and limit Duke's transition opportunities.

-Not only are Duke's transition opportunities lessened without Irving, but (and this might not be quite as significant- but still worth pointing out) Duke also is likely slightly less efficient even in transition. My only support for that statement are these facts:

1) Kyrie's ORtg through 8 games was better than anyone else on the team. It stands to reason that the team is more efficient offensively when he's on the floor, and particularly in transition due to his speed.

2) I mentioned Nolan's ability to get to the FT line out of transition- Nolan draws 6 fouls per 40 minutes and gets to the FT line on 40% of his shots. When also factoring in Nolan's high FT %, Nolan blows the rest of the team out of the water in FT frequency and efficiency (and I attribute a lot of this to his transition opportunities.) As good as Nolan is, Kyrie was even better. He got to the line on almost 2/3rd of his shots while shooting a higher % than Nolan.

Simply put, the combo of Kyrie and Nolan- with Kyle/Seth/Dre lurking on the wings for a transition 3, and the Plums/Kelly running alongside them- were freaks of nature in Duke's transition offense. Without Kyrie, Duke is simply the best fast-paced team in the nation in transition efficiency.

Of course, this post doesn't even begin to get into the idea that maybe with Kyrie, Duke would be averaging over 1 PPP in its half-court offense as well- but why cry over spilled milk when you 24-2, 11-1 and #2 in KenPom? :D

DukieTiger
02-18-2011, 10:58 AM
the chart associated with his UCONN comments lists Nolan as the fourth most productive guard from the free-throw line

I mentioned this in my post, but Nolan is a champ at drawing fouls, getting to the FT line and converting. No one else currently on the team comes close to touching him.

Also for the record, using Winn's numbers/method, Kyrie would finish 3rd on that list- just above The Jimmer.

Pretty awesome for a team to have 2 guys on that list.

COYS
02-18-2011, 11:45 AM
Contested layup or uncontested 3-pointer? I trust Seth and Andre to make the right decision.

Exactly. I almost never mind seeing us opt for a quick, open three in transition. It's not natural for defenders to guard the wings in a transition situation and as long as Seth, Dre, Kyle etc. are left open on the wing, we should continue to be efficient in transition.

Another reason why I think we're efficient in transition, however, is that I think we've done a good job being selective about when we run. Jon was superb at this last year, even though we almost never got out in transition. Jon only led a break when he was 100% certain we would score. Something tells me we may have even been more effective in transition last season, though I can't find similar stats anywhere. However, Nolan is doing a great job leading the break this season. Like Jon last season, he doesn't run unless we've got a great chance of getting a positive result. We rarely try to force the issue when there's little hope of getting an easy bucket.

Kedsy
02-18-2011, 12:25 PM
1) Kyrie's ORtg through 8 games was better than anyone else on the team. It stands to reason that the team is more efficient offensively when he's on the floor, and particularly in transition due to his speed.

I agree with most of what you say, but I'm pretty sure the above statement is not true. While Kyrie's ORtg is higher than any Duke player right now, at the time Kyrie went out, Andre was in the top three in the country in ORtg, so he at least was higher than Kyrie. It's possible others were as well. My guess is if Kyrie had played every game his ORtg would not be as high now as it was then, although of course that's only a guess.

As far as the team's offensive efficiency, while the UVa game drove it down a point and a half, before that game I think we were pretty even before and after Kyrie's injury. So it may stand to reason that the team would be more efficient offensively, but I'm not entirely sure it's true. Better, yes, a lot, but not necessarily more offensively efficient.

4decadedukie
02-18-2011, 12:33 PM
Thank you for this link to a VERY illuminating analysis. The question, naturally, is how do we employ such information to re-strategize for impending games, WITHOUT losing the team's hard-won fundamental operational concept?

monkey
02-18-2011, 01:45 PM
Contested layup or uncontested 3-pointer? I trust Seth and Andre to make the right decision.

I'm not against it if good shooters are making the right decision. I'm just saying it's unusual.

tylervinyard
02-18-2011, 02:38 PM
I agree this is a great read, especially for the Dork Poll analysis fans. One other thing I got from this article is that John Henson is not one of the top 3 players in minutes played for UNC and is only playing 60% of their minutes or 24 per game. I understand he is often taken out in end of game situations because of foul shooting, but I would think with the impact he can make shouldn't he be playing significantly more than 60% of the time? I hope he continues to sit on the bench for 16 minutes a game and more during the Duke game.

No one on UNC is playing greater than 70% of the time and the fact that Henson gets removed near the end of close games explains his 60% minutes. I was, however, surprised that Barnes is averaging the most minutes when he has definitely not been their best player overall.

NSDukeFan
02-18-2011, 02:47 PM
No one on UNC is playing greater than 70% of the time and the fact that Henson gets removed near the end of close games explains his 60% minutes. I was, however, surprised that Barnes is averaging the most minutes when he has definitely not been their best player overall.

You're right, but I guess my point would be why is no one playing 70% of the minutes for UNC? I realize they won't have any tired legs, but I have come around to thinking that maybe having your best players play the most minutes might be a good thing.