This Week in the ACC: 2/14-2/20

[pfrduke]

Hard to believe that we're sitting here with just three weeks left in the regular season. This week imposes some road tests on teams looking to make their case for tournament status - Clemson has a pair they can win, Maryland and BC have much more difficult games (but that would be much more impressive feathers in their respective caps), and FSU has to hit the road for their first post-Singleton contest.

Monday is dark.

Tuesday is the busiest day this week, with three games on the slate. UNC hopes to be the next in a long line of teams that have routed Wake this season (fun fact - in conference play, Wake hasn't held a single opponent under a point per possession and has only managed to reach that mark on offense 3 times). Virginia Tech hopes to keep the momentum rolling at home against the Terps; for Maryland, this game has the feel of a must-win - a loss drops them to 16-10, 5-6, with a game at UNC still on the horizon (side note: Maryland may be on track to be the highest Pomeroy-ranked team not to reach the tournament, perhaps since he started doing rankings - they're 19 in his system, but would almost certainly be on the outside looking in if the tournament started today). And Miami takes a step out of league play to travel to UNC-Greensboro, already losers of 6 games against ACC opponents this year. It's a little bit of a weird road game to be playing in the middle of conference play, but it should result in a Miami win.

[11]North Carolina hosts [257]Wake Forest
[25]Virginia Tech hosts [19]Maryland
[70]Miami at [277]UNC-Greensboro

Wednesday has just one conference game as Duke goes into JPJ for the second matchup against Virginia. Conference road games are always tricky, but this Virginia team is pretty bad. The one thing to watch out for is if the Cavs get hot from 3 - at 40%, they're the best outside shooting team in the conference. Georgia Tech is also in action, stepping out of conference to take on UT-Chattanooga, which had been right in the thick of the SoCon race at 10-2 before dropping three straight.

[113]Virginia hosts [3]Duke
[94]Georgia Tech hosts [276]UT-Chattanooga

Thursday puts Clemson on Tobacco Road to face off against NC State. At 17-8, 6-5, this is an extremely important game for the Tigers to win, as the remainder of their schedule offers just one easy contest (a home date with Wake).

[87]NC State hosts [33]Clemson

Friday is dark.

Saturday offers road teams a chance to do some damage (although for some that's a more likely result than for others). Starting at the not-bloody-likely end of the spectrum, BC heads to Chapel Hill to take on the Heels. Given what happened in Chestnut Hill, keeping the margin under 30 will be its own small victory. Virginia Tech has their return date with Virginia, hoping to avenge a loss at Cassell that started conference play for the Hokies off on the wrong foot. Since then, the fortunes of the two teams have diverged in the other direction, and Tech will look to continue that momentum. Finally, FSU heads into Winston-Salem to begin life without Chris Singleton. At least they get a warm-up game before having to face real opponents, although struggles here would be a very bad sign of things to come.

[11]North Carolina hosts [68]Boston College
[113]Virginia hosts [25]Virginia Tech
[257]Wake Forest hosts [41]Florida State

Sunday puts the rest of the conference in weekend action. Clemson has the second of two winnable road games, traveling to Coral Gables to take on Miami (although the Canes have been feisty - Duke (twice) is the only conference team to beat them by more than 10, but Clemson does own the next largest margin of victory (7)). Maryland hosts NC State - depending on what happens in Blacksburg, this could be more about NIT positioning for the Terps than anything else. And with a second straight Sunday nightcap, the Devils host Georgia Tech, who are really struggling in the absence of a) Brian Oliver and b) any talent in the frontcourt. They've lost 6 out of 7 and only one (Miami) has been close.

[19]Maryland hosts [87]NC State
[70]Miami hosts [33]Clemson
[3]Duke hosts [94]Georgia Tech

[DukieTiger]

This is a big week for Clemson. 2 road games, both winnable, would put them at 8 wins. They should also beat Wake. So if the Tigers take care of business this week, they'd be in position to go for a tenth win in the last week of the season. Of course, one of those is against Duke (unlikely) but they have VT at home for their last game- so they would have at least an OK shot at 10 wins, a top-4 ACC finish and a shot at the NCAAs. Gotta win this week though.

[ncexnyc]

I smell an upset when a well rested BC teams rolls in to face a smug, overconfident Tar Heel team, especially with Reggie having his stroke back.

[-jk]

I smell an upset when a well rested BC teams rolls in to face a smug, overconfident Tar Heel team, especially with Reggie having his stroke back.

Everyone knows reverse weauxing doesn't work...

-jk

[gw67]

I will be amazed if BC defeats UNC on the road. The BC coach has done the most with the least, IMO, but BC is not a good team. They are deficient in several areas: defense, inside play, depth and rebounding. They run the Princeton/Cornell offense well, shoot a bunch of threes and are a good foul shooting team. They also have two players that they can count on when time is running out. They are not a bad team and can give a good team trouble when they are hitting their outside shots but beating Maryland is not equivalent to beating UNC. The talent disparity is significant and that plus home court will likely be the difference.

With the end of the ACC regular season less than three weeks away, I think that it will be interesting to see how the All ACC teams will play out. Based on ACC games (see link), it appears that Nolan Smith is a runaway for ACC POY. He is first in scoring and foul shooting and second in assists and steals. At this point in time, it appears that he would be joined on the 1st team All ACC by Delaney, Williams, Singler and Jackson although Allen, Barnes, Shumpert and Trapani are playing very well at the end of the season. Allen, in particular, is playing to the potential he showed as a freshman. Others who will likely be considered for 2nd and 3rd team All ACC are Johnson, Stitt, Henson, Zeller, Kitchen and Grant. Irving, Singleton and Scott would have been candidates for 1st team had they not been injured.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/confonly.html

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

I will be amazed if BC defeats UNC on the road. The BC coach has done the most with the least, IMO, but BC is not a good team. They are deficient in several areas: defense, inside play, depth and rebounding. They run the Princeton/Cornell offense well, shoot a bunch of threes and are a good foul shooting team. They also have two players that they can count on when time is running out. They are not a bad team and can give a good team trouble when they are hitting their outside shots but beating Maryland is not equivalent to beating UNC. The talent disparity is significant and that plus home court will likely be the difference.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/confonly.html

gw67

It's an interesting matchup -- UNC has the best interior defense in the ACC (look what they just did to Grant and Booker!) ... and just about the weakest perimeter D. Part of that is by choice -- Roy would rather defend the interior than to extend his D. Part of it is Henson's skill as a shot blocker/disrupter and the fact that Strickland is the only guard who can defend.

The problem is that BC has no inside game. Absolutely none. But they can get hot from 3-point range and if that happens, they might have a chance. In the first meeting, it was UNC that was hot -- Bullock went nuts, lately he can't hit anything -- and BC was cold. If -- and only if -- BC is connecting from the perimeter and UNC is not, then the Eagles might have a chance. Probably not in Chapel Hill, but it's possible.

[Newton_14]

I just turned the channel over to check the score of the Wake/UNC game, and saw the last minute of the game. Heels won by 14. The announcer working with G-Man (Was not Brando), can't recall his name, was raving about "What a game Barnes had", so they then show 4 dunks, 2 on fast breaks, and the other 2 off catches right under the basket.

So I head over to ESPN to check the box score and figure HB had put up another 26 point game or something. Instead, he was 8 for 20 from the field, including 1 for 8 from 3-Land, and scored 17 points.

20 shots to get 17 points, 1 for 8 from 3 and they are hyping it like crazy? Meanwhile Henson had 14 points and 13 boards for a 4th straight double/double. Zeller had 18 points on 9 shot attempts. I just don't get the continued hype machine....

[JasonEvans]

So UNC housed Wake... no surprise there. Henson went for 18 and 9, Zeller had 14 and 13 rebounds, and Barnes chipped in with 17 even though he was just 1-8 on 3pt shots. Marshall, as he often does against bad teams, had a big assist number -- 8. I worry about him catching Nolan for the ACC assist lead!

Va Tech stretched out a small lead in the final seconds and took care of Maryland at home by 91-83. The Hokies won despite Malcolm Delaney shooting just 3-14. hey had 5 guys score between 14 and 22 points-- which is really impressive balance. Va Tech is now 7-4 in the conference and getting close to an NCAA bid. Their next 2 are on the road against Virginia and Wake... 2 very beatable teams. Road wins matter and if Va Tech is a legit tourney team, they will win these next two.

Meanwhile, Miami took care of UNC-G by 20 points. Anyone who thinks Wake is the cellar dweller in the ACC -- think again. UNC-G is now 0-7 in the conference... even though they are not in the conference ;)

-Jason "Va Tech could be on a nice 4-game win streak when we play them-- that place is gonna be ROCKIN when we hit town" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

Don't fight it, Newt, Barnes is too good for the ACC. He needs to jump to the show after this season.

[JasonEvans]

20 shots to get 17 points, 1 for 8 from 3 and they are hyping it like crazy? Meanwhile Henson had 14 points and 13 boards for a 4th straight double/double. Zeller had 18 points on 9 shot attempts. I just don't get the continued hype machine....

The hype machine is a good thing. The longer it continues and the louder it gets, the more likely HB is to take his talents to the NBA at the end of this season. As of this moment, he is not listed in many of the 2011 mock drafts.

-Jason "I am more interested in Henson going pro though-- as I think he is rapidly becoming a major beast!" Evans

[Newton_14]

So UNC housed Wake... no surprise there. Henson went for 18 and 9, Zeller had 14 and 13 rebounds, and Barnes chipped in with 17 even though he was just 1-8 on 3pt shots. Marshall, as he often does against bad teams, had a big assist number -- 8. I worry about him catching Nolan for the ACC assist lead!

Va Tech stretched out a small lead in the final seconds and took care of Maryland at home by 91-83. The Hokies won despite Malcolm Delaney shooting just 3-14. hey had 5 guys score between 14 and 22 points-- which is really impressive balance. Va Tech is now 7-4 in the conference and getting close to an NCAA bid. Their next 2 are on the road against Virginia and Wake... 2 very beatable teams. Road wins matter and if Va Tech is a legit tourney team, they will win these next two.

Meanwhile, Miami took care of UNC-G by 20 points. Anyone who thinks Wake is the cellar dweller in the ACC -- think again. UNC-G is now 0-7 in the conference... even though they are not in the conference ;)

-Jason "Va Tech could be on a nice 4-game win streak when we play them-- that place is gonna be ROCKIN when we hit town" Evans

Jason, one correction on your stats. You reversed Henson and Zellers numbers. Regarding Marshall and catching Nolan, I am hoping there are simply not enough games left for Marshall to catch him. I am pulling hard for Nolan to accomplish the feat. That would be amazing, given the great point guards that have played in this league over the years. Nolan has come too far to fall short now. He just has to finish this!

[loran16]

Jason, one correction on your stats. You reversed Henson and Zellers numbers. Regarding Marshall and catching Nolan, I am hoping there are simply not enough games left for Marshall to catch him. I am pulling hard for Nolan to accomplish the feat. That would be amazing, given the great point guards that have played in this league over the years. Nolan has come too far to fall short now. He just has to finish this!

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/confldrs.html

Marshall is 9 back after today's game.

[ncexnyc]

Next time a heel fan talks about Duke getting all the calls ask them about the 25 to 12 discrepancy in tonight's game. When they want to talk about how we live and die by the 3, ask them why they shot so many tonight. When they talk about Coach K. pouring it on some hapless team, ask them why Ol' Roy kept his starters in so long tonight and why Van Hatchell was launching a 3 ball with about 30 seconds left in the game.

I also believe Mr. Barnes might be in for a new nickname. If he continues to shot like he did tonnight we could be calling him, Harrison "Brick Mason" Barnes.

Some very impressive 36% FG and 18% on 3's. Love the fact their shooting guard had 2 points tonight.

[Duvall]

Next time a heel fan talks about Duke getting all the calls ask them about the 25 to 12 discrepancy in tonight's game. When they want to talk about how we live and die by the 3, ask them why they shot so many tonight. When they talk about Coach K. pouring it on some hapless team, ask them why Ol' Roy kept his starters in so long tonight and why Van Hatchell was launching a 3 ball with about 30 seconds left in the game.

I wouldn't put that last one on Roy. A coach can only do such much in a couple of years to overcome a lifetime's lessons in classlessness.


Some very impressive 36% FG and 18% on 3's. Love the fact their shooting guard had 2 points tonight.

Bear in mind - this was at home against the 277th-ranked defense in the country. I'm really not sure how UNC managed that.

[gw67]

I ought to know better than to get in the way of ardent Duke fans peeing on UNC players but I’ll add some thoughts to the Smith-Marshall contest. First, Smith is far and away the ACC POY this year, IMO; however, he trails Marshall by 8 assists after 11 ACC games for both of them. Second, Smith is not a playmaker like Marshall (Hurley, Blake, Cota, etc.). He is an outstanding offensive player who handles to ball the majority of the time and looks for his shot first. Like many a high assist player, he is lucky to be playing with a host of great shooters. I shouldn’t even get into the business of how local scorekeepers count assists. Several years ago, one of the ACC sportswriters pointed out a large discrepancy in the home and away assists for (I believe) a Clemson player. Apparently, they were counting them like hockey assists during home games. For Duke fans who are hyped on seeing Smith lead the ACC in both points and assists, it would be interesting to count the assists for Marshall at UNC home games and compare your count against the official stats to see if there is a home court bias.

gw67

[gw67]

I watched the Virginia Tech – Maryland game last night. For the 7th or 8th time this year, the Terps were ahead late in the game but were unable to hold the lead and lost the game. Aside from the loss, it was a fun game to watch. Stoglin showed why he will be an All ACC player when he gets some experience and buckles down on defense and some of the no-name Tech players came through big time. Greenburg deserves a lot of credit for getting his team in position for a NCAAT bid, although they, like most of the ACC teams this year, aren’t very good.

The Terps keep losing at the end of close games because none of their upperclassmen are capable of making the big shot and making the great pass at the end of a close game. I also put much of the blame on Williams for not being able to settle his team to take care of the ball and take good shots at the end of the game. Numerous times, Gary seems to make the wrong substitution or poorly time timeouts. At 66(?), his long time strength of being a good game coach may be on the wane.

Anyway, I tasted the agony of defeat last night. I knew that the Terps were weak but I held out hope they would pull out a victory and keep their tourney hopes alive. I look forward to the thrill of victory later this year with the Devils although I expect it to be a difficult path to get there.

gw67

[pfrduke]

So UNC housed Wake... no surprise there.

Well, it may surprise you to know that last night was the 3rd best ACC performance that Wake has had all season (other than their win over Virginia and their close loss to Miami) and by far the best road performance.

So far, Wake has lost by 21 (A), 19 (H), 19 (A), 35 (A), 24 (H), 24 (A), 21 (A), 1 (H), 25 (H), and 14 (A). Going into last night, the average road loss was 24 points - they were 10 better. Beating Wake by 14 does not a "housing" make.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, it may surprise you to know that last night was the 3rd best ACC performance that Wake has had all season (other than their win over Virginia and their close loss to Miami) and by far the best road performance.

So far, Wake has lost by 21 (A), 19 (H), 19 (A), 35 (A), 24 (H), 24 (A), 21 (A), 1 (H), 25 (H), and 14 (A). Going into last night, the average road loss was 24 points - they were 10 better. Beating Wake by 14 does not a "housing" make.

First, let me say that I'm not a gambler. I learned at a very young age that I couldn't beat the house. It only cost me a couple of hundred dollars (big money when I was 21) to learn that lesson.

But over the years, I've always been fascinated by a certain gambling phenomena -0-p the "too good to be true" line. Every once in a while, I see a line that is so outrageous that I'm almost temped to bet it ... and EVERY time, I would have lost.

Last night's UNC-Wake game was one of thos moments. Wake was getting 22.5 points. I thought that was ourageously low for team that in its previous ACC road games had lost by 21 at State, by 29 at Virginia Tech, by 35 at Georgia Tech, by 24 at Virginia State and by 21 at Maryland. The Deacs were coming off a 25-point home loss to mediocre NC State.

What would they lose to at UNC, the second best ACC team and one that has been on a role? Surely by moe than 22.5, right?

Obviously, it didn't happen -- a 14-point win. Wake covered easily -- BY FAR their best ACC road showing this year.

Note: pfr ... you listed a 19-poiny road loss that I don't see ... did you misread the 29-point road loss at Va Tech (94-65)?

[pfrduke]

Note: pfr ... you listed a 19-poiny road loss that I don't see ... did you misread the 29-point road loss at Va Tech (94-65)?

I did! That makes last night's performance even more impressive:

Previous Wake road losses:
@NC State - 21
@Virginia Tech - 29
@Georgia Tech - 35
@Florida State - 24
@Maryland -21

Last night's loss by 14 was a full 12 points better than their previous 26-point margin of defeat. UNC is the only ACC team to host Wake Forest and not win by at least 21.

[sandinmyshoes]

I watched the UNC game last night against Wake. UNC flirted with a twenty point lead about three or four different times last night. Each time Wake would make a mini run, once cutting it to seven. Yet, never was there a real feeling that Wake would actually pull an upset.

Wake packed their defense into the paint and dared UNC to shoot from the arc. And they did. And they missed. They were, I believe, 5-27. That is the way I would start every game against UNC. I would dare them to hit threes. I would adjust only after they proved it was going to be an "on" game.

Still, they shot 5-27 and still won by 14 (starters left the game, I think with an 18 point lead).

What worries me is that come tourney time they might get on a roll shooting the three. Barnes, McDonald and Bullock have all had some streaks. And all three of them have the shooting form. They shoot even moderately well, and with their interior offense and very good defense, they are as good as anyone. Oh, and their perimeter defense is better than credited. Many teams simply have to shoot from outside because their interior D can be so stifling at times.

As to the announcer hyping Barnes, that is a case of the stats not telling the whole story. Barnes got his, it seemed to me, just when UNC needed it most. But I think the real MVP for them was Marshall. They would probably have gone into half time with a 20+ point lead had Williams not pulled him because of foul worries.

In the end, foul/injury issues with Marshall and/or a poor shooting night against a NCAA tourney caliber team is our best hope for them getting knocked out.

[gw67]

I suspect that I may be the only one on this board to chuckle every time DBR includes a rant about Gary Williams in the ACC Roundup. This time they can’t quite understand why John Feinstein is sympathetic to Williams in his article in this morning’s Post. I don’t hate Williams and as a result I wasn’t expecting/hoping that the article would rip Williams. In fact, rather than “sympathetic”, I thought that Feinstein’s article was simply a good summary of the Terps’ problems this year and that Williams’ (and Dan Bonner's) comments were on point. I guess DBR must have bristled at Dan Bonner’s description of Williams as a great coach and got upset. Bonner is one of my favorite color men in college basketball and he knows the ACC (basketball and baseball). His description of this year’s Maryland team as having warning track power is perfect, IMO.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/16/AR2011021603974.html?sid=ST2011021700138

gw67

[-jk]

I suspect that I may be the only one on this board to chuckle every time DBR includes a rant about Gary Williams in the ACC Roundup. This time they can’t quite understand why John Feinstein is sympathetic to Williams in his article in this morning’s Post. I don’t hate Williams and as a result I wasn’t expecting/hoping that the article would rip Williams. In fact, rather than “sympathetic”, I thought that Feinstein’s article was simply a good summary of the Terps’ problems this year and that Williams’ (and Dan Bonner's) comments were on point. I guess DBR must have bristled at Dan Bonner’s description of Williams as a great coach and got upset. Bonner is one of my favorite color men in college basketball and he knows the ACC (basketball and baseball). His description of this year’s Maryland team as having warning track power is perfect, IMO.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/16/AR2011021603974.html?sid=ST2011021700138

gw67

I imagine Julio was more interested in Feinstein than Gary. I think Julio is of the opinion that Feinstein goes out of his way to get digs in on Duke, and was pointing out his lack of consistency.

-jk

[gw67]

-jk,

Thanks for the perspective. I have enjoyed a bunch of John's books but he has not been fair to his alma mater over the years. By the way, it is clear to us who live in the DC area why Feinstein likes Williams. The Terps, under Williams, have steadfastly supported John's charity basketball tournament (BB&T) although the Terps have a very poor record playing in the tournament.

gw67

[gumbomoop]

Glad to have the link to the Feinstein article, for 2 reasons, neither of which has anything to do with Feinstein.

First, I'm a Dan Bonner fan. He and Gminski are tops. Enjoyed Feinstein's focus on Bonner's analysis of the Terps, including the clever "warning track power" phrase.

Second, and more thread relevant and season relevant, it gives me an excuse to think through some key games coming up. The short version of my idea is this: I hope Md either beats both NCSt and FSU in its next 2 games , or loses both.

I have nothing against Md, NCSt, or FSU [nor Clemson, Wake, and Miami, all of whom actually figure into what follows]. My focus is, what's in Duke's interest? Ans: whatever causes some separation between Duke and UNC in the standings. This is both obvious and of practical value, as Duke's best shot at a #1 NCAAT seed is to win the reg season and ACCT.

What will separate Duke and UNC in the standings, preferably, by 2 games before March 5? Ans: Duke wins and UNC losses. I focus here on potential UNC losses before March 5, of which there are 3. Although UNC actually has 4 games before Duke, I discount the possibility of a loss this Sat to BC. I hope Roy and his charges also discount this possibility, and lose. But it's unlikely.

Here are the relevant upcoming games:

[B]NCSt -
2/17 Clemson
2/20 at Md
2/23 UNC

If one put all one's "UNC-needs-to-lose" chips on State, it would be preferable for the Pack to be on a 3-game win streak [Wake, Clemson, Md] when they welcome the Heels to Raleigh.

FSU -
2/19 at Wake
2/23 at Md
2/26 Miami
3/2 UNC

Putting all one's "UNC-needs-to-lose" chips on FSU, it would be best for the Noles to be on a 4-game - all without Chris Singleton, who missed most of the win over UVa - win streak when they welcome the Heels to Tallahassee.

Md -

2/20 NCSt
2/23 FSU
2/27 at UNC

Putting all one's "UNC-needs-to-lose" chips on Md, it would be best for the Terps to recover from its 2 recent "warning track" losses, beat both the Pack and the Noles, and head into CH with renewed confidence.


Now it's possible that NCSt, Md, and FSU might beat each other, sort of modified round-robin style, prior to their respective games with UNC, and then - all 3 of 'em - nip the Heels. But I'm thinking it's preferable for the Heels to have to face at least one team on a win streak.

I guess Md has the best chance to be on a win streak, as their 2 pre-UNC games are at home. Thus, option 1: I hope Md beats both NCSt and FSU.

But, Md also has the worst shot of actually beating the Heels, as they play the Heels in CH. Hence, option 2: I hope Md loses to both NCSt and FSU.

IMO, both the Pack and Noles, if they are both on win streaks, have a decent shot at the Heels, a slightly better shot than the Terps.

Did you follow all this? If not, here are the 2 key points: (1) the Heels need to lose; (2) Dan Bonner is great.

[loran16]

Glad to have the link to the Feinstein article, for 2 reasons, neither of which has anything to do with Feinstein.

First, I'm a Dan Bonner fan. He and Gminski are tops. Enjoyed Feinstein's focus on Bonner's analysis of the Terps, including the clever "warning track power" phrase.

Second, and more thread relevant and season relevant, it gives me an excuse to think through some key games coming up. The short version of my idea is this: I hope Md either beats both NCSt and FSU in its next 2 games , or loses both.

I have nothing against Md, NCSt, or FSU [nor Clemson, Wake, and Miami, all of whom actually figure into what follows]. My focus is, what's in Duke's interest? Ans: whatever causes some separation between Duke and UNC in the standings. This is both obvious and of practical value, as Duke's best shot at a #1 NCAAT seed is to win the reg season and ACCT.

What will separate Duke and UNC in the standings, preferably, by 2 games before March 5? Ans: Duke wins and UNC losses. I focus here on potential UNC losses before March 5, of which there are 3. Although UNC actually has 4 games before Duke, I discount the possibility of a loss this Sat to BC. I hope Roy and his charges also discount this possibility, and lose. But it's unlikely.

Here are the relevant upcoming games:

[B]NCSt -
2/17 Clemson
2/20 at Md
2/23 UNC

If one put all one's "UNC-needs-to-lose" chips on State, it would be preferable for the Pack to be on a 3-game win streak [Wake, Clemson, Md] when they welcome the Heels to Raleigh.

FSU -
2/19 at Wake
2/23 at Md
2/26 Miami
3/2 UNC

Putting all one's "UNC-needs-to-lose" chips on FSU, it would be best for the Noles to be on a 4-game - all without Chris Singleton, who missed most of the win over UVa - win streak when they welcome the Heels to Tallahassee.

Md -

2/20 NCSt
2/23 FSU
2/27 at UNC

Putting all one's "UNC-needs-to-lose" chips on Md, it would be best for the Terps to recover from its 2 recent "warning track" losses, beat both the Pack and the Noles, and head into CH with renewed confidence.


Now it's possible that NCSt, Md, and FSU might beat each other, sort of modified round-robin style, prior to their respective games with UNC, and then - all 3 of 'em - nip the Heels. But I'm thinking it's preferable for the Heels to have to face at least one team on a win streak.

I guess Md has the best chance to do that, as their 2 pre-UNC games are at home. Thus, option 1: I hope Md beats both NCSt and FSU.

But, Md also has the worst shot of actually beating the Heels, as they play the Heels in CH. Hence, option 2: I hope Md loses to both NCSt and FSU.

IMO, both the Pack and Noles, if they are both on win streaks, have a decent shot at the Heels, a slightly better shot than the Terps.

Did you follow all this? If not, here are the 2 key points: (1) the Heels need to lose; (2) Dan Bonner is great.

No, not really. A team being on a win streak is really irrelevant as to their chances of beating the Heels. They just need to play well against the Heels, not others.

[gumbomoop]

No, not really. A team being on a win streak is really irrelevant as to their chances of beating the Heels. They just need to play well against the Heels, not others.

I'm petty sure you'll agree that playing at home somewhat increases a team's chance of winning. So that's an obvious example of the fact that some factors are relevant in increasing a team's chances of winning.

Then the question is, whether a team is on a little winning streak is such a factor, in bettering one's odds, if only marginally.

I certainly agree that any team could play poorly, then play lights out v. the Heels; or, play well v. others, then play poorly against the Heels.

But I do think some factors - including playing well for even a few games - are relevant in increasing one's chances of continuing to play well. I am willing to concede that it may be so marginal, however, as to be not that much of a plus.

[Duvall]

What will separate Duke and UNC in the standings, preferably, by 2 games before March 5? Ans: Duke wins and UNC losses. I focus here on potential UNC losses before March 5, of which there are 3. Although UNC actually has 4 games before Duke, I discount the possibility of a loss this Sat to BC. I hope Roy and his charges also discount this possibility, and lose. But it's unlikely.

Not sure I follow. BC's chance of beating UNC in Chapel Hill, such as they are, are still considerably greater than NC State's chances of beating UNC in Raleigh.

[gumbomoop]

Not sure I follow. BC's chance of beating UNC in Chapel Hill, such as they are, are still considerably greater than NC State's chances of beating UNC in Raleigh.

We simply have a difference of opinion on this specific point.

Cards on the table: I voted for BC in the now-defunct 2d-best poll. I've asked in some other thread why Lunardi has BC as the 5th ACC team in the NCAAT [and got an informed answer]. But I just don't agree that BC has a "considerably greater" chance of winning in CH than does State in Raleigh. I'd say the odds of either beating the Heels is not so good, but I think State's are marginally better.

I'm certainly influenced by how poorly BC played at home v. the Heels recently. And by the "revenge" factor that I assume, and definitely hope, NCSt will have in its favor in Raleigh. And by the hope that State's size will actually count, and that Ryan Harrow will play well.

But maybe you're right and BC will 3-bomb the Heels this Sat.

[Edit] FWIW, KenPom has UNC beating BC by 14, and gives BC a 10% chance of winning. Whereas he gives NCSt a 24% chance of winning, predicting an 8-pt UNC win.

[devildeac]

Not sure I follow. BC's chance of beating UNC in Chapel Hill, such as they are, are still considerably greater than NC State's chances of beating UNC in Raleigh.

To offer some additional support to this line of thinking: Is there any other men's college BB team in America that could play AT Tallahassee and in Raleigh and STILL have a home ref, err, court, advantage?:rolleyes:(And no, Duke is NOT a correct answer to that question:p)

(BTW, I don't give BC much of a snowball's chance in chappaheeya of winning at the dump on the hump either:mad:.)

[gumbomoop]

The Home Page ACC roundup has some incorrect info. Says no TV for Clemson @ NCSt, but in fact it's on right now on ESPN 2.

[JasonEvans]

As I have pointed out in several other threads, this is a huge, huge week for Clemson. They have a pair of very winnable road games against NCSU and Miami. They have already blown a winnable road win at Virginia. They need to capitalize on these. I think 9-7 in the conference will be big-time bubble position for them, but 10-6 would get them in for sure.

They stand at 6-5. win these two road games and then take care of Wake at home and they will be right on the doorstep.

-Jason "at the half, Clemson with a small 2-pt lead at NCSU" Evans

[Kedsy]

No, not really. A team being on a win streak is really irrelevant as to their chances of beating the Heels. They just need to play well against the Heels, not others.

I disagree with this. If you're flipping coins, then three heads in a row of course does not affect the chances of the next coin toss, but playing a game like basketball is not a coin toss or a numeric exercise. Psychological factors are relevant, especially in college ball, played by kids.

Pomeroy may not chart confidence, but it's certainly a relevant factor in how players and teams play. A team on a winning streak, especially a young team like State, for example, would be much more confident and more likely to pull off an upset than a team on a losing streak.

[Newton_14]

I'm petty sure you'll agree that playing at home somewhat increases a team's chance of winning. So that's an obvious example of the fact that some factors are relevant in increasing a team's chances of winning.

Then the question is, whether a team is on a little winning streak is such a factor, in bettering one's odds, if only marginally.

I certainly agree that any team could play poorly, then play lights out v. the Heels; or, play well v. others, then play poorly against the Heels.

But I do think some factors - including playing well for even a few games - are relevant in increasing one's chances of continuing to play well. I am willing to concede that it may be so marginal, however, as to be not that much of a plus.

I agree with you G. Sorry, but momentum is a huge factor in sports, especially in College Basketball. Confidence breeds confidence and leads to better play. State will have a much better chance of beating UNC if they go into the game on a roll and playing well, than they would should they go into it mired in a stretch of bad play.
It absolutely factors in. Both players and teams get on rolls and go into funks. I would much rather State go into that game on a roll vs in slump.

[DevilWearsPrada]

Thank goodness NCState men have won over Clemson at the RBC center tonight. Way to go Wolfpack. And Kudos to Sidney Lowe and staff.

[loran16]

I disagree with this. If you're flipping coins, then three heads in a row of course does not affect the chances of the next coin toss, but playing a game like basketball is not a coin toss or a numeric exercise. Psychological factors are relevant, especially in college ball, played by kids.

Pomeroy may not chart confidence, but it's certainly a relevant factor in how players and teams play. A team on a winning streak, especially a young team like State, for example, would be much more confident and more likely to pull off an upset than a team on a losing streak.

Momentum can help certainly! But, to beat Carolina, the team doesn't HAVE to be on a hot streak, nor is it even a huge factor.

[Newton_14]

Momentum can help certainly! But, to beat Carolina, the team doesn't HAVE to be on a hot streak, nor is it even a huge factor.

We will have to agree to disagree. These kids are not robots. Confidence factors in, and as a former athlete, my view is, it is a big factor in play. Just look at UNC as a prime example. Their play now is much better than it was in November and December. Their early games in conference at UVA, home against Va Tech, at Miami, all went to the wire, and UNC managed to squeak out wins. Had they lost those 3 games, their confidence level would have taken a major hit. Their play in the following games would likely been very different.

Confidence and momentum affect players and teams.

[JasonEvans]

Thank goodness NCState men have won over Clemson at the RBC center tonight. Way to go Wolfpack. And Kudos to Sidney Lowe and staff.

Why was this a good thing?

It was bad for the ACC as it makes it far less likely that Clemson will make the NCAA tournament -- something that enhances the league's prestige and wallet. There is essentially a 0% chance that NC State makes the NCAAs so the best thing for the league was a Clemson win.

It was bad for NC State because it raises the slim odds that Sidney Lowe will stick around for another disappointing season in Raleigh. Someone who really wants State to be relevant again has to want the team to have a new coach. The real State fan should be rooting for them to lose games like this.

Can you explain why you are pleased with this result?

--Jason "I think Clemson's odds of making the Big Dance took a really serious hit tonight" Evans

[gumbomoop]

Why was this a good thing?

It was bad for the ACC as it makes it far less likely that Clemson will make the NCAA tournament -- something that enhances the league's prestige and wallet. There is essentially a 0% chance that NC State makes the NCAAs so the best thing for the league was a Clemson win.

Can you explain why you are pleased with this result?

I'll speak only for myself.

I have nothing against Clemson, and posted several times on the Clemson thread about how they had their chance last week v. UNC.

Next, I fully admit my chief concern is neither how many teams the ACC places in the NCAAT nor Sid's future and the long-range future of Wolfpack bball.

My main concern is that Duke top UNC for the regular season "title," which led me to babble on at some length in post #24. You could review my reasoning [using the term loosely] there. But it started with a NCSt win over Clemson.

This win leaves open - but doesn't begin to make highly likely - all the possibilities for a UNC loss to a "momentum" team [credit to Kedsy and Newton_14 for emphasizing the mo-factor].

[Olympic Fan]

I both disagree and agree with Jason about Clemson.

I disagree with his earlier arguement that they could put themselves in good shape with wins at State and Miami, plus the victory over Wake. I think their 2-point loss at home to UNC virtually killed their NCAA chances. Yeah, they could have won out, but it would have taken at win at Duke on March 2 (senior day for Kyle and Nolan) to make them a viable candidate.

Their resume is just not that good -- what is their best win? A home victory over Florida State? What's next -- Seton Hall? Even a 9 or 10 win season in a down year for the ACC wouldn't mean much without a victory over Duke or at least UNC.

Well, NC State ended the debate last night anyway. Clemson is an NIT team.

And that's where I agree with Jason -- that's BAD for the ACC.

[JasonEvans]

Clemson is an NIT team.

And that's where I agree with Jason -- that's BAD for the ACC.

Hey Oly (and others),

What is the more reasonable scenario that gets the ACC 5 teams in the dance? Barring collapses, Duke, UNC, FSU, and Va Tech are going to make it. Pom projects all of them to end up with 10+ ACC wins. But does Maryland get in if they win 9 ACC games (as Pom projects)? I think they might be on the outside looking in -- their best win on the season so far is a home victory over Clemson. If they had not blown like a 15-point lead in the 2nd half against Villanova, it would be different, but really need a signature win to go with all their close losses to impressive opponents.

The Terps are a pathetic 5-6 in the conference right now but should be fairly solid favorites in 4 of their remaining 5 games. The 5th? They play at UNC. For the good of the conference, Maryland really needs to win that game and win out.

--Jason "If the Terps could go 9-7 in the league and then win a pair of games in the ACC Tourney, that would get them in too" Evans

[davekay1971]

Why was this a good thing?

It was bad for the ACC as it makes it far less likely that Clemson will make the NCAA tournament -- something that enhances the league's prestige and wallet. There is essentially a 0% chance that NC State makes the NCAAs so the best thing for the league was a Clemson win.

It was bad for NC State because it raises the slim odds that Sidney Lowe will stick around for another disappointing season in Raleigh. Someone who really wants State to be relevant again has to want the team to have a new coach. The real State fan should be rooting for them to lose games like this.

Can you explain why you are pleased with this result?



While I agree that Clemson's loss makes it very very hard for them to make the NCAAT as an at-large bid, and I agree that State will be much more likely to improve with a different coach, as a State fan (secondary to my Duke fandom, of course), I was pleased to see the result. Part of my reaction is the irrational - it was nice to see a positive result for the kids on the team, the students who are still coming to the games, and Lowe, who's a nice guy.

On the more rational side:

I doubt the game will significantly impact Lowe's chances of coming back - they would almost have to run the table AND win two or more games in the ACCT for him to have any chance of being retained by Yow, as I think it will take an NCAAT appearance to give him enough support among alumni, fans, boosters, and athletic dept administration to earn him another year. Beating Clemson doesn't make that much more likely to happen, as I suspect that NC State will come crashing back to Earth tomorrow in College Park. The ideal result for State, in fact, is for the team to show enough signs of life to have something positive for the young, talented kids on the team to build on, and to help attract a new coach by showing the team does have significant untapped potential on the roster right now...but not to put together a crazy enough run to retain Lowe. ie: if State can go, say 3-2, down the stretch in the ACC (hopefully beating UNC in the process), they finish 7-9, the kids have some confidence, Yow fires Lowe, and a new coach comes in to a young team that feels good about their ability to compete next year.

As for Clemson, making the tournament, and the ACC's prestige, I actually don't think it helps to load up the NCAAT field with ACC teams that underperform once they get there. That's what's been happening (with the obvious exception of Duke and UNC) for the last few years, as the FSUs, Clemsons, and Marylands of our league get booted in the first or second round and the ACC ends up with 1 or 2 sweet 16 teams, being defined as a conference that underperformed in the first weekend of the tournament. The ACC needs to get teams into the field that can perform, so we get back to having 3 or 4 teams alive going into the 2nd weekend every year, like we did back in the 80s and early 90s. Whether or not Clemson makes it doesn't matter if they get bounced by Eastern Directional University or Team 6 from the Big East in the first round.

[Olympic Fan]

Hey Oly (and others),

What is the more reasonable scenario that gets the ACC 5 teams in the dance? Barring collapses, Duke, UNC, FSU, and Va Tech are going to make it. Pom projects all of them to end up with 10+ ACC wins. But does Maryland get in if they win 9 ACC games (as Pom projects)? I think they might be on the outside looking in -- their best win on the season so far is a home victory over Clemson. If they had not blown like a 15-point lead in the 2nd half against Villanova, it would be different, but really need a signature win to go with all their close losses to impressive opponents.

The Terps are a pathetic 5-6 in the conference right now but should be fairly solid favorites in 4 of their remaining 5 games. The 5th? They play at UNC. For the good of the conference, Maryland really needs to win that game and win out.

--Jason "If the Terps could go 9-7 in the league and then win a pair of games in the ACC Tourney, that would get them in too" Evans

Jason, I absolutely agree that Maryland needs more than winning the four games they're favored to win (although they MUST win those four -- neither FSU at home or at Miami is a lock). Winning at UNC would put them on the good side of the bubble, but even then, it might take a win or two in the ACC Tournament to make it.

A fifth team is going to be tough, but I think there is a better candidate than Maryland -- Boston College. Right now, they are right on the bubble. Their RPI is the third best in the ACC (and we know hoe the committee LOVES RPI) and they are going to finish with 9 or 10 ACC wins. I assume they can get Wake and Miami at home and Virginia on the road -- that gets them to 19 overall and nine in the ACC.

I don't think that's QUITE enough. I think they also need either a win at UNC today or a win at Va Tech ... plus a win or two in the ACC Tournament. Let's just say take care of business against the three weak teams, steal one of the two road games against tough teams and open with a win in the tourney and they should make it.

Of course, that leaves them little room for error ... but I think they have a reasonable chance.

Maryland is the next best candidate and they're a longshot. Clemson's chances we've discussed -- unless they beat Duke in Durham on Mar. 2 (and pretty much win out), they're toast.

On the other side, I'm not as certain as you seem to be that Virginia Tech is in. Their RPI is just outside the normal range and they don't have anything close to a signature win (Oklahoma State? Mississippi State?). Yeah, their schedule is better than a year ago, but they lost all the decent teams they added. For the second year in a row, they could get to 10 ACC wins without beating anybody -- they could do it with one win over an ACC NCAA team (a homecourt victory over FSU).

Unless they beat Duke next Saturday, they are going to have to sweat it on Selection Sunday. And there are chances for them to stumble elsewhere too -- can they close out the season with a win at Clemson?

If I had to bet today, I'd bet on four ACC bids: Duke and UNC are locks. FSU is pretty safe (just a little concern over how the 'Noles play without Singleton down the stretch).

Call Virginia Tech 60/40 to make it and Boston College 40/60. But that doesn't actually give you the same odds of one of them making it as you'd think, since a lot depends on their Mar. 1 matchup in Blacksburg. The winner of that game increases its chances significantly.

Maryland and Clemson are extreme longshots at this point.

[gw67]

A couple of thoughts:

Maryland - Based on past performances, I think the Terps have a better chance at UNC than at Miami. I don't ever recall them beating Miami on the road (a mini Clemson streak). IMO, their high point will be 9-7 and it is more likely that they finish 8-8.

BC - Beating either UNC or VT on the road is not in the cards, IMO. Unlike, Maryland, they have good to decent upperclassmen. This should help them pull out wins against Wake and Virginia although Miami is a physical team who could give them trouble. Like Maryland, I see their high point as 9-7.

Unless BC or Maryland play very well in the ACCT, I don't see either of them getting into the NCAAT, good RPI or not for BC. THey don't pass the eye test and they have some bad losses.

gw67

[nocilla]

Virginia Tech's bubble is mighty close to bursting, again.

[Olympic Fan]

Virginia 61, Virginia Tech 54

I wouldn't say that loss kills the Hokies' NCAA chances, but it does convert next Saturday's game with Duke into an absolute must-win game.

Also, it looks like FSU is going to avoid what would have been a devastating loss at Wake Forest (a loss that would have raised serious questions about how good the 'Noles are without Singleton).

[camion]

"UVA is a horrendous team for god's sakes..."

So, what is Va Tech's excuse?

[devildeac]

"UVA is a horrendous team for god's sakes..."

So, what is Va Tech's excuse?

Just wait to see which vt team shows up to play Duke next Saturday...

[Bob Green]

With Virginia Tech's loss to Virginia, the ACC is looking more like a three bid league than a five bid league. The Hokies are definitely on the bubble with work to do in order to earn a dance ticket. Our Blue Devils need to be focused upon taking care of business when we visit Blacksburg.

[loran16]

UNC is currently getting under 0.80 PPP against the #256 Defense in the Country. At Home.

Talk about a fugly game. Of course, the UNC Defense is playing tremendous. But still yikes.

[Dukeface88]

UNC is currently getting under 0.80 PPP against the #256 Defense in the Country. At Home.

Talk about a fugly game. Of course, the UNC Defense is playing tremendous. But still yikes.

I'll be mildly surprised if this game reaches triple digits. Combined.

[loran16]

Ummmm yikes?

By My Count, that was a 29 possession half (SLOW).

UNC thus was averaging 0.724 points per possession in that half. Against one of the worst defenses in college bball. At Home.

As I've said before, the Holes Defense is totally legit. The offense is (tied for 4th in the ACC prior to today) not as much.

[Bob Green]

Halftime score: Carolina 21, BC 20. The Eagles are providing a blue print to the nation on how to play Carolina as the BC zone defense is exposing Carolina's atrocious perimeter shooting and by sending only one player to the offensive glass, Boston College is eliminating Carolina's transition game. The Tar Heels are 9-27 from the field including 1-7 on 3-PT attempts.

Every team who plays Carolina this year should watch the film of this ugly first half of basketball when formulating their game plan.

An interesting NCAAT match-up would be Syracuse and Carolina.

[DukieInBrasil]

what a dreadful 1st half, particularly shooting. If I'm BC, I've got to be pleased to keep UNC to such a low pt total, considering they gave up 100+ last time. If I'm BC I've got to be kinda disappointed in Reggie Jackson who has made a bunch of poor decisions, especially with the ball in his hands late in the shot clock. BC's shots just aren't falling.
UNC has got to be perplexed as to why they are shooting so bad, seeing as how BCs D has been pretty lame. UNC is proving to everyone that if you can slow it down and stop them from running, they become very vulnerable. I've been impressed with UNCs D, pretty much denying Trapani and Jackson good looks. Barnes has looked pretty bad so far, in fact the same thing is plaguing HB as RJ from BC, they're just not working hard enough to get good looks.
Here's hoping BC can warm up from the perimeter, let's go BC!!!!

[loran16]

Terrible Refereeing sequence of the week:

Strickland shoves a player behind the play, is not called for a technical but just a personal. On the other end, BC tries a bad pass and justin knox shoves the BC player fighting for the ball with his hand completely OOB, no call.

Just...unbelievable.

[devildeac]

Terrible Refereeing sequence of the week:

Strickland shoves a player behind the play, is not called for a technical but just a personal. On the other end, BC tries a bad pass and justin knox shoves the BC player fighting for the ball with his hand completely OOB, no call.

Just...unbelievable.

Why is this unbelievable? Remember where the game is being played and in what conference:mad:.

[loran16]

BC has gotten "back into it" due to 2 3s going down, but just missed a wide open one.

Held ball gave it back to UNC at the timeout.

When UNC takes 3s or BC's double teams work, it's clear BC wins on D.

[devildeac]

Lucky %$#@$#%s. That last shot by BC was in and out. Grrrr.....:mad:

[loran16]

Okay, I know bball players have egos. I know everyone wants to be the one who takes the big shot.

But this reminds me of the VT-UNC game. A 3 at the end of this game was totally reasonable, as that's probably BC's best shot. But Jackson spent the final 16 seconds just dribbling without moving and looking for a pass.

Jackson's shot was close, and unlike the VT game, driving wasn't a real option. But why not pass the ball around to try and find a man open on a screen? They didn't try a screen at all!

Just godawful.

[Bob Green]

Reggie Jackson misses a 3-PT attempt at the end and Carolina holds on for a 48-46 victory. BC did everything right on that last possession, but the ball just didn't go down for them. Should they have taken the shot earlier with 8-10 seconds left? I say no. If they make the shot that gives Carolina the ball back with time to respond, and if they miss, Carolina probably secures the rebound. BC played the proper strategy but the shot just didn't fall. Oh, well.

[sandinmyshoes]

The officiating was what officiating always is, erratic. It balances out in the end most games.

It seems clear now that you force UNC to take 3 pointers until they prove they can hit them.

I thought BC had a good plan. They conceded rebounds for the sake of transition defense. They probably weren't going to get the rebounds even if they contested them. They protected the paint and gambled on no 3 point outburst from UNC.

But, in the end, UNC escaped on a day of upsets. :(

[diveonthefloor]

The officiating was what officiating always is, erratic. It balances out in the end most games.

It seems clear now that you force UNC to take 3 pointers until they prove they can hit them.

I thought BC had a good plan. They conceded rebounds for the sake of transition defense. They probably weren't going to get the rebounds even if they contested them. They protected the paint and gambled on no 3 point outburst from UNC.

But, in the end, UNC escaped on a day of upsets. :(

Take away the god-awful no-call on the offensive basket interference by Henson in the first half, and BC wins this game.
I hope someone in the ACC office takes those refs to the woodshed and beats them.

[DukieInBrasil]

Take away the god-awful no-call on the offensive basket interference by Henson in the first half, and BC wins this game.
I hope someone in the ACC office takes those refs to the woodshed and beats them.
That was one of the worst no-calls I've seen in a while. The ball was touching the rim when Henson slammed it, and may have even gone in if he hadn't interfered but since he did it should have been waived off. Those refs deserve to forfeit their pay for the game for that one.

[sandinmyshoes]

Actually, take away the obvious no call on the goal tend, and BC doesn't win it, it just goes to overtime.

Even if it was as simple as just taking away two points from a first half play, which it really isn't.

What I'm going to be interested in seeing is if NCSU or FSU are paying attention and force UNC into proving they can hit 3s. Of course, having said that, they'll probably get on a hot streak.

[moonpie23]

there is a thread on the UK board that said unc had gone to the four corners for the BC game.....is this true? is this why the score was so low?

[dukelifer]

there is a thread on the UK board that said unc had gone to the four corners for the BC game.....is this true? is this why the score was so low?

Nope- just some bad shooting and pretty good defense. BC forced UNC into a half court game by making sure everyone got back on D and then zoned them- and UNC did not let BC do anything inside. UNC never really turned BC over and thus they never got out on the break. They are not as good when you force them into a slower half court game- which is much more like what you see come tourney time.

[gw67]

Only watched the first 30 minutes of the BC-UNC game but the game illustrated that both teams have significant deficiencies. Maryland is a crappy shooting team but they are actually shooting better than the Heels from the field, from behind the 3-pt line and at the free throw line in ACC games. The Heels have some strengths - rebounding, defense, passing and inside play but they look like a team that may not win a game in the NCAAT (Don't ask about FSU, VT or BC if any or all make the tourney. The first weekend may well be an embarassment for the ACC). BC is a poor rebounding and defensive team and a below average shooting team. They have no depth and their new coach has won some games by relying on a mid-major offense that most teams in the ACC don't see often ehough to prepare against. The longer that I watch the league play this year, the worse the play seems to me. Normally, I am optimistic about the ACC teams in post season play but not this year except for the Devils.

I looked at the ACC-only stats and Smith has a big lead in scoring and free throw % but he is falling further behind Marshall in apg. Singler needs to pick up his game. He has dropped to 6th and 8th in scoring and rebounding and Jeff Allen is beginning to make a late season run. Today offers a good opportunity to get back on track.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/confonly.html

gw67

[Jderf]

I looked at the ACC-only stats and Smith has a big lead in scoring and free throw % but he is falling further behind Marshall in apg.

If Marshall keeps feeding his teammates like he has been, there's just no way Nolan can keep up in assists while also carrying the team with his scoring. If only Drew had stayed to keep Marshall off the court... No matter how smoothly he plays, no matter how nice of a guy he seems to be, I think I'm going to end up always hating Marshall for interfering with Nolan's historic run.

Oh, and he's a tarheel. I guess that makes him easier to hate, too.

[gw67]

I haven't gotten wound up worrying about Smith's assists because it is pretty clear that he is not a playmaker in the sense that Irving and Vasquez are. He is a terrific offensive player who plays with a bunch of outstanding players and gets a bunch of assists passing to them. He is the runaway ACC POY this year. That seems good enough for me.

gw67

[Jderf]

I haven't gotten wound up worrying about Smith's assists because it is pretty clear that he is not a playmaker in the sense that Irving and Vasquez are. He is a terrific offensive player who plays with a bunch of outstanding players and gets a bunch of assists passing to them. He is the runaway ACC POY this year. That seems good enough for me.

gw67

I guess... :mad:. I was kind of excited about the whole "first player in history to lead the league in both scoring and assists" thing. But I suppose I can settle for a plain, boring POY ;).

[Bob Green]

Halftime score: Clemson 28, Miami 27. The 'Canes finished the half on a 6-0 mini-run to keep the game close. Clemson assisted with a couple of unforced turnovers. The Tigers have the ability to place a lot of talent on the court. Jerai Grant is a talented big man, Demontez Stitt a serviceable ball handler, Tanner Smith has a nice stroke on his jump shot, Milton Jennings is a versatile player, and the whole team can play pressure defense. For some reason they struggle with their consistency, but I'm certainly not going to take the Tigers for granted when they visit Cameron.

[Bob Green]

Clemson picks up a rare ACC road victory and keeps their slim NCAAT chances alive with a 63-59 win over Miami. Jerai Grant and Demontez Stitt were the difference makers down the stretch for the Tigers.

Even though it was a slow paced low scoring affair, it was not an ugly game. Unlike the BC-UNC game yesterday where offensive incompetence caused the low score, the low score in this game was due to defensive intensity.

[gw67]

Watched both ACC games last night. Maryland-NC State was competitive and a fun game to watch. I haven't paid a lot of attention to State this year but they have the makings of a decent team next year with Leslie, Brown, Harrow and Wood. They need a big man to replace Smith. Harrow was highly rated while Stoglin was not. Harrow will be a nice player in time but Stoglin is twice the player at present.

Duke-GT was about what I expected. Tech just doesn't have the horses this year to compete with most ACC teams. Shumpert, Rice and Oliver (injured) are above average ACC players but Udofia has not lived up to his billing and Miller/Hicks are a year or two away from being solid big men. If their coach gets canned, I think that this would be a very attractive job for an up and coming coach. The Devils looked very good as usual. From my perspective, they are as good or better that Texas, Ohio State or Pitt.

The Force (i.e. Carolina bias) is strong among sportswriters in North Carolina. Based on the article linked by DBR, Tudor thinks that one of three Heels deserves to be 1st team All ACC behind the obvious (according to him) Smith, Singler and Delaney. He mentions Jordan Williams among the also rans. I'm not sure whether he has watched any Maryland games this year but Williams is having a terrific season while being double and tripe-teamed. The three Heels he supports are all nice players and for my money Zeller probably belongs on the 2nd team but Tudors' views are nonsense, IMO.

gw67

[Bob Green]

The Force (i.e. Carolina bias) is strong among sportswriters in North Carolina. Based on the article linked by DBR, Tudor thinks that one of three Heels deserves to be 1st team All ACC behind the obvious (according to him) Smith, Singler and Delaney. He mentions Jordan Williams among the also rans. I'm not sure whether he has watched any Maryland games this year but Williams is having a terrific season while being double and tripe-teamed. The three Heels he supports are all nice players and for my money Zeller probably belongs on the 2nd team but Tudors' views are nonsense, IMO.

gw67

Here is a link to the article (which I agree is nonsense):

http://www.salisburypost.com/Sports/022111-tudor-qcd

Jordan Williams definitely deserves to be on the 1st Team. He averages a double-double of 17.4 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. I would vote Zeller and Henson onto the 2nd Team. Harrison Barnes doesn't have the numbers to make 3rd Team. Yeah, he averages 13.4 points per game, which is 15th in the ACC, but his field goal percentage is not impressive and he has more turnovers than assists.

[timmy c]

Greivis Vasquez got his number retired this weekend. He also provided a fantastic quote, "They've got a pretty good chance to win all of them," Vasquez said. "I think we can beat UNC at UNC anytime."

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/maryland_terps/blog/2011/02/vasquezs_number_is_raised_to_rafters.html

Gary Williams has a way of getting his teams to play up a level near the end of conference play. I hope Vasquez is right this time.