Bubble Rap 2011

[tommy]

Too early? Maybe, but fun anyway, so why not? What's the harm? Of course tons can and will change in the next month, and some of the predictions/positions taken now will be laughably off target a few short weeks from now, but here goes.

Another poster and I started to talk bubble about one team, so rather than send that thread off on a tangent, I thought I'd just go ahead and start this one.

So.

St. John's.

They of course have high quality wins over Duke, Connecticut, Notre Dame, and Georgetown. Their strength of schedule is excellent.

But as I type this their record is 14-9, 6-5 in the Big East. Their RPI is 20, which normally means they'd be a no brainer to get in. But they're only 2-6 on the road this season. They're 5-7 against the RPI top 50. They have only two games against opponents currently ranked (Pitt and Nova) so that helps.

But also on their resume are pretty bad losses against St. Bonaventure (at home, current RPI 100) and even worse, to Fordham (winless in the A-10(!), 6-16 overall, RPI 242).

If they take care of business and beat all the unranked teams they play and lose to Pitt and Nova, they'll be in. But if they blow one or two of those games they 'should' win, like for example, to South Florida or, worse, DePaul, and end up, say, 17-13 or even 18-12 and lose in the first round of the Big East Tournament, it'll be nervous time.

When it's all said and done, I think they'll make it and they may not even be on the bubble, but then again . . .

[Bob Green]

St. John's just defeated Cincinnati 59-57 to improve to 7-5 in the Big East. A 10-8 conference record earns a NCAAT bid, IMO. With home games remaining against South Florida and DePaul, and a road game at Seton Hall, the Johnnies should reach 10 wins. They could really help their cause on Monday night with a road victory over Marquette.

[tommy]

St. John's just defeated Cincinnati 59-57 to improve to 7-5 in the Big East. A 10-8 conference record earns a NCAAT bid, IMO. With home games remaining against South Florida and DePaul, and a road game at Seton Hall, the Johnnies should reach 10 wins. They could really help their cause on Monday night with a road victory over Marquette.

Agreed. That was an important win for St. John's, especially coming on the road. They appear to be in real good shape, and if the season ended today I wouldn't even think they'd be on the bubble.

Cincinnati though looks like they're in a very different situation, as is St. John's next opponent Marquette.

[DevilWearsPrada]

Its mid February, Valentines Day, and we are Bubble Chatting.

I agree about StJohns.

Besides, Duke and Unc....... who else will represent the ACC?

With all things, being equal, and that Duke wins the ACC tourney, not another shade of blue, or another team, that rises from the ashes.

How in the world could Wake Forest or NcState even make a tourney this year, without the ACC title. We know NcState did in 1983. ACC had 7 teams, then

[Bob Green]

St. John's defeated Marquette 80-68 in Milwaukee to improve to 8-5 in the Big East. They are playing good basketball and solidly off the bubble from my perspective. Meanwhile Marquette, one of our marque early season victories, or at least we thought it was marque at the time, now has double digit losses (11) and a losing record in the Big East (6-7).

The Johnnies host Pitt on Saturday morning (0900 for us West Coast guys) in a game with potentially huge seeding implications.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Michigan St keeps getting out into all the bubble talk from what I have seen on tv. How is this possible? Lots of bad losses , they do not have a good record (14-11)(6-7 Big Ten). Is it because of past success? Tom Izzo is the coach? Last years team came on strong late and most players are back? I don't know it is kind of like last year when it took Unc forever to get unranked even though they kept losing just because of high expectations.

[BD80]

How about the Terps?

"Pour" Gary must really be sweatin' this one. He may even be dried out by the ACC tourney.

Currently 7th in a 4-5 bid league, the terps are 16-10, 5-6, with gimmees at home v NCState and UVA, and a likely loss at UNC. I think they need to beat FSU at home and Miami away AND a win game in the ACC tourney to get in.

I'd really like Gary if he would beat the heels.

[tommy]

Georgia really missed an opportunity tonight, falling to Vanderbilt in a game they led by 14 points in the second half. The Dawgs are 17-8, 6-5 in the SEC now. Their only quality win is the one over Kentucky, and their only other win over an RPI top 50 is over UAB (#35). A win over RPI #16 Vanderbilt would've really helped their resume. Their only two quality opponents are the next two games, both on the road, against Tennessee and Florida. If they lose both, I don't see how they get in absent a big run in the SEC Tournament.

[TexHawk]

Michigan St keeps getting out into all the bubble talk from what I have seen on tv. How is this possible? Lots of bad losses , they do not have a good record (14-11)(6-7 Big Ten). Is it because of past success? Tom Izzo is the coach? Last years team came on strong late and most players are back? I don't know it is kind of like last year when it took Unc forever to get unranked even though they kept losing just because of high expectations.
Last season, Michigan St finished the regular season 5-5 in their last 10, including losses to NIT teams like Illinois and Minnesota. They slipped all the way to a 5 seed for the dance. They blew a 20 pt lead in their first round game, but escaped by 3. They blew a 15 pt lead to Maryland, but were saved by a buzzer beater. Then they took advantage of upsets to the 1 (ugh), 2, and 3 seeds to make the Final 4. (They were favored in those 2 regional games.) And then they scored 50 points in their loss to Butler.

This season they are without senior leader Raymar Morgan (12 pts, 7 boards, 3 assists, and solid defense), and their best player is coming off of an achilles tear.

They are a classic case of media over-ranking based on a good tourney run the prior season. (K-State is another example of this.)

[Bob Green]

Washington State is solidly on the bubble at 17-9 (7-7 Pac 10). The Cougars have signature wins over Baylor, 77-71, and Washington, 87-80, and no bad losses. However, their remaining four games are at Arizona State, at Washington, USC and UCLA. I believe they have to go 3-1 to reach 20 wins/10 Pac 10 wins to receive an invitation.

[tommy]

Washington State is solidly on the bubble at 17-9 (7-7 Pac 10). The Cougars have signature wins over Baylor, 77-71, and Washington, 87-80, and no bad losses. However, their remaining four games are at Arizona State, at Washington, USC and UCLA. I believe they have to go 3-1 to reach 20 wins/10 Pac 10 wins to receive an invitation.

I agree with you. Right on the bubble. They're going to need those three wins not only to get to 20 and be over .500 in conference, but also to help that #73 RPI they have right now, which places them right above Vermont and Oakland. #73 RPI teams do not have much history, if any, of getting at-large NCAA bids.

I think they'll win at ASU, lose to UW and beat USC, so wouldn't be surprised to see their season come down to having to beat UCLA at home. If that's the way it plays out, that'll be great for WSU fans. And if you can't beat a pretty good but certainly far from great UCLA team, on your home floor, when all the chips are down, well, maybe that would say something right there.

I'll be rooting for them though, as I'd love to see Klay Thompson in the tournament.

[pfrduke]

Washington State is solidly on the bubble at 17-9 (7-7 Pac 10). The Cougars have signature wins over Baylor, 77-71, and Washington, 87-80, and no bad losses. However, their remaining four games are at Arizona State, at Washington, USC and UCLA. I believe they have to go 3-1 to reach 20 wins/10 Pac 10 wins to receive an invitation.

I don't know about that - they got absolutely housed by a mediocre Oregon team, 69-43, and dropped a home game by 13 to a mediocre Stanford team. If they end up on the outside looking in, those two losses will have much to do with it.

[loran16]

How bout some talk about mid-majors.

The CAA this year has a few bubble teams:
George Mason shouldn't be on the bubble; they're a dominant team in conference. If (and they should) they beat Northern Iowa, they'll be a lock and could very well get a lower seed. They're very dangerous.

Then there's VCU and Old Dominion.

VCU is 21-8 (12-4).
Good Wins: UCLA (Neutral Floor), Old Dominion (Road), Wichita State (Road)
Bad Losses: Northeastern (Road), Georgia State (Road), South Florida (Road)
8-5 on the Road

ODU is 21-6 (12-4)
Good Wins: Clemson (Neutral), Xavier (Neutral), George Mason (Home), Richmond (Home)
Bad Losses: Delaware (Road), Drexel? (Road)
7-5 on the Road

Both teams are borderline. ODU really only has one bad loss (Drexel's actually not that bad this year, and it was on the road), and several good wins in Clemson, Xavier, and GMU (and maybe Richmond, another bubble team). On the other hand, none of those good wins are on the road.

VCU has 3 bad losses (Northeastern and Georgia State are awful), all on the road however. Meanwhile, two of their good wins are on the road...@ODU and today @Wichita State.

Does either team get in without an auto-bid? Normally I'd say no, but this year...I'd say it's close. ODU plays Cleveland State in Bracketbusters this weekend, and I think if they beat Cleveland St., they're in. VCU's bad losses make it a tougher bracket for them.

[Bob Green]

I don't know about that - they got absolutely housed by a mediocre Oregon team, 69-43, and dropped a home game by 13 to a mediocre Stanford team. If they end up on the outside looking in, those two losses will have much to do with it.

You're definitely right as I was just looking at their out-of-conference games and seeing they didn't drop any games to really low ranked opponents such as FSU's loss to Auburn.

However, it is all a mute point now as Washington State is on the wrong side of the bubble with their 69-71 loss to the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Cougars are NIT bound.

[OldPhiKap]

Can we just rename "the bubble" to "the Seth Greenberg watch?" Let's just cut to the bottom line.

[Jderf]

Can we just rename "the bubble" to "the Seth Greenberg watch?" Let's just cut to the bottom line.

Haha... it really is getting ridiculous. Every year. I'm starting to think that it's part of a absurd plot to somehow actually garner more ESPN exposure than he would have gotten had his team been firmly inside the bubble.

It's crazy to think that Delaney might never play in an NCAA tournament game.

[Greg_Newton]

Yes, they have good wins over ND, Washington, Louisville, and Tennessee, and before the Arkansas upset, they had an RPI of #17.

However, they are only 7-6 in the SEC and have lost to Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. They are likely about to drop out of the top 25, and there is very significant chance they will not finish SEC play over .500, as their last three games are versus #13 Florida, #18 Vandy and at Tennessee. If they finish the regular season 20-10 (8-8 SEC), is there a chance they miss the dance?

Unfortunately, I think probably not, given how weak the field is top to bottom this year. But they have really not been impressive since conference play started.

[loran16]

Yes, they have good wins over ND, Washington, Louisville, and Tennessee, and before the Arkansas upset, they had an RPI of #17.

However, they are only 7-6 in the SEC and have lost to Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. They are likely about to drop out of the top 25, and there is very significant chance they will not finish SEC play over .500, as their last three games are versus #13 Florida, #18 Vandy and at Tennessee. If they finish the regular season 20-10 (8-8 SEC), is there a chance they miss the dance?

Unfortunately, I think probably not, given how weak the field is top to bottom this year. But they have really not been impressive since conference play started.

The answer is no. Not even close. They have enough good home wins, and really Arkansas was their first loss to a truly bad team (Georgia should get in).

Moreover, I don't think this Kentucky team is as bad as the horrible Duke team of 06-07....which got a 7 seed with worse credentials. The only question is how high or low the seed is.

[Olympic Fan]

Kentucky will get in, but they won't come close to the No. 2 seed that many of their fans expect. In fact, the No. 3 that their more rational fans were predicting looks iffy after this one ... although they could really help themselves down the stretch.

On a lighter note, K-State is finally starting to surge toward a berth. After their great win over Kansas last week, they juist beat Nebraska at Nebraska (where Texas lost Saturday). That's got to help Duke's profile just a bit.

[Azdukefan]

The answer is no. Not even close. They have enough good home wins, and really Arkansas was their first loss to a truly bad team (Georgia should get in).

Moreover, I don't think this Kentucky team is as bad as the horrible Duke team of 06-07....which got a 7 seed with worse credentials. The only question is how high or low the seed is.

Correction, we were a 6 seed but I understand your point!

[crimsonandblue]

The answer is no. Not even close. They have enough good home wins, and really Arkansas was their first loss to a truly bad team (Georgia should get in).

Moreover, I don't think this Kentucky team is as bad as the horrible Duke team of 06-07....which got a 7 seed with worse credentials. The only question is how high or low the seed is.

Yeah. UK lost to UConn by 17. Their other 7 losses have come by a combined 20 points. Which is why kenpom loves them, despite their 8 losses. When they beat people, they pummel them. When they've lost, it's been down to the wire and luck has been against them (they're in the 320s luck-wise).

[loran16]

Correction, we were a 6 seed but I understand your point!

Apologies. I've sort of blocked memories of that year, my sophomore year, from coming up again. A nightmare season.

[Olympic Fan]

The ACC's bubble teams have been frustratingly inconsistent. Every time you think one's in good shape, they lose. And every time you write one off, they win a big game.

But time is running out. Going into this weekend, the best outcome for the confrerence would be:

(1) Virginia Tech over Duke -- Look, I'm a Duke fan and want to win, but from the ACC's POV, they need the Hokies to win. A win would almost certainly put them in the NCAA field. A loss means Seth will have to sweat it on Selection Sunday again.

(2) Maryland over UNC -- The Terps have been so close, but unless they actually get a quality win (FSU isn't good enough), they'll be out. A win doesn't put Maryland in, but it leaves them in good shape.

(3) FSU over Miami -- It's easy to forget the 'Noles and assume they're in. But they'll be judged as the post-Singleton team ... and so far, all they've got without him is a win at Wake. Miami looked great at BC (I was told that Haith finally convinced Scott that he was a point guard and not a scoring guard) and if they pile on in Tallahassee, the 'Noles could be in a downwarde spiral. They've got UNC and at NC State to finish up with. They're not in yet ... close, but they need another win or two.

(4) Boston College over Virginia and Clemson over Wake. Both the Eagles and the Tigers are in big trouble, but they'll still be alive (barely) if they can win this weekend. Beating Wake doesn't help, but losing to them sure would hurt. BC was in decent shape before losing at home to Miami ... now they have to win a tough one at Virginia to avoid a devastating loss. Neither BC nor Clemson can do much to punch their tickets this weekend, but either (or both) could punh themselves out.

I'm still guessing that four ACC teams make it ... but three and five remain viable possibilities.

[-bdbd]

Can we just rename "the bubble" to "the Seth Greenberg watch?" Let's just cut to the bottom line.

Any opinions re whether the Selection Committee can have any "memory" concerning previous slights?? I do recall commentators on TV saying in the past "Team X is on the bubble, but were left out last year; so the sentiment will be to let them in this time around..." If any program is due for a break, because of recent near-misses, it would be VPI.

But if they win three more - two in the regular season (not Duke) and then one in the ACCT - I'd think that should be enough... So Duke on Sat may not really be "do-or-die" for them, but playing us tough would be important given the visibility of being on Gameday. :confused:

[sagegrouse]

Any opinions re whether the Selection Committee can have any "memory" concerning previous slights?? I do recall commentators on TV saying in the past "Team X is on the bubble, but were left out last year; so the sentiment will be to let them in this time around..." If any program is due for a break, because of recent near-misses, it would be VPI.

But if they win three more - two in the regular season (not Duke) and then one in the ACCT - I'd think that should be enough... So Duke on Sat may not really be "do-or-die" for them, but playing us tough would be important given the visibility of being on Gameday. :confused:

Sunday night that "Even if there were 96 teams in the tournament, Virginia Tech would be 97."

sagegrouse

[NashvilleDevil]

Will the win against a then #1 Duke be enough for VPI to get in the tourney after laying two eggs after that win? If they win one game in the ACC tourney are they in? If they lose their first game are they definitely out?

[RoyalBlue08]

I wouldn't want to lose my first game in the ACCT if I were them.

Lesson: Don't celebrate like you've won a championship with two weeks to go in the season.

[Olympic Fan]

Will the win against a then #1 Duke be enough for VPI to get in the tourney after laying two eggs after that win? If they win one game in the ACC tourney are they in? If they lose their first game are they definitely out?

Considering their first ACC Tournament game is almost certainly going to be Georgia Tech, I'm not sure how much that would help ... but a loss would almost certainly kill them.

They might have to beat FSU in the quarterfinals to feel secure about getting a bid.

PS The only way VPI doesn't open with Georgia Tech, then face FSU in the tourney is if Wake wins at BC Sunay. If that miracle does occurr, then VPI opens the ACC Tournament with Wake, then faces Clemson in a rematch Thursday.

[tieguy]

For what it is worth, I don't think that the loss to Clemson really counts as laying an egg- Clemson should be in the tourney. That said, I'd guess this moves VT into the "last four out" category.

[Bob Green]

Washington State (19-10) has their backs against the wall today when they play UCLA in a game they really need to win. Point guard Reggie Moore is hurt and leading scorer Klay Thompson has been suspended for the game after being arrested in Pullman Thursday night and charged with possession of marijuana.

As I previously stated in this thread, the Cougars are NIT bound.

[devildeac]

Washington State (19-10) has their backs against the wall today when they play UCLA in a game they really need to win. Point guard Reggie Moore is hurt and leading scorer Klay Thompson has been suspended for the game after being arrested in Pullman Thursday night and charged with possession of marijuana.

As I previously stated in this thread, the Cougars are NIT bound.

Wonder if they can use the same travel agent as the (C)hokies?

[tommy]

One team that few observers had even on the bubble (wrong side) maybe a month or so ago is Michigan. But they're projected by most folks to make the field now, as anywhere from a 10 to a 12 seed. I think they'll be a 10 or 11, probably 11. But they've won 8 of their last 11 to get to .500 in the league, and two of the losses have been a one pointer to Wisconsin, a 2 pointer to Illinois, and a 9 pointer on the road against the probable overall #1 seed. Good run.

RPI is kinda iffy, but their strength of schedule is a solid 19. Their opening B10 tourney game is Illinois, which is very winnable. If they do win it, then I'd say they're in, no question. Lose it, and things could get a little dicey.

[DukeGirl4ever]

Just wanted to see everyone's thoughts on NOVA being a bubble team or not.

They have tanked pretty hard here at the end of the year and after losing tonight, the analysts brought up the possibility that they're on the bubble. Yarou got hurt this game and after Armwood fouled out, they had no inside presence to take away the penetration at the end of the game.

Thoughts? Bubble team?

[1 24 90]

Just wanted to see everyone's thoughts on NOVA being a bubble team or not.

They have tanked pretty hard here at the end of the year and after losing tonight, the analysts brought up the possibility that they're on the bubble. Yarou got hurt this game and after Armwood fouled out, they had no inside presence to take away the penetration at the end of the game.

Thoughts? Bubble team?

They mentioned that Nova has 6 Top 50 wins so they should be fine. Wins over UCLA, Temple, Cincy, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, WVU and, oh yeah, Maryland.......

Anyway, they are playing horribly now. I don't think they would drop to the First 4?

[DukeGirl4ever]

They mentioned that Nova has 6 Top 50 wins so they should be fine. Wins over UCLA, Temple, Cincy, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, WVU and, oh yeah, Maryland.......

Anyway, they are playing horribly now. I don't think they would drop to the First 4?

That's what has me thinking, though. All of those wins came early in the year. What was the highest they were ranked....7th??? (I have the worst memory!)

UNC was ranked high at the beginning of last season and they tanked big time. NOVA isn't close to being that bad, but one has to question it.

IMO, they are at least in the Bubble discussion and not a lock to make it.

[OldPhiKap]

Nova would beat VTech right now. Hard to take a struggling ACC team over a struggling BE team this year, as much as I hate it.

[1 24 90]

That's what has me thinking, though. All of those wins came early in the year. What was the highest they were ranked....7th??? (I have the worst memory!)

UNC was ranked high at the beginning of last season and they tanked big time. NOVA isn't close to being that bad, but one has to question it.

IMO, they are at least in the Bubble discussion and not a lock to make it.

At 21-11, I think they're safe. Especially when Lunardi has teams such as Michigan 19-12 and St. Mary's safely in and Michigan State at 17-13 in the first four. It's just such a bad year that Nova will probably still end up in an 8-9 game. It's going to be a crazy few weeks.

[DukeGirl4ever]

At 21-11, I think they're safe. Especially when Lunardi has teams such as Michigan 19-12 and St. Mary's safely in and Michigan State at 17-13 in the first four. It's just such a bad year that Nova will probably still end up in an 8-9 game. It's going to be a crazy few weeks.


Heard Lunardi this morning and he made excellent points. He said that he thinks NOVA is safe because their losses, with the exception of USF and Rutgers, were to tournament teams, so they weren't bad losses. He also said he could see them as a double digit seed.

After upsets in conference tourneys, though, the pressure could be on NOVA and they could be sweating it out in the end. If a few upsets occur, Lunardi said they may move to one of the 4 games that will play on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Let the madness begin! :)

[pfrduke]

I think we can safely burst whatever was left of Nebraska's bubble after the first round loss to Oklahoma State.

[House G]

It's not looking good for Baylor, especially with the suspension of Perry Jones. If we can get UT to lose early, there may be extra tickets available for Blue Devil fans in Houston. ;)

[pfrduke]

Georgia took care of business against Auburn today. May not be enough to guarantee them a spot in the tourney, since beating Auburn is not an impressive feat, but at least they avoided a bad loss that almost certainly would have left them on the outside looking in.

[pfrduke]

Colorado's win over Kansas State today should get them in (although a win over Kansas tomorrow certainly wouldn't hurt, either).

[JasonEvans]

Is everyone convinced that Marquette is in? The win over WVa did it for them, right? They got housed by Louisville last night by 25. I think they are like a #11 seed though so it should not matter.

By the way, I would hate, hate, hate to see Louisville in my bracket as a #4 if I was a #1 seed. They are capable of playing ball at a really, really high level.

-Jason "huge, huge day in bubble land today!" Evans

[Channing]

I am putting aside my usual desire to see as many ACC teams as possible (with the exception of UMD) make the tournament. LGFSU!