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superdave
02-12-2011, 02:26 PM
The first Unc game closes out Phase III. We won ten games and lost two in Phase III (Florida State and St Johns). Phase IV runs from the Miami game on 2/13 through the second Unc game on 3/5.

Building on the previous Phase threads this season, here's a look at where we are right now and where we can go.

1. Can we stay healthy?

With the exception of Kyrie’s infamous toe, we’re healthier than last season. I should qualify that statement – from where I’m sitting, we’re less banged up than last season. Bumps and bruises add up over the season. Kyle’s wrist had us worried for a solid month last year, but he endured it pretty well. Jon's back flared up at times too. Does anyone have any news that suggests we've got some nicks? I hope not.

Discussion of the possibility of life with Kyrie at the end of this post.

2. Will free throws be a problem?

Duke is shooting 73.7% on the season and averaging about 23 attempts per game. For purposes of comparison, our guys shot 75.9% on about 22.5 attempts last year.

Duke shot 15-23 (65%) vs. Carolina and is at 72.2% on 21 attempts per game in ACC games. Does this bear watching? This is directly related to late game situations and the development of a killer instinct. Who gets on the court with the game on the line? Who do we have to hide because of FTs?

3. How will this team operate in late game situations?

Anyone else enjoy watching this team execute against the press or run the spread? I sure do. With our ball-handlers and shooters, we are tough with a bucket or two lead.

What happens when we’re playing from behind though? We had a nice little comeback vs. Virgina in Phase III, although we never should have been down. We had a great comeback vs. Carolina that put us ahead with time to spare.

But how do we get quick buckets and tough defensive stops when we’re down with less than 2 minutes to play? Nolan driving to the hole seems like the obvious way to get points quickly and we shoot the ball really, really well. Getting the tough defensive stops is about generating energy and channeling that into on-the-ball defense, over-playing the passing lanes and snatching every last rebound. We did not get it done vs. Florida State. What did we learn from that particular situation?

4. Deeeeefense!

Duke almost surely has to step up defensively if this team is going to make a deep post-season run. Our offense is what it is. But have we improved defensively since October? Yes – we have played well defensively in stretches, but we have not put it all together for 40 minutes, much less for a couple of weeks straight.

A. Help defense. Our big guys block shots well while helping and they seem to rotate well to pick up a driver. But the third guy is not rotating down to pick up the guy our big just left. Is this a communication issue? An execution problem? Or do we just live with it?

B. Preventing transition buckets. Carolina exploited their quickness advantage in the first half the other night. But you wont see that kind of team quickness very often. We shoot a lot of 3s so this is an outstanding way for team to attack us. We do have the ability to change up the pace of the game if we see things getting out of hand though. Coach K has thrown a zone and a press at teams for a few possessions at a time in order to change up the pace. That seems to be a way to slow the game back down and exert some control if a team is running on us.

C. Defending the post. If our big guys play with energy and focus on the defensive end, we’re darn near unbeatable. Is this the key to rest of the season? It’s a big deal for us to realize our potential. The second half vs. Carolina showed us what Mason, Miles and Ryan are capable of defensively – eating space, forcing tough shots, snatching rebounds and refusing to give an inch. Will we get that for 40 minutes at a time through April?

D. On ball defense. What role will Tyler Thornton have the rest of the way? He seemed to be over-matched vs. Unc but has been valuable in some situation (like vs. Maryland). Nolan and Seth are probably going to be too important on the offensive end for Coach K to play Tyler a whole lot. But he can get a team out of their offense for stretches.

5. How well will we diversify our offense?

Seth admitted after the Unc game that he found himself standing around watching Kyle and Nolan play offense at times. He said he realized we’d lose the Unc game if he continued to do that. He got aggressive and went off.

We’ve also seen a pretty good correlation between Mason getting an early bucket and his overall offensive performance. How do we get more consistent scoring out of these two specifically?

A. Passes to Bigs. Mason and Miles can finish if they get the ball in scoring position with no thinking or dribbling required, just dunking. Do we start looking for an inside bucket or two early? It sure would help. Ryan is going to continue to get jump shots and can really help spread the floor and get spacing. But getting consistent scoring on stick backs and broken plays out of Mason would do a lot to diversify things without necessarily having to run plays through the post.

B. Transition. Easy buckets take the pressure off everyone and increase our efficiency, so the more we get, the better off we’ll be. Nolan is probably the one guy who has the confidence to go to the rim when a defender is in his way. The other guys may lack the ball handling skills to really attack like that. Seth has been heading to the 3 point line in transition and Andre looks for that as well. There are times when I want to see Kyle and Seth initiate the break, but these guys are so disciplined and don’t look for the break that much. We’re a half court team, but transition opportunities are at least a small part of who we are now. This is the biggest change from October.

C. Getting to the line. We get to the line late in games because we usually have a lead. But we don’t get there often enough the first 35 minutes. Nolan is shooting 6.5 FTs per game and Kyle is only averaging 4. Are we a jump shooting team? I’d say this is a pretty good indication of that. Will it change? Rather, should it change? Without an Elton Brand style post player, it’s not likely to change. But this could be a big deal on a night where the jumpers are not falling.

D. 3rd scorer? We’ve all speculated on who this 3rd option would be ever since Kyrie got toed. Someone has stepped up pretty much every game, but no 3rd option has stepped up for a long stretch. We’re lacking consistency in this department. Is that a problem? Well, yes and no. Diversity is a good thing because other teams don’t know where the punch is coming from. But consistency is probably better. Can Seth continue playing aggressively on offense after Unc? He’s our best bet, right? Mason reached double digits two games in a row vs. Maryland (12) and State (16). His scoring might do more to change the way teams defend us. Is Seth 3a and Mason 3b?

6. Will we develop that killer instinct?

Good to great. That’s where we are to date. We’re good, talented, tough and our confidence is growing. But where’s the sockdolager?

This group can get on a run and break another team’s will. But they’re almost as likely to lose focus and trade baskets right after a big run. It’s not so much a question of confidence as it is a question of focus and exerting our will. Have we played with focus for a full 40? That’s what it will take to beat a top 20 team in March.

Focus and energy. That’s been on my mind all season with this bunch. That’s the difference between good and great.

Three quick ideas on how we can deliver the knockout punch-
1. Attack a guy in foul trouble. We have some guys who can get to the rim. But we are not shooting a lot of FTs. This could be a path to increasing our pressure on an opponent.
2. Offensive rebounds. We did it last year and our offensive efficiency won us a title because of rebounds that got kicked out for 3s. Miles had a nice offensive rebound vs. Unc where he just out-willed them to stretch for a ball. He tipped another rebound out to the key. We have the size to get offensive rebounds, but need to go after them with abandon.
3. Finding the mismatch. Coach K seems to key in on a mismatch more and more since coaching the Olympic team. There’s one or two with every opponent. Can we get 10 points out of a mismatch before the opponent can adjust?

7. Who makes The Leap?

Kyle made The Leap last year about this time. Coach K tweaked the offense to get Kyle more shots and he responded by winning the ACC tourney MVP and the Final Four MOP. Sure, he struggled against Baylor shooting the ball, but he shut down Lacedarious Dunn. His defense his been amazing this year even though his scoring has not gone up from last season like many expected.

Has Nolan made The Leap? Oh yeah he has. He’s almost a given at this point and he’s starting to get National player of the year buzz.

But will someone else make The Leap similar to how Brian Zoubek did last year? Zoub’s offensive rebounding was not just good, it was historically good in college basketball over the last 10 years. Do we get that kind of a run down the stretch from anyone? Seth could go on a 6-week heater shooting the ball. Ryan hit 18 straight shots last month. Mason has been getting defensive rebounds at a high rate. Who steps up and maxes out one part of their game a la Zoubs? Or does someone emerge as the 3rd scoring option and average 15 a game? Or do we remain a good (not great) team?

We’ve seen 24 games to date and we know what we’ve got – a really good team that’s capable of more. Will we get a little more and jump a notch? Phase IV is when we’ll start to see that happen if they are going to do it.

8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?

Let’s get greedy for a minute. What happens if the world’s most famous toe gets rehabbed in time for a March return?

Coach K said the team would not change for Kyrie if he is able to come back, rather he’d have to adjust to who they’ve become in his absence. In 29 minutes per game, Kyrie was averaging 17 points and 5 assists on 53% shooting, including 45% from 3.

He’s likely to take Tyler’s 10 mpg and eat into Nolan, Seth and Andre’s minutes a little each. He’s likely to get easy buckets for our big guys with his penetration while improving our spread offense with his ball handling and ability to finish at the rim. I think the two biggest ways he improves our team in the event he comes back is by helping us avoid long stretches where we struggle to score and with his on-the-ball defense. Big upside for the team if we can get Mr. Irving back. He’s one of the 20 best point guards on the planet and makes everyone better. Say your prayers and eat your vitamins, Duke fans!

DukieTiger
02-12-2011, 08:32 PM
1. Can we stay healthy?

Knock on wood here. Something this season has taught me is just how much the complexion of an entire season can change due to an injury. I can't imagine Duke's dominant 01 or 02 teams without Jason Williams. Furthermore, this is a constant concern for every team from now til April. Just underscores how "lucky" you have to be to win a championship. However, given the flu symptoms that some guys allegedly had in 08 and 09 tourneys- let's go ahead and stock up on Theraflu ;)

2. Will free throws be a problem?

I think, with end of game situations, Duke will be fine. Seth and Kyle's misses were an aberration the other night. The thing I will be watching for is how Mason shoots in this phase. He has been doing a better job of getting to the line, but he's leaving 4 or 5 points there each game. Hitting a couple of those could turn Mason into a more consistent scoring option.

3. How will this team operate in late game situations?

"But how do we get quick buckets and tough defensive stops when we’re down with less than 2 minutes to play?"

I wonder if going small would be the way to go in these situations. Put RK at the 5, with Nolan, Seth, Dre and Kyle. Press the other team, overplay passing lanes as you mentioned, and obviously that's our 3pt lineup and a favorable lineup for Nolan to create off the dribble.

4. Deeeeefense!

I, too, am waiting for Duke to dominate a team defensively. I thought we had the potential to be a dominant defensive team with Kyrie- and I still do with the team we have now. We just don't have the same perimeter quickness without Irving, so the team has to do a better job with the areas listed below.

A. Help defense.

The problems I see here: Our bigs aren't quite as good at rotating over and helping as Zoubs and LT were- but they're improving. Also, it is the 3rd guy that has been the problem at times. I would say some of this is miscommunication, and I don't want to call any one guy out but I do think that at least Andre has room to improve on his rotations. We also haven't been doing the typical Duke good job of closing out on shooters- at least not consistently. It's usually rare for a team to get many open 3's- but they are getting them this year, especially off of kickouts. It shows, in that last year Duke was #2 in the nation in 3fg% allowed; this year we are #91 so far. That's a significant drop-off.

B. Preventing transition buckets.

I think we did a fair job of limiting transition buckets against UNC, once we got our wits about us in the 2nd half. I do agree that controlling tempo should turn into an area of strength and something that we exploit going forward.

C. Defending the post. "If our big guys play with energy and focus on the defensive end, we’re darn near unbeatable. Is this the key to rest of the season? It’s a big deal for us to realize our potential. The second half vs. Carolina showed us what Mason, Miles and Ryan are capable of defensively – eating space, forcing tough shots, snatching rebounds and refusing to give an inch. Will we get that for 40 minutes at a time through April?"

-Completely agree here, all that is lacking is consistency. I can see improvements though, and I hope the Plums in particular continue to bring the intensity they showed the last 20 minutes vs the Heels.

D. On ball defense. "What role will Tyler Thornton have the rest of the way? He seemed to be over-matched vs. Unc but has been valuable in some situation (like vs. Maryland). Nolan and Seth are probably going to be too important on the offensive end for Coach K to play Tyler a whole lot. But he can get a team out of their offense for stretches."

I think Tyler can bring short bursts of energy (maybe even Josh eventually, but not counting on it) this year. The thing is, Seth is an outstanding on, and off-ball defender- but obviously brings the offense to go along with it, so it's hard to keep him on the bench too much in favor of TT. What Thornton does have in his favor is this: strength, and the ability to get a team out of rhythm, and then the ability to run point (although I guess Seth can do this too) and allow Nolan to slip off ball.

5. How well will we diversify our offense?

A. Passes to Bigs.

I definitely think we should look for Mason early in games, as you mentioned if he can score early he gets into a good rhythm and has confidence. I also wouldn't mind getting Miles a touch or two in the post, especially if he's playing alongside Mason and matched up with a smaller defender

B. Transition.

I actually like the way we have been playing in transition recently. I loved the outlet passes (I think against NCST) from Mason straight to Seth on the 3pt line for a wide open jumper. The transition thing is interesting- this year we were going to play quicker, attack more, force more turnovers, get more pts in transition and get to the line more (below) which should have made up for the half-court dominance of last year's team. Without Kyrie, this team needs to live somewhere in the middle. I think we shouldn't settle for being a half-court team, but should be opportunistic in our fast break opportunities- which, is pretty much what we have been doing. There are so many other factors that impact transition opportunities though, such as forcing turnovers, which have room for improvement with this team.

C. Getting to the line.

I'd say this is one area we can greatly improve. We're a great-shooting team, so there's no shame in taking a lot of jumpers (though it'd be great if they came in rhythm) but the trap that we sometimes tend to fall into is that we get passive on offense. Even if we take a lot of threes, we should look to attack the defense off the dribble or the pass, and this should give us more opportunities at the FT line. Nolan is great at this, but Seth and especially Andre, could probably do more of this. Andre is drawing 2.6 fouls per 40 minutes- for reference, both Nolan and Kyrie draw upwards of 6 fouls per 40. Finally, the more we can count on the Plums around the basket, the more opportunities those guys will get at the FT line. Now making them is another story :)

D. 3rd scorer?

Regarding the consistency of our 3rd scorer, I don't mind that different guys score in double figures in different games. I don't mind the inconsistency there, but I would like to see the secondary guys all become more consistent about making their marks on each game. It seems like each game, one guy steps up as the 3rd scorer, and the rest of the team tends to disappear from the box score- with the exception of Mason, who is consistently a factor on the boards. We need to start getting consistent team efforts, not only in scoring but just overall in making a positive impact on the game.

6. Will we develop that killer instinct?

This is the biggest thing I will be looking for. It's not surprising for such a young team-apart from Nolan and Kyle- to need to develop that nastiness. I feel like it's going to come, and eventually we are going to see a dominant performance from this team. I just want them to keep growing.


7. Who makes The Leap?

I have a couple of thoughts here. For one, this is the time of year where Kyle Singler kicks into another gear. So I'm almost expecting, though not taking for granted, a leap from Kyle of some sort.

As for the rest, I don't know who I see making "the leap." I think that's ok though. What I can see is a lot of guys becoming a whole lot more consistent with what they do well RIGHT NOW. I don't see any roles changing or any really drastic changes in this phase. But small things like Andre getting back on track, Seth continuing to find his shot, and Mason continually controlling the low block. Those are the things I'm looking for specifically.

One guy who I would LOVE to see make a leap is Miles, though. He has the potential to bring so much to this team, not to take away from what he already brings.

8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?


Knock on wood, is all I'll say!!

gam7
02-12-2011, 09:04 PM
D. 3rd scorer? We’ve all speculated on who this 3rd option would be ever since Kyrie got toed. Someone has stepped up pretty much every game, but no 3rd option has stepped up for a long stretch. We’re lacking consistency in this department. Is that a problem? Well, yes and no. Diversity is a good thing because other teams don’t know where the punch is coming from. But consistency is probably better. Can Seth continue playing aggressively on offense after Unc? He’s our best bet, right? Mason reached double digits two games in a row vs. Maryland (12) and State (16). His scoring might do more to change the way teams defend us. Is Seth 3a and Mason 3b?



Nice work superdave. Interestingly, we've had exactly two games this year in which we've had only two double-figure scorers (not surprisingly, each time it was Kyle and Nolan). Take a wild guess at which games they were. You got it - Florida State and St. John's. We're undefeated when we have more than two double-figure scorers.

loldevilz
02-12-2011, 11:20 PM
I'd thought I'd give this thing a try. Don't be too harsh to my suggestions.

C. Defending the post.
Give Miles the start- Looking at the stats its extremely clear that Miles has a much more positive impact on the game than Mason. The stats show that over 40 minutes Miles is an enormous +8 better than Mason. Watching that game reinforces this. Miles is bigger and harder to move, making him a better post defender. He doesn't overextend as much as Mason and is more experienced. As an offensive rebounder he is vastly improved. He has started to tip the ball out which is making the offense so much more efficient.

D. On ball defense.
Pull in the defense -Over extending the defense has overall been a negative this year. With Irving Duke could cause turnovers, but without him its allowing teams to drive against us. The best example of this is against UNC. In the first half Duke over extended the defense while in the second half Duke withdrew forcing the guards to beat our guards one-on-one which was futile. Last year Duke employed this strategy and it was key to their championship season.

5. How well will we diversify our offense?
What Coach K wanted Tyler Thornton to be, he should allow Seth Curry to be. Seth is a good passer. Let him initiate the offense some alongside Nolan. Let Nolan or Singler move while Curry finds them. The defense can't possibly guard both Nolan and Singler when they are in motion.

7. Who makes The Leap?
Ryan Kelly can be Duke's X-factor if he is used properly. The 6-11 shooter is a mismatch in almost every situation. I think the best way to use him is in a pick and pop situation. Where he can pop out to take a 3 pointer. If he can consistently knock down, it makes those screens for Nolan so much more difficult to cover.

superdave
02-13-2011, 03:54 PM
I'd thought I'd give this thing a try. Don't be too harsh to my suggestions.

C. Defending the post.
Give Miles the start- Looking at the stats its extremely clear that Miles has a much more positive impact on the game than Mason. The stats show that over 40 minutes Miles is an enormous +8 better than Mason. Watching that game reinforces this. Miles is bigger and harder to move, making him a better post defender. He doesn't overextend as much as Mason and is more experienced. As an offensive rebounder he is vastly improved. He has started to tip the ball out which is making the offense so much more efficient.

D. On ball defense.
Pull in the defense -Over extending the defense has overall been a negative this year. With Irving Duke could cause turnovers, but without him its allowing teams to drive against us. The best example of this is against UNC. In the first half Duke over extended the defense while in the second half Duke withdrew forcing the guards to beat our guards one-on-one which was futile. Last year Duke employed this strategy and it was key to their championship season.

5. How well will we diversify our offense?
What Coach K wanted Tyler Thornton to be, he should allow Seth Curry to be. Seth is a good passer. Let him initiate the offense some alongside Nolan. Let Nolan or Singler move while Curry finds them. The defense can't possibly guard both Nolan and Singler when they are in motion.

7. Who makes The Leap?
Ryan Kelly can be Duke's X-factor if he is used properly. The 6-11 shooter is a mismatch in almost every situation. I think the best way to use him is in a pick and pop situation. Where he can pop out to take a 3 pointer. If he can consistently knock down, it makes those screens for Nolan so much more difficult to cover.

Interesting comments and ideas. I'm not sure the big man rotation will change a whole lot. Seems like their minutes are fairly set, except for when one of the guys is playing well enough to earn more minutes. I would like to see Miles throw his weight around more, but I'm not sure I'd expect his minutes to go up.

I do like the matchup problems that Ryan Kelly can create. He can pull the other team's 4 and open up the late. That can help with us running cuts or post plays for Mason, Kyle and even Nolan.

Explain your comment on extending/pulling in the defense a little more if you please. Was this what people discussed vs. Unc how Nolan guarded Marshall in the 2nd half (forcing him to shoot rather than pass)? Guess that's an individual matchup wrinkle depending on the opponent.

MChambers
02-13-2011, 04:02 PM
Explain your comment on extending/pulling in the defense a little more if you please. Was this what people discussed vs. Unc how Nolan guarded Marshall in the 2nd half (forcing him to shoot rather than pass)? Guess that's an individual matchup wrinkle depending on the opponent.
It's not my comment, but I and others have raised this point, particularly after the St. Johns debacle. Duke traditionally pressures the backcourt players the moment they cross midcourt and we were doing so with Kyrie. Last year, however, we played a "compact attacking" defense (at least I think that's what Coach K called it), because we didn't have the depth or speed to extend the defense. After the UNC game, perhaps on the Dan Patrick show, Coach K said Duke had made an adjustment on defense, to pull it back more. I don't think it had much to do with Marshall specifically, but more to do with the other UNC perimeter players.

Without Kyrie, I'm not convinced we have the personnel (mostly from a speed point of view -- not questioning depth) to extend the defense. I think we give up too many easy baskets and don't cause enough turnovers to extend the defense, except against lesser teams (like NC State).

Newton_14
02-13-2011, 05:56 PM
Interesting comments and ideas. I'm not sure the big man rotation will change a whole lot. Seems like their minutes are fairly set, except for when one of the guys is playing well enough to earn more minutes. I would like to see Miles throw his weight around more, but I'm not sure I'd expect his minutes to go up.

I do like the matchup problems that Ryan Kelly can create. He can pull the other team's 4 and open up the late. That can help with us running cuts or post plays for Mason, Kyle and even Nolan.

Explain your comment on extending/pulling in the defense a little more if you please. Was this what people discussed vs. Unc how Nolan guarded Marshall in the 2nd half (forcing him to shoot rather than pass)? Guess that's an individual matchup wrinkle depending on the opponent.

Great write up Superdave. One comment about the strategy on Marshall. This was mainly about our bigs. After the first 5 minutes, they were instructed to stay home on their man if Marshall got into the lane, and force Marshall to finish himself vs dumping the pass off to a UNC big. It worked. We started denying the dumpoff pass and Marshall "finished" (pun intended) 3 for 11.

lotusland
02-13-2011, 06:49 PM
# 3 - 3rd scorer and #7 -the leap provide and interesting contrast with last year's team. Last year we had 3 consistent scorers all year with Thomas and Zoubek being consistent role players all year. Zoubek rebounded and defended well and set excellent screens for our big three all year but what he added over the 2nd half was consistent post scoring. He actually became a 4th scoring option although still less prolific than the big 3.

This year since KI got injured we have had no consistent 3rd scoring option. Dre, Mason, Ryan, and Seth have all had some good scoring games as well as some games where they disapeared almost completely.

This year it seems that Duke will have to tinker with the lineup to find the best combination every night. Do we play Tyler more for ball handling and defense or Seth for scoring? Can Dre give quality minutes at 3 when Kyle is on the bench or when he slides down to the 4? I suspect it will change from night to night depending on matchups and as well finding who is "hot" on a given night.

To me Andre is the one who is in danger of having a reduced role b/c he's struggled some on defense and even more as a ball-handler so if his shot is not falling he doesn't have a "role". I hope he manages to stay involved b/c he seems to sulk and become disengaged when he's not contributing and we need him as a viable scoring option especiallhy if Seth and Ryan remain inconsistent.

I think the key to success over the second half this season may come down to finding the right pieces at the right times.

superdave
02-13-2011, 09:36 PM
# 3 - 3rd scorer and #7 -the leap provide and interesting contrast with last year's team. Last year we had 3 consistent scorers all year with Thomas and Zoubek being consistent role players all year. Zoubek rebounded and defended well and set excellent screens for our big three all year but what he added over the 2nd half was consistent post scoring. He actually became a 4th scoring option although still less prolific than the big 3.

This year since KI got injured we have had no consistent 3rd scoring option. Dre, Mason, Ryan, and Seth have all had some good scoring games as well as some games where they disapeared almost completely.

This year it seems that Duke will have to tinker with the lineup to find the best combination every night. Do we play Tyler more for ball handling and defense or Seth for scoring? Can Dre give quality minutes at 3 when Kyle is on the bench or when he slides down to the 4? I suspect it will change from night to night depending on matchups and as well finding who is "hot" on a given night.

To me Andre is the one who is in danger of having a reduced role b/c he's struggled some on defense and even more as a ball-handler so if his shot is not falling he doesn't have a "role". I hope he manages to stay involved b/c he seems to sulk and become disengaged when he's not contributing and we need him as a viable scoring option especiallhy if Seth and Ryan remain inconsistent.

I think the key to success over the second half this season may come down to finding the right pieces at the right times.

What are your thoughts after the Miami game? Seth's defense was incredible today - even better than his offense actually. He is making it really hard to play Tyler and Andre more (39 minutes, 5 steals, 4 3s).

I do hope to see Andre get into a groove. His 3 point % is down to 43.6% from up over 50 into January. He occasionally makes a move to the basket that I find encouraging which is probably the key for him to become more than a spot up shooter.

I really see guys focusing on what their contribution is and playing within those roles. They are maturing this month in a big way.

superdave
02-13-2011, 10:27 PM
Duke is sitting at 39.2% after the Miami game. Kyle is at 36.4% and Nolan is at 35.8%.

If the team inches up over 40% and Kyle and Nolan start moving up too, we may be developing the KO punch everyone wants to see. At this point in the season I think improving on the margins is both what we should be hoping for and a sign that the guys are really focused.

gam7
02-14-2011, 12:19 AM
1. Can we stay healthy?

With the exception of Kyrie’s infamous toe, we’re healthier than last season. I should qualify that statement – from where I’m sitting, we’re less banged up than last season. Bumps and bruises add up over the season. Kyle’s wrist had us worried for a solid month last year, but he endured it pretty well. Jon's back flared up at times too. Does anyone have any news that suggests we've got some nicks? I hope not.



Alright, superdave, I'm not going to blame you for jinxing us, but, well, I think you may have jinxed us. Against Miami, we had Nolan's eye and Kyle appeared to twist an ankle but played through it. That will be sore tomorrow. Also, Coach K revealed in his post-game comments that Ryan sprained his ankle a couple of days ago.

ncexnyc
02-14-2011, 12:39 AM
It's funny how things can take a complete 180 turn during the season. I recall in Phase I, there was the topic AGENDAS. At the time I posted about the large amount of talent we had and how self impossed pressure could effect some kids. For awhile it looked to me like Seth was fitting that concept to a t, as Andre was getting the rave reviews along with the bulk of the playing time. Now it's Andre who appears lost in the shuffle and Seth has had two strong outings in a row.

Hopefully both kids will be able get their games going at the same time, it only makes us that much better as a team.

superdave
02-14-2011, 09:22 AM
Alright, superdave, I'm not going to blame you for jinxing us, but, well, I think you may have jinxed us. Against Miami, we had Nolan's eye and Kyle appeared to twist an ankle but played through it. That will be sore tomorrow. Also, Coach K revealed in his post-game comments that Ryan sprained his ankle a couple of days ago.

Good thing I dont believe in jinxes, or I might feel bad! Was there anything in the post-game about Kyle's gimpiness?

superdave
02-14-2011, 09:25 AM
It's funny how things can take a complete 180 turn during the season. I recall in Phase I, there was the topic AGENDAS. At the time I posted about the large amount of talent we had and how self impossed pressure could effect some kids. For awhile it looked to me like Seth was fitting that concept to a t, as Andre was getting the rave reviews along with the bulk of the playing time. Now it's Andre who appears lost in the shuffle and Seth has had two strong outings in a row.

Hopefully both kids will be able get their games going at the same time, it only makes us that much better as a team.

This is an issue with each and every team. Watch how Unc plays minus LDII. Addition by subtraction? Sometimes a kid can drag his own personal thundercloud into the locker room. As Duke fans, we've seen that before.

But I think two factors help Duke with Agendas: First, Coach K. Second, a lot of these kids were not rotation players during last year's title run or if they were, they played somewhat sparingly. So they're hungry.

COYS
02-14-2011, 09:40 AM
This is an issue with each and every team. Watch how Unc plays minus LDII. Addition by subtraction? Sometimes a kid can drag his own personal thundercloud into the locker room. As Duke fans, we've seen that before.

But I think two factors help Duke with Agendas: First, Coach K. Second, a lot of these kids were not rotation players during last year's title run or if they were, they played somewhat sparingly. So they're hungry.

Dre's body language while he was sitting on the bench during the second half of the UNC game was anything but sour-puss, despite the fact that Curry was on the court for most of the half. He was jumping out of his chair and cheering at least as much as Kyrie (and Kyrie's cheerleading exploits have already been well documented). No doubt that players want to play, so to speak. But I think that 'Dre will be just fine. I also suspect that he will have more than a couple double figure scoring nights in the very near future. Also, it's not as if his minutes have dried up. He's still getting significant minutes every game. He'll work through this current slump and deliver some big performances when we need it most.

MChambers
02-14-2011, 10:15 AM
Dre's body language while he was sitting on the bench during the second half of the UNC game was anything but sour-puss, despite the fact that Curry was on the court for most of the half. He was jumping out of his chair and cheering at least as much as Kyrie (and Kyrie's cheerleading exploits have already been well documented). No doubt that players want to play, so to speak. But I think that 'Dre will be just fine. I also suspect that he will have more than a couple double figure scoring nights in the very near future. Also, it's not as if his minutes have dried up. He's still getting significant minutes every game. He'll work through this current slump and deliver some big performances when we need it most.

Andre had a big game the last time we played UVa, so maybe he does it again Wednesday.

lotusland
02-14-2011, 02:33 PM
What are your thoughts after the Miami game? Seth's defense was incredible today - even better than his offense actually. He is making it really hard to play Tyler and Andre more (39 minutes, 5 steals, 4 3s).

I do hope to see Andre get into a groove. His 3 point % is down to 43.6% from up over 50 into January. He occasionally makes a move to the basket that I find encouraging which is probably the key for him to become more than a spot up shooter.

I really see guys focusing on what their contribution is and playing within those roles. They are maturing this month in a big way.

I agree with your assessment and also hope Dre can carve out a role on this team as Seth, Ryan, Miles, Maso and Tyler have done.

Kedsy
02-14-2011, 03:01 PM
The first Unc game closes out Phase III. We won ten games and lost two in Phase III (Florida State and St Johns). Phase IV runs from the Miami game on 2/13 through the second Unc game on 3/5.

Building on the previous Phase threads this season, here's a look at where we are right now and where we can go.

1. Can we stay healthy?
2. Will free throws be a problem?
3. How will this team operate in late game situations?
4. Deeeeefense!
5. How well will we diversify our offense?
6. Will we develop that killer instinct?
7. Who makes The Leap?
8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?


Good job, Superdave. Obviously by the end of this phase our team will have to be ready for the postseason. Will we be ready? I expect so, and you've hit most of the important questions, the biggest one of course being will Kyrie return and if he does how will we reintegrate him.

But I would like to add two factors that I think will have a lot of impact on our overall success.

(A) When will Andre emerge from his slump? After the Miami game, according to Pomeroy we only have two individual weapons that rank in the top 50 in the country: Mason's defensive rebounding (21st in the nation) and Andre's Offensive Rating (still 44th in the nation despite his recent slump). Seth has seemingly turned a corner in his last few games, and that's great. But I'd love to see us utilize Andre's offensive efficiency better than we have the past three weeks. If both Seth and Andre are on, then we have a very potent offense, even without Kyrie. As an added bonus, Andre seems to play better defense when he's shooting well.

I don't think Seth and Andre are interchangeable or mutually exclusive. Here's hoping Andre breaks out this week.

(B) Will we play as a team when things look bleak? After the Carolina game, Coach K said a few things that really resonated with me:

First, he said, "We kind of set a tone of attacking together instead of attacking individually and it worked out."

Second, he said about the trouble in the first half and how they had to adjust: "When you go like that you’re not coordinated and it was more to get a coordinated effort on the offensive and defensive ends."

It struck me that's exactly what went wrong against St. Johns, and to a lesser extent FSU. We got behind and the players all tried to bring the team back all by themselves. Like a baseball player, when his team is down, coming up to the plate and trying to hit a five-run homer, when what his team really needs is a whole bunch of singles.

And not just on offense, either. Especially against St. Johns (and again in the first half against UNC) we weren't playing good team defense, but instead everyone seemed like they were trying to make the individual big play.

Obviously, the team took the message to heart in the second half against UNC. And we certainly looked like a team against Miami. If our players have learned this lesson and take the concept to heart, then I feel really, really good about our chances for the rest of the season, with or without Kyrie. If they revert to individualism when the chips are down, then I might be worried about a St. Johns redux at exactly the wrong time.

They know what it feels like to do it right, from the Carolina game, and Coach K is a master communicator, so things are looking up in this regard. But I'd feel more comfortable if the lesson is reinforced for the rest of this phase.

superdave
02-14-2011, 03:17 PM
(A) When will Andre emerge from his slump? After the Miami game, according to Pomeroy we only have two individual weapons that rank in the top 50 in the country: Mason's defensive rebounding (21st in the nation) and Andre's Offensive Rating (still 44th in the nation despite his recent slump). Seth has seemingly turned a corner in his last few games, and that's great. But I'd love to see us utilize Andre's offensive efficiency better than we have the past three weeks. If both Seth and Andre are on, then we have a very potent offense, even without Kyrie. As an added bonus, Andre seems to play better defense when he's shooting well.

I don't think Seth and Andre are interchangeable or mutually exclusive. Here's hoping Andre breaks out this week.

My first thought when Miami came out in a zone was Andre should be able to get some good looks and break that thing up. Alas. I dont think we need to run plays or sets for Andre, just find him when gets some daylight. Three good ways to find Andre - First, on the break if he goes to the 3 point line. Second, when Seth or Nolan pentrates. Third, when a big man gets the ball in the post (or even high post) and looks opposite. We know he's not shy about pulling the trigger!

gam7
02-14-2011, 07:57 PM
Good thing I dont believe in jinxes, or I might feel bad! Was there anything in the post-game about Kyle's gimpiness?

Not a word about his ankle in the post-game. Looks like a non-issue for now.

Newton_14
02-14-2011, 09:29 PM
Building on the previous Phase threads this season, here's a look at where we are right now and where we can go.

1. Can we stay healthy?

3. How will this team operate in late game situations?

4. Deeeeefense!

[5. How well will we diversify our offense?
D. 3rd scorer?
7. Who makes The Leap?
8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?



Good job Superdave. Excellent write up. I picked a few of your key points to comment on.

1. Can we stay healthy?
This is still key. My heart dropped last night when I saw Kyle go down. I was very afraid it was the knee. I am not convinced at all that his knee is a 100% anyway. I feel that is part of the reason his shot has suffered a bit this year. Nolan I was not worried about. It is vital though, to have a healthy Nolan and healthy Kyle the rest of the way. Injuries to either one would be devastating.

3. How will this team operate in late game situations?
I really love our options and what we have done so far in this area. Nolan is such a stud in this situation and extremely difficult to stop. Having Seth and Kyle perched on the wings make defending the high post set with Nolan a nightmare for opposing teams. I feel good with a lead late and the ball that's for sure.

4. Deeeeefense!
This is my biggest fear with this group. We are a very good defensive team when the guys are focused, and working as a team on defense. However, when they lose that focus, they get torched ala the St John's game and first half of the UNC game. K always stresses communication and with this group, it is vital. We have to communicate, yelling out switches, rotating on time, and recognizing quicker when a teammate is beat. Our guards have to stay in front of their man, the bigs must battle and stay in strong positions like they did in the 2nd half of the UNC game, and we must close out on shooters.

[5. How well will we diversify our offense?
I have noticed a nice trend here. In our last 3 Conference road games, we have shared the ball really well and found a way to get balanced scoring. Involving Mason and Miles down low for post scores, getting Ryan mid-range jumpers and 3's, drive and pull up's for Seth, and 3's for Seth, all without really impacting Nolan and Kyle's scoring. Very refreshing and I hope we build on it and add some Andre to the mix. There is so much firepower available, if we can find a way to effectively use it, we go to another level. It takes much pressure off the aforementioned defense too. Something to watch as we head down the stretch.
D. 3rd scorer? and Who Makes the Leap
I combined these 2 categories because I think we are watching it happen right now and it is the same answer to both questions. Welcome Seth Curry. Your timing is impeccable! Watching him last night against Miami I was struck by how high his confidence level has risen. Seth is coming into his own and it is affecting every part of his game. His ball handling looked great last night. Watching him while Nolan was out, he was pushing the ball on every possession and there was no sign of being tentative running the point like we saw earlier in the year. I really think Seth turned the corner in the UNC game and will be really good the rest of the way giving us 14+ points per game or more each night

8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?
Newton_14 will be very happy that is for sure. Kyrie is a great weapon. I think he starts out in a 6th man role and eases his way back into a starting role. If he gets his legs back he will likely be very similar to the player we saw the first 8 games. I am channeling Ozzie and remaining OpTOEmistic that we get Kyrie back late in the regular season and this teams rises up to a team that is awfully hard to beat.

superdave
02-14-2011, 10:19 PM
3. How will this team operate in late game situations?
I really love our options and what we have done so far in this area. Nolan is such a stud in this situation and extremely difficult to stop. Having Seth and Kyle perched on the wings make defending the high post set with Nolan a nightmare for opposing teams. I feel good with a lead late and the ball that's for sure.

4. Deeeeefense!
This is my biggest fear with this group. We are a very good defensive team when the guys are focused, and working as a team on defense. However, when they lose that focus, they get torched ala the St John's game and first half of the UNC game. K always stresses communication and with this group, it is vital. We have to communicate, yelling out switches, rotating on time, and recognizing quicker when a teammate is beat. Our guards have to stay in front of their man, the bigs must battle and stay in strong positions like they did in the 2nd half of the UNC game, and we must close out on shooters.



Two questions:

First, down 4 with 2 minutes to go, how does this team react?

Second, does this quad have the focus and fortitude to play excellent defense for an entire 65 possession game in the NCAAs?

Newton_14
02-14-2011, 11:05 PM
Two questions:

First, down 4 with 2 minutes to go, how does this team react?

Second, does this quad have the focus and fortitude to play excellent defense for an entire 65 possession game in the NCAAs?

On question 1, I think they get it done. Nolan and Kyle will keep them from panicking. Nolan will get the points needed to erase the 4 point deficit, Kyle will lead the defense to insure they get the stops needed.

On question 2, if the tourney started today, my answer would be NO. That is why I am hoping the offense improves enough down the stretch to ease the burden on the defense. If that happens and the focus on defense gets just a little bit better during that time, I will change my answer.

Kedsy
02-14-2011, 11:26 PM
Nolan will get the points needed to erase the 4 point deficit, Kyle will lead the defense to insure they get the stops needed.

I hope you're right. The key is the D. All of our losses over the past several years look the same in this respect: we fall behind because of both poor offense and defense, and at some point our offense comes around but our defense never does. As bad as we looked against St. Johns, if we'd come together and played solid team defense, even if just for the last 10 minutes, we would have made it a game. And Kyle was just as guilty as Nolan and everyone else at trying to bring us back all by himself and not seeming to buy in to our team defensive concepts.

Against UNC, we did come together as a team, and now our players know how that feels. If we remember, then I think everything else will be fine.

Newton_14
02-15-2011, 08:32 AM
I hope you're right. The key is the D. All of our losses over the past several years look the same in this respect: we fall behind because of both poor offense and defense, and at some point our offense comes around but our defense never does. As bad as we looked against St. Johns, if we'd come together and played solid team defense, even if just for the last 10 minutes, we would have made it a game. And Kyle was just as guilty as Nolan and everyone else at trying to bring us back all by himself and not seeming to buy in to our team defensive concepts.

Against UNC, we did come together as a team, and now our players know how that feels. If we remember, then I think everything else will be fine.

Bear in mind I was speaking specifically to Superdave's question about being down 4 with 2 minutes to go.

As for games where we fall behind early, agree that is totally different. Team defense is critical to how far this team can go, but can be offset somewhat if the offense continues to evolve, and we get scoring from multiple places consistently.

I agree 100% on your observation about abandoning the team concept in the St Johns debacle..

superdave
02-15-2011, 09:50 AM
We were down 39-17 (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/college/2001/ncaa_tourney/news/2001/03/31/duke_maryland_ap/)in that one. But we dont quite have a defensive quarterback like Battier. (Has anyone else, ever?)

I dont think last year's team was capable in February of playing a full 65 possession game with great defense. They eventually did vs. Baylor and Butler. I think this year's team can play great D for 10 minute stretches then might lose a little focus. If you can string together four 10 minute stretches, that's a game! The key is re-focusing and re-grouping.

I do agree with Newton's sentiment though that our offense this year can take some pressure off our D. I think Miles willingness and ability to throw his weight around a little and lean on guys could be really helpful. If he can do that, while staying out of foul trouble, that will wear out some opponents bigs. Imagine Zeller floating outside after Miles drapes across him (a la Zoubek) for the first 10 minutes.

superdave
02-28-2011, 12:30 PM
Two questions:

First, down 4 with 2 minutes to go, how does this team react?

Second, does this squad have the focus and fortitude to play excellent defense for an entire 65 possession game in the NCAAs?


On question 1, I think they get it done. Nolan and Kyle will keep them from panicking. Nolan will get the points needed to erase the 4 point deficit, Kyle will lead the defense to insure they get the stops needed.

On question 2, if the tourney started today, my answer would be NO. That is why I am hoping the offense improves enough down the stretch to ease the burden on the defense. If that happens and the focus on defense gets just a little bit better during that time, I will change my answer.


I hope you're right. The key is the D. All of our losses over the past several years look the same in this respect: we fall behind because of both poor offense and defense, and at some point our offense comes around but our defense never does. As bad as we looked against St. Johns, if we'd come together and played solid team defense, even if just for the last 10 minutes, we would have made it a game. And Kyle was just as guilty as Nolan and everyone else at trying to bring us back all by himself and not seeming to buy in to our team defensive concepts.

Against UNC, we did come together as a team, and now our players know how that feels. If we remember, then I think everything else will be fine.

Against VT, we were up 55-50 at the 6:11 mark. VT closed out on a 14-5 run where they got 6 offensive rebounds and forced us into 3 TOs and 2-11 on FGs including some point blank misses. Coach K said our offense let us down, which makes sense considering we held them to 64 points. The ball was not bouncing our way certainly, but 5 points over 6 minutes? Ouch.

Super "Still shaking my head" Dave

Kedsy
02-28-2011, 12:34 PM
Against VT, we were up 55-50 at the 6:11 mark. VT closed out on a 14-5 run where they got 6 offensive rebounds and forced us into 3 TOs and 2-11 on FGs including some point blank misses. Coach K said our offense let us down, which makes sense considering we held them to 64 points. The ball was not bouncing our way certainly, but 5 points over 6 minutes? Ouch.

Super "Still shaking my head" Dave

Well, our offense may have let us down in the last few minutes, but so did our defense. 14 points in 6 minutes? Not too many stops if Va Tech was scoring 2.3 points per minute, as compared with around 1.5 for the first 34 minutes.

CDu
02-28-2011, 12:42 PM
Well, our offense may have let us down in the last few minutes, but so did our defense. 14 points in 6 minutes? Not too many stops if Va Tech was scoring 2.3 points per minute, as compared with around 1.5 for the first 34 minutes.

I was going to say the same thing. Overall, our defense was solid. However, giving up 14 points in the final 6 minutes is bad defense. That works out to over 90 points over the course of the game. The offense was abysmal down the stretch, too. And we can't even blame it on fouling late - VT only hit 2 free throws in the final 4 minutes of the game.

Over the course of the game, I'd say it was poor offense that cost us the game. Over the final 6 minutes of the game, it was a combination of especially poor offense and very poor defense.

superdave
02-28-2011, 01:02 PM
I thought losing the boards did it. We lost the boards on both ends. Jeff Allen just ate up space. We had 29 defensive rebounds while VT had 16 offensive rebounds - so they grabbed 16/45 which is a little more than 1/3rd. Although they only had 11 second chance points, they managed to control the tempo of the game and slow down our offense.

The big guys had been playing so well too. We need to channel the 2nd half of the Unc game again! We scored well and controlled the paint down the stretch of that one.

gam7
02-28-2011, 01:02 PM
Prior to the VT game, we had won every single game this season in which we held a second half lead. At St. John's, we were nowhere close to taking a lead. At FSU, we pulled even a couple of times but never took a lead. I know that once we had a 5-6 point lead at VT, I consciously thought, "alright, we know how to put games away once we grab a lead. This game is ours." I think there may have been just a little bit of a mental letdown that spiraled out of control once the crowd got involved. I think one of the lessons learned from this game is that our guys should never, ever lose their edge, particularly on the road. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

superdave
03-09-2011, 03:27 PM
Duke finished Phase IV with a 5-2 record with losses at VT and at Unc and two road wins. Here's a quick take on where we are-

1. Can we stay healthy?
Kyle has been in an extended shooting slump. Although he continues to contribute defensively and with rebounding, Duke needs Kyle to knock down jumpshots. He's missing both good looks and contested jumpers. I do wonder if he has a gimpy knee or ankle that's keeping him from getting enough lift or explosiveness. This is a big concern going forward.

2. Will free throws be a problem?
Probably not.

3. How will this team operate in late game situations? and 6. Will we develop that killer instinct?
The last 10 minutes of the VT game were bad. We could not get stops and we had some cringe-worthy TOs. We both gave up a lead and failed to get good looks while down. We expect more at this point in the season and hopefully the last two weeks inspire this team to keep their execution at a high level.

4. Deeeeefense!
The front line continues to play inconsistently on both ends, but we need to them protect the rim and rebound the most. Can we get enough offense at the 4 & 5 to be able to play our big lineup that is better defensively?

5. How well will we diversify our offense? and 7. Who makes The Leap?
Seth has made a few giant steps forward on offense while continuing to play really good on-the-ball D. He had the clunker vs. VT but bounced back quickly. He is the #3 scorer at this point and made a nice "Leap" but we need that every night from him.

8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?
We may find out in the next few weeks....who really knows?

I most concerned with the team's focus. We are in one-and-done territory so we can no longer afford the slow starts, extended minutes without FGs, and simple mistakes on both ends. It's time to clean up the play and execute at a high level over and over (and over). This squad can do it but it has to happen now.

loldevilz
03-09-2011, 04:04 PM
1. Can we stay healthy?
Yes, except for Kyrie obviously.
2. Will free throws be a problem?
Nope. I think Mason has made some progress. Three point shooting seems to be the real problem.
3. How will this team operate in late game situations?
Its been Smith and Singler shooting 3s. Not ideal.
4. Deeeeefense!
Interior defense has been horrible. Ryan Kelly is particular has really regressed. And we are giving up too many offensive rebounds to more aggressive teams.
5. How well will we diversify our offense?
Seth has made a huge jump. He is playing fantastic now.
6. Will we develop that killer instinct?
I'm not sure we have it yet. The team still has a ways to go.
7. Who makes The Leap?
I am really hoping for Miles Plumlee to make the leap. I thought Miles played a great game at UNC( as he did when we played UNC at home). He hit some jump shots, played aggressively on offense, and rebounded with toughness. I think that his experience last year cannot be overlooked. With Kelly slumping I think its time to move Miles into the starting lineup.
8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?
I think he comes off the bench as a supersub. He slowly will get integrated getting 15-20 minutes a game. At this point I'm not sure we can really whole switch back to our previous style.

DukieInBrasil
03-09-2011, 07:35 PM
1. Can we stay healthy?
Yes, except for Kyrie obviously.
2. Will free throws be a problem?
Nope. I think Mason has made some progress. Three point shooting seems to be the real problem.
3. How will this team operate in late game situations?
Its been Smith and Singler shooting 3s. Not ideal.
4. Deeeeefense!
Interior defense has been horrible. Ryan Kelly is particular has really regressed. And we are giving up too many offensive rebounds to more aggressive teams.
5. How well will we diversify our offense?
Seth has made a huge jump. He is playing fantastic now.
6. Will we develop that killer instinct?
I'm not sure we have it yet. The team still has a ways to go.
7. Who makes The Leap?
I am really hoping for Miles Plumlee to make the leap. I thought Miles played a great game at UNC( as he did when we played UNC at home). He hit some jump shots, played aggressively on offense, and rebounded with toughness. I think that his experience last year cannot be overlooked. With Kelly slumping I think its time to move Miles into the starting lineup.
8. What happens if Kyrie comes back?
I think he comes off the bench as a supersub. He slowly will get integrated getting 15-20 minutes a game. At this point I'm not sure we can really whole switch back to our previous style.
I agree on your analysis and especially like your idea of starting Miles again, although except for the UNC game he has been as much or more of a liability than Ryan. If Ryan isn't hitting jumpers his on-court value plummets. He blocks shots pretty well and doesn't gamble for steals and get burned a la MPs, but his interior D is poor, at best. I like the idea of starting Miles just for a tougher inside presence to start the game, to send a message that we are tough. Ryan can come off the bench and if he hits a jumper or two can stretch the D out and cause consternation for the opponent. If he doesn't hit any jumpers, ok, he still plays smart ball and can be a good match for the opposing bench interior players. We need more toughness to start games and that means Miles over Ryan, even if Ryan ends up playing more minutes.