PDA

View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs. Carolina Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



Pages : [1] 2

moonpie23
02-05-2011, 09:17 PM
i waited until the unc was the NEXT game before starting this...


how will the crazies greet you-know-who?

list your suggestions here..


mine: silence.......DEAD silence ......with backs turned...


enjoy...

Bob Green
02-05-2011, 09:58 PM
Discuss the Big Game here! Yes, Carolina has been surging but I expect Wednesday night to be the toughest test they have faced this season. LGD!!!

NovaScotian
02-05-2011, 10:47 PM
after a quietly lackluster second half, i'm a little worried that duke might come out flat against nc. still, those clowns did just lost drew too, so anything could happen.

Kedsy
02-05-2011, 11:00 PM
after a quietly lackluster second half, i'm a little worried that duke might come out flat against nc.

Well, I suppose it is possible we'll come out flat against our arch-rivals. But if we do it won't have anything to do with the 2nd half against NCSU.

dukebluelemur
02-05-2011, 11:09 PM
9F
That is all.

NashvilleDevil
02-05-2011, 11:20 PM
after a quietly lackluster second half, i'm a little worried that duke might come out flat against nc. still, those clowns did just lost drew too, so anything could happen.

I think they started looking ahead to UNC in the 2nd half. It seems that Carolina has started to find their stride against the weaker ACC teams. I am looking forward to seeing how the freshmen handle playing in Cameron.

weezie
02-05-2011, 11:24 PM
I would have preferred a more full-throated "GTHC GTH" at the end of the state game tonight. Kind of lame. Better bring it Crazies!
Let loose the dogs of war!!!!!!:mad:

OldPhiKap
02-05-2011, 11:34 PM
after a quietly lackluster second half, i'm a little worried that duke might come out flat against nc. still, those clowns did just lost drew too, so anything could happen.

Only if we're up 20+ like we were tonight.

Show no mercy.

9F.

Stratrat
02-05-2011, 11:56 PM
after a quietly lackluster second half, i'm a little worried that duke might come out flat against nc. still, those clowns did just lost drew too, so anything could happen.

We will perform with our best focus and most intensity. Coach K will have us foaming at the mouth and I expect our very best. Our senior leadership will have us at the exact right mind set to compete at our highest level. Even our freshmen know that you leave it all on the floor in this game. Of course we all enjoyed the 32 point whipping we gave them last year but I enjoy beating them so much more when they are good. They are playing well and it will be so much more satisfying this year.

-bdbd
02-05-2011, 11:58 PM
First off, watch the NC@CH versus FSU game on Sunday afternoon for any lessons to be learned for Duke's strategy for next Wed. Personally, I look for us to really work on Marshall, wear him down, force him to work on the D-end, etc. I'd love to see Tyler guarding him a lot, but I'm sure it will be a team effort. The Kyle-HB match-up should be huge (but I like the Senior's chances there). On the front line, which is their strength, I see us matching up well. This is one time I sure like our frontline depth! Mason has been really strong of late, and we'll need more of that Wed. night.

But I see the deciding factor being our strength and depth at the 1-2 and possibly 3. If we're hitting our shots from outside - which I expect to be the case at home - they don't have the horses to keep up with us on the perimeter.

It'll be interesting to see if they aren't looking ahead tomnorrow... This should be a good one!!

:rolleyes: ;) :eek:

shoutingncu
02-06-2011, 12:55 AM
...It seems that Carolina has started to find their stride against the weaker ACC teams.

This is the part that concerns me for Carolina... before we go ranking a team that's won 9 of 10, let's look at the nine they beat. Hardly resume building. I think tomorrow against FSU will be telling.


I am looking forward to seeing how the freshmen handle playing in Cameron.

Hasn't one of them played there already? ;)

In the end... I (obviously) hope that Carolina wins, and think that it's possible when our frontcourt outscores yours by more than your backcourt outscores ours.

cptnflash
02-06-2011, 07:36 AM
how will the crazies greet you-know-who?

list your suggestions here..


mine: silence.......DEAD silence ......with backs turned...

I love this idea.

Saratoga2
02-06-2011, 08:56 AM
This will be a tough game for us and will take our best for 40 minutes. Inside they have Zellar and Henson who should be able to make it tough for Mason to score inside. Henson has the athletic ability to block shots and Zellar has a lot of size. Will it be Mason and Ryan starting>

Harrison Barnes has woken up of late. It appears that Singler will need to stay on him to keep his numbers down. That will be an interesting matchup, with Kyle probably having the advantage.

Marshall being defended by who? Maybe we will keep fresh troops on him, such as Tyler and Nolan. Make his life difficult and tire him so that he will weaken defensively.

When Bullock gets in, who do we have to guard him? Andre is not under such a size disadvantage as the others would be (Seth, Tyler or even Nolan). It will be interesting.

I doubt if we see a lot of Josh in the game, but we may be best off to try to run them and beat them at their own game.

Bob Green
02-06-2011, 09:41 AM
This will be a tough game for us and will take our best for 40 minutes.

I agree this is going to be a tough match-up. Two months ago it appeared we would easily topple the Heels this year but now victory is not a foregone conclusion. The players are going to have to play 40 minutes of focused hard nosed basketball.


Inside they have Zellar and Henson who should be able to make it tough for Mason to score inside. Henson has the athletic ability to block shots and Zellar has a lot of size.

Carolina is long and lean inside and will be prepared for Nolan Smith driving the lane. I expect the Heels will collapse on Smith to try to force him into bad shots. Smith needs to kick the ball to Singler, Dawkins and Curry who will have open looks with the defense collapsing on Smith. Dawkins is the ACC's leading 3-PT shooter so we need him taking more shots. Hey Nolan, when we get out in transition, look for Andre on the wing. He is there and he is wide open so pass the ball to him for an easy three points.


Harrison Barnes has woken up of late. It appears that Singler will need to stay on him to keep his numbers down. That will be an interesting matchup, with Kyle probably having the advantage.

Singler should smoother Barnes and take him out of the game the same way he made Scott Wood a non-factor yesterday. Singler is tough as nails, he is an Ironman, and I really want to see the Senior dominate the Freshman and demonstrate to the basketball world who is the real All-American!


Marshall being defended by who? Maybe we will keep fresh troops on him, such as Tyler and Nolan. Make his life difficult and tire him so that he will weaken defensively.

The top priority has to be applying relentless pressure on Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland. The best way to stop Zeller from scoring inside is to deny him the ball by turning over the point guard. Point guard is Carolina's weakness so we must exploit this weakness early and often. With Larry Drew II quitting on his team Carolina's weakness at point guard is increased.


When Bullock gets in, who do we have to guard him? Andre is not under such a size disadvantage as the others would be (Seth, Tyler or even Nolan). It will be interesting.

We cannot allow Bullock and McDonald to come off the bench with energy and spark a Carolina rally. Dawkins, Curry and Ryan Kelly need to play aggressive defense as both Bullock and McDonald can bury the 3-ball. Preventing open looks by keeping a hand in the shooters face is a must on Wednesday night.

Even with the improvement Carolina has shown recently, I believe Duke is a much more talented team and will win this game, but make no mistake the Heels will be fired up and ready to play as they haven't even begun to forget about the 32 point butt whipping we laid on them last year. We need to jump on these guys early with a demoralizing blitz and stay focused for the whole 40 minutes.

Ken Pomeroy gives us a 82% chance of winning and predicts an 83-73 final score. I like Duke to win by 12 - 15 points, but I hope it is by a lot more. :cool:

Reddevil
02-06-2011, 11:05 AM
All I know is that out of the blue it going to be in the mid 50's here today, and close to 60 degrees tomorrow....coincidence? Well, they're also calling for snow starting Wednesday night. What fiendishness could be behind this?:confused:

jipops
02-06-2011, 11:08 AM
First off, watch the NC@CH versus FSU game on Sunday afternoon for any lessons to be learned for Duke's strategy for next Wed.

FSU is a completely different team on the road than at home. UNC should have very little trouble in dispensing with the Noles.

Indoor66
02-06-2011, 11:33 AM
i waited until the unc was the NEXT game before starting this...


how will the crazies greet you-know-who?

list your suggestions here..


mine: silence.......DEAD silence ......with backs turned...


enjoy...

He should be treated exactly the same as every other unc player. No distinction. Additionally, I don't think the Crazies should have any comment about the Drew II situation. It is not a Duke-unc issue, it is a unc issue. Let them handle it.

HateCarolina
02-06-2011, 08:38 PM
We will perform with our best focus and most intensity. Coach K will have us foaming at the mouth and I expect our very best. Our senior leadership will have us at the exact right mind set to compete at our highest level. Even our freshmen know that you leave it all on the floor in this game. Of course we all enjoyed the 32 point whipping we gave them last year but I enjoy beating them so much more when they are good. They are playing well and it will be so much more satisfying this year.

I expect that you're dead eye on with this one. For once we'll be as or more pumped up than the other team. I mean think about it...every time any other team is coming in to play us this is how they're pumped. 9F...9F...9F!!! Go BLUE DEVILS!!!


He should be treated exactly the same as every other unc player. No distinction. Additionally, I don't think the Crazies should have any comment about the Drew II situation. It is not a Duke-unc issue, it is a unc issue. Let them handle it.

What is this nonsense you speak of? :p I hope the CC's come up with original "cheers" for both HB as well as something good to remind them of Withdrew2.

ChicagoHeel
02-06-2011, 08:59 PM
You are the reigning NC and thus have a number of big games under your belt, are the more experienced team, and playing at home. That's a huge advantage. Our biggest advantage is that we have nothing to lose. Perhaps that means we will play loose. I am sure duke will be fired up but sometimes that can work against a team or player (e.g. Kobe game 7 last year). Seems to have happened on senior night in the recent past.

Biggest key for us is surviving the first ten minutes. You come out stroking it from three and it could be ugly.

dukebluelemur
02-06-2011, 09:03 PM
I love this idea.

Silence does not work. It has been tried. It is impossible to get everyone on the same page, and even if you didn't the visiting fans would not cooperate. The crowd just ends up sounding subdued and quiet, it has no real impact, because you cant get close enough to actual silence.

dukelifer
02-06-2011, 09:40 PM
You are the reigning NC and thus have a number of big games under your belt, are the more experienced team, and playing at home. That's a huge advantage. Our biggest advantage is that we have nothing to lose. Perhaps that means we will play loose. I am sure duke will be fired up but sometimes that can work against a team or player (e.g. Kobe game 7 last year). Seems to have happened on senior night in the recent past.

Biggest key for us is surviving the first ten minutes. You come out stroking it from three and it could be ugly.

It will be interesting to see how the Heels handle a fight. This should be a close game but one team could steam roll the other. UNC is winning big lately and the basket is huge when that happens. So the key is to get them in a fight and keep it tight. In a closed thread I noted that UNC and Duke are national championship contenders. I say this because I don't really see a dominant team on the national scene. UNC has balance and is capable of a run in March. But of course they need to be playing this well in a few weeks and a lot can happen. At the rate they are losing players this week- they could be playing the walkons in March - but make no mistake the young Heels are dangerous. Duke needs to break that confidence on Wed.

jipops
02-06-2011, 10:15 PM
Well the heels have found their full-time point guard to go with their NBA front court. This is the most talented team in the ACC, quite possibly the best. We have a slight edge in experience with our 2 seniors. But it does seem like UNC has a lot of other advantages like 1. having an actual true pg, 2. having ton of talent and length in the front court, 3. quite a few very, very good perimeter shooters in Bullock, Strickland, McDonald, and Barnes. It is quite scary to think about what this team with this much talent will be like next season, but I would rather not think about that.

This is a true test for Kendall. Can we pressure him into mistakes or will he be able to take advantage and get to open shooters? Can we disrupt UNC's perimeter game enough to where it will affect their front court play? Can our big guys deal with their big guys? Can we take care of the ball? Will we be able to get any kind of offensive flow against UNC's suffocating defense? Yeah, really... their defense is that good, more efficient than ours actually. As is their offense. It is a very difficult and challenging matchup for Duke against a team that has as much or more talent and is playing as well as anyone else in the country right now.

_Gary
02-06-2011, 10:20 PM
As I've said before, when Kyrie went down it was an early Christmas present to the Heels (and everyone else). But for that it wouldn't matter how well UNC has been playing lately - they'd be serious toast. But losing the best freshman in the nation has leveled the playing field. I'm sure Duke will come out with the correct mindset and energy level, but if they aren't shooting well I could easily see them losing this game. UNC will surely come out loose and I don't expect them to have a bad game.

It's just a shame we probably won't get to watch the kind of smack down we'd surely have seen but for that one moment in the Butler game back in December. :(

Go Duke!

strawbs
02-06-2011, 10:30 PM
in all honesty, carolina scares the hell out of me right now. You'd have to be blind to not realize that they are playing very well right now and admit that if our guys aren't on their game they could get beat. Henson worries me the most in that I don't think nolan will have nearly as easy a time finishing at the rim as he has to this point in the season.
It would be great to get him into foul trouble, and make sure we attack the hoop when he's not on the court.
I'm also not thrilled that Barnes and Bullock have finally shown signs of life lately (especially barnes), and yes I'm aware that the defenses they have been going against aren't great, sans FSU, but they have been able to gain confidence in their abilities.

Now after all that doom and gloom from me, I think we win by 10-15. I think Nolan and Kyle will both take pride in that they have very few games left at CIS, show a lot of senior leadership and both have big games. I also think Kyle will get the assignment to guard barnes and will be disciplined to not fall for barnes exaggerated head fakes and wont leave him for open shots.

The other thing that i think we really have going for us (besides being the better team), is that North Carolina hasn't faced a real crowd on the road since November 30th at Illinois. I have watched nearly all of UNC's games, and you can't tell me that they have faced a hostile crowd since that date, virginia's may have been the closest a month ago. You can throw out evansville (an obvious mismatch), Miami and georgia techs arenas were half full and boston college's crowd never showed up. Other than the evansville and BC games unc has trailed at halftime or been down large (14 to miami early although they were tied at the half) in the first half in all of those games. If they come out sleeping we will bury them. Barnes, Marshall, and Bullock will not have faced a crowd like ours in 2 months and UNC's chances will greatly depend on how they can handle the crazies.

I think we bring unc and all the idiots on IC back down to earth with a 81-68 victory. Kyle and Nolan both go for 20+, and i'm hoping andre drains a handful of 3's over bullock.

Bob Green
02-06-2011, 11:14 PM
in all honesty, carolina scares the hell out of me right now.

Carolina does not scare me. Carolina never scares me. I agree with the majority of your post but neither the fan base nor the players should ever be scared of Carolina. As long as we are focused and execute we will be fine. Our talent level is superior to their talent level.

sagegrouse
02-06-2011, 11:22 PM
Here's what I am interested in:

1. Will Kendall Marshall play at the same high level he did today against the Seminoles: 16 assists, 3 TOs, 3 steals? Or will there be some normal regression to his season averages?

2. Can Duke stop Dexter Strickland, who appears to be the only Tar Heel slasher?

3. Kyle vs. Barnes will be worth the price of admission alone. Barnes against FSU continued his run of good games (17 and 10). Will it continue with the pressure of Cameron and Kyle's defense?

4. Will Duke's sharpshooters be on target? Andre, Seth, Nolan and Kyle can all hit the three -- will they?

5. The Duke front court against the vaunted Heels will be a tough test for Duke. Can the Plumlees and Ryan control Zeller, Henson, and Knox?

sagegrouse

gumbomoop
02-06-2011, 11:46 PM
Marshall impressed me from the beginning with his great passing, abetted by the fact that as soon as he gets the ball, he looks up and sees the entire floor. He also possesses the ability to get the ball to the post and to shooters from a variety of angles, with a nice variety of passes. Strickland is a big drop as the now-backup, so it will be interesting to see whether the intensity of the game has any effect on Marshall's stamina and therefore court time. For that matter, I'm thinking that intensity plays to Duke's favor, as the Devils "get everyone's best shot" and so have rather more experience with intensity than this year's Heels, who have sort of snuck up on folks.

I'll be curious to see whether our defenders overplay both Henson and Marshall to the left. From the snippets of Heel games I've watched, it seems those 2 lefties don't go much to their right. But I could be mistaken in this impression, so would love to hear voices who know more about this factor. The several UNC posters could surely enlighten me on this, unless this would be giving away too much valuable inside info.

strawbs
02-06-2011, 11:52 PM
Carolina does not scare me. Carolina never scares me. I agree with the majority of your post but neither the fan base nor the players should ever be scared of Carolina. As long as we are focused and execute we will be fine. Our talent level is superior to their talent level.

Bob you served in the US Navy, of course Carolina doesn't scare you! :)

But you are right, saying they scare me was the wrong choice of words. Im 100% positive that the players are not scared of them. The coaching staff will put a great game plan together and the players will execute it.

GTHC GTH!

Class of '94
02-07-2011, 12:37 AM
Well the heels have found their full-time point guard to go with their NBA front court. This is the most talented team in the ACC, quite possibly the best. We have a slight edge in experience with our 2 seniors. But it does seem like UNC has a lot of other advantages like 1. having an actual true pg, 2. having ton of talent and length in the front court, 3. quite a few very, very good perimeter shooters in Bullock, Strickland, McDonald, and Barnes. It is quite scary to think about what this team with this much talent will be like next season, but I would rather not think about that.

I'm not trying to be combative or overly argumentative, but I just don't see how one can say UNC is the most talented team in the ACC and has the best frontcourt. First of all, Duke is the defending national champion with 2 potential all-american, ACCPOY and NPOY candidates. Then combine that with talented shooters and athletic bigmen; and IMO you have the best and most talented team in the ACC. IMO Duke has the deeper and more talented perimeter and I feel that duke matches up with UNC in the front court very well. Mason neutralizes Henson; and while Tyler Zeller has an edge over Ryan or Miles in terms of inside offensive ability, I think offset Tyler can be offset by committee between Ryan, Miles and Josh. Justin Knox and the Watts kid give Carolina some depth in the frontcout; but they're not overwhelming players. At Cameron and with the talent that we have, I believe Duke will win by double digits against UNC.

shoutingncu
02-07-2011, 12:37 AM
...Other than the evansville game...

I was at that game. Stadium was at minimum 25% Carolina, and I'd guess closer to 33%.

jsw12
02-07-2011, 01:03 AM
I think it's interesting that Tyler Thorton and Kendall Marshall have a history going back to high school. The consensus was that Tyler got the better of those match ups. Will that experience help Duke, especially on the defensive end? Marshall has surely become the key player for the heels. If Tyler can disrupt him, it would go along way to breaking their current offensive momentum.

JohnGalt
02-07-2011, 05:25 AM
Well the heels have found their full-time point guard to go with their NBA front court. This is the most talented team in the ACC, quite possibly the best. We have a slight edge in experience with our 2 seniors. But it does seem like UNC has a lot of other advantages like 1. having an actual true pg, 2. having ton of talent and length in the front court, 3. quite a few very, very good perimeter shooters in Bullock, Strickland, McDonald, and Barnes. It is quite scary to think about what this team with this much talent will be like next season, but I would rather not think about that.

I have to say jipops that I don't agree with much of your first paragraph:

1. I'd argue the "slight edge in experience" of our seniors is, well, hardly slight. Not only was one Preseason POY, but the other is playing more like a potential candidate for Season POY every night. That doesn't even consider the fact that while most (or is it half, now?) of Carolina's squad was mired in nuclear meltdown, Nolan and Kyle were integral pieces of a NC team. Furthermore, the Plums, Kelly, and Andre all shared in at least a few minutes in those big game scenarios, some more than others. That HAS to count for something. And I trust that it will. Duke's "experience level" on paper may show we have similar numbers of under and upperclassmen as Carolina, but I'd argue that in actuality, the "experience level" pretty significantly favors Duke.

2. While I'm not in the camp that is ready to put the ball in Tyler's hands nor prepared to let him run the team, I'm not sure it gets anymore "pure" as a 1 than Tyler. His job - when in - is to facilitate the offense and allow Nolan to play off the ball (where some believe he's more comfortable). That, and play defense. It's been widely commented as being one of his strengths, and on this very board there was much ado wrt Tyler and Marshall's matchups last year. I didn't see them so I won't speculate, but the general consensus on this Board seemed to indicate Tyler's play coming out on top. Therefore, I’d argue we have at the very least a comparable (and perhaps even superior) “actual true pg” to their “actual true pg.” The only difference is we aren’t in the precarious position that dictates our starting a true, freshman point guard (that may not be completely ready) AND requiring heavy minutes of him. (That sounds weird considering how much we all wish Kyrie were healthy…)

3. Henson is long. I’ll give you that. But I have a hard time believing Zeller/Knox/Henson is substantially “longer” than Mason/Miles/ Kelly. After all, the latter averages about 3.5 bpg whereas the former averages about 4.5. Raw stats, but I’d say that advantage is a little overstated. I'd also bet our three's bpg per minute is higher than their three's bpg per minute, judging by how sneaky Kelly gets his hands on the ball.

4. Frankly, I’d be surprised if there were any team around the country that could match Duke, shooter for shooter. Seth and Andre are three-ball machines waiting to happen and, oftentimes, waiting to happen off the bench. That’s scary when that sort of offense is coming off the bench. Kyle and Kelly both provide mismatch issues as they can both step outside and knock down a three at any time, as well. And that doesn’t even count Miles who’s a career 100% 3pt shooter! (I know. I kid). Seriously though…sure, Carolina’s shooters have been finding their rhythm lately, but Duke’s shooters already have a track record. Advantage: Duke.

I know I probably just sound like a homer, but the truth of it is that the way Carolina’s been playing doesn’t make me nervous, so much as it makes me realize that they really are a quality team that really could beat us on any given night. I just happen to think we have more pieces to the puzzle than they do and, more often than not, we’ll come out with the W. As fun as it was, Carolina’s on the road to recovery. Phooey.

Either way, the [pantone 287] sky is not falling.

Saratoga2
02-07-2011, 07:31 AM
The way Miles has been playing, with his problem being strong with the ball and his overplay on defense, it is hard to see him as having an important role in this game. He is athletic and has a big body, so it is nice to have him as a backup, with 4 fouls to give, but I don't look for much beyond that. With his experience, it is too bad that he hasn't come around this year. There have been flashes, but nothing consistent.

flyingdutchdevil
02-07-2011, 07:42 AM
Here's what I am interested in:

1. Will Kendall Marshall play at the same high level he did today against the Seminoles: 16 assists, 3 TOs, 3 steals? Or will there be some normal regression to his season averages?

2. Can Duke stop Dexter Strickland, who appears to be the only Tar Heel slasher?

3. Kyle vs. Barnes will be worth the price of admission alone. Barnes against FSU continued his run of good games (17 and 10). Will it continue with the pressure of Cameron and Kyle's defense?

4. Will Duke's sharpshooters be on target? Andre, Seth, Nolan and Kyle can all hit the three -- will they?

5. The Duke front court against the vaunted Heels will be a tough test for Duke. Can the Plumlees and Ryan control Zeller, Henson, and Knox?

sagegrouse

Great set of questions. I'd like to add one more:

6. How will both teams deal with fouls? UNC has severely trimmed their rotation to 7 players (Watts isn't playing much and McDonald's minutes have been cut as well) and fouls, especially to their frontcourt, could be very costly. Although Duke's rotation is larger and slightly more diverse, how do we make sure that our key players aren't in foul trouble?

Nrrrrvous
02-07-2011, 08:02 AM
The way Miles has been playing, with his problem being strong with the ball and his overplay on defense, it is hard to see him as having an important role in this game. He is athletic and has a big body, so it is nice to have him as a backup, with 4 fouls to give, but I don't look for much beyond that. With his experience, it is too bad that he hasn't come around this year. There have been flashes, but nothing consistent.

Has he been called for a reach-in already?? ;)

gw67
02-07-2011, 08:11 AM
DBR stated in ACC Roundup that the Heels were done to a 7 man rotation. Unless one of them is hurt, I count three reserves that Williams uses off the bench - Knox, Bullock and McDonald. Knox is an excellent frontcourt reserve and the other two provide some scoring and rebounding on the perimeter.

gw67

Nrrrrvous
02-07-2011, 08:18 AM
anyone needed to be reminded of these.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arv-P1UyCyQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QfKjcZenGo

Required viewing for anyone going to the game just to make sure they don't take it easy on Reggie.

Andre needs to drain a couple of 3's right in front of him.

weezie
02-07-2011, 08:28 AM
The way Miles has been playing, with his problem being strong with the ball and his overplay on defense, it is hard to see him as having an important role in this game. He is athletic and has a big body, so it is nice to have him as a backup, with 4 fouls to give, but I don't look for much beyond that. With his experience, it is too bad that he hasn't come around this year. There have been flashes, but nothing consistent.

My good man! I truly hope you are having a nice meal of those words in about four days.
Miles is growing into the enforcer roll. Kind of a customs officer, at least that's MOO.

devildeac
02-07-2011, 08:29 AM
Has he been called for a reach-in already?? ;)

Not yet but I predict he will pick up an early one, perhaps in the lay-up line? Same for Ryan Kelly.

DevilWearsPrada
02-07-2011, 08:50 AM
I watched the Unc FSU game yesterday. Carolina attacked from the start. Kendall proved himself the worthy and deserving point guard, and had a terrific game vs the Noles. The HOLES and the NOLES.

And I thought that perhaps FSU would make a run in the 2nd half..... never happened. Reminded me so much of the Duke St Johns game.

Carolina just extended their lead. Kendall really excelled for the Holes. Thats what the Carolina fans have been Hawking about all season. They were right, in wanting Kendall to be the starting PG, not LD2. I watched the Unc games, and knew that.

Duke must come out strong from the tip of the game, and attack, and play good D, and get offensive and defensive rebounds. The BIGS... need to get the offensive rebound and make an easy bucket. Instead of always, kicking it back out.

BIGS play like Mike Gminski, Shane Battier, Brian Zoubeck, Carlos Boozer, Christian, etc.

The Holes will be hungry for a win. Since they were embarrassed last year, with the 82 50 blowout. The Cameron Crazies will be on their A game!!!!!!

And all the Cameron Crusties, need to take naps in the afternoon, so they will be alert, and stand up and cheer for the Blue Devils.

Saturday evening, I am cheering the entire game, waving the pompoms, and standing up almost everytime Duke scored!!! Everytime Towel Guy was on his feet, I was too!!!Lets get some spirit and enthusiam in the Upper Crust of Cameron!!!

And as always,

Lets Go Duke

davekay1971
02-07-2011, 09:00 AM
One thing has become abundantly clear over the past few Carolina games (and especially yesterday): Carolina is a much, much better team with Marshall running the point. Larry Drew The Second has probably helped Roy by leaving, in that there's now no question about who will run Carolina's point for the majority of minutes. Marshall looks very, very comfortable, and he's making their whole offense better.

I like Thornton guarding him, however. Tyler has the defensive ability to make Marshall uncomfortable, to limit his ability to get the Carolina players good looks. Thornton should be watching that FSU game closely and gearing himself up to stop Marshall. He can do it, and his defensive performance may be the most important aspect of this game.

As for the rest of the Heels, I think we match up well defensively. Agree completely with Bob that Singler can and should shut down (or at least severely limit) Barnes. I think the Plumlees and Kelly will do a very good job on Zeller and Henson. Curry, Dawkins, and Smith are all capable of preventing Bullock, McDonald, and Bullock from getting open looks on the wings. Therefore, if Thornton (and Nolan, when he's guarding Marshall) can keep Marshall in front of them and prevent him from getting those open looks for Carolina's shooters, we should be able to keep Carolina's offense from exploding the way they have against two lousy defensive teams (State and BC) and very good defensive team (FSU).

trinity92
02-07-2011, 09:03 AM
I know Ryan hasn't seen much playing time recently, and I'm not really sure why that's the case, but I think he could really help us unclog the middle against carolina, by forcing whichever of their big men to the perimeter to guard against his outside shot.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-07-2011, 09:15 AM
Hello all, apologies for never having the time to post, but I'll try to make some this week........

Where to start since my last visit....Drew...I think the fan base was way too hard on him. It was embarrassing at times. That said, there were obviously chemistry problems last year and early this year and I have to believe Drew was in the middle of it.

That's no good.

I think Roy did all he could to support the kid, but finally had to move on since he has a responsibility to the team first....when the parents stuck their nose in once too often...don't let the door hit you in the behind on the way out was probably the gist of the conversation would be my guess.

The upcoming game... Better watch out for Henson. He's been the toughest player on the floor for the Heels lately. The kid is a year away from beast description. His confidence is growing, he's tougher, he's stronger, and he seems to be getting over that mental shooting block...I know you guys cringed when he stroked that little kick out mid-range jumper against F$U.... I see a future "Dennis Rodman" type player in him with better offense. If he continues to gain strength, as he should, and realizes mentally his potential...as he should, the world is his oyster.

Barnes....Has all the skills, but has been lacking the toughness and confidence to demand the ball. He's been much better the last few games, but he needs to play with more urgency and make teams react to him. It will be fun to watch him and Singler go at it, Singler's tough, physically and mentally, Barnes better step it up.

Zeller...He's tougher than most give him credit for, but what drives me crazy about him is he has weak court awareness. He just plays robotic. His skills are good, and I can live without bounce in his game, but I saw him in, I think, the BC game, where Strickland beat his man and headed to the rack.... Zeller had his man on his hip and just needed to move a little to clear space for a Strickland dunk...instead he didn't realize the situation and let his man came around him to block Strickland's shot. That sort of play seems to happen all the time and they add up in a game. Drives me nuts.

Marshall.....Has that natural court awareness, situational awareness, that Zeller often lacks. His biggest benefit is leadership and it's rubbing off on the team. They are paying better attention out there. He's crafty and has some size for the PG spot that impacts other PG's. His lack of quickness is balanced by court sense. Having Henson inside to erase a dribble drive helps him too.

Enough for now.....I'll try to respond to comments and questions this week.

The game could unfold many ways...and be extremely entertaining, so glad football season is finally over :)

Wheat/"/"/"

cameroncrazy3104
02-07-2011, 09:24 AM
I think it's interesting that Tyler Thorton and Kendall Marshall have a history going back to high school. The consensus was that Tyler got the better of those match ups. Will that experience help Duke, especially on the defensive end? Marshall has surely become the key player for the heels. If Tyler can disrupt him, it would go along way to breaking their current offensive momentum.

I like this too, I think this is one of the more important matchups of the game. If Tyler can harass Marshall and Marshall starts making mistakes there is not much behind him anymore to help out. I think the next matchup that is key is Barns v Singler, whoever wins this one has a good chance at winning the game. If I had to pick a 3rd it would have to be Mason v Zeller on the boards.

KyDevilinIL
02-07-2011, 09:41 AM
Taking the fact that it's UNC out of the equation, I'm glad we'll play a ranked opponent for the first time in what seems like forever.

ChicagoHeel
02-07-2011, 09:46 AM
Here's what I am interested in:

1. Will Kendall Marshall play at the same high level he did today against the Seminoles: 16 assists, 3 TOs, 3 steals? Or will there be some normal regression to his season averages?

2. Can Duke stop Dexter Strickland, who appears to be the only Tar Heel slasher?

3. Kyle vs. Barnes will be worth the price of admission alone. Barnes against FSU continued his run of good games (17 and 10). Will it continue with the pressure of Cameron and Kyle's defense?

4. Will Duke's sharpshooters be on target? Andre, Seth, Nolan and Kyle can all hit the three -- will they?

5. The Duke front court against the vaunted Heels will be a tough test for Duke. Can the Plumlees and Ryan control Zeller, Henson, and Knox?

sagegrouse

I think these are all important questions and really the keys to the game. I am especially curious about the Singler/ Barnes match-up. Barnes just put up a double-double against FSU, and I believe Singleton was guarding him, so I feel more encouraged than I did a week ago. I'm also hoping that playing D on Barnes will knock SIngler off his offensive game.

One question, I would add that mirrors your question number 4. Will Bullock and McDonald knock down long-range shots? Those two can both really get hot- or disappear. If we get into where we put 4-5 guys in double figures, we will be tough to beat.

It's all so hard to predict because you just don't know how a young UNC team will handle a crowd like they have never experienced. Someone above remarked on the fact that we haven't faced a really hostile crowd- that's true and a good point. We have, however, been down big on the road- albeit to Virginia- and had the poise to grind our way back into it. I'm most concerned with the first 5-10 minutes. Survive that and we have a chance.

1 24 90
02-07-2011, 09:49 AM
Taking the fact that it's UNC out of the equation, I'm glad we'll play a ranked opponent for the first time in what seems like forever.

By my calculation, it will be the first game against a ranked opponent since December 1 against Michigan State. (Butler was unranked on December 4th)

dukeballboy88
02-07-2011, 10:18 AM
If both teams play their best, Duke wins by 20. If UNC plays their best and Duke struggles, Duke will win by 10.

I am tired of hearing about how Zeller and Henson are better than all of our bigs so I hope we play big down low.

sdotbarbee
02-07-2011, 10:24 AM
I think these are all important questions and really the keys to the game. I am especially curious about the Singler/ Barnes match-up. Barnes just put up a double-double against FSU, and I believe Singleton was guarding him, so I feel more encouraged than I did a week ago. I'm also hoping that playing D on Barnes will knock SIngler off his offensive game.

One question, I would add that mirrors your question number 4. Will Bullock and McDonald knock down long-range shots? Those two can both really get hot- or disappear. If we get into where we put 4-5 guys in double figures, we will be tough to beat.

It's all so hard to predict because you just don't know how a young UNC team will handle a crowd like they have never experienced. Someone above remarked on the fact that we haven't faced a really hostile crowd- that's true and a good point. We have, however, been down big on the road- albeit to Virginia- and had the poise to grind our way back into it. I'm most concerned with the first 5-10 minutes. Survive that and we have a chance.

Well in all fairness Singleton was in foul trouble pretty much the whole game and he sat out the final 10 minutes of the first half due to fouls. I don't think he could be as aggressive as he normally is so that could be part of it.

DevilWearsPrada
02-07-2011, 10:29 AM
I love this idea.

I LOVE this!!!!! Everyone needs to tell the Cameron Crusties, in the upper arena!!!!!

HB runs on Coach K Court........... and SILENCE!!! LOVE IT!!!!!

DevilWearsPrada
02-07-2011, 11:05 AM
Carolina does not scare me. Carolina never scares me. I agree with the majority of your post but neither the fan base nor the players should ever be scared of Carolina. As long as we are focused and execute we will be fine. Our talent level is superior to their talent level.


LETS suit you up, and put you on the bench, and in a screaming crowd over 9300, and on national television with the biggest rivilary, and the media crammed into the stadium, and lets see if you have any pregame jitters or hiccups.

Even seasoned athletes get ansy before the big big games. I am ansy for the Girls game tonight, and the boys on Wednesday night. The Tarholes looked very very impressive vs the NOLES yesterday. I watched the entire game.

OUR BIGS need to take authority over the paint and post up. And do a Gminski hook shot! Worked in the late 70s.... it will work now!!!

DUKE needs to take ownership of this game and every game, from the tip off!!! Our identity has been since Dec 4, without Kyrie. Thats Duke's identity. No Kyrie. It is what it is. A gift for every team, that Duke Mens Basketball team, has played since Butler.

Coach K is the best coach in the nation. He is the leader of the Duke Team. Our boys should be very rested, with no travel, and having 4 days between games.

I am looking forward to seeing the Cameron Crazies and all their attire and posters and signs, and hearing chants and cheers!!!!

and as always,
GO DUKE!!!!!!!

Stray Gator
02-07-2011, 11:15 AM
I LOVE this!!!!! Everyone needs to tell the Cameron Crusties, in the upper arena!!!!!

HB runs on Coach K Court........... and SILENCE!!! LOVE IT!!!!!

I mean no offense by disagreeing, but I'll be disappointed if Barnes isn't welcomed in exactly the same fashion as any other ordinary player for UNC. Greeting him with silence or a derisive cheer would just fulfill his expectations and bolster his belief that he's "that guy," who deserves "special" treatment. Why give him the satisfaction of reinforcing his self-image?

It's just my opinion here, but I think Duke fans should shrug off Harrison Barnes' decision and the (from the Duke perspective) unseemly manner in which he made it public. Things have worked out alright for the Duke program so far, despite the absence of Barnes. I really like the young men who have chosen to be a part of this Duke team, and I don't waste time concerning myself about other recruits who elected to go elsewhere. Whether Barnes would have been a good fit with this group of players is pointless speculation. He is on a rival team, and I believe he should be treated like any other player on a rival team.

Kedsy
02-07-2011, 11:25 AM
I'd also bet our three's bpg per minute is higher than their three's bpg per minute, judging by how sneaky Kelly gets his hands on the ball.

Well, almost but not quite. Henson/Zeller/Knox are averaging 2.71 blocks per 40 minutes, while Mason/Ryan/Miles are averaging 2.41 blocks per 40 minutes.

Kedsy
02-07-2011, 11:28 AM
DBR stated in ACC Roundup that the Heels were done to a 7 man rotation. Unless one of them is hurt, I count three reserves that Williams uses off the bench - Knox, Bullock and McDonald. Knox is an excellent frontcourt reserve and the other two provide some scoring and rebounding on the perimeter.

gw67

According to ESPN's box score, McDonald only played 7 minutes against Florida State. So the DBR front page story probably didn't count him.

Kedsy
02-07-2011, 11:36 AM
For everyone who is trying to apply logic and statistics in order to determine the outcome of this game, I ask have those things ever applied to Duke/UNC? Whoever plays harder will probably win. I'm hoping and guessing it'll be Duke, but I'm not taking anything for granted.

gumbomoop
02-07-2011, 11:42 AM
As we look forward to the greatest rivalry game in college bball, I'm looking at some obvious things:

1. Frontline battles - I'd like to see Henson forced to his right. He's getting too confident sweeping through the lane with his left.
2. Singler-Barnes - Will HB settle for the jumper? I doubt his handle is yet good enough to drive on Kyle.
3. Crazy cheers - I'd like to hear some props to Bullock for great barbecue. And to Cody Zeller.
4. Containing Marshall - Several posters, me included, have praised KM esp for how his head's always up, sees the floor, etc. Leonard Hamilton's postgame comment verifies this appraisal: “He seemed to be extremely clever with the ball. He has his head up, which is almost a throwback to those guys who seem to always know where teammates are."
5. Nolan - POY kind of game?
6. Foul trouble for either team - Early, esp silly, fouls will irritate coaches, and cause naughty words from fans. Very naughty words. Unkind thoughts.
7. FT opportunities and shooting - On the season, the Devils are solid here, the Heels less so. Presumably our fellows will be more focused at the line than they were Sat.
8. TT-KM matchup during parts of the game.

But I'm also looking at some less obvious stuff:
9. When either Knox or Watts is UNC's PF, will K go small, with Kyle guarding these guys? Certainly one would think K would want Kyle at the 4 whenever Watts is on the court, to post up. As for Knox, who has been a godsend for the Heels, he's a bit, but not a lot, bigger than Kyle, who's superior all over the court.
10. Which team's 3-bombers will be on? Duke does in fact love the 3. CIS seems a shooter's court. Will our many bombers be on? Will Kelly hit any? Will either Seth or Andre go off? Will Kyle be able to fight through screens to stop HB from getting his feet set? Will any of UNC's guys - Strickland, Bullock, McDonald [whom I continue to believe will transfer, as he's either too good, or thinks he is, to be near the bottom of next year's rotation] get hot? Will we remember that KM, for all his pass-first, can hit the 3, as v. FSU.
11. Will either coach pull a surprise or 2? Will there be any surprise matchups, as I'm looking for in 9 above?
12. What will be Kyrie's impact on the game? Will the guys get extra energy from him, as usual? Will we be able to see this, with Kyrie-camera-shots? And how will HB play in front of his little brother?

Indoor66
02-07-2011, 11:43 AM
For everyone who is trying to apply logic and statistics in order to determine the outcome of this game, I ask have those things ever applied to Duke/UNC? Whoever plays harder will probably win. I'm hoping and guessing it'll be Duke, but I'm not taking anything for granted.

I agree with you, Kedsy. Dork stats are fine for season trends but are, IMO, somewhat meaningless in a game between two reasonably closely matched teams. As they say, that is why we play the game.

Stats as predictors are not very precise when being applied to human performance.

HCheek37
02-07-2011, 11:45 AM
I really think a "skype this" sign is in order for HB at Cameron.

Should be a good battle and hopefully Duke comes out with the same fire they had for 82-50 and the will to defend their homecourt.

nocilla
02-07-2011, 11:47 AM
On that note, some random statistics;

Team ACC stats

Scoring Off (1) Duke 77.4, (2) North Carolina 76.5
Scoring Def (3) Duke 63.6, (7) North Carolina 67.2
Rebs (1) North Carolina 41.5, (2) Duke 39.9
ORebs (1) Duke 13.6, (2) North Carolina 13.4
TO Marg (3) Duke +2.00 (4) North Carolina +1.50
Indv ACC leaders

Scoring (1) N Smith 22.7, (2) K Singler 18.2, (7) H Barnes 15.8, (17) T Zeller 13.1, (19) J Henson 12.9
Reb (2) Mas Plumlee 11.2, (6) J Henson 8.3, (8) K Singler 7.4, (20) T Zeller 5.4
OReb (3) Mas Plumlee 3.3, (10) T Zeller 2.8
Assist (1) K Marshall 6.3, (2) N Smith 5.7, (8) L Drew II 3.7
Ast/TO (1) L Drew II 2.9, (2) K Marshall 2.8, (10) N Smith 2.1
Surprising to me that LDII was leading ACC in Ast/TO...

Billy Dat
02-07-2011, 11:49 AM
Can anyone summarize how well FSU played against UNC vs the effort they have agains Duke some weeks ago? I saw several comments about FSU being a poor road team, and Singleton being in foul trouble, but is the overall consensus about FSU' performance that they just got their butts kicked by UNC or because they were flat/didn't-play-hard, etc.

moonpie23
02-07-2011, 11:54 AM
folks over on IC already got the holes suited up for the natty...


http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=78&f=1410&t=7166680

fisheyes
02-07-2011, 12:06 PM
I mean no offense by disagreeing, but I'll be disappointed if Barnes isn't welcomed in exactly the same fashion as any other ordinary player for UNC. Greeting him with silence or a derisive cheer would just fulfill his expectations and bolster his belief that he's "that guy," who deserves "special" treatment. Why give him the satisfaction of reinforcing his self-image?

It's just my opinion here, but I think Duke fans should shrug off Harrison Barnes' decision and the (from the Duke perspective) unseemly manner in which he made it public. Things have worked out alright for the Duke program so far, despite the absence of Barnes. I really like the young men who have chosen to be a part of this Duke team, and I don't waste time concerning myself about other recruits who elected to go elsewhere. Whether Barnes would have been a good fit with this group of players is pointless speculation. He is on a rival team, and I believe he should be treated like any other player on a rival team.

I couldn't agree more. Make him like everyone else. That's what he deserves.

BD80
02-07-2011, 12:13 PM
Taking the fact that it's UNC out of the equation, I'm glad we'll play a ranked opponent for the first time in what seems like forever.

State was rather rank ...

The one key is to apply ball pressure WITHOUT allowing dribble penetration! If Marshall gets by his man, he is great at dishing off when a big man rotates to cut him off. If we sag off of him, he can deliver a good pass to his frontcourt in good low-post scoring position. Fortunately, we have 2 guys that can defend him. I am comfortable with the ball in anyone else's hands (except for Zeller if he has good post position).

Marshall will kill us with pick and rolls if we hedge too far on high screens (we don't have to worry about him blowing down the lane or pulling up from 20), this will be a good test for our bigs, and hopefully another step in their development into a team that can play championship level defense.

gumbomoop
02-07-2011, 12:18 PM
Can anyone summarize how well FSU played against UNC vs the effort they have agains Duke some weeks ago? I saw several comments about FSU being a poor road team, and Singleton being in foul trouble, but is the overall consensus about FSU' performance that they just got their butts kicked by UNC or because they were flat/didn't-play-hard, etc.

The Drew soap opera, which had been "renewed" for a 2d disastrous season, has now been canceled, to the temporary sadness of Roy, who will be bothered by it, but who now has a very smart PG, whose emergence has buoyed Barnes and Henson.

Marshall had a superb game; the Heels have turned a corner, including, maybe, on D. So the Heels have reason to think they can win Wed.

Longer range, Duke has a maybe slightly more difficult schedule [@Miami, @VT, @UNC as tough], so the Devils must win Wed.

UNC still has some tough games after Wed [@Clemson, @FSU, maybe even @NSCSt, and just possibly Md in CH]. FSU hasn't been a good road team, but even though 3 of their next 4 are on the road, some are winnable [@GaT, @Wake, @MD, plus home v. UVa & Miami]. I'd bet FSU will be 9-5 when UNC visits Tallahassee late-season, for a fired-up, NCAAT-hopeful FSU.

NSDukeFan
02-07-2011, 12:42 PM
I agree this is going to be a tough match-up. Two months ago it appeared we would easily topple the Heels this year but now victory is not a foregone conclusion. The players are going to have to play 40 minutes of focused hard nosed basketball.
It is funny how quickly things change in college basketball. This game has become a bit more intriguing (top two teams in the ACC, both ranked, looking like a more even match-up) in the past two weeks.



Carolina is long and lean inside and will be prepared for Nolan Smith driving the lane. I expect the Heels will collapse on Smith to try to force him into bad shots. Smith needs to kick the ball to Singler, Dawkins and Curry who will have open looks with the defense collapsing on Smith. Dawkins is the ACC's leading 3-PT shooter so we need him taking more shots. Hey Nolan, when we get out in transition, look for Andre on the wing. He is there and he is wide open so pass the ball to him for an easy three points.

Carolina did a great job defending the interior at the Dean Dome last year and I expect Zeller and Henson to continue that this week. This could make life more difficult for Nolan, though hopefully we will see some soft touch with the tear drop. I also hope to see Nolan seeing his teammates on the perimeter (and inside) for a few more passes, especially if the middle is congested.


Singler should smoother Barnes and take him out of the game the same way he made Scott Wood a non-factor yesterday. Singler is tough as nails, he is an Ironman, and I really want to see the Senior dominate the Freshman and demonstrate to the basketball world who is the real All-American!

I have been looking forward to this match-up ever since...well, you know.


The top priority has to be applying relentless pressure on Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland. The best way to stop Zeller from scoring inside is to deny him the ball by turning over the point guard. Point guard is Carolina's weakness so we must exploit this weakness early and often. With Larry Drew II quitting on his team Carolina's weakness at point guard is increased.


It would be really nice to generate some turnovers and easy highlight reel hoops to turn the volume up another notch at CIS and of course to hopefully increase the margin in Duke's favour. Hopefully, perimeter pressure will make it more difficult for Carolina to get into its offense and get the ball inside.


We cannot allow Bullock and McDonald to come off the bench with energy and spark a Carolina rally. Dawkins, Curry and Ryan Kelly need to play aggressive defense as both Bullock and McDonald can bury the 3-ball. Preventing open looks by keeping a hand in the shooters face is a must on Wednesday night.

Even with the improvement Carolina has shown recently, I believe Duke is a much more talented team and will win this game, but make no mistake the Heels will be fired up and ready to play as they haven't even begun to forget about the 32 point butt whipping we laid on them last year. We need to jump on these guys early with a demoralizing blitz and stay focused for the whole 40 minutes.

Ken Pomeroy gives us a 82% chance of winning and predicts an 83-73 final score. I like Duke to win by 12 - 15 points, but I hope it is by a lot more. :cool:
I also think Duke is the better team, but the game is played on the court and I will be very excited to see how this latest installment plays out. Great post.
One other point that has made the match-up very interesting is how well Carolina is rated defensively. They have been ranked in the top ten defensively according to KenPom all year, which is very impressive. I would actually have to give some credit to ol'Roy here for how well the team has defended. Hopefully that will change this week.

The way Miles has been playing, with his problem being strong with the ball and his overplay on defense, it is hard to see him as having an important role in this game. He is athletic and has a big body, so it is nice to have him as a backup, with 4 fouls to give, but I don't look for much beyond that. With his experience, it is too bad that he hasn't come around this year. There have been flashes, but nothing consistent.

I disagree strongly. I believe Miles will be very important in this game to help contain Zeller and Henson. Fortunately for Miles, players can and do improve throughout the season so that hopefully by the end of the year everyone is playing at a higher, more consistent level. I don't think that any player on the team not named Kyle or Nolan has been exceptionally consistent, but that is not to say those players haven't made valuable contributions. I expect Miles will be a valuable player on this year's team and will play an important role Wednesday night.

striker219
02-07-2011, 02:46 PM
I mean no offense by disagreeing, but I'll be disappointed if Barnes isn't welcomed in exactly the same fashion as any other ordinary player for UNC. Greeting him with silence or a derisive cheer would just fulfill his expectations and bolster his belief that he's "that guy," who deserves "special" treatment. Why give him the satisfaction of reinforcing his self-image?

It's just my opinion here, but I think Duke fans should shrug off Harrison Barnes' decision and the (from the Duke perspective) unseemly manner in which he made it public. Things have worked out alright for the Duke program so far, despite the absence of Barnes. I really like the young men who have chosen to be a part of this Duke team, and I don't waste time concerning myself about other recruits who elected to go elsewhere. Whether Barnes would have been a good fit with this group of players is pointless speculation. He is on a rival team, and I believe he should be treated like any other player on a rival team.

I totally agree 100%. As much fun as we might have with total silence (if you could ever actually make it work), HB would love it even more. The real reason he chose UNC over Duke is because the dean dome is the only building in the area that can hold his ego. He wants more than anything to be "that guy" and any kind of special treatment makes that a reality. Treat him the same as anyone else and he goes from being "that guy" to "some guy". He doesn't deserve any better.

OldPhiKap
02-07-2011, 07:30 PM
Can anyone summarize how well FSU played against UNC vs the effort they have agains Duke some weeks ago? I saw several comments about FSU being a poor road team, and Singleton being in foul trouble, but is the overall consensus about FSU' performance that they just got their butts kicked by UNC or because they were flat/didn't-play-hard, etc.

FSU didn't have the same intensity, and they threw up a bunch of outside shots that didn't go down. So they couldn't set their defense and instead got caught in transition. Marshall looked good in that type of game, although some of those passes would have been easy picks for our style of overplay defense.

The Carolina crowd was pretty loud (for them, at least).

Bob Green
02-07-2011, 08:27 PM
LETS suit you up, and put you on the bench, and in a screaming crowd over 9300, and on national television with the biggest rivilary, and the media crammed into the stadium, and lets see if you have any pregame jitters or hiccups.

Comparing pregame jitters to being scared is apples to oranges. As far as suiting me up, I am 100 percent certain Coach K will not approve your plan. :)

NashvilleDevil
02-07-2011, 08:38 PM
Eric Murphy.


Doesn't Eric Murphy have bigger worries? Namely getting his boy Vinnie Chase's career back on track and getting him off blow?

cptnflash
02-07-2011, 08:52 PM
Here's what I am interested in:

1. Will Kendall Marshall play at the same high level he did today against the Seminoles: 16 assists, 3 TOs, 3 steals? Or will there be some normal regression to his season averages?

2. Can Duke stop Dexter Strickland, who appears to be the only Tar Heel slasher?

3. Kyle vs. Barnes will be worth the price of admission alone. Barnes against FSU continued his run of good games (17 and 10). Will it continue with the pressure of Cameron and Kyle's defense?

4. Will Duke's sharpshooters be on target? Andre, Seth, Nolan and Kyle can all hit the three -- will they?

5. The Duke front court against the vaunted Heels will be a tough test for Duke. Can the Plumlees and Ryan control Zeller, Henson, and Knox?

sagegrouse

As always, great questions. Here's my take:

1) Normal regression will take place. That said, Kendall Marshall is excellent and I fully expect him to rise to the challenge of his first game in Cameron. Apparently he went straight to the video room Saturday night after crushing the Noles and studied tape of Bobby Frasor's first game in Cameron as a freshman, because Frasor is said to have handled it extremely well. I got flack for saying it before, but I'll say it again: I love that kid.

2) Strickland is unstoppable in transition. If we're off target from 3 and there are long rebounds, he'll have some easy layups. He's not as aggressive in the half court so I like our chances there.

3) Something tells me Kyle takes this matchup personally and imposes his will on the freshman. At least, I hope that's what happens. But I agree, worth the price of admission all by itself.

4) Accuracy from 3 will be CRITICAL in this game. We will struggle to drive and finish with Henson around the rim, and I don't expect to dominate the boards. That leaves two ways to score - turn Carolina over, which is much harder to do now that Drew is gone, or hit threes. As much as I generally prefer to avoid an over-reliance on 3's, I think we have to hit them to win this game.

5) Very nervous about the matchups inside, although Zeller hasn't looked like a world beater lately (but maybe that's just because the rest of the team looks so much better so he doesn't stand out as much). If our bigs can battle them to something resembling a draw on the boards and get outscored by 10 or less, I'll be ecstatic.

Otherwise, a couple comments. First, for those of you who still expect us to win this game automatically or by a wide margin, you might want to take another look at Carolina. They are scary good. Definitely one of the ten best teams in the country, which I believe will be apparent to everyone by the end of the season. Since inserting Kendall Marshall into the starting lineup fives games ago, they are outscoring ACC opponents by 0.235 points per possession. That is a ridiculous scoring margin. They have been elite defensively all year (these are not your father's Tar Heels), and now they have a very good offense too. Plus, they finally have a common purpose, as all the malcontents/screw-ups are gone (Drew, Wears, Davis, Graves). I think LDII did them a huge favor by leaving, and I agree with previous posters that suggested LDII-related chants should be off limits, not because it's not classy, but because all it will do is unify them further.

Second, for the Pomeroy disciples (like yours truly), keep in mind that his system does not adjust for changes in personnel, so our rankings are still inflated by those magical 8 games when Kyrie was with us, and UNC's are deflated by LDII's ineptitude (especially on offense, where his 92.7 individual offensive efficiency rating was easily the worst on their team). As a result, Pomeroy has us as a 9-point favorite, but at this point I truly believe that on a neutral court, these two teams are very close to a toss-up. Fortunately, the court will not be neutral.

All of which is to say that if we win, I will be extra excited because we will have beaten UNC and beaten an excellent team in the same night, something that was impossible last year without a double-header!

luigi90
02-07-2011, 08:56 PM
2012 SG Rasheed Sulaimon will be at Duke Wednesday for Carolina game per Zagoria. Everyone be sure to greet him. Hopefully he will join Alex Murphy.

Bojangles4Eva
02-07-2011, 09:18 PM
All year (with and without Kyrie) this team has shown to be mentally prepared and ready to execute for every "Big Media Expectations" game we've had (KState, MSU, @NCST, @MD and vs. Butler sans part of the first half). By "Big Media Expectations" I just mean a media-perceived big game that is either against a tough team, or in a tough environment (maybe after a loss), and a win was needed.

Basically when some source pumps our team up big before the game we have always delivered a good performance, and I think we'll do that with UNC. Time Out will close early Wednesday boys, the party will be at Cosmic, GO DUKE!

Newton_14
02-07-2011, 09:32 PM
All year (with and without Kyrie) this team has shown to be mentally prepared and ready to execute for every "Big Media Expectations" game we've had (KState, MSU, @NCST, @MD and vs. Butler sans part of the first half). By "Big Media Expectations" I just mean a media-perceived big game that is either against a tough team, or in a tough environment (maybe after a loss), and a win was needed.

Basically when some source pumps our team up big before the game we have always delivered a good performance, and I think we'll do that with UNC. Time Out will close early Wednesday boys, the party will be at Cosmic, GO DUKE!

With the exception of the St Johns game, I agree with you. Though in fairness, the media really did not build up that game and with their record coming into the game, I guess most expected a Duke win. So maybe that was more of a trap game than anything else and our guys were not pumped up like they were in the games you mention.

The thing is, UNC is riding high with confidence right now and that has to be accounted for. They are easily playing their best basketball in the post-hansflop era. Barnes has come alive, Strickland is playing well, Henson is playing well, and Marshall is coming off a career game. Roy has even shortened the rotation. So it will be a formidable test.

On the other side of the coin, we have Nolan and Kyle and they cannot match that. UNC has no one that can guard Nolan, and I expect Barnes finds guarding Kyle to be quite the challenge. UNC will be in an atmosphere unlike anything they have seen all year, and they are heavily dependent on 3 freshman playing in CIS for the first time. Those with experience have 82-50 as that experience. It will take some doing for the freshman and sophomore led Heels to overcome the pressure they will face and play good basketball for 40 minutes.

If we are shooting it well, it will be a long night for the visitors. If we shoot poorly it will be a dogfight.

Devilsfan
02-07-2011, 10:13 PM
Dr. Oz and his entire family sat center court first row for Sat. game. Wonder who gets those seats for Weds. night game?

Mcluhan
02-07-2011, 10:20 PM
I predict Dawkins and Curry combine for at least 20 off the bench and Duke wins by seven.

OldPhiKap
02-07-2011, 10:21 PM
Doesn't Eric Murphy have bigger worries? Namely getting his boy Vinnie Chase's career back on track and getting him off blow?

This is a "no Drama" zone.

Arie?

jipops
02-07-2011, 11:56 PM
Second, for the Pomeroy disciples (like yours truly), keep in mind that his system does not adjust for changes in personnel, so our rankings are still inflated by those magical 8 games when Kyrie was with us, and UNC's are deflated by LDII's ineptitude (especially on offense, where his 92.7 individual offensive efficiency rating was easily the worst on their team). As a result, Pomeroy has us as a 9-point favorite, but at this point I truly believe that on a neutral court, these two teams are very close to a toss-up. Fortunately, the court will not be neutral.



This is a good point. Which is why I have contended that Wednesday night Duke is quite possibly playing against the best team in the ACC. I don't think we have faced a team with this much talent.

shoutingncu
02-08-2011, 01:00 AM
I think we bring unc and all the idiots on IC back down to earth with a 81-68 victory. Kyle and Nolan both go for 20+, and i'm hoping andre drains a handful of 3's over bullock.

I was going to respond to the above with "who's going to score the other forty to beat Carolina's new found offense?" (hat tip to whoever asked a similar question of Blake Griffin and the Oklahoma / UNC tourney match-up of '09)...



I predict Dawkins and Curry combine for at least 20 off the bench and Duke wins by seven.

Ah.

hudlow
02-08-2011, 08:29 AM
This place is beginning to look the way IC would look without the blithering idiots.

"Will Duke be able to stop....?"

"Carolina is riding high...."

"Duke is playing the best team in the conference..."

"(Carolina) is scary good..."

Sounds like a lot of folks are preparing for a loss so they can say "See, I was right" on Thursday morning.

I sure hope the players aren't reading this crap. It will take the heart right out of them.

hud

GO DUKE!!!! 9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f

NashvilleDevil
02-08-2011, 08:53 AM
This is a good point. Which is why I have contended that Wednesday night Duke is quite possibly playing against the best team in the ACC. I don't think we have faced a team with this much talent.

I would agree that UNC has more talent than any team Duke has played but I would not say that they are the best team in the ACC. I still say a team that starts Nolan and Kyle is the best team in the ACC.

NashvilleDevil
02-08-2011, 08:55 AM
This is a good point. Which is why I have contended that Wednesday night Duke is quite possibly playing against the best team in the ACC. I don't think we have faced a team with this much talent.

I would agree that UNC has more talent than any team Duke has played but I would not say that they are the best team in the ACC. I say a team that starts Nolan and Kyle is the best team in the ACC.

DoubleDuke Dad
02-08-2011, 09:11 AM
This place is beginning to look the way IC would look without the blithering idiots.

"Will Duke be able to stop....?"

"Carolina is riding high...."

"Duke is playing the best team in the conference..."

"(Carolina) is scary good..."

Sounds like a lot of folks are preparing for a loss so they can say "See, I was right" on Thursday morning.

I sure hope the players aren't reading this crap. It will take the heart right out of them.

hud

GO DUKE!!!! 9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f9f

I agree with you. It is good to not be overconfident, but this is ridiculous. Suddenly UNC went from a dysfunctional team to the best team in the ACC, if not the nation, because they have been playing well lately. They were not that bad when they were losing in the early part of the season and they are not that good now because they have won a number of games by a large margin. It seems like people have forgotten that Duke has won a few games this year and that this is a home game for us. If we are going to be blow out in this game then I hate to think what the score is going to be when we have to play them on their home court. Of course we can lose as our poor showing in the game against St. Johns more than amply indicates. However, we have the all-American candidates as well as the experienced team. I would be shocked if we did not play well and win by a comfortable margin.

MarkD83
02-08-2011, 12:49 PM
While UNC is playing well and the talent is showing itself, they have very little room for error.

With the departure of Drew and the apparent religation of Watts to the bench, this UNC team is not deep.

Foul trouble to Marshall or Strickland mean that Bullock or McDonald have to step up.
Foul trouble to Henson or Zeller means Knox is the second big on the court.
Foul trouble to Barnes means go small with no one to cover Kyle.

The same could be said of Duke, but Caoch K has had plenty of experience working around in game foul issues. I am very interested to see Coach K force some odd line-ups to see how Coach Williams reacts.

davekay1971
02-08-2011, 12:55 PM
I remember the words of Conan the Barbarian:

"Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lametations of their women."

9F 9F 9F

SharkD
02-08-2011, 01:00 PM
Let loose the dogs of war!!!!!!:mad:

I think what you meant to say was: Cry, "9F!" and let slip the dogs of war!

everlong06
02-08-2011, 02:22 PM
This is a good point. Which is why I have contended that Wednesday night Duke is quite possibly playing against the best team in the ACC. I don't think we have faced a team with this much talent.

Exactly what makes me hesitant to guarantee a win. Mich St, Butler, and Kstate have turned out to be pretenders, and having Kyrie helped a lot. UNC only really has one bad loss (GT) and their best win (Ky currently at #18) is arguably better than ours. They played Tx to within TWO points.

We have an edge b/c it's at Cameron, and b/c our lead talent are Seniors.

I think this is our biggest challenge of the year... until March 5.

BTW I dont expect KM to have a huge game. I like our guards matching up vs anyone in the country. I'm worried about getting boards.

Vincetaylor
02-08-2011, 03:05 PM
Exactly what makes me hesitant to guarantee a win. Mich St, Butler, and Kstate have turned out to be pretenders, and having Kyrie helped a lot. UNC only really has one bad loss (GT) and their best win (Ky currently at #18) is arguably better than ours. They played Tx to within TWO points.

We have an edge b/c it's at Cameron, and b/c our lead talent are Seniors.

I think this is our biggest challenge of the year... until March 5.

BTW I dont expect KM to have a huge game. I like our guards matching up vs anyone in the country. I'm worried about getting boards.

This game will come down to whether or not we are making our 3s. It really is as simple as that. Scoring inside will be just about impossible against them, but UNC isn't good at defending the 3. If we hit them we win, if we don't we lose.

ChicagoHeel
02-08-2011, 03:24 PM
This game will come down to whether or not we are making our 3s. It really is as simple as that. Scoring inside will be just about impossible against them, but UNC isn't good at defending the 3. If we hit them we win, if we don't we lose.

Just to build on this point, we seem to have particular trouble with guards that can drive and dish to someone spotting up for a three. If Nolan can consistently break us down and find the open shooter, we are in for a long night unless we get lucky and the shooters go cold.

Monmouth77
02-08-2011, 03:32 PM
This game will come down to whether or not we are making our 3s. It really is as simple as that. Scoring inside will be just about impossible against them, but UNC isn't good at defending the 3. If we hit them we win, if we don't we lose.

I don't really share this view. In fact, watching the FSU game, I might draw the opposite conclusion.

Between Henson and Zeller it is true that the Heels have some effective height and shot-blocking ability, but it's not like you can't get into the paint against them. I watched the Noles have pretty good success off the dribble with floaters and pull-ups which are the kinds of shots Kyle and Nolan have routinely made this year. And I am interested to see Mason continue his strong play from the wing, pulling Carolina's big men out and then beating them to the rim.

FSU bricked a lot of threes (which hopefully we make) and ill-advised fade-aways (which hopefully we won't take), but they lost getting beaten in transition and giving in to Carolina's pace, which they were never going to keep up with. With Marshall playing, Carolina can run again, and that's a big part of why they are succeeding.

To me, the key is making Carolina execute in half court sets, which is their clear Achilles Heel.

And yes, let's hope we make our threes.

MChambers
02-08-2011, 03:37 PM
Anyone else hoping it doesn't come to down to a free throw contest between MP2 and Henson?

jdj4duke
02-08-2011, 03:51 PM
on Dan Patrick today. Here's the link; the intro starts about the 21 minute mark.

It's actually a pretty good interview, except for the obligatory Ol Roy-isms during the first couple minutes about being naive, thin-skinned, and all that. He says UNC can beat Duke if UNC "makes a BUNCH of shots, and I mean a BUNCH of shots", both 2 and 3 pointers. That is right at the end, about the 30 minute mark.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/danpatrick/listenlive.player.html?file=http://ht.cdn.turner.com/si/danpatrick/audio/2011/02/08/DP-Hr1_02-08-2011_stream.mp3

Devilsfan
02-08-2011, 03:51 PM
To paraphrase "Palin the Barbarian", I think we have them squarely in our cross hairs.

jaygdevil11
02-08-2011, 03:57 PM
I don't really share this view. In fact, watching the FSU game, I might draw the opposite conclusion.

Between Henson and Zeller it is true that the Heels have some effective height and shot-blocking ability, but it's not like you can't get into the paint against them. I watched the Noles have pretty good success off the dribble with floaters and pull-ups which are the kinds of shots Kyle and Nolan have routinely made this year. And I am interested to see Mason continue his strong play from the wing, pulling Carolina's big men out and then beating them to the rim.

FSU bricked a lot of threes (which hopefully we make) and ill-advised fade-aways (which hopefully we won't take), but they lost getting beaten in transition and giving in to Carolina's pace, which they were never going to keep up with. With Marshall playing, Carolina can run again, and that's a big part of why they are succeeding.

To me, the key is making Carolina execute in half court sets, which is their clear Achilles Heel.

And yes, let's hope we make our threes.

Well said, keep them in the half court and dictate the pace and we will be fine.

JayBean
02-08-2011, 04:02 PM
To paraphrase "Palin the Barbarian", I think we have them squarely in our cross hairs.

To paraphrase "Obama the Destroyer", if they bring a knife to the fight, then we bring a gun :p

jv001
02-08-2011, 04:04 PM
Exactly what makes me hesitant to guarantee a win. Mich St, Butler, and Kstate have turned out to be pretenders, and having Kyrie helped a lot. UNC only really has one bad loss (GT) and their best win (Ky currently at #18) is arguably better than ours. They played Tx to within TWO points.

We have an edge b/c it's at Cameron, and b/c our lead talent are Seniors.I think this is our biggest challenge of the year... until March 5.

BTW I dont expect KM to have a huge game. I like our guards matching up vs anyone in the country. I'm worried about getting boards.

We have the best coach. Not only in this game, but the best coach in the game. That's huge. Go Duke!

rhcpflea99
02-08-2011, 04:14 PM
God I'm so nervous, Duke and UNC game just drive me mad. I hate when Duke loses to UNC, but I love the glory when Duke wins!!!! I can feel it now. UNC freshman pg in Cameron.....good luck UNC your going to need it!!

BlueThru&Thru
02-08-2011, 04:24 PM
This game will come down to whether or not we are making our 3s. It really is as simple as that. Scoring inside will be just about impossible against them, but UNC isn't good at defending the 3. If we hit them we win, if we don't we lose.

Exactly. Live by the 3, die by the 3. Heels have had trouble defending the 3 in the past. If they continue that pattern and your 3's are falling, you've got a W. But if your 3's aren't falling, you'll be singing the Blues. Also disagree with those questioning the inside presence of Henson. He's a force to be reckoned with. Nevermind Zeller. He's only a force if he plays like a talented 7 footer whose head is in the game which has not been consistent this year.

DukeWarhead
02-08-2011, 04:42 PM
Sure, I like it when the Duke-UNC games are hard-fought (and won) battles. But I'll be honest, I much prefer the decisive beat downs that let you enjoy the last ten minutes of the game (like last March). I know that won't be the case this go round, but there's always hope that we bring our A game and that it's just too much for them and the outcome is decided before the final minute - and I think it will be.

Just bring the A game guys, please. Intensity and focus from beginning to end.

And may the Basketball Gods take the lid off the rim when we heave it up...

devildeac
02-08-2011, 04:53 PM
While UNC is playing well and the talent is showing itself, they have very little room for error.

With the departure of Drew and the apparent religation of Watts to the bench, this UNC team is not deep.

Foul trouble to Marshall or Strickland mean that Bullock or McDonald have to step up.
Foul trouble to Henson or Zeller means Knox is the second big on the court.
Foul trouble to Barnes means go small with no one to cover Kyle.

The same could be said of Duke, but Caoch K has had plenty of experience working around in game foul issues. I am very interested to see Coach K force some odd line-ups to see how Coach Williams reacts.

Foul trouble? unc players? In the acc? I'm not sure I understand this concept:rolleyes:.

ChicagoHeel
02-08-2011, 05:06 PM
I don't really share this view. In fact, watching the FSU game, I might draw the opposite conclusion.

...

To me, the key is making Carolina execute in half court sets, which is their clear Achilles Heel.

And yes, let's hope we make our threes.

The thing is, the best way to keep us in the half court is to make your shots, especially your threes, since missed threes often turn into a quick score at the other end for a team looking to run. So making threes and keeping us in the half court are not really mutually exclusive.

And I do think that interior defense is our major strength, which makes hitting the long ball important. When we've fallen behind this year, it usually when a player or two hits threes early and that opens up the inside game. Unfortunately, Duke has a player or two who can hit the three. Knock down some big ones early and the game will go your way. Here's hoping that playing in front of the home crowd also induces big time jitters.

Monmouth77
02-08-2011, 05:32 PM
The thing is, the best way to keep us in the half court is to make your shots, especially your threes, since missed threes often turn into a quick score at the other end for a team looking to run. So making threes and keeping us in the half court are not really mutually exclusive.

And I do think that interior defense is our major strength, which makes hitting the long ball important. When we've fallen behind this year, it usually when a player or two hits threes early and that opens up the inside game. Unfortunately, Duke has a player or two who can hit the three. Knock down some big ones early and the game will go your way. Here's hoping that playing in front of the home crowd also induces big time jitters.

Sure-- the ideas are not mutually exclusive. And it would be great for Duke to hit some early threes.

My point was more that if Duke sits back and launches threes, especially early in the shot clock, we risk long rebounds, run-outs, and quick scores for the Heels.

It is in the nature of Duke's offensive approach to screen for-- or drive to create -- open threes. But I expect a point of emphasis for the Heels will be to get out on our shooters. We can't be afraid of driving for pull-ups or floaters, which will keep the Heels' guards honest and open up good looks outside.

Two sides of the same coin, really. But I want to see an approach that leads with aggressive drives. Marshall and Strickland cannot guard Nolan Smith and that needs to be established early -- regardless of the trees that await in the paint.

DukeGirl4ever
02-08-2011, 05:41 PM
Roy on PTI in like 2 seconds...can't wait to see this!

ChicagoCrazy84
02-08-2011, 06:07 PM
Sure-- the ideas are not mutually exclusive. And it would be great for Duke to hit some early threes.

My point was more that if Duke sits back and launches threes, especially early in the shot clock, we risk long rebounds, run-outs, and quick scores for the Heels.

It is in the nature of Duke's offensive approach to screen for-- or drive to create -- open threes. But I expect a point of emphasis for the Heels will be to get out on our shooters. We can't be afraid of driving for pull-ups or floaters, which will keep the Heels' guards honest and open up good looks outside.

Two sides of the same coin, really. But I want to see an approach that leads with aggressive drives. Marshall and Strickland cannot guard Nolan Smith and that needs to be established early -- regardless of the trees that await in the paint.

Agreed. He needs to have his head up and eyes open because he'll get into the paint with ease so that'll put pressure on the likes of Barnes and Henson defensively. I have no problem shooting three pointers, as long as they are in rhythm. We're playing at home in a big game, so I don't see us struggling to hit.
I think this will be one of the bigger games for our frontline. Zeller and Henson are very good, long players and are athletic. Im not so worried about it offensively, it's mainly defensively. I really want Mason to establish his presence early by getting some good, aggressive rebounds and a block or two just to get them thinking a little more than they'd like. We've given up some big games to good post players so this is a good time for our guys to play smart and with a bit more focus.

With all that said, I can't wait! I had to take a bye week from my weekly euchre league because God knows I would not be able to play cards and try to watch this game. Not happening!

DukieInBrasil
02-08-2011, 06:58 PM
I think this will be one of the bigger games for our frontline. Zeller and Henson are very good, long players and are athletic. Im not so worried about it offensively, it's mainly defensively. I really want Mason to establish his presence early by getting some good, aggressive rebounds and a block or two just to get them thinking a little more than they'd like. We've given up some big games to good post players so this is a good time for our guys to play smart and with a bit more focus. !
Several opposing big men have had very big games vs us this year, and historically. That's part of K's defense. If Henson, Zeller and Knox have average or even an above average game collectively, and we shut down the perimeter game, then we'll have a great chance to win.
All we need from Mason is for him to continue what he's been doing all ACC season, to the tune of 11+rpg. His new-found confidence on the offensive side (aside from at the charity stripe) has been great and I hope it continues vs the holes. Both Miles and Ryan have been very quiet the last 2 games and it would be a great boost if Ryan and Miles scored more than 10 pts between them.

ChicagoCrazy84
02-08-2011, 07:12 PM
Several opposing big men have had very big games vs us this year, and historically. That's part of K's defense. If Henson, Zeller and Knox have average or even an above average game collectively, and we shut down the perimeter game, then we'll have a great chance to win.
All we need from Mason is for him to continue what he's been doing all ACC season, to the tune of 11+rpg. His new-found confidence on the offensive side (aside from at the charity stripe) has been great and I hope it continues vs the holes. Both Miles and Ryan have been very quiet the last 2 games and it would be a great boost if Ryan and Miles scored more than 10 pts between them.


Yeah, Im still not sure where this little slip from Ryan has come from. He really found his niche nicely and IMO he doesn't seem like the type of player to have peaks and valleys just because of his maturity and bball IQ. I'd love for him to get his pt back cause he could be a real weapon for us.

cptnflash
02-08-2011, 07:43 PM
Two more things from me before the biggest game of the year. First, a great article on ESPN Insider today by John Gasaway from Basketball Prospectus regarding UNC's resurgence. Much of this has already been covered by posters, but for those that still doubt the quality of our opponent, hopefully this is a sufficiently authoritative source:

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/news/story?id=6101515

Second, I'll be really interested to see who guards who inside. If I'm Roy Williams, I think I put Zeller on Ryan when he's in and let Henson guard Mason, to avoid having Henson dragged out to the perimeter and negate his shot blocking. If Roy has Henson on Ryan instead (which seems more likely based on body type), I think Ryan needs to park himself at the 3-point line and make Henson choose: either defend the 3 and let Nolan drive & dish, or give up the 3 and make Ryan hit shots (and if that option is chosen, Ryan, please hit the shots!).

Let's go Duke!

JStuart
02-08-2011, 08:08 PM
Foul trouble? unc players? In the acc? I'm not sure I understand this concept:rolleyes:.

Indeed, DDeac; has any unc player fouled out in a game yet this year? I've not seen that happen since the league games started, but I'm not charting their games, either.
Jstuart, more nervous about this game than I thought I'd be...

Wheat/"/"/"
02-08-2011, 08:31 PM
For my best guess, and a guess is all it is....I expect Henson to be the game changer if the Heels are able to pull out a win.
His impact on both ends of the court are real.
Long, active, rangy players are a pain to play against...add the toughness he's been showing and some confidence from the tomahawk ally-oop dunk that I would be looking to set him up for early from Marshall in that environment.....and.....those of you who have played a lot know what I mean....he could be a monster this game. I see some real swagger evolving in his game (like Singler and Smith already have), and he seems itching to show it.

Also the previous point about the potential for long rebounds and UNC getting Strickland involved on breaks if Dukes' s shots don't fall is a good one.
Strickland is almost impossible to stop in the open floor if the defense is on it's Heels (I know), and we all still remember Lawson getting to the rack like that against Duke....Strickland is as fast as Lawson was in the open court and can finish at the rim.

I think Duke will go as Smith and the shooters go (Dawson,Curry). If Smith gets the drive and dish thing going and they are stroking it, it could be a long night for UNC. Smith is a player and will bring it, no doubt about that.

I give the intangible's edge to the Devils if it gets close at the end. UNC is still a young team in the ballhandling positions...Duke is not.

I expect the Singler and Barnes matchup to be a wash myself....

Refs.....are always part of the game.

If they call it tight, advantage UNC. Let 'em play, advantage Duke
Although I don't feel it's that big of a disadvantage for UNC this year if they let 'em play as in past years.
This UNC team is a lot tougher than last years team and will fight through screens and battle the boards.

Should be a great game...with many other possibilities for surprising big games from unexpected places...Bullock? MacDonald? Kelly? Mason? A big game from any of them could certainly happen....

One other thing...ticky-tack fouls sometimes accumulated by Zeller will not bode well for UNC. He needs to be on the floor and better play smart for UNC to have a chance.

Good Luck. Let's have some fun watching this one.

Wheat/"/"/"

dbd4ever
02-08-2011, 08:54 PM
I think for the most part, the matchups are pretty even or could swing either way except for Singler/Barnes in which Singler clearly has the edge and Smith/Strickland?!?!?!. I see where we have talked about who Duke's players will cover on defense, but who will check Nolan for the Holes????? I cannot see any of their perimeter players covering Nolan effectively. This is a game where Nolan and Kyle's versatility should come into play and be the deciding factor as long as everyone else shows up. We can't afford a pitiful shooting performance a la St. John's and FSU, but just everyone show up and play their roles. Would love to see continued improvement for Mason and Miles and maybe have another Ryan Kelly sighting. It was nice to see him consistantly hit that jumper on the kick out. Go Duke!!!

Bob Green
02-08-2011, 09:05 PM
I expect the Singler and Barnes matchup to be a wash myself....

Wheat/"/"/"

That seems to be a bold expectation. I have difficulty seeing freshman Barnes having as big of impact in this game as senior Singler. Singler will be pumped up for his last Carolina game in Cameron so I expect he will best Barnes statistically and in X Factor areas (which are hard to define and very subjective). However, the game is Duke vs. Carolina not Singler vs. Barnes so all I really care about is Duke scoring more points than Carolina.

Good luck back at you, and I agree we should all have some fun watching the game!

Ben1029
02-08-2011, 09:19 PM
One of the better Roy quotes in the espn interview, " to beat Duke you gotta outscore them"

Wheat/"/"/"
02-08-2011, 09:34 PM
That seems to be a bold expectation.

Wishful thinking, I know.

But, I just don't see Singler as being dominant in this one, like I could see Nolan being. He needs help to get going, and this is a good defensive UNC team.

I think he and Barnes basically trade punches.

Singler has a clear advantage in ball handling/game toughness.
I like Barnes rebounding and he is an underrated defender.

Offensively, every time Barnes gets a clean look I think its going in, even tho it really hasn't yet. If Singler goes to the boards, which I think he will have to, Barnes should find space for the jumper. Will he make them?
He seems to be able to focus in the big games so he should be the Hubble in this one.

Wheat/"/"/"

stillcrazie
02-08-2011, 09:53 PM
Hello all, apologies for never having the time to post, but I'll try to make some this week........

Where to start since my last visit....Drew...I think the fan base was way too hard on him. It was embarrassing at times. That said, there were obviously chemistry problems last year and early this year and I have to believe Drew was in the middle of it.

That's no good.

I think Roy did all he could to support the kid, but finally had to move on since he has a responsibility to the team first....when the parents stuck their nose in once too often...don't let the door hit you in the behind on the way out was probably the gist of the conversation would be my guess.

The upcoming game... Better watch out for Henson. He's been the toughest player on the floor for the Heels lately. The kid is a year away from beast description. His confidence is growing, he's tougher, he's stronger, and he seems to be getting over that mental shooting block...I know you guys cringed when he stroked that little kick out mid-range jumper against F$U.... I see a future "Dennis Rodman" type player in him with better offense. If he continues to gain strength, as he should, and realizes mentally his potential...as he should, the world is his oyster.

Barnes....Has all the skills, but has been lacking the toughness and confidence to demand the ball. He's been much better the last few games, but he needs to play with more urgency and make teams react to him. It will be fun to watch him and Singler go at it, Singler's tough, physically and mentally, Barnes better step it up.

Zeller...He's tougher than most give him credit for, but what drives me crazy about him is he has weak court awareness. He just plays robotic. His skills are good, and I can live without bounce in his game, but I saw him in, I think, the BC game, where Strickland beat his man and headed to the rack.... Zeller had his man on his hip and just needed to move a little to clear space for a Strickland dunk...instead he didn't realize the situation and let his man came around him to block Strickland's shot. That sort of play seems to happen all the time and they add up in a game. Drives me nuts.

Marshall.....Has that natural court awareness, situational awareness, that Zeller often lacks. His biggest benefit is leadership and it's rubbing off on the team. They are paying better attention out there. He's crafty and has some size for the PG spot that impacts other PG's. His lack of quickness is balanced by court sense. Having Henson inside to erase a dribble drive helps him too.

Enough for now.....I'll try to respond to comments and questions this week.

The game could unfold many ways...and be extremely entertaining, so glad football season is finally over :)

Wheat/"/"/"

Wheat, have you been officially welcomed back to the board? I know you've been "busy" since your last post was dated 4/3/2010. Wait a minute, I think something important was going on around then...I can't seem to remember what it was...oh, well, welcome back anyway!

Duvall
02-08-2011, 09:56 PM
Singler has a clear advantage in ball handling/game toughness.
I like Barnes rebounding and he is an underrated defender.

Why? It's basically a push.


Offensively, every time Barnes gets a clean look I think its going in, even tho it really hasn't yet.

Why?

Wheat/"/"/"
02-08-2011, 10:07 PM
Wheat, have you been officially welcomed back to the board? I know you've been "busy" since your last post was dated 4/3/2010. Wait a minute, I think something important was going on around then...I can't seem to remember what it was...oh, well, welcome back anyway!

The board was getting a little too nasty for me last year about this time...so many injuries and we sucked:) so I spent my spare energies elsewhere....like learning how to build a tee shirt website for my shop..SilverKingTees.com (http://silverkingtees.com/) (shameless plug....)

Trust me I'm no computer geek and it was a challenge.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-08-2011, 10:08 PM
Why?


His shot just looks pure to me....

Lord Ash
02-08-2011, 10:12 PM
There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever to reasonably point to an underperforming freshman matching up well with a stronger, proven-performer-on-the-big-stage, top-three-scorer in the conference senior captain in the seniors gym.

Oh, and Wheat... any "Duke 2010 National Champion" t-shirts on your site? If so, I'd be happy to buy a few.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-08-2011, 10:14 PM
There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever to reasonably point to an underperforming freshman matching up well with a stronger, proven-performer-on-the-big-stage, top-three-scorer in the conference senior captain in the seniors gym.

Just the eye test and a wishful opinion:)

No Duke 2010 title shirts, or UNC '09 for that matter....but I've been thinking of adding some dark blue "Hansbrough Indoor Stadium" sweats in a gothic font...;)

Wheat/"/"/"

ncexnyc
02-08-2011, 10:23 PM
There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever to reasonably point to an underperforming freshman matching up well with a stronger, proven-performer-on-the-big-stage, top-three-scorer in the conference senior captain in the seniors gym.


I hate doing this, but March 4 2006.

dukelifer
02-08-2011, 10:24 PM
This should be a very tough game. With any luck- it will be a classic. Free throw shooting could be key and who forces the most turnovers. UNC D is better than last year and they have better shooters now. Getting Marshall in foul trouble would help a lot- but the kid apparently does not foul. In my mind- his play will have the biggest impact on the game. If anything, Duke needs to make him work on both ends of the floor and wear him down. Henson played okay last year at Duke and he could be a tough matchup. Everyone else has talent but the same can be said for Duke. But handling Marshall and Henson are key.

ChicagoHeel
02-08-2011, 10:42 PM
Thoughts?

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41481630/ns/sports-college_basketball/

Vincetaylor
02-08-2011, 11:11 PM
Thoughts?

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41481630/ns/sports-college_basketball/

He had me until he said our offense is actually better without Kyrie. That's absurd, regardless of what the stats say.

sagegrouse
02-08-2011, 11:41 PM
Thoughts?

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41481630/ns/sports-college_basketball/

David Hess takes a season of just over twenty games and divides it into three segments and makes strong assertions. Well, that doesn't prove anything, especially when he uses suspect markers like "Marshall starting." Actually, several of LD II's best games were when he was coming off the bench. Fact is, UNC is a highly talented team that was limping along, barely winning games against inferior teams and losing to most of the good teams they faced. Now they are playing more like what was expected of them (although I was and still am skeptical of UNC going from something like 5-11 to 12-4 or better in the ACC). Except for Marshall's all-world game against FSU, I would hardly lay the recent success at his feet. Barnes, Henson, Strickland and the other guys began making shots and showing some energy for a change.

As to Duke: is anyone impressed by the differences in combined offensive and defensive efficiency for the three segments? Duke is rated 1, 4, and 5 among 300+ Div I basketball schools. All sound impressive to me.

WRT the assertion that Duke may be playing better on offense "without Irving," this is old news. Irving was brilliant but not that efficient with his game -- after all, he's a freshman. I expected the efficiency to improve over the season and the brilliance to remain. (What does Coach Cut say? "Speed never has an off day." Same with quickness on the basketball court.)

Like a few sportswriters who dabble in numbers, he appears to be making up a theory to fit the results.

sagegrouse

SupaDave
02-08-2011, 11:41 PM
Duke Managers beat the UNC Managers!!! 54-52! Woo hoo! Andre and Ryan were coaches for the Duke Squad. Pretty sweet.

gep
02-09-2011, 12:13 AM
Duke Managers beat the UNC Managers!!! 54-52! Woo hoo! Andre and Ryan were coaches for the Duke Squad. Pretty sweet.

Curious... who were the unc managers coaches? Current players?

shoutingncu
02-09-2011, 12:34 AM
He had me until he said our offense is actually better without Kyrie. That's absurd, regardless of what the stats say.

John Wall is another example. Wasn't Duke's offense more efficient than Kentucky's last year? It's not unreasonable to state that it has improved upon itself this year, too... from an efficiency standpoint.

billyj
02-09-2011, 12:44 AM
Thoughts?

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41481630/ns/sports-college_basketball/

Lets just say, when these two teams meet, any kind of statistical analysis and comparison should be thrown out of window. Anything can happen. One thing for sure: it will be a full out war.

dukeballboy88
02-09-2011, 08:40 AM
I maybe standed on an island here by myself, but I dont think its going to be that close. The spread is 10.5 and that tells me at some point in the game, Duke is going to go up by more than 10. UNC will make a run and cut the lead but I dont see them coming within 10.

Marshall is playing well but he has played 1 game without Drew and it was at home against a team that dont play well on the road. At some point in time, teams are going to have to make him a scorer and I think it maybe tonight. K is going to make him get 20 and I dont think its possible.

Plus, with TT knowing him well, Marshall will not be able to throw any suprises at him. And early in games, UNC dont play intesnse d. FSU missed several good shots and I dont think Duke will miss them.

Duke 84 UNC 71

bluepenguin
02-09-2011, 08:43 AM
i waited until the unc was the NEXT game before starting this...


how will the crazies greet you-know-who?

list your suggestions here..


mine: silence.......DEAD silence ......with backs turned...


enjoy...
We did this in the late 70's at a Clemson game. When they came out of the locker room, everyone stood with backs turned during their entire warm-up. I think it rattled them so much they never regained focus and Duke beat them handily.

GODUKEGO
02-09-2011, 08:46 AM
This appeared in today's Raleigh News & Observer. I tried to read it with unbias eyes and disagree with two points. IMO, the point guard should be a tie. Marshall statistically has the edge over Tyler but Tyler has the defensive edge. The bench should go to us. It is close with Bullock, Knox, and McDonald versus Miles, Seth and Andre. Surprised they did not include Coach since that is slightly important. What does everyone else think?



http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/02/09/976834/who-has-the-edge.html

Lid
02-09-2011, 09:00 AM
Barnes has all the hype; all Singler has ever done is win.

This is possibly my favorite part of DBR's preview. GTHC, GTH! So excited for the game tonight.

BD80
02-09-2011, 09:12 AM
.... I've been thinking of adding some dark blue "Hansbrough Indoor Stadium" sweats in a gothic font...;)

Wheat/"/"/"

I don't care where you're from, that there is funny!

Any baby puke blue shirts with "Carlos Boozer Center" or "The Dunleavy Dome" or "JWill's House?"

It is amazing that in the last 10 seasons Duke has lost only 9 games at home, and 4 of those were to Hanstravel.

wilson
02-09-2011, 09:15 AM
This appeared in today's Raleigh News & Observer. I tried to read it with unbias eyes and disagree with two points. IMO, the point guard should be a tie. Marshall statistically has the edge over Tyler but Tyler has the defensive edge. The bench should go to us. It is close with Bullock, Knox, and McDonald versus Miles, Seth and Andre. Surprised they did not include Coach since that is slightly important. What does everyone else think?



http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/02/09/976834/who-has-the-edge.htmlI don't have a problem with most of this analysis, but I would disagree rather strongly that McDonald + Knox + Bullock > Curry + Dawkins + Plumlee the Brown (I'm talking about the N&O giving the bench edge to carolina). I also think this sort of exercise is pretty silly to begin with, because adding up some formula with fairly arbitrarily defined contours does not give any great insight into what the real keys to the game will be. I would also echo your sentiment that if you are going to do this sort of thing, it's dumb to leave the coaches out.
In the end, I'll mostly dismiss it, along with the rest of the Triangle writers (for hopefully obvious reasons).

Vincetaylor
02-09-2011, 09:20 AM
John Wall is another example. Wasn't Duke's offense more efficient than Kentucky's last year? It's not unreasonable to state that it has improved upon itself this year, too... from an efficiency standpoint.

We were averaging 6 more points per game with Irving. That's a huge difference. You could also argue that our schedule was actually tougher for the stretch of games that we had him, despite the struggles of msu, ksu, and butler. Irving's assist to turnover ratio was also 1.86 which would put him in the top ten in the conference, so our increased efficiency has nothing to do with him turning the ball over. I just think the method the author chose to evaluate our offense is misleading.

Acymetric
02-09-2011, 09:23 AM
This appeared in today's Raleigh News & Observer. I tried to read it with unbias eyes and disagree with two points. IMO, the point guard should be a tie. Marshall statistically has the edge over Tyler but Tyler has the defensive edge. The bench should go to us. It is close with Bullock, Knox, and McDonald versus Miles, Seth and Andre. Surprised they did not include Coach since that is slightly important. What does everyone else think?



http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/02/09/976834/who-has-the-edge.html

With respect to the point guard bit...how does that change when Nolan runs the point? Definitely don't see an edge for unc there.

slower
02-09-2011, 09:29 AM
The spread is 10.5 and that tells me at some point in the game, Duke is going to go up by more than 10. UNC will make a run and cut the lead but I dont see them coming within 10.



Duke 84 UNC 71

So THAT'S what that means. Thanks.

Duke of Nashville
02-09-2011, 09:31 AM
I maybe standed on an island here by myself, but I dont think its going to be that close. The spread is 10.5 and that tells me at some point in the game, Duke is going to go up by more than 10. UNC will make a run and cut the lead but I dont see them coming within 10.

Marshall is playing well but he has played 1 game without Drew and it was at home against a team that dont play well on the road. At some point in time, teams are going to have to make him a scorer and I think it maybe tonight. K is going to make him get 20 and I dont think its possible.

Plus, with TT knowing him well, Marshall will not be able to throw any suprises at him. And early in games, UNC dont play intesnse d. FSU missed several good shots and I dont think Duke will miss them.

Duke 84 UNC 71

From my previous understanding these two played high school ball against each other. I want to say that TT beat Marshall head-to-head twice.

Marshall and TT have both grown since joining their schools and I am sure they have learned a lot since then. I would imagine both have an expanding game and have plenty of surprises they could throw at each other.

It will be a huge assignment thrown at TT if he starts, one I personally believe he can handle.

GODUKEGO
02-09-2011, 09:38 AM
From my previous understanding these two played high school ball against each other. I want to say that TT beat Marshall head-to-head twice.

Marshall and TT have both grown since joining their schools and I am sure they have learned a lot since then. I would imagine both have an expanding game and have plenty of surprises they could throw at each other.

It will be a huge assignment thrown at TT if he starts, one I personally believe he can handle.

Looks like Tyler is 6-4 against Marshall in High School.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/02/09/976845/young-guards-in-spotlight.html

geoff2
02-09-2011, 09:44 AM
Lets just say, when these two teams meet, any kind of statistical analysis and comparison should be thrown out of window. Anything can happen. One thing for sure: it will be a full out war.
"For sure"? It was 82-50 last year. Something short of a full-out war. I doubt it'll be that much of a blowout, but all the talk of "throwing out the records when these two teams meet" or how it's always a tough, tight game: it's not. Sometimes it's a blowout. That's what I'm hoping for.

Duke of Nashville
02-09-2011, 09:46 AM
Looks like Tyler is 6-4 against Marshall in High School.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/02/09/976845/young-guards-in-spotlight.html

Nice. I am still trying to get through all the links for the game. Tyler is one hell of a competitor. Both players appear to be four year players. By the time they are both seniors we will see one heck of a going out party. : )

Wheat/"/"/"
02-09-2011, 09:49 AM
We all have our hopes as to what will happen tonight on the court, but the truth is no-one has a clue. This game especially could go so many different ways.
That's why this is a great rivalry.

The game comes down to heart, and mental focus. They all have the skills to make an impact...from both benches.

From afar...I get a sense that UNC is confident and focused. I sense a tightness surrounding Duke.

Of course, 3 bombed 3's in a row from one hot kid can change things in a hurry...just which side will it come from?

Wheat/"/"/"

Duvall
02-09-2011, 09:55 AM
From afar...I get a sense that UNC is confident and focused. I sense a tightness surrounding Duke.

Why?

NashvilleDevil
02-09-2011, 10:04 AM
From afar...I get a sense that UNC is confident and focused. I sense a tightness surrounding Duke.



If after the St. John's debacle Duke had lost against Maryland and then barely beat State than I would agree with this. But Duke beat Maryland soundly at Maryland and the State game was over by halftime. I think both teams are confident and focused going into tonight's game and I think Duke with its two senior leaders will come out with the win tonight.

Lid
02-09-2011, 10:07 AM
From afar...I get a sense that UNC is confident and focused. I sense a tightness surrounding Duke.
Again with the wishful thinking?

sandinmyshoes
02-09-2011, 10:08 AM
There are so many subtexts in this game that we could go on and on... and judging by the length of this thread, we have.

The 800 pound gorilla is outside shooting. Either one of these teams gets hot, and the other does not, and it's an easy double digit win.

Outside of that, in our favor is homecourt, depth, experience and coaching (although I have a lot more respect for Williams' coaching than most on the board).

In their favor, underdog intangibles and wounded animal syndrome. I worry about Bullock, McDonald and Barnes getting ridiculously hot from 3 point range, they all have at one time or another. If all three do so in the same game, the gorilla is on their side.

I'd like to see our bigs bang, and bang, and bang some more on their post players. We can afford to lose any one of our bigs to fouls much more than they can afford to lose either Henson or Zeller.

Put pressure on Marshall, but be careful about too much pressure all over the court. This UNC, like all Williams' teams, can run, including their bigs. Overplay and they'll burn us.

I could go on, subtexts again, but the sweetest and most worrisome thing about a Duke/UNC game is you never can be sure which subtext will be the game changer.

PADukeMom
02-09-2011, 10:11 AM
I finally saw the fire & passion in this team against State. I still am concerned that this team is still Nolan watching a bit too much. Still depending on the 3's way too much. GTHCGTH

AZLA
02-09-2011, 10:12 AM
He had me until he said our offense is actually better without Kyrie. That's absurd, regardless of what the stats say.

Yup although he did write "may," not that the Blue Devils "are" better... Even Hess couldn't believe what he was about to write and had to qualify his statement with "may."

What we all know is -- had Kyrie not been injured, based on the trajectory of his performances and his potential, his level of play today would be at such a higher level, it would make stats from a few months back appear meaningless.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-09-2011, 10:26 AM
Why?

Because....it's just a sense I have.

If the Heels lose, I don't think it will really shake them...just one on the road and all that...If Duke loses, all the pre-season back to back talk, the we're gonna crush them, we are a great team, our seniors just can't be challenged by some freshmen sort of stuff adds up to a little extra pressure to prove it....but then again, maybe not :)

ChicagoHeel
02-09-2011, 10:30 AM
I maybe standed on an island here by myself, but I dont think its going to be that close. The spread is 10.5 and that tells me at some point in the game, Duke is going to go up by more than 10. UNC will make a run and cut the lead but I dont see them coming within 10.

Marshall is playing well but he has played 1 game without Drew and it was at home against a team that dont play well on the road. At some point in time, teams are going to have to make him a scorer and I think it maybe tonight. K is going to make him get 20 and I dont think its possible.

Plus, with TT knowing him well, Marshall will not be able to throw any suprises at him. And early in games, UNC dont play intesnse d. FSU missed several good shots and I dont think Duke will miss them.

Duke 84 UNC 71

The bold-faced portion is a good point. FSU looked like it was completely unprepared for Marshall; like all their pre-game prep was on the rest of the team. He was overlooked and the fact that he's left-handed may have added to the confusion. Marshall definitely had the element of surprise. His performance was outstanding, but it is different when the other team recognizes your importance, prepares accordingly, and is familiar with your playing style. I expect him to play much closer to his averages, which is solid but not enough to beat Duke Ty Lawson-style.

I really think it comes down to the bench. We will probably establish an advantage inside, Nolan and Singler will win their match-ups. Your shooters drain threes, we lose badly. Our shooters (Bullock and McDonald) score efficiently and we will be hard to beat. But given our youth and the challenge of playing in H.I.S, the advantage swings to you.

Really, it is as intriguing a game as there has been in a few years. Last year we just prayed the whipping would be merciful and in 2009 I went in thinking I would be disappointed if we won by less than double digits. For this one it is really hard to get a feel.

FerryFor50
02-09-2011, 10:44 AM
Thoughts?

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41481630/ns/sports-college_basketball/

Can't say I agree with any of this.

Sure, UNC is playing better. But "playing like a number 1 team" in the past 5 games is a stretch, considering the competition they've played. And the author seems to forget about those other top teams that have played similarly as well over that time....

Sounded like a UNC fan putting a positive spin on the article and a lot of wishful thinking.

Class of '94
02-09-2011, 11:31 AM
Because....it's just a sense I have.

If the Heels lose, I don't think it will really shake them...just one on the road and all that...If Duke loses, all the pre-season back to back talk, the we're gonna crush them, we are a great team, our seniors just can't be challenged by some freshmen sort of stuff adds up to a little extra pressure to prove it....but then again, maybe not :)

Considering that UNC got spanked by 32 pts the last time they were in Cameron and with a potentially tough road game at Clemson that follows, I think UNC's confidence would be shaken if they lose to Duke in a blowout (by 15 or more) or get dominated by Duke throughout the whole game.

Carolina appears to be very confident right now; but they haven't faced a team on the road in a hostile enviornment like Cameron with the kind of defensive pressure Duke can apply. I find it amusing that the freshmen on UNC say that they are prepared and ready for Cameron. No freshman (outside of maybe Tyler H) is ready for the enviornment of Cameron. I think the achilles heel of the Tar Heels will be their penchant for turnovers. And if Duke focuses on truly putting defense first and not let in lapses in offense affect their defense (a la last year's team), I think Duke will beat Carolina at home (regardless of whether or not Duke is hitting 3's or shooting well).

sdotbarbee
02-09-2011, 11:36 AM
Can't say I agree with any of this.

Sure, UNC is playing better. But "playing like a number 1 team" in the past 5 games is a stretch, considering the competition they've played. And the author seems to forget about those other top teams that have played similarly as well over that time....

Sounded like a UNC fan putting a positive spin on the article and a lot of wishful thinking.

Well there seems to be a ton of people already sold on Marshall but I am not one of them. I got to watch him play a few times in high school and he was nothing special. He was a good player but nowhere close to KI. I too don't think players realize that he is left handed and wants to go left, I have yet to see him go to his right and finish. I think we just need to pressure him and make him go right, plus make him shoot the ball and not pass it. Marshall is a good player but no way should a team ever give up 16 assists to the guy.

wilson
02-09-2011, 11:37 AM
Because....it's just a sense I have.

If the Heels lose, I don't think it will really shake them...just one on the road and all that...If Duke loses, all the pre-season back to back talk, the we're gonna crush them, we are a great team, our seniors just can't be challenged by some freshmen sort of stuff adds up to a little extra pressure to prove it....but then again, maybe not :)Not to belabor this, but I have a semantic quibble to offer.
I think you're right that there's more pressure on Duke than on unc tonight, for precisely the reasons you cite above. However, that's not the same thing as one team being "tighter" than the other. I for one am supremely confident in Duke's ability to face down a pressure situation, in light of our team's veteran leadership and their experience in dealing with pressure last spring. On the other hand, unc is relying on a lot of players who have yet to deal with pressure-packed situations, either because they are very young (Marshall, Barnes), or because the teams they've played on before haven't performed well enough to really experience high-level pressure (Zeller, Henson). I'm not saying this means we'll definitely win, but I do not think that your assessment of "tight" vs. "loose" is quite accurate for tonight's game.

Oriole Way
02-09-2011, 11:39 AM
Well there seems to be a ton of people already sold on Marshall but I am not one of them. I got to watch him play a few times in high school and he was nothing special. He was a good player but nowhere close to KI. I too don't think players realize that he is left handed and wants to go left, I have yet to see him go to his right and finish. I think we just need to pressure him and make him go right, plus make him shoot the ball and not pass it. Marshall is a good player but no way should a team ever give up 16 assists to the guy.

I really think Thornton's familiarity with Marshall, and his ability to contain him, will be a big key in this game and an advantage for Duke.

UrinalCake
02-09-2011, 11:48 AM
I recently rewatched the 80-52 game from last year, and between that and perusing the box score I've noticed a couple things:

- Henson and Zeller actually had pretty decent games. Henson was 5-10 and scored 14 points, while Zeller was 4-8 for 8 points, all of which were pretty easy inside buckets. Their teammates were a combined 7 for 30. Despite being surrounded by a bunch of bumbling turnover machines, Henson and Zeller were able to produce and should carry a good amount of confidence into this year's game knowing that they can score inside.

- The Plumlees played poorly. Mason only got in for 16 minutes in which he scored no points, got no rebounds, and committed 3 fouls. Miles had an awesome alley-oop to close out the game but that was his only bucket to go along with 4 fouls.

This is a new year, but based on what we saw the last time out you'd have to say that UNC has a serious advantage inside.

Huh?
02-09-2011, 11:59 AM
For all of you lucky enough to be at Cameron tonight see you there......
Tune in at halftime for a special announcemet.

slower
02-09-2011, 11:59 AM
One thing you CAN take to the bank:

If the Holes win and Barnes has a big game, the media monkey butt-kiss tidal wave will engulf us all.

Seriously...they are just READY to explode and justify their pre-season lemming-like hype.

Monmouth77
02-09-2011, 12:02 PM
I really think Thornton's familiarity with Marshall, and his ability to contain him, will be a big key in this game and an advantage for Duke.

I agree with this, recalling a similar match-up that was more responsible for our '99 Title game loss then folks usually remember or discuss: Ricky Moore v. Will Avery.

Kedsy
02-09-2011, 12:05 PM
This is a new year, but based on what we saw the last time out you'd have to say that UNC has a serious advantage inside.

The thing is, Henson and Zeller may have an advantage, but neither of them are particularly big scorers. I think Zeller's high in ACC play is 18 points and Henson's 17, and their season averages are 14 and 11, respectively. On defense, they may be able to shut down our bigs, but we don't rely that much on our big men to score. The main place where UNC's big men may have an advantage would be Henson's ability to block shots, assuming he can come out and help against Nolan, et al., without giving up backdoor points to the MPs.

Put another way, the advantage they have with Henson and Zeller isn't nearly as large as the advantage we have with Nolan and Kyle.

So, I could be wrong, but based on the makeup of the two teams, I don't necessarily see UNC's frontcourt being the deciding factor, or that their advantage down there is overly "serious." I think the deciding battle will be on the perimeter, specifically how well will Marshall play and how well will we hit our outside shots.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-09-2011, 12:08 PM
Last year was an anomaly for a Heels team. The injuries were crushing to the team all year and they obviously had terrible team chemistry as well. They got spanked and deserved it.

Both those issues have been solved it seems to this point.

This is a new season and a new team, a tougher team, so I think we can safely throw out last years game as an indicator of how we can expect the Heels to play.

Nolan will be the toughest match up and will likely get his.

My take is that Henson will impact the game the most for the Heels.

Who wins is a toss up to me.

epoulsen
02-09-2011, 12:09 PM
This comment isn't exclusive to this thread but I've seen the issue brought up too many times..... I keep seeing people post things about how we rely too much on our three point game to carry us. Coach K has always had the mentality that if you have an open shot then you take it, its just that simple, this of course means if you have YOUR open shot then you take it, ie the Plumlees do not need to start jacking threes. Is there some rule he should have in place to say "go ahead and take an open shot if it is a)your shot and b)not a three pointer IF we have missed the last three 3 pointers that we have taken AND the game is close"? This philosophy towards shooting has worked very well for us, case and point: last year we went to the Dean Dome and started out shooting pretty poorly. At the half Coach K told the team that they were playing well, the shots were not falling at the moment but they would and he was right, once our shots started falling we pulled away. If we show up tonight and play OUR GAME---- uncompromising and tenacious defense, smart ball handling and KEEP taking open shots (regardless of whether or not we make them) then we will win.

Bluedog
02-09-2011, 12:11 PM
Duke Managers beat the UNC Managers!!! 54-52! Woo hoo! Andre and Ryan were coaches for the Duke Squad. Pretty sweet.

Here's video of the thrilling finish courtesy of Duke Blue Planet. Duke hit a 3 with 8 seconds left. Great reaction from the team afterward.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XukhMc4_cAw

wilson
02-09-2011, 12:12 PM
Put another way, the advantage they have with Henson and Zeller isn't nearly as large as the advantage we have with Nolan and Kyle.Moreover, we've seen bigs have huge games against us already, only to see the rest of their team get bottled up. Jordan Williams, for example, played extremely well against us in both matchups this year, but to no avail with regard to the final score. I suspect that, in something of a tradition for Coach K teams, we'll be content to let unc's frontcourt get theirs, as long as we are able to contain them defensively in other areas.

davekay1971
02-09-2011, 12:27 PM
Moreover, we've seen bigs have huge games against us already, only to see the rest of their team get bottled up. Jordan Williams, for example, played extremely well against us in both matchups this year, but to no avail with regard to the final score. I suspect that, in something of a tradition for Coach K teams, we'll be content to let unc's frontcourt get theirs, as long as we are able to contain them defensively in other areas.

The UNC frontcourt will get theirs, and they are good, but they haven't shown the ability to offensively dominate a game. To have Zeller and Henson combine for more than 30 points would be a really, really good game for them, but that won't be enough unless some of their perimeter guys (including Barnes) can get free. I really believe Singler will handle Barnes, I don't think Carolina's perimeter guys are going to be able to get into the lane the way Lawson used to, and, unless our guys have a bad shooting night, I think Carolina will have a really hard time scoring enough to keep up with us in Cameron.

Now I'll just cross my fingers, knock on wood, and hope I'm right, lol

slower
02-09-2011, 12:29 PM
Here's video of the thrilling finish courtesy of Duke Blue Planet. Duke hit a 3 with 8 seconds left. Great reaction from the team afterward.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XukhMc4_cAw


Thanks SO much for sharing that. What an epically great video. What you see there is the TRUE essence of teamwork and, in a sense, sport itself.

I'm overjoyed to see Dre, Josh, Ryan, Seth and the rest so involved in this game. Fantastic - thanks for making my day.

wilson
02-09-2011, 12:30 PM
...unless our guys have a bad shooting night, I think Carolina will have a really hard time scoring enough to keep up with us in Cameron.This, to me, is the key to tonight's game. If our boys shoot reasonably well, we should be fine. If they don't, we're really gonna be in for a battle.

stillcrazie
02-09-2011, 12:31 PM
Tysiac on ESPN giving the edge to Carolina. I have to stop listening to/reading this stuff. It's making me extremely nervous.

Class of '94
02-09-2011, 12:41 PM
Tysiac on ESPN giving the edge to Carolina. I have to stop listening to/reading this stuff. It's making me extremely nervous.

Correct me if I'm wrong and I mean no disrespect to our Carolina posters, but isn't this the same UNC team that hasn't been ranked for most of the season and is currently only ranked in the 20s. And isn't Duke currently a top 5 team in the country playing Carolina at Cameron? I don't see how anyone can give the edge to UNC.

throatybeard
02-09-2011, 12:46 PM
Can we stop calling Carolina "the holes?" It's really pathetically childish.


This is the part that concerns me for Carolina... before we go ranking a team that's won 9 of 10, let's look at the nine they beat. Hardly resume building. I think tomorrow against FSU will be telling.

I suppose a counterpoint to this is that Duke's been playing the same mediocre conference. What with MSU/KSU/Butler tanking, even after twenty-some games I still feel like I don't know how good we are. The win at Maryland is something to hang our hat on, but I don't think anyone is that impressed by our piledriving State in Durham.

I watched, well watched is overstating it, had UNC-FSU on the other night. I get Fox SS in a packaged I purchased solely to watch NFL RedZone. But the Blues were playing on Fox MW. So no HD. Let me tell ya, you really haven't experienced crappy SD until you've seen it on an HD flat panel with Fox's feed that looks like you're watching through a screen door. And the camera on the floor for some reason. And Tim Brando talking about the iron of one kind or another every three minutes.

-bdbd
02-09-2011, 12:54 PM
I really think Thornton's familiarity with Marshall, and his ability to contain him, will be a big key in this game and an advantage for Duke.

I've been thinking the same thing. This will be a new experience for Marshall, playing PG at the college level, with (1) Extremely tight PG on-ball defense; (2) Strategies to make him work a lot on his D end; and (3) In an extremely hostile environment.

I think Marshall has a very disappointing game and the NC@CH frehmen play, well, like frosh. But Barnes still gets his (there is a reason K and staff went after him). That KS vs. HB matchup is certainly the marquee one of the game (expect much discussion on TV), but the other ones, such as Tyler on Marshall, or Marshall and Strickland trying to guard Dawkins and Curry and Smith outside, will ultimatley decide it. Call me a homer, but I just don't see this one being a nail-biter. Frosh playing a key role in CIS is not a typical combo for huge success.

Though this hasn't received a lot of attention here, losing Drew2 hurts Kerlina especially on the D end. They will have much less pressure on our perimeter guys as a consequence. Expect a big night from the sharp-shooters. (But look for K to work to establish MP2 inside early.)

Can't wait!!

:D

superdave
02-09-2011, 12:55 PM
For everyone who is trying to apply logic and statistics in order to determine the outcome of this game, I ask have those things ever applied to Duke/UNC? Whoever plays harder will probably win. I'm hoping and guessing it'll be Duke, but I'm not taking anything for granted.

Great point here. One team almost always starts out with some fire, then momentum switches back and forth a few times. I also always look at glaring matchup discrepancies and Nolan is the big one tonight. So if we win the emotion and energy battle, we win the game.

Scoring Point
02-09-2011, 01:07 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong and I mean no disrespect to our Carolina posters, but isn't this the same UNC team that hasn't been ranked for most of the season and is currently only ranked in the 20s. And isn't Duke currently a top 5 team in the country playing Carolina at Cameron? I don't see how anyone can give the edge to UNC.

Vegas line is Duke by 10. Whether ultimately right or wrong, is an objective measure

Over/under is 156, so essentially predicting an 83-73 victory for us. Sounds

ChicagoHeel
02-09-2011, 01:13 PM
Great point here. One team almost always starts out with some fire, then momentum switches back and forth a few times. I also always look at glaring matchup discrepancies and Nolan is the big one tonight. So if we win the emotion and energy battle, we win the game.

I don't deny this is true, but my sense is that both teams have pretty much held true to form over the last few years. What I mean is that, the better/ higher ranked team has usually won. I haven't gone back and looked at the results, but I can't remember too many upsets in the last 4-5 years, or even during the Roy era. You beat us at home back in 2008, but we all know that one doesn't count because Lawson was injured during the FSU game just prior to the loss. We spoiled your senior night during Hansbrough's freshman year. I can't think of any others. When was the last time that one team was ranked significantly higher (e.g. 10 or more places) than the other and lost? In that sense, history would suggest both teams will perform about as you would expect given their stats/ rankings and, unfortunately, the good guys will lose.

94duke
02-09-2011, 01:15 PM
Vegas line is Duke by 10. Whether ultimately right or wrong, is an objective measure

Over/under is 156, so essentially predicting an 83-73 victory for us. Sounds

Kenpom predicts we win 83-74 (80%).
http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

huied
02-09-2011, 01:35 PM
Frosh playing a key role in CIS is not a typical combo for huge success.

I think this is going to a huge factor in the game. My freshman year, I was in Cameron to watch Chris Paul's first visit, and it was sure a sobering experience for him. My memory may be a little off, but I saw his body language in the later parts of the game and thought that he looked like a broken man.

Obviously the JJ/Shelden teams and the Nolan/Singler teams are very different, but if Chris Paul couldn't handle Cameron, I'm confident that Marshall won't be able to either.

ChicagoHeel
02-09-2011, 01:49 PM
I don't deny this is true, but my sense is that both teams have pretty much held true to form over the last few years. What I mean is that, the better/ higher ranked team has usually won. I haven't gone back and looked at the results, but I can't remember too many upsets in the last 4-5 years, or even during the Roy era. You beat us at home back in 2008, but we all know that one doesn't count because Lawson was injured during the FSU game just prior to the loss. We spoiled your senior night during Hansbrough's freshman year. I can't think of any others. When was the last time that one team was ranked significantly higher (e.g. 10 or more places) than the other and lost? In that sense, history would suggest both teams will perform about as you would expect given their stats/ rankings and, unfortunately, the good guys will lose.

Just to add a little bit of support for my previous point, I just game across this piece of information:

"Since March of 1992, the lower ranked team in the UNC-Duke rivalry game has an abysmal record of 8-35."

Matches
02-09-2011, 01:55 PM
When was the last time that one team was ranked significantly higher (e.g. 10 or more places) than the other and lost? In that sense, history would suggest both teams will perform about as you would expect given their stats/ rankings and, unfortunately, the good guys will lose.

'03 in Chapel Hill.

In '05 at Duke I don't think there was much difference in the rankings, but the Heels were prohibitive favorites and lost a squeaker.

CharlestonDevil
02-09-2011, 01:56 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong and I mean no disrespect to our Carolina posters, but isn't this the same UNC team that hasn't been ranked for most of the season and is currently only ranked in the 20s. And isn't Duke currently a top 5 team in the country playing Carolina at Cameron? I don't see how anyone can give the edge to UNC.

That is FAR too much logic for tarhole fans/the media. Just makes too much sense, so it can't be true.

UrinalCake
02-09-2011, 01:57 PM
Is it just me or did the end of that manager's game remind anyone of this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR1_uEXHXo0

DukieinSoCal
02-09-2011, 01:59 PM
I agree with everyone that TT on Marshall and Kyle on Barnes will be key factors that could swing the game in our favor, but no one seems to be looking at the Kelly/Henson matchup. I think this is a game where we play Kelly more to spread the court and pull Henson away from the basket, negating his shot-blocking ability. As long as Ryan can hold his own on the boards, this might be another nice matchup for us.

Let's go, Duke!

wilko
02-09-2011, 02:01 PM
Can we stop calling Carolina "the holes?" It's really pathetically childish.

But I like it sooo.. besides it annoys them.
How's this for a compromise? I'll give up "Holes" as soon as they learn to spell Duke w/o the double O's.

NashvilleDevil
02-09-2011, 02:03 PM
I think this is a game where we play Kelly more to spread the court and pull Henson away from the basket, negating his shot-blocking ability. As long as Ryan can hold his own on the boards, this might be another nice matchup for us.

Let's go, Duke!

He also has to hit a couple of shots so Henson has to stay on him. He does that and the middle could be open for Duke drives.

GODUKEGO
02-09-2011, 02:07 PM
Like we need more fuel!!!!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/02/north-carolina-chancellor-takes-shot-at-duke-krzyzewskiville/1

stillcrazie
02-09-2011, 02:08 PM
http://espn.go.com/

I know that these polls have very limited value since densely populated areas like NY and Bos are going to vote more, but this poll has us behind the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry and Michigan/OSU. Not to diminish these other rivalries, because they are great, but none of them (incl. Lakers v. Celtics, Bama v. Auburn) has the proximity factor that Duke v. UNC has. Maybe you just have to live here to appreciate the fact that if you walk into the Chapel Hill Whole Foods on game day wearing a Duke shirt, you'd better be ready to take some abuse or dish it out. Go Devils!!!

superdave
02-09-2011, 02:25 PM
Unc frontcourt vs. Duke frontcourt
Zeller and Henson both run the court well and are pretty good finishers. As we saw last year, Henson can block some shots and both guys score pretty efficiently when they get the ball in close range.

I would argue that Duke's big men have grown into much better players defensively over this season. They are fitting into the team D concept better each week. Offensively they are good in some situations but not others. For Duke to win, Duke's big guys need to rebound and defend, but do not necessarily need to carry much of the load offensively. For Unc to win, Henson and Zeller need to win this matchup by 15 points or more.

Unc backcourt vs. Duke backcourt
This is Duke's biggest advantage and the biggest discrepancy in this game. Nolan is not going to be stopped tonight. I do not see Unc having an answer defensively for him. I also expect either Seth or Andre to have a solid game shooting the ball, and Tyler to be very disuptive defensively.

Duke can and should put a ton of pressure on Marshall by extending the defense and keeping him out of the lane. Marshall will be effective if he can find some lobs, backdoor cuts and dribble drives early to get the Unc offense going and to disallow Duke from dictating the pace and attacking him. I dont think he's up for 35 minutes of holding the Duke D at bay tonight.

Unc offense vs. Duke defense
FSU and StJ attacked Duke and made them back-pedal. Can Marshall do that to get people easy shots? Or does Duke's D force Unc to grind it out? Even Roy said Unc would have to hit a lot of shots to win - basically to outscore Duke and run a few steps ahead of them the whole night. A halfcourt game will be to Unc's detriment. Unc has a lot of games in the 60s and 70s this year so I'm not sure they can muster 80-85 points vs. the Duke D.

Tyler Thornton may set the pace of this game early. If he does and Marshall has trouble adjusting, or recovers slowly, it could be a very frustrating night for them.

The Singler-Barnes matchup should be interesting. I see Kyle playing tight D because Barnes has not been a consistent dribbler or driver. Better to deny him the ball than to bet his jumpers miss.

Unc defense vs. Duke offense
Unc's defensive efficiency is as good as Duke's. But do the #s tell the truth? I think they've gotten better since December but they have not seen Nolan and Kyle yet. And how do they close out on so many shooters? They'd be wise to take away Nolan's dribble penetration and hope Duke has an off night while running the other way for easy scores. I can see Duke hitting the offensive boards with some success tonight because we have more bulk up front.

Back to the Singler-Barnes matchup, Kyle and Nolan will look to bring the intensity early in order to counter any over-emotion or jitters the youngers guys may have at the outset. I look to Kyle to look for his shot early in order to put pressure on Barnes. I assume he'll look at this head to head matchup with a little personal interest.

Whathaveyou - Or as some people like to call it, "intangibles."

Duke is at home. Duke's got a lot more experience and the two best players on the court.

Unc is on a roll (3 straight 20 pt wins) but has had some genuinely ugly games earlier this year and had to grind out more than a few conference games to date.

Duke has more reason to be able to play emotionally stirred tonight - their two best players are defending the homecourt against Unc for the last time.

I predict an evenly played game with lots of fouls and one strong run by Duke that Unc never fully recovers from.

Chitowndevil
02-09-2011, 02:31 PM
Like we need more fuel!!!!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/02/north-carolina-chancellor-takes-shot-at-duke-krzyzewskiville/1

Hmm, and yet Duke manages to rank #9 among undergraduate institutions according to USA Today (UNC is #30).

Also according to a recent data set compiled by Payscale.com, Duke undergraduates enjoy a median starting salary over $55k and a mid-career median salary of $117k, 9th among institutions in the data set. UNC's numbers are $43k and $83k, respectively. Take this with a grain of salt since this isn't a randomized scientific experiment. But I wonder how Mr. Thorpe would react if we told him Duke students are spending all of that time in tents and still out earning UNC grads by 20-40%.

(For the record, and for our UNC posters, I have friends on the faculty and UNC-CH and happen to believe it is an outstanding academic institution. I also think this particular comment by Thorpe is just idiotic.)

Bojangles4Eva
02-09-2011, 02:33 PM
This comment isn't exclusive to this thread but I've seen the issue brought up too many times..... I keep seeing people post things about how we rely too much on our three point game to carry us. Coach K has always had the mentality that if you have an open shot then you take it, its just that simple, this of course means if you have YOUR open shot then you take it, ie the Plumlees do not need to start jacking threes. Is there some rule he should have in place to say "go ahead and take an open shot if it is a) your shot and b) not a three pointer IF we have missed the last three 3 pointers that we have taken AND the game is close"? This philosophy towards shooting has worked very well for us, case and point: last year we went to the Dean Dome and started out shooting pretty poorly. At the half Coach K told the team that they were playing well, the shots were not falling at the moment but they would and he was right, once our shots started falling we pulled away. If we show up tonight and play OUR GAME---- uncompromising and tenacious defense, smart ball handling and KEEP taking open shots (regardless of whether or not we make them) then we will win.

I think K also understands his statistics very well, and this is illustrated in the above example from last years @UNC game. He gives certain players the green light to shoot 3 pointers if their numbers indicate the probability of them hitting the shot is worth letting them jack it up whenever they are comfortable in taking it (i.e. assuming they are getting off good shots, and not shooting off balance, rushed, heavily contested, etc). With so many players in the green this year, if we have an off shooting night, its really easy to say we are too dependant on the three. However, in reality its not that we're too dependant, its that the coaching staff knows that if we hit them at a rate close to our percentages we will be very difficult to contain on the offensive end. Therefore, a bad start from 3 (again, if the shots are in the players comfort zone) should not deter the players from shooting them because probability states that if they keep getting those open looks they should eventually start knocking them down.

To put it in statistics nerd speak: say player X is shooting 40% from 3, with a standard deviation of 10% (meaning 68% of the time he should fall within 30% - 50%), there is a ~95% chance that player X will shoot between 20% - 60% in a game (all this stuff comes from Gaussian probability theory fyi, so I'm not just pulling it out of the air). Even with that bad number, lets say on a typical off night player X shoots 25% and attempts an average amount of threes per game (say 4 attempts). That translates to 3 pts off 4 shots which is the equivalent to shooting 37.5% for 2-pt field goals. That’s not the greatest percentage, but its not a terrible bottom-level offensive performance either, provided your defense is sound. Assume then that all our 3 pt gunners (singler, smith, dawkins, curry, kelly) are shooting poorly for the night, maybe lets call this a combined 20% on 20 shot attempts (this would probably be in the bottom 5% shooting performance-wise), then that’s the same as 30% for 2-pt FG%. Now, sprinkle in the average 2-pt field goals we should get a game from the plumlees, perimeter drives, and some high percentage points off turnovers (I don't know how many of these we average a game) we are then shooting closer to 40% for 2-pt field goals, which unless we are getting burned on defense will keep us in a position to stay in the game even when we are shooting terribly. Throw in our average ~75% FT (not sure the exact number here) and its not hard to see how we could still remain in the game when offensive productivity is next to nothing. This gives us a luxury that not many teams in the country have.

All this being said, as long as we play good defense, letting our green light shooters take their shots when they are comfortable to take them puts us in a position to win the game (if not dominate the game should we shoot at our average or above) 95% of the time (our current win % is 21/23 = 91%). That’s not a bad strategy if looked at strictly from a numbers perspective, and shows me that we're not dependant on the three, we just realize how effective of a weapon it can be in winning games given the current players we have, and it is somewhat justified (although very loosely presented here) by mathematics.

So what happened with FSU and St. Johns? Part of it was that we were not taking shots in our comfort zone (i.e. FSU's great perimeter defense) and another part may be that we just landed in that itty bitty 5% zone in which as a team we were shooting less than our -2x std deviation from our mean 3-pt FG%. Although I personally feel that in the St. Johns game it was the defensive end of the floor where we really lost the game.

Its poker, sometimes people suck out the inside-straight on the river, and it hurts when it happens, but if you play against that draw every time you will end up a rich man.

dukelifer
02-09-2011, 03:02 PM
Like we need more fuel!!!!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/02/north-carolina-chancellor-takes-shot-at-duke-krzyzewskiville/1

We he never actually said that Duke students are wasting time sitting in tents- just that UNC students are not wasting time sitting in tents. They are likely wasting their time elsewhere-like watching the tar heels play in the NIT last year- to each his or her own.

davekay1971
02-09-2011, 03:04 PM
Like we need more fuel!!!!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/02/north-carolina-chancellor-takes-shot-at-duke-krzyzewskiville/1

Perhaps while Mr. Thorp's esteemed students are asking important questions about the future, he should ask some important questions about the future of his University...such as how much of the school's integrity he is willing to sacrifice to the gods of winning football (apparently as much as is needed).

PS: it was awhile ago, but in the mid 90s when I did some post-bac pre-med courses at Chappaheeya (easy As, dirt cheap), the UNC students were very fond of pondering important questions about the future while watching Jerry Springer and Ricky Lake. So, relax, world, the graduates of UNC-CH have our future secured!

MChambers
02-09-2011, 03:08 PM
I recently rewatched the 80-52 game from last year, and between that and perusing the box score I've noticed a couple things:

- Henson and Zeller actually had pretty decent games. Henson was 5-10 and scored 14 points, while Zeller was 4-8 for 8 points, all of which were pretty easy inside buckets. Their teammates were a combined 7 for 30. Despite being surrounded by a bunch of bumbling turnover machines, Henson and Zeller were able to produce and should carry a good amount of confidence into this year's game knowing that they can score inside.
Two quibbles: the score was 82-50, not 80-52, and Henson tried to dunk in the last minutes and was stripped cleanly by Jordan Davidson.

bluepenguin
02-09-2011, 03:12 PM
Like we need more fuel!!!!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/02/north-carolina-chancellor-takes-shot-at-duke-krzyzewskiville/1
with a name like Holden Thorp, what do you expect!

Kedsy
02-09-2011, 03:27 PM
For Unc to win, Henson and Zeller need to win this matchup by 15 points or more.

Henson and Zeller combine for 25.2 ppg. Mason and Ryan combine for 13.5 ppg. That's almost a 12 point difference, on average. According to Pomeroy, Duke and UNC have equivalent defenses and Duke's offense is much better, so coming close to their average probably isn't going to cut it. Therefore I think UNC needs to win the front court battle by a lot more than 15 if they're going to win the game.

94duke
02-09-2011, 03:33 PM
I don't remember seeing this one posted.
Here is a breakdown by Seth Davis (Duke 82 - UNC 79):
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/seth_davis/02/08/unc.duke.advance/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin

Chitowndevil
02-09-2011, 03:41 PM
To put it in statistics nerd speak: say player X is shooting 40% from 3, with a standard deviation of 10% (meaning 68% of the time he should fall within 30% - 50%), there is a ~95% chance that player X will shoot between 20% - 60% in a game (all this stuff comes from Gaussian probability theory fyi, so I'm not just pulling it out of the air). Even with that bad number, lets say on a typical off night player X shoots 25% and attempts an average amount of threes per game (say 4 attempts). That translates to 3 pts off 4 shots which is the equivalent to shooting 37.5% for 2-pt field goals. That’s not the greatest percentage, but its not a terrible bottom-level offensive performance either, provided your defense is sound. Assume then that all our 3 pt gunners (singler, smith, dawkins, curry, kelly) are shooting poorly for the night, maybe lets call this a combined 20% on 20 shot attempts (this would probably be in the bottom 5% shooting performance-wise), then that’s the same as 30% for 2-pt FG%. Now, sprinkle in the average 2-pt field goals we should get a game from the plumlees, perimeter drives, and some high percentage points off turnovers (I don't know how many of these we average a game) we are then shooting closer to 40% for 2-pt field goals, which unless we are getting burned on defense will keep us in a position to stay in the game even when we are shooting terribly. Throw in our average ~75% FT (not sure the exact number here) and its not hard to see how we could still remain in the game when offensive productivity is next to nothing. This gives us a luxury that not many teams in the country have.



I really do apologize, but I teach stats for a living so I can't let this one go.

Consider a shooter who has a 40% chance of making each shot. Assume shots are independent and that he takes 10 attempts per game. Then the number of shots he makes in a game is a binomial(10,.4) random variable. This means there is about a 90% chance he will make between 2 and 6 shots per game.

This sounds pretty similar to the post above. In fact it really isn't. The most important source of variation here is not the probability each shot is made, it is *whether the shot actually goes in*. For comparison, over a large number of games, our 40% shooter makes an average of 4 shots per game with a standard deviation of about 1.55. The shooter described in the original post also makes 4 shots per game on average, but with a standard deviation of 1.8. So while the variation in shooting percentages does make a difference, it is a smaller part of the variance compared to the randomness in the shots themselves. Admittedly, assuming shooting percentages vary is probably more realistic because in actual play shots are contested to varying degrees. But you have to take a LOT of shots per game before that becomes the more important source of variation in determining how many shots are actually made.

gcashwell
02-09-2011, 03:56 PM
I don't remember seeing this one posted.
Here is a breakdown by Seth Davis (Duke 82 - UNC 79):
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/seth_davis/02/08/unc.duke.advance/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin

As soon as he said Kyle Singler wasn't living up to expectations, I quit reading.

NashvilleDevil
02-09-2011, 03:59 PM
I don't remember seeing this one posted.
Here is a breakdown by Seth Davis (Duke 82 - UNC 79):
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/seth_davis/02/08/unc.duke.advance/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin

Has Seth watched Mason in the last two games? Seems like a horribly researched and thought out article.

If Kyle has not lived up to his pre-season billing then what is the description for Harrison Barnes's season?

94duke
02-09-2011, 04:09 PM
As soon as he said Kyle Singler wasn't living up to expectations, I quit reading.

What he said was:

Singler was the consensus preseason player of the year, but he hasn't quite played like it.

I don't think anyone has Kyle on their NPOY ballot.
He's really not in contention for ACC-POY. That would be Nolan.

94duke
02-09-2011, 04:12 PM
Has Seth watched Mason in the last two games? Seems like a horribly researched and thought out article.

If Kyle has not lived up to his pre-season billing then what is the description for Harrison Barnes's season?

Actually, he talks specifically about those two games:

The good news, however, is that two [of his three double-figure scoring games] came in his last two games, so maybe that's the start of something good.

dahntaysdawg
02-09-2011, 04:19 PM
Actually, he talks specifically about those two games:

Seth???

NashvilleDevil
02-09-2011, 04:20 PM
Actually, he talks specifically about those two games:

Then what a horrible reading comprehension job by me.

94duke
02-09-2011, 04:25 PM
Seth???

Seth Davis was a '92 grad. I am not. ;)

superdave
02-09-2011, 04:29 PM
What he said was:


I don't think anyone has Kyle on their NPOY ballot.
He's really not in contention for ACC-POY. That would be Nolan.

Agreed but Kyle has been an exceptional defender this year. Like top 5 nationally good.

Also, Seth Davis seems to assume Marshall will have 16 assists in Cameron and Barnes will shoot 45% from 3 not 27% like the first 15 games this year. That's a bigger assumption than how well the reigning final Four MOP will perform.

toooskies
02-09-2011, 04:31 PM
On Seth's article:

1) Does every player on the team need to be a dynamic scorer for Duke to be successful? Is having the #1 and #3 scoring players in the ACC, along with above-average 3-point shooters at three other positions, not enough to offset only occasional scoring output from two players?
2) How do you write an entire note about the fact that Kyle is playing slightly below Player of the Year expectations, without noting that Nolan is playing slightly above expectations and is in the POY conversation?
3) How can you not notice that Kyle Singler's best games are against the best competition, especially when he's lined up against a marquee player on the other team (Barnes)?
4) Can you really believe that one team has every expectation to win when you're predicting the game to be decided by 3 points? (Hint: if you predict a 3-point game, you're not really expecting either team to win.) If anything, this game will be the most challenging on its face since MSU or Butler, even if you throw out the "Duke-UNC is always closer than numbers predict" theories.

94duke
02-09-2011, 04:32 PM
Agreed but Kyle has been an exceptional defender this year. Like top 5 nationally good.

Also, Seth Davis seems to assume Marshall will have 16 assists in Cameron and Barnes will shoot 45% from 3 not 27% like the first 15 games this year. That's a bigger assumption than how well the reigning final Four MOP will perform.

I agree. His offense has been pretty good, too, excepting some of the nights when his 3's were not falling.

Bojangles4Eva
02-09-2011, 04:37 PM
This sounds pretty similar to the post above. In fact it really isn't. The most important source of variation here is not the probability each shot is made, it is *whether the shot actually goes in*. For comparison, over a large number of games, our 40% shooter makes an average of 4 shots per game with a standard deviation of about 1.55. The shooter described in the original post also makes 4 shots per game on average, but with a standard deviation of 1.8. So while the variation in shooting percentages does make a difference, it is a smaller part of the variance compared to the randomness in the shots themselves. Admittedly, assuming shooting percentages vary is probably more realistic because in actual play shots are contested to varying degrees. But you have to take a LOT of shots per game before that becomes the more important source of variation in determining how many shots are actually made.

Thats very true, I kind of used a generalized situation (based on easily obtained shooting percentages) cause I figured thats the way coaches might quickly assess a certain shooting slump during game-time. However, I am not a coach nor a statistics teacher, so I could very well be totally wrong on all accounts, but thats the beauty of posting in a forum now isn't it? Haha

-bdbd
02-09-2011, 04:39 PM
Kenpom predicts we win 83-74 (80%).
http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

Kenpom and the Vegas line (Duke by 10) seems about right to me for a top-5 team playing a rivalry game at home vs a 23rd ranked younger team.

Come-on gang -- where's the confidence??!

Sure would be nice to put this one away early so that we can rest our starters....
;)

OldPhiKap
02-09-2011, 05:09 PM
I really do apologize, but I teach stats for a living so I can't let this one go.

Consider a shooter who has a 40% chance of making each shot. Assume shots are independent and that he takes 10 attempts per game. Then the number of shots he makes in a game is a binomial(10,.4) random variable. This means there is about a 90% chance he will make between 2 and 6 shots per game.

This sounds pretty similar to the post above. In fact it really isn't. The most important source of variation here is not the probability each shot is made, it is *whether the shot actually goes in*. For comparison, over a large number of games, our 40% shooter makes an average of 4 shots per game with a standard deviation of about 1.55. The shooter described in the original post also makes 4 shots per game on average, but with a standard deviation of 1.8. So while the variation in shooting percentages does make a difference, it is a smaller part of the variance compared to the randomness in the shots themselves. Admittedly, assuming shooting percentages vary is probably more realistic because in actual play shots are contested to varying degrees. But you have to take a LOT of shots per game before that becomes the more important source of variation in determining how many shots are actually made.

Did you know that 17.5% of all statistics are simply made up?


It's true.

superdave
02-09-2011, 05:14 PM
Henson and Zeller combine for 25.2 ppg. Mason and Ryan combine for 13.5 ppg. That's almost a 12 point difference, on average. According to Pomeroy, Duke and UNC have equivalent defenses and Duke's offense is much better, so coming close to their average probably isn't going to cut it. Therefore I think UNC needs to win the front court battle by a lot more than 15 if they're going to win the game.

Perhaps a better way took at it would be to throw in Miles and Knox's scoring.

That's 18.4 for Duke's 4/5 rotation and 31.2 for Unc's 4/5 guys. So if Zeller, Knox and Henson start pushing up towards 35-40 total points, then they've really exploited a front court advantage. I just dont see it. Our defense is better than that.

Kedsy
02-09-2011, 06:02 PM
Perhaps a better way took at it would be to throw in Miles and Knox's scoring.

That's 18.4 for Duke's 4/5 rotation and 31.2 for Unc's 4/5 guys. So if Zeller, Knox and Henson start pushing up towards 35-40 total points, then they've really exploited a front court advantage. I just dont see it. Our defense is better than that.

Well, it wouldn't surprise me if UNC's trio got into the 35 point range, or even higher, but I also wouldn't count 4 (or even 9) points above their average as "exploiting" their advantage unless they also hold our guys to well below our averages.

Incidentally, it's not much of a difference, but in the last six games, UNC's three main frontcourt guys have averaged 32.3 ppg, while our three main frontcourt guys have averaged 21.0.

Vasherized
02-09-2011, 06:14 PM
Good luck tonight, guys. Nice preview from Kevin Berger here.

Duke / UNC Thoughts (http://marchtomarch.fantake.com/2011/02/09/thoughts-on-duke-vs-north-carolina/)

The call is Duke 92-UNC 76.

ncexnyc
02-09-2011, 06:23 PM
He also has to hit a couple of shots so Henson has to stay on him. He does that and the middle could be open for Duke drives.

Why in the world would any sane coach put Henson on Kelly? Zeller on Kelly is the much better match-up. Kelly isn't about to put the ball on the floor and blow by Zeller. Having Henson on Kelly pulls Henson away from the basket, which is exactly what we'd want. No, if Ol' Roy's got any sense he leaves Henson on either Miles or Mason under the hoop.

Son of Mojo
02-09-2011, 06:44 PM
........just wow. Exactly how many unc grads DO work for the 4 letter network? We just HAD to be treated to how they had highlights of the '95 double OT game at home (or, as I like to say, when Stackhouse was fouled on the floor yet allowed a continuation dunk that they never stop showing). Guess they felt compelled to show some sort of Duke loss tonight. Ugh.

superdave
02-09-2011, 06:57 PM
........just wow. Exactly how many unc grads DO work for the 4 letter network? We just HAD to be treated to how they had highlights of the '95 double OT game at home (or, as I like to say, when Stackhouse was fouled on the floor yet allowed a continuation dunk that they never stop showing). Guess they felt compelled to show some sort of Duke loss tonight. Ugh.

Yeah, I'd prefer to see Doherty run away from the Duke bench in 2003, or Hansboro and Montross bleed.

gcashwell
02-09-2011, 07:45 PM
What he said was:


I don't think anyone has Kyle on their NPOY ballot.
He's really not in contention for ACC-POY. That would be Nolan.

The caption under the picture said he hadn't played upt to expectations. That is all I read. I don't care what ballot he isn't on. He is awesome.

cptnflash
02-09-2011, 08:22 PM
Kenpom and the Vegas line (Duke by 10) seems about right to me for a top-5 team playing a rivalry game at home vs a 23rd ranked younger team.

Come-on gang -- where's the confidence??!
Sure would be nice to put this one away early so that we can rest our starters....
;)

It's over on the IC message board.

Actually, the best thing about Carolina playing so much better is that their fans' expectations regarding this game have skyrocketed. In a span of about three weeks, the consensus over there has gone from "we have no chance at Cameron" to "we're better than Duke and definitely going to win." Which is great, because without high expectations you can't have major disappointment!

BlueThru&Thru
02-09-2011, 08:44 PM
or Hansboro and Montross bleed.

It's Hansbrough... Sir Hansbrough to you. BTW did you guys ever win against him? Specifically referring to HIS.:p

BlueThru&Thru
02-09-2011, 08:47 PM
It's over on the IC message board.

Actually, the best thing about Carolina playing so much better is that their fans' expectations regarding this game have skyrocketed.

Actually you are wrong. Most on THF give the edge to ugh..ugh..can't quite say it..but I'll try..Duke. There I did it.

basket1544
02-09-2011, 08:52 PM
Come on Syracuse - finish this game quickly so we can get to the main event!!!

Son of Mojo
02-09-2011, 09:05 PM
On the Raycom broadcast, Tim Brando started it off with "a combined 35 ACC titles and 10 national titles between the schools." I was so hoping G-Man would've corrected him on the spot. Ok, enough of that.............GO DEVILS!!!!!

wgl1228
02-09-2011, 09:05 PM
We've got to come out strong! Let's go Duke!

hsheffield
02-09-2011, 09:07 PM
I'm in Florida and was expecting to watch the game on ESPN3. They've blacked it out down here (can't figure why~)

Does anyone know of where I can get the game livestream????

thanks!!

slower
02-09-2011, 09:13 PM
Looks like a lot of the (hopeful) conventional wisdom isn't going to be worth a crap tonight.

Marshall blew by Thornton at will, Barnes has gotten the better of Singler, Zeller is feasting inside, Nolan's off. We shall see.

Not gonna be easy, folks.

devildownunder
02-09-2011, 09:13 PM
C'mon guys, wake up?

I think it's a mistake for us to try to play this at too high a tempo. Very surprised to see us not come out strong here.

(this based just on score) I can't get the game here at the moment.

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:14 PM
can't stop the penetration

Son of Mojo
02-09-2011, 09:15 PM
They've already let Marshall drive too often. The defense needs to recognize his drive and dish or it'll go on all game long.

Gthoma2a
02-09-2011, 09:16 PM
God I miss Kyrie! and Mason needs to take it up strong instead of going for finesse. He is a giant with amazing athleticism, there is no reason to downplay that. Let's go Devils!

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:20 PM
how many pts in the paint is that

WVDUKEFAN
02-09-2011, 09:21 PM
Too many 3's and no transition defense. C'mon guys!!

Gthoma2a
02-09-2011, 09:21 PM
I don't see why we are not penetrating at all. We are playing like we have no athleticism. We should be able to do more than shoot jumpers from the outside.

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:22 PM
I don't see why we are not penetrating at all. We are playing like we have no athleticism. We should be able to do more than shoot jumpers from the outside.

have you seen us play before

slower
02-09-2011, 09:24 PM
they can't even stop Marshall from penetrating, much less Strickland. Guess we'll have to hope for attrition by fouls or fatigue.

Sorry for the negativity, but I think it's warranted at this point. Psychologically, I guess Wheat was right.

Gthoma2a
02-09-2011, 09:24 PM
have you seen us play before

Of course, but until recently, we weren't afraid to get close to the basket, so we shouldn't be now. We still have very capable drivers.

AlaskanAssassin
02-09-2011, 09:25 PM
I miss Larry Drew

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:25 PM
Of course, but until recently, we weren't afraid to get close to the basket, so we shouldn't be now. We still have very capable drivers.

maybe, but the J is still first and foremost in their minds

gcashwell
02-09-2011, 09:26 PM
As poorly as duke is playing defensively, I am glad it is still this close.

grannyduke
02-09-2011, 09:28 PM
I'm in Florida and was expecting to watch the game on ESPN3. They've blacked it out down here (can't figure why~)

Does anyone know of where I can get the game livestream????

thanks!!
In Key West it has just come on FSN Comcast 401 after the Miami/Wake game.

WVDUKEFAN
02-09-2011, 09:29 PM
What did you guys take from the Erin Andrews comment on KI?

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:30 PM
What did you guys take from the Erin Andrews comment on KI?

what'd she say. missed it

dukeblue42323
02-09-2011, 09:31 PM
ahhhhh come on, we need this. UNC sucks

WVDUKEFAN
02-09-2011, 09:33 PM
It was kind of fast, but she talked to KI and discussed the injury details. She didn't say that Irving said he wouldn't be back..

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:34 PM
It was kind of fast, but she talked to KI and discussed the injury details. She didn't say that Irving said he wouldn't be back..

my head is spinning...say what?

SMO
02-09-2011, 09:35 PM
Duke looks too jacked up. The turnovers and quick 3's are preventing them from getting in an offensive rhythm. The D is looking better as the game goes on. With some foul trouble on UNC, it's time to attack.

Greg_Newton
02-09-2011, 09:35 PM
UNC is playing with much more purpose and getting every loose ball right now. Credit to Roy for outcoaching K so far.

We need someone to make a strong, in your face play or two and show everyone that UNC isn't that scary.

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:36 PM
the TOs are just terrible

Les Grossman
02-09-2011, 09:37 PM
...but has anyone mentioned the total absence of D on the ball?

WVDUKEFAN
02-09-2011, 09:37 PM
my head is spinning...say what?

Sorry.. trying to watch and type. Irving never said that he wouldn't be back based on Erin's interview.

_Gary
02-09-2011, 09:38 PM
This is pathetic. I haven't been this disgusted with a Duke/UNC game in a while now. Duke losing this game won't shock me. But the way they are allowing UNC to run all over them, and get into the lane at will, and outrebound them, is sad.

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:38 PM
the TOs are just terrible

as is the rebounding

WVDUKEFAN
02-09-2011, 09:38 PM
Nolan can't do it all. I didn't think Zeller was all that. We need to get a body on him.

rotogod00
02-09-2011, 09:39 PM
...but has anyone mentioned the total absence of D on the ball?

yup, can't stop penetration