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SCMatt33
02-03-2011, 03:21 PM
I was looking at the updated season stats and noticed that after last night, Nolan has scored 463 points so far this year. I remembered in the off-season, the idea of him reaching 2000 points was kicked around, but thought to be too much of a long shot. Coming into the year, Nolan had 1147 points, thus requiring 853 more to reach 2000. That would be one of the highest scoring seasons in Duke history. Since Kyrie got hurt, however (and after taking the Bradley game to adjust), Nolan has come on strong to raise his season average to 21 ppg. He now needs 390 more points to reach 2000 for his career. To get that he would need to average the following:

18 games left: 21.7 ppg
17 games left: 22.9 ppg
16 games left: 24.4 ppg
15 games left: 26.0 ppg
14 games left: 27.9 ppg
13 games left: 30.0 ppg
12 games left: 32.5 ppg
11 games left: 35.5 ppg

In the 13 games since scoring just 2 points against Bradley, Nolan has averaged 24.5 ppg. During that time his low is 18 points and he has failed to reach 20 just 3 times. Because of the larger numbers involved, his chase is more sensitive to the number of games remaining than Kyle's chases. If he keeps up his current pace, an ACC title game and Elite 8 appearance could get him there, though he would have a much more reasonable opportunity if Duke got to Houston. Either way, it is still a long shot. If Kyrie were to somehow come back (please, please, please!!!) it would definitely put a damper on Nolan's chances. Given that he's been able to sustain this type of scoring load for nearly 2 months now, however, I think it is worth following.

superdave
02-03-2011, 09:51 PM
18 games left: 21.7 ppg
17 games left: 22.9 ppg
16 games left: 24.4 ppg
15 games left: 26.0 ppg


Glad this got its own thread. Nolan is having an amazing senior year and is an odds-on pick for 1st team AA.

I dont see Nolan dropping a lot or gaining a whole lot in his ppg unless a consistent 3rd scorer emerges (Kyrie coming back?). So I'd bet on Nolan keeping a slightly less prolific pace (the 22.9 scenario), which means he's got to carry us to the Final Four. It's do-able, albeit unlikely.

UrinalCake
02-03-2011, 11:09 PM
I don't know, after yesterday I kind of feel like the team would be better served with some more balanced scoring, with Smith scoring more like in the low-20's rather than mid to high-20's. Then again, if Thornton becomes a fixture in the starting lineup, that probably bodes well for Smith reaching 2000 because a.) he can concentrate more on scoring and less on ball-handling, and b.) Thornton isn't much of a scorer himself which means there are more shots available for the taking.

In terms of personal achievement, I think Smith leading the ACC in both scoring and assists is way more impressive than reaching 2000 points. If he does this for the whole season he will definitely go down as one of the greatest players in the ACC.

DukieInBrasil
02-04-2011, 08:12 AM
I don't know, after yesterday I kind of feel like the team would be better served with some more balanced scoring, with Smith scoring more like in the low-20's rather than mid to high-20's. Then again, if Thornton becomes a fixture in the starting lineup, that probably bodes well for Smith reaching 2000 because a.) he can concentrate more on scoring and less on ball-handling, and b.) Thornton isn't much of a scorer himself which means there are more shots available for the taking.

In terms of personal achievement, I think Smith leading the ACC in both scoring and assists is way more impressive than reaching 2000 points. If he does this for the whole season he will definitely go down as one of the greatest players in the ACC.
Looking at Nolan's FGAs during this last stretch of games it's hard not to notice that he's putting up pretty much the same number of shots every game, vs Md. he actually shot the ball a little less than his average as of late. Seems to me that it's not as much of a question of how many shots are available for Nolan (seeing as how he's getting pretty much as many shots as he wants) but how many of them he makes. When he shoots well from the floor (vs. SJU he shot 10-19) he scores a lot (32) when he shoots less well (6-16 vs Md. or 6-22 @WF) he scores a little less (21 & 19) but he's not shooting that much less, and sometimes more.
One thing that is helping Nolan's pursuit of 2K pts is his FT% lately. Early in the year he was in the low-mid 70s%, but his extended stretch of great FT shooting has raised his average up to 82.5%.
Another thing that would really help him in his pursuit, and might even be improved with the return of Kyrie, is his 3FG%. At one point this year Nolan was shooting over 40% but that has dropped recently due to a rough stretch from beyond the arc to 33.7%, which is still reasonably good. If by the end of the year he were able to pull that up to 40% again, wow, he'd be in great shape for 2K pts.

superdave
02-04-2011, 10:15 AM
Nolan has been pretty adept at getting to the rim in the 2nd half of games when defenses get tired. He does it in transition, out of our spread offense and in the half-court. I like how Bilas pointed out the other night that Nolan can change speeds quickly. Except for a few games at the beginning of the ACC season, teams have not been able to slow down his penetration. He's playing with a lot of confidence, and those drives make our offense more efficient even if folks want to see more balance. If Nolan has an advantage, he should exploit it.

Saratoga2
02-04-2011, 11:27 AM
I was looking at the updated season stats and noticed that after last night, Nolan has scored 463 points so far this year. I remembered in the off-season, the idea of him reaching 2000 points was kicked around, but thought to be too much of a long shot. Coming into the year, Nolan had 1147 points, thus requiring 853 more to reach 2000. That would be one of the highest scoring seasons in Duke history. Since Kyrie got hurt, however (and after taking the Bradley game to adjust), Nolan has come on strong to raise his season average to 21 ppg. He now needs 390 more points to reach 2000 for his career. To get that he would need to average the following:

18 games left: 21.7 ppg
17 games left: 22.9 ppg
16 games left: 24.4 ppg
15 games left: 26.0 ppg
14 games left: 27.9 ppg
13 games left: 30.0 ppg
12 games left: 32.5 ppg
11 games left: 35.5 ppg

In the 13 games since scoring just 2 points against Bradley, Nolan has averaged 24.5 ppg. During that time his low is 18 points and he has failed to reach 20 just 3 times. Because of the larger numbers involved, his chase is more sensitive to the number of games remaining than Kyle's chases. If he keeps up his current pace, an ACC title game and Elite 8 appearance could get him there, though he would have a much more reasonable opportunity if Duke got to Houston. Either way, it is still a long shot. If Kyrie were to somehow come back (please, please, please!!!) it would definitely put a damper on Nolan's chances. Given that he's been able to sustain this type of scoring load for nearly 2 months now, however, I think it is worth following.

If he has 1975 who will think the less of him?

SCMatt33
02-04-2011, 11:54 AM
If he has 1975 who will think the less of him?

No one, but it's still fun to root for. Will I think less of this team if they lose in the second round? Of coarse not, but I'm still rooting for a title and will have fun discussing what it takes to get there. Same with individual accomplishments.

pfrduke
02-04-2011, 04:05 PM
Regardless of whether he gets all the way to 2000, continued high scoring plus deep tournament runs should vault Nolan into the Groat-Hill-Shelden-Langdon territory in total points (with Shane and Heyman not far away). That's rarified company to be keeping.

SCMatt33
02-06-2011, 02:34 AM
Nolan added 20 points against NC State to bring his career total to 1630, 370 shy of 2000. Here are his updated numbers. You know it's tough when a 20 point effort hurts his chances. It will take an incredible Nolan to get there and getting to Grant Hill and Shelden seems to be a much more likely without at least getting to Houston.

17 games left: 21.8 ppg
16 games left: 23.1 ppg
15 games left: 24.7 ppg
14 games left: 26.4 ppg
13 games left: 28.5 ppg
12 games left: 30.8 ppg
11 games left: 33.6 ppg
10 games left: 37.0 ppg

SCMatt33
02-09-2011, 11:53 PM
Having a career high always helps in this sort of chase. 34 more points puts Nolan at 1664 for his career. Here's what he need the rest of the way to reach 2000:

16 games left: 21.0
15 games left: 22.4
14 games left: 24.0
13 games left: 25.8
12 games left: 28.0
11 games left: 30.5
10 games left: 33.6
09 games left: 37.3

It still looks like it won't happen without an ACC final and Elite Eight trip (sans Kyrie), but with the way he's scoring, If Duke gets to the Final Four he will have a great shot, and if Duke goes all the way, I have a hard time seeing him not get there, considering how well he'll have to play for us to make it that far.

monkey
02-10-2011, 12:01 AM
where is he on the list of all time scorers now? Who is immediately ahead of him?

SCMatt33
02-10-2011, 12:19 AM
where is he on the list of all time scorers now? Who is immediately ahead of him?

Nolan actually had a big game tonight in terms of passing players on the all time list. He passed three guys, Cherokee Parks, Ronnie Mayer, and Randy Denton for 21st all time. He now sits directly behind Bobby Hurley, who has 1731.

tbyers11
02-10-2011, 12:19 AM
where is he on the list of all time scorers now? Who is immediately ahead of him?

Here is a link (http://www.scacchoops.com/ACCRecords.asp?sTeam=DU)at scacchoops.com to the all-time Duke scorers. You can also sort it to display ACC all time as well. It doesn't have tonight's numbers in it yet but it will shortly.

After tonight:

17. Jeff Mullins 1884
18. Bob Verga 1758
19. Bobby Hurley 1728
20. Nolan Smith 1664
21. Randy Denton 1658
22. Cherokee Parks 1643

He passed Denton and Parks tonight. Hurley's up next, likely in 3 or 4 games.

SCMatt33
02-10-2011, 12:33 AM
Here is a link (http://www.scacchoops.com/ACCRecords.asp?sTeam=DU)at scacchoops.com to the all-time Duke scorers. You can also sort it to display ACC all time as well. It doesn't have tonight's numbers in it yet but it will shortly.

After tonight:

17. Jeff Mullins 1884
18. Bob Verga 1758
19. Bobby Hurley 1728
20. Nolan Smith 1664
21. Randy Denton 1658
22. Cherokee Parks 1643

He passed Denton and Parks tonight. Hurley's up next, likely in 3 or 4 games.

I forgot to mention in my post about Ronnie Mayer's mark. Apparently, back in the 50's, there was a rule that allowed schools with small enrollment to be exempt from the freshman ineligibility rule. I don't know the specifics, whether the rule was short lived, or Duke only qualified for a short time, but it allowed Mayer to play his freshman year. The NCAA does not recognize stats from freshman during this period, but Duke does, so it depends on who you ask whether Nolan passed two or three guys tonight. Also, he currently 21st and not 20th because the SCACCHoops list is only since the formation of the ACC and leaves out Dick Groat.

tbyers11
02-10-2011, 12:40 AM
I forgot to mention in my post about Ronnie Mayer's mark. Apparently, back in the 50's, there was a rule that allowed schools with small enrollment to be exempt from the freshman ineligibility rule. I don't know the specifics, whether the rule was short lived, or Duke only qualified for a short time, but it allowed Mayer to play his freshman year. The NCAA does not recognize stats from freshman during this period, but Duke does, so it depends on who you ask whether Nolan passed two or three guys tonight. Also, he currently 21st and not 20th because the SCACCHoops list is only since the formation of the ACC and leaves out Dick Groat.

Thanks for the interesting tidbits. I linked to that page because it updates daily and is easier to link to than the pdf from the Duke media guide. Didn't realize there were so many discrepancies.

throatybeard
02-13-2011, 12:21 PM
When Bill Brill wrote his 1986 book, Mayer and Belmont were still in the top 20. Times change.

Olympic Fan
02-13-2011, 12:51 PM
I forgot to mention in my post about Ronnie Mayer's mark. Apparently, back in the 50's, there was a rule that allowed schools with small enrollment to be exempt from the freshman ineligibility rule. I don't know the specifics, whether the rule was short lived, or Duke only qualified for a short time, but it allowed Mayer to play his freshman year. The NCAA does not recognize stats from freshman during this period, but Duke does, so it depends on who you ask whether Nolan passed two or three guys tonight.

Actually, what happened was that the NCAA loosened freshman eligibility during the war years and was slow to close the loophole after VJ day. When they did move to prevent freshman eligibility, their first step was to ban all freshmen from postseason play, while allowing schools and conferences to decide if freshmen could play in the regular season.

But they ALSO ruled that since you could only play three years, if you played as a freshman, you would be ineligible to play in postseason as a senior -- your fourth year.

NC State got caught by this rule in 1951. The three seniors on that team -- All-American Sammy Ranzino, All-Southern Conference guard Vic Bubas and Paul Horvath -- had all played as freshmen in 1948. When State edged Duke in the 1951 Southern Conference finals, there was some pressure for the league to send Duke to the NCAA, in place of State -- since the Pack would be without their key three players. But Duke's Eddie Cameron, who ran the league's basketball committee, refused to override the conference champion. State played in the NCAA and actually won one game before losing in the Elite Eight (it was a 16-team tournament that year).

At the time, the Southern Conference allowed freshmen to play. After his 1951 experience, Case decided not to use freshmen on the varsity. His 1953 freshman class was the best he ever had (Ron Shavlik, Vic Molodet and company), but he elected to keep them on the freshman team (coached by Vic Bubas). That same year, Duke's Harold Bradley had maybe his best recruiting class -- Ronnie Mayer, Joe Belmont and Junior Morgan. He elected to play Mayer and Belmont ... he held out Morgan.

When the ACC was formed in the spring of 1953, the new league elected to follow the NCAA rule and ban freshmen eligibility. However, they grandfathered in the players who had already played as freshmen, allowing Mayer and Belmont (and others, such as Wake Forest's Dickie Hemric) to play four years.

The NCAA didn't change its rules -- if Wake had won the ACC in 1955, Hemric would not have been able to play in the NCAA Tournament. The same for Mayer and Belmont, who would have been ineligible for postseason play if Duke had won the 1956 tourney.

Mayer and Belmont were the ACC's last four-year players until the NCAA changed its rules in 1973.

SCMatt33
02-13-2011, 04:12 PM
Actually, what happened was that the NCAA loosened freshman eligibility during the war years and was slow to close the loophole after VJ day. When they did move to prevent freshman eligibility, their first step was to ban all freshmen from postseason play, while allowing schools and conferences to decide if freshmen could play in the regular season.

But they ALSO ruled that since you could only play three years, if you played as a freshman, you would be ineligible to play in postseason as a senior -- your fourth year.

NC State got caught by this rule in 1951. The three seniors on that team -- All-American Sammy Ranzino, All-Southern Conference guard Vic Bubas and Paul Horvath -- had all played as freshmen in 1948. When State edged Duke in the 1951 Southern Conference finals, there was some pressure for the league to send Duke to the NCAA, in place of State -- since the Pack would be without their key three players. But Duke's Eddie Cameron, who ran the league's basketball committee, refused to override the conference champion. State played in the NCAA and actually won one game before losing in the Elite Eight (it was a 16-team tournament that year).

At the time, the Southern Conference allowed freshmen to play. After his 1951 experience, Case decided not to use freshmen on the varsity. His 1953 freshman class was the best he ever had (Ron Shavlik, Vic Molodet and company), but he elected to keep them on the freshman team (coached by Vic Bubas). That same year, Duke's Harold Bradley had maybe his best recruiting class -- Ronnie Mayer, Joe Belmont and Junior Morgan. He elected to play Mayer and Belmont ... he held out Morgan.

When the ACC was formed in the spring of 1953, the new league elected to follow the NCAA rule and ban freshmen eligibility. However, they grandfathered in the players who had already played as freshmen, allowing Mayer and Belmont (and others, such as Wake Forest's Dickie Hemric) to play four years.

The NCAA didn't change its rules -- if Wake had won the ACC in 1955, Hemric would not have been able to play in the NCAA Tournament. The same for Mayer and Belmont, who would have been ineligible for postseason play if Duke had won the 1956 tourney.

Mayer and Belmont were the ACC's last four-year players until the NCAA changed its rules in 1973.

Sounds good to me. I just took my info from notes in the old Duke Update points list. Here's what they had to say:

Ronnie Mayer's and Joe Belmont's totals includes their Freshman season in which they played 25 and 22 games, respectively. Freshman eligibility in the 1952-53 season was permitted for schools with small student enrollment. The NCAA does not officially recognize statistics accumulated by freshmen prior to the 1972-73 season. Duke's official records include statistics from Ronnie Mayer's freshman season, but do not include statistics from Joe Belmont's freshman season.

I wouldn't put too much stock in it though.

SCMatt33
02-13-2011, 09:07 PM
Late in that first half, it looked like today was going to really hurt Nolan's run, but he came back with a big second half to get 18 points and lead the team in scoring. With that, Nolan is at 1682 for his career, 318 shy of 2000. Here's the latest on what he would need to reach the 2000 mark.

15 games left: 21.2 ppg
14 games left: 22.7 ppg
13 games left: 24.5 ppg
12 games left: 26.5 ppg
11 games left: 28.9 ppg
10 games left: 31.8 ppg
09 games left: 35.3 ppg
08 games left: 39.8 ppg

There is still little movement on what he would need to get there. Since I started following this, it has looked like an Elite Eight trip would be the minimum, but the Final Four would give him a reasonable shot at it. He is still 46 points shy of passing Bobby Hurley for 20th on the all time scoring list, so it will most likely take at least 2 games to get there.

rotogod00
02-13-2011, 09:11 PM
um, Hancock 4 Duke and SCMatt33, please check with your accountants and get back to us on the correct figures.

SCMatt33
02-13-2011, 10:23 PM
um, Hancock 4 Duke and SCMatt33, please check with your accountants and get back to us on the correct figures.

Mine are correct. 5 regular season ACC games, plus Temple, plus 1-3 ACCT, plus 1-6 NCAAT equals 8-15 games left.

SCMatt33
02-16-2011, 11:27 PM
22 more points for Nolan pretty much keeps the status quo. Here's what Nolan would need to get to 2000:

14 games left: 21.1 ppg
13 games left: 22.8 ppg
12 games left: 24.7 ppg
11 games left: 26.9 ppg
10 games left: 29.6 ppg
09 games left: 32.9 ppg
08 games left: 37.0 ppg
07 games left: 42.3 ppg

Nolan passed the 1700 point mark tonight, with 1704 total. He is now 24 points short of tying Bobby Hurley for 20th on Duke's all time list.

uh_no
02-17-2011, 12:27 AM
22 more points for Nolan pretty much keeps the status quo. Here's what Nolan would need to get to 2000:

14 games left: 21.1 ppg
13 games left: 22.8 ppg
12 games left: 24.7 ppg
11 games left: 26.9 ppg
10 games left: 29.6 ppg
09 games left: 32.9 ppg
08 games left: 37.0 ppg
07 games left: 42.3 ppg

Nolan passed the 1700 point mark tonight, with 1704 total. He is now 24 points short of tying Bobby Hurley for 20th on Duke's all time list.

Only sorta kinda keeps the status quo. WHat it does is solidifies the fact that we need to reach both the ACC and NCAA title games for him to have a shot.

johnb
02-17-2011, 12:56 AM
Only sorta kinda keeps the status quo. WHat it does is solidifies the fact that we need to reach both the ACC and NCAA title games for him to have a shot.

which is somewhat more likely than him averaging 42 points AND us losing in the first round in both tournaments.

uh_no
02-17-2011, 01:23 AM
which is somewhat more likely than him averaging 42 points AND us losing in the first round in both tournaments.

Right. HE only needed 39 before. thats a difference of 3 points a game!!!!

SCMatt33
02-17-2011, 08:35 AM
Only sorta kinda keeps the status quo. WHat it does is solidifies the fact that we need to reach both the ACC and NCAA title games for him to have a shot.

What I meant is that it keeps the status quo in terms of needing an Elite 8 trip (with ACC final) to have any shot, seeing as Nolan is averaging 24.3 since that 2 point effort against Bradley. He would need a FF for a somewhat good shot and a title game for a good shot at it. This is really no different than what I identified at his benchmarks since I started following this. I don't really see the jump from 35 ppg to 42 ppg for two first round losses since I started following it as changing the status quo, since both are above his career high.

uh_no
02-17-2011, 09:34 AM
What I meant is that it keeps the status quo in terms of needing an Elite 8 trip (with ACC final) to have any shot, seeing as Nolan is averaging 24.3 since that 2 point effort against Bradley. He would need a FF for a somewhat good shot and a title game for a good shot at it. This is really no different than what I identified at his benchmarks since I started following this. I don't really see the jump from 35 ppg to 42 ppg for two first round losses since I started following it as changing the status quo, since both are above his career high.

Yeah I know. I kind of take this from a much more objective standpoint. It makes it more unlikely he will do it in a shorter number of games, but more likely he does it if we go the distance, i kinda like ignoring the fact that he wasn't going to average 39 or 42 points the way out! i guess just from a straight math perspective, with so many points to go, and so few games left, any data point turns out to be significant

but yeah, agree, we have to play all 14 or maybe 15 for him to have a chance, and that will stay true regardless of most individual performances (short of a 35+ performance)

SCMatt33
02-20-2011, 10:25 PM
With 28 more points tonight, Nolan has 1732 for his career, 268 shy of 2000. He passed Bobby Hurley tonight for 20th place on Duke's all time scoring list. Here is what Nolan would need the rest of the way to reach 2000.

13 games left: 20.6 ppg
12 games left: 22.3 ppg
11 games left: 24.4 ppg
10 games left: 26.8 ppg
09 games left: 29.8 ppg
08 games left: 33.5 ppg
07 games left: 38.3 ppg
06 games left: 44.7 ppg

Since New Year's Day, Nolan has been averaging 24.7 ppg over a span of 15 games. This includes the entire ACC season plus the UAB game. So I think that it's no longer a super long shot to say that he could do it with an ACC final and Elite 8 appearance. A final four makes it realistic, and I would call it likely if we went all the way. Given that it would be pretty tough to increase his scoring from what it is now, I would call it next to impossible for him to make it without getting to the Elite 8, and it's getting comical to watch the scoring for the minimum number of games skyrocket as games left starts to become more and more important. Heck, Pistol Pete and Wilt Chamberlain would have a tough time getting there in 6 games. Of course, Kyrie coming back would throw a wrench into that, but even if we got Kyrie back, given that it would take him a few games to get back up to speed, I still think Nolan could get there with Kyrie provided that Duke goes all the way. Nolan's scoring has been remarkably consistent, scoring at least 18 in every game since that 2 point effort against Bradley when he was feeling out life without Kyrie.

SuperTurkey
02-20-2011, 10:41 PM
06 games left: 44.7 ppg

Heck, Pistol Pete and Wilt Chamberlain would have a tough time getting there in 6 games.

Just to keep the insanity that was Pistol Pete in perspective, he averaged 44.5 ppg his senior year. So, he probably wouldn't have had a tough time pressing above his average for 6 games. Especially if we were letting him count threes. :D

SCMatt33
02-23-2011, 09:26 PM
"Only" 15 points tonight for Nolan serves as a bit of a correction for his 28 point effort last time out. While passing 2000 during the Elite 8 was starting to look like a possibility, it now looks out of reach. Nolan now has 1747 points for his career, 253 shy of 2000. He is only 12 points shy of passing Bob Verga for 19th on the all time list. Here is what Nolan would need the rest of the way:

12 games left: 21.1
11 games left: 23.0
10 games left: 25.3
09 games left: 28.1
08 games left: 31.6
07 games left: 36.1
06 games left: 42.2
05 games left: 50.6

I would probably just stop posting what it would take in the minimum number of games, but it is so ridiculous that it's fun to watch anyway. Unless your talking about Wilt in 1962, no one would ever get there in 5 games.

SCMatt33
02-27-2011, 02:31 PM
Sorry for the late update, I was out of town and didn't have internet access. Anyway, 18 more points for Nolan keeps him within striking distance if Duke goes all the way, and gives him some kind of shot with a Final Four loss. Beyond that, it is really not possible, so I will post down to the Elite 8 to show what is just past reasonable, but it's not worth posting beyond that. For an Elite 8 trip or less, a much more reasonable goal is passing Shelden at 1927 points for 15th on the all time list. BTW, with his 18 points last night, Nolan officially passed Bob Verga for 19th on the scoring list. There is a big gap up to 18th, where Jeff Mullins has 1884. Here is what Nolan would need the rest of the way for 2000:

11 games left: 21.4 ppg
10 games left: 23.5 ppg
09 games left: 26.1 ppg
any less (4-8 games): extremely unlikely

To reach 1928 points and pass Shelden for 15th:
11 games left: 14.8 ppg
10 games left: 16.3 ppg
09 games left: 18.1 ppg
08 games left: 20.4 ppg
07 games left: 23.3 ppg
06 games left: 27.2 ppg
any less (4-5 games): extremely unlikely

BTW, to put all of this in perspective, Nolan didn't even have 500 career points after his sophomore year and has really done a ton of damage in the last two years, scoring 1278 points since the start of his junior year. Of coarse, he has done this while playing 3 seasons with a top ten all time scorer in Jon and his entire career next to a top 5 all time scorer in Kyle. Passing guys like Bobby Hurley and Bob Verga, while having a chance to pass guys like Grant Hill and Shelden Williams while playing next to some all time greats is really amazing no matter what his final point total is.

SCMatt33
03-02-2011, 11:22 PM
21 points on senior night for Nolan. He now has 1786 points for his career. With his scoring going down a bit over the last few games, it is looking less and less likely that this is possible. He continues to keep Shelden in his sights to make the top 15 on the all time list. Here is what Nolan would need for 2000:

10 games left: 21.4 ppg
09 games left: 23.8 ppg
08 games left: 26.8 ppg
Any less (3-7): over 30 ppg

and to pass Shelden:

10 games left: 14.2 ppg
09 games left: 15.8 ppg
08 games left: 17.8 ppg
07 games left: 20.3 ppg
06 games left: 23.7 ppg
05 games left: 28.4 ppg
Any less (3-4): over 30 ppg

Looking back, it's still crazy to think how far he has come in his career. While Kyle has been there since day one, starting all but one of his career games, Nolan had to come back from being yanked from the starting lineup in the middle of his sophomore year just months after Johnny Dawkins left for Stanford. He could have very easily quit (like a certain other NBA son down the road), but he worked so hard and will be remembered among the greats.

superdave
03-03-2011, 10:55 AM
21 points on senior night for Nolan. He now has 1786 points for his career. With his scoring going down a bit over the last few games, it is looking less and less likely that this is possible. He continues to keep Shelden in his sights to make the top 15 on the all time list. Here is what Nolan would need for 2000:

10 games left: 21.4 ppg
09 games left: 23.8 ppg
08 games left: 26.8 ppg
Any less (3-7): over 30 ppg

and to pass Shelden:

10 games left: 14.2 ppg
09 games left: 15.8 ppg
08 games left: 17.8 ppg
07 games left: 20.3 ppg
06 games left: 23.7 ppg
05 games left: 28.4 ppg
Any less (3-4): over 30 ppg

Looking back, it's still crazy to think how far he has come in his career. While Kyle has been there since day one, starting all but one of his career games, Nolan had to come back from being yanked from the starting lineup in the middle of his sophomore year just months after Johnny Dawkins left for Stanford. He could have very easily quit (like a certain other NBA son down the road), but he worked so hard and will be remembered among the greats.

I'm betting on another 34 points vs. Unc this weekend. That's going to kick off a frenzy in this thread!

SCMatt33
03-06-2011, 01:38 AM
I'm betting on another 34 points vs. Unc this weekend. That's going to kick off a frenzy in this thread!

Not quite 34, but Nolan's 30 is one of the few bright spots from the game tonight. Getting this close to the end is really starting to show how much things can change. Compared to last time, Nolan's needed average dropped 1 ppg for a title run and .8 ppg for a Final Four run. His 30 bumps him up to 1816 for his career, 184 shy of 2000, and 112 shy of Shelden for 15th. Next on the list is Jeff Mullins in 18th with 1884, 68 ahead of Nolan. If Nolan wants to get to 2000, he's likely going to need to pass Mullins during the ACC Tourney. Anyway, here is what Nolan needs the rest of the way for 2000:

9 games left: 20.4 ppg
8 games left: 23.0 ppg
7 games left: 26.3 ppg
Any less (2-6): over 30 ppg

and to pass Shelden for 15th:

9 games left: 12.4 ppg
8 games left: 14.0 ppg
7 games left: 16.0 ppg
6 games left: 18.7 ppg
5 games left: 22.4 ppg
4 games left: 28.0
2 or 3 games: over 30 ppg

Also of note is that Nolan has 669 points on the year, which passes his final total from last season of 660.

Greg_Newton
03-08-2011, 02:47 AM
Apologies if this has been addressed, but has Duke ever had a player average 20-5-5 in a season? Hill always fell short with points, and while Ferry was close, he didn't break 5 assists. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone from decades ago, but can't think who it would be.

But if Nolan had 6 more rebounds on the season, he would be doing that. So basically, he would need to average ~6RPG from here out (rather than 4.8) to average 20+ points, 5+ assists and 5+ rebounds on the season, along with being on the ACC all-defensive team. Pretty incredible.

DukieInBrasil
03-08-2011, 08:48 AM
Apologies if this has been addressed, but has Duke ever had a player average 20-5-5 in a season? Hill always fell short with points, and while Ferry was close, he didn't break 5 assists. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone from decades ago, but can't think who it would be.

But if Nolan had 6 more rebounds on the season, he would be doing that. So basically, he would need to average ~6RPG from here out (rather than 4.8) to average 20+ points, 5+ assists and 5+ rebounds on the season, along with being on the ACC all-defensive team. Pretty incredible.

During the game the other night they said he would be the first in the ACC to ever do that. Announcers sometimes speak incorrectly though, so TIWAGOS.

SCMatt33
03-08-2011, 09:03 AM
During the game the other night they said he would be the first in the ACC to ever do that. Announcers sometimes speak incorrectly though, so TIWAGOS.

The funny thing is that the announcers did not speak incorrectly, but he would not be the first to do it at Duke. Dick Groat did it in 1952 before the ACC was formed.

JoshBellDC
03-08-2011, 10:17 PM
if you asked me 2 years ago after 2 years averaging under 10 PPG if there would even be a thread like this mulling Nolan's chance at 2000 i would have said you are crazy (not cameron crazy, just plain crazy...). but look at us now!

basket1544
03-09-2011, 07:47 AM
Can anyone speak to how many assists Jeff Mullins had? Goduke.statsgeek doesn't list assists for his seasons but he did have 20+ points and 5+ rebounds (21 and 9 for his career).

SCMatt33
03-12-2011, 06:20 PM
I didn't feel right about updating this after yesterday's game since we didn't know whether Duke games remaining and Nolan games remaining were the same thing. Between the two games so far, Nolan has scored 34 points (7 and 27). He now has 1850 points for his career, 150 shy of 2000 and 78 shy of passing Shelden for 15th on Duke's all time list. He is 34 points behind Jeff Mullins and 36 points behind Dick Groat so a ridiculous performance tomorrow could put him up in that territory. His 7 point effort yesterday basically made this a Championship game or bust chase, as would need 25 ppg exactly to get there in the semifinals. Here is what he would need to get to 2000:

7 games left: 21.4 ppg
6 games left: 25.0 ppg
any less (2-5): at least 30.0 ppg

and to pass Shelden for 15th:

7 games left: 11.1 ppg
6 games left: 13.0 ppg
5 games left: 15.6 ppg
4 games left: 19.5 ppg
3 games left: 26.0 ppg
2 games left: 39.0 ppg

Nolan looks pretty good to get to Shelden with a Sweet 16 trip and an Elite 8 or Final Four appearance could put him in that Langdon/Battier/Heyman area just shy of 2000.

Either way, I think we will all agree that the most important thing was that Nolan looked healthy today and that his poor offensive performance before getting hurt was just a 1 game thing.

Bob Green
03-12-2011, 06:29 PM
Dick Groat did it in 1952 before the ACC was formed.

Are you sure? When did "assists" become an official statistic? I believe it was well after Groat's playing days.

rthomas
03-12-2011, 06:29 PM
I just want this years average against UNC tomorrow.

SCMatt33
03-12-2011, 06:55 PM
Are you sure? When did "assists" become an official statistic? I believe it was well after Groat's playing days.

Both rebounds and assists became official in his senior year, at least according to Go Duke's stats page. He might have done it 3 times otherwise.

Jim3k
03-13-2011, 06:15 AM
Both rebounds and assists became official in his senior year, at least according to Go Duke's stats page. He might have done it 3 times otherwise.

Not entirely sure about that. For the Thousand Pointers, John Roth's Encyclopedia of Duke Basketball (pp. 404-412), shows Groat to have had 229 assists in 1952, but blank for 1950 and 1951. Others of his age are the same; 1952 shows entries, but not other years. Ronnie Mayer, Joe Belmont and Bernie Janicki from 1953-56 are blank. Jumping forward 10-15 years or so, Youngkin, Hurt, Heyman, Mullins, Verga, Marin and Mike Lewis (1968 and earlier) are also blank. Further review of those same pages, e.g., Randy Denton and Rick Katherman, suggests that assists were once again tracked beginning in 1969 as both those players have entries that year and later. The 500 Rebound Club is the same pre-1969, though there were no 500 rebounders in 1969.

I therefore think that 1969 is the definitive year assists began to be tracked, with 1952 being an early outlier.

SCMatt33
03-13-2011, 03:16 PM
Jim3K, you're absolutely right. I forgot that they tried it, then took it away.

As for today, WOOHOO! Nolan scored 20 points, bringing him to 1870 for the year, meaning that he will need 130 points in the NCAA tourney. Here are the specifics to get there.

Title game: 21.7 ppg
Final Four: 26.0 ppg
any less: over 30 ppg

Passing Shelden for 15th is much easier:

Title Game: 9.7 ppg
Final Four: 11.6 ppg
Elite 8: 14.5 ppg
Sweet 16: 19.3 ppg
3rd Round (stupid new names): 29.0 ppg
2nd Round: 58 points in the game.

almostrufio
03-13-2011, 06:25 PM
So when is the ACC leader in Points and Assists tabulated? Is it at the end of the regular season or the tournament? Anyone have numbers on this? We were talking about this a lot earlier.

Rich
03-13-2011, 06:26 PM
So when is the ACC leader in Points and Assists tabulated? Is it at the end of the regular season or the tournament? Anyone have numbers on this? We were talking about this a lot earlier.

I don't have official #'s, but I'm pretty sure Kendall Marshall had more assists whether you include the ACC Tourney or not.

SCMatt33
03-13-2011, 08:14 PM
So when is the ACC leader in Points and Assists tabulated? Is it at the end of the regular season or the tournament? Anyone have numbers on this? We were talking about this a lot earlier.

I'm not sure, but Rece Davis just said that Nolan did in fact lead the ACC in points and assists. Not sure if that's accurate, though.

basket1544
03-13-2011, 11:28 PM
According to ESPN, Marshall has 187 assists and Nolan has 168 for this season.

SCMatt33
03-18-2011, 05:35 PM
I think we have a good news/bad news situation here, and the good news far outweighs the bad. The bad news is that it looks very unlikely for Nolan to get to 2000. Scoring 9 points today leaves him 121 points shy of 2000. He would need 24.2 ppg if we reach the title game. Anything less would require over 30 ppg. Even if we didn't have Kyrie back that would be a tall order. With him back, I would be absolutely shocked. Reaching Shelden to break into the top 15 on Duke's all time list remains a reasonable goal. He is currently 49 points shy of taking sole possession of 15th on the all time list. Speaking of moving up the all time list, Nolan has 1879 points, just 5 shy of Jeff Mullins for 18th, and just 7 shy of Dick Groat for 17th. Even with Kyrie back, he should be able to reach both in the second (NOT third) round. As for his chase to make the top 15 and pass Shelden, here is what he needs the rest of the way:

5 Games left: 9.8 ppg
4 Games left: 12.3 ppg
3 Games left: 16.3 ppg
2 Games left: 24.5 ppg
1 Game left: 49.0 points on Sunday

Either way, KYRIE'S BACK BABY!

Saratoga2
03-18-2011, 06:11 PM
I think we have a good news/bad news situation here, and the good news far outweighs the bad. The bad news is that it looks very unlikely for Nolan to get to 2000. Scoring 9 points today leaves him 121 points shy of 2000. He would need 24.2 ppg if we reach the title game. Anything less would require over 30 ppg. Even if we didn't have Kyrie back that would be a tall order. With him back, I would be absolutely shocked. Reaching Shelden to break into the top 15 on Duke's all time list remains a reasonable goal. He is currently 49 points shy of taking sole possession of 15th on the all time list. Speaking of moving up the all time list, Nolan has 1879 points, just 5 shy of Jeff Mullins for 18th, and just 7 shy of Dick Groat for 17th. Even with Kyrie back, he should be able to reach both in the second (NOT third) round. As for his chase to make the top 15 and pass Shelden, here is what he needs the rest of the way:

5 Games left: 9.8 ppg
4 Games left: 12.3 ppg
3 Games left: 16.3 ppg
2 Games left: 24.5 ppg
1 Game left: 49.0 points on Sunday

Either way, KYRIE'S BACK BABY!

As great as it would be for Nolan to reach 2000, it is far more importaant for Duke to continue winning. If Nolan only gets 10 points, but contributes well to the team winning, then we should be happy for him and the team both.

SCMatt33
03-20-2011, 05:46 PM
Congrats to Nolan on passing Jeff Mullins and Dick Groat on the all time scoring list. He now has 1903 for his career, becoming just the 17th Duke player to reach that mark. With his performance today, Nolan keeps his hopes alive (just barely) of reaching 2000. If we made the title game, Nolan would need 24.3 ppg. It's not likely, but possible. Meanwhile Nolan is just 23 points short of passing Grant Hill at 1925 and just 25 points short of passing Shelden Williams at 1927, both of which are possible in the Sweet 16 with another excellent performance.

Either way, I'm pretty sure that Nolan and everyone on this site is glad to have a Sweet 16 game at all.

SCMatt33
03-25-2011, 09:45 AM
Congratulations to Nolan, who finishes his career with 1911 points, 17th most all time at Duke.