Fan Confidence Poll - January 31, 2011

[rotogod00]

Timing of this may not be great following yesterday's loss, but I've been thinking of starting something like this for a while. Borrowing this concept from another fan site I frequent. Consider this a trial run, but please let me know how you feel about keeping this as a regular weekly feature around here, even into the offseason.

Anyway, here's the polling question:
Given the team's current roster construction, recruiting situation, coaching, etc., how confident are you in Duke's future, both this season and beyond?

[PADukeMom]

I am 100% opTOEmistic. I would rather lose in January than in March.

[Indoor66]

Timing of this may not be great following yesterday's loss, but I've been thinking of starting something like this for a while. Borrowing this concept from another fan site I frequent. Consider this a trial run, but please let me know how you feel about keeping this as a regular weekly feature around here, even into the offseason.

Anyway, here's the polling question:
Given the team's current roster construction, recruiting situation, coaching, etc., how confident are you in Duke's future, both this season and beyond?

That is an extremely broad question. Can you define it a little further? What are we to be confident/not confident about? Coach K? National Championship? ACC Regular Season? ACC Tourney? Recruiting? Kyrie?

What is the issue?

[NovaScotian]

That is an extremely broad question. Can you define it a little further? What are we to be confident/not confident about? Coach K? National Championship? ACC Regular Season? ACC Tourney? Recruiting? Kyrie?

What is the issue?

i agree. while, i did vote, i think this is a pretty stupid question unless clarified further. not that my answer would really change.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Losses in January mean nothing. They give the coaches a great teaching moment - see January 30, 2010.

This team has 19 more games to play. The ride starts on Wednesday night, so fasten your seat belts boys and girls!

[91_92_01_10_15]

I think this is an interesting idea, but I think you should narrow the focus (e.g. How confident are you that Duke will reach the Final 4, or how confident are you that Duke will retain its elite status when Coach K retires?)

[brevity]

I have zero confidence in this thread, and it makes no sense to vote. It's like asking a bunch of strangers, "Do you like grapefruit?" (At least if you asked about apples, you'd get that Good Will Hunting punchline. But grapefruit?)

As others have mentioned, this concept here is too broad. Without that clarification in the adjoining post, I'm not even sure that you're talking about basketball.

Better poll questions:

1. If the NCAA Tournament started today, and each region looked equally tough, how far do you think the Duke men's basketball team would go?

2. Would you rather have Coach K develop a large tree of successful head coaches, or keep the talent on a single staff in Durham for as long as possible?

3. Do you regret visiting DBR after a loss?

[CDu]

I have zero confidence in this thread, and it makes no sense to vote. It's like asking a bunch of strangers, "Do you like grapefruit?" (At least if you asked about apples, you'd get that Good Will Hunting punchline. But grapefruit?)

As others have mentioned, this concept here is too broad. Without that clarification in the adjoining post, I'm not even sure that you're talking about basketball.

Better poll questions:

1. If the NCAA Tournament started today, and each region looked equally tough, how far do you think the Duke men's basketball team would go?

2. Would you rather have Coach K develop a large tree of successful head coaches, or keep the talent on a single staff in Durham for as long as possible?

3. Do you regret visiting DBR after a loss?

Agreed. There are just so many ways one could answer this question.

One could feel very unconfident about this year but feel very confident about where we're going (based on incoming recruits). One could feel very confident about this year and not about next year (because we lose Singler, Smith, and maybe Irving). And one could "feel good" regardless simply because the program won the title last year, ending any questions about Duke fading as a national powerhouse. It's just too vague.

[johnb]

I have zero confidence in this thread, and it makes no sense to vote. It's like asking a bunch of strangers, "Do you like grapefruit?"

I think it's more like asking, "are you confident in grapefruit?"

[rotogod00]

To all who expressed concerns, I can't disagree with you that it can be a bit broad. Again, I borrowed the concept from another fan site where they do a weekly poll asking how confident you are in the team's overall future. Maybe when they first introduced it, it generated the same types of questions/concerns you guys are having. Today, though, 3 years later, upwards of a 1,000 people vote in the poll each week.

At the end of the day, you can interpret it and answer any way you see fit. Can be short-term, long-term, or any combination in between. In-season, think most people probably vote short-term on how confident they are with the season at hand. During the off-season, maybe more long-term about the state of the team looking forward concerning things like recruiting and such.

Anyway, thought it could be interesting to see how the numbers ebb and flow over the course of the season and into the offseason.

If you guys don't like it, it can certainly be dropped.

[mapei]

I voted six because I based it on confidence that we'll be a serious contender this year for the national championship, which seems to be the board expectation. So I'm 60% confident of that.

OTOH, my confidence that Duke will remain a winning, top-10 caliber program for years to come is close to 100%.

[OldPhiKap]

Daisy Duke -- 10
Bo Duke -- 8
Luke Duke -- 6
Mortimer and Randolph Duke -- 4 and falling fast

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Once again I think I am in the minority but the question is not to broad at all to me and very easy to answer. I said a 10, Our current roster is loaded with role players, Some 4 year guys who will devlop into solid starters come senior year, Coach K and Co. are healthy and doing there thing, recruiting has taken an upswing with recent signings of Kyrie and Austin, We are recruiting 4 year guys and role players but still go after a couple early exit guys to make a balanced team.

I interpreted the question as follows: How will this team be doing over the next 2 to 5 years in terms of winning. (NCAA Chapionships, NCAA Final Fours, ACC Tourny wins, ACC regular season crowns, and 30 win seasons)

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Agreed. There are just so many ways one could answer this question.

One could feel very unconfident about this year but feel very confident about where we're going (based on incoming recruits). One could feel very confident about this year and not about next year (because we lose Singler, Smith, and maybe Irving). And one could "feel good" regardless simply because the program won the title last year, ending any questions about Duke fading as a national powerhouse. It's just too vague.

I would think it would be like averaging it out. Say you are not as confident this year so give it a 8, but next you think we are set to win again and give it a 10. Well your confidence level could be a 9 overall.

[left_hook_lacey]

Yeah, I'm gonna have to go ahead and pass on this vote. Why wouldn't we be confident in the future of Duke? What future? The near future? 20 years from now? Or are you talking about academics? Women's sports?

Without knowing exactly what you're referring to, I can still easily say "yes" I'm confident in the future of Duke University.

[weezie]

I think it's more like asking, "are you confident in grapefruit?"

Meh, grapefruit. Best used in a sea breeze drink with some cranberry juice and vodka.

OTOH, Duke Basketball, that's my team, always will be, thick or thin.
Just give me an excuse to back that up.....please.

[weezie]

Daisy Duke -- 10
Bo Duke -- 8
Luke Duke -- 6
Mortimer and Randolph Duke -- 4 and falling fast

I'm going to put "The Duke of Earl" at #1 on your list OPK.

[rotogod00]

Yeah, I'm gonna have to go ahead and pass on this vote. Why wouldn't we be confident in the future of Duke? What future? The near future? 20 years from now? Or are you talking about academics? Women's sports?

Without knowing exactly what you're referring to, I can still easily say "yes" I'm confident in the future of Duke University.

We're talking duke basketball. I know other things are discussed around here, but the site is Duke Basketball Report.

Sorry for the confusion.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Yeah, I'm gonna have to go ahead and pass on this vote. Why wouldn't we be confident in the future of Duke? What future? The near future? 20 years from now? Or are you talking about academics? Women's sports?

Without knowing exactly what you're referring to, I can still easily say "yes" I'm confident in the future of Duke University.

Ok not to bash here, but that is just one ignorant post man. Of course its Duke mens basketball.

[mac46]

We're talking duke basketball. I know other things are discussed around here, but the site is Duke Basketball Report.

Sorry for the confusion.

I was with you, it's like an approval rating for the team in general. I think some people were just in a particularly ill mood after Sunday's game. Not that you can blame 'em, really.

[BleedsP287]

Very confident. We have a very bright future. Great talent this year, and maybe KI will be back. Great talent coming in next year. Best coach in the game. Best home court arguably. Best fans arguably.

Not much not to like. An injured star, some position players need to mature. In a bit of funk at the moment. All that will resolve.

I'm as confident as possible, not saying we're a lock for a repeat, but we're in the mix, gotta love it.

[Rudy]

Ok not to bash here, but that is just one ignorant post man. Of course its Duke mens basketball.
Ohhhh, THAT really narrows it down.:rolleyes:

Confidence that this team would go undefeated for the year? 0 now, formerly 1

Confidence that the current team is the best in the country and will go to the final four? 5 now, formerly 7

Confidence that it is a very good team with as good a chance as any other college team to get to the final four and win it all? 10 now, formerly 10

Confidence that this team like any good team can lose at any point, including early in the tournament? 10 now, formerly 10

Confidence that Duke men's basketball will for the foreseeable future remain one of the elite teams and programs in the country year-in, year-out? 10 now, formerly 10

Confidence that this exercise is a waste of time, except for making fun of inane polls? 10 now, formerly 9

[rotogod00]

Ohhhh, THAT really narrows it down.:rolleyes:

Confidence that this team would go undefeated for the year? 0 now, formerly 1

Confidence that the current team is the best in the country and will go to the final four? 5 now, formerly 7

Confidence that it is a very good team with as good a chance as any other college team to get to the final four and win it all? 10 now, formerly 10

Confidence that this team like any good team can lose at any point, including early in the tournament? 10 now, formerly 10

Confidence that Duke men's basketball will for the foreseeable future remain one of the elite teams and programs in the country year-in, year-out? 10 now, formerly 10

Confidence that this exercise is a waste of time, except for making fun of inane polls? 10 now, formerly 9

As I explained earlier, you can interpret "How confident are you in Duke's overall future" and vote in the poll any way you see fit. Or, you know what, don't bother. 100+ other people didn't complain and didn't seem to have a problem voting. We won't miss your input.

[sagegrouse]

a. That Duke will remain one of the 4-5 top college programs over the next five years.

b. That each year will have potential for an ACC championship, a Final Four, and maybe a National Championship.

c. Whether FF and NC are achieved will probability depend on unknown future values of certain stochastic variables (otherwise known as 'The Basketball Gods').

What are the major risks to the basketball program?

1. K continuing as coach. Well, K is about to turn 64 and his continued enthusiasm for college basketball and good health are important. If he were to retire, someone would be replacing a legend, and except for Joe B. Hall replacing Rupp at Kentucky, there have usually been hiccoughs.

2. Decline in the ACC. I sense that Duke and UNC have taking the starch out of the rest of the teams in the conference. And I don't know that the coaching and competition will again reach the level of 20-25 years ago. E.g., Donahue, Brownell and Tony Bennett look like terrific hires. But whose to stay they don't listen to high-dollar offers from teams in the other major conferences?

3. Player matters. Some basketball players will not be as good as the staff thinks; some may even be better. I worry less about teamwork and character, not because we recruit saints, but because the program is so well run and expectations for player behavior are so clear.

sagegrouse
' I didn't read the other comments before posting, so much of this may have been said above'

[Duke: A Dynasty]

a. That Duke will remain one of the 4-5 top college programs over the next five years.

b. That each year will have potential for an ACC championship, a Final Four, and maybe a National Championship.

c. Whether FF and NC are achieved will probability depend on unknown future values of certain stochastic variables (otherwise known as 'The Basketball Gods').

What are the major risks to the basketball program?

1. K continuing as coach. Well, K is about to turn 64 and his continued enthusiasm for college basketball and good health are important. If he were to retire, someone would be replacing a legend, and except for Joe B. Hall replacing Rupp at Kentucky, there have usually been hiccoughs.

2. Decline in the ACC. I sense that Duke and UNC have taking the starch out of the rest of the teams in the conference. And I don't know that the coaching and competition will again reach the level of 20-25 years ago. E.g., Donahue, Brownell and Tony Bennett look like terrific hires. But whose to stay they don't listen to high-dollar offers from teams in the other major conferences?

3. Player matters. Some basketball players will not be as good as the staff thinks; some may even be better. I worry less about teamwork and character, not because we recruit saints, but because the program is so well run and expectations for player behavior are so clear.

sagegrouse
' I didn't read the other comments before posting, so much of this may have been said above'

Do not even bother a lot of them are just hate comments about the poll. But your points are good! That is basically what I used to determine my rating for confidence. I also factored in how well recruiting has gone as of late and how it will continue over the next 2 to 5 years.

[4decadedukie]

The poll’s instructions, of course, did NOT specify if “fan confidence” was to be measured for this season, or for the next few years, or for the remainder of the K era, or for an even more enduring period. I voted "9," only because history strongly indicates that the far-future is uncertain. However, in the near-term -- for example, this season -- I would have opted for a "10."