CDu
01-31-2011, 11:24 AM
So we're entering February, and we're starting to get some perspective on these teams in conference. The short answer, is that there are still tons of questions. And of course one also needs to consider how teams in other conferences do (i.e., decisions aren't made in a bubble). With the conference being down, 9-7 in conference isn't likely to be enough without some strong OOC wins (which only two teams really have).
But here's an initial pass at the teams with a shot:
All but certainly in:
Duke - 19-2, 6-1, RPI #13, Pom #4, Sagarin #6. Technically, we could lose out and fail to make it. That's obviously REALLY unlikely. I just don't like counting chickens before they hatch. A couple of more wins and it's a lead-pipe lock. We'll probably change this to a lock next Monday.
Strong probability of getting in:
UNC - 15-5, 5-1, RPI #15, Pom #21, Sagarin #22. A big OOC win over UK and already 5 conference wins. They've got a tough back of the schedule (probably thehttp://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/newthread.php?do=newthread&f=2 toughest in the ACC), so there's still room to plummet. And the GT loss hurts. But given what they've done so far, I think 4-5 more ACC wins (including the tourney) probably gets it done. They are the only team aside from us that has distinguished themselves in each of the categories across the board.
Solid/Reasonable chance: These teams all have decent resumes, but need to finish strong. Any of them could make it, any of them could miss.
FSU - 15-6, 5-2, Pom #41, RPI #49, Sagarin #43. They've got the big win over us and the AWFUL loss at Auburn. They also have 3 should-be-gimmies remaining (2 vs Wake and home vs UVa). They need to win those. At least splitting with UNC along with the gimmies is probably enough along with the Duke win.
Clemson - 15-6, 4-3, RPI #69, Pom #29, Sagarin #45. They have a somewhat friendly remaining ACC schedule (though a lot of road games). The losses to ODU, Michigan, and USC hurt. They probably need to win 2-3 of their remaining road games and beat UNC and VT at home to field good about their chances. Very doable, but they'll need to show some success on the road.
Maryland - 14-7, 4-3, RPI #67, Pom #13, Sagarin #35. Maryland is such an interesting case. The different systems rate them very differently. They're better than their RPI would suggest, and perhaps not quite as good as Pomeroy would suggest. I think the Sagarin rating is closer to accurate. Wins over Clemson and Penn State may end up looking very nice. They've got several tough ones to go (Duke, @VT, FSU, @UNC) and some road-bump games (@BC, @Miami). They will likely need to win 1-2 of those tough ones and hold serve the rest of the way to feel good about themselves.
Va Tech - 14-6, 4-3, RPI #66, Pom #31, Sagarin #42. They've got a bunch of winnable games left (done with FSU, done with UNC), but they're capable of slipping against anyone. Two games with BC, a trip to Clemson, and home games against Maryland and Duke will be big for them.
BC: 14-7, 4-3, RPI #37, Pom #67, Sagarin #51. BC is sort of the inverse of Maryland here. The RPI likes them, Pomeroy doesn't. Like VT, they have a lot of winnable games left but they have definitely shown the capability to slip up. The loss to Harvard looks less bad (though still not good), but the loss to Yale is terrible. If they're on the bubble, that could get them the boot. So they likely have to do a little more to shake that impression.
Backs completely against the wall (basically out): Realistically, these teams are toast. They've either lost too many in conference (NCSU, Miami) or too many out of conference (GT). They each have some talent to get hot, but just not enough depth, experience, or coaching to make it happen. What is more likely to happen is that these teams will be the thorn in the side of one of the 4 teams in the solid/reasonable chance category.
NC State, Miami, GT.
Out (barring the ACC tourney win): Nothing can save these teams but the tourney, and they aren't winning the tourney either.
UVa, Wake.
But here's an initial pass at the teams with a shot:
All but certainly in:
Duke - 19-2, 6-1, RPI #13, Pom #4, Sagarin #6. Technically, we could lose out and fail to make it. That's obviously REALLY unlikely. I just don't like counting chickens before they hatch. A couple of more wins and it's a lead-pipe lock. We'll probably change this to a lock next Monday.
Strong probability of getting in:
UNC - 15-5, 5-1, RPI #15, Pom #21, Sagarin #22. A big OOC win over UK and already 5 conference wins. They've got a tough back of the schedule (probably thehttp://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/newthread.php?do=newthread&f=2 toughest in the ACC), so there's still room to plummet. And the GT loss hurts. But given what they've done so far, I think 4-5 more ACC wins (including the tourney) probably gets it done. They are the only team aside from us that has distinguished themselves in each of the categories across the board.
Solid/Reasonable chance: These teams all have decent resumes, but need to finish strong. Any of them could make it, any of them could miss.
FSU - 15-6, 5-2, Pom #41, RPI #49, Sagarin #43. They've got the big win over us and the AWFUL loss at Auburn. They also have 3 should-be-gimmies remaining (2 vs Wake and home vs UVa). They need to win those. At least splitting with UNC along with the gimmies is probably enough along with the Duke win.
Clemson - 15-6, 4-3, RPI #69, Pom #29, Sagarin #45. They have a somewhat friendly remaining ACC schedule (though a lot of road games). The losses to ODU, Michigan, and USC hurt. They probably need to win 2-3 of their remaining road games and beat UNC and VT at home to field good about their chances. Very doable, but they'll need to show some success on the road.
Maryland - 14-7, 4-3, RPI #67, Pom #13, Sagarin #35. Maryland is such an interesting case. The different systems rate them very differently. They're better than their RPI would suggest, and perhaps not quite as good as Pomeroy would suggest. I think the Sagarin rating is closer to accurate. Wins over Clemson and Penn State may end up looking very nice. They've got several tough ones to go (Duke, @VT, FSU, @UNC) and some road-bump games (@BC, @Miami). They will likely need to win 1-2 of those tough ones and hold serve the rest of the way to feel good about themselves.
Va Tech - 14-6, 4-3, RPI #66, Pom #31, Sagarin #42. They've got a bunch of winnable games left (done with FSU, done with UNC), but they're capable of slipping against anyone. Two games with BC, a trip to Clemson, and home games against Maryland and Duke will be big for them.
BC: 14-7, 4-3, RPI #37, Pom #67, Sagarin #51. BC is sort of the inverse of Maryland here. The RPI likes them, Pomeroy doesn't. Like VT, they have a lot of winnable games left but they have definitely shown the capability to slip up. The loss to Harvard looks less bad (though still not good), but the loss to Yale is terrible. If they're on the bubble, that could get them the boot. So they likely have to do a little more to shake that impression.
Backs completely against the wall (basically out): Realistically, these teams are toast. They've either lost too many in conference (NCSU, Miami) or too many out of conference (GT). They each have some talent to get hot, but just not enough depth, experience, or coaching to make it happen. What is more likely to happen is that these teams will be the thorn in the side of one of the 4 teams in the solid/reasonable chance category.
NC State, Miami, GT.
Out (barring the ACC tourney win): Nothing can save these teams but the tourney, and they aren't winning the tourney either.
UVa, Wake.