This Week in the ACC: 1/31-2/6

[pfrduke]

In an ACC that has been pretty tightly packed so far this season (4 teams at 4-3, 7 teams with 3-5 wins), this week could give some teams a chance to rise above the pack. UNC and Maryland, in particular, have a chance for quality wins that would go a long way toward setting them apart from the other contenders.

Monday is dark.

Tuesday sends two Tobacco Road teams to opposite corners of the conference, as UNC heads north to visit Boston College and Wake goes south to tussle with Florida State. UNC has road wins at Miami and Virginia (and a blowout road loss to Georgia Tech); this trip to BC will be a good test for their defense. As for Wake, if they can merely keep it respectable, that will be an accomplishment. FSU can't get caught looking ahead to their own matchup against UNC this weekend.

[67]Boston College hosts [21]North Carolina
[44]Wake Forest hosts [256]Wake Forest

Wednesday gives us the second installment of Duke-Maryland just 8 games into the conference season. The Terps are looking to carry some momentum from three consecutive conference wins into an upset (although Pomeroy calls this as a 51/49 game, with Duke the ever-so-slight favorite) of the top team in the ACC. For Duke, it will be good just to see a basketball court again, even if one in a decidedly hostile environment. For what it's worth (and probably not much), last year's Devils followed an embarrassing loss to NC State by going into Clemson and avenging a loss from the season before; let's hope we can do the same to Maryland this year. Two other ACC contests on Wednesday, as the Hokies travel to Raleigh and the Tigers travel to Charlottesville. I'll repeat what I said about the VT at GT game last week, as it applies to both road teams: these are the games that bubble teams need to win to keep their tournament stock high.

[13]Maryland hosts [4]Duke
[100]NC State hosts [31]Virginia Tech
[135]Virginia hosts [29]Clemson

Thursday sends Georgia Tech, a bit of a surprise at 3-4 in the conference, on the road at Miami, a big disappointment at 1-6, although many of their losses have been of the close, heart-breaker variety.

[68]Miami hosts [76]Georgia Tech

Friday is dark.

Saturday has almost a full slate, with 10 of the 12 teams matching up. The Devils get their second look at NC State (9 games into the season, and already two rematches before the Devils have seen 4 other teams even once - I miss the round robin), this time in Cameron (and if the young Pack were that rattled by the Dean Dome crowd this weekend....). Virginia Tech travels to Boston College in a game that will likely be critical for both teams (particularly if either are coming off of a loss). Clemson hopes to follow Maryland's lead in being able to pick up a win in Atlanta - at the very least, they must be licking their chops at getting to face a Tech team against whom they had an .833 efg% earlier this season. Maryland gets a home game against Wake, and Virginia and Miami square off in a game that has essentially no meaningful ramifications - both are out of the conference race, neither is making it into the dance.

[4]Duke hosts [100]NC State
[76]Georgia Tech hosts [29]Clemson
[67]Boston College hosts [31]Virginia Tech
[13]Maryland hosts [256]Wake Forest
[68]Miami hosts [135]Virginia

Sunday has a pre-Super Bowl matchup that is the marquee game of the weekend. There are a lot of ifs in the following scenario, but if Maryland beats Duke and if UNC beats BC (and if FSU beats Wake, but that almost seems like a foregone conclusion), then the winner of the UNC-FSU matchup would stand in first place, either alone (UNC) or tied, but with the tie-breaking win (FSU). At the very least, this is likely going to be a battle for second place, as the winner would be joining Duke as the only teams with fewer than 3 conference losses. This game pits two of the conference's top defenses against each other, so we should see a tight, low-scoring affair.

[21]North Carolina hosts [44]Florida State

[gw67]

Nice write-up. BC has two tough home games and will be lucky to win one. IMO. The UNC - FSU game should be fun to watch but I don't see the Noles winning on the road. Duke - Maryland is, well, Duke - Maryland. I expect Coach K to have Duke ready and Maryland always gets up for the Devils. In order to stay close, the Terps perimeter players have to play like they did against Virginia.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

If I may take a slightly longer view of what's coming up for a couple of teams:

-- UNC: The schedule has been very much in their favor so far, but they are starting a very challenging four-game stretch: at Boston College; FSU at home; at Duke; at Clemson.

If the Heels expect to contend for the regular season title, they probably need to win 3 of the 4 ... if they split, they're still in shape to finish as the ACC's No. 2 team (especially if one of the two is a home win over FSU).

-- Miami: The last four Miami games (1 win and 3 losses) have been decided by a total of 11 points. But except for a game at State, the 'Canes have basically played against the ACC's best. The schedule gives them a chance to get healthy with upcoming home games against Georgia Tech (which has been horrible on the road), Virginia and at Wake Forest.

They should be riding a three-game winning streak when Duke visits Miami on Feb. 13 -- they should be 15-9, 4-6 at that point ... they would almost certainly see the Duke game as a way to get back in the at-large debate ... and they have almost always played Duke tough at home.

-- Maryland has won three straight to get to 14-7, 4-3 ... they follow the Duke game with home games against Wake Forest and Longwood -- two sure wins.

Obviously, the Duke game means everything to the Terps. It's the kind of win that either puts them in the NCAA field or leaves them on the outside looking in. With a win, they get to 17-7, 6-3 -- although they finish with a tough stretch run (games at BC, at VPI, at UNC and at Miami). If they are just 16-8, 5-4, I don't see them surviving that.

[sagegrouse]

Against Wake at home, FSU is shooting a mere 33% but has an 11-point lead near the end of 1H on 9 Wake TOs and equally poor Wake shooting.

sagegrouse

[pfrduke]

Against Wake at home, FSU is shooting a mere 33% but has an 11-point lead near the end of 1H on 9 Wake TOs and equally poor Wake shooting.

sagegrouse

Not surprisingly, Wake's very bad offense is struggling against FSU's very good defense, scoring barely a point per minute. If they reach 50, they should consider it a moral victory.

[jipops]

Watching UNC-BC. It seems clear that UNC is the best team in the ACC right now. It may not even be all that close.

[DukieTiger]

Amazing how you look when you hit shots, no?

We'll see how good they look when they play FSU, @Duke, @Clemson in the next week.

[dukelifer]

Watching UNC-BC. It seems clear that UNC is the best team in the ACC right now. It may not even be all that close.

Well I will give you they are better than many have said- but not heads and shoulders above everyone. They are definitely a top 20 team.

[kong123]

i tell you, as a UNC fan, it feels unbelievable to watch this team shoot it well. it has been such a struggle at times, and they are certainly not the best, most consistent team in the ACC right now, but they are showing signs of being the team everyone thought they could be. Like someone said up above, it always looks better when the ball goes in to the basket.

[Vincetaylor]

Watching UNC-BC. It seems clear that UNC is the best team in the ACC right now. It may not even be all that close.

Totally agree. If we lose tomorrow, which is 50/50 in my opinion, they will be in the driver's seat for the regular season title. We will get destroyed by them on the interior on both sides of the court when we play them next week.

[jipops]

i tell you, as a UNC fan, it feels unbelievable to watch this team shoot it well. it has been such a struggle at times, and they are certainly not the best, most consistent team in the ACC right now, but they are showing signs of being the team everyone thought they could be. Like someone said up above, it always looks better when the ball goes in to the basket.

Even more impressive than the shooting has been the defense. Guys are shutting down passing lanes and rotating over. The UNC defense is almost as impressive as Maryland's.

[ncexnyc]

Totally agree. If we lose tomorrow, which is 50/50 in my opinion, they will be in the driver's seat for the regular season title. We will get destroyed by them on the interior on both sides of the court when we play them next week.
OMG, man the life boats, women and children first.
Can we at least wait until the game is over before annoiting them ACC champs.

[loran16]

Watching UNC-BC. It seems clear that UNC is the best team in the ACC right now. It may not even be all that close.

Ummm no? Prior to this game they were the fifth most efficient team in conference, and not even close to #1. This game may put them at #2, but no more.

Do remember, they've looked best against a terrible NC State team and a BC Team without any defense (UNC has 6 turnovers so far. Ridiculous for anyone).

Barnes looks good, sure, but really what's happened is they've had great D and run into a bunch of weak teams lately.

This game is impressive since it's on the road. But that's all. Nothing more.

[dukelifer]

i tell you, as a UNC fan, it feels unbelievable to watch this team shoot it well. it has been such a struggle at times, and they are certainly not the best, most consistent team in the ACC right now, but they are showing signs of being the team everyone thought they could be. Like someone said up above, it always looks better when the ball goes in to the basket.

A few more games like this and Barnes is one and done again - and even more likely if he leads them deep in the tourney

[kong123]

i think with the talent we currently have, Reggie Bullock, and the talent we have coming in, PJ Hairston, we will be fine if we lose HB. We cannot afford to lose Zeller or Henson.

[jipops]

i think with the talent we currently have, Reggie Bullock, and the talent we have coming in, PJ Hairston, we will be fine if we lose HB. We cannot afford to lose Zeller or Henson.

The amount of talent the heels can put on the floor THIS year is pretty ridiculous. Knox would start on most if not all other ACC teams. Everyone is offensively skilled. Now that roles have been more clearly defined the heels are just clicking and imposing the talent advantage they have already had. The one thing BC has done very little of is pressure the guards and expose some of the weakness that UNC still has. But with Marshall now assuming most of the duties in running the offense, this seems like less of a problem than it has been for the heels.

[Vincetaylor]

OMG, man the life boats, women and children first.
Can we at least wait until the game is over before annoiting them ACC champs.

Not sure why you're freaking out. I stated the obvious. If we lose to Md, UNC will be in first and get to play us next week without Kyrie. I stand by what I said.

[ncexnyc]

Not sure why you're freaking out. I stated the obvious. If we lose to Md, UNC will be in first and get to play us next week without Kyrie. I stand by what I said.

Freaking out? Hardly not. It's called sarcasm. I've been very supportive of UNC and Mr. Barnes especially, but there is still a lot of ball to be played before we say they've surpassed us. Tonight's win is indeed very impressive, but as others have pointed out something is wrong with BC. Reggie was the 2nd leading scorer in the ACC just a few short games ago and suddenly he's lucky if he can hit the backboard. I too want to see what they can do against FSU and Clemson before I make any declarations that they've surpassed us.

[gw67]

I've considered BC to be a pretender for a while. The got an early season win over Maryland when the Terps stopped making foul shots toward the end of the game as well as early season wins over GT, UVA and NCSU. This led some to think that they were a very good team. Since then,Jackson seems to have hit a wall and even Trapani and a bunch of three-point goals could not get them within 30 points of the Heels last night. As a result, BC continues to drift toward the middle of the league standings. They still have three difficult road games and two tough home games. They are thin, don't rebound well and rely on a three-point game to offset their lack of inside play. At best I see a 9-7 record and a slight chance at making the NCAAT.

gw67

[pfrduke]

NCSU misses Ryan Harrow, but even he wouldn't be able to help them box out - Virginia Tech has rebounded 14 of their 20 misses so far - yikes.

[Bob Green]

In leading NC State by 13 at halftime, in Raleigh, Virginia Tech is pounding another nail in Sidney Lowe's coffin. The big question is who can they entice to take Lowe's place?

[jipops]

In leading NC State by 13 at halftime, in Raleigh, Virginia Tech is pounding another nail in Sidney Lowe's coffin. The big question is who can they entice to take Lowe's place?

Monte Towe?

[pfrduke]

Meanwhile, Clemson has managed a grand total of 13 first half points in Charlottesville, and trails by 16 at the break. Can anyone in this conference (besides, apparently, UNC) win on the road??

[Olympic Fan]

Meanwhile, Clemson has managed a grand total of 13 first half points in Charlottesville, and trails by 16 at the break. Can anyone in this conference (besides, apparently, UNC) win on the road??

After tonight, Duke, Maryland and UNC are all 3-1 on the road.

Virginia Tech is 2-2 on the road. FSU, Virginia and BC each have one road win.

NC State, Miami and Clemson are all 0-4 on the road. Georgia Tech is 0-3.

The really strange one is Maryland -- the Terps are 3-1 on the road and 1-3 at home!

Overall, Duke just regained a half-game lead on UNC in the standings:

Duke 7-1
UNC 6-1
FSU 6-2
Va Tech 5-3

All are now in line for a first-round ACC Tournament bye.

Clemson, BC and Maryland are all 4-4 ... Georgia Tech (3-4) could join them by beating Miami Thursday night -- but it's on the road and the Jackets are winless outside Atlanta.

[sagegrouse]

After tonight, Duke, Maryland and UNC are all 3-1 on the road.

Virginia Tech is 2-2 on the road. FSU, Virginia and BC each have one road win.

NC State, Miami and Clemson are all 0-4 on the road. Georgia Tech is 0-3.

The really strange one is Maryland -- the Terps are 3-1 on the road and 1-3 at home!

Overall, Duke just regained a half-game lead on UNC in the standings:

Duke 7-1
UNC 6-1
FSU 6-2
Va Tech 5-3

All are now in line for a first-round ACC Tournament bye.

Clemson, BC and Maryland are all 4-4 ... Georgia Tech (3-4) could join them by beating Miami Thursday night -- but it's on the road and the Jackets are winless outside Atlanta.

Home teams are winning 71% of the ACC games; therefore, standings are skewed because of differences in home and away ratios. One way to normalize for the home-court bias is to look at ROAD WINS MINUS HOME LOSSES. Maryland, e.g., is at ZERO because, while the Terps have three road wins, they also have three home losses. Clemson also has ZERO because, so far, the Tigers can't lose at home nor win on the road.

Here are the standings in the road win/home loss index:



Duke 3
UNC 3
FSU 1
VT 1
BC 0
Clem 0
Md 0
GT -1
UVa -1
Mia -2
NCS -2
WF -2


sagegrouse

[gw67]

The conference season is or will be at the mid-point this weekend. Based on the current standings and a quick look at their schedules, it appears that Duke, UNC, FSU and VT are close to wrapping up the four byes in the ACCT and possibly NCAAT bids. Based on their remaining schedules, it doesn't appear to me that any of the current teams at 4-4 (Clemson, BC and Md) will win the 5-6 games necessary to challenge VT for 4th place and unless one of them gets hot in the ACCT, I suspect that the league will get four teams in the NCAAT.

gw67

[loran16]

The conference season is or will be at the mid-point this weekend. Based on the current standings and a quick look at their schedules, it appears that Duke, UNC, FSU and VT are close to wrapping up the four byes in the ACCT and possibly NCAAT bids. Based on their remaining schedules, it doesn't appear to me that any of the current teams at 4-4 (Clemson, BC and Md) will win the 5-6 games necessary to challenge VT for 4th place and unless one of them gets hot in the ACCT, I suspect that the league will get four teams in the NCAAT.

gw67

Well, Duke, UNC, and VT are the top 3 most efficient teams in conference, with FSU at #5 (Clemson's at 4). Clemson could challenge the big 3 right now...but they have to learn to play on the road.

[JasonEvans]

I really thought Clemson was ready to make a run at the upper tier. They were 4-3, but had a pair of very winnable road games at Virginia and at Ga Tech. A pair of road victories and they would get to 6-3. That would put them in the conversation for 2nd place and set them up nicely to get an NCAA bid.

Well, they blew the easier half of that road double last night at Virginia. Sigh.

I still think they have a chance to be a player in the conference race and challenge for one of those opening day byes. Look at their road schedule. It is full of winnable games. They've got Ga Tech, NC St, Miami, and Duke. Pom makes them a favorite in 3 of those games (you can guess the game in which they are a longshot). If they just win two of those contests, they just have to hold serve at home to get to 10-6.

The home schedule consists of BC, UNC, Wake, and Va Tech. The Va Tech game is the last one of the season and it very well may be two teams playing for that opening round bye.

I am not as much of a Clemson believer as I was 24 hours ago... but I still think they can do it and get to 10-6.

--Jason "keep an eye on them... I dunno why, but I have a feeling about the Tigers this year" Evans

[NSDukeFan]

The conference season is or will be at the mid-point this weekend. Based on the current standings and a quick look at their schedules, it appears that Duke, UNC, FSU and VT are close to wrapping up the four byes in the ACCT and possibly NCAAT bids. Based on their remaining schedules, it doesn't appear to me that any of the current teams at 4-4 (Clemson, BC and Md) will win the 5-6 games necessary to challenge VT for 4th place and unless one of them gets hot in the ACCT, I suspect that the league will get four teams in the NCAAT.

gw67

I think I agree with you that the ACC may only get 4 teams in the NCAAT this year, as the bottom teams (Wake, UVa, GTech, Miami?, NCSU?) have beaten or will likely beat the other teams enough times to prevent many teams from having impressive records. I wonder if VT would get in the tournament at 10-6 after their poor pre-conference results.

[Bob Green]

In this Weekend Preview at the ACC Sports Journal, Andrew Skwara predicts victory for all the home teams:

http://www.accsports.com/teams/boston-college/201102049772/acc-weekend-preview-feb-4.php

I'm going to go out on a limb and state at least one road team will come away with a victory. Obviously, an FSU win at Chapel Hill is desirable as we would then occupy 1st Place in the conference all by ourselves. However, I still question the Seminoles ability to score enough points to win. Of course, I posted the same thing before our trip to Tallahassee and was proven wrong. Here's to hoping I'm wrong again.

My second choice for a road victory is Virginia Tech. Boston College is collapsing with Reggie Jackson in a funk.

[loran16]

In this Weekend Preview at the ACC Sports Journal, Andrew Skwara predicts victory for all the home teams:

http://www.accsports.com/teams/boston-college/201102049772/acc-weekend-preview-feb-4.php

I'm going to go out on a limb and state at least one road team will come away with a victory. Obviously, an FSU win at Chapel Hill is desirable as we would then occupy 1st Place in the conference all by ourselves. However, I still question the Seminoles ability to score enough points to win. Of course, I posted the same thing before our trip to Tallahassee and was proven wrong. Here's to hoping I'm wrong again.

My second choice for a road victory is Virginia Tech. Boston College is collapsing with Reggie Jackson in a funk.

I'm with VT. FSU's offense has been actually okay at home. On the road, not so much. They won't have enough firepower to handle Carolina's D, so the better O will win.

[devildeac]

Clumpson repeating their "performance" at uva, down 19-8 at GT with 9 minutes to go in the 1st half. Are you kidding me? 8 points in 11+ minutes? Ugly.

[loran16]

Clumpson repeating their "performance" at uva, down 19-8 at GT with 9 minutes to go in the 1st half. Are you kidding me? 8 points in 11+ minutes? Ugly.

You jinxed GT...Clemson up 8 at half. Clemson needs this win.

[devildeac]

You jinxed GT...Clemson up 8 at half. Clemson needs this win.

I don't have a dog in the fight but quite a turnaround on the road with clumpson outscoring GT, 25-6 in the last 8:50 of the 1st half. Why couldn't they do that at the dump on the hump?:mad:

[Dukeface88]

I don't have a dog in the fight but quite a turnaround on the road with clumpson outscoring GT, 25-6 in the last 8:50 of the 1st half. Why couldn't they do that at the dump on the hump?:mad:

Because they still haven't returned the ceremonial headmask to the ancient Indian burial ground.

[sagegrouse]

Results to date:


A rare road win for an ACC team, as Clemson came back to beat Georgia Tech by nine.

Miami outlasted UVA in OT.

BC edged VT.

Maryland handled Wake easily by 20.


So, Bob Green was right in forercasting a road win, but there is room for one more tomorrow.

BTW the home teams are 36-15 in the ACC this year.

sagegrouse

[Klemnop]

I don't have a dog in the fight but quite a turnaround on the road with clumpson outscoring GT, 25-6 in the last 8:50 of the 1st half. Why couldn't they do that at the dump on the hump?:mad:

It's Clemson. C-L-E-M-S-O-N. If you have any doubt then you've never been to an event with a significant Clemson cheering section....because we spell it out about 150/hour.

:p

[DukieTiger]

It's Clemson. C-L-E-M-S-O-N. If you have any doubt then you've never been to an event with a significant Clemson cheering section....because we spell it out about 150/hour.

:p

Wooohoooo, woohoo hoohoo! :)

[loran16]

It's Clemson. C-L-E-M-S-O-N. If you have any doubt then you've never been to an event with a significant Clemson cheering section....because we spell it out about 150/hour.

:p

No, you spell it C-L-E-M-S-O-*Pause*-*Pause*-*Pause*-*Pause*-N, as if you can't remember the last of the letters in your school name.

:-P

[davekay1971]

It's Clemson. C-L-E-M-S-O-N. If you have any doubt then you've never been to an event with a significant Clemson cheering section....because we spell it out about 150/hour.

:p

Everybody who went to Duke has been to an event with a significant Clemson cheering section: a Duke-Clemson game at Wally Wade.

Oh wait, never mind, that wouldn't apply to everybody who's been to Duke, since most Dukies couldn't find Wally Wade on a Saturday with a map, a tour guide, a compass that points only to Dave Cutcliff's current location, and a dog trained to track down footballs.

OK, it's clearly time for this grumpy old man to get my glass of warm milk, my metamucil, and go to bed. Good win against State, and let's kick some Kerline butt on Wednesday!

[diveonthefloor]

Does anyone know of a functional URL for the UNC radio broadcast?