loran16
01-31-2011, 10:38 AM
Good News! St. Johns ISN'T an ACC Team, so it won't be considered in these rankings! And nor will Duke's loss. Now that's awesome. Anyhow, we have over a third of the season for each team done, so lets take a look at the rankings.
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Below are the current efficiency numbers for each ACC team in conference play thus far. These numbers used to be kept track of publicly by basketball prospectus' John Gasaway, but he's currently putting them behind the site's new pay-wall, so I'll be posting them here all season.
These numbers go beyond win-loss record to, over time, show who truly is the best, and then second best team in the ACC team, and so forth. They're better at doing so than win-loss records, as they truly show which teams are actually beating up on opponents and which are lucky to skate by. Early on of course, they're skewed by outliers (games against Wake Forest), but they're still quite interesting.
The relevant numbers are as follows:
Tempo: Possessions per Game (A measure of how up-pace a team plays.)
Offensive Efficiency: Amount of points scored by a team's offense per possession.
Defensive Efficiency: Amount of points allowed by a team's defense per possession.
Efficiency Margin: The amount a team will outscore it's opponent per 1-possession-each (basically O Efficiency minus D Efficiency)
For ease of reading, I've added a final column, which shows how the Efficiency Margin of each team translates into that team's average margin of victory (or defeat) in an average ACC game (66 Possessions). This is just for display purposes....a team like Duke which plays faster than that will win by more, while a team like UVA which plays slower will win by less. Another week, and 2 games for everyone have passed except for UNC, so time for another look at the efficiency rankings.
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_jpHBaQhAbHI/TUbPwsbdmjI/AAAAAAAAALg/prbxKFe26Ig/s1600/ACC%2BStats%2BWeek%2B4-Start.png
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Thoughts:
1. Duke has achieved separation at the top: Duke is #2 on offense, and #3 on Defense in ACC Play thus far, and thus the team is a clear #1. Duke is in fact the only team in the ACC to be top 4 (top 1/3 of the conference) in both O and D....though VT is #5 in both. Still, despite the St. John's loss, we need to remember that IN CONFERENCE, Duke has looked a clear step above so far.
2. Clemson's O is still really good. In the first week of this, Clemson was tied for the top spot in conference. Two weeks later, they return to near the top thanks to a great win over FSU at home, fueled by good offense and FSU's lack of offense. Of course, caution needs to be said here: Clemson has won every game at home, but LOST EVERY GAME ON THE ROAD IN ACC PLAY SO FAR. Sooo, yeah, when teams are facing Clemson not at Littlejon, they're probably in good shape.
3. There are only 4 "complete teams" at the moment, but UNC is getting close. Right now, Duke, VT, GT, and Maryland are the only teams above reasonable efficiency levels (1.0) for both offense and defense, though UNC is close, and GT is barely above that level for both O and D. Every other team is clearly flawed in one area or another.
4. UNC begins to rise, thanks to defense! If you've kept track of pomeroy this shouldn't surprise you, but well here it's made clear...UNC has an average O in conference, if that. But their D is terrific and is SECOND BEST in the ACC! Touche, Roy. Touche.
5. NC State falls to near UVA levels thanks to HORRIBLE DEFENSE: State's offense is still above average...but it's defense is atrocious, the 3rd worst in the ACC, behind Wake and BC (who has a much better O). Seeing this, one wonders if State will be able to beat Wake AT Wake, given Wake's recent win over UVA in Winston Salem. Regardless, they're clearly in the bottom of the ACC and a change is needed.
6. Wake Improved! No, Seriously! I've been hammering how bad Wake is in each of these posts, but figured since they improved this week by .07 in efficiency margin due to their win over UVA, I'd stop and give them props. Good Job Guys. Now lets see if you can build on it.
------------------------------------------------------------
Below are the current efficiency numbers for each ACC team in conference play thus far. These numbers used to be kept track of publicly by basketball prospectus' John Gasaway, but he's currently putting them behind the site's new pay-wall, so I'll be posting them here all season.
These numbers go beyond win-loss record to, over time, show who truly is the best, and then second best team in the ACC team, and so forth. They're better at doing so than win-loss records, as they truly show which teams are actually beating up on opponents and which are lucky to skate by. Early on of course, they're skewed by outliers (games against Wake Forest), but they're still quite interesting.
The relevant numbers are as follows:
Tempo: Possessions per Game (A measure of how up-pace a team plays.)
Offensive Efficiency: Amount of points scored by a team's offense per possession.
Defensive Efficiency: Amount of points allowed by a team's defense per possession.
Efficiency Margin: The amount a team will outscore it's opponent per 1-possession-each (basically O Efficiency minus D Efficiency)
For ease of reading, I've added a final column, which shows how the Efficiency Margin of each team translates into that team's average margin of victory (or defeat) in an average ACC game (66 Possessions). This is just for display purposes....a team like Duke which plays faster than that will win by more, while a team like UVA which plays slower will win by less. Another week, and 2 games for everyone have passed except for UNC, so time for another look at the efficiency rankings.
------------------------------------------------------------
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_jpHBaQhAbHI/TUbPwsbdmjI/AAAAAAAAALg/prbxKFe26Ig/s1600/ACC%2BStats%2BWeek%2B4-Start.png
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Thoughts:
1. Duke has achieved separation at the top: Duke is #2 on offense, and #3 on Defense in ACC Play thus far, and thus the team is a clear #1. Duke is in fact the only team in the ACC to be top 4 (top 1/3 of the conference) in both O and D....though VT is #5 in both. Still, despite the St. John's loss, we need to remember that IN CONFERENCE, Duke has looked a clear step above so far.
2. Clemson's O is still really good. In the first week of this, Clemson was tied for the top spot in conference. Two weeks later, they return to near the top thanks to a great win over FSU at home, fueled by good offense and FSU's lack of offense. Of course, caution needs to be said here: Clemson has won every game at home, but LOST EVERY GAME ON THE ROAD IN ACC PLAY SO FAR. Sooo, yeah, when teams are facing Clemson not at Littlejon, they're probably in good shape.
3. There are only 4 "complete teams" at the moment, but UNC is getting close. Right now, Duke, VT, GT, and Maryland are the only teams above reasonable efficiency levels (1.0) for both offense and defense, though UNC is close, and GT is barely above that level for both O and D. Every other team is clearly flawed in one area or another.
4. UNC begins to rise, thanks to defense! If you've kept track of pomeroy this shouldn't surprise you, but well here it's made clear...UNC has an average O in conference, if that. But their D is terrific and is SECOND BEST in the ACC! Touche, Roy. Touche.
5. NC State falls to near UVA levels thanks to HORRIBLE DEFENSE: State's offense is still above average...but it's defense is atrocious, the 3rd worst in the ACC, behind Wake and BC (who has a much better O). Seeing this, one wonders if State will be able to beat Wake AT Wake, given Wake's recent win over UVA in Winston Salem. Regardless, they're clearly in the bottom of the ACC and a change is needed.
6. Wake Improved! No, Seriously! I've been hammering how bad Wake is in each of these posts, but figured since they improved this week by .07 in efficiency margin due to their win over UVA, I'd stop and give them props. Good Job Guys. Now lets see if you can build on it.