loran16
01-30-2011, 06:07 PM
Last Year's Duke Team had four stars (no offense to Lance Thomas) that carried it to victory:
Jon Scheyer
Nolan Smith
Kyle Singler
and
Brian Zoubek.
As it's well known by now, Zoubek broke out against Maryland and never looked back. He was the best offensive rebounder in the nation and was the key reason why Duke, a poor shooting team (believe it or not), had the most efficient offense in the country.
The question has been asked before on this board, but with a loss today that was basically this year's version of the NC State loss (or so we hope), it bears asking once more. Which player will break out?
Now to ask this question, lets assume that Smith & Singler, in addition to various role playing guards and Kelly, are able to make up for the lack of Jon Scheyer (this is debatable, but just run with it). So we currently have what amounts to 3 players, and we lack the fourth.
Mind you, Brian Zoubek last year showed flashes pre-Maryland: In the season before, Zoubek had actually had a 16.4% Offensive Rebound Rate, which would've been good enough for top ten in the country had he qualified, and he had a rate above 20% (Top 2 in the country if he had qualified) before the Maryland game. However, Brian was unable to convert on some of those boards (bad shots, wasn't kicking out) or stay on the Court.
In other words, Brian's breakout was the result of an improvement that had ALREADY OCCURRED, but simply could not be seen so obviously until he figured it out. So we should probably look for a similar player here.
Note, we're not just looking at boards here, steals, blocks, some other dimension that someone could add to this team to put this team over the top, is what we're looking for.
The Candidates:
Ryan Kelly- Kelly seems like the obvious choice. Clearly an improvement for Kelly has already occurred...he's playing smart basketball and has clearly become a major factor on this team. Moreover, he's in the top 100 players according to Pomeroy in block% (showing great defense) and offensive efficiency (showing his great shooting). Clearly there's improvement that's already there, and Ryan helps by not fouling that often, with a foul rate of less than 5 per 40 minutes (which is superb for a big man).
On the other hand, while Ryan's offensive performance is often due to his ability to create mismatches simply due to being a 6'11" player out on the wing, he seems to lack a clear ability to make his own shot. Teams can handle him by making sure he doesn't get wide open, since otherwise, he'll be little threat with the ball. This clearly limits his offensive ability.
Possibility for Break-Out: Ryan's only a sophomore and he may have broken out as far as he can already...unlike Zoubek, fouls and floor time are not limiting him, and teams are starting to defend him, slowing him down somewhat. But Ryan could improve on defense:
First: Improving his ability to block shots. Ryan is no John Henson (ugh, but a 12% block rate is ridiculous) but Shelden Williams is a potential role model at rejections....Ryan currently blocks 7.1% of shots, while Shelden blocked 9.18 and 9.48% of shots his last two years...Meanwhile, Ryan DOESN'T commit too many fouls, and unlike Shelden, we actually can afford to give him some time on the bench if he's in foul trouble. So Ryan could in fact try and be more aggressive on D at blocking shots, building on his existing great blocking ability.
Second: Improving his defensive rebounding: Ryan's probably never gonna be a great offensive rebounder...he plays too far away from the basket. But this isn't the case on defense, yet Ryan is only third on the team (15.0%) in Defensive Rebounding %. This is not a great rate...you'd like to see that number at 20 or over. Once again, Ryan could go more aggressive after these boards, risking fouls, because he's not fouling that frequently.
Mason Plumlee:
Like Ryan, Mason Plumlee sort-of fits the profile because he has had some signs of a break-out already: Mason is rebounding 26.3% of opponent's misses (Defensive Rebounding Rate), which is the 23rd best rate in the country. He's also blocking shots at a top 100 rate of 6.8%, right behind Ryan Kelly. Meanwhile, he's doing both these things with an amazing ability to avoid picking up fouls - he's picking up just 3.9 fouls per 40 minutes. And of course, he's apparently super athletic, which Doug Gottlieb thinks makes him our best player.
Of course, Mason has problems. His poor FT shooting has resulted in him being an INEFFICIENT player on offense, as we can see by his offensive rating being under 100, which is pretty poor (the teams' averaging less than a point when he has a role in the possession). He's also not been a great offensive rebounder, netting only 11.5% of our own misses, which is less than his brother. And of course, he's looked significantly worse on O since Kyrie went down, as he seems to have suffered the most from the loss of an elite passer.
Possibility of Break-Out: Mason's really been a terrific defensive player at times this year, and his foul rate is terrific....while it's unrealistic to expect him to improve defensive rebounding, he could also, like Ryan, afford to be more aggressive and try to block more shots.
However, his best chance to break-out would be on offense....Mason fouls so infrequently for a big man that you'd hope that he could improve his offensive rebounding rate...not to Zoubek-like levels, but to lets say 15%, which would put him around Zou's rate his first three years (which was actually over 16%). Mason, unlike Zou, could probably convert those extra boards into points on his own, though the free throw rate is a problem
Similarly, Mason could improve his free throw shooting, but it's really not a problem so far.
Right now, in end of game situations where we need points, K is subbing out Mason and putting Ryan in. That would never happen with Zoubek last year, and shows where Mason needs to improve.
Miles Plumlee
Not happening. I'm not trying to be mean to Miles here, but unlike his brother and Ryan, Miles has actually taken a step back in several major categories including Shooting %, and Defensive Rebounding....a point in which Miles actually was 2nd best on the team last year, and top 100 in the country. Not anymore...his defensive rebounding rate has dropped basically 5%! Some of that might be not playing the 5 as often, but he still is doing so a good bit, and just isn't coming up with the rebounds. Meanwhile Miles is still committing fouls at a way too high rate (6.3 fouls per 40 minutes), making him a liability on the floor at times. Small wonder that Miles' minutes have dropped.
Miles is offensive rebounding a little better this year and if he's going to be the break-out player, this area, and his defensive rebounding will need to improve. But he also would have to drop his rate of committing fouls...which would usually involve making less effort to go for the boards. Thus it's kind of unlikely.
Josh Hairston - Also unlikely. Josh is the worst shooter on the team, fouls more frequently than Miles, and most importantly is blocked from playing time by better and more experienced players. Personally, I think his best comp is Lance Thomas...but he's not there yet, and Josh is only a freshman.
Seth Curry - Curry has shown flashes of great shooting...but Luke Winn noted a few weeks ago that Curry's shooting efficiency drops greatly when he's contested for shots, far more than any other player on the team. I think he's improved at that recently, but it's still a concern. Curry has an edge on Andre Dawkins in that he's essentially redshirted a year so is a year more experienced, has carried a team and played major minutes before, and that he seems more willing to dribble around to create his own shot. Meanwhile, Curry has a very low turnover rate (13.7% of possessions) which is second best on the team to Kyle Singler, and the best among guards on the team. And on Defense, his quick hands have led to a top 150 steal rate, easily the best on the team.
Chance of Break-Out: To break-out Curry would likely need to become more consistent at shooting, but I think Curry's best way to breakout would be for him to be able to learn to set up his teammates better for more shots. Curry can be seen akin to Nolan Smith last year: playing shooting guard, Nolan was extremely good at avoiding turnovers (a turnover rate of 12.8%, close to Curry's own 13.7%), while still setting up his teammates for good shots a decent amount of the time (an assist rate of 17.7%). Curry currently has an assist rate of just 12.4%, which is actually BELOW his low turnover rate. Curry doesn't need to be a true point guard, Nolan's there for that just like Scheyer filled the role last year. But if he can learn to find his teammates for open shots, perhaps by kicking out on drives, he can find his own shot more open as opponents have to more respect his abilities. Right now, Curry is simply an efficient shooter. By becoming a more complete player and learning to pass, he can break out. It should be noted that at Liberty, his assist and turnover rate were basically the same as they were right now, despite Curry being the only great player on that team.
Curry has much better teammates now...and while he's not shouldering the load as much and doesn't have the ball as much, he should learn to use them as much as they use him.
Andre Dawkins - Andre is an amazing shooter. No one denies that...up through last Sunday Andre still ranked nationally as a top 5 shooter by effective field goal % (eFG%) and True Shooting % (TS%). Pretty Impressive. But Andre hasn't proven he can do anything else...he doesn't create his own shots as much, he doesn't get as many steals as other guards on the team, doesn't find opponents for open shots (assists), and doesn't get to the free throw line very often (about half as often as his rival for playing time, Seth Curry). To be more than a role player, Andre needs to add a new dimension to his game.
Like Curry, I think that area is learning to move around with the ball and to find other open players. This is probably more difficult for Andre because he gets the ball less frequently when he's not open (when he should be jacking up a shot), and isn't as opt as moving around to get an opening. Of course, that's where Andre can improve, by learning to move around like Curry so that he can get the ball more often, allowing his overall game to improve. Unfortunately, I suspect that while his shooting may be more consistent, this is just too huge of a change for this season, as it involves Dre learning a whole new element of his game.
Tyler Thornton: - TT has really impressed me; those who've talked to me know I've thought little of him for most of the season and didn't think he'd make any impact. Ummm whoops? TT is of course known for his great defense, and is getting around 10 minutes a game recently, plenty of time to make an impact. That D will keep him getting playing time, especially against guard heavy teams.
Unfortunately, TT doesn't really have a great offensive game to go with it. This isn't a problem for Duke in general; Duke has had plenty of great D, no O players in its history (Sean Dockery and Dave McClure come to mind in recent memory, with Lance Thomas sort of being there as well). But to break out, he'd need to learn to really run the O and be a solid true point guard, allowing for Nolan to return to his role from last year.
So a break-out from TT would clearly go on offense. But for some reason, he doesn't shoot. Now, a true point guard can be a pass-first type of guy, but he needs to have the ability to make the defense respect his own scoring ability. Today, we saw TT drive to the hoop, draw a foul, and make an easy layup. If TT was to do that every now and then, passing lanes would open up, and he wouldn't be a liability on O. Unfortunately,like Andre, this is talking about what seems to be a new dimension for TT's game, and probably requires another season to develop....if he can find playing time in a crowded backcourt next year. Still, he's a frosh, so there's plenty of time.
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Whew, thats a lot of words I've just written. Personally, I think Duke's best hope this year isn't a single player breaking out, but Ryan, Mason, and Seth all improving in the ways I've outlined above to some extent, improving the team drastically. But well, we're a month away from March, so I hope they do so soon.
Jon Scheyer
Nolan Smith
Kyle Singler
and
Brian Zoubek.
As it's well known by now, Zoubek broke out against Maryland and never looked back. He was the best offensive rebounder in the nation and was the key reason why Duke, a poor shooting team (believe it or not), had the most efficient offense in the country.
The question has been asked before on this board, but with a loss today that was basically this year's version of the NC State loss (or so we hope), it bears asking once more. Which player will break out?
Now to ask this question, lets assume that Smith & Singler, in addition to various role playing guards and Kelly, are able to make up for the lack of Jon Scheyer (this is debatable, but just run with it). So we currently have what amounts to 3 players, and we lack the fourth.
Mind you, Brian Zoubek last year showed flashes pre-Maryland: In the season before, Zoubek had actually had a 16.4% Offensive Rebound Rate, which would've been good enough for top ten in the country had he qualified, and he had a rate above 20% (Top 2 in the country if he had qualified) before the Maryland game. However, Brian was unable to convert on some of those boards (bad shots, wasn't kicking out) or stay on the Court.
In other words, Brian's breakout was the result of an improvement that had ALREADY OCCURRED, but simply could not be seen so obviously until he figured it out. So we should probably look for a similar player here.
Note, we're not just looking at boards here, steals, blocks, some other dimension that someone could add to this team to put this team over the top, is what we're looking for.
The Candidates:
Ryan Kelly- Kelly seems like the obvious choice. Clearly an improvement for Kelly has already occurred...he's playing smart basketball and has clearly become a major factor on this team. Moreover, he's in the top 100 players according to Pomeroy in block% (showing great defense) and offensive efficiency (showing his great shooting). Clearly there's improvement that's already there, and Ryan helps by not fouling that often, with a foul rate of less than 5 per 40 minutes (which is superb for a big man).
On the other hand, while Ryan's offensive performance is often due to his ability to create mismatches simply due to being a 6'11" player out on the wing, he seems to lack a clear ability to make his own shot. Teams can handle him by making sure he doesn't get wide open, since otherwise, he'll be little threat with the ball. This clearly limits his offensive ability.
Possibility for Break-Out: Ryan's only a sophomore and he may have broken out as far as he can already...unlike Zoubek, fouls and floor time are not limiting him, and teams are starting to defend him, slowing him down somewhat. But Ryan could improve on defense:
First: Improving his ability to block shots. Ryan is no John Henson (ugh, but a 12% block rate is ridiculous) but Shelden Williams is a potential role model at rejections....Ryan currently blocks 7.1% of shots, while Shelden blocked 9.18 and 9.48% of shots his last two years...Meanwhile, Ryan DOESN'T commit too many fouls, and unlike Shelden, we actually can afford to give him some time on the bench if he's in foul trouble. So Ryan could in fact try and be more aggressive on D at blocking shots, building on his existing great blocking ability.
Second: Improving his defensive rebounding: Ryan's probably never gonna be a great offensive rebounder...he plays too far away from the basket. But this isn't the case on defense, yet Ryan is only third on the team (15.0%) in Defensive Rebounding %. This is not a great rate...you'd like to see that number at 20 or over. Once again, Ryan could go more aggressive after these boards, risking fouls, because he's not fouling that frequently.
Mason Plumlee:
Like Ryan, Mason Plumlee sort-of fits the profile because he has had some signs of a break-out already: Mason is rebounding 26.3% of opponent's misses (Defensive Rebounding Rate), which is the 23rd best rate in the country. He's also blocking shots at a top 100 rate of 6.8%, right behind Ryan Kelly. Meanwhile, he's doing both these things with an amazing ability to avoid picking up fouls - he's picking up just 3.9 fouls per 40 minutes. And of course, he's apparently super athletic, which Doug Gottlieb thinks makes him our best player.
Of course, Mason has problems. His poor FT shooting has resulted in him being an INEFFICIENT player on offense, as we can see by his offensive rating being under 100, which is pretty poor (the teams' averaging less than a point when he has a role in the possession). He's also not been a great offensive rebounder, netting only 11.5% of our own misses, which is less than his brother. And of course, he's looked significantly worse on O since Kyrie went down, as he seems to have suffered the most from the loss of an elite passer.
Possibility of Break-Out: Mason's really been a terrific defensive player at times this year, and his foul rate is terrific....while it's unrealistic to expect him to improve defensive rebounding, he could also, like Ryan, afford to be more aggressive and try to block more shots.
However, his best chance to break-out would be on offense....Mason fouls so infrequently for a big man that you'd hope that he could improve his offensive rebounding rate...not to Zoubek-like levels, but to lets say 15%, which would put him around Zou's rate his first three years (which was actually over 16%). Mason, unlike Zou, could probably convert those extra boards into points on his own, though the free throw rate is a problem
Similarly, Mason could improve his free throw shooting, but it's really not a problem so far.
Right now, in end of game situations where we need points, K is subbing out Mason and putting Ryan in. That would never happen with Zoubek last year, and shows where Mason needs to improve.
Miles Plumlee
Not happening. I'm not trying to be mean to Miles here, but unlike his brother and Ryan, Miles has actually taken a step back in several major categories including Shooting %, and Defensive Rebounding....a point in which Miles actually was 2nd best on the team last year, and top 100 in the country. Not anymore...his defensive rebounding rate has dropped basically 5%! Some of that might be not playing the 5 as often, but he still is doing so a good bit, and just isn't coming up with the rebounds. Meanwhile Miles is still committing fouls at a way too high rate (6.3 fouls per 40 minutes), making him a liability on the floor at times. Small wonder that Miles' minutes have dropped.
Miles is offensive rebounding a little better this year and if he's going to be the break-out player, this area, and his defensive rebounding will need to improve. But he also would have to drop his rate of committing fouls...which would usually involve making less effort to go for the boards. Thus it's kind of unlikely.
Josh Hairston - Also unlikely. Josh is the worst shooter on the team, fouls more frequently than Miles, and most importantly is blocked from playing time by better and more experienced players. Personally, I think his best comp is Lance Thomas...but he's not there yet, and Josh is only a freshman.
Seth Curry - Curry has shown flashes of great shooting...but Luke Winn noted a few weeks ago that Curry's shooting efficiency drops greatly when he's contested for shots, far more than any other player on the team. I think he's improved at that recently, but it's still a concern. Curry has an edge on Andre Dawkins in that he's essentially redshirted a year so is a year more experienced, has carried a team and played major minutes before, and that he seems more willing to dribble around to create his own shot. Meanwhile, Curry has a very low turnover rate (13.7% of possessions) which is second best on the team to Kyle Singler, and the best among guards on the team. And on Defense, his quick hands have led to a top 150 steal rate, easily the best on the team.
Chance of Break-Out: To break-out Curry would likely need to become more consistent at shooting, but I think Curry's best way to breakout would be for him to be able to learn to set up his teammates better for more shots. Curry can be seen akin to Nolan Smith last year: playing shooting guard, Nolan was extremely good at avoiding turnovers (a turnover rate of 12.8%, close to Curry's own 13.7%), while still setting up his teammates for good shots a decent amount of the time (an assist rate of 17.7%). Curry currently has an assist rate of just 12.4%, which is actually BELOW his low turnover rate. Curry doesn't need to be a true point guard, Nolan's there for that just like Scheyer filled the role last year. But if he can learn to find his teammates for open shots, perhaps by kicking out on drives, he can find his own shot more open as opponents have to more respect his abilities. Right now, Curry is simply an efficient shooter. By becoming a more complete player and learning to pass, he can break out. It should be noted that at Liberty, his assist and turnover rate were basically the same as they were right now, despite Curry being the only great player on that team.
Curry has much better teammates now...and while he's not shouldering the load as much and doesn't have the ball as much, he should learn to use them as much as they use him.
Andre Dawkins - Andre is an amazing shooter. No one denies that...up through last Sunday Andre still ranked nationally as a top 5 shooter by effective field goal % (eFG%) and True Shooting % (TS%). Pretty Impressive. But Andre hasn't proven he can do anything else...he doesn't create his own shots as much, he doesn't get as many steals as other guards on the team, doesn't find opponents for open shots (assists), and doesn't get to the free throw line very often (about half as often as his rival for playing time, Seth Curry). To be more than a role player, Andre needs to add a new dimension to his game.
Like Curry, I think that area is learning to move around with the ball and to find other open players. This is probably more difficult for Andre because he gets the ball less frequently when he's not open (when he should be jacking up a shot), and isn't as opt as moving around to get an opening. Of course, that's where Andre can improve, by learning to move around like Curry so that he can get the ball more often, allowing his overall game to improve. Unfortunately, I suspect that while his shooting may be more consistent, this is just too huge of a change for this season, as it involves Dre learning a whole new element of his game.
Tyler Thornton: - TT has really impressed me; those who've talked to me know I've thought little of him for most of the season and didn't think he'd make any impact. Ummm whoops? TT is of course known for his great defense, and is getting around 10 minutes a game recently, plenty of time to make an impact. That D will keep him getting playing time, especially against guard heavy teams.
Unfortunately, TT doesn't really have a great offensive game to go with it. This isn't a problem for Duke in general; Duke has had plenty of great D, no O players in its history (Sean Dockery and Dave McClure come to mind in recent memory, with Lance Thomas sort of being there as well). But to break out, he'd need to learn to really run the O and be a solid true point guard, allowing for Nolan to return to his role from last year.
So a break-out from TT would clearly go on offense. But for some reason, he doesn't shoot. Now, a true point guard can be a pass-first type of guy, but he needs to have the ability to make the defense respect his own scoring ability. Today, we saw TT drive to the hoop, draw a foul, and make an easy layup. If TT was to do that every now and then, passing lanes would open up, and he wouldn't be a liability on O. Unfortunately,like Andre, this is talking about what seems to be a new dimension for TT's game, and probably requires another season to develop....if he can find playing time in a crowded backcourt next year. Still, he's a frosh, so there's plenty of time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Whew, thats a lot of words I've just written. Personally, I think Duke's best hope this year isn't a single player breaking out, but Ryan, Mason, and Seth all improving in the ways I've outlined above to some extent, improving the team drastically. But well, we're a month away from March, so I hope they do so soon.