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Chris Randolph
01-30-2011, 03:28 PM
National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT.....

We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.

And yes, I know Georgetown put a good thumping on us last year but we had 5 very experienced players and amazing chemistry within that team that Coach K himself said was the best he'd ever been around.

uh_no
01-30-2011, 03:38 PM
National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT.....

We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.

100% spot on

You can see it since kyrie has been out....a huge amount of our points come fromm 3's and transition buckets....and due to this we see huge stretches of games where we don't score....take BC last week for a perfect example....and it was only on 3's and transition buckets that we came back....

I personally think duke's rating and win total are artificially inflated by a weak schedule....

that said, it was like a broken record how st. johns had wide open looks every time down the floor EVERY TIME, this team can't score like it did with kyrie around, and it can't play defense like last year's team did....

people are going to come here and rip us for being all doom and gloom, but we've seen spurts of it where duke can't score....it happens every game....and today duke faced a good big east team (i don't think you can question the strength of the big east after seeing how well st johns played today...an aside but w/e) and put together a complete half of being unable to score....that coupled with our inability to play defense against a quick team which could penetrate at will put us so far down that we couldn't recover.....

conclusion: we need kyrie irving to be able to lead us so that we can still put points on the board even when we can't get out and run and we can't hit 3's

Namtilal
01-30-2011, 03:42 PM
They outplayed us all over the court, and we didn't know how to react. However, it was one game. If you think this is the team Coach K will have on the court in March, and you think that we won't adapt and learn from this thrashing, then you haven't been paying enough attention to Duke Basketball the last 30 years.

It's wasn't definite we would win the title with Kyrie, and it's certainly way less likely now. However, as Coach K says about terrible defeats: here's to not forgetting.

pamtar
01-30-2011, 03:43 PM
We got whooped in a similar situation by Georgetown last year. This team is better than last year. Last year's team would have lost this game by 30. Kyrie is not the answer, the Plumlees are. If Mason and Miles can get it going on a regular basis than we will go far. You can't shoot contested three's against bigger and more athletic defenders and expect to win. The establishment of an inside game will open up the perimeter.

Both played horribly on both ends of the floor today. We are alarmingly unathletic again and it shows.

uh_no
01-30-2011, 03:44 PM
They outplayed us all over the court, and we didn't know how to react. However, it was one game. If you think this is the team Coach K will have on the court in March, and you think that we won't adapt and learn from this thrashing, then you haven't been paying enough attention to Duke Basketball the last 30 years.

It's wasn't definite we would win the title with Kyrie, and it's certainly way less likely now. However, as Coach K says about terrible defeats: here's to not forgetting.

I paid attention to duke 2 years ago when we got thrashed by clemson....then got thrashed by villanova.....

obviously coach K will make changes....but someone has to turn into the 3rd piece of the triforce if we can expect to go anywhere come march

Oriole Way
01-30-2011, 03:49 PM
National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT.....

We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.

And yes, I know Georgetown put a good thumping on us last year but we had 5 very experienced players and amazing chemistry within that team that Coach K himself said was the best he'd ever been around.

Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation. It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.

I think you overestimate how good the rest of the top teams in the country are. Ohio State is best, most balanced team, but they only go 7 deep and they heavily rely on a freshman. If they experience any foul trouble in any big games, which is more than likely, especially if coaches game plan around stopping and frustrating Sullinger, they can easily be beaten.

You say that a potential title team like Duke should never lose like they did against St. Johns. Well, I submit that a team like Ohio State should never beat Northwestern by just 1 point, but that's what they did.

Kansas is the other team which concerns me, but I think they are a worse team with Josh Selby, who is a highly inefficient player and will lose Kansas more games than win them against elite competition.

I think Duke's role players - Dawkins, Curry, the Piumlees, Kelly, Thornton - are much more dynamic and talented than last season's bench and role players, and if Duke wins it all again without Irving, that group will be a big reason why.

Duke could certainly lose in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight, but the bottom line is that they are still one of the best teams in the country. They have more than enough talent to win it all - even without Kyrie.

rthomas
01-30-2011, 03:53 PM
Realistic expectations are that you will not win every game during the season, nor will you play up to 100% of your ability every game.

Nor will you satisfy every Duke fan every game despite their knowing the realistic expectations stated in the sentence above.

stillcrazie
01-30-2011, 03:53 PM
We got whooped in a similar situation by Georgetown last year. This team is better than last year. Last year's team would have lost this game by 30. Kyrie is not the answer, the Plumlees are. If Mason and Miles can get it going on a regular basis than we will go far. You can't shoot contested three's against bigger and more athletic defenders and expect to win. The establishment of an inside game will open up the perimeter.

Both played horribly on both ends of the floor today. We are alarmingly unathletic again and it shows.

I am not sure that last year's team loses by 30. Zoubek and LT would have been taking charges in the paint and protecting the basket.

Chris Randolph
01-30-2011, 03:55 PM
We got whooped in a similar situation by Georgetown last year. This team is better than last year. Last year's team would have lost this game by 30. Kyrie is not the answer, the Plumlees are. If Mason and Miles can get it going on a regular basis than we will go far. You can't shoot contested three's against bigger and more athletic defenders and expect to win. The establishment of an inside game will open up the perimeter.

Both played horribly on both ends of the floor today. We are alarmingly unathletic again and it shows.

Without Kyrie, I'd take last year's team over this year's team in a heartbeat. The experience of our starting 5, the maturity, leadership and will to win are very rare in teams and that team had it all. Not to mention a trifecta in Scheyer, Smith and Singler. Last year's team did play in a game like today (against Georgetown) and lost by a similar score. But I believe because of the description of last year's team a couple sentences ago and the brilliance of our coaches, we overcame it to win a title. We've still got the coaches but we are missing some of the other attributes that are key to winning a title when you are not as talented as many teams (much like last year).Kyrie is the answer. The Plumlees are at their best when Kyrie is playing. It is as simple as that. Sure, without Kyrie the Plums prodcution is huge (but so is everyone elses).

Namtilal
01-30-2011, 03:56 PM
I am not sure that last year's team loses by 30. Zoubek and LT would have been taking charges in the paint and protecting the basket.

Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.

uh_no
01-30-2011, 03:57 PM
It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.


I think we have some duke blue colored glasses there......duke just got blown out by a middle of the pack Big east team (well that is saying something given its the big east...but anyway)

lets take a look at the losses of the other title contenders

OSU: no losses
PItt: lost to top 25 teams by <10 points (given tenn is not ranked, but they're a bit of an enigma this year
DUke: nc
uconn: 3 losses to top 20 teams...beaten handily by pitt, and close losses to ND and UL
Kansas: fell apart against a top notch texas team
texas: BAD loss USC....close losses to Pitt and Uconn

St Johns won going away vs ND, so we can say that ND has a similar loss, but how many people are penning ND as huge title contenders ATM?

Oriole Way
01-30-2011, 03:57 PM
I am not sure that last year's team loses by 30. Zoubek and LT would have been taking charges in the paint and protecting the basket.

Zoubek didn't assert himself until after the Georgetown and NC State fiascos, so it's doubtful he would have been on the floor enough to be a factor.

uh_no
01-30-2011, 04:01 PM
Zoubek didn't assert himself until after the Georgetown and NC State fiascos, so it's doubtful he would have been on the floor enough to be a factor.

I think he means post zoubek revelation....it'll take a similar revelation this year by one of our players, or a kyrie return, to win a championship

pamtar
01-30-2011, 04:02 PM
Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.

We don't have enough good on ball defenders to not provide help. That's what killed us in the paint today. SJU got at least 8 open layups due to an exhausted help D. People got beat and help eventually ran out.

I do agree with the earlier point made about LT and Z taking charges . That's good analysis.

Still, the sky's the limit with this team. We have a chance to win the NC just as much as the other top 10 teams do. Also, I trust K to have us more ready than any other coach out there.

Chris Randolph
01-30-2011, 04:04 PM
You say that a potential title team like Duke should never lose like they did against St. Johns. Well, I submit that a team like Ohio State should never beat Northwestern by just 1 point, but that's what they did.

I think Duke's role players - Dawkins, Curry, the Piumlees, Kelly, Thornton - are much more dynamic and talented than last season's bench and role players, and if Duke wins it all again without Irving, that group will be a big reason why.

Ohio St plays bad on the road and wins by 1. We play bad on the road and lose by 15. They found a way to win and we found a way to look pretty bad. Common theme we both played bad, uncommon theme is the result when playing bad. But I will say St Johns is better than NWestern but you get my point.

Dawkins, Curry and Plumlee are more talented role players and are at their best in 2 situations: At home and with Kyrie in the lineup (neither of which looks to take place in the tourney). Kyrie gets those guys wide open looks against any opponent.

Chris Randolph
01-30-2011, 04:05 PM
Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.

YES! Totally agree. Last year we sagged off and emphasized great team defense. I think we should do it again, seemed to work ok a year ago :) I'd much rather a team shoot it from 20 ft than 3 ft :)

stillcrazie
01-30-2011, 04:09 PM
Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.

I agree and am not sure why that adjustment wasn't made at the half. I still think that even before the revelation vs. MD last year, Zoubek and LT had more intensity on defense than our bigs do this year. It may just come down to experience, Zoubek and LT knew this was their last chance as seniors and were not going to back down for anyone. Hopefully the younger guys can get that. Soon.

-jk
01-30-2011, 04:09 PM
I've said it before. I imagine I'll say it again - we're young. We have three upperclassmen on the team (albeit two are fabulous). The rest of the team is young, and still learning. We can expect bumps along the way - it's the nature of a young team.

-jk

Oriole Way
01-30-2011, 04:18 PM
I think we have some duke blue colored glasses there......duke just got blown out by a middle of the pack Big east team (well that is saying something given its the big east...but anyway)

lets take a look at the losses of the other title contenders

OSU: no losses
PItt: lost to top 25 teams by <10 points (given tenn is not ranked, but they're a bit of an enigma this year
DUke: nc
uconn: 3 losses to top 20 teams...beaten handily by pitt, and close losses to ND and UL
Kansas: fell apart against a top notch texas team
texas: BAD loss USC....close losses to Pitt and Uconn

St Johns won going away vs ND, so we can say that ND has a similar loss, but how many people are penning ND as huge title contenders ATM?

Trust me, I don't have blue colored glasses. I am harsher on the team and Coach K than a vast majority of this board when I feel they deserve criticism.

The main reason your argument isn't sound is that last season's national champion lost a game against NC State, which was worse than this St. John's team. The fact that this Duke team is so similar to last season's Duke team is what allows me to accurately dispute the original poster's assertion that "title contenders simply don't lose to the likes to St. John's."

Pittsburgh is playing great basketball, but they are going to lose a few games, probably in a short span, because they play in the Big East. They are also overachieving relative to their talent. They are to be commended, but they are not immune to a slump. It will happen, and likely soon. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost back-to-back games against West Virginia and Villanova, and they would still have tough games against Louisville, West Virginia again, and Villanova again. And just because they haven't lost to any mediocre teams yet doesn't mean that they won't, or that they aren't susceptible to it.

UConn is radically dependent on one player, Kemba Walker. He could very well be the best player in the country, but when he doesn't play well, they will lose more often than not. They have a ton more question marks than Duke does, and I don't really consider them a title contender. Even more so with Texas, especially since Rick Barnes is one of the worst tournament and in-game coaches in the country of all the big time programs.

I really think Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke have by far the best chance of winning it all, and have the most talent. Pittsburgh may be a step behind in terms of being a title contender given their play up until this point, but I'm not sold on them yet, especially in a tournament setting where they won't be able to capitalize on their home court advantage (same could be said for Duke, but Duke is more talented).

Saratoga2
01-30-2011, 04:19 PM
Without Kyrie, I'd take last year's team over this year's team in a heartbeat. The experience of our starting 5, the maturity, leadership and will to win are very rare in teams and that team had it all. Not to mention a trifecta in Scheyer, Smith and Singler. Last year's team did play in a game like today (against Georgetown) and lost by a similar score. But I believe because of the description of last year's team a couple sentences ago and the brilliance of our coaches, we overcame it to win a title. We've still got the coaches but we are missing some of the other attributes that are key to winning a title when you are not as talented as many teams (much like last year).Kyrie is the answer. The Plumlees are at their best when Kyrie is playing. It is as simple as that. Sure, without Kyrie the Plums prodcution is huge (but so is everyone elses).

I would find it difficult to typify the coaching today as brilliant.We continued to press with our defense even though it was getting us beat for easy buckets over and over again. With a size advantage but not a quickness advantage, it would seem an adjustment needed to be made but really never was. We scored a lot of points in the second half but only closed the gap by 6. We were just giving up too many eay buckets.

Turnovers were also a problem for Duke. We didn't do a good job of breaking SJ down when they pressed us. Only a few times did we get a good look. I believe that we need to give more PT to another primary ball handler. Nolan is a great off the ball scorer but it is asking a lot of him also to be the primary ball handler. Seth has his issues against quick athletic guards and Tyler is inexperienced, but one of those two has to help Nolan more. I would vote for Tyler at this point.

Our shooting was awful for much of the game, especially the three point. Not much we can do about that since our inside offense is weak. We just have to turn our shooter around. They have the capability but one or more of them have been off of late and Kyle is also not shooting as well as we had hoped. Hard to put shooting woes on the coaching staff. Just need a positive outlook and go on into the next game.

Wander
01-30-2011, 04:24 PM
We can expect bumps along the way - it's the nature of a young team.


Are you sure this is actually true? Last year we had an old team, and had more "bumps" at this point in the season. This year, Ohio State is young, and has had less "bumps."

I've never really been completely convinced of many of the commonly held beliefs about youth in basketball.

Chris Randolph
01-30-2011, 04:31 PM
Realistic expectations must be made for coaches too. Its easy to forget that coach K and staff make poor decisions and have a bad game too every once in awhile. It is human nature to mess up. Sure you would have love to seen a more soft (less pressure) defense on the perimeter but Coach K must have thought differently. Maybe he will begin to implement that style after reviewing this game.

Chris Randolph
01-30-2011, 04:34 PM
Are you sure this is actually true? Last year we had an old team, and had more "bumps" at this point in the season. This year, Ohio State is young, and has had less "bumps."

I've never really been completely convinced of many of the commonly held beliefs about youth in basketball.

Ohio St isn't that young. Sullinger of course but Lighty, Diebler, Lauderdale and Buford are JR's and SR's. If you look at past national champions over the last decade, experience is a common theme.

OldSchool
01-30-2011, 05:02 PM
Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation. It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.

I second this. I put today's loss down to poor strategy, not lack of effort or better players on the opposing team.

I'll take our team's chances at the NC over any other team. I love the way Nolan has taken his game to an elite level, and I like the way Ryan is emerging as an additional shooter and a shot-blocker and an all-around smart ball-player.

What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.

Oriole Way
01-30-2011, 05:10 PM
I second this. I put today's loss down to poor strategy, not lack of effort or better players on the opposing team.

I'll take our team's chances at the NC over any other team. I love the way Nolan has taken his game to an elite level, and I like the way Ryan is emerging as an additional shooter and a shot-blocker and an all-around smart ball-player.

What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.

Completely agree. Miles and Mason, especially Mason, are the keys to this team, and if they can somehow make a Zoubek-esque improvement (and it doesn't even need to be that drastic, since Mason is already rebounding with authority) from now until the end of the season, then we have a very good chance to win it all.

If Kyrie Irving comes back before the tournament, and he's 100%, then it doesn't matter if Miles and Mason improve. With a healthy Irving, we will likely win it all again regardless of any development from the Plumless. Unfortunately, I don't think it's likely that he comes back, or that he gets back to 100%. But the slim chance that he does makes this team's chances even better, and they are good to begin with.

Namtilal
01-30-2011, 05:33 PM
We don't have enough good on ball defenders to not provide help. That's what killed us in the paint today. SJU got at least 8 open layups due to an exhausted help D. People got beat and help eventually ran out.

We can dominate lesser athletes with our pressure up top. The Johnnies showed today that a team that can match our athleticism can shred our half-court pressure. There was no way the bigs could defend against all that penetration. Against a team like SJU, we would have to pack it in more and let them have better shots from outside, along with forcing fewer turnovers, in order to prevent all those wide-open layups.

We aren't good enough to force a team like St. John's to play the way we want to right now. Instead, we have to pick our poison and let them have more room up top and fewer easy buckets inside. In time, we may improve; we will, however, meet a team like St. John's in the tourney, and we have to know our abilities in order to contain them.

Question: Do we have to be a pressuring, ball-hawking team that scores off turnovers to win the title? I don't think so. I do know, however, that if we are not good enough to stop a quick team with that D, we will not win it all by trying.

Chris Randolph
01-30-2011, 05:40 PM
What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.

We did not have this aspect last year but won the title but we did have 3 scorers who got open off of the bigs screens and offensive rebounding (which if Mason and Miles could do those things for us, I like our chances even more, they are too inconsistent). Mason and Miles style of play is getting up and down the floor and finishing at the rim (usually with Kyrie or Nolan assisting). They are not back to the basket players, which to me is obvious if you've seen them try to back guys down or execute post moves.

dukeballer2294
01-30-2011, 05:50 PM
we are patronizing last years team a little too much. truth of the matter is that last years team came together down the stretch and played well enough to put together 6 games to win the tournament. last year at this time lance and z were ridiculed for their underproduction and lack of inside presence. both picked it up down the stretch and that is what we can hope for with our bigs. we are talented enough to win any game and we should be grateful. however, in any sport a season wears on you and road games where you are not 100% can be tough. they got the better of us today but on a neutral court 2 months from now who knows what would happen. we are a title contender and top team for a reason w/ or w/o kyrie and itll come down to whether or not we get hot towards the end of the season.

CDu
01-30-2011, 05:59 PM
we are patronizing last years team a little too much. truth of the matter is that last years team came together down the stretch and played well enough to put together 6 games to win the tournament. last year at this time lance and z were ridiculed for their underproduction and lack of inside presence. both picked it up down the stretch and that is what we can hope for with our bigs. we are talented enough to win any game and we should be grateful. however, in any sport a season wears on you and road games where you are not 100% can be tough. they got the better of us today but on a neutral court 2 months from now who knows what would happen. we are a title contender and top team for a reason w/ or w/o kyrie and itll come down to whether or not we get hot towards the end of the season.

Agreed. Last year's team wasn't a juggernaut for most of the season. Things came together down the stretch and the results turned out great. The same could happen this year, but that shouldn't just be assumed. It was a remarkable (and somewhat sudden) change that resulted in last year's team's emergence.

Wander
01-30-2011, 06:46 PM
Ohio St isn't that young. Sullinger of course but Lighty, Diebler, Lauderdale and Buford are JR's and SR's. If you look at past national champions over the last decade, experience is a common theme.

Well, OSU plays a 7 man rotation, and the other three guys are all freshmen. If you go by the kenpom stats, OSU is just barely less experienced than we are this year. And Syracuse and Florida both won national championships with young teams.

Of course, players do tend to get better with experience, I just think it's a metric that is used incorrectly in evaluating teams.

BTW, St John's is actually a perfect example - they're loaded with seniors, but are wildly inconsistent.

weezie
01-30-2011, 06:48 PM
And osu barely, barely squeeeeeked by northwestern last night.

Nobody has it all figured out yet. Except for the brainiacs over on insidecarholeina.

OldSchool
01-30-2011, 07:48 PM
We did not have this aspect last year but won the title but we did have 3 scorers who got open off of the bigs screens and offensive rebounding (which if Mason and Miles could do those things for us, I like our chances even more, they are too inconsistent). Mason and Miles style of play is getting up and down the floor and finishing at the rim (usually with Kyrie or Nolan assisting). They are not back to the basket players, which to me is obvious if you've seen them try to back guys down or execute post moves.

Well, okay but Z developed into a truly remarkable offensive rebounder, and the net efficiency in the additional offensive boards combined with the resulting kick-outs for threes from high percentage shooters offset the lack of low post offense from Z. Statistically, Z's offensive rebounding last season, especially in the last half of the season was off-the-charts in college basketball.

However, unlike Z (not as athletic) or Lance (undersized for a low post player), I think both Mason and Miles have the athletic potential to develop successful low post scoring moves. Indeed, Mason has the athletic ability to face up his defender and take him off the dribble. We have seen flashes with Mason of some really talented moves around the rim.

With Miles, who is now a junior, I suspect it may be a matter of confidence. It may start clicking with him at some point, hopefully during the course of this season.

I think we will need more of a scoring threat from them than just finishing at the rim in transition or with a lob if we are going to be a sufficiently resilient team to go deep in the tournament, and I expect to see some upcoming games in which they contribute more on the offensive end.

OldPhiKap
01-30-2011, 07:56 PM
I just wish we had a coach who knew how to address shortcomings and come up with plans to overcome weaknesses. Maybe even someone who could instill a little motivation at the right time.

That would be nice.

My expectation is that we will be competitive come tourney time, and have as good a chance as any top two or three seed. Maybe a smidge better than some.

I still think we'll be there.

CDu
01-30-2011, 08:03 PM
Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation.

Sorry, but it's really not. Winning the title is not a reasonable expectation for any team, ever. The odds are always in favor of the field over any particular team, and it's usually not close. A championship is a realistic goal, but not a realistic expectation.


It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.

And this sentence specifically contradicts your first sentence. You're acknowledging that it's more likely that we won't win the title than that we will. Thus, it's not a reasonable expectation for us to win the title.

I don't necessarily have a problem with arguing that our chances are as good or better than any single other team. But I'd argue that our chances of winning the title are no higher than 20-25%, and that may be optimistic. Thus, it's not a reasonable expectation.

MulletMan
01-30-2011, 08:13 PM
Here's my realistic expectation... for this Duke team to be better in the third week of March through the second week in April than it is in November, December, or the last week in January.

Why do we even have a "Realistic" expectations thread on this board? I mean really. The night after the National Title game last year, people on this board were talking about a repeat like it was a lock... even though there have been two repeat champions in the NCAA tournament in the last 50 years!

People were talking about going undefeated. UNDEFEATED! The absurdity of that thought is so ridiculous that I couldn't even wrap my head around it! Undefeated?! C'mon.

5 top 10 teams lost this weekend, the No1 and No2 teams won by a COMBINED 4 points, and yet Duke losing is a death knell, and we'll ONLY get to the Sweet 16. Guess what? Only 8 teams make it past the Sweet 16 round. The board is crapping itself because we lost to a St. John's team that has beaten Notre Dame and Georgetown... who aren't chopped liver exactly. Does it seem, that maybe there's a bit of parity in college basketball?

Realistic expectations. Psh. Right.

Wander
01-30-2011, 08:26 PM
Here's my realistic expectation... for this Duke team to be better in the third week of March through the second week in April than it is in November, December, or the last week in January.

Why do we even have a "Realistic" expectations thread on this board? I mean really. The night after the National Title game last year, people on this board were talking about a repeat like it was a lock... even though there have been two repeat champions in the NCAA tournament in the last 50 years!

People were talking about going undefeated. UNDEFEATED! The absurdity of that thought is so ridiculous that I couldn't even wrap my head around it! Undefeated?! C'mon.

5 top 10 teams lost this weekend, the No1 and No2 teams won by a COMBINED 4 points, and yet Duke losing is a death knell, and we'll ONLY get to the Sweet 16. Guess what? Only 8 teams make it past the Sweet 16 round. The board is crapping itself because we lost to a St. John's team that has beaten Notre Dame and Georgetown... who aren't chopped liver exactly. Does it seem, that maybe there's a bit of parity in college basketball?

Realistic expectations. Psh. Right.

There's a lot of unfair stuff here. First of all, UCLA, Duke, and Florida have all had teams to repeat as champions in the past 50 years. Secondly, there are tons of examples of teams - including recent Duke teams - that are not better in March than they are in January. And most importantly, a lot of the expectations/hopes for this team were made before our best player was injured, maybe for the season.

You're right that the loss today isn't the end of the world, but it's also something to be legitimately concerned about - just like Georgetown was last year.

Starter
01-30-2011, 08:36 PM
I do think it's reasonable to think that this team as currently assembled will not win a title. I keep hearing about the team that won last season after the Georgetown debacle, but Zoubek's Valentine's Day weekend transformation gave them a dominant element they simply didn't have before.

The good news is that a potential Irving return could be this year's equivalent to that element. His remarkable level of talent covers up for a lot -- it makes the Plumlees viable offensive players, for one thing. And I still haven't heard anything that rules out a return.

But if that doesn't happen, I think we have to be realistic. I don't see anyone else on this team making a Zoubek leap. Kyrie returning, if that were to happen, would of course qualify in terms of our point guard play being dramatically enhanced, the same way Zoubek enhanced our center position.

Newton_14
01-30-2011, 08:59 PM
Here's my realistic expectation... for this Duke team to be better in the third week of March through the second week in April than it is in November, December, or the last week in January.

Why do we even have a "Realistic" expectations thread on this board? I mean really. The night after the National Title game last year, people on this board were talking about a repeat like it was a lock... even though there have been two repeat champions in the NCAA tournament in the last 50 years!

People were talking about going undefeated. UNDEFEATED! The absurdity of that thought is so ridiculous that I couldn't even wrap my head around it! Undefeated?! C'mon.

5 top 10 teams lost this weekend, the No1 and No2 teams won by a COMBINED 4 points, and yet Duke losing is a death knell, and we'll ONLY get to the Sweet 16. Guess what? Only 8 teams make it past the Sweet 16 round. The board is crapping itself because we lost to a St. John's team that has beaten Notre Dame and Georgetown... who aren't chopped liver exactly. Does it seem, that maybe there's a bit of parity in college basketball?

Realistic expectations. Psh. Right.

Agree 100%. We were a Top 5 team before the game and a Top 5 team now. We lost to a good team that played at a very high level. We came out flat and had a off day as a team. St Johns played an outstanding game today. Tip your hat to them.

In the college game today, if you are playing a Top 60 team, and they play at their best and you have an off day, expect to get soundly beaten. That is just the way it is. We could play them at Cameron Indoor tomorrow, and run them out of the gym if we played at a high level and they were off.

As for the ridiculous pre-season threads, the most ludicrous to me was the thread to discuss "Where this year's team would rank in Duke History". That one was just bizarre to me.

This is a developing team, down a man, but still plenty of talent. A Top 5 team for sure, but not some juggernaut that is going to run every team out of the gym, nor win when we play as poorly as we did today.

Next Play. Bring on Maryland.

hurley1
01-30-2011, 10:45 PM
Trust me, I don't have blue colored glasses. I am harsher on the team and Coach K than a vast majority of this board when I feel they deserve criticism.

The main reason your argument isn't sound is that last season's national champion lost a game against NC State, which was worse than this St. John's team. The fact that this Duke team is so similar to last season's Duke team is what allows me to accurately dispute the original poster's assertion that "title contenders simply don't lose to the likes to St. John's."

Pittsburgh is playing great basketball, but they are going to lose a few games, probably in a short span, because they play in the Big East. They are also overachieving relative to their talent. They are to be commended, but they are not immune to a slump. It will happen, and likely soon. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost back-to-back games against West Virginia and Villanova, and they would still have tough games against Louisville, West Virginia again, and Villanova again. And just because they haven't lost to any mediocre teams yet doesn't mean that they won't, or that they aren't susceptible to it.

UConn is radically dependent on one player, Kemba Walker. He could very well be the best player in the country, but when he doesn't play well, they will lose more often than not. They have a ton more question marks than Duke does, and I don't really consider them a title contender. Even more so with Texas, especially since Rick Barnes is one of the worst tournament and in-game coaches in the country of all the big time programs.

I really think Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke have by far the best chance of winning it all, and have the most talent. Pittsburgh may be a step behind in terms of being a title contender given their play up until this point, but I'm not sold on them yet, especially in a tournament setting where they won't be able to capitalize on their home court advantage (same could be said for Duke, but Duke is more talented).

iF dUKE IS A TITLE CONTENDER, IS ST. JOHNS NOT A TITLE CONTENDER ???.......COULD DUKE BEAT THEM THE 2ND GO ROUND ??????

uh_no
01-30-2011, 10:48 PM
if duke is a title contender, is st. Johns not a title contender ???.......could duke beat them the 2nd go round ??????

no doubt in my mind they would be ready on go around 2 against any team

Aditya
01-31-2011, 12:45 AM
To me, what matters is if Duke in the top four at the end of the season and Duke is playing solid, consistent basketball at the end of the season. If getting wrecked by St. John's is a learning experience that leads to those two goals, then I think a realistic expectation is going deep into the tournament and hopefully winning the championship.

NashvilleDevil
01-31-2011, 01:36 AM
Here is mine. Duke will lose again this year, maybe Wednesday at Maryland, maybe at Chapel Hill or some other game in the regular season. And when they do lose I realistically expect to read a bunch of chicken little posts after each loss.

Bluealum
01-31-2011, 09:24 AM
Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.

This is a great point and deserves more discussion.

When we have a game that exposes us (pick a year) Villanova, Georgetown and now St. Johns, the formula seems strikingly similar.

An athletic veteran team with guards that can dribble by our guards who are good at dropping it off to the open big when our bigs rotate to stop penetration (like Kyrie did and unlike Nolan does). This does not happen often because not that many teams have guards that are quick enough with the ball to get by our perimeter and good enough passers to find the open big when we rotate. When a team does have that it exposes our defensive philosophy (All philosophies have some weaknesses imo).

The answer of course is A.) to work harder at preventing penetration from the gaurds (effort and execution) or to B.) sag and allow a few more less contested threes to prevent penetration (tactics).

I believe that if we were in a tournament with this team K would have switched to B.) in the second half at least (and called more timeouts in the 1st as things were getting away from us).

I believe these games happen mid-season and out of conference not entirely by coincidence. It's not that K does not want to win, but if he sees the team is flat and is not giving 100% on defense, he allows them to work through it on their own (and when they can't they flail). If they pull it together it is a great mental boost, and if they don't he gets to SHOW them what happens when dribble penetration is allowed and the bigs don't rotate with an eye to protecting the basket as well as some hedging to prevent to easy drop off to the open big.

He gets a great teaching point and the OOC loss mid-season is easier to swallow. Again, I don't think he wants a loss, but he seems to interfere less and provide less energy to the team in these types of games to see how they react. I think we was disappointed in their fight last night for this reason. Kyle fought from the opening tip. Nolan fought in the second half. Tyler fought (but fouled too much) when he was in. Everyone else was back on their heels. The team is going to see a lot of this on tape and they aren't going to like what they see....

My thoughts anyway.

I think we will be better for this game, and I think our guards are better defensively than we showed today which will make the bigs look much better, so the potential is still there. I still have hope for a strong post-season even w/o Ky.

KyDevilinIL
01-31-2011, 09:41 AM
\Again, I don't think he wants a loss, but he seems to interfere less and provide less energy to the team in these types of games to see how they react.

Absolutely agree. I can't think of any situation, at any age, in any activity or discipline, in which being left to your own devices – either by necessity or by someone else's decision – doesn't produce the most significant learning.

A ton of people have pointed at game prep or X's and O's after yesterday's loss. I frankly don't think that had anything to do with it. We played horribly. K obviously recognized that there was little he could do to save that sinking ship, so he stepped back and let the guys deal with the situation they created with their horrid play.

I'm confident that K would have intervened more if he truly believed that what was happening was his fault or his staff's fault. But it wasn't. On this day the team seemed unable to execute the coaches' gameplan at all, so there was no use in massive in-game adjustments.

K's message was simple: Play better.

TampaDuke
01-31-2011, 10:23 AM
Since it's a given that the Selection Committee will pave our way to the title game and that the referees will give us all the calls, I'd say we have a realistic chance at the title. :D

DukeCrow
01-31-2011, 11:02 AM
Anyone think that the reason that Coach K hasn't slowed down the offense and pulled back the defense more is that he actually does think Kyrie will be back this season? It would make more sense to keep the team playing a style that will more naturally integrate Kyrie back into the game flow than to have to switch playing styles multiple times during the season.

Granted, I'm probably reaching with this theory....

CDu
01-31-2011, 11:29 AM
Since it's a given that the Selection Committee will pave our way to the title game and that the referees will give us all the calls, I'd say we have a realistic chance at the title. :D

I know this is a joke, but I just want to clarify something. There's a difference between having a realistic chance and having a realistic expectation of winning the title.

Devil in the Blue Dress
01-31-2011, 12:27 PM
Here is mine. Duke will lose again this year, maybe Wednesday at Maryland, maybe at Chapel Hill or some other game in the regular season. And when they do lose I realistically expect to read a bunch of chicken little posts after each loss.
You're on the money. There is often a very think line between fantasy and reality.

tele
01-31-2011, 01:23 PM
I know this is a joke, but I just want to clarify something. There's a difference between having a realistic chance and having a realistic expectation of winning the title.
I understand your point, but there are two other aspects to consider. First if you are a player, or coach (or maybe even a fan at Cameron), you need to believe you can win it all and even to have the confidence to expect to win, in order to succeed at a high level. Teams that take the floor believing they only have a 12% chance to win it all don't realistically go too far.

And second, even with an unaligned outside evaluation of a team that just has a "realistic chance" of winning a title, you still have to have an expectation, reasonable or not, that this chance will in fact come in, or no one would ever place a bet and far fewer would travel and buy tickets to see a game. You can argue that this isnt really a reasonable expectation to you, but then you would be missing out on the entertainment of being into the game as a bettor or a fan, not to mention the fun if a title chance comes home. Besides, sometimes an unexpected championship can be more gratifying than one that was a given.

PADukeMom
01-31-2011, 02:03 PM
Hmmm...this year's team better than last years...without Kyrie....hmmm I just can't say that. I know what you're going to say "we didn't have Kyrie last year" but we had Jon Schyer, Lance & Zoubs. SENIOR LEADERSHIP! Our bigs have got to step-up & play hard.
My opinion of the future of this team will be the first 5 minutes of Wednesday's game. If we start off slow again the crowd at Comcast will cream us.

DukieinSoCal
01-31-2011, 02:34 PM
National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT.....

We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.


As we've all seen many times before, the great thing about the NCAA tournament is all the upsets. So much of a team's success in the tourney is dependent on seeding, matchups, other top seeds falling, etc. We may never have won last year if we had to face Kentucky or Mich. St. or had a different makeup to our region.

And it's too simplistic to just base predictions on rankings because we could easily be a tough matchup for a team ranked higher than us or have a horrible mathcup against a team ranked lower than us.

Let's just hope that we can finish the season strong and get a high seed. If the cards fall just right again, maybe we won't even have to face Ohio St. or Pitt in the tourney.

And I still have faith in coach K and Kyrie's comeback. The toe will heal!

PADukeMom
01-31-2011, 03:13 PM
Hmmm...this year's team better than last years...without Kyrie....hmmm I just can't say that. I know what you're going to say "we didn't have Kyrie last year" but we had Jon Schyer, Lance & Zoubs. SENIOR LEADERSHIP! Our bigs have got to step-up & play hard.
My opinion of the future of this team will be the first 5 minutes of Wednesday's game. If we start off slow again the crowd at Comcast will cream us.

I mis-spoke with what I wrote earlier. Did I really say we lack senior leadership???? Really??? I'm the one who can't wait to buy a Nolan Smith jersey! SMH! Call it my I-AM-SICK-OF-SNOW moment.
Nolan & Kyle are as good as it gets but I want to see some good old court smacking fire & passion from this team. That's what I meant.
Looks like I am going to be stuck at home with my youngest son for the next 2 days dealing with snow & ice.

CDu
01-31-2011, 03:35 PM
I understand your point, but there are two other aspects to consider. First if you are a player, or coach (or maybe even a fan at Cameron), you need to believe you can win it all and even to have the confidence to expect to win, in order to succeed at a high level. Teams that take the floor believing they only have a 12% chance to win it all don't realistically go too far.

This is irrelevant. The coaches and players shouldn't ever look at the odds of winning it all, because it's not important. You can only win one game at a time in the tournament. So the coaches' jobs are to get the players ready for each individual game, so as to maximize the probability that the team wins that game.

Discussion of the probability of winning it all is simply message board/media/statistician fodder.


And second, even with an unaligned outside evaluation of a team that just has a "realistic chance" of winning a title, you still have to have an expectation, reasonable or not, that this chance will in fact come in, or no one would ever place a bet and far fewer would travel and buy tickets to see a game.

No, when you bet, you take odds. If the payout for a win (relative to what you put in) is greater than the odds that your team will win, you probably take the bet. In this case, the expectation isn't that you'll win. There is just the expectation that the payout (based on the probability of winning) is higher than the expected cost to play (or you don't take the bet).

If the expectation was that the team would win, you'd be willing to take even odds. Since the expectation is that the team is not likely to win, you take better than even odds.

Or, it could be that the bettor just doesn't understand probabilities and just likes to gamble on his/her favorite team. This person might simply take the bet regardless.


You can argue that this isnt really a reasonable expectation to you, but then you would be missing out on the entertainment of being into the game as a bettor or a fan, not to mention the fun if a title chance comes home. Besides, sometimes an unexpected championship can be more gratifying than one that was a given.

I'm a bit offended by this statement. Having a basic understanding of the probability of winning a championship doesn't mean I miss out on the entertainment/happiness of actually winning it. If anything, I think it makes me more accepting of certain types of losses (and the potential for those losses). I don't think I have enjoyed our 2010 championship any less than anyone else here.

And as I said above, you can bet without the reasonable expectation that the team will win. In fact, having the expectation that the team will win will likely just lead you into bad betting habits (which is ultimately not fun).

Again - there's a difference between having a reasonable chance to win (i.e., the team can win it) and a reasonable expectation that the team will win it.