ACC Predictions now that NBA defectors known

[ACCBBallFan]

I started out with four tiers:

UNC

Duke -Ga T- NCS- Clemson

UVA-BC-MD

FSU-Miami-Wake-VA T

Then I took ACC unbalanced schedule and home vs away into consideration, which did not change the tiers much.

(helped GA T/VA T/DU/MD, hurt UNC/Miami/FSU), and somewhat broke the ties, while creating one at the top, if UNC cannot sweep Duke or NCS or Clemson or win @ GA T.

I assumed the top two tiers win all their home games which is not likely. So there may not be as much a spread between the 5th and 6th place teams as shown below. Also unlikely UNC would lose all four road games against the second tier teams.

This year Duke has its toughter games after UNC (2) and NCS (2) at home with GA T and Clemson and do not have to play either away. Duke does have UVA(2) and MD(2).

1T. Duke (12-4) losses @ UNC, @ NCS, @MD, @UVA
1T. UNC (12-4) losses @ NCS, @ GT @ CL and @ DU

3. GA T (11-5) @ CL, @ UVA, @BC, @ DU, @ NCS (relatively favorable unbalanced ACC schedule)

4T. NCS (10-6) @UNC, @ CL, @ DU, @ BC, @ MD, @ UVA
4T. Clemson (10-6) @ GA T, @ UNC, @NCS, @ DU,@ MD, @ UVA

6. MD (8-8) @DU, @ UVA, @ BC, @ GA T, @ UNC, @UM, @ WF, @ VA T

7T. BC (7-9) @ MD, UNC (2), @UVA, @ CL, @ DU, @ UM, @ VA T, @ FSU
7T. UVA (7-9) @ VA T, @ MD, @ BC, @DU, @ GA T, vs UNC, @FSU, @ UM, @ WF

9. VA T (6-10) @UVA, @BC, GA T(2), @ MD, @ WF, @ CL, @ UNC, @ NCS, vs DU

10. Wake (5-11) GA T(2), NCS (2), @ FSU, @MD, @ VA T, vs DU, @ BC, @ CL, @ UNC

11T. Miami (4-12) @BC, @ FSU, CL(2), DU (2), GA T(2), vs UNC, @NCS, @ VA T, @ WF
11T. FSU (4-12) @UM, CL(2), UNC(2), NCS(2), @ WF, vs DU, @ GA T, @MD, @UVA

[mgtr]

Interesting, and a fair amount of work. Of note, except for UNC and DU, the teams end up in the same tiers as you started with.

[Vincetaylor]

I hate to be blunt, but that is absurd. A 10-6 record would be a great accomplishment for next years squad. 12-4 is an unhealthy expectation.

[ACCBBallFan]

I hate to be blunt, but that is absurd. A 10-6 record would be a great accomplishment for next years squad. 12-4 is an unhealthy expectation.

I agree with your comments, but point was even in a worst case scenario, UNC finishes first in ACC.

The bigest problem with my four tier analysis is that is gives no measure of the degree of difference between tiers. The assumption was that each team wins home games in its own tier and below plus one tier higher.

This translates to UNC at tier 1 losing all four road games against tier 2, which is not very likely, because of the strength differences between these tiers.

Similarly tier 2 teams win home games against tier 1 (UNC), and tier 3 teams win home games against tier 2 teams, and tier 4 teams win home games against tier 3, where the differences across tiers may not be as great as it is between tiers 1 and 2.

Likewise tier 3 and 4 teams never win a road game, and tier 2 teams only win road games against tier 4, and tier 1 team wins on the road only against tiers 3 and 4. Very possible for example for a VA Tech or FSU to win at home against Duke, and they finish with more than 4 losses.

Teams also typically do not make quantum leaps up or down in wins from one season to the next. So if we average the results from last season and this projection,

1. UNC 12-4 (Even though this still understates UNC wins, it shows the disparity between first and second)

2. Duke 10-6 (think this may be high due to reliance on frosh and loss of McRoberts, but Singler, Smith and King are nice adds)

3T. GA Tech 9-7 (bumped down 1 due to road problems to make totals 96-96)
3T. UVA 9-7 (I think this may be too high)
3T. MD 9-7 (I think this may be too high)
3T. Clemson 9-7

7T. BC 8-8 (I think this may be too high)
7T. VA T 8-8 (I think this may be too high)
7T. NCS 8-8 (I think this may be too low)

10T. FSU 5-11
10T. WF 5-11

12. Miami 4-12

This shows a decent number of ACC teams battling it out on the bubble. I personally think NCS and UNC will fare a little better and MD, UVA, VA T and BC a little worse.

So if I add some subjectivity

1. UNC 13-3

2. Duke 10-6
3T. GA T 9-7
3T. NCS 9-7
3T. Clemson 9-7

6T. UVA 8-8
6T. MD 8-8
6T. BC 8-8

9. VA T 7-9

10T. FSU 5-11
10T. WF 5-11
10T. Miami 5-11

A nice circular argument that brings us right back to the initial assumption about 4 tiers with only exception being VA T up one tier (instead of Duke up one)

UNC

Duke-GA T-NCS- Clemson

UVA-MD-BC-VA T

FSU-WF-Miami

There are now 7 ACC teams at 8-8 give or take 1, with UNC clearly at the top and FSU-WF-Miami clearly not in the NCAA picture.

[dukerev]

Much as we may not want it, Maryland will be better than .500. I know they lost some seniors, Strawberry in particular, but that is a ridiculously athletic squad with good coaching. I see Maryland finishing 10-6, perhaps 11-5. Georgia Tech will struggle to see .500 on the other hand. And NCState is going to continue to get better, too. After UNC, I see the next tier being Duke, State and Maryland. Clemson, GTech and Virginia will compete for the other NCAA bids.

[Classof06]

Am I expecting Duke to win the ACC? Nope. Is it possible? Yes. Don't confuse this with me saying that we're better than UNC. Was UVA as good as UNC last year? Not at all, but both teams shared the ACC regular season title.

I don't have any specific predictions, but it should be noted that the ACC lost a lot of talent from last year, and Duke is undoubtedly the least affected team out of all legitimate ACC contenders. Not that I'm guaranteeing we'll beat everyone else, but the only two teams I see Duke really struggling with are UNC and NC State. I say NC State poses problems due to their strong froncourt of McCauley and Costner, combined with the arrival of JJ Hickson. I say UNC because they're obviously the most talented team in the league. But after that, I really don't see too many threats.

Maryland loses Strawberry, Ibekwe, and Mike Jones (38 ppg and 15 rpg combined). UVA loses JR Reynolds and Jason Cain, (25ppg and 12 rpg). GT loses Young and Crittendon (28 ppg, 9rpg), BC loses Dudley and Marshall (33 ppg, 12 rpg), and VT loses 3 starters in Dowdell, Gordon and Collins (35 ppg, 13 rpg). UNC loses Wright and Terry (25 ppg and 12 rpg). Clemson only loses Vernon Hamilton (13 ppg, 3rpg, 3apg), but he was by far Clemson's most productive player against us, averaging about 17.5 ppg in two games vs. Duke last year. Losing a gamebreaker like Al Thornton (20 ppg, 7 rpg), I just don't see FSU being able to hang with Duke like they have been, though I'll admit they've been giving Duke tough games all decade and they'll be much stronger down low than us.

Compared to all of the above, Duke only loses 13ppg and 8rpg in McRoberts, which I'm confident can be replaced and then some between the 3 frosh. Also, remember that Duke had the hardest ACC schedule out of everyone, and by a substantial margin. I'll predict that won't be the case this year.

My point is that this league is very, very young and/or inexperienced right now; even moreso than Duke. So this year, I expect to see a lot of the ACC experience what Duke had to last year...

[kydevil]

I can't see G.T and Duke being in the same tier after they lose Young and Crittendon.

[ACCBBallFan]

I can't see G.T and Duke being in the same tier after they lose Young and Crittendon.

Like NC State, GA Tech success depends on whether they get any decent PG play. True, they did lose Crittenden, Young and Mario West, but they get Lewis Clinch back and Lawal is a nice add, but who distributes the ball is the question.

GA Tech has a nice nucleus of great atheltes and some size in

Clinch
Morrow
Smith
Dickey
Peacok
Aminu
Faye
Bell
Diaw
Lawal

and they also have a very favorable ACC unbalanced schedule playing Clemson, Wake, Miami, UVA and VA Tech twice. A couple teams GA Tech only plays once NCS and Duke where they may have lost anyway are road games, while games that may be winnable, they get at home in MD and FSU.

People have questions about Clemson too and their unbalanced schedule is very tough with UNC, NC St, GA Tech, FSU, and Miami twice, and road games with Duke,MD and UVA, home with WF, VA T and BC.

I really bunched these three with Duke out of Default since Duke has too many questions to be in the same tier (before ACC unbalanced schedule is taken into consideration) as UNC.

I wanted to keep the analysis fairly simple and not have

UNC

Duke

NCS-GA T- Clemson

UVA-BC- MD

VA T

Wake-FSU-Miami

Who else besides UNC and Duke is better than GA Tech? NC State is about the same with the same PG questions. Clemson gets Mays back but lost its primary PG though it has some alternatives.

UVA did get Singletary back but will miss JR Reynolds and Jason Cain and do not have the favorable unbalanced ACC schedule that made them appear better than they really were last year.

MD lost Strawberry, Ibekwe, Jones, their 7 footer Bowers and Parrish Brown; Gist, Vasquez, Hayes and Osby are not enough.

VA Tech lost Coleman Collins, Dowdell, Gordon, Sailes, Krabbendan and a recruit reneged.

BC lost its leaders Dudley and Marshall, plus the balance of Sean Williams' drug shortened season.

FSU lost its leader Thornton, former JUCO Jerel Allen and possibly Mims not sure what they gained.

So while people focus on Duke's post challenge and slow PG, cometition is much lighter than if they were having to play against last year's ACC teams and had to again deal with differences in ACC experience.

[JasonEvans]

Much as we may not want it, Maryland will be better than .500. I know they lost some seniors, Strawberry in particular, but that is a ridiculously athletic squad with good coaching. I see Maryland finishing 10-6, perhaps 11-5. Georgia Tech will struggle to see .500 on the other hand. And NCState is going to continue to get better, too. After UNC, I see the next tier being Duke, State and Maryland. Clemson, GTech and Virginia will compete for the other NCAA bids.

Maryland lost a lot more than just Strawberry. Ibekwe and Jones were extremely solid players. Both of them scored in double digits and served a vital need for the team-- Jones as a great outside shooter (44% on 3s) and Ibekwe as a demon on the inside (7.8 rebounds per game and almost 3 blocked shots per game).

Marlyand loses their 1st, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers and the guys who were really the heart of the team. Gist and Vasquez are nice players, but that team revovled around Strawberry and Ibekwe for the most part. Maryland was most dangerous when Jones was hitting from outside.

What's more, the Terps are just not bringing in much in terms of a recruitiung class to make up for those guys. Wing guard Cliff Tucker is the only guy they have coming in who Rivals ranks in the top 100. This is not like Duke or UNC or even Ga Tech reloading with Mickie Dees.

The only way Maryland is .500 in the ACC next year is if several guys who have not shown any signs of being ACC stars in the past suddenly make a real leap forward. It could happen, but does not seem very likely.

-Jason "I could easily see Maryland struggling to something like 6-10 or even 5-11 in the ACC" Evans

[kydevil]

Agreed Jason, it seems like the Acc is very top heavy(Unc & Duke) after these two the talent just isn't there. Ga Tech and Nc State may crack the top 25 throughout the year but I don't see them as talent wise top 25. The Acc is down this year big.

[ACCBBallFan]

Maryland lost a lot more than just Strawberry. Ibekwe and Jones were extremely solid players. Both of them scored in double digits and served a vital need for the team-- Jones as a great outside shooter (44% on 3s) and Ibekwe as a demon on the inside (7.8 rebounds per game and almost 3 blocked shots per game).

Marlyand loses their 1st, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers and the guys who were really the heart of the team. Gist and Vasquez are nice players, but that team revovled around Strawberry and Ibekwe for the most part. Maryland was most dangerous when Jones was hitting from outside.

What's more, the Terps are just not bringing in much in terms of a recruitiung class to make up for those guys. Wing guard Cliff Tucker is the only guy they have coming in who Rivals ranks in the top 100. This is not like Duke or UNC or even Ga Tech reloading with Mickie Dees.

The only way Maryland is .500 in the ACC next year is if several guys who have not shown any signs of being ACC stars in the past suddenly make a real leap forward. It could happen, but does not seem very likely.

-Jason "I could easily see Maryland struggling to something like 6-10 or even 5-11 in the ACC" Evans

Since teams tend to not dramatically have different records than prior year where MD was 10-6, I upgraded MD from 7-9 inoriginal analysis to 8-8.

I think it is safe to say Duke with its net gains improved more than +1 from 8-8 and MD with its net losses digressed by at least (-1) from 10-6.

The team that went 7-0 against these second tier Duke-GA T-NCS-Clemson is at a minimum 50% gone. At least two of the top 4 leaders in every statistical category except FT% is gone and in many cases 3 of the 4.

It is not so much that Duke had quantum improvement as it is that this year's ACC is inferior to last year's for almost every ACC team, except Duke at least broke even net player wise, particularly in the unreplaceable ACC experience category.

Duke also caught a break on who it plays at home versus who it faces on the raod. MD did not fare badly there either with Duke, UVA, BC, VA T and WF twice, Clemson, FSU and NCS at home and tough games with UNC and GA T on road, plus Miami on the road, but that has already been factored in.

I must admit that I never heard of most of the guys MD has picking up the slack. Gary has a good track record of getting results out of people I never heard of, but I suspect it will take a couple of years.

There are about 7 ACC teams, including MD, in the 8-8, plus or minus one category, but I can't see anybody except UNC, Duke and possibly GA T or NCS or Clemson with enough returnees to be approaching the 11-5 or even 10-6 it would take to place 2nd in ACC.

MD should set its sights on being on the inside of the bubble as one of the 3rd-5th ACC teams, or hope Lunardi is right that ACC will get 7 bids. IMO, this would be quite an accomplishment given all the players Gary lost from last year's surprisingly good team.

[ACCBBallFan]

Agreed Jason, it seems like the Acc is very top heavy(Unc & Duke) after these two the talent just isn't there. Ga Tech and Nc State may crack the top 25 throughout the year but I don't see them as talent wise top 25. The Acc is down this year big.

Agree, but NCAA in general is down. It''s probably just a reflection of this past season being the first one where NBA early entrants had to play a year in college. I don;t follow recruiting enough to know how this year's crop of fresh compares to prior or future years.

My guess is because it is not a stellar year, only 5 of the best 9 ACC teams make the dance, but Lunardi is currently showing 7.

For top 3 or 4 in a conference, top of Big East seems to be better with Louisville, Marquette, Georgetown, and possibly Nova, Syr, W VA, UCONN or Pitt being pretty decent.

My guess is this is year of Pac 10 with UCLA, Wash St, USC, Oregon and Stanford being better top 5 than any other conference, and tough year for Zona.

Big 10 (Mich St or Indiana, followed by Wisc/Ohio St), Big 12 (KS by default, then TX and not much else) and SEC (TN by default with KY a longshot, followed by Bama/Arkansas with FL having a year like UCONN did last year) appear relatively light when compared to PAC 10, Big East and even ACC.

So if there are any decent mid-majors they could get in the dance, or ACC may get more than I think.

If ACC does, it will be like last year with a lot of decent teams but few dominant ones.

Seems to be a lot more distance this year between top 25 and top 67.

[gw67]

ACCBBallfan - Your analysis of Maryland is fair. I posted the following several weeks regarding the Terps and they have since added Tucker who should get some playing time at guard/wing.

"Next year will be a transition year for the Terps. They lost a bunch of points, rebounds, blocked shots and steals through graduation. They will be a very young team – 2 seniors, 1 junior, 3 sophs and 5 freshmen (1 redshirt), and Williams will need to find the 8-9 players who play well together. The core of the team will be returnees Gist, Vasquez and Hayes. I expect Bowie to back up Vasquez and Hayes at guard, Milbourne to start at wing, Gregory to back up Gist and some combination of Osby, Dupree and Burney to play center. The team will have good size and will have the players to run on offense and potentially play good defense.

Gist has improved each of the three years he has played. Last year he developed some back-to-the-basket moves to go with a mid-range jump shot and, late in the year, he also showed a nice three-point stroke. I look for him to average 15-18 ppg. As rising sophs, I expect both Vasquez and Hayes to be improved. As frosh they were good ballhandlers and passers, and they were decent on defense. Vasquez is an aggressive player and he should average 12-13 ppg while Hayes should up his points and assists to say, 8-9 ppg and 5-6 apg. All three players should be solid ACC players.

Bowie is similar to many of the support players (Davis, Brickey) that Duke used to get. He is heady, a good ballhandler and passer, is terrific driving to the hoop and he is a good defensive player. He was the point guard and teammate of Durant and Vasquez for Stu Vetter at Montrose Christian. I expect him to be a solid contributor by mid-season.

Milbourne is a 6-7 soph who could not break into last year’s perimeter rotation. The couple of times I saw him, he reminded me of UNC’s Terry as a freshman/soph. He is a good run/jump player, an aggressive rebounder and has the reputation for being a good shooter. He played at Oak Hill and was considered a good prospect. He is probably the biggest question mark on next year’s team.

Osby surprised many last year and had several good games off the bench. He may begin the season as the starting center but he is undersized and I suspect that Dupree will play a bunch of minutes as will Burney. Dupree is the Terps center of the future and is compared to Lonnie Baxter as a freshman while Burney has a reputation as an outstanding shot blocker.

If the Terps were in the MVC, I would predict that they would be one of the top three teams and have an outside chance at an NCAA bid. Alas, they play in the ACC. Even with a weakened ACC and a favorable schedule, I expect them to finish in the bottom middle (6-8). I don’t see this as bad trend. In 2008-9, I would expect them to improve."

gw67

[just_wondering]

If Maryland was desperate and could only rely on Gist, Vasquez, Hayes, Osby and Landon Milborne with Dave Neal as a sub they would still be a decent team capable of beating any other team in the conference except UNC. Osby fits into the flex much better than Ibekwe did. Gist continues to improve and could easily end up first or second team All ACC this year. Hayes and Vasquez are outstanding guards and the drop off between Mike Jones and Eric Hayes will be minor. But the Terps have a shot blocking redshirt freshman in Jerome Burney and five sleeper recruits. Between Milborne, Burney and the freshman coach Williams will find at least two outstanding players to complement Gist, Hayes and Vasquez. More than anybody Gist, Hayes and Vasquez brought the passion to win back to the program.

[gw67]

Welcome back j_w. I've missed your posts on the Terps. I agree with much of what you said although I think next year will be a rebuilding year.

I suspect that the Terps will be a good defensive team by the second half of the season but will experience games where they find it difficult to score. The keys will be (1) to find the right 4-5 players to complement the returnees and (2) outside shooting. The latter will depend on improvement by Vasquez, more 3-point shots by Hayes and Gist, and the development of Milborne. Both Hayes and Gist are excellent outside shooters and they need to look for their shots within the offense,

I agree that Gist should be one of the top players in the ACC next year. The time he spends trying out for the Pan Am team should, like Scheyer and Nelson, benefit his play next year. I heard or read that Vasquez will be a member of the Argentina team. Do you know for sure? He doesn't need an infusion of confidence but playing against better, more experienced players, should help him as well.

gw67

[just_wondering]

I have no information on Vasquez.

I think that the three leaders of the team have the right amount of passion that they will set the right tone. Everybody else including the walk on Jason McAlpin have every incentive to work themselves into the rotation. The one gnawing disappointment last year was the inability to win on the road in the former Big East Arenas. I think that the Terps will rectify that problem this year. They were 0-3 , all on the road, against BC, Miami and Va Tech. But the team and the schedule will be different this year. If they can stay ahead of the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech they will be a big factor this year

[DukeBlood]

My guess is this is year of Pac 10 with UCLA, Wash St, USC, Oregon and Stanford being better top 5 than any other conference, and tough year for Zona.


Do you really think Oregon will be that good? I mean they lost the heart and soul of that tema in Aaron Brooks. I honestly believe we seen the VERY VERY BEST of Wash. St. and i dont believe they can perform to that level again(im sure they will prove me wrong). Even though Wash. loses Hawes they still have alot of good players left and should be a greatly improved squad.

Anyway, I agree with most of your thoughts on the ACC. Even maryland. I just dont see how G-Tech will be 2nd tier... Maybe 3rd. Sure they have some decent athletes.. but that doesnt mean they will be great.

PS: If Duke wins a title soon i will have my first victory cigar!

[mapei]

Is Duke stuck with playing Maryland twice a year until the end of time? I don't understand that compared to, say, Wake or NC State, both more obvious longtime rivals. Maryland was only a "real" rival back during the Juan Dixon years, and that was because we and they were both so good. But there's not much there long-term.

Is the problem that Maryland just doesn't have a natural rival, so we're it by default? I'm sick of it.

Bring back the old pre-expansion ACC schedule!

[pfrduke]

They were 0-3 , all on the road, against BC, Miami and Va Tech.

Two minor corrections, both involving Miami. The regular season loss to Miami was at Maryland, not at Miami. Also, with the loss to Miami in the ACCT, the Terps actually went 0-4 against the former Big East.

[kydevil]

Is Duke stuck with playing Maryland twice a year until the end of time? I don't understand that compared to, say, Wake or NC State, both more obvious longtime rivals. Maryland was only a "real" rival back during the Juan Dixon years, and that was because we and they were both so good. But there's not much there long-term.

Is the problem that Maryland just doesn't have a natural rival, so we're it by default? I'm sick of it.

Bring back the old pre-expansion ACC schedule!

Well we did lose to Maryland both times last year. I mean we don't dominate the series so why not keep playing them?

[duke2x]

I think you could make a case for any order of finish for teams 3-11. I reviewed the schedules before doing these.

1. UNC 14-2.
2. Duke 11-5.
3. NCSU 9-7.
4. UVA 9-7. (Would be 11th if Singletary left.)
5. Clemson 8-8. (Schedule knocked them down a little.)
6. FSU 8-8. (Schedule knocked them down a little.)
7. MD 8-8.
8. BC 8-8.
9. GT 7-9.
10. Wake 6-10.
11. UM 5-11.
12. VT 3-13.

[duke2x]

Is Duke stuck with playing Maryland twice a year until the end of time?...Bring back the old pre-expansion ACC schedule! Random gossip suggests they were promised this in exchange for supporting expansion. I would much rather play State twice, but I expect the "primary partner" status to continue indefinitely.

[whereinthehellami]

ACCBBALLFAN, nice post, your posts are usually informative.

It looks like every team outside of UNC has significant holes to fill. Leadership, experience, and scheduling should provide the "tilt" for alot of the teams in the logjam.

It seems like every year one team suprises the conference. Who will be the team this year?

[mapei]

Well we did lose to Maryland both times last year. I mean we don't dominate the series so why not keep playing them?

To improve our record?

[whereinthehellami]

UNC 13-3 (@Clemson, @UVA, @Duke)
Duke 11-5
Clemson 10-6
NCSU 10-6
MD 9-7
UVA 9-7
VT 9-7
GT 6-10
Miami 6-10
FSU 6-10
BC 4-12
Wake 3-13

Its definately going to be a down year for the ACC. Alot of teams have some pretty big holes to fill and some teams are going to be the weakest they have been in years.

11 wins for Duke seems high but the other teams have as many holes to fill without as many options to plug those holes.

The schedule is going to be a really big factor for young teams like VT, who I think has the potential to be a suprise team but they need to have their easier opponents up front while they settle in on an optimum rotation. Clemson will feast on some of these young teams trying to settle on rotations. I also think that NCSU is heading in the right direction despite their PG issues.

[kydevil]

To improve our record?


I don't mind playing them even if in some cases it may hurt our record. They play a physical style that may help us down the road in the tourny.

[whereinthehellami]

I see some of you guys have BC and Wake winning like 8 games or so. What am I missing? Both of those teams lost a bunch, Wake (Visser, Drum) and BC (Dudley, Williams, and Marshall). BC didn't add anything while Wake added Teague and Johnson but thats not worth 8 or so games. Do you guys know something that I don't know?

[JasonEvans]

What am I missing that a lot of folks seem to think that Virginia will be above .500 in the ACC next year? They played waaay above their heads last season thanks to the most incredibly favorable schedule ever and they lost JR Reynolds and Jason Cain and don't really have any replacements coming in (unless I missed a recruit or transfer). Their only recruit of note is 6-4 wing Jeff Jones who may be able to score but is not going to be a strong defender (people may overlook it, but Reynolds was a very strong defender and that helped UVA a ton last season).

Do folks thing Singletary is that great? Do they think Diane is going to make "the leap" forward and be a consistent player? Do they feel that Mikalauskas and/or Joseph and/or Soroye will be any kind of post presence? I mean, how is this team going to get a rebound?!?!

I've got UVA pegged at about 6-10-- unless I am really missing something (and it would not be the first time that happened).

-Jason "no way I see UVA finishing ahead of Duke, UNC, Clemson, NCState, or Ga Tech" Evans

[mgtr]

If, per the above posts, we beat UNC at Cameron, then I am betting Duke goes 12-4 at a minimum, maybe better. Obviously, wins on the road are hard to come by, but I am saying 8-0 at home, 4-4 on the road at a minimum.
If you accuse me of being optimistic, so be it. I have a great deal of faith in Coach K.

[whereinthehellami]

What am I missing that a lot of folks seem to think that Virginia will be above .500 in the ACC next year? They played waaay above their heads last season thanks to the most incredibly favorable schedule ever and they lost JR Reynolds and Jason Cain and don't really have any replacements coming in (unless I missed a recruit or transfer). Their only recruit of note is 6-4 wing Jeff Jones who may be able to score but is not going to be a strong defender (people may overlook it, but Reynolds was a very strong defender and that helped UVA a ton last season).

Do folks thing Singletary is that great? Do they think Diane is going to make "the leap" forward and be a consistent player? Do they feel that Mikalauskas and/or Joseph and/or Soroye will be any kind of post presence? I mean, how is this team going to get a rebound?!?!

I've got UVA pegged at about 6-10-- unless I am really missing something (and it would not be the first time that happened).

-Jason "no way I see UVA finishing ahead of Duke, UNC, Clemson, NCState, or Ga Tech" Evans

I think that while UVA has holes that they are in better shape than some of the other teams with significant holes. Singletary has a shot at 1st team ALL-ACC. Overall UVA has a pretty athletic team and I can see both Dianne and Joseph stepping up their games and averaging double figures in PPG. Their starting line-up should feature 3 seniors and 2 juniors, which is alot of experience for a team in the ACC next year. While rebounding will be a pretty big issue, it will be an issue for some other teams also. I wouldn't mind seeing Singler take either Mikalauskas or Soroye to school though.

[The Gordog]

I don't mind playing them even if in some cases it may hurt our record. They play a physical style that may help us down the road in the tourny.

I don't like playing MD twice. Gary's flex is designed specifically to defeat our M2M (or is it the flex defence designed to stop our motion offense?) Either way he has an unhealthy obsession with Duke.

[riverside6]

I think that while UVA has holes that they are in better shape than some of the other teams with significant holes. Singletary has a shot at 1st team ALL-ACC. Overall UVA has a pretty athletic team and I can see both Dianne and Joseph stepping up their games and averaging double figures in PPG. Their starting line-up should feature 3 seniors and 2 juniors, which is alot of experience for a team in the ACC next year. While rebounding will be a pretty big issue, it will be an issue for some other teams also. I wouldn't mind seeing Singler take either Mikalauskas or Soroye to school though.

I'm a big fan of the UVA freshman class from a season ago. I think Tat, Harris, and Tucker are all nice players that you will see contribute quite a bit next season. The fact is UVA has a star in Singletary and some nice complimentary talent in Joseph, Diane, Tucker, Tat, and Harris. To me that is enough to get 6-8 wins. If anyone steps up and plays at a higher level, then UVA could rise above .500 in the ACC.

[mapei]

In answer to the question, "is Singletary that good?" I offer a yes. And he doesn't just have a "shot" at 1st team all-ACC; he has already been 1st team all-ACC for two years running and it will be a shock if he doesn't make it three. Last year he was second in the ACC in three-point field goals, third in scoring, second in FT percentage, and fifth in assists - and better than any Duke player in any of those categories.

Does that mean U-VA as a team will rank high this year? I don't know; I leave that to the experts. But there isn't any legitimate question about Singletary as an ACC player.

[hondoheel]

I think State has much more talent than Duke, but their point guard situation is EXTREMELY hard to predict. If they can just get better than horrible point play I they they're the ACC's 2nd best team.

[VaDukie]

I think State has much more talent than Duke, but their point guard situation is EXTREMELY hard to predict. If they can just get better than horrible point play I they they're the ACC's 2nd best team.

I just don't see how State's talent matches up to ours. Without Atsur last year, we blew them out in Raleigh. When they had Atsur and we were denied Gerald, we lost in OT. We had several players struggle with injuries and we're bringing in a much better freshmen class. Hickson should be good, and Coster is special, but where do you see the talent that matches up with ours?

[MrBisonDevil]

1. UNC 13-3
2. Duke 12-4

Duke didn’t seem fluid on the court in ’07. Experience is usually the cure. The extra year of experience for our 8 returning players + strong frosh class = Much better Duke team. What ACC team can seriously match up with Duke outside of UNC?

ACC Tourney Finals = Rubbermatch!!!

That's all I have to say. (Dang, I'm pretty nifty at providing insightful analysis! Heh.)

[Classof06]

I just don't see how State's talent matches up to ours. Without Atsur last year, we blew them out in Raleigh. When they had Atsur and we were denied Gerald, we lost in OT. We had several players struggle with injuries and we're bringing in a much better freshmen class. Hickson should be good, and Coster is special, but where do you see the talent that matches up with ours?

I don't think it's that State is more or even as talented than us. But I think they'll give us problems in the sense that their strength will be our currently perceived weakness, and that is frontcourt strength and depth. Obviously it's June and we don't know how Zoubek is going to play come January, but Costner and McCauley gave us trouble last year. You take away McRoberts, give us Singler and give them Hickson, and we still don't quite match up with them down low.

Put it like this, we're 2 quick fouls on Singler, Thomas or Zoubek from having a real dogfight on our hands.

[hondoheel]

VaDukie, you lost your only ACC starting caliber interior player. State returns McCauley and Costner and adds Hickson and Tracy Smith. Duke has a fairly large advantage in the backcourt but I think it's outweighed by their weakness up front.

[VaDukie]

VaDukie, you lost your only ACC starting caliber interior player. State returns McCauley and Costner and adds Hickson and Tracy Smith. Duke has a fairly large advantage in the backcourt but I think it's outweighed by their weakness up front.

Losing McRoberts may be a + for team chemistry; Thomas and Zoubek will have a year in the weight room, we're gaining a much better class, Gerald and Greg will hopefully be healthy...I just think we're a better team.

[whereinthehellami]

VaDukie, you lost your only ACC starting caliber interior player. State returns McCauley and Costner and adds Hickson and Tracy Smith. Duke has a fairly large advantage in the backcourt but I think it's outweighed by their weakness up front.

I really like Hickson and think he could have a shot at ACC freshman of the year if not for how strong the Wolfpack frontcourt already is. McCauley isn't pretty but he is a gamer. Throw in Costner and its tough to see how Hickson will get any time but you don't keep that kind of motor and athletiscm on the bench.

What do you do with their backcourt? Do you just give the ball to Fells and Grant and go with your best players or do you try and develop a serviceable PG (Javi Gonzalez)? Their outside shooting, passing, and ball handling are going to be hard to overcome against teams with strong backcourts.

IMO Duke will struggle against NCSU next year as the style that Lowe employs (isolation sets) will lead to alot of easy baskets. I think teams that play more zones will give NCSU problems scoring, leading to 5 minute droughts, which will in the end mean that NCSU won't surpass Duke in the standings.

[MrBisonDevil]

I eschew the notion of Duke having a "weak frontcourt". IMO, Thomas & Zoobs never had the stage to really shine in '07. They were 7th & 8th on our minutes depth charts; many of those minutes came when McBob needed rest or got into foul trouble.

2006-7 MPG
1 McBob 35mpg
2 Scheyer 34mpg
3 Paulus 33mpg
4 DeMarc 32mpg
5 McClure 22mp
6 Henderson 19mpg
7 Thomas 15mp
8 Zoobs 7mpg
9 Pocius 7mpg

The stage is set: 2008. Both are highly talented. Both are pivotal cogs in '08. I'm not going to call us "frontcourt weak" until I see how they ball with more minutes (20+ mpg) and more focus!

I think Thomas & Zoobs will be two of our impact players in ’08. The spot is open… time to take it! Duke will contend for the #1 or #2 seed in the ACC Tourney based on our front court performers...

[hondoheel]

I'm not sure K will even play Zoubek all that much. If he wants next year's squad to be a running team I could see Zoubek in a Matt Christensen type role. Then you've got a couple of 210 pounders (Thomas and Singler) to play center.

[mgtr]

I'm not sure K will even play Zoubek all that much. If he wants next year's squad to be a running team I could see Zoubek in a Matt Christensen type role. Then you've got a couple of 210 pounders (Thomas and Singler) to play center.

I am guessing that Coach K will structure a team around the players he has, rather than trying to force players into a predetermined mold. On that basis, Zoubek's playing time will be a function of Zoubek. If he can rebound and throw the quick outlet, the team can run for sure. If he can make even a few shots without travelling, the other team will have to guard him. That might be enough right there. And he runs the floor very well for a big man.
I have posted elsewhere that I think it will take a good bit of time for the shape of this team to show up, and that a lot of players will get a lot of PT early on.
Come on, November, hurry up!

[whereinthehellami]

I'm not sure K will even play Zoubek all that much. If he wants next year's squad to be a running team I could see Zoubek in a Matt Christensen type role. Then you've got a couple of 210 pounders (Thomas and Singler) to play center.

I don't think this will be one of the greatest Duke teams ever but its going to be a fun ride. There are alot of options and alot of talented players battling for more playing time. There are some serious question marks for the frontcourt and no clear-cut solutions but Coach K will have a couple of different directions that he can go and that makes the ride interesting. Does Coach K use his bigs (Zoubek is at worse serviceable), opt for small ball (where alot of talent resides), or does he use his old-school Hoosier lineup (Paulus, Scheyer, Neslon, Singler, Zoubek). Boy would the haters come out if he ever uses the old-school Hoosier lineup, they would be fun to watch pass the ball though.

[devildeac]

I am calling you out OZZIE. I have not seen the first Duke will be 16-0 prediction this season in the ACC in this thread yet. Where is 'the paradigm of optimism'? Vacation? Pondering? Fearful to step out on that undefeated edge?
We are waiting....:D

[ACCBBallFan]

I don't think this will be one of the greatest Duke teams ever but its going to be a fun ride. There are alot of options and alot of talented players battling for more playing time. There are some serious question marks for the frontcourt and no clear-cut solutions but Coach K will have a couple of different directions that he can go and that makes the ride interesting. Does Coach K use his bigs (Zoubek is at worse serviceable), opt for small ball (where alot of talent resides), or does he use his old-school Hoosier lineup (Paulus, Scheyer, Neslon, Singler, Zoubek). Boy would the haters come out if he ever uses the old-school Hoosier lineup, they would be fun to watch pass the ball though.

Your so-called old school lineup has the possibility of molding into the 7-8 man rotation by year end. With a couple of substitutions not necessarily all at once (Smith, Lance and IMO Henderson will get starter minutes whether he starts or not), the team can react to most anybody. This would presume McClure, Pocius and and King end up 9, 10 and 11 which as previously pointed out is too early to tell.

Paulus til he's ready to drop or is getting eaten up on defense, then Smith (or Scheyer)

Scheyer, Nelson, Singler and Henderson each playing about 30 minutes.

Zoubek and Lance if they can each average 20 min without fouling out, else Singler or King in emergency, with McClure backfilling at forward for Singler.

But if Marty was playing injured most of last season, he may compete and change the mix, or if King is the gunner but can play adequate defense ...

As you say, and I parenthetically add, "Coach K will have (more than) a couple of different directions that he can go and that makes the ride." interesting.

[MrBisonDevil]

The thing Duke has over 98% of NCAA teams is TOP TALENT PLAYERS. Our roster, top-to-bottom (incl Big Men), is more talented that 98% of all NCAA teams. I can't diss our talent if we keep on recruiting the way we do...

Our issue seems to be (#1) finding the right combo/synergy of players on the floor, (#2) players knowing the Coach K system & player roles and (#3) having the 'Heart', 'Determination' and 'Drive' to take over a game with pride.

The first two issues are usually corrected with time, practice & maturity. Usually. The last issue (#3) is intangible and it’s based on the individual and/or team on-court leader...

Our 8 returning players will have checked off time, practice & maturity. Though the level of development in those areas is to be determined (but assured to be greater than prior year). 'Heart', 'Determination' and 'Drive' can NOT be determined until we hit the floor.

Regardless, Duke will be much better in '07-'08. ACC 12-4

[whereinthehellami]

The thing Duke has over 98% of NCAA teams is TOP TALENT PLAYERS. Our roster, top-to-bottom (incl Big Men), is more talented that 98% of all NCAA teams. I can't diss our talent if we keep on recruiting the way we do...

Our issue seems to be (#1) finding the right combo/synergy of players on the floor, (#2) players knowing the Coach K system & player roles and (#3) having the 'Heart', 'Determination' and 'Drive' to take over a game with pride.


I agree about the talent. I would add athletiscm (lateral speed,etc) as issue #4. I think a number of our players had issues with this last year. Of course isues #1-3 can mask issue #4 if they are addressed over the summer.

[Mcluhan]

I agree about the talent. I would add athletiscm (lateral speed,etc) as issue #4. I think a number of our players had issues with this last year. Of course isues #1-3 can mask issue #4 if they are addressed over the summer.

We've had Micky D's AA's for so long now that I know longer cite that in any conversation about the abilities of incoming players. And I think to some extent, the tail might wag the dog: if he's heavily recruited by Duke, he should probably be named to the Mickey D's team, right? Well, as we've seen, not necessarily.

But judging high school talent is an inexact science.