This Week in the ACC - 1/24-1/30

[pfrduke]

For the time being, the non-conference records will be absent from this post - still getting caught up from spending several weeks sans hoops. Lots of clustering in the ACC standings so far (not terribly surprising, since we're just 5 games in), so this week will be a lot about teams trying to separate themselves from what is a very decidedly unremarkable pack. Let's take a look at the week ahead.

Monday was dark.

Tuesday brings us the battle of the Techs in Atlanta will NCSU hits the road to play at Clemson. The winner of the latter game will be sitting at .500 in conference after 6 games, which is a decent spot for either squad. As for the former game, this is exactly the type of game Virginia Tech has lost in recent years and exactly the type of game they can't afford to lose this year if they want to avoid being stuck on the outside of the NCAAs looking in. Georgia Tech, for what it's worth, has won its last 2 games by a combined 55 points.

[82]Georgia Tech hosts [22] Virginia Tech
[41]Clemson hosts [85]NC State

Wednesday puts the Heels back in action for the first time in over a week to take on a Miami team whose frantic comeback on Sunday in Raleigh fell just short. The Hurricanes have not lived up to the preseason hype, but they will be dangerous at home. Miami definitely has the better guards, but a lot will ride on who wins the battle inside between Zeller and Reggie Johnson. A loss for Miami all but erases NCAA hopes; a win for UNC keeps them above the middle-of-the-pack fray.

[68]Miami hosts [23]North Carolina

Thursday sends BC into Cameron where the Devils will get another defensively challenged opponent against whom they can try to get their offensive kinks worked out. On the other side of the ball, BC has by far the most efficient offense that Duke has played against this year - indeed, it's currently ranked as slightly more efficient than Duke's on the season (even after the 51 point performance against FSU); defending BC will be a good test for the Devils' defense. Maryland also travels to Virginia trying to keep the momentum of this weekend's close win over Clemson going. Like the NC State-Clemson game, the winner will come out of this one at .500 in the conference, the loser stuck at 2-4.

[2]Duke hosts [63]Boston College
[105]Virginia hosts [21]Maryland

Friday is dark.

Saturday sends FSU to Clemson - a win here would bode extremely well for FSU's staying power at the top of the ACC standings. NCSU travels to Chapel Hill to take on the Heels - if they can steal two road wins and get to 4-3, they'll be in ok shape heading down the stretch (still not a lot of room for error, though); if the Pack lose both and end up at 12-9, 2-5, they'll be checking their NIT bubble status. Finally, Virginia travels to Wake in what has to be one of the 2 or 3 best chances for the Deacs to steal a conference win (and Virginia still checks in as a 75% favorite).

[41]Clemson hosts [35]Florida State
[23]North Carolina hosts [85]NC State
[245]Wake Forest hosts [105]Virginia

Sunday Duke travels to MSG to take on St. John's (in the middle of a brutal scheduling stretch: through the Duke game, their 8 most recent games will have been Georgetown, @Notre Dame, Syracuse, Notre Dame, @Louisville, Cincinnati, @Georgetown, Duke). Closer to home, Virginia Tech hosts Miami and Maryland travels to Georgia Tech.

[2]Duke at [54]St. John's
[22]Virginia Tech hosts [65]Miami
[82]Georgia Tech hosts [21]Maryland

[HCheek37]

For the 3 teams ranked similarly by KenPom, this is a huge week.

VA Tech has a winnable road game and a home game they should win. They are 70% and 86% likely to win according to kenpom. Those 2 wins would vault then to 5-2 in conference and 15-5 overall, and 11-1 in their last 12. Definitely a big week for Seth and his kids.

Maryland has two home games against feisty ACC competitors and need to snap out of their current 2-3 stretch. They are 77% and 70% favorites this week and would be sitting at 14-7 (4-3) with 2 wins. Terps need wins or Gary will be sweating on March 13.

UNC battles Miami before hosting NC State this week. Two wins here would put the Heels at 5-1 in conference and 15-5 overall. Pretty important week for Roy if he wants to worry about seeding instead of getting in on Selection Sunday.

My predictions for the week:

Va Tech > Ga Tech
NC State > Clemson
Miami > UNC
Duke > BC
Maryland > Virginia
Clemson > Flor St
UNC > NC State
Virginia > Wake
Duke > St Johns
Va Tech > Miami
Maryland > Ga Tech

[CDu]

NC State got off to a big lead to start their game at Clemson. They were up 31-12. It's now 32-27. I can't remember a game in which the team with the lead at the half was down to only two timeouts, but that's likely to be the case in this one.

[CDu]

State is trying hard to seal their fate for the season. They were up 31-12 on Clemson in Littlejohn. They proceeded to give back nearly all of that lead in a 17-1 run toward the end of the first half. And now, they're down 5 with under 4 to go and Clemson's at the line. Just a real collapse after a hot start.

[davekay1971]

State is trying hard to seal their fate for the season. They were up 31-12 on Clemson in Littlejohn. They proceeded to give back nearly all of that lead in a 17-1 run toward the end of the first half. And now, they're down 5 with under 4 to go and Clemson's at the line. Just a real collapse after a hot start.

An incredible collapse. They nearly lost a 17 point lead at home against Miami, now they've fallen apart completely against Clemson. With their young team, this is the kind of loss that will really hurt whatever confidence State had left and probably seals Lowe's fate. Hopefully the team doesn't completely give up on him, because there is talent there that can grow for next season. But I have no doubt it will be under a different coach.

[-jk]

Yeesh - after running out to a 19 point lead at Clemson, State falls completely apart and chokes it away, 60-50.

-jk

[Klemnop]

Yeesh - after running out to a 19 point lead at Clemson, State falls completely apart and chokes it away, 60-50.

-jk

I prefer, "After sleepwalking through the first 14 minutes, Clemson woke up and hammered NCState the way that they should have."

This is the first time I've watched NCState play this year so I have no idea if they are easy or hard to defend. But the defense that Clemson played for the last 26 minutes of the game was...well, I lack for an adequate adjective. State had 32 with 6:00 to play in the first half and managed only 18 points over the next 26 minutes. Within that stretch Clemson held State to 8 points between the 17:50 mark of the 2nd half and the 2:48 mark.

Klem

[Bob Green]

They were up 31-12.

Wow! Clemson outscores NC State 48-19 to go from 19 down to up 10. That is a monumental collapse for the Wolfpack. Perhaps it is a season defining collapse. I now give State about a 1% chance of beating Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday. Sidney Lowe has got to go and I seriously wonder if he'll survive the season?

[JasonEvans]

I am gonna feel insane for doing this but... I am here to defend the State loss tonight.

Folks, this was a road game. Yes, State got hammered late, but losing on the road (especially in Littlejohn) is just not that big a sin. State may be 2-4 in the conference right now, but their only home loss is to Duke. They still have very winnable road games left at Wake and Virginia. If they hold serve at home and win those road games, they would go 9-7 in the conference and, I believe, they would save Sid's job.

This is a young team, a team that has a lot of talent. It is not impossible to imagine that it would come together over the next couple weeks and be a much better team in February than they have been in January.

While I would love to see them put in a big effort at UNC this weekend, I believe the key game -- the one that may very well determine Sid's fate -- comes next Wednesday when they host Va Tech. A win there and State could begin to right the ship. Of course, it will be tough to gain momentum off that win because they come to Duke just a few days later. Still, I see that game as the potential turning point in State's season.

Now, all that said, I want to conclude by saying that I doubt State will turn it around under Sid. I think they will lose more games at home and I think they will not win much on the road (maybe Wake, but not Virginia).

I further think the powers that be at State will recognize that NOW IS THE TIME for a new coach after this season. Sid's recruiting will be part of his downfall as State will recognize that their talent base makes the job a bit more attractive and may allow them to lure a higher profile coach.

-Jason "well, that may be the most I have written about a second-tier ACC program EVER ;) " Evans

[Duvall]

-Jason "well, that may be the most I have written about a second-tier ACC program EVER ;) " Evans

Second-tier?

[devildeac]

Wow! Clemson outscores NC State 48-19 to go from 19 down to up 10. That is a monumental collapse for the Wolfpack. Perhaps it is a season defining collapse. I now give State about a 1% chance of beating Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday. Sidney Lowe has got to go and I seriously wonder if he'll survive the season?

1%? You are being WAY over-optimistic.:rolleyes:

Has firesidney.com been created yet?

[loran16]

I am gonna feel insane for doing this but... I am here to defend the State loss tonight.

Folks, this was a road game. Yes, State got hammered late, but losing on the road (especially in Littlejohn) is just not that big a sin. State may be 2-4 in the conference right now, but their only home loss is to Duke. They still have very winnable road games left at Wake and Virginia. If they hold serve at home and win those road games, they would go 9-7 in the conference and, I believe, they would save Sid's job.

This is a young team, a team that has a lot of talent. It is not impossible to imagine that it would come together over the next couple weeks and be a much better team in February than they have been in January.

While I would love to see them put in a big effort at UNC this weekend, I believe the key game -- the one that may very well determine Sid's fate -- comes next Wednesday when they host Va Tech. A win there and State could begin to right the ship. Of course, it will be tough to gain momentum off that win because they come to Duke just a few days later. Still, I see that game as the potential turning point in State's season.

Now, all that said, I want to conclude by saying that I doubt State will turn it around under Sid. I think they will lose more games at home and I think they will not win much on the road (maybe Wake, but not Virginia).

I further think the powers that be at State will recognize that NOW IS THE TIME for a new coach after this season. Sid's recruiting will be part of his downfall as State will recognize that their talent base makes the job a bit more attractive and may allow them to lure a higher profile coach.

-Jason "well, that may be the most I have written about a second-tier ACC program EVER ;) " Evans

Here's the problem. NC State SHOULD have have lost to Clemson. But when you go up 19 points on someone, the equation changes....all NC State had to be was 19 points better than Clemson for 26 minutes on the Road. THEY SHOULD BE. Instead, they were 29 points worse. That's utterly insane.

[Dev11]

1%? You are being WAY over-optimistic.:rolleyes:

Has firesidney.com been created yet?

www.firesidneylowe.com is quite simple and quite hilarious.

[pfrduke]

this is exactly the type of game Virginia Tech has lost in recent years and exactly the type of game they can't afford to lose this year if they want to avoid being stuck on the outside of the NCAAs looking in.

Georgia Tech 72, Virginia Tech 57. The Jackets (who have lost to Siena, Kennesaw State, and Charlotte, among others) are 3-0 at home in conference, with an average margin of victory of 23 points. They're also 0-3 on the road with an average margin of defeat of 15 points. What a schizophrenic team.

[Bob Green]

I just took a look at the box score and Georgia Tech doubled up Virginia Tech in the 2nd half 36-18. This illustrates the fact a team must bring it for all 40 minutes.

[pfrduke]

I just took a look at the box score and Georgia Tech doubled up Virginia Tech in the 2nd half 36-18. This illustrates the fact a team must bring it for all 40 minutes.

Indeed. The two road teams scored 16 and 18 points in their second halves tonight, each turning halftime leads into double-digit defeats.

[GLTBD]

I hope no one is overlooking the Boston College game tomorrow in Cameron. I did not see a pregame thread posted yet. I apologize If I missed it.

[loran16]

UNC Survives Miami thanks to heroics by Harrison Barnes tying and making the game winning 3. UNC was about to turn the ball over before the game winning shot....and then a Miami defender fell down, leaving Barnes wide open.

Sigh.

[DukieInBrasil]

the Holes down the Canes in Miami. Miami blew a 16 pt 1st half lead and the game was locked in a tense back and forth with all sorts of ties and lead changes. The Canes just choked it away. Credit to the Holes defense, which was surprisingly feistier than I had anticipated.
Don't look now but it looks like HB is learning how to be a big-time player. His overall numbers were not spectacular but he got some crucial 2nd half steals and he hit several really huge buckets, including most of the Holes' final points.

[gw67]

I watched both the Maryland and the Duke games last night on two TVs. I know, the wife thinks I'm crazy. The Terps game started about an hour before the Devils game. Normally, I turn off the sound when there are two games going on simultaneously because my old brain can't process the input fast enough. Last night, I turned off the sound to the Maryland game early because the play-by-play and color were taking away from a boring beginning to the game. Ex-Virginia player, Junior Burroughs, was one of two color men and, to be charitable, he has a long way to go.

The Duke-BC game is discussed in another thread. IMO, BC lucked out beating Maryland on the road and that win has convinced a bunch of folks that they are pretty good. I see them settling back into the pack although Donahue may be able to get enough out of them to reach the NCAAT.

The Maryland-Virginia game was close for a half but the Terps offense came alive in the second half and combined with their excellent perimeter defense led to a rout. The game featured probably career games for two unsung players - Sene for Virginia and Bowie for Maryland. In addition, Maryland followed up a good effort against Clemson with a final ten minutes in which they did not unravel as they have done several times this year. If they had played a little better at the end of three of their games, they would have defeated BC, NOVA and Temple. I feel bad for the Cavs. They are young and without Scott, they rely on a four guard offense.

There are some interesting games this weekend:

FSU @ Clemson - Clemson played well against Maryland and came from far behind to win their last game. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers pull an upset.

UVA @ Wake - This might be a tough game to watch and I suspect that the Wake players see this as a win at home. Should be close but I think Virginis will get a win on the road.

Miami @ Virginia Tech - Tech is undermanned but they play well at home. They should win against a Miami team that is sinking fast.

Maryland @ Georgia Tech - If the Terps continue to play tough defense and can get good play from their freshmen point guards, I expect them to get another road win. If the perimeter players retrogress to their pre-Clemson ways then GT will probably pull out a win. It will be interesting to see if Williams has a better game.

gw67

[loran16]

I watched both the Maryland and the Duke games last night on two TVs. I know, the wife thinks I'm crazy. The Terps game started about an hour before the Devils game. Normally, I turn off the sound when there are two games going on simultaneously because my old brain can't process the input fast enough. Last night, I turned off the sound to the Maryland game early because the play-by-play and color were taking away from a boring beginning to the game. Ex-Virginia player, Junior Burroughs, was one of two color men and, to be charitable, he has a long way to go.

The Duke-BC game is discussed in another thread. IMO, BC lucked out beating Maryland on the road and that win has convinced a bunch of folks that they are pretty good. I see them settling back into the pack although Donahue may be able to get enough out of them to reach the NCAAT.

The Maryland-Virginia game was close for a half but the Terps offense came alive in the second half and combined with their excellent perimeter defense led to a rout. The game featured probably career games for two unsung players - Sene for Virginia and Bowie for Maryland. In addition, Maryland followed up a good effort against Clemson with a final ten minutes in which they did not unravel as they have done several times this year. If they had played a little better at the end of three of their games, they would have defeated BC, NOVA and Temple. I feel bad for the Cavs. They are young and without Scott, they rely on a four guard offense.

There are some interesting games this weekend:

FSU @ Clemson - Clemson played well against Maryland and came from far behind to win their last game. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers pull an upset.

UVA @ Wake - This might be a tough game to watch and I suspect that the Wake players see this as a win at home. Should be close but I think Virginis will get a win on the road.

Miami @ Virginia Tech - Tech is undermanned but they play well at home. They should win against a Miami team that is sinking fast.

Maryland @ Georgia Tech - If the Terps continue to play tough defense and can get good play from their freshmen point guards, I expect them to get another road win. If the perimeter players retrogress to their pre-Clemson ways then GT will probably pull out a win. It will be interesting to see if Williams has a better game.

gw67

I'd give GT a good chance of the upset, having blown out UNC, VT, and Wake (okay that's not impressive) at home, but lost all 3 ACC games on the road. Pomeroy gives GT a 37% chance at the upset in fact, despite the fact he's weighing in their bad games against Kennesaw State and co.

Clemson also should be a team who could likely pull an upset, as FSU hasn't really been tested away from Tallahasssee, and they did lose to VT on the road.

[gw67]

I'd give GT a good chance of the upset, having blown out UNC, VT, and Wake (okay that's not impressive) at home, but lost all 3 ACC games on the road. Pomeroy gives GT a 37% chance at the upset in fact, despite the fact he's weighing in their bad games against Kennesaw State and co.

A Terps loss at GT would not surprise me. By the way, the Terps' defensive and offensive play at Virginia last night moved them up to 14th in Pomeroy ratings. According to his number crunching, GT has 32% of upset and he still predicts MD at 10-6 in ACC. I think that this is optimistic. I see a best case of 9-7 at this time. Losing two at home (and a 3rd next week vs Duke) is too mucn to overcome.

gw67

[wilson]

A Terps loss at GT would not surprise me. By the way, the Terps' defensive and offensive play at Virginia last night moved them up to 14th in Pomeroy ratings. According to his number crunching, GT has 32% of upset and he still predicts MD at 10-6 in ACC. I think that this is optimistic. I see a best case of 9-7 at this time. Losing two at home (and a 3rd next week vs Duke) is too mucn to overcome.

gw67I'd be pretty surprised. To me, this is just one of those games where Maryland is simply the better team and the far more solid program overall. The fan pulse at Tech is beyond apathetic by now, and they're approaching flat-out dysfunction. The clamor is really growing in Atlanta, and I wonder how much longer Hewitt can hold things together. Maryland might not win on Sunday, but they absolutely should. A loss might well be crippling to their tourney hopes.

[jv001]

I'd be pretty surprised. To me, this is just one of those games where Maryland is simply the better team and the far more solid program overall. The fan pulse at Tech is beyond apathetic by now, and they're approaching flat-out dysfunction. The clamor is really growing in Atlanta, and I wonder how much longer Hewitt can hold things together. Maryland might not win on Sunday, but they absolutely should. A loss might well be crippling to their tourney hopes.

I will be surprised if the twerps lose to Tech because Williams will out coach Hewitt. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Maryland will lose this game. Go Duke!

[CDu]

A Terps loss at GT would not surprise me. By the way, the Terps' defensive and offensive play at Virginia last night moved them up to 14th in Pomeroy ratings. According to his number crunching, GT has 32% of upset and he still predicts MD at 10-6 in ACC. I think that this is optimistic. I see a best case of 9-7 at this time. Losing two at home (and a 3rd next week vs Duke) is too mucn to overcome.

gw67

Ga Tech has some gifted guards/wings who are capable of getting hot and having monster games offensively. They seem to play much better at home than on the road. Maryland should win, but perimeter play remains a question mark for the Terps. I would certainly not be shocked if Tech won. I still think Pomeroy may be overrating Maryland in his calculations. I think they're better than Ga Tech on average, but both teams are pretty inconsistent so either team winning would not be at all shocking.

I agree with you in regard to their likely ACC record at the end of the year. They have some very tough games still to play: vs us, at Va Tech, and at UNC. If they lose those three as expected, then they can't slip up against anyone else and still get to 10 wins. That means they have to win at Ga Tech, at BC, at Miami, and vs FSU along with likely bunnies against UVa and Wake. I don't see them winning all four of those tough games, and I'm not convinced that they'll win versus us, Va Tech, or UNC.

[pfrduke]

By the way, the Terps' defensive and offensive play at Virginia last night moved them up to 14th in Pomeroy ratings.

I have to admit, I don't quite understand the #14 rating. It appears to derive almost entirely from the fact that their losses have been relatively close - only Virginia Tech beat them by more than 10 - and their wins have been big. But if you take all their top 100 games, they're 3-7 and have been outscored by 26 points. Their margin mostly comes from sub-100 teams - they've beaten every single one of those opponents by double digits, including 7 by at least 20 and 5 by at least 30. But to me, those two facts don't add up to the #14 team. It seems like a bit of an anomalous result.

[gw67]

I have to admit, I don't quite understand the #14 rating. It appears to derive almost entirely from the fact that their losses have been relatively close - only Virginia Tech beat them by more than 10 - and their wins have been big. But if you take all their top 100 games, they're 3-7 and have been outscored by 26 points. Their margin mostly comes from sub-100 teams - they've beaten every single one of those opponents by double digits, including 7 by at least 20 and 5 by at least 30. But to me, those two facts don't add up to the #14 team. It seems like a bit of an anomalous result.

pfr,

I understand where you are coming from. Frankly, I'm not that big on relying on "efficiencies" but they are what they are. I've preferred Sagarin for many years. Sagarin ranks them 38th. My two cents on why they are rated highly by Pomeroy without independently going through his numbers - first, they are a very good defensive team. Pomeroy ranks them 2nd, whatever. Second, they have played four top 20 teams and played each of them to close results. They are 2-6 against top 50 teams and five of the losses were close. Quite frankly, they should have won three of those games and could have won the fourth but, after playing well for 30-35 minutes, they couldn't get the job done at the end of the game.

IMO, they are much closer to the 38th rated team rather than the 14th rated but Pomeroy ratings are primarily based on how well you play and, as you pointed out, the Terps have been competitive against the good teams and beaten up on the no-so-good teams.

gw67

[CDu]

I have to admit, I don't quite understand the #14 rating. It appears to derive almost entirely from the fact that their losses have been relatively close - only Virginia Tech beat them by more than 10 - and their wins have been big. But if you take all their top 100 games, they're 3-7 and have been outscored by 26 points. Their margin mostly comes from sub-100 teams - they've beaten every single one of those opponents by double digits, including 7 by at least 20 and 5 by at least 30. But to me, those two facts don't add up to the #14 team. It seems like a bit of an anomalous result.

Maryland's resume is a real test of whether Pomeroy's math does or doesn't really reflect the quality of the team. Maryland has all of one strong win: a 62-39 beatdown of Penn State at Penn State. Aside from that, their only other decent win is a 2-pt win at home over Clemson. Their only other win over a team in the top-100 is a one-point squeaker over CoC (#98) at home. They've played some tough teams, but they lost all of those games. Close losses to Pitt, Illinois, @Villanova, and @Duke are certainly acceptable for a #14 rating. But they also lost to Temple (in a virtual home game), BC at home, and were blown out by Va Tech. A true #14 team should probably have won at least 2 of those 3 games and should have beaten CoC by more. It is those 4 games which are the outliers on the resume that make me question their rating. Everything else seems to fit.

Now, I guess one could say that those are just the extreme outliers in what otherwise suggests a #14 rating. If that's true, I'd expect the wins to start piling up soon. But we'll find out in the near future whether or not Maryland is really worthy of Pomeroy's ranking, or whether they just are a function of one of the limitations of the math. Despite being a big fan of Pomeroy, I'm inclined to believe that it's the latter. But we'll see.

[loran16]

pfr, Pomeroy Rankings indicate the fact that true talent is better seen through the lens of how you win or lose (point differential) than WHETHER you win or lose. If a team loses all its games by a tiny amount but blows out their opponents in their win, almost all the time going forward the team is likely to win more than lose; essentially the losses aren't because of having less talent than opposing teams, but rather some bad bounces going the other way (randomness).

The randomness in Wins and Losses is measured by Pomeroy's "luck" column, which naturally indicates Maryland as having the #324 best luck (aka a top 25 worst luck) ranking. Yikes! The odds are that over the long run their "luck" will regress back to normal, resulting in Maryland starting to win games.

Of course, the long run is more than 30 games, and it's certainly more than the 10-15 games remaining on MD's schedule. So they might not regress back to their #14 ranking in time to matter. But if they played 100 more games, you'd see why they deserve it.

[CDu]

pfr, Pomeroy Rankings indicate the fact that true talent is better seen through the lens of how you win or lose (point differential) than WHETHER you win or lose. If a team loses all its games by a tiny amount but blows out their opponents in their win, almost all the time going forward the team is likely to win more than lose; essentially the losses aren't because of having less talent than opposing teams, but rather some bad bounces going the other way (randomness).

The randomness in Wins and Losses is measured by Pomeroy's "luck" column, which naturally indicates Maryland as having the #324 best luck (aka a top 25 worst luck) ranking. Yikes! The odds are that over the long run their "luck" will regress back to normal, resulting in Maryland starting to win games.

Of course, the long run is more than 30 games, and it's certainly more than the 10-15 games remaining on MD's schedule. So they might not regress back to their #14 ranking in time to matter. But if they played 100 more games, you'd see why they deserve it.

It could be just bad luck, or it could be that there is an intrinsic quality about the Maryland team that allows them to blow out bad teams but not be able to beat better teams. Examples might be mediocre/bad guard play and bad free throw shooting. But as you said, we aren't going to get a sufficient sample size to confirm whether it's luck or not.

[loran16]

It could be just bad luck, or it could be that there is an intrinsic quality about the Maryland team that allows them to blow out bad teams but not be able to beat better teams. Examples might be mediocre/bad guard play and bad free throw shooting. But as you said, we aren't going to get a sufficient sample size to confirm whether it's luck or not.

See pomeroy's blog post earlier this year on this: Winning close games is not an intrinsic skill....(similarly, doing so at home is not skill, and reflects more often than not that the home team is the worse or at best equally matched team). If you have a team lose constantly in close games...that tends to just be bad luck. It's not an indicator of skill at all of that team being unable to win a close game.

Bad FT shooting makes a team play more close games instead of blow people out (as you can't extend the lead). It makes you worse. It doesn't mean you lose more close games, it just means you're a worse team and won't be blowing out opponents. Of course, MD is blowing out some people.

[Indoor66]

See pomeroy's blog post earlier this year on this: Winning close games is not an intrinsic skill....(similarly, doing so at home is not skill, and reflects more often than not that the home team is the worse or at best equally matched team). If you have a team lose constantly in close games...that tends to just be bad luck. It's not an indicator of skill at all of that team being unable to win a close game.

Bad FT shooting makes a team play more close games instead of blow people out (as you can't extend the lead). It makes you worse. It doesn't mean you lose more close games, it just means you're a worse team and won't be blowing out opponents. Of course, MD is blowing out some people.

Sounds to me like he works for the guvment!

[CDu]

See pomeroy's blog post earlier this year on this: Winning close games is not an intrinsic skill....(similarly, doing so at home is not skill, and reflects more often than not that the home team is the worse or at best equally matched team). If you have a team lose constantly in close games...that tends to just be bad luck. It's not an indicator of skill at all of that team being unable to win a close game.

Bad FT shooting makes a team play more close games instead of blow people out (as you can't extend the lead). It makes you worse. It doesn't mean you lose more close games, it just means you're a worse team and won't be blowing out opponents. Of course, MD is blowing out some people.

The problem with this statement is that we don't really have enough of a sample to really know this. It is likely to be bad luck. But there are just too many variables and too few games within a year to really control for this.

As for the free throw shooting, I think it's debatable. One might argue that, against really bad teams (or teams that are way better than you, free throw shooting can largely become irrelevant. If the margin is sufficient, the actual game play can change (teams give up or start playing out of character), which mutes the impact of free throw shooting. In games in which you're more evenly matched, it makes you consistently worse. Hence, at some level, there may not a linear relationship between the the quality of opponent and expected outcome, and there may not be a constant (or linear) effect of poor free throw shooting.

The question is whether there is a linear trend in expected results, and that there is a constant impact of free throw shooting. This is one area which may be relevant for Maryland. They've played a bunch of really bad teams and killed them. They've played several decent teams and lost to them. It's possible that the nonlinearity thing is an issue.

And it may very well also be that it's just luck.

[pfrduke]

pfr, Pomeroy Rankings indicate the fact that true talent is better seen through the lens of how you win or lose (point differential) than WHETHER you win or lose. If a team loses all its games by a tiny amount but blows out their opponents in their win, almost all the time going forward the team is likely to win more than lose; essentially the losses aren't because of having less talent than opposing teams, but rather some bad bounces going the other way (randomness).

I understand this point. And I do think it's significant that Maryland has beaten (badly) the easier opponents on their schedule - that's a measure of their quality. But even discounting wins and losses, Maryland has played 10 games against top 100 opponents - 3 against teams ranked higher than Maryland, and 7 against teams ranked lower than Maryland - and has been outscored by 26 in those games. I would expect the performance numbers of the #14 team to be better than that. Just as a matter of comparison, Illinois (ranked #17) has played 14 games against top 100 opponents - 5 higher ranked, 9 lower ranked - and has outscored those opponents by 54 points.


The randomness in Wins and Losses is measured by Pomeroy's "luck" column, which naturally indicates Maryland as having the #324 best luck (aka a top 25 worst luck) ranking. Yikes! The odds are that over the long run their "luck" will regress back to normal, resulting in Maryland starting to win games.

Well, yes, but that only helps them to a point. They haven't actually been cost many wins this season. They've beaten all the sub-100 teams they've played. Against the top 100, their performance leads to an expected 4.5 wins; they have 3. Would their resume be better at 14-6 or 15-5 than 13-7? Yes. Would it be top 14 worthy? I still say no. Probably closer to the 25-30 range (so maybe I'm over-obsessing about 10 spots, but the difference between 14 and 25 is, to me, a more significant difference than between, say, 75 and 85). Even using Pomeroy's adjusted numbers, their expected total of wins at this point is 14; they're just one win short of that on the season.


Of course, the long run is more than 30 games, and it's certainly more than the 10-15 games remaining on MD's schedule. So they might not regress back to their #14 ranking in time to matter. But if they played 100 more games, you'd see why they deserve it.

I disagree, for basically the reasons above - I don't think that whipping sub-100 teams but being outscored by top-100 teams (most of which are ranked worse than you) merits a #14 ranking. Even if they matched this exact performance over 100 games (i.e., outscoring sub-100 opponents by ~30 a game but being outscored by top-100 opponents by ~3 per game), I'd say they were rated too highly if they ended up at #14.

[loran16]

I understand this point. And I do think it's significant that Maryland has beaten (badly) the easier opponents on their schedule - that's a measure of their quality. But even discounting wins and losses, Maryland has played 10 games against top 100 opponents - 3 against teams ranked higher than Maryland, and 7 against teams ranked lower than Maryland - and has been outscored by 26 in those games. I would expect the performance numbers of the #14 team to be better than that. Just as a matter of comparison, Illinois (ranked #17) has played 14 games against top 100 opponents - 5 higher ranked, 9 lower ranked - and has outscored those opponents by 54 points.



Well, yes, but that only helps them to a point. They haven't actually been cost many wins this season. They've beaten all the sub-100 teams they've played. Against the top 100, their performance leads to an expected 4.5 wins; they have 3. Would their resume be better at 14-6 or 15-5 than 13-7? Yes. Would it be top 14 worthy? I still say no. Probably closer to the 25-30 range (so maybe I'm over-obsessing about 10 spots, but the difference between 14 and 25 is, to me, a more significant difference than between, say, 75 and 85). Even using Pomeroy's adjusted numbers, their expected total of wins at this point is 14; they're just one win short of that on the season.



I disagree, for basically the reasons above - I don't think that whipping sub-100 teams but being outscored by top-100 teams (most of which are ranked worse than you) merits a #14 ranking. Even if they matched this exact performance over 100 games (i.e., outscoring sub-100 opponents by ~30 a game but being outscored by top-100 opponents by ~3 per game), I'd say they were rated too highly if they ended up at #14.

The thing is, you're looking at Pomeroy the wrong way. Pomeroy doesn't care about wins or losses. It only cares about efficiencies and pythag. 15-5 is not #14 worthy, but Pomeroy's rankings don't see 15-5. They see a team with the 14th best pythag in the country, which should indicate that if you played infinity games against every other opponent, Maryland would more clearly be the #14 team in the country.

Note that Pomeroy's numbers aren't perfect...there's a reason they move as results come in. But that's the projection.

[CDu]

The thing is, you're looking at Pomeroy the wrong way. Pomeroy doesn't care about wins or losses. It only cares about efficiencies and pythag. 15-5 is not #14 worthy, but Pomeroy's rankings don't see 15-5. They see a team with the 14th best pythag in the country, which should indicate that if you played infinity games against every other opponent, Maryland would more clearly be the #14 team in the country.

Note that Pomeroy's numbers aren't perfect...there's a reason they move as results come in. But that's the projection.

I agree with your point here, except for the bolded part. For this to be true, you have to assume that Pomeroy's model is correct. In other words, according to Pomeroy's model, Maryland would be the #14 team in the country if there were an infinite number of games played. I think this is the point that pfrduke is contesting - that the flaws in the model are (at least part of) the reason for the discrepancy between Maryland's results and Maryland's Pomeroy rating.

It could be that it's just luck that differentiates between Pomeroy's data and the win/loss record. It could also be that there's something that Pomeroy's model isn't capturing.

[pfrduke]

I think this is the point that pfrduke is contesting - that the flaws in the model are (at least part of) the reason for the discrepancy between Maryland's results and Maryland's Pomeroy rating.

This is sort of my point. There will be anomalies with any model. Based on Maryland's performance this year, regardless of their wins and losses, I think the model is overrating Maryland. I do not think a team that has been collectively outscored by the best 10 opponents they've played (half their schedule), 7 of which are lower ranked, deserves to be ranked #14. If I had to guess, Maryland's overrating comes from a) too much weight given to blowouts against bad teams, and b) enhanced weight given to statistically outlying performances (that is, the fact that Maryland's defense adjusts to second best in the country).*

*I, of course, have no idea how the model is calibrated, so could be completely wrong about these two things.

[CDu]

This is sort of my point. There will be anomalies with any model. Based on Maryland's performance this year, regardless of their wins and losses, I think the model is overrating Maryland. I do not think a team that has been collectively outscored by the best 10 opponents they've played (half their schedule), 7 of which are lower ranked, deserves to be ranked #14. If I had to guess, Maryland's overrating comes from a) too much weight given to blowouts against bad teams, and b) enhanced weight given to statistically outlying performances (that is, the fact that Maryland's defense adjusts to second best in the country).*

*I, of course, have no idea how the model is calibrated, so could be completely wrong about these two things.

I don't know the intricacies of Pomeroy's model. But if it assumes some sort of linear relationship between expected results (i.e., points, not win/loss) and quality of opponent, that may be a flaw. Results may not really have a linear relationship. This is where I could see a potential for flaw. But I of course must caveat that by saying that I don't know his model well enough to say with any certainty.

[loran16]

Obviously it depends upon how the model's accuracy is. I was just trying to wean you away from talking wins and losses.

Pomeroy's model appears to take the actual O and D Efficiencies per each game, adjust it somehow based upon opponent, make an adjustment for home court advantage, and use that to spit out adjusted efficiencies...which it then uses for the pythag formula (which is common knowledge).

[gw67]

pfr,

If it were any team other than Maryland would you be this wound up? Just joking! I've enjoyed the back and forth among some obviously smart and basketball wise posters. It sort of reminds me of the political debate on DBR after the Bush-Gore election. I can't remember all the folks involved (grump?, one of the TwoDukies were the leads as I recall). I felt then as I feel now, I don't want to enter the fray because my lack of knowledge/smarts will be demonstrated very quickly. Go Devils against St. Johns and Go Terps versus Georgia Tech this weekend.

gw67

[Jderf]

This is sort of my point. There will be anomalies with any model. Based on Maryland's performance this year, regardless of their wins and losses, I think the model is overrating Maryland. I do not think a team that has been collectively outscored by the best 10 opponents they've played (half their schedule), 7 of which are lower ranked, deserves to be ranked #14. If I had to guess, Maryland's overrating comes from a) too much weight given to blowouts against bad teams, and b) enhanced weight given to statistically outlying performances (that is, the fact that Maryland's defense adjusts to second best in the country).*

*I, of course, have no idea how the model is calibrated, so could be completely wrong about these two things.

I'm not taking a stand in this debate, since I don't really know which side I'd take. But I would like to point out that losing by a total of 26 over 10 games is losing by only 2.6 points per game. Just saying that it's not as big as it seems.

[Kedsy]

I'm not taking a stand in this debate, since I don't really know which side I'd take. But I would like to point out that losing by a total of 26 over 10 games is losing by only 2.6 points per game. Just saying that it's not as big as it seems.

Well that's true, although you could argue that losing by 2.6 when you should be winning by 3.9 (#17 Illinois' results against top 100 teams as reported by someone earlier on the thread) might be a bigger deal.

[pfrduke]

I'm not taking a stand in this debate, since I don't really know which side I'd take. But I would like to point out that losing by a total of 26 over 10 games is losing by only 2.6 points per game. Just saying that it's not as big as it seems.

I agree with this. I don't think they're vastly overrated - somewhere in the 25-35 range seems more right to me. I'm merely surprised that they end up as high as they do.

And the fact that they've been outscored at all (even if it's close) is noteworthy. Only four other teams in the top 30 (St. Mary's, Arizona, UNC, and UNLV) have failed to outscore their top-100 opponents. If you think top-100 is a flawed number, and just look at the 10 best opponent each team has played (about half the schedule for everyone). Maryland, UNC, and Marquette are the only top 30 teams not outscoring the most difficult half of their schedule. And of those three, Maryland at -26 is the worst; UNC is -5, Marquette is -9. So in terms of performance against the best half of the schedule, Maryland scores the worst of any team in the top 30.


pfr,

If it were any team other than Maryland would you be this wound up? Just joking!

I'm really just more puzzled by it than anything else. I'm somewhat curious as to why they end up so high, when it seems like neither their performance nor their results merits that ranking. It would be great for the conference if they played more like a #14 team going into the finish of the season.

[1 24 90]

Have you seen the Clemson - Florida St. score?

54-27 Clemson with 6:46 to go.

Wow!

[devildeac]

Have you seen the Clemson - Florida St. score?

54-27 Clemson with 6:46 to go.

Wow!

Final:

clemson 62
f$u 44

Wow is right.

[devildeac]

prince harry is beating the wolfpack by himself, 9-2. His team leads, 13-2.

Anyone seen Sid's coaching profile around recently:rolleyes:?

Of course it's still kinda early, but they are the 'pack anyhow AND playing on the the road...

[DukeWarhead]

State playing like a bunch of weenies against the baby blues. Good grief, Charlie Brown!

[loran16]

My god....they're so bad. Please, Fire him at halftime. This is embarrassing.

It's not like UNC is a juggernaut or something...NC State is just ugh.

[ncexnyc]

Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed that games that have the early 12 noon start usually have the road team stinking it up? When FSU beat us, they had Singleton and Kitchen having monster games. Since then it looks like they've never been able to go off at the same time.

Why does the wuzzpack stink it up so bad when they play the heels? It has to be a mental thing.

[loran16]

Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed that games that have the early 12 noon start usually have the road team stinking it up? When FSU beat us, they had Singleton and Kitchen having monster games. Since then it looks like they've never been able to go off at the same time.

Why does the wuzzpack stink it up so bad when they play the heels? It has to be a mental thing.

Eh, it's more like that teams are always worse on the road, and thus road teams seem to get blown out frequently...even more so when, like Clemson and FSU, the two teams are near equally matched.

[jjasper0729]

it's not just against the 'holes. I swear I've been screaming at that team to MOVE on offense and stop throwing up dribble drive jump shots without even attempting to get the ball to their best player, Smith. Leslie has all those accolades and he's shown flashes but my goodness, he is sloppy and looks like he doesn't care about anybody else on his team.

Watched the fsu/clemson game and yeah, why is it that people like Kitchen (fsu) and Gonzales (ncsu) always go off against us but then disappear against everybody else.


Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed that games that have the early 12 noon start usually have the road team stinking it up? When FSU beat us, they had Singleton and Kitchen having monster games. Since then it looks like they've never been able to go off at the same time.

Why does the wuzzpack stink it up so bad when they play the heels? It has to be a mental thing.

[Ping Lin]

On the Heels' first 18 missed shots, they collected *13* offensive rebounds.

That's just...ay.

[Jderf]

And the fact that they've been outscored at all (even if it's close) is noteworthy. Only four other teams in the top 30 (St. Mary's, Arizona, UNC, and UNLV) have failed to outscore their top-100 opponents. If you think top-100 is a flawed number, and just look at the 10 best opponent each team has played (about half the schedule for everyone). Maryland, UNC, and Marquette are the only top 30 teams not outscoring the most difficult half of their schedule. And of those three, Maryland at -26 is the worst; UNC is -5, Marquette is -9. So in terms of performance against the best half of the schedule, Maryland scores the worst of any team in the top 30.

Well then. I guess if you go and do something crazy like putting the numbers in context, I'm just going to have to agree with you. No fair. :D

[loran16]

Wake wins! Wake wins! It's unbelievable!

[CDu]

Wake wins! Wake wins! It's unbelievable!

I was going to say that this might be Wake's last real shot at a win, but didn't think even that was possible. Good for them. Bad for UVa.

[JasonEvans]

Do not sleep on Clemson. They are a very young team with a new coach. As a result, they lose some games they should not have early in the year (Michigan, SCarolina, Old Dominion). Most of us wrote them off after that.

But, then they went on a 8 game winning streak. Yeah, it was mostly against mediocre teams but there were a few top-100 wins in there, which ain't bad.

They lost 2 in a row in the ACC -- both on the road and both very close games. A couple little breaks and they could have won at UNC or especially at Maryland. They have followed that up with a pair of home wins against NCSt and now the domination of FSU.

It is clear to me that Clemson is a far better team today than they were 6 weeks ago. They are now 4-3 in the conference with a pair of winnable road games this coming week at Virginia and Ga Tech. They've also still got Miami and NC State on the road later in the season. It is not at all impossible to see them getting 3 more road wins, which would be huge.

Pom is predicting that they will go 9-7 in the ACC, but 10-6 or even (dare I say it) 11-5 is certainly not out of the question.

I really see Clemson coming on strong right now. They are sniffing an NCAA bid.

-Jason "Clemson will be ahead of FSU in the Pom rankings when they are revised today" Evans

[-jk]

Jason, I think your assessment of Clemson is pretty much on the mark, except the potential for a win at unc - we all kniw that's not in the cards... ;)

-jk

[Bob Green]

Halftime score: Virginia Tech 40, Miami 30. I cannot offer any analysis as I just turned the TV back on as I needed a break after the Duke game. I'm over it and looking forward to watching the 2nd half, then Maryland @ Georgia Tech game, followed by the Washington @ Washington State PAC 10 showdown.

[Klemnop]

Do not sleep on Clemson. They are a very young team with a new coach. As a result, they lose some games they should not have early in the year (Michigan, SCarolina, Old Dominion). Most of us wrote them off after that.

But, then they went on a 8 game winning streak. Yeah, it was mostly against mediocre teams but there were a few top-100 wins in there, which ain't bad.

They lost 2 in a row in the ACC -- both on the road and both very close games. A couple little breaks and they could have won at UNC or especially at Maryland. They have followed that up with a pair of home wins against NCSt and now the domination of FSU.

It is clear to me that Clemson is a far better team today than they were 6 weeks ago. They are now 4-3 in the conference with a pair of winnable road games this coming week at Virginia and Ga Tech. They've also still got Miami and NC State on the road later in the season. It is not at all impossible to see them getting 3 more road wins, which would be huge.

Pom is predicting that they will go 9-7 in the ACC, but 10-6 or even (dare I say it) 11-5 is certainly not out of the question.

I really see Clemson coming on strong right now. They are sniffing an NCAA bid.

-Jason "Clemson will be ahead of FSU in the Pom rankings when they are revised today" Evans

Looooooong post deleted. All I've got to say is, "Shhhhhhh!"

Clemson has had three close-but-not-quite road performances @FSU, @UNC and @UMd. If they can turn that into two ACC road wins vs. lower-tier teams this week then it is time to start talking seriously about what Clemson might or might not have. Big week for the Tigers. In fact, biggest week of the season. Home wins against the remaining schedule aren't going to amount to anything more than fluff. But road wins get people's attention. And they help in the standings to boot.

FWIW - Game-by-Game KenPom projects Clemson to 12-4.

Klem - trying hard not to get excited during a season that I promised myself I would not get emotionally invested in.

[Newton_14]

Looooooong post deleted. All I've got to say is, "Shhhhhhh!"

Clemson has had three close-but-not-quite road performances @FSU, @UNC and @UMd. If they can turn that into two ACC road wins vs. lower-tier teams this week then it is time to start talking seriously about what Clemson might or might not have. Big week for the Tigers. In fact, biggest week of the season. Home wins against the remaining schedule aren't going to amount to anything more than fluff. But road wins get people's attention. And they help in the standings to boot.

FWIW - Game-by-Game KenPom projects Clemson to 12-4.

Klem - trying hard not to get excited during a season that I promised myself I would not get emotionally invested in.

Klem, I just had to fess up and tell you this. Yesterday my elder brother whom I consider a basketball guru, was over at my house for my son's Bday party and we were watching the UNC/State game. We were discussing Lowe's non-coaching abilities, when my brother opined that "You know, I really like the new Clemson Coach. The guy knows what he is doing and they are very well coached" Big sigh.

So lesson learned here, is for me to watch a team play for more than one half before forming an opinion on the ability of their new coach. Still trying to get that size 8.5 Nike out of my mouth, that I inserted during the Clemson/UNC game thread discussion!:D

My sincerest apologies!:o Hopefully we will sometime in the near future have the opportunity to bail you out of the Orange County Jail for streaking in public. Hey, Texas won at Kansas this year for the first time ever, maybe that is a sign of hope for you!

[Bob Green]

Maryland hung on to defeat Georgia Tech 74-63 but Georgia Tech made it uncomfortable for the Terps down the stretch with a press defense that Maryland did not handle well at all. Tech's Glenn Rice, Jr. was called for an intentional foul with ~ 27 seconds left in the game as he continues to demonstrate an inability to control his emotions. That's a nice way of saying Rice continues to act like a punk.

[sagegrouse]

Maryland hung on to defeat Georgia Tech 74-63 but Georgia Tech made it uncomfortable for the Terps down the stretch with a press defense that Maryland did not handle well at all. Tech's Glenn Rice, Jr. was called for an intentional foul with ~ 27 seconds left in the game as he continues to demonstrate an inability to control his emotions. That's a nice way of saying Rice continues to act like a punk.

Maryland's defeat of Georgia Tech in Atlanta was its third road win (3-1) -- best in the conference. It would be among the leaders if it had done better at home, where it is 1-2, losing to BC and VT. OTOH, five of the remaining eight ACC games are at Comcast Center. I expect Maryland to do much better there, after -- wink, wink --Wednesday's Duke game, of course.

sagegrouse

[gw67]

The Devils game is discussed in a different thread. All I'll say is that it was difficult to watch.

Maryland won on the road against Georgia Tech. Regardless of what the DBR roundup stated, the Terps are 4-3 in the ACC and the Jackets are 3-4. I've watched a bunch of ACC basketball games on TV over the years and last night's game may have had a unique feature. The Terps made 25 field goals. The longest shot they made, as I recall, was a turnaround jumper in the key (about 8 feet). Not only didn't they make a three pointer but they didn't make a mid-range jump shot. Their scoring was nearly all layups and they still won. They also missed a bushel of layups. They are the worst jump shooting team in recent memory. They get most of their points inside and on breaks after turnovers.

There are a number of interesting games this coming week:

Duke@Md
UNC@BC
VT@BC
NCSU@Duke
FSU@UNC

gw67

[Klemnop]

Klem, I just had to fess up and tell you this. Yesterday my elder brother whom I consider a basketball guru, was over at my house for my son's Bday party and we were watching the UNC/State game. We were discussing Lowe's non-coaching abilities, when my brother opined that "You know, I really like the new Clemson Coach. The guy knows what he is doing and they are very well coached" Big sigh.

So lesson learned here, is for me to watch a team play for more than one half before forming an opinion on the ability of their new coach. Still trying to get that size 8.5 Nike out of my mouth, that I inserted during the Clemson/UNC game thread discussion!:D

My sincerest apologies!:o Hopefully we will sometime in the near future have the opportunity to bail you out of the Orange County Jail for streaking in public. Hey, Texas won at Kansas this year for the first time ever, maybe that is a sign of hope for you!

No apologies necessary. Whatever Brad Brownell is doing at Clemson is not perceptible to the casual basketball fan (of which I am one.) But, like you, the only feedback I get from anyone/everyone knowledgable that watches this team play is, "Man, that Brownell can COACH!" So I assume he's doing a good job.

Don't look now but KenPom has Clemson 4th in the league (up to 29 with VT dropping to 31.)

Huge, huge week for the Tigers. As much as has been accomplished in the last month it has been done almost entirely in the friendly confines of Littlejohn Coliseum (road win at CofC notwithstanding.) Good teams can win on the road. Now is the time. Contender or Pretender? We're about to find out.

Klem

[HCheek37]

My predictions for the week:
Va Tech > Ga Tech
NC State > Clemson
Miami > UNC
Duke > BC
Maryland > Virginia
Clemson > Flor St
UNC > NC State
Virginia > Wake
Duke > St Johns
Va Tech > Miami
Maryland > Ga Tech

Went 6-5 and pretty sure that only shows that the ACC is unpredictable. Home teams in ACC contests were 7-3.

[CDu]

Went 6-5 and pretty sure that only shows that the ACC is unpredictable. Home teams in ACC contests were 7-3.

When in doubt, take the home team this year. Also, when in doubt, pick against UVa and Wake this year.