Duke's strength of schedule

[UrinalCake]

What once appeared to be a fairly strong strength of schedule has since lost its luster, as our out-of-conference marquee victories - Kansas State and Michigan State - are looking less impressive. Those teams are now ranked #24 and #18, respectively, and that was before this week when KSU lost to #14 Missouri and MSU lost to #22 Illinois. The ACC is looking atrocious. It is possible that we could finish the season without having played a single ranked opponent. UNC or Maryland might sneak in there, or possibly St. John's, and it's possible that KSU and MSU will rebound.

Hypothetically, if we get to the end of the season with, say, three losses, and OSU, Kansas, and Syracuse also have three losses, could our weak schedule force us to be shipped out to the west? I know that doesn't matter as much with the pod system, but still, it's something to think about. I guess the other factor is that if Irving does come back as we all hope, would the Selection Committee take that into consideration and put less weight on any losses we incurred without him?

[-jk]

Frankly, this is one I won't get too worked up over. We have a season to play out, as does everyone else. All we can do is try to win the games in front of us and learn from our mistakes.

(And, yes, the NCAA usually gives some weight to injuries.)

-jk

[Bluedog]

While it's true that it's conceivable we might not have played any ranked opponents by the end of the regular season (Temple might be ranked too, by the way), if you look at KenPom's SOS, we are a respectable 36. Kansas has played the 54th hardest schedule, Ohio State 78, and Syracuse 23. Although as the season goes on, it's certainly possibly our SOS goes down while OSU goes up. In the end, I agree that if we have three losses and no quality wins, while Kansas has wins over A&M, Texas, and Mizzou, or Ohio State has wins over IL, Purdue, Minnesota, Wiscy, abd MSU, you'd have to give them the edge.

The selection committee does say they take into account injuries, but I feel like it's hard to discount 2/3 of a season due to an injured player. However, if Kyrie comes back at the beginning of March and we demolish opponents including the ACC tournament, the committee can't ignore that. Obviously, that's not necessarily or even likely to happen. If we end up being #1 in the west, that's sounds good to me. Things could be much much worse.

[sagegrouse]

What once appeared to be a fairly strong strength of schedule has since lost its luster, as our out-of-conference marquee victories - Kansas State and Michigan State - are looking less impressive. Those teams are now ranked #24 and #18, respectively, and that was before this week when KSU lost to #14 Missouri and MSU lost to #22 Illinois. The ACC is looking atrocious. It is possible that we could finish the season without having played a single ranked opponent. UNC or Maryland might sneak in there, or possibly St. John's, and it's possible that KSU and MSU will rebound.

Hypothetically, if we get to the end of the season with, say, three losses, and OSU, Kansas, and Syracuse also have three losses, could our weak schedule force us to be shipped out to the west? I know that doesn't matter as much with the pod system, but still, it's something to think about. I guess the other factor is that if Irving does come back as we all hope, would the Selection Committee take that into consideration and put less weight on any losses we incurred without him?

I don't think the current distribution of ranked teams by conference will last much longer. Here's how nutty it is, based on the AP poll:

Big East - 9 teams ranked
Big Ten - 6
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 1
SEC - 1
Pac 10 - 1
Other - 3 (St. Mary's. SD State, BYU)

Excuse me, but wasn't the Big Ten-ACC challenge a 6-5 contest?

After 10-12 games of conference play, I believe the Big East and Big Ten numbers will go down substantially, which means some other teams will enter the list, including ACC teams.

sagegrouse

[JasonEvans]

If we end up being #1 in the west, that's sounds good to me. Things could be much much worse.

With the Pod system, being #1 in the "West" is not nearly as much of a problem as it once was. You would only be sent "out West" one weekend.

We are virtually certain to be in Charlotte for our first two games. Should we make it out of that bracket, if we were in the West Regional we would play our Sweet 16 and Final 8 games in Anaheim. It is not like years ago when being in the West meant playing one weekend in Denver or Phoenix or LA and then playing in San Fran or Seattle or Portland the next.

-Jason "not much we can do about the SOS-- we thought Butler, MSU, and KSt would be top 5 or 10 when we scheduled them" Evans

[JasonEvans]

After 10-12 games of conference play, I believe the Big East and Big Ten numbers will go down substantially, which means some other teams will enter the list, including ACC teams.

If FSU gets a road win at Miami and, as expected, holds serve this weekend at home against BC, they will be ranked next week.

-Jason "had Carolina not gaacked the game at Tech, they might be ranked today" Evans

[wilson]

If FSU gets a road win at Miami and, as expected, holds serve this weekend at home against BC, they will be ranked next week.If Florida State actually follows through on both of these tasks, I frankly will be surprised. Both of those teams have been surprisingly decent so far this season, and it would be very typical Seminole basketball to piss one of those away even if they weren't.

[UrinalCake]

Yeah, also we only play them once this year, so we still wouldn't have a WIN over a ranked opponent 8-(

[gw67]

I like what the Duke staff does each year with the Devils OOC. They schedule one or two “good“ teams at Duke-friendly neutral sites and they play several top 100 teams at CIS. This is complemented by playing a good team from the Big Ten in the conference matchup and one or two good teams in an early season tournament. This OOC is generally well rated and combined with the ACC games gives the Devils a very good SOS.

Compare this with Maryland. The Terps scheduled Villanova and Temple, and played Pitt and Illinois in a tournament. So far so good since all four games were away or at a neutral site; however, they played Penn State in ACC-Big Ten matchup and they played a bunch of teams rated in the 200’s and 300’s at Comcast. They also play this pretty good team, Duke, twice in the ACC but the bottom line is that their SOS does not really reflect that they played some top teams. It seems to me that the Missouri Valley figured it out a few years ago. Play some top teams but primarily play top 150 teams in order to get a decent OOC rating. The crazy part is that most ACC teams can handle top 150 teams at home. They just need to do it.

gw67

[CDu]

If Florida State actually follows through on both of these tasks, I frankly will be surprised. Both of those teams have been surprisingly decent so far this season, and it would be very typical Seminole basketball to piss one of those away even if they weren't.

I agree. They are so mediocre offensively that they are always susceptible to an upset. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost either (or even both) of those games. I'd be fairly impressed if they actually went ahead and won both, actually.

[biscuit30]

What once appeared to be a fairly strong strength of schedule has since lost its luster, as our out-of-conference marquee victories - Kansas State and Michigan State - are looking less impressive. Those teams are now ranked #24 and #18, respectively, and that was before this week when KSU lost to #14 Missouri and MSU lost to #22 Illinois. The ACC is looking atrocious. It is possible that we could finish the season without having played a single ranked opponent. UNC or Maryland might sneak in there, or possibly St. John's, and it's possible that KSU and MSU will rebound.

Hypothetically, if we get to the end of the season with, say, three losses, and OSU, Kansas, and Syracuse also have three losses, could our weak schedule force us to be shipped out to the west? I know that doesn't matter as much with the pod system, but still, it's something to think about. I guess the other factor is that if Irving does come back as we all hope, would the Selection Committee take that into consideration and put less weight on any losses we incurred without him?

The teams were high when Duke beat them, not the problem of Duke what happens after that.

[JasonEvans]

If FSU gets a road win at Miami and, as expected, holds serve this weekend at home against BC, they will be ranked next week.

Despite all you skeptics trashing the notion, FSU is halfway there to the week I said they should have. The road win at Miami was huge for them.

-Jason "if they lay an egg against BC in Tally, I will lose a lot of faith in them" Evans

[ncexnyc]

Despite all you skeptics trashing the notion, FSU is halfway there to the week I said they should have. The road win at Miami was huge for them.

-Jason "if they lay an egg against BC in Tally, I will lose a lot of faith in them" Evans

I'm surprised that FSU was able to win at Miami with hardly any contribution point wise from Singleton and Kitchen

[CDu]

The teams were high when Duke beat them, not the problem of Duke what happens after that.

Not in the sense of measuring the resume at the end of the year. We shouldn't get bonus points simply because people overrated our opponents before the season.

The wins definitely seemed like good wins at the time. But that was before we knew much of anything about those teams. As the season is playing out, we're learning that the original impressions of those teams were inflated.

As long as we keep winning, it won't matter. Finishing the season with 2-3 losses and an ACC regular season title (and hopefully an ACC Tourney title) should still be enough to get us a #1 seed. But if we do manage to drop 4-5 games, we would start to fall in that gray area. And at that point, the fact that those marquee wins aren't as marquee anymore could haunt us.

Hopefully, we make it a moot point by simply winning enough the rest of the way to secure a #1 seed regardless of our SOS.

[CDu]

Despite all you skeptics trashing the notion, FSU is halfway there to the week I said they should have. The road win at Miami was huge for them.

-Jason "if they lay an egg against BC in Tally, I will lose a lot of faith in them" Evans

Well, they tried hard to drop the ball. Fortunately for them, their defense was slightly more to the good than their offense was to the bad. I will be impressed if they do survive this weekend's game to get to 5-1. The Miami game was the game I expected them to trip up on of the two. Surviving that one is a big step for them.

[hokieDEVIL83]

I had an argument about our SOS the other day with a typical hater. The fact is that when Duke made this schedule, it was one of the toughest in the country (in the top 3 I believe?). Though I do wish K would schedule a "true" road game before conference play, there is a method to his madness as he tries to simulate tournament environments. Its not Duke's fault that these teams have stunk it up so far. All they can do is play the teams in front of them. Winning these games is the priority and the rest will take care of itself.

[CDu]

I had an argument about our SOS the other day with a typical hater. The fact is that when Duke made this schedule, it was one of the toughest in the country (in the top 3 I believe?). Though I do wish K would schedule a "true" road game before conference play, there is a method to his madness as he tries to simulate tournament environments. Its not Duke's fault that these teams have stunk it up so far. All they can do is play the teams in front of them. Winning these games is the priority and the rest will take care of itself.

I think an important distinction needs to be made here. The bolded comment is irrelevant when it comes to evaluating the resumes at the end of the season. It just doesn't matter what people thought was the toughest schedule going into the season. It matters what was actually the toughest schedule after all the data have been collected (i.e., after they've played the season).

I think that perhaps people are mixing two discussions here. One is the discussion about evaluating resumes, and the other is about critiquing Duke's approach to scheduling. With regard to the first issue (resumes), what the schedule looked like at the beginning of the season is irrelevant (as I mention above). With regard to the second issues (scheduling), I agree that it's not Duke's fault that those teams turned out to be not as good as originally thought.

So it depends on the perspective through which you're considering the question. In any case, your last statement holds true. If we keep winning, it won't matter. It's only an issue if we lose enough to put us in that gray area.

[UrinalCake]

Yeah, when I started the thread I meant for it to be more of a discussion of evaluating our resume at the end of the year, and NOT a criticism of how we set the schedule. Clearly Kansas State and Michigan State were predicted to be tough games. Butler was also expected to be a quality opponent, although it was probably scheduled more for marketing reasons. At the end of the season though, the selection committee will look at our body of work and compare it to the other top teams and make their assessments accordingly.

It was interesting to see the stat they put up during the NC State game where even though Duke, FSU, BC, and UNC were all 3-1 in conference, Duke only had one loss overall and the other teams each had five. As many others have stated, as long as we continue winning we should be able to capture a #1 seed.

[MarkD83]

As mentioned above if Duke keeps winning then the SOS does not matter much. So overall how much does it matter.

Here are the "resume" criteria I always hear quoted and how I would rank them:

1. Overall record
2. RPI
3. Quality wins
4. Bad Losses
5. SOS
6. Team health (I'll explain below)

SOS, quality wins and bad losses are actually counted twice because they go into calculating RPI. Overall, this means to me that SOS is not that critical.

At the end of the year wins against MSU, KSU, Marquette and Butler are still quality wins because when we played them those teams were highly regarded. To make my point FSU beat the number 1 team in the nation when they beat Duke. Just beause Duke is number 5 now does not mean that FSU beat the number 5 team.

What may hurt Duke in the rankings is not what happens to MSU, KSU etc for the rest of the year, but the fact that Duke beat these teams with Kyrie. If he is not playing when the selection committee meets, these wins will be downgraded because Duke is missing a player that was instrumental in these wins.

[Bob Green]

How much consideration does the selection committee give to the last 10 games played? I've heard contradictory reports. Some say the last 10 games played isn't considered at all it is the overall body of work, while others say the last 10 games played is critical as the selection committee is looking for the teams playing best in March.

[4decadedukie]

I can easily remember comments and threads on DBR that decried our overly challenging strength-of-schedule just a few weeks ago. I know we can all remember the pre-Christmas succession of victories against Marquette, K State, Oregon, MSU, Butler and Bradley. I thought then -- and now -- that this was an amazing, daunting schedule (especially for the season's first phase). Given schedules' establishment long in advance, the top-tier stature of K State, Butler and MSU, and only two of these six games in Cameron, I am not overly concerned that the NCAA's Committee will find Duke's SoS wanting. Finally, while this appears to be a "down year" for the ACC, I am also reasonably certain most basketball fans appreciate the fact that teams necessarily play conference-dominated schedules.

[gep]

With the Pod system, being #1 in the "West" is not nearly as much of a problem as it once was. You would only be sent "out West" one weekend.

We are virtually certain to be in Charlotte for our first two games. Should we make it out of that bracket, if we were in the West Regional we would play our Sweet 16 and Final 8 games in Anaheim. It is not like years ago when being in the West meant playing one weekend in Denver or Phoenix or LA and then playing in San Fran or Seattle or Portland the next.

-Jason "not much we can do about the SOS-- we thought Butler, MSU, and KSt would be top 5 or 10 when we scheduled them" Evans

Random thought... (maybe naive and even not too intelligent) While I understand the meaning of a #1 seed... would it be better to be a #2 seed "closer" to home, rather than a #1 seed out west...:confused: or is a #1 seed "worth" it, seeing that some view a #1 seed out west to be somewhat of a disadvantage...

[UrinalCake]

#1 seed in the west is highly preferable to #2 seed in the east, for the sole fact that your opponent will be worse. Who you play is much more important than where you play. With that said, so much depends on matchups. It's entirely possible that a particular #8 seed (who we would project to play in the second round as a #1) is a tougher matchup for us than another #7 (who we would play if we were a #2) based on their particular style of play. Nevertheless, the higher the seed you are, the better chance you have of playing a weaker team.

[mkline09]

How much consideration does the selection committee give to the last 10 games played? I've heard contradictory reports. Some say the last 10 games played isn't considered at all it is the overall body of work, while others say the last 10 games played is critical as the selection committee is looking for the teams playing best in March.

I stopped trying to figure out the selection committee a while ago. If I were to guess I would think the whole body of work would be looked at for selection into the tournament and the last 10 games to help with final seeding. So if a team has the body of work to get in but is trending in a negative or positive direction in the last 10 then the committee would use that for its placement decisions.

[Saratoga2]

Yeah, also we only play them once this year, so we still wouldn't have a WIN over a ranked opponent 8-(

If FSU continues to do well we might face them again in the ACC tournament

[CDu]

As mentioned above if Duke keeps winning then the SOS does not matter much. So overall how much does it matter.

Here are the "resume" criteria I always hear quoted and how I would rank them:

1. Overall record
2. RPI
3. Quality wins
4. Bad Losses
5. SOS
6. Team health (I'll explain below)

SOS, quality wins and bad losses are actually counted twice because they go into calculating RPI. Overall, this means to me that SOS is not that critical.

At the end of the year wins against MSU, KSU, Marquette and Butler are still quality wins because when we played them those teams were highly regarded. To make my point FSU beat the number 1 team in the nation when they beat Duke. Just beause Duke is number 5 now does not mean that FSU beat the number 5 team.

What may hurt Duke in the rankings is not what happens to MSU, KSU etc for the rest of the year, but the fact that Duke beat these teams with Kyrie. If he is not playing when the selection committee meets, these wins will be downgraded because Duke is missing a player that was instrumental in these wins.

I'm pretty sure you've got the bolded part wrong. I believe that the committee looks at the team's wins based on where the team is ranked at the end of the season. So we'll get credit for quality wins against MSU, KSU, and Butler if those teams are still quality teams at the end of the season. We won't get credit for beating top-10 teams if they aren't top-10 teams. They'll likely still be "quality wins" (i.e., wins against top-25 or top-50), but they aren't going to be "marquee wins" (i.e., wins against the top-10).

This is especially true of rankings in November/December, which can be wildly off due to the lack of data about each team. We won't (and shouldn't) get extra credit for beating a team who was overrated by the media/coaches in the preseason. FSU's win is likely to remain a marquee win because we're likely to remain a top-5 team. But if we were to completely fall apart, that win will lose value for them too.

Also, your list includes several items that all come into play together. RPI, SOS, and quality wins and bad losses are all connected. SOS is inherently a factor in RPI and quality wins in addition to the comments you made above. SOS as a standalone measure is not all that important, but it is inherently important in considering the other factors. And I think the original poster wasn't talking about SOS itself as a standalone measure but rather more in the sense of whether or not the fact that the value of our best wins is decreasing is very important. SOS is just easier to say.

[House G]

Don't forget that Duke was placed in the easiest regional last year and back-doored a National Chanpionship. There will be pressure on the Committee to make sure this doesn't happen again. :)

[billyj]

I am curious. That is the team that went to Final Four last year, and returned most of their players, and a lot of people ranked them preseason #1 and they are at 13-7? Didn't Purdue, who just beat MSU by the way, suppose to suck with their star player Robin Hummel out? Yet Purdue is at 17-3 and 6-1 big ten.

And why is St Mary's ranked at #21, without a win against a ranked team? They just got a good beating by a Vanderbilt team, a very good team I thought but unranked at this moment.

Someone help me! :cool:

[Duke: A Dynasty]

MSU never seems to do good till tourny time. They were I believe a 5 seed last year. Do not sleep on them. They are still top 25 as well

Purdue was not supposed to suck at all. They still have 2 of their big 3. Before Hummels injury they were considered top 3 and after top 15. Top 15 is still elite imo.

Saint Mary is getting love mostly due to their tourny success last year and continued winning this year. To me the are overrated as well but time will tell.

[DUKIE V(A)]

MSU has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They are well coached, defensive minded, and talented. They are going to win their share of games and be a tough out in the NCAAs. Here's to hoping they are someone else's Sweet Sixteen tough out in the tournament. When the games get physical and tight in the tournament, they usually find a way to get it done with toughness.

Do not let the loss of Hummel fool you. Purdue is another tough, gutty, talented, well coached squad. They seem a bit stronger than MSU this year. Johnson seems like a First Team All-American to me, and Moore is also a stud. They are deep and team-oriented. Like MSU, Duke has had some good battles with them over the years and usually come out on top. However, Purdue is also a team I wouldn't mind seeing in someone else's bracket. They return many of the key players from last year's team which we beat in a hotly contested game in last year's Sweet Sixteen.

I am usually not a fan of Big Ten basketball, but this year it is a legit top conference (perhaps second to the Big East).

Don't know enough about St. Mary's to comment.

[4decadedukie]

DUKIE V(A)'s excellent post succinctly summarizes the current state of MSU and Purdue (IMHO).

[grossbus]

"When the games get physical and tight in the tournament, they usually find a way to get it done with toughness."

however, they are not showing that kind of physical, inside, take-it-to-the-hole play this year. they are settling for J's more often than not (and driving izzo crazy in the process, i think).

[gewwang]

Don't diss St. Mary's, you'll make Dick Vitale cry.

[hurleyfor3]

Maybe it's the "nonconference teams start to suck once we beat them" principle rearing its head once again. Them and Kansas State this year.

[loran16]

a big thing is that Kalin Lucas, MSU's star guard, has not looked the same since his surgery after last year. it's really hurt them.

[Chris Randolph]

Kalin Lucas has underachieved this season and I disagree with the notion it is because of his injury. He has played 20 games this year and many in years past, he is just not playing well.

Darrell Summers, in my opinion, is a cancer on that team. He seems to be selfish, doesn't play hard on defense and you can usually find another MSU player/Izzo scoffing with him during a game. Problem for Izzo is that when Summers is on, he is very good.

Mainly, I think MSU's success of last year might cost them this season. They made it to the Final Four as a 5 seed and they seem to have the attitude that they just assume they are good enough to do it all over again. I think when the year started they thought regardless of the regular season, they return all these players and will just make it to the Final Four because that is what they do. Not a good mentality. Wouldn't be surprised if they exit the tourney on the 1st weekend.

[Bob Green]

Kalin Lucas has underachieved this season and I disagree with the notion it is because of his injury.

A torn Achilles tendon is an especially debilitating injury, which is difficult to recover from so I agree with Loran16 that Lucas is being affected by his injury so his play has suffered.

[Wander]

It's an interesting thought experiment to wonder where Michigan State would be ranked in the preseason had Delvon Roe not ducked at exactly the right time in their game vs Maryland last year (rewatch the game's buzzer beating final play if you don't remember this).

[cptnflash]

It's an interesting thought experiment to wonder where Michigan State would be ranked in the preseason had Delvon Roe not ducked at exactly the right time in their game vs Maryland last year (rewatch the game's buzzer beating final play if you don't remember this).

Amen. No one would have given Michigan State a look this year if that shot didn't go in.

[78Devil]

It appears that no ACC other than Duke team will have any significant ranking, other than by beating us. We tried to schedule some great non-conference games -- Michigan State, Kansas State and Butler -- but each of those teams is flaming out.

Considering the above, how does our strength of schedule look now? How does it project to look if the ACC keeps being mediocre like it is? And, most importantly, how will that impact our seeding in the NCAA Tournament, assuming -- inevitably -- that we pick up a few more losses before that time in conference play?

Any thoughts from those of you who keep track of these kinds of things?

[hurleyfor3]

Our SOS should be looked at it in terms of the other teams vying for #1 seeds. We probably win the strength of schedule argument with Washington, BYU and SDSU and lose it with everyone else. That's with other things being equal; from there you have to consider the actual records. But if there are eight or nine teams right now with plausible claims to #1 seeds our SOS (current and likely future) is certainly no better than the middle of the pack.

I don't think our SOS will drop a whole lot, and may rise as we play Maryland and unc twice (or more) each.

A lot can change in the last week or two of the season. As you'll recall, we were never in the discussion for a #1 for most of last year.

[wilson]

Our SOS should be looked at it in terms of the other teams vying for #1 seeds. We probably win the strength of schedule argument with Washington, BYU and SDSU and lose it with everyone else...Whatever...we all know the selection committee will give Duke a sweetheart draw anyway.

[Bluedog]

Well, I think it depends what team we have at that point in time. As Coach K put in last night in the postgame comments, this team is 11-1. The other team was 8-0. If the team that was 8-0 comes back strong at the end of season and destroys opponents, the results of the 11-1 team aren't as important. They are certainly considered, but remember that the selection committee does take into consideration injuries. However, if this 11-1 team is the team we have when the brackets are released, there will more emphasis on the quality of opponents during this stretch which could harm us.

Coach K:
This team’s 11-1. Our other team was 8-0. We put the other team through a grueling 10-day period to test them and they tested well. And then we have to go in a different direction. So I’m very pleased with how this team is developing.

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22726&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=205084893

[CDu]

With regard to seeding, I don't think our strength of schedule is going to help us, but I don't think it will hurt us all that much either. The bigger issue will be whether or not we continue to win.

If we only have 2-3 losses by season's end and we win the ACC regular season and make the ACC final, we'll be a #1 seed. If we drop a few more, then our lack of marquee matchups and the weakness of the ACC may hurt us.

But that said, I still think we'll end up a #1 seed. The other big boys are going to lose some more games (or are already starting from far enough behind anywa), which will buoy our cause. That, and we're still pretty good. :)

[UrinalCake]

Jerry Palm (the RPI/bracketology guy) was on the local triangle radio station earlier this week, the same day that Coach K was on. He projects that the ACC would get six teams into the tournament if it started today. That seems a little absurd, but if it's true then perhaps our conference SOS is not as weak as we think.

[Kedsy]

Here's the AP top ten and each team's respective schedule strength. Obviously conference games will change this as the season moves on, but whoever said our schedule would be better than San Diego State and BYU at least so far is wrong.

If our SOS was #219 or something like that it might be a different story, but our SOS is not so far outside the other teams that I think it will have much, if any, effect. For example, if they penalize us they'd also have to penalize #1 Ohio State. Ultimately, if the rest of our resume looks like a #1 seed, I'd be very surprised if we slip because of our strength of schedule.


Team AP Rank RPI SOS Pom SOS Sag SOS
Ohio St 1 54 58 66
Pitt 2 26 33 34
Duke 3 59 59 62
SDSU 4 41 20 16
UConn 5 15 21 18
Kansas 6 14 35 32
Texas 7 28 29 44
V'Nova 8 30 30 24
Syracuse 9 19 26 36
BYU 10 20 37 19

[House G]

I believe we had the #4 SOS last year (2009-2010).

[rotogod00]

Couldn't really believe this when I saw it, but we haven't played an RPI top 25 team yet. The only other like teams in the RPI top 100 are George Mason (33), James Madison (69), and SMU (76).

We have, however, beaten the most 26-50 teams (5; tied with Georgetown)

[Bluedog]

Couldn't really believe this when I saw it, but we haven't played an RPI top 25 team yet. The only other like teams in the RPI top 100 are George Mason (33), James Madison (69), and SMU (76).

We have, however, beaten the most 26-50 teams (5; tied with Georgetown)

I see MSU at #24 according to realtimerpi.com...I guess it depends on what site you look at. (Also not sure if that counts their loss to Michigan last night or not).

[rotogod00]

I see MSU at #24 according to realtimerpi.com...I guess it depends on what site you look at. (Also not sure if that counts their loss to Michigan last night or not).

Using the ESPN one. They have MSU at 37, which includes last night's loss

[rotogod00]

Couldn't really believe this when I saw it, but we haven't played an RPI top 25 team yet. The only other like teams in the RPI top 100 are George Mason (33), James Madison (69), and SMU (76).

We have, however, beaten the most 26-50 teams (5; tied with Georgetown)

And it looks like the only potential top 25 games on the schedule are the two against Carolina (17) and the next one vs. St. John's (27)

[CDu]

Here's the AP top ten and each team's respective schedule strength. Obviously conference games will change this as the season moves on, but whoever said our schedule would be better than San Diego State and BYU at least so far is wrong.

If our SOS was #219 or something like that it might be a different story, but our SOS is not so far outside the other teams that I think it will have much, if any, effect. For example, if they penalize us they'd also have to penalize #1 Ohio State. Ultimately, if the rest of our resume looks like a #1 seed, I'd be very surprised if we slip because of our strength of schedule.


Team AP Rank RPI SOS Pom SOS Sag SOS
Ohio St 1 54 58 66
Pitt 2 26 33 34
Duke 3 59 59 62
SDSU 4 41 20 16
UConn 5 15 21 18
Kansas 6 14 35 32
Texas 7 28 29 44
V'Nova 8 30 30 24
Syracuse 9 19 26 36
BYU 10 20 37 19


Agreed. It's going to come down to us winning games. If we keep winning, we'll be a #1 seed. If we end up with 4-5 losses, things get a bit dicey.

The only way SoS will matter is if our record is basically the same as a few other teams on the list. At that point, it could hurt us, because we just don't have an impressive resume of wins. We have some wins that looked very impressive at the time, but they were against teams that weren't as good as people thought they were (it was just too early to know that yet).

But I think that ultimately we'll be fine. If we end up with 2-3 losses, we'll be a #1 seed regardless of the SoS.

[sagegrouse]

Agreed. It's going to come down to us winning games. If we keep winning, we'll be a #1 seed. If we end up with 4-5 losses, things get a bit dicey.

The only way SoS will matter is if our record is basically the same as a few other teams on the list. At that point, it could hurt us, because we just don't have an impressive resume of wins. We have some wins that looked very impressive at the time, but they were against teams that weren't as good as people thought they were (it was just too early to know that yet).

But I think that ultimately we'll be fine. If we end up with 2-3 losses, we'll be a #1 seed regardless of the SoS.

IMHO (where the H is often silent), the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee cares a lot about conference championships. Any team that wins the regular season and the tournament in the Big East, Big Ten, ACC or Big 12 is likely to be a #1 seed, barring horrible results out of conference.

Winning both is difficult in a major conference, and teams that don't win both regular season and tournament are damaged, either by losing to another team in the regular season or losing its last game prior to tournament selection.

sagegrouse

[bennett]

Before the start of the season, Duke’s schedule was advertised as one of the hardest in Division I basketball. In the non-conference slate, Duke had scheduled matches against the (pre-season) #2 and #3 teams in the country, Michigan State and Kansas State, as well as a top-25 matchup against Butler. In addition, they had night-in-night-out rigors of the ACC season to look forward to. It was going to be a tough season, by all accounts.

Through last night’s Boston College game, the Blue Devils have managed a record of 19-1 against that daunting schedule, which would be normally unquestionable. However, the season has not played out exactly as planned for Duke’s opponents. Kansas State and Butler have both dropped from the polls, while Michigan State is just barely managing a toe-hold on their ranking at #25. The ACC (which featured three ranked teams in the preseason, with many others knocking on the door) spent several weeks with only a single ranked team (Duke), which was considered by many as a historical low point for the conference. In sum, Duke’s signature early-season wins aren’t looking quite as impressive as they did at the time. Could the Blue Devils be overrated?

Continue reading (http://www.accrivals.com/articles/duke/dukes-strength-of-schedule-a-concern.html)

[uh_no]

They could go into the tournament without having played a legitimate sweet 16 contender.....that's a very scary though....now could one of the other acc teams turn into that? sure.....

[pfrduke]

Don't look now, but Michigan State is currently losing 30-10 to Iowa at the under 8 in the first half. I know there's a lot of game left to play, but that's shocking.

[Channing]

These were the two biggest games on Duke's calendar preseason, and possibly two of the biggest games in CBB. Its disheartening to see both teams flounder, with neither being a sure thing for the tourney. I am surprised to see this happen to an Izzo team (this now goes beyond normal slow starts) and Frank Martin's team, who always struck as a good, if maybe slightly psychotic, coach.

Has any other team in the country under achieved as badly as both of those two?

[94duke]

These were the two biggest games on Duke's calendar preseason, and possibly two of the biggest games in CBB. Its disheartening to see both teams flounder, with neither being a sure thing for the tourney. I am surprised to see this happen to an Izzo team (this now goes beyond normal slow starts) and Frank Martin's team, who always struck as a good, if maybe slightly psychotic, coach.

Has any other team in the country under achieved as badly as both of those two?

Yes. Last year's UNC. :p

[Billy Dat]

In last year's SI post-championship issue, with Scheyer on the cover, Luke Winn's predicted top 10 of the year had Duke, MSU, KState and Butler in the top 4. At that point, our schedule was looking beastly. You've got to add Butler to that list...all 3 teams may not make the big dance.

[dukelifer]

I wonder when the last time that Duke has played a team that was ranked in the top 25 at the start of February. That is pretty remarkable. If Fla State beats UNC- that streak may continue for a while longer.