loran16
01-16-2011, 11:47 PM
I posted this originally in the ACC Thread for the week from last week, but I think it could use it's own thread since it's not talking about the individual games.
Below are the current efficiency numbers for each ACC team in conference play thus far. These numbers used to be kept track of publically by basketball prospectus' John Gasaway, but he's currently putting them behind the site's new pay-wall, so I'll be posting them here all season.
These numbers go beyond win-loss record to, over time, show who truly is the best, and then second best team in the ACC team, and so forth. They're better at doing so than win-loss records, as they truly show which teams are actually beating up on opponents and which are lucky to skate by. Early on of course, they're skewed by outliers (games against Wake Forest), but they're still quite interesting.
The relevant numbers are as follows:
Tempo: Possessions per Game (A measure of how up-pace a team plays.)
Offensive Efficiency: Amount of points scored by a team's offense per possession.
Defensive Efficiency: Amount of points allowed by a team's defense per possession.
Efficiency Margin: The amount a team will outscore it's opponent per 1-possession-each (basically O Efficiency minus D Efficiency)
For ease of reading, I've added a final column, which shows how the Efficiency Margin of each team translates into that team's average margin of victory (or defeat) in an average ACC game (67 Possessions). This is just for display purposes....a team like Duke which plays faster than that will win by more, while a team like UVA which plays slower will win by less.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_jpHBaQhAbHI/TTPGdT7wAtI/AAAAAAAAALI/9R-eAkvJDXc/s1600/ACC%2BStats%2BWeek%2B2-Start.png
Thoughts:
1. There are good ACC Teams. There are bad ACC Teams. And then there's Wake Forest. The Deacons are EPICLY bad, as you can see by the gap in average-margin-of-victory/efficiency-margins. For reference, the worst major conference team last year, Indiana, had a -0.20 efficiency margin, which means Wake is 1.5 times WORSE than that team. YIKES! 0-16 is a definite possibility for the Deacs.
2. Because Wake is so bad, teams that play them are inflated temporarily. Currently, that's VT (TOP OF THE STANDINGS!), MD, and NC State. Of course, the fact that NC State is still negative in efficiency despite having a game against Wake is NOT a good sign for State's long-term prospects (The same can be said of Maryland). Still, VT is NOT quite as good as their efficiency ranking implies, but at least they've taken advantage of beaten Wake in a way that MD and NC State haven't.
3. Clemson and BC are surprise teams in the top 1/3. Clemson's ranking is mainly because of an insane shooting night (83.3 eFG%) against GT, but well GT isn't amazingly terrible, and while it was probably a fluke, it's still a pretty damn good performance. BC's been doing it the same in every game...great offense, terrible D. (The same appears true of Clemson).
4. Only 3 teams in the ACC - Duke, VTech, and FSU - have above average Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies. Average O and D efficiencies in college basketball tend to be around 1.00. These three teams are the only ones who are both scoring at a greater rate and preventing opponents from doing so. And really, none of the three are doing so by much (except maybe VT, who has the edge in having played against Wake).
Overall, so far it's a wide open race between 11 teams in the conference. Only Wake stands out as truly terrible and as unlikely to upset anyone.
Below are the current efficiency numbers for each ACC team in conference play thus far. These numbers used to be kept track of publically by basketball prospectus' John Gasaway, but he's currently putting them behind the site's new pay-wall, so I'll be posting them here all season.
These numbers go beyond win-loss record to, over time, show who truly is the best, and then second best team in the ACC team, and so forth. They're better at doing so than win-loss records, as they truly show which teams are actually beating up on opponents and which are lucky to skate by. Early on of course, they're skewed by outliers (games against Wake Forest), but they're still quite interesting.
The relevant numbers are as follows:
Tempo: Possessions per Game (A measure of how up-pace a team plays.)
Offensive Efficiency: Amount of points scored by a team's offense per possession.
Defensive Efficiency: Amount of points allowed by a team's defense per possession.
Efficiency Margin: The amount a team will outscore it's opponent per 1-possession-each (basically O Efficiency minus D Efficiency)
For ease of reading, I've added a final column, which shows how the Efficiency Margin of each team translates into that team's average margin of victory (or defeat) in an average ACC game (67 Possessions). This is just for display purposes....a team like Duke which plays faster than that will win by more, while a team like UVA which plays slower will win by less.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_jpHBaQhAbHI/TTPGdT7wAtI/AAAAAAAAALI/9R-eAkvJDXc/s1600/ACC%2BStats%2BWeek%2B2-Start.png
Thoughts:
1. There are good ACC Teams. There are bad ACC Teams. And then there's Wake Forest. The Deacons are EPICLY bad, as you can see by the gap in average-margin-of-victory/efficiency-margins. For reference, the worst major conference team last year, Indiana, had a -0.20 efficiency margin, which means Wake is 1.5 times WORSE than that team. YIKES! 0-16 is a definite possibility for the Deacs.
2. Because Wake is so bad, teams that play them are inflated temporarily. Currently, that's VT (TOP OF THE STANDINGS!), MD, and NC State. Of course, the fact that NC State is still negative in efficiency despite having a game against Wake is NOT a good sign for State's long-term prospects (The same can be said of Maryland). Still, VT is NOT quite as good as their efficiency ranking implies, but at least they've taken advantage of beaten Wake in a way that MD and NC State haven't.
3. Clemson and BC are surprise teams in the top 1/3. Clemson's ranking is mainly because of an insane shooting night (83.3 eFG%) against GT, but well GT isn't amazingly terrible, and while it was probably a fluke, it's still a pretty damn good performance. BC's been doing it the same in every game...great offense, terrible D. (The same appears true of Clemson).
4. Only 3 teams in the ACC - Duke, VTech, and FSU - have above average Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies. Average O and D efficiencies in college basketball tend to be around 1.00. These three teams are the only ones who are both scoring at a greater rate and preventing opponents from doing so. And really, none of the three are doing so by much (except maybe VT, who has the edge in having played against Wake).
Overall, so far it's a wide open race between 11 teams in the conference. Only Wake stands out as truly terrible and as unlikely to upset anyone.