PDA

View Full Version : Projecting the ACC



JasonEvans
01-14-2011, 01:03 PM
So, I was perusing Mr. Pomeroy's numbers this morning and I noticed something interesting...

He is projecting the ACC to break exactly as I hoped, with a few teams rising to the top and a bunch moving to the bottom. This configuration would allow the conference to get a maximum number of NCAA bids, perhaps as many as 5.

Here is how he projects the ACC after last night's games--

Duke 13-3
Maryland 11-5
UNC 11-5
Va Tech 10-6
FSU 10-6
BC 9-7
Clemson 9-7
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
Virginia 5-11
Ga Tech 4-12
Wake 2-14

Despite the struggles of the conference in the early season, I think Va Tech and FSU would make it if they get to 10-6 in the league, especially with a few extra bids out there this season with the expanded tournament. It hels FSU that they now have an elite win on their resume (grrrrrrrrr). Carolina and Maryland are mortal locks to get into the tournament if they get to 11-5.

-Jason "so, do I merge this with Dork Poll tracking or with 2nd best in ACC thread?" Evans

JasonEvans
01-14-2011, 01:13 PM
By the way, Pom's projections come to an aggregate record of 97-95, which is due to rounding error. In reality we must subtract one win and add one loss to make this projection work. I say we just take a win away from Wake. The odds they find a way to win 2 games seems slim to me at this point anyway.

-Jason "Pom projects Wake to go 9-22 on the season-- the first ACC team with less than 10 wins since a certain club won only 8 in 2002" Evans

superdave
01-14-2011, 01:36 PM
By the way, Pom's projections come to an aggregate record of 97-95, which is due to rounding error. In reality we must subtract one win and add one loss to make this projection work. I say we just take a win away from Wake. The odds they find a way to win 2 games seems slim to me at this point anyway.

-Jason "Pom projects Wake to go 9-22 on the season-- the first ACC team with less than 10 wins since a certain club won only 8 in 2002" Evans

You should take the win away from UNC!

UNC and VT do seem very even. I'd expect VT to be a very tough team at home. Will any of their injured guys get back to make a difference?

Also, I think Maryland's senior class is weak and their guards are not upper-half of the ACC caliber. Granted that's my opinion, but 11-5 for them would be really impressive.

Bob Green
01-14-2011, 03:10 PM
I'm not ready to give up on NC State yet. Coach Lowe needs to make a move at point guard and insert Ryan Harrow into the starting line-up. Speaking of needed point guard moves, Coach Roy Williams really needs to give the keys to Kendall Marshall. I watched every second of Carolina's win over VT and Marshall played a spectacular game. Fortunately for the rest of the ACC, Ol' Roy is way too stubborn to admit he was wrong about Drew II so Marshall will most likely continue to split time with his obviously inferior teammate.

rasputin
01-14-2011, 03:24 PM
You should take the win away from UNC!

UNC and VT do seem very even. I'd expect VT to be a very tough team at home. Will any of their injured guys get back to make a difference?

Also, I think Maryland's senior class is weak and their guards are not upper-half of the ACC caliber. Granted that's my opinion, but 11-5 for them would be really impressive.

Last night's graphic listed 4 guys out for the season for various reasons.

devildeac
01-14-2011, 11:01 PM
I'm not ready to give up on NC State yet. Coach Lowe needs to make a move at point guard and insert Ryan Harrow into the starting line-up. Speaking of needed point guard moves, Coach Roy Williams really needs to give the keys to Kendall Marshall. I watched every second of Carolina's win over VT and Marshall played a spectacular game. Fortunately for the rest of the ACC, Ol' Roy is way too stubborn to admit he was wrong about Drew II so Marshall will most likely continue to split time with his obviously inferior teammate.

I'm kinda counting on ol' roy not reading this board and keeping LD2 at the helm. (do ya like the naval reference, Bob?;))

Olympic Fan
01-15-2011, 11:37 AM
Despite the struggles of the conference in the early season, I think Va Tech and FSU would make it if they get to 10-6 in the league, especially with a few extra bids out there this season with the expanded tournament. It hels FSU that they now have an elite win on their resume (grrrrrrrrr). Carolina and Maryland are mortal locks to get into the tournament if they get to 11-5.


I'm not as confident that 10-6 in the ACC will get Va Tech in the field -- even the expanded field (three extra wild card slots). They missed with a 10-6 ACC record last year and according to post-selection statements by the committee members, they weren't even close.

Their OOC schedule is much better this year, but here's the problem -- they didn't win any of those games ... well, they did beat Oklahoma State (61 in Pomeroy), but that was with Hudson and Raines in the lineup (just as NC State might get a break from committee on the teams they lost to without Tracy Smith, VPI will lose credit for the wins it got with players who are no longer in the lineup*).

Last year's 10-6 ACC record didn't help them because they had an extremely unbalanced schedule that allowed them to pile up a lot of wins against the bottom of the conference without beating any of the league powers. Guess what, they've got the same imbalance working for them this year. One reason that Pomeroy projects them at 10-6 is that they get six games against the league's bottom three teams (although they've already lost one of those) and just five games combined against the league's top FOUR teams (Duke, UNC, FSU and only Maryland twice).

10-6 MIGHT do it for the Hokies -- IF one of those 10 is a victory over Duke. Without it, they won't have a top 25 win and may not have a top 50 win.

On the other hand, FSU is in better shape with the victory over you-know-who. They also have a victory over Baylor, who has been disappointing this season, but is better than anybody VPI has beaten. All-in-all, if they can finish 10-6 in the ACC, they'll get in.

* Note: the same factor that could help NC State and hurt VPI on selection sunday could work for or against Duke it its bid to be a No. 1 seed. If Kyrie Irving does NOT return, Duke loses some degree of credit for the wins with him in the lineup ... if he does return and show that he's able to play again, then they will discount (to some degree) any losses in his absence. The point is that the committee is trying to judge the team on what it is on selection sunday, not what it was in December.

For Va Tech, that's bad news because none of the five players they have lost (four to injury, one to transfer) will be back this season. For State it's good news, because Tracy Smith is back and playing effectively. We don't know yet whether it will be good news or bad news for Duke.

devildeac
01-16-2011, 04:24 PM
I'm kinda counting on ol' roy not reading this board and keeping LD2 at the helm. (do ya like the naval reference, Bob?;))

Bob seemed to like the naval reference so I'll try another one. You do realize that just like carolina at one time, he doesn't give a ship about Duke.:):rolleyes:

cptnflash
01-16-2011, 06:14 PM
Speaking of needed point guard moves, Coach Roy Williams really needs to give the keys to Kendall Marshall. I watched every second of Carolina's win over VT and Marshall played a spectacular game. Fortunately for the rest of the ACC, Ol' Roy is way too stubborn to admit he was wrong about Drew II so Marshall will most likely continue to split time with his obviously inferior teammate.

Every time I watch UNC play, I am overjoyed that we have a coach that understands the importance of playing your best players. UNC almost lost to Virginia Tech at home, and Tyler Zeller only played 29 minutes despite not being in foul trouble. If Roy had any sense at all, Zeller would play 38 minutes a night (foul situation permitting), Henson would play 35 (sitting out the last few because he can't hit free throws), Barnes would play 35, Marshall and Strickland would play 30, and the rest of the guys would fight for what's left. Ol' Roy is very lucky that his insistence on overutilizing inferior players did not cost him a conference home game.

gofurman
01-16-2011, 07:07 PM
where do you see UNC's 5 losses?

at Duke... and ? every time I watch them they seem to find a way to win.\

maybe at fsu, at clemson, at bc, maryland, at miami, vs maryland, vs duke are the chances

but say they win half / lose half of those coin flips they could easily go 12-4 I think

-bdbd
01-16-2011, 10:21 PM
where do you see UNC's 5 losses?

at Duke... and ? every time I watch them they seem to find a way to win.\

maybe at fsu, at clemson, at bc, maryland, at miami, vs maryland, vs duke are the chances

but say they win half / lose half of those coin flips they could easily go 12-4 I think

I predict a loss at Ga Tech! (Oh, er, that already happened...)

If you saw their "performance" in Atlanta, this squad could struggle to reach the upper-half of the ACC. Serious ball handling issues. No cohesion. Effort is spotty. Sure, they have talent, but it seems to come and go. And very little of it is in the backcourt. So, this is a squad that might threaten even a Duke (at CH), and then turn around and lose to Clemson at home or some such. They don't seem overly confident and are obviously young, so victories away could be hard to come by this year. So 5 losses seems about right, and I'd really predict 6 or 7.

Right now FSU, MD and maybe VT seem to be finding their footing a bit in-conference.

gofurman
01-16-2011, 10:24 PM
I predict a loss at Ga Tech! (Oh, er, that already happened...)

If you saw their "performance" in Atlanta, this suad could struggle to the upper-half of the ACC. Serious ball handling issues. No cohesion. Effort was spotty. Sure, they have talent, but it seems to come and go. So, this is a squad that might threaten even a Duke, and then turn around and lose to Clemson or some such. They don't seem overly confident and are obviously young, so victories away could be hard to come by this year. So 5 losses seems about right, and I'd really predict 6 or 7.

Right now FSU, MD and maybe VT seem to be finding their footing a bit in-conference.

i am glad i missed on UNC losing at GT. i will take that anytime. if you saw gt play at clemson you will know why i didn't see this one coming.

loran16
01-16-2011, 10:40 PM
i am glad i missed on UNC losing at GT. i will take that anytime. if you saw gt play at clemson you will know why i didn't see this one coming.

The Clemson loss was misleading to say the least. Clemson shot lights out (eFG% of 83%)...and by lights out, I mean Clemson had the BEST SHOOTING NIGHT AGAINST A MAJOR CONFERENCE FOE of ANY MAJOR CONFERENCE TEAM IN THE LAST SIX YEARS.

That should only have been like a 12 point loss if Clemson wasn't insane, and it was AT Clemson.

SupaDave
01-16-2011, 10:42 PM
I predict a loss at Ga Tech! (Oh, er, that already happened...)

If you saw their "performance" in Atlanta, this squad could struggle to reach the upper-half of the ACC. Serious ball handling issues. No cohesion. Effort is spotty. Sure, they have talent, but it seems to come and go. And very little of it is in the backcourt. So, this is a squad that might threaten even a Duke (at CH), and then turn around and lose to Clemson at home or some such. They don't seem overly confident and are obviously young, so victories away could be hard to come by this year. So 5 losses seems about right, and I'd really predict 6 or 7.

Right now FSU, MD and maybe VT seem to be finding their footing a bit in-conference.

One correction - this team is NEVER losing to Clemson at home. I will choke on a chicken biscuit in Time-out before that happens...

gw67
01-17-2011, 08:21 AM
Supa,

I agree with all your comments. How a team with six consensus top 25 players coming out of high school (and two others who were top 75) can play so poorly and look so bad is amazing. It appears that Williams recruited a bunch of youngsters who are a bad fit for his offensive and defensive schemes. Some of them may have been overhyped by the recruiting gurus as well.

gw67